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2015 年 7 月 10 日

中国：建筑：基础设施证券研究报告

调整铁路/“一带一路”假设和对中国机械工程的盈利预测；中国中车(A)评级上调至中性 (摘要) 更多铁路，更多列车… 我们更新了“十三五”（2016-2020 年）期间的铁路

完工里程假设，目前预计相对于“十二五”期间而

言，高铁完工里程基本保持不变（约 17,000 公里），

而同期动车组数量受到高铁客运量增长和现有动车组

客座率上升的推动将增长 70%。我们看到，过去 12 个

月里有 6,000 多公里新高铁线路获批，而随着地方政

府继续推出新高铁计划，这一数字有可能进一步上

升，尽管融资可能仍是最大的挑战。

…但下调“一带一路”假设 2015 年 6 月 29 日，亚投行 50个意向创始成员国在北

京联合签署了亚投行协定，标志着亚投行正式成立。然

而，200 亿美元的初步实收资本低于我们 600 亿美元的

预期（参见 2015年 4月 24日发表的“中国：建筑：基础设施：挖掘丝路商机 II：1,060 亿美元新市场于 2016年打开；买入中交建、中国机械工程”）。因此，我们

将丝路基金和亚投行年度新增资金假设由 450 亿美元

下调至 220亿美元。

* 全文翻译随后提供

对铁路/工程建设企业影响不一；上调中国中车(A)的评级至中性，维持对中国机械工程/中石化炼化工程的买入评级 (1) 我们上调后的铁路完工里程假设将直接利好研究范

围内的高铁建设企业、动车组制造商以及关键零部件供

应商。不过，下调“一带一路”资金假设将对工程建设企

业的海外业务收入造成负面影响。综合考虑两项因素，

我们将研究范围内铁路/工程建设企业（不包括中国机

械工程）的 2015-2017年每股盈利预测调整了-6%至

4%。我们将中国中车(A)、中联重科(H)和郑煤机的评

级从卖出上调至中性，因为其股价近期回调后估值处于

合理水平。

(2) 我们将中国机械工程的 2015-2017 年每股盈利预测

下调了 7%-11%，以计入土耳其电力资产收购延迟、短

期内电力总包业务放缓以及“一带一路”资金假设下调

的因素。我们仍建议买入中国机械工程和中石化炼化工

程，因为这两只股票估值较低（剔除现金的 2016 年预

期市盈率仅为 4.4 倍/2.8倍）、股息收益率具吸引力

（2015年预期为 3.8%/5.5%，位居前列）、回报处于

领先水平（2016年预期净资产回报率为 17%/14%，而

行业均值为 13%）。我们将基于 EV/GCI-CROCI/WACC的 12 个月目标价格调整了-43%至 14%，以计入盈利预测调整和估值盯市的因素。

研究范围内基建和铁路企业概览

资料来源：Datastream、高盛全球投资研究、高华证券研究

相关研究

中国：建筑：基础设施：挖掘丝路商机 II：1,060 亿美元新市场于 2016 年打开；买入中交建、中国机械工程，2015 年 4 月 24日

中国：建筑：基础设施：估值调整：延展至 2016 年；因估值原因将北车/南车 A 下调至卖出，2015 年 4 月 24 日

杜茜执业证书编号: S1420511100001 +86(10)6627-3147 [email protected] 北京高华证券有限责任公司

北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。

北京高华证券有限责任公司投资研究

股票代码公司名称评级 12个月目标价

A股

601800.SS 中国交建 (A) 中性 Rmb 16.5

601390.SS 中国中铁 (A) 中性 Rmb 11.3

601186.SS 中国铁建 (A) 中性 Rmb 12.6

601766.SS 中国中车 (A) 中性 Rmb 15.1

海外

2386.HK 中石化炼化买入 HK$ 10.5

1800.HK 中国交建 (H) 买入 HK$ 16.8

1829.HK 中国机械工程买入 HK$ 9.9

1766.HK 中国中车 (H) 中性 HK$ 13.0

1186.HK 中国铁建 (H) 中性 HK$ 12.4

3898.HK 南车时代电气中性 HK$ 56.5

0390.HK 中国中铁 (H) 中性 HK$ 7.9

3311.HK 中国建筑国际中性 HK$ 12.0

2015 年 7 月 10 日中国：建筑：基础设施

全球投资研究 2

Table of contents

Revisiting railway assumptions on latest High Speed Rail line approvals 4

Revisiting OROB assumptions on lower-than-expected initial paid-in capital 6

Cut CMEC earnings on S-T weakness; maintain Buy CMEC/SEG on attractive risk/reward 8

Updating target prices/ratings on earnings revisions and change in valuation multiple 10

CRRC (A): Valuation now appears reasonable after recent correction; upgrade to Neutral 13

Zoomlion (H): Outlook remains tough but valuation appears fair; upgrade to Neutral 15

ZMJ: Upgrade to Neutral post underperformance 17

Disclosure Appendix 20

The prices in the report are based on the market close of July 9, 2015, unless stated otherwise. Gao Hua Securities acknowledges the role of Tian Lu, CFA and Frank Shi of Goldman Sachs in the preparation of this product.

Exhibit 1: Updated ratings, 12-month target prices and potential upside/downside for our China Infrastructure Construction & Machinery coverage

Prices are as of July 9, 2015.

Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Ticker CompanyPrevious

Rating

Current

Rating

Previous 12-m

Target Price

Current 12-m

Target Price Current price

Potential

upside/

downside

Sub-sector

Onshore

000528.SZ Guangxi Liugong Neutral Neutral Rmb 13.3 Rmb 10.0 Rmb 8.78 14% Construction machinery

600761.SS Heli Neutral Neutral Rmb 16.8 Rmb 14.0 Rmb 12.50 12% Construction machinery

000157.SZ Zoomlion (A) Neutral Neutral Rmb 6.2 Rmb 6.3 Rmb 5.93 6% Construction machinery

600582.SS Tian Di Science & Technology Neutral Neutral Rmb 21.3 Rmb 14.9 Rmb 14.53 3% Mining machinery

601717.SS Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Sell Neutral Rmb 6.6 Rmb 6.6 Rmb 6.80 -3% Mining machinery

601800.SS China Communications Construction (A) Neutral Neutral Rmb 26.2 Rmb 16.5 Rmb 17.04 -3% E&C

601766.SS CRRC Corp. (A) Sell Neutral Rmb 18.6 Rmb 15.1 Rmb 17.70 -15% Rolling stock

601390.SS China Railway Group (A) Neutral Neutral Rmb 15 Rmb 11.3 Rmb 13.61 -17% E&C

601186.SS China Railway Construction (A) Neutral Neutral Rmb 22.1 Rmb 12.6 Rmb 17.49 -28% E&C

000680.SZ Shantui Sell Sell Rmb 3.8 Rmb 3.8 Rmb 5.74 -34% Construction machinery

600031.SS Sany Heavy Sell Sell Rmb 5.7 Rmb 3.7 Rmb 6.63 -44% Construction machinery

Offshore

1800.HK China Communications Construction (H) Buy Buy HK$ 19.6 HK$ 16.8 HK$ 10.20 65% E&C

2386.HK Sinopec Engineering Group Buy Buy HK$ 9.2 HK$ 10.5 HK$ 6.61 59% E&C

1829.HK China Machinery Engineering Corp. Buy Buy HK$ 14 HK$ 9.9 HK$ 6.88 44% E&C

3339.HK Lonking Holdings Neutral Neutral HK$ 1.7 HK$ 1.6 HK$ 1.28 25% Construction machinery

1766.HK CRRC Corp. (H) Neutral Neutral HK$ 14.5 HK$ 13.0 HK$ 10.54 23% Rolling stock

1186.HK China Railway Construction (H) Neutral Neutral HK$ 14.2 HK$ 12.4 HK$ 10.50 18% E&C

0390.HK China Railway Group (H) Neutral Neutral HK$ 9.2 HK$ 7.9 HK$ 7.12 11% E&C

1157.HK Zoomlion (H) Sell Neutral HK$ 4.3 HK$ 4.3 HK$ 3.99 8% Construction machinery

3898.HK Zhuzhou CSR Times Electric Co. Neutral Neutral HK$ 58.1 HK$ 56.5 HK$ 55.95 1% Rolling stock

0631.HK Sany Heavy Equipment International Sell Sell HK$ 1.7 HK$ 1.7 HK$ 1.72 -1% Mining machinery

3311.HK China State Construction Intl Neutral Neutral HK$ 12.6 HK$ 12.0 HK$ 12.38 -3% E&C



Exhibit 2: EPS revisions summary for our China Infrastructure Construction & Machinery coverage

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E

601717.SS ZMJ Rmb 0.12 0.15 0.17 0.12 0.15 0.17 0% 0% 0% Historical trough EV/GCIHigher-than-expected revenue growth; higher-than-expected margin for

hydraulic roof supports

600582.SS Tian Di Rmb 0.76 0.75 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.77 0% 0% 0%2016E EV/GCI vs.

CROCI/WACC

Greater/smaller-than-expected coal price decline; quicker/slower-than-

expected integration of injected assets

0631.HK SANYI Rmb 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.07 0% 0% 0% Historical trough EV/GCIHigher-than-expected roadheader sales growth; faster-than-expected sales

growth and margin recovery for CCMU products

600031.SS Sany Heavy Rmb 0.03 0.14 0.14 0.03 0.14 0.14 0% 0% 0%2016E EV/GCI vs.

CROCI/WACC

Higher-than expected excavator/concrete machinery volume growth; higher-

than expected margins.

