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Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

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Page 1: Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Hurricane Research in NOAA

Frank MarksNOAA HFIP Project Lead62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Page 2: Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

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• Significantly improve forecast guidance with modeling systems capturing range of natural variability in tropical cyclone track, intensity and structure with sufficient fidelity to predict rapid intensity changes with minimal uncertainty.

VisionVision

ensembles

VTMAX

Page 3: Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

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• What physical processes limit predictability of track, intensity and structure?• Large scale wind and moisture structure and variability• Convection in vorticity-rich environment (VHT)• Air-sea exchange of momentum and enthalpy• Vortex dynamics and evolution (resiliency, mixing, VRW)• Upper ocean structure and mesoscale variability• Aerosols and microphysics

• What is best way to represent natural variability of processes in model system?• Ensembles (multi-model, single model/multiple physics, /initial

state, /resolutions, etc.)• Representation of physical processes• Resolution, domain size, and nesting

• What is best mix of data for model initialization?

Overarching ResearchOverarching Research

Page 4: Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

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HFIPHFIP• Unified NOAA approach to guide and accelerate

improvements in forecasts, with emphasis on rapid intensity change, and reduction in uncertainty.

• Improve forecasts and increase confidence to enhance mitigation and preparedness decisions.

• Responds to input from stakeholders, NSB, OFCM, and HIRWG reports.

• Embraces strong collaboration with non-NOAA partners with objective to transition research into operations.

Page 5: Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

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• Intensity and structure change, with emphasis on RI: processes that modulate internal storm dynamics and storm interactions with atmosphere and ocean;

• Track: interactions between tropical cyclone and its environment through optimal use of observations;

• Forecast Uncertainty: global and regional model ensembles to bound uncertainty and test predictability

HFIP Research ThrustsHFIP Research Thrusts

<V>

VMAX

Page 6: Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

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• Improve HFS/GFS to reduce error in track and intensity forecasts

• Optimize new and existing observing systems to enhance research and operations capabilities and impacts

• Expand forecast tools and applications to aid forecasters

HFIP ComponentsHFIP Components

UnderstandingUnderstanding

FF

Page 7: Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

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Overlap with Table 5.1 with focus on transition to operations:

• Guide and accelerate HFS improvements (HFS)• Develop observing system strategy analysis

capability (OSE)• Fully fund transition of research to operations (R2O)• Increase high performance computing (res & ops) • Coordinate with research community on basic

research• NOAA cannot meet goals alone!• Broaden base of expertise in tropical cyclone research community • Work closely with federal, academic, and private sector communities

HFIP ObjectivesHFIP Objectives

Page 8: Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

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Table 5-1. Research Priorities in Atmospheric and Ocean Science

Research Topics

Type of Research B = Basi c; A =Applie d

NWP Model D e ve lop men t To pics

1. Tropical cyclone vortex initializat ion; ocea n initialization A

2. Atmos phe re-oce an boundary layer for couple d air-sea -wave proble m; mo me ntum (wave induced dr a g) and e ntha lpy fluxes (s e a spray co mplexity).

B,A

3. Land sur face coupling: C om plexity of coupling w/HWR F; se nsitivity of LS M on track, intensity a nd s tructure, prec ipitation A

4. Coupling of HWRF with hydrology/inundati on m od els. A

5. Verification for three dime nsional, high-res olution NWP m ode l for all pha s es of the tropica l cyclo ne life cycle; varying atmos phe re/o cea n env iron me nt.

A

6. Diagnostic tec hniques to further inc rease the utility of global m odels (e.g., NCE P, UKMO, NOGAPS ) in forecasti ng tropical cyclone ge nesis.

A

7. Deve lopm ent of a dva nce d, high-reso lution probabilistic gu ida nce (e.g., (en se mbles); optimal ens e mble constructi on a nd configuration; va lue of very high-res olution dete rministic forecasts vs. ens e mbles

A

Obs erv ation s an d Obse rving Strate gie s

1. Whe re to take obs e rvations for initialization of hurrica ne vortex; what is the hurrica ne “core” circu lation and how do we define?

