風力発電の財務コストに 関する各国の事例研究

ワークパッケージ１ 最終報告書

日本語版 独立行政法人 産業技術総合研究所 一般社団法人 日本電機工業会

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F3EH+ amp 268 (IEA Wind Task26)

H6GD13E7

IEA Wind Task 26

Multi-national Case Study of the Financial Cost of Wind Energy

K =

2011) 30

Work Package 1 Final Report

March 2011

$ltL

Paul Schwabe National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Sander Lensink Energy Research Center of the Netherlands

Maureen Hand National Renewable Energy Laboratory

(9

Athanasia Arapogianni European Energy Association

Alberto Cena Spanish Wind Energy Association

Karlynn Cory National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Markus Geissmann Swiss Federal Office of Energy

Klaus Hammes Swiss Energy Agency

Stefan Luxembourg Energy Research Center of the Netherlands

Angeles Mora Sanchez Spanish Wind Energy Association

Edweard James-Smith Ea Energy Analyses

Jan Wallach Deutche WindGuard

Paul Wilczek European Energy Association

The IEA Wind agreement also known as the Implementing Agreement for cooperation in the Research Development and Deployment of Wind Energy Systems functions within a framework created by the International Energy Agency (IEA) Views findings and publications of IEA Wind do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the IEA Secretariat or of all its individual member countries IEAŭsup2szligplusmnŭĒŬAHSĘĠŠĒ-ampatildesup2szligplusmn+$10+iexclŪ8MZ`oacuteŢ (IEA) ograveĥicircī)|oacuteij0plusmnľŀĘĠĭiacute-amp~ąĆAring+ IEAimicro+aĕŋiexclľŀ0THORNş2ĺ+

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International Energy Agency Wind Implementing Agreement Task 26 ldquoMulti-national Case Study of the Financial Cost of Wind Energyrdquo (March 2011) httpwwwieawindorgindex_page_postingstask26task202620wp20120reportpdf

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(LCOE) 9yacute6LCOE(ľIacuteƽŊƻ^lJEUh=N=aampƃ6GKUŴƈ9Łfrac12ampaacuteTHORNưŊƻƻƬampiquest frac34šiexcl6^lJEUthornIacuteƤƚTHORNĆ9Ƙńībrvbar2

Ō(LCOEampdeg0 LCOEƈţĊIJ(6ĚAgraveplusmnĒ(ĩ 2ƀŋƄƇ133+^lpP9ģƏ6

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EUampƱ6įưdivideƖIumlƄƇ9ƀ16 ĝ(AhmOYjDpœŝMmNp (ECN) LCOEthornIacute0ampƯŊK^kQVIpUamp

iquest CdQIelpcTj9ņ ECNcTj(sectƒfrac14GKUĤơ9ƽŊƻ^lJEUfrac14divideƖIumlƆĸ4ƀampņƌŭaacuteCdQIelpcTj6ĝ

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LCOE(Tm`pE 61fplMWhǀ85VjMWh 61kWhǁ4K=K 120fplMWhǀ167VjMWh 12 kWhǁ6brvbarij1 Ƌij 2

Ƌij 1 qźampČĚņƎ(Ŋƻņƞ~Aringamp12thornƣņǀĀİņƽƙŧuacuteņƽƙUcircŻ

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(LCOE) fplMWh VjMWh kWh

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aacuteŀ9Ʀ635poundŪƿĩƈňIWiAoacuteIJ(6[hbpNĆ9ĔOacuteƳampƌŭ

ŚszligampecircAEligśAEligĥŊƻLCOE9ETHďampĮƛ63amp6aringLCOEshyśƈţ(7ampņĊIJ2ģeuml9ĪŔampő6eacuteƃ5Įƛ133+Ƈƪ(ethƫampžė

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v

v h

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| 1 72NCtE 1

11 1 12 vu]k 1 13 CtO~FH 2 131 GKUƃū 132 copy=mMmSlt] 133 AringƧigrave 134 LCOEcTjƏĎ 135 cTjiquestĚŋGmM^U 136 LCOE FGƈţ 14 IDN6Ct 6 15 QK$4 s 6 16 JN$ZTLCOEIn4 6 17 LCOESNj 8 18 IDNm6Ct 11 19 9 LCOE]k 13 110 LECOEBXqj 13 111 14

| 2 $1+4 16

21 $1+4Ctf 16 211 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 212 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 22 $1+4 2008Wu13Ct) 19 221 ƶrƽŊƻ 222 ĴrƽŊƻ 223 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 224 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 23 $1+4Ct) 25

| 3 amp 28

31 ampCtf 28 311 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 312 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 32 ampu1363m6Ct) 30 321 ƶrƽŊƻ 322 ĴrƽŊƻ

vi

323 V=Rƶr^lJEUǀ2008THORNǁsectĺFpKGKUĮƛ 324 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 325 copy133+ăĂbBXLa 326 ƔDdQ^ 33 34

| 4 -1 36

41 -1Ctf 36 411 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 412 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 42 -1u13Ct) 37 421 ƶrƽŊƻ 422 ĴrƽŊƻ 43 -1Ct)McpY 39 431 AhmOƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ 432 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 433 copyăĂbBXLa 434 ƔDdQ^ 44 41

| 5 1 43

51 1Ctf 43 511 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 512 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 52 1 2008Wu13Ct) 46 521 ƶrƽŊƻ 522 ĴrƽŊƻ 523 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 524 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 525 ƔDdQ^ 53 1Ct) 50

| 6 4$1 52

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| 7 60

71 Ctf 59

vii

711 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 712 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 72 u13Ct) 60 721 ƶrƽŊƻ 722 ĴrƽŊƻ 73 Ct)McpY

61

731 GKUĮƛ 732 copyăĂbBXLa 733 ƔDdQ^ 73 63

| 8 N 65

81 NCtf 65 811 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 812 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 82 N 2008Wu13Ct) 66 821 ƶrƽŊƻ 822 ĴrƽŊƻ 823 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 824 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 825 ƔDdQ^ 83 NCt) 73

A Rr 76

viii

L5

ordm 1-1 ƽŊƻGKU ordm 1-2 ƔDdQ^ī6copy=mMmSlt]amp36ŊƻGKUŐĭ ordm 1-3 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14ŊƻƻƬǀƓżĐưǁ9sup2űĞ ordm 1-4 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14divideƖGKU9sup2űĞ ordm 1-5 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14Ƥƚųugraveƕ9sup2űĞ ordm 1-6 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14ƖƭƐƥGKU9sup2űĞ ordm 1-7 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14Ĥntildeƃū9sup2űĞ ordm 1-8 shyfrac14xƃGKU[hbpN LCOEacircƼ ordm 2-1 Tm`pEƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 2-2 TmsectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 2-3 Tm`pEƢŨGKUGKUƨcTj ordm 2-4 Tm`pEcopyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 3-1 V=RTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 3-2 V=RƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 3-3 V=RƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 4-1 AhmOTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 4-2 AhmOsectĺFpKĮƛordm ordm 4-3 AhmOƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 5-1 K_=mTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 5-2 ƅĈƭKCpathornř ordm 5-3 UacuteAacuteA^Igmamp136ĔŮǀUacuteAacuteĠǂAgraveEgraveƭǁ ordm 5-4 ƻyenUacuteAacuteamp136ƽŊƻETHƬǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 5-5 YacuteČƻ^pjĠAumlŀTHORNYacutefrac34ǀ2003Dž2009THORNǁ ordm 5-6 2008THORNampƊŵ7ƽƙH=LƋ ordm 5-7 K_=m133+sectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 5-8 K_=mcopy133+ƽŊƻąŢ=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 6-1 KgtpTmTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 6-2 KgtpTmƽŊƻGKU ordm 6-3 KgtpTmƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 7-1 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 7-2 K=KƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ ordm 7-3 K=KƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 8-1 Ŧfrac14THORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 8-2 Ŧfrac14133+sectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 8-3 Ŧfrac14copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ

ix

5

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ƀ 2-4 ƓżĐưampiquest FIT9deg0Z]ƿlpNŏatildeŊƻħETHƬʼn6 4ƽƙŐNtildeŋ ƀ 2-5 Tm`pEƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 2-6 Tm`pEƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 2-7 Tm`pEƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ƀ 2-8 2007THORN 2008THORNTm`pEamp136ƽŊƻ LCOE0 ƀ 3-1 V=RŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-2 V=RTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-3 V=RƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 3-4 V=RƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 3-5 V=RƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 3-6 V=RűĞ0 ƀ 4-1 AhmOŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-2 AhmOĪsup2THORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-3 AhmOƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 4-4 AhmOƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 4-5 AhmOƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 4-6 AhmOűĞ0 ƀ 5-1 K_=mŬŜƊŵƬ (GW) ƀ 5-2 K_=mTHORNưOgraveƬ (GW) ƀ 5-3 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 5-4 K_=mƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 5-5 K_=mƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 5-6 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEU0 ƀ 6-1 KgtpTmŬŜƊETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-2 KgtpTmTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-3 Lillgrunden^lJEU ƀ 6-4 KgtpTmƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 6-5 KgtpTmƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 6-6 KgtpTmƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

x

ƀ 6-7 KgtpTműĞ0

ƀ 7-1 K=KŬŜƊETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-2 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-3 ƖƭƐƥGKUƈţ

ƀ 7-4 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 7-5 K=KƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 7-6 K=KƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

ƀ 7-7 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEU0

ƀ 8-1 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-2 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-3 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 8-4 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 8-5 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]

ƀ 8-6 Ŧfrac14űĞ0

1

Aring 1Auml 7Ozuumljfrac14dividearingm-1

11

2009 ƀȚŵĜ (EU) 4Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşKǝamp1 10163 MW divideʟĴ-4 9994 MW Kdivideamp (EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)3 2009ƀ1GˬOtildeş3ŀdivide1DFͶoumlɯ4 EU-4ǰņ3ʟĴ-4ʖ 2frac143ǝamp0Ʌ0)G(EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)ɪɱ1AsectĀɎʥǃaeligethȿĀʂɗǛ3ŘszligIgraveBŘŚAEligʬ3ĪͲ)ampǘ3ɡɦ1DFͶoumlɯ3˞40)G szligɪ-ͶoumlɯɯKŮ-Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bnCcedilɓŝ10)Gė˃

ƟAGͶoumlɯ3ƷŞ4ͶoumlɯƯ3PygP]bn1aRZn3ɯ˩ɩ1ĕF

)ampǨɏEȣɱʄ0ʀ˾Kƾ)GH4ͶoumlɯɯaRZn3ˬOtilde]bnſĹͶKǣ

Ƞ-ʀG-GE-F=ampͶoumlɯ3Ńuumlˊ1Ū0ɗǛ]bnEsectĀɎ

ʥAǃaelig0E-G3D0ijDz3ɚƙG1AͶoumlɯ3]bn463Ĵ3

-AaRZn1=ampěĴņɮ0)FǷʃʐ-43ɏ1ɒɏKƎG

12 frac34frac12sup2

Ƿʃʐ-4ĴSrYȗͶoumlśǟąŚʖ 26ccedilʉmiddot (IEA Wind Task26)Ͷoumlɯ3]bn131ļ+ěĴ3bʃʐKɥ7 Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3ɸ3ĎįKDŽGđdivideĴ4mZoPkUhbPbQRmbPbʟĴ-G Ͷoumlɯ]bn3˟ʏF-4Ʒ]bnʰƾ˺]bnƀɯoumlɯoumlͿ

)ampǘŅ3Ȓƭ˞ʥK˰EgraveHE3]bn3ȵHaRZnǴszligiquest-ŃĀGKDŽGƛ

˞G3aRZn-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnK˷ǥȣGamp3˞0ɂŚćfrac14ĹʗĀɯ

ĎEgrave (LCOE) Kȏ˪ampLCOE 4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3PygP]bn3Ĝ˩OacuteKɠķ1otildeƊƀɯouml1ļ+ĹʗĀampOacute-GLCOE4ɮ0Gˤɏ1ʑ)ampěʍ3ǞȰBưȰKɥ˩ʙG-GǷĽġ-4HE3ˡɏD7Ni3(ș`pU˩ɩȰƄyacuteX

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3Ǔaelig1GccedilǿʫȁK˘1G3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʣ]bn3˰Egrave1divideěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ

aRZn3ƯDzʿeumlɥ-GĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3PdlOzK˷ǥ˽Ĵ-ɣ G]bn˞ʥ3

KǥE1G ǷĽġǮ-4= LCOE KȒƭG]bn˞ʥKʞć1˷ǥș1ǷaRZn3-ɯHampb

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Gȣ3PnKǥE1GěĴ3ĎEgrave˞ʥKđɔbȣͶoumlɯ3 LCOE 3ŸɮKɣ GĎįKǥE1Gș3dZ`-4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEdegǯɱǞȰKʞć1˷ǥͶouml

ɯ3ĹʗĀĎEgraveK˩ʙGș1đɔb-Śʻamp]bn˞ʥ1ļ+LCOELJŚOacute3K˷ǥɥGǞȰ31D) LCOE ŃJ)GKś˯GǰƔ3ʒ-ěđdivideĴ3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3]bn˞ʥK=˷ǥGsup2ǷĽġǮ3ȑ˞-G

2

13 uumljfrac14divideAElignp[

131 -1UacuteIgrave

Ͷoumlɯ3]bn˞ʥ4ǷƷ]bnʰƾD7˺]bn-GHEě

1ěʍ3]bn˞ʥĠ=HGǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampIuml3]bn˞ʥ4Uograve A1ʆF-G ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ņͳ3ǷƷKƛ˞$3Ȓƭ˞ʥ4Ͷ-0ŅʍŅȓ-G

Ugrave 1-1 1ʆD1Ʒʱͳ3ʢ 75Ͷ3]bn-FȟF4˘1=ampD1ʡʭʡļʅˬʹ0E71ƈˬ1G]bn-GHE3]bn4oPkmZbPˏĴ33m

g1ļ+GǑĐ]bn4aRZnŐǨ1ʄIgrave3]bnKƎeacute3ǷƷ1ĠG

KʻyacutemacrGĴAG

Ugrave 1-1 uumljfrac14divideBL0+ccedilyenccedil-1UacuteIgrave

ʱ]bn1ĈGotildeĜͿ reg3]bn1żĈGotildeĜͿ ͶŶľɀͿ

ʡʭʡ ļʅ

ȥˬOtilde ĵĸ

yacute]bn ƈˬ

]^gn

68-84 2-10 1-9 1-9 1-5 1-5 1-5 1-3

ndashndashndash 35-45 20-25 10-15 5-10 5-10 5-10 5-10

ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

ʰƾ4Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥ-ż4IgraveʚɡD7ŚǴɱIgraveŗɏȏ^wbŋʢ

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Gsup3Ś˟ʏFK˖ŅͶoumlɯaRZn-4ƀ3ɗǛ˞-Fƕ)

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71macrGOumlD7Ƿ3Ȓƭ˞ʥAĴ1D)˒ɮ0G=amp$H1ťǴƒ-Geumlɲ1

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Gyacute]bnʱͳ1ƐG x 1-14Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3˟ʏF1Ġampěʍ3]bn˞ʥƷ]bnƀʰƾyacuteŃǘʗͿ

KʆampA3-GͶoumlɯaRZn3ǰʨɱɣɤə4ouml-GampLCOEKƀɯouml-ĹʗĀGƛ˞Gɯouml4Ͷ3əɡɱɚƙD7ɚŚ3aRZn^Pn3ͶɅ3ɚƙ1ŷęHG

132 s_N3N9A

ouml4ͶoumlɯaRZnƯDzʿłGĩĦ-oumlźľ4Ĵ1D)ɮ0G3aRZn4Ͷ

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1DGĔTHORN1divideěʍ3PdlOzKAuml)Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKʄś1ĮĔ-GD1GH

E3PdlOz14ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ(FIT)ɣɤ1Ɯ ampʌͳdžaumlɣė˃SrY˯ǮG4reg3VqcG

3

x 1-1 uumljfrac14divide-1 ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

133 icirc

Ͷoumlɯ1Gɶ3Ņ=žĀHEHE4ĔTHORNB]bn3˰Egrave1Ġ0

HE4ɯƴ˗3oacuteșɱƐ1GńƟG4ʇmiddotɱɥ-Gˊ1aumlɣė˃SrY3ƴ˗4

ƕǽĺɅ3ƴ˗1ȣńƟ3Ɛż1Ū0IEA3 ldquoRenewable Energy Costs and Benefits for Society (RECaBS)rdquo aRZn-4ǥƟ3ǞȰKɥƕǽĺɅaumlɣė˃SrYɅKȣɯ3]bnEacuteɲKLJŚG (RECaBs 2007)ReCABS3ǞȰ˼1DH53ccedilǿ14ș3 53ńƟĠ=HG

ȥNtildeŃuumlɁŜucircȁWbɚ1 CO2D7 CH4Ϳ reg3ņȥȩȃɅSOxNOxD7ʠőͿ ʡʭʡoumlPy93divide]bn oumlʬ˺ǙͶ3şZajnˮȲ 41DGȿͳʗͿ

ɗǛAEligʬ3ŘszligIgraveɗǛTHORN3ĴatildeɅ-3degɥ HE3ńƟ1divideͶoumlɯ4ɗǛ3ȸB$H1sup1ɗǛEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ŷęH0Ͷoumlɯƴ˗

93ƷbZ4ĀʂɗǛ1DGɯƴ˗3bZyMPɮ0GHEszlig3ɚƙ1DFͶoumlɯ

ƴ˗reg3ɯƴ˗3EgraveOacuteNjȊ1G˞0ɚƙɣ GǷʃʐ4$3ȣ˰EgraveK˱gtampA3-

40

134 LCOEGKaacute

UhSrYʃʐdg (ECN) AcircƭampXj`ym4ǷaRZn1G

ˮȲ 4 şZajn (capacity credit) ʡʭŘŚƄ1ƤƐK0ʜı-Ͷoumlɯ1D)ƕǽĺɅHʹnj

EHGKʆȣɞAring5 şZajn 303ľĜǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ 1 GW1ťƕǽĺɅK 03GWȿEG-GşZajn1G˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

4

LCOEyacuteYj (FG) 3˟ʏF3ļɵ0)G3 ECNm4otildeƊXj`ym-Ǝeacute4Uh1Gaumlɣė˃SrY3˚ugrave3ɯAEligʬĽŌK˩ʙGamp1AcircƭHampA3

-Gɠķ ECN43mKɥUhǕƃ1ěʍaumlɣė˃SrYƸ˂3ɣɤ]bnK3ʋƄ1ugrave˧GIEAWind Task26KɯŮ-đdivide˽Ĵ3]bnȒK˟ʏAGamp3mKIcircȜƼņͶoumlɯ3]bnKȄ˳ʧ1˩ʙ-Gkamp3mKȒƭ

G34ɯƯ^PcǨszligːǨˀɥƀǘƷ]bnʰƾaRZn3˺

3ɚƙ)ampmĀ3amp3vg0E71Ɓʜ0vg-GěĴD7==0ˠ

iacuteiquestiacute13mKɥ-$3ȗ˃ŅɥƟǔīHGAring5Xj`y

mKǔ˨ͶoumlɯaRZn3ěˠiacuteiquestiacute1ƕ==0ƴ˗ɱyacuteɱvg1ɥ-

GD1amp3D0Ȅ0m4Ʒ]bnʱͳ3˩ʙ3gt0Eěʍ3ɥ3ɚƙByacuteưȠ

0E71ĴQOoyM3PdlOzK˷ǥG-˞-G

135 GK|yenfrac12-N3B

Xj`ybjo`nKɥͶoumlɯ3]bnK˳ʧ1˩ʙG$3szligvgKUograve A1ʆ3bjo`nm4 6 3Z`n-ȒƭHǰeacute3 3 3Z`n4ɚŚ3Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3˩ʙ1ƛ˞0˳ʧƥĽKNjAEligGamp3A3-G ǰeacute3Z`n4ƀșŃuuml3013ŃǘKŚGA3-GH14aRZn3ɚƙƷ]b

nʱͳǑĐ]bnʱͳĎȲ2szligːǨ1ɔEampǨ]bn˩ʙ3˩ɩťǴĠ=HGƷ]b

nǑĐ]bn4ěʍ3Ȓƭ˞ʥ3ʱͳ˘-GH4ś3]bn3Ÿɮ3ŅĴȣ3

amp3ƥĽKNjAEligHG=amp3Z`n1DFPyŃuuml]bnŀK˷ǥGampͿOumleuml

ɲɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞ0E71OumlǷȣɞaRZn1macrGyacutebZKēǧGampͿ)

ampěʍ3yacuteŃǘKŚG-GE13Xj`ym4ĴBŵ3ȰlaquoʌKʾƬampA

3-G ƀșŃuuml13Z`n14ʰƾĸdegʡʭ]bn)ampƀijŚŃuuml-ȒƭHG

ěʍɶĠ=HFHEK˳ccedil͵ěĴ-ȣ-GD1G=amp-ȥǛBʧ

ȪŚ˞įŋʢ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnʗͿKŚʻG ʖ 33Z`nǕʘ13-4ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT)ʌͳdž$3reg3PdlOzKȏ˪G

3m3U`ȿʌ3EacuteɲKaRZn3Xj`y1ŚampFɑiacuteĎȲ31

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13D7LCOEXj`y13Z`n-˖

136 LCOE FGYacuteEgrave

LCOE FG4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEXj`yK˩ʙampʫȁ-GampĞɶ3ʌƊƔǷeumlɲɞKLCOE FG3otildeƊɞɥGraquo LCOE FG14ě3˩ʙ1ɮ0GXj`y3ȵHKĠGH1sup21ȑ˷G ż3ľĜLCOE3Ľġ14ƷǓaeligƀ]bnȿEgraveUgraveČD7ƸampotildeƊɞAumlJHGƕ)

3Ȃʩgtatilde1G LCOE 3˩ʙOacute4ƷǓaelig3ƾccedilotildeĜszligǴ3otildeƊʌƊƔXj`yʱͳKeȜģɠķEgraveOacute (NPV) G31ƛ˞0ɣɤCcedilœeumlɲŚʻHGLCOE3˩ʙ-4ɯG4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɚecirc1ɥHGPdlOzE3ĔTHORN3Xj`yKʾƬ0

ECN3 LCOE˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

ĎȲ2 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4ǑĐ]bnKaRZnƈʝǴ1ʄIgraveKĴʻyacutemacrGľĜ3gt3]b

nKĠamp ĎȲ3 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4szlig3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKɑiacute13sup3Śamp=Feumlɥė˃0szlig3ȿʌ3ơƣKřszlig1ĖEH

GD0Xj`yăccedil1œķG-G

5

H41ɠķ FG3˩ʙ-4Ͷoumlɯ1ijDz3ɯɱPdlOz3Xj`yfynYacute˖Ʒʌļɵ3ƷugraveƭʗͿKʾƬG3Śʻ1ļ+brvbarś FG1D)ěĴ3 LCOEɯ0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ɱPdlOz1DFśɠHampeumlɲ3K˘G

ECNm3 FG˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

˫3D1ʌƊƔ3ƀXj`y14ouml3łĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3˚ugraveƱƮD7P

dlOzƀʰƾȽeumlƢǓƱ0E71yacuteľ3ȿEgraveUgraveČeumlődž3ʌƊƔͳ

E3Xj`yĠ=HG x 1-24LCOEƖEHampĔTHORNoumlźľĔTHORNFITAEligʬĽŌʗͿPdlOzD7yacuteYj

3EcircKʆampA3-G3IJ1ʆD1FGOacuteȜ3ľĜ4aRZnɯʿ3 LCOEK31ƛ˞0ĔTHORNƖEH0)ampƧģ-F3ľĜ4 LCOE KG3ăccedil0ĔTHORNƖEHampKʆĨG

x 1minus2 aringmH7Bmacrs_N3N9AampgtKQ-1Agravedeg

ʌƊƔ3Xj`yt

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ ndash

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

FG =

1 ndash ʌɞ times ƀʰƾ t ndash ʌɞ times euml t + ʌyacute3ȿEgraveUgraveČ t

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ +

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

LCOE =

6

14 rkzoumlRuumljfrac14divide-1

șʛ-4 Ĵ3aRZn3ǎugraveKGĴatildeƷŞ1)3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKđdivideamp 7Ĵ3Ĵecirc1ʆH14 ECN3mǞȰ˼KɥG˞0Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3ŃǘKŅĴ-ȣG1DFěĴ3ccedilFͶoumlɯaRZn3|bP]bnǥʄ10Geumlɥ

ė˃0mgEHGampȳͶoumlɯ3]bn4˳ʆ0ĽġHamp]bnmg3

Ūǘ3^KĠG

15 vQ5otildeordm

3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnƟ˃0E71yacutemgszligiquest3ȜʄDzucircƟKaeligǽGF˯ǥD

ampmgfb4ŅʍŅȓ-FĽġHampmg34ĴD7mgfb1DFɮ0)G

Aring5ĽġHamp]bn3mg42008 ƀ3ͳ-˘ampɠķEgraveȉK˘G3ŚEgraveȉǥʄ-0brvbarAringAG=ampsup21ǀGvgA2008 ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlaRZnK˘amp3A3-Gś14 2008ƀntilde1ɯȲHǓƱJHampbrvbarAringKĠGė˃ƟGmgEHGampampɉķɱ0ɿɹKIcircȜG-0)ampE1 IEA Task264ěĴ3deg˘ɱ013aRZnK˘KƧIJampA3-GͶoumlɯ3ś3]bn4^PnaRZn1D)ɮ0G

ƕ)sup23mg4ěĴ3szligˊɱɛȯ˷ǥ3amp3gt1ʆampA3-3ɏ1ɫƧ-G

16 tzGKLCOErmicroQ1

Ͷoumlɯ3Ĵecirc3]bnļǷampaRZn-4đɔb13Ĥ8ͿȣHG

3đɔb4ěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3deg˘ɱ0Ȓƭ˞ʥK˘A3-ƴ˗ɱvgaRZn3ɚƙƟ

˃Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bnʰƾʗͿyacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞ

ǴĴ3ʌɞʗͿ3ǞĠ=HGđɔb-4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘKńG=ampͶoumlɯ

KǓǎGĕFʩgt4Ĵ1D)ɮ0GampͶoumlɯǕʘBPdlOzAĠ0ƕ)đɔ

b-4 LCOE3˩ʙʫȁ3gtK˘ʆG Ĵecirc3ƴ˗ɱvgKUgrave 1-21ʆĎȲ4đɔb-43ěvgKszlig3Ĵ1Ga

RZn3ˬOtildeş3divideſĹ˩ʙGđɔb3ƴ˗ɱvg3OacuteA3˘1ʆF

2008 ƀ3ˬOtildeşȣɱņ)ampbQRmʟĴ$HH 98MW85MWͿ-ƄĜņ0)G7 Ĵ- 2008 ƀ1śǟHampdeg˘ɱ0aRZnKŅŪ0FAēǧ-GD1đɔb3divide14Ĵatilde3ʱSrYş-40aRZn3ˬOtildeşKɥGđɔb3aRZ

nȒʝ14==0Ƹ˂G$3ƸĴecirc3 LCOE G4 FG ˩ʙ1ƐG40ɏKƿǐG34˞-GđɔbNjAEligG342008 ƀ3Ĵecirc3ʫȁKȣGamp3ˊɱ0ɏ10 Ugrave 1-3 4Ĵecirc3yacutevgKʆampA3-Gě3yacutevg1szlig3Ĵ3ʼnOacuteKđɔ

b3OacuteɥGYacute1ampD1đɔb3˩ʙOacuteĴecirc3 LCOE B FG 3ʫȁ1ƐG40

ECN m-4otildeƊɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞKɥGǷdivideſĹ]bn (WACC) A3˘1ʆGWACC 4˜ǘ3yacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞĴ3ʌɞͿKyacute]bnszligiquestK˷ǥGćɂŚļɆ1ĠG Ugrave 1-41ĴecircD7đɔb3 LCOE FG3ʫȁKʆ3ʫȁ142008ƀ3 LCOEyacuteYj

3˩ʙʫȁKĠG3ʫȁ4Ĵecirc3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnszligiquestK˘ampʆampA3-G3Ͷ

oumlɯaRZn-Aś3 LCOE4ľƯaRZn1D)ɮ0)G

ĎȲ4 Ugrave 1-33mĀ3sup3Ś3amp3THORNoumlmg43gt-ʆG1ɫƧraquo LCOE FG3ʫȁ4

ʟo3Ǟ-ʆG

7

Ugrave 1-2 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divideOslashfrac12JFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h b

P bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b Ͷ^Pc(MW) ĎȲ5 23 20 30 20 24 20 17 21

Ͷļǘ 7 5 5 15 41 6 50 34 szligːǨ 2695 2260 2200 2150 2600 1750 3066 2628 ƷĎȲ6(eurokW) 1250 1373 1325 1250 1591 1790 1377 1449 ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 00 15 00 00 16 00 00 06 reg3]bn

euroMWhͿ 3 0 10 3 0 0 0 1

ʰƾijŚͿ(euroMWh) 000 4633 3139 000 001 000 860 629

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 12 0 13 20 11 31 5 11

njʰƾʱͳ

(euroMWh) 12 21 28 20 11 31 7 13

đɔb divide 61 38 57 114 366 46 318 NA

Ugrave 1-3 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14dividearingmJFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h bP

bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 55 50 70 50 50 60 50 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 110 95 150 100 120 70 75 100 Oumlyacute3otildeĜͿ 80 70 80 80 87 70 0 80 Ƿ3otildeĜͿ 20 30 20 20 13 30 100 20 ǴƀͿ 13 13 15 15 20 20 15 15 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 250 298 255 300 280 210 389 280

WACCͿ 52 56 60 59 47 49 75 49

Ugrave 1-4 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divide LCOE FGyuml2008Ā

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

bPb 120 (167) oPk 5 (7) Uh 94 (131) ʟĴ ndash1 (ndash1) oPk 85 (118) bPb ndash1 (ndash1) bP 83 (115) Uh ndash3 (ndash4)

bQRm 67 (93) bP ndash3 (ndash4) ʟĴ 65 (91) mZ ndash6 (ndash8)

mZ 61 (85) bQRm ndash8 (ndash11) đɔb 68 (95) đɔb NA

Ugrave 1-41ʆampD1Ĵecirc3 LCOE4bPb3 120MWh167oMWhͿĎȲ7EmZ3 61MWh85oMWhͿ=-Gđɔb3 LCOE4 68MWh95oMWhͿLJŚGěĴ3 LCOE ɮ0)G34Ĵecirc3ɯoumlʰƾǓaeligƷ]bn˺ǞȰ31DGA3-Gș1ěĴ3 LCOE1HE3vgĒltƐKDŽG

ĎȲ5 DF˳Ͷoumlɯ]bnccedilǿ14gɷƑtzſĹͶ)amp˞0vgKĠSrYAElig

ʬ1Gǥʄ0sup3ŚKĠG10G1ʆampLJŚOacute4ǷǮ1ʆampsup2ń3ƴ˗BĴşǦ1ȣ-GD

1ș3ćʣ0shyȓ3gtKʆA3G ĎȲ6 Yacute1ampD1Ʒ]bnD7aRZnƈˬ4 2008ƀ3A3sup3ŚGś14Ʒ]bnͶ3

ɯȲʗͿ14 2008ƀsup2ntilde3ǘŒĠ=HGė˃ƟG ĎȲ7 ɐǯn 1o139-njʙ

8

17 LCOEzoacuteplusmnecirc

ŅĴccedilǿ-4ěĴ1G 43˞0]bnvg3 LCOE93ƐKDŽ)ampĴecirc1 LCOEKLJŚ63]bnvgKĴecirc3Oacute$3reg3vgKđɔb3Oacuteamp3ccedilǿ14

|bPɂŚļɆđɔb3vgOacuteͿȣampĴecirc3THORNoumlvg3ƐKegraveFamp

3ŅĴccedilǿ-ȏ˯amp˞0vg14ɯoumlƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnKĠ

ampș13ʫȁKszlig3Ĵ3-ȣamp AringěĴ3szligːǨ3 LCOE 93ƐKx 1-3 1ʆ3IJ4 3 3ǥʄ0˱bKȣ

ampA3-G=Ɍˎ3Ȍ[y4Yacute1Ugrave 1-4 -ʆampěĴ3 LCOE K˘A3-szligTHORNoumlvgKĴecirc1ʆGș1ʳ4đɔbKʆA3-|bP3 LCOEK 68MWhszligvgKđɔb3OacuteG=ampʲˎ3jn4ȼĜbKʆA3-szligːǨKĴecirc3Oacute

$3reg3vgKđɔb3OacuteG x 1-31-6 4$HHɯouml˫đɔͿƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnK˘G

Ĵecirc3 LCOEɌˎ3Ȍ[yͿđɔb3 LCOEʳͿ43IJ-AŚ˞0]bnvg4ěIJ-ɮ0)FHKV-ccedilFǦʆG

x 1-3 rmicroQ1tzfrac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀkwIumlsect

x 1-4 rmicroQ1tzccedil-1kwIumlsect

9

x 1-5 rmicroQ1tzigraveeacuteETHaeligkwIumlsect

x 1-6 rmicroQ1tzccedilntildeacirciacute-1kwIumlsect

ěĴ3˞0Ͷoumlɯ]bn3vg34sup23D1˷ǥ-GampH1E0Ϳ frac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀăszligːǨ3Ĵ1DG14==0aacuteD7Iumlecirc3˞įƐ

GAring5oPk-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ1D)aRZnɯ4ͶɅ3 Ć1ƹB

EHGmZ-4Ĵatilde3ǵɯ3^PnKɯGntilde1Ͷ3ʹˬ˩1D)Ǡœ3Ͷ

oumlɯ^Pn3ˬOtildeǭǝEumlHGľĜAF$3ʫȁĴatilde3eacuteǴ3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn3

2008ƀ1ˬOtildeǭǝ3ť0)GbPb-4ű3NZdbEHGamp2008ƀ1śǟHampɯaRZn3ǘ4ŚHampA310)GʟĴ14Uumlccedil1ˍō0ͶɅ

KDzGaRZn^PnǘŅGʳ93NZdbeumlɥė˃ɞEHGamp

aRZnɥ^PnȪŚ14FFľĜ1D)4ɯ3aeligoumlƶiacuteKGKƖ00)

GǞbQRm-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ4Ƿʃʐ3reg3Ĵ4ĪͲ10)0Uh-4

FIT3ĽŌ3szligːǨ3ǰņOacute-ȪEHGampǰ0^PnKɯampFǰǝ3ƴ˗KɥampFGyacutePdlOzŪ00)Gė˃ƟG

ccedil-1ăƷ]bn4Ĵ1D)˒ɮ0GmZ-AUh-AszligːǨ1ļ+

ugraveƭ3 FITĽŌͶ3Ƹ1Ɛƕ)aRZn3Ʒ]bn1ƐGmZ-4szligːǨampF3˚ugrave3ͳKǰņ1Gampņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶUacuteYacute

HGǞUh-4˚ugraveKszligːǨ3ʜıatildeGampDF]bn3ŘͶ

10

ƴ˗ˡˡHGmZ-4oumlʡʭ93ʡ]bn)ampͶoumlɯaRZn3

ŨTHORN]bn34aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZn3So_oumlȸʿͿ

ǓƱ)G$3ampmZ3ʡ]bn4Ʒ]bn1Ġ=H0bPo

Pk$3reg33Ĵ-4ʡ]bn$3reg3ʡʭŀƍ]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿǓ

Ʊ)Famp)H4Ʒ]bn1ĠEHGbQRm14Ʒ]bn3ethȿ

ė˃10GD0ćʣĀHampʡʭʡưGoPk-4ͶoumlɯͶɅ3 Ć

1ƼņampʫȁɯbrvbarȐʿ4$3˚UgraveưȠŅ3aRZn-gɷƑ3ņ0ͶK

DFľƯ1ˬʹGKƖ00)GƷ]bn4gɷƑD7tz3ǘOacuteņ

0GͿbPb-4ű3ͶoumlɯaRZnɥ^Pn93NZdb=ampˠ

ȕ3ʪȽKȘGampƷ]bn0)G ʟĴ-4ņˠȕ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥEacuteɲ4ɚ1Ͷ3THORN1EcircFɯȲˠȕ

ņ0G1HEgraveȉotildeƊHG˯ǥHGʟĴ3QOoyM4đɔbD

FAaRZnˠȕņƷ]bnfrac12ampʟĴ3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4ǘotildeƊĖEHG

ơƣGˉģȻ1bQRm-4aRZn3ˠȕņ0)AEgraveȉ3otildeƊ

3ơƣ40H4 2008ƀ3bQRm3ˬʹ]bnmampaRZnşȣŪ0)ampamp-ė˃ƟG

igraveeacuteETHaeligăěĴʆampʰƾ3mg4ʄśƟşǦ1Iacuteͱ-0ǘOacute-G

mZ-4żͶoumlɯaRZn3OumlȖʿ4 5Έ10 ƀ3Ǵɱʰƾ^wbŋʢKƛ˞FH4ƀʢ 25kWĽġHGUh-4ʰƾ14żaRZnszligiquest-Ś3EgraveȉHG^wbŋʢ]bnD7ĸdegĠ=HFĽġH

G]bn45Έ23kWņoPk-Aǰfrac12 5ƀ3řszlig0^wbŋʢƛ˞HGľĜGbPb-4ʰƾ3ʪEHGuacuteNZd`wlO

3ĪͲ0E71Ͷ3ɼȧBcentȵ1D)reg3ĴDFʰƾ0)GʟĴ3

ʰƾ4ƀŨTHORNHampņˠȕ0aRZn-4ſĹfrac120)GD-GʟĴ-4

YN~jZbzoG4ɯȗ3ĦKordfnjGǨǴǣG˯ƻAcedilEHF

ƕ)ĽġHGmg3ʰƾ4ũ˰EgraveHGė˃ƟGoPk-AOtildeĦ3ordfnj

ƛ˞HGampũˠȕaRZn-4ʰƾ0)G=ampoPk4szligiquest3

ʰƾ3˞0Ȓƭ˞ʥͳ0ŚǴɱɠĸˡŤ3]bnĽġHGbQRm

-4ʰƾaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒ɮ0)G ccedilntildeacirciacute-1ăͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bn4ʟĴsup2ń3Ĵ-4ĝʋƄ-Gm

ZoPkUh-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿub`n1ļ+Ͷouml

ɯaRZn3K˺Goumlmiddotʇ-GľĜKż4aRZn$3A31D

)K˺GmZbQRm-4ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˊɱ1frac12

bZ3Ʒȗ˟0H$HaRZn33ȪŚ1ēǧHGʟĴsup2ń33Ĵ-

AaRZn3˺3Oumlȣɞ40)Fż4 60Έ87-G ʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn˺ǞȰ4(E5Aringńɱ-G2008 ƀ14ʟĴ3Ņ3aRZnż1ˇŹǷȣɞ55 100Ϳ-˺HaRZn1ļ+Ouml4lte-)ampH4Ǖƃ3yacute3˚ugraveiacuteƄ3amp-F3iacuteƄ1DFgjZb

SZPlO13ʀEHGSZPlOyMPpbȇƉɯ˖1DGǷ˺Ϳ1ɚĀHampƏƩ

ƞŀampgjZbSZPlOyMPpbUacuteYacuteHampampʟĴ-4regĴDFAǷ]bn

0)G0J(gjZbSZPlO4żOumlDFAͿ=ampʟĴ-4Ouml1D

G˺1D)aRZn3ɅKʄIgraveampb-4aRZn-40Ȱlaquo|-

3OumlK)GľĜ)amp =-3=x 1-31-61ʆamp 43˞0]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥD7ěĴ3 LCOEđɔ

b3 LCOEKx 1-71ʆ

11

x 1-7 rmicroQ1tzordfUacuteIgravekwIumlsect

x 1-8 4˞0]bnŃǘ3 LCOE 93ƐKE1ȣȏ˪Gamp1˞0]bnvgKĴecirc-40[1G3IJ-4ěĴ3]bnŃǘ3ƐD7đɔbȣampěĴ3 LCOE3ņKʆGȌ[y4ěĴ3 LCOE KŀdivideGOacuteKʆʲ3Ȍ[y4đɔbDFAěĴ3 LCOE Kfrac12GOacuteKʆ˞0]bnvgKLCOE đɔbDFŀdivideampʋƄȌ[yͿ3ņ1E1ʆGAring5ɯouml3ǰũŃǘ4bPbĽġampǘOacute-G

3Ĵ3ʰƾƷ]bnDFA LCOE KŀdivideG3ǰfrac12OacuteEǰOacute=-3Ĵecirc3THORNoumlvg3ʜıEɯoumlD7Ʒ]bn LCOE 1ǰAƐampJGH4ˊ1Đ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOEƨƄccedilǿˈG (IEA 2010 Cory and Schwabe 2009)ˉģȻ1ĽġHampʰƾ3ʜı4đɔbȣƷ]bn˺]bnDFA LCOE ŀdivide1ƐG3E ʰƾmg3ʄśƟeumlɥė˃Ɵƕ)THORNoumlvg3Ĵ1DG3ņLCOELJŚOacute3ȜʄƟKEHampA31ampė˃ƟGʰƾ1įGŸɮKȿEampE0Gccedilǿ

ƛ˞-GʾEHG

x 1-8 tzSUacute-1JFQ5 LCOEoslash

12

18 rkzacuteRuumljfrac14divide-1

ECN3m1DF-0ȳ1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯƯ3 LCOEKLJŚG-GraquoɠǨɏ-eumlɥ-GȳaRZn3mg4EHFɚ1Ĵecirc3 LCOE KLJŚG31ƛ˞0THORNoumlŃǘ3řszlig0mgƉGƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ1GĴecirc3 LCOE ȣ4˖)E$3đɔbAˬ0sup23Ugrave 1-5 D7 1-6 1ĽġHG]bn˺3mg3KʆɫƧmZ-4ʡʭ93ʡD7ȷƂz3ƛ˞ƟKʇmiddotɱɥGamp

aRZn3ɯȐʿHKƺ0-G3ccedilǿ-ɥampm4aR

Zn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏ1ʑ)ampA3-GampmZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF1ēǧ0m

Āccedilǿ-4Aumlɥ0)ampHE3ʡʭʡ]bnKĠG-mZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF4

ʢ 3000kW10Gx 1-71HE3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1˟ʏA)amp LCOEyacuteYjKʆ

Ugrave 1-5 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+fOslashfrac12JFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn aRZn3ɛȯ 2007ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF

ʓŶƀ 2007ƀ 2010ƀƔĄ ɚŚH ɯƯ^Pc(MW) 20 23 50

Ͷļǘ 60 90 12 szligːǨ 3350 3800 3700 Ʒ(eurokW) 3315 1883 3230

ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 0 0 0 reg3]bn(euroMWh) 11 0 0 ʰƾijŚͿ

(euroMWh) 149 0 123

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 0 24 0

njʰƾʱͳ(euroMWh) 44 24 33

ˀɥƀǘ 15 25 20

x 1-6 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+faringmJFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 45 65 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 120 112 150 OumlotildeĜͿ 50 26 70 ǷotildeĜͿ 50 74 30 ǴƀͿ 15 13 12 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 255 250 298

WACCͿ 79 92 77

Ugrave 1-7 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+f LCOEthornFG

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

Prinses Amalia 166 (231) oPkˊcurrenɂ NA oPkˊcurrenɂ 156 (217) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 6 (8) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 88 (122) Prinses Amalia 5 (7)

13

19 T LCOEYacuteEgravesup2

LCOE4==0ɶɱuumlȗD7˸ʿ3amp1˩ʙHGˊźȤǕʘȪŚʿƷŞaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿʗě3ɚŚ3qcKɄamp LCOE KeumlɥGamp) LCOE 1AumlJHGưȰ4ȓ-40LCOEK3ʋƄ˳LJŚGG43ʋƄ3sup3Śƛ˞4AumlɥG˩ʙǞȰ1D)==-FH LCOE 3ʫȁ1˒ƐG3ampecirc3 LCOE ˩ʙǞȰK=-3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECNmD7ǞȰťȣsup21˷ǥG Aring5ș˩ɩ`pU-4Ʒ]bn3ɠķOacuteD7ʇmiddotɱotildeƊɞKɥotildeFƊampƀ]bn3ſ

Ĺ1ļ+ćʣĀampdeg˘OacuteKɥ LCOE K˟ʏAGľĜG3Ni-4OumlǷȣɞOumlǷ]bnǴȰlaquoʌ)ampǥʄ0ɅʄIgraveǼacute3sup3Ś0H0$3degJF3ćʣ

0ǞȰ-4otildeƊɞLOacute3gtKɥF$H1D)yacuteưȠ3ɚƙKszlig˘GIEA 3Projected Costs of Generation Electricityrdquo (IEA2010) D7IEA World Energy Outlook 2009rdquo (IEA 2009) 43NiKɥFsup23Ɖ1DF LCOEK˩ʙG

3Ni-4IEA 4otildeƊɞKʇmiddotɱɅ]bn13˘G3]bn4ʇmiddotszligiquestɚŚ

3ƴ˗1ƷG1ƺ]bnK˘ (IEA2010)3ʇmiddotɱ˟ĸEIEA4otildeƊɞ 5Έ10KɥF5KȣɱŘŚɱ0ɢĿ1GOumlyacuteŰ˖bZ3frac12ƷŞeumlɥ-Gɞ1310K˒ʪȽɱƴ˗ɱbZD7EgraveȉbZ1ɷGƷŞ3Ʒ]bn13G (IEA2010)DFćʣĀampș˩ɩ`pU1DFTHORNoumlvg3ǘKǰũ1˳ʧƄ1D)ěʍ3ɯĺ3 LCOE KşǦ1ȣG-G H41 ɯȐʿ4 ECNm3D0Ƅ0Xj`ymKAuml)ɚŚ3aRZn

ě3 LCOE0E71ȜģɠķEgraveOacuteatildeĔɲɞȽǴ)ampreg3yacuteƿȔK˰EgraveG3m1˜ǘ3ƯDzʿ3ǥʄ0˺3ntildeNjǼacuteʌ3Ɛ$3reg3ĔTHORNG4]bn3ƐKĠ

GľĜAGǨ143mKɥegrave3ɉķɱ0]bn3ȵHK˰EgraveampFparaȐ3ɚŚ3

aRZn93ƷKė˃1GeumlɲƖEHGD0SrYEgraveȉKȪŚampFG(Harper et al 2007)3˳ʧ0ǞȰKɥampľĜƷ]bnBƀʪ-0ǘŅ3˞į LCOE 1ƐG10GaRZnƈˬ3ǰʨɱ0ȪŚȖ4ƷŞ1GampͶoumlɯ3ʮʯɱ0ˬʹKė˃1G]bn3OacuteKɡ˥

G14ƷŞ3ˡɏKɡ˥G˞-G Aring3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECN m4ƾccedilƷŞ1ƯŚ3Ƿeumlɲɞ (ROE) KIgrave˯aR

ZnȢ1 LCOEK˰EgraveGamp3Ƅ0Xj`ym-GYacute1ampD1ECN3Xj`ymKE1˳ʧ0A31G-ǷD7OumleumlőKƾ˺ȒKǥʄ1˘-

G=ampͶoumlɯ3]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏE˘-aRZnKGamp

3ĔTHORN3ȵH-ɸȡ0H50E0Ͷoumlɯ]bnK˟ʏG-G

110 LCOEYacuteEgraveocircicedilplusmnecirc

Ugrave 1-8 4otildeƊɞ LCOE ǞȰKȣampA3-GXj`yccedilǿ3ćʣ0ǞȰƄ0ǞȰ3ǞKɥ3otildeƊɞ1 LCOE K˟ʏFreg3egrave3]bnvgKě3đɔb1ɔEŚampE1HEʿ3ǞȰ1D)đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿKɣ GotildeƊɞK˘G

t=1Tsum Ʒ t + ʰƾ t + ɗǛ t + Ɏʥ]bn t + ǑĐ t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

LCOE =

t=1Tsum ɯouml t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

Ϳ

14

ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3ˡɏELdeg˘ɱ0otildeƊɞ4Ȥ3aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿG4ƷŞ3ˡɏ1ʑ

)ampotildeƊɞ3OacuteDFfrac120GtimesğGIEA2010 1DH5ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3otildeƊɞfrac120)Gɡɦ4bZŪǘ3ȤƷŞ-40ǘŅ3IumllaquoƷŞ1ccedilǗHGampɷGbZ˺]bn

Ū00Gamp-G$H1sup1ʇmiddotɱˡɏE3 LCOE 3˟ʏFAȤƷŞ3˟ʏFDFAfrac120Gtimesğ1G

Ugrave 1-8 icedil LCOEsup2plusmnecirc

ǞȰͽˡɏ ˡɏ ˺]

bn3Ʋ ɥ m

otildeƊɞ3

ʜı

otildeƊɞ3ʜı

1G LCOE

đɔb3

LCOEKɣ GotildeƊɞ

ș`pU ˩ɩ3ćʣ˩ʙ

agraveɱʇmiddotɱ ƷŞ3ˡɏ

otildeƊɞ1 ĠG IEA2010 5Έ10

53Έ70MWh

IEA3ǞȰͿ

95 IEA3ǞȰͿ

ƄXj`

yccedilǿ

aRZn ɯbrvbarȐʿG

4ȤƷŞ ǥʄ1Śʻ ECN2008 75Έ15

(ROE) 64Έ76

MWh 10

ECN3ǞȰͿ

reg3szlig3Ńǘ1đɔb3ntildeNjǼacuteKɥ Ƿccedilǿ-ĽġHamp ROE3ʜı1ļ+

Ugrave 1-8 1ʆD1(E3Ni-ALotildeƊɞ3 LCOE Oacute1˒ƐG95otildeƊɞ4ʇmiddot3ˡɏK˘ʞɬ0˩ʙȰKɥđɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿK˩ʙG31ƛ˞0Oacute-Gƕ)Ƿʃʐ3đdivide˽ĴĽġampmg1ļ+0E3otildeƊɞ4ǰņOacute1+4-F

IEA-43ʜıK 5Έ10GH4ʞɬĀampʇmiddotɱ˩ɩǞȰKɥƄXj`yưȰ3ordmOacuteKǥE1ampA3-G 1frac12Ǟ3otildeƊɞNjȊHampŽ3ǰAfrac12OacuteͿˊƷŞ3bK˘amp1ɥEHGƕ)

LCOEK˩ʙG14=ampͶoumlɯ3 LCOEKreg3Ʌ3 LCOEȣG14aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏG4DFƁoumlʡʭ|3ˡɏ3(E1ʑ)GKǥʄ1GėȘ-G

otildeƊɞ3Ƹ4$3ˡɏ1ťƜGdz=LCOEK˘ěʍ3ƉKɥGľĜ4ʑˆGˡɏotildeƊɞ$3reg3vg3OacuteKǥʄ1˥Gƛ˞HG

111 Iumlatilde

IEAWind Task263ʫȁELCOEĴ1D)ņɮ0)GJG33ƄĜ4ɯoumlƷɥ˺)ampě]bn3Ɛ1DGA3HGcurrenƦFĴŞ3 LCOE3Ÿɮ1ǰAƐamp34Ƿɱ0ͶȯG4Ͷ3ƴ˗shyȓ1ļ+currenɂHGɯouml-G=amp

ǷɱǓaeligD7ͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ǽacuteņɮ0GEźľoumlAͶoumlɯ3]bnszligiquest

1˒ƐGE1ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾAěĴ-˒ɮ0FH LCOE 1ņ1Ɛamp 63ɂŚļɆ-SrY3]bnszligˊK˘ LCOE 3Ɵ4ĴBɶɱ˸ʿ$3reg3eumlɥʿ3

-ćʣ0ȣ-GD1ƝJHGLCOE3ěʍ3˩ʙ3ˡɏE3D10HampKȜʄ1ɡ˥Gƛ˞GLCOE4ɪaacute-Aordfnjė˃0˩ʙ-A0IɚŚ3qc1ɥHGDzɲ-Eacuteeuml0k-Gƕ)ȣD7$3ʫȁ3˥14ɫƧGdz=

rOtildemiddot

Cory and Schwabe 2010 ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financial Variablesrdquo httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2009) ldquoThe Economics of Wind Energy A Report by the European Wind

15

Energy Associationrdquo March 2009 Available at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentspublicationsreportsEconomics_of _Wind_Main_Report_FINAL-lrpdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2010) ldquoWind in Power 2009 European Statisticsrdquo The European Wind Energy Association February 2010 Accessed at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentsstatistics100401_General_Stats_20 09pdf

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review and Comparative Analysisrdquo Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 Accessed at httpeetdlblgoveaempreports63434pdf

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2006) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2006rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2006weo2006pdf

IEA (2008) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2008rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2008weo2008pdf

IEA (2009) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2009rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgWbookshopaddaspxid=388

IEA (2010) ldquoProjected Costs of Generating Electricityrdquo 2010 Edition Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgpublicationsfree_new_DescaspPUBS_ID=2207

RECaBs (2007) ldquoRECaBs Interactive Renewable Energy Calculatorrdquo Renewable Energy Calculator Accessed August 2010 at httpwwwrecabsorg

Wiser R Bolinger M (2010) ldquo2009 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy August 2010 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs2009_wind_technologies_market_reportpdf

16

Aring 2Auml NDQ+

21 NDQ+uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ȑ˞0E71]bn3ɚƙKG-

4 2008 ƀ3D7ȳͶoumlɯƴ˗1GĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1ɒɏKƎG

211 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

2008ƀǶ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ĝ˩ 3179MW 2756MWȳ 423MWͿ-H4 2007ƀǶ3ˬOtildeş1ťʢ 1252000ƀ3ˬOtildeşDFA 32ŀdivideG2001ƀE 2008ƀ=-1ŀdivideampˬOtildeş3ʢĄǘ4ȳͶoumlɯ1DGA3-G2008 ƀ1ȳ-ƈˬ3ȳQOoyM4 3F(64 2009ƀ1řƭA64 2010ƀʈ1ŐGcurrenŚ-GˮȲ 5 x 2-1 1ʆD1ŨTHORN3Ƅ4Ǵ15EņJG2001ƀE 2003ƀ1

ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 725MW ŀdivideamp2004 ƀE 2007 ƀ=-4 8MW ŀdivideamp10H4 2003 ƀ1śǟHampaRZn3ǕɱǓǎ˩ɩņŽ1ȿͳHampʫȁ-GHK˚amp1 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampǝamp0ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFͶ3ƈˬǝamp1ȲɶHG10)amp2008ƀ3 FITŨTHORNƔ2010ƀ 7DZǶ=-1Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 280MWŀdivideG (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ1D)mZ3ʱoumlȸ3ʢ 20AEligʬHG

x 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

ˮȲ 5 Roslashdsand IIȳͶoumlɯƯ4 2010ƀ 8DZ1ŐG

17

mZ4ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ƀșɶȔKŚ0EU 3˞Ȩ1DH5mZ4 2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯ-ʱSrYȸ3 30Kamp3˩ɩKʘŚ0H50E0EU-4szlig3divideɳĴ13aumlɣė˃SrY3ɶȔOacuteKƭGamp3˖uuml˩ɩ3AcircƭKʻyacutemacrFm

Z4 2010ƀ 6DZ1Ĵ3˖uuml˩ɩKɯ˘G3˩ɩ-42020ƀ=-1ˬOtildeşKʢ 4 GW$H1D)Ͷoumlɯ4 11000 GWh10GcurrenƦHG=ampʱş3 3ccedil3 1D7ouml3ʢ 50Kȳ1ˬʹGͶEƖGcurrenƦHG (Kemin 2010)(0gt12009ƀ3ɯouml4ʢ 6700 MWh-G2010 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3currenɂ4ěȚŵdivideɳĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010) ʁǴɶȔ2008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MW3divide0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ˬ

Otildeş 350 MW3ǝˬŚEHG3ɶȔOacute3Ąccedil4Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ1D)ƭA3-$H1D)ʦʏş4 175 MWŀdivideG10GĸǞ3˩ɩƎŬ42012ƀ=-1 350MW1divideş 150 MWKdivideGamp3˩ɩKˠŚ0H50E0 ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MWKdivideGʁǴɶȔ433ņˠȕ0ȳͶoumlɯƯ0J( Horns

Rev II209 MW2009ƀ 9DZŐͿRoslashdsand II207 MW2010ƀʈʓŶcurrenŚͿAnholt400 MW2012ƀ12DZʓŶcurrenŚͿ1DFƭHG˟gt-G

Ugrave 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

1761 2358 2464 2697 2708 2716 2720 2728 2717 2756 2985 2621

ȳ 11 50 50 210 423 423 423 423 423 423 856 1339

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 2-2 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

176 1 597 106 183 12 8 4 8 ndash11 39 ndash38 ndash135

ȳ 11 39 0 210 223 0 0 0 0 0 100 ndash14

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

212 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1iacuteŚHampaumlɣė˃SrYȰ1DFͶoumlɯaRZn3ǝamp0ĽiacuteƄŨTHORNHampǝamp03ͶoumlɯaRZnD7UoN13ȳaRZnĎȲ8-4HAszligːǨ

22000Ǩ1igraveG=-bjnźľEgraveȉ1divide 025mZZrkW0034kW ĎȲ9 0047okWͿ3ugraveƭNjAEligHGĎȲ10szligːǨ˫3Ǩ1igraveampƔ4źľEgraveȉKĖĕG10

G Ͷ1ť4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥƀǘ3Ǵ ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3˚ugraveƀ 0023mZ

ZrkW00037kW 0005okWͿ˚ugraveHG

ĎȲ8 UoNaRZn134ȳͶoumlɯƯ3THORNǸư4ecirc1ƈˬHGȳͶoumlɯƯ3aRZn

ŚʻHG13ȳͶoumlɯƯUoNɧ˻db1DFƈˬHG ĎȲ9 17353mZZr ĎȲ10 ɠ˖3Egraveȉ˚ugraveiacuteƄ4ͶoumlɯaRZn93ugraveƭK 1 kWampF 010mZZr0013Ϳamp

[1degJ)ŨTHORNHampA3-G

18

ˊɱ1mZ-4ͶszligːǨ- 22000Ǩ3ɯK˖147ƀE 10ƀGAring5 3 MWͶKˬʹGH5FIT4ș3D1ȪŚHGĎȲ11

3 MWͶszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 3000 kWh

3000 kWh times 22000 = 66 GWh FITʬ˺Ǚ˚ugrave43 MWͶ 66 GWhɯG=-3ǴǓƱJHG3Oacute4ș3D10G

(66 GWh times 025Zr) + (66 GWh times 0023Zr) = 18064200Zr

Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4ʽǹĀampͶKǑĐGǝˠ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1A

ɥHG3ͳ4ǑĐHampˬOtildeş3 2ETHKɣɤGamp3szligːǨ 12000Ǩ1ť 008mZZrkW001kW 00139okWͿ-GAring5 225 kW3ͶKTHORNǝˠ3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn1D)ǑĐGľĜˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugraveK˩ʙGsup23D10G

225 kW times 2ļszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 450 kWh

450 kWh times 12000 = 54 GW

ǑĐamp 225 kWͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4

54 GWh times 008Zr = 432000Zr 3˚ugraveɥHG34450 kWǵɄ3ͶKǑĐGľĜ1EHG3˚ugrave3ơƣKĖGamp

3ǝˠaRZn-ǑĐGͶ3ǘ1iacuteˬEHGJ-403˚ugraveɥHG34

450 kWǵɄ3ͶK˩ 175 MWKǑĐGľĜ1EHG szligːǨ1ļ+ FIT-4Ś3 kWh3ɯǨ-40ˊ1tzgɷƑņͶD

FAņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶ93ƷUacuteHGAring5 3 MW 3ɯȗ3szligːǨampFɯouml (kWh) 415 MWͶ3 2ETH-ƕ)ĖĕG˚ugrave3ͳAETH10G ș1ʆUgrave 2-3D7 2-44FITͶoumlaRZn1GͶ3Ƹ1ĒltƐKʆampA3-3

Aring4ś3aRZn1ļ+G

Ugrave 2-3 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITuh AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave[]psup312

ɯȗ3

ˠȕ

MWͿ

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ ouml

MWhͿ

Ͷ 1ļampF3aRZn]bn

(DKK)

oumlłͳ (DKK)

ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 223 098 30 90 90 7497 23430 5250 224 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 223 098 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 227 100

(Nielsen et al 2010)

ĎȲ11 3Aring4reg3Ĵ3ʒ14Ġ=H0ampmZZr-ĽġG ĎȲ12 ĝ

19

Ugrave 2-4 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITu AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave]

ɯȗ

^Pc(MW)

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ

ouml (MWh)

Ͷ 1ļampF3aR

Zn]bn

(DKK)

ouml łͳ(DKK)

˚ugrave

(DKK) ʱĔTHORN

(DKK) ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 1650 6610 298 100 30 90 90 7497 2343 5250 1650 6900 295 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 1650 8920 273 092 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 990 5220 281 094

(Nielsen et al 2010)

˫3AringEņĺ3gg1ƷGDFAņĺ3ɯȗ1ƷGǞszligːǨ1ļ+

FIT 3ơƣKĖBJGUgrave 2-3 1ʆHGD1ǰAʪȽucircɞ3ˍͶ4ņĺgKOtildeamp 18 MW3ȣɱũĺ3Ͷ-GH4szlig3Ͷ-Ś3ɯouml kWhKļ1ampľĜ3 FIT1AƎ4=GUgrave 2-4 EszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT E3divideɱĔTHORNƖEHB34gɷƑũtzfrac12 3 MW3ɯȗ-Fȣɱũĺ3ɯȗ4 3frac141ˑ(GJG

FIT3ļɆszligːǨKɥGjn4currenˠŚHampˬOtildeşKƭGamp1ˬʹHGͶ3ǘŪ00G-G=ampH1DFgɷƑtz3OacuteKGjnAŪ00G

HE 2 3ʹ˩ɩKʘŚaRZnKĸUcirc-ĖTHORNHAE1ĪͲ0GľĜGszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT 4mZ3ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ʁǴɱɶȔOacute)ampˬOtildeş1ļ+ǕʘɱɶȔOacuteƭHGD1Gamp3A3-G szligːǨK FIT 3ļɆG3mjn4˚ugrave1DFźľ3ȝgtɣ GampǰAʪȽɱucircɞ

3ˍͶƛAaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ1)ǰAͺoumlɱ0gw-400G-G

$3ampǰʨɱ14Ͷoumlɯreg3ɅDFA10F20mZ-43ƏƉ3 FIT AumlJHGampɯoumlKļɆampɶȔOacuteƭ1G]bn0Gʫȁ0G

22 NDQ+ 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-4mZ1G 2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKG-ɥampmg42008 ƀ1˩ɩG4śǟHampaRZn3ſĹOacute1ļ+A3-GͶ93Ʒ]bn4^Pn3Ǽacute1DFŚ-40mZ-4ɯ]bnȣɱŚGD-GˬOtildeş MWampF3Ʒ]bn14ǰņ- 503GeacuteƀƄ3ɯouml MWh ampFƷ]bn3Ńuumlɞ4 15ǵɄ-G

221 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para mZ3ͶoumlɯaRZ-n4ˊ1Ū0Ͷǘ3Έ12ļͿ3ͶʺKɥG˩ɩW

PoP-4Ū0A 3ļ3ͶKɷʳɛG4ʵB0ŔKNJD1=ʹGGH4ͶK 1 ļccedilǗɱ1ʹGˡˢɱĉƋ0GE-GmZ14ņˠȕQOoyM3AringGbPBʟĴņ0A3-40ǰņˠȕ3b4Ͷ 20ļKˬʹGʱş 63 MWͿ

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹŚȉş4 19 MW-F$3gɷƑ4 80 mtz4 72 m-G2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ-ǰAˊɱ034 23 MW3Ͷ-F$3tz4 80 mgɷƑ4 93 m-G

(b) BL0+Ouml mZ3Ͷğ4ˊ1˝ğ-GampͶ3^PnɡƦɱ034āȷȮų10G

20

ˊɱ1ͶɅ4ǾŪ00)GȮųĸŻ$3Ģ-4ƀſĹͶ 7 msKGH4 2 MWͶtz 80 mͿ1ļ1ťszligːǨʢ 2500Ǩ1ɸƎG(Danish Energy Agency 2010)2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3 2009ƀƄ3szligːǨ4ſĹ 2639Ǩ-)amp2009ƀ3mZ3ͶɅ4żƀ3 88-2008 ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3szligːǨ4szligˀɥƀǘſĹ-ʢ 3000 Ǩ10GcurrenƦHGɫƧszligːǨ3LJŚOacute4mZszligiquest3ͶɅl`1GA3-402008ƀ1ˬʹH2009ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+˩ʙampA3-G

(c) ccedil-1 2008ƀƄ3deg˘ɱ0aRZnƷ]bn141100kW1529okWͿE 1300kW1807

okWͿ=-F$3ſĹ4 1250 kW1738 okWͿ-GEgraveȉ4 2008 ƀ1xZ1ampƔ2009ƀ 2010ƀ1ņŽ1frac12GɚƙG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ1GͶ3ʰƾ4IgraveIcircɡ^wbŋʢĸdegĵĸʚɡ3 4 ɶ-ȒƭH

GHE3ɶ$HHͶoumlɯƯ3ɣȹʰƾ3ʢ 25KĈG2008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlɯaRZn1currenƦHGɣȹʰƾ412MWh17oMWhͿ-G (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m4ƀ|b3Ouml 80-K˺GaRZnKɥGmZ1GȤ

ƯDz3Ͷ4ˊ1ƎƅOgraveŋʢ1DFK˺Gegrave3ĔTHORNKƎƅOgraveŋʢ1Ʒ FͶ

3ƯDzʿ43ļKɷDžeumlɥG-0Ʒ1ťGeumlɊ93ǓaeligǓƱ4szligOumlȖʿ3Ƴ˴

ʻyacutemacrEHG mZ3ɡƦɱ0aRZn4100Ouml-K˺GaRZn-Gż3aRZ

n-4Ouml1DG˺3otildeĜʢ 800)GͶoumlɯaRZn1ťGOgraveTHORNĮĔǴĖTHORNHė˃034 15ƀsup2atilde-G

2008 ƀƄ3ƎƅOgraveŋʢ3eumlő4ʢ 5ͼ-H4 5 ƀijŚHGͶoumlɯaRZn4reg3ƷȗɱbrvbarȐȣȵuumlƟ˟0HGampˊ1eumlőfrac120)GͶoumlɯaRZ

n3bZ˞įKʚɡ-Gegrave0ưȠGEͶ93Ʒ4bZfrac12˟0HG mZ1GǝˠaRZn3ľĜʣɤɞ4ż 9Έ11-G3amp 5~73bZ

Nė˃10G3EA1983ƀE 2002ƀ=-3mZ˯icircȇƉĕƊƯ3 OMX203bZNſĹ 72)amp3ȣͶoumlɯaRZn3bZȣɱfrac12JGĎȲ13 (Saabye 2003)

(f) s_N3N9A Ͷ30ĔTHORNɅ4NordPool źľK 3oumlłFIT Ə-3Egraveȉ˚ugrave-Gʬ˺

ǙbrvbarȐʿ3Ͷ3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢK 5ƀ=-ƇG-GĎȲ14HE3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢ4 Nord Pool3Yacuteəźľ1Ɇ ʴʫHG

(g) Q54Q1 mg4 Economy of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ1

ļ+A3-G

222 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para 2008 ƀ1mZ-ŐampȳaRZn40HA˩ɩG4ƈˬȠ1GȳQ

OoyMɯ4ˊ1Ǖƃ3˴ėKƖEHG10G3˴ė4THORNǸʋKEHG

A3-szligːǨ 50000Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml kWhampF3THORNǸ1ťǰfrac12Egraveȉ3A31˴ė

ĎȲ13 Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark ĎȲ14 10ƀijŚEgraveȉKNjAEligGǝˠ3ɯAɰľG

21

aeligHG10GHornz Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand I amp II4THORNǸʋKʪśɠampaRZn-GAnholt3ǝȳQOoyM3THORNǸǴ4 2010ƀ 6DZ1ʨpoundG$3ˬOtildeş4 400 MW-2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-1KŐG10G UoN13ǞƉĎȲ15QOoyMA˴ėHGUoNǞƉQOoyM3ˬʹlaquo

ƖEHH5Ͷ1Aĝ PdlOz[ɥHG10Gɠķ=-1 2 3UoNǞƉ3QOoyMƈˬHG

(b) ccedil-1 mZ1GȳQOoyMɯbrvbarȐʿ3Ʒ]bn4˴ėiacute3THORNǸʋKʪampʢ 200 MW3

ņˠȕQOoyM1ťʢ 2700Έ3000kW3753Έ4170okWͿ-G ȳQOoyMKĴatilde3oumlʡʭȳŃĶˬOtilde1ʡGamp3]bn4mZ-4Ĵƺ

GampaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷʱͳŪ00)GɢĿƐ˰Egravebrvbarntilde3ȷƂĸ˰Egrave3]

bnAĴƺG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳQOoyM3ʰƾ4ʭ˩mgEHF=ampȳQOoyMɥʪǬʳ

ƞthornKƭGamp1ʄśƟmZ3ņˠȕȳQOoyM3ɣȹʰƾ4ĸ

Ļ3ɛȯ1DF 18MWh25oMWhͿE 20MWh28oMWhͿ=-G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mZ3ņˠȕQOoyM3˺4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ȪʙǴszligiquest1ɀ)˖JH

GsmOjZƷ˖E3OgraveTHORN˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM1eumlɥHGraquoH4

aRZn93˺Ə-˖JHGJ-40Ϳ˴ ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4ż 50ƍ3Ƿȣɞ-˺HG mZ3oumlmiddotʇ3Ƿ]bn4ʢ 112ͼ Ouml]bn4 4555˩ʙHG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) s_N3N9A ˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml3ijŚEgraveȉKĖĕ)

GijŚEgraveȉ4THORNǸdb-ȪŚHGTHORNǸEgraveȉ4˺ǙHampƿȔ-40szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ĔTHORN Nord PooloumlĕƊ-3ł-ƖEHampƔ1ȪŚHGHorns Rev II3ˑǸEgraveȉ4 0069kWh0096okWhͿRoslashdsand II4 0085kWh0118o kWhͿ-GźľEgraveȉ1ťGEgraveȉ˚ugrave4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿTHORNǸEgraveȉ1Ɯ NjAEligGźľEgraveȉTHORNǸEgraveȉDFľĜQOoyM

Eʡʭɥʿ1ŸͳKǓƱJ250E0 ˴ėiacute-0G4UoN13ǞƉ3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 22000 Ǩ1G

=- 0034kWh0047okWhͿD7Ͷeumlɥ-Greg3˚ugraveKĖĕG

(f) Q54Q1 Horns Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand II3ƈˬ]bnʱͳ1Gmg4eumlɥė˃0agraveɱƥĽmZ3ȳ

QOoyMɯ3ŦŞD7ȳQOoyMƯDzʿ0E71ȳQOoyM3˺

ʿ93ˁĕF˺ȆE1THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙEƖampA3-G

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacute3ȑ˞-G

ĎȲ15 UoN13aRZn4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3THORNǸʋKʪ1˖JHGȳƈˬaRZnŚ

ʻHG3 23QOoyM1divide13ȳɯƯUoNɧ˻db1D)ƈˬHG

22

Ugrave 2-5 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ16

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ17 ȳ

2008ƀĎȲ18 ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 23 23 23 Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 3 91 90 ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2700 4300 3865

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 25 25 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1250 2844 3000

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash (1738) (3953) (4170) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 12 (17) 20 (28) 18 (25) $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 3 (4) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆ Economics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010

Ugrave 2-6 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 50 55 45 Ƿeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 110 112 112 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 80 45 26 Ƿ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 20 66 74

WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 52 88 95 Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 13 10 13 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 25 25 25

FXn $US 139 139 139 FXn DKK ndashndashndash 7353 ndashndashndash 7353

ǛΆEconomics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aeligIacuteɥļ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ

Ugrave 2-7 NDQ+uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 447 (621) 28 (39) 447 (621) źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 37 (51) 70 (97) 85 (118) FITǕʘǴ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 22000 50000 50000 ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

LVRT ˮȲ 6ĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ǛΆNielsen et al 2010 Danish Energy Agency 2008 Danish Energy Agency 2009 ĎȲ16 2007ƀ14mZ-ǝamp1ƈˬHampͶ40)amp ĎȲ17 2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ȳ1Ͷ4ƈˬH0)ampȳQOoyM 3ƈˬG4˩ɩȠ1)amp

