human capital development before age fivecle/secnf/almondcurrieslides.pdfmany post-natal effects...
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Human Capital Development Before Age Five
Douglas Almond and Janet Currie
Columbia University
November 8, 2009
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Presentation outline
1 Introduction
2 Model
3 Methods
4 Empirical Literature on Prenatal Period
5 Empirical Literature on Ages 0 to 5
6 Policy Responses
7 Conclusions and Future Work
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Motivation
Active literature in economics over last fiveyears
Early childhood measures predict a non-trivialportion of adult outcomes
E.G., 1958 British Cohort Study: 20% of variation in wages atage 33 can be explained by child observables during earlychildhood (Currie & Thomas 1999)
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Conventional view of individual human capital over time
Grossman model considers health/human capitalas a stock variable that varies with anindividual’s age
Responds to investments and depreciation
Stocks at earlier ages matter to adult stocks...
... but their e!ect (and health investments they embody)dwindles over time
No special role for early childhood ages
We want to leave open whether there is indeed“fade out” of investments/experiences at earlyages
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Conventional view of individual human capital over time
Grossman model considers health/human capitalas a stock variable that varies with anindividual’s age
Responds to investments and depreciation
Stocks at earlier ages matter to adult stocks...... but their e!ect (and health investments they embody)dwindles over time
No special role for early childhood ages
We want to leave open whether there is indeed“fade out” of investments/experiences at earlyages
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Conventional view of individual human capital over time
Grossman model considers health/human capitalas a stock variable that varies with anindividual’s age
Responds to investments and depreciation
Stocks at earlier ages matter to adult stocks...... but their e!ect (and health investments they embody)dwindles over time
No special role for early childhood ages
We want to leave open whether there is indeed“fade out” of investments/experiences at earlyages
![Page 7: Human Capital Development Before Age Fivecle/secnf/almondcurrieslides.pdfmany post-natal effects that have been documented (especially since it is not clear how many conditions/events](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051908/5ffb4b9f27720e64d718bd00/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Conventional view of individual human capital over time
Grossman model considers health/human capitalas a stock variable that varies with anindividual’s age
Responds to investments and depreciation
Stocks at earlier ages matter to adult stocks...... but their e!ect (and health investments they embody)dwindles over time
No special role for early childhood ages
We want to leave open whether there is indeed“fade out” of investments/experiences at earlyages
![Page 8: Human Capital Development Before Age Fivecle/secnf/almondcurrieslides.pdfmany post-natal effects that have been documented (especially since it is not clear how many conditions/events](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051908/5ffb4b9f27720e64d718bd00/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Admitting early origins
Defining h as health or human capital at thecompletion of childhood
h = A[!I1 + (1! !)I2], (1)
I1 "= investments during childhood through age 5
I2 "= investments during childhood after age 5.
! can be greater than .5
Perfect substitutability in equation (1) notuncommon assumption in economics, butproblematic for early origins
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Complementarity
Heckman suggests more flexible “developmental”technology:
h = A!!I !
1 + (1! !)I !2
"1/!, (2)
Constant elasticity of substitution (CES)production function
Elasticity of substitution 1/(1! !)
Perfect substitutability of investments stillallowed (when " = 1)
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Shocks in early-childhood health
Holding other determinants of investments fixed,consider investment shock:
I1 + µg
Long-term damage from a negative µg is:
#h
#µg
Magnitude of damage can depend on levels of I1 and I2Relevant for empirical findings of heterogenous “early origins”damage“Biological” e!ect assumes no investment response
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Remediation
Consider a change to second period investmentsafter shock µg in early childhood:
E!ectiveness of remediation depends on ", !and I1Knowing "h
"µgto be big doesn’t say much about
e!ectiveness of remediation
Optimal investment response also depends onutility function, e.g.:
Up = (1! $)logCp + $logh
Where Cp is the consumption of parents
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Optimized investment response
"I #2 · µg < 0: Compensation helps o!set damage
"I #2 · µg > 0: Reinforcement accentuates damage
For " > 0, compensation optimal
For " < 0, reinforcement optimal
To the extent there is a response, then missing the“biological” e!ect.
