how we have changed our behaviour during covid 19;

How we have changed our

behaviour during Covid 19;

Kantar

Purchase, Usage and OOH Panels

data to April / May 2020

[email protected]

Strategic Insight Director Scotland

mailto:[email protected]

Our data today is taken from the following panels

Take home Panel

30000 households

Consumption Panel

11000 individuals

Out of Home Panel

7500 individuals

Alcovision Panel

30000 individuals

https://www.kantar.com/Inspiration/Coronavirus

2

https://www.kantar.com/Inspiration/Coronavirus

How we have changed our behaviour during Covid 19

Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 17th May 2020

Contents

Retailers

1.

Categories

2.

The impact of deliveries

3.

Consumption and Health

4.

Beyond Lockdown

5.

3

May 2020 – take-home Grocery growth accelerates, with sales back over £10bn


£10.7bn+£2.1bn

+24% YoY

£9.9bn+£781m

+9% YoY

£10.4bn+£1.7bn

+19% YoY

March 2020: Preparation April 2020: Adjustment May 2020: Settlement

£31bn, +£4.5bn, +17% YoY

4

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

w/e 02Feb 20

w/e 09Feb 20

w/e 16Feb 20

w/e 23Feb 20

w/e 01Mar 20

w/e 08Mar 20

w/e 15Mar 20

w/e 22Mar 20

w/e 29Mar 20

w/e 05Apr 20

w/e 12Apr 20

w/e 19Apr 20

w/e 26Apr 20

w/e 03May 20

w/e 10May 20

w/e 17May 20

Fre

qu

en

cy

Trip

Sp

en

d £

Trip Spend £ Frequency

We are making far fewer trips, with far bigger baskets than our pre-covid norm

Kantar, FMCG Panel, Weekly KPIs, we 17th May 2020

Some signs of a slight behavioural change after the Prime Minister’s address on Sunday 10th

Lockdown

5

Early signs that footfall is starting to increase and basket sizes slowing down

Kantar, Total FMCG, average difference in weekly purchasing habits during lockdown vs. average week in 2019

However, we are a long way from returning to our prior behaviour just yet – it will be gradual

-22%fewer trips

+45%more items per trip

April and May 2020: 8 weeks of lockdown vs 2019 average

-19%fewer trips

+43%more items per trip

11th – 17th May 2020 vs 2019 average

6

Families are still the fastest growing groups, but Retirees now back in growth


4we Value growth £%

+21.6%Pre-Family

+23.1%Young Family

+30.5%Middle Family

+27.4%Older Family

+33.0%Older Dependents

+16.6%Empty Nesters

+7.5%Retired

+17.4%Scotland

+19.0%North

+15.9%East

+21.5%London

+18.8%Wales

+20.6%Midlands

+19.2%South

GB +19.1%

YoY

7

Internet has accelerated again this period, whereas Convenience is the only channel to see a

worse performance this month vs last, as shopper growth flattens


19.1%

11.6%

44.5%

80.6%

15.0%

-10.7%

-30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90%

Total Grocery

Supermarket

Convenience

Internet

Discounter

High street

Retailer Grocery Sales Growth & KPI drivers (%), 4we YoY £%

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Supermarket

Convenience

Internet

Discounter

High street

Penetration % Purchase Frequency Trip Packs

Price per Pack GB HH Population

8

Retailers find extra capacity to meet demand, meaning a further acceleration in

growth for Online


4w/e Grocery Sales Growth YoY %

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

21 Apr 19 19 May 19 16 Jun 19 14 Jul 19 11 Aug 19 08 Sep 19 06 Oct 19 03 Nov 19 01 Dec 19 29 Dec 19 26 Jan 20 23 Feb 20 22 Mar 20 19 Apr 20 17 May 20

Spend Growth YoY%

Total Market Total Online

+4.5m

deliveriesthis May compared to

last year

9

Online has successfully grown all shopper groups from month to month


Whereas Convenience has not kept hold of shoppers from April – price & range barriers?

-11%

11%

-17%

11%

-11%

7%

-12%

8%

-13%

7%

-10%

11%

-9%

13%

-10%

14%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Convenience Ecommerce

Period on Period % change in Shoppers – May 2020 vs April 2020

All Lifestages Pre-Family Young Family 0-4 Years Middle Family 5-9 Years Family 10+ Years Older Dependents Empty Nesters Retired

