how to plan and design for large volume cycling · 2014. 6. 18. · parkin, j. and meyers, c....
TRANSCRIPT
John Parkin Professor of Transport Engineering
Lecture at the Technical University of Vienna
26th May 2014
How to plan and design for large volume cycling:
Don’t follow the UK example
Structure of lecture
1. Introduction: history and discovery
2. Research: within a paradigm
3. Design philosophy and principles
4. Current paradigmatic contentions
5. Conclusions: the future?
2
3
‘Paris [is] just now afflicted with a serious nuisance ...velocipedes, machines like the ghosts of departed spiders, on which horrible boys and detestable men career about the streets and boulevards’ Parisian journalist in the 21st March 1868 issue of
Once a Week . Quoted in McGurn, J. (1999) On your bicycle: an illustrated history of cycling. 2nd Ed. Open Road Publishers. York. 4
Conan Doyle, A. (1905) The Priory School. In The return of Sherlock Holmes. Murray / Cape. London. 5
Travel poster for the Danish Allied Committee by Hans Bendix, 1947. Reproduced in Ebert, A.-K. and Carstensen, T.A. (2012) Cycling Cultures in Northern Europe: From ‘Golden Age’ to ‘Renaissance’. In: Parkin, J. (Ed.) Cycling and Sustainability. Bingley: Emerald. Chapter 12 6
Discovery happens through …
Falsifiability (after Popper)
A scientist is considering the colour of birds. He has a theory that all swans are white. He sets up a test hypothesis, H0: there is no difference between swans in terms of colour. He walks along the river bank and sees:
7
Observation Reject H0 Do Not Reject H0
Swan No 1
Swan No 2
Swan No 3
Swan No 4
Observation Reject H0 Do Not Reject H0
Swan No 1 White X
Swan No 2
Swan No 3
Swan No 4
Observation Reject H0 Do Not Reject H0
Swan No 1 White X
Swan No 2 White X
Swan No 3
Swan No 4
Observation Reject H0 Do Not Reject H0
Swan No 1 White X
Swan No 2 White X
Swan No 3 White X
Swan No 4
Observation Reject H0 Do Not Reject H0
Swan No 1 White X
Swan No 2 White X
Swan No 3 White X
Swan No 4 Black X
Popper, K. (1934) Logik der Forschung (The logic of scientific discovery). Springer: Vienna. Amplified English version 1959
Kuhn, T.S. (1970) The structure of scientific revolutions. 2nd Ed. University of Chicago Press 8
2 Research 1. Proximity to traffic
2. Overtaking decisions: eye tracking
3. Meta-analysis of use versus built environment factors
4. Cochrane review of injuries versus infrastructure provision
5. Monitoring: issues with counting bicycles
9
Proximity to traffic
10/
50mph
40mph
20 and 30mph
11/
• At 40mph and 50mph, motorists generally give wider berths to cyclists without cycle lanes
Parkin, J. and Meyers, C. (2010) The effect of cycle lanes on the proximity between motor traffic and cycle traffic. Accident analysis and prevention 42 (1) pp159-165. Shackel, S. and Parkin, J.. (submitted) Measuring the influence of on-road features and driver behaviour on proximity and speed of vehicles overtaking cyclists.
12/
Condition Overtaking speed Overtaking distance
Lane
widths
Spacious > tight; and critical
Road
markings
Single lane; cycle lane; and dual lane
> no centre line
Dual lane > single lane ; cycle lane;
and no centre line
Lane
widths and
road
markings
Tight & dual lane > critical & single
lane; and spacious and cycle lane
Overtaking decisions: eye tracking
Behaviour: pass to left, pass to right, stay behind
Risk perception: pass to left and pass to right
Eye movement: number of fixations and dwell times
13/
Frings, D., Parkin, J. and Ridley, A. (submitted) The effects of cycle lanes, vehicle to kerb distance and vehicle type on cyclists’ attention allocation during junction negotiation.
