how to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/goodsciencelecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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How to tell good climate science from bad
Ruth Sharpe, PhD27th March 2018
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Title Page – With IconMay 8, 2017
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New Podcast from Ocean Wise!
ocean.org/myocean
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How to tell good climate science from bad
Ruth Sharpe, PhD27th March 2018
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Lecture Aim
Without knowing the science, get some idea what you can trust and what you should ignore.
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Why This Is Important
Need to know what we are doing is actually going to help and not make the situation worse
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• Lorem Ipsum
Slide for text
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Things can be counterintuitive
Study: Gneezy & Rustichini. Journal of Legal Studies (2000)
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Me!
Completed PhD August 2017Executive Coordinator: 2014-2017
Now….Public Programs Manager (since Sept. 2017)
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Doing ScienceAcademic Research Article
Collecting Data
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My Research to News
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Scientists
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Step 1: Check our biases
Step 2: Is it important?
Step 3: Is it a big number?
Step 4: Is it a correlation?
Step 5: Is it a prediction?
Step 6: Who said it?
6-Steps to Tell Good Science from Bad
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Step 1: Is it important? Do you care?
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dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5407081/Environment-department-just-TWO-electric-cars.html
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dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5407081/Environment-department-just-TWO-electric-cars.html
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Step 2: Understand Our Biases
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Brain Shortcuts
Thinking Fast And Slow, Daniel Kahneman (2011)
A bat and ball cost $1.10
A bat costs one dollar more than the ball
How much does the ball cost?
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Brain Shortcuts
Thinking Fast And Slow, Daniel Kahneman (2011)
A bat and ball cost $1.10
The bat costs one dollar more than the ball
How much does the ball cost?
= 10¢ ?
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Brain Shortcuts
Thinking Fast And Slow, Daniel Kahneman (2011)
A bat and ball cost $1.10
The bat costs one dollar more than the ball
How much does the ball cost?
= 10¢ ? = $1.10 Total = $1.20
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Brain Shortcuts
Thinking Fast And Slow, Daniel Kahneman (2011)
A bat and ball cost $1.10
The bat costs one dollar more than the ball
How much does the ball cost?
= 5¢
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Two Brain ‘Systems’
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short amount of time
Why our brains use these shortcuts
Food (aka energy)
was Scare
We Evolved to Use
As Little Energy as
Possible
Our brains use a lot
of energyHumans Evolved in
Different Environment
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short amount of time
Why our brains use these shortcuts
Food (aka energy)
was Scarce
We Evolved to Use
As Little Energy as
Possible
Our brains use a lot
of energyHumans Evolved in
Different Environment
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short amount of time
Why our brains use these shortcuts
Food (aka energy)
was Scarce
We Evolved to Use
As Little Energy as
Possible
Our brains use a lot
of energyHumans Evolved in
Different Environment
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short amount of time
Why our brains use these shortcuts
Food (aka energy)
was Scarce
We Evolved to Use
As Little Energy as
Possible
Our brains use a lot
of energyHumans Evolved in
Different Environment
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The Truthfulness Bias
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Aim for this instead!
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Conformation bias
Alex Proimos | Wikimedia Commons
Study: Westen et al, Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience (2006)
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Conformation bias
news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/6272634.stm
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Conformation bias
www.bbc.com/news/health-19465692
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Zero-Risk Bias
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Step 2: Conclusion
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Step 3: What do the numbers mean?
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Put the numbers in context!
‘The clothing industry creates carbon emissions of 1.2 billion tonnes…’New Scientist 24th Feb 2018
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Put the numbers in context!
‘The clothing industry creates carbon emissions of 1.2 billion tonnes…’New Scientist 24th Feb 2018
‘The clothing industry creates carbon emissions of 1.2 billion tonnes a year..’ New Scientist 24th Feb 2018
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Put the numbers in context!
‘The clothing industry creates carbon emissions of 1.2 billion tonnes…’New Scientist 24th Feb 2018
‘The clothing industry creates carbon emissions of 1.2 million tonnes a year..’
‘The clothing industry creates carbon emissions of 1.2 billion tonnes a year..’ New Scientist 24th Feb 2018
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Put the numbers in context!
‘The clothing industry creates carbon emissions of 1.2 billion tonnes a year..’ New Scientist 24th Feb 2018
World emits 36 billion tonnes of carbon per yearAs of 2015: Neatherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
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Put the numbers in context!
‘The clothing industry creates carbon emissions of 1.2 billion tonnes a year..’ New Scientist 24th Feb 2018
World emits 36 billion tonnes of carbon per yearAs of 2015: Neatherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Clothing industry creates 3.3% of global carbon emissionsCalculation by Ruth!
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Put the numbers in context!
