i predict that a “perfect approachingpeople.vetmed.wsu.edu/jmgay/courses/documents/agse... · 19%...
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Livestock Productionand the Perfect Storm
Surprises in Store?
John Gay, DVM PhD DACVPMAssociate Professor of Epidemiology
AAHP Field Disease Investigation UnitWashington State University
Ag Animal Morning Seminar
I predict that a “perfect storm” approaching livestock production will drive big changes
And I may well be sawing my limb off
Warning:My "Crystal" Ball is a
Brunswick
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The big factors driving change that will surprise livestock agriculture are:• Declining social perception of livestock agriculture
• Economic globalization raising social economic status
• Emerging infectious agents – Virus, Bacteria, Parasites
• Genetic diversity threats ‐ Invasive, Extinction
• Increasing global climate variability and change
• Increasing regional fresh water scarcity
• Increasing petroleum scarcity and declining EROEI
• Regional human population expansion
• Regional soil depletion and salinization
These interrelate in complex waysSolutions to one problem often increase another3
Tipping Point
Flexible Responsive Lower costs
Rigid Bureaucratic Higher costs
Social License
Aligned:
•Values
• Expectations
• Ethics
Self regulation
Social Control
• Gov. Regulation
• Legislation
• Litigation
• AuditingSingle major event or
impacts of cumulative events
Charlie Arnot ‐ The social license vs. control balance“Science tells us if we can do something
Society tells us if we should do it”
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Center for Food Integrity Why Science Isn’t Enough ‐What consumers need to trust animal agriculture (2012)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2IqPmO5aHk2014 Consumer Trust Research: Cracking the Code on Food Issues
http://www.fccouncil.com/files/CFI2014%20Research%20Book.pdf
Cigarette!
Emotional perceptiontrumpsrational science
every time
Which are the jackhammers and which are the cigarettes?
Public (consumer) understanding is neither straightforward nor necessarily rational!
http://www.snopes.com/photos/signs/pregnant.asp5
Who is the public to trust on emerging social issues involving livestock agriculture?
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Vaclav Smilhttp://www.philiplymbery.com/farmageddon-facts/http://www.vaclavsmil.com/
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Exploiting our biases and our outrage addiction is the most profitable media industry
JM Berry & S Sobieraj, 2014
For 10 weeks in 2009 coded:
• 10 top‐rated cable news shows
• 10 top‐rated talk radio shows
• 20 widely read political blogs
Found:
• 100% of cable news and 90% of talk rad shows contained outrage
• 80% of blog entries were categorized as outrage
• Outrage heard every other minute on Fox and MSNBC
http://ase.tufts.edu/polsci/prospective/OutrageIndustry.pdf
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“Framing” is repeatedly using the most positive or negative label to “spin” a concept
Conservative – Frank LuntzLiberal – George Lakoff
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Evaluate yourself for IOED – the “Illusion of Explanatory Depth”
• Spend 10 minutes explaining the key concepts & relationships to someone and note the gaps
• Take 30 minutes to map out what you know and what you don’t on a sheet of paper
• Ask “5 Whys” for root cause
Don’t fall victim to the Dunning‐Kruger Effect
How do you know you have an informed opinion?
9http://www.pinterest.com/pin/366550857142554626/
“I never allow myself to have an opinion on anything that I don’t know the other side’s argument better than they do.” —Charlie Munger (Buffett partner)
Gaining perspective is most important
TerrestrialBiosphere
This biomantleproduces our food!
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Practical terrestrial biosphere (zone of life) thickness = 0.0005 of earth’s radius
View from Space Shuttle at altitude of 250 miles
Apple skinTrinket gold film
Humans perceive things best in our scales of size, distance, mass, and time
• Human scale
– http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_scale
• We use technology to extend our perception to the telescopic, microscopic, in distance, and in time– Powers of Ten ‐ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fKBhvDjuy0
• Our perception is easily deceived, particularly in un‐natural scales
– Illusion ‐ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusion
• Comprehension is difficult for us in un‐natural scales
– Geologic time scale ‐http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_time_scale
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Look up; airliners fly at the upper biosphere boundary
Upper biosphere boundary~ 4 – 10 miles uphorizontally the length of Pullman‐Moscow highway!