Can understate total damage from µg byfocussing exclusively on reduced form "h
"µg
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Empirical work on investment responses
Early work arguably proxied for investments withlater-life outcomes (e.g., years of schoolingconsidered investment measure)
Recent work has begun to consider explicitinvestment measures at younger ages
No consensus on direction of response
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Data constraints
Solutions to lack of large-sample longitudinal data:1 Collect more data, but costly and
time-consuming (have to wait for cohorts tobecome adults)
2 Add retrospective questions to existing datacollections
3 Merge new information to existing datasetsE.G. Add ecological info to vital statistics data (e.g. pollutionmeasures)
4 Merge administrative data from several sourcesusing personal identifiers
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Data constraints: power
Looking for measures of both early childhoodand adult outcomes
Variable-rich datasets tend to have smallersample sizes
Less true in NorwayE!ect of 1% increase in birth weight increases HS completionby .1 percentage pointsUnder reasonable assumptions will need a sample size of atleast 4,000 to detect this
Need to be creative to find suitable data
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Biomedical Literature on Fetal Origins
DJ Barker says mom an inconsistent bu!er ofadversity during pregnancy
Insults experienced when development rapidhave bigger e!ects
Growth very rapid in utero
“Brain sparing” mechanisms often studied inepidemiology and biomedicine
Fetal “trunk” gets lower priority when there’s a shortageCauses chronic health conditions during adulthood (e.g.ischemic heart disease)E!ects may be latent during childlhood
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Birth weight and human capital
All observational studies in economics
Human capital assessed in later adolescence oradulthood
Sign of e!ect fairly well established
low birth weight $ low human capital
Relationship persists in sibling and twinscomparisons
Strength of relationship more wide-rangingDi!ering identification strategies across studiesParental responses may be di!erent in di!erent contexts
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Prenatal shocks and human capital
1 Prenatal infections% epidemiological literature finding e!ects of seasonal variationin infections during pregnancy on adult health
1957 ”Asian Flu” just happened to coincide with pregnancy for1958 British Birth Cohort
Kelly (2009) finds impacts on test scoresIndependent of birth weight e!ect of fluDoesn’t detect an investment response
2 Prenatal economic shocks
3 Prenatal air pollutionParticularly active economics literature
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Prenatal pollution shocks
Ambient pollutionLarge e!ects on multiple measures of health at birthFewer studies of long-term e!ectsData constraint
SmokingLarge birth weight e!ectsAnalysis of other outcomes, esp. long-term e!ects, relativelyuncommon
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Long-term e!ects of prenatal shocks often BIG
Example: 1918 Influenza Pandemic
High school graduation rate falls 13-15% for the children ofinfluenza-infected moms (roughly one-in-three moms infected)
Wages 5-9% lower for children of infected
Fig. 3.—1960 average years of schooling: men and women born in the United States
Fig. 4.—1970 high school graduation: by year of birth
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
From 0 to 5
What are the interesting questions?
It is not interesting to show that it is possiblefor an event that occurs between 0 and 5 tohave lifelong consequences(too easy to think of examples).
So overarching question must be how importantevents at this stage are relative to events earlieror later?
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Additional questions -
How much of adult disparity can be explained byevents from 0-5?
What are the connections between health andcognition (or are they mostly separateprocesses)?
What is the role of third factors (e.g. parenteducation and income?) in mitigating e!ects ofshocks?
How do parents respond to shocks?
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Identification Issues:
Not possible to define sharp cuto!s after whichinfluences will not matter.
Di#cult to distinguish prenatal and postnatalexposures.
Many possible early childhood events/influencesand many possible outcome measures whichmay be bundled – which are important? Whichcan be separately identified?
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Some findings:
Reductions in disease environment in earlychildhood associated with better health andhigher cognitive test scores in developedcountries (even given negatively selectedsurvivors).
