how much is medicaid really worth? - forbes · how much is medicaid really worth? - forbes 6/12/15...

34
6/12/15 11:18 AM How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes Page 1 of 34 http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/ JUN 10, 2015 @ 1:21 PM 878 VIEWS How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? Opinion / 10 Stocks to Buy Now One of the mos imp com of Oba is the expa of Med In thos state FULL BIO Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. John C. Goodman CONTRIBUTOR I offer market-based healthcare solutions. FOLLOW ON FORBES (118)

Upload: dodien

Post on 25-Apr-2018

215 views

Category:

Documents


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 1 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

JUN 10, 2015 @ 1:21 PM 878 VIEWS

How Much Is MedicaidReally Worth?

Opinion/10 Stocks to Buy Now

OneofthemostimportantcomponentsofObamaCareistheexpansionofMedicaid.Inthosestates

FULL BIO

Opinions expressed byForbes Contributors aretheir own.

John C. GoodmanCONTRIBUTOR

I offer market-basedhealthcare solutions.

FOLLOW ON FORBES (118)

Page 3: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 3 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

cash?Anewstudysaystheywouldtakethecash.Infact,ifyouofferedtheMedicaidpopulationalittlemorethan20centsonthedollar,theaverage

Page 4: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 4 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

enrolleewouldtakethecash.

ThestudyisbyAmyFinkelstein(MIT),NathanielHendren(Harvard)andErzoF.P.Luttner(Dartmouth),threeofthenation’spremierhealtheconomists.It

Page 5: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 5 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

isbasedonnewevidencefromtheOregonMedicaidexpansion–aneventthathasprovidedsocialscientistswithawealthofdatanotpreviouslyavailable.

Theauthors

Page 6: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 6 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

usealotofhairymathematicstocometotheirconclusionsandIwon’tsubjectmyreaderstothat.Soletmegivealayman’sinterpretationofwhatthe

Page 7: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 7 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

resultsmean–withtheunderstandingthatIwillfallfarshortoftechnicalexactness.

Turnsout,theuninsuredarenotreallyuninsured.Instead,theyareinsured“implicitly.”

Page 8: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 8 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

Whentheygetmedicalcaretheydon’tpaythefullprice.Infactseveralpreviousstudiesestimatethattheuninsuredpayabout20percentofthecostoftheir

Page 9: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 9 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

care.Butifthisisgenerallytrueandiftheuninsuredknowit istrue,whentheyseekmedicalcaretheywillknowthecosttothemwillbe20

Page 10: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 10 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

percent.

Putanotherway,theuninsuredhavean

EYVoice

Video:Angels,UnicornsAndTheFutureOfUSVentureCapital

Forbes

Page 11: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 11 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

implicitinsurancecontractwitha20percentcopayment.Nowageneraleconomicprinciplethatcoversallinsuranceisthatpatientswilltendtoconsumecareuntilitsvalueto

Page 12: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 12 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

themisworthitscosttothem.Soifhealthcarecostsapatient20centsonthedollar,thepatientwilltendtoconsumeituntilit isworth

19 SHARES

20 TWEETS

23 SHARES

COMMENTNOW

Page 13: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 13 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

20centsonthedollar.

IntheOregonMedicaidexpansion,thosewhoremaineduninsuredspentabout$2,700perpersoneachyearonmedicalcare.Thenewlyenrolledin

SHARE ON G+

http://onforb.es/1JFFwVX

Page 14: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 14 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

Medicaidspentabout$3,600–or$900more.Thisisconsistentwitheconomictheory.When$1ofcarebecomesfreeinsteadofcosting20cents,peopleobtainmoreof

Page 15: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 15 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

it.Butthevalueofthisadditionalcareislikelytobelessthan20centsonthedollar.

