8/11/2019 How the Islamic State Took Turkey Hostage

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How the Islamic State Took

Turkey Hostage

 The 49 Turkish diplomats captured by the

 jihadist group in Mosul may now be free, but Ankara

still has many reasons to think twice about confronting

the extremists on its border.

s

 Turkey part of the broad coalition against the slamic !tate "!# that

$resident %arack &bama has been trying to fashion, or not' There is

certainly reason to think it would be interested in the e(ort) Turkey shares a

long land border with !yria, many of the moderate !yrian opposition

leaders ha*e long been based in Turkey, and the Turkish go*ernment has

been at the forefront of the opposition to the Assad regime, along with

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many of the other states in the anti+! coalition.

 Turkey, howe*er, did not join the - Arab countries that signed on to help

build a coalition against ! at a meeting in eddah, !audi Arabia, this past

week, and has made it clear that it will not partake in military operations

against !. t is willing to pro*ide humanitarian aid, and will in all likelihood

o(er clandestine support to /.!. e(orts.

 The primary reason the Turks gi*e for their reticence was their concern for

the fate of 49 Turkish diplomatic and security personnel who were sei0ed by

! when the group o*erran the ra1i city of Mosul2 they were released this

past weekend. The hostage crisis was emblematic of all that has gone

wrong for Turkey in !yria) Although warned of the impending fall of ra13s

second largest city, the Turks terribly miscalculated in thinking that ! would

not harm Turkish personnel, gi*en how critical Ankara3s support for anti+

Assad e(ort had been.

 The end of the hostage crisis in Mosul, howe*er, does not necessarily mean

 Turkey has a free hand to confront !. Ankara still faces a second 1uasi+

hostage crisis that gi*es Turkish leaders reason to think twice about joining

&bama3s coalition. !outh of Turkey3s border with !yria, a s1uadron of

 Turkish soldiers guards an ancient tomb which is said to belong to

!uleyman !hah, the rst &ttoman sultan3s grandfather. t was ceded by the

5rench occupying power to the new Turkish state in 96. The tomb had to

be mo*ed closer to Turkey in 978 following the damming of the uphrates

and the creation of :ake Assad2 the new location, in !yria3s Aleppo $ro*ince,

is some 6- miles from the Turkish border. !ince then, a contingent of

 Turkish troops has been stationed there, rotating through regularly with

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supplies.

;ere the jihadists to decide to o*errun the Turkish encla*e, they could

probably do it easily, although it would certainly prompt a Turkish militaryreaction. ither way, the situation is a delicate if not impossible one for

Ankara, as the only way to resupply this small contingent of troops is by

reaching some sort of understanding with the jihadist group. The last known

resupply operation occurred near the end of April, when ! did not enjoy the

dominance it does today.

;hile the details of the hostage deal are still unclear, Ankara has had

interlocutors with ! ++ from Arab tribes to former ra1i <ice $resident Tari1

al+=ashimi, who sought refuge in Turkey ++ who could ha*e been

instrumental in reaching it. !uch a deal, howe*er, may include a promise of

continued non+in*ol*ement in the campaign against the jihadist group, with

the soldiers stationed at !uleyman !hah ser*ing as an insurance policy for

the jihadists.

 Turkey3s other problem has been the emergence of a jihadist support

infrastructure within its own territory. 5ormer /.!. ambassador to Turkey

5rancis >icciardone recently told journalists that Ankara had been working

with groups that the /nited !tates considers ?beyond the pale,? including

the al @aeda+aliated abhat al+Busra. arlier this year, Turkish police

also stopped a truck reportedly belonging to the =umanitarian >elief

5oundation "==#, an BC& close to the ruling ustice and De*elopment $arty

"AE$# that made its name organi0ing the ill+fated 6-- Fotilla to Ca0a, for

allegedly carrying weapons to ghters in !yria. Turkish $rime Minister

Ahmet Da*utoglu has denied that Ankara has worked with abhat al+Busra,

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while == denies that it had anything to do with the stopped truck.

Aid, munitions, and ghters ha*e been smuggled across the border at will,

sometimes *ia ambulance. The resulting infrastructure ++ consisting of

groups of sympathi0ers or enablers, networks of safe houses, transportation

and smuggling channels, and medical support ++ is now autonomous of the

go*ernment.

stimates *ary, but Turkish media reports ha*e suggested that as many as

,--- Turks ha*e joined !. According to opinion polls, only 7- percent of

 Turks *iew ! as a terrorist group. n a country of 78 million, the G- percent

who do not share such a *iew represent an important potential recruiting

pool for the jihadist group.

5or some time, the &bama administration had been pushing former prime

minister and now $resident >ecep Tayyip rdogan to clamp down on

supporting jihadists in !yria. After the fall of Mosul and the mobili0ation

against !, pressure on Turkey has been ramped up. The /nited !tates has

not asked to use its mammoth ncirlik Air %ase in southern Turkey formilitary operations against !, knowing full well that Ankara would turn

them down.

 The use of ncirlik would make it much easier and cheaper for the /nited

!tates to conduct operations, instead of routing them out of the air base in

Doha or the carriers in the $ersian Culf and the Mediterranean. %ut the

truth is, the /nited !tates does not need that base to achie*e its limited

objecti*es. nstead, ;ashington wants to work more closely with Ankara

without making much of a fuss. =owe*er, the dismantling of the

infrastructure in Turkey that supports jihadists of all stripes, and the oil+

smuggling routes beneting !, must come rst.

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rdogan bristles at any criticism from the American press, accusing it of

engaging in slander and malicious propaganda. %ut he is in a dicult

situation, much of it of his own doing. To be fair, the 8H-+mile Turkish+!yrian

border is dicult to seal completely2 people in that region ha*e for decades

made a li*ing o( smuggling.

 The bigger problem, howe*er, is that the Turkish go*ernment has little faith

in the /nited !tates. This is partially ideological, but also based on

experience. After all, the bungled management of post+in*asion ra1 does

not inspire condence in ;ashington3s ability to steward this new e(ort.

%etween the hostages ! has captured and the important residual support it

commands in Turkey, the jihadist group has managed to signicantly

restrict rdogan3s room to maneu*er. The natural policy for Turkey now is to

sit on the sidelines ++ but as the ght against ! escalates, Turkey could nd

itself under increasing pressure to be drawn in. ;ill this resemble 6--G'

 Then, the Turkish parliament, despite the Ankara go*ernment3s e(orts insupport, *oted down a resolution that would ha*e allowed American troops

to cross into ra1 through Turkish territory. That decision cast a shadow on

 Turkish+American relations as the /nited !tates struggled to control post+

!addam ra1. Turkey3s dilemma, in short, is that it has lost the initiati*e to

!2 while it has rescued its hostages, it still remains hostage to !.

Posted by Thavam