hydrological modeling for upper chao phraya basin using hec-hms undp/adapt asia-pacific first...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS
UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training WorkshopAssessing Costs and Benefits of Adaptation: Methods and Data
March 11-14, 2013
Dr. Dilip K. GautamRIMES, AIT Campus, Bangkok
![Page 2: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Hydrological ModelA model is a simplified representation of reality.
A mathematical model consists of series of equations defining the system we are dealing with. The function of model is to convert the given input into an output.
A hydrological model is the mathematical representation of the response of a catchment system to hydrologic events during the time period under consideration.
Hydrological phenomena are extremely complex, highly non-linear and highly variable in space and time.
A model is needed to predict the watershed runoff for the design and management of water resources utilization and flood control projects.
![Page 3: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Classification of Hydrological Models
![Page 4: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Hydrological Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment
Simulated flow peaks, volumes and hydrographs at the outlets of subbasins and the points of special interest such as reservoirs, weirs or other hydraulic structures
Simulated long flow sequences for water budget and drought analyses
Simulated extent of flooded areas for different precipitation events and various antecedent basin conditions
![Page 5: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Hydrologic processes that need to be captured by the model
Single-event precipitation-runoff transformation
Continuous precipitation-runoff transformation
Snow accumulation and meltInterception, infiltration, soil moisture
accountingEvapotranspirationRegulated reservoir operation
![Page 6: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
HEC-HMS• US Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering
Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System software
• Designed to simulate both single event and continuous rainfall-runoff process
• Simulates precipitation-runoff and routing processes, both natural and controlled
• HEC-HMS uses a separate model to represent each component of the runoff process including:runoff volume;direct runoff (overland flow and interflow);baseflow;channel routing.
![Page 7: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
HEC-HMS representation of watershed runoff
![Page 8: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Key Components of ModelRunoff Volume models: separate infiltration from
pervious surface, runoff from impervious surface, compute the direct runoff volume
Direct Runoff models: transform direct runoff volume from excess precipitation into fast component of flow
Base Flow models: compute slow subsurface drainage component
Routing models: compute flow attenuation and translation over channel
Reservoir models: flow regulation
![Page 9: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Data RequiredDigital Elevation Model (DEM), land use, soil
types and other physiographic dataPrecipitation, temperature dataEvaporation/evapotranspiration data Discharge, Water level and Rating curve dataChannel and reservoir hydraulic dataGenerated sequence of meteorological data
representing various scenarios of future climate
![Page 10: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Upper Chao Phraya Basin,
ThailandCatchment Area = 105553 sq. km.
![Page 11: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Dams and ReservoirsBhumibol dam in the Ping River (Storage 13462
MCM)Sirikit dam in the Nan River (Storage 9510
MCM)Kwae Noi dam in Kwae Noi River (Storage 766
MCM)Kiew Kor Mha dam in Wang River (Storage 171
MCM)Kiew Lom dam in Wang River (Storage 112
MCM)
![Page 12: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Data preparation using HEC-GeoHMSDelineate catchment and river networkObtain catchment characteristics data (area,
slope etc)Make Thiessen polygonObtain Thiessen weightsPrepare basin file
![Page 13: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Data preparation using HEC-DSSVueTime series data (rainfall, discharge etc.)Pair data (elevation-storage)
![Page 15: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Model SetupBasin modelMeteorological modelTime series dataPair dataControl specification
![Page 16: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Meteorologic modelPrecipitationEvapotranspirationSnowmelt : not applicable for upper Chao
Phraya
![Page 17: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Precipitation methodsGauge weights : selected for upper Chao
PhrayaInverse distanceGridded precipitationFrequency stormSCS stormSpecified HyetographStandard project storm
![Page 18: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Evapotranspiration methodsMonthly Average : selected for upper Chao
PhrayaPriestley-TaylorGridded Priestley-Taylor
![Page 19: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Snowmelt methodsGridded temperature indexTemperature index
![Page 20: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Control SpecificationsSimulation start date/timeSimulation end date/timeTime interval
![Page 21: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Model CalibrationFinding optimal parameter valuesMinimizing difference between
simulated flow and observed flowObjective functions
Peak weighted RMS errorPercent error peakPercent error volumeRMS log errorSum of absolute residualsSum of squared residualsTime weighted error
![Page 22: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Search AlgorithmsNelder MeadUnivariate Gradient
![Page 23: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
The Basin Model
![Page 24: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Simulated Hydrograph at Basin OutletR2 = 0.71 BIAS = 6.7 % NS = 0.71
![Page 25: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
ConclusionsSemi-distributed physically based
deterministic hydrological models are powerful tools for assessing climate change impact on water resources.
Continuous modeling approach could be taken to assess the impact on flow volume.
Care should be taken to interpret the results as there are lots of uncertainties in the model inputs, parameters and structure of the model. Uncertainties associated with climate models will also be carried over.
![Page 26: Hydrological Modeling for Upper Chao Phraya Basin Using HEC-HMS UNDP/ADAPT Asia-Pacific First Regional Training Workshop Assessing Costs and Benefits of](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649cfa5503460f949cb857/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Thank You !
Dr. Dilip K. Gautam, Senior Hydrologist, RIMESE-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.rimes.int