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Forecasting Production and Estimation Reserves in Unconventional Gas Reservoirs

Dr. John Lee Regents Professor of Petroleum Engineering Texas A&M University

• ExaminetheapplicabilityoftheArpsdeclinecurvemodel and consider alternatives that may be more appropriate

• Assessthebenefitsofintegratingvolumetricandperformancebasedassessmenttechniques when working in unconventional reservoirs

• Determineprovedareas in unconventional resource plays

• Ensureregulatorycompliance by examining the systems of the ASC and SEC, and consider the best ways to classify PUDs

• Makevolumetricestimatesasaccurateaspossible by examining the complex geology and characteristics of shale gas and CBM plays

• Maintaininternalcontroloverreserveestimation and establish an audit trail

IanMcDonald(ConferenceChairman) Internal Qualified Reserves Evaluator Nexen Inc

PaulLupardus Director Corporate Reserves ChesapeakeEnergy


DavidFulford Senior Reservoir Engineer, Planning and Reserves Devon Energy

MikeAdams Internal Qualified Reserves Evaluator Talisman Energy

Samantha Meador Business Opportunity Manager, New Ventures/New Business Shell

Dr Michael Hohn Director and State Geologist West Virginia Geological and Economic Survey

Louis Mattar President FeketeAssociatesInc.

David Pena Senior Reservoir Engineer HessCorporation

KurtSteffen Senior Exploration Geologist ExxonMobil

Benefits of attending

Workshops: 22nd August 2011

Expert speaker panel includes

Lead sponsor

Book early and

save up to $700

Increase reserve estimation accuracy and ensure regulatory compliance when working with unconventional resources

22nd-24th August 2011, Houston

Reserve Estimation for Unconventional Resources

Tel: +1 212 537 5898


Reserve Estimation for Unconventional Resources Houston 22nd-24th August 2011

Areyouemployingthemosteffectivemethodologyforestimatingreserves in unconventional reservoirs?Complex geology, a lack of historical production data and the potential inapplicability of conventional estimation techniques are just a few of the issues that create challenges when attempting to calculate reserve estimates in unconventional reservoirs.Reserve Estimation for Unconventional Resources will provide you with the opportunity to explore these challenges alongside your industry peers. The agenda encompasses both the intricate technicalities of reserve estimation alongside the issues surrounding reporting and classification. This meeting will explore the views of leading industry figures, regulatory bodies and leading academics to provide an overview of best practice for reserve estimation when working in unconventional reservoirs.

AttendReserveEstimationforUnconventionalResourcesand:

• EnhanceyourunderstandingoftechniquesforapplyingtheArps decline curve model to unconventional reservoirs. Devon Energy discuss the modifications they have made to the Arps equation to model the transition from linear flow to boundary dominated flow

• ConsideralternativestotheArpsequation. Dr. John Lee will discuss the applicability of semi-analytical models such as the ‘long duration linear-flow’ model

• Embracethebenefitsofcombiningbothvolumetricsand performancebasedassessmentforacomprehensiveassessment ofunconventionalreservoirs. ExxonMobil examine this technique for utilising the information available in an effective manner

• Assessreservoirsimulationmethodsforuseinunconventional reservoirs. Look at numerical model gridding techniques and discrete fracture network modelling integration with HessCorporation

• Ensureyouaredeterminingyourprovedresourcesaccurately andcorrectlycomplyingwithSECandASCregulation. Join Chesapeakeand Talisman Energy to establish best techniques for booking PUDS and making assessments as accurate as possible

• Establishbestpracticeforinternalprocessestoensurereserves estimations are correctly validated. Nexen will discuss the control frameworks they have implemented

This conference will be tailored to those directly involved in estimating, classifying and reporting on reserves in unconventional reservoirs. The content will be relevant to:

• Reservoir Engineers• Reservoir Geologists• Senior Reservoir Engineers• Staff Reservoir Engineers

• Reservoir Engineering Managers• VP Reservoir Engineering• Head of Corporate Reserves

“This is a great topic of interest at this time and we are eager to participate”

JamesL.Bowzer Vice President, North America

Marathon Oil

“Your conference is very timely and definitely needed”

RickCastiglioni Senior Reservoir Engineering Advisor

Forest Oil

“Impressive set of speakers you have lined up!”

