hurricane dorian briefing · situation overview main change from yesterday is that dorian has a...
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HURRICANE DORIANBRIEFING
www.weather.gov/Atlanta
Friday, August 30, 2019
NWSAtlanta
12:30 PM EDT
Prepared by:
WFO Atlanta/Peachtree City
8/30/2019 12:24 PM www.weather.gov/Atlanta
Atlanta/Peachtree CityWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Situation Overview
▪ Main change from yesterday is that Dorian has a slower track – any impacts to portions of north and central Georgia could be more in the middle to end of next week.
▪ System is expected to slow/stall after landfall along the eastern Florida peninsula Tuesday morning before slowly turning northward and moving along the Southeastern Atlantic seaboard.
▪ Lack of upper-level steering flow continues to lead to storm track uncertainty beyond Monday/Tuesday. Exact impacts to north and central Georgia are still unclear.
Hurricane Dorian
8/30/2019 12:24 PM www.weather.gov/Atlanta
Atlanta/Peachtree CityWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
• Current satellite view of
Hurricane Dorian; now
a high-end Category 2
Hurricane (110 mph).
• Dorian strengthened to
Category 2 yesterday
evening and is soon
expected to strengthen
into a ‘Major’ Hurricane
• Further intensification is
expected over the next
few days before landfall.
Current Satellite ViewHurricane Dorian
8/30/2019 12:24 PM www.weather.gov/Atlanta
Atlanta/Peachtree CityWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
▪ Dorian continues to intensify and is expected
to make landfall early Tuesday morning as a
major hurricane (Category 4 with 140 mph
sustained winds)
▪ Models are showing increased confidence that
the storm will make landfall along the south-
central coast of eastern Florida.
▪ Uncertainty continues to exist on Dorian’s
track after landfall but the storm is still
expected to turn north/northeastward toward
southern Georgia.
Situation OverviewHurricane Dorian
NOTE: Do not focus on the exact track. Impacts can occur well outside the area
enclosed by the cone.
8/30/2019 12:24 PM www.weather.gov/Atlanta
Atlanta/Peachtree CityWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
▪ Upper-level steering flow is
expected to weaken as Dorian
approaches Florida coast.
▪ This leads to high levels of
uncertainty as to the exact
track of the storm.
▪ Dorian is also expected
slow/stall before turning north
after Monday/Tuesday.
Model UncertaintyHurricane Dorian
8/30/2019 12:24 PM www.weather.gov/Atlanta
Atlanta/Peachtree CityWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
Threat LevelsHurricane Dorian
Winds Rainfall/Flooding Tornadoes
Incre
asi
ng T
hre
at
For information on specific hazards in this area,
please go to https://www.weather.gov/ffc
8/30/2019 12:24 PM www.weather.gov/Atlanta
Atlanta/Peachtree CityWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
▪Increasing probabilities as
Dorian approaches Florida
▪Central Georgia currently
has 10-30 percent chance
(through day 5 - Tuesday),
though this is likely to
change with updates
TS Wind Speed ProbabilitiesHurricane Dorian
8/30/2019 12:24 PM www.weather.gov/Atlanta
Atlanta/Peachtree CityWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
▪ Storm Total rainfall forecast
valid through Thursday Night
▪ Flood threat likely to increase if
system slows/stalls
▪ Heaviest rainfall totals are likely
to be along the coast
Expected Storm Total RainfallHurricane Dorian
Note: There will likely be locally higher amounts
8/30/2019 12:24 PM www.weather.gov/Atlanta
Atlanta/Peachtree CityWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
▪ Storm Total rainfall forecast
valid Tuesday through
Thursday Night
▪ Current forecast is subject
to change with updated
track information.
▪ However, the heaviest
rainfall expected locally will
be towards the
southeastern forecast area
with 3-4” currently
expected.
Expected Storm Total Rainfall – GeorgiaHurricane Dorian
8/30/2019 12:24 PM www.weather.gov/Atlanta
Atlanta/Peachtree CityWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
▪ Main change from yesterday is that Dorian has a slower track – any impacts to portions of north and central Georgia could be more in the middle to end of next week.
▪ System is expected to slow/stall after landfall along the eastern Florida peninsula Tuesday morning before slowly turning northward and moving along the Southeastern Atlantic seaboard.
▪ Lack of upper-level steering flow continues to lead to storm track uncertainty beyond Monday/Tuesday. Exact impacts to north and central Georgia are still unclear.
Key Take-AwaysHurricane Dorian
www.weather.gov/AtlantaNWSAtlanta
The Next Briefing Will Be:
Saturday 12:30 PM EDT
Slides available at http://www.weather.gov/ffc/briefings
You can always find get the latest graphics and information for this storm at www.hurricanes.gov
Web: http://weather.gov/atlanta
Phone: (770) 486-1133
Twitter: @NWSAtlanta
YouTube: NWSAtlanta