1157.HK/000157.SZ Zoomlion (H)/(A) Rmb 0.00 0.06 0.07 0.00 0.06 0.07 0% 0% 0% Historical trough EV/GCI

Higher/lower-than-expected concrete machinery growth; larger/smaller-than-

expected pricing pressure in concrete machinery market due to new

entrants; stronger/weaker-than-expected demand for truck cranes.

000528.SZ Guangxi Liugong Rmb 0.14 0.19 0.21 0.14 0.19 0.21 0% 0% 0%2016E EV/GCI vs.

CROCI/WACC

Higher/lower-than expected loader/excavator volume growth; higher/lower-

than expected margins.

3339.HK Lonking Holdings Rmb 0.09 0.10 0.12 0.09 0.10 0.12 0% 0% 0%2016E EV/GCI vs.

CROCI/WACC

Higher/lower-than-expected loader and excavator demand; larger/smaller-

than-expected credit loss related to finance lease/bank mortgage sales.

600761.SS Heli Rmb 0.80 0.85 0.93 0.80 0.85 0.93 0% 0% 0%2016E EV/GCI vs.

CROCI/WACC

Higher/lower-than-expected forklift sales; higher/lower-than-expected forklift

gross margin; stronger/ weaker-than-expected

cost control measures.

000680.SZ Shantui Rmb -0.05 -0.02 0.00 -0.05 -0.02 0.00 0% 0% 0% Historical trough EV/GCI

Higher-than-expected

dozer/excavator volume growth; higher-than-expected associate

income from Shantui-Komatsu.

1766.HK/601766.SS CRRC (H)/(A) Rmb 0.53 0.57 0.66 0.53 0.55 0.64 1% 3% 4%2016E EV/GCI vs.

CROCI/WACCHigher MU delivery assumptions

Higher/lower-than-expected China Railway Corporation spending;

stronger/weaker-than-expected merger synergy

3898.HK Zhuzhou CSR Rmb 2.07 2.28 2.67 2.05 2.22 2.58 1% 3% 4%2016E EV/GCI vs.

CROCI/WACCHigher MU delivery assumptions

Higher/lower-than-expected China Railway Corporation spending;

stronger/weaker-than-expected merger synergy

1800.HK/601800.SS CCCC (H)/(A) Rmb 0.96 1.11 1.30 0.95 1.18 1.37 1% -6% -6%2016E EV/GCI vs.

CROCI/WACC

Higher HSR construction

assumptions; lower OROB revenue

assumptions

Higher/lower-than-expected China infrastructure FAI; faster/slower-than-

expected overseas expansion

1186.HK/601186.SS CRCC (H)/(A) Rmb 1.00 1.13 1.22 1.00 1.12 1.21 0% 0% 1%2016E EV/GCI vs.

CROCI/WACC



assumptions


expected overseas expansion; better/worse-than-expected cost control

0390.HK/601390.SS CRG (H)/(A) Rmb 0.53 0.61 0.65 0.53 0.60 0.63 0% 2% 2%2016E EV/GCI vs.

CROCI/WACC



assumptions


expected overseas expansion; better/worse-than-expected cost control

3311.HK CSCI HK$ 1.04 1.30 1.54 1.04 1.30 1.54 0% 0% 0%2016E EV/GCI vs.

CROCI/WACC

Higher/lower-than-expected new orders for cash construction/infrastructure

investment businesses; faster/slower-than-expected benchmark lending rate

changes for its BT businesses.

1829.HK CMEC Rmb 0.52 0.63 0.75 0.58 0.71 0.81 -10% -11% -7%2016E EV/GCI vs.

CROCI/WACC

Lower power business growth

assumptions and profit assumptions

from Turkey power transmission and

distribution JV; lower OROB revenue

assumptions

Less-than-expected effective new order; slower-than-expected project

execution; potential war/disease/scandal etc in the country it operates in

2386.HK SEG Rmb 0.74 0.80 0.82 0.74 0.82 0.84 0% -2% -2%2016E EV/GCI vs.

CROCI/WACCLower OROB revenue assumptions

Further weakness in oil price and capex cut by oil majors; slower-than-

expected overseas expansion

Key risksEPS

currencyTicker Company

EPS forecast - new EPS forecast - old Change from lastValuation methodology Reasons for earnings change



Revisiting railway assumptions on latest High Speed Rail line approvals While China is set to achieve its 12th FYP target of a total railway operating length of 120,000km, including more than 20,000km of HSR, we expect the Chinese government to continue to invest heavily in its railway/HSR construction over the 13th FYP (2016-2020) and have noted over 6,000km of new HSR lines being approved in the past 12 months. We now forecast close to 17,000km in HSR additions over the 13th FYP, similar in magnitude to the 12th FYP of 17,100km.

More importantly, given continually rising HSR passenger volumes and MU load factors, we believe China Railway Corporation (CRC) will have to deploy more trains in the newly built and existing HSR rail sections, thereby driving up HSR train density and creating sustainable demand growth for MU. During the 12th FYP CRC added c.14,000 MU cars (from an installed base of only c.4,400 MU cars at the end of 2010), and we now forecast a further 23,000 incremental MU cars to be added (a 70% increase over the 12th FYP), taking MU’s installed base to c.40,000 cars by 2020E.

Our higher railway assumptions will directly benefit HSR construction companies such as, China Railway Construction Corporation, China

Railway Group, and China Communications Construction Company, MU train manufacturer, CRRC Corporation, and MU key component supplier Zhuzhou CSR Times Electric.

Exhibit 3: Following the addition of 6,000km of HSR lines in China, the 13th FYP is equivalent in size to the 12th FYP Historical and planned HSR length addition, 2008-2020E

Source: China Ministry of Transport, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

201

5E

201

6E

201

7E

201

8E

201

9E

202

0E

HSR length addition - new approvals

HSR length addition - previous GS forecastkm



Exhibit 4: We continue to expect an increase in density driven by passenger volume growth, as well as growing maintenance demand Historical and planned HSR MU trains completion, 2007-2020E

Exhibit 5: In summary, we forecast MU train additions to grow 70% in the 13th FYP with HSR track length additions remaining relatively flat China’s HSR track length addition and MU train addition, 12th FYP (2011-2015E) vs. 13th FYP (2016E-2020E)

Source: China Ministry of Transport, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Source: Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E

2019

E

2020

E

Equivalent demand from maintenance

Demand from density rise/passenger volume growth

Demand from HSR line additions

Trainset

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

HSR track length addition MU train addition

12th FYP 13th FYP

Note: HSR track length addition in km; MU train addition in cars;

-1%

+70%



Revisiting OROB assumptions on lower-than-expected initial paid-in capital On June 29, 2015, 50 founding member countries of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) jointly signed an Article of Agreement in Beijing, marking the official establishment of AIIB. Important terms of AIIB’s Article of Agreement include:

Registered capital set at US$100bn with Asian countries contributing 75% of the total.

China to contribute 30.34% of the capital and will have 26.06% of the voting power.

Initial paid-in capital at 20% of registered capital, or US$20bn – below our original expectation of US$60bn. As a result, we

lower our forecast for annual funding made available through AIIB and Silk Road Fund (SRF) to US$22bn from US$45bn

previously (we continue to assume an equity ratio of 22%, or approximately 4.5X leverage of the paid in capital for AIIB).

Reduced OROB assumptions will directly impact E&C companies in our coverage with overseas exposure, including China

Communications Construction Company, China Machinery Engineering Corporation, China Railway Construction Corporation,

China Railway Group, and Sinopec Engineering Group. For the specific impact from AIIB and SRF on each company’s earnings under the updated set of assumptions, please refer to Exhibit 8.

Exhibit 6: We now forecast SRF and AIIB to add US$22bn/annum incremental funding vs. US$45bn previously…

Source: Sina, World Bank, The Wall Street Journal.

US$bn 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% AIIB reserve ratio 22%

1.0x 167 153 141 132 124 118 112 Silk road fund multiplier 2.0x

1.5x 187 173 161 152 144 138 132

2.0x 207 193 181 172 164 158 152 AIIB total size (USD bn) 100

2.5x 227 213 201 192 184 178 172 AIIB paid in capital size (USD bn) 20

3.0x 247 233 221 212 204 198 192 SRF size (USD bn) 40

Revenue opportunities (USD bn) 172

US$bn 207 193 181 172 164 158 152

6 35 32 30 29 27 26 25 Investment cycle (years) 8

7 30 28 26 25 23 23 22 Annual revenue opportunities (USD bn) 22

8 26 24 23 22 21 20 19

9 23 21 20 19 18 18 17

10 21 19 18 17 16 16 15Investm

en

t

cycle

(yea

rs)

Total funding AIIB "reserve ratio" AIIB+SRF calculation

Silk R

oad

Fu

nd

mu

ltip

lier

Annual funding Total funding (USD bn)



Exhibit 7: …which represents an 11% incremental impact to the c.US$190bn current funding Chinese contractors receive mainly from China Development Bank and China Export-Import Bank in 2013

Exhibit 8: Under our updated OROB assumptions, CMEC still benefits the most thanks to its exposure to the international EPC business

Source: Ipsos, China International Contractors Association, ENR, China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation, the Export-Import Bank of China, Bank of China, China Development Bank, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Gao Hua Securities Research.


