how will the global hydrological cycle change will the global hydrological cycle change with...
TRANSCRIPT
2
The hydrological cycle is an
important part of the climate
system, and its change and vari-
ability have great implications not
only for feedback processes in the
climate system, but also in terms
of the impact on human life.
Particularly in Monsoon Asia,
where more than half of the
world's population reside, people
depend heavily upon rain and will
be affected by its variability and
extremes (i.e., floods, droughts
etc.) in the monsoon season.
In the past several decades, par-
ticularly in the recent two decades
(1980s through 1990s), the global or
hemispheric mean surface tempera-
ture has remarkably increased, as
reported in the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
report. Under some scenarios of the
anthropogenically-induced green-
house gas increase, most of the
state-of-the-art climate models have
predicted surface-temperature
increases of 3 to 5 ℃/decade by the
end of 21st century. These models
have also predicted an increase in
global precipitation and facilitation
of the hydrological cycle. The range
of predicted values within the mod-
els, however, is far larger than that
of the temperature, due to many
How Will the Global Hydrological Cycle Change
with "Global Warming"?
Dr. Yasunari, Program Director of Hydrological Cycle Research Program, FRSGC and FORSGC, who has received 2002Meteorological Society of Japan's Fujiwara Award, will explain the effect of global warming on the global hydrological cycle.
Tetsuzo YASUNARI ( Program Director, Hydrological Cycle Research Program, FRSGC and FORSGC )
In this edition, we would like to introduce various researches conducted at FRSGC/FORSGC, under the theme"Our Life, Our Water."
Special Topic : Our Life, Our WaterSpecial Topic : Our Life, Our Water
CMAP,GPCP annual (Nov.-Oct.) precipitation
(a) time sequence (1979-1999)
(b) CMAP linear trend (1979-1999)
(c) GPCP linear trend (1979-1999)
[unit:mm/day/10yr]
[mm]10101000
990980970960950940930920910900
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998
-1.0 -0.2 0.2 1.090
60
30
0
-30
-60
90
60
30
0
-30
-60
90
60
30
0
-30
-60
90
60
30
0
-30
-60
Figure 1 Time series of global mean CMAP (black bar) and GPCP (white
bar) annual precipitation (November to October) for the period
from 1979 to 1999. Linear trend values for CMAP and GPCP are
plotted with solid and broken lines, respectively. (Yasunari,
Igarashi, Tomita, and Masuda, 2002).
3No.19
Jul. 2002No.19
Jul. 2002Frontier NewsletterFrontier Newsletter
unresolved problems and uncer-
tainties in the hydrological process-
es, such as interactions between
cloud/precipitation systems and
land/ocean surface processes.
We have examined the recent
change and trends of hydrological
parameters using the two sets of
nearly homogeneous precipitation
data for the global domain. One
data set is from the Climate
Prediction Center Merged
Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP),
and the other is from the Global
Precipitation Climatology Project
(GPCP) for the same period from
1979 to 2000.
Time series of global-mean pre-
cipitation from the two data sets
for the period from 1979 to 1999
were computed for the whole
year, as shown in Figure 1. The
significant decreasing linear
trends are noticeable in the time
series for CMAP data, whereas no
decreasing or increasing trend is
seen for GPCP time series.
Caution may be needed for this
type of time-series analysis when
the data have been merged and
edited by using different data
source for a different period, but
we should also emphasize that
both sets of data DO NOT show
any increasing trends. The
decreasing trend is mostly attrib-
uted to that over the tropical
ocean areas (Yasunari et al.,
2002). In a broad region of Siberia,
where the recent warming trend is
most remarkable, no increasing or
decreasing trend in precipitation
has been noted either in winter
or summer, though a dominant
period of 6 to 8 years is seen in
summer as shown in Figure 2
(Fukutomi et al., 2002). In the
Monsoon Asian region, large dif-
ferences in trends and decadal-
scale changes are noticeable both
in their regionality and seasonali-
ty, though further intensive study
is really needed.
These discrepancies between
the model predictions and the
observational results strongly
urge us to promote further moni-
toring of the global hydrological
cycle by in-situ and satellite obser-
vations, intensive studies of
hydro-meteorological processes
in the atmosphere and at
land/ocean surfaces, and develop-
ment of high-resolution climate
models with more sophisticated
hydrological processes.