The occurrence of negative health shocks isstrongly linked to SES internationally.Cumulative e!ects of negative health shockswiden gaps in health as children age. May alsobe linked to lower educational and labor marketattainment (an active research area).
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
More findings...
Mental health is really important relative tophysical health. Big e!ects and high prevalence.
Parent’s mental health (only moms reallystudied) also important.
Mom’s employment extensively andwrong-headedly studied. Production functionapproach suggests that it is the combination ofinputs that matters, so what is substituted formom’s time and quality of mom’s time isimportant.
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Returning to overarching question:
We know a lot more than 10 years ago.
Factors from -1 to 5 have significant long-terme!ects on many children.
Prenatal e!ects are generally large relative tomany post-natal e!ects that have beendocumented (especially since it is not clear howmany conditions/events that are noticedpost-natally have prenatal roots).
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
So can we do anything about it?
Second half of the paper reviews literature onremediation.
We discuss:CashNear cashEarly interventionHealth insurance
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
1st half depressing. 2nd half surprisingly hopeful
There are many interventions which appear tohave positive e!ects.
With appropriate intervention it may be possibleto undo or prevent many of the harmfulconsequences of negative prenatal and early lifeevents.
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Evidence re: Cash
Some recent studies suggest that relativelymodest transfers of cash to low-income U.S.households (around $10,000) would haveeducationally meaningful e!ects on test scoresand behavior problems.Some suggestion that girls benefit more in termsof health and behavior. Boys benefit more interms of test scores?Then why is so much aid in-kind? Politics.Paternalism. In-kind programs may be the onlyway to reach children in the most dysfunctionalhouseholds.
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Evidence re: Cash
Some evidence that cash transfers as small asaround $10,000 may be enough to produceeducationally meaningful di!erences in testscores (especially for boys), and in behavior andhealth (especially for girls).
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Cash vs. In-Kind
Then why is so much aid delivered in kind?
PoliticsPaternalism
In kind may be the only way to reach the children who aremost at risk.
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Near Cash: Housing and Food Stamps
MPC food out of food stamps slightly higherthan out of cash. Cash transfer associated withFSP (now SNAP) has had positive impacts onchild outcomes.
Housing programs also have had positive e!ects.Note, reducing crowding seems to benefit boys.Taking kids out of poor neighborhoods seems tobenefit girls.
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Early Intervention
Many programs are e!ectiveQuality preschool programs (e!ects bigger for girls?)WIC (e!ects unlikely to be driven by selection)Nurse home visiting (randomized controlled trials)
Other programs are ine!ectiveHome visiting with para professionals (randomized controlledtrials)Average child care programsEarly Head Start?
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
An Economic Approach...
... may be useful in understanding the di!erentresults
Can get positive results with di!erentcombinations of inputs
Need more research from this perspective.
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Public Health Insurance
Causes children to get more care when replacesno insurance. But more is not always better!(e.g. hospitalizations, C-sections).
Causes children to get less care when it crowdsout more generous private insurance policies.
Crowd out likely to increase over time (familiarity, increasingcost private HI)
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Health is a stock
Not a flow, so may be hard to see immediatee!ects in terms of better health, but someevidence that coverage from birth is associatedwith better health and higher test scores.
Note, HI typically does not address major threatsto health including injuries, toxic exposures,poor nutrition, poor parenting/abuse/neglect.
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Summary and Conclusions
This is an exploding area of research
Economists bring a lot to the table in terms ofboth empirical methods and a simple theoreticalframework for interpreting results.
Substantively, what happens from -1 to 5 is atleast as important for future outcomes as whathappens thereafter.
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Introduction Model Methods Prenatal Period Ages 0 to 5 Policy Responses Conclusions
Many questions for Future Work
Which shocks matter most and at which ages?
Why do e!ects di!er for boys and girls?
What are the interactions between shocks tohealth and shocks to cognition?
What is the least cost way to improveoutcomes?
How can Economists interact constructively withpeople from other disciplines (e.g. to usebiomarkers?, conduct RCTs?)