how perceptions are distorted in crisis and dangers magnified

7/30/2019 HOW PERCEPTIONS ARE DISTORTED IN CRISIS AND DANGERS MAGNIFIED.

1/8

MKX ^ARCA^TIKES FRA DISTKRTAD IE CRISIS FED

DFEHARS JFHEIGIAD

FHMF M FJIE

Tma Dastrkyad Rfil fed Rkfd Bridha

Ft @fssfr*Darf Bfbf Efefo*Iedif ^foistfeBkrdar


2/8


3/8

mtt~0++xxx%dagaeca`kqrefl%ckj+2>>6+jfr+cmfxiedf%mtj

@fssfr Bridha Crisis0* Ft >361 mkqrs ke tma eihmt kg

7tm+8tm Sa~tajbar Iedife frtillary smallad tma ^foistfei661 Brihfdas ~ksitikes ke bktm sidas kg tma @fssfr

Bridha%It xfs irkeicfl tmft bktm tma 661 ^foistfei Brihfda

-txk iegfetry bfttflikes,kea R ' S Ckj~fey fed kea

TDQ tfeo rahijaet) fed tma 29 Iedife Brihfda-tmraa

iegfetry bfttflikes fed kea tfeo svqfdrke) k~~ksieh afcmktmar ie @fssfr fraf xara ckjjfedad by txk a}trajaly
http://www.defencejournal.com/2001/mar/chawinda.htmhttp://www.defencejournal.com/2001/mar/chawinda.htmhttp://www.defencejournal.com/2001/mar/chawinda.htm


4/8

tijid fed mihmly earwkqs ckjjfedars% Tma tfso fssiheadtk 29 Iedife Brihfda krihieflly grkj 8 Diwisike bqt ekx

k~arftieh ie fe ieda~aedaet rkla diractly qedar 66 Ckr~sMafdvqfrtar xfs tk cf~tqra tma ^foistfei aeclfwa fcrkssriwar Rfwi xmicm xfs f ~ktaetifl ^foistfei `qj~ kgg ~kiet

iesida Iedife tarritkry% Tma Iedifes lfqecmad tmair fttfco ft

>4>> mkqrs 7tm Sa~tajbar fed by >461 mkqrs rafcmad tma

skqtmare aed kg tma @fssfr bridha xmicm xfs f gax mqedrad

yfrds grkj tma Iedife bkrdar% 661 Brihfda lfqecmad f

ckqetar fttfco qsieh tfeos fed dislkdhad tma Iedifes grkjtma skqtmare aed kg tma bridha by >=>> mkqrs% Tma

^foistfei HMV, ieglqaecad by earwkqseass ft Mafdvqfrtar6 ckr~s, tkko tma sitqftike k~~ksita @fssfr wary sarikqsly

fed krdarad tma 7 Frjkqrad Diwisike ie dis~arsfl ie

Hq`rfexflf*Efedi~qr fraf tk jkwa tk ^fsrqr ke eihmt 7+8Sa~tajbar%22 Tma Iedife brihfda ckjjfedar saet

a}fhharftad ra~krts fbkqt ^foistfei sqccass tk 66 Ckr~sMafdvqfrtar fed ravqastad ~arjissike tk xitmdrfx% 66

Ckr~s Mafdvqfrtar iestafd saet tmair Cmiag Aehieaar

Kggicar fed fektmar stfgg kggicar tk rawiwa tma jkrfla kg 29Iegfetry Brihfda Ckjjfedar% Tmasa txk kggicars ke

frriwfl xara fbla tk ~qt skja s~irit ie tma 29 Brihfda fed

qedar tmair sq~arwisike tma 29 Iedife Brihfda lfqecmadfektmar fttfco ke eihmt >7+>8 Sa~tajbar 23% Tmis fttfco

xfs sqccassgql fed tma Iedifes racf~tqrad tma skqtmare aed

kg tma bridha by >=>> mkqrs 8tm Sa~tajbar 6971% Ie

ras~kesa tk tmis dawalk~jaet tma 661 Brihfda blax q~ f

s~fe kg tma @fssfr bridha xmicm xfs flrafdy ~ra~frad gkrdajklitike sieca 7tm Sa~tajbar ft >=>> mkqrs >8

Sa~tajbar 6971% Ie raflity tma sitqftike mfd stfbilisad ekx

xitm riwar Rfwi ie batxaae fed bktm tma brihfdas~ksitikead ekrtm fed skqtm kg tma riwar% Brihfdiar Jqpfggfr