$3( 24Ǖƃ3˴ė˩ɩ1ļ+A3-ȟF64UoN13aRZn-)ampHorns Rev II3ǰʨɱ0Ʒ3ȪŚ4 2007ƀ10Hampamp3ǘŒ4 Horns Rev II3LJŚ]bn1ļ+GRoslashdsand II3ƷȪŚ4 2008ƀ10H$Hĝƀ3]bn3Ȉƻ0)G

ĎȲ18 -ɥampAring42008ƀ1ƈˬŋʢʴʫHamp Roslashdsand II3THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙG ˮȲ 6 LVRT (Low Voltage Ride Through) Ķɾfrac12Ǩ1AͶ0ͶoumlɯƯ3KʮʯʡʭŘŚƄKʰƾGȗ˃

23

223 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc 2008ƀ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ93ƷmgKɥ LCOEK˩ʙAring 1Auml1ʆampđɔb3

LCOEȣampđɔb4Wind Task263szligđdivideĴ3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn-G đɔb3 6 Ńǘ3ƐKmZ3brvbarAringȣěŃǘmZ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOE 1Ɛ

GKǥE1ampđɔbmZ3brvbarAringKȣampʫȁKx 2-2 1ʆmZ3ſĹɱaRZn3 LCOE42008ƀ14 61MWh85oMWhͿ-H4đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿDFA 7MWh10oMWhͿfrac12)amp

x 2-2 NDQ+rmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup319

(b) BL0+dj đɔb3aRZn3aeligouml4szligːǨ 2600ǨKBBĮ)ampǞ 2008ƀ1Őamp

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24

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25

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26

Ugrave 2-8 2007 2008NDQ+uumljfrac14divide LCOEpsup321

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

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(LCOE) euroMWh

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70 (97)

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(110)

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rOtildemiddot

Danish Wind Industry Association httpwindpowerorgenknowledgestatisticsthe_danish_markethtml September 2010 (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)

Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2007 2008 (Danish Energy Agency 2008) Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2008 2009 (Danish Energy Agency 2009)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Ministry of Climate and Energy National handlingsplan for vedvarende energi i Danmark 2010 (In English National Action

ĎȲ21 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampĔɲʱͳͶoumlɯǕʘͽPdlO

zD7yacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜAG

27

Plan for RE in Denmark) (Kemin 2010)

Nielsen et al Economy of Wind Turbines 2010 EUDP (Nielsen et al 2010) (Original title Vindmoslashllers Oslashkonomi)

Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark (Saabye 2003)

28

Aring 3Auml lt8

31 lt8uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

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2009ƀȳQOoyM3ʖ 1Ě0)amp Alpha VentusʓŶampH1DFȳ3ɯŧǽŐ=GA3ǴƒHGoPkǕƃ4 2015ƀǶ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʢ 25 GW1GɶȔKɯ˘G

x 3Ă1 lt8uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

2000 ƀoPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4Ĵatildeʱɯouml3 16KĈsup2ǽ3otildeĜ4ņŽ1Ǥ8ƀƔ14 620)GcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3ŀdivideoPkǕƃ1DGɺSrY3ĕFʩgtKʾƬG3otildeĜ4notƔAǤKʯGcurrenƦHGUgrave 3-1 4oPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ĐD7ŧǽ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 3-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀşdivideKʆampA3-G

29

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ȳ 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 100

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312 s_CcedilN3N9A

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30

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31

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G3aRZn^Pn4 Borkum1G East FrisianŴ3ʢ 40 kmȫĜ3āȷ1frac14ʹȦȻʢ 30 m-G3ȷųE3ȦȻ3ʪȽɱEacuteɲKƖGamp14Śȉaeligoumlʢ 5 MW3ȳͶƛ˞10G3^Pn3szligːǨ4 3700Ǩ10GcurrenƦHG

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3ȳQOoyMKEHampľƯ1D7ȻȦĻ1ƈˬGamp3Ʒ]bn4ɪ

ſĹDFA3230kW 4490okWͿ3]bn3atildeˮ4ͶļʅŃƯzʗ-Gʡʭ93ʡ4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿ3micro-GampaRZn3Ʒ]bn14ʡʭ93

ʡ]bn4Ġ=H0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳͶoumlɯ3ʰƾ43ʰƾDFA˒0)GȷųEHG-

ǷĵEȳ3Ͷ=-3əlaquoħ3]bn0GE1ʰƾ14atildeD7ń3bgj

y3laquoacuteD7ƛ˞0ˡŤBIgraveʪȽʚɡBƴ˗ʚɡˌˋordf3ɴˡ)amp]bnĠ=HGoP

k3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ƀʰƾ4123kW171okWͿ10GcurrenƦHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȳ3aRZn3ƷŞ143ľĜDFAeumlɲɞƛ˞10Gȳ3Ƿeumlɲɞ12ͿA

Oumleumlɲɞ65ͿA3ľĜDFA0GOumlǷȣɞ7ť 3Ϳ4ƦŚHampaRZnȣŚ-Gś14aRZn3˺Ȓ1D)Ū)GAring5aRZnˇ

iquest-G4ub`n1DF˺G0Ϳė˃ƟAG

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ȳͶoumlɯ3ouml4EEG3 FIT1D)ƱƮHGƦŚampm1˧5EEG20041ļ+

otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 91 MWh127 oMWhļǷǛ4 619 MWh860 oMWhͿ-G3ampotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4ȷųE3aRZn^Pn30E71ȦȻ1ļ+ 145 ƀǓƱJHG10G

(f) Q54Q1 mg4 EEG(2004)D7 Deutsche WindGuard GmbH ZSW3amp1Acircƭamp EEG(2008) Ɔț1Gʉŕ

ɱĽġǮ1ļ+

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 3-354sup21G LCOEccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacuteK˘

32

Ugrave 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 2 2 NA 5 Ͷļǘ ļ 5 5 NA 12 ɯ szligːǨ 2260 2260 NA 3700

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA 20 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1259 (1750) 1373 (1908) NA 3230 (4490)

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 4571 (635) 4633 (644) NA 123 (171) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 149 (207) 152 (211) NA ndashndashndash $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

Ugrave 3-4 lt8uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 55 55 NA 65

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 95 95 NA 120 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 70 70 NA 70

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 30 30 NA 30 WACC ͼ 56 56 NA 68

Ǵ ƀ 13 13 NA 15 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 298 298 NA 298

FXn $US 139 139 NA 139

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard Destatis

Ugrave 3-5 lt8uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 79 (110) 78 (108) NA 84 (117) FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA 20

ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ

ƀ NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 16 16 NA 16 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

323 lt8oumlRBL0+yuml2008ĀrmicroQ1-1plusmnecirc

x 3-2EoPk3 LCOE85MWh 118oMWhͿǷĽġǮ-Yacute1ampđɔbDFA˒ccedilG$3ɡɦKsup21IJʆG

33

x 3-2 lt8uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup323

324 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) BL0+dj LCOE 3KAampEG34aRZn3śʷ-GʾEHGđɔb3ş

4ƀszligːǨ 2630ǨoPk3ļǷaRZn3szligːǨ4ƀ 2260Ǩ$HDFA4G1frac12

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4 1373 kW1908o kWͿ-đɔbDFA 76

kW106okWͿfrac12)ampLCOE1˧5H4ʢ 3MWh4oMWhͿȿ1ɸƎG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAʢ 7MWh10oMWhͿH

4ŚǴɏȏ3śǟQOoyMũˠȕ01DGcurrenOtildeĦ3Igraveʚ]bn3Ǥ)ampɡɦ1DG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 oPk3aRZnđɔb3Ÿɮ4ʢ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-H4˺Ȓ

31įG

(e) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4ƦŚ0

325 s_F(=2E

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯ14EEG1ļ+ FITɥHGoPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn EEG2004G4 EEG20093-ƲJHGF$Hsup2ń3ĔTHORN4˟=H0E1oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎGamp3reg3PdlOzKŨTHORNG4ƧIJHE$3currenƦA0

ĎȲ23 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4ĭǂcopyTHORN3ampđɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3

Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

34

x 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup324

326 aringmH7B

x 3-31ʆampD15MWh7oMWhͿ3yacuteYjɣ FH4szligːǨʰƾ3Ÿɮ1DGA3-G

33

-LoPk3QOoyM3Aring4Śȉaeligouml 2MW3Ͷ 5ļ-ȒƭHGaRZn3szligːǨ42260ǨƦŚG3m3ƦŚ1ļ+LCOE485MWh118oMWhͿLJŚHampNjAEligHamp FIT1DFaRZnɯǨȐʿ3yacuteYjampFʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ10GǛ3Oacute4 EEG-ˠŚHG

Ugrave 3-6 lt8Iumlsectpsup325

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

85 (118) NA 135

(188) ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

79 (110) NA 84

(117)

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

5 (7) NA 46

(64)

rOtildemiddot

BMU Leitszenarion 2009 ndash Bundesministerium fuumlr Umwelt Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit Langfristszenarien und Strategien fuumlr den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland ndash Leitszenario 2009 (2009)

Destatis Statistisches Bundesamt wwwdestatisde (last access December 2009) ĎȲ24 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAG ĎȲ25 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

35

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 32 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122007 (2008)

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 34 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122008 (2009)

Deutsche WindGuard Deutsche WindGuard GmbH on behalf o Zentrum fuumlr Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Wuumlrttemberg (ZSW) Vorbereitung und Begleitung bei der Erstellung eines Erfahrungsberichtes gemaumlszlig sect 20 EEG (2008)

EEG 2004 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich (2004)

EEG 2009 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich und zur Aumlnderung damit zusammenhaumlngender Vorschriften (2008)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

36

Aring 4Auml JN6

41 JN6uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

411 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬʹş42000ƀ3 447 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 2121 MW1ŀdivide3( 228 MWȳͶoumlɯ3ş0)GͶoumlɯ1DGƀ3ɯouml42000ƀ3 08 TWhE 2008ƀ3 43 TWh1ŀdivideGǞ2008ƀ3Uh3ʱȸouml4 119 TWh-)ampͶoumlɯ3ʁǴɶȔ42008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 2000 MWdivideG-G3ɶȔ3ƭ1DFˬʹȽgtG4ƈˬ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʱş4ʢ 4000 MW10G2009ƀ14950 MW3ȳͶoumlɯ3THORNǸŐHGȳͶoumlɯ3ɶȔOacute42020 ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 6000 MW 1G-Graquo EU 3aumlɣė˃SrYƿplusmn3ʻyacuteKɄGamp34 2020ƀ=-3ɶȔOacute45178 MW-G x 4-1 D7Ugrave 4-1 4-2 4D7ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71ěƀƄ3

ʁǴɱD7ǴɱɶȔOacute3currenɂ-Gszlig3şmg4ěƀǶ3mg-Gɏ1ɫƧ-GU

h4ǠœͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ14ɶȔOacuteKŚ0

x 4-1 JN6uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 and Rijksoverheid 2010

2000ƀ3ƀŨTHORNş4ĝƀǶ3ʦʏˬOtildeşĝ ş1ˬŚHampUgrave 4-21ʆȜģƀŨTHORNş4

ǑĐampͶoumlɯaRZn3ȜģˬOtildeşKĠL-GUgrave 4-2 1ʆamp2009 ƀE 2012 ƀ=- 2012ƀE 2020ƀ=-3ěǴ3ȜģƀŨTHORNş4ě3Ǵ3ſĹƀŨTHORNşKʆGsup23˘1ʆˬOtildeş4UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ1ļ+ˬOtildeş3currenɂ-GRijksoverheid 2010Ϳ

37

Ugrave 4-1 JN6IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0447 0485 0672 0905 1075 1224 1453 1641 1921 2727 6000

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0108 0228 0228 5178

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 andRijksoverheid 2010

Ugrave 4-2 JN6regwoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0038 0038 0187 0233 0170 0149 0229 0188 0280 0202 0409

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0 0 0 0619

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010Rijksoverheid 2010

412 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1ǝamp0 FIT ĽŌ˩ɩ-G SDE ˮȲ 7ŨTHORNHamp3 SDE bX3-Ͷoumlɯ3ś3ɯ]bn1˟ĜotildeŀĕEgraveȉoumlčEgraveȉ1divideǓƱJHGE1aumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗93Ʒ

1fynʌiacuteUacuteLjʹKɥGjnSDEotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3Ȃʩgtatilde-ȏ˪HG

42 JN6VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-Uh3deg˘ɱ0D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZnK˷ǥG

421 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh4 2003ƀ1szligːǨ|b-ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎG FITiacuteƄKŨTHORNamp2006ƀ=-4

szligːǨ 18000 Ǩ=-3aRZn1ťǰ- 10 ƀ FIT NjAEligHamp2008 ƀE3 FIT 1DGǓǎ4szligːǨ 2200 Ǩsup23aRZn1ť˖JHG10)ampſĹszligːǨ4ƀʢ2000Ǩ-$3ˊɱ0ʜı4ƀ 16002800Ǩ-G Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4FITǓǎ3˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZnKʆGĎȲ263

aRZn-4$3Pq`NlOz3ņĄǕɱ1ś˖ė˃0]bn3|KˬŚGdeg˘ɱ0

34 15 MW3ũˠȕQOoyM-ͶoumlɯaRZn3ņĄ 23 MW3ͶgɷƑ 90 mtz 60Έ80 mͿKAuml)G3ĸĻ-4iacuteˬEHFHE3ĸĻ-4tz 4060 m3 450800 kWͶˊɱ-G

(b) ccedil-1 aRZn3deg˘ɱ0Ʒ]bn4 1000kW1390okWͿE 1600kW2224okWͿ

=-Fˊ1Ʒ]bnszligːǨAŅ0)G

ˮȲ 7 SDE (stimulering duurzame energie) UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrYD7ɖAtildeʬ1GǓǎbX ĎȲ26 đɔaRZn134Ƿccedilǿ-ɥampđɔb13KƿA3-401ȲƧ

38

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3atildeˮ4ɯouml1D)ŃuumlGA3 9Έ12 kWh13Έ17 okWhͿż4ɥ

ŐE 5ƀ3^wbŋʢ1DGͿˬOtildeş1D)ŃuumlGA3 25kW35okWͿĸdegʡʭʡ]bnKĠͿ-GƔʿ3Oacute4aRZn1D)˒ɮ0Gś3ʰƾ4ƀ 23otildeĜ-ŀdivideGƦŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷKēǧampƀ|b3Ouml 80-˺GaR

ZnKɥG˚ugrave3NjAEligʿ-GͿǕƃ4ˇŹǷɞ 15D7Oumlɞ 6ͼKȜƦŚGoumlmiddotʇ4ub`n1ļ+˺K˖)GȰlaquoʌ4 255ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A 0ĔTHORNɅ4Yacuteəźľ-3Ǵŋʢ1DGoumlł-FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ1D)yacuteYj

K)Gyumlƽɱ0dividePdlOzfynSrYƷotildeƊ1D)NjAEligHG

3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4˹ʌė˃0ĔTHORNɅKƾamp0ɯbrvbarȐʿKĠ==0brvbarȐiquest1ɥHF1

43iacuteƄ1DFƯƖʌ 421ťeumlɲKƖGɯbrvbarȐʿAG

(f) Q54Q1 -ɥampmg4Uh3 FIT otildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3˩ʙ-ɥampđɔaRZn3agrave˘mg-

G (Lensink et al 2009 Cleijne et al 2010)

422 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh3ȳͶoumlaRZn-4ƈˬ˴ėKƖǰņ 50 m2ˠȕ3QOoyMKƈˬG-

Gƕ)deg˘ɱ0ȳaRZn3ˬOtildeş4 100Έ300 MW-Fʡʭ1NjAEligHGȜģɯouml4szligːǨ 3300Έ4000ǨɸƎ-G2008ƀ1 Prinses AmaliaQOoyMřƭamp1ʆmg14$3]bnȒ4ƛAĠ=H0

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4 2500Έ3500kW3475Έ4865okWͿ-G2008ƀ1řƭampaRZn4$

3ǘƀntilde1Famp˴ė3iacuteǼacute3ampȣɱũĺ3 V90ĺ 2 MWͶKɥG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ɥbrvbarȐʿ3ɥśʷ3Ū01DFʰƾ14ņ0ʄśƟœķGƀʰƾ4 90

kW125okWͿLJŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZn|b3˺ȒKɥF$3Ouml3otildeĜ4 50-GPrinces

AmaliaQOoyM3˺4aRZnȢ1˖)GWACC3ƦŚOacute4ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3Ƿ]bn3ordmOacute-H4 NuonShellƯDzG OWEZecirc3Ǡœ3ȳQOoyM1ɥEHampOacute-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A Ǡœ3QOoyM4Ǣ MEP˩ɩ1ļ+˚ugraveKĖF97MWh135oMWhͿ3ijŚ

FITĽŌKƖampfynPdlOz3˚ugraveɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 3mg4Ľɯ˘$3reg3agraveɱ1eumlɥ-GƥĽ1ļ+A3-ƥĽ1ŸɮGľĜ4ʆHamp

ƥĽ1ļ+m[-˚)G

39

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘1ěƀ1ƦŚampD7ȳͶoumlɯ3OacuteKʆ2007ƀ3aRZn]bn4 2008ƀǨ

ɏ3n1G-ʆGUgrave 4-5 3ouml3źľEgraveȉ14ĕƊ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnǴŋʢ3otildeƊɞĠ=HG

Ugrave 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 1 15 120 NA Ͷļǘ ļ 1 5 60 NA ɯ szligːǨ 2000 2200 3350 NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 15 NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1120 (1557) 1325 (1842) 3315 (4608) NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 40 (56) 24 (33) 92 (128) NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) NA NA NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

Ugrave 4-4 JN6uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 5 5 5 NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 15 15 12 NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 50 NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 50 NA WACC ͼ 60 60 79 NA

Ǵ ƀ 10 15 10 NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 255 255 255 NA

FXn $US 139 139 139 NA

Ugrave 4-5 JN6uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (81) 56 (78) 59 (82) NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 663 (922) 28 (39) 97 (135) NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ 37 20 44 NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

43 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ƛ˞0˴ėKƖG3ampogP0)

G

40

431 JN6uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 4-2 JN6rmicroQ1plusmnecircxpsup327

(b) BL0+dj Uh3Ͷ3ːɞ4ʢ 25-FszligːǨ 2200 ǨͿđɔb3 30DFAfrac12FIT 1DG

˚ugrave4szligːǨ 2200 ǨKGG4 SDE ˠiacute3˳ʧKʾƬ$HDFAfrac12ˬŚHGͿamp2200ǨDFAŅɯGamp3PdlOz4ŚHGE1˞0˞į4B4FͶȯ-G

432 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4Đ3ĪͲ1EcircGė˃ƟGszligːǨ 2200Ǩsup2KɯGPdl

Oz4ŚHGͶ3ˬ˩$HHBBɮ0)Fƕ)EgraveȉŘ0Gė˃Ɵ4ǃ-0

Aring5ĝ ɯȗKAuml)AgzoũľĜƷ]bnfrac12szligːǨŀdivideG

(b) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ0)Gį4ĸdeg3-Fƀʢ 10kW15okWͿ-G

(c) ccedilntildeacirciacute-113T-1 đɔbȣGUh3Ͷoumlɯ4Ȱlaquoʌȣɱfrac12 (255ͼ) eumlɏAGǑĐ]bn

4ʾƬ0

433 s_F(=2E

Uh3ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ43ʍ͵3PdlOziacuteƄ3ơƣKĖG-G$30A34 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ-2007 ƀ=-1HK˞ȨampaRZn1ťMEP ˮȲ 81DF 10 ƀijŚotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligH2008 ƀsup21HK˞ȨampaRZn3ľĜ4SDE 1DF 15 ƀŃuumlotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligHG3 FITiacuteƄ1divideaRZn3ľĜ4ǰņƷ]bn 600kW834okWͿ1ťƷ]bn3 443ʌdž3Ʒ˚ugrave (EIA) D7otildeƊɞ 13fynKeumlɥG

ĎȲ27 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ ˮȲ 8 MEP (Milieukwaliteit Elektriciteitsproductie) Uh3oumlɣɤ1GȰƓ

41

-G

x 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup328

434 aringmH7B

Uh3yacuteYj42007 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn1˧5Ugrave 4-6 đɔͿʢ ndash36 MWhndash50oMWhͿPpb3Oacute10)GH4Đ3MEP3 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3ˬ˩3Ș1DGA3-˚ugraveͳ3ļɵ0)ampoumlEgraveȉK 2Έ3 MWh3Έ4 oMWhͿfrac12ƦŚamp1DGoumlEgraveȉ 6~8 MWh 1ǤG1HŪ0AoumlEgraveȉ4ͶoumlaRZn4ż1ͺoumlɱ0A310)ampƔʮiacuteƄ-G SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ1ļ+ 2008 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn143ȘĕFHyacuteYj4 ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿBBPpb3Oacute10)GěʍaRZn3ɯ]bn3Ž4ndash3 DFA4G1ņɏ1ȲƧG3ampndash3MWh4oMWhͿPpb3Oacute4eKņĮGA3-40 ȳͶoumlɯ3b3yacuteY4Ɗʯ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-)ampH4ɷDžƖampyacuteƥ

Ľ1ļ+A3-40Princes AmaliaQOoyM3Ȫʙ1İɣ amp4ǥE-G

44

Uh4ŧǽ1A 2020ƀ1AD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Dzdz0ɶȔOacuteKŚGɠķ3 SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ4HKśɠGamp3ǰA˞0k-G43 Eacute3ccedilǿʫȁEUh3brvbarAring1GyacuteYj4ʹ˒-40JG ugraveKƖampɯouml4szligːǨ 2200Ǩ=-1iacuteHG3ǘOacute4Uh3Ͷȯ1ċampA3-G2200Ǩsup23ɯ1ťGPdlOz4ŚHFHAƷ]bnfrac123į-Gė˃ƟGʰƾ4ĸdeg3ampȣɱ

0)G

ĎȲ28 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

42

Ugrave 4-6 JN6Iumlsectpsup329

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

91 (126)

94 (131)

166 (231) NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

127 (177)

96 (133)

161 (224) NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash36 (-50)

ndash3 (-4)

5 (7) NA

rOtildemiddot

Cleijne JW SM Lensink and CJ Faasen (2010) SDE Wind op land met vollasturen en differentiatie [SDE wind onshore with full load hours and differentation] ECN-E--10-001 Petten January 2010

Lensink SM JW Cleijne M Mozaffarian AE Pfeiffer S L Luxembourg and GJ Stienstra (2009) Eindadvies basisbedragen 2010 [Final advice SDE premium base rates 2010] ECNKEMA ECN-E--09-058 Petten November 2009

Rijksoverheid (2010) Nationaal actieplan voor energie uit hernieuwbare bronnen Richtlijn 200928EG [National Renewable Energy Action Plan Directive 200928EG] Den Haag June 2010

Statistics Netherlands (2010) online databank httpstatlinecbsnl VoorburgHeerlen August 2010

ĎȲ29 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

43

Aring 5Auml 1CN

51 1CNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bP3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯŮ1G=ampɚŚ3 EU 3ɶȔ1ļ+ CO2ǃaeligethȿ3amp

1 2020 ƀ 2030 ƀ1ƦŚHGɶȔOacuteKʆE1ˠiacute3ȂʩgtK˷ǥGraquo$30Ȓƭ˞ʥK˟ɷordfȾoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3]bn3ƐKŪ0Gamp1ɠķ˖JHGͿ E1 2008ƀ1GbPźľ3deg˘ɱ0QOoyM3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) K˷ǥ$3sup3

ŚKregĴ1GͶoumlɯ3]bnȣG

511 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac12frac34laquo

2009ƀǶǨɏ-Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4 19149 MW1bP3oumlʡʭ1 3ɭɶ1ņ0Ʌ0)GbP3Ͷoumlɯɯ4 90ƀdegĄ51Ő=F2001ƀsup24ǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşƀſĹ-ʢ 1800MWdivideHampˠiacuteǔȜHamp 2004ƀ 2007ƀ14Ĵɟplusmn 4362004D7 6612006Ϳ3şņŽ1ŀdivideamp3ˠiacute3ǔȜ1DF$HKeumlɥampǝˠaRZn3ʑ(EumlHamp

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯouml42009ƀ3bP3SrYʱ˞3ʢ 14KĈG x 5-14ŅĴȣ3ťƀ-G 2008ƀ=-1bP1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3H=-3ʦʏˬOtildeş

ƀŨTHORNşKʆG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3mg4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3SrY˖uuml˩ɩNREAPͿ1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)2020ƀ3currenɂ4SrY˞3 20Kaumlɣė˃SrY- EU3ɶȔƭ1ğampǘOacute-G

x 5-1 1CNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

x 5-1 4bP-H=-1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşD7notƔˬʹHG˟=HGˬOtildeşKʆG=ampƀŨTHORNşKx 5-21ʆ2009ƀbPǕƃ4 2010ƀE 2012ƀ=-3ěƀ1ˬʹG MWşKiacuteGamp3otildeƎKŚG1amp=ampoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3ƐKȿ Gamp3˩ɩKnotƔ3Ȱplusmn1ʩgtL-ɯ˘ampszlig3aumlɣė˃SrY]aRr`3

Ĝ˩ş 6000 MW4ʱoumlĕƊ3 25KĈH4ʪȽĊȗ-4ɚ1]bn-GͿ

44

bP1GȳͶoumlɯ30Ł4ņȍ0-F3ampȮų3ȦȻ 50m 10)Gƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ-4ͳ0ļʅ˞0F$3ampHE3aRZn3ś˖ė˃Ɵ4iacute

HGE1aacuteʡɏ-4ȺĀŇɓWbļĸ1ˬʹHG]uPo^PZWbgw3

ɯ1DG~nrjZœķGampNZdbşEHampA310)G

Ugrave 5-1 1CNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

16 22 34 49 62 85 100 116 151 167 23 35

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 5-2 1CNoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

16 06 12 15 13 23 15 16 35 16 15 14

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

512 s_CcedilN3N9A

Ȱɱ1currenƦHGEacuteɲKĖGamp14ͶoumlɯaRZnKɚecirc3iacuteƄ131ccedil͵Gƛ˞G

ʟĴ3ȉ˴ŚiacuteƄĝȓͿH4ͶoumlɯaRZnʡʭ1UacuteYacuteDžʯ-GũłbrvbarȐʿAacuteocircouml

KĕE250E0Ϳamp=ampEgraveȉˠiacuteHGamp-GĴɟƿplusmn 6612007-˘ǥHampD1Ͷoumlɯ3ǓƱbX14ˠiacuteǛbXźľĎɡ3 2G

ˠiacuteǛbX4QOoyMƯDzʿƸampǴ1GͶoumlɯ3ʻyacuteɱ0ijŚĕƊ

Egraveȉ-Gx 5-23ǘOacuteͿ ǰʨɱ0Egraveȉ 1Ǩ3ɪEgraveȉoumlPdlOz1ļ+oumlčźľEgraveȉ3ʩgtĜJ-Ȫ=GI3źľĎɡ4ĽŌ13AĤ5HGƕ)ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿĖĕGǛ4

Egraveȉ1ŷęHG10F3Egraveȉż1frac12ľĜ4ǰfrac12Egraveȉsup2-H5ˬ

EHGx 5-34ˠiacuteǛ3đɔOacuteKʆG

x 5-2 Ucircgntilde1)QEAcirc ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

45

ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ4ntildeǡźľ3ɯ˩ɩKNjaeligcurrenɂKɥ3˩ɩś3ɯouml3currenɂ˶ŸKȿE

D1GE1==0ĸĻ1ƈˬHampQOoyMɸuml1˚Ugrave-˶ŸKŪ0Gamp

1==0aRZn[ĀHG3`bl1DFN``bl3ȴɥ

ʬ˺ǙKǰĀG-$3]bn34ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿǓƱ)G2008 ƀ4ʢ 15 MWh205oMWhͿ-)amp ˫3Oacute4Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120071D)ȸʿEgraveȉƿǘ (CPI) 1ļ+ǭǝH2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝ

ɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp x 5-34Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073ǟ˖sup2Ɣ3 FITǛiacuteƄ3ŃuumlKʆampA3-G2007ƀĴɟƿplusmn 6612007

1DF CPI1Ȯ) FITǔ˨HG10F2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp2010ƀ14ǭǝHampOacutePpb10FntildeƀKĮ)ampH4 CPIe1)ampamp-G bP3ʡʭɥʿ-G Red Electrica de Espantildea (REE) 1DH5ˬ Otildeş3 94ijŚEgraveȉĕU`

1D)ɥHGampčoumlźľEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ƐH0x 5-4Ϳ

x 5-3 ~BINcentIcircceyuml~[umlāntildeĀ ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

x 5-4 dividejo~uumljfrac14divideethyuml2008Ā ǛΆ Spanish TSO (REE)

Ͷoumlɯ3ņccedil4čźľ-ɷDžłHGampĽ4Egraveȉ1ņŷęHŇɓWbEgraveȉȦouml

ɯ3ɛȯ0E71Ĵźľ1G CO2 Egraveȉ3Egraveȉ1ƐG3amp 2008 ƀ14ſǡEgraveȉ4 6443MWh8956oMWhͿ0F2007ƀ3 3935MWh5470oMWhͿK 64Į)ampH4ɠķ=-1˫HampEgraveȉ-ǰAͳ-G Ͷoumlɯ3źľĕƊEgraveȉKx 5-31oumlčEgraveȉKx 5-51ʆYacute1ampD1Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073brvbar

Aring-43Egraveȉ4E=-3ʜıatilde1GſǡoumlčEgraveȉ1ļ+EgraveȉĽŌ3Ĝ˩Oacute-G

46

x 5-5 dividejBQK[umllcedilyuml2003Ą2009Ā ǛΆOMEL and Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

52 1CN 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-2008 ƀ1GbP3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKHKreg3đdivideĴ1GͶoumlɯɯ3ěʍmȣG

521 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

ɚecirciquestiacute13`blKeumlɥGamp14bP3QOoyM3ˠȕ 50 MWK40E0ˬ ʹampQOoyM3ſĹˠȕ4ʢ 25 MW-˩ ʙQOoyM3ˬOtildeşK 2007ƀA 2008ƀA 30MWsup3ŚG Ğɶ3ɥǨ4Śȉaeligouml-ƀ 1700ǨE 2350Ǩ=-==-G2008ƀ3szligĴſĹ4 2085

ǨͿ=ampaRZn3đɔOacute4 2007ƀ- 2200Ǩ2008ƀ- 2150Ǩ-)amp bP-ɥEHGszlig3ʪȽm-4aRZn3ɥǴ4 20ƀGraquoH4Q

OoyM3śʷ4E0Ϳ2007ƀ 2008ƀ14aRZn3Py^PZK 20ƀG

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹˠȕ4 1985 kW-2007ƀ3 1621 kWEJ1ŀdivideamp3m-ȏ˪G34 2000 kW3Ͷ0J(3QOoyM-4 2 MW3Ͷ 15ļͿ-G

x 5-6 2008THORNOacuteuumlegrave2bszlig ǛΆ Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

47

(b) ccedil-1 ƀ3Ʒʱͳ0)amp34Zb III D7 IV ˮȲ 93ņĺͶoumlɯ˙ʹˬʹHampE-

FƎeacuteEĶʡʭ93ʡBěʍʌcurrenɂHampJ-40 $H1AJEƀ4ĎǺǛ]bn3frac121DFͶ3]bnȿŪG=ampǕĊȗˠiacute3

Ńǭ1DFͶ3˞Afrac12ampQOoyM93Ʒʱͳ1ĈGͶ3]bn4ʢ 70Έ73ͼ-G3]bn4ĎǺǛ3Egraveȉɠķ3[jo]o1Ɇ ampƛ˞0ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵ1šDž1EcircG

2007ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn14Ʒ]bn4 1233kW1714okWͿ2008ƀ14 1250kW1738okWͿLJŚHG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾAaeligoumlƶiacuteȒatildeoumlȸ3amp3oumlǛˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵŀamp1DFŀdivide

Gʰƾ4 2007ƀ 1910MWh2655oMWhͿ2008ƀ 1963MWh2729oMWhͿLJŚHG100ͼŃuumlͿHE3]bn4|3ŃuumlƟdegǯĦ3eumlɥė˃Ɵƛ˞HGɕʶƴ˗ʿBȗȋ˙ʹ)amp˞į1G Ͷoumlɯȗ3^Pc4ƼņGͶȯ3ǰAD^Pn4-1eumlɥHGampŚȉǨ4ȿŪ

G10G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȞĘɱ1bP-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯKbPĴatilde3˖3oumlD7ŘŚampȰɱȂ

ʩgt1ļ+aRZn3yacuteiquestiacute1D)˺amp$H1AJEȵuumlƟKȘamp˺iacute

Ƅ3amp13 2ƀ-ɛȯŃĀAgraveE3ƺIgrave1DGIgrave˯ƛ˞10)G ˺]bn42007ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ1ˬŚHG2007ƀ2008

ƀAǷOuml3ȣɞ4 2ť 8-G2008ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A źľ93ł1DGĔTHORN42007ƀ1 394MWh548oMWhͿ2008ƀ1 644oMWh895o

MWhͿ-)amp3ĔTHORN1ť2007ƀ1 348MWh483oMWhͿ2008ƀ14 215MWh299oMWhͿ˰EgraveHamp FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideHGFITǕʘǴ4(E3bA 20ƀ1ijŚHG

(f) Q54Q1 1ʆampmg4bPͶoumlɯąmiddot (AEE) D7 Intermoney śǟampʃʐ1ļ+A3-G

522 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

bP3ȳͶoumlɯSN4 62SN1ccedilotildeHHE3SN-4ͶoumlɯˠiacuteHGHE3SN1ťTHORNǸ˖JHG10G3śɱPq`NizK5currenɂHGQOo

yM3ˠȕ4ʢ 1000 MW-G

(b) ccedil-1 mg0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig mg0

ˮȲ 9 Zb III4sectʬ˵Ũɯȗ (DFIG) D7ccedilŚȉ3]ugKɥampͶZb IV4ĝǴɯȗD7y

Śȉ]ugE0GͶccedil͵HG3ccedil͵ǞȰ3˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

48

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mg0

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A mg0

(f) Q54Q1 mg0

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 5-25-54sup23 LCOEccedilǿ-ɥampm[3ntildeNjǼacuteKʆA3-G]bn3sup3Ś4szlig 2007

ƀ 2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZnK˘A3-2008ƀnǨ3-˘ʆG

Ugrave 5-3 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 30 30 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ 15 15 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ 2200 2150 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1233 (1714) 1250 (1738) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 191 (266) 196 (272) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA

Ugrave 5Ă4 1CNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 9 10 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 6 7 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 NA NA Ǵ ƀ 15 15 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 30 30 NA NA

FXn $ 139 139 NA NA

Ugrave 5-5 1CNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 53 (74) 54 (75) NA NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 34 (47) 35 (49) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ

ͼ 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 20 20 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 36 (51) 37 (52) NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

49

523 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 5-7 1CNrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup330

(b) BL0+dj bP3ͶoumlɯaRZn4đɔbDFAˬOtildeeumlɥɞfrac12ͶȯbP3szligːǨ1Ɛ

GampbP3 LCOE4đɔb3 LCOEDFA 18MWh25oMWhͿ0)Gđɔb3ſĹːǨLJŚ 2680Ǩ-G31ťbP4 2150Ǩ0)G szligːǨ4bP3 LCOE đɔb3 LCOE 3Ÿɮ13ǰA˞0Ńǘ-GͶȯ1divide

ʰƾAđɔbKĮ)FH14ĸdegD7ĸĻBˇȬiquest˞ȨGeumlɲɞAĠ=HG LCOE33˷ǥ0Gʖ 33˞į4˺]bn-F3ͳ4aRZn3WACCD7ǰʨɱ

1ě3Ʒ1˞ȨHGƷĔɲɞ (ROI) KŀdivideG

(c) ccedil-1 bP3Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4ʢ 1250kW1738okWͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 200

kW278 okWͿŘbP-4Ʒ]bnfrac12ampLCOE 4 10 MWh14 oMWhͿfrac120G ǑĐ]bn4QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘʨpoundamp3ɯˬOtilde3˥iquest]bnKĠampͳ-ʱƷ]

bn3ʢ 3ͼKĈG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bP3brvbarAring1Gyacuteɛȯ1ˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlɲɞ4đɔbDFA0)G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig bP-4ʰƾđɔbDFA0)GbP3ʰƾʱͳ14ʌĸdeg

ʚɡ]bnKĠamp3ŃuumlĠ=HGnotƔ3ʪethȿoumlˇŞȸǛ3ǤˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ

˜Ɵ3=F1DFʰƾAŀdivideG˟gt-G ſĹbP3ʰƾ4ʢ 196MWh272oMWhͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 7

MWh10oMWhͿ

ĎȲ30 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

50

524 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

Yacute1ampD1bP14 FIT iacuteƄͶoumlɯ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄͿźľiacuteƄźľEgraveȉͶoumlɯ3ĽŌͿ 23ǓƱiquestʡG2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ3ʢ 91ͼKźľiacuteƄ1DFłampH4ɯȐʿDFŅ3ĔTHORNKƖEHGamp-G x 5-8 4ĔTHORN3ŃǘȥǛͿͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOz3ŃǘbP1GźľiacuteƄ

3ĽŌͿKȣampA3-G

x 5Q-8 1CNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup331

525 aringmH7B

bP3mccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿ-G3EſĹbP3ͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOzEaRZnɯ

3yacute˞acuteKɄamp-G3ăccedil0Xj`yKƖGJG

53 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 5Ă6 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+psup332

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

76 (106)

83 (115) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

87 (121)

86 (120) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash11 (ndash15)

ndash3 (ndash4) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2009) ldquoEoacutelica 09 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Julio 2009)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileANUARIO20COMPLETO5B15Dpdf

ĎȲ31 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ32 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

51

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2008) ldquoEoacutelica 08 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Junio 2008)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee- publicaAEE_anuario_ingles08pdf

AEE ndash Intermoney (2006) ldquoEstudio de costes del sector eoacutelico Realizado por Intermoney para AEE (2006)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee-publica060612-Gen-EolicaEsp- PRALpdf

Comisioacuten Nacional de la Energiacutea (CNE) wwwcnees

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Red Eleacutectrica de Espantildea (REE) Spanish TSO wwwreees Royal Decree 6612007 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacionRD_661-2007-REpdf Royal Decree 4362004 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacion(36)RD436_2004pdf Spanish Market Operator (OMEL) wwwomeles

52

Aring 6Auml 1$QN

61 1$QNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bQRm3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙ0E71 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿK˷ǥG

611 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş42004ƀ1 474 MW)amp3 2008ƀǶ14 937 MW0)Gx 6-1ͿbQRmĆ3ȳQOoyM3ˬOtildeş4 2007ƀ14 110 MW-)amp=ampqN`N133Ƀ-3ɯAEHG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯcurrenɂ4EUdivideɳĴ3ěĴaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 3mg1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)

x 6-1 1$QNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_Uacuteuacute

ǛΆVinkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 and European Commission 2010 Ugrave 6-14bQRm1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=amp

Ugrave 6-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 6-1 1$QNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

220 220 272 322 381 429 470 560 698 951 2065 4365

ȳ 10 20 23 23 23 23 23 23 133 133 150 182

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

53

Ugrave 6-2 1$QNoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

ndashndashndash 05 51 50 59 48 41 90 138 253 278 288

ȳ ndashndashndash 10 25 0 0 0 0 0 110 0 4 4

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

612 s_CcedilN3N9A

bQRm-4aumlɣė˃SrY1DGɯ3ǓǎʘĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ (TGC) KŨTHORNG$3ɶɱ42016ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 17 TWh1ŀB-G3ɶȔOacuteK2020ƀ=-1ė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 25 TWh1GE1OacuteGampɠķ3iacuteƄ3ǔȜȏ˪HG=ampbQRmsQR3aacute`bl3Ȓʝ1ğampordfȾ˖J

HG 2008 ƀ=-4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ˖ɢĿĽŌ13AĤ5HGijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) Ͷoumlɯ

1ɥHamp3ɢĿĽŌ134ȳͶoumlɯ14 2009ƀ=-eumlɥė˃-)amp=amp 2003ƀ1vPjnaRZn3Ǔǎ˩ɩŐHampȳͶoumlɯţaringȥNtildeȎȀĸŻ-3Ͷoumlɯ)

ampˉģȻ˟0HampaRZn12008 ƀE 2012 ƀ=-3Ǵ1 3710 5160 oͿ3currenʙotildeƎEHG

2006 ƀʈǕƃ3ɢĿƐccedilǿ1Gˠiuml0E71ǝˠͶoumlɯaRZn3˴ėdbʞɬĀH25 MW=-3QOoyM4ˇȬiquest1ŭaeligH5ˬʹ-G0)amp ͶɅ3eumlɥ1GƥĽKƁcedilGampbQRmǕƃ3Ũ3Ͷoumlɯ3eumlɥ1GĴatilder

jnZĎȲ33ȒʝHamp3rjnZ1DFͶoumlɯ3˩ɩʘŚD7˴ŚʋuacuteOslashoumlbrvbarȐ3ɯ

Ůʰƾʚɡ1Gʀ˾KȻbQRm3ͶoumlɯɯaRZnKEumlH

G E1Ͷoumlɯ3]mOrgKɥɯbrvbarȐʿEcircƎŬ0E71ĸUcircĸĻĴ3ě|1

GEcircʿ3ordfȵEumlKIJ)G

62 1$QNVUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

621 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bQRm-43aRZn3szligːǨ4 2600Έ3050 ǨĽġHGżbQR

m3Ͷoumlɯj1ʆHGszligːǨ4ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿNjaeligampǘŒKĮ)

G3amp˩ʙ-4bQRm3aRZn3ǰʨɱ0ͶoumlɯǨKĽġHampʜı3 2600ǨͿG

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3aRZn42008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZn3]bnD7ɯoumlēǧ

Hampdeg˘ɱaRZnŚʻHamp Ƿ]bn4ampF 12171915kW1692Έ2662okWͿ=-Fmccedilǿ-4 1591kW2212okWͿsup3Śamp

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3ijŚccedil4ſĹ 0004 kW0006 okWͿŃuumlccedil4ʢ 11 MWh15 o

ĎȲ33 httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse đɔ

54

MWhͿLJŚG3Ńuuml4 7 MWh10 oMWhͿE 24 MWh33 oMWhͿ=-FvPjnaRZn1Gʰƾ4ż1ŃuumlņɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒

ɮ0)G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 Ugrave 6-51ʆD1mccedilǿ-4OumleumlőKƷŞżĽġG 5˟L-GͶoumlɯ1Ʒ

GparaȐ3middot˩Ľġ3ccedilǿ-420ͼƍOuml]bnʆHGbQRm3paraȐccedilǿEŨaeligampƛ˞0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞʫ7macrOumleumlőɞK 5LJŚampľĜͶoumlɯ3]bnKũ˰EgraveG10F20

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ǵŋʢ1DGźľ93oumlłŨTHORNHGĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ

23ĔTHORN3ȵH1D)KƖG(E3ĔTHORNɅAʄśƟż12008ƀ=-FITĽŌiacuteƄAɥHFͶoumlɯaRZn4 2 MWh3 oMWhͿŪͳ3ĽŌKĖamp

(f) Q54Q1 LCOE˩ʙ3mg4˫3D0ɥǓǎ˩ɩ3ʫȁD7Ĵatilde3_3amp1bQRmSrY

Ŭ=ampmg)amp˜ǘ3ƥĽɅ1ļ+A3-GǑĐ]bn4 Svensk Vindenergi (2009) 3mgKAumlɥampbQRm3Ͷoumlɯ˩ɩ1Gʭ˩Oacute4bQRmSrYŬȢƀɯ˘

GĽġǮ ES20103 ldquoVindkraft statistic 2009 (Wind power statistics 2009)rdquoD7 Vindkraft Statistik 20081ļ+G2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯǨ4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ3mgKAumlɥGE1Ͷoumlɯ3ɯȐbrvbarʿEʆmg3NjAEligKĖamp=ampEcircGotildeƊɞKǥE1Gampmiddot˩ǛKđɔampE14˚Ǜ O2 0E71 AriseȇƉźľ3ŨTHORN1GbrvbarȐaeligɘəEŦŞ3Ƨ˟KƊɥamp

622 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

2008ƀǨɏ-ŨTHORNHampbQRmǰņ3ȳaRZn4Lillgrunden3 11 MW3aRZn-)amp3aRZn4 Vattenfall 2004ƀ1Ɗʮ2007ƀ1ʡʭ1ʡHampLillgrundenaRZn-4 Siemens3 23 MWͶ MKII 48ļAumlɥHG$3( 13ļ4 2004ƀsup2ntilde1ʡʭ1ʡHGbQRm3ǰǝaRZn4 3 MW3Ͷ 10ļKOtildeamp GaumlsslingegrundaRZn-H4 VaumlnernɃ3Ģ 7Έ13m1ļʅKˬʹampqN`N133aRZn-G

Ugrave 6-3 LillgrundenBL0+Z

Lillgrundenmg Ά ļɆȷDF 115 m gɷƑΆ 924 m ʱʏΆ 6734 m2 iacuteƗǞȰΆ ėŃxjiD7ėŃƄ gƄΆ 6Έ16 rpm ǰņYacuteʔƄΆ 280 kmh gΆ 60 t pdΆ 82 t gΆ 110 t LJŚƀɯoumlΆ 6875500 kWh ˬOtildeeumlɥɞΆ 35ͼ ſĹͶΆ 85 ms

55

Ugrave 6-4 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 235 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 41 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2600 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1591 (2212) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 0004 (0006) NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 16 (222) NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 6-5 1$QNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 12 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 87 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 13 NA NA WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 47 NA NA

Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 28 NA NA

FXn SEKeuro ndashndashndash 942 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

Ugrave 6-6 1$QNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 50 (70) NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 25 (35) NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 2 (3) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 1 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

623 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

x 6-2 1ʆD1bQRm3 LCOE 4đɔbDFʢ 1 MWh1 oMWhͿfrac120)G

56

x 6-2 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1psup334

(a) BL0+dj bQRm3szligːǨ4đɔbDFAH4ͶoumlɯaRZn1eumlɥ-Gĵĸʏ

^[ampreg3Țŵ˽ĴDFAņampƎɓ3-G

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3Ʒ4oumlɯaRZnTGC `bl2001 ƀEŨTHORNͿ0E71Ǡœ3 NordPool

ʡʭ1995ƀEoumlĕƊͿ3amp1đɔbDFABB0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig đɔbbQRm3ʰƾ3Ÿɮ4ǰũ3A3-H4^1DGė˃Ɵʹ˒

-40

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bQRm3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12H4bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ93Ʒ1

GbZ3|frac12E-FbQRm3Ͷoumlɯɯ1GʪEƎɓ3˧G

x 6-3 1$QNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup335

ĎȲ34 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

57

624 s_CcedilN3N9A

ĔTHORN4 1Ϳoumlł1DGĔTHORN2Ϳ[˯Ǯł1DGĔTHORN3ͿFITE3Ūͳ3ĔTHORN2009ƀ1ƆțͿ3 3-ȒƭHG ĔTHORN4źľE33ȵH-GampʄśƟņ0b-4ȥǛ4 50 MWh

70 oMWhͿ-ŘŚG˟0H[˯ǮEgraveȉ4ʢ 25 MWh35 oMWhͿ)amp2009ƀ1OacuteHamp

625 aringmH7B ſĹɱ0aRZn14ouml3źľEgraveȉ TGCiacuteƄ3˚UgraveKʩgtĜJG-ăccedil1]bnK

-GD-G

Ugrave 6-7 1$QNIumlsectpsup336

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 75

(104) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash8

(ndash11) NA NA

63 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 6-7 1ʆampD1bQRm3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˇŹǷ]bnD7Ouml]bnfrac12amp1ǷdivideſĹĎEgrave (WACC) ȣɱfrac120)GD-GaRZn3AEligʬ4Ouml1DGǷ˺1DGA3-macr3˺Ǵ4 20ƀ-G$HDFAmacrǴʁľĜA$EG˕Ǵ3ʨpoundǨ1ʸFHG bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ4ȞĘ=ampƀƞ1ƭG2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrY

ɅK 25 TWh1GɶȔKƭGamp14ͶoumlɯKE1ɯŮƛ˞G

rOtildemiddot

Dagens Industri wwwdise 2010-03-16 Storm kring vindkraftsbolag

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

E24 wwwe24se 2010-03-16 Vindkraftsbolagen anklagas foumlr glaumldjekalkyler Nationellt naumltverk foumlr vindbruk (national network for winduse) httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse

Svensk Vindenergi 2009 Vindkraftverk ndash kartlaumlggning av aktiviteter och kostnader vid nedmontering aringterstaumlllande av plats och aringtervinning

Vinkraftstatistik 2009 ES 20103 2010 Swedish Energy Agency available at

ĎȲ35 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ36 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

58

httpwwwenergimyndighetenseGlobalPressPressmeddelandenVindkraftsstatistik202009p df

Vindkraftstatistik 2007 ES 20082 2008 Swedish Energy Agency available at httpwwwenergimyndighetenseen

59

Aring 7Auml 11

71 11uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bPb3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙacirciquestɱ14 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿ3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1GbPb4atildeĴ-GampȳaRZn4œķ0ǪˤIgrave3ampɃȭĸĻ4ɠķͶoumlɯ^PnEńHG

711 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş41996ƀ3 2 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 14 MW1ŀdivideampͶoumlɯ1DGƀɯouml4 2000ƀ3 18 GWhE 2008ƀ3 2020 GWh1ŀdivideampH1ť 2008ƀ3ʱ˞ouml4 587 TWh-Gɠķ˩ɩEHGaRZn1D)2012ƀ14 65 MW3ɯė˃10GLJŚHGǕƃ3SrYǕʘ-4 2030ƀ1 44 MWKɯGɶȔKljG

x 7-1 11uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

Ugrave 7-14bPb1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 7-24ĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-1 11IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

28 28 451 455 456 866 116 116 116 136 176 65 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

60

Ugrave 7-2 11oacute_ethyumlMWĀ

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

28 00 170 065 001 350 290 002 000 200 400 150 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

712 s_CcedilN3N9A

bPb-4 2008 ƀ1oPkĝȓ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄFITͿKŨTHORNamp3`bl4LJŚHG LCOEKamp3A3-GFIT 1Ġ=HG34oumlźľEgraveȉ[ouml3Oacute-GͶoumlɯ14bPb3 FIT4 110MWh153oMWhͿΈ130MWh181oMWhͿ1ijŚHG

72 11VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

721 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZn42 MW3Ͷ 6ļKOtildeamp Juraű˅Ȕ 1000Έ1200 mͿ3

QOoyM-GbPb1GͶoumlaRZn3L2 MW3ͶgɷƑ 82 mtzʢ 8 0mͿKɥG3ĸĻ-4NZdbiacuteHGamp1gɷƑg31ˬEHFŚȉaeligouml 800Έ1000 kWtz 40~60 m3ͶKeumlɥG

(b) ccedil-1 bPb1Gdeg˘ɱ0aRZn3ě3Ʒ]bn4ampF 1790 kW2488 kWͿ-G

Țŵ1GͶ93Ʒ]bn3otildeĜ4ſĹʢ 76bPb-4 55~6810)G34bPb3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn93NZdbďiacuteHGamp=ampbPb-4laquoacuteż1amp-G

3ampɯƯ3ʪȣɱ0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ14bPb-4śʷŪ0ampEWEA agrave˘ampʰƾ3ȣ1ļ+bPb3ʰƾK 31MWh43oMWhͿsup3Śamp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 sup23˘4bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥamp˺]bnKʆG

Ugrave 7-3 ccedilntildeacirciacute-1YacuteEgrave

źľeuml 5 ƛ˞0Ƿeumlɲɞ 7

Ƿ3otildeĜ 30 ˀɥƀǘ 20ƀ ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ 20ƀ

Py 0 Ǵ 20ƀ

ȰlaquoʌɞOECDͿ 21

61

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A bPb14aumlɣė˃SrYɯ3brvbarȐeumlɥ-Gɜʑ3ĔTHORN`bl 2ʍ͵G 64 FIT `bl-H4sup23]bn˩ʙ3ļɵ0GA3-3ȽKĖEHG34Ȧoumlɯ

10 MWsup2atildeͿňɖɯͶoumlɯuPUb0E71uPUbƆǺ-Gaumlɣė˃SrYɅ[vͿ1DGɯ1ɥė˃03Ǜ`bl4ɯǞƉaeligoumlecirc1đɔˬOtilde1ļ+acirciquest

ɱ1ˠŚHěƴ˗3 LCOEK-Gshyʩgt10)GȽ4ɯǞƉ1D) 20Έ25ƀ3Ǵ1ɥHGcurrenƦHGƴ˗db0E71HE3ƴ˗3źľĀEuml1DFHE3Ǜ`bl

-4ͳ3Ƞɱfrac12currenƦHGǛ3ȿͳɥHG34ɰampɯˬOtilde3gt-FHE3ˬ

Otilde4ȽǴK ŚampǛ`bl1DFȽKĖGɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKLľĜ$HĝǨ1oumlźľ-[oumlKłG4-00G ʖ 2 3ĔTHORN`bl4[oumlźľ-GɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKeumlɥ-0ľĜ4źľ-

oumlKłG10Gż$3ĔTHORN4ɯbrvbarȐʿoumlmiddotʇ3ordfȾ1D)ȪŚHGoumlĽŌK

ouml3źľEgraveȉ1divideampͳ-G

(f) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşmg4 Swiss Wind Energy Association ldquoSuisse Eolerdquo1DGA3-GƷ]bn

ʰƾ3mg4 2008ƀ1˩ɩHampͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ȇ1DGA3-G˺]bn4 FIT˩ʙD7 Swiss Federal Office of Energy3mTHORNouml3sup3Ś1ļ+A3-G Ugrave 7-47-64bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOELJŚ1ɥampmĀ1Gsup3ŚKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-4 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 2 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 6 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 1750 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1790 (2488) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 31 (43) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 7-5 11uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 7 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 30 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 70 NA NA Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 21 NA NA

FXn CHFeuro ndashndashndash 067 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

62

Ugrave 7-6 11uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125 (174) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

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ɯȐʿTHORNȐʿ-ordfȾ

73 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

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731 -1plusmnecirc

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(a) BL0+igraveeacuteOgrave bPb-ɯHampouml4đɔbDFA˒Ū00)GH4ͶoumlɯʋƄ-Gamp

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ľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

63

(b) ccedil-1 bPb3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAH4Ņ3^Pn93NZdbİ

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64

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2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

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2008ƀ

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rOtildemiddot

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Erlaumluternder Bericht zur Revision der Anhaumlnge EnV Bundesamt fuumlr Energie 2102009

Swiss Energy Act of June 26 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_0html

Swiss Energy Ordinance of December 7 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_01html

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65

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66

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67

821 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

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68

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69

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(e) Q54Q1 ȳͶoumlɯ3ɚƙ1G˞0mgɅ4ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution

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Ugrave 8-3 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ53

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ54 ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 165 167 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ͷļǘ ļ 73 50 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ɯĎȲ55 szligːǨ 2891 3066 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1241 (1725) 1378 (1915) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʰƾ ijŚͿĎȲ56 eurokW ($kW) 50 (70) 50 (70) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʰƾ ŃuumlͿĎȲ57

euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (80) 58 (80) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

$3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆWiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ51 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ52 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ53 Yacute1ampD1]bn4szlig 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆ ĎȲ54 3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙ4ntildeʛ1ʆGȳͶoumlɯ4ʟĴ3 LCOEccedilǿ14Ġ0 ĎȲ55 eumlɥɞ 2007ƀ 33ͼ2008ƀ 35ͼsup3ŚG (Wiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) ĎȲ56 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampş|b3ʰƾ4 2007ƀ 2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG ĎȲ57 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampɯouml|b3ʰƾ42007ƀ2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG

70

(f) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 8-38-5 4ș1G LCOE ccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3sup3ŚKʆG]bn3sup3Ś4HA 2007 ƀ

2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1GA3-2008ƀƄ3o-˘GmD7ǞȰ3˳˷ǥ4Aring 1AumlKđɔHamp

Ugrave 8-4 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 100 100 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash WACC ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

Ǵ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ȰlaquoʌɞĎȲ58 ͼ 389 389 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FXnĎȲ59 $US 139 139 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆChadbourne and Parke 2009 Harper et al 2007 Schwabe et al 2009

Ugrave 8-5 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

oumlźľEgraveȉĎȲ60 euroMWh ($MWh) 382 (531) 419 (582) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

źľEgraveȉ˯ǥĎȲ61 euroMWh ($MWh)

˫1 Ġ=HG

˫1 Ġ=HG ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FITǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml |bͿĎȲ62

euroMWh ($MWh) 144 (200) 151 (210) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ 10 10 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 6 6 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆHarper et al 2007 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ58 LJŚHampǕƃŵǕƃ3ʌɞ4$HH 35ͼ 6ͼ-Gɏ1ɫƧ (Harper et al 2007)ŵʌ4ĔTHORNEdž

HGamp˜Ĝśucircʌɞ4 389ͼ-G ĎȲ59 szlig3]bn4 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆGamp2007ƀA 2008ƀA 2008ƀǶ3ɐǯnKɥamp

(Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ60 2007ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3EgraveȉˬŚ1Gsup3ŚAWiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+˥amp ĎȲ61 aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3LJŚͳKouml3źľEgraveȉ3˩ʙ1ĠG ĎȲ62 PTCnjʙOacute4 13frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORN

71

823 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯTHORNoumlvgKɥ2007 ƀ 2008 ƀ3 LCOE K˩ʙamp2008 ƀ3ʟĴ LCOE2008

ƀ3ʟĴ3sup3ŚKszligAumlɥͿKđɔb2008 ƀ3đɔb3szligsup3ŚKAumlɥͿȣamp$3ʫȁ4sup23F-G Ĵecirc3ěTHORNoumlŃǘKě3đɔb3sup3ŚEʟĴ3sup3Ś9ŀccedilɱ1degTHORNđɔbʟĴ3 LCOE

3Ÿɮ93ěŃǘ3ƐKLJŚ-GD1ampʟĴ3 LCOE 4 3 MWh4 oMWhͿ-đɔb3 LCOEDFAfrac12x 8-2đɔͿ

x 8-2 EcirczrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup363

(b) BL0+dj ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4ſĹˍō0Ͷȯ3ơƣKĖG-G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ|b3

aRZn-4ſĹ 3066 Ǩ3szligːǨǴƒHGđɔb-4 2628 ǨͿʟĴ-4aRZn3aeligouml0G LCOEđɔbDFAʢ 8MWh11oMWhͿfrac120G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAʢ 72 kW100o kWͿfrac120)G

2008ƀ3ſĹƷ]bn4đɔb 1449kW2029okWͿ-G31ťʟĴ-4 1378kW19195okWͿ-GǑĐ]bnͶoumlɯˬOtilde3ǑĐ]bnaRZn^Pn3ƘUcirc]bnĠ=HGͿ4szliggt3Ʒ]bn1Ġ=HGsup3ŚHGƕ)ʟĴ-4Ʒ]bnfrac12

G1HLCOEđɔbDFAʢ 2MWh3oMWhͿfrac120G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3˺]bn4ˇŹǷ|amp2008ƀ4 100ͼͿ=ampđɔb-4

Ouml1DG˺KɥGampđɔbDFA0)G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯaRZn3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ75ͼͿ4đɔb3Oumleumlɲɞ55ͼͿDFA 200|`bPn0)G ʟĴ-4ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 2007 ƀE 2008 ƀ1ŀdivideampH4ǕĊȗ1DFƕǽ3ǷƷŞ

ĎȲ63 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

72

KŊ)ampamp-G (Schwabe et al 2009)H4=ampư0Egraveȉ3frac34Ŗ)ampreg3ʊʌdžƷAĝȓ3ơƣKƖEHGD1GʟĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY3ʌdžǕʘ3Ɵ1DGA3-3Ǖʘ1DF 2007ƀ1ʢ 6ͼ3eumlɲNjAEligHHȇƉƷeumlɲɞ3KŚG10)amp (Chadbourne and Parke 2007)ʟĴ3˺]bn0GʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 8MWh11oMWhͿ0G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAfrac120)Gʰƾ4ijŚG4Ńuuml-˘-

G3ampđɔb3ȣ-4ŃuumlǼacute-˘ampnjʙćǛ3LJŚOacuteampʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJ

Śʱͳ4 7MWh10oMWhͿđɔb3 13MWh18oMWhͿK4G1Į)ampraquoĽġ1DH5ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯɤȐ4ʰƾʚɡ]bn3˟ʏF1G˞˹Ͳ1ɠķAɷFĽ

ġHampmg4Ǩřszlig-Gamp3LJŚOacute4ƪ1˥Gƛ˞G =ampʰƾ4aRZn3ˠȕũ0G1Hfrac12G˯ƻAG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

HAʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJŚͳđɔbȣfrac120)G3į-GʟĴ3aR

Zn3ˠȕ4đɔbDFAņampͿ=ampʟĴ3ʰƾ4ǝˠaRZn14=DzucircIgrave

˯Ǵatilde-Gamp1ʵĥHGė˃ƟGʟĴ3ʰƾfrac120GʟĴ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFAʢ 6MWh8oMWhͿfrac120G

(f) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4Ƿ]bn˺]bnG4szliggt3ʰƾ1Ġ=HGƦŚHGamp

ʟĴ3ccedilǿ-4ecircmĀ0reg3]bn14ʡʭɥʿ1DGfrac12ĶPob (LVRT) ˞acuteG4ɑucircouml]bnʗGN`^wbǛ4ż4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɷDž˹

HG40

(g) uumljfrac14divideWocirceumlCcediloslash Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ]bn4đɔbDFA0)GHE3Ǖʘ1

41ͿȰlaquoʌɞ2ͿȰlaquo˹ʌƯƖE3eumlőǓƱdžĠ=HGʟĴ3DzucircȰlaquoʌɞ389Ϳ4đɔb30ͿDFA$3amp LCOE0)GE1Ƿ1DG 100˺K˟L-GampʟĴ3 LCOE ˹ʌƯƖ3eumlőǓƱdž1D)ȿͳHG40ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFAʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ0)G

824 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj3˩ʙ1DFʟĴ3ĔTHORNŃǘouml RECͿ3OacuteKͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘȣGyacuteYj4=ĔTHORNǕʘAͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘKĠ

1˩ʙș1ĔTHORNŃǘ3gtKĠauml˩ʙGǰƔ1auml7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘKĠ˩

ʙG3ŀccedilsup3Ś1DFͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘ1ťGĔTHORN3ɸťɱEgraveOacuteKǥE1amp x 8-34ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘĔTHORN3ŃǘKȣHE 23D1ʟĴ3 LCOE

KȒƭGKʆampA3-G2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3 LCOEʢ 41MWh57oMWhͿ4ĔTHORNɅouml REC3łͿ-JHGʢ 24MWh33oMWhͿ4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHGPTCUgraveČ˩ɩ3divideͿotildeĜ-˘0EʟĴ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 24ĔTHORN-ȟF3 3ccedil3 14ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHG

73

x 8-3 Ecirczs_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup364

825 aringmH7B

ʟĴ3mĀccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash1 MWhndash1 oMWhͿ-G3EʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4aRZnɯ1ƛ˞HGyacute˞acuteKɄamp31ăccedil0Xj`

yKĔTHORND7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOzȉGľĜͿEƖG10G34

PTCżǨDzucirc-)amp 2005Έ2009ƀ3ƀͶoumlˬOtildeş3ʯɱ˫EAǥE-GH41ƀŨTHORNş4 PCT]bnɑucirc10)ampǨ1˒ȿŪG (AWEA2009)ĎȲ65

83 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+

ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ƀƞ1ƼņGH4Ͷȯż1ˍō-]bnȣɱfrac12ĔTHORN

Ʌăccedil1F=ampľĜ1D)4Dzɲ0ǕʘPdlOzKeumlɥ-GE-GʟĴ1Gɠķ=

-3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn4HA-śǟHampʟĴeacute0GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯ

EHGʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bn4ˊ1đɔbDFAfrac12H4SrYaeligouml

ņǷ]bnʰƾfrac121DGͶoumlɯ1GǕƃ3ǕʘPdlOzȜ

Ɖ1˴ŚHamp-Ĵatilde3Ņ3szlig-401AͿ3ɯaRZnEumlHG10)amp

E-GĔTHORNǕʘ3PdlOz3ɸiexclucircȁ1DFͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ3yacuteYj4lte10

)G

Ugrave 8-6 EcirczIumlsectpsup366

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

58 (81)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

60 (83)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

ndash1 (ndash1) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ĎȲ64 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ65 x 8-1đɔ ĎȲ66 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

74

rOtildemiddot

AWEA (2010) ldquoUS Wind Energy Industry Breaks All Records Installs Nearly 10000 MW in 2009 Manufacturing

Investment Jobs Still Lagrdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) news release January 26 2010 at httpwwwaweaorgnewsroomreleases01-26- 10_AWEA_Q4_and_Year-End_Report_Releasehtml

AWEA (2009) ldquoAmerican Wind Energy Association Annual Wind Industry Report Year Ending 2008rdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) at httpwwwaweaorgpublicationsreportsAWEA-Annual-Wind-Report-2009pdf

Bolinger M (2010) ldquoRevealing the Hidden Value that the Federal Investment Tax Credit and Treasury Cash Grant Provide to Community Wind Projectsrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL-2909E January 2010 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreportslbnl-2909epdf

Capewind (2010) ldquoCape Wind Signs Agreement to Buy Siemens 36-MW Offshore Wind Turbinesrdquo Cape Wind (Capewind) news release March 31 2010 at httpwwwcapewindorgnews1086htm

Chadbourne and Parke (2009) ldquoTrends in Tax Equity for Renewable Energyrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke January 2009 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication810dde60-3c78-4a9a-9c5d- a5fae8014b4fPresentationPublicationAttachment51fc06c5-1407-48ac-9dff- a605de0f58e1pfn0109pdf

Chadbourne and Parke (2007) ldquoThe Tax Equity Marketrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke April 2007 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication572b04b4- 905e-48e1-8f6b-0f520c4f2615PresentationPublicationAttachment573bdc6c-ff85-4f99-b4d0- 25a845907bccpfn0407pdf

Cory K Schwabe P (2009) ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financing Input Variablesrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL TP-6A2-46671 October 2009 at httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

DOE (2010) ldquoGeneral Loan Guarantee Program Frequently Asked Questionsrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) accessed April 2010 at httpwwwlgprogramenergygovfaq2htm

DOE (2008) ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution to US Electricity Supplyrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2008 at httpwww20percentwindorg

EIA (2009) ldquoAnnual Energy Outlook 2010 Early Release with Projections to 2030rdquo US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration (EIA) website accessed February 2010 at httpwwweiadoegovoiafaeoexcelaeotab_16xls

102Federal Reserve (2010) ldquoHistorical Rates for Euro Areardquo Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System website accessed February 2010 at httpwwwfederalreservegovreleasesh10histdat00_euhtm

GE (2010) ldquo15 MW Wind Turbine Technical Specificationsrdquo GE Energy (GE) website accessed April 2010 at httpwwwgepowercomprod_servproductswind_turbinesen15mwspecshtm

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review amp Comparative Analysisrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports63434pdf

Justice S (2009) ldquoPrivate Financing of Renewable Energy ndash A Guide for Policymakers UNEP Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative Bloomberg New Energy Finance Chatham House December 2009 at httpwwwchathamhouseorgukfiles15542_1209_financeguidepdf

Schwabe P Cory K Newcomb J (2009) ldquoRenewable Energy Project Financing Impacts of the Financial Crisis and Federal Legislationrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory technical report NRELTP-6A2-44930 July 2009 at

75

httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti44930pdf

USOWC (2009) ldquoUS Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo US Offshore Wind Collaborative (USOWC) October 2009 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreports63434pdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2009) ldquo2008 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2009 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports2008-wind-technologiespdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2008) ldquoAnnual Report on US Wind Power Installation Cost and Performance Trends 2007rdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy May 2008 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs43025pdf

76

Uograve AĂsup1agraveUumlaacute

shyocircMQ+Q

BL0+para

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

aRZn3gPn Project title

aRZnĞregĴ3QOo

yMȣGamp AringΆoPk3đɔQOoyM13

aRZn3ʍ͵ Project type

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ʍ͵ A4ȳ

Ͷļǘ Number of wind turbines

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

Ͷʱǘ$EěĴ3ɡ˼

3ſĹɱQOoyMͿ

ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

Śȉaeligouml Rated power

Ͷ 1ļ3Śȉaeligouml ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

gɷƑ Rotor diameter

Ͷ3gɷƑ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

ĖͶʏ Swept area

gͶKĖGszligʏ m2-˘˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

tz Hub height

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ƚĸɏ3ſĹ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽraquotz

3ſĹͶƀɯouml4ɷDž

EcircGͿ tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ

Lond term average wind speed at hub height

tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

Ȝģɯouml Net electricity production

QOoyM3ƀſĹȜ

ģɯouml szligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

ƺʌouml Tax capability

iacute΄ɑiacute ćɜ3aRZn3ľĜ

4ʌiacuteUacuteʘKszligeumlɥ-GͿG4

ˣmiddotʇKƾ3ľĜ4ˣmiddotʇ

Ǝ˲ƀƄ3ʌdžKszligDzucirc1eumlɥ-

GͿ4_Ƹ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4

Ĵʌ΄ʌ3gt1ɥHGŵʌBĸ

Ǟʌ4ńͿ Currency

szlig]bnĔTHORNPdlOz

ʗ3 2007ǫƀ 2008ǫƀ3$HHdeg˘ɱ0ǡ $HH 2007ƀ 12DZ 3ǡ 2008ƀ12DZ 31ǡͿ3ȣ1ļ+1ˬŚ

ijŚƀ]bnćfrac14 Fixed annual costs unit

ijŚʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kW

Ńuumlƀ]bnćfrac14 Variable annual costs unit

ƀʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kWh

ccedil-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ͷ Wind turbine

ͶD7ɯ˙ʹ3Yacute˖Ʒ

]bn ggtzgĖ

oPznPKƿʆGPy

YN~jZb`blxj

i`blzX`blpdt

77

Qa[ɯȗgzoͶ

ɥŃĶĬraraquoļʅG4ʡʭDž

ʯ4Ġ=reg-ƲͿ Ͷ3 Wind turbine transportation

ͶK˛ŶľEaRZ

nɯ^Pn1$1ˬ

ʹ-GD1Gamp3]b

n

Ͷ3aRZn^Pn93Křpound

Gamp1ɥEHG΄n

jZ]bnD7Z3]bnK

Ġ Ͷ3ˬʹ Wind turbine installation

aRZnƈˬǴ3Ͷ

3ˬʹ]bn ƈˬ3Z3]bnKĠ

ũ˩ΆͶ3]bn Sub-total wind turbine cost

Ͷ 3ļsup23]bn3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ļʅ Foundations

QOoyM1ƛ˞0ļʅ

3ʱ]bn ]Zn$3regQOoyM

3ěͶKǓG31ƛ˞0ȒǓȅK

Ġ Ȓatildeʡʭ Internal grid

QOoyM3ŃƯ93

Džʯ1ƛ˞0QOoyM

atilde3ȥʡʭ

QOoyMatilde3szlig3ʳQO

oyM3ŃƯ=-D7ŃƯ

3ʳKĠͿŃƯ1ʡɏDF

ntilde1ʡʭʡŃĶĬGľĜ4$3Ń

ĶĬ=-3szlig3ʳKĠ1șiacuteƗɯ`blKuziacuteƗGamp1ˬʹ

HampiacuteƗ˙ʹͿ3]bnKĠƯDzʿ

D7Ͷ˛brvbarȐʿ1ǖB˿ġKcedilamp

FͶKǒAcirc1DFuumlD7Ocirc

țampFɥʭ˩OacuteKƵǍGamp3

ɴˡiacuteƗ`bl (SCADA)G4QOoyMɴˡ`bl3ˬʹKĠ

ʡʭʡ[jo]o3

Ɇƻ Grid connection grid code compliance

QOoyM3ʡʭʡ1

ƛ˞0ŃĶĬǠœ3oumlʡʭ

-ƛ˞HGȥʡʭ

QOoyMEʡʭ=-3ʳ

0[jo]oɆƻ3amp1ȨE

HGegrave3divideɱ˙ʹĠ=HGQO

oyMʡʭʡŃĶĬKĠ˜ǘ3

ŃƯKDzGľĜʡʭʡŃĶĬ

ʡʭ3ʳ3gtKĠ ʡʭŀƍ Grid reinforcement

˄Ƌ0ʡʭ-4QOoyM

3ʡ3ampʡʭ3reg3ccedil

3ĶʤKG1DF

ʡʭKŀƍGė˃ƟG

Ǡœ3ʡʭ3ŀƍ1ƛ˞0˙ʹ

ŀƍdivideɱiacuteƗ$3reg3macrdivideɱ˙ʹKĠ

Ϳ

ŃƯ Substations and transformer station

ʡʭʡŃĶĬˇiquestD7$H

=-3ĂKĠampQOoy

M3ʡʭatilde1Gszlig3

ŃƯ3]bn

ʡʭ93ʡĸɏ=-ǜĬD7ǜ

ĬKĠŃĶĬ4ĶKǤĶGȥ

ȗĬ-GL3Ͷ4aeligoumlKʡ

ʭĶ1ǤĶGŃĶĬKDzG ũ˩Άȥʡʭ Sub-total electrical netgrid

ȥʡʭ1G˫ 4 ɶ3ũ˩

˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ˴˯ Certification

ʡʭʡG1amp)QO

oyMK˴˯Gamp3]

bn

˴˯Hampˬ˩IJ3]bnD7QOo

yM3ś3ƈˬK3ˬ˩IJȣ

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QOoyM3ɯȠ-

ƛ˞10GɢĿ˺Ȇ3ʱͳH

4ěĴ3ɢĿƐ˰EgraveǮ3acirciquest

ɱ0˞acute1˟G-G

ȩȃ3ė˃ƟɊɇograveʗͿ ͷ|3LJŚ Ǫˤ93ˡˢɱƐ ɣɣəD7ɣƩʡ93ƈˬD7 3Ɛ ɚŚ3ͻ˓˔3ɴˡ `oQyjV3Oslash

Pysup2ń3ɯ]bn

3ũ˩ Non-infrastructure development subtotal

˫3Pysup2ń3aR

Znɯ3˫ 2ɶ3ʱ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

78

ʰƾˬOtilde OampM facilities

ʰƾȐyacute3˖1ƛ˞0

D7ǟˬKǝamp1ƈˬG

]bn

Ͷ3ƈˬ14aRZn3ˀ

ɥƀǘ3ʰƾgzo3

ɏȏ]bnD7ņĺĦ3ordfnj]bn $3reg Miscellaneous

˫3aRZnɯ]bn

1Ġ=H0$3regegrave3

]bn

3ĵĸƯDzʿ93˚Ugrave

ntilde3eumlőǓƱ Interest payment before operation

aRZnŐntilde1ǓƱ

ƛ˞10Geumlő3ʱͳ ż4ƈˬȠ3OumlD7Ͷ3Ͱ

ǓƱ3amp33Ńǘ4 1Έ2ƀatilde3yacuteŃǘ-G3Xj`y

mŐHGɥeacuteƀƄ1

4ntilde-ǓƱ]bnG reg3aRZnɯ]b

n3ũ˩ Sub-total other project development costs

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫frac14ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0

