hs3 review and planning meeting scott braun. goals of meeting review 2012 campaign – initial...
TRANSCRIPT
HS3 Review and Planning Meeting
Scott Braun
Goals of Meeting• Review 2012 campaign
– Initial science results– Lessons learned
• Prepare for 2013 campaign– Status of all instruments– Changes to aircraft operations for 2013– Revised strategies based upon lessons learned and
changes from 2012 operations– Changes to MTS– Deployment details
GH Status and Changes
• Status (progress with pods, new instruments)• 2013 and 2014 schedule• Operational constraints (flight duration issues,
turn-around time, hazard avoidance, other issues)
• Fatigue management• Changes to the COA (if any)
Discussion on Wednesday
• Forecasting procedures• Flight modules & planning• Mission scientist’s roles and responsibilities• PayMOF operations
Flight Modules
AV-6 Module
Example AV-1 Modules
Review of Science GoalsEnvironment:• What impact does the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) have on intensity change?• How do storms interact with shear produced by large-scale wind systems? In
particular, how do horizontal and vertical variations in shear impact intensity change?
• How does the outflow layer interact with the environment?
Inner-core:• What is the role of deep convective towers (bursts) in intensity change?
– Are they critical to intensification? – How does the low-level wind field respond to convective bursts? – How does the upper-level warm core depend on convective bursts?
• How do intrusions of dry air impact intensity change?• What changes in storm structure occur prior to and during genesis and rapid
intensification?
• Two aircraft:
AV-6 = environmental GH
AV-1 = over-storm GH
• Deployments of GHs from the East Coast— Wallops Flight Facility in VA
• 5 week deployment in 2013 (Aug 20-Sept 23)
• Currently 4 weeks in 2014
• 275 flight hours per deployment (10-11 flights)
Dots indicate genesis locations. Range rings assume 26-h flights.
HS3 Mission Overview
16 h loiter
6 h loiter
Environmental Payload
NOAA
U. Wisc.NASA/GSFC
Temperature
Relative Humidity
Aerosol Backscatter
Over-Storm Payload
NASA/MSFC NASA/GSFCJPL
HIRAD excess TB
HIWRAP dBZ and vector winds
HAMSR T´
• Unable to add YES dropsonde system for HS3.
• Possible piggybacks
– GPS surface wind sensors
• On AV-6 in 2013
– Gamma ray detector
• On AV-1
New Instruments for 2013
z
Py
h
xReflection
Area
GPS
Sγ
GPS surface winds
HS3 in 2012
• Challenges– Only 1 storm while at WFF– Dropsondes almost disallowed
by FAA– Numerous tech. & logistical
challenges– No AV-1
• Successes– 1 very persistent storm– Good interactions with
FAA/VACAPES– Smooth WFF operations/chase
coordination– Great work by forecasters,
mission scientists, flight planners, ESPO, & crew
2012
Nadine’s track
21 26 3228 30
AV-1 Prep for 2013-2014• AV-1 did not make the 2012 deployment due to aircraft issues
• Test flight in Pacific on Nov. 5-6
• In addition to HAMSR and HIWRAP, flying HIRAD for the first time
OSCAT image from 00 UTC 6 November
HS3 Observations of Leslie’s Outflow7 Sep 20121041-1111Z
Black, Red, Blue and Pink lines:Global Hawk observedwind speed and temperature profilesalong jet maximum from dropsondes
Green line: COAMPS-TC modelwind speed profile
Red line: Satellite wind speed vertical average
Solid black: TropopauseDashed: Cirrus top / jet maxDotted: Cirrus cloud baseYellow shading: Cloud Physics
Lidar (CPL) domain
Cloud top
Cloud base
Tropopause
Courtesy of P. Black
Impact of HS3 Dropsondes for NadineTrack Error (nm) Intensity: Max. Wind Error (kts)
Intensity: Min. SLP Error (hPa)
Bias (dash)
HS3 drops
No dropsHS3 drops
No drops
HS3 drops
No drops
Bias (dash)
• Dropsonde impact experiments performed for 19-28 Sep. (3 flights)
- Blue, with HS3 drops- Red, No drops with synthetics
• COAMPS-TC Intensity and Track skill are improved greatly through assimilation of HS3 Drops. Courtesy of J. Doyle
Best track, NODA, and EnKF-Initialized Forecasts
(a) Track (b) Intensity
HIWRAP radial velocity assimilation from Hurricane Karl• Use same WRF-EnKF system as used at PSU
(F. Zhang et al.)• Use up to 450 superobs/h (150/h from
analysis time and +/- 1 h) • Reject any ob. with Vr < 15 m/s or dBZ < 25• Assimilate P/I at 18Z/16th, then P/I + Vr 19Z
through 07Z/17th
• Best results from tight flight pattern