human fingerprints (1):...
TRANSCRIPT
HUMAN FINGERPRINTS (1): OBSERVATIONS
1. Introduction: the story so far….
2. Global warming: the last 150 years
3. Is it really warming?
4. Fingerprints: the stratosphere, the hockey sticks
Emission spectrum from Earth measured by NIMBUS-7 satellite, 1970.
Source: Hanel, 1971.
400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 0
50
100
150
220 K
240 K
260 K
280 K
300 K
320 K
Wave number (cm-1)
Rad
ian
ce
(mW
.m-2
.sr-1
cm)
H2O CO2 Atmospheric
window
O3 CH4 H2O
Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration recorded at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Source: NOAA; see also Archer, 2012, p. 93.
Changes in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide
Source: IPCC, 2001. See also Archer, 2012, p. 123.
Car
bo
n d
ioxi
de
con
cen
trat
ion
(p
pm
)
Years before present
Couldn’t this all be part of a natural cycle? Atmospheric CO2 recorded in the Vostok ice core, Antarctica, and measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.
Source: data from WDC Paleoclimatology and NOAA Mauna Loa CO2 records.
Greenhouse gases provide a RADIATIVE FORCING on the climate system.
Source: IPCC AR5
CO2: about 1.68 W.m-2
Cloud changes: about -0.55 W.m-2
Albedo changes: about -0.15 W.m-2
Total anthropogenic: about 2.29 W.m-2 1750-2011
The world is getting warmer.
Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Global temperature anomalies relative to 1951-1980 average.
Source: data from NASA GISS; combined land-ocean temperature index.
Global temperature trend 1880-2012
Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 36; see also Archer, 2012, pp. 135-138.
Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 37.
Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 53.
Trends in daily extreme warmth, 1951-2003. Extremely warm = upper 90th percentile. Scale is days per decade.
Is it really getting warmer?
How or why might this record be wrong?
Source: Menne et al., 2010, JGR- Atmospheres.
From point to grid: weather stations in the USHCN
From point to grid: global distribution of weather stations. Source: Houghton, 2009, p. 98.
Gridded data in Global Historical Climatology Network.
Source: National Climatic Data Center http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/ghcn-gridded-temp.html
Source: Watts, 2009, Is the US surface temperature record reliable?, Heartland Institute.
Aren’t the weather stations badly placed?
Satellite images of the urban heat island of Atlanta, Georgia (top-true colour; bottom- land surface temperature).
Source: McCarthy et al., 2010, Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2010GL042845
U.S. paved area approaches that of Ohio.
Source: Elvidge et al., 2004, Eos: Transactions AGU, vol. 85 no. 24.
Reconstructions of global average temperature, 1880-2013.
Source: Drawn from data retrieved from GIStemp, National Climatic Data Center, and Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature websites.
Time (year)
Tem
per
atu
re
rela
tive
to
19
51
-19
80
ave
rage
(C
elsi
us)
Source: Houghton, 2009, p. 72.
Sea-surface temperature measurements from ships
Source: IPCC Working Group I Fourth Assessment Report, 2007.
Sea-surface temperature measurements from ships
The Arctic is warming at twice the global rate.
Source: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004.
NASA’s Aqua satellite carries the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (A-MSU).
Source: NASA Earth Observatory, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov.
Science progresses: corrections to MSU data as we learn how to use it.
Corrections to University of Alabama-Huntsville (UAH) data from MSU. Source: SkepticalScience.com
Multiple data sets all show warming. Te
mp
erat
ure
fro
m s
atel
lites
(U
AH
an
d R
SS)
Tem
per
atu
re f
rom
su
rfac
e st
atio
ns
(NA
SA G
ISS
and
NC
DC
)
Source: data downloaded from websites of each research organization. Graph shows temperature change in Celsius for middle troposphere (satellite) and surface (surface stations), relative to different standards.
OK, you don’t like the temperature data.
What else could we look at?
Source: The Cryosphere Today/NSIDC
Source: The Cryosphere Today/NSIDC
Changing sea ice extent 1953-2012
Derived from satellite images and written records.
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center, State of the Cryosphere report, 2014.
Mallard Fillmore, cartoon, 9/24 and 9/25/2013.
As printed in the Ogden Standard-Examiner.
Changing sea ice extent 2002-2013
Source: Drawn using data from National Snow and Ice Data Center, State of the Cryosphere report, 2014.
Sea
ice
exte
nt
(mill
ion
sq
uar
e km
)
3.63
5.35
Changing sea ice extent 1953-2012
Derived from satellite images and written records.
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center, State of the Cryosphere report, 2014.
Changing sea ice extent 1978-2012
Derived from satellite images.
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center, State of the Cryosphere report, 2014.
New melt extent on Greenland, 2005. Source: Koni Steffen.
Source: Measurements from NASA’s GRACE satellites.
Changes in mass, Greenland and Antarctica. Change in mass, 2003-2010, cm water. Source: NASA
Holgate Glacier, Alaska, 1909.
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center glacier rephotography collection.
Holgate Glacier, Alaska, 2004.
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center glacier rephotography collection.
McCall Glacier, Alaska, 1958.
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center glacier rephotography collection.
McCall Glacier, Alaska, 2003.
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center glacier rephotography collection.
Global glacier retreat. Source: Oerlemans, 2001, Nature; see also Archer, 2012, p. 139.
Global glacier retreat. Source: World Glacier Monitoring Service, 2008, Global Glacier Changes: Facts and Figures.
Global glacier retreat. Source: World Glacier Monitoring Service, 2008, Global Glacier Changes: Facts and Figures.
Glaciers worldwide are losing mass. Change in mass, 2003-2010, cm water. Source: NASA
Source: Measurements from NASA’s GRACE satellites.
Ice loss on Kilimanjaro. Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 59.
Changes in the biosphere: fewer frost days in winter mean more exotic invasive species- Switzerland, 1900-2000.
Source: Walther, 2000, cited in Walther et al, 2002, Ecological responses to recent climate change, Nature vol. 416.
Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, pp. 48-49.
Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, pp. 50-51.
Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 57 (originally from Emanuel, 2006, Nature).
Temperature profile through the atmosphere: warming troposphere, cooling stratosphere.
Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 39.
The original ‘hockey stick’: northern hemisphere temperature reconstruction since 1400.
Source: Mann, Bradley and Hughes, 1998, Global scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries, Nature vol. 392.
Northern hemisphere temperature change over the last 1000 years.
Source: IPCC, 2001.
Source: Houghton, 2009, p. 80.
Northern hemisphere temperature change over the last 1300 years, derived from 10 different reconstructions.
Medieval Warm Period, ~900-1300
Little Ice Age, ~1450-1850
Reconstructions of global temperature patterns during Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA).
Source: Mann et al., 2009, Global signatures and dynamical origins of the LIA and MCA, Science vol. 326.
Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 47; see also Archer, 2012, p. 145.