Goa

HPEC (Ahluwalia) Report 2011

Highlights and Recommendations

ICRIER’s Knowledge Dissemination

Workshop

In partnership with

Assam Administrative Staff College

Guwahati

April 30, 2013

Urban Share of Total Population in 2011

India and Some Selected Countries

48

India Indonesia China Mexico Korea Brazil

31

78 83

87

1

Source: United Nations and Government of India

(per cent)

Urban Share of Total Population in 2011

India and Some Selected States

2

India

31.1

(per cent)

14.1

20.1 22.7 25.0 26.2 29.0 30.2

51.5

Assam Meghalaya Arunachal Pradesh

Sikkim Tripura Manipur Mizoram Nagaland

India is urbanising...

India’s urban population to increase

• From 377 million today to 600 million by 2031

• From 160 million population in metropolitan cities in 2011 to 255 million by 2031

• From 217 million population in other cities and towns in 2011 to 343 million by 2031

Number of cities/towns/urban agglomerations

• There are 7935 cities and towns in 2011, up from 5161 in 2001

• There are 6166 Urban Agglomerations in 2011, up from 4378 in 2001

• From 53 metropolitan cities in 2011 to 87 by 2031

Metropolitan cities are cities with population over 1 million or 10 lakh (Class IA and Class IB cities); Other cities are

cities with population between 1 lakh and 10 lakh

Urban agglomeration is a continuous urban spread of a town and its adjoining outgrowths, or two or more physically

contiguous towns with or without outgrowths of such towns. An urban agglomeration must have at least one statutory

town and its total population should not be less than 20,000 (as per Census 2001).

Census towns have at least 75% of male working population engaged in non-agricultural activities

3

A snapshot of India's GDP growth

4

9.5

5.8

3.8

8.5

7.5 5.4

5.6

7.7

3.2

3.9 3.8

9.7

9.3

6.7

8.4

12

10

8

6

4

2

0 pe

r c

en

t p

er

an

nu

m G

DP

gro

wth

1951-6

1

1961-7

1

1971-8

1

1981-9

1

1991-0

1

2001-1

1

2001-0

2

2002-0

3

2003-0

4

2004-0

5

2005-0

6

2006-0

7

2007-0

8

2008-0

9

2009-1

0

2010-1

1

2011

-12

8.4

6.5

2012

-13

5.0

India is among the fastest growing economies in the world today

5

Comparing growth of GDP: India and the 8 states

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

pe

r ce

nt

India Arunachal Pradesh Mizoram Assam

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

per

ce

nt

India Meghalaya Manipur Nagaland

6

Comparing growth of GDP: India and the 8 states (contd.)

9.8 6.0 7.6

16.4

73.6

8.1

8.2 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

per

ce

nt

Sikkim

Tripura

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

per

ce

nt

Per capita income and urbanisation levels: States 2011

7

Urb

anisation 2011

log (per capita income (Rs Crore) 2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000

Kerala

Mizoram

Tamil Nadu

Maharashtra

Gujarat

Haryana

Sikkim Uttarakhand

Punjab Karnataka

Andhra Pradesh West Bengal

Manipur

Madhya Pradesh Jharkhand

Uttar Pradesh

Assam Bihar

Odisha

Meghalaya

Arunachal Pradesh

Tripura Nagaland

Chhattisgarh Rajasthan

Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, Nagaland, Sikkim are less urbanised and

Manipur and Mizoram are more urbanised than would be warranted by their per capita

income, respectively

Urban Share of GDP is rising...

37.7

47 52

42

Source: CSO, Eleventh Five Year Plan and the Mid-Term Appraisal Document of the Eleventh Five Year Plan

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

1970-71 1980-81 1993-94 1999-2000 2009-10 2030-31

63

75

per

cen

t

Rapid Growth has meant that as Indian economy goes through a major structural

transformation, urban share of GDP is rising rapidly

8

Role of rural-urban migration

• Pressure of rural-urban migration will increase with

• increasing role of industry and services sector in growth

• with more labour absorbing growth resulting from increasing integration with the

world economy

• Many cities will experience peripheral expansion, with smaller municipalities and large

villages surrounding the core city becoming part of the metropolitan area.

per

cent

Contribution to Increase in Urban Population

Net Rural-Urban

Migration

Migration has played a

minor role in urbanisation

9

Alert:

Census 2011

figures??

Important Messages from HPEC (Ahluwalia) Report 2011:

The challenge of faster and more inclusive growth

• To sustain growth rates of GDP of 8 to 9 per cent per annum, or

• To sustain per capita income increases of about 6.5 to 7.5 per cent per annum

• Faster GDP growth has to come from industry and services, since agriculture at best

can grow at 4 to 4.5 per cent per annum

• To make growth of industry and services more labour intensive

modernise labour laws (to provide greater flexibility in hiring and firing labour)

provide social protection to those who do not find productive employment in the

organised sector.