MarkRoach President

PetroHarvester Oil and Gas

“The agenda is on target and should highlight the key areas of interests. There should be a lot of interest in this symposium”

MarkEck Haynesville General Manager

Samson Resources

“Good opportunity to meet and catch up with industry leaders and update about current services”

TarekTamimi CrescentPetroleumCompany

“Exactly what I was looking for”LorenzoSopexSanchez

Repsol

Benefits of attending

Who should attend?

Feedback on the programme

Hear what previous attendees have to say

Search groups for: Unconventional Resource Reserve Estimation to join the online community

Tel: +1 212 537 5898



08.30 Registrationandcoffee

09.00 Welcome–RachelClarkson,EventDirector

09.05 Chairman’sopeningremarks Ian McDonald, Internal Qualified Reserves Evaluator,

Nexen Inc.

Estimating Reserves in Unconventional Reservoirs

09.10 Estimating reserves in unconventional gas reservoirs • Consider the fact that volumetric reserves estimation

techniques lack needed formation properties • Examine why traditional decline trend methods,

like Arps model, are usually inappropriate • Look at semi-analytical forecasting models, such as

a “long-duration linear flow” model Dr. John Lee, Regents Professor of Petroleum Engineering,

Texas A&M University

09.50 Teachinganolddognewtricks:TheArpsequationinunconventional resources

• Arps empirical basis and its parameters ties to real world production data

• Reservoir flow models and what they imply for the Arps equation

• Modifying Arps for use in transient flow systems DavidFulford, Senior Reservoir Engineer, Devon Energy

10.30 SpotlightSession:EnergyNavigator

10.40 Coffeeandinformationsharing

11.40 Rawdatatoreserves:Arobustworkflowforevaluatingunconventional reservoirs

• See a real demonstration of best practices for unconventional well performance analysis and modeling

• Leverage the value of advanced, rigorous modeling techniques

• Learn how to efficiently integrate reservoir engineering into your reserves evaluation and management process

Dave Anderson, Vice President Software, FeketeAssociatesInc.

12.20 Integrationofvolumetricandperformancebasedassessmenttechniquesforunconventional(continuous)resources

Assessments of opportunities in early play stages are largely volumetrically based, while in later stages performance based techniques are typically used. Many critical business decisions are made when minimal performance data is available. This session will examine the ability to integrate volumetric and performance based information in a combined assessment.

KurtSteffen, Senior Exploration Geologist, ExxonMobil

13.00 Lunch

TechniquesforAchievingBestPossible Accurate Reserves Estimates

14.00 Reservoirsimulationtechniquesandmodelsforunconventionalresourcesreservesandperformanceestimation

• Numerical modeling gridding techniques • Discrete fracture network modeling integration David Pena, Senior Reservoir Engineer, HessCorporation

14.40 Applicationofmodernpressure&rateanalysistoreserveestimationforunconventionalresources

• Recent developments in performance based reservoir analysis for unconventional resources, including normalized decline methods

• Modifications for stress-dependant permeability, multiphase-flow (de-watering in CBM resources)

• Practical limitations in resource analysis due to non- unique models and reservoir characterization. Impact of data filtering, processing, smoothing

Colin Lyle Jordan, Consulting Research Engineer, JSW Innovations

15.20 EmergingshalegasplaysoftheAppalachianBasin • A brief history and geography of the Marcellus Shale

gas play • The geological factors affecting production from the

Marcellus Shale : what we know about production • On the horizon: Utica Shale Dr.MichaelHohn,Director and State Geologist,

Virginia Geological and Economic Survey

Probablisticvs.DeterministicMethods

16.00 Coffee

16.20 Testing considerations in unconventional reservoirs • Examine why traditional test methods fail in

unconventional reservoirs • Discuss operational considerations for adapting

minifrac tests • Demonstrate how easily minifrac tests can be analyzed

to provide valuable reservoir information Marty Santo, Senior Technical Advisor and Louis Mattar,

President, FeketeAssociatesInc.