(a) Lena river basin (JJA)
(b) Yenisey river basin (JJA)
(c) Ob river basin (JJA)
-50
0
50
(mm
mon
th-1
)(m
m m
onth
-1)
(mm
mon
th-1
)
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95
-50
0
50
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95
-50
0
50
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95
Year
Precipitation
Precipitation
Precipitation
Evaporation
Evaporation
Evaporation
Moisture flux convergence
Moisture flux convergence
Moisture flux convergence
Runoff (JAS)
Runoff (JAS)
Runoff (JAS)
Figure 2 Figure 2. (a) Interannual variability of summer water balance
components for the Lena River basin from 1979 to 1995. (b) As
in (a), except for the Yenisey basin. (c) As in (a), except for the
Ob basin (Fukutomi, Igarashi, Masuda, and Yasunari, 2002).
4
The 21st century is
called the "century
of water." That is
because there are
regions where water
scarcity results in
poverty, poor sanitary
conditions, and dis-
ease, and anticipated
population growth will
increase the demand
for potable water in
urban areas and irriga-
tion water for crop
production. Economic
growth will induce an
increase in the con-
sumption of cereal
crops and also increase
the water demand.
An accurate future
projection for the sup-
ply and demand of water is essen-
tial for the adoption of suitable
alternatives to cope with such con-
cerns. Water demand in the future is
estimated by considering the
increase of unit demand of water
that accompanies population
growth and economic development.
On the other hand, nowadays, water
supply in the future is commonly
estimated using general circulation
models that consider climate
change such as global warming.
Figure 1 illustrates the change in
annual river discharge estimated
from the results of the general
circulation model developed by the
Center for Climate System Research
(CCSR), University of Tokyo and the
National Institute for Environmental
Studies (NIES). The runoff from the
model is used to calculate the river
discharge using a global river chan-
nel network and a river routing
model (Saruhashi, 2001). Primary
factors affecting the future water cri-
sis are believed to be the societal
ones such as population growth,
with the effects of climatic change as
secondary factors. However, a slight
increase in precipitation and runoff
is estimated for the northern part of
China, close to the Yellow river
basin, as shown in Figure 1, and the
future water stress in the region is
estimated to be less than it would be
without climate change. Conversely,
water stress will increase due to cli-
mate change in the west of the Black
Sea and around the Florida
Peninsula in North America.
In this result of global warming
World Water Resources and
Global Climate Change
Considering the global water issue as a problem closely related to us, Dr. Oki, also serving as a assistant professor of ResearchInstitute for Humanity and Nature, will explain the need of accurate research output through climate model and "virtual water".
Taikan OKI ( Researcher, Hydrological Cycle Research Program, FRSGC )
Change in Annual River DischargeUnder Global Warming Condition
2060 - 1990
210゜ 240゜ 270゜ 300゜ 330゜ 0゜ 30゜ 60゜ 90゜ 120゜ 150゜ 180゜
60゜
30゜
0゜
-30゜
-60゜
-5000 -1000 -500 -100 -10 10 100 500 1000 5000
Double CO2 - current［106m3 /year/ 0.5 g゚rid］
Figure 1 Estimated change in annual river discharge based on the runoff simulation under global warming condi-
tions in 2060 using an atmospheric general circulation model of CCSR, Univ. of Tokyo and NIES. A global
river channel network and a river routing model was used.
5No.19
Jul. 2002No.19
Jul. 2002Frontier NewsletterFrontier Newsletter
simulation, global mean precipita-
tion and runoff increase, and the
water stress in the future is estimat-
ed to be alleviated on a global scale.
However, there is another research
result that suggests future water
stress will become more serious
due to global warming. Eliminating
the uncertainty in the prediction of
detailed geographical distribution
and quantity of increase and
decrease in precipitation and runoff
is much anticipated.
On the other hand, upstream
water withdrawal, deterioration
of water quality, and the shortage of
social infrastructure limit the avail-
ability of water resources (Oki,
2001), and such social factors
should be considered in an assess-
ment of world water resources.
Even though future projections of
the water supply in some areas of
the world seem very
serious, in Japan, no
population growth is
predicted, agricultural
production is decreas-
ing, and industrial water
use is not increasing, so
there is no concern
about a future water cri-
sis as a whole. However,
Japan should still care
about the anticipated
water crisis in the world.