‘France will let its wolf population grow by 40%....’ New Scientist 24th Feb 2018
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Put the numbers in context!
‘France will let its wolf population grow by 40%....’ New Scientist 24th Feb 2018
But…. currently only 360 wolves in France!
140 more wolves!
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Lamb from New Zealand
688 kg of the CO2 is released for each tonne of New Zealand lamb for sale in Britain.
CM Saunders (2007)
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Lamb from New Zealand
688 kg of the CO2 is released for each tonne of New Zealand lamb for sale in Britain.
CM Saunders (2007)
2,849 kg of the CO2 is released for each tonne of New Zealand lamb raised and sold in Britain.
CM Saunders (2007)
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Graph Scales Can Be Misleading
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Graph Scales Can Be Misleading
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Graph Scales Can Be Misleading
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Step 3: Conclusion
Put numbers in context
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Step 4: Is it a correlation?
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What is correlation?
One thing increases
with another thing
One thing decreases as
another one increases
thing 1
thing 2
Key
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But …………
Correlation does
not mean causation
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Sometimes it’s just a coincidence…Divorce Rates in Maine
correlates withPer Capita Consumption of Margarine!
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Sometimes it’s just a coincidence
Correlation does
not mean causation
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Other things cause the pattern
vs
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Other things cause the pattern
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Other things cause the pattern
Correlation does
not mean causation
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Correlation………
Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank, World Development Indicators (WDI)
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Correlation does NOT mean causation!
Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank, World Development Indicators (WDI)
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Step 4: Conclusion
Correlation does
not mean causation
![Page 64: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Step 5: Is it a predication?
![Page 65: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
The Future
Where Does The Prediction
Come From?
Computer modelGuess or
opinion
If trends continue...
![Page 66: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Opinion
Where Does The Prediction
Come From?
Computer modelGuess or
opinion
If trends continue...
![Page 67: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
Opinion
Where Does The Prediction
Come From?
Computer modelGuess or
opinion
If trends continue...
![Page 68: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Opinion
Where Does The Prediction
Come From?
Computer modelGuess or
opinion
If trends continue...
![Page 69: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Extrapolation
![Page 70: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
Opinion
Where Does The Prediction
Come From?
Computer modelGuess or
opinion
If trends continue...
![Page 71: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
What is a model?
celebrating200years.noaa.gov
![Page 72: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
Model Example: Arctic Ice
NCAR climate model: www.youtube.com/watch?v=3v9aRQpumPA
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Example: Temperature Predictions
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Global_Warming_Predictions.png
Each line represents different conditions
![Page 74: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
Step 6: Who said it?
![Page 75: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
Google it!
Try to Find The Original Source
Can be easy to google!
![Page 76: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
What is the source?
Who Said It?
Peer-reviewed paper
Person(s)NGO or government
report
Newspaper, website
or other
Most Reliable Least Reliable
![Page 77: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
Who Said It?
Peer-reviewed paper
Person(s)NGO or government
report
Newspaper, website
or other
Peer-review
![Page 78: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
Who Said It?
Peer-reviewed paper
Person(s)NGO or government
report
Newspaper, website
or other
Peer-review
What is peer-review?
![Page 79: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
What is peer review?
Published article!
Collect data Do statistics and
write paperSend to journal editor
Anonymous reviewsCorrections
![Page 80: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
What is peer review?
Published article!
Collect data Do statistics and
write paperSend to journal editor
Anonymous reviewsCorrections
![Page 81: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
What is peer review?
Published article!
Collect data Do statistics and
write paperSend to journal editor
Anonymous reviewsCorrections
![Page 82: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
What is peer review?
Published article!
Collect data Do statistics and
write paperSend to journal editor
Anonymous reviewsCorrections
![Page 83: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
What is peer review?
Published article!
Collect data Do statistics and
write paperSend to journal editor
Anonymous reviewsCorrections
![Page 84: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
What is peer review?
Published article!
Collect data Do statistics and
write paperSend to journal editor
Anonymous reviewsCorrections
![Page 85: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
Find The Original Source (if you can)
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-19465692
![Page 86: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/86.jpg)
Find The Original Source (if you can)
![Page 87: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/87.jpg)
Peer Reviewed Paper
Probably Good
Science
![Page 88: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/88.jpg)
Peer Reviewed Paper
Remember….check what the study actually says!
![Page 89: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/89.jpg)
Can you always trust peer-reviewed articles?
Peer-reviewed paper?
Fake Journal?
![Page 90: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/90.jpg)
Can you always trust peer-reviewed articles?
Peer-reviewed paper?
Fake Journal?
![Page 91: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/91.jpg)
Fake Journals
Not in Wikipedia probably fake!