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Jetstream altitude is 23,000 to 52,000 feet
Jetstream from Space Shuttle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xF27e59QU44
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Do Livestock contribute to global warming?
http://m.beefmagazine.com/cow-calf/15-best-winter-ranch-photos
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Are you out of your mind? DamIfIKnow
(but Probably)
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Are humans contributing to global warming?
Life dramatically affected earth history and geology
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Stage 1 (3.8–2.4 Ga)
No atmospheric O2
Great Oxygenation
Event
~2,500 new minerals (55%) appeared
Biogeochemistry
Billion years
Cyanobacteria began
photosynthesis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Oxygenation_Event
Present
We are dealing with very complex systems interacting across wide scales including time
Sulfur CyclesWE Schlesinger, ES Bernhardt, 2013
16 http://faculty.yc.edu/ycfaculty/ags105/week12/biogeochemical_cycles_information/
The surface temperature key is the atmospheric energy balance, Wm‐2 in = out
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http://climateprediction.net/content/basic-climate-science
Atmospheric CO2 level is the primary focus of concern and for mitigation
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Keeling Curve
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keeling_Curve
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Atmospheric components block outbound long wave radiation
19 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas
Sunlight Energy
In
Infrared Energy
Out
Livestock associated
The CO2 change contribution is physically small
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1750 – 2005 change in radiation forcing
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing
Equivalent to a small flashlight bulb per square
meter!
T
Agriculture developed during a period of unusual climate stability
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoclimatology21
Historical Earth Temperature
Agriculture began in ~7 places around
world 7-10 K yrs ago
Two components:Mean & Variation
What might the return of “normal” instability do?
Present
Eastern Coal
Western Coal
World map adjusted for population
Nature 439, 800 (16 February 2006) http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/cartograms/
http://www.sasi.group.shef.ac.uk/worldmapper/index.html
19%1.4B #1
Feb 2015 - 7,223,648,678
17%1.3B #2
4%0.3B #3
4%0.2B #4
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population
http://www.census.gov/popclock/
3%0.2B #5
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47%
During your career, population will grow ~50%
World food production must increase by ~50%!
Where will that additional food come from?
U.S Census Bureau International Data Basehttp://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/
FAO Food Outlookhttp://www.fao.org/giews/english/fo/index.htm
1o Human Foodstuffs:1. Wheat ( 80%)2. Rice (100%)3. Coarse Grains ( 22%)
2015 ?
10 Billion?
7 Billion
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Plateau due to demographic
transition?
Livestock are concentrated in regions
http://www.fao.org/AG/againfo/resources/en/glw/Modelled_maps/cattle_modelled‐2005.jpg24
Global Cattle Density: Head / km2
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Domestic mammals far outweigh wild mammals
25 http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1338:_Land_Mammals
Cattle450MT
Horses 40MT
Sheep
Goats
Pigs100MT
Humans280MT
Data from Vaclav Smil’s The Earth’s Biosphere plus other sources
= 1,000,000 tons
http://xkcd.com/1338/
Elephants 0.8
All Wild Land
Vertebrates30MT
Whales80MT
Highest poultry densities are in the Pacific Rim
40% of global poultry production
Avian influenza H5N1 remains endemic here
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Human population growth rates are highest in LDC’s
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the‐world‐factbook/rankorder/2002rank.html
Rule of 72: Population doubles in ~72 / (% rate)Zimbabwe ~ 16 years, 3% ~ 24 years
Zimbabwe – 4.4%
1143
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Livestock producer education is poor in LDC’s
Education Level Number Percentage
• 90% have a primary school education or less
1. Can LDC producers understand the "how" and "why" of disease control or climate change mitigation sufficiently to optimize food production?
Indonesia Livestock Producers
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2. Can LDC government infrastructure compensate?
