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© Copyright 2011 Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the written permission of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this report may be compiled from third party sources; however, we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such. This report is for general guidance only, is not intended to be relied upon, and any action based on or in connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice. The views expressed in this report are not necessarily those of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc., or any of its/their parent or sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates (hereinafter “Willis“). Willis accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use.

Hazard and damage potential maps produced by Willis are based on numerical modeling results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation.

Hurricane IreneInformation from NHC Advisory 24A, 8:00 AM EDT Friday August 26, 2011

Hurricane Irene is currently a category 2 hurricane, with re-intensification possible as it reaches the North Carolina coast.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading Landfall Forecast (NHC)

Max Sustained Wind Speed:

110 mph (category 2)

Position Relative to Land:

375 miles SSW of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina Est. Time & Region: Coast of North Carolina on

SaturdayMin Central Pressure: 945 mb Coordinates: 30.0 N, 77.3 W

Hurricane ForceWinds (74+ mph):

90 miles from the center Bearing/Speed: N or 360 degrees at 14 mph Est. Max Sustained Wind

Speed: 115 mph (category 3)

HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY

eVENT™

Forecast Summary• Within 36 hours, there is a 97% chance Irene will remain at hurricane strength (74+ mph winds), a 3% chance Irene will weaken to a tropical

storm (39-73 mph winds) and a less than 1% chance Irene will weaken to a tropical depression (winds below 39 mph) or dissipate. • The windfield map – based on the NHC 00:00 UTC forecast (below right) – shows that this model has forecast the storm’s peak winds at

category 2 hurricane strength (96–110 mph winds). The HRWF – one of many models used by NOAA – has been statistically identified as the current “best performing” model for Hurricane Irene by Kinetic Analysis Corp.

• Winds will subside over the northwestern Bahamas this morning. Tropical storm force winds are expected within the southern portion of the warning area along the United States east coast by late today, with hurricane force winds expected tonight or early Saturday spreading northward in the warning area through Saturday night. Irene is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6-12 inches over the northwestern Bahamas. Storm total rainfall amounts of 6-10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected over portions of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states along Irene’s path.

• A storm surge will raise water levels 6-11 feet above ground level in the hurricane warning area in North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds; a storm surge of 4-8 feet is expected over southern portions on the Chesapeake Bay, and 3-6 feet along the Jersey Shore.

Forecast Track for Hurricane Irene(National Hurricane Center)

Forecast Windfield & Rain Footprint for Hurricane Irene(Based on HRWF as of 00:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp.

Washington D.C.

Hamilton

ChicagoChicago

New YorkNew YorkPhiladelphiaPhiladelphia

MilwaukeeMilwaukee

ClevelandCleveland

CincinnatiCincinnati

PittsburghPittsburgh

Boston

ColumbusIndianapolis

Jacksonville

Atlanta

Charlotte

Nashville

Lake ErieLake Erie

Lake MichiganLake Michigan Lake OntarioLake OntarioLake HuronLake Huron

Lake St. ClaireLake St. Claire

OO hh ii oo

Chicago

New York

Philadelphia

08-28

08-27

08-26

Erie

Macon

Flint

Akron

Mobile

Lowell

Dayton

Durham

Orlando

Windsor

Norfolk

SavannahColumbus

SyracuseRochester

Ann Arbor

Arlington

Knoxville

Clearwater

Manchester

Alexandria

Portsmouth Chesapeake

Evansville

HuntsvilleChattanooga

St. Petersburg

FL

ALGA

PA

IN

NC

VA

NY

OH

MI

TN

SC

WV

ONNS

MA

NJ

CT

NHVTME

MDDE

RI

0 500 1,000250 Miles

HWRF FcstTrackNHC FcstTrackweak TSstrong TSCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5All Fcst Tracks

below 1 in1 - 3 in3 - 6 in6 - 9 in9 - 12 in12 - 24 in

Ï!D TD

Ï!S TS

Ï!1 Cat1

Ï!2 Cat2

Ï!3 Cat3

Ï!4 Cat4

Ï!5 Cat5

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Roy Cloutier7760 France Avenue SouthMinneapolis, MN 55435roy.cloutier@willis.com+1 (952) 841-6652

