Hurricane Evacuation Decision Support Systems and Related Research & Development Recommendations

Presented by

Richard WagonerNational Center for Atmospheric Research

National Hurricane ConferenceWashington, DC9 April, 2001

Hurricane Evacuation Decision Support Systems and Related Research & Development Recommendations

Winter Road Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) Prototype Development

Presented by

Bill Mahoney

National Center for Atmospheric Research

MDSS Objective

To utilize state-of-the-art atmospheric scienceand engineering approaches to address andimprove the performanceof the roadmaintenancepractitioner.

MDSS Goals• Capitalize on existing road weather data sources.

• Augment data sources where they are weak.

• Fuse data to make an integrated and

understandable presentation

of road conditions.

• Provide diagnostic and prognostic information.

MDSS Goals (continued)

• Provide display capability for the condition of the roadway.

• Develop a decision support tool that provides recommendations on road maintenance courses of action together with anticipated consequences of action or inaction.

• Provide all the above on a single platform.

MDSS Prototype Components

WeatherData

AdvancedWeather

Capabilities DecisionSupport

Logic

Display

DOT Operations Data

RoadConditionModule

External SystemInterface

MDSS Prototype Focus Areas

Weather Component Focus :

• Event start and stop times• Surface temperature• Precipitation type• Precipitation rate• Precipitation accumulation• Conditional probabilities• Surface wind speed• Surface wind direction• Surface visibility

MDSS Prototype Focus Areas

Road Component Focus:

• Pavement temperature and trends• Pavement chemical concentration• Pavement friction coefficient• Pavement contamination (liquid, snow, ice, etc.)• Snow drifting

MDSS Prototype Focus Areas

Decision Support System Component Focus:

• Monitor weather & road conditions• Monitor probability & intensity of weather threat• Crew scheduling• Manage crew shifts• Dispatch crews to treat roadway• Coordinate emergency management• Manage incidents• Monitor crew working time• Post event clean up

Proposed Engineering Approach for MDSS

Eta ModelMRF ModelAVN ModelNGM MOSSatelliteMETARSRadar MosaicSYNOPLightning

DICAST Processor Wx Output:

Wind SpeedWind DirectionRHAir TempPrecip RatePrecip TypeLightningRadar MosaicVisibilityDew PointPrecip AccumCloud CoverInsolationNWS Advisories

NWS AdvisoriesOthers TBD

Road Condition Module:

Road FrictionRoad TemperatureSnow Drift

DSS Processor

Display

Demonstration

Data Interface to External Systems

Pass through Data

DOT “Wx” Data:

Video ImagesESS (Wx stations)

DOT Ops Data:

StaffEquipmentTreatment StocksTraffic DensityTraffic SpeedPavement Characteristics

Others TBD

DataIngest

Forecast Module A

Forecast Module B

Forecast Module C

Forecast Module D

Forecast Module N

.

.

.

Integrator

PostProcessing

ForecastProduct

Standard Wx Data

Ensemble Forecasts

Rules of PracticeModule

“NOAA”Weather Data

DOT Wx Data

DOTOperations

Data

Road ConditionModule

Decision SupportSystem Module

GIS Display

.

.

.

DataIngest

Forecast Module A

Forecast Module B

Forecast Module C

Forecast Module D

Forecast Module N

ForecastIntegrator

PostProcessor

ForecastProduct

DICAST

WeatherParameter

Output

Point & TimeSpecificOutput

Conceptual System Diagram for MDSS

Eta ModelMRF ModelAVN ModelNGM MOSSatelliteMETARSRadar MosaicSYNOPLightning

DICAST Processor Wx Output:

Wind SpeedWind DirectionRHAir TempPrecip RatePrecip TypeLightningRadar MosaicVisibilityDew PointPrecip AccumCloud CoverInsolationNWS Advisories

NWS AdvisoriesOthers TBD

Road Condition Module:

Road FrictionRoad TemperatureSnow Drift

DSS Processor

Display

Demonstration

Data Interface to External Systems

Pass through Data

DOT “Wx” Data:

Video ImagesESS (Wx stations)

DOT Ops Data:

StaffEquipmentTreatment StocksTraffic DensityTraffic SpeedPavement Characteristics

Others TBD

DataIngest

Forecast Module A

Forecast Module B

Forecast Module C

Forecast Module D

Forecast Module N

.

.

.

Integrator

PostProcessing

ForecastProduct

Standard Wx Data

Ensemble Forecasts

Rules of PracticeModule

GIS Display

DataIngest

Forecast Module A

Forecast Module B

Forecast Module C

Forecast Module D

Forecast Module N

ForecastIntegrator

PostProcessor

ForecastProduct

DICAST

.

.

.

Chemical Concentration

Weather Data

Point & TimeSpecificOutput

Environmental Prediction Sites

Environmental prediction parameters will be generated along the road.

These data will be used by the road condition algorithms.

Translation of Environmental Data to Road Condition Information

Environmental Data Grids

Road condition information provided at user configurable locations along the road.

Road conditionalgorithmsconvert environmentaldata at road points

Special Features of the MDSS

• Takes advantage of standard & road weather sensor data via intelligent data integration.

• Utilizes an automated, high resolution forecast system with advanced data fusion techniques.

• Provides probability (confidence) information for environmental parameters.

Special Features of the MDSS

• Has the capability of utilizing several road condition algorithms to provide a “best” solution.

• Merges environmental & operational data within the DSS.

• Provides decision guidance in decision space and provides recommended courses of action and allows users to evaluate other courses of action.

MDSS Technology Applications

Winter Maintenance

Emergency Management

Traffic Management

Hurricane Evacuation

Weed Spraying Sweeping Operations Controlled Burns

Public Notification

Pavement Marking

Paving Operations

Warning Preparation

MDSS Core Technology

Proposed Architecture of Hurricane Evacuation DSS

Hurricane Evacuation Subsystem• Focused on 24 – 48 hr period prior to gale force winds on

the coast• Updated every six hours in phase with NHC advisories• Uses weather, incident,

maintenance and traffic modeling data to show decision makers estimated evacuation rates andproblem areas

• Between update times, “what if” scenarios can be run to estimate impact of track and intensity changes

Proposed Architecture of Hurricane Evacuation DSS

• Focused on weather and road conditions as gale force winds, heavy rain, lightning and tornadoes move inland

• Continuous monitor mode with updates every 5 – 15 minutes

• Maximum wind, accumulated rainfall, rainfall rate, and lightning rate displayed for key locations designated by emergency managers

Tactical Support for Emergency Response Subsystem

Proposed Architecture of Hurricane Evacuation DSS

• System will be used for timing post-storm responses to ensure safety of crews

• Storm location and past track displayed

• Future storm locations with estimatedwind and rainfall forecasts displayed for every 3 hrs out to 12 hours

• Road condition information constantly updated

Tactical Support for Emergency Response Subsystem

Recommended Research & Development Areas

• Application of new data fusion techniques to TPC operations to improve 1 – 5 day track and intensity forecasts

• Optimal methods for utilizing weather informationin traffic models

• Validation of DSS’s in operational settings

The Endwagoner@ucar.edu

303-497-8404