ľĜʱͳ-˘

aRZnƷ]bn3

ʱͳ Total project investment costs

˫ɯɶũ˩3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

q-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǑĐbZjEgraveͳK

Ϳ Decommisioning excl scrap value

ļʅKĠQOoyMK

ĵĸEǑĐG31˞G]

bn

QOoyMD7egrave3Py

ZʗͿ3˥iquestǑĐə

$3regegrave3ƛ˞0Ǖƃ˯ǥǮ3Acircƭ]b

n ĵĸ3ˇɓɛƩ93ĮƘ Returning the land to the natural state

ĵĸ3ɠɛĮƘ3amp3]bn aRZnřpoundamp1ɯɣ

bZjEgraveͳ Scrap value

ǑĐǨ3bZjǺǛ3łČ

EgraveOacute ʳʗaumleumlɥG4bZj

łČ-Gė˃Ɵ3GQOoyM

3ǺǛ ȜģǑĐ]bn Net decommissioning costs

˫ɶ3ʱͳ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

BL0+igraveeacute Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǨszligːǨmO

nKͿ Operational time full load hours excluding derate

szligːǨ4QOoyM

3ſĹƀɯoumlK$3

Śȉaeligouml-ampOacute-G

H4szligːǨ3Ĝ˩-F˩ɩɱ

D7˩ɩń3ʰƾʚɡ3amp3OcircțǨK

ĠszligːǨŅŚamp^P

n1GQOoyM3ɯouml

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QOoyMʎOslash

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Net operational timefull load hours

ǨszligːǨEmO

nKƊampǨ ȜģǨ3Ĝ˩KĠG0J(m

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ƀǘ3ǴaRZn]

bn3ʱͳKĮĔ0H50

E0Ϳ

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Ǵ Time horizon for cost

LCOE˩ʙ3ť0GǴ _OacuteKTHORNouml0ľĜ4myTn

ˬŚ1DFˀɥƀǘ1ˬŚG

79

calculations

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Ǵ Loan duration

ȽǴ3Ĝ˩ ͰD7eumlőǓƱKĠ

― źľeuml Loan - market interest rate

euml3Oacute43ư1D)

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fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

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euml3ƖEHG Oumleumlɲɞ Return on debt

Ǵ1ȢƀƖEHG

euml ȢƀƖEHGeuml

ƛ˞HGǷeumlɲɞź

ľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivideʙ

KͿ Required return on equity excl market volatility risk adder

QOoyM3ǷƷŞ

ȨGeumlɲɞ Ƿ1Geumlɲ3otildeĜ

źľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivide

ʙ Market volatility risk adder

ʕyenɱźľ1đdivideǷeumlɲɞ

KGdividebZKƵǍG

KɶɱampA3

źľ1GcurrenƦń3ŃuumlbZKʾƬ

Gamp1divideʙGotildeĜ

ƛ˞HGƷǷ3Ȝ

ģeumlɲɞ Net required return on investment equity

ɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZ

nƷŞ93ǷeumlɲɞǷƷ

ŞȨGźľŃuumlƟ3b

ZKĠͿ

Ƿeumlɲɞźľ3ŃuumlƟKʾƬG

ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKƵǍGamp mZ-ɥė ˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ƿ3otildeĜĸUcircǷ3ƯDz

ȖKͿ Equity share excl local equity ownership

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp1ƻaeligGǷ3otilde

Ĝ

ͶǓƾ˙ʹPyʚɡ˺

ʗ3]bnKamp1ƷGǷ3

ʱͳ

Ƿ3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Total equity share

ĸUcirc3Ƿ3ƯDzȖ0E71ʱ

Ʒ]bn ˺]bnK

amp1ƻaeligGǷ3otildeĜ3

Ĝ˩

ĸUcircD7ĸUcircsup2ń3ƷŞNjAEligamp

Ƿ3ʱͳ

Ouml3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Debt share

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

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aRZn3ʱ]bn 100EǷ3otildeĜKƊampOacuteͿ

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate- municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠǘOacute

4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ȝģʌɞ Net tax rate

ǕƃĸǞŵǕƃ3Ȱlaquoʌ

ɞ3Ĝ˩ -˘ʆǕƃźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

80

shy MQ+Q

oacute-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

˛ȐʿNjAEligGʰƾʚ

ɡ]bn Manufacturer-provided maintenance

eacuteƀƄG4$3Ɣ1divide]

bn0-˛ȐʿNjAEligG

ʰƾʚɡ]bn

3]bn4żQOoyM3ˬʹ

]bn1Ġ=HGampeacuteǴ4e1

0G4-G

atildebgjy1DG˩ɩɱ

ʰƾʚɡ]bn Scheduled maintenance by internal staff

aRZnƯDzʿ3bgjy

1DGŚǴɱ0QOoyM

3ʰƾʚɡ]bn

bgjy1DGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

ń^wbŋʢ External service contracts

reg3˻Ȑʿ1DGŚǴɱ0Q

OoyM3ʰƾʚɡ]b

n

˻brvbarȐʿDGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

]bn Operation costs

QOoyM3ɥ1ƛ˞

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H14ecirc˷ǥͿǘOacuteȥcurren

ɂ3]bnKĠ ɏȏ Inspections

Ͷɏȏ3amp˻ȐʿK

ˇʇ-A˫3^wb˻

Ȑʿ-A0ľĜͿ

gzo3Ľġ2~4ƀȢͿĦ3ƴ˗ɏȏͶ 1 ļampF 2 ƀȢ1 1 ǡͿKĠɏȏ3ǨȂ4kW |b

-ˬŚ ˩ɩń3Icircɡ Unscheduled repairs

˩ɩń3Icircɡʰƾʚɡ ˙ʹ3ǖŇȥɛȯ$3reg3ńį1DG

ʰƾijŚͿũ˩ OampM costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ OampM costs variable subtotal

˫3Ńuumlʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝͳ-˘ ʚɡ Administration

QOoyM3ʚɡ

D7ɴɽ3]bn ʬƈəˇuumlD7ɗǛͿʗKĠ

Igrave Insurance

QOoyM$33

bZD7$3Ɛ1OtildeG

amp1ǓƱƀIgraveǛ

uumlɤIgraveǏŝUgraveuacuteɍ˚UgraveD7ɢĿ

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Gegrave3Igrave

ʡʭǛ Grid charges

ʡʭ93ʡ0E71ɥKǓ

ǎG31ƛ˞HGƀǛ

_4HKş|b3]bn

G4SrY]bnTHORNouml

G-G ʡʭ3]bnijŚͿ Grid costs fixed

˫3ʡʭǛ

ʡʭ3]bnŃuumlŃuumlͿ Grid costs variable

˫3ʬ˺ʛ]bn

^Pn3 Site lease

QOoyMKˬʹampĵ

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G ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

aRZnşƀ

kWͿ1ļ+aRZnǓƱƀʌͳ

ͼ|b3ʌ4˫3Z`n-ƀ

șŃuuml30ŃǘTHORNoumlG

1ȲƧ-4ş|b3ʌKʆ

$3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG ȸouml Electricity consumption

ouml3ˇŹȸ ʡʭ3ĝǴD7ɯƯ3uumlʗ3amp

_4HEKş|bG4

SrY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ɢĿɂŚ˰Egraveʗ Environmental measurements evaluations etc

QOoyM3˴ė0E7

1KʰƾG31ƛ˞0ƀ

ɢĿɂŚ˰Egrave

_4HEKş|bG4Sr

Y]bnTHORNoumlG-

G

81

reg3ƀ]bnijŚͿũ

˩ Other annual costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚɢĿɂŚǛ

ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ Other annual costs variable subtotal

˫3oumlȸ]bn

ƀ]bnijŚͿ Annual costs fixed

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ƀ]bnŃuumlͿ Annual costs variable

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘

Ts_-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ƀźľđdivide]bn Annal market participation fee

ʕyenɱoumlźľ1đdivideGamp

3ƀ]bn źľɥʿʡʭɥʿ1ǓƱ

ʬ˺Ǚ]bn Balancing costs

ͶoumlɯKěǨ1oumlʡ

ʭ1DžʯGamp3]bnʱͳ

aeligoumlcurrenɂ1Gś3ŀccedil]

bn

kW]bn4ȜƉ0ʬ˺ǙźľKG43]bnouml3źľ

Egraveȉ1Ġ=HGampccedilG3İ

0ľĜAG_4HE3]bn

Kş|b3]bnG4S

rY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ŋʢ]bnĕƊǛʗͿ Contract costs (transaction fees etc)

ŋʢ3ʰƾ1ƛ˞0ƀǓƱͳ kWh-˘ĕƊǛ

reg3]bn3ʱͳ Subtotal other costs

źľđdivide]bnʬ˺Ǚ]b

nŋʢ]bn3Ĝ˩

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKşǦ1GĽ

Ō kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƟʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źľoumlEgraveȉ Market price electricity

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

ƀſĹźľoumlEgraveȉ kWh

źľ˯ǮEgraveȉ Market price certificates

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ3

ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kWhǕʘ1DFG4źľ|b-ˬŚHGľĜGǘOacute4ecirc

THORNoumlG FITĔTHORN Feed-in tariff revenue

FIT1DGĔTHORN ż4aR

Zn]bn3ǓƱ3amp3ŀ

ccedilǓƱŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞK

ʄIgraveG31Auml ouml3źľEgrave

ȉKĠľĜAG

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐKŐampƀƄ1

ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlHG

reg3ĔTHORN3ʱͳ Subtotal other revenues

˫3reg3ĔTHORN3Ĝ˩

Ccedil ― shyocircocirc

shyocirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ʌƊntildedž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as a before-tax credit

ʌƊntilde

3ʌdž1ťGntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊntilde

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGʌ|b3ntildeƱ˚

ugrave3otildeĜHĝ otildeĜaRZ

n3ʱͳoͿG4ˬOtildeşampF

3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ

82

|b3PdlOz4aRZn1

DGʌƊntilde1ɥHGƕ)aR

Zn1ťEgraveOacuteaRZn3eacute

ƀ3˹ʌͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3

ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜaRZnG

G4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3

ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ

4_Ƹ-Gʌdž4Ĵ

ʌ13gtɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ

|-40Ϳ ʌƊƔdž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave AringΆUgraveČͿ Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as an after-tax deduction (eg depreciation)

ʌƊƔ

3ʌdž1ļ+ntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊƔ

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGYacute˖ʌdžH

ĝ otildeĜaRZn3ʱͳoͿ

G4ˬOtildeşampF3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ|b3Pdl

Oz4aRZn1DGʌƊƔ1ɥ

HG3ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜa

RZnGG4aRZn

ƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-G

ˣmiddotʇKƾ4_Ƹ-G

ʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥHGƕ

)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront cash investment subsidy

aRZnszligiquest1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ aRZnƷ]bnʱͳ1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml-3Ƚė˃ ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKǁGamp mZ-ɥė˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

shyl Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

kW-ʆHGƀʌͳ ȢƀǓƱD7ƀșŃuumlGş

|b3ʌͳ FITĔTHORNAringΆɯouml|b3PdlOzͿ Feed-in tariff revenue (eg production based incentives)

FIT G4ɯouml|b3PdlOz1DGĔTHORN

ż4aRZn3]bnK

31˞ȨHGŀccedilǓƱ1

ŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞKdivideampOacute

ouml3źľEgraveȉKdivideGľĜA

G

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐɱɥKŐampƀƄ

1ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǨCcedilœǛiacuteƄKɥ

GĴoPkʗͿ4ƀ3ǘOacuteAring

$HƀK Ś0

AͿKTHORNoumlG FITǕʘǴ Feed-in tariff policy period

FIT G4ɯ˚ugraveǓƱJHGʱǨ

aRZn1ƦŚHGʪȽɱƕŎǴ

K0ʜı3Ǵɮ0H5 FIT3ǓƱ|Aɮ0)Gė˃Ɵ

83

GFIT ǕʘǴ3Ĝ˩OacuteK1THORNoumlG

ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž Production-based before-tax credits

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b30J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊntilde

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊntilde|

b-aRZn1ɥH

G

aRZn3ʌǓƱntilde1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGɯouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿƕ)aRZn1ťEgraveOacuteņaRZneacuteƀ3˹ʌ

ͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteK

ĖGćɜaRZnGG

4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDz

ucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gt

ɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40

Ϳ ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž3ǕʘǴ Production-based before-tax credit policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHGǴ

3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɯ|b3ʌƊƔdž Production-based after- tax deductions

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b0J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊƔ

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊƔ|

b-aRZn1ɥHG

aRZn3ʌǓƱƔ1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKĖGćɜaRZnGG4

aRZnƯDzʿĝƀƄ3ʌdžKDzucirc

1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥ

HGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ɣɤļɵ3džʌƊƔͿ

ǕʘǴ Production-based after- tax deductions policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHG

Ǵ3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power bonus

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKEumlGamp

3ĽŌ kWh

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƄʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWh

źľEgraveȉ˯Ǯ Market price certificates

źľG4Ǖƃ3Ǖʘ1D)

ˬŚHampQOoyM

3aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ

3ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kW_4ɮ0Gźľ-0J(ěʍ3źľEgraveȉ-Ϳłamp3˯

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divideUgraveČ Accelerated Depreciation

OtildeĦ3ͳK˺middot˩D

7ʌťʘUgraveČG˩ɩ ěƀƄ3UgraveČͳ4ɤ3ˀɥƀǘ3eacuteǴD

FBBƀ|b-eacuteǴƷʱͳ

3ͼˬŚG UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

3m-4_aRZn3

EgraveOacuteKUgraveČGƀƄ$3UgraveČɞKŚʻ

GșƀƄsup2ȢƀȟͳKUgraveČGǞȰK

ɥGĴ-4_UgraveČ˩ɩEgrave

ͳKdegɡȖ˖Auml1D)˟ʏG

dj

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

yacuteYj Financial gap

aRZn3˺1ƛ˞

HGyacuteYj ʱ]bn˺]bnͿEƛ˞

HGǷeumlɲɞ93Ʒ1ƛ˞0ĔTHORN

PdlOzKƊampOacute ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave Levelized electricity generation cost

QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘ

1QOoyM-ɣɤH

amp kWh3ɠķ3ǡſĹ]bn

szlig3]bnKĠƷaumlƷ

ʰƾͿĔTHORNPdlOz˺]

bnĹʗĀĎEgrave4otildeƊɞͶ3ˀɥƀ

ǘKɥ˩ʙ

• 表紙13
• 要旨13
• 目次13
• 第1章 7ヶ国の風力発電の財務コスト13
• 第2章 デンマーク13
• 第3章 ドイツ13
• 第4章 オランダ13
• 第5章 スペイン13
• 第6章 スウェーデン13
• 第7章 スイス13
• 第8章 米国13
• 付録A 変数および用語解説13

i

F3EH+ amp 268 (IEA Wind Task26)

H6GD13E7

IEA Wind Task 26

Multi-national Case Study of the Financial Cost of Wind Energy

K =

2011) 30

Work Package 1 Final Report

March 2011

$ltL

Paul Schwabe National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Sander Lensink Energy Research Center of the Netherlands

Maureen Hand National Renewable Energy Laboratory

(9

Athanasia Arapogianni European Energy Association

Alberto Cena Spanish Wind Energy Association

Karlynn Cory National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Markus Geissmann Swiss Federal Office of Energy

Klaus Hammes Swiss Energy Agency

Stefan Luxembourg Energy Research Center of the Netherlands

Angeles Mora Sanchez Spanish Wind Energy Association

Edweard James-Smith Ea Energy Analyses

Jan Wallach Deutche WindGuard

Paul Wilczek European Energy Association

The IEA Wind agreement also known as the Implementing Agreement for cooperation in the Research Development and Deployment of Wind Energy Systems functions within a framework created by the International Energy Agency (IEA) Views findings and publications of IEA Wind do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the IEA Secretariat or of all its individual member countries IEAŭsup2szligplusmnŭĒŬAHSĘĠŠĒ-ampatildesup2szligplusmn+$10+iexclŪ8MZ`oacuteŢ (IEA) ograveĥicircī)|oacuteij0plusmnľŀĘĠĭiacute-amp~ąĆAring+ IEAimicro+aĕŋiexclľŀ0THORNş2ĺ+

ii

F3EH+ amp 268 (IEA Wind Task26)

H6GD13E7

I1C5J

K =

1C5

ĈġĸUgraveuumlk čethIacuteĹİĘĠEacute

aĵĜuumlk agraveecircŬoacutecedilethn

agraveecircŇą~ąŲ2012frac12 11aelig

gtB24

Şiuml CcedilĊ ŰġŮnotmacr Ĭmacrśuml(nŁmacr)ű

eacuteeuml Ű8=X5NĘĠEacuteuml(iexclŪŢxmacr)ű

gmiddot iquest Űparanotmacr notmacrťċsectmacrĘĠĝuml(macrĹ)ű

degď Ũ ŰŢļnotmacr AHSĊcedilmacrśuml(cedilmacr)ű

ecircyenauml

International Energy Agency Wind Implementing Agreement Task 26 ldquoMulti-national Case Study of the Financial Cost of Wind Energyrdquo (March 2011) httpwwwieawindorgindex_page_postingstask26task202620wp20120reportpdf

2ıń+0 ecircyenaumlĈġĸUgraveuumlk Yacute8MZ`_čethIacuteĹİŠĒoacuteograve (NEDO) regłiethotildeelŭĒŬIacuteĹĘĠŠĒŰcurrenĚ_AEligĎIacuteĹĘĠŠĒűaċotildeelŭĒŬcurrenĚAEligĎIacuteĹĘĠŠĒ_IEAiexcl|regnIgraveņsEgrave1+0

iii

`

ƽYjDpǀƽŊƻǁƋij 1h=N=aGKU(divideƖGKUƤƚųugraveƕ133+ƖƭƐƥGKU

4amp(THORNưŊƻƻƬƬǀŊƻƻƬǁĆAEligƃūĤntilde76GKUĵ79

ĪŔampƀ(ƽŊƻograveŊƻGKU9ƄŜ16rtlaquoĨ6GKUĵ7shy^lJE

UĘư9ƟUumlampqIacute6(Ƴ4ƽŊƻdivideƖŷ(ƽŊƻh=N=aGKU96Śszlig

őr^lJEU9ƯEacute67(ƽŊƻ^lJEUƊGKUYacutefrac34ƽƠčĬƸĎ

4amp7qźampƽŊƻƤƚųugraveƕamp(AumlOcircĻĈƕ133+ƩiexclķūĄampGKU

406raquoĖľccedil(61ƽŊƻGKU(shyfrac14ʼn60ĚAgraveplusmn

(ĸ9vegraveampƑ6 ĚœŝŎŋ(7nfrac14ƽŊƻGKUUgraveʼnbrvbarcedil9frac14ƹYjDpħƱ (IEA) ƽIcircċcentIacuteŠ 26

ŘƽŊƻGKUsAEligfrac14zœŝĮƛamp35łƇ66Ěœŝamp(Tm`pE

V=RAhmOK_=mKgtpTmK=KŦfrac14sect6ņlaquoŸTpNƳ476

0(xƶrƽŊƻograve9ocirc6ĴrƽŊƻograveGKUTpN1OcircĆ6Agraveplusmn

7135Hm^j9deg06 Ěœŝ(ĩ 2 ƧĤntildeamp6ƽŊƻGKUģƃ7Ʊ6AEligfrac14ưĮƛĝűĞ

9Ƒ6ĩampshyfrac14zœŝampƱshyfrac14yumlŖƀŋƽŊƻċƊGKU9ĝ6 ĝ(frac14amp3ʼn6ƽŊƻGKU9ƏĎ60xƃĶIacutepoundfrac34šiexclŊƻbrvbar

(LCOE) 9yacute6LCOE(ľIacuteƽŊƻ^lJEUh=N=aampƃ6GKUŴƈ9Łfrac12ampaacuteTHORNưŊƻƻƬampiquest frac34šiexcl6^lJEUthornIacuteƤƚTHORNĆ9Ƙńībrvbar2

Ō(LCOEampdeg0 LCOEƈţĊIJ(6ĚAgraveplusmnĒ(ĩ 2ƀŋƄƇ133+^lpP9ģƏ6

1(ƿĩIWiAƈň^lpP1 1(ƿszligƔCdQIelpĝ^lpP6ĚAgraveplusmnĒĝ(xƔCdQIelpĝ9vegrave6aringĝ(sectƒfrac14ƽŊƻ^lJ

EUampƱ6įưdivideƖIumlƄƇ9ƀ16 ĝ(AhmOYjDpœŝMmNp (ECN) LCOEthornIacute0ampƯŊK^kQVIpUamp

iquest CdQIelpcTj9ņ ECNcTj(sectƒfrac14GKUĤơ9ƽŊƻ^lJEUfrac14divideƖIumlƆĸ4ƀampņƌŭaacuteCdQIelpcTj6ĝ

(shyfrac14ƽŊƻ=mMmSlt]9uumlƵ ECNcTj9ņ135aring LCOEthornIacute(Ɓƭ9aeligAacutereg6 Ɓƭ9aelig LCOEĝűĞ(Ěœŝocircƒfrac14ưŽʼn6 ES-1ampŖƟ5frac14

LCOE(Tm`pE 61fplMWhǀ85VjMWh 61kWhǁ4K=K 120fplMWhǀ167VjMWh 12 kWhǁ6brvbarij1 Ƌij 2

Ƌij 1 qźampČĚņƎ(Ŋƻņƞ~Aringamp12thornƣņǀĀİņƽƙŧuacuteņƽƙUcircŻ

šǁoacuteĬ9 degqĊƽŊƻņƎ( 20 uũ~ƲŊƻņ ldquowind energyrdquo 6ņƎ(ľampćŹrăƺƳ5ƽŊƻƋcost of wind energyrdquo 6ņƎ(ƽŊƻGKUŲqƋ6

brvbarij1 ĹēkpU( 1fplDŽ139Vjƈţ Ƌij 2 ĚćvāţƀŖ(ŶƋŷamp36ƝĹēkpU( 1fpl100ƈţ

iv

ES-1 6CtNA LCOE2008Wl 3

frac34šiexclŊƻbrvbar

(LCOE) fplMWh VjMWh kWh

K=K 120 67 120 AhmO 94 131 94 V=R 85 118 85 K_=m 83 115 83

KgtpTm 67 93 67 Ŧfrac14 65 91 65

Tm`pE 61 85 61

Ɓƭ9aelig LCOE (ŊƻƻƬdivideƖGKUƤƚųugraveƕƖƭƐƥGKUfrac14amp3ʼn60AumlCcedil6yicircƟ5shyfrac14 LCOE acircƼĔ1Ccedil(yĘ76ŊƻƻƬ57(raquoĖƽıH=UƦoslashƽƙƊƈƃcedilampƗcedil6ƻUacuteAacuteĤơiexcl2ƽ

Ŋƻ^lJEUdivideƖiKEucircĊUacuteAacute1ƖĚŋăƖƭƐƥGKU$41CcedilAuml

8 LCOE ampacircƼ6ƽŊƻ^lJEUƤņampƗcedil6GKU(frac14amp3Ccedilʼn1357amp( LCOE 1CcedilacircƼ6ƤƚųugraveƕAgraveplusmnTpNƇƪamp(ijiumleacuteƃ6shyfrac14ư LCOE AumlampƱ6ľccedilŋƃcedilamp(Įƛĝş133+ĚAgraveplusmnĒfrac14zœŝş4ampƌyacute ĔaumlampLOCEƈţēŋ^lpPampťpoundampƜ-6)ƿĩƈňŢIacuteIWiA(ƿszlig

aacuteCdQIelpoacuteIJ(poundŪiexclĊIJ LCOE 9thornIacute6poundŪoacuteIJ(ĎŔƖƭƐƥĘưCdQIelpŰĐŋAumliexcl9icircIacuteampƖƭƐƥoacuteĬqľccedil9ƀ3qźŋ

aacuteŀ9Ʀ635poundŪƿĩƈňIWiAoacuteIJ(6[hbpNĆ9ĔOacuteƳampƌŭ

ŚszligampecircAEligśAEligĥŊƻLCOE9ETHďampĮƛ63amp6aringLCOEshyśƈţ(7ampņĊIJ2ģeuml9ĪŔampő6eacuteƃ5Įƛ133+Ƈƪ(ethƫampžė

Ƌij 3 ƀvāţƀŖ(ŶƋŷamp36ƝĹēkpU( 1fpl100ƈţ

v

v h

` iii

| 1 72NCtE 1

11 1 12 vu]k 1 13 CtO~FH 2 131 GKUƃū 132 copy=mMmSlt] 133 AringƧigrave 134 LCOEcTjƏĎ 135 cTjiquestĚŋGmM^U 136 LCOE FGƈţ 14 IDN6Ct 6 15 QK$4 s 6 16 JN$ZTLCOEIn4 6 17 LCOESNj 8 18 IDNm6Ct 11 19 9 LCOE]k 13 110 LECOEBXqj 13 111 14

| 2 $1+4 16

21 $1+4Ctf 16 211 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 212 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 22 $1+4 2008Wu13Ct) 19 221 ƶrƽŊƻ 222 ĴrƽŊƻ 223 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 224 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 23 $1+4Ct) 25

| 3 amp 28

31 ampCtf 28 311 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 312 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 32 ampu1363m6Ct) 30 321 ƶrƽŊƻ 322 ĴrƽŊƻ

vi

323 V=Rƶr^lJEUǀ2008THORNǁsectĺFpKGKUĮƛ 324 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 325 copy133+ăĂbBXLa 326 ƔDdQ^ 33 34

| 4 -1 36

41 -1Ctf 36 411 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 412 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 42 -1u13Ct) 37 421 ƶrƽŊƻ 422 ĴrƽŊƻ 43 -1Ct)McpY 39 431 AhmOƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ 432 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 433 copyăĂbBXLa 434 ƔDdQ^ 44 41

| 5 1 43

51 1Ctf 43 511 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 512 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 52 1 2008Wu13Ct) 46 521 ƶrƽŊƻ 522 ĴrƽŊƻ 523 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 524 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 525 ƔDdQ^ 53 1Ct) 50

| 6 4$1 52

61 4$1Ctf 52 611 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 612 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 62 4$1u13Ct) 53 621 ƶrƽŊƻ 622 ĴrƽŊƻ 623 KgtpTmƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ 624 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 625 ƔDdQ^ 63 4$1Ct) 57

| 7 60

71 Ctf 59

vii

711 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 712 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 72 u13Ct) 60 721 ƶrƽŊƻ 722 ĴrƽŊƻ 73 Ct)McpY

61

731 GKUĮƛ 732 copyăĂbBXLa 733 ƔDdQ^ 73 63

| 8 N 65

81 NCtf 65 811 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 812 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 82 N 2008Wu13Ct) 66 821 ƶrƽŊƻ 822 ĴrƽŊƻ 823 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 824 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 825 ƔDdQ^ 83 NCt) 73

A Rr 76

viii

L5

ordm 1-1 ƽŊƻGKU ordm 1-2 ƔDdQ^ī6copy=mMmSlt]amp36ŊƻGKUŐĭ ordm 1-3 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14ŊƻƻƬǀƓżĐưǁ9sup2űĞ ordm 1-4 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14divideƖGKU9sup2űĞ ordm 1-5 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14Ƥƚųugraveƕ9sup2űĞ ordm 1-6 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14ƖƭƐƥGKU9sup2űĞ ordm 1-7 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14Ĥntildeƃū9sup2űĞ ordm 1-8 shyfrac14xƃGKU[hbpN LCOEacircƼ ordm 2-1 Tm`pEƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 2-2 TmsectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 2-3 Tm`pEƢŨGKUGKUƨcTj ordm 2-4 Tm`pEcopyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 3-1 V=RTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 3-2 V=RƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 3-3 V=RƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 4-1 AhmOTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 4-2 AhmOsectĺFpKĮƛordm ordm 4-3 AhmOƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 5-1 K_=mTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 5-2 ƅĈƭKCpathornř ordm 5-3 UacuteAacuteA^Igmamp136ĔŮǀUacuteAacuteĠǂAgraveEgraveƭǁ ordm 5-4 ƻyenUacuteAacuteamp136ƽŊƻETHƬǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 5-5 YacuteČƻ^pjĠAumlŀTHORNYacutefrac34ǀ2003Dž2009THORNǁ ordm 5-6 2008THORNampƊŵ7ƽƙH=LƋ ordm 5-7 K_=m133+sectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 5-8 K_=mcopy133+ƽŊƻąŢ=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 6-1 KgtpTmTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 6-2 KgtpTmƽŊƻGKU ordm 6-3 KgtpTmƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 7-1 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 7-2 K=KƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ ordm 7-3 K=KƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 8-1 Ŧfrac14THORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 8-2 Ŧfrac14133+sectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 8-3 Ŧfrac14copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ

ix

5

ƀ ES-1 ƶrƽŊƻfrac14 LCOEǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-1 ƽŊƻ^lJEUƖĚdivideƖGKUƃū ƀ 1-2 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻoumlſŋ[hbpNǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-3 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻƔ[hbpNǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-4 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻ LCOE FGǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-5 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEUoumlſŋ[hbpN ƀ 1-6 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEUƔ[hbpN ƀ 1-7 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEU LCOE133+ FG ƀ 1-8 aacuteŀ LCOEĊIJĮƛ ƀ 2-1 Tm`pEƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (MW) ƀ 2-2 Tm`pEƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW) ƀ 2-3 ƓżĐưampiquest FIT9deg06Z]ƿlpNŏatildeŊƻħETHƬʼn6 4ƽƙŐNtildeŋ

ƀ 2-4 ƓżĐưampiquest FIT9deg0Z]ƿlpNŏatildeŊƻħETHƬʼn6 4ƽƙŐNtildeŋ ƀ 2-5 Tm`pEƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 2-6 Tm`pEƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 2-7 Tm`pEƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ƀ 2-8 2007THORN 2008THORNTm`pEamp136ƽŊƻ LCOE0 ƀ 3-1 V=RŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-2 V=RTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-3 V=RƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 3-4 V=RƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 3-5 V=RƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 3-6 V=RűĞ0 ƀ 4-1 AhmOŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-2 AhmOĪsup2THORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-3 AhmOƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 4-4 AhmOƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 4-5 AhmOƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 4-6 AhmOűĞ0 ƀ 5-1 K_=mŬŜƊŵƬ (GW) ƀ 5-2 K_=mTHORNưOgraveƬ (GW) ƀ 5-3 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 5-4 K_=mƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 5-5 K_=mƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 5-6 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEU0 ƀ 6-1 KgtpTmŬŜƊETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-2 KgtpTmTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-3 Lillgrunden^lJEU ƀ 6-4 KgtpTmƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 6-5 KgtpTmƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 6-6 KgtpTmƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

x

ƀ 6-7 KgtpTműĞ0

ƀ 7-1 K=KŬŜƊETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-2 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-3 ƖƭƐƥGKUƈţ

ƀ 7-4 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 7-5 K=KƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 7-6 K=KƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

ƀ 7-7 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEU0

ƀ 8-1 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-2 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-3 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 8-4 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 8-5 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]

ƀ 8-6 Ŧfrac14űĞ0

1

Aring 1Auml 7Ozuumljfrac14dividearingm-1

11

2009 ƀȚŵĜ (EU) 4Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşKǝamp1 10163 MW divideʟĴ-4 9994 MW Kdivideamp (EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)3 2009ƀ1GˬOtildeş3ŀdivide1DFͶoumlɯ4 EU-4ǰņ3ʟĴ-4ʖ 2frac143ǝamp0Ʌ0)G(EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)ɪɱ1AsectĀɎʥǃaeligethȿĀʂɗǛ3ŘszligIgraveBŘŚAEligʬ3ĪͲ)ampǘ3ɡɦ1DFͶoumlɯ3˞40)G szligɪ-ͶoumlɯɯKŮ-Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bnCcedilɓŝ10)Gė˃

ƟAGͶoumlɯ3ƷŞ4ͶoumlɯƯ3PygP]bn1aRZn3ɯ˩ɩ1ĕF

)ampǨɏEȣɱʄ0ʀ˾Kƾ)GH4ͶoumlɯɯaRZn3ˬOtilde]bnſĹͶKǣ

Ƞ-ʀG-GE-F=ampͶoumlɯ3Ńuumlˊ1Ū0ɗǛ]bnEsectĀɎ

ʥAǃaelig0E-G3D0ijDz3ɚƙG1AͶoumlɯ3]bn463Ĵ3

-AaRZn1=ampěĴņɮ0)FǷʃʐ-43ɏ1ɒɏKƎG

12 frac34frac12sup2

Ƿʃʐ-4ĴSrYȗͶoumlśǟąŚʖ 26ccedilʉmiddot (IEA Wind Task26)Ͷoumlɯ3]bn131ļ+ěĴ3bʃʐKɥ7 Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3ɸ3ĎįKDŽGđdivideĴ4mZoPkUhbPbQRmbPbʟĴ-G Ͷoumlɯ]bn3˟ʏF-4Ʒ]bnʰƾ˺]bnƀɯoumlɯoumlͿ

)ampǘŅ3Ȓƭ˞ʥK˰EgraveHE3]bn3ȵHaRZnǴszligiquest-ŃĀGKDŽGƛ

˞G3aRZn-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnK˷ǥȣGamp3˞0ɂŚćfrac14ĹʗĀɯ

ĎEgrave (LCOE) Kȏ˪ampLCOE 4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3PygP]bn3Ĝ˩OacuteKɠķ1otildeƊƀɯouml1ļ+ĹʗĀampOacute-GLCOE4ɮ0Gˤɏ1ʑ)ampěʍ3ǞȰBưȰKɥ˩ʙG-GǷĽġ-4HE3ˡɏD7Ni3(ș`pU˩ɩȰƄyacuteX

j`yccedilǿȰ3 2KɥG ǷĽġ1Gccedilǿ3ņccedilȤƷŞ3ˡɏEěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnK˰EgraveampA3-

GDFacirciquestɱ1˧5ǷĽġǮ3 LCOE ccedilǿʫȁ4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴatildeƷŞěɥampmǞȰKɥěˇ3aRZn3K˺GbrvbarAring13Ĵecirc3yacute]bnK˘ampA3-GɫƧ

4Ƿʃʐ1Gyacute]bn3ȣ4Ͷoumlɯ3ʇmiddotɱɥ0J(3SrY3eumlɥ1

DFʇmiddotƺG]bnͿK˰EgraveampA3-40-G Ͷoumlɯ3yacute]bn3˩ʙ-4ͶoumlɯaRZn1Gˬʹ˺1ƛ˞HGegrave

3Ǔaelig1GccedilǿʫȁK˘1G3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʣ]bn3˰Egrave1divideěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ

aRZn3ƯDzʿeumlɥ-GĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3PdlOzK˷ǥ˽Ĵ-ɣ G]bn˞ʥ3

KǥE1G ǷĽġǮ-4= LCOE KȒƭG]bn˞ʥKʞć1˷ǥș1ǷaRZn3-ɯHampb

jo`nm1˷ǥGěđdivideĴENjAEligHampmg1ļ+đɔbKŚʻ˽Ĵ1aacute

Gȣ3PnKǥE1GěĴ3ĎEgrave˞ʥKđɔbȣͶoumlɯ3 LCOE 3ŸɮKɣ GĎįKǥE1Gș3dZ`-4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEdegǯɱǞȰKʞć1˷ǥͶouml

ɯ3ĹʗĀĎEgraveK˩ʙGș1đɔb-Śʻamp]bn˞ʥ1ļ+LCOELJŚOacute3K˷ǥɥGǞȰ31D) LCOE ŃJ)GKś˯GǰƔ3ʒ-ěđdivideĴ3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3]bn˞ʥK=˷ǥGsup2ǷĽġǮ3ȑ˞-G

2

13 uumljfrac14divideAElignp[

131 -1UacuteIgrave

Ͷoumlɯ3]bn˞ʥ4ǷƷ]bnʰƾD7˺]bn-GHEě

1ěʍ3]bn˞ʥĠ=HGǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampIuml3]bn˞ʥ4Uograve A1ʆF-G ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ņͳ3ǷƷKƛ˞$3Ȓƭ˞ʥ4Ͷ-0ŅʍŅȓ-G

Ugrave 1-1 1ʆD1Ʒʱͳ3ʢ 75Ͷ3]bn-FȟF4˘1=ampD1ʡʭʡļʅˬʹ0E71ƈˬ1G]bn-GHE3]bn4oPkmZbPˏĴ33m

g1ļ+GǑĐ]bn4aRZnŐǨ1ʄIgrave3]bnKƎeacute3ǷƷ1ĠG

KʻyacutemacrGĴAG

Ugrave 1-1 uumljfrac14divideBL0+ccedilyenccedil-1UacuteIgrave

ʱ]bn1ĈGotildeĜͿ reg3]bn1żĈGotildeĜͿ ͶŶľɀͿ

ʡʭʡ ļʅ

ȥˬOtilde ĵĸ

yacute]bn ƈˬ

]^gn

68-84 2-10 1-9 1-9 1-5 1-5 1-5 1-3

ndashndashndash 35-45 20-25 10-15 5-10 5-10 5-10 5-10

ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

ʰƾ4Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥ-ż4IgraveʚɡD7ŚǴɱIgraveŗɏȏ^wbŋʢ

)ampijŚĠ=HGŃuuml1Ġ=HG34ˊ1˩ɩɱG4˩ɩń3IgraveŗɏȏBĦordfnj3]bnʗ

-GHE3]bn4ƀƄ1D)ɮ0GampaRZnǴK Xj`y3ȵHŚ

Gsup3Ś˟ʏFK˖ŅͶoumlɯaRZn-4ƀ3ɗǛ˞-Fƕ)

ʰƾƀ]bn3ņĄKĈG10G3oumlźľ-4oumlʡʭ^wb1macrɣ Gɑ

ucircouml˚Ugrave]bn03]bnͶoumlɯaRZn-ƛ˞10GľĜG LCOE3ņccedilKĈG3yacute]bn-GͶoumlɯaRZnƈˬ3ļɵ0GyacuteȒ3ʍ͵0E

71macrGOumlD7Ƿ3Ȓƭ˞ʥAĴ1D)˒ɮ0G=amp$H1ťǴƒ-Geumlɲ1

AOumlBǷ3ƷŞ1D)Ž4ż1ņE14ěĴ3ȰlaquoʌȒAͶoumlaRZn1macr

Gyacute]bnʱͳ1ƐG x 1-14Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3˟ʏF1Ġampěʍ3]bn˞ʥƷ]bnƀʰƾyacuteŃǘʗͿ

KʆampA3-GͶoumlɯaRZn3ǰʨɱɣɤə4ouml-GampLCOEKƀɯouml-ĹʗĀGƛ˞Gɯouml4Ͷ3əɡɱɚƙD7ɚŚ3aRZn^Pn3ͶɅ3ɚƙ1ŷęHG

132 s_N3N9A

ouml4ͶoumlɯaRZnƯDzʿłGĩĦ-oumlźľ4Ĵ1D)ɮ0G3aRZn4Ͷ

oumlɯ1G]bn1ɒɏKƎěoumlźľ1GĔTHORNPdlOzK=ampA3-Gɯ

1DGĔTHORN1divideěʍ3PdlOzKAuml)Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKʄś1ĮĔ-GD1GH

E3PdlOz14ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ(FIT)ɣɤ1Ɯ ampʌͳdžaumlɣė˃SrY˯ǮG4reg3VqcG

3

x 1-1 uumljfrac14divide-1 ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

133 icirc

Ͷoumlɯ1Gɶ3Ņ=žĀHEHE4ĔTHORNB]bn3˰Egrave1Ġ0

HE4ɯƴ˗3oacuteșɱƐ1GńƟG4ʇmiddotɱɥ-Gˊ1aumlɣė˃SrY3ƴ˗4

ƕǽĺɅ3ƴ˗1ȣńƟ3Ɛż1Ū0IEA3 ldquoRenewable Energy Costs and Benefits for Society (RECaBS)rdquo aRZn-4ǥƟ3ǞȰKɥƕǽĺɅaumlɣė˃SrYɅKȣɯ3]bnEacuteɲKLJŚG (RECaBs 2007)ReCABS3ǞȰ˼1DH53ccedilǿ14ș3 53ńƟĠ=HG

ȥNtildeŃuumlɁŜucircȁWbɚ1 CO2D7 CH4Ϳ reg3ņȥȩȃɅSOxNOxD7ʠőͿ ʡʭʡoumlPy93divide]bn oumlʬ˺ǙͶ3şZajnˮȲ 41DGȿͳʗͿ

ɗǛAEligʬ3ŘszligIgraveɗǛTHORN3ĴatildeɅ-3degɥ HE3ńƟ1divideͶoumlɯ4ɗǛ3ȸB$H1sup1ɗǛEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ŷęH0Ͷoumlɯƴ˗

93ƷbZ4ĀʂɗǛ1DGɯƴ˗3bZyMPɮ0GHEszlig3ɚƙ1DFͶoumlɯ

ƴ˗reg3ɯƴ˗3EgraveOacuteNjȊ1G˞0ɚƙɣ GǷʃʐ4$3ȣ˰EgraveK˱gtampA3-

40

134 LCOEGKaacute

UhSrYʃʐdg (ECN) AcircƭampXj`ym4ǷaRZn1G

ˮȲ 4 şZajn (capacity credit) ʡʭŘŚƄ1ƤƐK0ʜı-Ͷoumlɯ1D)ƕǽĺɅHʹnj

EHGKʆȣɞAring5 şZajn 303ľĜǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ 1 GW1ťƕǽĺɅK 03GWȿEG-GşZajn1G˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

4

LCOEyacuteYj (FG) 3˟ʏF3ļɵ0)G3 ECNm4otildeƊXj`ym-Ǝeacute4Uh1Gaumlɣė˃SrY3˚ugrave3ɯAEligʬĽŌK˩ʙGamp1AcircƭHampA3

-Gɠķ ECN43mKɥUhǕƃ1ěʍaumlɣė˃SrYƸ˂3ɣɤ]bnK3ʋƄ1ugrave˧GIEAWind Task26KɯŮ-đdivide˽Ĵ3]bnȒK˟ʏAGamp3mKIcircȜƼņͶoumlɯ3]bnKȄ˳ʧ1˩ʙ-Gkamp3mKȒƭ

G34ɯƯ^PcǨszligːǨˀɥƀǘƷ]bnʰƾaRZn3˺

3ɚƙ)ampmĀ3amp3vg0E71Ɓʜ0vg-GěĴD7==0ˠ

iacuteiquestiacute13mKɥ-$3ȗ˃ŅɥƟǔīHGAring5Xj`y

mKǔ˨ͶoumlɯaRZn3ěˠiacuteiquestiacute1ƕ==0ƴ˗ɱyacuteɱvg1ɥ-

GD1amp3D0Ȅ0m4Ʒ]bnʱͳ3˩ʙ3gt0Eěʍ3ɥ3ɚƙByacuteưȠ

0E71ĴQOoyM3PdlOzK˷ǥG-˞-G

135 GK|yenfrac12-N3B

Xj`ybjo`nKɥͶoumlɯ3]bnK˳ʧ1˩ʙG$3szligvgKUograve A1ʆ3bjo`nm4 6 3Z`n-ȒƭHǰeacute3 3 3Z`n4ɚŚ3Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3˩ʙ1ƛ˞0˳ʧƥĽKNjAEligGamp3A3-G ǰeacute3Z`n4ƀșŃuuml3013ŃǘKŚGA3-GH14aRZn3ɚƙƷ]b

nʱͳǑĐ]bnʱͳĎȲ2szligːǨ1ɔEampǨ]bn˩ʙ3˩ɩťǴĠ=HGƷ]b

nǑĐ]bn4ěʍ3Ȓƭ˞ʥ3ʱͳ˘-GH4ś3]bn3Ÿɮ3ŅĴȣ3

amp3ƥĽKNjAEligHG=amp3Z`n1DFPyŃuuml]bnŀK˷ǥGampͿOumleuml

ɲɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞ0E71OumlǷȣɞaRZn1macrGyacutebZKēǧGampͿ)

ampěʍ3yacuteŃǘKŚG-GE13Xj`ym4ĴBŵ3ȰlaquoʌKʾƬampA

3-G ƀșŃuuml13Z`n14ʰƾĸdegʡʭ]bn)ampƀijŚŃuuml-ȒƭHG

ěʍɶĠ=HFHEK˳ccedil͵ěĴ-ȣ-GD1G=amp-ȥǛBʧ

ȪŚ˞įŋʢ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnʗͿKŚʻG ʖ 33Z`nǕʘ13-4ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT)ʌͳdž$3reg3PdlOzKȏ˪G

3m3U`ȿʌ3EacuteɲKaRZn3Xj`y1ŚampFɑiacuteĎȲ31

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13D7LCOEXj`y13Z`n-˖

136 LCOE FGYacuteEgrave

LCOE FG4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEXj`yK˩ʙampʫȁ-GampĞɶ3ʌƊƔǷeumlɲɞKLCOE FG3otildeƊɞɥGraquo LCOE FG14ě3˩ʙ1ɮ0GXj`y3ȵHKĠGH1sup21ȑ˷G ż3ľĜLCOE3Ľġ14ƷǓaeligƀ]bnȿEgraveUgraveČD7ƸampotildeƊɞAumlJHGƕ)

3Ȃʩgtatilde1G LCOE 3˩ʙOacute4ƷǓaelig3ƾccedilotildeĜszligǴ3otildeƊʌƊƔXj`yʱͳKeȜģɠķEgraveOacute (NPV) G31ƛ˞0ɣɤCcedilœeumlɲŚʻHGLCOE3˩ʙ-4ɯG4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɚecirc1ɥHGPdlOzE3ĔTHORN3Xj`yKʾƬ0

ECN3 LCOE˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

ĎȲ2 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4ǑĐ]bnKaRZnƈʝǴ1ʄIgraveKĴʻyacutemacrGľĜ3gt3]b

nKĠamp ĎȲ3 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4szlig3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKɑiacute13sup3Śamp=Feumlɥė˃0szlig3ȿʌ3ơƣKřszlig1ĖEH

GD0Xj`yăccedil1œķG-G

5

H41ɠķ FG3˩ʙ-4Ͷoumlɯ1ijDz3ɯɱPdlOz3Xj`yfynYacute˖Ʒʌļɵ3ƷugraveƭʗͿKʾƬG3Śʻ1ļ+brvbarś FG1D)ěĴ3 LCOEɯ0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ɱPdlOz1DFśɠHampeumlɲ3K˘G

ECNm3 FG˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

˫3D1ʌƊƔ3ƀXj`y14ouml3łĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3˚ugraveƱƮD7P

dlOzƀʰƾȽeumlƢǓƱ0E71yacuteľ3ȿEgraveUgraveČeumlődž3ʌƊƔͳ

E3Xj`yĠ=HG x 1-24LCOEƖEHampĔTHORNoumlźľĔTHORNFITAEligʬĽŌʗͿPdlOzD7yacuteYj

3EcircKʆampA3-G3IJ1ʆD1FGOacuteȜ3ľĜ4aRZnɯʿ3 LCOEK31ƛ˞0ĔTHORNƖEH0)ampƧģ-F3ľĜ4 LCOE KG3ăccedil0ĔTHORNƖEHampKʆĨG

x 1minus2 aringmH7Bmacrs_N3N9AampgtKQ-1Agravedeg

ʌƊƔ3Xj`yt

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ ndash

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

FG =

1 ndash ʌɞ times ƀʰƾ t ndash ʌɞ times euml t + ʌyacute3ȿEgraveUgraveČ t

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ +

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

LCOE =

6

14 rkzoumlRuumljfrac14divide-1

șʛ-4 Ĵ3aRZn3ǎugraveKGĴatildeƷŞ1)3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKđdivideamp 7Ĵ3Ĵecirc1ʆH14 ECN3mǞȰ˼KɥG˞0Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3ŃǘKŅĴ-ȣG1DFěĴ3ccedilFͶoumlɯaRZn3|bP]bnǥʄ10Geumlɥ

ė˃0mgEHGampȳͶoumlɯ3]bn4˳ʆ0ĽġHamp]bnmg3

Ūǘ3^KĠG

15 vQ5otildeordm

3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnƟ˃0E71yacutemgszligiquest3ȜʄDzucircƟKaeligǽGF˯ǥD

ampmgfb4ŅʍŅȓ-FĽġHampmg34ĴD7mgfb1DFɮ0)G

Aring5ĽġHamp]bn3mg42008 ƀ3ͳ-˘ampɠķEgraveȉK˘G3ŚEgraveȉǥʄ-0brvbarAringAG=ampsup21ǀGvgA2008 ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlaRZnK˘amp3A3-Gś14 2008ƀntilde1ɯȲHǓƱJHampbrvbarAringKĠGė˃ƟGmgEHGampampɉķɱ0ɿɹKIcircȜG-0)ampE1 IEA Task264ěĴ3deg˘ɱ013aRZnK˘KƧIJampA3-GͶoumlɯ3ś3]bn4^PnaRZn1D)ɮ0G

ƕ)sup23mg4ěĴ3szligˊɱɛȯ˷ǥ3amp3gt1ʆampA3-3ɏ1ɫƧ-G

16 tzGKLCOErmicroQ1

Ͷoumlɯ3Ĵecirc3]bnļǷampaRZn-4đɔb13Ĥ8ͿȣHG

3đɔb4ěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3deg˘ɱ0Ȓƭ˞ʥK˘A3-ƴ˗ɱvgaRZn3ɚƙƟ

˃Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bnʰƾʗͿyacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞ

ǴĴ3ʌɞʗͿ3ǞĠ=HGđɔb-4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘKńG=ampͶoumlɯ

KǓǎGĕFʩgt4Ĵ1D)ɮ0GampͶoumlɯǕʘBPdlOzAĠ0ƕ)đɔ

b-4 LCOE3˩ʙʫȁ3gtK˘ʆG Ĵecirc3ƴ˗ɱvgKUgrave 1-21ʆĎȲ4đɔb-43ěvgKszlig3Ĵ1Ga

RZn3ˬOtildeş3divideſĹ˩ʙGđɔb3ƴ˗ɱvg3OacuteA3˘1ʆF

2008 ƀ3ˬOtildeşȣɱņ)ampbQRmʟĴ$HH 98MW85MWͿ-ƄĜņ0)G7 Ĵ- 2008 ƀ1śǟHampdeg˘ɱ0aRZnKŅŪ0FAēǧ-GD1đɔb3divide14Ĵatilde3ʱSrYş-40aRZn3ˬOtildeşKɥGđɔb3aRZ

nȒʝ14==0Ƹ˂G$3ƸĴecirc3 LCOE G4 FG ˩ʙ1ƐG40ɏKƿǐG34˞-GđɔbNjAEligG342008 ƀ3Ĵecirc3ʫȁKȣGamp3ˊɱ0ɏ10 Ugrave 1-3 4Ĵecirc3yacutevgKʆampA3-Gě3yacutevg1szlig3Ĵ3ʼnOacuteKđɔ

b3OacuteɥGYacute1ampD1đɔb3˩ʙOacuteĴecirc3 LCOE B FG 3ʫȁ1ƐG40

ECN m-4otildeƊɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞKɥGǷdivideſĹ]bn (WACC) A3˘1ʆGWACC 4˜ǘ3yacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞĴ3ʌɞͿKyacute]bnszligiquestK˷ǥGćɂŚļɆ1ĠG Ugrave 1-41ĴecircD7đɔb3 LCOE FG3ʫȁKʆ3ʫȁ142008ƀ3 LCOEyacuteYj

3˩ʙʫȁKĠG3ʫȁ4Ĵecirc3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnszligiquestK˘ampʆampA3-G3Ͷ

oumlɯaRZn-Aś3 LCOE4ľƯaRZn1D)ɮ0)G

ĎȲ4 Ugrave 1-33mĀ3sup3Ś3amp3THORNoumlmg43gt-ʆG1ɫƧraquo LCOE FG3ʫȁ4

ʟo3Ǟ-ʆG

7

Ugrave 1-2 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divideOslashfrac12JFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h b

P bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b Ͷ^Pc(MW) ĎȲ5 23 20 30 20 24 20 17 21

Ͷļǘ 7 5 5 15 41 6 50 34 szligːǨ 2695 2260 2200 2150 2600 1750 3066 2628 ƷĎȲ6(eurokW) 1250 1373 1325 1250 1591 1790 1377 1449 ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 00 15 00 00 16 00 00 06 reg3]bn

euroMWhͿ 3 0 10 3 0 0 0 1

ʰƾijŚͿ(euroMWh) 000 4633 3139 000 001 000 860 629

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 12 0 13 20 11 31 5 11

njʰƾʱͳ

(euroMWh) 12 21 28 20 11 31 7 13

đɔb divide 61 38 57 114 366 46 318 NA

Ugrave 1-3 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14dividearingmJFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h bP

bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 55 50 70 50 50 60 50 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 110 95 150 100 120 70 75 100 Oumlyacute3otildeĜͿ 80 70 80 80 87 70 0 80 Ƿ3otildeĜͿ 20 30 20 20 13 30 100 20 ǴƀͿ 13 13 15 15 20 20 15 15 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 250 298 255 300 280 210 389 280

WACCͿ 52 56 60 59 47 49 75 49

Ugrave 1-4 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divide LCOE FGyuml2008Ā

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

bPb 120 (167) oPk 5 (7) Uh 94 (131) ʟĴ ndash1 (ndash1) oPk 85 (118) bPb ndash1 (ndash1) bP 83 (115) Uh ndash3 (ndash4)

bQRm 67 (93) bP ndash3 (ndash4) ʟĴ 65 (91) mZ ndash6 (ndash8)

mZ 61 (85) bQRm ndash8 (ndash11) đɔb 68 (95) đɔb NA

Ugrave 1-41ʆampD1Ĵecirc3 LCOE4bPb3 120MWh167oMWhͿĎȲ7EmZ3 61MWh85oMWhͿ=-Gđɔb3 LCOE4 68MWh95oMWhͿLJŚGěĴ3 LCOE ɮ0)G34Ĵecirc3ɯoumlʰƾǓaeligƷ]bn˺ǞȰ31DGA3-Gș1ěĴ3 LCOE1HE3vgĒltƐKDŽG

ĎȲ5 DF˳Ͷoumlɯ]bnccedilǿ14gɷƑtzſĹͶ)amp˞0vgKĠSrYAElig

ʬ1Gǥʄ0sup3ŚKĠG10G1ʆampLJŚOacute4ǷǮ1ʆampsup2ń3ƴ˗BĴşǦ1ȣ-GD

1ș3ćʣ0shyȓ3gtKʆA3G ĎȲ6 Yacute1ampD1Ʒ]bnD7aRZnƈˬ4 2008ƀ3A3sup3ŚGś14Ʒ]bnͶ3

ɯȲʗͿ14 2008ƀsup2ntilde3ǘŒĠ=HGė˃ƟG ĎȲ7 ɐǯn 1o139-njʙ

8

17 LCOEzoacuteplusmnecirc

ŅĴccedilǿ-4ěĴ1G 43˞0]bnvg3 LCOE93ƐKDŽ)ampĴecirc1 LCOEKLJŚ63]bnvgKĴecirc3Oacute$3reg3vgKđɔb3Oacuteamp3ccedilǿ14

|bPɂŚļɆđɔb3vgOacuteͿȣampĴecirc3THORNoumlvg3ƐKegraveFamp

3ŅĴccedilǿ-ȏ˯amp˞0vg14ɯoumlƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnKĠ

ampș13ʫȁKszlig3Ĵ3-ȣamp AringěĴ3szligːǨ3 LCOE 93ƐKx 1-3 1ʆ3IJ4 3 3ǥʄ0˱bKȣ

ampA3-G=Ɍˎ3Ȍ[y4Yacute1Ugrave 1-4 -ʆampěĴ3 LCOE K˘A3-szligTHORNoumlvgKĴecirc1ʆGș1ʳ4đɔbKʆA3-|bP3 LCOEK 68MWhszligvgKđɔb3OacuteG=ampʲˎ3jn4ȼĜbKʆA3-szligːǨKĴecirc3Oacute

$3reg3vgKđɔb3OacuteG x 1-31-6 4$HHɯouml˫đɔͿƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnK˘G

Ĵecirc3 LCOEɌˎ3Ȍ[yͿđɔb3 LCOEʳͿ43IJ-AŚ˞0]bnvg4ěIJ-ɮ0)FHKV-ccedilFǦʆG

x 1-3 rmicroQ1tzfrac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀkwIumlsect

x 1-4 rmicroQ1tzccedil-1kwIumlsect

9

x 1-5 rmicroQ1tzigraveeacuteETHaeligkwIumlsect

x 1-6 rmicroQ1tzccedilntildeacirciacute-1kwIumlsect

ěĴ3˞0Ͷoumlɯ]bn3vg34sup23D1˷ǥ-GampH1E0Ϳ frac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀăszligːǨ3Ĵ1DG14==0aacuteD7Iumlecirc3˞įƐ

GAring5oPk-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ1D)aRZnɯ4ͶɅ3 Ć1ƹB

EHGmZ-4Ĵatilde3ǵɯ3^PnKɯGntilde1Ͷ3ʹˬ˩1D)Ǡœ3Ͷ

oumlɯ^Pn3ˬOtildeǭǝEumlHGľĜAF$3ʫȁĴatilde3eacuteǴ3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn3

2008ƀ1ˬOtildeǭǝ3ť0)GbPb-4ű3NZdbEHGamp2008ƀ1śǟHampɯaRZn3ǘ4ŚHampA310)GʟĴ14Uumlccedil1ˍō0ͶɅ

KDzGaRZn^PnǘŅGʳ93NZdbeumlɥė˃ɞEHGamp

aRZnɥ^PnȪŚ14FFľĜ1D)4ɯ3aeligoumlƶiacuteKGKƖ00)

GǞbQRm-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ4Ƿʃʐ3reg3Ĵ4ĪͲ10)0Uh-4

FIT3ĽŌ3szligːǨ3ǰņOacute-ȪEHGampǰ0^PnKɯampFǰǝ3ƴ˗KɥampFGyacutePdlOzŪ00)Gė˃ƟG

ccedil-1ăƷ]bn4Ĵ1D)˒ɮ0GmZ-AUh-AszligːǨ1ļ+

ugraveƭ3 FITĽŌͶ3Ƹ1Ɛƕ)aRZn3Ʒ]bn1ƐGmZ-4szligːǨampF3˚ugrave3ͳKǰņ1Gampņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶUacuteYacute

HGǞUh-4˚ugraveKszligːǨ3ʜıatildeGampDF]bn3ŘͶ

10

ƴ˗ˡˡHGmZ-4oumlʡʭ93ʡ]bn)ampͶoumlɯaRZn3

ŨTHORN]bn34aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZn3So_oumlȸʿͿ

ǓƱ)G$3ampmZ3ʡ]bn4Ʒ]bn1Ġ=H0bPo

Pk$3reg33Ĵ-4ʡ]bn$3reg3ʡʭŀƍ]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿǓ

Ʊ)Famp)H4Ʒ]bn1ĠEHGbQRm14Ʒ]bn3ethȿ

ė˃10GD0ćʣĀHampʡʭʡưGoPk-4ͶoumlɯͶɅ3 Ć

1ƼņampʫȁɯbrvbarȐʿ4$3˚UgraveưȠŅ3aRZn-gɷƑ3ņ0ͶK

DFľƯ1ˬʹGKƖ00)GƷ]bn4gɷƑD7tz3ǘOacuteņ

0GͿbPb-4ű3ͶoumlɯaRZnɥ^Pn93NZdb=ampˠ

ȕ3ʪȽKȘGampƷ]bn0)G ʟĴ-4ņˠȕ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥEacuteɲ4ɚ1Ͷ3THORN1EcircFɯȲˠȕ

ņ0G1HEgraveȉotildeƊHG˯ǥHGʟĴ3QOoyM4đɔbD

FAaRZnˠȕņƷ]bnfrac12ampʟĴ3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4ǘotildeƊĖEHG

ơƣGˉģȻ1bQRm-4aRZn3ˠȕņ0)AEgraveȉ3otildeƊ

3ơƣ40H4 2008ƀ3bQRm3ˬʹ]bnmampaRZnşȣŪ0)ampamp-ė˃ƟG

igraveeacuteETHaeligăěĴʆampʰƾ3mg4ʄśƟşǦ1Iacuteͱ-0ǘOacute-G

mZ-4żͶoumlɯaRZn3OumlȖʿ4 5Έ10 ƀ3Ǵɱʰƾ^wbŋʢKƛ˞FH4ƀʢ 25kWĽġHGUh-4ʰƾ14żaRZnszligiquest-Ś3EgraveȉHG^wbŋʢ]bnD7ĸdegĠ=HFĽġH

G]bn45Έ23kWņoPk-Aǰfrac12 5ƀ3řszlig0^wbŋʢƛ˞HGľĜGbPb-4ʰƾ3ʪEHGuacuteNZd`wlO

3ĪͲ0E71Ͷ3ɼȧBcentȵ1D)reg3ĴDFʰƾ0)GʟĴ3

ʰƾ4ƀŨTHORNHampņˠȕ0aRZn-4ſĹfrac120)GD-GʟĴ-4

YN~jZbzoG4ɯȗ3ĦKordfnjGǨǴǣG˯ƻAcedilEHF

ƕ)ĽġHGmg3ʰƾ4ũ˰EgraveHGė˃ƟGoPk-AOtildeĦ3ordfnj

ƛ˞HGampũˠȕaRZn-4ʰƾ0)G=ampoPk4szligiquest3

ʰƾ3˞0Ȓƭ˞ʥͳ0ŚǴɱɠĸˡŤ3]bnĽġHGbQRm

-4ʰƾaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒ɮ0)G ccedilntildeacirciacute-1ăͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bn4ʟĴsup2ń3Ĵ-4ĝʋƄ-Gm

ZoPkUh-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿub`n1ļ+Ͷouml

ɯaRZn3K˺Goumlmiddotʇ-GľĜKż4aRZn$3A31D

)K˺GmZbQRm-4ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˊɱ1frac12

bZ3Ʒȗ˟0H$HaRZn33ȪŚ1ēǧHGʟĴsup2ń33Ĵ-

AaRZn3˺3Oumlȣɞ40)Fż4 60Έ87-G ʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn˺ǞȰ4(E5Aringńɱ-G2008 ƀ14ʟĴ3Ņ3aRZnż1ˇŹǷȣɞ55 100Ϳ-˺HaRZn1ļ+Ouml4lte-)ampH4Ǖƃ3yacute3˚ugraveiacuteƄ3amp-F3iacuteƄ1DFgjZb

SZPlO13ʀEHGSZPlOyMPpbȇƉɯ˖1DGǷ˺Ϳ1ɚĀHampƏƩ

ƞŀampgjZbSZPlOyMPpbUacuteYacuteHampampʟĴ-4regĴDFAǷ]bn

0)G0J(gjZbSZPlO4żOumlDFAͿ=ampʟĴ-4Ouml1D

G˺1D)aRZn3ɅKʄIgraveampb-4aRZn-40Ȱlaquo|-

3OumlK)GľĜ)amp =-3=x 1-31-61ʆamp 43˞0]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥD7ěĴ3 LCOEđɔ

b3 LCOEKx 1-71ʆ

11

x 1-7 rmicroQ1tzordfUacuteIgravekwIumlsect

x 1-8 4˞0]bnŃǘ3 LCOE 93ƐKE1ȣȏ˪Gamp1˞0]bnvgKĴecirc-40[1G3IJ-4ěĴ3]bnŃǘ3ƐD7đɔbȣampěĴ3 LCOE3ņKʆGȌ[y4ěĴ3 LCOE KŀdivideGOacuteKʆʲ3Ȍ[y4đɔbDFAěĴ3 LCOE Kfrac12GOacuteKʆ˞0]bnvgKLCOE đɔbDFŀdivideampʋƄȌ[yͿ3ņ1E1ʆGAring5ɯouml3ǰũŃǘ4bPbĽġampǘOacute-G

3Ĵ3ʰƾƷ]bnDFA LCOE KŀdivideG3ǰfrac12OacuteEǰOacute=-3Ĵecirc3THORNoumlvg3ʜıEɯoumlD7Ʒ]bn LCOE 1ǰAƐampJGH4ˊ1Đ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOEƨƄccedilǿˈG (IEA 2010 Cory and Schwabe 2009)ˉģȻ1ĽġHampʰƾ3ʜı4đɔbȣƷ]bn˺]bnDFA LCOE ŀdivide1ƐG3E ʰƾmg3ʄśƟeumlɥė˃Ɵƕ)THORNoumlvg3Ĵ1DG3ņLCOELJŚOacute3ȜʄƟKEHampA31ampė˃ƟGʰƾ1įGŸɮKȿEampE0Gccedilǿ

ƛ˞-GʾEHG

x 1-8 tzSUacute-1JFQ5 LCOEoslash

12

18 rkzacuteRuumljfrac14divide-1

ECN3m1DF-0ȳ1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯƯ3 LCOEKLJŚG-GraquoɠǨɏ-eumlɥ-GȳaRZn3mg4EHFɚ1Ĵecirc3 LCOE KLJŚG31ƛ˞0THORNoumlŃǘ3řszlig0mgƉGƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ1GĴecirc3 LCOE ȣ4˖)E$3đɔbAˬ0sup23Ugrave 1-5 D7 1-6 1ĽġHG]bn˺3mg3KʆɫƧmZ-4ʡʭ93ʡD7ȷƂz3ƛ˞ƟKʇmiddotɱɥGamp

aRZn3ɯȐʿHKƺ0-G3ccedilǿ-ɥampm4aR

Zn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏ1ʑ)ampA3-GampmZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF1ēǧ0m

Āccedilǿ-4Aumlɥ0)ampHE3ʡʭʡ]bnKĠG-mZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF4

ʢ 3000kW10Gx 1-71HE3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1˟ʏA)amp LCOEyacuteYjKʆ

Ugrave 1-5 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+fOslashfrac12JFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn aRZn3ɛȯ 2007ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF

ʓŶƀ 2007ƀ 2010ƀƔĄ ɚŚH ɯƯ^Pc(MW) 20 23 50

Ͷļǘ 60 90 12 szligːǨ 3350 3800 3700 Ʒ(eurokW) 3315 1883 3230

ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 0 0 0 reg3]bn(euroMWh) 11 0 0 ʰƾijŚͿ

(euroMWh) 149 0 123

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 0 24 0

njʰƾʱͳ(euroMWh) 44 24 33

ˀɥƀǘ 15 25 20

x 1-6 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+faringmJFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 45 65 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 120 112 150 OumlotildeĜͿ 50 26 70 ǷotildeĜͿ 50 74 30 ǴƀͿ 15 13 12 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 255 250 298

WACCͿ 79 92 77

Ugrave 1-7 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+f LCOEthornFG

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

Prinses Amalia 166 (231) oPkˊcurrenɂ NA oPkˊcurrenɂ 156 (217) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 6 (8) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 88 (122) Prinses Amalia 5 (7)

13

19 T LCOEYacuteEgravesup2

LCOE4==0ɶɱuumlȗD7˸ʿ3amp1˩ʙHGˊźȤǕʘȪŚʿƷŞaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿʗě3ɚŚ3qcKɄamp LCOE KeumlɥGamp) LCOE 1AumlJHGưȰ4ȓ-40LCOEK3ʋƄ˳LJŚGG43ʋƄ3sup3Śƛ˞4AumlɥG˩ʙǞȰ1D)==-FH LCOE 3ʫȁ1˒ƐG3ampecirc3 LCOE ˩ʙǞȰK=-3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECNmD7ǞȰťȣsup21˷ǥG Aring5ș˩ɩ`pU-4Ʒ]bn3ɠķOacuteD7ʇmiddotɱotildeƊɞKɥotildeFƊampƀ]bn3ſ

Ĺ1ļ+ćʣĀampdeg˘OacuteKɥ LCOE K˟ʏAGľĜG3Ni-4OumlǷȣɞOumlǷ]bnǴȰlaquoʌ)ampǥʄ0ɅʄIgraveǼacute3sup3Ś0H0$3degJF3ćʣ

0ǞȰ-4otildeƊɞLOacute3gtKɥF$H1D)yacuteưȠ3ɚƙKszlig˘GIEA 3Projected Costs of Generation Electricityrdquo (IEA2010) D7IEA World Energy Outlook 2009rdquo (IEA 2009) 43NiKɥFsup23Ɖ1DF LCOEK˩ʙG

3Ni-4IEA 4otildeƊɞKʇmiddotɱɅ]bn13˘G3]bn4ʇmiddotszligiquestɚŚ

3ƴ˗1ƷG1ƺ]bnK˘ (IEA2010)3ʇmiddotɱ˟ĸEIEA4otildeƊɞ 5Έ10KɥF5KȣɱŘŚɱ0ɢĿ1GOumlyacuteŰ˖bZ3frac12ƷŞeumlɥ-Gɞ1310K˒ʪȽɱƴ˗ɱbZD7EgraveȉbZ1ɷGƷŞ3Ʒ]bn13G (IEA2010)DFćʣĀampș˩ɩ`pU1DFTHORNoumlvg3ǘKǰũ1˳ʧƄ1D)ěʍ3ɯĺ3 LCOE KşǦ1ȣG-G H41 ɯȐʿ4 ECNm3D0Ƅ0Xj`ymKAuml)ɚŚ3aRZn

ě3 LCOE0E71ȜģɠķEgraveOacuteatildeĔɲɞȽǴ)ampreg3yacuteƿȔK˰EgraveG3m1˜ǘ3ƯDzʿ3ǥʄ0˺3ntildeNjǼacuteʌ3Ɛ$3reg3ĔTHORNG4]bn3ƐKĠ

GľĜAGǨ143mKɥegrave3ɉķɱ0]bn3ȵHK˰EgraveampFparaȐ3ɚŚ3

aRZn93ƷKė˃1GeumlɲƖEHGD0SrYEgraveȉKȪŚampFG(Harper et al 2007)3˳ʧ0ǞȰKɥampľĜƷ]bnBƀʪ-0ǘŅ3˞į LCOE 1ƐG10GaRZnƈˬ3ǰʨɱ0ȪŚȖ4ƷŞ1GampͶoumlɯ3ʮʯɱ0ˬʹKė˃1G]bn3OacuteKɡ˥