Funding provided

by China banks to

China contractors

for int'l contracts

US$ 187.1bn

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Financing from China banks Intl new contract for Chinese

contractors

Others

Sewer/Waste

Harzardous waste

Manufacturing

Water

Telecommunication

Petrochemical

Transportation

Housing

Power

US$ bn

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

CCCC CRCC CRG CMEC SEG

AIIB + SRF 2016E EPS impact



Cut CMEC earnings on S-T weakness; maintain Buy CMEC/SEG on attractive risk/reward We revise down our 2015E/2016E/2017E EPS for CMEC by 10%/11%/7% mainly to reflect:

Delay in its acquisition of the Turkey power grid assets as CMEC reconsiders the transaction price on the back of Turkish

lira’s volatility over the past few months. We now assume the transaction will be completed in 4Q15 and the earnings

impact to be seen in 2016 (vs. our earlier assumption for the transaction to be completed in 2Q15). Consequently, the

company is likely to delay other potential cash deployment projects. This alone accounts for c.8pp of our 2015E EPS

revision.

Slightly lower power business growth assumptions due to the delay in Pakistan Thar open cast mine/power plant projects

turning effective, and lower OROB assumptions as illustrated in Exhibit 8.

Looking across our E&C coverage, we continue to highlight CMEC/SEG as our 2 Buy ideas with attractive risk/reward profiles.

Undemanding valuation:

o CMEC has over Rmb22bn in cash vs. a market cap of Rmb23bn after the recent pull back; even when advances from customers are excluded the company still has net cash of Rmb13bn, leading to an ex-cash 2016E P/E of 4.4X.

o Similarly SEG has over Rmb20bn in cash including loans to its ultimate holding company vs. a market cap of Rmb23.4bn; even when advances from customers are excluded the company still has net cash of Rmb13.6bn, leading to an ex-cash 2016E P/E of 3.2X.

Attractive dividend yield: CMEC/SEG offer two of the highest 2015E dividend yields of 3.8%/5.6% in our coverage group.

Top-tier return: Despite near-term earnings headwinds, CMEC still offers one of the highest returns with 2015E/2016E ROE of 16%/17%, vs. the median of China E&C companies under our coverage at 13%/13%. SEG also delivers above average 2015E/2016E ROE of 14%/14% while trading at 2015E/2016E P/B of 0.9X/0.9X.

Exhibit 9: CMEC’s net cash is 98% of its current market cap, or 58% even when advances from customers at the end of 2014 are excluded CMEC net cash, net cash excluding customer advances and market cap

Exhibit 10: CMEC trades on 0.2X 2016E ex-cash P/E, or about 4.4X excluding customer advances from cash CMEC 2015E/2016E P/E and ex-cash P/E

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Cash and time deposit Minus contract deposit Market cap

98% of market

cap in cash

58% of

market cap

in cash

Rmb mn

0.0X

2.0X

4.0X

6.0X

8.0X

10.0X

12.0X

2015E P/E 2016E P/E 2015E Ex-cash

PE

2016E Ex-cash

PE

2015E Ex-cash

PE (incl

receipts in

advance in

cash)

2016E Ex-cash

PE (incl

receipts in

advance in

cash)



Exhibit 11: SEG’s net cash is 87% of its current market cap, or 58% even when advances from customers at the end of 2014 are excluded SEG net cash, net cash excluding customer advances and market cap

Exhibit 12: SEG trades on 1.0X ex-cash 2016E P/E, or about 3.2X excluding customer advances from cash SEG 2015E/2016E P/E and ex-cash P/E

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Exhibit 13: CMEC/SEG gives 3.8%/5.6% 2015E dividend yield and is on a 1.6X/0.9X 2015E P/B

Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Cash and loans from

related parties

Minus contract deposit Market cap

58% of

market

cap

87% of

market cap

Rmb mn

0.0X

1.0X

2.0X

3.0X

4.0X

5.0X

6.0X

7.0X

8.0X

2015E P/E 2016E P/E 2015E Ex-cash

PE

2016E Ex-cash

PE

2015E Ex-cash

PE (incl

receipts in

advance in

cash)

2016E Ex-cash

PE (incl

receipts in

advance in

cash)



Updating target prices/ratings on earnings revisions and change in valuation multiple

Exhibit 14: Our updated A-share China Infrastructure Construction & Machinery sector cash flow multiple is 1.15X after marking to market…

Exhibit 15: …while our H-share China Infrastructure Construction & Machinery sector cash flow multiple stands at 0.98X after marking to market



Exhibit 16: Director’s Cut-based valuation summary for our A-share coverage


y = 1.1472x

0.0x

0.2x

0.4x

0.6x

0.8x

1.0x

1.2x

1.4x

1.6x

1.8x

0.6x 0.7x 0.8x 0.9x 1.0x 1.1x 1.2x 1.3x 1.4x

2016E EV/GCI

2016E CROCI/WACC

*Excluding Zoomlion, ZMJ and Shantui in calculating the sector cash flow multiple as they're outliers

CCCC A

CRCC A

CRG A

Tian DiSany

Liugong

Heli

y = 0.9823x

0.0x

0.5x

1.0x

1.5x

2.0x

2.5x

3.0x

3.5x

0.0x 0.5x 1.0x 1.5x 2.0x 2.5x

2016E EV/GCI

2016E CROCI/WACC

CCCC H

CRCC H

CRG H

SANYI

Zoomlion H

Lonking

SEG

CSCI

Zhuzhou CSR

CRRC H

CMEC

China

Communications

Construction (A)

China Railway

Construction (A)

China Railway

Group (A)

Zhengzhou Coal

Mining Machinery

Tian Di Science &

TechnologySany Heavy Zoomlion (A) Guangxi Liugong Heli Shantui

2016E 601800.SS 601186.SS 601390.SS 601717.SS 600582.SS 600031.SS 000157.SZ 000528.SZ 600761.SS 000680.SZ

Sector EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC 1.15x 1.15x 1.15x 1.15x 1.15x 1.15x 1.15x 1.15x 1.15x 1.15x

Historical EV/GCI premium/ (discount) 6% -27% -1% -19% 19% 20% 19% 49% 31% 78%

Current EV/GCI premium/ (discount) -11% -28% 4% 0% -1% 71% 0% 0% 3% 0%

Premium/ (discount) applied 0% -35% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 78%

CROCI/WACC 1.0x 1.1x 1.1x 0.3x 1.3x 0.8x 1.0x 1.3x 0.4x

Implied EV/GCI 1.2x 0.8x 1.2x 1.0x 1.5x 0.9x 1.3x 1.2x 1.5x 0.8x

Gross capital invested (RMB mn) 400,277 277,287 288,508 8,263 20,083 53,356 44,188 9,565 5,223 7,915

Implied EV (RMB mn) 463,066 234,477 357,941 8,250 30,681 46,472 57,445 11,203 7,763 6,408

Net debt and minority interest (RMB mn) 196,982 79,473 116,945 (2,524) 2,344 18,246 8,979 (26) (865) 1,702

Implied market cap (RMB mn) 266,084 155,004 240,996 10,774 28,337 28,226 48,465 11,228 8,628 4,707

Number of shares (mn) 16,175 12,338 21,300 1,621 1,896 7,617 7,706 1,125 617 1,241

Pricing currency RMB RMB RMB RMB RMB RMB RMB RMB RMB RMB

12-m target price 16.5 12.6 11.3 6.6 14.9 3.7 6.3 10.0 14.0 3.8

Current price 17.0 17.5 13.6 6.8 14.5 6.6 5.9 8.8 12.5 5.7

Upside/downside to target price -3% -28% -17% -3% 3% -44% 6% 14% 12% -34%

Rating Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Sell Neutral Neutral Neutral Sell

Implied 2015 P/E 17.2x 12.6x 21.2x 56.1x 19.5x 116.0x 10,019.1x 73.4x 17.5x -81.3x

Implied 2016 P/E 14.8x 11.2x 18.6x 43.1x 19.9x 27.3x 106.5x 52.3x 16.4x -157.6x



Exhibit 17: Director’s Cut-based valuation summary for our H-share coverage


Exhibit 18: Target price derivation for CRRC A/H

Exhibit 19: Target price derivation for Zhuzhou CSR



China

Communications

Construction (H)

China Railway

Construction (H)

China Railway

Group (H)

Sany Heavy

Equipment

International

Zoomlion (H) Lonking HoldingsChina State

Construction Intl

China Machinery

Engineering Corp.

