i ks consulting telco 2012
DESCRIPTION
Telecommunication Market of Ukraine 2009-2011TRANSCRIPT
Telecommunication Market in Ukraine in 2009-2011
Current State of Telecom in Ukraine
3
Total Telecom Revenues, USD, 2009-2015(forecast)
In 2011 Telecommunication revenues in Ukraine made up 3,8% of GDP.
5,56,1
4,9
6,4
4,85,2
5,7
01234567
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
volume,bn USD year-to-year growth rate,%
F O R E C A S T
+ 30% growth
4
Timeline. Telecommunication Events in Ukraine
Fixed Telephony
Mobile Telephony
Broadband
Television
Other segments (data transfer, satellite, etc)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sharp decline of dial-up
subscribers share
By 2015 Ukraine is expected to shift to 100% digital broadcasting
Growing of 3G networks
Growing of “smart” devices
Expect sharp downturn in DLD/ILD revenues in 2012-2015
IPTV and OTT growing
COGENT, RETN entered the data transfer market
Extensive growing of fiber
networks
Orbiting the first Ukraine geostationerysatellite “Lybid” is expected by2013-2014
Mobile penetration
reached 105%
Rise of xDSL subscribers In may 2010 Vympelcom merged
with Kyivstar to form VimpelComLtd., the largest telecom operator in
the CIS
Austria's EPIC bought Ukraine's
Ukrtelecom
Austria's EPIC bought Ukraine's
Ukrtelecom
MTS got license for CDMA-450
Decline of Long-distance/international long-
distance telephony subscribers Launch of Utel
brand by Ukrtelecom
Active growth of mobile internet traffic&revenue
Launch of mobWimax services
802.16e
Expect more companies get license for 3G (today under military) and LTE launch
Expect broadband penetration by 2015 to reach 50% of households
SigmaBleyzer fund started to purchase
local cable providers
SigmaBleyzer fund created Volia
Limited, largest cable provider
Satellite operators
expand business
5
Telecommunication revenues
01234567
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015FMobile Telephony Internet TV Other
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015FMobile Telephony Internet TV Other
Telecommunications revenues in absolute
numbers, split by segments,bn USD
Telecommunication Segments in shares, %
6
Average Monthly Bill per User
2009 2011
Internet45%
TV14%
Mobile 17%
Fixed Voice24%
Internet37%
TV20%
Fixed Voice23%
Mobile 20%
-3,2%
207 UAH = 26 USD 200 UAH = 25 USD
7
Telecommunication Revenue Shares by Companies, 2011
Other18%
MTS24%
Astelit8%
Kyivstar33%
Ukrtelecom17%
*Kyivstar is operator in mobilecommunications, mobile internet, fixed internet, fixed voice, data transfer, etc. In 2010 two Ukrainiantelecommunication operators —Kyivstar PJSC and Beeline-Ukraine(Ukrainian Radio Systems PJSC andGolden Telecom LLC) — went intounited Kyivstar, Ukrainian businessunit VimpelCom Ltd.
*MTS(previously UMC brand) isoperator in mobile communications,mobile internet, fixed voice, data transfer, etc. In 2007 – an operator ofmobile communication UMC, 100% subcompany JSC "MTS" (NYSE: MBT), officially announces of turninginto the new brand – MTS.
* Ukrtelecom JSC wasUkraine’s monopolistgovernment-ownedtelephone company, alsoactive in Internet service providing and mobilemarkets. In 2012 Austrianinvestment firm EPIC boughta 92.79 percent stake inUkraine's main fixed-lineoperator Ukrtelecom.
* Astelit (TM life:)) is operator in mobilecommunications, mobileinternet, and data transfer, etc. The company has beenin Ukrainian market since 24 January 2005. It is 44.96% owned by SCM Group and54.8% owned by TurkishGSM operator Turkcell.
Current State of Telecom Segments
9
Mobile Voice Communications: Saturation
Mobile voice market has reached saturation at this stage.
In case Ukrainian government finds a way to unlock third-generation UMTS frequencies (currently under military) and issue more licenses to the main market players, revenue growth rates in the mobile telephony segment could advance slightly.
Mobile subscribers and penetration, mn, 2005-2011
30,4
49,2
55,6 55,9 55,3 54,1 53,7
64,0%
117,6%
118,1%120,3%121,1%119,8%
105,1%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
10
Broadband Internet: Stable Growth of Private Subscribers
16% 18% 20%22% 25% 26% 28% 30% 31% 33%
1Q 2010 3Q 2010 1Q 2011 3Q 2011 1Q2012
Broadband penetration in households raises with 7 per cent points per year
24,8
15,413,0
9,3 8,56,4
2,10,2
Europe
The Americ
as
Ukraine CIS*
WorldAsia
& Pacific
Arab State
s
Africa
Fixed (wired)- broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants, 2011
11
ТОР 1052%
Other48%
FISED BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS «ТОР 10» - «Other» SCORE 52:48
Broadband Internet: Consolidation Process are Underway
Over 500 service
providers, over 1100
service operators
12
Fixed/Mobile Internet Trends
In 2011 Ukraine has entered list of top 10 countries with highest broadband speed (source –Pando Networks)
16th place of the world most developed FTTH networks (source FTTH Council Europe)
Consolidation process are being at the place on fixed broadband market
Tough Competition between operators
Unequal regional penetration of broadband services
FTTx is main technology (70% of new subscribers prefer FTTx)
Mobile broadband market (CDMA Rev A,B) is is growing slowly due to blocking third-generation frequencies (UMTS) and not issuing licenses to the main market players
MobWiMAX services are provided by two operators, still quite modest growth
13
Fixed-line Telephony
Decline of local and DLD/ILD revenues
Expect the decline of the number of telephone lines
11,512,1 12,5 12,4 12,3 12,1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Telephone lines, mln
14
TV: Still Majority of Free-to-air TV Consumers
Subscribers Breakdown of Ukraine’s TV market in terms of technology(including paid and free access), 2011
Free-to-air TV
45%
Cable TV
35%
Satellite TV
19,5%
IPTV 0,5%
15
TV: Digitalization Trend
Digitalization of TV. Total digitalization is expected to become in 2015
The role of revenue driver on the pay TV market of Ukraine has gradually been shifting to paid satellite access operators
In April, 2012 the National Council for TV and Radio Transmission of Ukraine has resolved the issue of blocking the IPTV licenses. Therefore 4 providers have received IPTV licenses
16
Ukraine Telecom Forecasts 2013-2015
Positive broadband growth tendency due to cities 50K+.
Wave of mergers and acquisitions of small regional broadband providers
Broadband ARPU expected to stop declining and rise gradually Internet providers will focus on solving two parallel tasks: extensive growth of the subscriber base and rolling out quality value-added service options.
Growth rates of the number of subscribers connected via GPRS/EDGE and via 3G mobile services
Growth of set top box market, complementary to TV revenues growth and digitalization goals
Virtualization of IT resources, development of cloud technologies
Dynamic growth of Ukrainian internet entrepreneurship, rising of startup projects (e-commerce revenue rise 80% in year-on-year terms, etc)
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