G14ƷŞ3ˡɏKɡ˥G˞-G Aring3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECN m4ƾccedilƷŞ1ƯŚ3Ƿeumlɲɞ (ROE) KIgrave˯aR

ZnȢ1 LCOEK˰EgraveGamp3Ƅ0Xj`ym-GYacute1ampD1ECN3Xj`ymKE1˳ʧ0A31G-ǷD7OumleumlőKƾ˺ȒKǥʄ1˘-

G=ampͶoumlɯ3]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏE˘-aRZnKGamp

3ĔTHORN3ȵH-ɸȡ0H50E0Ͷoumlɯ]bnK˟ʏG-G

110 LCOEYacuteEgraveocircicedilplusmnecirc

Ugrave 1-8 4otildeƊɞ LCOE ǞȰKȣampA3-GXj`yccedilǿ3ćʣ0ǞȰƄ0ǞȰ3ǞKɥ3otildeƊɞ1 LCOE K˟ʏFreg3egrave3]bnvgKě3đɔb1ɔEŚampE1HEʿ3ǞȰ1D)đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿKɣ GotildeƊɞK˘G

t=1Tsum Ʒ t + ʰƾ t + ɗǛ t + Ɏʥ]bn t + ǑĐ t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

LCOE =

t=1Tsum ɯouml t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

Ϳ

14

ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3ˡɏELdeg˘ɱ0otildeƊɞ4Ȥ3aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿG4ƷŞ3ˡɏ1ʑ

)ampotildeƊɞ3OacuteDFfrac120GtimesğGIEA2010 1DH5ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3otildeƊɞfrac120)Gɡɦ4bZŪǘ3ȤƷŞ-40ǘŅ3IumllaquoƷŞ1ccedilǗHGampɷGbZ˺]bn

Ū00Gamp-G$H1sup1ʇmiddotɱˡɏE3 LCOE 3˟ʏFAȤƷŞ3˟ʏFDFAfrac120Gtimesğ1G

Ugrave 1-8 icedil LCOEsup2plusmnecirc

ǞȰͽˡɏ ˡɏ ˺]

bn3Ʋ ɥ m

otildeƊɞ3

ʜı

otildeƊɞ3ʜı

1G LCOE

đɔb3

LCOEKɣ GotildeƊɞ

ș`pU ˩ɩ3ćʣ˩ʙ

agraveɱʇmiddotɱ ƷŞ3ˡɏ

otildeƊɞ1 ĠG IEA2010 5Έ10

53Έ70MWh

IEA3ǞȰͿ

95 IEA3ǞȰͿ

ƄXj`

yccedilǿ

aRZn ɯbrvbarȐʿG

4ȤƷŞ ǥʄ1Śʻ ECN2008 75Έ15

(ROE) 64Έ76

MWh 10

ECN3ǞȰͿ

reg3szlig3Ńǘ1đɔb3ntildeNjǼacuteKɥ Ƿccedilǿ-ĽġHamp ROE3ʜı1ļ+

Ugrave 1-8 1ʆD1(E3Ni-ALotildeƊɞ3 LCOE Oacute1˒ƐG95otildeƊɞ4ʇmiddot3ˡɏK˘ʞɬ0˩ʙȰKɥđɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿK˩ʙG31ƛ˞0Oacute-Gƕ)Ƿʃʐ3đdivide˽ĴĽġampmg1ļ+0E3otildeƊɞ4ǰņOacute1+4-F

IEA-43ʜıK 5Έ10GH4ʞɬĀampʇmiddotɱ˩ɩǞȰKɥƄXj`yưȰ3ordmOacuteKǥE1ampA3-G 1frac12Ǟ3otildeƊɞNjȊHampŽ3ǰAfrac12OacuteͿˊƷŞ3bK˘amp1ɥEHGƕ)

LCOEK˩ʙG14=ampͶoumlɯ3 LCOEKreg3Ʌ3 LCOEȣG14aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏG4DFƁoumlʡʭ|3ˡɏ3(E1ʑ)GKǥʄ1GėȘ-G

otildeƊɞ3Ƹ4$3ˡɏ1ťƜGdz=LCOEK˘ěʍ3ƉKɥGľĜ4ʑˆGˡɏotildeƊɞ$3reg3vg3OacuteKǥʄ1˥Gƛ˞HG

111 Iumlatilde

IEAWind Task263ʫȁELCOEĴ1D)ņɮ0)GJG33ƄĜ4ɯoumlƷɥ˺)ampě]bn3Ɛ1DGA3HGcurrenƦFĴŞ3 LCOE3Ÿɮ1ǰAƐamp34Ƿɱ0ͶȯG4Ͷ3ƴ˗shyȓ1ļ+currenɂHGɯouml-G=amp

ǷɱǓaeligD7ͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ǽacuteņɮ0GEźľoumlAͶoumlɯ3]bnszligiquest

1˒ƐGE1ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾAěĴ-˒ɮ0FH LCOE 1ņ1Ɛamp 63ɂŚļɆ-SrY3]bnszligˊK˘ LCOE 3Ɵ4ĴBɶɱ˸ʿ$3reg3eumlɥʿ3

-ćʣ0ȣ-GD1ƝJHGLCOE3ěʍ3˩ʙ3ˡɏE3D10HampKȜʄ1ɡ˥Gƛ˞GLCOE4ɪaacute-Aordfnjė˃0˩ʙ-A0IɚŚ3qc1ɥHGDzɲ-Eacuteeuml0k-Gƕ)ȣD7$3ʫȁ3˥14ɫƧGdz=

rOtildemiddot

Cory and Schwabe 2010 ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financial Variablesrdquo httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2009) ldquoThe Economics of Wind Energy A Report by the European Wind

15

Energy Associationrdquo March 2009 Available at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentspublicationsreportsEconomics_of _Wind_Main_Report_FINAL-lrpdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2010) ldquoWind in Power 2009 European Statisticsrdquo The European Wind Energy Association February 2010 Accessed at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentsstatistics100401_General_Stats_20 09pdf

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review and Comparative Analysisrdquo Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 Accessed at httpeetdlblgoveaempreports63434pdf

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2006) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2006rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2006weo2006pdf

IEA (2008) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2008rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2008weo2008pdf

IEA (2009) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2009rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgWbookshopaddaspxid=388

IEA (2010) ldquoProjected Costs of Generating Electricityrdquo 2010 Edition Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgpublicationsfree_new_DescaspPUBS_ID=2207

RECaBs (2007) ldquoRECaBs Interactive Renewable Energy Calculatorrdquo Renewable Energy Calculator Accessed August 2010 at httpwwwrecabsorg

Wiser R Bolinger M (2010) ldquo2009 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy August 2010 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs2009_wind_technologies_market_reportpdf

16

Aring 2Auml NDQ+

21 NDQ+uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ȑ˞0E71]bn3ɚƙKG-

4 2008 ƀ3D7ȳͶoumlɯƴ˗1GĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1ɒɏKƎG

211 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

2008ƀǶ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ĝ˩ 3179MW 2756MWȳ 423MWͿ-H4 2007ƀǶ3ˬOtildeş1ťʢ 1252000ƀ3ˬOtildeşDFA 32ŀdivideG2001ƀE 2008ƀ=-1ŀdivideampˬOtildeş3ʢĄǘ4ȳͶoumlɯ1DGA3-G2008 ƀ1ȳ-ƈˬ3ȳQOoyM4 3F(64 2009ƀ1řƭA64 2010ƀʈ1ŐGcurrenŚ-GˮȲ 5 x 2-1 1ʆD1ŨTHORN3Ƅ4Ǵ15EņJG2001ƀE 2003ƀ1

ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 725MW ŀdivideamp2004 ƀE 2007 ƀ=-4 8MW ŀdivideamp10H4 2003 ƀ1śǟHampaRZn3ǕɱǓǎ˩ɩņŽ1ȿͳHampʫȁ-GHK˚amp1 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampǝamp0ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFͶ3ƈˬǝamp1ȲɶHG10)amp2008ƀ3 FITŨTHORNƔ2010ƀ 7DZǶ=-1Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 280MWŀdivideG (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ1D)mZ3ʱoumlȸ3ʢ 20AEligʬHG

x 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

ˮȲ 5 Roslashdsand IIȳͶoumlɯƯ4 2010ƀ 8DZ1ŐG

17

mZ4ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ƀșɶȔKŚ0EU 3˞Ȩ1DH5mZ4 2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯ-ʱSrYȸ3 30Kamp3˩ɩKʘŚ0H50E0EU-4szlig3divideɳĴ13aumlɣė˃SrY3ɶȔOacuteKƭGamp3˖uuml˩ɩ3AcircƭKʻyacutemacrFm

Z4 2010ƀ 6DZ1Ĵ3˖uuml˩ɩKɯ˘G3˩ɩ-42020ƀ=-1ˬOtildeşKʢ 4 GW$H1D)Ͷoumlɯ4 11000 GWh10GcurrenƦHG=ampʱş3 3ccedil3 1D7ouml3ʢ 50Kȳ1ˬʹGͶEƖGcurrenƦHG (Kemin 2010)(0gt12009ƀ3ɯouml4ʢ 6700 MWh-G2010 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3currenɂ4ěȚŵdivideɳĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010) ʁǴɶȔ2008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MW3divide0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ˬ

Otildeş 350 MW3ǝˬŚEHG3ɶȔOacute3Ąccedil4Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ1D)ƭA3-$H1D)ʦʏş4 175 MWŀdivideG10GĸǞ3˩ɩƎŬ42012ƀ=-1 350MW1divideş 150 MWKdivideGamp3˩ɩKˠŚ0H50E0 ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MWKdivideGʁǴɶȔ433ņˠȕ0ȳͶoumlɯƯ0J( Horns

Rev II209 MW2009ƀ 9DZŐͿRoslashdsand II207 MW2010ƀʈʓŶcurrenŚͿAnholt400 MW2012ƀ12DZʓŶcurrenŚͿ1DFƭHG˟gt-G

Ugrave 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

1761 2358 2464 2697 2708 2716 2720 2728 2717 2756 2985 2621

ȳ 11 50 50 210 423 423 423 423 423 423 856 1339

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 2-2 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

176 1 597 106 183 12 8 4 8 ndash11 39 ndash38 ndash135

ȳ 11 39 0 210 223 0 0 0 0 0 100 ndash14

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

212 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1iacuteŚHampaumlɣė˃SrYȰ1DFͶoumlɯaRZn3ǝamp0ĽiacuteƄŨTHORNHampǝamp03ͶoumlɯaRZnD7UoN13ȳaRZnĎȲ8-4HAszligːǨ

22000Ǩ1igraveG=-bjnźľEgraveȉ1divide 025mZZrkW0034kW ĎȲ9 0047okWͿ3ugraveƭNjAEligHGĎȲ10szligːǨ˫3Ǩ1igraveampƔ4źľEgraveȉKĖĕG10

G Ͷ1ť4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥƀǘ3Ǵ ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3˚ugraveƀ 0023mZ

ZrkW00037kW 0005okWͿ˚ugraveHG

ĎȲ8 UoNaRZn134ȳͶoumlɯƯ3THORNǸư4ecirc1ƈˬHGȳͶoumlɯƯ3aRZn

ŚʻHG13ȳͶoumlɯƯUoNɧ˻db1DFƈˬHG ĎȲ9 17353mZZr ĎȲ10 ɠ˖3Egraveȉ˚ugraveiacuteƄ4ͶoumlɯaRZn93ugraveƭK 1 kWampF 010mZZr0013Ϳamp

[1degJ)ŨTHORNHampA3-G

18

ˊɱ1mZ-4ͶszligːǨ- 22000Ǩ3ɯK˖147ƀE 10ƀGAring5 3 MWͶKˬʹGH5FIT4ș3D1ȪŚHGĎȲ11

3 MWͶszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 3000 kWh

3000 kWh times 22000 = 66 GWh FITʬ˺Ǚ˚ugrave43 MWͶ 66 GWhɯG=-3ǴǓƱJHG3Oacute4ș3D10G

(66 GWh times 025Zr) + (66 GWh times 0023Zr) = 18064200Zr

Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4ʽǹĀampͶKǑĐGǝˠ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1A

ɥHG3ͳ4ǑĐHampˬOtildeş3 2ETHKɣɤGamp3szligːǨ 12000Ǩ1ť 008mZZrkW001kW 00139okWͿ-GAring5 225 kW3ͶKTHORNǝˠ3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn1D)ǑĐGľĜˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugraveK˩ʙGsup23D10G

225 kW times 2ļszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 450 kWh

450 kWh times 12000 = 54 GW

ǑĐamp 225 kWͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4

54 GWh times 008Zr = 432000Zr 3˚ugraveɥHG34450 kWǵɄ3ͶKǑĐGľĜ1EHG3˚ugrave3ơƣKĖGamp

3ǝˠaRZn-ǑĐGͶ3ǘ1iacuteˬEHGJ-403˚ugraveɥHG34

450 kWǵɄ3ͶK˩ 175 MWKǑĐGľĜ1EHG szligːǨ1ļ+ FIT-4Ś3 kWh3ɯǨ-40ˊ1tzgɷƑņͶD

FAņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶ93ƷUacuteHGAring5 3 MW 3ɯȗ3szligːǨampFɯouml (kWh) 415 MWͶ3 2ETH-ƕ)ĖĕG˚ugrave3ͳAETH10G ș1ʆUgrave 2-3D7 2-44FITͶoumlaRZn1GͶ3Ƹ1ĒltƐKʆampA3-3

Aring4ś3aRZn1ļ+G

Ugrave 2-3 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITuh AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave[]psup312

ɯȗ3

ˠȕ

MWͿ

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ ouml

MWhͿ

Ͷ 1ļampF3aRZn]bn

(DKK)

oumlłͳ (DKK)

ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 223 098 30 90 90 7497 23430 5250 224 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 223 098 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 227 100

(Nielsen et al 2010)

ĎȲ11 3Aring4reg3Ĵ3ʒ14Ġ=H0ampmZZr-ĽġG ĎȲ12 ĝ

19

Ugrave 2-4 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITu AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave]

ɯȗ

^Pc(MW)

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ

ouml (MWh)

Ͷ 1ļampF3aR

Zn]bn

(DKK)

ouml łͳ(DKK)

˚ugrave

(DKK) ʱĔTHORN

(DKK) ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 1650 6610 298 100 30 90 90 7497 2343 5250 1650 6900 295 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 1650 8920 273 092 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 990 5220 281 094

(Nielsen et al 2010)

˫3AringEņĺ3gg1ƷGDFAņĺ3ɯȗ1ƷGǞszligːǨ1ļ+

FIT 3ơƣKĖBJGUgrave 2-3 1ʆHGD1ǰAʪȽucircɞ3ˍͶ4ņĺgKOtildeamp 18 MW3ȣɱũĺ3Ͷ-GH4szlig3Ͷ-Ś3ɯouml kWhKļ1ampľĜ3 FIT1AƎ4=GUgrave 2-4 EszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT E3divideɱĔTHORNƖEHB34gɷƑũtzfrac12 3 MW3ɯȗ-Fȣɱũĺ3ɯȗ4 3frac141ˑ(GJG

FIT3ļɆszligːǨKɥGjn4currenˠŚHampˬOtildeşKƭGamp1ˬʹHGͶ3ǘŪ00G-G=ampH1DFgɷƑtz3OacuteKGjnAŪ00G

HE 2 3ʹ˩ɩKʘŚaRZnKĸUcirc-ĖTHORNHAE1ĪͲ0GľĜGszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT 4mZ3ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ʁǴɱɶȔOacute)ampˬOtildeş1ļ+ǕʘɱɶȔOacuteƭHGD1Gamp3A3-G szligːǨK FIT 3ļɆG3mjn4˚ugrave1DFźľ3ȝgtɣ GampǰAʪȽɱucircɞ

3ˍͶƛAaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ1)ǰAͺoumlɱ0gw-400G-G

$3ampǰʨɱ14Ͷoumlɯreg3ɅDFA10F20mZ-43ƏƉ3 FIT AumlJHGampɯoumlKļɆampɶȔOacuteƭ1G]bn0Gʫȁ0G

22 NDQ+ 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-4mZ1G 2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKG-ɥampmg42008 ƀ1˩ɩG4śǟHampaRZn3ſĹOacute1ļ+A3-GͶ93Ʒ]bn4^Pn3Ǽacute1DFŚ-40mZ-4ɯ]bnȣɱŚGD-GˬOtildeş MWampF3Ʒ]bn14ǰņ- 503GeacuteƀƄ3ɯouml MWh ampFƷ]bn3Ńuumlɞ4 15ǵɄ-G

221 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para mZ3ͶoumlɯaRZ-n4ˊ1Ū0Ͷǘ3Έ12ļͿ3ͶʺKɥG˩ɩW

PoP-4Ū0A 3ļ3ͶKɷʳɛG4ʵB0ŔKNJD1=ʹGGH4ͶK 1 ļccedilǗɱ1ʹGˡˢɱĉƋ0GE-GmZ14ņˠȕQOoyM3AringGbPBʟĴņ0A3-40ǰņˠȕ3b4Ͷ 20ļKˬʹGʱş 63 MWͿ

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹŚȉş4 19 MW-F$3gɷƑ4 80 mtz4 72 m-G2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ-ǰAˊɱ034 23 MW3Ͷ-F$3tz4 80 mgɷƑ4 93 m-G

(b) BL0+Ouml mZ3Ͷğ4ˊ1˝ğ-GampͶ3^PnɡƦɱ034āȷȮų10G

20

ˊɱ1ͶɅ4ǾŪ00)GȮųĸŻ$3Ģ-4ƀſĹͶ 7 msKGH4 2 MWͶtz 80 mͿ1ļ1ťszligːǨʢ 2500Ǩ1ɸƎG(Danish Energy Agency 2010)2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3 2009ƀƄ3szligːǨ4ſĹ 2639Ǩ-)amp2009ƀ3mZ3ͶɅ4żƀ3 88-2008 ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3szligːǨ4szligˀɥƀǘſĹ-ʢ 3000 Ǩ10GcurrenƦHGɫƧszligːǨ3LJŚOacute4mZszligiquest3ͶɅl`1GA3-402008ƀ1ˬʹH2009ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+˩ʙampA3-G

(c) ccedil-1 2008ƀƄ3deg˘ɱ0aRZnƷ]bn141100kW1529okWͿE 1300kW1807

okWͿ=-F$3ſĹ4 1250 kW1738 okWͿ-GEgraveȉ4 2008 ƀ1xZ1ampƔ2009ƀ 2010ƀ1ņŽ1frac12GɚƙG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ1GͶ3ʰƾ4IgraveIcircɡ^wbŋʢĸdegĵĸʚɡ3 4 ɶ-ȒƭH

GHE3ɶ$HHͶoumlɯƯ3ɣȹʰƾ3ʢ 25KĈG2008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlɯaRZn1currenƦHGɣȹʰƾ412MWh17oMWhͿ-G (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m4ƀ|b3Ouml 80-K˺GaRZnKɥGmZ1GȤ

ƯDz3Ͷ4ˊ1ƎƅOgraveŋʢ1DFK˺Gegrave3ĔTHORNKƎƅOgraveŋʢ1Ʒ FͶ

3ƯDzʿ43ļKɷDžeumlɥG-0Ʒ1ťGeumlɊ93ǓaeligǓƱ4szligOumlȖʿ3Ƴ˴

ʻyacutemacrEHG mZ3ɡƦɱ0aRZn4100Ouml-K˺GaRZn-Gż3aRZ

n-4Ouml1DG˺3otildeĜʢ 800)GͶoumlɯaRZn1ťGOgraveTHORNĮĔǴĖTHORNHė˃034 15ƀsup2atilde-G

2008 ƀƄ3ƎƅOgraveŋʢ3eumlő4ʢ 5ͼ-H4 5 ƀijŚHGͶoumlɯaRZn4reg3ƷȗɱbrvbarȐȣȵuumlƟ˟0HGampˊ1eumlőfrac120)GͶoumlɯaRZ

n3bZ˞įKʚɡ-Gegrave0ưȠGEͶ93Ʒ4bZfrac12˟0HG mZ1GǝˠaRZn3ľĜʣɤɞ4ż 9Έ11-G3amp 5~73bZ

Nė˃10G3EA1983ƀE 2002ƀ=-3mZ˯icircȇƉĕƊƯ3 OMX203bZNſĹ 72)amp3ȣͶoumlɯaRZn3bZȣɱfrac12JGĎȲ13 (Saabye 2003)

(f) s_N3N9A Ͷ30ĔTHORNɅ4NordPool źľK 3oumlłFIT Ə-3Egraveȉ˚ugrave-Gʬ˺

ǙbrvbarȐʿ3Ͷ3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢK 5ƀ=-ƇG-GĎȲ14HE3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢ4 Nord Pool3Yacuteəźľ1Ɇ ʴʫHG

(g) Q54Q1 mg4 Economy of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ1

ļ+A3-G

222 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para 2008 ƀ1mZ-ŐampȳaRZn40HA˩ɩG4ƈˬȠ1GȳQ

OoyMɯ4ˊ1Ǖƃ3˴ėKƖEHG10G3˴ė4THORNǸʋKEHG

A3-szligːǨ 50000Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml kWhampF3THORNǸ1ťǰfrac12Egraveȉ3A31˴ė

ĎȲ13 Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark ĎȲ14 10ƀijŚEgraveȉKNjAEligGǝˠ3ɯAɰľG

21

aeligHG10GHornz Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand I amp II4THORNǸʋKʪśɠampaRZn-GAnholt3ǝȳQOoyM3THORNǸǴ4 2010ƀ 6DZ1ʨpoundG$3ˬOtildeş4 400 MW-2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-1KŐG10G UoN13ǞƉĎȲ15QOoyMA˴ėHGUoNǞƉQOoyM3ˬʹlaquo

ƖEHH5Ͷ1Aĝ PdlOz[ɥHG10Gɠķ=-1 2 3UoNǞƉ3QOoyMƈˬHG

(b) ccedil-1 mZ1GȳQOoyMɯbrvbarȐʿ3Ʒ]bn4˴ėiacute3THORNǸʋKʪampʢ 200 MW3

ņˠȕQOoyM1ťʢ 2700Έ3000kW3753Έ4170okWͿ-G ȳQOoyMKĴatilde3oumlʡʭȳŃĶˬOtilde1ʡGamp3]bn4mZ-4Ĵƺ

GampaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷʱͳŪ00)GɢĿƐ˰Egravebrvbarntilde3ȷƂĸ˰Egrave3]

bnAĴƺG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳQOoyM3ʰƾ4ʭ˩mgEHF=ampȳQOoyMɥʪǬʳ

ƞthornKƭGamp1ʄśƟmZ3ņˠȕȳQOoyM3ɣȹʰƾ4ĸ

Ļ3ɛȯ1DF 18MWh25oMWhͿE 20MWh28oMWhͿ=-G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mZ3ņˠȕQOoyM3˺4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ȪʙǴszligiquest1ɀ)˖JH

GsmOjZƷ˖E3OgraveTHORN˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM1eumlɥHGraquoH4

aRZn93˺Ə-˖JHGJ-40Ϳ˴ ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4ż 50ƍ3Ƿȣɞ-˺HG mZ3oumlmiddotʇ3Ƿ]bn4ʢ 112ͼ Ouml]bn4 4555˩ʙHG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) s_N3N9A ˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml3ijŚEgraveȉKĖĕ)

GijŚEgraveȉ4THORNǸdb-ȪŚHGTHORNǸEgraveȉ4˺ǙHampƿȔ-40szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ĔTHORN Nord PooloumlĕƊ-3ł-ƖEHampƔ1ȪŚHGHorns Rev II3ˑǸEgraveȉ4 0069kWh0096okWhͿRoslashdsand II4 0085kWh0118o kWhͿ-GźľEgraveȉ1ťGEgraveȉ˚ugrave4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿTHORNǸEgraveȉ1Ɯ NjAEligGźľEgraveȉTHORNǸEgraveȉDFľĜQOoyM

Eʡʭɥʿ1ŸͳKǓƱJ250E0 ˴ėiacute-0G4UoN13ǞƉ3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 22000 Ǩ1G

=- 0034kWh0047okWhͿD7Ͷeumlɥ-Greg3˚ugraveKĖĕG

(f) Q54Q1 Horns Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand II3ƈˬ]bnʱͳ1Gmg4eumlɥė˃0agraveɱƥĽmZ3ȳ

QOoyMɯ3ŦŞD7ȳQOoyMƯDzʿ0E71ȳQOoyM3˺

ʿ93ˁĕF˺ȆE1THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙEƖampA3-G

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacute3ȑ˞-G

ĎȲ15 UoN13aRZn4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3THORNǸʋKʪ1˖JHGȳƈˬaRZnŚ

ʻHG3 23QOoyM1divide13ȳɯƯUoNɧ˻db1D)ƈˬHG

22

Ugrave 2-5 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ16

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ17 ȳ

2008ƀĎȲ18 ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 23 23 23 Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 3 91 90 ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2700 4300 3865

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 25 25 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1250 2844 3000

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash (1738) (3953) (4170) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 12 (17) 20 (28) 18 (25) $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 3 (4) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆ Economics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010

Ugrave 2-6 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 50 55 45 Ƿeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 110 112 112 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 80 45 26 Ƿ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 20 66 74

WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 52 88 95 Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 13 10 13 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 25 25 25

FXn $US 139 139 139 FXn DKK ndashndashndash 7353 ndashndashndash 7353

ǛΆEconomics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aeligIacuteɥļ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ

Ugrave 2-7 NDQ+uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 447 (621) 28 (39) 447 (621) źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 37 (51) 70 (97) 85 (118) FITǕʘǴ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 22000 50000 50000 ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

LVRT ˮȲ 6ĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ǛΆNielsen et al 2010 Danish Energy Agency 2008 Danish Energy Agency 2009 ĎȲ16 2007ƀ14mZ-ǝamp1ƈˬHampͶ40)amp ĎȲ17 2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ȳ1Ͷ4ƈˬH0)ampȳQOoyM 3ƈˬG4˩ɩȠ1)amp

$3( 24Ǖƃ3˴ė˩ɩ1ļ+A3-ȟF64UoN13aRZn-)ampHorns Rev II3ǰʨɱ0Ʒ3ȪŚ4 2007ƀ10Hampamp3ǘŒ4 Horns Rev II3LJŚ]bn1ļ+GRoslashdsand II3ƷȪŚ4 2008ƀ10H$Hĝƀ3]bn3Ȉƻ0)G

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23

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24

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25

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26

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2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

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rOtildemiddot

Danish Wind Industry Association httpwindpowerorgenknowledgestatisticsthe_danish_markethtml September 2010 (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)

Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2007 2008 (Danish Energy Agency 2008) Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2008 2009 (Danish Energy Agency 2009)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Ministry of Climate and Energy National handlingsplan for vedvarende energi i Danmark 2010 (In English National Action

ĎȲ21 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampĔɲʱͳͶoumlɯǕʘͽPdlO

zD7yacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜAG

27

Plan for RE in Denmark) (Kemin 2010)

Nielsen et al Economy of Wind Turbines 2010 EUDP (Nielsen et al 2010) (Original title Vindmoslashllers Oslashkonomi)

Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark (Saabye 2003)

28

Aring 3Auml lt8

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ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

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29

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312 s_CcedilN3N9A

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30

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ʰƾ4 2007ƀ1 4571kW635okWͿ-2008ƀ4 4633kW644okWͿ-)amp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m1LǷɞ4 30Oumlɞ4 70)ampźɨǻ3đdivide4ƦŚ0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ

Oumleumlɲɞ4$HH 9555-)ampUacuteɱ0 FIT 1D)ʡʭ93NZdbIgrave˯HF=amp FITE3ŚͳǓƱAIgrave˯HGampĔTHORN3bZ˰Egravefrac120F$3ʫȁeumlAfrac120)G

31

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ĔTHORN4SrY3 FITD7GǛEƖEHG2007ƀ1ƈˬHampaRZn3ĽŌ4 819

MWh11384 oMWhͿ-ļǷǛ4 518 MWh72 oMWhͿ-GaRZn^Pn31ļ+3ĽŌiacuteƄ4 183ƀɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 mg4 EEG (2004) DEWI Magazine Nos 32 (2008) and 34 (2009) D7 Deutsche WindGuard GmbH ZSW3

amp1Acircƭamp EEG(2008)3Ɔț1GʉŕɱĽġǮEƖampȰlaquoʌ3Oacute4 Destatis (2009)1ļ+

322 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

sup23ƥĽ42008ƀsup21ƈˬHGcurrenŚ3ȳQOoyM1ļ+A3-G

(a) BL0+para ȳaRZn1DFȳ1ˬʹampͶ 12ļ3ˬOtildeşEʦ˩- 60 MWKɯ-GƦŚ

G3aRZn^Pn4 Borkum1G East FrisianŴ3ʢ 40 kmȫĜ3āȷ1frac14ʹȦȻʢ 30 m-G3ȷųE3ȦȻ3ʪȽɱEacuteɲKƖGamp14Śȉaeligoumlʢ 5 MW3ȳͶƛ˞10G3^Pn3szligːǨ4 3700Ǩ10GcurrenƦHG

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3ȳQOoyMKEHampľƯ1D7ȻȦĻ1ƈˬGamp3Ʒ]bn4ɪ

ſĹDFA3230kW 4490okWͿ3]bn3atildeˮ4ͶļʅŃƯzʗ-Gʡʭ93ʡ4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿ3micro-GampaRZn3Ʒ]bn14ʡʭ93

ʡ]bn4Ġ=H0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳͶoumlɯ3ʰƾ43ʰƾDFA˒0)GȷųEHG-

ǷĵEȳ3Ͷ=-3əlaquoħ3]bn0GE1ʰƾ14atildeD7ń3bgj

y3laquoacuteD7ƛ˞0ˡŤBIgraveʪȽʚɡBƴ˗ʚɡˌˋordf3ɴˡ)amp]bnĠ=HGoP

k3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ƀʰƾ4123kW171okWͿ10GcurrenƦHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȳ3aRZn3ƷŞ143ľĜDFAeumlɲɞƛ˞10Gȳ3Ƿeumlɲɞ12ͿA

Oumleumlɲɞ65ͿA3ľĜDFA0GOumlǷȣɞ7ť 3Ϳ4ƦŚHampaRZnȣŚ-Gś14aRZn3˺Ȓ1D)Ū)GAring5aRZnˇ

iquest-G4ub`n1DF˺G0Ϳė˃ƟAG

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ȳͶoumlɯ3ouml4EEG3 FIT1D)ƱƮHGƦŚampm1˧5EEG20041ļ+

otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 91 MWh127 oMWhļǷǛ4 619 MWh860 oMWhͿ-G3ampotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4ȷųE3aRZn^Pn30E71ȦȻ1ļ+ 145 ƀǓƱJHG10G

(f) Q54Q1 mg4 EEG(2004)D7 Deutsche WindGuard GmbH ZSW3amp1Acircƭamp EEG(2008) Ɔț1Gʉŕ

ɱĽġǮ1ļ+

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 3-354sup21G LCOEccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacuteK˘

32

Ugrave 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 2 2 NA 5 Ͷļǘ ļ 5 5 NA 12 ɯ szligːǨ 2260 2260 NA 3700

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA 20 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1259 (1750) 1373 (1908) NA 3230 (4490)

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 4571 (635) 4633 (644) NA 123 (171) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 149 (207) 152 (211) NA ndashndashndash $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

Ugrave 3-4 lt8uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 55 55 NA 65

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 95 95 NA 120 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 70 70 NA 70

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 30 30 NA 30 WACC ͼ 56 56 NA 68

Ǵ ƀ 13 13 NA 15 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 298 298 NA 298

FXn $US 139 139 NA 139

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard Destatis

Ugrave 3-5 lt8uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 79 (110) 78 (108) NA 84 (117) FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA 20

ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ

ƀ NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 16 16 NA 16 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

323 lt8oumlRBL0+yuml2008ĀrmicroQ1-1plusmnecirc

x 3-2EoPk3 LCOE85MWh 118oMWhͿǷĽġǮ-Yacute1ampđɔbDFA˒ccedilG$3ɡɦKsup21IJʆG

33

x 3-2 lt8uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup323

324 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) BL0+dj LCOE 3KAampEG34aRZn3śʷ-GʾEHGđɔb3ş

4ƀszligːǨ 2630ǨoPk3ļǷaRZn3szligːǨ4ƀ 2260Ǩ$HDFA4G1frac12

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4 1373 kW1908o kWͿ-đɔbDFA 76

kW106okWͿfrac12)ampLCOE1˧5H4ʢ 3MWh4oMWhͿȿ1ɸƎG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAʢ 7MWh10oMWhͿH

4ŚǴɏȏ3śǟQOoyMũˠȕ01DGcurrenOtildeĦ3Igraveʚ]bn3Ǥ)ampɡɦ1DG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 oPk3aRZnđɔb3Ÿɮ4ʢ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-H4˺Ȓ

31įG

(e) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4ƦŚ0

325 s_F(=2E

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯ14EEG1ļ+ FITɥHGoPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn EEG2004G4 EEG20093-ƲJHGF$Hsup2ń3ĔTHORN4˟=H0E1oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎGamp3reg3PdlOzKŨTHORNG4ƧIJHE$3currenƦA0

ĎȲ23 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4ĭǂcopyTHORN3ampđɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3

Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

34

x 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup324

326 aringmH7B

x 3-31ʆampD15MWh7oMWhͿ3yacuteYjɣ FH4szligːǨʰƾ3Ÿɮ1DGA3-G

33

-LoPk3QOoyM3Aring4Śȉaeligouml 2MW3Ͷ 5ļ-ȒƭHGaRZn3szligːǨ42260ǨƦŚG3m3ƦŚ1ļ+LCOE485MWh118oMWhͿLJŚHampNjAEligHamp FIT1DFaRZnɯǨȐʿ3yacuteYjampFʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ10GǛ3Oacute4 EEG-ˠŚHG

Ugrave 3-6 lt8Iumlsectpsup325

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

85 (118) NA 135

(188) ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

79 (110) NA 84

(117)

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

5 (7) NA 46

(64)

rOtildemiddot

BMU Leitszenarion 2009 ndash Bundesministerium fuumlr Umwelt Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit Langfristszenarien und Strategien fuumlr den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland ndash Leitszenario 2009 (2009)

Destatis Statistisches Bundesamt wwwdestatisde (last access December 2009) ĎȲ24 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAG ĎȲ25 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

35

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 32 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122007 (2008)

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 34 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122008 (2009)

Deutsche WindGuard Deutsche WindGuard GmbH on behalf o Zentrum fuumlr Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Wuumlrttemberg (ZSW) Vorbereitung und Begleitung bei der Erstellung eines Erfahrungsberichtes gemaumlszlig sect 20 EEG (2008)

EEG 2004 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich (2004)

EEG 2009 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich und zur Aumlnderung damit zusammenhaumlngender Vorschriften (2008)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

36

Aring 4Auml JN6

41 JN6uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

411 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬʹş42000ƀ3 447 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 2121 MW1ŀdivide3( 228 MWȳͶoumlɯ3ş0)GͶoumlɯ1DGƀ3ɯouml42000ƀ3 08 TWhE 2008ƀ3 43 TWh1ŀdivideGǞ2008ƀ3Uh3ʱȸouml4 119 TWh-)ampͶoumlɯ3ʁǴɶȔ42008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 2000 MWdivideG-G3ɶȔ3ƭ1DFˬʹȽgtG4ƈˬ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʱş4ʢ 4000 MW10G2009ƀ14950 MW3ȳͶoumlɯ3THORNǸŐHGȳͶoumlɯ3ɶȔOacute42020 ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 6000 MW 1G-Graquo EU 3aumlɣė˃SrYƿplusmn3ʻyacuteKɄGamp34 2020ƀ=-3ɶȔOacute45178 MW-G x 4-1 D7Ugrave 4-1 4-2 4D7ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71ěƀƄ3

ʁǴɱD7ǴɱɶȔOacute3currenɂ-Gszlig3şmg4ěƀǶ3mg-Gɏ1ɫƧ-GU

h4ǠœͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ14ɶȔOacuteKŚ0

x 4-1 JN6uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 and Rijksoverheid 2010

2000ƀ3ƀŨTHORNş4ĝƀǶ3ʦʏˬOtildeşĝ ş1ˬŚHampUgrave 4-21ʆȜģƀŨTHORNş4

ǑĐampͶoumlɯaRZn3ȜģˬOtildeşKĠL-GUgrave 4-2 1ʆamp2009 ƀE 2012 ƀ=- 2012ƀE 2020ƀ=-3ěǴ3ȜģƀŨTHORNş4ě3Ǵ3ſĹƀŨTHORNşKʆGsup23˘1ʆˬOtildeş4UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ1ļ+ˬOtildeş3currenɂ-GRijksoverheid 2010Ϳ

37

Ugrave 4-1 JN6IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0447 0485 0672 0905 1075 1224 1453 1641 1921 2727 6000

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0108 0228 0228 5178

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 andRijksoverheid 2010

Ugrave 4-2 JN6regwoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0038 0038 0187 0233 0170 0149 0229 0188 0280 0202 0409

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0 0 0 0619

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010Rijksoverheid 2010

412 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1ǝamp0 FIT ĽŌ˩ɩ-G SDE ˮȲ 7ŨTHORNHamp3 SDE bX3-Ͷoumlɯ3ś3ɯ]bn1˟ĜotildeŀĕEgraveȉoumlčEgraveȉ1divideǓƱJHGE1aumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗93Ʒ

1fynʌiacuteUacuteLjʹKɥGjnSDEotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3Ȃʩgtatilde-ȏ˪HG

42 JN6VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-Uh3deg˘ɱ0D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZnK˷ǥG

421 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh4 2003ƀ1szligːǨ|b-ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎG FITiacuteƄKŨTHORNamp2006ƀ=-4

szligːǨ 18000 Ǩ=-3aRZn1ťǰ- 10 ƀ FIT NjAEligHamp2008 ƀE3 FIT 1DGǓǎ4szligːǨ 2200 Ǩsup23aRZn1ť˖JHG10)ampſĹszligːǨ4ƀʢ2000Ǩ-$3ˊɱ0ʜı4ƀ 16002800Ǩ-G Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4FITǓǎ3˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZnKʆGĎȲ263

aRZn-4$3Pq`NlOz3ņĄǕɱ1ś˖ė˃0]bn3|KˬŚGdeg˘ɱ0

34 15 MW3ũˠȕQOoyM-ͶoumlɯaRZn3ņĄ 23 MW3ͶgɷƑ 90 mtz 60Έ80 mͿKAuml)G3ĸĻ-4iacuteˬEHFHE3ĸĻ-4tz 4060 m3 450800 kWͶˊɱ-G

(b) ccedil-1 aRZn3deg˘ɱ0Ʒ]bn4 1000kW1390okWͿE 1600kW2224okWͿ

=-Fˊ1Ʒ]bnszligːǨAŅ0)G

ˮȲ 7 SDE (stimulering duurzame energie) UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrYD7ɖAtildeʬ1GǓǎbX ĎȲ26 đɔaRZn134Ƿccedilǿ-ɥampđɔb13KƿA3-401ȲƧ

38

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3atildeˮ4ɯouml1D)ŃuumlGA3 9Έ12 kWh13Έ17 okWhͿż4ɥ

ŐE 5ƀ3^wbŋʢ1DGͿˬOtildeş1D)ŃuumlGA3 25kW35okWͿĸdegʡʭʡ]bnKĠͿ-GƔʿ3Oacute4aRZn1D)˒ɮ0Gś3ʰƾ4ƀ 23otildeĜ-ŀdivideGƦŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷKēǧampƀ|b3Ouml 80-˺GaR

ZnKɥG˚ugrave3NjAEligʿ-GͿǕƃ4ˇŹǷɞ 15D7Oumlɞ 6ͼKȜƦŚGoumlmiddotʇ4ub`n1ļ+˺K˖)GȰlaquoʌ4 255ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A 0ĔTHORNɅ4Yacuteəźľ-3Ǵŋʢ1DGoumlł-FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ1D)yacuteYj

K)Gyumlƽɱ0dividePdlOzfynSrYƷotildeƊ1D)NjAEligHG

3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4˹ʌė˃0ĔTHORNɅKƾamp0ɯbrvbarȐʿKĠ==0brvbarȐiquest1ɥHF1

43iacuteƄ1DFƯƖʌ 421ťeumlɲKƖGɯbrvbarȐʿAG

(f) Q54Q1 -ɥampmg4Uh3 FIT otildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3˩ʙ-ɥampđɔaRZn3agrave˘mg-

G (Lensink et al 2009 Cleijne et al 2010)

422 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh3ȳͶoumlaRZn-4ƈˬ˴ėKƖǰņ 50 m2ˠȕ3QOoyMKƈˬG-

Gƕ)deg˘ɱ0ȳaRZn3ˬOtildeş4 100Έ300 MW-Fʡʭ1NjAEligHGȜģɯouml4szligːǨ 3300Έ4000ǨɸƎ-G2008ƀ1 Prinses AmaliaQOoyMřƭamp1ʆmg14$3]bnȒ4ƛAĠ=H0

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4 2500Έ3500kW3475Έ4865okWͿ-G2008ƀ1řƭampaRZn4$

3ǘƀntilde1Famp˴ė3iacuteǼacute3ampȣɱũĺ3 V90ĺ 2 MWͶKɥG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ɥbrvbarȐʿ3ɥśʷ3Ū01DFʰƾ14ņ0ʄśƟœķGƀʰƾ4 90

kW125okWͿLJŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZn|b3˺ȒKɥF$3Ouml3otildeĜ4 50-GPrinces

AmaliaQOoyM3˺4aRZnȢ1˖)GWACC3ƦŚOacute4ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3Ƿ]bn3ordmOacute-H4 NuonShellƯDzG OWEZecirc3Ǡœ3ȳQOoyM1ɥEHampOacute-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A Ǡœ3QOoyM4Ǣ MEP˩ɩ1ļ+˚ugraveKĖF97MWh135oMWhͿ3ijŚ

FITĽŌKƖampfynPdlOz3˚ugraveɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 3mg4Ľɯ˘$3reg3agraveɱ1eumlɥ-GƥĽ1ļ+A3-ƥĽ1ŸɮGľĜ4ʆHamp

ƥĽ1ļ+m[-˚)G

39

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘1ěƀ1ƦŚampD7ȳͶoumlɯ3OacuteKʆ2007ƀ3aRZn]bn4 2008ƀǨ

ɏ3n1G-ʆGUgrave 4-5 3ouml3źľEgraveȉ14ĕƊ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnǴŋʢ3otildeƊɞĠ=HG

Ugrave 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 1 15 120 NA Ͷļǘ ļ 1 5 60 NA ɯ szligːǨ 2000 2200 3350 NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 15 NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1120 (1557) 1325 (1842) 3315 (4608) NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 40 (56) 24 (33) 92 (128) NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) NA NA NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

Ugrave 4-4 JN6uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 5 5 5 NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 15 15 12 NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 50 NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 50 NA WACC ͼ 60 60 79 NA

Ǵ ƀ 10 15 10 NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 255 255 255 NA

FXn $US 139 139 139 NA

Ugrave 4-5 JN6uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (81) 56 (78) 59 (82) NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 663 (922) 28 (39) 97 (135) NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ 37 20 44 NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

43 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ƛ˞0˴ėKƖG3ampogP0)

G

40

431 JN6uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 4-2 JN6rmicroQ1plusmnecircxpsup327

(b) BL0+dj Uh3Ͷ3ːɞ4ʢ 25-FszligːǨ 2200 ǨͿđɔb3 30DFAfrac12FIT 1DG

˚ugrave4szligːǨ 2200 ǨKGG4 SDE ˠiacute3˳ʧKʾƬ$HDFAfrac12ˬŚHGͿamp2200ǨDFAŅɯGamp3PdlOz4ŚHGE1˞0˞į4B4FͶȯ-G

432 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4Đ3ĪͲ1EcircGė˃ƟGszligːǨ 2200Ǩsup2KɯGPdl

Oz4ŚHGͶ3ˬ˩$HHBBɮ0)Fƕ)EgraveȉŘ0Gė˃Ɵ4ǃ-0

Aring5ĝ ɯȗKAuml)AgzoũľĜƷ]bnfrac12szligːǨŀdivideG

(b) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ0)Gį4ĸdeg3-Fƀʢ 10kW15okWͿ-G

(c) ccedilntildeacirciacute-113T-1 đɔbȣGUh3Ͷoumlɯ4Ȱlaquoʌȣɱfrac12 (255ͼ) eumlɏAGǑĐ]bn

4ʾƬ0

433 s_F(=2E

Uh3ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ43ʍ͵3PdlOziacuteƄ3ơƣKĖG-G$30A34 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ-2007 ƀ=-1HK˞ȨampaRZn1ťMEP ˮȲ 81DF 10 ƀijŚotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligH2008 ƀsup21HK˞ȨampaRZn3ľĜ4SDE 1DF 15 ƀŃuumlotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligHG3 FITiacuteƄ1divideaRZn3ľĜ4ǰņƷ]bn 600kW834okWͿ1ťƷ]bn3 443ʌdž3Ʒ˚ugrave (EIA) D7otildeƊɞ 13fynKeumlɥG

ĎȲ27 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ ˮȲ 8 MEP (Milieukwaliteit Elektriciteitsproductie) Uh3oumlɣɤ1GȰƓ

41

-G

x 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup328

434 aringmH7B

Uh3yacuteYj42007 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn1˧5Ugrave 4-6 đɔͿʢ ndash36 MWhndash50oMWhͿPpb3Oacute10)GH4Đ3MEP3 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3ˬ˩3Ș1DGA3-˚ugraveͳ3ļɵ0)ampoumlEgraveȉK 2Έ3 MWh3Έ4 oMWhͿfrac12ƦŚamp1DGoumlEgraveȉ 6~8 MWh 1ǤG1HŪ0AoumlEgraveȉ4ͶoumlaRZn4ż1ͺoumlɱ0A310)ampƔʮiacuteƄ-G SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ1ļ+ 2008 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn143ȘĕFHyacuteYj4 ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿBBPpb3Oacute10)GěʍaRZn3ɯ]bn3Ž4ndash3 DFA4G1ņɏ1ȲƧG3ampndash3MWh4oMWhͿPpb3Oacute4eKņĮGA3-40 ȳͶoumlɯ3b3yacuteY4Ɗʯ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-)ampH4ɷDžƖampyacuteƥ

Ľ1ļ+A3-40Princes AmaliaQOoyM3Ȫʙ1İɣ amp4ǥE-G

44

Uh4ŧǽ1A 2020ƀ1AD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Dzdz0ɶȔOacuteKŚGɠķ3 SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ4HKśɠGamp3ǰA˞0k-G43 Eacute3ccedilǿʫȁEUh3brvbarAring1GyacuteYj4ʹ˒-40JG ugraveKƖampɯouml4szligːǨ 2200Ǩ=-1iacuteHG3ǘOacute4Uh3Ͷȯ1ċampA3-G2200Ǩsup23ɯ1ťGPdlOz4ŚHFHAƷ]bnfrac123į-Gė˃ƟGʰƾ4ĸdeg3ampȣɱ

0)G

ĎȲ28 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

42

Ugrave 4-6 JN6Iumlsectpsup329

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

91 (126)

94 (131)

166 (231) NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

127 (177)

96 (133)

161 (224) NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash36 (-50)

ndash3 (-4)

5 (7) NA

rOtildemiddot

Cleijne JW SM Lensink and CJ Faasen (2010) SDE Wind op land met vollasturen en differentiatie [SDE wind onshore with full load hours and differentation] ECN-E--10-001 Petten January 2010

Lensink SM JW Cleijne M Mozaffarian AE Pfeiffer S L Luxembourg and GJ Stienstra (2009) Eindadvies basisbedragen 2010 [Final advice SDE premium base rates 2010] ECNKEMA ECN-E--09-058 Petten November 2009

Rijksoverheid (2010) Nationaal actieplan voor energie uit hernieuwbare bronnen Richtlijn 200928EG [National Renewable Energy Action Plan Directive 200928EG] Den Haag June 2010

Statistics Netherlands (2010) online databank httpstatlinecbsnl VoorburgHeerlen August 2010

ĎȲ29 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

43

Aring 5Auml 1CN

51 1CNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bP3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯŮ1G=ampɚŚ3 EU 3ɶȔ1ļ+ CO2ǃaeligethȿ3amp

1 2020 ƀ 2030 ƀ1ƦŚHGɶȔOacuteKʆE1ˠiacute3ȂʩgtK˷ǥGraquo$30Ȓƭ˞ʥK˟ɷordfȾoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3]bn3ƐKŪ0Gamp1ɠķ˖JHGͿ E1 2008ƀ1GbPźľ3deg˘ɱ0QOoyM3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) K˷ǥ$3sup3

ŚKregĴ1GͶoumlɯ3]bnȣG

511 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac12frac34laquo

2009ƀǶǨɏ-Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4 19149 MW1bP3oumlʡʭ1 3ɭɶ1ņ0Ʌ0)GbP3Ͷoumlɯɯ4 90ƀdegĄ51Ő=F2001ƀsup24ǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşƀſĹ-ʢ 1800MWdivideHampˠiacuteǔȜHamp 2004ƀ 2007ƀ14Ĵɟplusmn 4362004D7 6612006Ϳ3şņŽ1ŀdivideamp3ˠiacute3ǔȜ1DF$HKeumlɥampǝˠaRZn3ʑ(EumlHamp

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯouml42009ƀ3bP3SrYʱ˞3ʢ 14KĈG x 5-14ŅĴȣ3ťƀ-G 2008ƀ=-1bP1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3H=-3ʦʏˬOtildeş

ƀŨTHORNşKʆG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3mg4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3SrY˖uuml˩ɩNREAPͿ1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)2020ƀ3currenɂ4SrY˞3 20Kaumlɣė˃SrY- EU3ɶȔƭ1ğampǘOacute-G

x 5-1 1CNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

x 5-1 4bP-H=-1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşD7notƔˬʹHG˟=HGˬOtildeşKʆG=ampƀŨTHORNşKx 5-21ʆ2009ƀbPǕƃ4 2010ƀE 2012ƀ=-3ěƀ1ˬʹG MWşKiacuteGamp3otildeƎKŚG1amp=ampoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3ƐKȿ Gamp3˩ɩKnotƔ3Ȱplusmn1ʩgtL-ɯ˘ampszlig3aumlɣė˃SrY]aRr`3

Ĝ˩ş 6000 MW4ʱoumlĕƊ3 25KĈH4ʪȽĊȗ-4ɚ1]bn-GͿ

44

bP1GȳͶoumlɯ30Ł4ņȍ0-F3ampȮų3ȦȻ 50m 10)Gƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ-4ͳ0ļʅ˞0F$3ampHE3aRZn3ś˖ė˃Ɵ4iacute

HGE1aacuteʡɏ-4ȺĀŇɓWbļĸ1ˬʹHG]uPo^PZWbgw3

ɯ1DG~nrjZœķGampNZdbşEHampA310)G

Ugrave 5-1 1CNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

16 22 34 49 62 85 100 116 151 167 23 35

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 5-2 1CNoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

16 06 12 15 13 23 15 16 35 16 15 14

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

512 s_CcedilN3N9A

Ȱɱ1currenƦHGEacuteɲKĖGamp14ͶoumlɯaRZnKɚecirc3iacuteƄ131ccedil͵Gƛ˞G

ʟĴ3ȉ˴ŚiacuteƄĝȓͿH4ͶoumlɯaRZnʡʭ1UacuteYacuteDžʯ-GũłbrvbarȐʿAacuteocircouml

KĕE250E0Ϳamp=ampEgraveȉˠiacuteHGamp-GĴɟƿplusmn 6612007-˘ǥHampD1Ͷoumlɯ3ǓƱbX14ˠiacuteǛbXźľĎɡ3 2G

ˠiacuteǛbX4QOoyMƯDzʿƸampǴ1GͶoumlɯ3ʻyacuteɱ0ijŚĕƊ

Egraveȉ-Gx 5-23ǘOacuteͿ ǰʨɱ0Egraveȉ 1Ǩ3ɪEgraveȉoumlPdlOz1ļ+oumlčźľEgraveȉ3ʩgtĜJ-Ȫ=GI3źľĎɡ4ĽŌ13AĤ5HGƕ)ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿĖĕGǛ4

Egraveȉ1ŷęHG10F3Egraveȉż1frac12ľĜ4ǰfrac12Egraveȉsup2-H5ˬ

EHGx 5-34ˠiacuteǛ3đɔOacuteKʆG

x 5-2 Ucircgntilde1)QEAcirc ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

45

ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ4ntildeǡźľ3ɯ˩ɩKNjaeligcurrenɂKɥ3˩ɩś3ɯouml3currenɂ˶ŸKȿE

D1GE1==0ĸĻ1ƈˬHampQOoyMɸuml1˚Ugrave-˶ŸKŪ0Gamp

1==0aRZn[ĀHG3`bl1DFN``bl3ȴɥ

ʬ˺ǙKǰĀG-$3]bn34ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿǓƱ)G2008 ƀ4ʢ 15 MWh205oMWhͿ-)amp ˫3Oacute4Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120071D)ȸʿEgraveȉƿǘ (CPI) 1ļ+ǭǝH2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝ

ɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp x 5-34Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073ǟ˖sup2Ɣ3 FITǛiacuteƄ3ŃuumlKʆampA3-G2007ƀĴɟƿplusmn 6612007

1DF CPI1Ȯ) FITǔ˨HG10F2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp2010ƀ14ǭǝHampOacutePpb10FntildeƀKĮ)ampH4 CPIe1)ampamp-G bP3ʡʭɥʿ-G Red Electrica de Espantildea (REE) 1DH5ˬ Otildeş3 94ijŚEgraveȉĕU`

1D)ɥHGampčoumlźľEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ƐH0x 5-4Ϳ

x 5-3 ~BINcentIcircceyuml~[umlāntildeĀ ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

x 5-4 dividejo~uumljfrac14divideethyuml2008Ā ǛΆ Spanish TSO (REE)

Ͷoumlɯ3ņccedil4čźľ-ɷDžłHGampĽ4Egraveȉ1ņŷęHŇɓWbEgraveȉȦouml

ɯ3ɛȯ0E71Ĵźľ1G CO2 Egraveȉ3Egraveȉ1ƐG3amp 2008 ƀ14ſǡEgraveȉ4 6443MWh8956oMWhͿ0F2007ƀ3 3935MWh5470oMWhͿK 64Į)ampH4ɠķ=-1˫HampEgraveȉ-ǰAͳ-G Ͷoumlɯ3źľĕƊEgraveȉKx 5-31oumlčEgraveȉKx 5-51ʆYacute1ampD1Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073brvbar

Aring-43Egraveȉ4E=-3ʜıatilde1GſǡoumlčEgraveȉ1ļ+EgraveȉĽŌ3Ĝ˩Oacute-G

46

x 5-5 dividejBQK[umllcedilyuml2003Ą2009Ā ǛΆOMEL and Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

52 1CN 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-2008 ƀ1GbP3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKHKreg3đdivideĴ1GͶoumlɯɯ3ěʍmȣG

521 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

ɚecirciquestiacute13`blKeumlɥGamp14bP3QOoyM3ˠȕ 50 MWK40E0ˬ ʹampQOoyM3ſĹˠȕ4ʢ 25 MW-˩ ʙQOoyM3ˬOtildeşK 2007ƀA 2008ƀA 30MWsup3ŚG Ğɶ3ɥǨ4Śȉaeligouml-ƀ 1700ǨE 2350Ǩ=-==-G2008ƀ3szligĴſĹ4 2085

ǨͿ=ampaRZn3đɔOacute4 2007ƀ- 2200Ǩ2008ƀ- 2150Ǩ-)amp bP-ɥEHGszlig3ʪȽm-4aRZn3ɥǴ4 20ƀGraquoH4Q

OoyM3śʷ4E0Ϳ2007ƀ 2008ƀ14aRZn3Py^PZK 20ƀG

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹˠȕ4 1985 kW-2007ƀ3 1621 kWEJ1ŀdivideamp3m-ȏ˪G34 2000 kW3Ͷ0J(3QOoyM-4 2 MW3Ͷ 15ļͿ-G

x 5-6 2008THORNOacuteuumlegrave2bszlig ǛΆ Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

47

(b) ccedil-1 ƀ3Ʒʱͳ0)amp34Zb III D7 IV ˮȲ 93ņĺͶoumlɯ˙ʹˬʹHampE-

FƎeacuteEĶʡʭ93ʡBěʍʌcurrenɂHampJ-40 $H1AJEƀ4ĎǺǛ]bn3frac121DFͶ3]bnȿŪG=ampǕĊȗˠiacute3

Ńǭ1DFͶ3˞Afrac12ampQOoyM93Ʒʱͳ1ĈGͶ3]bn4ʢ 70Έ73ͼ-G3]bn4ĎǺǛ3Egraveȉɠķ3[jo]o1Ɇ ampƛ˞0ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵ1šDž1EcircG

2007ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn14Ʒ]bn4 1233kW1714okWͿ2008ƀ14 1250kW1738okWͿLJŚHG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾAaeligoumlƶiacuteȒatildeoumlȸ3amp3oumlǛˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵŀamp1DFŀdivide

Gʰƾ4 2007ƀ 1910MWh2655oMWhͿ2008ƀ 1963MWh2729oMWhͿLJŚHG100ͼŃuumlͿHE3]bn4|3ŃuumlƟdegǯĦ3eumlɥė˃Ɵƛ˞HGɕʶƴ˗ʿBȗȋ˙ʹ)amp˞į1G Ͷoumlɯȗ3^Pc4ƼņGͶȯ3ǰAD^Pn4-1eumlɥHGampŚȉǨ4ȿŪ

G10G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȞĘɱ1bP-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯKbPĴatilde3˖3oumlD7ŘŚampȰɱȂ

ʩgt1ļ+aRZn3yacuteiquestiacute1D)˺amp$H1AJEȵuumlƟKȘamp˺iacute

Ƅ3amp13 2ƀ-ɛȯŃĀAgraveE3ƺIgrave1DGIgrave˯ƛ˞10)G ˺]bn42007ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ1ˬŚHG2007ƀ2008

ƀAǷOuml3ȣɞ4 2ť 8-G2008ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A źľ93ł1DGĔTHORN42007ƀ1 394MWh548oMWhͿ2008ƀ1 644oMWh895o

MWhͿ-)amp3ĔTHORN1ť2007ƀ1 348MWh483oMWhͿ2008ƀ14 215MWh299oMWhͿ˰EgraveHamp FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideHGFITǕʘǴ4(E3bA 20ƀ1ijŚHG

(f) Q54Q1 1ʆampmg4bPͶoumlɯąmiddot (AEE) D7 Intermoney śǟampʃʐ1ļ+A3-G

522 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

bP3ȳͶoumlɯSN4 62SN1ccedilotildeHHE3SN-4ͶoumlɯˠiacuteHGHE3SN1ťTHORNǸ˖JHG10G3śɱPq`NizK5currenɂHGQOo

yM3ˠȕ4ʢ 1000 MW-G

(b) ccedil-1 mg0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig mg0

ˮȲ 9 Zb III4sectʬ˵Ũɯȗ (DFIG) D7ccedilŚȉ3]ugKɥampͶZb IV4ĝǴɯȗD7y

Śȉ]ugE0GͶccedil͵HG3ccedil͵ǞȰ3˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

48

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mg0

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A mg0

(f) Q54Q1 mg0

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 5-25-54sup23 LCOEccedilǿ-ɥampm[3ntildeNjǼacuteKʆA3-G]bn3sup3Ś4szlig 2007

ƀ 2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZnK˘A3-2008ƀnǨ3-˘ʆG

Ugrave 5-3 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 30 30 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ 15 15 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ 2200 2150 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1233 (1714) 1250 (1738) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 191 (266) 196 (272) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA

Ugrave 5Ă4 1CNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 9 10 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 6 7 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 NA NA Ǵ ƀ 15 15 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 30 30 NA NA

FXn $ 139 139 NA NA

Ugrave 5-5 1CNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 53 (74) 54 (75) NA NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 34 (47) 35 (49) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ

ͼ 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 20 20 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 36 (51) 37 (52) NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

49

523 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 5-7 1CNrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup330

(b) BL0+dj bP3ͶoumlɯaRZn4đɔbDFAˬOtildeeumlɥɞfrac12ͶȯbP3szligːǨ1Ɛ

GampbP3 LCOE4đɔb3 LCOEDFA 18MWh25oMWhͿ0)Gđɔb3ſĹːǨLJŚ 2680Ǩ-G31ťbP4 2150Ǩ0)G szligːǨ4bP3 LCOE đɔb3 LCOE 3Ÿɮ13ǰA˞0Ńǘ-GͶȯ1divide

ʰƾAđɔbKĮ)FH14ĸdegD7ĸĻBˇȬiquest˞ȨGeumlɲɞAĠ=HG LCOE33˷ǥ0Gʖ 33˞į4˺]bn-F3ͳ4aRZn3WACCD7ǰʨɱ

1ě3Ʒ1˞ȨHGƷĔɲɞ (ROI) KŀdivideG

(c) ccedil-1 bP3Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4ʢ 1250kW1738okWͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 200

kW278 okWͿŘbP-4Ʒ]bnfrac12ampLCOE 4 10 MWh14 oMWhͿfrac120G ǑĐ]bn4QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘʨpoundamp3ɯˬOtilde3˥iquest]bnKĠampͳ-ʱƷ]

bn3ʢ 3ͼKĈG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bP3brvbarAring1Gyacuteɛȯ1ˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlɲɞ4đɔbDFA0)G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig bP-4ʰƾđɔbDFA0)GbP3ʰƾʱͳ14ʌĸdeg

ʚɡ]bnKĠamp3ŃuumlĠ=HGnotƔ3ʪethȿoumlˇŞȸǛ3ǤˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ

˜Ɵ3=F1DFʰƾAŀdivideG˟gt-G ſĹbP3ʰƾ4ʢ 196MWh272oMWhͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 7

MWh10oMWhͿ

ĎȲ30 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

50

524 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

Yacute1ampD1bP14 FIT iacuteƄͶoumlɯ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄͿźľiacuteƄźľEgraveȉͶoumlɯ3ĽŌͿ 23ǓƱiquestʡG2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ3ʢ 91ͼKźľiacuteƄ1DFłampH4ɯȐʿDFŅ3ĔTHORNKƖEHGamp-G x 5-8 4ĔTHORN3ŃǘȥǛͿͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOz3ŃǘbP1GźľiacuteƄ

3ĽŌͿKȣampA3-G

x 5Q-8 1CNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup331

525 aringmH7B

bP3mccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿ-G3EſĹbP3ͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOzEaRZnɯ

3yacute˞acuteKɄamp-G3ăccedil0Xj`yKƖGJG

53 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 5Ă6 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+psup332

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

76 (106)

83 (115) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

87 (121)

86 (120) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash11 (ndash15)

ndash3 (ndash4) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2009) ldquoEoacutelica 09 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Julio 2009)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileANUARIO20COMPLETO5B15Dpdf

ĎȲ31 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ32 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

51

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2008) ldquoEoacutelica 08 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Junio 2008)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee- publicaAEE_anuario_ingles08pdf

AEE ndash Intermoney (2006) ldquoEstudio de costes del sector eoacutelico Realizado por Intermoney para AEE (2006)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee-publica060612-Gen-EolicaEsp- PRALpdf

Comisioacuten Nacional de la Energiacutea (CNE) wwwcnees

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Red Eleacutectrica de Espantildea (REE) Spanish TSO wwwreees Royal Decree 6612007 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacionRD_661-2007-REpdf Royal Decree 4362004 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacion(36)RD436_2004pdf Spanish Market Operator (OMEL) wwwomeles

52

Aring 6Auml 1$QN

61 1$QNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bQRm3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙ0E71 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿK˷ǥG

611 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş42004ƀ1 474 MW)amp3 2008ƀǶ14 937 MW0)Gx 6-1ͿbQRmĆ3ȳQOoyM3ˬOtildeş4 2007ƀ14 110 MW-)amp=ampqN`N133Ƀ-3ɯAEHG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯcurrenɂ4EUdivideɳĴ3ěĴaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 3mg1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)

x 6-1 1$QNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_Uacuteuacute

ǛΆVinkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 and European Commission 2010 Ugrave 6-14bQRm1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=amp

Ugrave 6-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 6-1 1$QNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

220 220 272 322 381 429 470 560 698 951 2065 4365

ȳ 10 20 23 23 23 23 23 23 133 133 150 182

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

53

Ugrave 6-2 1$QNoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

ndashndashndash 05 51 50 59 48 41 90 138 253 278 288

ȳ ndashndashndash 10 25 0 0 0 0 0 110 0 4 4

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

612 s_CcedilN3N9A

bQRm-4aumlɣė˃SrY1DGɯ3ǓǎʘĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ (TGC) KŨTHORNG$3ɶɱ42016ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 17 TWh1ŀB-G3ɶȔOacuteK2020ƀ=-1ė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 25 TWh1GE1OacuteGampɠķ3iacuteƄ3ǔȜȏ˪HG=ampbQRmsQR3aacute`bl3Ȓʝ1ğampordfȾ˖J

HG 2008 ƀ=-4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ˖ɢĿĽŌ13AĤ5HGijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) Ͷoumlɯ

1ɥHamp3ɢĿĽŌ134ȳͶoumlɯ14 2009ƀ=-eumlɥė˃-)amp=amp 2003ƀ1vPjnaRZn3Ǔǎ˩ɩŐHampȳͶoumlɯţaringȥNtildeȎȀĸŻ-3Ͷoumlɯ)

ampˉģȻ˟0HampaRZn12008 ƀE 2012 ƀ=-3Ǵ1 3710 5160 oͿ3currenʙotildeƎEHG

2006 ƀʈǕƃ3ɢĿƐccedilǿ1Gˠiuml0E71ǝˠͶoumlɯaRZn3˴ėdbʞɬĀH25 MW=-3QOoyM4ˇȬiquest1ŭaeligH5ˬʹ-G0)amp ͶɅ3eumlɥ1GƥĽKƁcedilGampbQRmǕƃ3Ũ3Ͷoumlɯ3eumlɥ1GĴatilder

jnZĎȲ33ȒʝHamp3rjnZ1DFͶoumlɯ3˩ɩʘŚD7˴ŚʋuacuteOslashoumlbrvbarȐ3ɯ

Ůʰƾʚɡ1Gʀ˾KȻbQRm3ͶoumlɯɯaRZnKEumlH

G E1Ͷoumlɯ3]mOrgKɥɯbrvbarȐʿEcircƎŬ0E71ĸUcircĸĻĴ3ě|1

GEcircʿ3ordfȵEumlKIJ)G

62 1$QNVUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

621 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bQRm-43aRZn3szligːǨ4 2600Έ3050 ǨĽġHGżbQR

m3Ͷoumlɯj1ʆHGszligːǨ4ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿNjaeligampǘŒKĮ)

G3amp˩ʙ-4bQRm3aRZn3ǰʨɱ0ͶoumlɯǨKĽġHampʜı3 2600ǨͿG

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3aRZn42008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZn3]bnD7ɯoumlēǧ

Hampdeg˘ɱaRZnŚʻHamp Ƿ]bn4ampF 12171915kW1692Έ2662okWͿ=-Fmccedilǿ-4 1591kW2212okWͿsup3Śamp

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3ijŚccedil4ſĹ 0004 kW0006 okWͿŃuumlccedil4ʢ 11 MWh15 o

ĎȲ33 httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse đɔ

54

MWhͿLJŚG3Ńuuml4 7 MWh10 oMWhͿE 24 MWh33 oMWhͿ=-FvPjnaRZn1Gʰƾ4ż1ŃuumlņɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒

ɮ0)G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 Ugrave 6-51ʆD1mccedilǿ-4OumleumlőKƷŞżĽġG 5˟L-GͶoumlɯ1Ʒ

GparaȐ3middot˩Ľġ3ccedilǿ-420ͼƍOuml]bnʆHGbQRm3paraȐccedilǿEŨaeligampƛ˞0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞʫ7macrOumleumlőɞK 5LJŚampľĜͶoumlɯ3]bnKũ˰EgraveG10F20

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ǵŋʢ1DGźľ93oumlłŨTHORNHGĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ

23ĔTHORN3ȵH1D)KƖG(E3ĔTHORNɅAʄśƟż12008ƀ=-FITĽŌiacuteƄAɥHFͶoumlɯaRZn4 2 MWh3 oMWhͿŪͳ3ĽŌKĖamp

(f) Q54Q1 LCOE˩ʙ3mg4˫3D0ɥǓǎ˩ɩ3ʫȁD7Ĵatilde3_3amp1bQRmSrY

Ŭ=ampmg)amp˜ǘ3ƥĽɅ1ļ+A3-GǑĐ]bn4 Svensk Vindenergi (2009) 3mgKAumlɥampbQRm3Ͷoumlɯ˩ɩ1Gʭ˩Oacute4bQRmSrYŬȢƀɯ˘

GĽġǮ ES20103 ldquoVindkraft statistic 2009 (Wind power statistics 2009)rdquoD7 Vindkraft Statistik 20081ļ+G2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯǨ4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ3mgKAumlɥGE1Ͷoumlɯ3ɯȐbrvbarʿEʆmg3NjAEligKĖamp=ampEcircGotildeƊɞKǥE1Gampmiddot˩ǛKđɔampE14˚Ǜ O2 0E71 AriseȇƉźľ3ŨTHORN1GbrvbarȐaeligɘəEŦŞ3Ƨ˟KƊɥamp

622 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

2008ƀǨɏ-ŨTHORNHampbQRmǰņ3ȳaRZn4Lillgrunden3 11 MW3aRZn-)amp3aRZn4 Vattenfall 2004ƀ1Ɗʮ2007ƀ1ʡʭ1ʡHampLillgrundenaRZn-4 Siemens3 23 MWͶ MKII 48ļAumlɥHG$3( 13ļ4 2004ƀsup2ntilde1ʡʭ1ʡHGbQRm3ǰǝaRZn4 3 MW3Ͷ 10ļKOtildeamp GaumlsslingegrundaRZn-H4 VaumlnernɃ3Ģ 7Έ13m1ļʅKˬʹampqN`N133aRZn-G

Ugrave 6-3 LillgrundenBL0+Z

Lillgrundenmg Ά ļɆȷDF 115 m gɷƑΆ 924 m ʱʏΆ 6734 m2 iacuteƗǞȰΆ ėŃxjiD7ėŃƄ gƄΆ 6Έ16 rpm ǰņYacuteʔƄΆ 280 kmh gΆ 60 t pdΆ 82 t gΆ 110 t LJŚƀɯoumlΆ 6875500 kWh ˬOtildeeumlɥɞΆ 35ͼ ſĹͶΆ 85 ms

55

Ugrave 6-4 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 235 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 41 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2600 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1591 (2212) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 0004 (0006) NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 16 (222) NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 6-5 1$QNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 12 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 87 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 13 NA NA WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 47 NA NA

Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 28 NA NA

FXn SEKeuro ndashndashndash 942 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

Ugrave 6-6 1$QNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 50 (70) NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 25 (35) NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 2 (3) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 1 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

623 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

x 6-2 1ʆD1bQRm3 LCOE 4đɔbDFʢ 1 MWh1 oMWhͿfrac120)G

56

x 6-2 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1psup334

(a) BL0+dj bQRm3szligːǨ4đɔbDFAH4ͶoumlɯaRZn1eumlɥ-Gĵĸʏ

^[ampreg3Țŵ˽ĴDFAņampƎɓ3-G

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3Ʒ4oumlɯaRZnTGC `bl2001 ƀEŨTHORNͿ0E71Ǡœ3 NordPool

ʡʭ1995ƀEoumlĕƊͿ3amp1đɔbDFABB0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig đɔbbQRm3ʰƾ3Ÿɮ4ǰũ3A3-H4^1DGė˃Ɵʹ˒

-40

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bQRm3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12H4bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ93Ʒ1

GbZ3|frac12E-FbQRm3Ͷoumlɯɯ1GʪEƎɓ3˧G

x 6-3 1$QNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup335

ĎȲ34 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

57

624 s_CcedilN3N9A

ĔTHORN4 1Ϳoumlł1DGĔTHORN2Ϳ[˯Ǯł1DGĔTHORN3ͿFITE3Ūͳ3ĔTHORN2009ƀ1ƆțͿ3 3-ȒƭHG ĔTHORN4źľE33ȵH-GampʄśƟņ0b-4ȥǛ4 50 MWh