5/8

xfs qegkrtqeftaly gkr ^foistfe Frjy kg f diggaraet stqgg%Ft 663> mkqrs ke tma sfja dfy i%a% 8tm Sa~tajbar xitmkqt

rackegirjieh ma saet f ra~krt tk Mafdvqfrtar 61 Diwisiketmft fe aeajy iegfetry bfttflike mfd crkssad tma rfwi riwarfed astfblismad f gkktmkld ke tma ekrtmare sida kg tma riwar

24% Fll tmis xfs mf~~aeieh ft f tija xmae Mafdvqfrtar 66

Iedife Ckr~s mfd krdarad tma 29 Brihfda ke =tm

Sa~tajbar tk lafwa f bfttflike fed rawart tk its ~fraetgkrjftike 8 Iegfetry Diwisikes ckjjfed ie fraf

Bmioixied ke tma eihmt kg =+9tm Sa~tajbar21, ie ras~kesatk tma dawalk~jaets ie 4 Jkqetfie Diwisike sactkr fs frasqlt kg tma 6st Frjkqrad diwisikes kggaesiwa ie Omaj

Ofrfe% 661 Brihfdas flfrjieh ra~krt eftqrflly cfqsad

hrfwa f~~ramaesikes ie tma ^foistfei Mihm Ckjjfed grkj

61 Diwisike kexfrds till tma HMV% Mafdvqfrtar 61Diwisike das~ftcmad 24 Brihfda lass kea bfttflike

k~~ksita Cmkbfrf*^millkrf flkehxitm kea tfeo rahijaet-21 Cfwflry) tk 661 Brihfda fraf -@fssfr)% 21 Cfwflry

s~afrmafdieh tma gira brihfda saet tk a}tiehqism tma

a}fhharftad gira ft @fssfr rafcmad @fssfr ft 22>> mkqrs ke8tm Sa~tajbar fed gkqed kqt tmft tma sitqftike xfs ekt f

grfctike fs sarikqs fs ra~krtad by 661 Brihfda fed ft >2>>

mkqrs ke eihmt 8+= Sa~tajbar tk ratqre tk mis krihiefllkcftike ^fsrqr xmicm 21 Cfwflry rafcmad ft girst lihmt =tm

Sa~tajbar27% Jafexmila tma 7 Frjkqrad Diwisike xmicm

mfd stfrtad jkwieh grkj Hq`rfexflf tk ^fsrqr ke 7tm

Sa~tajbar awaeieh fed xmksa lafdieh alajaets mfd

rafcmad ^fsrqr by 2341 mkqrs xfs krdarad tk ratqre tkHq`rfexflf by >1>> mkqrs 8tm Sa~tajbar&28 Cketrfry tk

tma ~krawflaet tmieoieh ie ^foistfe @fssfr xfs ek Iedife

daca~tike bqt f smaar dagaesiwa fctike fijad ftalijieftieh f dfeharkqs aeclfwa grkj xmicm tma ^foistfeis


6/8

ckqld tmraftae Fjritsfr% It xfs tma gkh kg xfr tmft jfdatma ^foistfei HMV fed 6 Ckr~s ijfhiea tma smfdkx ft

@fssfr fs tmft kg f hifet & Ietarastiehly tma Iedife brihfdackjjfedar ft @fssfr xfs fs jqcm fgrfid kg tma ^foistfeitrkk~s k~~ksita mij fs tma ^foistfei 6 Ckr~s fed HMV

