icic 2016: examining funding data to predict the future of research

Examining Funding Data to Predict the Future of ResearchDr. Tom Lickiss

A portfolio company of

Overview

• Introduction to ÜberResearch

• The Research Timeline

• Aggregating and Exploring Research Funding data

• Staying at the Cutting Edge, and Predicting the Future

• Integrating data sources - moving towards the complete picture


A team of developers, scientists and experts with more than 10 years experience delivering solutions and services for funding and research institutions.


A team of developers, scientists and experts with more than 10 years experience delivering solutions and services for funding and research institutions.

Portfolio company of Digital Science,

the younger sibling of the Nature

Publishing group.


The Research Timeline


From Idea to Impact (Inputs and Outputs)

Idea

Citations

Publications

and Patents


Idea

Grant

Application

Grant

Awarded

Conference

Publications

and Patents

Citations



1 – 5 years 2 – 3 years

Idea

Grant

Application

Grant

Awarded

Conference

Citations

3 - 8 years of relative darkness


Publications

and Patents


1 – 5 years 2 – 3 years

Idea

Grant

Application

Grant

Awarded

Conference

Citations

Publications and citations are very useful to tell you what has happened. Grants tell you what is happening and what will happen.

3 - 8 years of relative darkness


Publications

and Patents


The Research Landscape

What does research funding look like?



We help the research and funding communities understand what is going on in

research globally, and how they are involved in it.



Aggregating and Exploring Research Funding data


Millions of Projects, at over a trillion US Dollars, from hundreds of research funders around the World.

We collect, clean, and disambiguate data from hundreds of sources in order to develop a body of data that can be instantly functional.


Grants Publications

Content Consolidation NLP

Disambiguation Document Matching

The Data Principle


Grants Publications

Person and institution disambiguation

Internal Data

The Data Principle


Grants Publications


Internal Data

The Data Principle

Grants Publications


Internal Data


Grants Publications


Internal Data


Document Matching

The Data Principle

Grants Publications


Internal Data

Machine Learning


Grants Publications


Internal Data


Document Matching

The Data Principle

Grants Publications


Internal Data

Search Trend AnalysisPortfolio Analysis /

Comparison

ÜberWizard for ORCID

Machine Learning

This approach then gives us the ability to interrogate the data in any desired way.


Comparisons and Trends

See topic trends over time




Who are the main funders?




Who are the main funders?

Which Institutions are receiving the funding?


Landscape Analysis – Brexit!

With the data disambiguated and searchable by any parameter, landscape analysis is extremely simple.

A report on the potential effects of Brexit, before the vote, became a major source of predictive information after it.

Availability of information is now helping institutions predict how Brexit might affect them.


Using Research Funding to Look into the Future


Looking into the Future

Approximately 10% of our data details either on-going projects, or projects which have not yet started.

This means the nature of the data itself is forward-looking, and it will be the first place where new trends in research will be evidenced.

Importantly, it is also a different type of information. It is describing what is intended, rather than what has already happened.


A Topic Example - Optogenetics

The science of using light to control the electrical activity of neural cells or to use light as an indicator of neural activity. This is commonly done using proteins introduced using genetic techniques.


Optogenetics

Papers

Oct. 2006 – First paper published usingthe word optogenetic (with Miesenböckas one author).

Funded Projects

Sept. 2003 – NIDA funds a project byGero Miesenböck entitled “GeneticallyEncoded Phototriggers of NeuronalActivity”.

Nov. 2007 – First funded project in theDimensions database which contains theword optogenetic – from the BBSRC inthe UK.

The appearance of the key optogenetic protein “channelrhodopsin” in funded projects and publications over time. If only the publications could be seen, would this give the same impression?


Optopatch Timeline of Key Events

Papers Funded Projects

A continuation of optogenetics enabling complete activation and recording from electrical cells using only light and recording with super high frame per second speeds.

April 2014 – NINDS funds project forOptopatch starting in April 2014 to finishMarch 2016.

June 2014 – Hochbaum et al. publishOptopatch method in Nature Methods(online version).


