Human Population

Dr. Isaac Asimov (in this 1966 interview he predicted that world population would reach 6 billion near the year 2000. We passed the 6 billion mark in October 1999.)

"Which is the greater danger - nuclear warfare or the population explosion? The latter absolutely! To bring about nuclear war, someone has to DO something; someone has to press a button. To bring about destruction by overcrowding, mass starvation, anarchy, the destruction of our most cherished values-there is no need to do anything. We need only do nothing except what comes naturally - and breed. And how easy it is to do nothing."

LINEAR vs. EXPONENTIAL

http://www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/animations/world_population/

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Countries and Areas Ranked by Population: 2009 Rank Country or Area Population

1 China 1,338,612,968 2 India 1,156,897,7663 United States 307,212,1234 Indonesia 240,271,5225 Brazil 198,739,2696 Pakistan 174,578,5587 Bangladesh 156,050,8838 Nigeria149,229,0909 Russia140,041,24710Japan127,078,679237 Pitcairn Islands48

DemographyThe study of the size, composition, & distribution of human populations and consequences of changes in these characteristics.

2009 Population Growth RatesUnited States = 0.98%China growth rate = 0.66%India growth rate = 1.41%Kenya growth rate = 2.69%

How to use this number: Multiply the countrys current population by this number to see next years population total

Rule of 70Determines how many years it will take a population to double in size. 70 = % growth rate

EX: % growth rate for world is = 1.13%

70 = 61 years 1.41

ZPGZero Population GrowthBirth = DeathImmigrants = EmigrantsPopulation growth rate = 0%

The Earths Goal for all countries

Japan is actually declining in population Annual growth rate = -0.13

Earths Human Annual Rate of Population Change1963 = 2.2%2009 = 1.13%Rate of the worlds population is slowing, BUT population went from 3.2 billion to 6.7 billion during this time!Developing Countries = 1.46%Developed Countries = 0.25%Fastest growing countries: INDIA, KENYA, PAKISTAN, NIGERIA, BANGLADESH, & INDONESIA.http://www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/animations/world_population/

Developing vs. Developed Countries

GDP

GDP = Gross Domestic ProductGoods & services provided within a country

Per Capita GDP = GDP divided by total populationAssumes each person gets equal share

Developing CountriesPer capita GDP

List of Least Developed CountriesUN 2008

1. Afghanistan 2. Angola3. Bangladesh11. Chad17. EthiopiaPer capita GDP$700 (03)$1900 (04)$1900 (03) $1200 (03)$700 (03)

Reasons for Large Families in Developing CountriesOld age securityInfant and childhood mortality ratesChildren are an economic assetGrow food, gather fuel, tend livestock, beg, carry water

Developed CountryPer capita GDP >$4,000Highly industrializedUrban, industrial, educated, & wealthy20% of worlds population85% of wealth80 - 90% of resource usage

Per capita GDP (2008)#1 - Liechtenstein#3 - Norway$87,070#14 United States $47,763#25 Canada - $41,730#74 Mexico - $9,980#127 China - $2,940#163 India - $1,070

Population Increase in Developed and Developing CountriesWhere should we implement mechanisms to slow population growth?

Fertility Rates

Whats this showing?

Global Fertility RatesFertility # of births that occur to an individual woman in a population.

Replacement Level Fertility# of children needed to replace their parentsProjected number... should have

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)Average # of children that a woman has during her fertile years.Actual, real numberdoes have

Global Fertility RatesReplacement Level Fertility Rates (1997)Developed countries = 2.1 childrenDeveloping countries = 2.5 children(Since some baby girls die before they reproduce, the number is slightly greater than two.)Also, not every woman has a child

Total Fertility Rates (TFR) (1997)World Average = 3.0 childrenDeveloped = 1.6 children2.5 children in 1950.Developing = 3.4 children6.5 children in 1950.

TFRAfrica has the highest in worldU.S. has had higher than most developed countries:Large # of baby boomers = momsIncreased number of unmarried mothersIncreased fertility rates in some racial/ethnic groupsLegal/illegal immigrants (11% of population are foreign born. (NOVA 2007)

Factors Affecting Birth & Fertility RatesIncreasing Factors

Children in labor forceRural areasLack of birth controlReligious/cultural values against birth controlLack of abortion accessYounger than 25 at marriageFew jobs for womenLack of educational opportunitiesDecreasing Factors

Low infant mortality rateEducational & job opportunities for womenAffluenceCost of raising childrenUrbanizationOlder than 25 at marriageAvailability of pension systems

Fertility Rate and Income

Contraceptive Use and Fertility Rates

Measures of Overall HealthLife expectancyAverage # of years a newborn can expect to liveDeveloped countries = 71 years (1997); 77 (2007)Developing countries = 62 years (1997); 64.5 (2007)

Infant Mortality Rate# of babies out of every 1,000 who die before their first birthday.Reflects a countrys level of nutrition & health careSingle best measure of a societys quality of life.