xara fgrfid kg tma Iedife tmraft k~~ksita @fssfr% Ig Jf`kr

Smfjsmfd f diract ~frtici~fet xmk xaet tk Efrkxfl

-@fssfr) is tk ba baliawad tmae kely kea svqfdrke kg 21

Cfwflry xfs saet tk @fssfr%2=

22Gflsa Flfrj ft @fssfr 0**^fha*648*Smfqoft Ripf*K~

Cit%Fcckrdieh tk Hql Mfssfe Mafdvqfrtar 6 Ckr~s xfs tma jfie

cql~rits ras~kesibla gkr tma a}fhharftad ra~krts saet tkHMV%Hql

tmieos tmft it xfs ekt Brihfdiar Jqpfggfrqddie i%a% 661 Brihfda

Ckjjfedar xmk xfs qeearwad bqt HKC 61 Diwisike -Brihfdiar

Sfrdfr Isjfil fed mis Cklkeal Stfgg Cklkeal S%H Jfmdi oekxe

xitm tma eicoefja kg Oillar Jfmdi) fed Ckjjfedar 6

Ckr~s%Smfqoft Ripf xmk mfd f battar fccass tk xfr difrias+rackrds

mkxawar jfietfies tmft it xfs Brihfdiar Jqpfggfrqddie xmk xfs

tma jfie rafske gkr tma gflsa flfrj ft @fssfr%-^fha*696*Hql

Mfssfe Omfe*K~ Cit fed ^fha*648*Smfqoft Ripf*6971*K~ Cit)%

Jqsf ~lfcad tma aetira blfja gkr tma @fssfr gflsa flfrj ke tma

smkqldars kg HKC 61 Diwisike fed mis Cklkeal Stfgg Cklkeal S%H

Jfmdi%Fcckrdieh tk Jqsf Dqrieh tmis ~arikd,tma mafdvqfrtars kg

tmis diwisike -61 Diwisike) f~~afrad tk ba ie f stfta kg daliriqj%ItsCklkeal Stfgg -f Jilitfry Crkss grkj Bqrjf) xfs saedieh

jassfhas tk HMV fed its lkxar gkrjftikes tmft aeajy

ckjjfedks mfd iegiltrftad fed xara k~arftieh bamied Siflokt

tkxe%%%%it rahfiead sfeity kely fgtar tma fctieh Diwisikefl

Ckjjfedar fed tma Cklkeal Stfgg xara raliawad kg tmair

`kbs -^fhas*71 ' 77*Jqsf Omfe*K~ Cit) % It jfy ba ektad tmft

MV I Ckr~s xfs ckjjfedad by kea xmk xfs ekt gfjkqs gkr fey

ietallactqfl ~rkxass bqt kxad lkehawity ie mis ~kst fs Ckr~sCkjjfedar tk ~rkwae lkyflty,yasjfesmi~ fed a}traja lfco kg

ijfhieftike%Tmis xfs tma k~ieike kg fbkqt gigtaae diggaraet


7/8

kggicars xmk mfd sarwad xitm Liaqtaefet Haearfl Bfomtifr Rfef ie

wfrikqs cf~fcitias fed xmk xara ietarwiaxad by tma fqtmkr dqrieh

tma ~arikd 69=1*99%Ie tma k~ieike kg Brihfdiar Fj`fd Cmfqdmryf ralftiwaly jkra ralifbla fqtmkrity tmfe bktm Hql fed Smfqoft,

fed kea xmk xfs ~rasaet ke tma s~kt fs Ckjjfedar 4 Ckr~s

Frtillary Brihfda Liaqtaefet Haearfl Bfomtifr Rfef sfid tma

Iedifes mfd astfblismad f bridhamafd xitm kea iegfetry bfttflike

-f tribqta tk tma lawal kg tmieoieh kg Fyqbs mfed~icoad fed

^foistfe Frjys kely ckr~s ckjjfedar &&&&) fed mis fssassjaet

xfs tmft tmay xkqld bqild it q~ tk f brihfda straehtm by ea}t

jkreieh%%%ma krdarad ja tk hat ckr~s frtillary ietk fctike tksq~~krt tma ckqetarfttfco tk ba lfqecmad ea}t jkreieh tk dastrky

tma bridhamafd%%%xmae I rafcmad tma brihfda mafdvqfrtar

ie Efrkxfl I gkqed Ckjjfedar 61 Diwisike -Brihfdiar Isjfil)

fed Brihfdiar Fbdql Fli ckjjfedar 24 Brihfda flrafdy tmara%Xa

xara fll sqr~risad tk lafre grkj tma lkcfl brihfda ckjjfedar

Brihfdiar Jqpfggfrqddie tmft tma sitqftike ke mis grket xfs

ektmieh lioa xmft it mfd baae jfda kqt tk ba -Fj`fd dkas ekt

a}~lfie xmk jfda it kqt,xmy fed mkx ke afrtm did HKC 61Diwisike xfs ie 661 Brihfda fraf ig ek flfrjieh ra~krt xfs saet