• Fortunes of the rural sector are crucially linked to the manner in which growth in

the industrial and services sector unfolds

10

• Decline in China’s working age population (%) from 2010 onwards

• Decline in Brazil’s working age population (%) from 2020 onwards

• Increase in India’s working age population (%) will continue till 2040

and begin to decline mildly after that

But Demographic Dividend can be reaped only if

Youth is empowered with skills and higher education for innovation, and

Employment opportunities expand

From demographic opportunity to demographic dividend

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74 %

of

wo

rkin

g a

ge p

op

ula

tio

n

India

China

Brazil

11

Implications for urban development

• Improve existing cities and build new cities as engines of growth

• Investment climate is about ease of living as much as about ease of doing business

The ground reality

• Cities and towns of India are visibly deficient in the quality of services they provide

• Current state of service delivery is far short of what is needed to realise the economic

potential of urban areas

The way forward

• Creating urban infrastructure

• Reforming governance for service delivery

• Providing access to universal service standards for all including the poor

• Consciously building rural-urban synergy

• Recognising importance of urban transport

• Integrating transport and land use planning

• Focussing on metropolitan planning

12

Service Standards

• Water Supply : 100 per cent piped water, 24x7 flow, and 135 lpcd consumption per capita

• Sewerage : Underground sewerage with 100 per cent collection and treatment of

waste water

• Solid Waste : 100 per cent collection, transportation and treatment

• Urban Roads

: Area under roads 11 per cent area for cities

7 per cent for towns

: Road density (km per sq. km.) 12.25 km per sq. km. for cities

7 km per sq. km. for towns

• Storm Water

Drains : Network covering 100 per cent road length on both sides of the road

• Urban Transport : Rail-based and road-based Mass Rapid Transit System for cities with

population1 mn and above, city bus service for smaller cities and towns

• Street Lighting : Illuminance: 35 Lux for all cities and towns; 40 m spacing for major roads,

45 m for collector roads, and 50 m for access road spaces

• Traffic Support

Infrastructure : Details by city size in the Committee’s Report

13

Urban Infrastructure Investment requirement of Rs 39 lakh crore

(including for slum redevelopment and capacity building): 2012- 2031

• This estimate does not allow for inflation after 2009-10, and

does not include primary education, primary health, electricity distribution and land cost

• GDP is assumed to increase at 8 per cent per annum for the 20-year period

• O&M is estimated at additional Rs 20 lakh crore for old and new assets together

Rs

cro

re a

t 2

00

9-1

0 p

ric

es

4500000

3000000

1500000

0

T o t a

l E

x p e n d i t u

r e

U r b

a n

R o a d

s

U r b

a n

T r a

n s p o r t

R e n e

w a l a

n d R

e d e v e l o

p m

e n t

i n c l u

d i n

g S

l u m

s

W a t e

r S

u p p l y

S e w

e r a

g e

S t o

r m W

a t e

r D

r a i n

s

C a p a c i t y B

u i l d

i n g

Tra

ffic

S u p p o r t

I n f r

a s t r

u c t u

r e

S o l i d

W a s t e

M a n

a g e m

e n t

S t r e

e t L i g

h t i n

g

O t h

e r S

e c t o

r s

3 9 1 8 6 7 0

1 7 2 8 9 4 1

4 4 9 4 2 6

4 0 8 9 5 5

3 2 0 9 0 8

2 4 2 6 8 8

1 9 1 0 3 1

1 0 1 7 5 9

9 7 9 8 5

4 8 5 8 2

1 8 5 8 0

3 0 9 8 1 5

% Increase Five-Year Plan

15 XII

12 XIII

8 XIV

8 XV

14

Share of Major Sectors in Total Investment Requirement of

Urban Infrastructure

Urban roads (backlog very large) 50 per cent

Water, sewerage, solid waste management, storm

water drains, street lighting 24 per cent

Transport and traffic support infrastructure 16 per cent

Other sectors 9 per cent

Total Rs 34 lakh crore

Sectors Rs lakh crore

Urban roads 17.3

Urban transport 4.5

Water supply 3.2

Sewerage 2.4

Storm water drains 2.0

Traffic infrastructure 1.0

Solid waste

management

0.5

Street lighting 0.2

Other sectors 3.1

15

Slum Redevelopment Rs 4.1 lakh crore

(12% of infra investment)

Capacity Building Rs 1.0 lakh crore

(2.5 % of infra investment)

16

Projections for Financing (per cent of GDP)

2011-12

2031-32

Large sums, but financeable if

• Government of India scales up JNNURM funding from its current level of 0.1 per cent of