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Global arable (cultivatable) land is declining
http://www.earth‐policy.org/books/out/out_table_of_contents
Arable land:
• 1.5 billion hectares
• Takes 0.25 hectares to feed each person
• Maximum in early 1980’s, now declining
– erosion
– salinization
– desertification
– diversion
Google “Outgrowing the Earth” to read the on-line version
http://www.sare.org/Learning-Center/Books/Building-Soils-for-Better-Crops-3rd-Edition
Optimizing soil health is crucial to food production
http://soils.usda.gov/sqi/concepts/soil_biology/biology.html
Increasing and maintaining soil organic matter is key30
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We are currently using arable soil 20 to 100 times faster than natural processes produce it
Crop agriculture is not sustainable without re‐integrating livestock, particularly ruminants
David Montgomery
• Professor of Geomorphology, U Washington http://gis.ess.washington.edu/grg/
• 2008 MacArthur Fellow, $500,000 “genius” award
• Viewing soil as a biological rather than as a chemical system
The future of livestock agriculture is probably excellent but where and how we do it will change
Global water situation is tight in some areas
> 75% of flows allocated to agriculture, industry, domestic use
Unmet water needs due to lack of infrastructure (dams, piping)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/21_08_06_world_water_week.pdf32
Some high density populations have to “import water” as food
http://www.wri.org/resources/maps/water-stress-most-populous-river-basins33
> 80%
40 - 80%
20 - 40%
Ogallala‐High Plains Aquifer useful life is declining
http://www.kgs.ku.edu/HighPlains/maps/ofr2005_8_eul_400y_2000_2005.jpg
< 20 yrs
Fillingnow
Average Rainfall
33 inches
12 inches
Higher intensity wx events> More runoff, less recharge
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Climate change consequences are already documented in the Pacific Northwest
• More winter precipitation falling as rain instead of snow
• Increased winter streamflows
• Increased winter flood risks in transient (rain/snow mix) basins
• Reduced snow water storage, particularly in mid‐elevations
• Earlier snow melt and peak runoff (10 to 30 days)
• Decreased late spring and summer streamflows
The Result: The paradox of more winter flooding and more summer drought
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http://cses.washington.edu/cig/pnwc/pnwwater.shtml
Projected climate change yield impact varies
http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/uploads/climate_and_crop_yields_2.jpg
20% precipitation increase
20% precipitation decrease
no precipitation change
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US energy sources to uses
http://phys.org/news/2013-07-americans-renewable-energy-sources.html
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Vehicles use 71% of Crude Oil
Declining EROEI is biggest problem
http://www.eroei.com/articles/2005-articles/aspo-presentation/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_returned_on_energy_invested
EROI: definition, history and future implicationsCAS Hall and CJ Cleveland, 2005 ASPO-US Conference
US Energy Consumption (Quads)
1930
US Peak Oil
w/ CO2
scrubbing
“Low Hanging Fruit” at top
5:1
Ethanol
1:1
TarSands
Hydro
Wind
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ER
OE
I
What happens if and when they catch up due to rising SES?
Car ownership growth:• India ~14% per year
•2020 ~150M cars ( 41 per 1,000 now)• China ~ 8% per year
•2020 ~ 140M cars (101 per 1,000 now)• US ~ 258M cars now (809 per 1,000 now)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:PU200611_Fig1.png
World Oil Production2015
Peak Oil?Nano, India’s $2500 car
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capitahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil39
From my limb I predict that climate change will have the biggest impact on livestock through disease
Vector‐borne diseases will provide the nastiest surprises for livestock production
Global climate change
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Climate change will likely expand many vector‐borne disease ranges
Small climate changes can:
• Markedly shift ranges of tick species
– Ticks are vectors of nasty bovine disease agents
• Markedly alter mosquito populations and their range
• Reduce keystone species, destabilizing vulnerable ecosystems
– Allows proliferation of invasive species
However, due to the many factors involved vector‐borne disease ecology is very complex, making prediction difficult and uncertain!
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The dynamics of complex systems are difficult to comprehend without good models
Big factors driving change:
• Human Population Expansion
• Fresh Water Scarcity
• Soil Depletion
• Fossil Fuel Scarcity
• Globalization
• Emerging Infectious Agents
• Global Climate Change
• Genetic Diversity Decrease
• Social Perception
Tough positive and negative feedback loops with time lags link all factors and problem solutions
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Understanding these changes requires systems thinking rather than linear thinking
Careful critical systems thinking that:
• Is based on empirical scientific evidence
• Allows for the occurrence of unintended consequences
• Avoids the “silo effect”
• Avoids “framing”
• Detects “illusions of explanatory depth” (IOED)
• Includes all the relevant systems
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http://www.agroecology.org/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systems_thinking
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future"
Who said this?
Niels Bohr, Danish physicist
not
Lawrence Peter “Yogi” Berra
Always check your sources!
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Earthrise
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Apollo 8 - December 24, 1968http://www.c-span.org/video/?322340-6/private-space-travel