hyes04 analyst pres final - corporate · 2019. 6. 27. · csr final pool price (yem) half year pool...

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CSR Limited Results Presentation Half year ended 30 September 2004 9 November 2004 2 Highlights Significant improvement in earnings - net profit 1 up 29% Improved Sugar and Property profits Increased dividend with full franking Growth projects underway Interim dividend increased to 6 cents per share and franking lifted to 100% $200+ million of announced growth projects underway. Good progress on business improvement 1. Net profit excluding significant items

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Page 1: HYES04 analyst pres final - Corporate · 2019. 6. 27. · CSR Final Pool Price (YEM) Half year pool price assumption NY11 Average US cents per lb CCS% of Sugarcane Raw Sugar Production

1

CSR LimitedResultsPresentation

Half year ended30 September 2004

9 November 2004

2

Highlights

Significant improvement in earnings - net profit1 up 29%

Improved Sugar and Property profits

Increased dividend with full franking

Growth projects underway

Interim dividend increased to 6 cents per share and franking lifted to 100%

$200+ million of announced growth projects underway. Good progress on business improvement

1. Net profit excluding significant items

Page 2: HYES04 analyst pres final - Corporate · 2019. 6. 27. · CSR Final Pool Price (YEM) Half year pool price assumption NY11 Average US cents per lb CCS% of Sugarcane Raw Sugar Production

2

3

3210.614.0Earnings per share (cents) 1

14.9%16.7%EBIT/trading revenue

(9)(10)Net finance expense

(42)(47)Tax expense

(14)(15)Outside equity interest

20.5%

129

200

255

1,199

2004

20.0%Return on funds employed 2

16219EBITDA

100

165

1,111

2003

29Net profit 1

21EBIT

8($ million unless stated)

Trading revenue

% Change

Half year ended 30 September

Strong improvement in profits

1 Excluding significant items2 Based on past 12 months EBIT divided by funds employed as at 30 September

4

78Total significant items after tax

(36)Write-off of legal costs

48Tax consolidation

Breakdown of significant items

21Settlement with Alcan

4Write-back of settlement provisions

41

207

78

129

2004

––Significant items

100

100

2003

Settlement with Lloyds

107Net profit after significant items

29($ million unless stated)

Net profit before significant items

% Change

Half year ended 30 September

Review of significant items

Page 3: HYES04 analyst pres final - Corporate · 2019. 6. 27. · CSR Final Pool Price (YEM) Half year pool price assumption NY11 Average US cents per lb CCS% of Sugarcane Raw Sugar Production

3

5

2.517.7Property

(9.8)(9.2)Corporate costs 2

-72.872.9Aluminium

$m EBITHalf year ended 30 September

165.0

(8.4)

173.4

48.7

59.2

2003

21200.4Total EBIT

(16.2)Restructure and provisions 325216.6Subtotal

5675.9Sugar 1

-59.3Building Products

% Change2004

1. Assumes raw sugar price of A$250 per tonne for HYES04 and HYES032. Underlying corporate costs were reduced by $2.5 million in HYES04 partially offset by higher

accruals for incentive payments3. Includes product liability provision and superannuation top-up payment. HYES03 included the

benefit of provision write-backs

Improvement in Sugar and Property results

6

0.7–Accounting changes

(10.0)(14.0)Product liability

(6.5)(1.7)Superannuation top-up

(2.7)(3.9)Incentives

$m EBITHalf year ended 30 September

(8.4)

1.3

6.8

(9.8)

(7.8)

2003

(16.2)Total restructure and provisions

(0.5)Other

–Provision write-backs

(9.2)Total corporate costs

(5.3)Corporate costs

2004

Breakdown of corporate costs and provisions

Page 4: HYES04 analyst pres final - Corporate · 2019. 6. 27. · CSR Final Pool Price (YEM) Half year pool price assumption NY11 Average US cents per lb CCS% of Sugarcane Raw Sugar Production