70 oMWhͿ-ŘŚG˟0H[˯ǮEgraveȉ4ʢ 25 MWh35 oMWhͿ)amp2009ƀ1OacuteHamp

625 aringmH7B ſĹɱ0aRZn14ouml3źľEgraveȉ TGCiacuteƄ3˚UgraveKʩgtĜJG-ăccedil1]bnK

-GD-G

Ugrave 6-7 1$QNIumlsectpsup336

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 75

(104) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash8

(ndash11) NA NA

63 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 6-7 1ʆampD1bQRm3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˇŹǷ]bnD7Ouml]bnfrac12amp1ǷdivideſĹĎEgrave (WACC) ȣɱfrac120)GD-GaRZn3AEligʬ4Ouml1DGǷ˺1DGA3-macr3˺Ǵ4 20ƀ-G$HDFAmacrǴʁľĜA$EG˕Ǵ3ʨpoundǨ1ʸFHG bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ4ȞĘ=ampƀƞ1ƭG2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrY

ɅK 25 TWh1GɶȔKƭGamp14ͶoumlɯKE1ɯŮƛ˞G

rOtildemiddot

Dagens Industri wwwdise 2010-03-16 Storm kring vindkraftsbolag

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

E24 wwwe24se 2010-03-16 Vindkraftsbolagen anklagas foumlr glaumldjekalkyler Nationellt naumltverk foumlr vindbruk (national network for winduse) httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse

Svensk Vindenergi 2009 Vindkraftverk ndash kartlaumlggning av aktiviteter och kostnader vid nedmontering aringterstaumlllande av plats och aringtervinning

Vinkraftstatistik 2009 ES 20103 2010 Swedish Energy Agency available at

ĎȲ35 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ36 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

58

httpwwwenergimyndighetenseGlobalPressPressmeddelandenVindkraftsstatistik202009p df

Vindkraftstatistik 2007 ES 20082 2008 Swedish Energy Agency available at httpwwwenergimyndighetenseen

59

Aring 7Auml 11

71 11uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bPb3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙacirciquestɱ14 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿ3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1GbPb4atildeĴ-GampȳaRZn4œķ0ǪˤIgrave3ampɃȭĸĻ4ɠķͶoumlɯ^PnEńHG

711 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş41996ƀ3 2 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 14 MW1ŀdivideampͶoumlɯ1DGƀɯouml4 2000ƀ3 18 GWhE 2008ƀ3 2020 GWh1ŀdivideampH1ť 2008ƀ3ʱ˞ouml4 587 TWh-Gɠķ˩ɩEHGaRZn1D)2012ƀ14 65 MW3ɯė˃10GLJŚHGǕƃ3SrYǕʘ-4 2030ƀ1 44 MWKɯGɶȔKljG

x 7-1 11uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

Ugrave 7-14bPb1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 7-24ĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-1 11IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

28 28 451 455 456 866 116 116 116 136 176 65 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

60

Ugrave 7-2 11oacute_ethyumlMWĀ

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

28 00 170 065 001 350 290 002 000 200 400 150 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

712 s_CcedilN3N9A

bPb-4 2008 ƀ1oPkĝȓ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄFITͿKŨTHORNamp3`bl4LJŚHG LCOEKamp3A3-GFIT 1Ġ=HG34oumlźľEgraveȉ[ouml3Oacute-GͶoumlɯ14bPb3 FIT4 110MWh153oMWhͿΈ130MWh181oMWhͿ1ijŚHG

72 11VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

721 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZn42 MW3Ͷ 6ļKOtildeamp Juraű˅Ȕ 1000Έ1200 mͿ3

QOoyM-GbPb1GͶoumlaRZn3L2 MW3ͶgɷƑ 82 mtzʢ 8 0mͿKɥG3ĸĻ-4NZdbiacuteHGamp1gɷƑg31ˬEHFŚȉaeligouml 800Έ1000 kWtz 40~60 m3ͶKeumlɥG

(b) ccedil-1 bPb1Gdeg˘ɱ0aRZn3ě3Ʒ]bn4ampF 1790 kW2488 kWͿ-G

Țŵ1GͶ93Ʒ]bn3otildeĜ4ſĹʢ 76bPb-4 55~6810)G34bPb3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn93NZdbďiacuteHGamp=ampbPb-4laquoacuteż1amp-G

3ampɯƯ3ʪȣɱ0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ14bPb-4śʷŪ0ampEWEA agrave˘ampʰƾ3ȣ1ļ+bPb3ʰƾK 31MWh43oMWhͿsup3Śamp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 sup23˘4bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥamp˺]bnKʆG

Ugrave 7-3 ccedilntildeacirciacute-1YacuteEgrave

źľeuml 5 ƛ˞0Ƿeumlɲɞ 7

Ƿ3otildeĜ 30 ˀɥƀǘ 20ƀ ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ 20ƀ

Py 0 Ǵ 20ƀ

ȰlaquoʌɞOECDͿ 21

61

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A bPb14aumlɣė˃SrYɯ3brvbarȐeumlɥ-Gɜʑ3ĔTHORN`bl 2ʍ͵G 64 FIT `bl-H4sup23]bn˩ʙ3ļɵ0GA3-3ȽKĖEHG34Ȧoumlɯ

10 MWsup2atildeͿňɖɯͶoumlɯuPUb0E71uPUbƆǺ-Gaumlɣė˃SrYɅ[vͿ1DGɯ1ɥė˃03Ǜ`bl4ɯǞƉaeligoumlecirc1đɔˬOtilde1ļ+acirciquest

ɱ1ˠŚHěƴ˗3 LCOEK-Gshyʩgt10)GȽ4ɯǞƉ1D) 20Έ25ƀ3Ǵ1ɥHGcurrenƦHGƴ˗db0E71HE3ƴ˗3źľĀEuml1DFHE3Ǜ`bl

-4ͳ3Ƞɱfrac12currenƦHGǛ3ȿͳɥHG34ɰampɯˬOtilde3gt-FHE3ˬ

Otilde4ȽǴK ŚampǛ`bl1DFȽKĖGɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKLľĜ$HĝǨ1oumlźľ-[oumlKłG4-00G ʖ 2 3ĔTHORN`bl4[oumlźľ-GɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKeumlɥ-0ľĜ4źľ-

oumlKłG10Gż$3ĔTHORN4ɯbrvbarȐʿoumlmiddotʇ3ordfȾ1D)ȪŚHGoumlĽŌK

ouml3źľEgraveȉ1divideampͳ-G

(f) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşmg4 Swiss Wind Energy Association ldquoSuisse Eolerdquo1DGA3-GƷ]bn

ʰƾ3mg4 2008ƀ1˩ɩHampͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ȇ1DGA3-G˺]bn4 FIT˩ʙD7 Swiss Federal Office of Energy3mTHORNouml3sup3Ś1ļ+A3-G Ugrave 7-47-64bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOELJŚ1ɥampmĀ1Gsup3ŚKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-4 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 2 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 6 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 1750 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1790 (2488) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 31 (43) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 7-5 11uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 7 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 30 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 70 NA NA Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 21 NA NA

FXn CHFeuro ndashndashndash 067 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

62

Ugrave 7-6 11uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125 (174) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash Ńuuml NA NA

ɯȐʿTHORNȐʿ-ordfȾ

73 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯ]bn4ʢ 120MWh167oMWhͿ-đɔbDFA 58MWh81oMWhͿ0)G

731 -1plusmnecirc

x 7-2 11uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecircpsup337

(a) BL0+igraveeacuteOgrave bPb-ɯHampouml4đɔbDFA˒Ū00)GH4ͶoumlɯʋƄ-Gamp

-GszligːǨ 1750ǨͿ

ĎȲ37 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringěĴ LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0G

ľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

63

(b) ccedil-1 bPb3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAH4Ņ3^Pn93NZdbİ

˜-GD7laquoacuteamp-GbPb3aRZn4ũˠȕ03-ņˠȕ0aRZ

nȣͶTHORNǨ3otildeƊɞfrac120)G

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig bPb3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAɯƯ-4ɼȧcentȵĪͲ10)F$3ampʰƾʚɡ

]bn0)GbPb-4ʰƾ1Gśʷ4L0

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bPb3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ4 7HGraquoL3a

RZn4yacute3ɡɦ1DFƷ0oumlmiddotʇ˺Goumlmiddotʇ4[ouml3˞3

=F1ƚKŠG

732 s_F(=2E

bPb1GͶoumlɯ3 FIT4 110~130MWh153Έ181oMWhͿ-mĀccedilǿ-4 125MWh174oMWhͿKɥGĔTHORN3DF˳˷ǥ4 721ugrave(e) Kđɔ3|-4$Hsup2ń3yacuteǓǎ`bl40

x 7-3 11uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup338

733 aringmH7B bPb-4ǕʘPdlOz1DF LCOE K)Gx 7-3 EbPb3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaR

Zn-4 FIT1DF LCOEK˚)GJG

ĎȲ38 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

64

73

Ugrave 7-7 11uumljBL0+psup339

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 120

(167) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125

(174) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash5

(ndash7) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

Die Website fuumlr Windenergie-Daten der Schweiz Accessed at wwwwind-datach

Erlaumluternder Bericht zur Revision der Anhaumlnge EnV Bundesamt fuumlr Energie 2102009

Swiss Energy Act of June 26 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_0html

Swiss Energy Ordinance of December 7 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_01html

ĎȲ39 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

65

Aring 8Auml Ecircz

81 Ecirczuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4ʟĴ1GD7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1$3]bn3ɚƙɚ1 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3ŚK˷ǥGȳͶoumlɯ14ʟĴ-4=$3ɯ1Gśʷ ampʞć1˦HG3gtG=ampAring 1 Auml1ʆampđɔbȣamp2008ƀ3ʟĴ3]bnccedilǿʫȁK˷ǥG

811 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

ʟĴ1GʦʏˬOtildeş42000ƀ3ʢ 25 GWE 2008ƀǶ3 25 GW1ŀdivideampx 8-1Ϳ2005ƀsup2ěƀƄ3ƀˬOtildeş4˫Kǭǝʯ2008ƀ14ǝamp1 85 GWdivideHampĎȲ402008ƀ14ǝˠɯşszligiquest3 42KͶoumlɯĈGſĹɱ0ƀ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeş1DFʟĴ3ʱȸouml3ʢ 19ͼKAEligʬ-GHG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)2008ƀ3ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4szlig3ͶoumlɯƯ1GǘOacute-GȳͶoumlɯaRZnA˩ɩHFɠķ4$3˴ėĕƖ

Ƞ1G x 8-1 4ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3Đ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71 2012 ƀ3currenɂD7 2030 ƀ

3ɉķɱ`pUKʆG

x 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

ʟĴ4ǥʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3ɶȔOacuteKˬŚ0ƕ)x 8-1 4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴŞɶȔOacute3degJF3mgɏKʆampA3-GSrYƥĽŬ (EIA) 3ʁǴcurrenɂ1DH52012 ƀ1ǝamp1ʢ 10 GW divideHGampˬOtildeş4 2008ƀDFAGʋƄŀdivideG˟gt-G (EIA 2009)ĎȲ41Ǵcurrenɂ1Gƀ3ʃʐ-

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(AWEA2010)ǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ŅĴȣ3ťHamp 2008ƀ1GA3-G ĎȲ41 Yacute1ampD12009ƀ1ɯHampͶoumlɯ3ˬʹş4 10 GWƍ10 (AWEA 2010)

66

4ɉķɱ0Ͷoumlɯ`pU3ccedilǿ1ļ+2030ƀ=-1ʟĴ-˟=HGouml˞3 20KͶoumlɯ-Ʉamp-GG (DOE 2008)3ʃʐ3LJŚ1DH520Pbn1Gamp14Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 305 GWƛ˞10GD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Ĝ˩Ϳ=amp3ʃʐ-42018ƀ=-1ƀˬOtildeşʢ 16 GW1ŀdivideGLJŚG Ugrave 8-1 4ʟĴ1GĐD7notƔcurrenɂHGʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 8-2 4Đ

D7notƔcurrenɂHGƀŨTHORNşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

25 26 43 47 64 68 92 117 169 255 595 251

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

Ugrave 8-2 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

NA 01 17 04 17 04 24 25 52 86 103 16

ȳ NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

812s_CcedilN3N9A

ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ3ampGĔTHORNɅ4oumlłaumlɣė˃SrYźľ˯ǥ (REC) -Gouml3ʪȽEgraveOacute REC3ł4ĸĻźľ$3reg3Ǽacute1DFaRZnȢ1ɮ0)G ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ4Ǖƃ3ʌiacute3UacuteLjʹ1D)ǓEHG2008 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ

ƴ˗143UacuteLjʹPy˺Ǚɣɤʌͳdž PTCͿ ɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČɥė˃-)amp (Schwabe et al 2009)

PTC4 2004ƀ=-1AgraveƄɄǴ1ampH3ľĜAǭǝHamp2000ƀE 2004ƀ=-1Aɯņ1EumlHamp2004ƀsup24 PTCżǨɥ-GD10)ampamp2005ƀE 2009ƀ1ʟĴ3ƀŨTHORNş4˫ɱ1ŀdivideamp (AWEA 2010) Ǖƃ3Ǖʘȿʌ4$3ť0Gaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗1˞0ʪȽɱEacuteɲKAampEGɠķ

EgraveOacute1ļ+ͶoumlɯaRZn14PTC divideUgraveČ3sect3Eacuteɲ1DFļɆaRZn3ˬʹ]bn3 35KG˟gt-G (Bolinger 2010)ľĜ1D)4PTCdivideUgraveČ3˜Ĝɱ0ʪȽucircȁouml3ł REC3ĔTHORN1ʗ0GG4$HKĮG10G (Harper et al 2007)ĎȲ42

82 Ecircz 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ƿʛ-42008 ƀ3ʟĴ1Gdeg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKGǷĽġǮ3reg3Ĵ3ȣ3ampʟĴ3ſĹɱG4deg˘ɱ0aRZn3ɚƙKsup21˷ǥGraquoȜʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3aR

Zn]bnɚƙ4ĸĻ1D)ɮ0FˬOtildeşAņ

ĎȲ42 H4Ͷoumlɯ3oumlȥǛĸUcirc3 RECEgraveȉ)ampĸĻ1D)ɮ0GǘŅ3˞į1ŷęHG

67

821 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ1G3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ſĹˬOtildeş4 1998Έ1999ƀ3ʢ 35 MWE 2007ƀ3 120 MW

=-F2008ƀ14 83 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ1ˬʹHampͶ3Śȉş4 05 MWǵɄE 3 MW=-F2008ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn-4ſĹ 167 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ3ǰAˊɱ0Ͷ4Śȉaeligouml 15 MWgɷƑ 77 mtz 80 m (GE2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) -G

(b) BL0+Ouml ͶɅ34aRZn1D)ņ1ɮ0)Gszligiquestɱ14ʟĴ-4ɡƦɱ0Ͷȯ10)G

ʟĴ3aRZn3szligːǨ4ʢ 1800Έ4400 ǨŃuumlņ2008 ƀ14şdivideſĹ 3066 ǨˤŤHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ43szligːǨ3LJŚOacute4 2007ƀ1ˬʹH 2008ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+A3-ʟĴszligiquest3ͶɅ3ɉķƟK|b1ampA3-40ɏ1ɫƧ-

G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn4ƀɼś1ŀdivideG2008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZ

n14Ʒ]bn4ǰfrac12ʢ 1000kW1400okWͿE 1800kW2500okWͿƍ=-FşdivideſĹ4 1378kW19195okWͿ-G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ44

Ľġ1DH5Ͷ3ĕƊEgraveȉAƀǤtimesğ1)amp2008 ƀ3˕Ċȗ0E71$H1sup1ǪȥƔ1DG˞frac123Ɛ-Ͷ3EgraveȉD7AEligʬ3frac12ɣ G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009 Bolinger 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ14ijŚŃuuml3ǞĠ=H(E-˘ADş|b3]bn

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ʰƾʱͳ4Ńuuml-˘5 74MWh103oMWhͿijŚ-4ƀ 226kW314okWͿ-GĎȲ46ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3ʃʐ-42010ƀ=-3ʰƾKʢ 69MWh96oMWhͿBBfrac12˟ʏA)G (DOE 2008)ĎȲ47

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯɯaRZn3˺-4ˇŹ3otildeĜKaRZn|

b3OumlKlteampˇŹ3otildeĜ0)G34114ȞĘɱ1ɣɤʌdžǜʯɱ1˖JHampamp-GOuml1DG˺4ͶoumlɯaRZn3˺ǴKƊ=amp

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ĎȲ43 ˬOtildeeumlɥɞ 35ͼ1ļ+ ĎȲ44 ]bn4szlig 2008ƀƄ3D7o-˘ʆ2008ƀ 12DZ 31ǡsup23onjʙ1ɥampɐǯn4 1

139o (Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ45 NREL3atildemg|bELJŚampɤʌǓƱͳ3ſĹ ĎȲ46 2008ƀ3ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71szligːǨTHORNoumlsup3Ś1ļ+ ĎȲ47 ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71 2008ƀƄ3szligːǨTHORNoumlLJŚOacute1ļ+ 2008ƀo1ŃnjampLJŚOacute

68

1ijŚG40)ampE-GʟĴ3Ouml3ư4ż`bl3szligaeligouml1ťSrYŋʢEgraveȉ

Kbrvbarntilde1ȪŚK˞ȨG (Cory and Schwabe 2009)E14 2008ƀƔĄ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ouml1DG˺4Ĵ˕źľ3˕ȴuumlbZĮ3amp˕Ċȗ3ntildeȣ˒İ10

)G (Schwabe et al 2009) mccedilǿ-4 100ͼǷƷKsup3ŚG3˺4 2008 ƀ1ʟĴ1ǃregɱ1-40ʸF

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(f) s_CcedilN3N9A ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3˞0ĔTHORNɅ41ͿǴŋʢG4źľ|b3Egraveȉ1ļ+oumlD

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(g) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3mĀccedilǿ-4==0mgfbKɥampɚ1eumlɥė˃0agraveɱǛKUacuteYacuteamp

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Ʒ]bnʰƾ)ampŃǘ14Wiser and Bolinger 20093ecirc˘1E1˳˷ǥG

822 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

ɠķ=-3IʟĴ-4ĩɥˠȕ3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥAring40ƈˬ3aRZnA

0ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3Ľġ-4= 2012Έ2018ƀ1ĩɥȳͶoumlɯ3ɯaRZnȶȦĻƴ˗KɥǾȷųȫ-ɱ1˖JHG10GǴƒHGđʾ3amp-4currenƦHGȳ

ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKʆampʟĴ-ɥHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn4=œķ0

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(b) ccedil-1 ȳͶoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4Ńuumlņ2000 ƀdegĄ5E4ğtimesğ1GʟĴȚŵ-NjȊH

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ĎȲ50 3UgraveČ˩ɩ4ƀĄ53ƫAring1ļ+A3-2008ƀ 2009ƀ1eumlɥė˃)amp 50ͼĽŌUgraveČ4ʾƬ0

69

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US Offshore Wind Collaborative-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn4 3300kW4600okWͿ10GcurrenɂG (USOWC 2009)

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn=ɥH0ampʰƾ3currenƦ4˒ʄśƟG

ɯ˘HGmg40ʟĴȚŵ-NjȊHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ1G

ǰ3˟ʏF1DH5ʱ]bn4ʢ 137MWh19oMWhͿ10GĎȲ52

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯ3ɯD7ɥ1bZ˟=HF=ampɯBɥ3ʪA0amp

Ǝeacute3(4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bnaRZnDFA4G10GcurrenƦ

HGȳͶoumlaRZn3˺-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3cedilʭɱ0ƷưȠ0J(Igrave

middotʇͿ-40bZ˭şƄ3ƷưȠ0J(Ȥ3ˇŹǷͿeumlɥHGƝJHGAring5Ȥ

3ˇŹǷƷ1ƛ˞HGeumlɲɞ4ś˯Gƴ˗1 25Έ350GcurrenƦHG (Justice 2010)=ampʟǕƃ4ĩɥD7ǝɱaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗3$Hͳ-0Ouml1DGǷ˺KǓǎ

Gamp3˕OgraveTHORNIgrave˯KNjAEligG(EAȳƴ˗1ɥ-Gė˃ƟAGͿraquoɠ˖Ȱ-4

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n1Aeumlɥ-Gsup3ŚHGǕƃ3PdlOz14˫3 PTCɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČĠ=HGɚ1ǾȷųȫcopyņɃĸĻ3ŵ4ě3ʚĂ1GȳͶoumlɯaRZnKEuml

Gamp3==0ǞȰKeumlɥHE3aRZnKŨG (USOWC 2009)

(e) Q54Q1 ȳͶoumlɯ3ɚƙ1G˞0mgɅ4ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution

to US Electricity SupplyrdquoĽġǮ (DOE 2008)US Offshore Wind Collaborative3US Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo0E71ʟĴ3ȳͶoumlɯ1Gěʍ3Ľɯ˘ʗ-GraquoǰƔ3A314ȲƧƛ˞-G

Ugrave 8-3 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ53

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ54 ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 165 167 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ͷļǘ ļ 73 50 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ɯĎȲ55 szligːǨ 2891 3066 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1241 (1725) 1378 (1915) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʰƾ ijŚͿĎȲ56 eurokW ($kW) 50 (70) 50 (70) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʰƾ ŃuumlͿĎȲ57

euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (80) 58 (80) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

$3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆWiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ51 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ52 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ53 Yacute1ampD1]bn4szlig 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆ ĎȲ54 3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙ4ntildeʛ1ʆGȳͶoumlɯ4ʟĴ3 LCOEccedilǿ14Ġ0 ĎȲ55 eumlɥɞ 2007ƀ 33ͼ2008ƀ 35ͼsup3ŚG (Wiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) ĎȲ56 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampş|b3ʰƾ4 2007ƀ 2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG ĎȲ57 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampɯouml|b3ʰƾ42007ƀ2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG

70

(f) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 8-38-5 4ș1G LCOE ccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3sup3ŚKʆG]bn3sup3Ś4HA 2007 ƀ

2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1GA3-2008ƀƄ3o-˘GmD7ǞȰ3˳˷ǥ4Aring 1AumlKđɔHamp

Ugrave 8-4 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 100 100 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash WACC ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

Ǵ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ȰlaquoʌɞĎȲ58 ͼ 389 389 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FXnĎȲ59 $US 139 139 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆChadbourne and Parke 2009 Harper et al 2007 Schwabe et al 2009

Ugrave 8-5 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

oumlźľEgraveȉĎȲ60 euroMWh ($MWh) 382 (531) 419 (582) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

źľEgraveȉ˯ǥĎȲ61 euroMWh ($MWh)

˫1 Ġ=HG

˫1 Ġ=HG ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FITǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml |bͿĎȲ62

euroMWh ($MWh) 144 (200) 151 (210) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ 10 10 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 6 6 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆHarper et al 2007 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ58 LJŚHampǕƃŵǕƃ3ʌɞ4$HH 35ͼ 6ͼ-Gɏ1ɫƧ (Harper et al 2007)ŵʌ4ĔTHORNEdž

HGamp˜Ĝśucircʌɞ4 389ͼ-G ĎȲ59 szlig3]bn4 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆGamp2007ƀA 2008ƀA 2008ƀǶ3ɐǯnKɥamp

(Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ60 2007ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3EgraveȉˬŚ1Gsup3ŚAWiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+˥amp ĎȲ61 aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3LJŚͳKouml3źľEgraveȉ3˩ʙ1ĠG ĎȲ62 PTCnjʙOacute4 13frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORN

71

823 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯTHORNoumlvgKɥ2007 ƀ 2008 ƀ3 LCOE K˩ʙamp2008 ƀ3ʟĴ LCOE2008

ƀ3ʟĴ3sup3ŚKszligAumlɥͿKđɔb2008 ƀ3đɔb3szligsup3ŚKAumlɥͿȣamp$3ʫȁ4sup23F-G Ĵecirc3ěTHORNoumlŃǘKě3đɔb3sup3ŚEʟĴ3sup3Ś9ŀccedilɱ1degTHORNđɔbʟĴ3 LCOE

3Ÿɮ93ěŃǘ3ƐKLJŚ-GD1ampʟĴ3 LCOE 4 3 MWh4 oMWhͿ-đɔb3 LCOEDFAfrac12x 8-2đɔͿ

x 8-2 EcirczrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup363

(b) BL0+dj ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4ſĹˍō0Ͷȯ3ơƣKĖG-G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ|b3

aRZn-4ſĹ 3066 Ǩ3szligːǨǴƒHGđɔb-4 2628 ǨͿʟĴ-4aRZn3aeligouml0G LCOEđɔbDFAʢ 8MWh11oMWhͿfrac120G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAʢ 72 kW100o kWͿfrac120)G

2008ƀ3ſĹƷ]bn4đɔb 1449kW2029okWͿ-G31ťʟĴ-4 1378kW19195okWͿ-GǑĐ]bnͶoumlɯˬOtilde3ǑĐ]bnaRZn^Pn3ƘUcirc]bnĠ=HGͿ4szliggt3Ʒ]bn1Ġ=HGsup3ŚHGƕ)ʟĴ-4Ʒ]bnfrac12

G1HLCOEđɔbDFAʢ 2MWh3oMWhͿfrac120G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3˺]bn4ˇŹǷ|amp2008ƀ4 100ͼͿ=ampđɔb-4

Ouml1DG˺KɥGampđɔbDFA0)G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯaRZn3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ75ͼͿ4đɔb3Oumleumlɲɞ55ͼͿDFA 200|`bPn0)G ʟĴ-4ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 2007 ƀE 2008 ƀ1ŀdivideampH4ǕĊȗ1DFƕǽ3ǷƷŞ

ĎȲ63 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

72

KŊ)ampamp-G (Schwabe et al 2009)H4=ampư0Egraveȉ3frac34Ŗ)ampreg3ʊʌdžƷAĝȓ3ơƣKƖEHGD1GʟĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY3ʌdžǕʘ3Ɵ1DGA3-3Ǖʘ1DF 2007ƀ1ʢ 6ͼ3eumlɲNjAEligHHȇƉƷeumlɲɞ3KŚG10)amp (Chadbourne and Parke 2007)ʟĴ3˺]bn0GʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 8MWh11oMWhͿ0G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAfrac120)Gʰƾ4ijŚG4Ńuuml-˘-

G3ampđɔb3ȣ-4ŃuumlǼacute-˘ampnjʙćǛ3LJŚOacuteampʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJ

Śʱͳ4 7MWh10oMWhͿđɔb3 13MWh18oMWhͿK4G1Į)ampraquoĽġ1DH5ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯɤȐ4ʰƾʚɡ]bn3˟ʏF1G˞˹Ͳ1ɠķAɷFĽ

ġHampmg4Ǩřszlig-Gamp3LJŚOacute4ƪ1˥Gƛ˞G =ampʰƾ4aRZn3ˠȕũ0G1Hfrac12G˯ƻAG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

HAʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJŚͳđɔbȣfrac120)G3į-GʟĴ3aR

Zn3ˠȕ4đɔbDFAņampͿ=ampʟĴ3ʰƾ4ǝˠaRZn14=DzucircIgrave

˯Ǵatilde-Gamp1ʵĥHGė˃ƟGʟĴ3ʰƾfrac120GʟĴ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFAʢ 6MWh8oMWhͿfrac120G

(f) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4Ƿ]bn˺]bnG4szliggt3ʰƾ1Ġ=HGƦŚHGamp

ʟĴ3ccedilǿ-4ecircmĀ0reg3]bn14ʡʭɥʿ1DGfrac12ĶPob (LVRT) ˞acuteG4ɑucircouml]bnʗGN`^wbǛ4ż4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɷDž˹

HG40

(g) uumljfrac14divideWocirceumlCcediloslash Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ]bn4đɔbDFA0)GHE3Ǖʘ1

41ͿȰlaquoʌɞ2ͿȰlaquo˹ʌƯƖE3eumlőǓƱdžĠ=HGʟĴ3DzucircȰlaquoʌɞ389Ϳ4đɔb30ͿDFA$3amp LCOE0)GE1Ƿ1DG 100˺K˟L-GampʟĴ3 LCOE ˹ʌƯƖ3eumlőǓƱdž1D)ȿͳHG40ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFAʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ0)G

824 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj3˩ʙ1DFʟĴ3ĔTHORNŃǘouml RECͿ3OacuteKͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘȣGyacuteYj4=ĔTHORNǕʘAͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘKĠ

1˩ʙș1ĔTHORNŃǘ3gtKĠauml˩ʙGǰƔ1auml7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘKĠ˩

ʙG3ŀccedilsup3Ś1DFͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘ1ťGĔTHORN3ɸťɱEgraveOacuteKǥE1amp x 8-34ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘĔTHORN3ŃǘKȣHE 23D1ʟĴ3 LCOE

KȒƭGKʆampA3-G2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3 LCOEʢ 41MWh57oMWhͿ4ĔTHORNɅouml REC3łͿ-JHGʢ 24MWh33oMWhͿ4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHGPTCUgraveČ˩ɩ3divideͿotildeĜ-˘0EʟĴ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 24ĔTHORN-ȟF3 3ccedil3 14ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHG

73

x 8-3 Ecirczs_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup364

825 aringmH7B

ʟĴ3mĀccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash1 MWhndash1 oMWhͿ-G3EʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4aRZnɯ1ƛ˞HGyacute˞acuteKɄamp31ăccedil0Xj`

yKĔTHORND7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOzȉGľĜͿEƖG10G34

PTCżǨDzucirc-)amp 2005Έ2009ƀ3ƀͶoumlˬOtildeş3ʯɱ˫EAǥE-GH41ƀŨTHORNş4 PCT]bnɑucirc10)ampǨ1˒ȿŪG (AWEA2009)ĎȲ65

83 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+

ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ƀƞ1ƼņGH4Ͷȯż1ˍō-]bnȣɱfrac12ĔTHORN

Ʌăccedil1F=ampľĜ1D)4Dzɲ0ǕʘPdlOzKeumlɥ-GE-GʟĴ1Gɠķ=

-3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn4HA-śǟHampʟĴeacute0GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯ

EHGʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bn4ˊ1đɔbDFAfrac12H4SrYaeligouml

ņǷ]bnʰƾfrac121DGͶoumlɯ1GǕƃ3ǕʘPdlOzȜ

Ɖ1˴ŚHamp-Ĵatilde3Ņ3szlig-401AͿ3ɯaRZnEumlHG10)amp

E-GĔTHORNǕʘ3PdlOz3ɸiexclucircȁ1DFͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ3yacuteYj4lte10

)G

Ugrave 8-6 EcirczIumlsectpsup366

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

58 (81)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

60 (83)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

ndash1 (ndash1) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ĎȲ64 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ65 x 8-1đɔ ĎȲ66 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

74

rOtildemiddot

AWEA (2010) ldquoUS Wind Energy Industry Breaks All Records Installs Nearly 10000 MW in 2009 Manufacturing

Investment Jobs Still Lagrdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) news release January 26 2010 at httpwwwaweaorgnewsroomreleases01-26- 10_AWEA_Q4_and_Year-End_Report_Releasehtml

AWEA (2009) ldquoAmerican Wind Energy Association Annual Wind Industry Report Year Ending 2008rdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) at httpwwwaweaorgpublicationsreportsAWEA-Annual-Wind-Report-2009pdf

Bolinger M (2010) ldquoRevealing the Hidden Value that the Federal Investment Tax Credit and Treasury Cash Grant Provide to Community Wind Projectsrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL-2909E January 2010 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreportslbnl-2909epdf

Capewind (2010) ldquoCape Wind Signs Agreement to Buy Siemens 36-MW Offshore Wind Turbinesrdquo Cape Wind (Capewind) news release March 31 2010 at httpwwwcapewindorgnews1086htm

Chadbourne and Parke (2009) ldquoTrends in Tax Equity for Renewable Energyrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke January 2009 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication810dde60-3c78-4a9a-9c5d- a5fae8014b4fPresentationPublicationAttachment51fc06c5-1407-48ac-9dff- a605de0f58e1pfn0109pdf

Chadbourne and Parke (2007) ldquoThe Tax Equity Marketrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke April 2007 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication572b04b4- 905e-48e1-8f6b-0f520c4f2615PresentationPublicationAttachment573bdc6c-ff85-4f99-b4d0- 25a845907bccpfn0407pdf

Cory K Schwabe P (2009) ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financing Input Variablesrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL TP-6A2-46671 October 2009 at httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

DOE (2010) ldquoGeneral Loan Guarantee Program Frequently Asked Questionsrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) accessed April 2010 at httpwwwlgprogramenergygovfaq2htm

DOE (2008) ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution to US Electricity Supplyrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2008 at httpwww20percentwindorg

EIA (2009) ldquoAnnual Energy Outlook 2010 Early Release with Projections to 2030rdquo US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration (EIA) website accessed February 2010 at httpwwweiadoegovoiafaeoexcelaeotab_16xls

102Federal Reserve (2010) ldquoHistorical Rates for Euro Areardquo Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System website accessed February 2010 at httpwwwfederalreservegovreleasesh10histdat00_euhtm

GE (2010) ldquo15 MW Wind Turbine Technical Specificationsrdquo GE Energy (GE) website accessed April 2010 at httpwwwgepowercomprod_servproductswind_turbinesen15mwspecshtm

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review amp Comparative Analysisrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports63434pdf

Justice S (2009) ldquoPrivate Financing of Renewable Energy ndash A Guide for Policymakers UNEP Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative Bloomberg New Energy Finance Chatham House December 2009 at httpwwwchathamhouseorgukfiles15542_1209_financeguidepdf

Schwabe P Cory K Newcomb J (2009) ldquoRenewable Energy Project Financing Impacts of the Financial Crisis and Federal Legislationrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory technical report NRELTP-6A2-44930 July 2009 at

75

httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti44930pdf

USOWC (2009) ldquoUS Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo US Offshore Wind Collaborative (USOWC) October 2009 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreports63434pdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2009) ldquo2008 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2009 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports2008-wind-technologiespdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2008) ldquoAnnual Report on US Wind Power Installation Cost and Performance Trends 2007rdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy May 2008 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs43025pdf

76

Uograve AĂsup1agraveUumlaacute

shyocircMQ+Q

BL0+para

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

aRZn3gPn Project title

aRZnĞregĴ3QOo

yMȣGamp AringΆoPk3đɔQOoyM13

aRZn3ʍ͵ Project type

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ʍ͵ A4ȳ

Ͷļǘ Number of wind turbines

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

Ͷʱǘ$EěĴ3ɡ˼

3ſĹɱQOoyMͿ

ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

Śȉaeligouml Rated power

Ͷ 1ļ3Śȉaeligouml ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

gɷƑ Rotor diameter

Ͷ3gɷƑ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

ĖͶʏ Swept area

gͶKĖGszligʏ m2-˘˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

tz Hub height

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ƚĸɏ3ſĹ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽraquotz

3ſĹͶƀɯouml4ɷDž

EcircGͿ tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ

Lond term average wind speed at hub height

tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

Ȝģɯouml Net electricity production

QOoyM3ƀſĹȜ

ģɯouml szligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

ƺʌouml Tax capability

iacute΄ɑiacute ćɜ3aRZn3ľĜ

4ʌiacuteUacuteʘKszligeumlɥ-GͿG4

ˣmiddotʇKƾ3ľĜ4ˣmiddotʇ

Ǝ˲ƀƄ3ʌdžKszligDzucirc1eumlɥ-

GͿ4_Ƹ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4

Ĵʌ΄ʌ3gt1ɥHGŵʌBĸ

Ǟʌ4ńͿ Currency

szlig]bnĔTHORNPdlOz

ʗ3 2007ǫƀ 2008ǫƀ3$HHdeg˘ɱ0ǡ $HH 2007ƀ 12DZ 3ǡ 2008ƀ12DZ 31ǡͿ3ȣ1ļ+1ˬŚ

ijŚƀ]bnćfrac14 Fixed annual costs unit

ijŚʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kW

Ńuumlƀ]bnćfrac14 Variable annual costs unit

ƀʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kWh

ccedil-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ͷ Wind turbine

ͶD7ɯ˙ʹ3Yacute˖Ʒ

]bn ggtzgĖ

oPznPKƿʆGPy

YN~jZb`blxj

i`blzX`blpdt

77

Qa[ɯȗgzoͶ

ɥŃĶĬraraquoļʅG4ʡʭDž

ʯ4Ġ=reg-ƲͿ Ͷ3 Wind turbine transportation

ͶK˛ŶľEaRZ

nɯ^Pn1$1ˬ

ʹ-GD1Gamp3]b

n

Ͷ3aRZn^Pn93Křpound

Gamp1ɥEHG΄n

jZ]bnD7Z3]bnK

Ġ Ͷ3ˬʹ Wind turbine installation

aRZnƈˬǴ3Ͷ

3ˬʹ]bn ƈˬ3Z3]bnKĠ

ũ˩ΆͶ3]bn Sub-total wind turbine cost

Ͷ 3ļsup23]bn3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ļʅ Foundations

QOoyM1ƛ˞0ļʅ

3ʱ]bn ]Zn$3regQOoyM

3ěͶKǓG31ƛ˞0ȒǓȅK

Ġ Ȓatildeʡʭ Internal grid

QOoyM3ŃƯ93

Džʯ1ƛ˞0QOoyM

atilde3ȥʡʭ

QOoyMatilde3szlig3ʳQO

oyM3ŃƯ=-D7ŃƯ

3ʳKĠͿŃƯ1ʡɏDF

ntilde1ʡʭʡŃĶĬGľĜ4$3Ń

ĶĬ=-3szlig3ʳKĠ1șiacuteƗɯ`blKuziacuteƗGamp1ˬʹ

HampiacuteƗ˙ʹͿ3]bnKĠƯDzʿ

D7Ͷ˛brvbarȐʿ1ǖB˿ġKcedilamp

FͶKǒAcirc1DFuumlD7Ocirc

țampFɥʭ˩OacuteKƵǍGamp3

ɴˡiacuteƗ`bl (SCADA)G4QOoyMɴˡ`bl3ˬʹKĠ

ʡʭʡ[jo]o3

Ɇƻ Grid connection grid code compliance

QOoyM3ʡʭʡ1

ƛ˞0ŃĶĬǠœ3oumlʡʭ

-ƛ˞HGȥʡʭ

QOoyMEʡʭ=-3ʳ

0[jo]oɆƻ3amp1ȨE

HGegrave3divideɱ˙ʹĠ=HGQO

oyMʡʭʡŃĶĬKĠ˜ǘ3

ŃƯKDzGľĜʡʭʡŃĶĬ

ʡʭ3ʳ3gtKĠ ʡʭŀƍ Grid reinforcement

˄Ƌ0ʡʭ-4QOoyM

3ʡ3ampʡʭ3reg3ccedil

3ĶʤKG1DF

ʡʭKŀƍGė˃ƟG

Ǡœ3ʡʭ3ŀƍ1ƛ˞0˙ʹ

ŀƍdivideɱiacuteƗ$3reg3macrdivideɱ˙ʹKĠ

Ϳ

ŃƯ Substations and transformer station

ʡʭʡŃĶĬˇiquestD7$H

=-3ĂKĠampQOoy

M3ʡʭatilde1Gszlig3

ŃƯ3]bn

ʡʭ93ʡĸɏ=-ǜĬD7ǜ

ĬKĠŃĶĬ4ĶKǤĶGȥ

ȗĬ-GL3Ͷ4aeligoumlKʡ

ʭĶ1ǤĶGŃĶĬKDzG ũ˩Άȥʡʭ Sub-total electrical netgrid

ȥʡʭ1G˫ 4 ɶ3ũ˩

˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ˴˯ Certification

ʡʭʡG1amp)QO

oyMK˴˯Gamp3]

bn

˴˯Hampˬ˩IJ3]bnD7QOo

yM3ś3ƈˬK3ˬ˩IJȣ

G]bnKĠ ɢĿ˺Ȇ Environmental survey

QOoyM3ɯȠ-

ƛ˞10GɢĿ˺Ȇ3ʱͳH

4ěĴ3ɢĿƐ˰EgraveǮ3acirciquest

ɱ0˞acute1˟G-G

ȩȃ3ė˃ƟɊɇograveʗͿ ͷ|3LJŚ Ǫˤ93ˡˢɱƐ ɣɣəD7ɣƩʡ93ƈˬD7 3Ɛ ɚŚ3ͻ˓˔3ɴˡ `oQyjV3Oslash

Pysup2ń3ɯ]bn

3ũ˩ Non-infrastructure development subtotal

˫3Pysup2ń3aR

Znɯ3˫ 2ɶ3ʱ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

78

ʰƾˬOtilde OampM facilities

ʰƾȐyacute3˖1ƛ˞0

D7ǟˬKǝamp1ƈˬG

]bn

Ͷ3ƈˬ14aRZn3ˀ

ɥƀǘ3ʰƾgzo3

ɏȏ]bnD7ņĺĦ3ordfnj]bn $3reg Miscellaneous

˫3aRZnɯ]bn

1Ġ=H0$3regegrave3

]bn

3ĵĸƯDzʿ93˚Ugrave

ntilde3eumlőǓƱ Interest payment before operation

aRZnŐntilde1ǓƱ

ƛ˞10Geumlő3ʱͳ ż4ƈˬȠ3OumlD7Ͷ3Ͱ

ǓƱ3amp33Ńǘ4 1Έ2ƀatilde3yacuteŃǘ-G3Xj`y

mŐHGɥeacuteƀƄ1

4ntilde-ǓƱ]bnG reg3aRZnɯ]b

n3ũ˩ Sub-total other project development costs

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫frac14ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0

ľĜʱͳ-˘

aRZnƷ]bn3

ʱͳ Total project investment costs

˫ɯɶũ˩3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

q-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǑĐbZjEgraveͳK

Ϳ Decommisioning excl scrap value

ļʅKĠQOoyMK

ĵĸEǑĐG31˞G]

bn

QOoyMD7egrave3Py

ZʗͿ3˥iquestǑĐə

$3regegrave3ƛ˞0Ǖƃ˯ǥǮ3Acircƭ]b

n ĵĸ3ˇɓɛƩ93ĮƘ Returning the land to the natural state

ĵĸ3ɠɛĮƘ3amp3]bn aRZnřpoundamp1ɯɣ

bZjEgraveͳ Scrap value

ǑĐǨ3bZjǺǛ3łČ

EgraveOacute ʳʗaumleumlɥG4bZj

łČ-Gė˃Ɵ3GQOoyM

3ǺǛ ȜģǑĐ]bn Net decommissioning costs

˫ɶ3ʱͳ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

BL0+igraveeacute Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǨszligːǨmO

nKͿ Operational time full load hours excluding derate

szligːǨ4QOoyM

3ſĹƀɯoumlK$3

Śȉaeligouml-ampOacute-G

H4szligːǨ3Ĝ˩-F˩ɩɱ

D7˩ɩń3ʰƾʚɡ3amp3OcircțǨK

ĠszligːǨŅŚamp^P

n1GQOoyM3ɯouml

AŀdivideG szligːǨ3mOn Derate of full load hours

QOoyMʎOslash

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3ǏŊKĠ ȜģǨȜģszligːǨ

Net operational timefull load hours

ǨszligːǨEmO

nKƊampǨ ȜģǨ3Ĝ˩KĠG0J(m

OnKĠGͿ

ˀɥƀǘ Economic life

ƦŚHGaRZn3ˀɥ

ƀǘ3ǴaRZn]

bn3ʱͳKĮĔ0H50

E0Ϳ

AringaRZnKʮʯɥG-

ƦŚHampˀɥƀǘsup21ăccedilʎOslash-

GɛƩ1)ampAaRZn

3ȟœˀɥƀǘ4egraveĠ0 ]bn˩ʙ3amp3˩ɩť

Ǵ Time horizon for cost

LCOE˩ʙ3ť0GǴ _OacuteKTHORNouml0ľĜ4myTn

ˬŚ1DFˀɥƀǘ1ˬŚG

79

calculations

aringm Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ǵ Loan duration

ȽǴ3Ĝ˩ ͰD7eumlőǓƱKĠ

― źľeuml Loan - market interest rate

euml3Oacute43ư1D)

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fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml3ƖEHG Oumleumlɲɞ Return on debt

Ǵ1ȢƀƖEHG

euml ȢƀƖEHGeuml

ƛ˞HGǷeumlɲɞź

ľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivideʙ

KͿ Required return on equity excl market volatility risk adder

QOoyM3ǷƷŞ

ȨGeumlɲɞ Ƿ1Geumlɲ3otildeĜ

źľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivide

ʙ Market volatility risk adder

ʕyenɱźľ1đdivideǷeumlɲɞ

KGdividebZKƵǍG

KɶɱampA3

źľ1GcurrenƦń3ŃuumlbZKʾƬ

Gamp1divideʙGotildeĜ

ƛ˞HGƷǷ3Ȝ

ģeumlɲɞ Net required return on investment equity

ɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZ

nƷŞ93ǷeumlɲɞǷƷ

ŞȨGźľŃuumlƟ3b

ZKĠͿ

Ƿeumlɲɞźľ3ŃuumlƟKʾƬG

ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKƵǍGamp mZ-ɥė ˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ƿ3otildeĜĸUcircǷ3ƯDz

ȖKͿ Equity share excl local equity ownership

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp1ƻaeligGǷ3otilde

Ĝ

ͶǓƾ˙ʹPyʚɡ˺

ʗ3]bnKamp1ƷGǷ3

ʱͳ

Ƿ3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Total equity share

ĸUcirc3Ƿ3ƯDzȖ0E71ʱ

Ʒ]bn ˺]bnK

amp1ƻaeligGǷ3otildeĜ3

Ĝ˩

ĸUcircD7ĸUcircsup2ń3ƷŞNjAEligamp

Ƿ3ʱͳ

Ouml3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Debt share

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp3Ouml3otildeĜ THORNoumlGǷ3otildeĜ1ļ+˩ʙOacute

aRZn3ʱ]bn 100EǷ3otildeĜKƊampOacuteͿ

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate- municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠǘOacute

4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ȝģʌɞ Net tax rate

ǕƃĸǞŵǕƃ3Ȱlaquoʌ

ɞ3Ĝ˩ -˘ʆǕƃźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

80

shy MQ+Q

oacute-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

˛ȐʿNjAEligGʰƾʚ

ɡ]bn Manufacturer-provided maintenance

eacuteƀƄG4$3Ɣ1divide]

bn0-˛ȐʿNjAEligG

ʰƾʚɡ]bn

3]bn4żQOoyM3ˬʹ

]bn1Ġ=HGampeacuteǴ4e1

0G4-G

atildebgjy1DG˩ɩɱ

ʰƾʚɡ]bn Scheduled maintenance by internal staff

aRZnƯDzʿ3bgjy

1DGŚǴɱ0QOoyM

3ʰƾʚɡ]bn

bgjy1DGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

ń^wbŋʢ External service contracts

reg3˻Ȑʿ1DGŚǴɱ0Q

OoyM3ʰƾʚɡ]b

n

˻brvbarȐʿDGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

]bn Operation costs

QOoyM3ɥ1ƛ˞

0ƀ]bn SCADA KĠQOoyM3ƴ˗ɱɥ3amp3]bn-ʚɡ]bn-40

H14ecirc˷ǥͿǘOacuteȥcurren

ɂ3]bnKĠ ɏȏ Inspections

Ͷɏȏ3amp˻ȐʿK

ˇʇ-A˫3^wb˻

Ȑʿ-A0ľĜͿ

gzo3Ľġ2~4ƀȢͿĦ3ƴ˗ɏȏͶ 1 ļampF 2 ƀȢ1 1 ǡͿKĠɏȏ3ǨȂ4kW |b

-ˬŚ ˩ɩń3Icircɡ Unscheduled repairs

˩ɩń3Icircɡʰƾʚɡ ˙ʹ3ǖŇȥɛȯ$3reg3ńį1DG

ʰƾijŚͿũ˩ OampM costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ OampM costs variable subtotal

˫3Ńuumlʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝͳ-˘ ʚɡ Administration

QOoyM3ʚɡ

D7ɴɽ3]bn ʬƈəˇuumlD7ɗǛͿʗKĠ

Igrave Insurance

QOoyM$33

bZD7$3Ɛ1OtildeG

amp1ǓƱƀIgraveǛ

uumlɤIgraveǏŝUgraveuacuteɍ˚UgraveD7ɢĿ

)ampQOoyM1ɷDžEcirc

Gegrave3Igrave

ʡʭǛ Grid charges

ʡʭ93ʡ0E71ɥKǓ

ǎG31ƛ˞HGƀǛ

_4HKş|b3]bn

G4SrY]bnTHORNouml

G-G ʡʭ3]bnijŚͿ Grid costs fixed

˫3ʡʭǛ

ʡʭ3]bnŃuumlŃuumlͿ Grid costs variable

˫3ʬ˺ʛ]bn

^Pn3 Site lease

QOoyMKˬʹampĵ

ĸ3ƯDzʿ1ǓƱʱͳ Ͷ 1 ļ1macrǓƱľĜAʱͳ-ǓƱľĜAʱ]bn-THORNouml

G ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

aRZnşƀ

kWͿ1ļ+aRZnǓƱƀʌͳ

ͼ|b3ʌ4˫3Z`n-ƀ

șŃuuml30ŃǘTHORNoumlG

1ȲƧ-4ş|b3ʌKʆ

$3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG ȸouml Electricity consumption

ouml3ˇŹȸ ʡʭ3ĝǴD7ɯƯ3uumlʗ3amp

_4HEKş|bG4

SrY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ɢĿɂŚ˰Egraveʗ Environmental measurements evaluations etc

QOoyM3˴ė0E7

1KʰƾG31ƛ˞0ƀ

ɢĿɂŚ˰Egrave

_4HEKş|bG4Sr

Y]bnTHORNoumlG-

G

81

reg3ƀ]bnijŚͿũ

˩ Other annual costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚɢĿɂŚǛ

ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ Other annual costs variable subtotal

˫3oumlȸ]bn

ƀ]bnijŚͿ Annual costs fixed

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ƀ]bnŃuumlͿ Annual costs variable

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘

Ts_-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ƀźľđdivide]bn Annal market participation fee

ʕyenɱoumlźľ1đdivideGamp

3ƀ]bn źľɥʿʡʭɥʿ1ǓƱ

ʬ˺Ǚ]bn Balancing costs

ͶoumlɯKěǨ1oumlʡ

ʭ1DžʯGamp3]bnʱͳ

aeligoumlcurrenɂ1Gś3ŀccedil]

bn

kW]bn4ȜƉ0ʬ˺ǙźľKG43]bnouml3źľ

Egraveȉ1Ġ=HGampccedilG3İ

0ľĜAG_4HE3]bn

Kş|b3]bnG4S

rY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ŋʢ]bnĕƊǛʗͿ Contract costs (transaction fees etc)

ŋʢ3ʰƾ1ƛ˞0ƀǓƱͳ kWh-˘ĕƊǛ

reg3]bn3ʱͳ Subtotal other costs

źľđdivide]bnʬ˺Ǚ]b

nŋʢ]bn3Ĝ˩

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKşǦ1GĽ

Ō kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƟʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źľoumlEgraveȉ Market price electricity

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

ƀſĹźľoumlEgraveȉ kWh

źľ˯ǮEgraveȉ Market price certificates

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ3

ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kWhǕʘ1DFG4źľ|b-ˬŚHGľĜGǘOacute4ecirc

THORNoumlG FITĔTHORN Feed-in tariff revenue

FIT1DGĔTHORN ż4aR

Zn]bn3ǓƱ3amp3ŀ

ccedilǓƱŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞK

ʄIgraveG31Auml ouml3źľEgrave

ȉKĠľĜAG

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐKŐampƀƄ1

ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlHG

reg3ĔTHORN3ʱͳ Subtotal other revenues

˫3reg3ĔTHORN3Ĝ˩

Ccedil ― shyocircocirc

shyocirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ʌƊntildedž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as a before-tax credit

ʌƊntilde

3ʌdž1ťGntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊntilde

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGʌ|b3ntildeƱ˚

ugrave3otildeĜHĝ otildeĜaRZ

n3ʱͳoͿG4ˬOtildeşampF

3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ

82

|b3PdlOz4aRZn1

DGʌƊntilde1ɥHGƕ)aR

Zn1ťEgraveOacuteaRZn3eacute

ƀ3˹ʌͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3

ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜaRZnG

G4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3

ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ

4_Ƹ-Gʌdž4Ĵ

ʌ13gtɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ

|-40Ϳ ʌƊƔdž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave AringΆUgraveČͿ Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as an after-tax deduction (eg depreciation)

ʌƊƔ

3ʌdž1ļ+ntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊƔ

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGYacute˖ʌdžH

ĝ otildeĜaRZn3ʱͳoͿ

G4ˬOtildeşampF3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ|b3Pdl

Oz4aRZn1DGʌƊƔ1ɥ

HG3ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜa

RZnGG4aRZn

ƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-G

ˣmiddotʇKƾ4_Ƹ-G

ʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥHGƕ

)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront cash investment subsidy

aRZnszligiquest1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ aRZnƷ]bnʱͳ1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml-3Ƚė˃ ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKǁGamp mZ-ɥė˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

shyl Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

kW-ʆHGƀʌͳ ȢƀǓƱD7ƀșŃuumlGş

|b3ʌͳ FITĔTHORNAringΆɯouml|b3PdlOzͿ Feed-in tariff revenue (eg production based incentives)

FIT G4ɯouml|b3PdlOz1DGĔTHORN

ż4aRZn3]bnK

31˞ȨHGŀccedilǓƱ1

ŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞKdivideampOacute

ouml3źľEgraveȉKdivideGľĜA

G

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐɱɥKŐampƀƄ

1ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǨCcedilœǛiacuteƄKɥ

GĴoPkʗͿ4ƀ3ǘOacuteAring

$HƀK Ś0

AͿKTHORNoumlG FITǕʘǴ Feed-in tariff policy period

FIT G4ɯ˚ugraveǓƱJHGʱǨ

aRZn1ƦŚHGʪȽɱƕŎǴ

K0ʜı3Ǵɮ0H5 FIT3ǓƱ|Aɮ0)Gė˃Ɵ

83

GFIT ǕʘǴ3Ĝ˩OacuteK1THORNoumlG

ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž Production-based before-tax credits

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b30J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊntilde

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊntilde|

b-aRZn1ɥH

G

aRZn3ʌǓƱntilde1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGɯouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿƕ)aRZn1ťEgraveOacuteņaRZneacuteƀ3˹ʌ

ͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteK

ĖGćɜaRZnGG

4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDz

ucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gt

ɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40

Ϳ ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž3ǕʘǴ Production-based before-tax credit policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHGǴ

3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɯ|b3ʌƊƔdž Production-based after- tax deductions

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b0J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊƔ

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊƔ|

b-aRZn1ɥHG

aRZn3ʌǓƱƔ1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKĖGćɜaRZnGG4

aRZnƯDzʿĝƀƄ3ʌdžKDzucirc

1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥ

HGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ɣɤļɵ3džʌƊƔͿ

ǕʘǴ Production-based after- tax deductions policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHG

Ǵ3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power bonus

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKEumlGamp

3ĽŌ kWh

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƄʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWh

źľEgraveȉ˯Ǯ Market price certificates

źľG4Ǖƃ3Ǖʘ1D)

ˬŚHampQOoyM

3aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ

3ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kW_4ɮ0Gźľ-0J(ěʍ3źľEgraveȉ-Ϳłamp3˯

Ǯ3ȼĜdivideſĹźľEgraveȉKTHORNoumlG

divideUgraveČ Accelerated Depreciation

OtildeĦ3ͳK˺middot˩D

7ʌťʘUgraveČG˩ɩ ěƀƄ3UgraveČͳ4ɤ3ˀɥƀǘ3eacuteǴD

FBBƀ|b-eacuteǴƷʱͳ

3ͼˬŚG UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

3m-4_aRZn3

EgraveOacuteKUgraveČGƀƄ$3UgraveČɞKŚʻ

GșƀƄsup2ȢƀȟͳKUgraveČGǞȰK

ɥGĴ-4_UgraveČ˩ɩEgrave

ͳKdegɡȖ˖Auml1D)˟ʏG

dj

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

yacuteYj Financial gap

aRZn3˺1ƛ˞

HGyacuteYj ʱ]bn˺]bnͿEƛ˞

HGǷeumlɲɞ93Ʒ1ƛ˞0ĔTHORN

PdlOzKƊampOacute ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave Levelized electricity generation cost

QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘ

1QOoyM-ɣɤH

amp kWh3ɠķ3ǡſĹ]bn

szlig3]bnKĠƷaumlƷ

ʰƾͿĔTHORNPdlOz˺]

bnĹʗĀĎEgrave4otildeƊɞͶ3ˀɥƀ

ǘKɥ˩ʙ

• 表紙13
• 要旨13
• 目次13
• 第1章 7ヶ国の風力発電の財務コスト13
• 第2章 デンマーク13
• 第3章 ドイツ13
• 第4章 オランダ13
• 第5章 スペイン13
• 第6章 スウェーデン13
• 第7章 スイス13
• 第8章 米国13
• 付録A 変数および用語解説13

ii

F3EH+ amp 268 (IEA Wind Task26)

H6GD13E7

I1C5J

K =

1C5

ĈġĸUgraveuumlk čethIacuteĹİĘĠEacute

aĵĜuumlk agraveecircŬoacutecedilethn

agraveecircŇą~ąŲ2012frac12 11aelig

gtB24

Şiuml CcedilĊ ŰġŮnotmacr Ĭmacrśuml(nŁmacr)ű

eacuteeuml Ű8=X5NĘĠEacuteuml(iexclŪŢxmacr)ű

gmiddot iquest Űparanotmacr notmacrťċsectmacrĘĠĝuml(macrĹ)ű

degď Ũ ŰŢļnotmacr AHSĊcedilmacrśuml(cedilmacr)ű

ecircyenauml

International Energy Agency Wind Implementing Agreement Task 26 ldquoMulti-national Case Study of the Financial Cost of Wind Energyrdquo (March 2011) httpwwwieawindorgindex_page_postingstask26task202620wp20120reportpdf

2ıń+0 ecircyenaumlĈġĸUgraveuumlk Yacute8MZ`_čethIacuteĹİŠĒoacuteograve (NEDO) regłiethotildeelŭĒŬIacuteĹĘĠŠĒŰcurrenĚ_AEligĎIacuteĹĘĠŠĒűaċotildeelŭĒŬcurrenĚAEligĎIacuteĹĘĠŠĒ_IEAiexcl|regnIgraveņsEgrave1+0

iii

`

ƽYjDpǀƽŊƻǁƋij 1h=N=aGKU(divideƖGKUƤƚųugraveƕ133+ƖƭƐƥGKU

4amp(THORNưŊƻƻƬƬǀŊƻƻƬǁĆAEligƃūĤntilde76GKUĵ79

ĪŔampƀ(ƽŊƻograveŊƻGKU9ƄŜ16rtlaquoĨ6GKUĵ7shy^lJE

UĘư9ƟUumlampqIacute6(Ƴ4ƽŊƻdivideƖŷ(ƽŊƻh=N=aGKU96Śszlig

őr^lJEU9ƯEacute67(ƽŊƻ^lJEUƊGKUYacutefrac34ƽƠčĬƸĎ

4amp7qźampƽŊƻƤƚųugraveƕamp(AumlOcircĻĈƕ133+ƩiexclķūĄampGKU

406raquoĖľccedil(61ƽŊƻGKU(shyfrac14ʼn60ĚAgraveplusmn

(ĸ9vegraveampƑ6 ĚœŝŎŋ(7nfrac14ƽŊƻGKUUgraveʼnbrvbarcedil9frac14ƹYjDpħƱ (IEA) ƽIcircċcentIacuteŠ 26

ŘƽŊƻGKUsAEligfrac14zœŝĮƛamp35łƇ66Ěœŝamp(Tm`pE

V=RAhmOK_=mKgtpTmK=KŦfrac14sect6ņlaquoŸTpNƳ476

0(xƶrƽŊƻograve9ocirc6ĴrƽŊƻograveGKUTpN1OcircĆ6Agraveplusmn

7135Hm^j9deg06 Ěœŝ(ĩ 2 ƧĤntildeamp6ƽŊƻGKUģƃ7Ʊ6AEligfrac14ưĮƛĝűĞ

9Ƒ6ĩampshyfrac14zœŝampƱshyfrac14yumlŖƀŋƽŊƻċƊGKU9ĝ6 ĝ(frac14amp3ʼn6ƽŊƻGKU9ƏĎ60xƃĶIacutepoundfrac34šiexclŊƻbrvbar

(LCOE) 9yacute6LCOE(ľIacuteƽŊƻ^lJEUh=N=aampƃ6GKUŴƈ9Łfrac12ampaacuteTHORNưŊƻƻƬampiquest frac34šiexcl6^lJEUthornIacuteƤƚTHORNĆ9Ƙńībrvbar2

Ō(LCOEampdeg0 LCOEƈţĊIJ(6ĚAgraveplusmnĒ(ĩ 2ƀŋƄƇ133+^lpP9ģƏ6

1(ƿĩIWiAƈň^lpP1 1(ƿszligƔCdQIelpĝ^lpP6ĚAgraveplusmnĒĝ(xƔCdQIelpĝ9vegrave6aringĝ(sectƒfrac14ƽŊƻ^lJ

EUampƱ6įưdivideƖIumlƄƇ9ƀ16 ĝ(AhmOYjDpœŝMmNp (ECN) LCOEthornIacute0ampƯŊK^kQVIpUamp

iquest CdQIelpcTj9ņ ECNcTj(sectƒfrac14GKUĤơ9ƽŊƻ^lJEUfrac14divideƖIumlƆĸ4ƀampņƌŭaacuteCdQIelpcTj6ĝ

(shyfrac14ƽŊƻ=mMmSlt]9uumlƵ ECNcTj9ņ135aring LCOEthornIacute(Ɓƭ9aeligAacutereg6 Ɓƭ9aelig LCOEĝűĞ(Ěœŝocircƒfrac14ưŽʼn6 ES-1ampŖƟ5frac14

LCOE(Tm`pE 61fplMWhǀ85VjMWh 61kWhǁ4K=K 120fplMWhǀ167VjMWh 12 kWhǁ6brvbarij1 Ƌij 2

Ƌij 1 qźampČĚņƎ(Ŋƻņƞ~Aringamp12thornƣņǀĀİņƽƙŧuacuteņƽƙUcircŻ

šǁoacuteĬ9 degqĊƽŊƻņƎ( 20 uũ~ƲŊƻņ ldquowind energyrdquo 6ņƎ(ľampćŹrăƺƳ5ƽŊƻƋcost of wind energyrdquo 6ņƎ(ƽŊƻGKUŲqƋ6

brvbarij1 ĹēkpU( 1fplDŽ139Vjƈţ Ƌij 2 ĚćvāţƀŖ(ŶƋŷamp36ƝĹēkpU( 1fpl100ƈţ

iv

ES-1 6CtNA LCOE2008Wl 3

frac34šiexclŊƻbrvbar

(LCOE) fplMWh VjMWh kWh

K=K 120 67 120 AhmO 94 131 94 V=R 85 118 85 K_=m 83 115 83

KgtpTm 67 93 67 Ŧfrac14 65 91 65

Tm`pE 61 85 61

Ɓƭ9aelig LCOE (ŊƻƻƬdivideƖGKUƤƚųugraveƕƖƭƐƥGKUfrac14amp3ʼn60AumlCcedil6yicircƟ5shyfrac14 LCOE acircƼĔ1Ccedil(yĘ76ŊƻƻƬ57(raquoĖƽıH=UƦoslashƽƙƊƈƃcedilampƗcedil6ƻUacuteAacuteĤơiexcl2ƽ

Ŋƻ^lJEUdivideƖiKEucircĊUacuteAacute1ƖĚŋăƖƭƐƥGKU$41CcedilAuml

8 LCOE ampacircƼ6ƽŊƻ^lJEUƤņampƗcedil6GKU(frac14amp3Ccedilʼn1357amp( LCOE 1CcedilacircƼ6ƤƚųugraveƕAgraveplusmnTpNƇƪamp(ijiumleacuteƃ6shyfrac14ư LCOE AumlampƱ6ľccedilŋƃcedilamp(Įƛĝş133+ĚAgraveplusmnĒfrac14zœŝş4ampƌyacute ĔaumlampLOCEƈţēŋ^lpPampťpoundampƜ-6)ƿĩƈňŢIacuteIWiA(ƿszlig

aacuteCdQIelpoacuteIJ(poundŪiexclĊIJ LCOE 9thornIacute6poundŪoacuteIJ(ĎŔƖƭƐƥĘưCdQIelpŰĐŋAumliexcl9icircIacuteampƖƭƐƥoacuteĬqľccedil9ƀ3qźŋ

aacuteŀ9Ʀ635poundŪƿĩƈňIWiAoacuteIJ(6[hbpNĆ9ĔOacuteƳampƌŭ

ŚszligampecircAEligśAEligĥŊƻLCOE9ETHďampĮƛ63amp6aringLCOEshyśƈţ(7ampņĊIJ2ģeuml9ĪŔampő6eacuteƃ5Įƛ133+Ƈƪ(ethƫampžė

Ƌij 3 ƀvāţƀŖ(ŶƋŷamp36ƝĹēkpU( 1fpl100ƈţ

v

v h

` iii

| 1 72NCtE 1

11 1 12 vu]k 1 13 CtO~FH 2 131 GKUƃū 132 copy=mMmSlt] 133 AringƧigrave 134 LCOEcTjƏĎ 135 cTjiquestĚŋGmM^U 136 LCOE FGƈţ 14 IDN6Ct 6 15 QK$4 s 6 16 JN$ZTLCOEIn4 6 17 LCOESNj 8 18 IDNm6Ct 11 19 9 LCOE]k 13 110 LECOEBXqj 13 111 14

| 2 $1+4 16

21 $1+4Ctf 16 211 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 212 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 22 $1+4 2008Wu13Ct) 19 221 ƶrƽŊƻ 222 ĴrƽŊƻ 223 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 224 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 23 $1+4Ct) 25

| 3 amp 28

31 ampCtf 28 311 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 312 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 32 ampu1363m6Ct) 30 321 ƶrƽŊƻ 322 ĴrƽŊƻ

vi

323 V=Rƶr^lJEUǀ2008THORNǁsectĺFpKGKUĮƛ 324 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 325 copy133+ăĂbBXLa 326 ƔDdQ^ 33 34

| 4 -1 36

41 -1Ctf 36 411 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 412 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 42 -1u13Ct) 37 421 ƶrƽŊƻ 422 ĴrƽŊƻ 43 -1Ct)McpY 39 431 AhmOƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ 432 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 433 copyăĂbBXLa 434 ƔDdQ^ 44 41

| 5 1 43

51 1Ctf 43 511 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 512 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 52 1 2008Wu13Ct) 46 521 ƶrƽŊƻ 522 ĴrƽŊƻ 523 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 524 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 525 ƔDdQ^ 53 1Ct) 50

| 6 4$1 52

61 4$1Ctf 52 611 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 612 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 62 4$1u13Ct) 53 621 ƶrƽŊƻ 622 ĴrƽŊƻ 623 KgtpTmƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ 624 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 625 ƔDdQ^ 63 4$1Ct) 57

| 7 60

71 Ctf 59

vii

711 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 712 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 72 u13Ct) 60 721 ƶrƽŊƻ 722 ĴrƽŊƻ 73 Ct)McpY

61

731 GKUĮƛ 732 copyăĂbBXLa 733 ƔDdQ^ 73 63

| 8 N 65

81 NCtf 65 811 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 812 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 82 N 2008Wu13Ct) 66 821 ƶrƽŊƻ 822 ĴrƽŊƻ 823 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 824 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 825 ƔDdQ^ 83 NCt) 73

A Rr 76

viii

L5

ordm 1-1 ƽŊƻGKU ordm 1-2 ƔDdQ^ī6copy=mMmSlt]amp36ŊƻGKUŐĭ ordm 1-3 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14ŊƻƻƬǀƓżĐưǁ9sup2űĞ ordm 1-4 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14divideƖGKU9sup2űĞ ordm 1-5 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14Ƥƚųugraveƕ9sup2űĞ ordm 1-6 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14ƖƭƐƥGKU9sup2űĞ ordm 1-7 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14Ĥntildeƃū9sup2űĞ ordm 1-8 shyfrac14xƃGKU[hbpN LCOEacircƼ ordm 2-1 Tm`pEƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 2-2 TmsectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 2-3 Tm`pEƢŨGKUGKUƨcTj ordm 2-4 Tm`pEcopyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 3-1 V=RTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 3-2 V=RƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 3-3 V=RƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 4-1 AhmOTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 4-2 AhmOsectĺFpKĮƛordm ordm 4-3 AhmOƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 5-1 K_=mTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 5-2 ƅĈƭKCpathornř ordm 5-3 UacuteAacuteA^Igmamp136ĔŮǀUacuteAacuteĠǂAgraveEgraveƭǁ ordm 5-4 ƻyenUacuteAacuteamp136ƽŊƻETHƬǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 5-5 YacuteČƻ^pjĠAumlŀTHORNYacutefrac34ǀ2003Dž2009THORNǁ ordm 5-6 2008THORNampƊŵ7ƽƙH=LƋ ordm 5-7 K_=m133+sectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 5-8 K_=mcopy133+ƽŊƻąŢ=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 6-1 KgtpTmTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 6-2 KgtpTmƽŊƻGKU ordm 6-3 KgtpTmƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 7-1 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 7-2 K=KƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ ordm 7-3 K=KƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 8-1 Ŧfrac14THORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 8-2 Ŧfrac14133+sectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 8-3 Ŧfrac14copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ

ix

5

ƀ ES-1 ƶrƽŊƻfrac14 LCOEǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-1 ƽŊƻ^lJEUƖĚdivideƖGKUƃū ƀ 1-2 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻoumlſŋ[hbpNǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-3 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻƔ[hbpNǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-4 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻ LCOE FGǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-5 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEUoumlſŋ[hbpN ƀ 1-6 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEUƔ[hbpN ƀ 1-7 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEU LCOE133+ FG ƀ 1-8 aacuteŀ LCOEĊIJĮƛ ƀ 2-1 Tm`pEƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (MW) ƀ 2-2 Tm`pEƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW) ƀ 2-3 ƓżĐưampiquest FIT9deg06Z]ƿlpNŏatildeŊƻħETHƬʼn6 4ƽƙŐNtildeŋ

ƀ 2-4 ƓżĐưampiquest FIT9deg0Z]ƿlpNŏatildeŊƻħETHƬʼn6 4ƽƙŐNtildeŋ ƀ 2-5 Tm`pEƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 2-6 Tm`pEƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 2-7 Tm`pEƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ƀ 2-8 2007THORN 2008THORNTm`pEamp136ƽŊƻ LCOE0 ƀ 3-1 V=RŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-2 V=RTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-3 V=RƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 3-4 V=RƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 3-5 V=RƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 3-6 V=RűĞ0 ƀ 4-1 AhmOŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-2 AhmOĪsup2THORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-3 AhmOƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 4-4 AhmOƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 4-5 AhmOƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 4-6 AhmOűĞ0 ƀ 5-1 K_=mŬŜƊŵƬ (GW) ƀ 5-2 K_=mTHORNưOgraveƬ (GW) ƀ 5-3 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 5-4 K_=mƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 5-5 K_=mƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 5-6 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEU0 ƀ 6-1 KgtpTmŬŜƊETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-2 KgtpTmTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-3 Lillgrunden^lJEU ƀ 6-4 KgtpTmƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 6-5 KgtpTmƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 6-6 KgtpTmƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

x

ƀ 6-7 KgtpTműĞ0

ƀ 7-1 K=KŬŜƊETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-2 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-3 ƖƭƐƥGKUƈţ

ƀ 7-4 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 7-5 K=KƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 7-6 K=KƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

ƀ 7-7 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEU0

ƀ 8-1 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-2 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-3 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 8-4 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 8-5 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]

ƀ 8-6 Ŧfrac14űĞ0

1

Aring 1Auml 7Ozuumljfrac14dividearingm-1

11

2009 ƀȚŵĜ (EU) 4Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşKǝamp1 10163 MW divideʟĴ-4 9994 MW Kdivideamp (EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)3 2009ƀ1GˬOtildeş3ŀdivide1DFͶoumlɯ4 EU-4ǰņ3ʟĴ-4ʖ 2frac143ǝamp0Ʌ0)G(EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)ɪɱ1AsectĀɎʥǃaeligethȿĀʂɗǛ3ŘszligIgraveBŘŚAEligʬ3ĪͲ)ampǘ3ɡɦ1DFͶoumlɯ3˞40)G szligɪ-ͶoumlɯɯKŮ-Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bnCcedilɓŝ10)Gė˃

