hurricane decision making presented by: larry gispert
TRANSCRIPT
HURRICANE DECISION HURRICANE DECISION MAKINGMAKING
PRESENTED PRESENTED BY:BY: LARRY LARRY GISPERTGISPERT
A MONTAGE OF THE TRACK OF HURRICANE GEORGES
FROM 18 - 28 OF SEP. 1998
A MONTAGE OF THE TRACK OF HURRICANE GEORGES
FROM 18 - 28 OF SEP. 1998
THE AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
HAS...
THE AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
HAS...
1010 NAMED STORMS, OF WHICHNAMED STORMS, OF WHICH
66 WILL BE HURRICANES WILL BE HURRICANES
22 WILL BE MAJOR HURRICANESWILL BE MAJOR HURRICANES
Dr. Gray’s Predictionsstorms – hurricanes - majors
Dr. Gray’s Predictionsstorms – hurricanes - majors
1998 9 – 6 – 4 1999 14 – 9 – 4 2000 11 – 7 - 3 2001 12 – 7 – 2 2002 11 – 6 – 2 2003 14 – 8 - 3
1998 14 – 10 – 41998 14 – 10 – 4 1999 12 – 8 - 51999 12 – 8 - 5 2000 14 – 8 - 32000 14 – 8 - 3 2001 15 – 9 – 42001 15 – 9 – 4 2002 12 – 4 – 22002 12 – 4 – 2 2003 16 – 7 - 32003 16 – 7 - 3
Predicted ActualActual
1995-1999MOST ACTIVE FIVE YEARS IN HISTORY
1995-1999MOST ACTIVE FIVE YEARS IN HISTORY
65 NAMED STORMS, OF WHICH65 NAMED STORMS, OF WHICH
41 WERE HURRICANES 41 WERE HURRICANES
21 WERE MAJOR HURRICANES21 WERE MAJOR HURRICANES
REMEMBER, LARRY SAYS….REMEMBER, LARRY SAYS….
REGARDLESS OF HOW MANY REGARDLESS OF HOW MANY STORMS ARE PREDICTED FOR STORMS ARE PREDICTED FOR THE YEAR…..IT ONLY TAKES THE YEAR…..IT ONLY TAKES
ONE TO RUIN YOUR WHOLE ONE TO RUIN YOUR WHOLE DAYDAY
PROBABILITY OF A STORM COMING TO TAMPA BAY
PROBABILITY OF A STORM COMING TO TAMPA BAY
TROPICAL STORM 1 - IN - 10TROPICAL STORM 1 - IN - 10
HURRICANE 1 - IN - 17HURRICANE 1 - IN - 17
MAJOR HURRICANE 1 - IN - 25MAJOR HURRICANE 1 - IN - 25
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALESAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE
CATEGORY WINDSPEED
SURGEHEIGHTS
DAMAGE
1 74-95 7’ MINOR
2 96-110 13’ MODERATE
3 111-130 18’ MAJOR
4 131-155 22’ SEVERE
5 155+ 28’ CAT.
HURRICANE POPULATION AT RISK (2000 figures)
HURRICANE POPULATION AT RISK (2000 figures)
County 1 2 3 4 5HILLS. 173,628 234,762 288,911 336,712 366,769
MAN. 99,090 115,692 128,213 142,825 159,497
PASCO 136,757 156,027 200,000 245,136 274,288
PINE. 238,601 340,794 450,732 539,937 627,702
TOTAL 648,076 847,275 1,067,856 1,264,610 1,428,256
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY
EVACUATION ZONES
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY
EVACUATION ZONES
Yea!right
LARRY
YOUR TYPICAL LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGER
THE EMERGENCY MANAGER’S PLIGHT
THE EMERGENCY MANAGER’S PLIGHT
IF HE DOES EVERYTHING RIGHT IF HE DOES EVERYTHING RIGHT AND RECOMMENDS EVACUATION AND RECOMMENDS EVACUATION
WHEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES CALL WHEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES CALL
FOR IT….FOR IT…. 4 4 OUT OF OUT OF 55 TIMES THE TIMES THE STORM WILL TURN AND GO STORM WILL TURN AND GO
ELSEWHERE…....ELSEWHERE…....
