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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation1

IBM Watson at Work

Chris HowardOffice of the CTO, IBM Software Group, Europe

© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation


Technology Drivers


Businesses on a Smarter Planet are “dying of thirst in an ocean of data”

1 in 2business leaders

don’t have access to

data they need

83%of CIOs cited BI and

analytics as part of their

visionary plan

5.4Xmore likely that top

performers use

business analytics

80%of the world’s

data today is

unstructured

90% of the world’s data

was created in the

last two years

20%is the amount of

available data

traditional systems

leverages

Source: GigaOM, Software Group, IBM Institute for Business Value"3


Traditional IT

•Structured data (local)

•Deterministic Applications

•Search Oriented

•Small Data

•Machine Language

Emerging IT

•Structured & unstructured (global)

•Probabilistic Applications

•Discovery Oriented

•Small and Big Data

•Natural Language

Today’s business challenges are causing organizations to

rethink what it will take to get ahead tomorrow


What if an enterprise had all the answers it needs to succeed?


Brief History of Watson

R&D

Demonstration

Commercialization

Cross-industry Applications

Research Project (2006 – )

Jeopardy!Grand

Challenge(Feb 2011)

Watson for

Healthcare(Aug 2011 –)

Watson Industry

Solutions(2012 – )

Watson for Financial

Services(Mar 2012 – )

Expansion


$200The juice of this

bog fruit is sometimes used to treat urinary tract

infections

$400A round type of

this structure, with the silo inside it,

was popular in the 1900s; it’s rare

now

$6001948: Johns

Hopkins scientists find that this antihistamine

alleviates motion sickness

$800This title character was the crusty &

tough city editor of the Los Angeles

Tribune

$1000Of the 4 countries

in the world that the U.S. does not have diplomatic relations with, the one that’s

farthest north

7

The Jeopardy! Challenge

Broad/Open Broad/Open

DomainDomain

Complex Complex

LanguageLanguage

High High

PrecisionPrecision

Accurate Accurate

ConfidenceConfidence

HighHigh

SpeedSpeed


So why is it so hard for computers to understand humans -

Language is implicit, contextual and imprecise

• Noses that run and feet that smell?

• Ship by truck and send cargo by ship?

• How can a slim chance and a fat chance be the same, while a wise man and a wise guy are opposites?

• How can a house burn up as it burns down?

• Why do we fill in a form by filling it out?

• How does an alarm go off by going on?


So why is it so hard for computers to understand humans - Structure

Where wasEinstein born?

Structured Data Unstructured Data

Welch ran this?

“One day, from among his city

views of Ulm, Otto chose a

watercolor to send to Albert

Einstein as a remembrance

of Einstein’s birthplace.”

“If leadership is an art then surely

Jack Welch has proved himself

a master painter during his

tenure at GE.”

Physicist Birth Place

A. Einstein Ulm

N. Bohr Copenhagen

M. Curie Warsaw

Person Organization

L. Gerstner IBM

J. Welch GE

W. Gates Microsoft


Answer & Confidence

Question

How Watson Works: parse request, generate hypotheses,

evaluate evidence, and respond with confidence

Analyze

question

Generate

hypotheses

Collect and

evaluate

evidence

Weigh and

combine for final

confidences

Balance& Combine

1000’s of Pieces of Evidence

Multiple Interpretations

100,000’s Scores from many Deep

Analysis Algorithms

100’s sources

100’s Possible Answers


Baseline 12/06

v0.1 12/07

v0.3 08/08

v0.5 05/09

v0.6 10/09

v0.8 11/10

v0.4 12/08

DeepQA: Incremental Progress in Answering Precision on the

Jeopardy Challenge: 6/2007-11/2010

v0.2 05/08

V0.7 04/10

Pre

cis

ion

(goa

l 85%

)

Watson

Playing in the Winners Cloud

Answered (goal 70%) 100%0%

0%

100%


99%

60%

10%

Understandsnatural language and human speech

Adapts and Learns from user selections and responses

Generates and evaluates

hypothesis for better outcomes

3

21

IBM Watson brings together a set of transformational

technologies to drive optimized outcomes


Big Data

Content Analytics

Business Analytics

Databases / Data Warehouses

2880 Processing Cores

15 Terabytes Memory (RAM) – 20TB Disk

90 IBM P750 Servers

80 Teraflops Computing Power =200m pages in 3 sec

Workload Optimized Systems

A look behind the scenes

13


Bringing Watson to market requires a Bringing Watson to market requires a Bringing Watson to market requires a Bringing Watson to market requires a significant engineering effortsignificant engineering effortsignificant engineering effortsignificant engineering effort

Watson at PlayWatson at PlayWatson at PlayWatson at Play Watson at WorkWatson at WorkWatson at WorkWatson at Work

1 User

1 Question

Max. input – 2 sentences

Stateless

Focus on Top Response

5+ Days Retrain

Supporting evidence not present

Text-only input

Q&A Environment

Basic security

1000s Concurrent Users

Compound questions

Extended text input

Statefull

Focus on top Responses

Dynamic content ingestion

Supporting evidence integral

Text, tables and images as input

Q&A + Case Mgmt.

Heightened security (e.g. HIPAA)

Moving beyond Jeopardy! presents a new set of challenges


Watson goes to work in Healthcare

OutcomesOutcomesOutcomesOutcomes…………

What if What if What if What if …………healthcare could leverage the latest

insights improving the quality of patient

care while lowering costs?

• Deep diagnosis and treatment assistance for

physicians

• Improved clinical outcomes based on confidence

based responses

• Extended data assessment based on research,

clinical, medical, market and patient data

• Applied learning based on action taken and

outcome derived


Sym

pto

ms

UTI

Diabetes

Influenza

Hypokalemia

Renal Failure

no abdominal painno back painno coughno diarrhea

(Thyroid Autoimmune)

Esophagitis

pravastatinAlendronate

levothyroxinehydroxychloroquine

Diagnosis Models

frequent UTI

cutaneous lupus

hyperlipidemiaosteoporosis

hypothyroidism

Sym

pto

ms

Fam

. His

tory

Pat. H

isto

ryM

ed

icatio

ns

Fin

din

gs Confidence

difficulty swallowing

dizziness

anorexia

fever dry mouththirst

frequent urination

Fa

mil

yH

isto

ry

Graves’ Disease

Oral cancerBladder cancerHemochromatosisPurpura

Pa

tie

nt

His

tory

Med

icati

on

sF

ind

ing

s

supine 120/80 mm HG

urine dipstick: leukocyte esterase

urine culture: E. Coli

heart rate: 88 bpm

SymptomsFamily History

Patient HistoryMedicationsFindings

Putting the proper pieces together at the point of impact can be

life changing


From battling humans on Jeopardy! to changing the way the world

thinks, acts, and operates

Addressing grand business and societal challenges

Contact Center

Healthcare Financial Services

Government

Diagnostic/treatment assistance,

evidenced-based insights,

collaborative medicine

Investment and retirement

planning, institutional trading

and decision support

Call center and tech support

services, enterprise knowledge

management, consumer insight

Public safety, improved

information sharing, security,

fraud and abuse prevention

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