hurricanes - ghbahurricane charlie august 2004 6.609 million aug 2003- july 2004 7.027 million +6.3%...
TRANSCRIPT
Hurricanes
Immediate Impact • Loss of Jobs • Declining Home Sales
6-12 Months Later • Strong Job
Growth • Rising Home Sales
Disaster Economic Impact
400
450
500
550
600
650
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
New Orleans MSA Employment
Thousands – Seasonally Adjusted
Hurricane Katrina
35
38
40
43
45
48
50
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
Punta Gorda MSA Employment
Thousands – Seasonally Adjusted
Hurricane Charlie
SW Florida Job Growth Rates
0.00%
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Recession U.S. Punta Gorda
Recession Hurricane
Charlie
Percent Change Year-Over-Year
Seasonally-Adjusted
Cape Coral-Ft Myers MSA Home Sales
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,600
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
Closings Per Months Hurricane Charlie August 2004
12,281 Aug 2003- July 2004
13,646 +11.1% Sep 2004- Aug 2005
+11.1%
U.S. Existing Home Sales
0
200
400
600
800
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06
Closings Per Months Thousands
Hurricane Charlie August 2004
6.609 Million Aug 2003- July 2004
7.027 Million +6.3% Sep 2004- Aug 2005
+6.3%
220,000
1st
Time
Applicants
Unemployment
Benefits
Week Ending
January 13
2018
1.89
Million
Total People
on
Unemployment
Benefits
Week Ending
October 14
2017
90% of workers should
see an increase when new guidelines are
implemented
January 16, 2018
13.6%
Percent of
U.S.
Population
Aged 25-34
30% Percent of
Homebuyers
Prior Year
Aged 25-34
130,000+ Millennial Poll
Would You Rather? 47% Have an Easy Job Working for Someone Else 53% Work for Yourself But Work Incredibly Hard
9GAG + GfK Research
130,000+ Millennial Poll
Would You Rather? 29% Commit to a Guaranteed Job for Next 3 Years 71% Commit to a Start-Up Opportunity
9GAG + GfK Research
130,000+ Millennial Poll
Would You Rather? 95% Gain 10 Friends in Real Life 5% Gain 10,000 Friends on Instagram-Twitter
9GAG + GfK Research
130,000+ Millennial Poll
Would You Rather? 33% Lose the Right to Vote 67% Lose the Right to Say Anything on Social Media
9GAG + GfK Research
130,000+ Millennial Poll
Would You Rather? 43% Give Up Sex 57% Give Up the Internet
9GAG + GfK Research
Atlanta Austin Boston Chicago Columbus Dallas Denver
Indianapolis Los Angeles Miami Montgomery County, Maryland
Nashville Newark New York City Northern Virginia Philadelphia Pittsburgh
Raleigh Toronto Washington, D.C.
Amazon’s 2nd Headquarters Finalists
Airports Concessions
Housing Mass Transit Office Space Population
Flooding
Amazon’s Want And
Needs List
Do-Not-Want
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA Jobs
Jobs (Thousands) Seasonally Adjusted
1.51 Percent Prior 12 Months 45,500 Net New Jobs in Past 12-Months
27,500 Jobs Lost in August-September
Loan Cap 750,000$
20 Percent Down 187,500$
Purchase Price 937,500$
2017 SFR Sales 69,464
$937,500+ 1,913
Percent Impacted 2.75%
Mortgage Interest Deduction Cap Impact - Houston
Houston MSA Home Sales & Median Prices Sales Trailing 12 Months
$175
$200
$225
$250
14 '15 '16 '17 '18
78,000
79,000
80,000
81,000
82,000
83,000
84,000
Median Price Homes Sales
Median Price $ Thousands Home Sales 12-Months
2.6%
Average
Number
Per
Month
Sales
Change
Y-O-Y
3.7% 12-Month
Moving
Average
Price
Increase
Y-O-Y
'16 to '17
Percent
Price Range 2014 2015 2016 2017 Change
$1 to $499,999 60,763 59,206 61,211 62,502 2.1%
$500,000 to $699,999 3,703 3,724 3,624 3,713 2.5%
$700,000 to $999,999 1,804 1,756 1,619 1,748 8.0%
$1 Million and Up 1,383 1,418 1,352 1,501 11.0%
Total 67,653 66,104 67,806 69,464 2.4%
Ft Bend-Galveston-Harris-Montgomery Counties
Single Family Sales
'16 to '17
Percent
Price Range 2014 2015 2016 2017 Change
$1 to $499,999 6,408 6,361 6,268 6,174 -1.5%
$500,000 to $699,999 279 257 211 256 21.3%
$700,000 to $999,999 71 61 63 63 0.0%
$1 Million and Up 20 13 12 13 8.3%
Total 6,778 6,692 6,554 6,506 -0.7%
Ft Bend-Galveston-Harris-Montgomery Counties
Townhouse-Condo Sales
Houston MSA Residential Building Permits
0
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
75,000
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
Single Family Multi
Number of Dwelling Units
42,673 Permits is the past 12 months, 45,500 Net New Jobs 1.07 New Jobs Per New Dwelling Unit – 1.25 to 1.5 is Normal
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume
$ Billions – Trailing 12 Months
Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
-6.7 Percent Year-Over-Year
$0.0
$2.5
$5.0
$7.5
$10.0
$12.5
$15.0
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
Houston Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume
$ Billions – Trailing 12 Months
Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
+46.0 Percent YOY
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume
$ Billions – Quarterly
Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
-12.7 Percent Q4 2017 vs Q4 2016
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
Houston Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume
$ Billions – Quarterly
Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
+29.0 Percent Q4 2017 vs Q4 2016
Days to Drill & Fracture
3 Years Ago -- 40 Days
Now – 19 Days
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,5004-
Jan-
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North American Drilling Rig Counts Number of Operating Rigs
DrTCJ