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SPIES WIN WARSOR
HOW TO USE TECHNOLOGY TO BEAT THE MARKETS
Adrian Economakis | Marine Money New York | June [email protected]: Information and opinions contained in this report have been compiled or arrived from sources believed by VV to be reliable. However, no warranty or representation is made as to the correctness, completeness and accuracy of the information or the assessments made on its basis.
WHAT WE DO
Value TradeMapSearch
OUR SERVICES
WHERE WE ARE
LAUNCHED2011
8 OFFICESWorldwide
PEOPLE160+
CLIENTS400 (2,000)
GOOD DATA = GOOD SPYING
SPYING TOOLS
SPY ON VESSELS (STOPPAGES)
SPY ON VESSELS (JOURNEYS)
SPY ON VESSELS (SPECIAL EVENTS)
SPY ON THE FLEET
VLCC 2013/14
VLCC 2018/19
SPY ON THE WORLD
SPY ON THE WORLD
26,000+ Berths6,000+ Ports6,000+ Anchorages2,000+ Shipyards
+ Terminal level details are being added
SPY ON A VESSELS DEMAND
SPY ON COMPANY FLEET DEMAND
SPY ON GLOBAL DEMAND & SUPPLY
SPY ON FLEET UTILISATION
SPY ON TRADES
SPY ON ROUTES
SPY ON IT ALL
VLCC TON MILE DEMAND
TRACK RECORD
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
DecTo
n M
iles
(Bn)
VLCC Ton Mile Demand
Five Year Range Y2017 Y2018 Average
WHAT WE SHOWED AT MM LONDON JANUARY 2019
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
DecTon Miles (Bn
)
VLCC Ton Mile Demand
Five Year Range Y2017 Y2018 Average
DISTILL TRENDS TO ASSESS MARKET
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
DecTo
n M
iles
(Bn)
VLCC Ton Mile Demand
Five Year Range Y2017 Y2018 Average
DISTILL TRENDS TO ASSESS MARKET
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
740
760
-$10,000
-$5,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
2017 2018 2019
Ton
Mile
DW
T Bn
/ N
M
VLC
C T
CE
$/D
ay
Ton Mile Demand VLCC Rates2017 2018 2019
DISTILL TRENDS TO ASSESS MARKET
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
740
760
-$10,000
-$5,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
2017 2018 2019
Ton
Mile
DW
T Bn
/ N
M
VLC
C T
CE
$/D
ay
Ton Mile Demand VLCC Rates2017 2018 2019
• False peak in demand
DISTILL TRENDS TO ASSESS MARKET
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
740
760
-$10,000
-$5,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
2017 2018 2019
Ton
Mile
DW
T Bn
/ N
M
VLC
C T
CE
$/D
ay
Ton Mile Demand VLCC Rates2017 2018 2019
• False peak in demand
• Rates falling
LNG
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Nu
mb
er o
f V
esse
ls
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
LARGE LNG FLEET GROWTH
5%9%
7%8%
5%
11%3%
LARGE LNG DEMAND VS EARNINGS
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Larg
e LN
G R
ates
USD
/Wee
k
Ton
Mile
s D
WT
Bn
/ N
M
Ton Miles Large LNG Rates
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
LARGE LNG DEMAND VS SUPPLY QUARTERLY
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Per
cen
tag
e C
han
ge
Average Ton Mile % Growth Average Vessels % Growth
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
LARGE LNG IMPORTS TO CHINA
0
5
10
15
20
25
Ton
Mile
s D
WT
Bn
/ N
M
ROW Papua New Guinea Nigeria USA Australia2016 2017 2018 2019
MARKET REVIEW
GAS 3 MONTH DEMAND VS SUPPLY
-0.9%10.5%
12.3%
2.9% -0.7%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Large LNG QMAX/QFLEX VLGC SP FR (Small) Fully Press
Yea
r on
Yea
r P
erce
nta
ge
Ch
ang
e
Ton Mile Growth vs Supply Growth
Ton Mile Growth Supply Growth
TANKER 3 MONTH DEMAND VS SUPPLY
-3.0%-9.0%
1.3% -4.6%1.7%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR1 MR2
Yea
r on
Yea
r P
erce
nta
ge
Ch
ang
e
Ton Mile Growth vs Supply Growth
Ton Mile Growth Supply Growth
BULKER 3 MONTH DEMAND VS SUPPLY
-4.7%
-3.7%
-1.9%
0.4%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Capesize Panamax Supramax Handy
Yea
r on
Yea
r P
erce
nta
ge
Ch
ang
e
Ton Mile Growth vs Supply Growth
Ton Mile Growth Supply Growth
MOST PROMISING SHIPPING MARKETS
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Dem
and
/S
up
ply
Rat
io
Bulkers Demand/Supply
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MOST PROMISING SHIPPING MARKETS
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Dem
and
/S
up
ply
Rat
io
Bulkers Demand/Supply Tankers Demand/Supply
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MOST PROMISING SHIPPING MARKETS
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Dem
and
/S
up
ply
Rat
io
Bulkers Demand/Supply Tankers Demand/Supply LNG Demand/Supply
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MOST PROMISING SHIPPING MARKETS
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Dem
and
/S
up
ply
Rat
io
Bulkers Demand/Supply Tankers Demand/Supply LNG Demand/Supply LPG Demand/Supply
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
BEST / WORST DEMAND SUPPLY RATIOS (3 MONTHS)
12.3%
TOP 3
GasVLGC
10.5%
GasQMAX/QFLEX
2.9%
GasSP FR (Small)
-9.0%
TankerSuezmax
-4.7%
BulkerCapesize
-4.6%
TankerLR1
BOTTOM 3
A GOOD NAVIGATOR (SPY?) NEVER RELIES ON A SINGLE PIECE OF INFORMATION
SUMMARY
The ton mile demand and vessel trade tool for Bulkers, Tankers and Gas.
vesselsvalue.com
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report have been compiled or arrived from sources believed by VV to be reliable. However, no warranty or representation is made as to the correctness, completeness and accuracy of the information or the assessments made on its basis.