EYE OF STORM IS 24 HRS. , BUT 39 MPH WINDS ARE 12 HRS. AWAY FROM TAMPA
EYE OF STORM IS 24 HRS. , BUT 39 MPH WINDS ARE 12 HRS. AWAY FROM TAMPA
NHC NORMAL TRACK ERROR
72 HRS. + or - 360 MILES
48 HRS. + or - 220 MILES
36 HRS. + or - 160 MILES
24 HRS. + or - 100 MILES
12 HRS. + or - 50 MILES
NHC NORMAL TRACK ERROR
72 HRS. + or - 360 MILES
48 HRS. + or - 220 MILES
36 HRS. + or - 160 MILES
24 HRS. + or - 100 MILES
12 HRS. + or - 50 MILES
EYEEYE
39 MPH WINDS
39 MPH WINDS
DURING HURRICANE GEORGESDURING HURRICANE GEORGES
OF THE 162,480 PEOPLE IN OF THE 162,480 PEOPLE IN HILLSBOROUGH WHO WERE HILLSBOROUGH WHO WERE
SUPPOSED TO EVACUATE, ONLY SUPPOSED TO EVACUATE, ONLY ABOUT 57,000 ACTUALLY DID….ABOUT 57,000 ACTUALLY DID….
REMEMBER, WE EVACUATE FOR SURGE
NOT WIND
REMEMBER, WE EVACUATE FOR SURGE
NOT WIND
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE IS MOBILE HOMES, WHO RULE IS MOBILE HOMES, WHO
MUST ALWAYS EVACUATEMUST ALWAYS EVACUATE
Courtney Campbell Causeway,
east end looking westward
New Office building on
Boyscout & Westshore
Dillard’s at Westshore Mall
Marriott Waterside
Downtown Tampa
Tampa General Hospital
on Davis Islands
MONTE CARLO TOWERSBAYSHORE BLVD.
Vencor Hospital
Interbay area
Downtown Tampa looking southward
from the Cass Street Bridge
Marathon Oil Terminals on
Palmetto Beach
FACTORS WE CONSIDER WHEN MAKING AN EVACUATION
DECISION
FACTORS WE CONSIDER WHEN MAKING AN EVACUATION
DECISION
TIME OF DAY FOR EVACUATION...TIME OF DAY FOR EVACUATION... SIZE AND TRACK OF STORM PROJECTED SIZE AND TRACK OF STORM PROJECTED
AT LANDFALL...AT LANDFALL... TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF
TROPICAL/GALE FORCE WINDS (39MPH)...TROPICAL/GALE FORCE WINDS (39MPH)... WHEN BEST TO CLOSE AREA SCHOOLS?WHEN BEST TO CLOSE AREA SCHOOLS? ANY SPECIAL EVENTS GOING ON...ANY SPECIAL EVENTS GOING ON... CONDITION OF ROADWAY NETWORK…CONDITION OF ROADWAY NETWORK…
IF YOU MUST EVACUATEIF YOU MUST EVACUATE
DO IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLEDO IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE GO TO THE HOME OF FRIENDS OR FAMILY GO TO THE HOME OF FRIENDS OR FAMILY
WHO LIVE IN A NON-EVACUATION ZONE.WHO LIVE IN A NON-EVACUATION ZONE. GO TO HOTEL, MOTEL.GO TO HOTEL, MOTEL. AS A LAST RESORT GO TO PUBLIC AS A LAST RESORT GO TO PUBLIC
SHELTERS OR LEAVE THE REGION.SHELTERS OR LEAVE THE REGION. REMEMBER MONEY, PAPERS, ID, MEDICINE REMEMBER MONEY, PAPERS, ID, MEDICINE
AND ARRANGE FOR PET CARE.AND ARRANGE FOR PET CARE.
