how will atmospheric moisture transport from ocean to land change
TRANSCRIPT
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How will atmospheric moisture transport from ocean to land
change with anthropogenic climate change?
Michael Previdi
CICAR ACCWW Symposium22 May 2013
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Trenberth et al., 2007
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Trenberth et al., 2007
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CMIP5 Analysis• Initially examine 5 models: CCSM4, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0,
GFDL-CM3, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and NorESM1-M
• For each model, consider four different experiments: 1) historical (1850-2005), 2) historicalGHG (well-mixed GHG forcing only), 3) historicalAA (anthropogenic aerosol forcing only), and 4) RCP8.5 (2006-2100)
• In addition to availability of “single forcing” GHG and aerosol simulations, these models were chosen because they close the global atmospheric moisture budget (Liepert and Lo, 2013), and because they likely differ significantly in their anthropogenic aerosol forcing during the historical period (e.g., see Forster et al., 2013).
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Atmospheric Moisture Balance
∫ −=⋅∇+∂∂ sp
PEqdpvgt
w
0
1 v
• The four terms, from left to right, are the time rate of change of atmospheric moisture storage (including vapor, liquid and solid), the horizontal divergence ofthe atmospheric moisture flux, the surface evapotranspiration flux, and thesurface precipitation flux.
• Atmospheric moisture storage, E and P are obtained directly from monthly meanCMIP5 output, with the moisture flux divergence computed as a residual.
• The atmospheric moisture transport from ocean to land is obtained by integratingthe moisture flux divergence over the global land area.
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Climatological mean ocean to land moisture transport
Observations from ERA-Interim reanalysis (Trenberth and Fasullo, 2013)
Annual mean global landQCONV :
CMIP5 multimodel mean:2.9 PW
Observed:2.7 PW
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Ocean to land moisture transport in different reanalyses
ERA-40 CFSR
ERA-I
JRA
NCEP-1
Trenberth and Fasullo, 2013
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Ocean to land moisture transport in different reanalyses
ERA-40 CFSR
ERA-I
JRA
NCEP-1
Trenberth and Fasullo, 2013
El ChichónPinatubo
‘97-’98 El Niño
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Ocean to land moisture transport in different reanalyses
ERA-40 CFSR
ERA-I
JRA
NCEP-1
Trenberth and Fasullo, 2013
El ChichónPinatubo
‘97-’98 El Niño
Are multidecadal changes in moisture transport due to changes in theobserving system, internal variability, and/or external forcing?
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CMIP5 historical simulations
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CMIP5 historical simulations
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Moisture transport sensitivity to GHG and aerosol forcing
dQ/dT ~ 3.6 %/K
dQ/dT ~ 2.0 %/K
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More evidence for increased sensitivity to aerosols
O’Gorman et al., 2011
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Trenberth et al., 2009
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Trenberth et al., 2009
RATM
LH+SHNet atmospheric radiative cooling, RATM , is balanced by the turbulent transfer of latentand sensible heat from the surface to the atmosphere (LH+SH).
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Trenberth et al., 2009
RATM
LH+SHNet atmospheric radiative cooling, RATM , is balanced by the turbulent transfer of latentand sensible heat from the surface to the atmosphere (LH+SH).Due to the atmosphere’s small heat capacity, perturbations to RATM (e.g., resulting fromexternal forcing) require a “fast” compensating response of the surface turbulent fluxes.
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Trenberth et al., 2009
RATM
LH+SHNet atmospheric radiative cooling, RATM , is balanced by the turbulent transfer of latentand sensible heat from the surface to the atmosphere (LH+SH).Due to the atmosphere’s small heat capacity, perturbations to RATM (e.g., resulting fromexternal forcing) require a “fast” compensating response of the surface turbulent fluxes.To first order: ΔRATM ~ ΔLH = LΔP, where P is global mean precipitation.
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Vertical distribution of radiative forcing
Data from Andrews et al., 2010
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Slow (temperature dependent) response of the global hydrological cycle
Previdi, 2010
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21st century anthropogenic GHG/aerosol forcing in CMIP5 RCP scenarios
Meinshausen et al., 2011
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CMIP5 RCP8.5 simulations
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Implications: land carbon storage
Friedlingstein et al., 2006
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Implications: ice sheet mass balance
Bindschadler et al., 2013
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Conclusions• Analysis of CMIP5 “single forcing” experiments suggests that
anthropogenic aerosol changes were the dominant driver of long-term (multidecadal) forced changes in ocean to land moisture transport during the 20th century (although forced changes still small compared to internal variability).
• The sensitivity of the moisture transport to aerosol forcing was estimated to be nearly twice that of GHG forcing (per degree of warming).
• In the 21st century, CMIP5 models project a significant (~ 0.4 PW, or 14%) increase in ocean to land moisture transport in response to rising GHG amounts and decreasing anthropogenic aerosol forcing (would be good to examine alternative future scenarios for aerosol emissions).
• The projected increase in moisture transport would have important implications for land precipitation, and also potentially land carbon storage and ice sheet mass balance (relevant for paleoclimatic change as well).