14/
Behavioural Choice
Condition Wait behind Offside pass Nearside pass
Overall 0.51 0.19 0.30 Cycle Lanes
Lane present 0.47 0.19 0.34
Lane absent 0.54 0.16 0.30
Vehicle size
Small vehicle 0.46 0.21 0.32
Large vehicle 0.55 0.14 0.31
Kerb Narrow space 0.53 0.22 0.24
distance Wide space 0.48 0.18 0.34
Risk
Condition Nearside Offside Total
Overall 3.02 3.02 3.02 Cycle Lanes Lane present 2.95 2.92 2.94
Lane absent 3.09 3.13 3.11
Vehicle size Smaller vehicle 2.94 2.96 2.95
Larger vehicle 3.10 3.09 3.10
Kerb Narrow space 3.22 2.96 3.09
distance Wide space 2.91 3.03 2.97
Interest area
Contextual
factor
Left Centre
left
Centre
right
Right
Mean Mean Mean Mean
Fixation Overall 0.22 0.41 0.23 0.14
Cycle lane 0.22 0.44 0.21 0.13
No Cycle lane 0.19 0.37 0.26 0.16
Small vehicle 0.23 0.39 0.22 0.17
Large vehicle 0.21 0.43 0.25 0.12
Narrow space 0.19 0.40 0.22 0.16
Wide space 0.22 0.41 0.24 0.12
Dwell Overall 0.18 0.45 0.26 0.11 time
Cycle lane 0.19 0.47 0.24 0.10
No Cycle lane 0.22 0.44 0.27 0.13
Small vehicle 0.17 0.47 0.26 0.11
Large vehicle 0.20 0.44 0.25 0.12
Narrow space 0.21 0.47 0.26 0.11
Wide space 0.19 0.43 0.27 0.12
15/
Attention Behaviour Risk perception
With cycle lane
Less to right Not affected No difference
Larger vehicle
More to left Wait behind more
Greater
Narrow distance to kerb
Less to either side, more on the vehicle
More to offside
Greater to nearside
Meta-analysis of use versus built environment factors
16/
Handy, S. (2005) Critical assessment of the literature on the relationships among transportation, land use, and physical activity. TRB Special Report 282
Robertson, K., Bamberg, S., Parkin. J., and Fyhri, A. (2013) Bicycle-friendly cities – the relevance of urban form and infrastructure. (Swedish with English summary) VTI Report 769. Linköping, Sweden. ISSN 0347-6030 17/
Variable grouping
Independent variables
Distance Included in 6 studies
Land use Residential density (4); Population density (3); Land use mix (3); Accessibility to or density of retail / shops / service / business / recreational facilities / work places (6); General accessibility perception score (2)
Transport system Street / bicycle lane connectivity (5); Street density (2); Directness (2); Presence of bicycle infrastructure (6); Presence of walking infrastructure (6); Presence of crossings (2); Presence of intersections (2); State spending on bicycle / pedestrian infrastructure (2); Accessibility to transit (public transport) (2); Number of hindrances / slowdowns (1); Duration of delays (1) Traffic intensity / volume (1)
Safety Perceived safety (crime and traffic) of neighbourhood (8); Presence of traffic control (1); Traffic death rates (1); Risk of theft / vandalism (1)
Neighbourhood characteristics
Perceived attractiveness of neighbourhood (8); Pedestrian / bicycle-friendly design (3); Street trees (1); Slope / Hilliness (3); Type of neighbourhood (urban – suburban – rural) (3)
Variable No of studies
Total sample
Mean Effect Size (r)
95% CI Standard Error
Z-scor
e
p-value
Distance 5 10,810 -.51 [-.61 – -.40] .0718 -7.88 >.0000
Land use 8 10,467 .24 [.03 – .47] .1376 1.77 .0800
Transport
system
15 26,787 .20 [.11 – .29] .0482 4.20 >.0000
Safety 10 8,636 .15 [.08 – .21] .0323 4.57 >.0000
Neighbourhood
characteristics
15 54,605 .20 [.12 – .27] .0393 5.08 >.0000
18/
Cochrane review of injuries and infrastructure
Intervention
On road: cycle lanes; shared use of a bus lanes; advanced stop lines; bicycle routes; use of colour.
Off-road: cycle tracks; cycle paths
Management: separation of traffic movements; bicycle phases at traffic signals; speed management.
Outcome
Injury: self-reported rates or numbers.
19/
Mulvaney, C.A., Watson, M.C., Parkin, J., Coupland, C., Kendrick, D., Miller, P., Smith, S. (2013) Cycling infrastructure for reducing cycling injuries in cyclists. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2013, Issue 2. Art. No.: CD010415. DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD010415
20/
Monitoring: issues with counting
21/
JA
N 1
998
AP
R 1
998
JU
L 1
998
OC
T 1
998
JA
N 1
999
AP
R 1
999
JU
L 1
999
OC
T 1
999
JA
N 2
000
AP
R 2
000
JU
L 2
000
OC
T 2
000
JA
N 2
001
AP
R 2
001
JU
L 2
001
OC
T 2
001
JA
N 2
002
AP
R 2
002
JU
L 2
002
OC
T 2
002
JA
N 2
003
AP
R 2
003
JU
L 2
003
OC
T 2
00
3JA
N 2
004
AP
R 2
004
JU
L 2
004
OC
T 2
004
JA
N 2
005
AP
R 2
005
JU
L 2
005
OC
T 2
005
JA
N 2
006
AP
R 2
006
JU
L 2
006
OC
T 2
006
JA
N 2
007
AP
R 2
007
JU
L 2
007
Date
100.00000
200.00000
300.00000
400.00000
TREND(VAR00001)
Fit for VAR000_1 from ARIMA, MOD_20 LN NOCON
Large scale missing data
Clear patterns of use can be found in datasets of automatic count data (leisure/ commute)
Modelling allows for expansion factors (useful for imputing missing data and in making annual estimates from short period counts)
22/
Gordon, G. and Parkin, J. (2012) Developing methodological approaches to analysing single point bicycle counts. The fourth annual Australian Cycling Conference, Adelaide, 16th and 17th January 2012.