One of the major rea-
sons is that Japan
imports many agricultur-
al and industrial prod-
ucts from abroad, and
these products consume
local water resources in
the country of origin. In
a sense, importing goods and using
them is just like importing and con-
suming "virtual water."
Miyake (2002) estimated that 8m3
of water is used to produce 1kg of
polished rice and 4m3 of water is
used to produce 1kg of flour if pro-
duced in Japan using irrigation.
Considering the water required to
cultivate feed cereals to feed live-
stock for meat needs several times
more water resources by weight.
Based on the estimates of unit water
consumption, the total annual import
of virtual water to Japan is illustrated
in Figure 2. The total annual import
of virtual water to Japan accounts
for approximately 100 billion m3 and
it is comparable with total national
water use of 90 billion m3 per year. It
is not surprising since the self-suffi-
ciency ratio for food in Japan is 40%
by calorie base. However, Figure 2
shows that Japanese should consid-
er the world water problem as an
issue closely related to thier daily
lives thus Japan should encourage
research on the current and future
situation of global water resources.
References
Saruhashi, T. (2001): Global Water
Resources Assessment Using Total
Runoff Integrating Pathways,
Master's thesis, Graduate School of
Engineering, University of Tokyo.
Oki, T., Y. Agata, S. Kanae, T. Saruhashi,
D. Yang, and K. Musiake (2001):
Global Assessment of Current
Water Resources using the Total
Runoff Integrating Pathways.
Hydrol. Sci. J., 46, 983-996.
Miyake, M. (2002): International Trade
of Virtual Water to and from
Japan, Graduate thesis, Faculty of
Engineering, University of Tokyo.
Total Import of Virtual Water to Japan
5410
596155
256 27
Other：72
Share of virtual waterImport to Japan
Pork
Beef45.3%
Wheat
Corn
Soy
4.3%
16.0%
12.4%
18.6%
Domestic Withdrawals in Japan：89.0 bil.m3/yearTotal：103.5 bil.m3/year
Figure 2 Import of virtual water to Japan. The figures illustrate how much water would be required if these goods
were produced in Japan.
6
The government of Sri Lanka has
a decision to make. Sri Lanka
generates 60% of electricity from
hydropower, which is cheaper than
oil or coal. It would like to maximize
its hydropower generation by con-
structing an additional dam on the
Mahaweli River. There are two
potential sites near Talawakelle; one
has greater hydro-electricity poten-
tial (125 MW) but greater financial
and environmental costs than the
other site, which has a smaller gen-
eration potential (90MW) but has
also less social and environmental
costs. The suitable choice would
have to be based on a careful assess-
ment of costs, benefits and risks.
This project is to be financed with a
loan from the Government of Japan.
Viability of new dams is tradition-
ally assessed based on historical
stream flow and rainfall records.
Now the consensus of scientific
opinion is that global warming is
indeed happening. Such warming is
also evident in Sri Lanka. Many resi-
dents and water managers feel that
there is less water in the springs
and in the stream. The existing
reservoirs constructed on the basis
of historical stream flow have only
filled up three times in two decades.
Indeed, while there are large year-
to-year fluctuations, the stream flow
in the Mahaweli is indeed declining.
But is this decline due to deforesta-
tion, siltation, environmental degra-
dation, construction of reservoirs or
to climate change? These are ques-
tions that need immediate answers.
Indeed, the rainfall too declines so
Questions for Climate Science from
the Mahaweli Water Managers
Dr. Lareef, originally from Sri Lanka, is a researcher of the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction in New York.He stayed at the FRSGC as a visiting researcher for three months. He will introduce the current problem Sri Lanka government isfacing regarding the dam construction and the need of the climate modeling research in the future.
Lareef ZUBAIR ( Visiting Scientist, Climate Variations Research Program, FRSGC, and Researcher, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, New York, USA )
IndiaBay
of
Bengal
Gulf
of
Mannar
Indian
Ocean
Palk
Bay
Colombo
Victoria Reservoir
Talawakelle
Mahaweli River
Sri Lanka
The Mahaweli is the longest river in Sri Lanka and it carries water from the so-called Wet
Zone where water is plentiful to the Dry Zone. A reservoir was built at Victoria for irrigation
and hydropower generation in 1985.