A

2. Alternati ves and tradeoffs for observ ing sto rms and their envi ronme nt with in situ (e .g., buoys, a ircra ft) and r em ote s e ns ors (e.g., satelli te).

A

3. Require d obser vations to su pport m ode l diagnost ics and ve rification (e .g., IFEX effort le d by HRD). A

4. Te chniques to evaluate the unc e rta inty and repres entati veness of obs e rvations a nd us e of obs ervat ions for initializing NWP m ode ls.

A

5. Ne w obs ervat ional tec hnologies. B,A

OFCM TC Research PlanOFCM TC Research Plan

HFS

OSE

√ √

√ √ √

√ √

√ HFIP

R2O

B,

B,

B,

B,

B,

Page 9: Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

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Table 5-1. Research Priorities in Atmospheric and Ocean Science

Research Topics

Typ e o f Resear c h B = Basi c; A =Applie d

Gen eral Res ea rc h an d NWP Modeli ng To pic s

1. Role of inner co re processes on intensity a nd str ucture cha nges (e .g., eye wall re place me nt cycles, mixing). B

2. Relati ve role of vortex ve rsus e nvironm ent in influenc ing intensity a nd struct ure (e.g., role of vortex mixing a nd resi lie ncy [vortex Rossby wa ves a nd stab ility]).

B,A

3. Role of rainba nds on intensity and structu re chang es. B

4. Role of d ry air, midlevel e asterly jet, a nd su s pe nded m ine ral dust from S ah a ra n Air Layer on inte nsity and struct ure cha nges.

B,A

5. Role of ve rtical shear of horizontal wind on inte nsity and struct ure changes. B,A

6. Tropical cyclone genesis. B,A

7. Dete rmina nts of structure a nd re lationsh ip with preexisti ng wa ve distu rba nce; re lations hip be twe en structure a nd inte nsity. B

8. Role of ocea n; role of oce anic heat conte nt. B,A

9. Physics

a. Relati ve importa nce of physics (e.g., air-s e a fluxe s, microphysics , convecti on) on inte nsity and stru cture changes in various en viron me nts (e.g., sh e ared vs. non-shear )

b. Pro cesses with in a tmos phere-ocea n bounda ry layer on inte nsity/structure changes (i.e., mo me ntum and ent ha lpy fluxes ); role of bounda ry laye r wind structu re on the transf e r of energy a nd mass.

c. Role of rad iation a nd interact ion of ra diation with microphysics .

d. Role of vortex -sc a le moisture convergen ce and cloud microphysics in pre cipitation pro cesses.

e. Role of landfall effects (e .g., surface flux changes ) on inte nsity, structure, a nd prec ipitat ion proces se s .

f. Reso lution stud ies (cons ide ring a -e a bove ) to de te rmine what sca les can be explicitly resol ved .

B,A

OFCM TC Research PlanOFCM TC Research Plan

√ HFIP R2O

Page 10: Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Questions?

Page 11: Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Background Material

Page 12: Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

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HFIP Leadership (HEOB)HFIP Leadership (HEOB)The membership of the HFIP Executive Oversight Board (HEOB) includes:

NWS AA, Dr. John L. Hayes (Co-Chair)

OAR AA, Dr. Richard Spinrad (Co-Chair)

NESDIS AA, Ms. Mary Kicza

NOS AA, Mr. John H. Dunnigan

NMFS Senior Designee, Ms. Bonnie Ponwith

PPI AA, Dr. Paul Doremus (Acting)

NMAO, Director or Designee (TBD)

Director, NHC/NWS, Dr. Edward Rappaport (Acting)