Summary of research
Measurement important because engineers ‘behaviour’ linked to specification
Interventions difficult to define
More work on operationalisation of variables
Monitoring data quality problematic
23/
2 Design philosophy and principles
Fundamentals for design
Design approaches
Network permeability
Fundamentals for design
1. The bicycle is a vehicle capable of speed
2. The rider is exposed to the environment, which therefore needs to be comfortable and attractive
3. Design for competitive advantage for cycle traffic
4. Achieve enhanced permeability relative to motor traffic
Convenient: advantage, directness, reduced delay,
continuously signed, unimpeded, no long
detours, Well maintained.
Accessible: Links origins with important destinations,
routes continuous, direct as possible (distance
and time), advantage over motorised traffic, on
desire lines. Cycle routes where normally
inaccessible to motor vehicles.
Safe: Safe and perceived to be safe. Traffic volumes
and speeds reduced, conflict minimised, no
hazardous surface defects, vegetation
trimmed, lighting provided, passive
surveillance.
Comfortable: Width, gradient, surface quality, flush kerbs.
Attractive: Aesthetically pleasing, quiet, litter-free,
pleasant to stop, chat and rest, good views,
well-designed, attractively finished, attractive
materials.
LTN 2/08 Design Principles
LTN 2/08 Cycle Infrastructure Design https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/3808/ltn-2-08.pdf
Design Manual for bicycle traffic. CROW (The Dutch guidance)
Hierarchy of provision: fit for purpose?
Better: comprehensive planning
• Define objectives; • Map land use and assess cycling demand; • Map existing routes, facilities, cycle volumes and
cycling-related collisions; • Identify priority locations and constraints which need
to be treated; • Identify improvements to the network (option
development); • Predict potential demand; • Prioritise and select schemes; • Implement schemes; • Monitor and assess operation against business case.
After Godefrooij Godefrooij, T., Pardo, C. & Sagaris, L. (2009) Cycling-inclusive policy development: a handbook. Utrecht: Dutch Ministry of water energy and transport Interface for Cycling Expertise, and in forthcoming CIHT, Streets and transport in the urban environment):
Enhanced network permeability
A network of highway routes and off-carriageway links
which
create a network of routes for cyclists
which
are coherent at a fine level of detail to afford many journey
possibilities which minimise time and distance and effort.
Achieving permeability
• Two-way cycle traffic on streets which are one-way for motor traffic
• Point closures open for cycle traffic
• Allowance in vehicle restricted areas
• Parkland short-cuts
• Barriers overcome
4 Current paradigmatic contentions
31
Rights and risk
Source: Davis, R. (1992) Death on the streets. Leading edge Press, Hawes. From a Dutch cartoon
32
Language
33
Vulnerable road user
Invincible road user
Cyclist Driver
Cycle traffic
Motor traffic
Priority
34
NACTO (2012) Urban bikeway design guide. 2nd Edition. National Association of City Transportation Officials. Available at: http://nacto.org/cities-for-cycling/design-guide/bicycle-boulevards/
Equivalence
Space
36
37
Speed
Time mean speed
Space mean speed
n
VVt
∑=
( )nT
LVs ∑
=
Network Planning
38
Control
39
Separation
40
Vehicle design
41
Urban design and traffic engineering
42
Transport for London. Roads task force report http://www.tfl.gov.uk/corporate/about-tfl/how-we-work/planning-for-the-future/roads-task-force#on-this-page-0
Metz, D. (2013) Peak car and beyond: the fourth era of travel Transport reviews 33 (3) pp255-270.
43
DfT (2013) Road transport forecasts 2013. Department for transport 44
45
46
5 Conclusions: the future?
47
It's the same each time with progress. First they ignore you, then they say you're mad, then dangerous, then there's a pause and then you can't find anyone who disagrees with you.
Tony Benn (1925-2014) Labour Politician
48
Transitions
Geels, F.W. (2005) Processes and patterns in transitions and system innovations: refining the co-evolutionary multi-level perspective. Technological forecasting and social change 72 (x) pp681-696.
49
Design
50
Planning
Design
51
Mindset
Planning
Design
52