7No.19
Jul. 2002No.19
Jul. 2002Frontier NewsletterFrontier Newsletter
that climate change is indeed at play
here. But the water managers still
have many questions. Will the
trends continue? Is it reversible? Will
the frequency of floods and drought
change? What is the role of El Niño
and such climatic variability? Will
there be decadal variations?
These questions are examples of
the challenges that climate change
poses to policy makers, water man-
agers, farmers and ordinary people.
The traditional approach to water
resources planning is based on a
stable climate. Now, the methods
used to optimize risk is not valid.
The guidelines used for operating
reservoirs are suspect. Indeed, one
cannot act based on our past history
anymore.
These are such questions that
researches such as at Frontier
Research System for Global Change
can answer. A particular difficulty in
using contemporary climate model-
ing work is the need to interpret
from the 250-km scale of global
models to what happens at a few
kilometer scales in the Mahaweli
basin. For example, Sri Lanka is
only 270-km wide and 400-km long
and is covered by only 4 grid boxes
in contemporary global climate
models. The climate however varies
drastically within these boxes.
Hence research from the high-reso-
lution work of the Earth Simulator
(where Sri Lanka would be covered
by 700 grid boxes), will be particu-
larly useful.
Looking from the Mahaweli river
basin, one sees concretely that the
water managers are severely chal-
lenged by climate change and cli-
mate variability. Understanding
climate and environment at suffi-
ciently small scales is necessary to
understand hydrological variability
and change that matters to the soci-
ety at large. Along with develop-
ment in climate and hydrological
sciences, a paradigm shift in water
resources design, and management
and policy formulation is required
to harness our ability to predict
environmental variability and to
adapt to a changing climate. But all
these changes are yet to come; so
Sri Lanka decided to build the larger
dam this year.
The Victoria reservoir and powerhouse on the Mahaweli river has the largest hydro-electricity capacity in Sri Lanka. The picture on the
left is the Victoria when it was full in late 1980's. Over the last 50 years, the stream flow into the Victoria has declined by 40% and rain-
fall has declined by 30%. Much of Victoria's capacity cannot be used as was the case during the last year (photograph on the right).
VictoriaReservoir
We would like to introduce Dr. Julia Hargreaves, a new researcher
in the paleoclimate group.
Exactly one year ago I came to FRSGC to work as a visiting scien-
tist in the paleoclimate group of the Global Warming Research
Program. Prior to coming to Japan, I worked as a researcher at the
Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory near Liverpool in the UK for 6
years, studying ocean surface waves, with emphasis on the effects
of climate change and impacts on the coastal environment. During
my sabbatical, I have focussed on analysing paleo-data with the aim
of gaining understanding the ice age terminations. Now I am
employed as a Researcher and I am becoming more involved with
the work program of the group. My particular interest is in under-
standing the mechanisms and feed-
backs responsible for the very large
climate changes apparent in the
paleo-record over the last half-mil-
lion years or so. At a technical
level, my work tends to be in the
area of model-data comparison.
8
Climate Variations Research ProgramClimate Variations Research Program
Hydrological Cycle Research ProgramHydrological Cycle Research Program
Global Warming Research ProgramGlobal Warming Research Program
Atmospheric Composition Research ProgramAtmospheric Composition Research Program
Earth Simulator, the fastest supercomputer in the world, is finally
operational since April, 2002. With this computer, active collaborative
research has been conducted between the Earth Simulator Center and
the Frontier Research System for Global Change. In Climate Variations
Research Program, two researchers, Drs. Yamane and Kagimoto have
been playing the leading role of this joint research. Dr. Yamane is carry-
ing out a detailed calculation of the meso-scale phenomena such as
tropical storm and Baiu-front at global scale, using a super high resolu-
tion atmospheric general circulation model with triangular truncations of
T639 and T1279 (which correspond to 20km and 10km horizontal resolu-
tion, respectively). This model is called AFES and is based on
CCSR/NIES model. Meanwhile, Dr. Kagimoto is simulating the realistic
ocean circulation system with the super high-resolution (approximately
10km horizontal resolution) ocean general circulation model based on
the Princeton Ocean Model, which is called PFES. The research will
excite us soon by providing microscopic view of Earth climate system.