ƟAGͶoumlɯ3ƷŞ4ͶoumlɯƯ3PygP]bn1aRZn3ɯ˩ɩ1ĕF

)ampǨɏEȣɱʄ0ʀ˾Kƾ)GH4ͶoumlɯɯaRZn3ˬOtilde]bnſĹͶKǣ

Ƞ-ʀG-GE-F=ampͶoumlɯ3Ńuumlˊ1Ū0ɗǛ]bnEsectĀɎ

ʥAǃaelig0E-G3D0ijDz3ɚƙG1AͶoumlɯ3]bn463Ĵ3

-AaRZn1=ampěĴņɮ0)FǷʃʐ-43ɏ1ɒɏKƎG

12 frac34frac12sup2

Ƿʃʐ-4ĴSrYȗͶoumlśǟąŚʖ 26ccedilʉmiddot (IEA Wind Task26)Ͷoumlɯ3]bn131ļ+ěĴ3bʃʐKɥ7 Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3ɸ3ĎįKDŽGđdivideĴ4mZoPkUhbPbQRmbPbʟĴ-G Ͷoumlɯ]bn3˟ʏF-4Ʒ]bnʰƾ˺]bnƀɯoumlɯoumlͿ

)ampǘŅ3Ȓƭ˞ʥK˰EgraveHE3]bn3ȵHaRZnǴszligiquest-ŃĀGKDŽGƛ

˞G3aRZn-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnK˷ǥȣGamp3˞0ɂŚćfrac14ĹʗĀɯ

ĎEgrave (LCOE) Kȏ˪ampLCOE 4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3PygP]bn3Ĝ˩OacuteKɠķ1otildeƊƀɯouml1ļ+ĹʗĀampOacute-GLCOE4ɮ0Gˤɏ1ʑ)ampěʍ3ǞȰBưȰKɥ˩ʙG-GǷĽġ-4HE3ˡɏD7Ni3(ș`pU˩ɩȰƄyacuteX

j`yccedilǿȰ3 2KɥG ǷĽġ1Gccedilǿ3ņccedilȤƷŞ3ˡɏEěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnK˰EgraveampA3-

GDFacirciquestɱ1˧5ǷĽġǮ3 LCOE ccedilǿʫȁ4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴatildeƷŞěɥampmǞȰKɥěˇ3aRZn3K˺GbrvbarAring13Ĵecirc3yacute]bnK˘ampA3-GɫƧ

4Ƿʃʐ1Gyacute]bn3ȣ4Ͷoumlɯ3ʇmiddotɱɥ0J(3SrY3eumlɥ1

DFʇmiddotƺG]bnͿK˰EgraveampA3-40-G Ͷoumlɯ3yacute]bn3˩ʙ-4ͶoumlɯaRZn1Gˬʹ˺1ƛ˞HGegrave

3Ǔaelig1GccedilǿʫȁK˘1G3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʣ]bn3˰Egrave1divideěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ

aRZn3ƯDzʿeumlɥ-GĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3PdlOzK˷ǥ˽Ĵ-ɣ G]bn˞ʥ3

KǥE1G ǷĽġǮ-4= LCOE KȒƭG]bn˞ʥKʞć1˷ǥș1ǷaRZn3-ɯHampb

jo`nm1˷ǥGěđdivideĴENjAEligHampmg1ļ+đɔbKŚʻ˽Ĵ1aacute

Gȣ3PnKǥE1GěĴ3ĎEgrave˞ʥKđɔbȣͶoumlɯ3 LCOE 3ŸɮKɣ GĎįKǥE1Gș3dZ`-4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEdegǯɱǞȰKʞć1˷ǥͶouml

ɯ3ĹʗĀĎEgraveK˩ʙGș1đɔb-Śʻamp]bn˞ʥ1ļ+LCOELJŚOacute3K˷ǥɥGǞȰ31D) LCOE ŃJ)GKś˯GǰƔ3ʒ-ěđdivideĴ3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3]bn˞ʥK=˷ǥGsup2ǷĽġǮ3ȑ˞-G

2

13 uumljfrac14divideAElignp[

131 -1UacuteIgrave

Ͷoumlɯ3]bn˞ʥ4ǷƷ]bnʰƾD7˺]bn-GHEě

1ěʍ3]bn˞ʥĠ=HGǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampIuml3]bn˞ʥ4Uograve A1ʆF-G ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ņͳ3ǷƷKƛ˞$3Ȓƭ˞ʥ4Ͷ-0ŅʍŅȓ-G

Ugrave 1-1 1ʆD1Ʒʱͳ3ʢ 75Ͷ3]bn-FȟF4˘1=ampD1ʡʭʡļʅˬʹ0E71ƈˬ1G]bn-GHE3]bn4oPkmZbPˏĴ33m

g1ļ+GǑĐ]bn4aRZnŐǨ1ʄIgrave3]bnKƎeacute3ǷƷ1ĠG

KʻyacutemacrGĴAG

Ugrave 1-1 uumljfrac14divideBL0+ccedilyenccedil-1UacuteIgrave

ʱ]bn1ĈGotildeĜͿ reg3]bn1żĈGotildeĜͿ ͶŶľɀͿ

ʡʭʡ ļʅ

ȥˬOtilde ĵĸ

yacute]bn ƈˬ

]^gn

68-84 2-10 1-9 1-9 1-5 1-5 1-5 1-3

ndashndashndash 35-45 20-25 10-15 5-10 5-10 5-10 5-10

ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

ʰƾ4Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥ-ż4IgraveʚɡD7ŚǴɱIgraveŗɏȏ^wbŋʢ

)ampijŚĠ=HGŃuuml1Ġ=HG34ˊ1˩ɩɱG4˩ɩń3IgraveŗɏȏBĦordfnj3]bnʗ

-GHE3]bn4ƀƄ1D)ɮ0GampaRZnǴK Xj`y3ȵHŚ

Gsup3Ś˟ʏFK˖ŅͶoumlɯaRZn-4ƀ3ɗǛ˞-Fƕ)

ʰƾƀ]bn3ņĄKĈG10G3oumlźľ-4oumlʡʭ^wb1macrɣ Gɑ

ucircouml˚Ugrave]bn03]bnͶoumlɯaRZn-ƛ˞10GľĜG LCOE3ņccedilKĈG3yacute]bn-GͶoumlɯaRZnƈˬ3ļɵ0GyacuteȒ3ʍ͵0E

71macrGOumlD7Ƿ3Ȓƭ˞ʥAĴ1D)˒ɮ0G=amp$H1ťǴƒ-Geumlɲ1

AOumlBǷ3ƷŞ1D)Ž4ż1ņE14ěĴ3ȰlaquoʌȒAͶoumlaRZn1macr

Gyacute]bnʱͳ1ƐG x 1-14Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3˟ʏF1Ġampěʍ3]bn˞ʥƷ]bnƀʰƾyacuteŃǘʗͿ

KʆampA3-GͶoumlɯaRZn3ǰʨɱɣɤə4ouml-GampLCOEKƀɯouml-ĹʗĀGƛ˞Gɯouml4Ͷ3əɡɱɚƙD7ɚŚ3aRZn^Pn3ͶɅ3ɚƙ1ŷęHG

132 s_N3N9A

ouml4ͶoumlɯaRZnƯDzʿłGĩĦ-oumlźľ4Ĵ1D)ɮ0G3aRZn4Ͷ

oumlɯ1G]bn1ɒɏKƎěoumlźľ1GĔTHORNPdlOzK=ampA3-Gɯ

1DGĔTHORN1divideěʍ3PdlOzKAuml)Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKʄś1ĮĔ-GD1GH

E3PdlOz14ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ(FIT)ɣɤ1Ɯ ampʌͳdžaumlɣė˃SrY˯ǮG4reg3VqcG

3

x 1-1 uumljfrac14divide-1 ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

133 icirc

Ͷoumlɯ1Gɶ3Ņ=žĀHEHE4ĔTHORNB]bn3˰Egrave1Ġ0

HE4ɯƴ˗3oacuteșɱƐ1GńƟG4ʇmiddotɱɥ-Gˊ1aumlɣė˃SrY3ƴ˗4

ƕǽĺɅ3ƴ˗1ȣńƟ3Ɛż1Ū0IEA3 ldquoRenewable Energy Costs and Benefits for Society (RECaBS)rdquo aRZn-4ǥƟ3ǞȰKɥƕǽĺɅaumlɣė˃SrYɅKȣɯ3]bnEacuteɲKLJŚG (RECaBs 2007)ReCABS3ǞȰ˼1DH53ccedilǿ14ș3 53ńƟĠ=HG

ȥNtildeŃuumlɁŜucircȁWbɚ1 CO2D7 CH4Ϳ reg3ņȥȩȃɅSOxNOxD7ʠőͿ ʡʭʡoumlPy93divide]bn oumlʬ˺ǙͶ3şZajnˮȲ 41DGȿͳʗͿ

ɗǛAEligʬ3ŘszligIgraveɗǛTHORN3ĴatildeɅ-3degɥ HE3ńƟ1divideͶoumlɯ4ɗǛ3ȸB$H1sup1ɗǛEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ŷęH0Ͷoumlɯƴ˗

93ƷbZ4ĀʂɗǛ1DGɯƴ˗3bZyMPɮ0GHEszlig3ɚƙ1DFͶoumlɯ

ƴ˗reg3ɯƴ˗3EgraveOacuteNjȊ1G˞0ɚƙɣ GǷʃʐ4$3ȣ˰EgraveK˱gtampA3-

40

134 LCOEGKaacute

UhSrYʃʐdg (ECN) AcircƭampXj`ym4ǷaRZn1G

ˮȲ 4 şZajn (capacity credit) ʡʭŘŚƄ1ƤƐK0ʜı-Ͷoumlɯ1D)ƕǽĺɅHʹnj

EHGKʆȣɞAring5 şZajn 303ľĜǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ 1 GW1ťƕǽĺɅK 03GWȿEG-GşZajn1G˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

4

LCOEyacuteYj (FG) 3˟ʏF3ļɵ0)G3 ECNm4otildeƊXj`ym-Ǝeacute4Uh1Gaumlɣė˃SrY3˚ugrave3ɯAEligʬĽŌK˩ʙGamp1AcircƭHampA3

-Gɠķ ECN43mKɥUhǕƃ1ěʍaumlɣė˃SrYƸ˂3ɣɤ]bnK3ʋƄ1ugrave˧GIEAWind Task26KɯŮ-đdivide˽Ĵ3]bnȒK˟ʏAGamp3mKIcircȜƼņͶoumlɯ3]bnKȄ˳ʧ1˩ʙ-Gkamp3mKȒƭ

G34ɯƯ^PcǨszligːǨˀɥƀǘƷ]bnʰƾaRZn3˺

3ɚƙ)ampmĀ3amp3vg0E71Ɓʜ0vg-GěĴD7==0ˠ

iacuteiquestiacute13mKɥ-$3ȗ˃ŅɥƟǔīHGAring5Xj`y

mKǔ˨ͶoumlɯaRZn3ěˠiacuteiquestiacute1ƕ==0ƴ˗ɱyacuteɱvg1ɥ-

GD1amp3D0Ȅ0m4Ʒ]bnʱͳ3˩ʙ3gt0Eěʍ3ɥ3ɚƙByacuteưȠ

0E71ĴQOoyM3PdlOzK˷ǥG-˞-G

135 GK|yenfrac12-N3B

Xj`ybjo`nKɥͶoumlɯ3]bnK˳ʧ1˩ʙG$3szligvgKUograve A1ʆ3bjo`nm4 6 3Z`n-ȒƭHǰeacute3 3 3Z`n4ɚŚ3Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3˩ʙ1ƛ˞0˳ʧƥĽKNjAEligGamp3A3-G ǰeacute3Z`n4ƀșŃuuml3013ŃǘKŚGA3-GH14aRZn3ɚƙƷ]b

nʱͳǑĐ]bnʱͳĎȲ2szligːǨ1ɔEampǨ]bn˩ʙ3˩ɩťǴĠ=HGƷ]b

nǑĐ]bn4ěʍ3Ȓƭ˞ʥ3ʱͳ˘-GH4ś3]bn3Ÿɮ3ŅĴȣ3

amp3ƥĽKNjAEligHG=amp3Z`n1DFPyŃuuml]bnŀK˷ǥGampͿOumleuml

ɲɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞ0E71OumlǷȣɞaRZn1macrGyacutebZKēǧGampͿ)

ampěʍ3yacuteŃǘKŚG-GE13Xj`ym4ĴBŵ3ȰlaquoʌKʾƬampA

3-G ƀșŃuuml13Z`n14ʰƾĸdegʡʭ]bn)ampƀijŚŃuuml-ȒƭHG

ěʍɶĠ=HFHEK˳ccedil͵ěĴ-ȣ-GD1G=amp-ȥǛBʧ

ȪŚ˞įŋʢ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnʗͿKŚʻG ʖ 33Z`nǕʘ13-4ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT)ʌͳdž$3reg3PdlOzKȏ˪G

3m3U`ȿʌ3EacuteɲKaRZn3Xj`y1ŚampFɑiacuteĎȲ31

ampFG-G3THORNoumlvgK$3ș3Z`n1AumlͶoumlɯaRZn3 LCOE Bɯ3yacuteYj (FG) KȪŚGTHORNouml―aeligouml13Z`n4$3ʫȁ3 LCOE FGK˘ampA3-˩ʙ-ɥampŃǘK=Gś3Xj`y3˩ʙ4aRZn3Xj`y

13D7LCOEXj`y13Z`n-˖

136 LCOE FGYacuteEgrave

LCOE FG4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEXj`yK˩ʙampʫȁ-GampĞɶ3ʌƊƔǷeumlɲɞKLCOE FG3otildeƊɞɥGraquo LCOE FG14ě3˩ʙ1ɮ0GXj`y3ȵHKĠGH1sup21ȑ˷G ż3ľĜLCOE3Ľġ14ƷǓaeligƀ]bnȿEgraveUgraveČD7ƸampotildeƊɞAumlJHGƕ)

3Ȃʩgtatilde1G LCOE 3˩ʙOacute4ƷǓaelig3ƾccedilotildeĜszligǴ3otildeƊʌƊƔXj`yʱͳKeȜģɠķEgraveOacute (NPV) G31ƛ˞0ɣɤCcedilœeumlɲŚʻHGLCOE3˩ʙ-4ɯG4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɚecirc1ɥHGPdlOzE3ĔTHORN3Xj`yKʾƬ0

ECN3 LCOE˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

ĎȲ2 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4ǑĐ]bnKaRZnƈʝǴ1ʄIgraveKĴʻyacutemacrGľĜ3gt3]b

nKĠamp ĎȲ3 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4szlig3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKɑiacute13sup3Śamp=Feumlɥė˃0szlig3ȿʌ3ơƣKřszlig1ĖEH

GD0Xj`yăccedil1œķG-G

5

H41ɠķ FG3˩ʙ-4Ͷoumlɯ1ijDz3ɯɱPdlOz3Xj`yfynYacute˖Ʒʌļɵ3ƷugraveƭʗͿKʾƬG3Śʻ1ļ+brvbarś FG1D)ěĴ3 LCOEɯ0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ɱPdlOz1DFśɠHampeumlɲ3K˘G

ECNm3 FG˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

˫3D1ʌƊƔ3ƀXj`y14ouml3łĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3˚ugraveƱƮD7P

dlOzƀʰƾȽeumlƢǓƱ0E71yacuteľ3ȿEgraveUgraveČeumlődž3ʌƊƔͳ

E3Xj`yĠ=HG x 1-24LCOEƖEHampĔTHORNoumlźľĔTHORNFITAEligʬĽŌʗͿPdlOzD7yacuteYj

3EcircKʆampA3-G3IJ1ʆD1FGOacuteȜ3ľĜ4aRZnɯʿ3 LCOEK31ƛ˞0ĔTHORNƖEH0)ampƧģ-F3ľĜ4 LCOE KG3ăccedil0ĔTHORNƖEHampKʆĨG

x 1minus2 aringmH7Bmacrs_N3N9AampgtKQ-1Agravedeg

ʌƊƔ3Xj`yt

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ ndash

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

FG =

1 ndash ʌɞ times ƀʰƾ t ndash ʌɞ times euml t + ʌyacute3ȿEgraveUgraveČ t

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ +

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

LCOE =

6

14 rkzoumlRuumljfrac14divide-1

șʛ-4 Ĵ3aRZn3ǎugraveKGĴatildeƷŞ1)3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKđdivideamp 7Ĵ3Ĵecirc1ʆH14 ECN3mǞȰ˼KɥG˞0Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3ŃǘKŅĴ-ȣG1DFěĴ3ccedilFͶoumlɯaRZn3|bP]bnǥʄ10Geumlɥ

ė˃0mgEHGampȳͶoumlɯ3]bn4˳ʆ0ĽġHamp]bnmg3

Ūǘ3^KĠG

15 vQ5otildeordm

3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnƟ˃0E71yacutemgszligiquest3ȜʄDzucircƟKaeligǽGF˯ǥD

ampmgfb4ŅʍŅȓ-FĽġHampmg34ĴD7mgfb1DFɮ0)G

Aring5ĽġHamp]bn3mg42008 ƀ3ͳ-˘ampɠķEgraveȉK˘G3ŚEgraveȉǥʄ-0brvbarAringAG=ampsup21ǀGvgA2008 ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlaRZnK˘amp3A3-Gś14 2008ƀntilde1ɯȲHǓƱJHampbrvbarAringKĠGė˃ƟGmgEHGampampɉķɱ0ɿɹKIcircȜG-0)ampE1 IEA Task264ěĴ3deg˘ɱ013aRZnK˘KƧIJampA3-GͶoumlɯ3ś3]bn4^PnaRZn1D)ɮ0G

ƕ)sup23mg4ěĴ3szligˊɱɛȯ˷ǥ3amp3gt1ʆampA3-3ɏ1ɫƧ-G

16 tzGKLCOErmicroQ1

Ͷoumlɯ3Ĵecirc3]bnļǷampaRZn-4đɔb13Ĥ8ͿȣHG

3đɔb4ěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3deg˘ɱ0Ȓƭ˞ʥK˘A3-ƴ˗ɱvgaRZn3ɚƙƟ

˃Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bnʰƾʗͿyacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞ

ǴĴ3ʌɞʗͿ3ǞĠ=HGđɔb-4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘKńG=ampͶoumlɯ

KǓǎGĕFʩgt4Ĵ1D)ɮ0GampͶoumlɯǕʘBPdlOzAĠ0ƕ)đɔ

b-4 LCOE3˩ʙʫȁ3gtK˘ʆG Ĵecirc3ƴ˗ɱvgKUgrave 1-21ʆĎȲ4đɔb-43ěvgKszlig3Ĵ1Ga

RZn3ˬOtildeş3divideſĹ˩ʙGđɔb3ƴ˗ɱvg3OacuteA3˘1ʆF

2008 ƀ3ˬOtildeşȣɱņ)ampbQRmʟĴ$HH 98MW85MWͿ-ƄĜņ0)G7 Ĵ- 2008 ƀ1śǟHampdeg˘ɱ0aRZnKŅŪ0FAēǧ-GD1đɔb3divide14Ĵatilde3ʱSrYş-40aRZn3ˬOtildeşKɥGđɔb3aRZ

nȒʝ14==0Ƹ˂G$3ƸĴecirc3 LCOE G4 FG ˩ʙ1ƐG40ɏKƿǐG34˞-GđɔbNjAEligG342008 ƀ3Ĵecirc3ʫȁKȣGamp3ˊɱ0ɏ10 Ugrave 1-3 4Ĵecirc3yacutevgKʆampA3-Gě3yacutevg1szlig3Ĵ3ʼnOacuteKđɔ

b3OacuteɥGYacute1ampD1đɔb3˩ʙOacuteĴecirc3 LCOE B FG 3ʫȁ1ƐG40

ECN m-4otildeƊɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞKɥGǷdivideſĹ]bn (WACC) A3˘1ʆGWACC 4˜ǘ3yacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞĴ3ʌɞͿKyacute]bnszligiquestK˷ǥGćɂŚļɆ1ĠG Ugrave 1-41ĴecircD7đɔb3 LCOE FG3ʫȁKʆ3ʫȁ142008ƀ3 LCOEyacuteYj

3˩ʙʫȁKĠG3ʫȁ4Ĵecirc3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnszligiquestK˘ampʆampA3-G3Ͷ

oumlɯaRZn-Aś3 LCOE4ľƯaRZn1D)ɮ0)G

ĎȲ4 Ugrave 1-33mĀ3sup3Ś3amp3THORNoumlmg43gt-ʆG1ɫƧraquo LCOE FG3ʫȁ4

ʟo3Ǟ-ʆG

7

Ugrave 1-2 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divideOslashfrac12JFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h b

P bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b Ͷ^Pc(MW) ĎȲ5 23 20 30 20 24 20 17 21

Ͷļǘ 7 5 5 15 41 6 50 34 szligːǨ 2695 2260 2200 2150 2600 1750 3066 2628 ƷĎȲ6(eurokW) 1250 1373 1325 1250 1591 1790 1377 1449 ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 00 15 00 00 16 00 00 06 reg3]bn

euroMWhͿ 3 0 10 3 0 0 0 1

ʰƾijŚͿ(euroMWh) 000 4633 3139 000 001 000 860 629

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 12 0 13 20 11 31 5 11

njʰƾʱͳ

(euroMWh) 12 21 28 20 11 31 7 13

đɔb divide 61 38 57 114 366 46 318 NA

Ugrave 1-3 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14dividearingmJFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h bP

bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 55 50 70 50 50 60 50 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 110 95 150 100 120 70 75 100 Oumlyacute3otildeĜͿ 80 70 80 80 87 70 0 80 Ƿ3otildeĜͿ 20 30 20 20 13 30 100 20 ǴƀͿ 13 13 15 15 20 20 15 15 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 250 298 255 300 280 210 389 280

WACCͿ 52 56 60 59 47 49 75 49

Ugrave 1-4 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divide LCOE FGyuml2008Ā

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

bPb 120 (167) oPk 5 (7) Uh 94 (131) ʟĴ ndash1 (ndash1) oPk 85 (118) bPb ndash1 (ndash1) bP 83 (115) Uh ndash3 (ndash4)

bQRm 67 (93) bP ndash3 (ndash4) ʟĴ 65 (91) mZ ndash6 (ndash8)

mZ 61 (85) bQRm ndash8 (ndash11) đɔb 68 (95) đɔb NA

Ugrave 1-41ʆampD1Ĵecirc3 LCOE4bPb3 120MWh167oMWhͿĎȲ7EmZ3 61MWh85oMWhͿ=-Gđɔb3 LCOE4 68MWh95oMWhͿLJŚGěĴ3 LCOE ɮ0)G34Ĵecirc3ɯoumlʰƾǓaeligƷ]bn˺ǞȰ31DGA3-Gș1ěĴ3 LCOE1HE3vgĒltƐKDŽG

ĎȲ5 DF˳Ͷoumlɯ]bnccedilǿ14gɷƑtzſĹͶ)amp˞0vgKĠSrYAElig

ʬ1Gǥʄ0sup3ŚKĠG10G1ʆampLJŚOacute4ǷǮ1ʆampsup2ń3ƴ˗BĴşǦ1ȣ-GD

1ș3ćʣ0shyȓ3gtKʆA3G ĎȲ6 Yacute1ampD1Ʒ]bnD7aRZnƈˬ4 2008ƀ3A3sup3ŚGś14Ʒ]bnͶ3

ɯȲʗͿ14 2008ƀsup2ntilde3ǘŒĠ=HGė˃ƟG ĎȲ7 ɐǯn 1o139-njʙ

8

17 LCOEzoacuteplusmnecirc

ŅĴccedilǿ-4ěĴ1G 43˞0]bnvg3 LCOE93ƐKDŽ)ampĴecirc1 LCOEKLJŚ63]bnvgKĴecirc3Oacute$3reg3vgKđɔb3Oacuteamp3ccedilǿ14

|bPɂŚļɆđɔb3vgOacuteͿȣampĴecirc3THORNoumlvg3ƐKegraveFamp

3ŅĴccedilǿ-ȏ˯amp˞0vg14ɯoumlƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnKĠ

ampș13ʫȁKszlig3Ĵ3-ȣamp AringěĴ3szligːǨ3 LCOE 93ƐKx 1-3 1ʆ3IJ4 3 3ǥʄ0˱bKȣ

ampA3-G=Ɍˎ3Ȍ[y4Yacute1Ugrave 1-4 -ʆampěĴ3 LCOE K˘A3-szligTHORNoumlvgKĴecirc1ʆGș1ʳ4đɔbKʆA3-|bP3 LCOEK 68MWhszligvgKđɔb3OacuteG=ampʲˎ3jn4ȼĜbKʆA3-szligːǨKĴecirc3Oacute

$3reg3vgKđɔb3OacuteG x 1-31-6 4$HHɯouml˫đɔͿƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnK˘G

Ĵecirc3 LCOEɌˎ3Ȍ[yͿđɔb3 LCOEʳͿ43IJ-AŚ˞0]bnvg4ěIJ-ɮ0)FHKV-ccedilFǦʆG

x 1-3 rmicroQ1tzfrac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀkwIumlsect

x 1-4 rmicroQ1tzccedil-1kwIumlsect

9

x 1-5 rmicroQ1tzigraveeacuteETHaeligkwIumlsect

x 1-6 rmicroQ1tzccedilntildeacirciacute-1kwIumlsect

ěĴ3˞0Ͷoumlɯ]bn3vg34sup23D1˷ǥ-GampH1E0Ϳ frac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀăszligːǨ3Ĵ1DG14==0aacuteD7Iumlecirc3˞įƐ

GAring5oPk-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ1D)aRZnɯ4ͶɅ3 Ć1ƹB

EHGmZ-4Ĵatilde3ǵɯ3^PnKɯGntilde1Ͷ3ʹˬ˩1D)Ǡœ3Ͷ

oumlɯ^Pn3ˬOtildeǭǝEumlHGľĜAF$3ʫȁĴatilde3eacuteǴ3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn3

2008ƀ1ˬOtildeǭǝ3ť0)GbPb-4ű3NZdbEHGamp2008ƀ1śǟHampɯaRZn3ǘ4ŚHampA310)GʟĴ14Uumlccedil1ˍō0ͶɅ

KDzGaRZn^PnǘŅGʳ93NZdbeumlɥė˃ɞEHGamp

aRZnɥ^PnȪŚ14FFľĜ1D)4ɯ3aeligoumlƶiacuteKGKƖ00)

GǞbQRm-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ4Ƿʃʐ3reg3Ĵ4ĪͲ10)0Uh-4

FIT3ĽŌ3szligːǨ3ǰņOacute-ȪEHGampǰ0^PnKɯampFǰǝ3ƴ˗KɥampFGyacutePdlOzŪ00)Gė˃ƟG

ccedil-1ăƷ]bn4Ĵ1D)˒ɮ0GmZ-AUh-AszligːǨ1ļ+

ugraveƭ3 FITĽŌͶ3Ƹ1Ɛƕ)aRZn3Ʒ]bn1ƐGmZ-4szligːǨampF3˚ugrave3ͳKǰņ1Gampņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶUacuteYacute

HGǞUh-4˚ugraveKszligːǨ3ʜıatildeGampDF]bn3ŘͶ

10

ƴ˗ˡˡHGmZ-4oumlʡʭ93ʡ]bn)ampͶoumlɯaRZn3

ŨTHORN]bn34aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZn3So_oumlȸʿͿ

ǓƱ)G$3ampmZ3ʡ]bn4Ʒ]bn1Ġ=H0bPo

Pk$3reg33Ĵ-4ʡ]bn$3reg3ʡʭŀƍ]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿǓ

Ʊ)Famp)H4Ʒ]bn1ĠEHGbQRm14Ʒ]bn3ethȿ

ė˃10GD0ćʣĀHampʡʭʡưGoPk-4ͶoumlɯͶɅ3 Ć

1ƼņampʫȁɯbrvbarȐʿ4$3˚UgraveưȠŅ3aRZn-gɷƑ3ņ0ͶK

DFľƯ1ˬʹGKƖ00)GƷ]bn4gɷƑD7tz3ǘOacuteņ

0GͿbPb-4ű3ͶoumlɯaRZnɥ^Pn93NZdb=ampˠ

ȕ3ʪȽKȘGampƷ]bn0)G ʟĴ-4ņˠȕ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥEacuteɲ4ɚ1Ͷ3THORN1EcircFɯȲˠȕ

ņ0G1HEgraveȉotildeƊHG˯ǥHGʟĴ3QOoyM4đɔbD

FAaRZnˠȕņƷ]bnfrac12ampʟĴ3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4ǘotildeƊĖEHG

ơƣGˉģȻ1bQRm-4aRZn3ˠȕņ0)AEgraveȉ3otildeƊ

3ơƣ40H4 2008ƀ3bQRm3ˬʹ]bnmampaRZnşȣŪ0)ampamp-ė˃ƟG

igraveeacuteETHaeligăěĴʆampʰƾ3mg4ʄśƟşǦ1Iacuteͱ-0ǘOacute-G

mZ-4żͶoumlɯaRZn3OumlȖʿ4 5Έ10 ƀ3Ǵɱʰƾ^wbŋʢKƛ˞FH4ƀʢ 25kWĽġHGUh-4ʰƾ14żaRZnszligiquest-Ś3EgraveȉHG^wbŋʢ]bnD7ĸdegĠ=HFĽġH

G]bn45Έ23kWņoPk-Aǰfrac12 5ƀ3řszlig0^wbŋʢƛ˞HGľĜGbPb-4ʰƾ3ʪEHGuacuteNZd`wlO

3ĪͲ0E71Ͷ3ɼȧBcentȵ1D)reg3ĴDFʰƾ0)GʟĴ3

ʰƾ4ƀŨTHORNHampņˠȕ0aRZn-4ſĹfrac120)GD-GʟĴ-4

YN~jZbzoG4ɯȗ3ĦKordfnjGǨǴǣG˯ƻAcedilEHF

ƕ)ĽġHGmg3ʰƾ4ũ˰EgraveHGė˃ƟGoPk-AOtildeĦ3ordfnj

ƛ˞HGampũˠȕaRZn-4ʰƾ0)G=ampoPk4szligiquest3

ʰƾ3˞0Ȓƭ˞ʥͳ0ŚǴɱɠĸˡŤ3]bnĽġHGbQRm

-4ʰƾaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒ɮ0)G ccedilntildeacirciacute-1ăͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bn4ʟĴsup2ń3Ĵ-4ĝʋƄ-Gm

ZoPkUh-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿub`n1ļ+Ͷouml

ɯaRZn3K˺Goumlmiddotʇ-GľĜKż4aRZn$3A31D

)K˺GmZbQRm-4ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˊɱ1frac12

bZ3Ʒȗ˟0H$HaRZn33ȪŚ1ēǧHGʟĴsup2ń33Ĵ-

AaRZn3˺3Oumlȣɞ40)Fż4 60Έ87-G ʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn˺ǞȰ4(E5Aringńɱ-G2008 ƀ14ʟĴ3Ņ3aRZnż1ˇŹǷȣɞ55 100Ϳ-˺HaRZn1ļ+Ouml4lte-)ampH4Ǖƃ3yacute3˚ugraveiacuteƄ3amp-F3iacuteƄ1DFgjZb

SZPlO13ʀEHGSZPlOyMPpbȇƉɯ˖1DGǷ˺Ϳ1ɚĀHampƏƩ

ƞŀampgjZbSZPlOyMPpbUacuteYacuteHampampʟĴ-4regĴDFAǷ]bn

0)G0J(gjZbSZPlO4żOumlDFAͿ=ampʟĴ-4Ouml1D

G˺1D)aRZn3ɅKʄIgraveampb-4aRZn-40Ȱlaquo|-

3OumlK)GľĜ)amp =-3=x 1-31-61ʆamp 43˞0]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥD7ěĴ3 LCOEđɔ

b3 LCOEKx 1-71ʆ

11

x 1-7 rmicroQ1tzordfUacuteIgravekwIumlsect

x 1-8 4˞0]bnŃǘ3 LCOE 93ƐKE1ȣȏ˪Gamp1˞0]bnvgKĴecirc-40[1G3IJ-4ěĴ3]bnŃǘ3ƐD7đɔbȣampěĴ3 LCOE3ņKʆGȌ[y4ěĴ3 LCOE KŀdivideGOacuteKʆʲ3Ȍ[y4đɔbDFAěĴ3 LCOE Kfrac12GOacuteKʆ˞0]bnvgKLCOE đɔbDFŀdivideampʋƄȌ[yͿ3ņ1E1ʆGAring5ɯouml3ǰũŃǘ4bPbĽġampǘOacute-G

3Ĵ3ʰƾƷ]bnDFA LCOE KŀdivideG3ǰfrac12OacuteEǰOacute=-3Ĵecirc3THORNoumlvg3ʜıEɯoumlD7Ʒ]bn LCOE 1ǰAƐampJGH4ˊ1Đ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOEƨƄccedilǿˈG (IEA 2010 Cory and Schwabe 2009)ˉģȻ1ĽġHampʰƾ3ʜı4đɔbȣƷ]bn˺]bnDFA LCOE ŀdivide1ƐG3E ʰƾmg3ʄśƟeumlɥė˃Ɵƕ)THORNoumlvg3Ĵ1DG3ņLCOELJŚOacute3ȜʄƟKEHampA31ampė˃ƟGʰƾ1įGŸɮKȿEampE0Gccedilǿ

ƛ˞-GʾEHG

x 1-8 tzSUacute-1JFQ5 LCOEoslash

12

18 rkzacuteRuumljfrac14divide-1

ECN3m1DF-0ȳ1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯƯ3 LCOEKLJŚG-GraquoɠǨɏ-eumlɥ-GȳaRZn3mg4EHFɚ1Ĵecirc3 LCOE KLJŚG31ƛ˞0THORNoumlŃǘ3řszlig0mgƉGƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ1GĴecirc3 LCOE ȣ4˖)E$3đɔbAˬ0sup23Ugrave 1-5 D7 1-6 1ĽġHG]bn˺3mg3KʆɫƧmZ-4ʡʭ93ʡD7ȷƂz3ƛ˞ƟKʇmiddotɱɥGamp

aRZn3ɯȐʿHKƺ0-G3ccedilǿ-ɥampm4aR

Zn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏ1ʑ)ampA3-GampmZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF1ēǧ0m

Āccedilǿ-4Aumlɥ0)ampHE3ʡʭʡ]bnKĠG-mZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF4

ʢ 3000kW10Gx 1-71HE3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1˟ʏA)amp LCOEyacuteYjKʆ

Ugrave 1-5 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+fOslashfrac12JFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn aRZn3ɛȯ 2007ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF

ʓŶƀ 2007ƀ 2010ƀƔĄ ɚŚH ɯƯ^Pc(MW) 20 23 50

Ͷļǘ 60 90 12 szligːǨ 3350 3800 3700 Ʒ(eurokW) 3315 1883 3230

ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 0 0 0 reg3]bn(euroMWh) 11 0 0 ʰƾijŚͿ

(euroMWh) 149 0 123

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 0 24 0

njʰƾʱͳ(euroMWh) 44 24 33

ˀɥƀǘ 15 25 20

x 1-6 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+faringmJFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 45 65 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 120 112 150 OumlotildeĜͿ 50 26 70 ǷotildeĜͿ 50 74 30 ǴƀͿ 15 13 12 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 255 250 298

WACCͿ 79 92 77

Ugrave 1-7 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+f LCOEthornFG

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

Prinses Amalia 166 (231) oPkˊcurrenɂ NA oPkˊcurrenɂ 156 (217) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 6 (8) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 88 (122) Prinses Amalia 5 (7)

13

19 T LCOEYacuteEgravesup2

LCOE4==0ɶɱuumlȗD7˸ʿ3amp1˩ʙHGˊźȤǕʘȪŚʿƷŞaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿʗě3ɚŚ3qcKɄamp LCOE KeumlɥGamp) LCOE 1AumlJHGưȰ4ȓ-40LCOEK3ʋƄ˳LJŚGG43ʋƄ3sup3Śƛ˞4AumlɥG˩ʙǞȰ1D)==-FH LCOE 3ʫȁ1˒ƐG3ampecirc3 LCOE ˩ʙǞȰK=-3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECNmD7ǞȰťȣsup21˷ǥG Aring5ș˩ɩ`pU-4Ʒ]bn3ɠķOacuteD7ʇmiddotɱotildeƊɞKɥotildeFƊampƀ]bn3ſ

Ĺ1ļ+ćʣĀampdeg˘OacuteKɥ LCOE K˟ʏAGľĜG3Ni-4OumlǷȣɞOumlǷ]bnǴȰlaquoʌ)ampǥʄ0ɅʄIgraveǼacute3sup3Ś0H0$3degJF3ćʣ

0ǞȰ-4otildeƊɞLOacute3gtKɥF$H1D)yacuteưȠ3ɚƙKszlig˘GIEA 3Projected Costs of Generation Electricityrdquo (IEA2010) D7IEA World Energy Outlook 2009rdquo (IEA 2009) 43NiKɥFsup23Ɖ1DF LCOEK˩ʙG

3Ni-4IEA 4otildeƊɞKʇmiddotɱɅ]bn13˘G3]bn4ʇmiddotszligiquestɚŚ

3ƴ˗1ƷG1ƺ]bnK˘ (IEA2010)3ʇmiddotɱ˟ĸEIEA4otildeƊɞ 5Έ10KɥF5KȣɱŘŚɱ0ɢĿ1GOumlyacuteŰ˖bZ3frac12ƷŞeumlɥ-Gɞ1310K˒ʪȽɱƴ˗ɱbZD7EgraveȉbZ1ɷGƷŞ3Ʒ]bn13G (IEA2010)DFćʣĀampș˩ɩ`pU1DFTHORNoumlvg3ǘKǰũ1˳ʧƄ1D)ěʍ3ɯĺ3 LCOE KşǦ1ȣG-G H41 ɯȐʿ4 ECNm3D0Ƅ0Xj`ymKAuml)ɚŚ3aRZn

ě3 LCOE0E71ȜģɠķEgraveOacuteatildeĔɲɞȽǴ)ampreg3yacuteƿȔK˰EgraveG3m1˜ǘ3ƯDzʿ3ǥʄ0˺3ntildeNjǼacuteʌ3Ɛ$3reg3ĔTHORNG4]bn3ƐKĠ

GľĜAGǨ143mKɥegrave3ɉķɱ0]bn3ȵHK˰EgraveampFparaȐ3ɚŚ3

aRZn93ƷKė˃1GeumlɲƖEHGD0SrYEgraveȉKȪŚampFG(Harper et al 2007)3˳ʧ0ǞȰKɥampľĜƷ]bnBƀʪ-0ǘŅ3˞į LCOE 1ƐG10GaRZnƈˬ3ǰʨɱ0ȪŚȖ4ƷŞ1GampͶoumlɯ3ʮʯɱ0ˬʹKė˃1G]bn3OacuteKɡ˥

G14ƷŞ3ˡɏKɡ˥G˞-G Aring3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECN m4ƾccedilƷŞ1ƯŚ3Ƿeumlɲɞ (ROE) KIgrave˯aR

ZnȢ1 LCOEK˰EgraveGamp3Ƅ0Xj`ym-GYacute1ampD1ECN3Xj`ymKE1˳ʧ0A31G-ǷD7OumleumlőKƾ˺ȒKǥʄ1˘-

G=ampͶoumlɯ3]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏE˘-aRZnKGamp

3ĔTHORN3ȵH-ɸȡ0H50E0Ͷoumlɯ]bnK˟ʏG-G

110 LCOEYacuteEgraveocircicedilplusmnecirc

Ugrave 1-8 4otildeƊɞ LCOE ǞȰKȣampA3-GXj`yccedilǿ3ćʣ0ǞȰƄ0ǞȰ3ǞKɥ3otildeƊɞ1 LCOE K˟ʏFreg3egrave3]bnvgKě3đɔb1ɔEŚampE1HEʿ3ǞȰ1D)đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿKɣ GotildeƊɞK˘G

t=1Tsum Ʒ t + ʰƾ t + ɗǛ t + Ɏʥ]bn t + ǑĐ t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

LCOE =

t=1Tsum ɯouml t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

Ϳ

14

ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3ˡɏELdeg˘ɱ0otildeƊɞ4Ȥ3aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿG4ƷŞ3ˡɏ1ʑ

)ampotildeƊɞ3OacuteDFfrac120GtimesğGIEA2010 1DH5ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3otildeƊɞfrac120)Gɡɦ4bZŪǘ3ȤƷŞ-40ǘŅ3IumllaquoƷŞ1ccedilǗHGampɷGbZ˺]bn

Ū00Gamp-G$H1sup1ʇmiddotɱˡɏE3 LCOE 3˟ʏFAȤƷŞ3˟ʏFDFAfrac120Gtimesğ1G

Ugrave 1-8 icedil LCOEsup2plusmnecirc

ǞȰͽˡɏ ˡɏ ˺]

bn3Ʋ ɥ m

otildeƊɞ3

ʜı

otildeƊɞ3ʜı

1G LCOE

đɔb3

LCOEKɣ GotildeƊɞ

ș`pU ˩ɩ3ćʣ˩ʙ

agraveɱʇmiddotɱ ƷŞ3ˡɏ

otildeƊɞ1 ĠG IEA2010 5Έ10

53Έ70MWh

IEA3ǞȰͿ

95 IEA3ǞȰͿ

ƄXj`

yccedilǿ

aRZn ɯbrvbarȐʿG

4ȤƷŞ ǥʄ1Śʻ ECN2008 75Έ15

(ROE) 64Έ76

MWh 10

ECN3ǞȰͿ

reg3szlig3Ńǘ1đɔb3ntildeNjǼacuteKɥ Ƿccedilǿ-ĽġHamp ROE3ʜı1ļ+

Ugrave 1-8 1ʆD1(E3Ni-ALotildeƊɞ3 LCOE Oacute1˒ƐG95otildeƊɞ4ʇmiddot3ˡɏK˘ʞɬ0˩ʙȰKɥđɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿK˩ʙG31ƛ˞0Oacute-Gƕ)Ƿʃʐ3đdivide˽ĴĽġampmg1ļ+0E3otildeƊɞ4ǰņOacute1+4-F

IEA-43ʜıK 5Έ10GH4ʞɬĀampʇmiddotɱ˩ɩǞȰKɥƄXj`yưȰ3ordmOacuteKǥE1ampA3-G 1frac12Ǟ3otildeƊɞNjȊHampŽ3ǰAfrac12OacuteͿˊƷŞ3bK˘amp1ɥEHGƕ)

LCOEK˩ʙG14=ampͶoumlɯ3 LCOEKreg3Ʌ3 LCOEȣG14aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏG4DFƁoumlʡʭ|3ˡɏ3(E1ʑ)GKǥʄ1GėȘ-G

otildeƊɞ3Ƹ4$3ˡɏ1ťƜGdz=LCOEK˘ěʍ3ƉKɥGľĜ4ʑˆGˡɏotildeƊɞ$3reg3vg3OacuteKǥʄ1˥Gƛ˞HG

111 Iumlatilde

IEAWind Task263ʫȁELCOEĴ1D)ņɮ0)GJG33ƄĜ4ɯoumlƷɥ˺)ampě]bn3Ɛ1DGA3HGcurrenƦFĴŞ3 LCOE3Ÿɮ1ǰAƐamp34Ƿɱ0ͶȯG4Ͷ3ƴ˗shyȓ1ļ+currenɂHGɯouml-G=amp

ǷɱǓaeligD7ͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ǽacuteņɮ0GEźľoumlAͶoumlɯ3]bnszligiquest

1˒ƐGE1ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾAěĴ-˒ɮ0FH LCOE 1ņ1Ɛamp 63ɂŚļɆ-SrY3]bnszligˊK˘ LCOE 3Ɵ4ĴBɶɱ˸ʿ$3reg3eumlɥʿ3

-ćʣ0ȣ-GD1ƝJHGLCOE3ěʍ3˩ʙ3ˡɏE3D10HampKȜʄ1ɡ˥Gƛ˞GLCOE4ɪaacute-Aordfnjė˃0˩ʙ-A0IɚŚ3qc1ɥHGDzɲ-Eacuteeuml0k-Gƕ)ȣD7$3ʫȁ3˥14ɫƧGdz=

rOtildemiddot

Cory and Schwabe 2010 ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financial Variablesrdquo httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2009) ldquoThe Economics of Wind Energy A Report by the European Wind

15

Energy Associationrdquo March 2009 Available at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentspublicationsreportsEconomics_of _Wind_Main_Report_FINAL-lrpdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2010) ldquoWind in Power 2009 European Statisticsrdquo The European Wind Energy Association February 2010 Accessed at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentsstatistics100401_General_Stats_20 09pdf

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review and Comparative Analysisrdquo Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 Accessed at httpeetdlblgoveaempreports63434pdf

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2006) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2006rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2006weo2006pdf

IEA (2008) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2008rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2008weo2008pdf

IEA (2009) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2009rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgWbookshopaddaspxid=388

IEA (2010) ldquoProjected Costs of Generating Electricityrdquo 2010 Edition Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgpublicationsfree_new_DescaspPUBS_ID=2207

RECaBs (2007) ldquoRECaBs Interactive Renewable Energy Calculatorrdquo Renewable Energy Calculator Accessed August 2010 at httpwwwrecabsorg

Wiser R Bolinger M (2010) ldquo2009 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy August 2010 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs2009_wind_technologies_market_reportpdf

16

Aring 2Auml NDQ+

21 NDQ+uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ȑ˞0E71]bn3ɚƙKG-

4 2008 ƀ3D7ȳͶoumlɯƴ˗1GĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1ɒɏKƎG

211 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

2008ƀǶ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ĝ˩ 3179MW 2756MWȳ 423MWͿ-H4 2007ƀǶ3ˬOtildeş1ťʢ 1252000ƀ3ˬOtildeşDFA 32ŀdivideG2001ƀE 2008ƀ=-1ŀdivideampˬOtildeş3ʢĄǘ4ȳͶoumlɯ1DGA3-G2008 ƀ1ȳ-ƈˬ3ȳQOoyM4 3F(64 2009ƀ1řƭA64 2010ƀʈ1ŐGcurrenŚ-GˮȲ 5 x 2-1 1ʆD1ŨTHORN3Ƅ4Ǵ15EņJG2001ƀE 2003ƀ1

ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 725MW ŀdivideamp2004 ƀE 2007 ƀ=-4 8MW ŀdivideamp10H4 2003 ƀ1śǟHampaRZn3ǕɱǓǎ˩ɩņŽ1ȿͳHampʫȁ-GHK˚amp1 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampǝamp0ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFͶ3ƈˬǝamp1ȲɶHG10)amp2008ƀ3 FITŨTHORNƔ2010ƀ 7DZǶ=-1Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 280MWŀdivideG (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ1D)mZ3ʱoumlȸ3ʢ 20AEligʬHG

x 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

ˮȲ 5 Roslashdsand IIȳͶoumlɯƯ4 2010ƀ 8DZ1ŐG

17

mZ4ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ƀșɶȔKŚ0EU 3˞Ȩ1DH5mZ4 2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯ-ʱSrYȸ3 30Kamp3˩ɩKʘŚ0H50E0EU-4szlig3divideɳĴ13aumlɣė˃SrY3ɶȔOacuteKƭGamp3˖uuml˩ɩ3AcircƭKʻyacutemacrFm

Z4 2010ƀ 6DZ1Ĵ3˖uuml˩ɩKɯ˘G3˩ɩ-42020ƀ=-1ˬOtildeşKʢ 4 GW$H1D)Ͷoumlɯ4 11000 GWh10GcurrenƦHG=ampʱş3 3ccedil3 1D7ouml3ʢ 50Kȳ1ˬʹGͶEƖGcurrenƦHG (Kemin 2010)(0gt12009ƀ3ɯouml4ʢ 6700 MWh-G2010 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3currenɂ4ěȚŵdivideɳĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010) ʁǴɶȔ2008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MW3divide0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ˬ

Otildeş 350 MW3ǝˬŚEHG3ɶȔOacute3Ąccedil4Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ1D)ƭA3-$H1D)ʦʏş4 175 MWŀdivideG10GĸǞ3˩ɩƎŬ42012ƀ=-1 350MW1divideş 150 MWKdivideGamp3˩ɩKˠŚ0H50E0 ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MWKdivideGʁǴɶȔ433ņˠȕ0ȳͶoumlɯƯ0J( Horns

Rev II209 MW2009ƀ 9DZŐͿRoslashdsand II207 MW2010ƀʈʓŶcurrenŚͿAnholt400 MW2012ƀ12DZʓŶcurrenŚͿ1DFƭHG˟gt-G

Ugrave 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

1761 2358 2464 2697 2708 2716 2720 2728 2717 2756 2985 2621

ȳ 11 50 50 210 423 423 423 423 423 423 856 1339

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 2-2 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

176 1 597 106 183 12 8 4 8 ndash11 39 ndash38 ndash135

ȳ 11 39 0 210 223 0 0 0 0 0 100 ndash14

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

212 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1iacuteŚHampaumlɣė˃SrYȰ1DFͶoumlɯaRZn3ǝamp0ĽiacuteƄŨTHORNHampǝamp03ͶoumlɯaRZnD7UoN13ȳaRZnĎȲ8-4HAszligːǨ

22000Ǩ1igraveG=-bjnźľEgraveȉ1divide 025mZZrkW0034kW ĎȲ9 0047okWͿ3ugraveƭNjAEligHGĎȲ10szligːǨ˫3Ǩ1igraveampƔ4źľEgraveȉKĖĕG10

G Ͷ1ť4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥƀǘ3Ǵ ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3˚ugraveƀ 0023mZ

ZrkW00037kW 0005okWͿ˚ugraveHG

ĎȲ8 UoNaRZn134ȳͶoumlɯƯ3THORNǸư4ecirc1ƈˬHGȳͶoumlɯƯ3aRZn

ŚʻHG13ȳͶoumlɯƯUoNɧ˻db1DFƈˬHG ĎȲ9 17353mZZr ĎȲ10 ɠ˖3Egraveȉ˚ugraveiacuteƄ4ͶoumlɯaRZn93ugraveƭK 1 kWampF 010mZZr0013Ϳamp

[1degJ)ŨTHORNHampA3-G

18

ˊɱ1mZ-4ͶszligːǨ- 22000Ǩ3ɯK˖147ƀE 10ƀGAring5 3 MWͶKˬʹGH5FIT4ș3D1ȪŚHGĎȲ11

3 MWͶszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 3000 kWh

3000 kWh times 22000 = 66 GWh FITʬ˺Ǚ˚ugrave43 MWͶ 66 GWhɯG=-3ǴǓƱJHG3Oacute4ș3D10G

(66 GWh times 025Zr) + (66 GWh times 0023Zr) = 18064200Zr

Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4ʽǹĀampͶKǑĐGǝˠ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1A

ɥHG3ͳ4ǑĐHampˬOtildeş3 2ETHKɣɤGamp3szligːǨ 12000Ǩ1ť 008mZZrkW001kW 00139okWͿ-GAring5 225 kW3ͶKTHORNǝˠ3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn1D)ǑĐGľĜˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugraveK˩ʙGsup23D10G

225 kW times 2ļszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 450 kWh

450 kWh times 12000 = 54 GW

ǑĐamp 225 kWͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4

54 GWh times 008Zr = 432000Zr 3˚ugraveɥHG34450 kWǵɄ3ͶKǑĐGľĜ1EHG3˚ugrave3ơƣKĖGamp

3ǝˠaRZn-ǑĐGͶ3ǘ1iacuteˬEHGJ-403˚ugraveɥHG34

450 kWǵɄ3ͶK˩ 175 MWKǑĐGľĜ1EHG szligːǨ1ļ+ FIT-4Ś3 kWh3ɯǨ-40ˊ1tzgɷƑņͶD

FAņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶ93ƷUacuteHGAring5 3 MW 3ɯȗ3szligːǨampFɯouml (kWh) 415 MWͶ3 2ETH-ƕ)ĖĕG˚ugrave3ͳAETH10G ș1ʆUgrave 2-3D7 2-44FITͶoumlaRZn1GͶ3Ƹ1ĒltƐKʆampA3-3

Aring4ś3aRZn1ļ+G

Ugrave 2-3 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITuh AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave[]psup312

ɯȗ3

ˠȕ

MWͿ

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ ouml

MWhͿ

Ͷ 1ļampF3aRZn]bn

(DKK)

oumlłͳ (DKK)

ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 223 098 30 90 90 7497 23430 5250 224 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 223 098 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 227 100

(Nielsen et al 2010)

ĎȲ11 3Aring4reg3Ĵ3ʒ14Ġ=H0ampmZZr-ĽġG ĎȲ12 ĝ

19

Ugrave 2-4 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITu AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave]

ɯȗ

^Pc(MW)

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ

ouml (MWh)

Ͷ 1ļampF3aR

Zn]bn

(DKK)

ouml łͳ(DKK)

˚ugrave

(DKK) ʱĔTHORN

(DKK) ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 1650 6610 298 100 30 90 90 7497 2343 5250 1650 6900 295 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 1650 8920 273 092 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 990 5220 281 094

(Nielsen et al 2010)

˫3AringEņĺ3gg1ƷGDFAņĺ3ɯȗ1ƷGǞszligːǨ1ļ+

FIT 3ơƣKĖBJGUgrave 2-3 1ʆHGD1ǰAʪȽucircɞ3ˍͶ4ņĺgKOtildeamp 18 MW3ȣɱũĺ3Ͷ-GH4szlig3Ͷ-Ś3ɯouml kWhKļ1ampľĜ3 FIT1AƎ4=GUgrave 2-4 EszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT E3divideɱĔTHORNƖEHB34gɷƑũtzfrac12 3 MW3ɯȗ-Fȣɱũĺ3ɯȗ4 3frac141ˑ(GJG

FIT3ļɆszligːǨKɥGjn4currenˠŚHampˬOtildeşKƭGamp1ˬʹHGͶ3ǘŪ00G-G=ampH1DFgɷƑtz3OacuteKGjnAŪ00G

HE 2 3ʹ˩ɩKʘŚaRZnKĸUcirc-ĖTHORNHAE1ĪͲ0GľĜGszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT 4mZ3ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ʁǴɱɶȔOacute)ampˬOtildeş1ļ+ǕʘɱɶȔOacuteƭHGD1Gamp3A3-G szligːǨK FIT 3ļɆG3mjn4˚ugrave1DFźľ3ȝgtɣ GampǰAʪȽɱucircɞ

3ˍͶƛAaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ1)ǰAͺoumlɱ0gw-400G-G

$3ampǰʨɱ14Ͷoumlɯreg3ɅDFA10F20mZ-43ƏƉ3 FIT AumlJHGampɯoumlKļɆampɶȔOacuteƭ1G]bn0Gʫȁ0G

22 NDQ+ 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-4mZ1G 2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKG-ɥampmg42008 ƀ1˩ɩG4śǟHampaRZn3ſĹOacute1ļ+A3-GͶ93Ʒ]bn4^Pn3Ǽacute1DFŚ-40mZ-4ɯ]bnȣɱŚGD-GˬOtildeş MWampF3Ʒ]bn14ǰņ- 503GeacuteƀƄ3ɯouml MWh ampFƷ]bn3Ńuumlɞ4 15ǵɄ-G

221 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para mZ3ͶoumlɯaRZ-n4ˊ1Ū0Ͷǘ3Έ12ļͿ3ͶʺKɥG˩ɩW

PoP-4Ū0A 3ļ3ͶKɷʳɛG4ʵB0ŔKNJD1=ʹGGH4ͶK 1 ļccedilǗɱ1ʹGˡˢɱĉƋ0GE-GmZ14ņˠȕQOoyM3AringGbPBʟĴņ0A3-40ǰņˠȕ3b4Ͷ 20ļKˬʹGʱş 63 MWͿ

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹŚȉş4 19 MW-F$3gɷƑ4 80 mtz4 72 m-G2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ-ǰAˊɱ034 23 MW3Ͷ-F$3tz4 80 mgɷƑ4 93 m-G

(b) BL0+Ouml mZ3Ͷğ4ˊ1˝ğ-GampͶ3^PnɡƦɱ034āȷȮų10G

20

ˊɱ1ͶɅ4ǾŪ00)GȮųĸŻ$3Ģ-4ƀſĹͶ 7 msKGH4 2 MWͶtz 80 mͿ1ļ1ťszligːǨʢ 2500Ǩ1ɸƎG(Danish Energy Agency 2010)2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3 2009ƀƄ3szligːǨ4ſĹ 2639Ǩ-)amp2009ƀ3mZ3ͶɅ4żƀ3 88-2008 ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3szligːǨ4szligˀɥƀǘſĹ-ʢ 3000 Ǩ10GcurrenƦHGɫƧszligːǨ3LJŚOacute4mZszligiquest3ͶɅl`1GA3-402008ƀ1ˬʹH2009ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+˩ʙampA3-G

(c) ccedil-1 2008ƀƄ3deg˘ɱ0aRZnƷ]bn141100kW1529okWͿE 1300kW1807

okWͿ=-F$3ſĹ4 1250 kW1738 okWͿ-GEgraveȉ4 2008 ƀ1xZ1ampƔ2009ƀ 2010ƀ1ņŽ1frac12GɚƙG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ1GͶ3ʰƾ4IgraveIcircɡ^wbŋʢĸdegĵĸʚɡ3 4 ɶ-ȒƭH

GHE3ɶ$HHͶoumlɯƯ3ɣȹʰƾ3ʢ 25KĈG2008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlɯaRZn1currenƦHGɣȹʰƾ412MWh17oMWhͿ-G (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m4ƀ|b3Ouml 80-K˺GaRZnKɥGmZ1GȤ

ƯDz3Ͷ4ˊ1ƎƅOgraveŋʢ1DFK˺Gegrave3ĔTHORNKƎƅOgraveŋʢ1Ʒ FͶ

3ƯDzʿ43ļKɷDžeumlɥG-0Ʒ1ťGeumlɊ93ǓaeligǓƱ4szligOumlȖʿ3Ƴ˴

ʻyacutemacrEHG mZ3ɡƦɱ0aRZn4100Ouml-K˺GaRZn-Gż3aRZ

n-4Ouml1DG˺3otildeĜʢ 800)GͶoumlɯaRZn1ťGOgraveTHORNĮĔǴĖTHORNHė˃034 15ƀsup2atilde-G

2008 ƀƄ3ƎƅOgraveŋʢ3eumlő4ʢ 5ͼ-H4 5 ƀijŚHGͶoumlɯaRZn4reg3ƷȗɱbrvbarȐȣȵuumlƟ˟0HGampˊ1eumlőfrac120)GͶoumlɯaRZ

n3bZ˞įKʚɡ-Gegrave0ưȠGEͶ93Ʒ4bZfrac12˟0HG mZ1GǝˠaRZn3ľĜʣɤɞ4ż 9Έ11-G3amp 5~73bZ

Nė˃10G3EA1983ƀE 2002ƀ=-3mZ˯icircȇƉĕƊƯ3 OMX203bZNſĹ 72)amp3ȣͶoumlɯaRZn3bZȣɱfrac12JGĎȲ13 (Saabye 2003)

(f) s_N3N9A Ͷ30ĔTHORNɅ4NordPool źľK 3oumlłFIT Ə-3Egraveȉ˚ugrave-Gʬ˺

ǙbrvbarȐʿ3Ͷ3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢK 5ƀ=-ƇG-GĎȲ14HE3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢ4 Nord Pool3Yacuteəźľ1Ɇ ʴʫHG

(g) Q54Q1 mg4 Economy of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ1

ļ+A3-G

222 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para 2008 ƀ1mZ-ŐampȳaRZn40HA˩ɩG4ƈˬȠ1GȳQ

OoyMɯ4ˊ1Ǖƃ3˴ėKƖEHG10G3˴ė4THORNǸʋKEHG

A3-szligːǨ 50000Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml kWhampF3THORNǸ1ťǰfrac12Egraveȉ3A31˴ė

ĎȲ13 Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark ĎȲ14 10ƀijŚEgraveȉKNjAEligGǝˠ3ɯAɰľG

21

aeligHG10GHornz Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand I amp II4THORNǸʋKʪśɠampaRZn-GAnholt3ǝȳQOoyM3THORNǸǴ4 2010ƀ 6DZ1ʨpoundG$3ˬOtildeş4 400 MW-2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-1KŐG10G UoN13ǞƉĎȲ15QOoyMA˴ėHGUoNǞƉQOoyM3ˬʹlaquo

ƖEHH5Ͷ1Aĝ PdlOz[ɥHG10Gɠķ=-1 2 3UoNǞƉ3QOoyMƈˬHG

(b) ccedil-1 mZ1GȳQOoyMɯbrvbarȐʿ3Ʒ]bn4˴ėiacute3THORNǸʋKʪampʢ 200 MW3

ņˠȕQOoyM1ťʢ 2700Έ3000kW3753Έ4170okWͿ-G ȳQOoyMKĴatilde3oumlʡʭȳŃĶˬOtilde1ʡGamp3]bn4mZ-4Ĵƺ

GampaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷʱͳŪ00)GɢĿƐ˰Egravebrvbarntilde3ȷƂĸ˰Egrave3]

bnAĴƺG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳQOoyM3ʰƾ4ʭ˩mgEHF=ampȳQOoyMɥʪǬʳ

ƞthornKƭGamp1ʄśƟmZ3ņˠȕȳQOoyM3ɣȹʰƾ4ĸ

Ļ3ɛȯ1DF 18MWh25oMWhͿE 20MWh28oMWhͿ=-G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mZ3ņˠȕQOoyM3˺4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ȪʙǴszligiquest1ɀ)˖JH

GsmOjZƷ˖E3OgraveTHORN˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM1eumlɥHGraquoH4

aRZn93˺Ə-˖JHGJ-40Ϳ˴ ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4ż 50ƍ3Ƿȣɞ-˺HG mZ3oumlmiddotʇ3Ƿ]bn4ʢ 112ͼ Ouml]bn4 4555˩ʙHG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) s_N3N9A ˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml3ijŚEgraveȉKĖĕ)

GijŚEgraveȉ4THORNǸdb-ȪŚHGTHORNǸEgraveȉ4˺ǙHampƿȔ-40szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ĔTHORN Nord PooloumlĕƊ-3ł-ƖEHampƔ1ȪŚHGHorns Rev II3ˑǸEgraveȉ4 0069kWh0096okWhͿRoslashdsand II4 0085kWh0118o kWhͿ-GźľEgraveȉ1ťGEgraveȉ˚ugrave4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿTHORNǸEgraveȉ1Ɯ NjAEligGźľEgraveȉTHORNǸEgraveȉDFľĜQOoyM

Eʡʭɥʿ1ŸͳKǓƱJ250E0 ˴ėiacute-0G4UoN13ǞƉ3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 22000 Ǩ1G

=- 0034kWh0047okWhͿD7Ͷeumlɥ-Greg3˚ugraveKĖĕG

(f) Q54Q1 Horns Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand II3ƈˬ]bnʱͳ1Gmg4eumlɥė˃0agraveɱƥĽmZ3ȳ

QOoyMɯ3ŦŞD7ȳQOoyMƯDzʿ0E71ȳQOoyM3˺

ʿ93ˁĕF˺ȆE1THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙEƖampA3-G

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacute3ȑ˞-G

ĎȲ15 UoN13aRZn4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3THORNǸʋKʪ1˖JHGȳƈˬaRZnŚ

ʻHG3 23QOoyM1divide13ȳɯƯUoNɧ˻db1D)ƈˬHG

22

Ugrave 2-5 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ16

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ17 ȳ

2008ƀĎȲ18 ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 23 23 23 Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 3 91 90 ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2700 4300 3865

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 25 25 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1250 2844 3000

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash (1738) (3953) (4170) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 12 (17) 20 (28) 18 (25) $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 3 (4) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆ Economics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010

Ugrave 2-6 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 50 55 45 Ƿeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 110 112 112 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 80 45 26 Ƿ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 20 66 74

WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 52 88 95 Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 13 10 13 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 25 25 25

FXn $US 139 139 139 FXn DKK ndashndashndash 7353 ndashndashndash 7353

ǛΆEconomics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aeligIacuteɥļ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ

Ugrave 2-7 NDQ+uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 447 (621) 28 (39) 447 (621) źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 37 (51) 70 (97) 85 (118) FITǕʘǴ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 22000 50000 50000 ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

LVRT ˮȲ 6ĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ǛΆNielsen et al 2010 Danish Energy Agency 2008 Danish Energy Agency 2009 ĎȲ16 2007ƀ14mZ-ǝamp1ƈˬHampͶ40)amp ĎȲ17 2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ȳ1Ͷ4ƈˬH0)ampȳQOoyM 3ƈˬG4˩ɩȠ1)amp

$3( 24Ǖƃ3˴ė˩ɩ1ļ+A3-ȟF64UoN13aRZn-)ampHorns Rev II3ǰʨɱ0Ʒ3ȪŚ4 2007ƀ10Hampamp3ǘŒ4 Horns Rev II3LJŚ]bn1ļ+GRoslashdsand II3ƷȪŚ4 2008ƀ10H$Hĝƀ3]bn3Ȉƻ0)G

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23

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24

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25

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26

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2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

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rOtildemiddot

Danish Wind Industry Association httpwindpowerorgenknowledgestatisticsthe_danish_markethtml September 2010 (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)

Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2007 2008 (Danish Energy Agency 2008) Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2008 2009 (Danish Energy Agency 2009)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Ministry of Climate and Energy National handlingsplan for vedvarende energi i Danmark 2010 (In English National Action

ĎȲ21 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampĔɲʱͳͶoumlɯǕʘͽPdlO

zD7yacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜAG

27

Plan for RE in Denmark) (Kemin 2010)

Nielsen et al Economy of Wind Turbines 2010 EUDP (Nielsen et al 2010) (Original title Vindmoslashllers Oslashkonomi)

Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark (Saabye 2003)

28

Aring 3Auml lt8

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ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

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29

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312 s_CcedilN3N9A

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30

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ʰƾ4 2007ƀ1 4571kW635okWͿ-2008ƀ4 4633kW644okWͿ-)amp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m1LǷɞ4 30Oumlɞ4 70)ampźɨǻ3đdivide4ƦŚ0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ

Oumleumlɲɞ4$HH 9555-)ampUacuteɱ0 FIT 1D)ʡʭ93NZdbIgrave˯HF=amp FITE3ŚͳǓƱAIgrave˯HGampĔTHORN3bZ˰Egravefrac120F$3ʫȁeumlAfrac120)G

31

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ĔTHORN4SrY3 FITD7GǛEƖEHG2007ƀ1ƈˬHampaRZn3ĽŌ4 819

MWh11384 oMWhͿ-ļǷǛ4 518 MWh72 oMWhͿ-GaRZn^Pn31ļ+3ĽŌiacuteƄ4 183ƀɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 mg4 EEG (2004) DEWI Magazine Nos 32 (2008) and 34 (2009) D7 Deutsche WindGuard GmbH ZSW3

amp1Acircƭamp EEG(2008)3Ɔț1GʉŕɱĽġǮEƖampȰlaquoʌ3Oacute4 Destatis (2009)1ļ+

322 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

sup23ƥĽ42008ƀsup21ƈˬHGcurrenŚ3ȳQOoyM1ļ+A3-G

(a) BL0+para ȳaRZn1DFȳ1ˬʹampͶ 12ļ3ˬOtildeşEʦ˩- 60 MWKɯ-GƦŚ

G3aRZn^Pn4 Borkum1G East FrisianŴ3ʢ 40 kmȫĜ3āȷ1frac14ʹȦȻʢ 30 m-G3ȷųE3ȦȻ3ʪȽɱEacuteɲKƖGamp14Śȉaeligoumlʢ 5 MW3ȳͶƛ˞10G3^Pn3szligːǨ4 3700Ǩ10GcurrenƦHG

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3ȳQOoyMKEHampľƯ1D7ȻȦĻ1ƈˬGamp3Ʒ]bn4ɪ

ſĹDFA3230kW 4490okWͿ3]bn3atildeˮ4ͶļʅŃƯzʗ-Gʡʭ93ʡ4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿ3micro-GampaRZn3Ʒ]bn14ʡʭ93

ʡ]bn4Ġ=H0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳͶoumlɯ3ʰƾ43ʰƾDFA˒0)GȷųEHG-

ǷĵEȳ3Ͷ=-3əlaquoħ3]bn0GE1ʰƾ14atildeD7ń3bgj

y3laquoacuteD7ƛ˞0ˡŤBIgraveʪȽʚɡBƴ˗ʚɡˌˋordf3ɴˡ)amp]bnĠ=HGoP

k3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ƀʰƾ4123kW171okWͿ10GcurrenƦHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȳ3aRZn3ƷŞ143ľĜDFAeumlɲɞƛ˞10Gȳ3Ƿeumlɲɞ12ͿA

Oumleumlɲɞ65ͿA3ľĜDFA0GOumlǷȣɞ7ť 3Ϳ4ƦŚHampaRZnȣŚ-Gś14aRZn3˺Ȓ1D)Ū)GAring5aRZnˇ

iquest-G4ub`n1DF˺G0Ϳė˃ƟAG

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ȳͶoumlɯ3ouml4EEG3 FIT1D)ƱƮHGƦŚampm1˧5EEG20041ļ+

otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 91 MWh127 oMWhļǷǛ4 619 MWh860 oMWhͿ-G3ampotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4ȷųE3aRZn^Pn30E71ȦȻ1ļ+ 145 ƀǓƱJHG10G

(f) Q54Q1 mg4 EEG(2004)D7 Deutsche WindGuard GmbH ZSW3amp1Acircƭamp EEG(2008) Ɔț1Gʉŕ

ɱĽġǮ1ļ+

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 3-354sup21G LCOEccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacuteK˘

32

Ugrave 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 2 2 NA 5 Ͷļǘ ļ 5 5 NA 12 ɯ szligːǨ 2260 2260 NA 3700

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA 20 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1259 (1750) 1373 (1908) NA 3230 (4490)

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 4571 (635) 4633 (644) NA 123 (171) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 149 (207) 152 (211) NA ndashndashndash $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

Ugrave 3-4 lt8uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 55 55 NA 65

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 95 95 NA 120 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 70 70 NA 70

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 30 30 NA 30 WACC ͼ 56 56 NA 68

Ǵ ƀ 13 13 NA 15 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 298 298 NA 298

FXn $US 139 139 NA 139

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard Destatis

Ugrave 3-5 lt8uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 79 (110) 78 (108) NA 84 (117) FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA 20

ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ

ƀ NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 16 16 NA 16 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

323 lt8oumlRBL0+yuml2008ĀrmicroQ1-1plusmnecirc

x 3-2EoPk3 LCOE85MWh 118oMWhͿǷĽġǮ-Yacute1ampđɔbDFA˒ccedilG$3ɡɦKsup21IJʆG

33

x 3-2 lt8uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup323

324 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) BL0+dj LCOE 3KAampEG34aRZn3śʷ-GʾEHGđɔb3ş

4ƀszligːǨ 2630ǨoPk3ļǷaRZn3szligːǨ4ƀ 2260Ǩ$HDFA4G1frac12

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4 1373 kW1908o kWͿ-đɔbDFA 76

kW106okWͿfrac12)ampLCOE1˧5H4ʢ 3MWh4oMWhͿȿ1ɸƎG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAʢ 7MWh10oMWhͿH

4ŚǴɏȏ3śǟQOoyMũˠȕ01DGcurrenOtildeĦ3Igraveʚ]bn3Ǥ)ampɡɦ1DG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 oPk3aRZnđɔb3Ÿɮ4ʢ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-H4˺Ȓ

31įG

(e) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4ƦŚ0

325 s_F(=2E

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯ14EEG1ļ+ FITɥHGoPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn EEG2004G4 EEG20093-ƲJHGF$Hsup2ń3ĔTHORN4˟=H0E1oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎGamp3reg3PdlOzKŨTHORNG4ƧIJHE$3currenƦA0

ĎȲ23 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4ĭǂcopyTHORN3ampđɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3

Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

34

x 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup324

326 aringmH7B

x 3-31ʆampD15MWh7oMWhͿ3yacuteYjɣ FH4szligːǨʰƾ3Ÿɮ1DGA3-G

33

-LoPk3QOoyM3Aring4Śȉaeligouml 2MW3Ͷ 5ļ-ȒƭHGaRZn3szligːǨ42260ǨƦŚG3m3ƦŚ1ļ+LCOE485MWh118oMWhͿLJŚHampNjAEligHamp FIT1DFaRZnɯǨȐʿ3yacuteYjampFʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ10GǛ3Oacute4 EEG-ˠŚHG

Ugrave 3-6 lt8Iumlsectpsup325

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

85 (118) NA 135

(188) ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

79 (110) NA 84

(117)