Sinopec

Engineering Group

2016E 1800.HK 1186.HK 0390.HK 0631.HK 1157.HK 3339.HK 3311.HK 1829.HK 2386.HK

Sector EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC 0.98x 0.98x 0.98x 0.98x 0.98x 0.98x 0.98x 0.98x 0.98x

Historical EV/GCI premium/ (discount) -15% -39% -25% 107% -18% -26% 24% -45% -53%

Current EV/GCI premium/ (discount) -17% -37% 2% 47% 96% -14% 13% -75% -54%

Premium/ (discount) applied 0% -35% 0% -10% 0% 0% -10%

CROCI/WACC 1.0x 1.1x 0.9x 0.8x 1.2x 1.3x 0.9x

Implied EV/GCI 1.0x 0.7x 0.9x 0.7x 0.8x 0.7x 1.1x 1.3x 0.8x

Gross capital invested (RMB mn) 400,277 277,287 288,508 8,917 44,188 11,506 39,553 13,361 29,137

Implied EV (RMB mn) 412,995 200,924 249,997 6,242 35,351 8,348 44,852 16,889 24,205

Net debt and minority interest (RMB mn) 196,982 79,473 116,945 1,496 8,979 2,932 7,575 (15,428) (12,779)

Implied market cap (RMB mn) 216,013 121,451 133,052 4,746 26,371 5,415 37,277 32,317 36,984

Number of shares (mn) 16,175 12,338 21,300 3,521 7,706 4,280 3,896 4,126 4,428

Pricing currency HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD

12-m target price 16.8 12.4 7.9 1.7 4.3 1.6 12.0 9.9 10.5

Current price 10.20 10.50 7.12 1.72 3.99 1.28 12.38 6.88 6.61

Upside/downside to target price 65% 18% 11% -1% 8% 25% -3% 44% 59%

Rating Buy Neutral Neutral Sell Neutral Neutral Neutral Buy Buy

Implied 2015 P/E 14.1x 9.9x 11.9x 27.6x 5,485.2x 13.6x 11.6x 15.2x 11.4x

Implied 2016 P/E 12.1x 8.8x 10.4x 24.0x 58.2x 13.0x 9.3x 12.5x 10.5x

CRRC A CRRC H

2017E

Sector EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC 1.4X 1.0X

Historical EV/GCI premium/ (discount) 39% 31%

Current EV/GCI premium/ (discount) 75% 6%

Premium/ (discount) applied 10% 10%

CROCI/WACC 1.9X 1.9X

Implied EV/GCI 2.9X 2.0X

Gross capital invested (RMB mn) 152,294 152,294

Implied EV (RMB mn) 449,004 306,120

Discounted back to 2016E 413,829 282,138

2016E Net debt and minority interest (RMB mn) 1,639 1,639

Implied market cap (RMB mn) 412,190 280,499

Number of shares (mn, post merger) 27,289 27,289

12-m target price (Rmb for A, HK$ for H) 15.1 13.0

Current price 17.7 10.5

Implied potential upside/downside -15% 23%

Rating Neutral Neutral

Implied 2015E P/E 28.4X 19.6X

Implied 2016E P/E 26.4X 18.2X

Zhuzhou (under injection

case)

2017E

Sector EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC 1.0X

Historical EV/GCI premium/ (discount) 87%

Current EV/GCI premium/ (discount) 41%

Premium/ (discount) applied 10%

CROCI/WACC 2.2X

Implied EV/GCI 2.4X

Gross capital invested (RMB mn) 22,354

Implied EV (RMB mn) 53,847

Discounted back to 2016E 49,629

2016E Net debt and minority interest (RMB mn) (3,042)

Implied market cap (RMB mn) 52,671

Number of shares (mn) 1,175

12-m target price (HKD) 56.5

Current price 55.95

Potential upside/downside 1%

Rating Neutral

Implied 2015E P/E 21.9X

Implied 2016E P/E 19.8X



Exhibit 20: CMEC, Zhuzhou CSR, and CRRC continue to generate sustainable Q1 CROCI among our coverage CROCI profile for China Infrastructure construction & Machinery coverage


Exhibit 21: China Infrastructure construction & Machinery coverage comps


Ticker Company 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E

1829.HK China Machinery Engineering Corporation 20.9% 22.1% 19.5% 20.6%

3898.HK Zhuzhou CSR Times Electric Co. 24.2% 19.0% 18.2% 22.2% 18.2% 18.2%

1766.HK/ 601766.SS CRRC Corporation Limited (H)/ (A) 14.8% 16.0% 18.2% 15.7% 15.6% 17.1% 16.3% 16.5%

600582.SS Tian Di Science & Technology 37.6% 34.4% 34.2% 27.1% 22.3% 16.6% 15.4% 14.6%

600761.SS Heli 10.5% 19.9% 17.6% 14.1% 18.4% 17.2% 14.1% 14.3%

1186.HK/ 601186.SS China Railway Construction (H)/(A) 19.4% 16.7% 21.1% 16.0% 16.0% 15.4% 13.7% 13.3%

3311.HK China State Construction International Holdings Limited 20.0% 16.9% 12.5% 14.7% 6.6% 12.0% 12.2%

000528.SZ Guangxi Liugong 26.4% 38.4% 19.9% 7.2% 9.5% 9.3% 9.7% 10.6%

2386.HK Sinopec Engineering Group Co 26.8% 21.7% 19.2% 12.9% 9.8% 10.3%

0390.HK/ 601390.SS China Railway Group (H)/ (A) 15.3% 11.8% 9.4% 9.8% 13.1% 10.4% 10.3%

1800.HK/ 601800.SS China Communications Construction (H)/ (A) 12.6% 13.1% 12.6% 10.6% 9.1% 10.3% 10.2%

3339.HK Lonking Holdings 22.9% 41.0% 21.5% 6.9% 12.9% 8.0% 7.9% 7.8%

600031.SS Sany Heavy 40.8% 50.9% 44.4% 20.5% 11.6% 6.2% 5.7% 7.4%

0631.HK Sany Heavy Equipment International Holdings 38.2% 28.2% 19.8% 12.6% 10.1% -8.7% 5.5% 6.2%

1157.HK/ 000157.SZ Zoomlion (H)/ (A) 23.9% 32.0% 42.5% 33.3% 17.4% 5.8% 3.6% 4.5%

000680.SZ Shantui 13.4% 23.6% 13.9% 4.4% -0.7% 7.5% 3.3% 3.8%

601717.SS Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group (A) 138.7% 69.7% 48.1% 39.7% 16.7% 7.3% 3.1% 3.7%

Q1 CROCI Q2 CROCI

Q3 CROCI Q4 CROCI

China E&C CompsNet debt/equity

2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E 2015E

China Communications Construction (A) 601800.SS Rmb17 Rmb16.5 Neutral 44,391 17.8X 15.3X 1.9X 1.8X 13.0X 12.3X 11% 16% 12% 12% 10% 10% 92%

China Communications Construction (H) 1800.HK HK$10.2 HK$16.8 Buy 21,284 8.5X 7.3X 0.9X 0.8X 8.8X 8.6X 11% 16% 12% 12% 10% 10% 92%

China Railway Construction (A) 601186.SS Rmb17.5 Rmb12.6 Neutral 34,754 17.5X 15.5X 2.1X 1.9X 9.3X 8.5X 9% 13% 13% 13% 14% 13% 50%

China Railway Construction (H) 1186.HK HK$10.5 HK$12.4 Neutral 16,712 8.4X 7.5X 1.0X 0.9X 5.7X 5.3X 9% 13% 13% 13% 14% 13% 50%

China Railway Group (A) 601390.SS Rmb13.6 Rmb11.3 Neutral 46,690 25.5X 22.4X 2.7X 2.4X 14.3X 13.5X 10% 14% 11% 11% 10% 10% 76%

China Railway Group (H) 0390.HK HK$7.1 HK$7.9 Neutral 19,565 10.7X 9.4X 1.1X 1.0X 8.2X 7.9X 10% 14% 11% 11% 10% 10% 76%

Sinopec Engineering Group 2386.HK HK$6.6 HK$10.5 Buy 3,776 7.2X 6.6X 0.9X 0.9X 3.1X 2.4X -7% 8% 14% 14% 10% 10% -43%

China State Construction Intl 3311.HK HK$12.4 HK$12 Neutral 6,210 11.9X 9.5X 2.1X 1.8X 12.3X 9.9X 18% 25% 19% 21% 12% 12% 36%

China Machinery Engineering Corp. 1829.HK HK$6.9 HK$9.9 Buy 3,662 10.6X 8.7X 1.6X 1.4X 1.5X 0.4X 3% 22% 16% 17% 20% 21% -138%

Median 10.7X 9.4X 1.6X 1.4X 8.8X 8.5X 10% 14% 13% 13% 10% 10% 50%

China Machinery CompsNet debt/equity

2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E 2015E

Tian Di Science & Technology 600582.SS Rmb14.5 Rmb14.9 Neutral 4,437 19.1X 19.4X 2.3X 2.1X 10.7X 10.2X -10% -2% 13% 11% 15% 15% -10%

Sany Heavy Equipment International 0631.HK HK$1.7 HK$1.7 Sell 675 27.9X 24.2X 0.7X 0.7X 20.0X 15.8X 3% 15% 3% 3% 6% 6% 20%

Sany Heavy 600031.SS Rmb6.6 Rmb3.7 Sell 8,133 207.9X 49.0X 2.1X 2.0X 26.5X 18.6X -66% 324% 1% 4% 6% 7% 73%

Shantui 000680.SZ Rmb5.7 Rmb3.8 Sell 1,147 1.8X 1.8X 48.1X 46.3X -225% 48% -1% -1% 3% 4% 33%

Heli 600761.SS Rmb12.5 Rmb14 Neutral 1,242 15.6X 14.6X 1.8X 1.7X 9.4X 8.4X -13% 7% 12% 12% 14% 14% -17%

Guangxi Liugong 000528.SZ Rmb8.8 Rmb10 Neutral 1,591 64.4X 45.9X 1.1X 1.1X 21.9X 20.1X -23% 40% 2% 2% 10% 11% 6%

Zoomlion (A) 000157.SZ Rmb5.9 Rmb6.3 Neutral 7,360 100.2X 1.1X 1.1X 30.6X 25.5X -99% 9311% 0% 1% 4% 4% 23%

Zoomlion (H) 1157.HK HK$4 HK$4.3 Neutral 3,967 54.0X 0.6X 0.6X 19.0X 15.7X -99% 9311% 0% 1% 3% 4% 23%

Lonking Holdings 3339.HK HK$1.3 HK$1.6 Neutral 707 10.9X 10.4X 0.6X 0.6X 7.8X 7.3X -3% 4% 6% 6% 8% 8% 43%

Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery 601717.SS Rmb6.8 Rmb6.6 Neutral 1,775 57.8X 44.4X 1.2X 1.1X 28.2X 23.0X -7% 30% 2% 3% 3% 4% -26%

Median 27.9X 44.4X 1.1X 1.1X 21.0X 17.2X -18% 35% 2% 3% 6% 7% 21%

China Rolling Stock CompsNet debt/equity

2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E 2015E

CRRC Corp. (A) 601766.SS Rmb17.7 Rmb15.1 Neutral 77,795 33.3X 31.0X 4.8X 4.3X 20.9X 19.5X 34% 8% 15% 15% 16% 16% -7%

CRRC Corp. (H) 1766.HK HK$10.5 HK$13 Neutral 37,106 15.9X 14.8X 2.3X 2.1X 10.1X 9.3X 34% 8% 15% 15% 16% 16% -7%

Zhuzhou CSR Times Electric Co. 3898.HK HK$56 HK$56.5 Neutral 8,485 21.7X 19.6X 4.2X 3.6X 19.7X 16.7X 2% 10% 21% 20% 18% 18% -20%

Median 21.7X 19.6X 4.2X 3.6X 19.7X 16.7X 34% 8% 15% 15% 16% 16% -7%

Price as of 9-Jul-2015 close

All financials are calendar-year based.