In the Spring Conference on Japan Meteorological Society held in 22-24
May at Omiya, Japan, presenters from our program were; Program Director
Dr. Yasunari, Group Leaders Drs. Kimura and Fujiyoshi, as well as Drs.
Yamasaki, Takata, Suzuki, Endo, Ju, Fukutomi, Yoshikane, and Iwabuchi.
Dr. Ma of Land Surface Processes and Land Atmosphere Interaction
Group joined the Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting 2002 held at New
Zealand in July, and presented his research on dry and semiarid areas in
Mongolia.
In the Cloud and Precipitation Group, Group Leader Dr. Fujiyoshi par-
ticipated in the Workshop on Japan-China Precipitation System
Observational Research held in Hainan Province, China from 23-26 April
and presented the research result on the model comparison experiment
on meso-disturbance developed over the Baiu Front. Dr. Nakamura
joined the workshop on GEWEX Cloud System Studies (GCSS) in
Kananaskis and presented the result of the analysis and numerical simu-
lation of some disturbances observed during WMO-01.
In April, Dr. Iwabuchi joined the Cloud and Precipitation Group. He is
conducting his research, both from Observation and model perspectives,
regarding the effects of three- dimensional radiative transmission on
radiative characteristics of the clouds.
Program Director, H. Akimoto attended "Air Pollution as a Climate
Forcing Workshop" held in Honolulu during Aril 29 and May 3, midst
of Golden Week. The venue was East West Center located in the cam-
pus of University of Hawaii. The workshop was co-sponsored by IPRC
together with NASA, NOAA, EPA, etc., and IPRC staff members took
care of more than 100 participants. The workshop theme was a link
between non-CO2
air pollutants such as methane, ozone and aerosol,
and climate change. Wide range of topics including atmospheric
chemistry, mitigation technology, and health effects were discussed.
Akimoto met all Japanese members of IPRC during a session interval
as well as the IPRC Director, Dr. McCeary, at the reception. It was very
good to have had a chance to get acquainted directly with IPRC with
which we usually do not have close contact.
Program Activity
9No.19
Jul. 2002No.19
Jul. 2002Frontier NewsletterFrontier Newsletter
International Pacific Research Center (IPRC)International Pacific Research Center (IPRC)
International Arctic Research Center (IARC)International Arctic Research Center (IARC)
The IPRC hosted a workshop on Air Pollution, April 29-May 3,
2002. This event was followed May 17-18 by the Second Annual IPRC
Symposium.
As for our researches, S. Xie (IPRC) and H. Hashizume (JPL) have
described the first-ever measurements of the effects of tropical instabili-
ty waves (TIWs) on the atmosphere. They showed that over the cold
meanders associated with the TIWs, the atmosphere is colder and verti-
cal mixing is suppressed, resulting in stronger wind shear and weaker
surface winds. N. Maximenko (IPRC) and P. Niiler (Scripps) have devel-
oped a 1/4 degrees spatial resolution map of the mean sea level in the
Kuroshio Extension region, using drifter data and the sea level anomaly
from satellite altimetry data. X. Fu, B. Wang, T. Li, and J. McCreary
(IPRC) have studied the predictability of the rainy and dry spells during
the monsoon's travel across Asia, which are closely tied to the north-
ward propagating intraseasonal oscillation. They suggested that rainy
spells are predictable from sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean.
On 18th March, IARC Workshop was held at Yokohama Institute for
Earth Sciences. Dr. Motoyoshi Ikeda, IARC Program Director, and Dr.
Noriyuki Tanaka, IARC Multi Disciplinary Group's Leader, served as con-
veyors. Participants were researchers from Frontier Research System for
Global Change, Frontier Observation Research System for Global
Change, Geophysical Institute of University of Alaska, Japan Marine
Science and Technology Center, National Institute of Polar Research,
Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, and Institute of Low
Temperature Science of Hokkaido University. 32 oral and 8 poster pre-
sentations were made. The Workshop consisted of six main sessions,
namely, climate variability, atmospheric process and interaction with
land and sea ice, ocean-ice physics and dynamics, poster sessions, and
ocean-ice bio-geochemistry. Very lively cross-cutting discussions among
various fields of atmosphere, ocean, sea-ice, land physics, chemistry, and
biology were conducted throughout the day. Researchers from IARC
Frontier, and FORSGC made presentations on their research results, and
exchanged ideas and opinions with the domestic polar research groups.