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

5 (7) NA 46

(64)

rOtildemiddot

BMU Leitszenarion 2009 ndash Bundesministerium fuumlr Umwelt Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit Langfristszenarien und Strategien fuumlr den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland ndash Leitszenario 2009 (2009)

Destatis Statistisches Bundesamt wwwdestatisde (last access December 2009) ĎȲ24 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAG ĎȲ25 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

35

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 32 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122007 (2008)

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 34 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122008 (2009)

Deutsche WindGuard Deutsche WindGuard GmbH on behalf o Zentrum fuumlr Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Wuumlrttemberg (ZSW) Vorbereitung und Begleitung bei der Erstellung eines Erfahrungsberichtes gemaumlszlig sect 20 EEG (2008)

EEG 2004 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich (2004)

EEG 2009 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich und zur Aumlnderung damit zusammenhaumlngender Vorschriften (2008)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

36

Aring 4Auml JN6

41 JN6uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

411 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬʹş42000ƀ3 447 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 2121 MW1ŀdivide3( 228 MWȳͶoumlɯ3ş0)GͶoumlɯ1DGƀ3ɯouml42000ƀ3 08 TWhE 2008ƀ3 43 TWh1ŀdivideGǞ2008ƀ3Uh3ʱȸouml4 119 TWh-)ampͶoumlɯ3ʁǴɶȔ42008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 2000 MWdivideG-G3ɶȔ3ƭ1DFˬʹȽgtG4ƈˬ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʱş4ʢ 4000 MW10G2009ƀ14950 MW3ȳͶoumlɯ3THORNǸŐHGȳͶoumlɯ3ɶȔOacute42020 ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 6000 MW 1G-Graquo EU 3aumlɣė˃SrYƿplusmn3ʻyacuteKɄGamp34 2020ƀ=-3ɶȔOacute45178 MW-G x 4-1 D7Ugrave 4-1 4-2 4D7ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71ěƀƄ3

ʁǴɱD7ǴɱɶȔOacute3currenɂ-Gszlig3şmg4ěƀǶ3mg-Gɏ1ɫƧ-GU

h4ǠœͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ14ɶȔOacuteKŚ0

x 4-1 JN6uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 and Rijksoverheid 2010

2000ƀ3ƀŨTHORNş4ĝƀǶ3ʦʏˬOtildeşĝ ş1ˬŚHampUgrave 4-21ʆȜģƀŨTHORNş4

ǑĐampͶoumlɯaRZn3ȜģˬOtildeşKĠL-GUgrave 4-2 1ʆamp2009 ƀE 2012 ƀ=- 2012ƀE 2020ƀ=-3ěǴ3ȜģƀŨTHORNş4ě3Ǵ3ſĹƀŨTHORNşKʆGsup23˘1ʆˬOtildeş4UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ1ļ+ˬOtildeş3currenɂ-GRijksoverheid 2010Ϳ

37

Ugrave 4-1 JN6IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0447 0485 0672 0905 1075 1224 1453 1641 1921 2727 6000

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0108 0228 0228 5178

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 andRijksoverheid 2010

Ugrave 4-2 JN6regwoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0038 0038 0187 0233 0170 0149 0229 0188 0280 0202 0409

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0 0 0 0619

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010Rijksoverheid 2010

412 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1ǝamp0 FIT ĽŌ˩ɩ-G SDE ˮȲ 7ŨTHORNHamp3 SDE bX3-Ͷoumlɯ3ś3ɯ]bn1˟ĜotildeŀĕEgraveȉoumlčEgraveȉ1divideǓƱJHGE1aumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗93Ʒ

1fynʌiacuteUacuteLjʹKɥGjnSDEotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3Ȃʩgtatilde-ȏ˪HG

42 JN6VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-Uh3deg˘ɱ0D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZnK˷ǥG

421 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh4 2003ƀ1szligːǨ|b-ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎG FITiacuteƄKŨTHORNamp2006ƀ=-4

szligːǨ 18000 Ǩ=-3aRZn1ťǰ- 10 ƀ FIT NjAEligHamp2008 ƀE3 FIT 1DGǓǎ4szligːǨ 2200 Ǩsup23aRZn1ť˖JHG10)ampſĹszligːǨ4ƀʢ2000Ǩ-$3ˊɱ0ʜı4ƀ 16002800Ǩ-G Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4FITǓǎ3˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZnKʆGĎȲ263

aRZn-4$3Pq`NlOz3ņĄǕɱ1ś˖ė˃0]bn3|KˬŚGdeg˘ɱ0

34 15 MW3ũˠȕQOoyM-ͶoumlɯaRZn3ņĄ 23 MW3ͶgɷƑ 90 mtz 60Έ80 mͿKAuml)G3ĸĻ-4iacuteˬEHFHE3ĸĻ-4tz 4060 m3 450800 kWͶˊɱ-G

(b) ccedil-1 aRZn3deg˘ɱ0Ʒ]bn4 1000kW1390okWͿE 1600kW2224okWͿ

=-Fˊ1Ʒ]bnszligːǨAŅ0)G

ˮȲ 7 SDE (stimulering duurzame energie) UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrYD7ɖAtildeʬ1GǓǎbX ĎȲ26 đɔaRZn134Ƿccedilǿ-ɥampđɔb13KƿA3-401ȲƧ

38

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3atildeˮ4ɯouml1D)ŃuumlGA3 9Έ12 kWh13Έ17 okWhͿż4ɥ

ŐE 5ƀ3^wbŋʢ1DGͿˬOtildeş1D)ŃuumlGA3 25kW35okWͿĸdegʡʭʡ]bnKĠͿ-GƔʿ3Oacute4aRZn1D)˒ɮ0Gś3ʰƾ4ƀ 23otildeĜ-ŀdivideGƦŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷKēǧampƀ|b3Ouml 80-˺GaR

ZnKɥG˚ugrave3NjAEligʿ-GͿǕƃ4ˇŹǷɞ 15D7Oumlɞ 6ͼKȜƦŚGoumlmiddotʇ4ub`n1ļ+˺K˖)GȰlaquoʌ4 255ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A 0ĔTHORNɅ4Yacuteəźľ-3Ǵŋʢ1DGoumlł-FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ1D)yacuteYj

K)Gyumlƽɱ0dividePdlOzfynSrYƷotildeƊ1D)NjAEligHG

3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4˹ʌė˃0ĔTHORNɅKƾamp0ɯbrvbarȐʿKĠ==0brvbarȐiquest1ɥHF1

43iacuteƄ1DFƯƖʌ 421ťeumlɲKƖGɯbrvbarȐʿAG

(f) Q54Q1 -ɥampmg4Uh3 FIT otildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3˩ʙ-ɥampđɔaRZn3agrave˘mg-

G (Lensink et al 2009 Cleijne et al 2010)

422 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh3ȳͶoumlaRZn-4ƈˬ˴ėKƖǰņ 50 m2ˠȕ3QOoyMKƈˬG-

Gƕ)deg˘ɱ0ȳaRZn3ˬOtildeş4 100Έ300 MW-Fʡʭ1NjAEligHGȜģɯouml4szligːǨ 3300Έ4000ǨɸƎ-G2008ƀ1 Prinses AmaliaQOoyMřƭamp1ʆmg14$3]bnȒ4ƛAĠ=H0

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4 2500Έ3500kW3475Έ4865okWͿ-G2008ƀ1řƭampaRZn4$

3ǘƀntilde1Famp˴ė3iacuteǼacute3ampȣɱũĺ3 V90ĺ 2 MWͶKɥG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ɥbrvbarȐʿ3ɥśʷ3Ū01DFʰƾ14ņ0ʄśƟœķGƀʰƾ4 90

kW125okWͿLJŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZn|b3˺ȒKɥF$3Ouml3otildeĜ4 50-GPrinces

AmaliaQOoyM3˺4aRZnȢ1˖)GWACC3ƦŚOacute4ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3Ƿ]bn3ordmOacute-H4 NuonShellƯDzG OWEZecirc3Ǡœ3ȳQOoyM1ɥEHampOacute-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A Ǡœ3QOoyM4Ǣ MEP˩ɩ1ļ+˚ugraveKĖF97MWh135oMWhͿ3ijŚ

FITĽŌKƖampfynPdlOz3˚ugraveɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 3mg4Ľɯ˘$3reg3agraveɱ1eumlɥ-GƥĽ1ļ+A3-ƥĽ1ŸɮGľĜ4ʆHamp

ƥĽ1ļ+m[-˚)G

39

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘1ěƀ1ƦŚampD7ȳͶoumlɯ3OacuteKʆ2007ƀ3aRZn]bn4 2008ƀǨ

ɏ3n1G-ʆGUgrave 4-5 3ouml3źľEgraveȉ14ĕƊ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnǴŋʢ3otildeƊɞĠ=HG

Ugrave 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 1 15 120 NA Ͷļǘ ļ 1 5 60 NA ɯ szligːǨ 2000 2200 3350 NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 15 NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1120 (1557) 1325 (1842) 3315 (4608) NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 40 (56) 24 (33) 92 (128) NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) NA NA NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

Ugrave 4-4 JN6uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 5 5 5 NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 15 15 12 NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 50 NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 50 NA WACC ͼ 60 60 79 NA

Ǵ ƀ 10 15 10 NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 255 255 255 NA

FXn $US 139 139 139 NA

Ugrave 4-5 JN6uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (81) 56 (78) 59 (82) NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 663 (922) 28 (39) 97 (135) NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ 37 20 44 NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

43 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ƛ˞0˴ėKƖG3ampogP0)

G

40

431 JN6uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 4-2 JN6rmicroQ1plusmnecircxpsup327

(b) BL0+dj Uh3Ͷ3ːɞ4ʢ 25-FszligːǨ 2200 ǨͿđɔb3 30DFAfrac12FIT 1DG

˚ugrave4szligːǨ 2200 ǨKGG4 SDE ˠiacute3˳ʧKʾƬ$HDFAfrac12ˬŚHGͿamp2200ǨDFAŅɯGamp3PdlOz4ŚHGE1˞0˞į4B4FͶȯ-G

432 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4Đ3ĪͲ1EcircGė˃ƟGszligːǨ 2200Ǩsup2KɯGPdl

Oz4ŚHGͶ3ˬ˩$HHBBɮ0)Fƕ)EgraveȉŘ0Gė˃Ɵ4ǃ-0

Aring5ĝ ɯȗKAuml)AgzoũľĜƷ]bnfrac12szligːǨŀdivideG

(b) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ0)Gį4ĸdeg3-Fƀʢ 10kW15okWͿ-G

(c) ccedilntildeacirciacute-113T-1 đɔbȣGUh3Ͷoumlɯ4Ȱlaquoʌȣɱfrac12 (255ͼ) eumlɏAGǑĐ]bn

4ʾƬ0

433 s_F(=2E

Uh3ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ43ʍ͵3PdlOziacuteƄ3ơƣKĖG-G$30A34 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ-2007 ƀ=-1HK˞ȨampaRZn1ťMEP ˮȲ 81DF 10 ƀijŚotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligH2008 ƀsup21HK˞ȨampaRZn3ľĜ4SDE 1DF 15 ƀŃuumlotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligHG3 FITiacuteƄ1divideaRZn3ľĜ4ǰņƷ]bn 600kW834okWͿ1ťƷ]bn3 443ʌdž3Ʒ˚ugrave (EIA) D7otildeƊɞ 13fynKeumlɥG

ĎȲ27 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ ˮȲ 8 MEP (Milieukwaliteit Elektriciteitsproductie) Uh3oumlɣɤ1GȰƓ

41

-G

x 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup328

434 aringmH7B

Uh3yacuteYj42007 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn1˧5Ugrave 4-6 đɔͿʢ ndash36 MWhndash50oMWhͿPpb3Oacute10)GH4Đ3MEP3 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3ˬ˩3Ș1DGA3-˚ugraveͳ3ļɵ0)ampoumlEgraveȉK 2Έ3 MWh3Έ4 oMWhͿfrac12ƦŚamp1DGoumlEgraveȉ 6~8 MWh 1ǤG1HŪ0AoumlEgraveȉ4ͶoumlaRZn4ż1ͺoumlɱ0A310)ampƔʮiacuteƄ-G SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ1ļ+ 2008 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn143ȘĕFHyacuteYj4 ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿBBPpb3Oacute10)GěʍaRZn3ɯ]bn3Ž4ndash3 DFA4G1ņɏ1ȲƧG3ampndash3MWh4oMWhͿPpb3Oacute4eKņĮGA3-40 ȳͶoumlɯ3b3yacuteY4Ɗʯ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-)ampH4ɷDžƖampyacuteƥ

Ľ1ļ+A3-40Princes AmaliaQOoyM3Ȫʙ1İɣ amp4ǥE-G

44

Uh4ŧǽ1A 2020ƀ1AD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Dzdz0ɶȔOacuteKŚGɠķ3 SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ4HKśɠGamp3ǰA˞0k-G43 Eacute3ccedilǿʫȁEUh3brvbarAring1GyacuteYj4ʹ˒-40JG ugraveKƖampɯouml4szligːǨ 2200Ǩ=-1iacuteHG3ǘOacute4Uh3Ͷȯ1ċampA3-G2200Ǩsup23ɯ1ťGPdlOz4ŚHFHAƷ]bnfrac123į-Gė˃ƟGʰƾ4ĸdeg3ampȣɱ

0)G

ĎȲ28 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

42

Ugrave 4-6 JN6Iumlsectpsup329

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

91 (126)

94 (131)

166 (231) NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

127 (177)

96 (133)

161 (224) NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash36 (-50)

ndash3 (-4)

5 (7) NA

rOtildemiddot

Cleijne JW SM Lensink and CJ Faasen (2010) SDE Wind op land met vollasturen en differentiatie [SDE wind onshore with full load hours and differentation] ECN-E--10-001 Petten January 2010

Lensink SM JW Cleijne M Mozaffarian AE Pfeiffer S L Luxembourg and GJ Stienstra (2009) Eindadvies basisbedragen 2010 [Final advice SDE premium base rates 2010] ECNKEMA ECN-E--09-058 Petten November 2009

Rijksoverheid (2010) Nationaal actieplan voor energie uit hernieuwbare bronnen Richtlijn 200928EG [National Renewable Energy Action Plan Directive 200928EG] Den Haag June 2010

Statistics Netherlands (2010) online databank httpstatlinecbsnl VoorburgHeerlen August 2010

ĎȲ29 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

43

Aring 5Auml 1CN

51 1CNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bP3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯŮ1G=ampɚŚ3 EU 3ɶȔ1ļ+ CO2ǃaeligethȿ3amp

1 2020 ƀ 2030 ƀ1ƦŚHGɶȔOacuteKʆE1ˠiacute3ȂʩgtK˷ǥGraquo$30Ȓƭ˞ʥK˟ɷordfȾoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3]bn3ƐKŪ0Gamp1ɠķ˖JHGͿ E1 2008ƀ1GbPźľ3deg˘ɱ0QOoyM3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) K˷ǥ$3sup3

ŚKregĴ1GͶoumlɯ3]bnȣG

511 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac12frac34laquo

2009ƀǶǨɏ-Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4 19149 MW1bP3oumlʡʭ1 3ɭɶ1ņ0Ʌ0)GbP3Ͷoumlɯɯ4 90ƀdegĄ51Ő=F2001ƀsup24ǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşƀſĹ-ʢ 1800MWdivideHampˠiacuteǔȜHamp 2004ƀ 2007ƀ14Ĵɟplusmn 4362004D7 6612006Ϳ3şņŽ1ŀdivideamp3ˠiacute3ǔȜ1DF$HKeumlɥampǝˠaRZn3ʑ(EumlHamp

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯouml42009ƀ3bP3SrYʱ˞3ʢ 14KĈG x 5-14ŅĴȣ3ťƀ-G 2008ƀ=-1bP1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3H=-3ʦʏˬOtildeş

ƀŨTHORNşKʆG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3mg4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3SrY˖uuml˩ɩNREAPͿ1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)2020ƀ3currenɂ4SrY˞3 20Kaumlɣė˃SrY- EU3ɶȔƭ1ğampǘOacute-G

x 5-1 1CNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

x 5-1 4bP-H=-1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşD7notƔˬʹHG˟=HGˬOtildeşKʆG=ampƀŨTHORNşKx 5-21ʆ2009ƀbPǕƃ4 2010ƀE 2012ƀ=-3ěƀ1ˬʹG MWşKiacuteGamp3otildeƎKŚG1amp=ampoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3ƐKȿ Gamp3˩ɩKnotƔ3Ȱplusmn1ʩgtL-ɯ˘ampszlig3aumlɣė˃SrY]aRr`3

Ĝ˩ş 6000 MW4ʱoumlĕƊ3 25KĈH4ʪȽĊȗ-4ɚ1]bn-GͿ

44

bP1GȳͶoumlɯ30Ł4ņȍ0-F3ampȮų3ȦȻ 50m 10)Gƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ-4ͳ0ļʅ˞0F$3ampHE3aRZn3ś˖ė˃Ɵ4iacute

HGE1aacuteʡɏ-4ȺĀŇɓWbļĸ1ˬʹHG]uPo^PZWbgw3

ɯ1DG~nrjZœķGampNZdbşEHampA310)G

Ugrave 5-1 1CNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

16 22 34 49 62 85 100 116 151 167 23 35

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 5-2 1CNoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

16 06 12 15 13 23 15 16 35 16 15 14

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

512 s_CcedilN3N9A

Ȱɱ1currenƦHGEacuteɲKĖGamp14ͶoumlɯaRZnKɚecirc3iacuteƄ131ccedil͵Gƛ˞G

ʟĴ3ȉ˴ŚiacuteƄĝȓͿH4ͶoumlɯaRZnʡʭ1UacuteYacuteDžʯ-GũłbrvbarȐʿAacuteocircouml

KĕE250E0Ϳamp=ampEgraveȉˠiacuteHGamp-GĴɟƿplusmn 6612007-˘ǥHampD1Ͷoumlɯ3ǓƱbX14ˠiacuteǛbXźľĎɡ3 2G

ˠiacuteǛbX4QOoyMƯDzʿƸampǴ1GͶoumlɯ3ʻyacuteɱ0ijŚĕƊ

Egraveȉ-Gx 5-23ǘOacuteͿ ǰʨɱ0Egraveȉ 1Ǩ3ɪEgraveȉoumlPdlOz1ļ+oumlčźľEgraveȉ3ʩgtĜJ-Ȫ=GI3źľĎɡ4ĽŌ13AĤ5HGƕ)ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿĖĕGǛ4

Egraveȉ1ŷęHG10F3Egraveȉż1frac12ľĜ4ǰfrac12Egraveȉsup2-H5ˬ

EHGx 5-34ˠiacuteǛ3đɔOacuteKʆG

x 5-2 Ucircgntilde1)QEAcirc ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

45

ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ4ntildeǡźľ3ɯ˩ɩKNjaeligcurrenɂKɥ3˩ɩś3ɯouml3currenɂ˶ŸKȿE

D1GE1==0ĸĻ1ƈˬHampQOoyMɸuml1˚Ugrave-˶ŸKŪ0Gamp

1==0aRZn[ĀHG3`bl1DFN``bl3ȴɥ

ʬ˺ǙKǰĀG-$3]bn34ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿǓƱ)G2008 ƀ4ʢ 15 MWh205oMWhͿ-)amp ˫3Oacute4Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120071D)ȸʿEgraveȉƿǘ (CPI) 1ļ+ǭǝH2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝ

ɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp x 5-34Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073ǟ˖sup2Ɣ3 FITǛiacuteƄ3ŃuumlKʆampA3-G2007ƀĴɟƿplusmn 6612007

1DF CPI1Ȯ) FITǔ˨HG10F2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp2010ƀ14ǭǝHampOacutePpb10FntildeƀKĮ)ampH4 CPIe1)ampamp-G bP3ʡʭɥʿ-G Red Electrica de Espantildea (REE) 1DH5ˬ Otildeş3 94ijŚEgraveȉĕU`

1D)ɥHGampčoumlźľEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ƐH0x 5-4Ϳ

x 5-3 ~BINcentIcircceyuml~[umlāntildeĀ ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

x 5-4 dividejo~uumljfrac14divideethyuml2008Ā ǛΆ Spanish TSO (REE)

Ͷoumlɯ3ņccedil4čźľ-ɷDžłHGampĽ4Egraveȉ1ņŷęHŇɓWbEgraveȉȦouml

ɯ3ɛȯ0E71Ĵźľ1G CO2 Egraveȉ3Egraveȉ1ƐG3amp 2008 ƀ14ſǡEgraveȉ4 6443MWh8956oMWhͿ0F2007ƀ3 3935MWh5470oMWhͿK 64Į)ampH4ɠķ=-1˫HampEgraveȉ-ǰAͳ-G Ͷoumlɯ3źľĕƊEgraveȉKx 5-31oumlčEgraveȉKx 5-51ʆYacute1ampD1Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073brvbar

Aring-43Egraveȉ4E=-3ʜıatilde1GſǡoumlčEgraveȉ1ļ+EgraveȉĽŌ3Ĝ˩Oacute-G

46

x 5-5 dividejBQK[umllcedilyuml2003Ą2009Ā ǛΆOMEL and Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

52 1CN 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-2008 ƀ1GbP3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKHKreg3đdivideĴ1GͶoumlɯɯ3ěʍmȣG

521 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

ɚecirciquestiacute13`blKeumlɥGamp14bP3QOoyM3ˠȕ 50 MWK40E0ˬ ʹampQOoyM3ſĹˠȕ4ʢ 25 MW-˩ ʙQOoyM3ˬOtildeşK 2007ƀA 2008ƀA 30MWsup3ŚG Ğɶ3ɥǨ4Śȉaeligouml-ƀ 1700ǨE 2350Ǩ=-==-G2008ƀ3szligĴſĹ4 2085

ǨͿ=ampaRZn3đɔOacute4 2007ƀ- 2200Ǩ2008ƀ- 2150Ǩ-)amp bP-ɥEHGszlig3ʪȽm-4aRZn3ɥǴ4 20ƀGraquoH4Q

OoyM3śʷ4E0Ϳ2007ƀ 2008ƀ14aRZn3Py^PZK 20ƀG

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹˠȕ4 1985 kW-2007ƀ3 1621 kWEJ1ŀdivideamp3m-ȏ˪G34 2000 kW3Ͷ0J(3QOoyM-4 2 MW3Ͷ 15ļͿ-G

x 5-6 2008THORNOacuteuumlegrave2bszlig ǛΆ Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

47

(b) ccedil-1 ƀ3Ʒʱͳ0)amp34Zb III D7 IV ˮȲ 93ņĺͶoumlɯ˙ʹˬʹHampE-

FƎeacuteEĶʡʭ93ʡBěʍʌcurrenɂHampJ-40 $H1AJEƀ4ĎǺǛ]bn3frac121DFͶ3]bnȿŪG=ampǕĊȗˠiacute3

Ńǭ1DFͶ3˞Afrac12ampQOoyM93Ʒʱͳ1ĈGͶ3]bn4ʢ 70Έ73ͼ-G3]bn4ĎǺǛ3Egraveȉɠķ3[jo]o1Ɇ ampƛ˞0ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵ1šDž1EcircG

2007ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn14Ʒ]bn4 1233kW1714okWͿ2008ƀ14 1250kW1738okWͿLJŚHG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾAaeligoumlƶiacuteȒatildeoumlȸ3amp3oumlǛˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵŀamp1DFŀdivide

Gʰƾ4 2007ƀ 1910MWh2655oMWhͿ2008ƀ 1963MWh2729oMWhͿLJŚHG100ͼŃuumlͿHE3]bn4|3ŃuumlƟdegǯĦ3eumlɥė˃Ɵƛ˞HGɕʶƴ˗ʿBȗȋ˙ʹ)amp˞į1G Ͷoumlɯȗ3^Pc4ƼņGͶȯ3ǰAD^Pn4-1eumlɥHGampŚȉǨ4ȿŪ

G10G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȞĘɱ1bP-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯKbPĴatilde3˖3oumlD7ŘŚampȰɱȂ

ʩgt1ļ+aRZn3yacuteiquestiacute1D)˺amp$H1AJEȵuumlƟKȘamp˺iacute

Ƅ3amp13 2ƀ-ɛȯŃĀAgraveE3ƺIgrave1DGIgrave˯ƛ˞10)G ˺]bn42007ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ1ˬŚHG2007ƀ2008

ƀAǷOuml3ȣɞ4 2ť 8-G2008ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A źľ93ł1DGĔTHORN42007ƀ1 394MWh548oMWhͿ2008ƀ1 644oMWh895o

MWhͿ-)amp3ĔTHORN1ť2007ƀ1 348MWh483oMWhͿ2008ƀ14 215MWh299oMWhͿ˰EgraveHamp FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideHGFITǕʘǴ4(E3bA 20ƀ1ijŚHG

(f) Q54Q1 1ʆampmg4bPͶoumlɯąmiddot (AEE) D7 Intermoney śǟampʃʐ1ļ+A3-G

522 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

bP3ȳͶoumlɯSN4 62SN1ccedilotildeHHE3SN-4ͶoumlɯˠiacuteHGHE3SN1ťTHORNǸ˖JHG10G3śɱPq`NizK5currenɂHGQOo

yM3ˠȕ4ʢ 1000 MW-G

(b) ccedil-1 mg0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig mg0

ˮȲ 9 Zb III4sectʬ˵Ũɯȗ (DFIG) D7ccedilŚȉ3]ugKɥampͶZb IV4ĝǴɯȗD7y

Śȉ]ugE0GͶccedil͵HG3ccedil͵ǞȰ3˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

48

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mg0

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A mg0

(f) Q54Q1 mg0

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 5-25-54sup23 LCOEccedilǿ-ɥampm[3ntildeNjǼacuteKʆA3-G]bn3sup3Ś4szlig 2007

ƀ 2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZnK˘A3-2008ƀnǨ3-˘ʆG

Ugrave 5-3 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 30 30 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ 15 15 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ 2200 2150 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1233 (1714) 1250 (1738) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 191 (266) 196 (272) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA

Ugrave 5Ă4 1CNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 9 10 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 6 7 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 NA NA Ǵ ƀ 15 15 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 30 30 NA NA

FXn $ 139 139 NA NA

Ugrave 5-5 1CNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 53 (74) 54 (75) NA NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 34 (47) 35 (49) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ

ͼ 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 20 20 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 36 (51) 37 (52) NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

49

523 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 5-7 1CNrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup330

(b) BL0+dj bP3ͶoumlɯaRZn4đɔbDFAˬOtildeeumlɥɞfrac12ͶȯbP3szligːǨ1Ɛ

GampbP3 LCOE4đɔb3 LCOEDFA 18MWh25oMWhͿ0)Gđɔb3ſĹːǨLJŚ 2680Ǩ-G31ťbP4 2150Ǩ0)G szligːǨ4bP3 LCOE đɔb3 LCOE 3Ÿɮ13ǰA˞0Ńǘ-GͶȯ1divide

ʰƾAđɔbKĮ)FH14ĸdegD7ĸĻBˇȬiquest˞ȨGeumlɲɞAĠ=HG LCOE33˷ǥ0Gʖ 33˞į4˺]bn-F3ͳ4aRZn3WACCD7ǰʨɱ

1ě3Ʒ1˞ȨHGƷĔɲɞ (ROI) KŀdivideG

(c) ccedil-1 bP3Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4ʢ 1250kW1738okWͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 200

kW278 okWͿŘbP-4Ʒ]bnfrac12ampLCOE 4 10 MWh14 oMWhͿfrac120G ǑĐ]bn4QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘʨpoundamp3ɯˬOtilde3˥iquest]bnKĠampͳ-ʱƷ]

bn3ʢ 3ͼKĈG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bP3brvbarAring1Gyacuteɛȯ1ˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlɲɞ4đɔbDFA0)G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig bP-4ʰƾđɔbDFA0)GbP3ʰƾʱͳ14ʌĸdeg

ʚɡ]bnKĠamp3ŃuumlĠ=HGnotƔ3ʪethȿoumlˇŞȸǛ3ǤˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ

˜Ɵ3=F1DFʰƾAŀdivideG˟gt-G ſĹbP3ʰƾ4ʢ 196MWh272oMWhͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 7

MWh10oMWhͿ

ĎȲ30 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

50

524 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

Yacute1ampD1bP14 FIT iacuteƄͶoumlɯ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄͿźľiacuteƄźľEgraveȉͶoumlɯ3ĽŌͿ 23ǓƱiquestʡG2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ3ʢ 91ͼKźľiacuteƄ1DFłampH4ɯȐʿDFŅ3ĔTHORNKƖEHGamp-G x 5-8 4ĔTHORN3ŃǘȥǛͿͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOz3ŃǘbP1GźľiacuteƄ

3ĽŌͿKȣampA3-G

x 5Q-8 1CNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup331

525 aringmH7B

bP3mccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿ-G3EſĹbP3ͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOzEaRZnɯ

3yacute˞acuteKɄamp-G3ăccedil0Xj`yKƖGJG

53 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 5Ă6 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+psup332

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

76 (106)

83 (115) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

87 (121)

86 (120) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash11 (ndash15)

ndash3 (ndash4) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2009) ldquoEoacutelica 09 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Julio 2009)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileANUARIO20COMPLETO5B15Dpdf

ĎȲ31 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ32 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

51

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2008) ldquoEoacutelica 08 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Junio 2008)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee- publicaAEE_anuario_ingles08pdf

AEE ndash Intermoney (2006) ldquoEstudio de costes del sector eoacutelico Realizado por Intermoney para AEE (2006)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee-publica060612-Gen-EolicaEsp- PRALpdf

Comisioacuten Nacional de la Energiacutea (CNE) wwwcnees

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Red Eleacutectrica de Espantildea (REE) Spanish TSO wwwreees Royal Decree 6612007 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacionRD_661-2007-REpdf Royal Decree 4362004 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacion(36)RD436_2004pdf Spanish Market Operator (OMEL) wwwomeles

52

Aring 6Auml 1$QN

61 1$QNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bQRm3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙ0E71 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿK˷ǥG

611 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş42004ƀ1 474 MW)amp3 2008ƀǶ14 937 MW0)Gx 6-1ͿbQRmĆ3ȳQOoyM3ˬOtildeş4 2007ƀ14 110 MW-)amp=ampqN`N133Ƀ-3ɯAEHG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯcurrenɂ4EUdivideɳĴ3ěĴaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 3mg1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)

x 6-1 1$QNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_Uacuteuacute

ǛΆVinkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 and European Commission 2010 Ugrave 6-14bQRm1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=amp

Ugrave 6-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 6-1 1$QNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

220 220 272 322 381 429 470 560 698 951 2065 4365

ȳ 10 20 23 23 23 23 23 23 133 133 150 182

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

53

Ugrave 6-2 1$QNoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

ndashndashndash 05 51 50 59 48 41 90 138 253 278 288

ȳ ndashndashndash 10 25 0 0 0 0 0 110 0 4 4

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

612 s_CcedilN3N9A

bQRm-4aumlɣė˃SrY1DGɯ3ǓǎʘĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ (TGC) KŨTHORNG$3ɶɱ42016ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 17 TWh1ŀB-G3ɶȔOacuteK2020ƀ=-1ė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 25 TWh1GE1OacuteGampɠķ3iacuteƄ3ǔȜȏ˪HG=ampbQRmsQR3aacute`bl3Ȓʝ1ğampordfȾ˖J

HG 2008 ƀ=-4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ˖ɢĿĽŌ13AĤ5HGijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) Ͷoumlɯ

1ɥHamp3ɢĿĽŌ134ȳͶoumlɯ14 2009ƀ=-eumlɥė˃-)amp=amp 2003ƀ1vPjnaRZn3Ǔǎ˩ɩŐHampȳͶoumlɯţaringȥNtildeȎȀĸŻ-3Ͷoumlɯ)

ampˉģȻ˟0HampaRZn12008 ƀE 2012 ƀ=-3Ǵ1 3710 5160 oͿ3currenʙotildeƎEHG

2006 ƀʈǕƃ3ɢĿƐccedilǿ1Gˠiuml0E71ǝˠͶoumlɯaRZn3˴ėdbʞɬĀH25 MW=-3QOoyM4ˇȬiquest1ŭaeligH5ˬʹ-G0)amp ͶɅ3eumlɥ1GƥĽKƁcedilGampbQRmǕƃ3Ũ3Ͷoumlɯ3eumlɥ1GĴatilder

jnZĎȲ33ȒʝHamp3rjnZ1DFͶoumlɯ3˩ɩʘŚD7˴ŚʋuacuteOslashoumlbrvbarȐ3ɯ

Ůʰƾʚɡ1Gʀ˾KȻbQRm3ͶoumlɯɯaRZnKEumlH

G E1Ͷoumlɯ3]mOrgKɥɯbrvbarȐʿEcircƎŬ0E71ĸUcircĸĻĴ3ě|1

GEcircʿ3ordfȵEumlKIJ)G

62 1$QNVUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

621 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bQRm-43aRZn3szligːǨ4 2600Έ3050 ǨĽġHGżbQR

m3Ͷoumlɯj1ʆHGszligːǨ4ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿNjaeligampǘŒKĮ)

G3amp˩ʙ-4bQRm3aRZn3ǰʨɱ0ͶoumlɯǨKĽġHampʜı3 2600ǨͿG

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3aRZn42008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZn3]bnD7ɯoumlēǧ

Hampdeg˘ɱaRZnŚʻHamp Ƿ]bn4ampF 12171915kW1692Έ2662okWͿ=-Fmccedilǿ-4 1591kW2212okWͿsup3Śamp

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3ijŚccedil4ſĹ 0004 kW0006 okWͿŃuumlccedil4ʢ 11 MWh15 o

ĎȲ33 httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse đɔ

54

MWhͿLJŚG3Ńuuml4 7 MWh10 oMWhͿE 24 MWh33 oMWhͿ=-FvPjnaRZn1Gʰƾ4ż1ŃuumlņɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒

ɮ0)G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 Ugrave 6-51ʆD1mccedilǿ-4OumleumlőKƷŞżĽġG 5˟L-GͶoumlɯ1Ʒ

GparaȐ3middot˩Ľġ3ccedilǿ-420ͼƍOuml]bnʆHGbQRm3paraȐccedilǿEŨaeligampƛ˞0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞʫ7macrOumleumlőɞK 5LJŚampľĜͶoumlɯ3]bnKũ˰EgraveG10F20

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ǵŋʢ1DGźľ93oumlłŨTHORNHGĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ

23ĔTHORN3ȵH1D)KƖG(E3ĔTHORNɅAʄśƟż12008ƀ=-FITĽŌiacuteƄAɥHFͶoumlɯaRZn4 2 MWh3 oMWhͿŪͳ3ĽŌKĖamp

(f) Q54Q1 LCOE˩ʙ3mg4˫3D0ɥǓǎ˩ɩ3ʫȁD7Ĵatilde3_3amp1bQRmSrY

Ŭ=ampmg)amp˜ǘ3ƥĽɅ1ļ+A3-GǑĐ]bn4 Svensk Vindenergi (2009) 3mgKAumlɥampbQRm3Ͷoumlɯ˩ɩ1Gʭ˩Oacute4bQRmSrYŬȢƀɯ˘

GĽġǮ ES20103 ldquoVindkraft statistic 2009 (Wind power statistics 2009)rdquoD7 Vindkraft Statistik 20081ļ+G2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯǨ4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ3mgKAumlɥGE1Ͷoumlɯ3ɯȐbrvbarʿEʆmg3NjAEligKĖamp=ampEcircGotildeƊɞKǥE1Gampmiddot˩ǛKđɔampE14˚Ǜ O2 0E71 AriseȇƉźľ3ŨTHORN1GbrvbarȐaeligɘəEŦŞ3Ƨ˟KƊɥamp

622 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

2008ƀǨɏ-ŨTHORNHampbQRmǰņ3ȳaRZn4Lillgrunden3 11 MW3aRZn-)amp3aRZn4 Vattenfall 2004ƀ1Ɗʮ2007ƀ1ʡʭ1ʡHampLillgrundenaRZn-4 Siemens3 23 MWͶ MKII 48ļAumlɥHG$3( 13ļ4 2004ƀsup2ntilde1ʡʭ1ʡHGbQRm3ǰǝaRZn4 3 MW3Ͷ 10ļKOtildeamp GaumlsslingegrundaRZn-H4 VaumlnernɃ3Ģ 7Έ13m1ļʅKˬʹampqN`N133aRZn-G

Ugrave 6-3 LillgrundenBL0+Z

Lillgrundenmg Ά ļɆȷDF 115 m gɷƑΆ 924 m ʱʏΆ 6734 m2 iacuteƗǞȰΆ ėŃxjiD7ėŃƄ gƄΆ 6Έ16 rpm ǰņYacuteʔƄΆ 280 kmh gΆ 60 t pdΆ 82 t gΆ 110 t LJŚƀɯoumlΆ 6875500 kWh ˬOtildeeumlɥɞΆ 35ͼ ſĹͶΆ 85 ms

55

Ugrave 6-4 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 235 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 41 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2600 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1591 (2212) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 0004 (0006) NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 16 (222) NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 6-5 1$QNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 12 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 87 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 13 NA NA WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 47 NA NA

Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 28 NA NA

FXn SEKeuro ndashndashndash 942 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

Ugrave 6-6 1$QNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 50 (70) NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 25 (35) NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 2 (3) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 1 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

623 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

x 6-2 1ʆD1bQRm3 LCOE 4đɔbDFʢ 1 MWh1 oMWhͿfrac120)G

56

x 6-2 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1psup334

(a) BL0+dj bQRm3szligːǨ4đɔbDFAH4ͶoumlɯaRZn1eumlɥ-Gĵĸʏ

^[ampreg3Țŵ˽ĴDFAņampƎɓ3-G

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3Ʒ4oumlɯaRZnTGC `bl2001 ƀEŨTHORNͿ0E71Ǡœ3 NordPool

ʡʭ1995ƀEoumlĕƊͿ3amp1đɔbDFABB0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig đɔbbQRm3ʰƾ3Ÿɮ4ǰũ3A3-H4^1DGė˃Ɵʹ˒

-40

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bQRm3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12H4bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ93Ʒ1

GbZ3|frac12E-FbQRm3Ͷoumlɯɯ1GʪEƎɓ3˧G

x 6-3 1$QNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup335

ĎȲ34 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

57

624 s_CcedilN3N9A

ĔTHORN4 1Ϳoumlł1DGĔTHORN2Ϳ[˯Ǯł1DGĔTHORN3ͿFITE3Ūͳ3ĔTHORN2009ƀ1ƆțͿ3 3-ȒƭHG ĔTHORN4źľE33ȵH-GampʄśƟņ0b-4ȥǛ4 50 MWh

70 oMWhͿ-ŘŚG˟0H[˯ǮEgraveȉ4ʢ 25 MWh35 oMWhͿ)amp2009ƀ1OacuteHamp

625 aringmH7B ſĹɱ0aRZn14ouml3źľEgraveȉ TGCiacuteƄ3˚UgraveKʩgtĜJG-ăccedil1]bnK

-GD-G

Ugrave 6-7 1$QNIumlsectpsup336

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 75

(104) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash8

(ndash11) NA NA

63 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 6-7 1ʆampD1bQRm3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˇŹǷ]bnD7Ouml]bnfrac12amp1ǷdivideſĹĎEgrave (WACC) ȣɱfrac120)GD-GaRZn3AEligʬ4Ouml1DGǷ˺1DGA3-macr3˺Ǵ4 20ƀ-G$HDFAmacrǴʁľĜA$EG˕Ǵ3ʨpoundǨ1ʸFHG bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ4ȞĘ=ampƀƞ1ƭG2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrY

ɅK 25 TWh1GɶȔKƭGamp14ͶoumlɯKE1ɯŮƛ˞G

rOtildemiddot

Dagens Industri wwwdise 2010-03-16 Storm kring vindkraftsbolag

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

E24 wwwe24se 2010-03-16 Vindkraftsbolagen anklagas foumlr glaumldjekalkyler Nationellt naumltverk foumlr vindbruk (national network for winduse) httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse

Svensk Vindenergi 2009 Vindkraftverk ndash kartlaumlggning av aktiviteter och kostnader vid nedmontering aringterstaumlllande av plats och aringtervinning

Vinkraftstatistik 2009 ES 20103 2010 Swedish Energy Agency available at

ĎȲ35 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ36 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

58

httpwwwenergimyndighetenseGlobalPressPressmeddelandenVindkraftsstatistik202009p df

Vindkraftstatistik 2007 ES 20082 2008 Swedish Energy Agency available at httpwwwenergimyndighetenseen

59

Aring 7Auml 11

71 11uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bPb3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙacirciquestɱ14 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿ3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1GbPb4atildeĴ-GampȳaRZn4œķ0ǪˤIgrave3ampɃȭĸĻ4ɠķͶoumlɯ^PnEńHG

711 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş41996ƀ3 2 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 14 MW1ŀdivideampͶoumlɯ1DGƀɯouml4 2000ƀ3 18 GWhE 2008ƀ3 2020 GWh1ŀdivideampH1ť 2008ƀ3ʱ˞ouml4 587 TWh-Gɠķ˩ɩEHGaRZn1D)2012ƀ14 65 MW3ɯė˃10GLJŚHGǕƃ3SrYǕʘ-4 2030ƀ1 44 MWKɯGɶȔKljG

x 7-1 11uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

Ugrave 7-14bPb1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 7-24ĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-1 11IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

28 28 451 455 456 866 116 116 116 136 176 65 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

60

Ugrave 7-2 11oacute_ethyumlMWĀ

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

28 00 170 065 001 350 290 002 000 200 400 150 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

712 s_CcedilN3N9A

bPb-4 2008 ƀ1oPkĝȓ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄFITͿKŨTHORNamp3`bl4LJŚHG LCOEKamp3A3-GFIT 1Ġ=HG34oumlźľEgraveȉ[ouml3Oacute-GͶoumlɯ14bPb3 FIT4 110MWh153oMWhͿΈ130MWh181oMWhͿ1ijŚHG

72 11VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

721 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZn42 MW3Ͷ 6ļKOtildeamp Juraű˅Ȕ 1000Έ1200 mͿ3

QOoyM-GbPb1GͶoumlaRZn3L2 MW3ͶgɷƑ 82 mtzʢ 8 0mͿKɥG3ĸĻ-4NZdbiacuteHGamp1gɷƑg31ˬEHFŚȉaeligouml 800Έ1000 kWtz 40~60 m3ͶKeumlɥG

(b) ccedil-1 bPb1Gdeg˘ɱ0aRZn3ě3Ʒ]bn4ampF 1790 kW2488 kWͿ-G

Țŵ1GͶ93Ʒ]bn3otildeĜ4ſĹʢ 76bPb-4 55~6810)G34bPb3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn93NZdbďiacuteHGamp=ampbPb-4laquoacuteż1amp-G

3ampɯƯ3ʪȣɱ0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ14bPb-4śʷŪ0ampEWEA agrave˘ampʰƾ3ȣ1ļ+bPb3ʰƾK 31MWh43oMWhͿsup3Śamp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 sup23˘4bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥamp˺]bnKʆG

Ugrave 7-3 ccedilntildeacirciacute-1YacuteEgrave

źľeuml 5 ƛ˞0Ƿeumlɲɞ 7

Ƿ3otildeĜ 30 ˀɥƀǘ 20ƀ ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ 20ƀ

Py 0 Ǵ 20ƀ

ȰlaquoʌɞOECDͿ 21

61

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A bPb14aumlɣė˃SrYɯ3brvbarȐeumlɥ-Gɜʑ3ĔTHORN`bl 2ʍ͵G 64 FIT `bl-H4sup23]bn˩ʙ3ļɵ0GA3-3ȽKĖEHG34Ȧoumlɯ

10 MWsup2atildeͿňɖɯͶoumlɯuPUb0E71uPUbƆǺ-Gaumlɣė˃SrYɅ[vͿ1DGɯ1ɥė˃03Ǜ`bl4ɯǞƉaeligoumlecirc1đɔˬOtilde1ļ+acirciquest

ɱ1ˠŚHěƴ˗3 LCOEK-Gshyʩgt10)GȽ4ɯǞƉ1D) 20Έ25ƀ3Ǵ1ɥHGcurrenƦHGƴ˗db0E71HE3ƴ˗3źľĀEuml1DFHE3Ǜ`bl

-4ͳ3Ƞɱfrac12currenƦHGǛ3ȿͳɥHG34ɰampɯˬOtilde3gt-FHE3ˬ

Otilde4ȽǴK ŚampǛ`bl1DFȽKĖGɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKLľĜ$HĝǨ1oumlźľ-[oumlKłG4-00G ʖ 2 3ĔTHORN`bl4[oumlźľ-GɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKeumlɥ-0ľĜ4źľ-

oumlKłG10Gż$3ĔTHORN4ɯbrvbarȐʿoumlmiddotʇ3ordfȾ1D)ȪŚHGoumlĽŌK

ouml3źľEgraveȉ1divideampͳ-G

(f) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşmg4 Swiss Wind Energy Association ldquoSuisse Eolerdquo1DGA3-GƷ]bn

ʰƾ3mg4 2008ƀ1˩ɩHampͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ȇ1DGA3-G˺]bn4 FIT˩ʙD7 Swiss Federal Office of Energy3mTHORNouml3sup3Ś1ļ+A3-G Ugrave 7-47-64bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOELJŚ1ɥampmĀ1Gsup3ŚKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-4 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 2 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 6 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 1750 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1790 (2488) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 31 (43) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 7-5 11uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 7 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 30 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 70 NA NA Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 21 NA NA

FXn CHFeuro ndashndashndash 067 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

62

Ugrave 7-6 11uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125 (174) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash Ńuuml NA NA

ɯȐʿTHORNȐʿ-ordfȾ

73 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯ]bn4ʢ 120MWh167oMWhͿ-đɔbDFA 58MWh81oMWhͿ0)G

731 -1plusmnecirc

x 7-2 11uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecircpsup337

(a) BL0+igraveeacuteOgrave bPb-ɯHampouml4đɔbDFA˒Ū00)GH4ͶoumlɯʋƄ-Gamp

-GszligːǨ 1750ǨͿ

ĎȲ37 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringěĴ LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0G

ľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

63

(b) ccedil-1 bPb3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAH4Ņ3^Pn93NZdbİ

˜-GD7laquoacuteamp-GbPb3aRZn4ũˠȕ03-ņˠȕ0aRZ

nȣͶTHORNǨ3otildeƊɞfrac120)G

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig bPb3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAɯƯ-4ɼȧcentȵĪͲ10)F$3ampʰƾʚɡ

]bn0)GbPb-4ʰƾ1Gśʷ4L0

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bPb3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ4 7HGraquoL3a

RZn4yacute3ɡɦ1DFƷ0oumlmiddotʇ˺Goumlmiddotʇ4[ouml3˞3

=F1ƚKŠG

732 s_F(=2E

bPb1GͶoumlɯ3 FIT4 110~130MWh153Έ181oMWhͿ-mĀccedilǿ-4 125MWh174oMWhͿKɥGĔTHORN3DF˳˷ǥ4 721ugrave(e) Kđɔ3|-4$Hsup2ń3yacuteǓǎ`bl40

x 7-3 11uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup338

733 aringmH7B bPb-4ǕʘPdlOz1DF LCOE K)Gx 7-3 EbPb3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaR

Zn-4 FIT1DF LCOEK˚)GJG

ĎȲ38 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

64

73

Ugrave 7-7 11uumljBL0+psup339

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 120

(167) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125

(174) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash5

(ndash7) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

Die Website fuumlr Windenergie-Daten der Schweiz Accessed at wwwwind-datach

Erlaumluternder Bericht zur Revision der Anhaumlnge EnV Bundesamt fuumlr Energie 2102009

Swiss Energy Act of June 26 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_0html

Swiss Energy Ordinance of December 7 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_01html

ĎȲ39 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

65

Aring 8Auml Ecircz

81 Ecirczuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4ʟĴ1GD7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1$3]bn3ɚƙɚ1 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3ŚK˷ǥGȳͶoumlɯ14ʟĴ-4=$3ɯ1Gśʷ ampʞć1˦HG3gtG=ampAring 1 Auml1ʆampđɔbȣamp2008ƀ3ʟĴ3]bnccedilǿʫȁK˷ǥG

811 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

ʟĴ1GʦʏˬOtildeş42000ƀ3ʢ 25 GWE 2008ƀǶ3 25 GW1ŀdivideampx 8-1Ϳ2005ƀsup2ěƀƄ3ƀˬOtildeş4˫Kǭǝʯ2008ƀ14ǝamp1 85 GWdivideHampĎȲ402008ƀ14ǝˠɯşszligiquest3 42KͶoumlɯĈGſĹɱ0ƀ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeş1DFʟĴ3ʱȸouml3ʢ 19ͼKAEligʬ-GHG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)2008ƀ3ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4szlig3ͶoumlɯƯ1GǘOacute-GȳͶoumlɯaRZnA˩ɩHFɠķ4$3˴ėĕƖ

Ƞ1G x 8-1 4ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3Đ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71 2012 ƀ3currenɂD7 2030 ƀ

3ɉķɱ`pUKʆG

x 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

ʟĴ4ǥʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3ɶȔOacuteKˬŚ0ƕ)x 8-1 4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴŞɶȔOacute3degJF3mgɏKʆampA3-GSrYƥĽŬ (EIA) 3ʁǴcurrenɂ1DH52012 ƀ1ǝamp1ʢ 10 GW divideHGampˬOtildeş4 2008ƀDFAGʋƄŀdivideG˟gt-G (EIA 2009)ĎȲ41Ǵcurrenɂ1Gƀ3ʃʐ-

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(AWEA2010)ǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ŅĴȣ3ťHamp 2008ƀ1GA3-G ĎȲ41 Yacute1ampD12009ƀ1ɯHampͶoumlɯ3ˬʹş4 10 GWƍ10 (AWEA 2010)

66

4ɉķɱ0Ͷoumlɯ`pU3ccedilǿ1ļ+2030ƀ=-1ʟĴ-˟=HGouml˞3 20KͶoumlɯ-Ʉamp-GG (DOE 2008)3ʃʐ3LJŚ1DH520Pbn1Gamp14Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 305 GWƛ˞10GD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Ĝ˩Ϳ=amp3ʃʐ-42018ƀ=-1ƀˬOtildeşʢ 16 GW1ŀdivideGLJŚG Ugrave 8-1 4ʟĴ1GĐD7notƔcurrenɂHGʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 8-2 4Đ

D7notƔcurrenɂHGƀŨTHORNşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

25 26 43 47 64 68 92 117 169 255 595 251

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

Ugrave 8-2 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

NA 01 17 04 17 04 24 25 52 86 103 16

ȳ NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

812s_CcedilN3N9A

ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ3ampGĔTHORNɅ4oumlłaumlɣė˃SrYźľ˯ǥ (REC) -Gouml3ʪȽEgraveOacute REC3ł4ĸĻźľ$3reg3Ǽacute1DFaRZnȢ1ɮ0)G ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ4Ǖƃ3ʌiacute3UacuteLjʹ1D)ǓEHG2008 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ

ƴ˗143UacuteLjʹPy˺Ǚɣɤʌͳdž PTCͿ ɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČɥė˃-)amp (Schwabe et al 2009)

PTC4 2004ƀ=-1AgraveƄɄǴ1ampH3ľĜAǭǝHamp2000ƀE 2004ƀ=-1Aɯņ1EumlHamp2004ƀsup24 PTCżǨɥ-GD10)ampamp2005ƀE 2009ƀ1ʟĴ3ƀŨTHORNş4˫ɱ1ŀdivideamp (AWEA 2010) Ǖƃ3Ǖʘȿʌ4$3ť0Gaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗1˞0ʪȽɱEacuteɲKAampEGɠķ

EgraveOacute1ļ+ͶoumlɯaRZn14PTC divideUgraveČ3sect3Eacuteɲ1DFļɆaRZn3ˬʹ]bn3 35KG˟gt-G (Bolinger 2010)ľĜ1D)4PTCdivideUgraveČ3˜Ĝɱ0ʪȽucircȁouml3ł REC3ĔTHORN1ʗ0GG4$HKĮG10G (Harper et al 2007)ĎȲ42

82 Ecircz 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ƿʛ-42008 ƀ3ʟĴ1Gdeg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKGǷĽġǮ3reg3Ĵ3ȣ3ampʟĴ3ſĹɱG4deg˘ɱ0aRZn3ɚƙKsup21˷ǥGraquoȜʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3aR

Zn]bnɚƙ4ĸĻ1D)ɮ0FˬOtildeşAņ

ĎȲ42 H4Ͷoumlɯ3oumlȥǛĸUcirc3 RECEgraveȉ)ampĸĻ1D)ɮ0GǘŅ3˞į1ŷęHG

67

821 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ1G3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ſĹˬOtildeş4 1998Έ1999ƀ3ʢ 35 MWE 2007ƀ3 120 MW

=-F2008ƀ14 83 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ1ˬʹHampͶ3Śȉş4 05 MWǵɄE 3 MW=-F2008ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn-4ſĹ 167 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ3ǰAˊɱ0Ͷ4Śȉaeligouml 15 MWgɷƑ 77 mtz 80 m (GE2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) -G

(b) BL0+Ouml ͶɅ34aRZn1D)ņ1ɮ0)Gszligiquestɱ14ʟĴ-4ɡƦɱ0Ͷȯ10)G

ʟĴ3aRZn3szligːǨ4ʢ 1800Έ4400 ǨŃuumlņ2008 ƀ14şdivideſĹ 3066 ǨˤŤHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ43szligːǨ3LJŚOacute4 2007ƀ1ˬʹH 2008ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+A3-ʟĴszligiquest3ͶɅ3ɉķƟK|b1ampA3-40ɏ1ɫƧ-

G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn4ƀɼś1ŀdivideG2008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZ

n14Ʒ]bn4ǰfrac12ʢ 1000kW1400okWͿE 1800kW2500okWͿƍ=-FşdivideſĹ4 1378kW19195okWͿ-G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ44

Ľġ1DH5Ͷ3ĕƊEgraveȉAƀǤtimesğ1)amp2008 ƀ3˕Ċȗ0E71$H1sup1ǪȥƔ1DG˞frac123Ɛ-Ͷ3EgraveȉD7AEligʬ3frac12ɣ G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009 Bolinger 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ14ijŚŃuuml3ǞĠ=H(E-˘ADş|b3]bn

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ʰƾʱͳ4Ńuuml-˘5 74MWh103oMWhͿijŚ-4ƀ 226kW314okWͿ-GĎȲ46ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3ʃʐ-42010ƀ=-3ʰƾKʢ 69MWh96oMWhͿBBfrac12˟ʏA)G (DOE 2008)ĎȲ47

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯɯaRZn3˺-4ˇŹ3otildeĜKaRZn|

b3OumlKlteampˇŹ3otildeĜ0)G34114ȞĘɱ1ɣɤʌdžǜʯɱ1˖JHampamp-GOuml1DG˺4ͶoumlɯaRZn3˺ǴKƊ=amp

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ĎȲ43 ˬOtildeeumlɥɞ 35ͼ1ļ+ ĎȲ44 ]bn4szlig 2008ƀƄ3D7o-˘ʆ2008ƀ 12DZ 31ǡsup23onjʙ1ɥampɐǯn4 1

139o (Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ45 NREL3atildemg|bELJŚampɤʌǓƱͳ3ſĹ ĎȲ46 2008ƀ3ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71szligːǨTHORNoumlsup3Ś1ļ+ ĎȲ47 ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71 2008ƀƄ3szligːǨTHORNoumlLJŚOacute1ļ+ 2008ƀo1ŃnjampLJŚOacute

68

1ijŚG40)ampE-GʟĴ3Ouml3ư4ż`bl3szligaeligouml1ťSrYŋʢEgraveȉ

Kbrvbarntilde1ȪŚK˞ȨG (Cory and Schwabe 2009)E14 2008ƀƔĄ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ouml1DG˺4Ĵ˕źľ3˕ȴuumlbZĮ3amp˕Ċȗ3ntildeȣ˒İ10

)G (Schwabe et al 2009) mccedilǿ-4 100ͼǷƷKsup3ŚG3˺4 2008 ƀ1ʟĴ1ǃregɱ1-40ʸF

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(f) s_CcedilN3N9A ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3˞0ĔTHORNɅ41ͿǴŋʢG4źľ|b3Egraveȉ1ļ+oumlD

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(g) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3mĀccedilǿ-4==0mgfbKɥampɚ1eumlɥė˃0agraveɱǛKUacuteYacuteamp

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Ʒ]bnʰƾ)ampŃǘ14Wiser and Bolinger 20093ecirc˘1E1˳˷ǥG

822 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

ɠķ=-3IʟĴ-4ĩɥˠȕ3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥAring40ƈˬ3aRZnA

0ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3Ľġ-4= 2012Έ2018ƀ1ĩɥȳͶoumlɯ3ɯaRZnȶȦĻƴ˗KɥǾȷųȫ-ɱ1˖JHG10GǴƒHGđʾ3amp-4currenƦHGȳ

ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKʆampʟĴ-ɥHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn4=œķ0

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(b) ccedil-1 ȳͶoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4Ńuumlņ2000 ƀdegĄ5E4ğtimesğ1GʟĴȚŵ-NjȊH

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ĎȲ50 3UgraveČ˩ɩ4ƀĄ53ƫAring1ļ+A3-2008ƀ 2009ƀ1eumlɥė˃)amp 50ͼĽŌUgraveČ4ʾƬ0

69

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US Offshore Wind Collaborative-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn4 3300kW4600okWͿ10GcurrenɂG (USOWC 2009)

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn=ɥH0ampʰƾ3currenƦ4˒ʄśƟG

ɯ˘HGmg40ʟĴȚŵ-NjȊHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ1G

ǰ3˟ʏF1DH5ʱ]bn4ʢ 137MWh19oMWhͿ10GĎȲ52

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯ3ɯD7ɥ1bZ˟=HF=ampɯBɥ3ʪA0amp

Ǝeacute3(4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bnaRZnDFA4G10GcurrenƦ

HGȳͶoumlaRZn3˺-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3cedilʭɱ0ƷưȠ0J(Igrave

middotʇͿ-40bZ˭şƄ3ƷưȠ0J(Ȥ3ˇŹǷͿeumlɥHGƝJHGAring5Ȥ

3ˇŹǷƷ1ƛ˞HGeumlɲɞ4ś˯Gƴ˗1 25Έ350GcurrenƦHG (Justice 2010)=ampʟǕƃ4ĩɥD7ǝɱaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗3$Hͳ-0Ouml1DGǷ˺KǓǎ

Gamp3˕OgraveTHORNIgrave˯KNjAEligG(EAȳƴ˗1ɥ-Gė˃ƟAGͿraquoɠ˖Ȱ-4

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n1Aeumlɥ-Gsup3ŚHGǕƃ3PdlOz14˫3 PTCɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČĠ=HGɚ1ǾȷųȫcopyņɃĸĻ3ŵ4ě3ʚĂ1GȳͶoumlɯaRZnKEuml

Gamp3==0ǞȰKeumlɥHE3aRZnKŨG (USOWC 2009)

(e) Q54Q1 ȳͶoumlɯ3ɚƙ1G˞0mgɅ4ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution

to US Electricity SupplyrdquoĽġǮ (DOE 2008)US Offshore Wind Collaborative3US Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo0E71ʟĴ3ȳͶoumlɯ1Gěʍ3Ľɯ˘ʗ-GraquoǰƔ3A314ȲƧƛ˞-G

Ugrave 8-3 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ53

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ54 ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 165 167 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ͷļǘ ļ 73 50 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ɯĎȲ55 szligːǨ 2891 3066 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1241 (1725) 1378 (1915) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʰƾ ijŚͿĎȲ56 eurokW ($kW) 50 (70) 50 (70) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʰƾ ŃuumlͿĎȲ57

euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (80) 58 (80) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

$3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆWiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ51 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ52 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ53 Yacute1ampD1]bn4szlig 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆ ĎȲ54 3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙ4ntildeʛ1ʆGȳͶoumlɯ4ʟĴ3 LCOEccedilǿ14Ġ0 ĎȲ55 eumlɥɞ 2007ƀ 33ͼ2008ƀ 35ͼsup3ŚG (Wiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) ĎȲ56 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampş|b3ʰƾ4 2007ƀ 2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG ĎȲ57 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampɯouml|b3ʰƾ42007ƀ2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG

70

(f) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 8-38-5 4ș1G LCOE ccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3sup3ŚKʆG]bn3sup3Ś4HA 2007 ƀ

2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1GA3-2008ƀƄ3o-˘GmD7ǞȰ3˳˷ǥ4Aring 1AumlKđɔHamp

Ugrave 8-4 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 100 100 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash WACC ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

Ǵ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ȰlaquoʌɞĎȲ58 ͼ 389 389 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FXnĎȲ59 $US 139 139 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆChadbourne and Parke 2009 Harper et al 2007 Schwabe et al 2009

Ugrave 8-5 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

oumlźľEgraveȉĎȲ60 euroMWh ($MWh) 382 (531) 419 (582) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

źľEgraveȉ˯ǥĎȲ61 euroMWh ($MWh)

˫1 Ġ=HG

˫1 Ġ=HG ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FITǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml |bͿĎȲ62

euroMWh ($MWh) 144 (200) 151 (210) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ 10 10 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 6 6 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆHarper et al 2007 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ58 LJŚHampǕƃŵǕƃ3ʌɞ4$HH 35ͼ 6ͼ-Gɏ1ɫƧ (Harper et al 2007)ŵʌ4ĔTHORNEdž

HGamp˜Ĝśucircʌɞ4 389ͼ-G ĎȲ59 szlig3]bn4 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆGamp2007ƀA 2008ƀA 2008ƀǶ3ɐǯnKɥamp

(Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ60 2007ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3EgraveȉˬŚ1Gsup3ŚAWiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+˥amp ĎȲ61 aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3LJŚͳKouml3źľEgraveȉ3˩ʙ1ĠG ĎȲ62 PTCnjʙOacute4 13frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORN

71

823 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯTHORNoumlvgKɥ2007 ƀ 2008 ƀ3 LCOE K˩ʙamp2008 ƀ3ʟĴ LCOE2008

ƀ3ʟĴ3sup3ŚKszligAumlɥͿKđɔb2008 ƀ3đɔb3szligsup3ŚKAumlɥͿȣamp$3ʫȁ4sup23F-G Ĵecirc3ěTHORNoumlŃǘKě3đɔb3sup3ŚEʟĴ3sup3Ś9ŀccedilɱ1degTHORNđɔbʟĴ3 LCOE

3Ÿɮ93ěŃǘ3ƐKLJŚ-GD1ampʟĴ3 LCOE 4 3 MWh4 oMWhͿ-đɔb3 LCOEDFAfrac12x 8-2đɔͿ

x 8-2 EcirczrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup363

(b) BL0+dj ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4ſĹˍō0Ͷȯ3ơƣKĖG-G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ|b3

aRZn-4ſĹ 3066 Ǩ3szligːǨǴƒHGđɔb-4 2628 ǨͿʟĴ-4aRZn3aeligouml0G LCOEđɔbDFAʢ 8MWh11oMWhͿfrac120G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAʢ 72 kW100o kWͿfrac120)G

2008ƀ3ſĹƷ]bn4đɔb 1449kW2029okWͿ-G31ťʟĴ-4 1378kW19195okWͿ-GǑĐ]bnͶoumlɯˬOtilde3ǑĐ]bnaRZn^Pn3ƘUcirc]bnĠ=HGͿ4szliggt3Ʒ]bn1Ġ=HGsup3ŚHGƕ)ʟĴ-4Ʒ]bnfrac12

G1HLCOEđɔbDFAʢ 2MWh3oMWhͿfrac120G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3˺]bn4ˇŹǷ|amp2008ƀ4 100ͼͿ=ampđɔb-4

Ouml1DG˺KɥGampđɔbDFA0)G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯaRZn3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ75ͼͿ4đɔb3Oumleumlɲɞ55ͼͿDFA 200|`bPn0)G ʟĴ-4ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 2007 ƀE 2008 ƀ1ŀdivideampH4ǕĊȗ1DFƕǽ3ǷƷŞ

ĎȲ63 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

72

KŊ)ampamp-G (Schwabe et al 2009)H4=ampư0Egraveȉ3frac34Ŗ)ampreg3ʊʌdžƷAĝȓ3ơƣKƖEHGD1GʟĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY3ʌdžǕʘ3Ɵ1DGA3-3Ǖʘ1DF 2007ƀ1ʢ 6ͼ3eumlɲNjAEligHHȇƉƷeumlɲɞ3KŚG10)amp (Chadbourne and Parke 2007)ʟĴ3˺]bn0GʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 8MWh11oMWhͿ0G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAfrac120)Gʰƾ4ijŚG4Ńuuml-˘-

G3ampđɔb3ȣ-4ŃuumlǼacute-˘ampnjʙćǛ3LJŚOacuteampʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJ

Śʱͳ4 7MWh10oMWhͿđɔb3 13MWh18oMWhͿK4G1Į)ampraquoĽġ1DH5ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯɤȐ4ʰƾʚɡ]bn3˟ʏF1G˞˹Ͳ1ɠķAɷFĽ

ġHampmg4Ǩřszlig-Gamp3LJŚOacute4ƪ1˥Gƛ˞G =ampʰƾ4aRZn3ˠȕũ0G1Hfrac12G˯ƻAG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

HAʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJŚͳđɔbȣfrac120)G3į-GʟĴ3aR

Zn3ˠȕ4đɔbDFAņampͿ=ampʟĴ3ʰƾ4ǝˠaRZn14=DzucircIgrave

˯Ǵatilde-Gamp1ʵĥHGė˃ƟGʟĴ3ʰƾfrac120GʟĴ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFAʢ 6MWh8oMWhͿfrac120G

(f) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4Ƿ]bn˺]bnG4szliggt3ʰƾ1Ġ=HGƦŚHGamp

ʟĴ3ccedilǿ-4ecircmĀ0reg3]bn14ʡʭɥʿ1DGfrac12ĶPob (LVRT) ˞acuteG4ɑucircouml]bnʗGN`^wbǛ4ż4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɷDž˹

HG40

(g) uumljfrac14divideWocirceumlCcediloslash Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ]bn4đɔbDFA0)GHE3Ǖʘ1

41ͿȰlaquoʌɞ2ͿȰlaquo˹ʌƯƖE3eumlőǓƱdžĠ=HGʟĴ3DzucircȰlaquoʌɞ389Ϳ4đɔb30ͿDFA$3amp LCOE0)GE1Ƿ1DG 100˺K˟L-GampʟĴ3 LCOE ˹ʌƯƖ3eumlőǓƱdž1D)ȿͳHG40ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFAʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ0)G

824 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj3˩ʙ1DFʟĴ3ĔTHORNŃǘouml RECͿ3OacuteKͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘȣGyacuteYj4=ĔTHORNǕʘAͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘKĠ

1˩ʙș1ĔTHORNŃǘ3gtKĠauml˩ʙGǰƔ1auml7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘKĠ˩

ʙG3ŀccedilsup3Ś1DFͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘ1ťGĔTHORN3ɸťɱEgraveOacuteKǥE1amp x 8-34ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘĔTHORN3ŃǘKȣHE 23D1ʟĴ3 LCOE

KȒƭGKʆampA3-G2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3 LCOEʢ 41MWh57oMWhͿ4ĔTHORNɅouml REC3łͿ-JHGʢ 24MWh33oMWhͿ4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHGPTCUgraveČ˩ɩ3divideͿotildeĜ-˘0EʟĴ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 24ĔTHORN-ȟF3 3ccedil3 14ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHG

73

x 8-3 Ecirczs_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup364

825 aringmH7B

ʟĴ3mĀccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash1 MWhndash1 oMWhͿ-G3EʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4aRZnɯ1ƛ˞HGyacute˞acuteKɄamp31ăccedil0Xj`

yKĔTHORND7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOzȉGľĜͿEƖG10G34

PTCżǨDzucirc-)amp 2005Έ2009ƀ3ƀͶoumlˬOtildeş3ʯɱ˫EAǥE-GH41ƀŨTHORNş4 PCT]bnɑucirc10)ampǨ1˒ȿŪG (AWEA2009)ĎȲ65

83 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+

ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ƀƞ1ƼņGH4Ͷȯż1ˍō-]bnȣɱfrac12ĔTHORN

Ʌăccedil1F=ampľĜ1D)4Dzɲ0ǕʘPdlOzKeumlɥ-GE-GʟĴ1Gɠķ=

-3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn4HA-śǟHampʟĴeacute0GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯ

EHGʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bn4ˊ1đɔbDFAfrac12H4SrYaeligouml

ņǷ]bnʰƾfrac121DGͶoumlɯ1GǕƃ3ǕʘPdlOzȜ

Ɖ1˴ŚHamp-Ĵatilde3Ņ3szlig-401AͿ3ɯaRZnEumlHG10)amp

E-GĔTHORNǕʘ3PdlOz3ɸiexclucircȁ1DFͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ3yacuteYj4lte10

)G

Ugrave 8-6 EcirczIumlsectpsup366

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

58 (81)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

60 (83)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

ndash1 (ndash1) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ĎȲ64 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ65 x 8-1đɔ ĎȲ66 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

74

rOtildemiddot

AWEA (2010) ldquoUS Wind Energy Industry Breaks All Records Installs Nearly 10000 MW in 2009 Manufacturing

Investment Jobs Still Lagrdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) news release January 26 2010 at httpwwwaweaorgnewsroomreleases01-26- 10_AWEA_Q4_and_Year-End_Report_Releasehtml

AWEA (2009) ldquoAmerican Wind Energy Association Annual Wind Industry Report Year Ending 2008rdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) at httpwwwaweaorgpublicationsreportsAWEA-Annual-Wind-Report-2009pdf

Bolinger M (2010) ldquoRevealing the Hidden Value that the Federal Investment Tax Credit and Treasury Cash Grant Provide to Community Wind Projectsrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL-2909E January 2010 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreportslbnl-2909epdf

Capewind (2010) ldquoCape Wind Signs Agreement to Buy Siemens 36-MW Offshore Wind Turbinesrdquo Cape Wind (Capewind) news release March 31 2010 at httpwwwcapewindorgnews1086htm

Chadbourne and Parke (2009) ldquoTrends in Tax Equity for Renewable Energyrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke January 2009 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication810dde60-3c78-4a9a-9c5d- a5fae8014b4fPresentationPublicationAttachment51fc06c5-1407-48ac-9dff- a605de0f58e1pfn0109pdf

Chadbourne and Parke (2007) ldquoThe Tax Equity Marketrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke April 2007 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication572b04b4- 905e-48e1-8f6b-0f520c4f2615PresentationPublicationAttachment573bdc6c-ff85-4f99-b4d0- 25a845907bccpfn0407pdf

Cory K Schwabe P (2009) ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financing Input Variablesrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL TP-6A2-46671 October 2009 at httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

DOE (2010) ldquoGeneral Loan Guarantee Program Frequently Asked Questionsrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) accessed April 2010 at httpwwwlgprogramenergygovfaq2htm

DOE (2008) ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution to US Electricity Supplyrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2008 at httpwww20percentwindorg

EIA (2009) ldquoAnnual Energy Outlook 2010 Early Release with Projections to 2030rdquo US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration (EIA) website accessed February 2010 at httpwwweiadoegovoiafaeoexcelaeotab_16xls

102Federal Reserve (2010) ldquoHistorical Rates for Euro Areardquo Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System website accessed February 2010 at httpwwwfederalreservegovreleasesh10histdat00_euhtm

GE (2010) ldquo15 MW Wind Turbine Technical Specificationsrdquo GE Energy (GE) website accessed April 2010 at httpwwwgepowercomprod_servproductswind_turbinesen15mwspecshtm

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review amp Comparative Analysisrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports63434pdf

Justice S (2009) ldquoPrivate Financing of Renewable Energy ndash A Guide for Policymakers UNEP Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative Bloomberg New Energy Finance Chatham House December 2009 at httpwwwchathamhouseorgukfiles15542_1209_financeguidepdf

Schwabe P Cory K Newcomb J (2009) ldquoRenewable Energy Project Financing Impacts of the Financial Crisis and Federal Legislationrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory technical report NRELTP-6A2-44930 July 2009 at

75

httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti44930pdf

USOWC (2009) ldquoUS Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo US Offshore Wind Collaborative (USOWC) October 2009 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreports63434pdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2009) ldquo2008 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2009 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports2008-wind-technologiespdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2008) ldquoAnnual Report on US Wind Power Installation Cost and Performance Trends 2007rdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy May 2008 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs43025pdf

