Humboldt County Economy2007

Presented to Eureka Old Town Rotary Club

November 6, 2007

Humboldt County Economy2007

By Erick Eschker

Department of Economics

Humboldt State University

Humboldt Economic Index

www.humboldt.edu/~indexhum/index.htm

Humboldt Economic Index Sponsors

Six Sectors and Composite

• Energy

• Lumber-based manufacturing

• Employment

• Hospitality

• Retail

• Housing

• Composite

Energy• Not much has changed in two years

Humbodt County Energy Consumption

(seasonally adjusted)

0

100

200

300

S ep-

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun S ep-in

dex

val

ues

Electricity Natural Gas

Lumber Manufacturing• Structural Decline but high variability

Lumber-based Manufacturing Index (seasonally adjusted)

50

60

70

80

90

Sep-0

5Dec M

arJu

nSep Dec M

arJu

n

Sep-0

7

The seasonally adjusted Manufacturing index is represented by the blue area in the graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.

Employment• Very little change in overall employment• Unemployment rate has risen recently

Unemployment Rates September '06 - September '07

(seasonally adjusted)

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Sep OctNov Dec Ja

nFeb M

ar AprM

ay Jun Ju

lAug Sep

State National County

Hospitality• Slight upward trend

Hospitality (seasonally adjusted)

75

85

95

Sep-0

7Dec M

arJu

nSep Dec M

arJu

n

Sep-0

7

Ind

ex v

alu

e

The seasonally adjusted Hospitality index is represented by the blue area in the graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.

Retail• Based on our own survey (we’re always looking

for more data providers!)

Retail (seasonally adjusted)

120

130140

150

160170

180

Sep Dec Mar

Jun

Sep Dec Mar

Jun

Sep

Ind

ex

valu

e

The seasonally adjusted Retail Index is represented by the blue area in the graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.

Housing

• New Real Estate Page on the Index

• Significant sales drop since summer 2005

• 40% drop July-Sept (record drop)

• Sales now at 1997 levels

Housing

House Price to Rent Ratio• Rose very quickly starting in 2003

Composite• Decline since May• Housing and Manufacturing the main reason

Seasonally Adjusted Composite Index

100

105

110

115

Sept'05

Dec'05

Mar'06

Jun'06

Sept'06

Dec'06

Mar'07

Jun'07

Sep'07

Forecast• We don’t do forecasts• Two local Leading Indicators show slowing

Forecast• This is an important time

– Recession? Credit Crunch? Inflation?

• Federal Reserve Economist on Oct. 22

• Uncertainty:– Financial Markets– Housing– Energy Prices– Consumer Spending