4

7

Sugar and Property increasing EBIT contribution

Building Products

26%

Aluminium32%

Raw Sugar28%

Refined Sugar/Ethanol

6%

Property8%

HYES04 business segment EBIT - $226 million

8

Improved returns and margins

16.318.1

16.5

20.0 20.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

%

19.019.217.7 18.6

19.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

%Return on funds employed EBITDA Margin

Note: Pro-forma financials for 2000-2002 based on demerger explanatory booklet dated 7 February 20031 Based on previous 12 months

1

1

Page 5: HYES04 analyst pres final - Corporate · 2019. 6. 27. · CSR Final Pool Price (YEM) Half year pool price assumption NY11 Average US cents per lb CCS% of Sugarcane Raw Sugar Production

5

9

Significant capex planned for full year to March 2005

25

7019

60

14

101

63

63

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

HYES04 YEM05

$ m

illio

nsq Most capex in

first half was for development

q $224 million of development capital planned for the full year

q Full year operating capex expected to be about 75% of depreciation

Capital expenditure

$121m

$294m

Pioneer mill renewable energy project

Development capital expenditure

(inc Building Products, Aluminium and Property)

Acquisition of additional 25% refined sugar stake

Operating capital expenditure

10

Strong financial position to fund growth and capital management

Key Facts

Net debt: $141.5 m

Net debt: 9.7%Equity plus net debt

Net debt: Equity 10.8%

Funds employed $1,452 m

NTA / Share $1.30

q Strong cash flow reduced net debt by $22.6 million to $141.5 million after funding capex and dividends

q Gearing expected to double by March 2005 as funds are allocated for announced capital projects

q Capital management options remain under review

q No progress yet on 5% share buyback

q Continue to review other options. Will support any initiative which clearly adds shareholder value

Page 6: HYES04 analyst pres final - Corporate · 2019. 6. 27. · CSR Final Pool Price (YEM) Half year pool price assumption NY11 Average US cents per lb CCS% of Sugarcane Raw Sugar Production

6

11

59

-7

-57

-108

7

59

50

60

70

80

HYES03 Volume Price Inflation OIP Expensedimprovement

initiatives

Other HYES04

$ m

illio

n

18.7%18.3%ROFE (12 mths)

-5959EBIT

-18180EBITDA

6462490Trading revenue

%20032004$m HYES

Building Products – continued improvement in pricing and volumes

q Strong increase in prices with increased volumes despite softness in some markets

q Expensed improvement initiatives (Nanning commissioning, maintenance, marketing) should benefit future years

Movements in EBIT

12

Gyprock, Fibre

Cement41%

Other1%Insulation,

Hebel (inc Asia)21%

Roofing20%

Bricks and Pavers

17%

HYES04 Trading Revenue - $490 million

q Gyprock – improved performance due higher volumes in key high margin segments

q CSR Fibre Cement – volumes steady despite slowdown in some markets. Continued success with compressed sheet products

q Monier and Wunderlich Roofing –Prices increased with steady volumes. Rosehill production continuing with higher volumes with lower costs

q PGH Bricks & Pavers – good increase in pricing offset by volume reduction as NSW market softened

q Bradford Insulation – strong increase in profits with higher prices and volumes

• Asia – China performing well with Malaysia impacted by price competition

Revenue increased in most products

Page 7: HYES04 analyst pres final - Corporate · 2019. 6. 27. · CSR Final Pool Price (YEM) Half year pool price assumption NY11 Average US cents per lb CCS% of Sugarcane Raw Sugar Production

7

13

YEM05 YEM06 YEM07Overhead restructure

Strengthen factory, logistics & customer service

Operational improvement

Rosehill improvement

Bricks logistics & expansion projects

Insulation unitisation

Market growth

Insulation expansion

Leveraging systems

Improved procurement

Customer service (Quote to cash)

Overhead reduction in Building Products divisional and admin costs

OIP opportunities targeted in all businesses

Capital upgrade to deliver savings from YEM06

Oxley (Qld) and NZ upgrades

Insulation market expanding with new building code regulations and energy ratings

Project well advanced

Project well advanced

Three year plan to improve performance

Transport and warehouse savings to ramp-up over next two years

14

100

120

140

160

180

200

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Sta

rts

(000

's)