Contact us

Brian Owens51 Lime Street London EC3M 7DQbrian.owens@willis.com+44 (0)20 3124 7637

Warnings, Watches and New Tropical Cyclone PotentialA hurricane warning – meaning that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours - is in effect for the Grand Bahama and Abaco Islands and Little River Inlet, NC northward to Sandy Hook, NJ including the Pamlico, Albemarle, and Currituck sounds, and the Delaware and Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A tropical storm warning– meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible within the warning area within 36 hours – is in effect for Edisto Beach, SC northward to Little River Inlet and the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward and the Tidal Potomac. A hurricane watch – meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the warning area within 48 hours -is in effect for north of Sandy Hook, NJ to the mouth of the Merrimack River, MA including New York City, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Block Island, Boston, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.

Wind Damage PotentialThe map to the right illustrates the probability of wind damage exceeding 2% of a single family home’s building value. The map shows there is a very broad area forecast to experience winds capable of producing roof and other damages that could exceed 2% of a home’s building value. However, it does not depict that there will be significant variation in damage over the extent of the hurricane’s footprint, based on variation in the type of construction, local variability in the winds, and other factors.

Damage estimates have been calculated from an ensemble of possible landfall scenarios (initialized at 00:00 UTC) for Hurricane Irene, using a representative single family home damage function.

Probability of Wind Damage to a Single Family Home Exceeding 2%

Washington D.C.

New YorkNew York

PhiladelphiaPhiladelphiaBrooklynBrooklyn

ClevelandCleveland

PittsburghPittsburgh

Newark

Norfolk

CharlotteRaleighRaleigh

HartfordHartford

RichmondRichmond

ProvidenceProvidence

ColumbiaColumbia

HarrisburgHarrisburg

CharlestonCharleston

VirginiaVirginia

OhioOhio PennsylvaniaPennsylvania

North CarolinaNorth Carolina

South CarolinaSouth Carolina

West VirginiaWest Virginia

GeorgiaGeorgia

MarylandMaryland New JerseyNew Jersey

ConnecticutConnecticut

KentuckyKentucky

TennesseeTennessee

OhioOhio

Probability of DamageExceeding 2% of Value

Less than 10%10 - 20%20 - 30%30 - 40%40 - 50%50 - 60%60 - 70%70 - 80%80 - 90%Over 90%

0 250 500125 Miles

Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date

Tropical Storm Activity to DateIrene is the ninth named storm and first hurricane of the

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Five named storms and two

hurricanes, Alex and Danielle, had occurred by this date last

year. The next tropical storm of 2011 will be named Jose.

For the years 1995-2010, the average dates of the first

named storm, first hurricane and first major hurricane are

Jul 1, Aug 6 and Aug 30, respectively. Aug 25 and Sep 15 are

the average dates of the fifth and ninth named storms.

Benchmarking the 2011 Atlantic Season to DateTropical Storms

AllHurricanes

Cat 3-5 Hurricanes

2011 year to date (1/1/11 – 8/26/11) 9 1 12010 year to date (1/1/10 – 8/26/11) 5 2 01995-2010 season average 14.4 7.9 3.81950-2010 season average 10.5 6.2 2.72011 CSU season forecasts(Colorado State University at Aug 3)

16 9 5

2011 NOAA season forecasts(NOAAs Climate Prediction Center at Aug 4)

14-19 7-10 3-5

Risk Remaining in the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane SeasonAtlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity

(categories 3-5) both peak in September, as the graph to the

right illustrates. The average remaining percentage of days

with Atlantic hurricane activity at August 26 is 79% for all

hurricanes and 81% for major hurricanes.

Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900

0%

12%

24%

36%

48%

60%

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Ave

rage

Dai

ly R

isk

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ave

rage

Rem

aini

ng R

isk

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)