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Monday, March 25 2013

07:00AM - 08:00AMMorning Refreshments & Registration

08:00AM - 08:10AM

Welcome Address

08:10AM - 09:00AMDemand Driven Sales and Operations Planning in a Dynamic Industry

Ahmad ShamiehHead of Supply ChainNokia

This session will give you an Introduction to demand driven S&OP process in a dynamic industryincluding how to build a bottom up forecast that can be reliable and used for replenishment &supply planning.

You will learn:

Challenges of getting reliable forecast in a dynamic industry

Importance of customer collaboration

Best practices>Br?

09:05AM - 09:55AM

Leveraging Measures to Improve Demand Planning and Forecasting

Sandeep KarkeraDemand Planning Manager, Africa & Middle EastHeinz

The current interest in performance measurements has led to a variety of supporting adages orclichs in the industry including, Anything measured improves, What you measure is what you

get, You cant manage what you dont measure. Measurements support betterdecision makingwith metrics and KPIs, ensure supply continuity to support demand forecast and productrequirements and create a systems based management model for supply chain optimization. Joinus to learn how to quantify and show improvement throughout your demand planning and supplychain processes.

You Will Learn:

How to ensure supply continuity to support demand forecast and product requirement

How to assess the input and performance metrics used in the forecasting process


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How to add value through the implementation of supply chain analytics

10:00AM - 10:15AMMid-Morning Break | Visit with Exhibitors

10:15AM - 11:05AM

Lessons Learned through Implementation of Short Term Demand Planning to UtilizeUnpredicted Market Dynamics

Faslin Abdul KhaderDemand Planner, Supply ChainDanone Al Safi

Most companies preparing demand planning (M-1) monthly based on the sales history trends,seasonal and key initiatives. In the present competitive scenario, market demand is dynamic,especially in the dairy industry (very short shelf life, 7- 28 days) where small changes (even in theweather) in the market influence the demand. Weekly demand planning with daily demand splitalong with GPS. These weekly demand planning preparations are based on present marketdemand including current trends, competitors performance and the weather.

You Will Learn:

The importance of daily/weekly demand planning

How to build a safety stock and utilize unpredicted market opportunities

How to maximize customer service level with short term plan

11:05AM - 11:55AMManaging & Mitigating Risk in S&OP

Gregory L. SchlegelAdjunct Professor, Supply Chain Risk ManagementLehigh University

Supply chain disruptions have never been higher. And, the stakes have never been greater. Jointhis session to get a glimpse into the New Normal Supply Chain of Uncertainty, Complexity &Risk. Gain an understanding of how exemplars and early adopter companies are injecting risk intotheir S&OP processes and designing more resilient supply chains to manage uncertainty,complexity and risk.


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You will learn to:

The elements behind supply chain uncertainty, complexity & risk

The emerging basics of supply chain risk management (SCRM)

New techniques, tactics and tools to mitigate risk within the S&OP process

How early adopter companies are injecting risk into their S&OP processes & building resilientsupply chains

12:00PM - 01:00PMLunch

01:00 - 01:30PMBreak | Visit with Exhibitors

01:30 - 02:20PMConsumer/POS/ End User Data Based Forecasting & Planning

Canlas CesarCIODel Monte Foods

Arup ChatterjeeManaging PartnerInspirage

02:20 - 03:10PMLeveraging Measures to Improve Demand Planning and Forecasting

Shariq DaudiSenior Manager of Financial Planning & BudgetingEthiad Airways

Teddy MurphyManaging DirectorMiagen

Forecasting and planning can be a painstaking process within organizations. It is often a trade-offbetween quality and speed, yet good decision making is dependent on good planning. Thispresentation will demonstrate how with a well-structured driver based model you can decentralizethe planning process to those who are responsible for its delivery. You will also hear how globalorganizations like DHL have automated their rolling forecasts and evolved to spend more time on


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the business than on the process.

You will learn:

Key steps to structure a driver based planning model

How to implement decentralized planning within your organization

How to remove barriers to effective Forecasting and Planning

03:10 - 03:30PMMid-Afternoon Break

03:30 - 04:20PMThe Quest for Automatic Forecasting a 10 Year Case Study at Beiersdorf AG

Kalle RasmussensProject Manager - Demand PlanningBeiersdorf

Sven CroneDeputy DirectorLancaster Centre For Forecasting

With implementing SAP APO DP in 2002, Beiersdorf quickly realized that it could not reliably runforecasts automatically. Today, large parts of the assortment run fully automatic either usingstate-of-the art model selection routines, which mimic the expertise of a human demand planner inpicking the best exponential smoothing model, or even implementing new methods of artificialNeural Networks for forecasting in APO. This presentation takes you on a 10-year journey ofimproving forecasting accuracy at Beiersdorf, supported by the Lancaster Centre for Forecastingand the novel add-on software Intelligent Forecaster.