kr xmy xfs Haearfl Bfomtifr ckewiecad tmft tma jfie Iedife

fttfco xfs ckjieh grkj @fssfr) fed tmft fgtar dajklitike kg tma

bridha -kely kea s~fe xfs dajklismad) kely gkqr kr giwa Iedife

skldiars mfd jfefhad tk crfxl q~ tk tma eafr aed kg tma bridha

fed ma xfs tfoieh fctike tk dafl xitm tmaj -&&&&) -^fha*83*

Sa~tajbar 71 *Bagkra fed Fgtar *Brihfdiar Fj`fd Fli Omfe

Cmfqdmry*Garkpaskes Lfmkra*6988)% Fj`fd Cmfqdmri fed Jqsf

Omfe fs lfta fs 6987 fed 69=3 ras~actiwaly, jistfoaely tmkqhmt

tmft tma Iedife aggkrt k~~ksita @fssfr xfs tma ~frt kg skja hrfed

daca~tike ~lfe fes tmft tma Iedifes xara tryieh tk jfoa qs lkko

tkxfrds @fssfr xmila tmay crkssad tma ietareftikefl bkrdar ft

Cmfrxf grkj tma diractike kg Sfjbf -^fhas*83 ' 84*Ibid) kr tmft

tma Iedife jkwa ft @fssfr xfs f Gaiet kr Diwarsikefry Aggkrt

-^fhas*71 ' 77*Jqsf Omfe*K~ Cit)%Fcckrdieh tk MfrbfosmSiehm ek sqcm hrfed strftahic daca~tike xfs ietaedad bqt fll tmft

mf~~aead ft @fssfr xfs f gihjaet kg tma 661 Brihfda


8/8

Ckjjfedar,61 Diwisike Ckjjfedar fed 6 Ckr~s Ckjjfedars

a}trajaly distqrbad fed earwkqs ijfhieftike fs ke 7+8tm

Sa~tajbar&Ckj~fra tma ckj~frftiwa latmfrhy kg ^foistfeiCkjjfedar 6 Ckr~s xitm Mfrbfosm Siehm% Xmila Mfrbfosm

~arskeflly xaet tk rawiwa tma s~irits kg lkcfl ckjjfedars ie gfca

kg ~arcaiwad kr rafl aeajy tmrafts Bfomtifr Rfef ~ragarrad

gkrxfrdly ra~krts racaiwad grkj lkxar gkrjftikes xitmkqt jkwieh

kqt kg mis mafdvqfrtar,tk cmaco tma sitqftike ie ~arske fs

Mfrbfosm Siehm tmft iedkjitfbla @ft did&It jqst mkxawar ba

rajajbarad tmft bagkra tma xfr tma ^foistfei HMV mfd f

~rackecaiwad ektike tmft tma Iedifes xkqld hk tmrkqhm tmaieckewaeiaeca kg crkssieh tma Rfwi ft @fssfr fed lfqecm tmair

jfie kggaesiwa grkj @fssfr -^fha*6=*Ibid) % It is vqita ~kssibla

tmft bktm 61 Diwisike fctieh HKC fed Ckjjfedar ^foistfei 6

Ckr~s xara ieglqaecad by tmis ~rackecaiwad ektike ie cqrraecy ie

tma ^foistfei HMV fed ~fssad ke tmis gflsa ra~krt xitmkqt

racmacoieh%Lftar keca tma ~arcaiwad tmraft ~atarad kqt Brihfdiar

Isjfil xfs jfda f scf~ahkft xmila Rfef ascf~ad Sckt graa by

wirtqa kg mfwieh clksar bkeds xitm Fyqb*Jqsf fed mis mihmarrfeo%Jqsf ie mis bkko -iegkrjad skqrcas tmieo tmft it xfs bayked

Jqsfs cf~fbility tk xrita f siehla ~fha xitmkqt fssisfteca&&&&)

criticisas HKC 61 Diwisike gkr dajklismieh tma bridha -@fssfr

Bridha) ke ~fha* 71 kg mis bkko bqt flsk stftas ke ~fha*6= kg tma

sfja bkko tmft bagkra tma xfr ma fs C ie C mfd fssassad tmft kea

kg tma txk ij~krtfet fs~acts kg tma Iedife iewfsike ~lfe ie cfsa kg

xfr xfs tk Cf~tqra @fssfr fed tma rfilxfy bridha ietfct -^fha*

6=*Ibid)% Jqsf ekxmara a}~lfies tma rkyfl latmfrhy kg mis

mfed~icoad jfe i%a% 6 Ckr~s Ckjjfedar Liaqtaefet Haearfl

Rfef xmk fs ~ar Jqsf Fbly Ckjjfedad I Ckr~s -^fha*74*

Ibid) ie ekt ~arskeflly cmacoieh tma fctqfl sitqftike ft @fssfr kr

awae saedieh f saeikr stfgg kggicar grkj Mafdvqfrtar 6 Ckr~s gkr

dkieh sk%

how perceptions are distorted in crisis and dangers magnified

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