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Four Scenarios for the Next Decade

Atul DigheFuturist

The Impossible Comeback Scenario

• Oracle Team USA wins the America’s Cup in one of the greatest comebacks in sports history

• Superior technology, data gathering and talent was almost beat by a lack of scenario planning

• Understanding our biases and assumptions are critical to winning in the future

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Our Biases Get in the Way• Normalcy Bias: “That will never happen…”

• Recency Bias: “I just heard about…”

• Confirmation Bias: “See, I knew I was right all along…”

• Status Quo Bias: “The more things change, the more they stay the same…”

We make assumptions that need to be challenged. We assume…• The past is a strong predictor of the future

• Logic and data will prevail over emotions

• More data and insights will drive better decisions

• Changes in consumer preferences will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary

• Trends under way today will continue on their current trajectory and at their current speed

Four Versions of the Year 2030

Images, clockwise from top left: OxfamBlogs.org; Wikipedia.org; CEB; Solarpedia.com

#FOMO

The Great DivideGlobal elites continue to thrive, with access to the highest-quality nutrition, healthcare, education and business opportunities, while the middle class rapidly slides into a massive social-economic recession.

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Smart Tech, Dumb Society

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Despite dramatic technological advances in inter-device connectivity, robotics and life sciences, our ability to actually derive value from “big data” is very limited — the promise of the Internet of Things making our lives better never materializes.

Off the GridDistributed power generation and advances in power storage along with ubiquitous wireless high-speed Internet access and self-sustainable food production allow entire communities to thrive completely “off the grid.”

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YOLO, FOMO, JOMOGenerational and social/economic cohorts yield to three distinct types of consumers: those who embrace the YOLO mentality and are willing to take on debt and consume beyond their means; those who have a very real FOMO and are continually seeking to stay on trend and exclusively follow the wisdom of the crowds; and those who purposely embrace JOMO and a voluntarily simplistic lifestyle.

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#FOMO

Are we asking ourselves the tough questions about the future?“When information truly is ubiquitous, when reach and connectivity are completely global, when computing resources are infinite, and when a whole new set of impossibilities are not only possible, but happening, what will that do to our business?”Jonathan Rosenberg, head of the innovation portfolio at Google

“What one word do we want to own in the minds of our customers, employees and partners?” Matthew May, author and innovation expert 

“What is something you believe that nearly no one agrees with you on?”Peter Thiel, partner, Founders Fund and co-founder of PayPal

Are we asking ourselves the tough questions about the future?• Assume you’re able to ask a fortune teller three questions about

2030. What information would you seek? What are three things you know for certain and do not need to ask the fortune teller?

• What biases and assumptions about the future does our leadership team currently hold that need to be challenged to guide us to success between now and 2030?

• What biases and assumptions about the future do you currently hold that need to be challenged to guide us to success between now and 2030?

Questions?

The final and most important question:

What will you do differently as a result of attending Iconosphere 2014?