how on earth did we get here? - cmaa - home · –regional and coastal gaming trends –data...
TRANSCRIPT
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HOW ON EARTH DID WE GET HERE? Trends, insights, ideas and answers
1
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• Set the table with some insights, data and observations about current market conditions across 5 different topics – Headwinds, wider market trends
– Rising costs and the rise of Pubs
– Regional and coastal gaming trends
– Data overload and the evolving gaming floor
– Future of country clubs
• Get feedback after each topic from our panel
• Audience participation
2
The goal of today
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MARC EISENHAUER KARREN HOWE DAN PERKISS
JOHN GOULD CRAIG BUTLER
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• Clubs NSW data – 50/50 between Sydney Metro and ‘Regional’ (defined as non-Sydney Metro)
State dynamics
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STATE OF PLAY What the wider market looks like at the moment
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The demographic challenge
• The player base is getting older
• New generation perception – that’s where ‘old people’ go….it’s not a product ‘thing’, in some cases it’s a layout ‘thing’
• People are living longer, savings have to be stretched, discretionary spend affected
• Record low interest rates -> effect on self funded retirees
• Age line is moving up
• Pubs encroaching on the 50-69 age bracket
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Changing trends
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Changing trends
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Changing landscape
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The big get bigger EG
M S
HA
RE
AV
ERA
GE
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2030 Prediction
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• What is the key for regional clubs not only surviving, but succeeding?
• How do small clubs get ahead?
• Is stigmatisation and social pressures around gaming coming present in regional areas?
• How do manufacturers look at changing player tastes?
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Questions
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THE NEW DEATH AND TAXES Costs and competition
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Headwinds
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• Insurance
• Compliance
• Power
• Borrowing cost
• Overall AEMP, but really just one part of it……
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Rising costs
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16
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Myth vs Fact
%age
Tier Level
x
x
x x
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Myth vs Fact
%age
Tier Level
%age
Tier Level
x
x
x x
x x
x
x
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• Keep it under control
• Rusted on costs
• The squeaky wheel
• Entitlement
• When a perk becomes an entitlement
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The new AEMP cost
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20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 H1
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
NSW Clubs and Hotels' MW Market Share
Clubs' MW Hotels' MW Linear (Clubs' MW) Linear (Hotels' MW)
H1 ‘18
62.5%
The reality
67%
33%
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• Lightning Dragons
• The model travels
• Smoking areas
• Aristocrat dominance
• Cheap Money
• Gentrified offering
• Evolving and improving
• ‘No judgement’ areas
• Loyalty programs
• No fear
• RTP / depreciation
• Financing
• Watch, learn, experience
• Reports
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Why Pubs are improving
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22
Just copying the good stuff
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….but all booms end
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• What costs have become disproportionate issues in the last 5 years?
• How do you rationalise the cost of Rewards programs and AEMP in general?
• How do venues counter the success of Pubs?
• What products are Pubs after?
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Questions
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ALL THE GOOD STUFF Trends, retention and spending patterns
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Breaking down the State
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Breaking down the State
Minutes Minutes
Avg Daily TO Location Share Avg Daily TO Location Share
Under $1000 Coastal 63.2% Under $1000 Coastal 63.2%
Country 61.2% Country 60.3%
Metropolitan 46.4% Metropolitan 45.8%
$1000 to $2500 Coastal 25.6% $1000 to $2500 Coastal 25.6%
Country 27.6% Country 28.8%
Metropolitan 30.0% Metropolitan 31.0%
$2500 to $5000 Coastal 8.2% $2500 to $5000 Coastal 8.3%
Country 8.5% Country 8.4%
Metropolitan 13.7% Metropolitan 13.7%
$5000 to $10000 Coastal 2.5% $5000 to $10000 Coastal 2.4%
Country 2.1% Country 2.1%
Metropolitan 7.2% Metropolitan 7.0%
$10000 to $20000 Coastal 0.5% $10000 to $20000 Coastal 0.5%
Country 0.6% Country 0.4%
Metropolitan 2.4% Metropolitan 2.2%
Over $20k Coastal 0.0% Over $20k Coastal 0.0%
Country 0.1% Country 0.1%
Metropolitan 0.4% Metropolitan 0.3%
Q4 - 2016Q4 - 2018
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The case for retention
Actual Net Theo Net Sample
All Games 8.35 8.49 50,400
2017-2019 (Jan) 8.46 8.17 13,900
2013-2016 8.43 8.65 20,600
2004-2012 8.04 8.71 15,200
SAP 8.29 8.26 18,900
Link 8.53 8.54 8,800
Standalone 8.67 8.82 3,200
Extra Bet 8.16 9.38 3,400
Multi Game 8.26 8.51 16,000
Multi denomination 8.40 8.40 27,000
0.01-2.00 8.25 8.66 23,400
Players Choice 8.44 8.62 6,000
Lightning Dragons 8.53 8.34 11,800
MultiStar Champion 6.30 7.87 500
Aristocrat 8.50 8.56 26,900
SciGames 8.58 8.61 5,100
IGT 7.33 8.23 7,100
Ainsworth 8.25 8.19 8,700
PRODUCT TYPE
DENOMINATION
KEY PRODUCTS
MANUFACTURERS
YEAR OF RELEASE
• Look at the older games
• Multi game blame
• Ante bet (anti-hold)
• The Lightning Dragon schnitzel is not ‘off’
• Gimme an I…gimme a G..