IF YOU DON’T HAVE TO EVACUATE
IF YOU DON’T HAVE TO EVACUATE
STAY HOME AND PROTECT YOUR STAY HOME AND PROTECT YOUR WINDOWS AND OTHER OPENINGS.WINDOWS AND OTHER OPENINGS.
OFFER YOUR HOME TO SOME FAMILY OFFER YOUR HOME TO SOME FAMILY THAT MUST EVACUATE.THAT MUST EVACUATE.
GET PLENTY OF SUPPLIES….WATER, GET PLENTY OF SUPPLIES….WATER, FOOD, MEDICINE, BATTERIES, RADIO.FOOD, MEDICINE, BATTERIES, RADIO.
IDENTIFY YOUR SAFE-ROOM FOR THE IDENTIFY YOUR SAFE-ROOM FOR THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
TAKE PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR
OWN SAFETY
TAKE PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR
OWN SAFETY
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY HAS HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY HAS NEARLY A MILLION PEOPLE LIVING NEARLY A MILLION PEOPLE LIVING HERE AND CLOSE TO 400,000 MAY HERE AND CLOSE TO 400,000 MAY
HAVE TO EVACUATEHAVE TO EVACUATE
NO ONE IS EXEMPT FROM A MANDATORY EVACUATION
ORDER
NO ONE IS EXEMPT FROM A MANDATORY EVACUATION
ORDER
BE SMART, BE SAFE, OBEY THE BE SMART, BE SAFE, OBEY THE LAW AND EVACUATE WHEN LAW AND EVACUATE WHEN
ORDERED TO DO SO. ORDERED TO DO SO. EVACUATION IS EVACUATION IS YOUR YOUR
RESPONSIBILITYRESPONSIBILITY
DISASTER RECOVERY PRIORITIES
DISASTER RECOVERY PRIORITIES
SEARCH AND RESCUE FOR VICTIMS...SEARCH AND RESCUE FOR VICTIMS... RESTORATION OF CRITICAL RESTORATION OF CRITICAL
SERVICES/FACILITIES...SERVICES/FACILITIES... DEBRIS MANAGEMENT...DEBRIS MANAGEMENT... PROVISION OF BASIC NEEDS TO PROVISION OF BASIC NEEDS TO
POPULATION...POPULATION... VICTIM/INSURANCE CO. INTERFACE...VICTIM/INSURANCE CO. INTERFACE...
ECONOMIC IMPACT TO THE TAMPA BAY REGION FROM A
WORST-CASE STORM
ECONOMIC IMPACT TO THE TAMPA BAY REGION FROM A
WORST-CASE STORM
$42.5 BILLION OF $42.5 BILLION OF INFRASTRUCTURE/CONTENTS LOSS……INFRASTRUCTURE/CONTENTS LOSS……
DOES NOT INCLUDE AN UNSPECIFIED DOES NOT INCLUDE AN UNSPECIFIED AMOUNT OF LOSS DUE TO LOST JOBS, AMOUNT OF LOSS DUE TO LOST JOBS,
TOURISM, ETC…… TOURISM, ETC……
TBRPC STUDY…..1992TBRPC STUDY…..1992
REMEMBER, THE SAGE OF DISASTERS PREACHES…..REMEMBER, THE SAGE OF DISASTERS PREACHES…..
IF YOU FAIL TO PLAN………IF YOU FAIL TO PLAN………
THEN YOU HAD BETTER PLAN TO THEN YOU HAD BETTER PLAN TO FAIL…..FAIL…..
THANK YOU VERY MUCHTHANK YOU VERY MUCH
IT HAS BEEN A PLEASURE SPEAKING IT HAS BEEN A PLEASURE SPEAKING WITH YOU REMEMBER ALWAYS WITH YOU REMEMBER ALWAYS
THINK THINK
“ “SUNSHINE”SUNSHINE”