HS2 in the East Midlands

An Assessment of the Economic Development Opportunities

Presentation

• Where we are up to

• Context on HS2 benefits

• Summary findings on baseline

• Emerging Issues

• Next steps

Recap on study objectives

• Provide an evidence-based understanding of the potential for economic development from HS2 investment in Toton

• Consider the connections to surrounding sites and centres

• Understand the change that HS2 can bring about

• Identify the actions necessary to enable this economic growth

• Prioritise actions to bring these opportunities to reality

1. Economic Baseline & Policy 2. Spatial Baseline & Assets Review 3. Connectivity Baseline & Policy

5. Production of Draft Scenarios

4. Position Statement

Partner Workshop

Stage 1:Baseline & Scenarios

Work Programme

Stage 2: Preferred scenario & analysis of

costs, benefits and risks.

Stage 3: Identify the key prioritised

interventions to drive growth.

6. East Midlands HS2 Futures Workshop

7. Assessment of Costs, Benefits & Risks

9. Prioritised Interventions Report

Work Programme

Potential Economic Benefits of HS2 to East Midlands

• Productivity & Direct employment - journey time savings and new connections -doing business more efficiently, quicker with more people in more markets

• Growth in sectors that will benefit from proximity to HS2 –Business & Professional Services, Financial & Legal, Digital and Creative, Property, Accommodation

• Catalytic job growth at hub but also in connected Enterprise Zones, business parks, University innovation districts

• Freeing up capacity on freight lines and roads helps, distribution, manufacturing, energy

• Freeing up capacity on commuter lines enables options for improving access to employment centres in non HS2 areas

• Procurement and supply chain benefits - significant in this region - engineering and rail engineering etc

• Medium to long term skills uplift creating more flexible and valuable workforce

Maximising Economic Benefit

Four recurrent themes:

1. Capturing impact around the hub

2. Increasing connectivity to HS2 – integrated City Region Transport System

3. Aligning policy and investment with HS2 –especially tech, R&D and Innovation

4. Creating the conditions for wider growth

Evidence Base Summary Findings

What economic, spatial and connectivity assets can be built on through HS2?

Overview of the Study Area

• 3.15m population

• Nearly 1.45m in employment

• 109,000 businesses

• £65bn GVA

• 76,000 unemployed, plus 473,000 economically inactive

Relative Economic Performance and Trends

• GVA per head in mid-range of core city LEPs

• Growth slower than England average over past 20 years, but faster than other core city LEP areas since 2009

• Manufacturing remains important to local economy

• Private sector services driving recent growth

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10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

GVA per head, 2014

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

GVA Growth 2009-2014

Employment Location - Overview

• Employment is dispersed with a few areas of concentration:Around city centres - professional

services, creative and knowledge, education and public sector

Manufacturing, engineering – central and western parts of D2N2

R&D, Science and Technology –Nottingham + smaller concentrations, inc. MIRA Enterprise Zone

Logistics - around the airport and motorway corridors

• Other employment distributed

Employment in HS2 Sensitive Sectors• Sectors expected to benefit most from

HS2 include:Producer services – finance, insurance, IT,

other business services, legal and accountancy, business and management consultancy, media services, real estate

• Employment-concentrated in major centres and the central parts of the study area, along the motorway corridors

• Strong growth expected in many of these sectors to 2030

• Currently employs 368,000-with 12% growth projected to 2030 (20% in BPS)

Potential Growth Sectors – Life SciencesEmployment 7,000-10,000 (depending on

definition)

Growth forecasts Varies by sub-sector

Key locations Concentrations across study area reflect location of key businesses and research bases

Key concentrations in Nottingham -Boots Enterprise Zone, Bio-City, Science Park

Potential benefits from HS2

Proximity to clusters at Birmingham / Leeds / Euston

Scale of benefits Medium

Sector Opportunities SummarySector Potential Benefits from HS2 Scale of Impact

Financial and Professional Services

Proximity to London and other FPS clustersGreater access to skilled labour

High – potentially large number of jobs and above average GVA

Creative and Digital Interaction with clusters in Leeds, Birmingham and London High / Medium

Science / R&D inc. Life Sciences

Proximity to other clusters – Birmingham, EustonAttract high quality labour

Small in scale, but strategically important / high GVA

Logistics and Distribution

Opportunities around airport and road investment, strong in the overall EM economy – not rail freight

Medium

Transport Equipment Manufacturing

Growth - supply chain opportunities and on-going maintenance Medium / High

Construction Supply chain opportunities Medium

Visitor Economy Accommodation specifically high, specific attractions-depending on location to be tested

May not generate high value employment / GVA

Advanced Manuf. Indirect growth through regeneration – freed capacity Low

Food and Drink Manufacturing

Limited Low

Businesses affected by route of HS2 line

Opportunity to re-locate to new facilities Small but important at local level

Spatial Assets & Current Development Proposals

Leicester & Leicestershire• Existing employment locations

• Leicester CC, M1 J21 business parks

• Development priorities• East Midlands Enterprise Gateway (Airport & Strategic Rail

Freight Interchange); Leicester Urban Area; Coalville Growth Corridor; Loughborough; SW Leics

• Enterprise Zone sites• Horiba/MIRA Technology Park: transport engineering

• Loughborough & Leicester: science & hi-tech manufacturing

• Housing Growth Areas• Extensions to existing Principal Urban Area; need for additional

housing capacity?

