1.ICES Advisory practice: shaping the boundary between science and policy Martin Pastoors 23 November 2009 FNP-21806 Policy for Natural Resource Management: Models and Trends

2. A sea full of life and activity 3. How to maintain sustainable fishing? 4. The role of ICESas a knowledge provider.... 5. ... and the boundary between science and policy Science Policy 6. ICES To advance the scientific capacity to give advice on human activities affecting, and affected by, marine ecosystems. 7. Advisory space 8. My ICES CV

Member of working groups

• Herring, north sea demersal (1997-2003)

Chair of North Sea demersal Group

• 2002-2004

Chair of Advisory Committee on Fishery Management (ACFM)

• 2006-2007

Vice-chair of Advisory Committee

• 2008

And now: out of it

9. Topics

Fisheries advice and policy landscape

The TAC machine

Introduction of precautionary approach

10. 1. Fisheries advisory and policy-landscape in Europe 11. Fisheries advisory / decision process 12. Disproportionate advisory capacity in the European Commission? 13. ICES 2005 annual input & output 14. cod science input and output 15. cod science quality assessment 16. ICES advice structure Working Group Review Group Advice drafting group Advisory Committee 17. Advisory Committee culture

Ownership of management problems: We

Highly committed

Translators of science

Textual arguments / negotiated advice

18. Example: textual arguments in North Sea Cod advice http://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/press_corner/pictures/north_sea_cod_en.jpg 19. Cod advice (2002)

Given the very low stock size, the recent poor recruitments, and continued high fishing mortality despite management efforts to promote stock recovery, ICES recommends aclosure of all fisheriesfor cod as a targeted species or by-catch...

20. Cod advice (2003)

Given the very low stock size, the recent poor recruitments and the continued substantial catch ...., ICES recommends theimplementation of a recovery planto ensure a safe and rapid rebuilding of SSB to levels above Bpa. ....

In accordance with such a recovery plan ICES recommends azero catchin 2004.

21. Cod advice (2004)

Given the low stock size, recent poor recruitment, continued substantial catch ..., the uncertainty in the assessment, and the inability to reliably forecast catch, ICES recommendszero catchuntil the estimate of SSB is above Blim or other strong evidence of rebuilding is observed.

22. Cod advice (2005)

Given the low stock size and recent poor recruitment, it is not possible to identifyany non-zero catchwhich will be compatible with thePrecautionary Approach.Rebuilding can only be achieved if fishing mortality is significantly reduced on a longer term.

23. Cod advice (2008)

Because the existing recovery plan is not considered to be in accordance with the precautionary approach, ICES continues to advise on exploitation boundaries in relation to precautionary limits, and recommends that the fisheries for codbe closeduntil an initial recovery of the cod SSB has been proven.

24. Conclusion on cod

Many textual permutations on the same message

Different strategies of dealing with science-policy interface.

25. Advisory report highly technical 26. ICES website also technical 27. Explaining advice with 3 key terms Credibility Salience Legitimacy Scientific plausibility Relevant and useable Unbiased, meeting standards 28. 2. The TAC machine 29. TAC Machine? 30. Bygdeforskning Artist: Bjarne StenbergThe Cyborg fish: chain of standardizations allow stock assessments and TAC forecasts http://www.cyborg-fish.net/ 31. TAC Machine 32. The TAC Machine requires VPA 33. TAC as aboundary object

Certification of Knowledge

Authorization of intervention

Valuation

Legitimation

34. Science-policy interface constituted by the TAC Machine

Stock assessment is legitimated as a science in order to stabilize the TAC as a boundary object

• The TAC Machine fish is reconstructed as a realist object

• The Stock assessment operator is reconstructed as an autonomous scientist

• Stock assessment science is organized according to a mertonian ethos of science

35. TAC Machine? ICES Herring Working Group 1996 36. 3. ICES and theprecautionary approach 37. The precautionary approach and the boundary between science and policy Science Policy 38. What came before the Precautionary approach: MBAL

there is likely to be a level of spawning stock size below which theprobability of poor recruitment increases...some idea of the bounds within which it may lie can be obtained by examining the historic variation in recruitment at different levels of spawning stock. For present purposes, this level is named the " minimum biologically acceptable level" (MBAL).

Serchuk, F. and R. J. R. Grainger (1992). Development of the basis and form of the ICES fishery management advice: historical background (1976-1990) and the new form of advice (1991-??). ICES C.M. 1992 / Assess: 20. 39. Precautionary Approach:history of a concept

Rio declaration (1992)

UN Straddling Fish Stock and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks agreement (1995)

FAO Code of Conduct for responsible fisheries (1995)

40. Rio declaration (1992)

• (Principle 15) In order to protect the environment, theprecautionary approachshall be widely applied by States according to their capabilities.Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage,lack of full scientific certaintyshall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.

41. UN Straddling Fish Stock and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks agreement (1995)

• Two types of precautionary reference points should be used:conservation, orlimit, reference pointsand management, ortarget, reference points . Limit reference points set boundaries which are intended to constrain harvesting withinsafe biological limitswithin which the stocks can producemaximum sustainable yield.Target reference points are intended to meet management objectives.

42. MBAL can be reconstituted in the precautionary approach MBAL Precautionary biomass 43. Request from EC to ICES

The Commission therefore request ICES to provide for each stock fishing mortality limits and spawning biomass thresholds that will satisfymedium and long terms sustainabilityof these stocks. The harvest strategy and corresponding fishing mortalities should have associatedhigh probabilityof maintaining the stock above the defined threshold level within defined time periods. The range of probabilities that may be used by ICES and that would satisfy the Commission are95%, 90%, and 80%.