17.00 Roundtablediscussion:Usingprobabilisticanddeterministic methods

• Consider the benefits of using both probabilistic and deterministic methods

• Evaluate when it is best to use these methods and which is most appropriate in different circumstances

Facilitated by MazherIbraham, Specialist Reservoir Engineer, EOG Resources

17.40 Chairman’sClosingRemarks

17.50 EndofDayOne

19.00 NetworkingDinner

Day 1 23rd August 2011

Tel: +1 212 537 5898



09.00 Welcome-RachelClarkson,EventDirector,HansonWade

09.05 Chairman’sopeningremarks

Ian McDonald, Internal Qualified Reserves Evaluator, Nexen Inc.

Classification,ReportingandRegulatoryCompliance09.10 Determiningprovedareasinaresourceplay • To make an accurate assessment you must understand

the geology first • Establishing the proved area to book PUDs under SEC

guidelines requires more than one location • Repeating the law of transitive properties on multiple

datasets can create a nearly unique solution to the proved area question; albeit some subjective decisions need to be made during the analysis

PaulLupardus, Director Corporate Reserves, Chesapeake

09.50 Thechallengesofdisclosingbothprovedandprobablereservesforshalegasdevelopments

• Talisman Energy, unlike its US peers, discloses both 1p and 2p reserves

• Review the several different methods used to estimate PDP reserves

• Examine how the total number of wells drilled also affects the extent of the PUD areas assigned

MikeAdams, Internal Qualified Reserves Evaluator, Talisman Energy

10.30 Coffeeandnetworking

11.00 Roundtablediscussion:UnderstandhowtoclassifyPUDsusingtheSECregulationsandwhatvolumesyoucanassigntothosePUDs–quantifyingtheprovedarea

• Deploy capital strategically to successfully convert older PUD reserves into production and PDP reserves

• Can several PUD locations be converted into a horizontal PUD location to be drilled later?

• When should these reserves expire, and what if different locations have different booking years?

Facilitated by Dr. John Lee, Regents Professor of Petroleum Engineering, Texas A&M University

12.00 Lunch

EconomicConsiderations, RiskAssessmentandProjectDefinition

13.00 Establishingandmaintainingadequateinternalcontroloverreservesestimates,andattestingtocorporategovernancesurroundingprocessesthatvalidateandteststhe estimates used

• Review the benefits and best practices for following a comprehensive system to remove biases

• Examine the importance of reserves auditing, the role of the reserves auditor, and the keys to working successfully with reserves auditors

• Look at ways of gaining investor confidence by employing appropriate processes and an audit trail

Ian McDonald, Internal Qualified Reserves Evaluator, Nexen Inc.

13.40 Definingtheproject:Riskassessmentandresourceallocation

• Define the project to deliver business objectives

• Assess project risks and define the development plan

• Maximize return on investments through optimized allocation of resources

• Manage the long term objectives by introducing techniques to maintain the project delivery in line with business objectives

Samantha Meador, Business Opportunity Manager, New Ventures/New Business, Shell

14.20 Coffeebreak

CoalBed Methane and Oil Sands15.00 Integratingdisciplinestogeneratereservesestimates

• Going back to basics and using simpler techniques to estimate reserves

• Employing non-seismic techniques and understanding the benefits of this

MichelleBrown, Chief of Staff, BlackElkEnergy

15.40 Estimatinggascontentincoalbedmethanereservoirswithoutcoring:Acasestudy

• Highlight technical aspects of methodology developed by Yates Petroleum Corporation in early 2000’s

• Compare projected gas contents before development with those backed out from actual cumulative production in now nearly depleted areas where EURs can be reliably predicted by decline curve analysis