Derby & Derbyshire• Existing employment locations

• Derby CC, Chesterfield

• Development priorities• Infinity Park; Pride Park; Markham Vale (J29/M1;

Derwent Valley Corridor

• A52 Corridor and former Courtaulds Site

• Staveley Maintenance Depot

• Enterprise Zone sites• Infinity Park, Derby

• Markham Vale

• Housing Growth Areas• Derby & sustainable extensions into South

Derbyshire/Amber Valley

Nottingham & Nottinghamshire• Existing employment locations

• Nottingham CC, Hucknall, Bassetlaw business parks, A617 corridor

• Development priorities• City Centre extensions, including Waterside & EZ sites

• Key sites at Gedling & Hucknall; A617 & A57 sites

• Enterprise Zone sites• Boots Campus; Beeston Business Park; Nottingham

Science Park; MediPark

• Housing Growth Areas• Newark & Sherwood; Rolls Royce Hucknall; Boots

Campus; Gedling & Broxtowe sites

Broxtowe, Erewash & Station Area

• Existing employment locations• Beeston Business Park

• Development priorities• Toton HS2 station site; Stanton Regeneration site (inc. rail

park); Mark St, Sandiacre; Long Eaton industrial areas

• Enterprise Zone sites• Beeston Business Park

• Housing Growth Areas• Station area

Connectivity

HS2 Connectivity Layers• HS2 Station at Toton:

A multi-modal transport hub with high speed and classic rail links, adjacent to M1

• Linking Toton with Economic Centres / Assets – Derby, Nottingham, Leicester and East Midlands Airport:

High quality, fast, frequent connections via public transport and key road network

• Supporting Logistics / Advanced Manufacturing Sectors:

Reliable, efficient highway network along M1, A50, A38 and A46 corridors

• Providing Benefits for other Key Sectors and Locations:

Capitalise on opportunities that will become available on existing networks

HS2 Toton – Emerging Service Patterns

Outstanding connectivity for Toton

HS2 Connectivity – requires a strategic approach• National Rail:

HS2 itself, Midland Mainline, East Coast Main Line

• National Road:

M1 (particularly Junction 25) , A38, A46, A50, A52

• Regional Transport:

Derby-Nottingham-Leicester Rail, EMA Connections, Derby/Nottingham Ring Roads

• City Regional Transport:

NET Extensions and Park and Ride, Bus Rapid Transit, Heavy Rail Links

(eg Mansfield, Newark)

Emerging Issues

Economic Benefits of HS2…beyond the Hub

• HS2 not the only driver – necessary but not sufficient for growth

• Not just development of the Hub station site

• Strengthen connectivity between East Midland’s core economic assets Toton with Derby / Nottingham / EMA / Leicester

• Enhanced connectivity (across the region, and for all parts of the region to London and other major conurbations – not only via HS2 but through freed up capacity on existing infrastructure)

• Not currently set up to deliver strategic infrastructure

• Strategic Delivery Vehicle, and a strategic masterplan/development framework beyond the hub..

East Midlands Core Area Masterplan/Development Framework • HS2 can facilitate greater integration between EM’s key economic drivers –

the three cities, EMA

• Potential to facilitate the development of major sites –EMA and East Midlands Gateway; Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station; Trent Valley Corridor inc. Infinity Park; Stanton;Staveley; etcA 52 Corridor

• Masterplan / development framework for the wider area would provide a strategic approach to maximising benefits, and ensure local areas were able to secure benefits from HS2

Station Hub Site

• Doesn’t have the scale of a Solihull or Basford but…

• Still ambitions and distinctive at a super connected locationKnowledge Business District

High end office park for HQs / Civil Service re-locating from London?

International University inward investment & business co-location

Innovation Campus – incubator facilities and start-up space

Housing – retain highly skilled mobile workforce- attractive connectivivty

Visitor attraction? Further testing ?

Next Steps

• Complete baseline and produce the Positioning Report by end July

• Next task is to start looking in detail at the growth scenarios

• In parallel – look in more detail at Innovation/Higher Education/Tourism opportunity

• Futures Workshop 17th August