ROE CROCIP/E P/B EV/EBITDA EPS Growth

P/E P/B EV/EBITDA EPS Growth ROE

Market cap

(US$ mn)12-m TPCompany Ticker Current price Rating

CROCICompany Ticker Current price Rating

Market cap

(US$ mn)12-m TP

Company Ticker Current price Rating12-m TPROE CROCIMarket cap

(US$ mn)

P/E P/B EV/EBITDA EPS Growth



CRRC (A): Valuation now appears reasonable after recent correction; upgrade to Neutral What happened Since we added CRRC (A) to our Sell list on April 24, 2015 (Restack: Rolling over TPs to 2016E; CNR/CSR A to Sell on valuation), the stock has fallen 48% vs. -16% for the Shanghai SE A-share Index. After the recent share price correction, CRRC (A) now trades at 2015E/2016E P/E of 33.3X/31.0X while delivering 2015E/2016E CROCI of 16%/16%.

We remain constructive on the growth prospect of CRRC thanks to China’s sustainable Multiple Unit (MU) demand driven by rising passenger volumes and load factors of existing trains. We now forecast China’s MU train additions to grow 70% in the 13th Five Year Plan (FYP) over the 12th FYP. Together with the acceleration of maintenance / replacement demand and its favorable exposure to foreign markets through China’s “One Road, One Belt” (OROB) initiative, the robust domestic demand should drive 2014-2017E net income CAGR of +19% for CRRC (A). In our view, this justifies the valuation premium CRRC (A) has over global rolling stock peers who deliver median 2014-2017E net income CAGR of +3% and trade at a median 2016E P/E of 11.9X. As such, CRRC (A)’s valuation now appears reasonable and, as a consequence, we upgrade the stock to Neutral from Sell and revise our 12-month target price on the company to Rmb15.1, which implies 15% potential downside.

Current view We revise our 2015E/2016E/2017E EPS by +1%/+3%/+4% mainly to reflect higher MU delivery assumptions as a result of more HSR lines being approved recently.

Valuation We cut our 12-month 2016E EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC (Director’s Cut) based target price to Rmb15.1 from Rmb18.6 (our cash flow multiple changes from 1.6X to 1.4X after marking to market) as the sector’s lower cash flow multiple more than offsets the company’s higher earnings estimates.

Key risks (1) Higher/lower-than-expected CRC rolling stock fixed asset investment; (2) Larger/smaller-than-expected synergy from CNR-CSR merger; and (3) better/worse-than-expected overseas business execution.

Growth

Returns *

Multiple

Volatility Volatility

Multiple

Returns *

Growth

Investment Profile

Low High

Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th

* Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment

profile measures please refer to the

disclosure section of this document.

CRRC Corp. (A) (601766.SS)

Asia Pacific Industrials Peer Group Average

Key data Current

Price (Rmb) 18.04

12 month price target (Rmb) 15.10

Market cap (Rmb mn / US$ mn) 492,289.2 / 79,283.8

Foreign ownership (%) 7.4

12/14 12/15E 12/16E 12/17E

EPS (Rmb) 0.40 0.53 0.57 0.66

EPS growth (%) 20.1 34.1 7.6 16.2

EPS (diluted) (Rmb) 0.40 0.53 0.57 0.66

EPS (basic pre-ex) (Rmb) 0.40 0.53 0.57 0.66

P/E (X) 12.4 34.0 31.6 27.2

P/B (X) 1.5 4.9 4.4 4.0

EV/EBITDA (X) 7.7 21.3 19.8 17.4

Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.8 0.9 1.0

ROE (%) 13.2 15.3 14.8 15.4

CROCI (%) 17.1 16.3 16.5 17.1

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14

Price performance chart

China Communications Construction (H) (L) Hang Seng China Ent. Index (R)

Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month

Absolute 6.2 133.7 293.9

Rel. to Shanghai SE A Share Index 8.7 107.5 114.7

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 7/06/2015 close.



CRRC (A): Summary financials

Profit model (Rmb mn) 12/14 12/15E 12/16E 12/17E Balance sheet (Rmb mn) 12/14 12/15E 12/16E 12/17E

Total revenue 224,014.8 248,955.7 264,047.8 283,132.1 Cash & equivalents 37,034.2 47,886.3 52,531.3 58,816.9

Cost of goods sold (179,254.4) (197,230.3) (209,565.6) (223,883.4) Accounts receivable 81,789.2 85,555.2 90,758.8 97,226.1

SG&A (26,953.5) (30,248.1) (31,685.7) (33,268.0) Inventory 59,666.7 54,035.7 57,415.2 61,337.9

R&D (8,309.6) (4,000.0) (4,000.0) (4,000.0) Other current assets 22,662.8 23,162.8 23,662.8 24,162.8

Other operating profit/(expense) (3,665.0) (3,734.3) (3,960.7) (4,247.0) Total current assets 201,152.9 210,639.9 224,368.1 241,543.8

EBITDA 19,381.2 23,384.7 24,913.5 28,090.8 Net PP&E 58,743.5 64,467.4 68,576.3 72,363.8

Depreciation & amortization (5,239.4) (5,641.7) (6,077.8) (6,357.2) Net intangibles 16,551.0 16,167.2 15,821.8 15,490.8

EBIT 14,141.9 17,743.0 18,835.8 21,733.6 Total investments 5,977.7 5,032.1 5,786.6 6,616.4

Interest income 608.4 1,296.2 1,532.4 1,628.5 Other long-term assets 17,292.2 20,292.2 23,292.2 26,292.2

Interest expense (2,518.5) (3,055.1) (3,055.1) (3,040.2) Total assets 299,717.3 316,598.8 337,845.0 362,307.0

Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. 754.4 754.4 754.4 829.9

Others 1,476.5 1,050.0 1,050.0 1,050.0 Accounts payable 137,260.1 138,854.6 147,653.1 157,394.9

Pretax profits 14,462.7 17,788.6 19,117.5 22,201.8 Short-term debt 27,457.9 27,457.9 27,457.9 27,457.9

Income tax (2,141.1) (2,668.3) (2,867.6) (3,330.3) Other current liabilities 9,065.8 13,042.0 13,417.4 14,137.6

Minorities (1,514.2) (631.0) (658.0) (758.0) Total current liabilities 173,783.9 179,354.5 188,528.4 198,990.4

Long-term debt 12,216.0 12,216.0 12,216.0 12,216.0

Net income pre-preferred dividends 10,807.3 14,489.3 15,591.8 18,113.5 Other long-term liabilities 11,546.0 11,546.0 11,546.0 11,546.0

Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total long-term liabilities 23,762.0 23,762.0 23,762.0 23,762.0

Net income (pre-exceptionals) 10,807.3 14,489.3 15,591.8 18,113.5 Total liabilities 197,545.9 203,116.5 212,290.4 222,752.3

Post-tax exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net income 10,807.3 14,489.3 15,591.8 18,113.5 Preferred shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total common equity 89,304.6 99,817.8 111,058.1 124,099.7

EPS (basic, pre-except) (Rmb) 0.40 0.53 0.57 0.66 Minority interest 12,866.8 13,664.6 14,496.5 15,454.9

EPS (basic, post-except) (Rmb) 0.40 0.53 0.57 0.66

EPS (diluted, post-except) (Rmb) 0.40 0.53 0.57 0.66 Total liabilities & equity 299,717.3 316,598.8 337,845.0 362,307.0

DPS (Rmb) 0.00 0.15 0.16 0.19

Dividend payout ratio (%) 0.0 27.4 27.9 28.0 BVPS (Rmb) 3.27 3.66 4.07 4.55

Free cash flow yield (%) 12.7 2.1 1.7 2.1

Growth & margins (%) 12/14 12/15E 12/16E 12/17E Ratios 12/14 12/15E 12/16E 12/17E

Sales growth 13.9 11.1 6.1 7.2 CROCI (%) 17.1 16.3 16.5 17.1

EBITDA growth 29.5 20.7 6.5 12.8 ROE (%) 13.2 15.3 14.8 15.4

EBIT growth 31.6 25.5 6.2 15.4 ROA (%) 4.0 4.7 4.8 5.2

Net income growth 30.3 34.1 7.6 16.2 ROACE (%) 13.7 15.8 16.1 17.2

EPS growth 20.1 34.1 7.6 16.2 Inventory days 98.0 105.2 97.1 96.8

Gross margin 20.0 20.8 20.6 20.9 Receivables days 136.2 122.7 121.9 121.2

EBITDA margin 8.7 9.4 9.4 9.9 Payable days 247.2 255.5 249.5 248.7

EBIT margin 6.3 7.1 7.1 7.7 Net debt/equity (%) 2.6 (7.2) (10.2) (13.7)