In May, a new researcher, Dr. Michiyo Yamamoto joined the FORSGC
IARC Multi Disciplinary Group from Graduate School of Environmental
Earth Science of Hokkaido University.
Ecosystem Change Research ProgramEcosystem Change Research Program
Integrated Modeling Research ProgramIntegrated Modeling Research Program
At FRSG/FORSGC Annual Symposium 2002 held in March, two pre-
sentations were made from our Program: Followed by the Overall
Introduction of this year's activity by Program Director Dr. Yasuoka, one
of our researchers, Dr. Ito made his presentation on the role of plants
and soils in the global carbon cycle. In addition, Drs. Tadokoro, Ono,
and Chiba gave a poster presentation to report the recent marine
ecosystem change in the North Pacific. Since biology/ecology is the
theme familiar and interesting to general public, we have very positive
feedback from the audience, as shown in the questionnaire.
Soon after in April, our researchers Drs. Komori and Kubo have trans-
ferred to Hokkaido National Fisheries Research Institute and Hokkaido
University respectively. We are feeling a bit lonely as our already very
small group has shrunk to only 6 members.
In order to understand the various studies conducted at Ecosystem
Change Research Program, it is important to know that living organisms
will not always act passively to the environmental change, but the
change of the living organisms will affect the global environment. For
example, absorption capacity in the atmospheric CO2
by the ocean will
be affected by the role of plankton. On the other hand, the fact that
compared to physical/chemical processes, there still exist a lot of uncer-
tainties in the biological/ecological processes, makes prediction of glob-
al environmental change. Therefore, even though our Program has a
few members, we still have a lot to research.
For the prediction and research of the mid- to long-term climate change,
it is inevitable to improve the performance of the ocean model. Especially,
it is necessary to develop a high-resolution ocean model in order to resolve
meso-scale eddies, which are well known to play significant role in the
transport of heat and other substances in the ocean. The ocean model
group in our program is developing a high-performance parallel general
ocean circulation code, UMI-1. Its computational speed has reached 3.5
TFLOPS on the Earth Simulator using 1024 CPUs (c.f. abstract of Parallel
Computational Fluid Dynamic Conference 2002). In addition, we must also
improve physical parameterizations to cope with these high-resolution
models. One of the most essential issues about it is on the parameteriza-
tion of the bottom topographic effect, which directly controls the intensity of
the large-scale meridional circulation. Our group has improved the "Bottom
Boundary Layer Scheme" in the ocean model to reproduce the realistic
entrainment on the continental sloop and obtained several new findings.
Furthermore, for the improvement of physical parameterization, a data
assimilation method is also effective. We are preparing to estimate physical
coefficients in the some parameterizations using optimization theory.
10
The Indonesian maritime continent
is one of the regions that experi-
ence the most rainfall in the world.
Atmosphere over this region drives the
global circulations, i.e., the east-west
Walker circulation and the south-north
Hadley circulation, through the fre-
quent convective cloud activity.
Regardless of the extremely important
position this region holds in terms of
climate mechanisms, including the
Asian Monsoon System, as an "aerial
crossroads" of water and energy circu-
lations, remarkably limited surface
meteorological and aerological obser-
vation data is available. Therefore, con-
tinuous in situ observation and analysis
of meteorological data in this region
are being counted on not only in view
of climate change prediction research,
but also towards improving cumulus
parameterization techniques, validation
of satellite observation data, and so on.
Currently, our research group has
established the Kototabang observatory
in Sumatra Island (Fig. 1) as a base sta-
tion to develop high-accuracy meteoro-
logical observations that can resolve the
diurnal variation predominant in the
tropical equatorial region. Particularly,
for the first time in this region, we have
been conducting Global Positioning
System (GPS) rawinsonde observations
(Fig. 2) that take measurements every 3
to 6 hours during campaigns, totaling
more than 100 days over a one-year peri-
od. Based on these observations, we are
investigating the interaction between the
detailed variations in the atmospheric
structure and mesoscale phenomena,
such as the torrential rainfall peculiar to
tropical regions, and their relationship
with ENSO and other large-scale climate
change systems. Furthermore, we have
adopted advanced methods using GPS
for observations of short-term variations
in precipitable water and stable isotope
studies of water, and have been simul-
taneously conducting investigations into
the recycling process and water vapor
transport across the wide area covering
Thailand, Nepal, Tibet, and Siberia.