Factors Affecting Death RatesPopulation increase over the past 100 years most influenced by the decrease in death rates!

Better food supplies & distributionBetter nutritionBetter water suppliesAdvances in medicine & sanitation

MIGRATIONIs not always voluntaryInvoluntary displacement by:Armed conflictEnvironmental degradationNatural disaster

Know the differences. MatchPopulation growth rateIMRZPGRule of 70TFRReplacement fertility

How many kids the moms in a pop are havingHow many infants die per 1000 bornUses current growth rate to estimate when pop will doubleMultiply the total # of people in the population by this number to project future popPopulation is stable. B = DHow many kids the moms in a pop have to have to keep the numbers the same

Know the differences.4. Population growth rate2. IMR5. ZPG3. Rule of 701. TFR6. Replacement fertility

How many infants die per 1000 bornPopulation is stable. B = DUses current growth rate to estimate when pop will doubleHow many kids the moms in a pop are havingHow many kids the moms in a pop have to have to keep the numbers the sameRefers to actual number of births (or deaths) that occur per 1000 people

Population Age Structure

Age Structure DiagramsThe % of males & females in the total population divided by age groups:

0 - 14 yrs = Pre-Productive ages15 - 44 yrs = Reproductive ages45 - older yrs = Post-Reproductive ages

***The MAJOR determining factor of a countrys future population growth is: the number of pre-productive people! (Under 15 yrs).

Where are the baby boomers?http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/summaries.html

Is this population growing or shrinking?

Is this population growing or shrinking?

Disadvantages to declining populationsIncreased demand for Medical careSocial SecurityPublic services2.5 elderly to every 1 young personU.S. = 31.9% projected tax rate to pay for services. Italy = 71.5% payroll taxLabor shortagesAlleviated by automation or immigration

Projecting Future Populations: Developed Countries

Population Projections: Developing Nations

Remember, what percent of the total population is developing?

Population PowerIn 2000, 31% of people on the planet were under 15 yrs old. (1.9 billion people)34% of population in developing countries19% of population in developed countries

Even if each woman only has 1 or 2 children, the overall population size will soar!

How to slow or stop this exponential growth?Effective methods to slow birth ratesDrastic rise in death ratesWould a bird flu pandemic be bad for the Earth????

The Demographic Transition

Demographic TransitioningPRE-INDUSTRIAL STAGEHarsh living conditions lead to high birth rate (high IMR) & high death rateTRANSITIONAL STAGEIndustrialization begins, food production goes up, healthcare improvesdeath decreases but birth rates stay highRapid growth

Demographic TransitioningINDUSTRIAL STAGEIndustrialization is widespread. Jobs increase, education & its cost increase, IMR goes down, birth control use is up. Birth rate approaches death ratePOST-INDUSTRIAL STAGEZPG achieved, population size decreases as birth rate continues to fallSustainable economic devt37 countries (mostly W. Europe) have entered

Population Control

Chinas Population ControlSocialist dictatorship1960s realized only option to population control was mass starvation!

Instituted social coercion planFree birth control, abortions, & sterilizationsEncouraged to marry at later age & only 1 kid

Between 1972 2000Crude birth rate drop 50%TFR dropped from 5.7 to 1.8

Chinas One Child PolicyCouples who pledged only one child:

Extra foodLarger pensionsBetter housingFree medical careSalary bonusesFree school tuitionPreferential treatment in employment markets

Chinas One Child PolicyEffectiveness81% of married women in China are using modern contraceptionIncreased employment opportunities for women.ProblemsGirls are aborted, killed, and neglected2007 do not have equal number of sexes

Ask students to observe and interpret what this graph means*What is dangerous about this pyramid? Ans: India has the 2nd largest population, which is poised to expand greatly as the youth agesWhat would limit this growth? Ans: unsanitary conditions that lead to large infant mortality*What will happen to this population? Ans: decrease note the smaller number of youthCover female portion and ask same question.*80%*