GDP to 0.25 per cent of GDP per year for 20 years

• State governments enter into Constitutionally mandated revenue-sharing arrangement

with ULBs

• State governments provide enabling environment for ULBs to reform

• ULBs aggressively push reforms to increase own revenues, i.e.,

Access to borrowing and PPP is made possible by working on a Revenue Model which

makes ULBs credit-worthy and market-worthy

17

Governance is Crucial

And so is Capacity

• The JNNURM has created dynamism in the Indian urban sector which has long suffered

neglect. But progress in implementing reforms under the JNNURM has

been slow. The Mission has generally exposed the lack of capacity to prepare and

implement projects in urban infrastructure within an integrated framework of a City

Development Plan.

• Financing is crucially dependent on the reform of institutions and the capacity

of those who run the institutions for service delivery and revenue generation.

• Municipal entities need to be empowered to raise ‘own’ sources of revenue, predictable

transfers from state governments, and other transfers from the GoI

and state governments, to help them discharge the larger responsibilities assigned to

them by the 74th Constitutional Amendment.

• The ULBs themselves need to carry out reforms to strengthen their finances, and

improve service delivery

• Building and developing a Municipal cadre is very important

18

Recommendations

(circulated)

A. Major recommendations on governance

Administrative

• One ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs at national level

• Urban Development, Urban Transport, and Housing in one department at state level

• Unified Mission (NIJNNURM)

• Unified command under an empowered and accountable Mayor

Regulatory framework

• Urban Utility Regulator

• Local Body Ombudsman

• Local Funds Audit Commission

Reforms for service delivery

• Corporatisation

• Inter municipal cooperation

• Legislative reforms at state level to facilitate PPPs

• Use of e-governance

Planning

• Town Planning related

• Metropolitan and Regional Planning related

18

1. Tax reforms

• Introduce a ‛Local Bodies Finance List’ in the Constitution

• Empower ULBs with ‛exclusive’ taxes

• Constitutionally ensure sharing by the state governments of a pre-specified

percentage of their revenues from all taxes on goods and services with ULBs

• Provide for formula-based transfers and grants-in-aid to ULBs from the divisible pool

• Abolish octroi and entry taxes in all states

• Reform property tax so as to levy tax on constructed building under an Area Based

System and levy of vacant land tax on the basis of ready-reckoner capital value

B. Major recommendations on financing

20

2. Unlocking land value

• Tapping land-based financing sources including conversion charges, betterment

charges, impact fees, and development charges

• Pricing of Floor Space Index (FSI) above a certain limit, within overall planning guidelines

• Preparing city-wide inventory of land assets

• Putting in place a transparent and accountable mechanism for monetisation of public land

with due attention to the needs of the poor and the marginalised

B. Major recommendations on financing (contd.)

21

3. Reforms to strengthen non-tax revenues

• Municipal Service Regulator should be assigned the responsibility of revising user

charges regularly. Even when different segments of the population are charged

differently, the cross-subsidisation should be such that the overall O&M cost is

recovered and a minimal surplus generated. Automatic indexation will ensure

smooth increase over time without the challenge of having to defend cumulative

adjustment every few years.

• User charges to be so structured as to meet O&M cost, debt servicing, and

depreciation towards the cost of the project. In addition, they must also generate

some surplus to enable building the equity base of ULBs, supported, where

appropriate, with viability gap funding (VGF)

• Levy water and sewerage charges separately rather than build into the property tax

• Introduce parking fee to enhance revenue streams and promote the use of public

transport

• Collect trade licensing fee on the basis of a self assessment return

B. Major recommendations on financing (contd.)

22

Other reforms

• State governments to set up state financial intermediaries to work with small ULBs

• Government of India to create a ‛Regulatory Guidelines Handbook for Municipal Borrowings’

• ULBs to prepare ‛Intended Use Plans’, requiring them to prepare a borrowing programme

based on their investment needs and repayment capacity

• Remove fixed cap of 8 per cent on annual interest on municipal bonds to make the

bonds attractive

• HUDCO to have a professional Board; to receive benefits available to infrastructure

financing companies; and be regulated by the Reserve Bank of India

B. Major recommendations on financing (contd.)

23

• Set up five Indian Institutes of Urban Management

• Create Reform and Performance Management Cells (RPMC) at Government of India, and

also at state government level

• Build/Reform Municipal cadres in all states

• Train 300 officers from the Indian Administrative Services (IAS) and other central services

annually as urban specialists

• Infuse funds and new talent into existing Schools of Urban Planning

• Promote think tank initiatives in urban policy through Centres of Excellence/Innovation

• Encourage lateral hiring of professionals

C. Major capacity building initiatives

19

Thank You