You will learn:

How to tune SAP APO DP for fully automatic baseline forecasting

How to enhance SAP APO DP with new forecasting methods tailored to your products andmarkets, like neural networks or ARIMA

04:25 - 05:15PMRound Robin Roundtable Discussion

Increase your networking opportunities at IBFs Dubai Conference by joining us at our verypopular Round Robin, Round-Table Discussion session. Take this opportunity to bring up themost challenging questions facing your team, share your own war stories from the field and hear


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and share best practices. Choose up to 3 of 5 timely and practical topics provided for yourprofessional enhancement. These sessions will add new dimensions to the services you provideyour customers, and increase your contact base in the demand planning & forecasting community.All experience levels are invited and welcome.

Round Robin Topics Include:

Creating a Reliable and Resilient S&OP Process The Career Track for Forecasting and Planning Professionals

Worst Practices in Forecasting & Planning

Leveraging Demand Signals such as POS to Improve Forecasting and Supply ChainPerformance

New Products: Successfully Forecasting the Success of Innovation

Tuesday, March 26 2013

08:30AM - 09:20AMHow to Effectively Deliver Bad News Such as Lower Forecasts

Salah ChatahPower Systems Planning Department

Saudi Aramco

This presentation sows how a forecaster can deliver the bad news effectively and without any

change of the forecasting results by choosing the right words and context of his/her speech. Theway words are spoken and the choice of words has a great impact on the context of the speechwithout changing the message behind it. This talk gives examples of utilizing the art speech todeliver bad news. Join us to learn how to illustrate the alternatives to present alternatives to a lowforecast by changing the plan. This will also reduce the impact of the negative news on themanagement by using an alternative and achieving better results.

You Will Learn:

How the choice of the words, and proper arrangement of the context of a phrase can deliverbad news with less negative impact

How a forecaster can present a positive message behind a lower forecast

How lower forecasts can be presented as lessons for taking action instead of negative news

09:30AM - 12:30PM1-Day Hands-On Statistical Forecasting & Planning Tutorial

Sven F. CroneDeputy DirectorLancaster Centre For Forecasting


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Forecasting is a key element of any supply chain or S&OP process. Getting the forecast right atleast gives you the opportunity to deliver real supply chain improvement. IBFs Full-Day Tutorialwill help you understand your forecasting process and software from the ground up. It will lead youthrough an understanding of common techniques found in your forecasting software and help youtake advantage of its untapped potential. If you dont have forecasting software, this tutorial willteach you what models and methods it should have and how to use them with MS-Excel. Youhave the option to bring your laptop to the event. Furthermore, we will discuss how to "cleanse"data and choose the right data for use with your models and systems. Greater forecastingperformance can be achieved through better data management, which you will learn at the IBFTutorial.

SECTION 1INTRODUCTION TO BUSINESS FORECASTING

Types of forecasting methodsa] Extrapolative (time series) methodsb] Explanatory (cause-and-effect) methodsc] Judgmental methods

Data Considerations (e.g., missing data, outliers, etc.)

SECTION 2INTRODUCTION TO TIME SERIES: SIMPLE AVERAGES, MOVINGAVERAGES AND EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHINGAmong all models, time series models are the ones that are used most in business

Level Change

Percentage Change

Weighted Average Percentage Change

Moving Averages

Sales Ratio

Exponential smoothing models

Classical Decomposition Model

Automatic model selection

12:30PM - 01:30PMLunch

01:30 - 04:30PM

1-Day Hands-On Statistical Forecasting & Planning Tutorial (cont.)

Sven F. CroneDeputy DirectorLancaster Centre For Forecasting


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SECTION 3REGRESSION MODELS FOR FORECASTING AND QUANTIFYING RELATIONSHIPS WITHPROMOTIONAL ACTIVITIES AND EVENTS

Regression is the basic tool for measuring the relationship between variables.It is often used where some understanding of the underlying reasons for the forecasted values isneeded.

Classical regression model

Simple regression

Multiple regression

Interpreting results

Regression coefficients

The R-squared statistic

"t" ratios and statistical significance

Multicollinearity

Serial correlation

Dummy variables

Seasonality Dynamic (lagged) term

SECTION 4MEASURING FORECASTING PERFORMANCEThe measurement of forecast accuracy is essential in any forecasting process.

Goodness of fit vs. forecast accuracy

Within-sample vs. out-of sample tests

Rolling out of sample evaluations

Three important statistical measures of forecast accuracy: MPE, MAPE, and WMAPE

Designing an out-of sample test

SECTION 5PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

Forecasting Best Practices Summary

Forecasting Processes

Data Collection & Analysis

Methods & Models

Software & Systems People

The 3-Cs..Collaboration, Communication & Commitment

The Seven Pearls of Forecasting

MS-EXCEL WILL BE USED FOR DEMONSTRATION/EXERCISES.

PLEASE BRING ALONG YOUR LAPTOP!

ibf-course forecasting.docx

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