Interest cover - EBIT (X) 7.4 10.1 12.4 15.4

Cash flow statement (Rmb mn) 12/14 12/15E 12/16E 12/17E Valuation 12/14 12/15E 12/16E 12/17E

Net income pre-preferred dividends 10,807.3 14,489.3 15,591.8 18,113.5

D&A add-back 5,239.4 5,641.7 6,077.8 6,357.2 P/E (analyst) (X) 12.4 34.0 31.6 27.2

Minorities interests add-back 1,514.2 631.0 658.0 758.0 P/B (X) 1.5 4.9 4.4 4.0

Net (inc)/dec working capital 9,121.4 459.6 (2,784.7) (3,648.3) EV/EBITDA (X) 7.7 21.3 19.8 17.4

Other operating cash flow 1,801.1 (1,254.4) (1,254.4) (1,329.9) EV/GCI (X) 1.2 3.8 3.5 3.2

Cash flow from operations 28,483.4 19,967.1 18,288.5 20,250.5 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.8 0.9 1.0

Capital expenditures (9,863.2) (9,281.8) (9,841.3) (9,813.6)

Acquisitions (1,590.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0

Divestitures 274.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

Others (8,495.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0

Cash flow from investments (19,673.9) (9,281.8) (9,841.3) (9,813.6)

Dividends paid (common & pref) (5,764.9) 0.0 (3,976.1) (4,351.6)

Inc/(dec) in debt 5,082.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

Common stock issuance (repurchase) 7,822.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other financing cash flows (24.2) 166.8 173.9 200.3

Cash flow from financing 7,115.5 166.8 (3,802.2) (4,151.2)

Total cash flow 15,842.0 10,852.1 4,645.0 6,285.7 Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data.

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.



Zoomlion (H): Outlook remains tough but valuation appears fair; upgrade to Neutral What happened Since we added Zoomlion (H) to our Sell list on April 24, 2015, (Restack: Rolling over TPs to 2016E; CNR/CSR A to Sell on valuation), the stock has fallen 29% vs. -13% for the Hang Seng Index. After the recent share price correction, Zoomlion (H) now trades at 2015E/2016E P/B of 0.6X/0.6X while delivering 2015/16E ROE of 0%/1%, vs. our China machinery coverage’s median at 1.1X/1.1X and 2%/3%, respectively.

We maintain our bearish view on the demand outlook for China’s construction machinery in 2015, given the still sluggish property new starts (Jan-May 2015 down 16% yoy), significant installed base of under-utilized equipment, and second-hand machinery cannibalizing the market share of new equipment sales. As such, we expect Zoomlion’s construction machinery business to remain weak with concrete/crane machinery sales each posting a 16%/31% decline in 2015E. While we do see potential in Zoomlion’s diversification into environmental project investment and operation, it will take time for the company to garner sufficient knowledge and develop its first sample project before fully entering this market. We also expect limited profit accretion from its agricultural machinery business consolidated in 1Q15, as Chery Heavy was running at close to breakeven in 2013/2014 according to management.

However, now trading at close to its historical trough EV/GCI of 0.8X, we think the previously mentioned downside risks have been factored in and, as a consequence, we upgrade Zoomlion (H) to Neutral from Sell, although we leave our 12-month target price unchanged at HK$4.3, , which implies 8% potential upside.

Current view Our 2015E/2016E/2017E EPS remain unchanged at Rmb0.00/Rmb0.06/Rmb0.07, -100%/-70%/-68% vs. IBES consensus.

Valuation We maintain our historical trough EV/GCI-based 12-month target price at HK$4.3 (historical trough EV/GCI remains at 0.8X).

Key risks Higher/lower-than-expected concrete machinery/crane revenue; stronger/weaker-than-expected cost control, faster/slower-than-expected environmental project investment and operation business development.

Growth

Returns *

Multiple


Multiple

Returns *

Growth

Investment Profile

Low High





Zoomlion (H) (1157.HK)


Key data Current

Price (HK$) 3.99

12 month price target (HK$) 4.30

Market cap (HK$ mn / US$ mn) 30,746.8 / 3,966.6


12/14 12/15E 12/16E 12/17E

EPS (Rmb) 0.08 0.00 0.06 0.07

EPS growth (%) (84.5) (99.2) 9,311.1 14.2

EPS (diluted) (Rmb) 0.08 0.00 0.06 0.07


P/E (X) 53.3 NM 54.0 47.3

P/B (X) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6

EV/EBITDA (X) 24.0 19.0 15.7 13.6

Dividend yield (%) 1.2 0.0 0.6 0.6

ROE (%) 1.4 0.0 1.1 1.3

CROCI (%) 5.0 3.1 3.8 4.1

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0





Absolute (37.8) (31.4) (14.6)

Rel. to Hang Seng Index (31.2) (32.8) (18.8)




Zoomlion H: Summary financials




SG&A (4,965.4) (3,622.3) (4,003.3) (4,368.3) Inventory 10,376.2 7,257.1 8,109.2 8,820.7

R&D 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other current assets 15,644.6 14,862.4 14,119.2 13,413.3

Other operating profit/(expense) (834.9) (1,897.6) (2,150.8) (2,340.2) Total current assets 74,082.0 72,429.0 76,713.0 80,669.3

EBITDA 2,055.9 1,813.4 2,144.8 2,388.8 Net PP&E 6,780.8 9,127.9 9,285.6 9,397.6

Depreciation & amortization (646.6) (744.6) (845.9) (891.7) Net intangibles 5,008.2 4,864.5 4,720.8 4,577.1

EBIT 1,409.3 1,068.8 1,298.9 1,497.1 Total investments 698.9 1,788.2 668.1 (554.4)

Interest income 487.9 424.3 654.8 532.4 Other long-term assets 7,188.1 4,381.3 3,734.4 3,152.2

Interest expense (1,325.6) (1,425.2) (1,425.2) (1,425.2) Total assets 93,758.0 92,590.9 95,122.0 97,241.8


Others 284.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Accounts payable 18,443.3 17,624.4 19,693.8 21,421.6

Pretax profits 863.1 75.5 536.5 612.6 Short-term debt 5,745.5 5,745.5 5,745.5 5,745.5

Income tax (235.3) (9.4) (67.1) (76.6) Other current liabilities 1,073.6 689.8 825.1 844.5

Minorities (33.8) (61.2) (13.4) (15.3) Total current liabilities 25,262.4 24,059.7 26,264.5 28,011.7

Long-term debt 25,925.0 25,925.0 25,925.0 25,925.0

Net income pre-preferred dividends 594.1 4.8 456.0 520.7 Other long-term liabilities 1,322.6 1,322.6 1,322.6 1,322.6

Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total long-term liabilities 27,247.6 27,247.6 27,247.6 27,247.6

Net income (pre-exceptionals) 594.1 4.8 456.0 520.7 Total liabilities 52,510.0 51,307.3 53,512.1 55,259.3


Net income 594.1 4.8 456.0 520.7 Preferred shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


EPS (basic, pre-except) (Rmb) 0.08 0.00 0.06 0.07 Minority interest 417.1 449.4 456.5 464.6



DPS (Rmb) 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.02


Free cash flow yield (%) (27.0) 33.0 1.8 3.6


Sales growth (32.9) (1.3) 12.1 9.1 CROCI (%) 5.0 3.1 3.8 4.1

EBITDA growth (58.2) (11.8) 18.3 11.4 ROE (%) 1.4 0.0 1.1 1.3

EBIT growth (67.6) (24.2) 21.5 15.3 ROA (%) 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.5

Net income growth (84.5) (99.2) NM 14.2 ROACE (%) 2.4 1.7 2.3 2.6

EPS growth (84.5) (99.2) 9,311.1 14.2 Inventory days 187.2 170.1 132.6 134.4



EBIT margin 5.5 4.2 4.5 4.8 Net debt/equity (%) 41.7 22.6 20.5 17.7

Interest cover - EBIT (X) 1.7 1.1 1.7 1.7


Net income pre-preferred dividends 594.1 4.8 456.0 520.7

D&A add-back 646.6 744.6 845.9 891.7 P/E (analyst) (X) 53.3 NM 54.0 47.3

Minorities interests add-back 33.8 61.2 13.4 15.3 P/B (X) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6

Net (inc)/dec working capital (10,983.4) 9,424.0 (774.4) (553.0) EV/EBITDA (X) 24.0 19.0 15.7 13.6

Other operating cash flow 2,018.8 993.4 762.4 884.4 EV/GCI (X) 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6

Cash flow from operations (7,690.1) 11,228.0 1,303.3 1,759.2 Dividend yield (%) 1.2 0.0 0.6 0.6

Capital expenditures (974.9) (2,948.0) (860.0) (860.0)

Acquisitions (2,718.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0


Others 1,082.2 1,006.3 1,128.0 1,230.9

Cash flow from investments (2,611.4) (1,941.7) 268.0 370.9

Dividends paid (common & pref) (1,155.9) (385.3) (1.5) (136.8)

Inc/(dec) in debt 10,579.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

Common stock issuance (repurchase) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other financing cash flows (1,296.2) (1,029.8) (776.7) (900.0)

Cash flow from financing 8,127.5 (1,415.1) (778.1) (1,036.8)

Total cash flow (2,174.0) 7,871.1 793.2 1,093.3 Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data.




