NORTH KIVU NEGOTIATIONS

I3004/9/2009

ALPHABET SOUP

DRC: Democratic Republic of the CongoFARDC: National Army of CongoMONUC: UN peacekeeping missionFDLR: Rwandan Hutu rebel group RCD: Congolese Tutsi group supported by

Rwanda during 2nd Congo WarCNDP: Militia formed by Laurent Nkunda out

of some remnants of RCDMai Mai: local (largely defensive) militias

BACKGROUND ON CONGO

Conflict in Congo began in 1994 following Rwandan genocide

1996-1997: [1st Congo War] Laurent Kabila (with assistance of Kagame and others) overthrew Mobutu and changed name of country from Zaire to DRC

1998: breakdown of relations between Rwanda and DRC;RCD emerged in Kivu

1998-2003: 2nd Congo War/Great War of Africa

2001: Assassination of Laurent Kabila

POST 2003 CONFLICT IN NORTH KIVU Following Sun City agreement, RCD was

to be integrated into National Army. Hardliners (largely Tutsi) refused; led by Nkunda. Feared they would lose political leverage.

FDLR remained active In 2006, Nkunda re-emerged as leader

of CNDP In 2007, mixage process broke down

EVENTS IN 2009

Joint Rwandan and Congolese military operations against the FDLR began in January

Laurent Nkunda has been arrested Rwanda has pulled out of eastern

Congo CNDP is a legal party

THE SCENARIO

It is May 12th 2009, North Kivu exists in a state of uneasy peace. FDLR forces still remain in the “bush” but observers have suggested that at least 6,000 of them have regrouped under the leadership of Murwanashyaka and that they are actively planning to retake their former headquarters of Kibua and Kalonge. Despite the indictment from the International Criminal Court, President Kabila has refused to arrest Bosco Ntaganda. The good news is that the mixage process has seemed to have gone fairly smoothly and the CNDP is currently recognized as a political party. Furthermore, it appears the Ntaganda has enjoyed his new position as a General in the National Army to gain control of some of the province’s gold, tin, and coltan mines. However, international observers are warning that should the FDLR insurgency reactivate, Ntaganda may defect from the agreement with the government. Finally, there has been very little resettlement of displaced persons; by some estimates nearly 1 million North Kivuns remain in refugee camps.

 As the current chairman of the African Union, Muammar al-Qaddafi has summoned the interested parties to Tripoli. All parties are guaranteed safe passage (Ntaganda will not be arrested). Qadaffi has openly stated that he hopes that the meeting will result in the “Tripoli Peace Accords” that will demonstrate the legitimacy of the African Union as an International body.

Today you should: define your goals for this negotiation, identify your BATNA, identify and evaluate the strategies available to you, and decide as a group on the proper course of action.

At 5, you will present your preferences regarding the details of the agreement. You are free to reveal your preferences in a strategic (as opposed to honest) way. You may choose to reveal your broader, underlying goals.

Keeping in mind: BATNA, Prisoner’s Dilemma, Principal-Agent Problem, Credible Commitments, Trustworthiness, Zero-Sum Game, Positional Bargaining, Monitoring, Stag-Hunt, Focal Point, The Tragedy of the Commons, Bureaucracy, Informational Asymmetry, Concessions, Bounded Awareness, Imperfect information, Sacred Values, Bargaining/Negotiating Power, “Fixed-Pie”