Indonesia is subject to many natural
disasters, such as large-scale forest fires
during El Niño periods, and severe rain-
fall and floods during La Niña periods.
Indonesian government thus has high
expectations of Japan's observational
research activities. Our goal is not only to
serve important meteorological process
studies that will improve climate change
prediction research, but also to produce
scientific output, such as disaster-pre-
venting information, that can benefit the
local community as a part of Japan's
international cooperation.
Observational Research of Large-Scale
Hydrological Cycle and Processes Centered
on the Indonesian Maritime Continent
Shuichi MORI ( Researcher, Hydrological Cycle Observational Research Program, FORSGC )
0 6 12 18 240
1
2
3
–2
0
2Kototabang NOV 2001
: u : v: Specific humidity
Rain
fall (
mm
/hr)
Local Time (hour)
An
om
aly
(m
/s, g
/kg
)
TRMM 3G68 Annual Mean 1998–200010N
5N
EQ
5S
10S90E 95E 100E 105E 110E
–2000 –1500 –1000 –500 –200 200 500 1000 1500 2000
(mm/year)
Difference of Rainfall between Evening Rain 12–23LST and Morning Rain 00–11LST
Fig. 1 Diurnal variation of rainfall around Sumatra Island observed by TRMM satellite (left panel). Distinct contrastof rainfall characteristics is shown between over the land and its adjacent sea area. Rawinsonde data at Kototabangobservatory (indicated by the cross (+): 0.2S, 100.3E) shows clear diurnal variations of wind and humidity suggestingclose relation with that of rainfall (right panel).
Fig 2. Prior to launching the GPS rawinsonde observation balloon at the Kototabang observatory by local stuff (rightpanel), and precise profiles of observed data in November 2001 with 10m resolution in height (left panel).
30
25
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15
5
10
0-90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 10 200
Temperature (deg)
Specific Humidity (g/kg)
Zonal Wind (m/s)
Meridional Wind (m/s)
He
igh
t (k
m)
11No.19
Jul. 2002No.19
Jul. 2002Frontier NewsletterFrontier Newsletter
The first joint workshop was held
by the FORSGC in cooperation
with the Chinese Academy of
Meteorological Sciences from April
24 to 27 in 2002 at Haikou City,
Hainan Province, China.
With completion of Japan-China col-
laborative field experiment in 2001,
during this workshop, participants
discussed their research results, situa-
tion of the Baiu observation research
activities carried out in China, and the
observation plan for this fiscal year.
Dr. Hiroshi Hotta, Director-General
of FORSGC gave a speech to express
his appreciation for efforts provided
by China and mentioned the signifi-
cance of the workshop.
Group leader Hiroshi Uyeda, sub-
leader Dr. Biao Geng, researchers
Dr. Hiroyuki Yamada and Krishna K.
Reddy delivered presentations on
their observational researches based
on the results obtained through
observations conducted up to now.
The Japanese delegation presented
the observational results
from the Doppler radar
and wind profiler showing
close correlations between
the precipitation system
occurring in the down-
stream of Yangtze (Chiang
Jiang) River and rainfalls
in western Japan.
Afterwards, we accom-
panied Dr. Hotta to visit
the Wuxian, Dongshan, and Wujiang
observation sites located around
Suzhou city. The local observational
activities and observation equip-
ments were explained to Dr. Hotta
by each researcher. They discussed
the issues related to the observation
and research activities for this fiscal
year.
The workshop and the visit to the
observation sites were extremely
helpful to promote the observations
in the downstream of Yangtze River.
The research group is continuing
observations in the downstream of
Yangtze River from June this year.
The First Workshop on Japan-China Precipitation
System Observational Research
Hiroshi UYEDA ( Group Leader, Hydrological Cycle Observation Research Program, FORSGC )
Introduction of the Business of AESTOIntroduction of the Business of AESTO
Visit to local site.
