how to find the fringe - forecasting the future

The Signals Are TalkingWhy Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream

Harvard Business Review Micro-Class on Facebook LiveDecember 13, 2016

Me: 3 Things

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Futurist – Technology, Business, SocietyFounder of the Future Today Institute. We answer “What’s the Future of X” for Fortune 100 + Global 1000 companies, universities, government agencies, large foundations, media companies.

3 New BookThe Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream

Adjunct Professor – FuturismAdjunct Prof. @ NYU Stern School of Business

Overview of the Future Today Institute’s forecasting methodology

Essential futurist’s tool: Fringe Sketch

Everything you need to know is in Signals.

The Paradox of the Present

Story

One of our greatest fringe thinkers: da Vinci

“That guy’s nuts!”

Combustion will kill us all!

People freaked out!Technology is bad!!!Steam is forever!!!

Can’t see beyond what you currently know to be true. You fear or reject new ideas.

Paradox of the Present

Steam-powered cars. Steam-powered airplanes.

Paradox of the Present

Steam-powered car-airplanes.

“We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters.”

The Curtiss “Autoplane”1917

The Paradox of the Presentis to blame!!

Why a flying car?!

Automation has always been the trend worth following.

But it’s taken everyone by surprise: Big Auto, government regulators, insurance companies

Lesson from Flying Cars

Avoid the Paradox of the Present.Keep an open mind. Try new things.

Ask questions. Seek out peopledoing unusual research at the fringes.

Trends are usually not trendy.

Strategic Thinking Framework

1. A trend is driven by a basic human need, one that is catalyzed by new technology.

2. A trend is timely, but it persists.

3. A trend evolves as it emerges.

4. A trend can materialize as a series of un-connectable dots which begin out on the fringe and move to the mainstream.

What is a real trend?

In order to forecast the future, we must listen for signals at the fringe, where new technology begins and follow trends to the mainstream.

ForecastingMethodology What

When

What to do about it

To find the Fringe, you must seek out unusual suspects and think very broadly. You must

do this with an open mind.

• USPTO.gov• arXiv.org• JSTOR.org• Reddit• DIY labs, makerspaces• Hacker communities• (Good use for Nuzzel)• Pre-publication academic research• Conference livestreams (academic, industry-specific), agendas• Traditional media sources, too, but not your primary source

Where to start

Futurist’s Tool

Finding the Fringe: 5 Guiding Questions

1. Who has been working directly and indirectly in this space?

2. Who has been funding or otherwise encouraging experimentation in this space?

3. Who might be directly impacted by this?

4. Who might be incentivized to work against this, either because they stand to gain or lose something?

5. Who might see this as a starting point for something bigger andbetter?

To organize your initial research,

make a Fringe Sketch.

Futurist’s Tool

Future of AI

Trends come from these 10 sources of change.

Let’s Sketch!

It’s best to sketchin a group…with 5-6 people

who work in differentfields and have different perspectives than you.

Observe NODESand CONNECTIONS

Step 1 is your map. It is your solution to the

Paradox of the Present.

Step 2: Look for hidden patterns. They will

indicate possible trendsworth following.

ForecastingMethodology What

When

What to do about it

I hope you’llread The SignalsAre Talking tolearn and use the tools ofa futurist in 2017!

Download the report:http://bit.ly/TechTrends17

futuretodayinstitute.com [email protected] @amywebb267-342-4300