Recommendedby

Forbes

MOST POPULAR

Photos: The World's

Page 16: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 16 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

Therewere75,000peopleonthewaitinglistforMedicaidcoverageinOregon.Ofthese,about35,000wereselectedbylottery.Sincetheenrolleeswere

Photos: The World'sHighest-Paid Athletes 2015

Page 17: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 17 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

selectedrandomly,thosewithMedicaidandthosewhoremaineduninsuredwereseparatedonlybychance.Thiscreatedanidealexperimentinwhichsocialscientistswereabletostudythe

Page 18: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 18 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

effectsofMedicaid.

OnefindingthathasalreadybeenwidelyreportedisthateventhoughMedicaidexpansionledtomoreconsumptionofhealthcare,theadditionalcareappears

Page 19: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 19 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

tohavehadlittleeffectontheenrollees’physicalhealthAnotherfindingthatwasnotwidelyreportedisthat40percentofthosewhowereofferedMedicaidcoveragedidn’t

Page 20: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 20 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

Page 1 / 2

Continue

SeeAlso:

bothertoenroll!

Page 22: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 22 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

comments in the last 24 hours

King v.Burwell: HowImportant IsObamacare'sIndividualMandate?

John Graham, Contributor

Later this month, theSupreme Court will likelyannounce its decision onKing v. Burwell, the lawsuitwhich asserts tax creditscurrently being paid tohealth insurers in 34 to 37states that use the federalhealth insurance exchangeare illegal. If the SupremeCourt stops these tax credits,over six million people willbe required to pay the fullpremiums for theirObamacare policies. Thiswill cause...

READ MORE

Page 23: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 23 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

+2 comments in the last 24 hours

IMF QuitsGreek DebtTalks; NoDeal In SightDue ToContinuingDisagreements

Tim Worstall, Contributor

This doesn't bode well for asuccessful resolution to theGreek debt crisis: all thenegotiators have flown homein a huff because no one istaking them seriously. Thehas gone back toWashington, the Greeksback to Athens and theEuropeans are left hangingaround Brussels on theirown. It is, of course,somewhat difficult tonegotiate an agreementwhen no one is still there todo any negotiating....

READ MORE

Active on LinkedIn

Page 24: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 24 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

The FantasyThatObamaCare'Is Working'

Steve Moore, Contributor

[ObamaCare] is working…We haven’t had a lot ofconversation about thehorrors of Obamacarebecause none of them havecome to pass. You got 16million people who’ve gottenhealth insurance. It hasn’thad an adverse effect onpeople who already hadhealth insurance. Theoverwhelming majority ofthem are satisfied with thehealth insurance… The costshave come in...

READ MORE

BrandVoice What is this?

TeradataVoice

Page 25: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 25 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

TeradataVoice: The NewAnalyticsProfessional:Landing AJob In TheBig Data Era

Bill Franks, Teradata

Along with the usual pompand celebration of collegecommencements and highschool graduationceremonies we’re seeingnow, the end of the schoolyear also brings the usualbrooding and questionsabout careers and next steps.Analytics is no exception,and with the big data surgecontinuing to fuel lots ofanalytics jobs and sub-specialties, the careerquestions keep coming. Sohere are...

READ MORE

Activeon

Page 26: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 26 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

Facebook

On MarijuanaLegalization,MostPresidentialCandidatesAgree WithFiorina, NotChristie

Jacob Sullum, Contributor

This week New Jersey Gov.Chris Christie reiterated hisintention to crack down onmarijuana in states that havelegalized it if he is electedpresident. In an interview onFace the Nation last Sunday,Christie answered “yes”when asked whether hewould “return the federalprosecutions in these states,”“yes” when asked if he would“go after” marijuana,...

READ MORE

Page 27: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 27 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

See Also

Healt

Affor

Best

Elder

Senio

Elderl

Elder

Conci

ActiveonLinkedIn

Why Are The2016ObamacareRateIncreases SoLarge?