Director, AOML/OAR, Dr. Robert Atlas

Director, NCEP/NWS, Dr. Louis Uccellini

Director, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Mr. Sam Williamson

Page 13: Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

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HFIP TeamHFIP TeamDr. Frank Marks and Dr. Ahsha Tribble were selected as the Project Lead and Deputy Project Lead, respectively. They formed a project team including:

Program Manager, Environmental Modeling Program: Mr. Fred Toepfer

Program Designee, Local Forecasts and Warnings: Mr. Scott Kiser

Program Manager, Science and Technology Infusion or designee: Dr. Chris Fairall

NESDIS Representative: Dr. Mark DeMaria

Hurricane Program Director, Aircraft Operations Center: Dr. Jim McFadden

Program Manager, NMAO Aircraft Services: RADM Phil Kenul

HWRF Program Manager and EMC Hurricane Lead: Dr. Naomi Surgi

OFCM/JAG/TCR representative: Mr. Mark Welshinger

ELDP Candidate (NWS): Mr. Mark McInerney

Executive Secretariat: NWS/Dr. Daniel MeléndezOAR/Mr. Roger Pierce

Page 14: Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Modeling and Data Assimilation

Observing Strategies and Observations

T2O

Critical mass

Scope of HFIP

NSB

EcosystemImpacts

Preparedness and Response

UncertaintyRainfall and Inland

Flooding

Climate Interactions

Hurricane Modification

Impacts on Engineered Structures

Socio-EconomicImpacts

HIRWG OFCM

ForecastingOperational Needs

StormSurge

HFIP

62nd IHC62nd IHC14

Basic Process

Research

Page 15: Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

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Significance of Rapid Intensity Change

Rapid intensity (RI) change (≥30 kt in 24 hours) has a significant impact on preparedness and evacuation actions for emergency managers

• Greatest forecast challenge for hurricane forecasters

• Not handled well by current operational models

• High priority in HIRWG report and the Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT)

• 83% of major hurricanes have at least 1 RI event

– Major hurricanes are responsible for 80% of all hurricane damage

• Linked to changes in storm structure and storm surge

Research and operational efforts necessary to improve forecasts of rapid intensity change will also improve intensity and track forecasts.

Page 16: Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

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HFIP Performance Metrics

I. Reduce average track error at Days 1 – 5

II. Reduce average intensity error at Days 1 – 5

III. Increase probability of detection (POD) for rapid intensity change for Days 1 – 5

IV. Decrease false alarm ratio (FAR) for rapid intensity change for Days 1 – 5

V. Quantify and reduce the uncertainty in the forecast guidance

Page 17: Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

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Short Term Actions: Priorities and PayoffsShort Term Actions:

Priorities and Payoffs

High Resolution Model and Other Model Enhancements• Technical staff with modeling and software

engineering expertise• R&D for HFS/GFS to demonstrate, using DOE HPC

system, high resolution and ensemble prediction capability and address data assimilation challenges

• HFS/HWRF R&D and upgrades sustained• Storm Surge Testbed

Enhance HPC Capability• NOAA R&D computing to support HFS/GFS

development including software engineering

Research to Operations (R20) Enhancements• Increase funding for the JHT (includes staffing)• Increase support for the Developmental Testbed

Center (DTC) and Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JSCDA)

• Targeted field programs and operational flights

Broaden expertise and expand interaction with external community

• Establish a visiting scientist/Post Doc program • Advisory committees, community workshops • Permanent HFIP Staff and infrastructure

PAYOFFS:

• Staffing and computing infrastructure established to evaluate potential model improvements

• Targeted high resolution and ensemble model research and development funded

• Demonstration completed on the impact of forecast performance using the high resolution model system on DOE system– decision point for NOAA HPC investment

• Upgrades to HFS/HWRF implemented operationally, and HFS/HWRF on a path to 4km resolution

• Storm surge testbed established

• Staff and infrastructure established for enhanced transition of research to operations

• Broaden community expertise through visiting scientists

• Involvement with external community for modeling R&D and development of forecast tools through JHT, DTC, and JCSDA