10

Very strong take-home growth for the main Grocers, as for non-food Retailers

struggle because of suppressed demand and footfall


19.1%

21.3%

13.4%

23.1%

20.2%

40.7%

40.6%

16.6%

58.6%

13.6%

21.5%

72.8%

-30.7%

-20.2%

-3.5%

16.7%

-26.1%

12.1%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Total Grocery

Tesco

Asda

Sainsbury's

Morrisons

Co-op

Iceland

Waitrose

Ocado

Aldi

Lidl

Indies & Symbols

Boots

Superdrug

Bargain Stores

M&S

Wilko

Others

Retailer Grocery Value Sales Growth, 4we YoY £%

11

Promotions are starting to return after a temporary contraction, rising +0.9pp

on last month

Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 17th May 2020 F

rozen

Mea

t

He

althcare

Ora

l-C

are

Fro

zen

Con

fectio

nery

Alc

oh

ol

Am

bie

nt B

akery

Pro

ducts

Fre

sh P

ou

ltry

+G

am

e

Fre

sh F

ish

Take H

om

e C

onfe

ctione

ry

Ch

ille

d C

onvenie

nce

Take H

om

e S

avouri

es

Ch

ille

d B

akery

Pro

ducts

Ho

t B

evera

ge

s

Fru

it+

Veg

+S

ala

ds

Ho

useho

ld &

Cle

anin

g P

rds

Da

iry P

rod

ucts

Fre

sh M

eat

Sw

ee

t H

om

e C

ookin

g

Pic

kle

+T

bl S

ce

+C

ondim

ent

Take H

om

e S

oft D

rinks

Am

bie

nt S

limm

ing

Pro

ducts

Pet C

are

Bis

cuits

Ha

ircare

Savoury

Ca

rbohydrt

s+

Sncks

Savoury

Ho

me C

ookin

g

Ca

nne

d G

oo

ds

Bath

room

Toile

trie

s

Fro

zen

Pre

pare

d F

ood

s

Fro

zen

Po

ultry

+G

am

e

Packe

t B

reakfa

st

Oth

er

Toile

trie

s

YoY Change in volume % on promotion (pp)

31.9

24.5

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

2

2 A

pr

18

2

0 M

ay 1

8

1

7 J

un

18

1

5 J

ul 18

1

2 A

ug 1

8

0

9 S

ep 1

8

0

7 O

ct 18

0

4 N

ov 1

8

0

2 D

ec 1

8

3

0 D

ec 1

8

2

7 J

an

19

2

4 F

eb

19

2

4 M

ar

19

2

1 A

pr

19

1

9 M

ay 1

9

1

6 J

un

19

1

4 J

ul 19

1

1 A

ug 1

9

0

8 S

ep 1

9

0

6 O

ct 19

0

3 N

ov 1

9

0

1 D

ec 1

9

2

9 D

ec 1

9

2

6 J

an

20

2

3 F

eb

20

2

2 M

ar

20

1

9 A

pr

20

1

9 M

ay 2

0

Volume % on promotion

12


Contents

Retailers Categories

2.


3.


4.

Beyond Lockdown

5.1.

Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 17th May 2020 13

Alcohol is the big lockdown winner while the non-food departments struggle to

find growth, Frozen also grows as the weather changes


4we YoY Growth %

49.9%

23.0%20.4% 19.1%

17.2%

7.0%

-1.9%-4.0%

43.6%

18.6%16.3%

13.4% 12.3%

-0.9%-3.4% -2.4%

Alcohol Frozen Ambient Total FMCG Fresh+Chilled Healthcare Household Toiletries

Value Sales YoY £% Vol Sales YoY %

14

All about bigger trips, more shoppers buying in-home alcohol, and pack prices


KPI contribution to growth (%), 4w/e May 20 vs 19

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Grocery

Alcohol

Ambient

Fresh

Frozen

Healthcare

Household

Toiletries

Penetration % Purchase Frequency Trip Packs Price per Pack GB HH Population

+4.4%4we Grocery

inflation

15

With nowhere to go, consumers are treating themselves to a drink to help wind down in these

stressful times, as well as embracing the opportunity to spend time with loved ones

Key Occasions | March 2020 | Off Trade

Staying in

as a

Couple

Regular /

Everyday

Drink15.7% Share of Serves

+3 pts on 2019

13.4% Share of Occasions

+2.7 pts vs 2019

3.7 Serves

per Drinker

2.6 Serves

per Drinker

Kantar, Alcovision Panel, 1 m/e 31/3/20 16

The key growth lever has been an influx of new shoppers over

lockdown

4we Sales Growth & KPI drivers (£000s), YoY £%

56.5%

21.9%

43.3%

+26.4%

-16.0%

+20.0%

Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 19th April 2020

+1.6 million

shoppers in the

Alcohol category this

April vs last

-40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

Beer

Cider

RTDs

Sparkling Wine

Spirits

Still Wine

Penetration % Purchase Frequency Trip Volume (litre) Price per litre GB HH Population

17

Alcohol has risen to the top of the charts this month, overtaking ingredients.

Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4w/e 17th May 2020

Time at home means more time to cook, but less interest in convenience and personal care

-20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Alcohol

Sweet Home Cooking

Savoury Home Cooking

Frozen Confectionery

Pickle+Tbl Sce+Condiment

Fresh Meat

Frozen Meat

Frozen Fish

Take Home Savouries

Dairy Products

Canned Goods

Take Home Soft Drinks

Take Home Confectionery

Packet Breakfast

Savoury Carbohydrts+Sncks

Chilled Drinks

Fruit+Veg+Salads

Frozen Prepared Foods

Ambient Bakery Products

Fresh Poultry+Game

Biscuits

Hot Beverages

Healthcare

Chilled Convenience

Frozen Poultry+Game

Fresh Fish

Haircare

Household & Cleaning Prds

Chilled Bakery Products

Bathroom Toiletries

Other Toiletries

Pet Care

Oral-Care

Total FMCG – Market Sectors – Ranked on year on year value sales growth

Alcohol

Ambient Groceries

Fresh & Chilled

Frozen

Healthcare

Household

Toiletries

18


Contents

Retailers

1.

Categories

2.


3.


4.

Beyond Lockdown

5.


The Out of Home market has declined significantly since lockdown began,

driven by fewer shoppers.

Source: Total OOH | 4we 19 April 2020 rolling

0

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

3,000,000,000

3,500,000,000

4,000,000,000

4,500,000,000

5,000,000,000

4 w/e19 May

19

4 w/e16 Jun

19

4 w/e14 Jul

19

4 w/e11 Aug

19

4 w/e08 Sep

19

4 w/e06 Oct

19

4 w/e03 Nov

19

4 w/e01 Dec

19

4 w/e29 Dec

19

4 w/e26 Jan

20

4 w/e23 Feb

20

4 w/e22 Mar

20

4 w/e19 Apr

20

Total OOH Value £ Lockdown

begins Total OOH Value:

-£2.4bn(-66% vs. March)

Total Shoppers

29 Million(-19M vs. March)

20

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

4 w/e21 Apr

19

4 w/e19 May

19

4 w/e16 Jun

19

4 w/e14 Jul

19

4 w/e11 Aug

19

4 w/e08 Sep

19

4 w/e06 Oct

19

4 w/e03 Nov

19

4 w/e01 Dec

19

4 w/e29 Dec

19

4 w/e26 Jan

20

4 w/e23 Feb

20

4 w/e22 Mar

20

4 w/e19 Apr

20

YoY Delivery Growth – Value £

However, Delivery saw massive growth in April. Making up a large proportion

of total OOH sales.

Source: Total OOH | Delivery | Value £ | 4we 19 April 2020 rolling

£568 Million

(+245% YoY)

Share of total OOH

sales

46.9%(+40.9ppt vs. March)

21

This growth in Delivery has been driven by an influx of new shoppers.

Source: Total OOH | Delivery | Incremental Shoppers | 4we 19 April 2020 vs. 4we 22 March 2020

4we 22 March 2020

17% of buyers had

not purchased

delivery in the 6

months prior.

4we 19 April 2020

43% of buyers had

not purchased

delivery in the 6

months prior.

6 Million Shoppers 11.7 Million Shoppers

22


Contents

Retailers

1.

Categories

2.


3.


4.

Beyond Lockdown

5.


Kantar, FMCG Panel, 4we 19th April 2020

Covid 19

and

Implications

on our

health

24

What is the impact on our health…

That’s more than £270m per

week in additional spend!

160mMore Lunches

180mMore Snacks

That’s more than £145m per

week in additional spend!

25

lockdown month 1 - calories, saturates and sodium are all rising faster.

Sugar is on par but its usually in decline

17.9

23.2

17.8

21.4

27.9

23.6

25.3

Volume Calories Sugar Saturates Sodium Protein Fibre

% Change in Nutrient Volume YOY4 we Mar 20 vs Mar 19

Percentage Change in Nutrient Volumes YOY | 4 w/e Data Periods | Total Take Home Food & Drink Market 26

Health growth has plateaued since the spring of 2018; since then it looks like a

trend that is going to continue to fall.

Millions of servings chosen for health | Total Food & Drink

Total IH/CO | 52 w/e 23 Feb 2020

Total

Health

Health still

accounts for

nearly 1/3rd of all

food servings

27


28

Contents

Retailers

1.

Categories

2.


3.


4.

Beyond Lockdown

5.


Covid 19 has been the biggest change to

our fundamental shopping and

consumption behaviour in recent memory

but how long will these changes last?

How will this disruption continue to change

consumer needs and behaviour? Expect

different trajectories for different

categories and channels post lockdown.

What should brands and retailers be doing in

response to these changes in occasions and

health?

Will there be a ‘mini-boom’ as we return to

the things we have missed or with low

consumer confidence will it be a more

cautious consumer spending and

recessionary behaviour.

29

Thank you

30

how we have changed our behaviour during covid 19;

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