hurricane preparedness in fort bend county
TRANSCRIPT
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Hurricane Ike Review/Outlook for 2010Looking Back at Ike
Dan Reilly
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston
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Outline
• Hurricane History/Climatology
• Outlook for 2010 Season
• Changes for 2010 to NWS Products
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Oil Spill Update:
May 21st, 2010
http://response.restoration.noaa.gov
June 1st, 2010
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/?n=embriefing
Loop Current
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Tropical Cyclone HazardsTropical Cyclone Hazards
Storm SurgeStorm Surge TornadoesTornadoes
FloodingFloodingDamaging WindsDamaging Winds
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Hurricane Threats
Maximum storm surge
and wind occur in right
forward quadrant, near where
center crosses the
coast
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Radar loop for Ike
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Early Rise Trapped some on Bolivar, Galveston Island
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Hurricane Ike: Hurricane Ike: Bolivar Peninsula Bolivar Peninsula DevastationDevastation
Image courtesy of www.hawkeyemedia.com/bolivar/
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Tropical Storm Allison June 2001 Looped Over SE Texas; 36.99 inches of rain Port of Houston
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Tropical Storm Claudette July 1979. Looped Over SE Texas; 43 inches of rain measured in Alvin over 24 hours (record)
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Hurricane Climatology (continued)
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Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index (ACE)Measure of Tropical Cyclone activity: Sum of the square of the maximum wind speed of
all storms at least Tropical Storm strength every 6 hours
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Outlook for 2010• NOAA Outlook
– 14-23 named storms (11-12)
– 8-14 Hurricanes (5-6)
– 3-7 Major Hurricanes (2-3)
– ACE 155%-270% of median
• Loss of El Nino, active phase of MDO, and above average sea surface temperatures suggest above average activity
• Even a low activity season can have a big effect locally: need to prepare
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Least active season 1983 (4 named storms!)Least active season 1983 (4 named storms!)
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Changes to NWS Products
• Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watches and Warnings issued 12 hours earlier (48 hours for watches, 36 hours for warnings prior to onset of TS force winds)
• Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale adopted (ties of category to surge and central pressure taken out of the scale)
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Category 1-min. Sustained Winds (mph)
Storm Examples Wind Impacts
1 74 - 95 Jerry 1989 Very dangerous; will produce
Claudette 2003 some damage
Humberto 2007
2 96 - 110 Georges 1998
Ike 2008
Extremely dangerous; will produce extensive damage
3 111 - 130 Alicia 1983 Devastating damage
Katrina 2005
Rita 2005
4 131 - 155 1900 - Galveston Catastrophic damage
Carla 1961
5 > 156 Labor Day 1935 Catastrophic damage
Camille 1969
Andrew 1992
Now officially adopted: just a wind rating without reference to surge, central pressure
New Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
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Summary
• Ike was a very large storm, tremendous surge producer
• Category of storm not a good overall indicator of storm severity
• 2010 season will likely be more active for Atlantic; no telling how Texas may be impacted