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• Is it as simple as players just want to win, or do they want entertainment?
• If they want entertainment, what is that on a machine?
• How is the retention problem solved? Would you advocate a cap of 92% like the Queensland Pubs and Clubs market?
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Questions
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DON’T OVER THINK IT
Data overload and the breaking old habits
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• An average 80 machine Club generates approximately 30Mb of data a day
• We have more, but are still looking at a small amount of it
• Player data is confusing
• We rely too much on automation, not enough time understanding
• Sometimes the simplest ways of looking at something are the best
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Data
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Where does it ‘hurt’
• Foot traffic
• Average spend
• Day of week, time of day
• Competitor activity
• Missing groups
• Missing individuals
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• The nuance of floor design is disappearing
• The skill of game development has gone
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RIP….denominations
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• Product and service differentiation exists in most industries
• There are clear preferences
• Venues can look to shape an offering
Gender preference
Game Name M'facturer F2M
SEA QUEEN IGT 6.26
JETSETTER NEW YORK IGT 3.32
TRIPLE MAGIC AINS 2.65
VEGAS FIESTA AINS 2.63
ENCHANTED WORLD AINS 2.62
DOUBLE SHOT DUO ENCHANTED AINS 2.59
5 TREASURES - DUO FU WA SG 2.59
HOTTER THAN HOT QS AINS 2.55
PINK GALAH TRIPLE SHOT AINS 2.55
PEARL POWER AINS 2.43
WONDER WORLD AINS 2.43
DS CLASSICS AINS 2.41
VEGAS FORTUNE AINS 2.38
DIAMOND ETERNITY - DUO FU WA SG 2.35
FIRE WIZARD AINS 2.30
Game Name M'facturer M2F
VS SG 1.96
PC HIGH LIMITS ARIS 1.77
WILD STALLION ARIS 1.76
VS CLASSIC ROULETTE SG 1.75
MORE CHILLI ARIS 1.53
LUCKY 88 ARIS 1.49
PC ULTRA JACKPOTS ARIS 1.48
VS MTGM BLACKJACK SG 1.36
KING OF THE NILE ARIS 1.35
VS MULTIGAME SG 1.33
JUMPIN' JALAPENOS DELUXE KON 1.32
PC CLASSIC EDITION ARIS 1.31
PC EMERALD EDITION ARIS 1.26
PHARAOH'S GOLD IGT 1.21
PC DIAMOND EDITION ARIS 1.20
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• Treating games as though they appeal to all
• If floor occupancy isn’t 80% a lot of the time, why are all games treated equally?
• Volatility is less appetizing for the older player
Total addressable market
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• Is it achievable to smooth out trading hours?
• What are the best guiding data points for venues of all sizes?
• Not only gaming, but food and beverage?
• Are gender specific and lower volatility areas a pipe dream?
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Questions
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THE GAMING EXPERIENCE
Invest in the engine room
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Stay in business Capex
Replacement Assumed Annual
Component Rate (years) Price Contribution
Gaming Machines (new) 8 $28,000 $3,500
Paid game conversions n/a $250
Gaming stools 4 $350 $88
Gaming bases 5 $400 $80
Gaming peripherals 6 $190 CRTs and Kiosks
Display screens 3 $160 Assume 1 screen per 20 machines
Room furniture 4 500 $125 Privacy screens and lounges
$4,393
• Gaming is the most profitable part of the business and should have an ‘untouchable’ investment schedule.
• Once you cut a gaming budget, you start to cede ground very quickly.
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• Processing quicker
• Privacy not seclusion
• Removing site lines
• Getting in and out
• Interfacing remotely
Generational
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• Gaming User Experience
– Service on demand; food and beverage, Uber
– The power of the points economy; buying convenience
– Games and promotions
– Reminders based on past trends; raffles, Bingo, promotions
Interface
G UX
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CLUB ECONOMICS
Not-for-profit doesn’t mean a charity
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• The issue of power costs and self sufficiency
• How should layouts change to reduce costs? 95% of Clubs have enough room.
• What is the future of ‘sacred cows’?
– TABs
– Courtesy Buses
– Bowlers Bars
– Auditoriums
Cost changes
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THE FUTURE OF CLUBS
How Clubs will adapt and acclimate
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What is the operating space?
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• Gaming – 65% of current Club revenue, best margin driver, still place of choice for 50+ age brackets
• Food – still driver of foot traffic, appeal will continue to follow key age brackets
• Beverage – Gen X are drinking less, beer consumption in general is declining, growth pockets in wine and coffee.
• Entertainment – gain share in the small to medium space as Pubs withdraw
The future of Clubs
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• What are some of the things you are seeing that Clubs are doing better?
• How will the business of running a regional club change?
• How will the ‘battle for the 40’s market’ be won?
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Questions
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• Benchmarks for key silos in Gaming
– RTP and retention
– Rewards program costs as a %age of Gaming revenue
– AEMP
– Gaming room investment, age of machines
• Objective operational review
• Form a Gaming Group
• Functioning Strategic plan
• Functioning Master Plan
• Demographic projections and regional development plans
Checklist
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Terry O’Halloran MBA B.Ec
Associate – Member Insights and Gaming Specialist
(m) 0426 468 738