![Page 92: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/92.jpg)
Can you always trust peer-reviewed articles?
Peer-reviewed paper?
Fake Journal?
Meta-Analysis? (study of studies)
![Page 93: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/93.jpg)
• Graduate students and profs wanting to publish “publish or perish”
• Research Funding Sources
• Difficulty getting ‘negative’ studies published
Some reasons things may go wrong
![Page 94: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/94.jpg)
Can you always trust peer-reviewed articles?
Peer-reviewed paper?
Fake Journal?
Meta-Analysis? (study of studies)
![Page 95: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/95.jpg)
Meta-analysis: Example Study
vs
![Page 96: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/96.jpg)
Meta-analysis: Example Study
Meta-analysis
![Page 97: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/97.jpg)
Who Said It?
Peer-reviewed paper
Person(s)NGO or government
report
Newspaper, website
or other
Peer-review
![Page 98: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/98.jpg)
Not peer-reviewed
Reports
![Page 99: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/99.jpg)
IPCC Report
www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
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Reports
Report
Who are the author(s)?
Are they experts in
this topic?
![Page 101: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/101.jpg)
Who said it?
Report
Are the authors experts?
Are they experts in
this topic?
![Page 102: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/102.jpg)
IPCC Report: Who wrote it?
www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/ dge.carnegiescience.edu/people/cfield
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IPCC Report: Who wrote it?
www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/ dge.carnegiescience.edu/people/cfield
![Page 104: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/104.jpg)
Report
Are the authors experts?
![Page 105: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/105.jpg)
Report
Are the authors experts?
Are they experts in
this topic?
![Page 106: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/106.jpg)
Scientific Experts
The Whole Of Science!
A Scientist’s expertise
![Page 107: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/107.jpg)
Report
Are the authors experts?
Are they experts in
this topic?
![Page 108: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/108.jpg)
IPCC Report: Who wrote it?
www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/ dge.carnegiescience.edu/people/cfield
Probably Good
Science
![Page 109: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/109.jpg)
Peer-review
Who Said It?
Peer-reviewed paper
Person(s)NGO or government
report
Newspaper
or website
Other
![Page 110: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/110.jpg)
Who is this ‘scientist’?
www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2009/10/07/scientist-carbon-dioxide-doesnt-cause-global-warming
![Page 111: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/111.jpg)
Who is this ‘scientist’?
Person(s)
Is he/she an expert?
![Page 112: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/112.jpg)
https://www.desmogblog.com/h-leighton-steward#s1
![Page 113: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/113.jpg)
Who is this ‘scientist’?
https://www.desmogblog.com/h-leighton-steward#s1
Not important
![Page 114: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/114.jpg)
Who is this ‘scientist’?
Person(s)
Is he/she an expert?
![Page 115: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/115.jpg)
Who is this ‘scientist’?
https://www.desmogblog.com/h-leighton-steward#s1
And …has an agenda
![Page 116: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/116.jpg)
Who is this ‘scientist’?
https://www.desmogblog.com/h-leighton-steward#s1
And …has an agenda
![Page 117: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/117.jpg)
Another Example
![Page 118: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/118.jpg)
Another Example
Person(s)
Is he/she an expert?
![Page 119: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/119.jpg)
Another Example
Person(s)
Is he/she an expert?
Is this his/her
research field?
![Page 120: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/120.jpg)
Expert in the correct field?
NOT AN EXPERT in this field
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Person(s)
Is he/she an expert?
Is this his/her
research field?
![Page 122: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/122.jpg)
Expert in the correct field?
NOT AN EXPERT in this field
![Page 123: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/123.jpg)
Peer-review
Who Said It?
Peer-reviewed paper
Person(s)NGO or government
report
Newspaper, website
or other
![Page 124: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/124.jpg)
• Campaigning organization
• Political Party
• Newspaper
• Non-profit
• Company
• NGO
Agenda?
![Page 125: How to tell good climate science from badruthsharpe.com/GoodScienceLecture.pdf · 2020. 6. 23. · Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Historical data workbook World Bank,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022071510/612f933e1ecc515869438941/html5/thumbnails/125.jpg)
Step 1: Check our biases
Step 2: Is it important?
Step 3: Is it a big number?
Step 4: Is it a correlation?
Step 5: Is it a prediction?
Step 6: Who said it?
6-Steps to Tell Good Science from Bad
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Take Home Message!
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Podcasts!!
• More or Less: Behind The Stats (BBC)
• Science Vs. (Gimlet)
• Hidden Brain (NPR)
For more see: rvsharpe.github.io
Further Reading!
Thanks to:Ocean Wise TeamStephanie Chong Ladies Learning Code!Terry McLeod (awesome volunteer!)
Remember:
Contact me!
rvsharpe.github.io