how to ensure the accuracy of ai prediction —china telecom ... · by time series algorithms....

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How to Ensure the Accuracy of AI Prediction

—China Telecom Hainiu Platform(Glaucus)

Bing Qian 2019.11


Biography

10 years of data analysis experience, since joined China Telecom in 2015, Bing responsible for pan-entertainment big data capabilities, wireless network artificial intelligence and other R&D work, now he is the technical director of the Network Artificial Intelligence Center.

Qian BingTechnical Director of Network AI Center, China Telecom

Speaking with you


Q1： I heard that AI technology is very successful in security, automobile, the

game of go and other fields. Why is it rarely applied in the field of network

operation and maintenance?

Q2： My colleagues made some AI R&D attempts, but the results were not

satisfactory. The reason they told me was the quality of my data. But the

question is if you need me to solve a data quality problem, why do I need to ask

you for help?


AI Assessment and Prediction

C

AI Finds Abnormal Cell and Data

AI Auxiliary Data Preprocessing

B

A

Ensure the Quality of Underlying Data

Review and Handle each Abnormal Data

Solve the Problem


Four measures:

1.Unified data acquisition standard for AI algorithm(CT+Huawei),

2.Data preprocessing control technology(Huawei),

3.Consistency test AI algorithm of different OMC in indicators(CT),

4. Quasi-real-time monitoring and warning of data quality(CT).

A.AI Auxiliary Data Preprocessing


Quasi-real-time monitoring and warning panel of data quality



B.AI Finds Abnormal Cell and Data

Historical data analysis, null filtering and normalization, integration of training data sets

Data processingCollecting outliers through tsoutliers for data cleaning before training

Data cleaningHot winter identifies periodic, trending, and volatility variations of data

Feature ExtractionCalculate and predict threshold baselines by time series algorithms

Baseline calculation

Collect incremental data and iteratively train the model with manual annotation

Model iterationSupervise training based on manual experience data to improve forecast accuracy

Manual labelingReal-time abnormal result of the threshold range

Real-time forecasting• Calculate and predict the upper and lower

thresholds at each time point by means of standard deviation/experience

Determining the threshold

Outliers

Outlier A

Outlier B

trend

periodic

volatility

labeling

Iteration cycle 1

Iteration cycle 2

Iteration cycle 3

update

check

training

update

check

training

update

check

training



Automatically identify data change cycles and trends;

Two

Multi-path selection of AI algorithm according to characteristics of different performance indicators;

One

Through the three-step anomaly detection method of single dimension detection->expert rules->multidimension detection, the cell performance anomaly detection without fixed threshold is realized;

Three

Abnormal detection algorithm inovation


C.AI Assessment and Prediction


C.AI Assessment and Prediction


Review and Handle each Abnormal

Value

Predict the change trend in the short periodPredict whether the abnormal cell needs to be expanded in the long period

Solution


Impact and Effect

Improvement of model accuracy Great savings in finding and solving problems

• Anomaly diagnosis algorithm: improved to 89%

• Short period traffic prediction: improved to 97.12%

• Long period traffic prediction: improved to 81%

• Discovery time of abnormal data: reduced by 96%

• Identification time of need-expansion cells: reduced by 80%


Planning

International Influence• 2019,project established in TMF• 2020, participation and project initiation in ETSI ISG Eni

(experimental networked intelligence) and other international standards associations

Commercial application• Manage and monitor data quality of 1 million

equipment manufacturers nationwide;• Applying to 3 million Telecom communities and 200

million wireless network users nationwide to improve the operation and maintenance service efficiency.

5GFrom 2020, the project will access 5g data, and the algorithm in the project will be applied to 5g network environment.


China Telecom Hainiu Platform (Glaucus)

Welcome to Catalyst Project Booth K.13

Glaucus-precision on Telco Data-C19.5.01

how to ensure the accuracy of ai prediction —china telecom ... · by time series algorithms....

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