FORSGC Director-General, Dr. H. Hotta delivering opening
remarks.
Advanced Earth Science and Technology Organization (AESTO) is doing the publication
work of some publications of JAMSTEC from June, 2002. This work is consignment work
from the Computer and Information Department of JAMSTEC. The following publication
are included to this consignment work, (1) JAMSTEC Technical Report (2) JAMSTEC Deep
sea Research (twice a year publication) (3) Japanese Annual Report and (4) Annual Report
(once a year publication). AESTO does the work regarding the publication such as
manuscripts invites, DTP (Desk Top Publishing) and proofreading. AESTO also started
the updating work of the homepage at JAMSTEC. The publications and homepage are very
important because the many people are always watching it. We not only keep a publication
date, but have to guarantee quality of the DTP and the homepage contents. Therefore, in
addition to present staffs, AESTO is going to employ and training DTP staffs and a
homepage designer.
We are very happy with the fact
that of five recipients of
Meteorological Society of Japan's
(MSJ) Society Award and Fujiwara
Award for this year, three were fron-
tier-related scientists.
Specifically, Program Director Dr.
Tetsuzo Yasunari, Hydrological Cycle
Research Program (HCRP) of Frontier
Research System for Global Change
(FRSGC), and Hydrological Cycle
Observation Program of Frontier
Observation Research Program
(FORSGC), and Sub-Group Leader of
HCRP, FRSGC, Dr. Masanori Yamasaki
both received the 2002 Fujiwara
Awards. Along with the two Fujiwara
Awards recipients, Dr. Shang-Ping
Xie, Researcher of International Pacific
Research Center (IPRC) of FRSGC, first
time as the non-Japanese member,
received the Society Award.
Dr. Yasunari, also serving as a
Professor of University of Tsukuba,
has been contributing greatly to the
research of monsoon system. With
the receipt of the Fujiwara Award, for
the first time in Japan, he has
received all three honorable awards
from MSJ, namely Yamamoto-Syono
Award for Outstanding Papers (1981)
and the Society Award (1986). This
time, his recognized achievement
was under "Promotion of Asian
Monsoon researches, based on
GAME projects." He has contributed
greatly to the execution of the
International Scientific Project for the
first time in Asia, and training and
education of young scientists.
Dr. Yamasaki has been carrying out
the research on typhoons and convec-
tion for a long time. This time, his work
on "numerical experimental research
on typhoons and tropical disturbances"
has been recognized. His researches,
based on numerical experiments on the
formation and development of typhoon,
using a model which directly resolve
clouds, as well as development of a
numerical model which implicitly treats
cumulus convection, were highly appre-
ciated. Dr. Yamasaki received the
Society Award in 1972.
Dr. Xie is a co-team-leader of IPRC
and an associate professor of meteor-
ology at University of Hawaii. The
Society Award recognizes his contri-
butions to the understanding of
ocean-atmosphere interaction that
shapes the climate and its variability.
He also received the Yamamoto-
Shono Award for best research article
from the Meteorological Society of
Japan in 1996.
Date of issue : July 31, 2002Issue : Joint Promotion Office, Frontier Research System for Global ChangeTEL : +81-45-778-5687 FAX : +81-45-778-5497 For inquiries : Attn. Mr.Sato and Ms. OtaHomepage : http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/ E-mail address for inquiries : [email protected]
Editing & Framing : Advanced Earth Science and Technology Organization (AESTO)
This Newsletter adopts reproduced paper recognized by the Eco-mark organization.
Frontier Newsletter No.19 July 2002
Three FRSGC/FORSGC Participants Received
the 2002 Society Award and Fujiwara Award
from Meteorological Society of Japan
FRSGC's Visitors for IGCR Formal SeminarFRSGC's Visitors for IGCR Formal Seminar
Professor Jen-Ping Chen, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan UniversityDr. Kikuro Miyakoda, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), NOAA Dr. William K. M. Lau, Head, Climate and Radiation Branch NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Eileen Lavonne Shea, Climate Project Coordinator, East-West Center Dr. Michio Yanai, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles Dr. Lie-Yauw Oey, Scientist, AOS Program, Princeton University Prof. Dr. Hans von Storch, GKSS Reseach Centre, Germany
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