Optopatch Timeline of Key Events


A continuation of optogenetics enabling complete activation and recording from electrical cells using only light and recording with super high frame per second speeds.

April 2014 – NINDS funds project forOptopatch starting in April 2014 to finishMarch 2016.

June 2014 – Hochbaum et al. publishOptopatch method in Nature Methods(online version).

Nov. 2014 – NHLBI funds project for samegroup for applying the technology to heartcells assay for cardiotoxicity testing.

No further papers yet published on thistopic.

?


Brainbow

A method to cause cells to become fluorescent in many different colours so that their shapes and connections to other cells can be more easily examined.

Weissman, Lichtman and Sanes, 2007.


Brainbow Timeline of Key Events


Nov. 2007 - Original technical Brainbowpaper published by Livet et al.





2008 – Three grants awarded including the word “Brainbow”. Two from NIMH and NINDS to the original Brainbow group at Harvard, and a third from The Royal Society to work at UCL in UK





2008 – Three grants awarded including the word “Brainbow”. Two from NIMH and NINDS to the original Brainbow group at Harvard, and a third from The Royal Society to work at UCL in UKNov. 2009 - First primary research paper

published using Brainbow technology.

2011 - Eleven papers published based on Brainbow technology.






published using Brainbow technology.2009 – NINDS award grant to the Sanes Lab for the development of the “Next Generation of Brainbow Transgenes for Neural Circuit Analysis”. This was one of five grants including the word “Brainbow” from 2009.







published using Brainbow technology.2009 – NINDS award grant to the Sanes Lab for the development of the “Next Generation of Brainbow Transgenes for Neural Circuit Analysis”. This was one of five grants including the word “Brainbow” from 2009.

June 2013 - Sanes Lab publishes “Improved tools for the Brainbow toolbox” paper in Nature Methods – relating to work funded



“siRNA”

Comparing Trends in DataTechnologies or research areas which are reducing in size can be seen as a drop in funding before a potential drop in publications – and new technologies can be seen to rise.


Comparing Trends in DataTechnologies or research areas which are reducing in size can be seen as a drop in funding before a potential drop in publications – and new technologies can be seen to rise.

“siRNA”

“CRISPR”


Confirming Expectations, or Making Discoveries?

Zika Virus Funding in the last 10 years


Confirming Expectations, or Making Discoveries?

Zika Virus Funding in the last 10 years

Of course, with these examples you need to know what to look for.

However, using Natural Language Processing and analysis of key term frequencies, we are now starting to do automatic identification of new trends.


Integrating data sources - moving towards a more complete picture

Patents & Patent

Applications

Publications

Grants

Data

Clinical Trials

Other databases

Platform Data

Researcher

Activities

Institutional

Structure

Grant

Applications

University Data

Progress

Reports

Grant

Applications

Funder Data

Base Data Enrichment Processes Enriched Data

Funding data as part of the bigger picture

ReferenceExtraction

Categorization

OrganizationExtraction

ResearcherDisambiguation

Patents & Patent

Applications

Publications

Grants

Data

Clinical Trials

Other databases

Platform Data

Researcher

Activities

Institutional

Structure

Grant

Applications

University Data

Progress

Reports

Grant

Applications

Funder Data

ConceptExtraction



ReferenceExtraction

Categorization

OrganizationExtraction

ResearcherDisambiguation

Patents & Patent

Applications

Concepts

Publications

Grants

Data

Clinical Trials

Other databases

Platform Data

Researcher

Activities

Institutional

Structure

Grant

Applications

University Data

Progress

Reports

Grant

Applications

Funder Data

Researchers

Organizations

Classifications

References Metrics

ConceptExtraction




The Complete Picture

Funded Research Project

Research Undertaken

Patents and Publications

Citations, awareness in

the field

New applications for funding

Funding is of course only one piece of the

puzzle – but an important piece!

Funded Research Projects are the last major piece of the research process puzzle, but when

used effectively can be hugely

informative about the direction of things to come.

Thank [email protected]

www.uberresearch.com

icic 2016: examining funding data to predict the future of research

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