ZMJ: Upgrade to Neutral post underperformance What happened Since we added Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery (ZMJ) to our Sell list on April 24, 2015, (Restack: Rolling over TPs to 2016E; CNR/CSR A to Sell on valuation), the stock has fallen 35% vs. -17% for the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 Index. After the recent share price correction, ZMJ now trades at 2015E/2016E P/B of 1.2X/1.1X while delivering 2015E/2016E ROE of 2%/3%, vs. our China machinery coverage’s median at 1.1X/1.1X and 2%/3%, respectively.

We continue to expect weak topline growth despite ZMJ’s strong market position (#1 in hydraulic roof support) as we have not seen any signs of recovery in coal mining capex: Jan-May 2015 coal mining FAI declined 15% yoy while 12-month rolling coal mining FAI yoy deteriorated from -10% in Dec. 2014 to -12% in May 2015. Intense competition and potential impairments, due to weak end users’ return amid a sluggish coal price environment, are likely to weigh on ZMJ’s margins too, in our view. Now trading at close to its historical trough EV/GCI of 1.0X, we think the previously mentioned downside risks have been factored in and, as a consequence, we upgrade ZMJ to Neutral from Sell, although we leave our 12-month target price unchanged at Rmb6.6, which implies 3% potential downside.

Current view Our 2015E/2016E/2017E EPS remain unchanged at Rmb0.12/Rmb0.15/Rmb0.17, +5%/-25%/-19% vs. IBES consensus.

Valuation We maintain our historical trough EV/GCI-based 12-month target price at Rmb6.6 (historical trough EV/GCI remains at 1.0X).

Key risks Higher/lower-than-expected hydraulic roof support revenue growth and better/worse-than-expected cost control.

Growth

Returns *

Multiple


Multiple

Returns *

Growth

Investment Profile

Low High





Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery (601717.SS)


Key data Current

Price (Rmb) 6.80

12 month price target (Rmb) 6.60

Market cap (Rmb mn / US$ mn) 11,023.6 / 1,775.5


12/14 12/15E 12/16E 12/17E

EPS (Rmb) 0.13 0.12 0.15 0.17

EPS growth (%) (76.3) (7.0) 30.0 11.6

EPS (diluted) (Rmb) 0.13 0.12 0.15 0.17


P/E (X) 47.2 57.8 44.4 39.8

P/B (X) 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1

EV/EBITDA (X) 26.4 28.2 23.0 20.6

Dividend yield (%) 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8

ROE (%) 2.2 2.0 2.6 2.8

CROCI (%) 7.3 3.1 3.7 3.9

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0





Absolute (28.8) (9.7) 45.0

Rel. to Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 (22.1) (17.8) (20.1)




ZMJ: Summary financials




SG&A (415.9) (394.8) (398.9) (432.1) Inventory 1,449.2 1,524.2 1,568.7 1,577.7

R&D (180.0) (180.0) (180.0) (180.0) Other current assets 848.7 848.7 848.7 848.7

Other operating profit/(expense) (372.9) (359.7) (362.2) (383.0) Total current assets 9,018.1 9,324.8 9,679.9 10,082.8

EBITDA 286.2 305.8 369.8 405.6 Net PP&E 1,720.0 1,575.3 1,460.5 1,344.8

Depreciation & amortization (178.1) (189.8) (193.1) (197.6) Net intangibles 404.3 389.2 374.2 359.2

EBIT 108.0 115.9 176.7 208.0 Total investments 829.1 879.1 929.1 979.1

Interest income 56.5 47.4 53.1 55.2 Other long-term assets 220.8 220.8 220.8 220.8

Interest expense (8.0) (6.3) (6.3) (6.3) Total assets 12,192.2 12,389.2 12,664.5 12,986.7


Others 18.4 15.0 15.0 15.0 Accounts payable 2,375.9 2,445.3 2,554.7 2,691.8

Pretax profits 232.6 222.0 288.5 321.9 Short-term debt 97.2 97.2 97.2 97.2

Income tax (39.3) (37.1) (48.2) (53.8) Other current liabilities 89.9 89.9 89.9 89.9

Minorities 11.9 6.0 7.8 8.7 Total current liabilities 2,563.0 2,632.4 2,741.8 2,878.9

Long-term debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net income pre-preferred dividends 205.2 190.9 248.1 276.8 Other long-term liabilities 45.4 45.4 45.4 45.4

Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total long-term liabilities 45.4 45.4 45.4 45.4

Net income (pre-exceptionals) 205.2 190.9 248.1 276.8 Total liabilities 2,608.4 2,677.8 2,787.2 2,924.3


Net income 205.2 190.9 248.1 276.8 Preferred shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0





DPS (Rmb) 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05




Sales growth (24.0) (1.5) 4.8 5.8 CROCI (%) 7.3 3.1 3.7 3.9

EBITDA growth (74.1) 6.9 20.9 9.7 ROE (%) 2.2 2.0 2.6 2.8

EBIT growth (88.6) 7.3 52.5 17.7 ROA (%) 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.2

Net income growth (76.3) (7.0) 30.0 11.6 ROACE (%) 2.2 2.1 2.8 3.1

EPS growth (76.3) (7.0) 30.0 11.6 Inventory days 111.7 108.9 108.4 104.7



EBIT margin 1.8 1.9 2.8 3.1 Net debt/equity (%) (23.7) (26.3) (26.9) (27.8)

Interest cover - EBIT (X) NM NM NM NM


Net income pre-preferred dividends 205.2 190.9 248.1 276.8

D&A add-back 178.1 189.8 193.1 197.6 P/E (analyst) (X) 47.2 57.8 44.4 39.8

Minorities interests add-back (11.9) (6.0) (7.8) (8.7) P/B (X) 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1

Net (inc)/dec working capital (429.2) 49.1 (141.9) (131.7) EV/EBITDA (X) 26.4 28.2 23.0 20.6

Other operating cash flow 244.7 (91.1) (96.8) (98.9) EV/GCI (X) 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0

Cash flow from operations 186.9 332.8 194.7 235.2 Dividend yield (%) 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8

Capital expenditures (24.9) (30.2) (63.2) (66.9)

Acquisitions (252.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0


Others 47.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

Cash flow from investments (229.4) (30.2) (63.2) (66.9)

Dividends paid (common & pref) (269.0) (57.3) (74.4) (83.0)

Inc/(dec) in debt (38.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0


Other financing cash flows 62.3 41.1 46.8 48.9

Cash flow from financing (245.6) (16.2) (27.7) (34.2)

Total cash flow (288.1) 286.4 103.8 134.1 Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data.




CMEC: Summary financials




SG&A (1,649.4) (1,831.3) (2,196.2) (2,420.3) Inventory 260.0 286.9 346.8 387.1

R&D -- -- -- -- Other current assets 4,470.6 3,821.0 3,911.7 3,966.9

Other operating profit/(expense) 48.5 (83.4) (101.4) (79.7) Total current assets 31,447.4 33,920.9 37,386.2 38,826.8

EBITDA 2,231.6 1,985.2 2,581.8 2,988.0 Net PP&E 701.7 941.5 1,229.5 1,541.4

Depreciation & amortization (82.1) (98.2) (113.5) (132.1) Net intangibles 1,753.8 1,739.4 1,731.2 1,726.7

EBIT 2,149.5 1,887.1 2,468.3 2,855.8 Total investments 307.2 362.2 1,542.2 3,967.2

Interest income 717.7 879.0 892.0 914.4 Other long-term assets 3,013.2 3,204.9 3,617.9 4,042.4

Interest expense (33.2) (38.6) (38.0) (37.4) Total assets 37,223.3 40,168.8 45,506.9 50,104.4


Others (95.9) 74.4 (38.4) (74.1) Accounts payable 13,764.1 15,206.7 18,729.1 21,291.4

Pretax profits 2,738.1 2,806.9 3,413.9 4,033.8 Short-term debt 205.7 205.7 205.7 205.7

Income tax (641.9) (658.0) (800.3) (945.6) Other current liabilities 9,509.9 9,689.2 9,898.9 10,039.4

Minorities 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 Total current liabilities 23,479.7 25,101.6 28,833.7 31,536.6

Long-term debt 359.8 359.8 359.8 359.8

Net income pre-preferred dividends 2,096.9 2,149.6 2,614.5 3,089.1 Other long-term liabilities 330.3 363.3 399.6 439.6

Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total long-term liabilities 690.1 723.1 759.4 799.4

Net income (pre-exceptionals) 2,096.9 2,149.6 2,614.5 3,089.1 Total liabilities 24,169.8 25,824.7 29,593.1 32,336.0


Net income 2,096.9 2,149.6 2,614.5 3,089.1 Preferred shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0





DPS (Rmb) 0.20 0.21 0.25 0.30




Sales growth 7.4 7.6 21.6 11.7 CROCI (%) 22.1 19.5 20.6 19.9

EBITDA growth 9.2 (11.0) 30.0 15.7 ROE (%) 16.9 15.7 17.3 18.4

EBIT growth 9.5 (12.2) 30.8 15.7 ROA (%) 6.1 5.6 6.1 6.5

Net income growth 7.0 2.5 21.6 18.2 ROACE (%) (47.3) (31.4) (34.6) (47.9)

EPS growth 7.0 2.5 21.6 18.2 Inventory days 4.5 4.8 4.6 4.7



EBIT margin 9.3 7.6 8.2 8.5 Net debt/equity (%) (132.0) (137.7) (137.3) (123.4)

Interest cover - EBIT (X) NM NM NM NM


Net income pre-preferred dividends 2,096.9 2,149.6 2,614.5 3,089.1

D&A add-back 82.1 98.2 113.5 132.1 P/E (analyst) (X) 8.0 10.6 8.7 7.4

Minorities interests add-back (0.7) (0.7) (0.9) (1.0) P/B (X) 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.3

Net (inc)/dec working capital 2,385.7 835.7 2,036.0 980.6 EV/EBITDA (X) NM 1.5 0.4 0.3

Other operating cash flow (453.2) (687.5) (848.1) (1,108.0) EV/GCI (X) NM 0.2 0.1 0.1

Cash flow from operations 4,110.8 2,395.3 3,915.0 3,092.9 Dividend yield (%) 5.0 3.8 4.6 5.4

Capital expenditures (300.8) (323.5) (393.3) (439.5)

Acquisitions (50.2) (50.0) (1,050.0) (2,050.0)


Others (53.1) 649.6 (90.7) (55.2)

Cash flow from investments (290.5) 276.0 (1,534.0) (2,544.7)

Dividends paid (common & pref) (783.9) (859.8) (1,045.8) (1,235.7)

Inc/(dec) in debt 251.6 0.0 0.0 0.0


Other financing cash flows (4.5) 713.2 763.9 786.6

Cash flow from financing (536.8) (146.6) (281.9) (449.0)

Total cash flow 3,242.3 2,528.5 2,091.5 87.7 Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data.