BIS Shrapnel View Underlying Demand Actual Commencements HIA View

Diverse views on housing market outlook

Forecast

Post-Olympics + GST impact

Page 8: HYES04 analyst pres final - Corporate · 2019. 6. 27. · CSR Final Pool Price (YEM) Half year pool price assumption NY11 Average US cents per lb CCS% of Sugarcane Raw Sugar Production

8

15

A&A growth rate is slowing while forecasts for commercial show continued growth

Alterations and Additions Value of Work Done / Commenced - Total Australia

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

YE

M94

YE

M95

YE

M96

YE

M97

YE

M98

YE

M99

YE

M00

YE

M01

YE

M02

YE

M03

YE

M04

YE

M05

YE

M06

YE

M07

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Value of Work Done / Commenced Real annual % change

Constant 2001/02 $m

Commercial Building Work Done - Australia

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

YE

M90

YE

M91

YE

M92

YE

M93

YE

M94

YE

M95

YE

M96

YE

M97

YE

M98

YE

M99

YE

M00

YE

M01

YE

M02

YE

M03

YE

M04

YE

M05

YE

M06

YE

M07

Constant 2001/02 $m

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Non-Residential Building Work Done Total Annual % Change

Source: Historical data from ABS with forecasts from BIS based on 2001 constant dollars

16

Insulation expansion in China continues

q Expansion continues with CSR enhancing its position as the largest insulation producer in Asia

q 6,000 tonne expansion of glasswool plant in Nanning completed in August

Ø Targeting high value export market for specified pipe insulation products

q 4,000 tonne expansion of rockwool plant in Dongguan to be completed by the end of November

Ø Increases capacity of plant to 24,000 tonnes

Ø Targeting high temperature insulation products for power stations, shipbuilding, factories etc.

q Reviewing additional opportunities for low cost insulation expansion in Asia

Page 9: HYES04 analyst pres final - Corporate · 2019. 6. 27. · CSR Final Pool Price (YEM) Half year pool price assumption NY11 Average US cents per lb CCS% of Sugarcane Raw Sugar Production

9

17

62.4%69.7%ROFE (12 mths)

-7373EBIT

48487EBITDA

8223240Trading Revenue

%20032004$m HYES

Hedge Book in US$ millions

105

6886

149

82

150

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

HYEM05 YEM06 Beyond

US$

mill

ions

Aluminium Currency

Average forward currency rate in US centsAverage forward aluminium price in US$ per tonne

Aluminium EBIT in line with last year

q Trading revenue up 8% to $240m as tonnage sold increased by 8.5% to 88,735 tonnes due to ramp-up of AP22 project

q EBIT was steady at $73m as the average realised selling price after hedging was A$2,706 – down 1%. Alumina and depreciation costs were also higher

0.6051,554

0.5601,518

0.5531,505

18

US$ aluminium price increased steadily during the last six months

q Aluminium output increasing with ramp-up of AP22 expansion project

0.5490.6490.712US$/A$ average rate

A$2,156

$1,400

81,782

2003

A$2,463

$1,353

79,940

2002

A$2,387

$1,701

88,735

2004

A$ price per tonne

LME US$ price per

tonne

GAF sales in tonnes

Half year ended Sept

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4-Jan

-93

29-Ju

l-94

21-Fe

b-96

17-Se

p-97

20-Apr-

99

22-N

ov-00

9-Jul-

02

17-Fe

b-04

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500US$/tonneA$/tonne

10 year aluminium price

HYEM05Hedged price

(as of 30 Sep 04)

A$2,711

Page 10: HYES04 analyst pres final - Corporate · 2019. 6. 27. · CSR Final Pool Price (YEM) Half year pool price assumption NY11 Average US cents per lb CCS% of Sugarcane Raw Sugar Production

10

19

9.6%8.8%ROFE (12 mths)

564976EBIT

416694EBITDA

11423468Trading Revenue

%20032004$m HYES

4.0 2.9

11.8 14.4

42.040.2

51.7

-2.2 -3.1

10.1

5.46.7

HYES02 HYES03 HYES04Ethanol Refined sugarRaw sugar Other

$59m

$49m

$76mEBIT by Business

q Crop increased with improved weather and farm productivity

q Raw sugar price assumed of $250 per tonne – well above earlier estimates

q Investing in the future of the sugar industry

q Refining result improved with better food and beverage demand

q Ethanol result down as domestic and export prices fell due to increased competition

