iea-sbc buildings model · sustainable buildings centre project sbc project: cutting energy use in...
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IEA-SBC Buildings Model
Aurélien SAUSSAY
International Energy Agency
IEA-SBC Rome Workshop June 11th, 2012
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What are the priorities of policy-makers?
In IEA member countries:
“Green growth”
Job creations
Fuel poverty
Energy security
Environmental impact mitigation
In emerging economies:
Construction of a large number of new buildings
Limit need for the construction of new power plants
Improve energy access
How can energy efficiency in the buildings sector (EEB) address these priorities?
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What is actually happening in the field in the buildings sector
Governments have enacted national or supra-national targets
In the field, weak energy requirements
Non-holistic, non-energy related retrofits
Non-stringent energy requirements for new buildings
Discrepancy between top-level targets and field reality
Energy issues in buildings are complex
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Building Energy Codes
S&L Buildings
Users S&L Equipment
Built Environt Building Types
Energy Efficiency Action Plan
Urban
Planning
Policies
Health
Jobs
Taxes
Energy security
Climate change
Climate
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Sustainable Buildings Centre Project
SBC project: Cutting energy use in the buildings sector by 2050
Analyze current buildings energy efficiency policies
Design a database of building energy efficiency policies (BEEP), available on the SBC website
Build a model to develop scenarios that answer policy-makers’ priorities through BEEPs
Develop policy advice based on model outputs for policy-makers
Scope
IEA member countries
BRICS
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Policy scenarios
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Scenario 1: Business as Usual
All scenarios share the same macroeconomic and technical progress hypotheses
Scenarios are differentiated by the way retrofits are conducted
Scenario 1: Business as Usual
Retrofits are only conducted according to the lifecycle renovation
One building element is replaced at a time
No holistic approach to retrofit the whole building
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Scenario 2: Savings lock-in
In this scenario, countries go through with their current retrofit projects
Ex: France will retrofit up to 1 million dwellings by 2017
Every retrofit is usually element-based
Countries do impose a mandatory retrofit rate on the building stock, but in practice, building elements are replaced one at a time
Once a building is retrofit, no further improvements for at least two decades
Energy savings become locked in
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Scenario 3: Long term strategy
In this scenario, we consider the countries’ energy reduction targets by 2020 or 2030
We aim to determine the mandatory retrofit rates necessary to achieve countries’ energy reduction targets
Every retrofit is conducted over the whole building at the techno-economic optimum
Combination of technologies that will deliver the most energy savings for the least cost over the life-cycle of the building
Hypotheses considered will include different retrofit rates for different building segments
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Policy scenario summary
Scenario 1
No policy intervention
Element-based retrofits
Scenario 2
Policy intervention
Element-based retrofits
Savings lock-in
Scenario 3
Policy intervention
Holistic retrofits
Long-term strategy
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Model structure
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Building stock representation: a set of cells
Geography x Climate zones x Vintage x Building Type
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Cell structure
There is a cell for each combination of:
Geographical region
Climate zone
Vintage
Building type (segment)
Each cell is represented by
A reference building
A number of equivalent buildings in the cell that represent the total floor area covered by this cell
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Reference building
Each reference building is described by:
Physical characteristics
Floor area, number of floors if relevant
Thermal characteristics of the envelope (U-Values)
Technical characteristics of the HVAC systems (including hot water)
Appliances (excluding HVAC systems)
Number of appliances
Distribution of technologies for appliances
Lighting
Lighting service demand (lumen / sqm)
Distribution of technologies for lighting
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Energy consumption of a cell
Space heating and cooling
Thermal simulation on the cell’s reference building, in the cell’s climate zone, based on HVAC efficiencies
Appliances
Average energy use for the appliance stock of the cell’s reference building, using efficiencies of appliances technologies
Lighting
Average lighting energy use for the cell’s reference building, using efficiencies of lighting technologies
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Evolution of the stock
For each iteration
Demolitions
The number of buildings in the cell is decreased at a fixed demolition rate
New buildings:
A new cell is created with a reference building defined according to the then-current building energy codes (if that “current building energy codes” cell already exists, then just increase its number of equivalent buildings)
The number of buildings in the new cell is defined by a fixed construction rate
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Evolution of the stock (2)
Retrofits
In each cell, the reference building is retrofit at the techno-economic optimum level using a holistic approach
Based on a database of technologies’ technical characteristics and costs, the techno-economic optimum is found by exploring the possible combinations of technologies for the reference building
The combination of technologies with the best energy performance to lifecycle cost ratio is chosen
A new cell is created with the newly retrofit reference building
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Model outputs
Energy savings
CO2 emissions reduction
Investment needs
Man-hours resulting from retrofits
Jobs supported
Increased tax receipts
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Available data
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Aggregate data
Energy consumption by end-uses available for 18 IEA member countries in the residential sector
Total floor area in the residential and services sectors available for all IEA member countries
Floor area, number of dwellings, energy consumption by building types available in EU27 (ODYSEE database)
Partnerships with US National Labs to obtain building stock and energy consumption data for China and India
Contact with Russian Energy Agency to obtain building stock and energy consumption data
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Reference buildings
TABULA project (European Commission)
Covers 14 EU member states
Provides reference buildings for each building type and vintage in the residential sector
Floor area and number of buildings provided for each (vintage x building type) pair
Physical characteristics of the envelope and HVAC technical characteristics provided for each reference building
In other countries
Use surveys of the building stock Ex: RECS in the US
Buildings certificates database (ex: Ireland)
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Thank you for your attention
www.sustainablebuildingscentre.org