信息披露附录申明本人，杜茜，在此申明，本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了本人对上述公司或其证券的个人看法。此外，本人薪金的任何部分不曾与，不与，也将不会与本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点直接或间接相关。

投资摘要投资摘要部分通过将一只股票的主要指标与其行业和市场相比较来评价该股的投资环境。所描述的四个主要指标包括增长、回报、估值倍数和波动性。增长、回报和估值倍数都是运用数种方法综合计算而成，以确

定该股在地区研究行业内所处的百分位排名。

每项指标的准确计算方式可能随着财务年度、行业和所属地区的不同而有所变化，但标准方法如下：

增长是下一年预测与当前年度预测的综合比较，如每股盈利、EBITDA 和收入等。回报是各项资本回报指标一年预测的加总，如 CROCI、平均运用资本回报率和净资产回报率。估值倍数根据一年预期估值比率综

合计算，如市盈率、股息收益率、EV/FCF、EV/EBITDA、EV/DACF、市净率。波动性根据 12个月的历史波动性计算并经股息调整。

Quantum Quantum 是提供具体财务报表数据历史、预测和比率的高盛专有数据库，它可以用于对单一公司的深入分析，或在不同行业和市场的公司之间进行比较。

GS SUSTAIN GS SUSTAIN是侧重于长期做多建议的相对稳定的全球投资策略。GS SUSTAIN关注名单涵盖了我们认为相对于全球同业具有持续竞争优势和出色的资本回报、因而有望在长期内表现出色的行业领军企业。我们

对领军企业的筛选基于对以下三方面的量化分析：现金投资的现金回报、行业地位和管理水平（公司管理层对行业面临的环境、社会和企业治理方面管理的有效性）。

信息披露

相关的股票研究范围杜茜：中国资本品、亚太基础设施行业。

亚太基础设施行业：中交建(A)、中交建(H)、中国机械工程、中国铁建(A)、中国铁建(H)、中国中铁(A)、中国中铁(H)、中国建筑国际、中石化炼化工程。

中国资本品：中国中车(A)、中国中车(H)、柳工、海天国际、合力、和利时、龙工、三一重工、三一国际、新时达、山推、汇川技术、机器人、天地科技、长飞光纤、郑煤机、南车时代电气、中联重科(A)、中联重

科(H)。

与公司有关的法定披露以下信息披露了高盛高华证券有限责任公司（“高盛高华”）与北京高华证券有限责任公司（“高华证券”）投资研究部所研究的并在本研究报告中提及的公司之间的关系。

没有对下述公司的具体信息披露：中交建(A) (Rmb18.35)、中交建(H) (HK$10.62)、中国机械工程 (HK$6.71)、中国铁建(A) (Rmb19.17)、中国铁建(H) (HK$10.88)、中国中铁(A) (Rmb14.97)、中国中铁(H) (HK$7.50)、中国建筑国际 (HK$12.52)、中国中车(A) (Rmb19.46)、中国中车(H) (HK$10.76)、柳工 (Rmb9.66)、合力 (Rmb13.75)、龙工 (HK$1.31)、三一重工 (Rmb7.29)、三一国际 (HK$1.96)、山推 (Rmb6.31)、中石化炼化工程 (HK$6.88)、天地科技 (Rmb14.53)、郑煤机 (Rmb7.48)、南车时代电气 (HK$55.30)、中联重科(A) (Rmb6.52)、中联重科(H) (HK$4.23)

公司评级、研究行业及评级和相关定义买入、中性、卖出：分析师建议将评为买入或卖出的股票纳入地区投资名单。一只股票在投资名单中评为买入或卖出由其相对于所属研究行业的潜在回报决定。任何未获得买入或卖出评级的股票均被视为中性评

级。每个地区投资评估委员会根据 25-35%的股票评级为买入、10-15%的股票评级为卖出的全球指导原则来管理该地区的投资名单；但是，在某一特定行业买入和卖出评级的分布可能根据地区投资评估委员会的决

定而有所不同。地区强力买入或卖出名单是以潜在回报规模或实现回报的可能性为主要依据的投资建议。

潜在回报：代表当前股价与一定时间范围内预测目标价格之差。分析师被要求对研究范围内的所有股票给出目标价格。潜在回报、目标价格及相关时间范围在每份加入投资名单或重申维持在投资名单的研究报告中

都有注明。

研究行业及评级：分析师给出下列评级中的其中一项代表其根据行业历史基本面及／或估值对研究对象的投资前景的看法。具吸引力(A)：未来 12个月内投资前景优于研究范围的历史基本面及／或估值。中性(N)：未来 12个月内投资前景相对研究范围的历史基本面及／或估值持平。谨慎(C)：未来 12个月内投资前景劣于研究范围的历史基本面及／或估值。

暂无评级(NR)：在高盛高华于涉及该公司的一项合并交易或战略性交易中担任咨询顾问时并在某些其他情况下，投资评级和目标价格已经根据高华证券的政策予以除去。暂停评级(RS)：由于缺乏足够的基础去确定

投资评级或价格目标，或在发表报告方面存在法律、监管或政策的限制，我们已经暂停对这种股票给予投资评级和价格目标。此前对这种股票作出的投资评级和价格目标(如有的话)将不再有效，因此投资者不应依

赖该等资料。暂停研究(CS)：我们已经暂停对该公司的研究。没有研究(NC)：我们没有对该公司进行研究。不存在或不适用(NA)：此资料不存在或不适用。无意义(NM)：此资料无意义，因此不包括在报告内。



一般披露本报告在中国由高华证券分发。高华证券具备证券投资咨询业务资格。

本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用。本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息，但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性，客户也不应该依赖该信息是准确和完整的。我们会适时地更新我们的研究，但各种

规定可能会阻止我们这样做。除了一些定期出版的行业报告之外，绝大多数报告是在分析师认为适当的时候不定期地出版。

高盛高华为高华证券的关联机构，从事投资银行业务。高华证券、高盛高华及它们的关联机构与本报告中涉及的大部分公司保持着投资银行业务和其它业务关系。

我们的销售人员、交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略。我们的资产管理部门、自营交易部和投资业务部可能会做出与本

报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策。

本报告中署名的分析师可能已经与包括高华证券销售人员和交易员在内的我们的客户讨论，或在本报告中讨论交易策略，其中提及可能会对本报告讨论的证券市场价格产生短期影响的推动因素或事件，该影响在方

向上可能与分析师发布的股票目标价格相反。任何此类交易策略都区别于且不影响分析师对于该股的基本评级，此类评级反映了某只股票相对于报告中描述的研究范围内股票的回报潜力。

高华证券及其关联机构、高级职员、董事和雇员，不包括股票分析师和信贷分析师，将不时地对本研究报告所涉及的证券或衍生工具持有多头或空头头寸，担任上述证券或衍生工具的交易对手，或买卖上述证券或

衍生工具。

在高盛组织的会议上的第三方演讲嘉宾（包括高华证券或高盛其它部门人员）的观点不一定反映全球投资研究部的观点，也并非高华证券或高盛的正式观点。

在任何要约出售股票或征求购买股票要约的行为为非法的地区，本报告不构成该等出售要约或征求购买要约。本报告不构成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需求。客户应考虑本

报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，以及(若有必要)寻求专家的意见，包括税务意见。本报告中提及的投资价格和价值以及这些投资带来的收入可能会波动。过去的表现并不代表未来的表现，未来的回

报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。

某些交易，包括牵涉期货、期权和其它衍生工具的交易，有很大的风险，因此并不适合所有投资者。外汇汇率波动有可能对某些投资的价值或价格或来自这一投资的收入产生不良影响。

投资者可以向高华销售代表取得或通过 http://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp取得当前的期权披露文件。对于包含多重期权买卖的期权策略结构产品，例如，期权差价结构产品，其交易成本

可能较高。与交易相关的文件将根据要求提供。

所有研究报告均以电子出版物的形式刊登在高华客户网上并向所有客户同步提供。高华未授权任何第三方整合者转发其研究报告。有关某特定证券的研究报告、模型或其它数据，请联络您的销售代表。

北京高华证券有限责任公司版权所有 © 2015 年

未经北京高华证券有限责任公司事先书面同意，本材料的任何部分均不得(i)以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品，或(ii)再次分发。

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