Development of Coastal-FEWS: Early Warning System tool development

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Simone De Kleermaeker Wiebke S. Jager Ap van Dongeren Tom Bogaard

Development of Coastal-FEWS: Early Warning System tool development

• Increasing coastal zone risks • Early Warning Systems and DSS • Delft-FEWS • EWS Storm Surge Dutch North Sea • Application – RISC KIT case study sites • Conclusions

Increasing coastal zone risks • Recent and historic low-frequency, high-impact events

demonstrated coastal risk (Xynthia, Europe, 2010; Katrina, USA, 2005)

• This is only to get worse, because risk (prob. hazard * consequences) is increasing due to (IPCC, 2014) 1. Increase in hazard intensity/frequency due to:

• increased winds, extremes in rainfall, sea level rise 2. Increase in consequences due to increased coastal

development

Risk reduction through adaptation

Adaptation requires a • re-evaluation of coastal disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies

and • a new mix of prevention (e.g. dike protection), mitigation (e.g. limiting construction in flood-prone areas) and preparedness (e.g. Early warning systems, EWS) measures.

RISC-KIT Project • EU – funded project • Demonstrate robustness and applicability of coastal EWS/DSS • Study sites on the coast of all EU regional seas • Generic Tools, achieve common functionality

Impact – oriented Early Warning and DSS

• a free-ware system to predict hazard intensities using coupled hydro-meteo and morphological models and

• a Bayesian-based Decision Support System (DSS) which integrates hazards and socio-economic and environmental consequences (expected impact)

• Basis for the model train is Delft-FEWS software

What is Delft-FEWS?

Data Hydraulic Models Forecasts & warnings

Observations and Meteo input

Wave, flow and morphological models

Visualization, output to DSS

Modular Toolbox

w ebedits

…

…

Delft3D

Sobek

Mike11

…sc

enar

io

archie

fperformance

interpolation

…

web

files

user

JDBC

statistics

….

files

…

Expo

rt

Import

Transformations

Gen.Adapter

• Delft-FEWS provides a generic functionality (modules) which can easily be configured and organized for specific applications (processing data, running models, …).

• Platform has been

expanded for coastal and flash flood applications.

• Coastal FEWS freeware has been made available via the project website.

EWS Storm Surge Dutch North Sea Wind & Pressure

Swan DCSMv6 North Sea

Model

Waqua DCSMv6 North

Sea Model

Swan DCSMv6 ZuNov4

Water levels

Hirlam Meteo Forecast

Levels & Spectra

Forecast

Waqua DCSMv6 ZuNov4

Model output + Expert Judgement

EWS Storm Surge Dutch North Sea

Application at 11 case study sites

• 10 Located on all EU regional seas ()

• One site in Bangladesh by WMO

• Diversity of geomorphic settings

Ria Formosa (Portugal)

FEWS

Delft3D model for gulf of

Cadiz

Water levels

Wave Spectra

SWAN model of Gulf of

Cadiz

SWAN model of Ancao Peninsula

Delft3D model for Ria

Formosa

XBEACH model for

Praia de Faro

Water levels

Just Tidal Constituents

Wave Spectra at boundaries

(LIANSS)

Wind/pressure fields (IPMA, MeteoGalicia)

Levels & Spectra

XBEACH output

Conclusions • EWS have successfully been set up for the case study sites • Model adapters have been developed to connect to Delft-

FEWS • Bayesian Network can be fed and accessed by Delft-FEWS • Resulting information integrated in the Delft-FEWS Platform • Coastal FEWS freeware has been made available via the

project website: http://www.risckit.eu/

Next steps • Application of the systems • Further establish the link between the Bayesian Network and

the EWS.