44. ICES struggle with the precautionary approach 1997 1998 1998 2001 2002 2003 2007 Study Group on the Precautionary Approach (1) Study Group on the Precautionary Approach (2) ACFM 1998 Study Group on the Further Development of the Precautionary Approach (1) Study Group on the Further Development of the Precautionary Approach (2 + 3) Study Group on the Precautionary Reference Points for Advice (SGPRP) Study Group on the Biological Reference Points for North east Artic Cod (SGBRP) 2003 Workshop on Target and Limit reference points (WKREF) 45. So what is this beast called precautionary approach? 46. SGPA 1997 is shifting the concept of precautionary approach

From a generic description to an specific technical calculation of an uncertainty threshold:

• In order to avoid limit reference points, management actions should be taken before fishing mortality exceeds Flimit or biomass is below Blimit.ACFM/ICES may therefore identify additional reference points, Fpa (Fprecautionary approach) and Bpa where remedial action would be advisedin order to avoid the limit reference points being reached.

• The precautionary basis for advice given by ACFM will be that, for a given stock, the probability of exceeding the limit should be no more than5%in any given year.

47. ... but the ambitions are still quite broad

ACFM/ICES will advise and comment on how well aspects of management conform to the precautionary approach with respect to:

• the existence, compatibility and measurability ofobjectiveswhich would influence advice and the choice of targets;

• the existence and choice of limit and targetreference pointsand management plans;

• the existence, appropriateness and effectiveness ofrecovery plans ;

• the effectiveness of measures taken tomonitor and regulateexploitation rate;

• the effectiveness of measures explicitly taken to protectnon-target species, biodiversity and habitats.

Maximum Sustainable Yield andTarget reference pointshave been dropped 48. ACFM 1998: role division on reference points

• ACFMs mandate to makefinal decisions on limit reference points , but fisherymanagement agenciesshould be involved in decisions on precautionary reference points. (ICES 1998a, p2)

Science Policy 49. Preliminary closure in 1998: defining the reference values 50. Preliminary closure in 1998: reasoning behind the values Blim-> Bpa 51. Dealing with uncertainty and risk: the basis for e 1.645*

Few studies have adequately estimated thefull range of uncertaintiesassociated with assessing fish stock sizes and predicting future catches....

The results of studies ... have indicated measurement errors of20 to 40% CV(Coefficient of Variation) for the projected catches for a particular year.

Therefore,CVs of this magnitude were utilized(where appropriate) to evaluate uncertainty of the reference points.

The overall real uncertainty, however, is likely to begreaterthan the CVs of 2040% suggest. (ICES 1998a)

Uncertainties are first assumed and then reconstituted as 1.645 52. ... and the new ACFM presentation Example: Cod in the North Sea 53. Attempts to apply rule-based decision systems in ICES (2001) 54. Further developments 2001-2003: attempts to be more systematic Segmented regression to define Blim Method to derive other ref. points 55. A sudden closure in 2003: clients dont want new reference points

• It was stressed that harvest control rules would be much better and that EC is requesting this. .... It was considered by some thatgoing for the HCR would need almost exactly the same analysis and considerations of the basic principle and philosophy as the old PA reference points.They may have a new name but would be of a similar nature. (ACFM minutes 2003)

56. Conclusion: PA as boundary ordering device

Defining resonsibilities between science and policy

Lack of transparency on basis for choice of reference points

Pre-determining risk options from science perspective

No formal closure of debate; the struggle continues

57. Overall reflections

TAC machine and precautionary approach operate in the same way:

• Boundary ordering devices

Science in a mertonian perspective (objective) and as an epistemic community (consensus)

58. Post-normal Science?

Funtowicz and Ravetz

• Science uncertain,

• Stakes high,

• Decisions urgent

Extended peer review

Transparency and process

59. Garcia & Charles: combining a science-based analytical process with a negotiation-based decision-making process 60. Wageningen UR, Centre for Marine PolicyP.O.Box1528 8901 BV Leeuwarden, the Netherlands phone +31 317 487 849mobile +31 610 939 549 Email [email_address] Internet www.cmp.wur.nl Blogmartinpastoors.blogspot.com/ Twitter@martinpastoorsor @marinepolicy LinkedIn nl.linkedin.com/in/martinpastoors 61. Further reading

Garcia, S. M., A. Zerbi, C. Aliaume, T. Do Chi and G. Lassere ( 2003 ). The ecosystem approach to fisheries. Issues, terminology, principles, etc.

Morishita, J. (2008). "What is the ecosystem approach for fisheries management?" Marine Policy 32(1): 19-26.

FAO (2003). FAO Technical guidelines for responsible fisheries no. 4. Fisheries management. Suppl. 1 The Ecosystem Approach to fisheries, FAO. 2003.

Gislason, H. (2006). The Requirements of an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (chapter 12).In:Motos and D. C. Wilson.

Garcia, S. M. and A. T. Charles (2008). Fishery systems and linkages

Rice, J. C. (2005). "Implementation of the ecosystem approach to fisheries management " MEPS

ICES (2004). Report of the 13th ICES dialogue meeting: Advancing scientific advice for an ecosystem approach to management

Holmes, J. and J. Lock (2009). "Generating the evidence for marine fisheries policy and management." Marine Policy 34(1): 29-35.

Frid, C., O. Paramor and C. Scott (2005). "Ecosystem-based fisheries management: progress in the NE Atlantic."Marine Policy 29 (5): 461-469.