Includes additional 25% stake in refining JVs

Improvement in sugar returns

Sugar grant payment

20

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

US

cen

ts p

er p

ou

nd

Sugar crop steadily improving

q Crop size increasing with better weather and productivity improvements

NY#11 Prompt Sugar Price

YEM01 YEM02 YEM03 YEM04 YEM05229

250

6.76

14.35%

1.45

2003

274

250

5.86

14.52%

1.43

2002

NA

250

7.37

14.23%

1.59

2004

CSR Final Pool Price

(YEM)

Half year pool price

assumption

NY11 Average US cents per

lb

CCS% of Sugarcane

Raw Sugar Production

(mt)

Half year ended Sept

Page 11: HYES04 analyst pres final - Corporate · 2019. 6. 27. · CSR Final Pool Price (YEM) Half year pool price assumption NY11 Average US cents per lb CCS% of Sugarcane Raw Sugar Production

11

21

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

Jan/04 Feb/04 Mar/04 Apr/04 Jun/04 Jul/04 Aug/04 Sep/04 Oct/04 Nov/04 Dec/04

Cen

ts p

er

lb

India’s 2003/04 crop in question

India’s 2003/04 crop in question

Wet weather in Brazil

Wet weather in Brazil

Indian Elections

Indian Elections

Brazil crop behind schedule

Brazil crop behind schedule

Russian Domestic Price Spike

Russian Domestic Price Spike

Funds liquidate October positions

Funds liquidate October positions

2005

Rising Ethanol demand in Brazil

Indian imports

Russian demand

Statistical deficit

Global risks

Fund position expands

2005

Rising Ethanol demand in Brazil

Indian imports

Russian demand

Statistical deficit

Global risks

Fund position expands

Short term oversupply and fund liquidation

Short term oversupply and fund liquidation

Factors influencing world sugar prices this year

22

q 63 megawatt renewable energy project at Pioneer remains on schedule for completion by June 2005

q Recent major review of original project status indicated the capital cost has increased to $140 million, up from original estimate of around $100 million

Ø Changes in scope of the project over the past 12 months

Ø Cost escalations which have affected many projects

q Revenue increases from more efficient turbines and improved REC prices should lift EBITDA by 10%

q Project will generate returns well above its cost of capital despite increased capital costs

q Plans being developed to extend to a year-round operation to further improve returns

Progress continues with renewable energy project

Page 12: HYES04 analyst pres final - Corporate · 2019. 6. 27. · CSR Final Pool Price (YEM) Half year pool price assumption NY11 Average US cents per lb CCS% of Sugarcane Raw Sugar Production

12

23

Property returns sustainable over long-term

YEM05 YEM06 YEM07 YEM08 YEM09 Beyond

Woodcroft

20 hectare residential development

Penrith Lakes

•5,000 residential lots

•CSR 20% interest

Erskine Park

100 hectare industrial development

Ongoing activities

•Enviroguard

•Other industrial properties

YEM10 YEM12YEM11 YEM13 YEM14

Handover of land to Mirvac completed 30 June 2004 triggering profit realisation. Home sales to begin in early 2005 with revenue upside to CSR

Ferntree Gully

75 residential lots

Development accelerated with sale of 17 hectares to Bluescope. Discussions with other parties continues

Land sales to begin in early 2005

Delays in gazettal likely to push start of returns to YEM07

24

Earnings upgrade to 20% above last yearBuilding Products

q Slowdown in recent approvals indicates housing starts to be down by at least 5% - partly offset by A&A and commercial growth

q Continue to expect result to be in line with YEM04 Aluminium

q Outlook improved with higher aluminium prices and a more favourableexchange rate than previously forecast. EBIT expected to be around 5% lower than previous year

Sugarq Full year sugar price expected in the $250 range. Result will also be

boosted by the full year benefit of refining acquisitionq Sugar EBIT expected to be more than double YEM04 result

Property

q EBIT contribution for YEM05 expected to be in $25-$30 million range

Overall – YEM05 EBIT result expected to be approximately 20% higher than last year