• Present approach to valuation of a coalbed methane prospect

FrankCarlson, Reservoir Engineer, Yates Petroleum

16.00 Chairman’sclosingremarks

16.10 EndofReservesEstimationforUnconventionalResources

Team DiscountsCompanies booking in delegations benefit from more effective networking coverage, increased event presence and discounted rates. To book a delegation package, please call +1 212 537 5898 or email [email protected]

Single Booking Attendance

38.8%

22.2%

33.3% 2 Booking Attendance

3+ Booking Attendance

Day 2 24th August 2011

Tel: +1 212 537 5898



Description:This one-day course will provide you with the skills and understanding needed to forecast production and estimate reserves in unconventional (ultra-low permeability) gas reservoirs.

Who Should AttendThe course is for engineers and geoscientists and others who are interested in evaluating unconventional reservoirs or in understanding evaluations submitted by outside parties.

Why You Should AttendIn this course you’ll learn the strengths and weaknesses of both common and emerging approaches to forecasting production and estimating reserves in unconventional gas reservoirs. This course will give you the competence to forecast production and estimate reserves for individual gas and oil wells and reservoirs using state-of-the art methods.

Dr. John Lee holds the L.F. Peterson Endowed Chair and is a Regents Professor of Petroleum Engineering in the Harold Vance Department of Petroleum Engineering at Texas A&M University.

John received B.ChE, M.S., and PhD degrees in Chemical Engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology. He spent 15 years with ExxonMobil, leading teams on reservoir studies, and joined the Texas A&M faculty in 1977. While at A&M, he also worked with S.A. Holditch & Associates, petroleum engineering consultants, from 1980 to 1999, specializing in reservoir engineering aspects of low permeability gas reservoirs. He served as an Academic Engineering Fellow with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission from October 2007 to December 2008. As an SEC Fellow, he coordinated the technical aspects of the SEC’s modernization of oil and gas reporting regulations.

He has received numerous awards from the Society of Petroleum Engineers, including the Anthony Lucas Medal, the DeGolyer Medal, and Honorary Membership. He is a member of the U.S. National Academy of Engineering and the Russian Academy of Natural Science.

WorkshopleaderDr. John Lee Regents Professor of Petroleum Engineering Texas A&M University

When you work with Hanson Wade you work with a partner focussed on your success. Your investment in both time and money needs to generate a return.

Our clients want that too and that’s why they work with us. They want to reach a targeted audience and eliminate wastage from their marketing activities. They work with us because we deliver results. We’re proud of this fact.

Our research identifies ground breaking issues and allows you to influence industry thinking at an early stage. Our expertise is recognised and respected by the industry. And our events are focussed, leading edge and attended by people looking for knowledge before making decisions.

If your organization could benefit from raising profile, promoting products and services or developing new partnerships and provides solutions for those working in unconventional reservoirs, contact:

tel: +44 (0)20 3141 8700 email: [email protected] Harley

Forecasting Production and Estimating Reserves in Unconventional Gas Reservoirs

22nd August 20119:00 – 16:00

Sponsorship opportunities Working with Hanson Wade

Tel: +1 212 537 5898



MichelleBrown Chief of Staff BlackElkEnergy

KurtSteffen Senior Exploration Geologist ExxonMobil

David Pena Senior Reservoir Engineer HessCorporation

Michael Adams Internal Qualified Reserves Evaluator Talisman Energy

PaulLupardus Director Corporate Reserves ChesapeakeEnergy

Louis Matter President FeketeAssociatesInc.

Colin Lyle Jordan Consulting Research Engineer JSW Innovations


DavidFulford Senior Reservoir Engineer, Planning and Reserves Devon Energy

Dave Anderson Vice President Software FeketeAssociatesInc.

Ian McDonald Internal Qualified Reserves Evaluator Nexen Inc.

Dr. Michael Hohn Director and State Geologist West Virginia Geological and Economic Survey

MazherIbrahim Specialist Reservoir Engineer EOG Resources

Marty Santo Senior Technical Advisor FeketeAssociatesInc.