Capital Flows, Contributor

You might recall that I havesaid we wouldn’t see the realObamacare rates until the2017 prices are published inmid-2016. By then healthplans will finally have had acouple of years of credibleclaim data and two of the

Page 28: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 28 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

three "3 Rs" reinsuranceprovisions subsidizing theinsurance companies willhave gone away. I have alsomade the argument thatafter two years theObamacare enrollment...

READ MORE

Active on Twitter

MonetaryPolicy Hasn'tHelpedEuropeanUnemployment But It's NotThe Cause OfThis Evidence

Tim Worstall, Contributor

We can definitely say thatthe ECB's monetary policyhasn't helpedunemployment in theeurozone. For goodnesssake, they have been makingthe same mistake theFederal Reserve did in the1930s. Thinking that lowinterest rates are equivalent

Page 29: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 29 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

to a loose monetary policy.They even raised interestrates at the depths of theGreat Recession. And onlyjust recently have theystarted doing thequantitative...

READ MORE

ActiveonLinkedIn

If

Apple'sFoxconn WillMove ToIndia ThenLA's $15MinimumWage WillCost Jobs

Tim Worstall, Contributor

Mark Perry makes a usefulpoint about the incoherenceevident in parts of thecommentariat. For it really

Page 30: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 30 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

does tend to be the samepeople who complain aboutcompanies offshoring jobsand also insisting that a risein the minimum wage won'tcost jobs. It's possible to doone or the other, if youcaveat, hem and haw,enough. But to be insistingupon both being true isincoherent. Sure, we've allheard...

READ MORE

BrandVoice What is this?

TeradataVoice: Is Your DataLying To You?

Oliver Ratzesberger,

Teradata

As companies strive tobecome more agile in today’sever-changing businessworld, a common theme is

Page 31: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 31 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

getting data faster and, inturn, getting insights fromdata faster. That’s where thenotion of schema-freequeries often comes in,where all sorts ofunstructured data goes intofiles in Hadoop (HadoopDistributed File System w/e.g. HIVE or Drill querying),SQL and NoSQL databasesthat...

READ MORE

Activeon

Facebook

NorthCarolinaLawmakersBuild UponHistoric TaxReform

Patrick Gleason,

Contributor

Page 32: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 32 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

Republican lawmakers whocontrol the North CarolinaSenate put forth a proposaltoday that would build uponthe historic tax reformsigned into law by Gov. PatMcCrory (R) in 2013. Theproposal unveiled by senateleaders this afternoon inRaleigh would providenearly $2 billion in state taxrelief to individuals, families,and employers across theTar Heel State over the nextfive years. North Carolina...

READ MORE

Activeon

Facebook

Ted Cruz AndThe FalseNarrative OfChristianPersecution

Rick Ungar, Contributor

Page 33: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 33 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

If you ask Senator Ted Cruz(R-Texas) about the state ofreligious freedom inAmerica, you are likely to getan earful on how Christiansin this country are beingforced to live through someterrible era of religiouspersecution. Speaking at theFaith and Freedom Coalitionsummit in Iowa, Cruz toldhis audience that "There is aliberal fascism that isdedicated to going afterbelieving Christians...

READ MORE

+861 views in the last 24 hours

A $15MinimumWage WouldPut AllAmericansInto The 1%

Tim Worstall, Contributor

I've been trying to thinkthrough a way of reallygetting across the point thata $15 an hour minimumwage for the US is really just

Page 34: How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes · How Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes 6/12/15 11:18 AM ... Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning 2 weeks ago fool.com The Motley

6/12/15 11:18 AMHow Much Is Medicaid Really Worth? - Forbes

Page 34 of 34http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2015/06/10/how-much-is-medicaid-really-worth/

More Trending

Stories

too high. And I may havefound it: a $15 per hourminimum wage would putall workers in the US intothe global 1% by income.Well, all those workers in theUS who managed to keeptheir jobs when there's a $15an hour minimum wage atleast. Given that the USlabour force...

READ MORE