http:// ensemble wind forecasting based on the harmonie model and adaptive finite elements in...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
http://www.dca.iusiani.ulpgc.es/proyecto2012-2014
Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and
Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex OrographyAlbert Oliver (1), Eduardo Rodríguez (1), José María Escobar (1), Gustavo Montero (1), Mariano Hortal (2), Javier Calvo (2),
José Manuel Cascón (3), and Rafael Montenegro (1)
(1) University Institute SIANI, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria
(2) Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET)
(3) University of Salamanca
![Page 2: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Motivation
The Local Scale Wind Field Model
Coupling with HARMONIE
Calibration
Ensemble method
Conclusions
ContentsEnsemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model andAdaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography
![Page 3: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Motivation
• Wind field forecasting for complex terrain• Ensemble methods• Gran Canaria island (Canary Islands)
![Page 4: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Motivation
• Wind farm energy• Air quality
![Page 5: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
The Local Scale Wind Field Model
![Page 6: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Problem description
Mass Consistent Wind Model
Experimental data from 4 stations (10 m over terrain)
![Page 7: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
terrain surface
Construction of the observed wind
Mass Consistent Wind Model
Vertical extrapolation (log-linear wind profile)
geostrophic wind
mixing layer
![Page 8: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Construction of the observed wind
Mass Consistent Wind Model
● Friction velocity:
● Height of the planetary boundary layer:
the Earth rotation andis the Coriolis parameter, being
is a parameter depending on the atmospheric stability
is the latitude
● Mixing height:
in neutral and unstable conditions
in stable conditions
● Height of the surface layer:
![Page 9: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Construction of the observed wind
Mass Consistent Wind Model
Horizontal interpolation
![Page 10: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Mathematical aspects
Mass Consistent Wind Model
• Mass-consistent model
• Lagrange multiplier
![Page 11: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Construction of the observed wind
Mass Consistent Wind Model
20 m
Interpolated Resulting
![Page 12: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Coupling with HARMONIE
![Page 13: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
HARMONIE model
HARMONIE-FEM Wind Forecast
Non-hydrostatic meteorological model From large scale to 1km or less scale (under developed) Different models in different scales Assimilation data system Run by AEMET daily
24 hours simulation data
HARMONIE on Canary islands (http://www.aemet.es/ca/idi/prediccion/prediccion_numerica)
![Page 14: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
HARMONIE-FEM wind forecastTerrain approximation
Topography from Digital Terrain ModelHARMONIE discretization of terrain
Max height 1950m
Max height 925m
Terrain elevation (m)
![Page 15: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
HARMONIE-FEM wind forecastSpatial discretization
FEM computational mesh
HARMONIE mesh
Δh ~ 2.5km
Terrain elevation (m)
![Page 16: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
HARMONIE-FEM wind forecastTerrain approximation
![Page 17: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
HARMONIE-FEM wind forecastHARMONIE data
U10 V10 horizontal velocitiesGeostrophic wind = (27.3, -3.9)
Used data (Δh < 100m)
![Page 18: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
HARMONIE-FEM wind forecastWind magnitude at 10m over terrain
FEM wind
HARMONIE wind
Wind velocity (m/s)
![Page 19: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
HARMONIE wind
HARMONIE-FEM wind forecastWind field at 10m over terrain
Wind velocity (m/s)
FEM wind
![Page 20: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
HARMONIE-FEM wind forecast
Zoom
Wind field over terrain (detail of streamlines)
![Page 21: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Calibration
![Page 22: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
FE solutionis needed
for each individual
Genetic Algorithm
Estimation of Model Parameters
k2 2
0 0i ii 1
1F( , , , ')
2ku u v v
![Page 23: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
HARMONIE-FEM wind forecastStations election
Control points
Stations
Stations and control points
![Page 24: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
HARMONIE-FEM wind forecastGenetic algorithm results
l Optimal parameter values
l Alpha = 2.302731l Epsilon = 0.938761l Gamma = 0.279533l Gamma‘ = 0.432957
![Page 25: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
HARMONIE-FEM wind forecastForecast wind validation (location of measurement stations)
![Page 26: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
HARMONIE-FEM wind forecastForecast wind along a day
![Page 27: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
HARMONIE-FEM wind forecastForecast wind along a day
![Page 28: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
HARMONIE-FEM wind forecastForecast wind along a day
![Page 29: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Ensemble method
![Page 30: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Ensemble methodsStations election
Stations (1/3) and control points (1/3)
Control points
Stations
![Page 31: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Ensemble methods
NewAlpha = 2.057920Epsilon = 0.950898Gamma = 0.224911Gamma' = 0.311286
PreviousAlpha = 2.302731Epsilon = 0.938761Gamma = 0.279533Gamma' = 0.432957
Small changes
![Page 32: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Ensemble mthodsEnsemble forecast wind along a day
![Page 33: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Ensemble mthodsEnsemble forecast wind along a day
![Page 34: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Ensemble mthodsEnsemble forecast wind along a day
![Page 35: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Ensemble mthodsEnsemble forecast wind along a day
![Page 36: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Conclusions
![Page 37: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Conclusions
• Local Scale wind field model is suitable for complex orographies http://www.dca.iusiani.ulpgc.es/Wind3D
• Local wind field in conjunction with HARMONIE is valid to forecast wind velocitiesA. Oliver, E. Rodríguez, J. M. Escobar, G. Montero, M. Hortal, J. Calvo, J. M. Cascón, and R. Montenegro. “Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements.” Pure Appl. Geophys. (Online). doi:10.1007/s00024-014-0913-9.
• The proposed method is a work in progress that looks promising
• Ensemble methods provide a promising framework to deal with uncertainties
![Page 38: Http:// Ensemble Wind Forecasting Based on the HARMONIE Model and Adaptive Finite Elements in Complex Orography](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f295503460f94c42f98/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Thank you for your attention