Samantha Meador Business Opportunity Manager, New Business/New Ventures Shell

FrankCarlson Reservoir Engineer Yates Petroleum

Michelle Brown is Chief of Staff at Black Elk Energy. Ms. Brown is a Chemical Engineer with over twelve years of industry experience in field development, operations, and management onshore and offshore.

Kurt holds a BA in Geology, a Master of Science degree and a Doctorate degree in Earth and Planetary Sciences. Kurt has been with ExxonMobil for six years.

David has 8 years of petroleum engineering experience, with 6 years of specialized reservoir engineering training in fields in USA (Conventional & Unconventional), Norway, Australia, Kazakhstan, China, Libya and Venezuela.

Mike Adams has been the Internal Qualified Reserve Evaluator at Talisman Energy in Calgary since 2004. He is responsible for the preparation, validation, audit and submission of the corporate reserves report.

Throughout his career Paul has focused upon onshore U.S. assets, tight gas, and resource based plays. Paul is a member of SPE and chairman of the Industry Advisory Committee for Marietta College.

Louis Mattar previously worked for the EUB where he wrote Gas Well Testing - Theory and Practice (1975). He taught reservoir engineering at the University of Calgary and has authored 50 publications.

Colin Jordan has fifteen years’ experience in reservoir engineering / petroleum research, particularly reservoir characterization for unconventional gas. He has worked on various unconventional projects throughout the world.

Dr. Lee has received numerous awards from the Society of Petroleum Engineers. As an SEC Fellow, he coordinated the technical aspects of the SEC’s modernization of oil and gas reporting regulations

David’s most recent role was as a reservoir engineer working with tight gas sands and unconventional resources. David received his BS in Petroleum Engineering from Texas Tech University in 2006.

Dave Anderson has worked at Fekete since 1996, and has experience in reservoir and production engineering, gas gathering system analysis and well test analysis. He is an expert in Production Data Analysis.

Ian McDonald is responsible for the estimation and disclosure of the company’s reserves. Ian participated with the implementation of new Canadian oil and gas disclosure rules, and in reorganizing Nexen’s reserves processes.

Dr. Michael Hohn holds a B.S. in geology from Binghamton University and Ph.D. from Indiana University. He has published a book on geostatistics and over fifty papers on energy resources.

Mazher has 20 years of experience of petroleum engineering in teaching and field experience. He worked as Senior Reservoir Engineer with BP for three years and with El Paso for one year.

Martin Santo has been with Fekete 30 years. Before assuming his current role, Martin was manager of Fekete’s well test analysis group. Martin coordinated the integration of practical applications into F.A.S.T. WellTest™.

Samantha (“Sam”) Meador is Business Opportunity Manager (BOM) with Shell in the New Ventures/Business Development organization. Her primary responsibility is for opportunity identification and execution for unconventional resources focused in North America.

Frank has a BS and MS in Petroleum Engineering from University of Wyoming; MBA and JD from University of Tulsa. He worked for 13 years with Amoco Production Research in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Speakers

Tel: +1 212 537 5898



Fekete is a leading provider of reservoir and production engineering software tools. Using the extensive expertise developed in our engineering services group, Fekete has developed a reputation for providing innovative and practical software solutions.

Established in 1973, Fekete has always focused on tackling the upstream industry’s greatest technical challenges. Unconventional reservoirs are one of the industry’s current challenges, and Fekete has evaluated hundreds of unconventional oil and gas wells over the past few years. This has lead to substantial research and development of the best practices and software tools for unconventional well performance evaluation.

ExpectedBreakdownofAttendees

Reservoir Engineer

Senior Reservoir Engineer

Head of Corporate Reserves

Reservoir Engineering Managers

Reservoir Geologists

20%

30%20%

20%

10%

Media partners

Lead Sponsor

Spotlight sponsor

Attendee breakdown

Reserve Estimation for Unconventional Resources Houston 22nd-24th August 2011 Priority Code: MKT

Tel: +1 212 537 5898


Online: www.reserve-estimation.com Tel: +1 212 537 5898 Email: [email protected]

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