76

Uograve AĂsup1agraveUumlaacute

shyocircMQ+Q

BL0+para

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

aRZn3gPn Project title

aRZnĞregĴ3QOo

yMȣGamp AringΆoPk3đɔQOoyM13

aRZn3ʍ͵ Project type

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ʍ͵ A4ȳ

Ͷļǘ Number of wind turbines

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

Ͷʱǘ$EěĴ3ɡ˼

3ſĹɱQOoyMͿ

ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

Śȉaeligouml Rated power

Ͷ 1ļ3Śȉaeligouml ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

gɷƑ Rotor diameter

Ͷ3gɷƑ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

ĖͶʏ Swept area

gͶKĖGszligʏ m2-˘˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

tz Hub height

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ƚĸɏ3ſĹ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽraquotz

3ſĹͶƀɯouml4ɷDž

EcircGͿ tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ

Lond term average wind speed at hub height

tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

Ȝģɯouml Net electricity production

QOoyM3ƀſĹȜ

ģɯouml szligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

ƺʌouml Tax capability

iacute΄ɑiacute ćɜ3aRZn3ľĜ

4ʌiacuteUacuteʘKszligeumlɥ-GͿG4

ˣmiddotʇKƾ3ľĜ4ˣmiddotʇ

Ǝ˲ƀƄ3ʌdžKszligDzucirc1eumlɥ-

GͿ4_Ƹ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4

Ĵʌ΄ʌ3gt1ɥHGŵʌBĸ

Ǟʌ4ńͿ Currency

szlig]bnĔTHORNPdlOz

ʗ3 2007ǫƀ 2008ǫƀ3$HHdeg˘ɱ0ǡ $HH 2007ƀ 12DZ 3ǡ 2008ƀ12DZ 31ǡͿ3ȣ1ļ+1ˬŚ

ijŚƀ]bnćfrac14 Fixed annual costs unit

ijŚʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kW

Ńuumlƀ]bnćfrac14 Variable annual costs unit

ƀʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kWh

ccedil-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ͷ Wind turbine

ͶD7ɯ˙ʹ3Yacute˖Ʒ

]bn ggtzgĖ

oPznPKƿʆGPy

YN~jZb`blxj

i`blzX`blpdt

77

Qa[ɯȗgzoͶ

ɥŃĶĬraraquoļʅG4ʡʭDž

ʯ4Ġ=reg-ƲͿ Ͷ3 Wind turbine transportation

ͶK˛ŶľEaRZ

nɯ^Pn1$1ˬ

ʹ-GD1Gamp3]b

n

Ͷ3aRZn^Pn93Křpound

Gamp1ɥEHG΄n

jZ]bnD7Z3]bnK

Ġ Ͷ3ˬʹ Wind turbine installation

aRZnƈˬǴ3Ͷ

3ˬʹ]bn ƈˬ3Z3]bnKĠ

ũ˩ΆͶ3]bn Sub-total wind turbine cost

Ͷ 3ļsup23]bn3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ļʅ Foundations

QOoyM1ƛ˞0ļʅ

3ʱ]bn ]Zn$3regQOoyM

3ěͶKǓG31ƛ˞0ȒǓȅK

Ġ Ȓatildeʡʭ Internal grid

QOoyM3ŃƯ93

Džʯ1ƛ˞0QOoyM

atilde3ȥʡʭ

QOoyMatilde3szlig3ʳQO

oyM3ŃƯ=-D7ŃƯ

3ʳKĠͿŃƯ1ʡɏDF

ntilde1ʡʭʡŃĶĬGľĜ4$3Ń

ĶĬ=-3szlig3ʳKĠ1șiacuteƗɯ`blKuziacuteƗGamp1ˬʹ

HampiacuteƗ˙ʹͿ3]bnKĠƯDzʿ

D7Ͷ˛brvbarȐʿ1ǖB˿ġKcedilamp

FͶKǒAcirc1DFuumlD7Ocirc

țampFɥʭ˩OacuteKƵǍGamp3

ɴˡiacuteƗ`bl (SCADA)G4QOoyMɴˡ`bl3ˬʹKĠ

ʡʭʡ[jo]o3

Ɇƻ Grid connection grid code compliance

QOoyM3ʡʭʡ1

ƛ˞0ŃĶĬǠœ3oumlʡʭ

-ƛ˞HGȥʡʭ

QOoyMEʡʭ=-3ʳ

0[jo]oɆƻ3amp1ȨE

HGegrave3divideɱ˙ʹĠ=HGQO

oyMʡʭʡŃĶĬKĠ˜ǘ3

ŃƯKDzGľĜʡʭʡŃĶĬ

ʡʭ3ʳ3gtKĠ ʡʭŀƍ Grid reinforcement

˄Ƌ0ʡʭ-4QOoyM

3ʡ3ampʡʭ3reg3ccedil

3ĶʤKG1DF

ʡʭKŀƍGė˃ƟG

Ǡœ3ʡʭ3ŀƍ1ƛ˞0˙ʹ

ŀƍdivideɱiacuteƗ$3reg3macrdivideɱ˙ʹKĠ

Ϳ

ŃƯ Substations and transformer station

ʡʭʡŃĶĬˇiquestD7$H

=-3ĂKĠampQOoy

M3ʡʭatilde1Gszlig3

ŃƯ3]bn

ʡʭ93ʡĸɏ=-ǜĬD7ǜ

ĬKĠŃĶĬ4ĶKǤĶGȥ

ȗĬ-GL3Ͷ4aeligoumlKʡ

ʭĶ1ǤĶGŃĶĬKDzG ũ˩Άȥʡʭ Sub-total electrical netgrid

ȥʡʭ1G˫ 4 ɶ3ũ˩

˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ˴˯ Certification

ʡʭʡG1amp)QO

oyMK˴˯Gamp3]

bn

˴˯Hampˬ˩IJ3]bnD7QOo

yM3ś3ƈˬK3ˬ˩IJȣ

G]bnKĠ ɢĿ˺Ȇ Environmental survey

QOoyM3ɯȠ-

ƛ˞10GɢĿ˺Ȇ3ʱͳH

4ěĴ3ɢĿƐ˰EgraveǮ3acirciquest

ɱ0˞acute1˟G-G

ȩȃ3ė˃ƟɊɇograveʗͿ ͷ|3LJŚ Ǫˤ93ˡˢɱƐ ɣɣəD7ɣƩʡ93ƈˬD7 3Ɛ ɚŚ3ͻ˓˔3ɴˡ `oQyjV3Oslash

Pysup2ń3ɯ]bn

3ũ˩ Non-infrastructure development subtotal

˫3Pysup2ń3aR

Znɯ3˫ 2ɶ3ʱ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

78

ʰƾˬOtilde OampM facilities

ʰƾȐyacute3˖1ƛ˞0

D7ǟˬKǝamp1ƈˬG

]bn

Ͷ3ƈˬ14aRZn3ˀ

ɥƀǘ3ʰƾgzo3

ɏȏ]bnD7ņĺĦ3ordfnj]bn $3reg Miscellaneous

˫3aRZnɯ]bn

1Ġ=H0$3regegrave3

]bn

3ĵĸƯDzʿ93˚Ugrave

ntilde3eumlőǓƱ Interest payment before operation

aRZnŐntilde1ǓƱ

ƛ˞10Geumlő3ʱͳ ż4ƈˬȠ3OumlD7Ͷ3Ͱ

ǓƱ3amp33Ńǘ4 1Έ2ƀatilde3yacuteŃǘ-G3Xj`y

mŐHGɥeacuteƀƄ1

4ntilde-ǓƱ]bnG reg3aRZnɯ]b

n3ũ˩ Sub-total other project development costs

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫frac14ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0

ľĜʱͳ-˘

aRZnƷ]bn3

ʱͳ Total project investment costs

˫ɯɶũ˩3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

q-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǑĐbZjEgraveͳK

Ϳ Decommisioning excl scrap value

ļʅKĠQOoyMK

ĵĸEǑĐG31˞G]

bn

QOoyMD7egrave3Py

ZʗͿ3˥iquestǑĐə

$3regegrave3ƛ˞0Ǖƃ˯ǥǮ3Acircƭ]b

n ĵĸ3ˇɓɛƩ93ĮƘ Returning the land to the natural state

ĵĸ3ɠɛĮƘ3amp3]bn aRZnřpoundamp1ɯɣ

bZjEgraveͳ Scrap value

ǑĐǨ3bZjǺǛ3łČ

EgraveOacute ʳʗaumleumlɥG4bZj

łČ-Gė˃Ɵ3GQOoyM

3ǺǛ ȜģǑĐ]bn Net decommissioning costs

˫ɶ3ʱͳ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

BL0+igraveeacute Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǨszligːǨmO

nKͿ Operational time full load hours excluding derate

szligːǨ4QOoyM

3ſĹƀɯoumlK$3

Śȉaeligouml-ampOacute-G

H4szligːǨ3Ĝ˩-F˩ɩɱ

D7˩ɩń3ʰƾʚɡ3amp3OcircțǨK

ĠszligːǨŅŚamp^P

n1GQOoyM3ɯouml

AŀdivideG szligːǨ3mOn Derate of full load hours

QOoyMʎOslash

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3ǏŊKĠ ȜģǨȜģszligːǨ

Net operational timefull load hours

ǨszligːǨEmO

nKƊampǨ ȜģǨ3Ĝ˩KĠG0J(m

OnKĠGͿ

ˀɥƀǘ Economic life

ƦŚHGaRZn3ˀɥ

ƀǘ3ǴaRZn]

bn3ʱͳKĮĔ0H50

E0Ϳ

AringaRZnKʮʯɥG-

ƦŚHampˀɥƀǘsup21ăccedilʎOslash-

GɛƩ1)ampAaRZn

3ȟœˀɥƀǘ4egraveĠ0 ]bn˩ʙ3amp3˩ɩť

Ǵ Time horizon for cost

LCOE˩ʙ3ť0GǴ _OacuteKTHORNouml0ľĜ4myTn

ˬŚ1DFˀɥƀǘ1ˬŚG

79

calculations

aringm Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ǵ Loan duration

ȽǴ3Ĝ˩ ͰD7eumlőǓƱKĠ

― źľeuml Loan - market interest rate

euml3Oacute43ư1D)

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fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml3ƖEHG Oumleumlɲɞ Return on debt

Ǵ1ȢƀƖEHG

euml ȢƀƖEHGeuml

ƛ˞HGǷeumlɲɞź

ľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivideʙ

KͿ Required return on equity excl market volatility risk adder

QOoyM3ǷƷŞ

ȨGeumlɲɞ Ƿ1Geumlɲ3otildeĜ

źľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivide

ʙ Market volatility risk adder

ʕyenɱźľ1đdivideǷeumlɲɞ

KGdividebZKƵǍG

KɶɱampA3

źľ1GcurrenƦń3ŃuumlbZKʾƬ

Gamp1divideʙGotildeĜ

ƛ˞HGƷǷ3Ȝ

ģeumlɲɞ Net required return on investment equity

ɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZ

nƷŞ93ǷeumlɲɞǷƷ

ŞȨGźľŃuumlƟ3b

ZKĠͿ

Ƿeumlɲɞźľ3ŃuumlƟKʾƬG

ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKƵǍGamp mZ-ɥė ˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ƿ3otildeĜĸUcircǷ3ƯDz

ȖKͿ Equity share excl local equity ownership

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp1ƻaeligGǷ3otilde

Ĝ

ͶǓƾ˙ʹPyʚɡ˺

ʗ3]bnKamp1ƷGǷ3

ʱͳ

Ƿ3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Total equity share

ĸUcirc3Ƿ3ƯDzȖ0E71ʱ

Ʒ]bn ˺]bnK

amp1ƻaeligGǷ3otildeĜ3

Ĝ˩

ĸUcircD7ĸUcircsup2ń3ƷŞNjAEligamp

Ƿ3ʱͳ

Ouml3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Debt share

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp3Ouml3otildeĜ THORNoumlGǷ3otildeĜ1ļ+˩ʙOacute

aRZn3ʱ]bn 100EǷ3otildeĜKƊampOacuteͿ

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate- municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠǘOacute

4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ȝģʌɞ Net tax rate

ǕƃĸǞŵǕƃ3Ȱlaquoʌ

ɞ3Ĝ˩ -˘ʆǕƃźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

80

shy MQ+Q

oacute-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

˛ȐʿNjAEligGʰƾʚ

ɡ]bn Manufacturer-provided maintenance

eacuteƀƄG4$3Ɣ1divide]

bn0-˛ȐʿNjAEligG

ʰƾʚɡ]bn

3]bn4żQOoyM3ˬʹ

]bn1Ġ=HGampeacuteǴ4e1

0G4-G

atildebgjy1DG˩ɩɱ

ʰƾʚɡ]bn Scheduled maintenance by internal staff

aRZnƯDzʿ3bgjy

1DGŚǴɱ0QOoyM

3ʰƾʚɡ]bn

bgjy1DGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

ń^wbŋʢ External service contracts

reg3˻Ȑʿ1DGŚǴɱ0Q

OoyM3ʰƾʚɡ]b

n

˻brvbarȐʿDGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

]bn Operation costs

QOoyM3ɥ1ƛ˞

0ƀ]bn SCADA KĠQOoyM3ƴ˗ɱɥ3amp3]bn-ʚɡ]bn-40

H14ecirc˷ǥͿǘOacuteȥcurren

ɂ3]bnKĠ ɏȏ Inspections

Ͷɏȏ3amp˻ȐʿK

ˇʇ-A˫3^wb˻

Ȑʿ-A0ľĜͿ

gzo3Ľġ2~4ƀȢͿĦ3ƴ˗ɏȏͶ 1 ļampF 2 ƀȢ1 1 ǡͿKĠɏȏ3ǨȂ4kW |b

-ˬŚ ˩ɩń3Icircɡ Unscheduled repairs

˩ɩń3Icircɡʰƾʚɡ ˙ʹ3ǖŇȥɛȯ$3reg3ńį1DG

ʰƾijŚͿũ˩ OampM costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ OampM costs variable subtotal

˫3Ńuumlʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝͳ-˘ ʚɡ Administration

QOoyM3ʚɡ

D7ɴɽ3]bn ʬƈəˇuumlD7ɗǛͿʗKĠ

Igrave Insurance

QOoyM$33

bZD7$3Ɛ1OtildeG

amp1ǓƱƀIgraveǛ

uumlɤIgraveǏŝUgraveuacuteɍ˚UgraveD7ɢĿ

)ampQOoyM1ɷDžEcirc

Gegrave3Igrave

ʡʭǛ Grid charges

ʡʭ93ʡ0E71ɥKǓ

ǎG31ƛ˞HGƀǛ

_4HKş|b3]bn

G4SrY]bnTHORNouml

G-G ʡʭ3]bnijŚͿ Grid costs fixed

˫3ʡʭǛ

ʡʭ3]bnŃuumlŃuumlͿ Grid costs variable

˫3ʬ˺ʛ]bn

^Pn3 Site lease

QOoyMKˬʹampĵ

ĸ3ƯDzʿ1ǓƱʱͳ Ͷ 1 ļ1macrǓƱľĜAʱͳ-ǓƱľĜAʱ]bn-THORNouml

G ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

aRZnşƀ

kWͿ1ļ+aRZnǓƱƀʌͳ

ͼ|b3ʌ4˫3Z`n-ƀ

șŃuuml30ŃǘTHORNoumlG

1ȲƧ-4ş|b3ʌKʆ

$3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG ȸouml Electricity consumption

ouml3ˇŹȸ ʡʭ3ĝǴD7ɯƯ3uumlʗ3amp

_4HEKş|bG4

SrY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ɢĿɂŚ˰Egraveʗ Environmental measurements evaluations etc

QOoyM3˴ė0E7

1KʰƾG31ƛ˞0ƀ

ɢĿɂŚ˰Egrave

_4HEKş|bG4Sr

Y]bnTHORNoumlG-

G

81

reg3ƀ]bnijŚͿũ

˩ Other annual costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚɢĿɂŚǛ

ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ Other annual costs variable subtotal

˫3oumlȸ]bn

ƀ]bnijŚͿ Annual costs fixed

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ƀ]bnŃuumlͿ Annual costs variable

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘

Ts_-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ƀźľđdivide]bn Annal market participation fee

ʕyenɱoumlźľ1đdivideGamp

3ƀ]bn źľɥʿʡʭɥʿ1ǓƱ

ʬ˺Ǚ]bn Balancing costs

ͶoumlɯKěǨ1oumlʡ

ʭ1DžʯGamp3]bnʱͳ

aeligoumlcurrenɂ1Gś3ŀccedil]

bn

kW]bn4ȜƉ0ʬ˺ǙźľKG43]bnouml3źľ

Egraveȉ1Ġ=HGampccedilG3İ

0ľĜAG_4HE3]bn

Kş|b3]bnG4S

rY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ŋʢ]bnĕƊǛʗͿ Contract costs (transaction fees etc)

ŋʢ3ʰƾ1ƛ˞0ƀǓƱͳ kWh-˘ĕƊǛ

reg3]bn3ʱͳ Subtotal other costs

źľđdivide]bnʬ˺Ǚ]b

nŋʢ]bn3Ĝ˩

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKşǦ1GĽ

Ō kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƟʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źľoumlEgraveȉ Market price electricity

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

ƀſĹźľoumlEgraveȉ kWh

źľ˯ǮEgraveȉ Market price certificates

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ3

ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kWhǕʘ1DFG4źľ|b-ˬŚHGľĜGǘOacute4ecirc

THORNoumlG FITĔTHORN Feed-in tariff revenue

FIT1DGĔTHORN ż4aR

Zn]bn3ǓƱ3amp3ŀ

ccedilǓƱŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞK

ʄIgraveG31Auml ouml3źľEgrave

ȉKĠľĜAG

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐKŐampƀƄ1

ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlHG

reg3ĔTHORN3ʱͳ Subtotal other revenues

˫3reg3ĔTHORN3Ĝ˩

Ccedil ― shyocircocirc

shyocirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ʌƊntildedž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as a before-tax credit

ʌƊntilde

3ʌdž1ťGntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊntilde

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGʌ|b3ntildeƱ˚

ugrave3otildeĜHĝ otildeĜaRZ

n3ʱͳoͿG4ˬOtildeşampF

3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ

82

|b3PdlOz4aRZn1

DGʌƊntilde1ɥHGƕ)aR

Zn1ťEgraveOacuteaRZn3eacute

ƀ3˹ʌͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3

ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜaRZnG

G4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3

ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ

4_Ƹ-Gʌdž4Ĵ

ʌ13gtɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ

|-40Ϳ ʌƊƔdž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave AringΆUgraveČͿ Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as an after-tax deduction (eg depreciation)

ʌƊƔ

3ʌdž1ļ+ntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊƔ

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGYacute˖ʌdžH

ĝ otildeĜaRZn3ʱͳoͿ

G4ˬOtildeşampF3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ|b3Pdl

Oz4aRZn1DGʌƊƔ1ɥ

HG3ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜa

RZnGG4aRZn

ƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-G

ˣmiddotʇKƾ4_Ƹ-G

ʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥHGƕ

)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront cash investment subsidy

aRZnszligiquest1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ aRZnƷ]bnʱͳ1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml-3Ƚė˃ ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKǁGamp mZ-ɥė˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

shyl Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

kW-ʆHGƀʌͳ ȢƀǓƱD7ƀșŃuumlGş

|b3ʌͳ FITĔTHORNAringΆɯouml|b3PdlOzͿ Feed-in tariff revenue (eg production based incentives)

FIT G4ɯouml|b3PdlOz1DGĔTHORN

ż4aRZn3]bnK

31˞ȨHGŀccedilǓƱ1

ŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞKdivideampOacute

ouml3źľEgraveȉKdivideGľĜA

G

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐɱɥKŐampƀƄ

1ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǨCcedilœǛiacuteƄKɥ

GĴoPkʗͿ4ƀ3ǘOacuteAring

$HƀK Ś0

AͿKTHORNoumlG FITǕʘǴ Feed-in tariff policy period

FIT G4ɯ˚ugraveǓƱJHGʱǨ

aRZn1ƦŚHGʪȽɱƕŎǴ

K0ʜı3Ǵɮ0H5 FIT3ǓƱ|Aɮ0)Gė˃Ɵ

83

GFIT ǕʘǴ3Ĝ˩OacuteK1THORNoumlG

ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž Production-based before-tax credits

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b30J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊntilde

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊntilde|

b-aRZn1ɥH

G

aRZn3ʌǓƱntilde1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGɯouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿƕ)aRZn1ťEgraveOacuteņaRZneacuteƀ3˹ʌ

ͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteK

ĖGćɜaRZnGG

4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDz

ucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gt

ɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40

Ϳ ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž3ǕʘǴ Production-based before-tax credit policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHGǴ

3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɯ|b3ʌƊƔdž Production-based after- tax deductions

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b0J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊƔ

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊƔ|

b-aRZn1ɥHG

aRZn3ʌǓƱƔ1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKĖGćɜaRZnGG4

aRZnƯDzʿĝƀƄ3ʌdžKDzucirc

1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥ

HGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ɣɤļɵ3džʌƊƔͿ

ǕʘǴ Production-based after- tax deductions policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHG

Ǵ3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power bonus

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKEumlGamp

3ĽŌ kWh

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƄʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWh

źľEgraveȉ˯Ǯ Market price certificates

źľG4Ǖƃ3Ǖʘ1D)

ˬŚHampQOoyM

3aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ

3ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kW_4ɮ0Gźľ-0J(ěʍ3źľEgraveȉ-Ϳłamp3˯

Ǯ3ȼĜdivideſĹźľEgraveȉKTHORNoumlG

divideUgraveČ Accelerated Depreciation

OtildeĦ3ͳK˺middot˩D

7ʌťʘUgraveČG˩ɩ ěƀƄ3UgraveČͳ4ɤ3ˀɥƀǘ3eacuteǴD

FBBƀ|b-eacuteǴƷʱͳ

3ͼˬŚG UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

3m-4_aRZn3

EgraveOacuteKUgraveČGƀƄ$3UgraveČɞKŚʻ

GșƀƄsup2ȢƀȟͳKUgraveČGǞȰK

ɥGĴ-4_UgraveČ˩ɩEgrave

ͳKdegɡȖ˖Auml1D)˟ʏG

dj

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

yacuteYj Financial gap

aRZn3˺1ƛ˞

HGyacuteYj ʱ]bn˺]bnͿEƛ˞

HGǷeumlɲɞ93Ʒ1ƛ˞0ĔTHORN

PdlOzKƊampOacute ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave Levelized electricity generation cost

QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘ

1QOoyM-ɣɤH

amp kWh3ɠķ3ǡſĹ]bn

szlig3]bnKĠƷaumlƷ

ʰƾͿĔTHORNPdlOz˺]

bnĹʗĀĎEgrave4otildeƊɞͶ3ˀɥƀ

ǘKɥ˩ʙ

• 表紙13
• 要旨13
• 目次13
• 第1章 7ヶ国の風力発電の財務コスト13
• 第2章 デンマーク13
• 第3章 ドイツ13
• 第4章 オランダ13
• 第5章 スペイン13
• 第6章 スウェーデン13
• 第7章 スイス13
• 第8章 米国13
• 付録A 変数および用語解説13

iii

`

ƽYjDpǀƽŊƻǁƋij 1h=N=aGKU(divideƖGKUƤƚųugraveƕ133+ƖƭƐƥGKU

4amp(THORNưŊƻƻƬƬǀŊƻƻƬǁĆAEligƃūĤntilde76GKUĵ79

ĪŔampƀ(ƽŊƻograveŊƻGKU9ƄŜ16rtlaquoĨ6GKUĵ7shy^lJE

UĘư9ƟUumlampqIacute6(Ƴ4ƽŊƻdivideƖŷ(ƽŊƻh=N=aGKU96Śszlig

őr^lJEU9ƯEacute67(ƽŊƻ^lJEUƊGKUYacutefrac34ƽƠčĬƸĎ

4amp7qźampƽŊƻƤƚųugraveƕamp(AumlOcircĻĈƕ133+ƩiexclķūĄampGKU

406raquoĖľccedil(61ƽŊƻGKU(shyfrac14ʼn60ĚAgraveplusmn

(ĸ9vegraveampƑ6 ĚœŝŎŋ(7nfrac14ƽŊƻGKUUgraveʼnbrvbarcedil9frac14ƹYjDpħƱ (IEA) ƽIcircċcentIacuteŠ 26

ŘƽŊƻGKUsAEligfrac14zœŝĮƛamp35łƇ66Ěœŝamp(Tm`pE

V=RAhmOK_=mKgtpTmK=KŦfrac14sect6ņlaquoŸTpNƳ476

0(xƶrƽŊƻograve9ocirc6ĴrƽŊƻograveGKUTpN1OcircĆ6Agraveplusmn

7135Hm^j9deg06 Ěœŝ(ĩ 2 ƧĤntildeamp6ƽŊƻGKUģƃ7Ʊ6AEligfrac14ưĮƛĝűĞ

9Ƒ6ĩampshyfrac14zœŝampƱshyfrac14yumlŖƀŋƽŊƻċƊGKU9ĝ6 ĝ(frac14amp3ʼn6ƽŊƻGKU9ƏĎ60xƃĶIacutepoundfrac34šiexclŊƻbrvbar

(LCOE) 9yacute6LCOE(ľIacuteƽŊƻ^lJEUh=N=aampƃ6GKUŴƈ9Łfrac12ampaacuteTHORNưŊƻƻƬampiquest frac34šiexcl6^lJEUthornIacuteƤƚTHORNĆ9Ƙńībrvbar2

Ō(LCOEampdeg0 LCOEƈţĊIJ(6ĚAgraveplusmnĒ(ĩ 2ƀŋƄƇ133+^lpP9ģƏ6

1(ƿĩIWiAƈň^lpP1 1(ƿszligƔCdQIelpĝ^lpP6ĚAgraveplusmnĒĝ(xƔCdQIelpĝ9vegrave6aringĝ(sectƒfrac14ƽŊƻ^lJ

EUampƱ6įưdivideƖIumlƄƇ9ƀ16 ĝ(AhmOYjDpœŝMmNp (ECN) LCOEthornIacute0ampƯŊK^kQVIpUamp

iquest CdQIelpcTj9ņ ECNcTj(sectƒfrac14GKUĤơ9ƽŊƻ^lJEUfrac14divideƖIumlƆĸ4ƀampņƌŭaacuteCdQIelpcTj6ĝ

(shyfrac14ƽŊƻ=mMmSlt]9uumlƵ ECNcTj9ņ135aring LCOEthornIacute(Ɓƭ9aeligAacutereg6 Ɓƭ9aelig LCOEĝűĞ(Ěœŝocircƒfrac14ưŽʼn6 ES-1ampŖƟ5frac14

LCOE(Tm`pE 61fplMWhǀ85VjMWh 61kWhǁ4K=K 120fplMWhǀ167VjMWh 12 kWhǁ6brvbarij1 Ƌij 2

Ƌij 1 qźampČĚņƎ(Ŋƻņƞ~Aringamp12thornƣņǀĀİņƽƙŧuacuteņƽƙUcircŻ

šǁoacuteĬ9 degqĊƽŊƻņƎ( 20 uũ~ƲŊƻņ ldquowind energyrdquo 6ņƎ(ľampćŹrăƺƳ5ƽŊƻƋcost of wind energyrdquo 6ņƎ(ƽŊƻGKUŲqƋ6

brvbarij1 ĹēkpU( 1fplDŽ139Vjƈţ Ƌij 2 ĚćvāţƀŖ(ŶƋŷamp36ƝĹēkpU( 1fpl100ƈţ

iv

ES-1 6CtNA LCOE2008Wl 3

frac34šiexclŊƻbrvbar

(LCOE) fplMWh VjMWh kWh

K=K 120 67 120 AhmO 94 131 94 V=R 85 118 85 K_=m 83 115 83

KgtpTm 67 93 67 Ŧfrac14 65 91 65

Tm`pE 61 85 61

Ɓƭ9aelig LCOE (ŊƻƻƬdivideƖGKUƤƚųugraveƕƖƭƐƥGKUfrac14amp3ʼn60AumlCcedil6yicircƟ5shyfrac14 LCOE acircƼĔ1Ccedil(yĘ76ŊƻƻƬ57(raquoĖƽıH=UƦoslashƽƙƊƈƃcedilampƗcedil6ƻUacuteAacuteĤơiexcl2ƽ

Ŋƻ^lJEUdivideƖiKEucircĊUacuteAacute1ƖĚŋăƖƭƐƥGKU$41CcedilAuml

8 LCOE ampacircƼ6ƽŊƻ^lJEUƤņampƗcedil6GKU(frac14amp3Ccedilʼn1357amp( LCOE 1CcedilacircƼ6ƤƚųugraveƕAgraveplusmnTpNƇƪamp(ijiumleacuteƃ6shyfrac14ư LCOE AumlampƱ6ľccedilŋƃcedilamp(Įƛĝş133+ĚAgraveplusmnĒfrac14zœŝş4ampƌyacute ĔaumlampLOCEƈţēŋ^lpPampťpoundampƜ-6)ƿĩƈňŢIacuteIWiA(ƿszlig

aacuteCdQIelpoacuteIJ(poundŪiexclĊIJ LCOE 9thornIacute6poundŪoacuteIJ(ĎŔƖƭƐƥĘưCdQIelpŰĐŋAumliexcl9icircIacuteampƖƭƐƥoacuteĬqľccedil9ƀ3qźŋ

aacuteŀ9Ʀ635poundŪƿĩƈňIWiAoacuteIJ(6[hbpNĆ9ĔOacuteƳampƌŭ

ŚszligampecircAEligśAEligĥŊƻLCOE9ETHďampĮƛ63amp6aringLCOEshyśƈţ(7ampņĊIJ2ģeuml9ĪŔampő6eacuteƃ5Įƛ133+Ƈƪ(ethƫampžė

Ƌij 3 ƀvāţƀŖ(ŶƋŷamp36ƝĹēkpU( 1fpl100ƈţ

v

v h

` iii

| 1 72NCtE 1

11 1 12 vu]k 1 13 CtO~FH 2 131 GKUƃū 132 copy=mMmSlt] 133 AringƧigrave 134 LCOEcTjƏĎ 135 cTjiquestĚŋGmM^U 136 LCOE FGƈţ 14 IDN6Ct 6 15 QK$4 s 6 16 JN$ZTLCOEIn4 6 17 LCOESNj 8 18 IDNm6Ct 11 19 9 LCOE]k 13 110 LECOEBXqj 13 111 14

| 2 $1+4 16

21 $1+4Ctf 16 211 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 212 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 22 $1+4 2008Wu13Ct) 19 221 ƶrƽŊƻ 222 ĴrƽŊƻ 223 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 224 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 23 $1+4Ct) 25

| 3 amp 28

31 ampCtf 28 311 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 312 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 32 ampu1363m6Ct) 30 321 ƶrƽŊƻ 322 ĴrƽŊƻ

vi

323 V=Rƶr^lJEUǀ2008THORNǁsectĺFpKGKUĮƛ 324 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 325 copy133+ăĂbBXLa 326 ƔDdQ^ 33 34

| 4 -1 36

41 -1Ctf 36 411 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 412 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 42 -1u13Ct) 37 421 ƶrƽŊƻ 422 ĴrƽŊƻ 43 -1Ct)McpY 39 431 AhmOƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ 432 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 433 copyăĂbBXLa 434 ƔDdQ^ 44 41

| 5 1 43

51 1Ctf 43 511 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 512 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 52 1 2008Wu13Ct) 46 521 ƶrƽŊƻ 522 ĴrƽŊƻ 523 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 524 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 525 ƔDdQ^ 53 1Ct) 50

| 6 4$1 52

61 4$1Ctf 52 611 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 612 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 62 4$1u13Ct) 53 621 ƶrƽŊƻ 622 ĴrƽŊƻ 623 KgtpTmƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ 624 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 625 ƔDdQ^ 63 4$1Ct) 57

| 7 60

71 Ctf 59

vii

711 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 712 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 72 u13Ct) 60 721 ƶrƽŊƻ 722 ĴrƽŊƻ 73 Ct)McpY

61

731 GKUĮƛ 732 copyăĂbBXLa 733 ƔDdQ^ 73 63

| 8 N 65

81 NCtf 65 811 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 812 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 82 N 2008Wu13Ct) 66 821 ƶrƽŊƻ 822 ĴrƽŊƻ 823 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 824 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 825 ƔDdQ^ 83 NCt) 73

A Rr 76

viii

L5

ordm 1-1 ƽŊƻGKU ordm 1-2 ƔDdQ^ī6copy=mMmSlt]amp36ŊƻGKUŐĭ ordm 1-3 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14ŊƻƻƬǀƓżĐưǁ9sup2űĞ ordm 1-4 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14divideƖGKU9sup2űĞ ordm 1-5 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14Ƥƚųugraveƕ9sup2űĞ ordm 1-6 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14ƖƭƐƥGKU9sup2űĞ ordm 1-7 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14Ĥntildeƃū9sup2űĞ ordm 1-8 shyfrac14xƃGKU[hbpN LCOEacircƼ ordm 2-1 Tm`pEƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 2-2 TmsectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 2-3 Tm`pEƢŨGKUGKUƨcTj ordm 2-4 Tm`pEcopyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 3-1 V=RTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 3-2 V=RƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 3-3 V=RƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 4-1 AhmOTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 4-2 AhmOsectĺFpKĮƛordm ordm 4-3 AhmOƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 5-1 K_=mTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 5-2 ƅĈƭKCpathornř ordm 5-3 UacuteAacuteA^Igmamp136ĔŮǀUacuteAacuteĠǂAgraveEgraveƭǁ ordm 5-4 ƻyenUacuteAacuteamp136ƽŊƻETHƬǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 5-5 YacuteČƻ^pjĠAumlŀTHORNYacutefrac34ǀ2003Dž2009THORNǁ ordm 5-6 2008THORNampƊŵ7ƽƙH=LƋ ordm 5-7 K_=m133+sectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 5-8 K_=mcopy133+ƽŊƻąŢ=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 6-1 KgtpTmTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 6-2 KgtpTmƽŊƻGKU ordm 6-3 KgtpTmƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 7-1 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 7-2 K=KƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ ordm 7-3 K=KƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 8-1 Ŧfrac14THORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 8-2 Ŧfrac14133+sectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 8-3 Ŧfrac14copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ

ix

5

ƀ ES-1 ƶrƽŊƻfrac14 LCOEǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-1 ƽŊƻ^lJEUƖĚdivideƖGKUƃū ƀ 1-2 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻoumlſŋ[hbpNǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-3 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻƔ[hbpNǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-4 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻ LCOE FGǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-5 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEUoumlſŋ[hbpN ƀ 1-6 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEUƔ[hbpN ƀ 1-7 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEU LCOE133+ FG ƀ 1-8 aacuteŀ LCOEĊIJĮƛ ƀ 2-1 Tm`pEƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (MW) ƀ 2-2 Tm`pEƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW) ƀ 2-3 ƓżĐưampiquest FIT9deg06Z]ƿlpNŏatildeŊƻħETHƬʼn6 4ƽƙŐNtildeŋ

ƀ 2-4 ƓżĐưampiquest FIT9deg0Z]ƿlpNŏatildeŊƻħETHƬʼn6 4ƽƙŐNtildeŋ ƀ 2-5 Tm`pEƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 2-6 Tm`pEƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 2-7 Tm`pEƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ƀ 2-8 2007THORN 2008THORNTm`pEamp136ƽŊƻ LCOE0 ƀ 3-1 V=RŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-2 V=RTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-3 V=RƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 3-4 V=RƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 3-5 V=RƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 3-6 V=RűĞ0 ƀ 4-1 AhmOŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-2 AhmOĪsup2THORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-3 AhmOƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 4-4 AhmOƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 4-5 AhmOƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 4-6 AhmOűĞ0 ƀ 5-1 K_=mŬŜƊŵƬ (GW) ƀ 5-2 K_=mTHORNưOgraveƬ (GW) ƀ 5-3 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 5-4 K_=mƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 5-5 K_=mƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 5-6 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEU0 ƀ 6-1 KgtpTmŬŜƊETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-2 KgtpTmTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-3 Lillgrunden^lJEU ƀ 6-4 KgtpTmƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 6-5 KgtpTmƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 6-6 KgtpTmƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

x

ƀ 6-7 KgtpTműĞ0

ƀ 7-1 K=KŬŜƊETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-2 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-3 ƖƭƐƥGKUƈţ

ƀ 7-4 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 7-5 K=KƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 7-6 K=KƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

ƀ 7-7 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEU0

ƀ 8-1 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-2 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-3 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 8-4 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 8-5 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]

ƀ 8-6 Ŧfrac14űĞ0

1

Aring 1Auml 7Ozuumljfrac14dividearingm-1

11

2009 ƀȚŵĜ (EU) 4Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşKǝamp1 10163 MW divideʟĴ-4 9994 MW Kdivideamp (EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)3 2009ƀ1GˬOtildeş3ŀdivide1DFͶoumlɯ4 EU-4ǰņ3ʟĴ-4ʖ 2frac143ǝamp0Ʌ0)G(EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)ɪɱ1AsectĀɎʥǃaeligethȿĀʂɗǛ3ŘszligIgraveBŘŚAEligʬ3ĪͲ)ampǘ3ɡɦ1DFͶoumlɯ3˞40)G szligɪ-ͶoumlɯɯKŮ-Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bnCcedilɓŝ10)Gė˃

ƟAGͶoumlɯ3ƷŞ4ͶoumlɯƯ3PygP]bn1aRZn3ɯ˩ɩ1ĕF

)ampǨɏEȣɱʄ0ʀ˾Kƾ)GH4ͶoumlɯɯaRZn3ˬOtilde]bnſĹͶKǣ

Ƞ-ʀG-GE-F=ampͶoumlɯ3Ńuumlˊ1Ū0ɗǛ]bnEsectĀɎ

ʥAǃaelig0E-G3D0ijDz3ɚƙG1AͶoumlɯ3]bn463Ĵ3

-AaRZn1=ampěĴņɮ0)FǷʃʐ-43ɏ1ɒɏKƎG

12 frac34frac12sup2

Ƿʃʐ-4ĴSrYȗͶoumlśǟąŚʖ 26ccedilʉmiddot (IEA Wind Task26)Ͷoumlɯ3]bn131ļ+ěĴ3bʃʐKɥ7 Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3ɸ3ĎįKDŽGđdivideĴ4mZoPkUhbPbQRmbPbʟĴ-G Ͷoumlɯ]bn3˟ʏF-4Ʒ]bnʰƾ˺]bnƀɯoumlɯoumlͿ

)ampǘŅ3Ȓƭ˞ʥK˰EgraveHE3]bn3ȵHaRZnǴszligiquest-ŃĀGKDŽGƛ

˞G3aRZn-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnK˷ǥȣGamp3˞0ɂŚćfrac14ĹʗĀɯ

ĎEgrave (LCOE) Kȏ˪ampLCOE 4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3PygP]bn3Ĝ˩OacuteKɠķ1otildeƊƀɯouml1ļ+ĹʗĀampOacute-GLCOE4ɮ0Gˤɏ1ʑ)ampěʍ3ǞȰBưȰKɥ˩ʙG-GǷĽġ-4HE3ˡɏD7Ni3(ș`pU˩ɩȰƄyacuteX

j`yccedilǿȰ3 2KɥG ǷĽġ1Gccedilǿ3ņccedilȤƷŞ3ˡɏEěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnK˰EgraveampA3-

GDFacirciquestɱ1˧5ǷĽġǮ3 LCOE ccedilǿʫȁ4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴatildeƷŞěɥampmǞȰKɥěˇ3aRZn3K˺GbrvbarAring13Ĵecirc3yacute]bnK˘ampA3-GɫƧ

4Ƿʃʐ1Gyacute]bn3ȣ4Ͷoumlɯ3ʇmiddotɱɥ0J(3SrY3eumlɥ1

DFʇmiddotƺG]bnͿK˰EgraveampA3-40-G Ͷoumlɯ3yacute]bn3˩ʙ-4ͶoumlɯaRZn1Gˬʹ˺1ƛ˞HGegrave

3Ǔaelig1GccedilǿʫȁK˘1G3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʣ]bn3˰Egrave1divideěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ

aRZn3ƯDzʿeumlɥ-GĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3PdlOzK˷ǥ˽Ĵ-ɣ G]bn˞ʥ3

KǥE1G ǷĽġǮ-4= LCOE KȒƭG]bn˞ʥKʞć1˷ǥș1ǷaRZn3-ɯHampb

jo`nm1˷ǥGěđdivideĴENjAEligHampmg1ļ+đɔbKŚʻ˽Ĵ1aacute

Gȣ3PnKǥE1GěĴ3ĎEgrave˞ʥKđɔbȣͶoumlɯ3 LCOE 3ŸɮKɣ GĎįKǥE1Gș3dZ`-4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEdegǯɱǞȰKʞć1˷ǥͶouml

ɯ3ĹʗĀĎEgraveK˩ʙGș1đɔb-Śʻamp]bn˞ʥ1ļ+LCOELJŚOacute3K˷ǥɥGǞȰ31D) LCOE ŃJ)GKś˯GǰƔ3ʒ-ěđdivideĴ3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3]bn˞ʥK=˷ǥGsup2ǷĽġǮ3ȑ˞-G

2

13 uumljfrac14divideAElignp[

131 -1UacuteIgrave

Ͷoumlɯ3]bn˞ʥ4ǷƷ]bnʰƾD7˺]bn-GHEě

1ěʍ3]bn˞ʥĠ=HGǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampIuml3]bn˞ʥ4Uograve A1ʆF-G ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ņͳ3ǷƷKƛ˞$3Ȓƭ˞ʥ4Ͷ-0ŅʍŅȓ-G

Ugrave 1-1 1ʆD1Ʒʱͳ3ʢ 75Ͷ3]bn-FȟF4˘1=ampD1ʡʭʡļʅˬʹ0E71ƈˬ1G]bn-GHE3]bn4oPkmZbPˏĴ33m

g1ļ+GǑĐ]bn4aRZnŐǨ1ʄIgrave3]bnKƎeacute3ǷƷ1ĠG

KʻyacutemacrGĴAG

Ugrave 1-1 uumljfrac14divideBL0+ccedilyenccedil-1UacuteIgrave

ʱ]bn1ĈGotildeĜͿ reg3]bn1żĈGotildeĜͿ ͶŶľɀͿ

ʡʭʡ ļʅ

ȥˬOtilde ĵĸ

yacute]bn ƈˬ

]^gn

68-84 2-10 1-9 1-9 1-5 1-5 1-5 1-3

ndashndashndash 35-45 20-25 10-15 5-10 5-10 5-10 5-10

ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

ʰƾ4Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥ-ż4IgraveʚɡD7ŚǴɱIgraveŗɏȏ^wbŋʢ

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Gsup3Ś˟ʏFK˖ŅͶoumlɯaRZn-4ƀ3ɗǛ˞-Fƕ)

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71macrGOumlD7Ƿ3Ȓƭ˞ʥAĴ1D)˒ɮ0G=amp$H1ťǴƒ-Geumlɲ1

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Gyacute]bnʱͳ1ƐG x 1-14Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3˟ʏF1Ġampěʍ3]bn˞ʥƷ]bnƀʰƾyacuteŃǘʗͿ

KʆampA3-GͶoumlɯaRZn3ǰʨɱɣɤə4ouml-GampLCOEKƀɯouml-ĹʗĀGƛ˞Gɯouml4Ͷ3əɡɱɚƙD7ɚŚ3aRZn^Pn3ͶɅ3ɚƙ1ŷęHG

132 s_N3N9A

ouml4ͶoumlɯaRZnƯDzʿłGĩĦ-oumlźľ4Ĵ1D)ɮ0G3aRZn4Ͷ

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1DGĔTHORN1divideěʍ3PdlOzKAuml)Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKʄś1ĮĔ-GD1GH

E3PdlOz14ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ(FIT)ɣɤ1Ɯ ampʌͳdžaumlɣė˃SrY˯ǮG4reg3VqcG

3

x 1-1 uumljfrac14divide-1 ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

133 icirc

Ͷoumlɯ1Gɶ3Ņ=žĀHEHE4ĔTHORNB]bn3˰Egrave1Ġ0

HE4ɯƴ˗3oacuteșɱƐ1GńƟG4ʇmiddotɱɥ-Gˊ1aumlɣė˃SrY3ƴ˗4

ƕǽĺɅ3ƴ˗1ȣńƟ3Ɛż1Ū0IEA3 ldquoRenewable Energy Costs and Benefits for Society (RECaBS)rdquo aRZn-4ǥƟ3ǞȰKɥƕǽĺɅaumlɣė˃SrYɅKȣɯ3]bnEacuteɲKLJŚG (RECaBs 2007)ReCABS3ǞȰ˼1DH53ccedilǿ14ș3 53ńƟĠ=HG

ȥNtildeŃuumlɁŜucircȁWbɚ1 CO2D7 CH4Ϳ reg3ņȥȩȃɅSOxNOxD7ʠőͿ ʡʭʡoumlPy93divide]bn oumlʬ˺ǙͶ3şZajnˮȲ 41DGȿͳʗͿ

ɗǛAEligʬ3ŘszligIgraveɗǛTHORN3ĴatildeɅ-3degɥ HE3ńƟ1divideͶoumlɯ4ɗǛ3ȸB$H1sup1ɗǛEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ŷęH0Ͷoumlɯƴ˗

93ƷbZ4ĀʂɗǛ1DGɯƴ˗3bZyMPɮ0GHEszlig3ɚƙ1DFͶoumlɯ

ƴ˗reg3ɯƴ˗3EgraveOacuteNjȊ1G˞0ɚƙɣ GǷʃʐ4$3ȣ˰EgraveK˱gtampA3-

40

134 LCOEGKaacute

UhSrYʃʐdg (ECN) AcircƭampXj`ym4ǷaRZn1G

ˮȲ 4 şZajn (capacity credit) ʡʭŘŚƄ1ƤƐK0ʜı-Ͷoumlɯ1D)ƕǽĺɅHʹnj

EHGKʆȣɞAring5 şZajn 303ľĜǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ 1 GW1ťƕǽĺɅK 03GWȿEG-GşZajn1G˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

4

LCOEyacuteYj (FG) 3˟ʏF3ļɵ0)G3 ECNm4otildeƊXj`ym-Ǝeacute4Uh1Gaumlɣė˃SrY3˚ugrave3ɯAEligʬĽŌK˩ʙGamp1AcircƭHampA3

-Gɠķ ECN43mKɥUhǕƃ1ěʍaumlɣė˃SrYƸ˂3ɣɤ]bnK3ʋƄ1ugrave˧GIEAWind Task26KɯŮ-đdivide˽Ĵ3]bnȒK˟ʏAGamp3mKIcircȜƼņͶoumlɯ3]bnKȄ˳ʧ1˩ʙ-Gkamp3mKȒƭ

G34ɯƯ^PcǨszligːǨˀɥƀǘƷ]bnʰƾaRZn3˺

3ɚƙ)ampmĀ3amp3vg0E71Ɓʜ0vg-GěĴD7==0ˠ

iacuteiquestiacute13mKɥ-$3ȗ˃ŅɥƟǔīHGAring5Xj`y

mKǔ˨ͶoumlɯaRZn3ěˠiacuteiquestiacute1ƕ==0ƴ˗ɱyacuteɱvg1ɥ-

GD1amp3D0Ȅ0m4Ʒ]bnʱͳ3˩ʙ3gt0Eěʍ3ɥ3ɚƙByacuteưȠ

0E71ĴQOoyM3PdlOzK˷ǥG-˞-G

135 GK|yenfrac12-N3B

Xj`ybjo`nKɥͶoumlɯ3]bnK˳ʧ1˩ʙG$3szligvgKUograve A1ʆ3bjo`nm4 6 3Z`n-ȒƭHǰeacute3 3 3Z`n4ɚŚ3Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3˩ʙ1ƛ˞0˳ʧƥĽKNjAEligGamp3A3-G ǰeacute3Z`n4ƀșŃuuml3013ŃǘKŚGA3-GH14aRZn3ɚƙƷ]b

nʱͳǑĐ]bnʱͳĎȲ2szligːǨ1ɔEampǨ]bn˩ʙ3˩ɩťǴĠ=HGƷ]b

nǑĐ]bn4ěʍ3Ȓƭ˞ʥ3ʱͳ˘-GH4ś3]bn3Ÿɮ3ŅĴȣ3

amp3ƥĽKNjAEligHG=amp3Z`n1DFPyŃuuml]bnŀK˷ǥGampͿOumleuml

ɲɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞ0E71OumlǷȣɞaRZn1macrGyacutebZKēǧGampͿ)

ampěʍ3yacuteŃǘKŚG-GE13Xj`ym4ĴBŵ3ȰlaquoʌKʾƬampA

3-G ƀșŃuuml13Z`n14ʰƾĸdegʡʭ]bn)ampƀijŚŃuuml-ȒƭHG

ěʍɶĠ=HFHEK˳ccedil͵ěĴ-ȣ-GD1G=amp-ȥǛBʧ

ȪŚ˞įŋʢ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnʗͿKŚʻG ʖ 33Z`nǕʘ13-4ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT)ʌͳdž$3reg3PdlOzKȏ˪G

3m3U`ȿʌ3EacuteɲKaRZn3Xj`y1ŚampFɑiacuteĎȲ31

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13D7LCOEXj`y13Z`n-˖

136 LCOE FGYacuteEgrave

LCOE FG4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEXj`yK˩ʙampʫȁ-GampĞɶ3ʌƊƔǷeumlɲɞKLCOE FG3otildeƊɞɥGraquo LCOE FG14ě3˩ʙ1ɮ0GXj`y3ȵHKĠGH1sup21ȑ˷G ż3ľĜLCOE3Ľġ14ƷǓaeligƀ]bnȿEgraveUgraveČD7ƸampotildeƊɞAumlJHGƕ)

3Ȃʩgtatilde1G LCOE 3˩ʙOacute4ƷǓaelig3ƾccedilotildeĜszligǴ3otildeƊʌƊƔXj`yʱͳKeȜģɠķEgraveOacute (NPV) G31ƛ˞0ɣɤCcedilœeumlɲŚʻHGLCOE3˩ʙ-4ɯG4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɚecirc1ɥHGPdlOzE3ĔTHORN3Xj`yKʾƬ0

ECN3 LCOE˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

ĎȲ2 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4ǑĐ]bnKaRZnƈʝǴ1ʄIgraveKĴʻyacutemacrGľĜ3gt3]b

nKĠamp ĎȲ3 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4szlig3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKɑiacute13sup3Śamp=Feumlɥė˃0szlig3ȿʌ3ơƣKřszlig1ĖEH

GD0Xj`yăccedil1œķG-G

5

H41ɠķ FG3˩ʙ-4Ͷoumlɯ1ijDz3ɯɱPdlOz3Xj`yfynYacute˖Ʒʌļɵ3ƷugraveƭʗͿKʾƬG3Śʻ1ļ+brvbarś FG1D)ěĴ3 LCOEɯ0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ɱPdlOz1DFśɠHampeumlɲ3K˘G

ECNm3 FG˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

˫3D1ʌƊƔ3ƀXj`y14ouml3łĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3˚ugraveƱƮD7P

dlOzƀʰƾȽeumlƢǓƱ0E71yacuteľ3ȿEgraveUgraveČeumlődž3ʌƊƔͳ

E3Xj`yĠ=HG x 1-24LCOEƖEHampĔTHORNoumlźľĔTHORNFITAEligʬĽŌʗͿPdlOzD7yacuteYj

3EcircKʆampA3-G3IJ1ʆD1FGOacuteȜ3ľĜ4aRZnɯʿ3 LCOEK31ƛ˞0ĔTHORNƖEH0)ampƧģ-F3ľĜ4 LCOE KG3ăccedil0ĔTHORNƖEHampKʆĨG

x 1minus2 aringmH7Bmacrs_N3N9AampgtKQ-1Agravedeg

ʌƊƔ3Xj`yt

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ ndash

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

FG =

1 ndash ʌɞ times ƀʰƾ t ndash ʌɞ times euml t + ʌyacute3ȿEgraveUgraveČ t

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ +

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

LCOE =

6

14 rkzoumlRuumljfrac14divide-1

șʛ-4 Ĵ3aRZn3ǎugraveKGĴatildeƷŞ1)3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKđdivideamp 7Ĵ3Ĵecirc1ʆH14 ECN3mǞȰ˼KɥG˞0Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3ŃǘKŅĴ-ȣG1DFěĴ3ccedilFͶoumlɯaRZn3|bP]bnǥʄ10Geumlɥ

ė˃0mgEHGampȳͶoumlɯ3]bn4˳ʆ0ĽġHamp]bnmg3

Ūǘ3^KĠG

15 vQ5otildeordm

3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnƟ˃0E71yacutemgszligiquest3ȜʄDzucircƟKaeligǽGF˯ǥD

ampmgfb4ŅʍŅȓ-FĽġHampmg34ĴD7mgfb1DFɮ0)G

Aring5ĽġHamp]bn3mg42008 ƀ3ͳ-˘ampɠķEgraveȉK˘G3ŚEgraveȉǥʄ-0brvbarAringAG=ampsup21ǀGvgA2008 ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlaRZnK˘amp3A3-Gś14 2008ƀntilde1ɯȲHǓƱJHampbrvbarAringKĠGė˃ƟGmgEHGampampɉķɱ0ɿɹKIcircȜG-0)ampE1 IEA Task264ěĴ3deg˘ɱ013aRZnK˘KƧIJampA3-GͶoumlɯ3ś3]bn4^PnaRZn1D)ɮ0G

ƕ)sup23mg4ěĴ3szligˊɱɛȯ˷ǥ3amp3gt1ʆampA3-3ɏ1ɫƧ-G

16 tzGKLCOErmicroQ1

Ͷoumlɯ3Ĵecirc3]bnļǷampaRZn-4đɔb13Ĥ8ͿȣHG

3đɔb4ěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3deg˘ɱ0Ȓƭ˞ʥK˘A3-ƴ˗ɱvgaRZn3ɚƙƟ

˃Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bnʰƾʗͿyacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞ

ǴĴ3ʌɞʗͿ3ǞĠ=HGđɔb-4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘKńG=ampͶoumlɯ

KǓǎGĕFʩgt4Ĵ1D)ɮ0GampͶoumlɯǕʘBPdlOzAĠ0ƕ)đɔ

b-4 LCOE3˩ʙʫȁ3gtK˘ʆG Ĵecirc3ƴ˗ɱvgKUgrave 1-21ʆĎȲ4đɔb-43ěvgKszlig3Ĵ1Ga

RZn3ˬOtildeş3divideſĹ˩ʙGđɔb3ƴ˗ɱvg3OacuteA3˘1ʆF

2008 ƀ3ˬOtildeşȣɱņ)ampbQRmʟĴ$HH 98MW85MWͿ-ƄĜņ0)G7 Ĵ- 2008 ƀ1śǟHampdeg˘ɱ0aRZnKŅŪ0FAēǧ-GD1đɔb3divide14Ĵatilde3ʱSrYş-40aRZn3ˬOtildeşKɥGđɔb3aRZ

nȒʝ14==0Ƹ˂G$3ƸĴecirc3 LCOE G4 FG ˩ʙ1ƐG40ɏKƿǐG34˞-GđɔbNjAEligG342008 ƀ3Ĵecirc3ʫȁKȣGamp3ˊɱ0ɏ10 Ugrave 1-3 4Ĵecirc3yacutevgKʆampA3-Gě3yacutevg1szlig3Ĵ3ʼnOacuteKđɔ

b3OacuteɥGYacute1ampD1đɔb3˩ʙOacuteĴecirc3 LCOE B FG 3ʫȁ1ƐG40

ECN m-4otildeƊɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞKɥGǷdivideſĹ]bn (WACC) A3˘1ʆGWACC 4˜ǘ3yacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞĴ3ʌɞͿKyacute]bnszligiquestK˷ǥGćɂŚļɆ1ĠG Ugrave 1-41ĴecircD7đɔb3 LCOE FG3ʫȁKʆ3ʫȁ142008ƀ3 LCOEyacuteYj

3˩ʙʫȁKĠG3ʫȁ4Ĵecirc3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnszligiquestK˘ampʆampA3-G3Ͷ

oumlɯaRZn-Aś3 LCOE4ľƯaRZn1D)ɮ0)G

ĎȲ4 Ugrave 1-33mĀ3sup3Ś3amp3THORNoumlmg43gt-ʆG1ɫƧraquo LCOE FG3ʫȁ4

ʟo3Ǟ-ʆG

7

Ugrave 1-2 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divideOslashfrac12JFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h b

P bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b Ͷ^Pc(MW) ĎȲ5 23 20 30 20 24 20 17 21

Ͷļǘ 7 5 5 15 41 6 50 34 szligːǨ 2695 2260 2200 2150 2600 1750 3066 2628 ƷĎȲ6(eurokW) 1250 1373 1325 1250 1591 1790 1377 1449 ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 00 15 00 00 16 00 00 06 reg3]bn

euroMWhͿ 3 0 10 3 0 0 0 1

ʰƾijŚͿ(euroMWh) 000 4633 3139 000 001 000 860 629

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 12 0 13 20 11 31 5 11

njʰƾʱͳ

(euroMWh) 12 21 28 20 11 31 7 13

đɔb divide 61 38 57 114 366 46 318 NA

Ugrave 1-3 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14dividearingmJFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h bP

bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 55 50 70 50 50 60 50 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 110 95 150 100 120 70 75 100 Oumlyacute3otildeĜͿ 80 70 80 80 87 70 0 80 Ƿ3otildeĜͿ 20 30 20 20 13 30 100 20 ǴƀͿ 13 13 15 15 20 20 15 15 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 250 298 255 300 280 210 389 280

WACCͿ 52 56 60 59 47 49 75 49

Ugrave 1-4 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divide LCOE FGyuml2008Ā

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

bPb 120 (167) oPk 5 (7) Uh 94 (131) ʟĴ ndash1 (ndash1) oPk 85 (118) bPb ndash1 (ndash1) bP 83 (115) Uh ndash3 (ndash4)

bQRm 67 (93) bP ndash3 (ndash4) ʟĴ 65 (91) mZ ndash6 (ndash8)

mZ 61 (85) bQRm ndash8 (ndash11) đɔb 68 (95) đɔb NA

Ugrave 1-41ʆampD1Ĵecirc3 LCOE4bPb3 120MWh167oMWhͿĎȲ7EmZ3 61MWh85oMWhͿ=-Gđɔb3 LCOE4 68MWh95oMWhͿLJŚGěĴ3 LCOE ɮ0)G34Ĵecirc3ɯoumlʰƾǓaeligƷ]bn˺ǞȰ31DGA3-Gș1ěĴ3 LCOE1HE3vgĒltƐKDŽG

ĎȲ5 DF˳Ͷoumlɯ]bnccedilǿ14gɷƑtzſĹͶ)amp˞0vgKĠSrYAElig

ʬ1Gǥʄ0sup3ŚKĠG10G1ʆampLJŚOacute4ǷǮ1ʆampsup2ń3ƴ˗BĴşǦ1ȣ-GD

1ș3ćʣ0shyȓ3gtKʆA3G ĎȲ6 Yacute1ampD1Ʒ]bnD7aRZnƈˬ4 2008ƀ3A3sup3ŚGś14Ʒ]bnͶ3

ɯȲʗͿ14 2008ƀsup2ntilde3ǘŒĠ=HGė˃ƟG ĎȲ7 ɐǯn 1o139-njʙ

8

17 LCOEzoacuteplusmnecirc

ŅĴccedilǿ-4ěĴ1G 43˞0]bnvg3 LCOE93ƐKDŽ)ampĴecirc1 LCOEKLJŚ63]bnvgKĴecirc3Oacute$3reg3vgKđɔb3Oacuteamp3ccedilǿ14

|bPɂŚļɆđɔb3vgOacuteͿȣampĴecirc3THORNoumlvg3ƐKegraveFamp

3ŅĴccedilǿ-ȏ˯amp˞0vg14ɯoumlƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnKĠ

ampș13ʫȁKszlig3Ĵ3-ȣamp AringěĴ3szligːǨ3 LCOE 93ƐKx 1-3 1ʆ3IJ4 3 3ǥʄ0˱bKȣ

ampA3-G=Ɍˎ3Ȍ[y4Yacute1Ugrave 1-4 -ʆampěĴ3 LCOE K˘A3-szligTHORNoumlvgKĴecirc1ʆGș1ʳ4đɔbKʆA3-|bP3 LCOEK 68MWhszligvgKđɔb3OacuteG=ampʲˎ3jn4ȼĜbKʆA3-szligːǨKĴecirc3Oacute

$3reg3vgKđɔb3OacuteG x 1-31-6 4$HHɯouml˫đɔͿƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnK˘G

Ĵecirc3 LCOEɌˎ3Ȍ[yͿđɔb3 LCOEʳͿ43IJ-AŚ˞0]bnvg4ěIJ-ɮ0)FHKV-ccedilFǦʆG

x 1-3 rmicroQ1tzfrac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀkwIumlsect

x 1-4 rmicroQ1tzccedil-1kwIumlsect

9

x 1-5 rmicroQ1tzigraveeacuteETHaeligkwIumlsect

x 1-6 rmicroQ1tzccedilntildeacirciacute-1kwIumlsect

ěĴ3˞0Ͷoumlɯ]bn3vg34sup23D1˷ǥ-GampH1E0Ϳ frac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀăszligːǨ3Ĵ1DG14==0aacuteD7Iumlecirc3˞įƐ

GAring5oPk-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ1D)aRZnɯ4ͶɅ3 Ć1ƹB

EHGmZ-4Ĵatilde3ǵɯ3^PnKɯGntilde1Ͷ3ʹˬ˩1D)Ǡœ3Ͷ

oumlɯ^Pn3ˬOtildeǭǝEumlHGľĜAF$3ʫȁĴatilde3eacuteǴ3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn3

2008ƀ1ˬOtildeǭǝ3ť0)GbPb-4ű3NZdbEHGamp2008ƀ1śǟHampɯaRZn3ǘ4ŚHampA310)GʟĴ14Uumlccedil1ˍō0ͶɅ

KDzGaRZn^PnǘŅGʳ93NZdbeumlɥė˃ɞEHGamp

aRZnɥ^PnȪŚ14FFľĜ1D)4ɯ3aeligoumlƶiacuteKGKƖ00)

GǞbQRm-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ4Ƿʃʐ3reg3Ĵ4ĪͲ10)0Uh-4

FIT3ĽŌ3szligːǨ3ǰņOacute-ȪEHGampǰ0^PnKɯampFǰǝ3ƴ˗KɥampFGyacutePdlOzŪ00)Gė˃ƟG

ccedil-1ăƷ]bn4Ĵ1D)˒ɮ0GmZ-AUh-AszligːǨ1ļ+

ugraveƭ3 FITĽŌͶ3Ƹ1Ɛƕ)aRZn3Ʒ]bn1ƐGmZ-4szligːǨampF3˚ugrave3ͳKǰņ1Gampņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶUacuteYacute

HGǞUh-4˚ugraveKszligːǨ3ʜıatildeGampDF]bn3ŘͶ

10

ƴ˗ˡˡHGmZ-4oumlʡʭ93ʡ]bn)ampͶoumlɯaRZn3

ŨTHORN]bn34aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZn3So_oumlȸʿͿ

ǓƱ)G$3ampmZ3ʡ]bn4Ʒ]bn1Ġ=H0bPo

Pk$3reg33Ĵ-4ʡ]bn$3reg3ʡʭŀƍ]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿǓ

Ʊ)Famp)H4Ʒ]bn1ĠEHGbQRm14Ʒ]bn3ethȿ

ė˃10GD0ćʣĀHampʡʭʡưGoPk-4ͶoumlɯͶɅ3 Ć

1ƼņampʫȁɯbrvbarȐʿ4$3˚UgraveưȠŅ3aRZn-gɷƑ3ņ0ͶK

DFľƯ1ˬʹGKƖ00)GƷ]bn4gɷƑD7tz3ǘOacuteņ

0GͿbPb-4ű3ͶoumlɯaRZnɥ^Pn93NZdb=ampˠ

ȕ3ʪȽKȘGampƷ]bn0)G ʟĴ-4ņˠȕ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥEacuteɲ4ɚ1Ͷ3THORN1EcircFɯȲˠȕ

ņ0G1HEgraveȉotildeƊHG˯ǥHGʟĴ3QOoyM4đɔbD

FAaRZnˠȕņƷ]bnfrac12ampʟĴ3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4ǘotildeƊĖEHG

ơƣGˉģȻ1bQRm-4aRZn3ˠȕņ0)AEgraveȉ3otildeƊ

3ơƣ40H4 2008ƀ3bQRm3ˬʹ]bnmampaRZnşȣŪ0)ampamp-ė˃ƟG

igraveeacuteETHaeligăěĴʆampʰƾ3mg4ʄśƟşǦ1Iacuteͱ-0ǘOacute-G

mZ-4żͶoumlɯaRZn3OumlȖʿ4 5Έ10 ƀ3Ǵɱʰƾ^wbŋʢKƛ˞FH4ƀʢ 25kWĽġHGUh-4ʰƾ14żaRZnszligiquest-Ś3EgraveȉHG^wbŋʢ]bnD7ĸdegĠ=HFĽġH

G]bn45Έ23kWņoPk-Aǰfrac12 5ƀ3řszlig0^wbŋʢƛ˞HGľĜGbPb-4ʰƾ3ʪEHGuacuteNZd`wlO

3ĪͲ0E71Ͷ3ɼȧBcentȵ1D)reg3ĴDFʰƾ0)GʟĴ3

ʰƾ4ƀŨTHORNHampņˠȕ0aRZn-4ſĹfrac120)GD-GʟĴ-4

YN~jZbzoG4ɯȗ3ĦKordfnjGǨǴǣG˯ƻAcedilEHF

ƕ)ĽġHGmg3ʰƾ4ũ˰EgraveHGė˃ƟGoPk-AOtildeĦ3ordfnj

ƛ˞HGampũˠȕaRZn-4ʰƾ0)G=ampoPk4szligiquest3

ʰƾ3˞0Ȓƭ˞ʥͳ0ŚǴɱɠĸˡŤ3]bnĽġHGbQRm

-4ʰƾaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒ɮ0)G ccedilntildeacirciacute-1ăͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bn4ʟĴsup2ń3Ĵ-4ĝʋƄ-Gm

ZoPkUh-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿub`n1ļ+Ͷouml

ɯaRZn3K˺Goumlmiddotʇ-GľĜKż4aRZn$3A31D

)K˺GmZbQRm-4ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˊɱ1frac12

bZ3Ʒȗ˟0H$HaRZn33ȪŚ1ēǧHGʟĴsup2ń33Ĵ-

AaRZn3˺3Oumlȣɞ40)Fż4 60Έ87-G ʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn˺ǞȰ4(E5Aringńɱ-G2008 ƀ14ʟĴ3Ņ3aRZnż1ˇŹǷȣɞ55 100Ϳ-˺HaRZn1ļ+Ouml4lte-)ampH4Ǖƃ3yacute3˚ugraveiacuteƄ3amp-F3iacuteƄ1DFgjZb

SZPlO13ʀEHGSZPlOyMPpbȇƉɯ˖1DGǷ˺Ϳ1ɚĀHampƏƩ

ƞŀampgjZbSZPlOyMPpbUacuteYacuteHampampʟĴ-4regĴDFAǷ]bn

0)G0J(gjZbSZPlO4żOumlDFAͿ=ampʟĴ-4Ouml1D

G˺1D)aRZn3ɅKʄIgraveampb-4aRZn-40Ȱlaquo|-

3OumlK)GľĜ)amp =-3=x 1-31-61ʆamp 43˞0]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥD7ěĴ3 LCOEđɔ

b3 LCOEKx 1-71ʆ

11

x 1-7 rmicroQ1tzordfUacuteIgravekwIumlsect

x 1-8 4˞0]bnŃǘ3 LCOE 93ƐKE1ȣȏ˪Gamp1˞0]bnvgKĴecirc-40[1G3IJ-4ěĴ3]bnŃǘ3ƐD7đɔbȣampěĴ3 LCOE3ņKʆGȌ[y4ěĴ3 LCOE KŀdivideGOacuteKʆʲ3Ȍ[y4đɔbDFAěĴ3 LCOE Kfrac12GOacuteKʆ˞0]bnvgKLCOE đɔbDFŀdivideampʋƄȌ[yͿ3ņ1E1ʆGAring5ɯouml3ǰũŃǘ4bPbĽġampǘOacute-G

3Ĵ3ʰƾƷ]bnDFA LCOE KŀdivideG3ǰfrac12OacuteEǰOacute=-3Ĵecirc3THORNoumlvg3ʜıEɯoumlD7Ʒ]bn LCOE 1ǰAƐampJGH4ˊ1Đ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOEƨƄccedilǿˈG (IEA 2010 Cory and Schwabe 2009)ˉģȻ1ĽġHampʰƾ3ʜı4đɔbȣƷ]bn˺]bnDFA LCOE ŀdivide1ƐG3E ʰƾmg3ʄśƟeumlɥė˃Ɵƕ)THORNoumlvg3Ĵ1DG3ņLCOELJŚOacute3ȜʄƟKEHampA31ampė˃ƟGʰƾ1įGŸɮKȿEampE0Gccedilǿ

ƛ˞-GʾEHG

x 1-8 tzSUacute-1JFQ5 LCOEoslash

12

18 rkzacuteRuumljfrac14divide-1

ECN3m1DF-0ȳ1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯƯ3 LCOEKLJŚG-GraquoɠǨɏ-eumlɥ-GȳaRZn3mg4EHFɚ1Ĵecirc3 LCOE KLJŚG31ƛ˞0THORNoumlŃǘ3řszlig0mgƉGƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ1GĴecirc3 LCOE ȣ4˖)E$3đɔbAˬ0sup23Ugrave 1-5 D7 1-6 1ĽġHG]bn˺3mg3KʆɫƧmZ-4ʡʭ93ʡD7ȷƂz3ƛ˞ƟKʇmiddotɱɥGamp

aRZn3ɯȐʿHKƺ0-G3ccedilǿ-ɥampm4aR

Zn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏ1ʑ)ampA3-GampmZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF1ēǧ0m

Āccedilǿ-4Aumlɥ0)ampHE3ʡʭʡ]bnKĠG-mZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF4

ʢ 3000kW10Gx 1-71HE3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1˟ʏA)amp LCOEyacuteYjKʆ

Ugrave 1-5 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+fOslashfrac12JFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn aRZn3ɛȯ 2007ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF

ʓŶƀ 2007ƀ 2010ƀƔĄ ɚŚH ɯƯ^Pc(MW) 20 23 50

Ͷļǘ 60 90 12 szligːǨ 3350 3800 3700 Ʒ(eurokW) 3315 1883 3230

ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 0 0 0 reg3]bn(euroMWh) 11 0 0 ʰƾijŚͿ

(euroMWh) 149 0 123

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 0 24 0

njʰƾʱͳ(euroMWh) 44 24 33

ˀɥƀǘ 15 25 20

x 1-6 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+faringmJFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 45 65 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 120 112 150 OumlotildeĜͿ 50 26 70 ǷotildeĜͿ 50 74 30 ǴƀͿ 15 13 12 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 255 250 298

WACCͿ 79 92 77

Ugrave 1-7 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+f LCOEthornFG

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

Prinses Amalia 166 (231) oPkˊcurrenɂ NA oPkˊcurrenɂ 156 (217) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 6 (8) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 88 (122) Prinses Amalia 5 (7)

13

19 T LCOEYacuteEgravesup2

LCOE4==0ɶɱuumlȗD7˸ʿ3amp1˩ʙHGˊźȤǕʘȪŚʿƷŞaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿʗě3ɚŚ3qcKɄamp LCOE KeumlɥGamp) LCOE 1AumlJHGưȰ4ȓ-40LCOEK3ʋƄ˳LJŚGG43ʋƄ3sup3Śƛ˞4AumlɥG˩ʙǞȰ1D)==-FH LCOE 3ʫȁ1˒ƐG3ampecirc3 LCOE ˩ʙǞȰK=-3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECNmD7ǞȰťȣsup21˷ǥG Aring5ș˩ɩ`pU-4Ʒ]bn3ɠķOacuteD7ʇmiddotɱotildeƊɞKɥotildeFƊampƀ]bn3ſ

Ĺ1ļ+ćʣĀampdeg˘OacuteKɥ LCOE K˟ʏAGľĜG3Ni-4OumlǷȣɞOumlǷ]bnǴȰlaquoʌ)ampǥʄ0ɅʄIgraveǼacute3sup3Ś0H0$3degJF3ćʣ

0ǞȰ-4otildeƊɞLOacute3gtKɥF$H1D)yacuteưȠ3ɚƙKszlig˘GIEA 3Projected Costs of Generation Electricityrdquo (IEA2010) D7IEA World Energy Outlook 2009rdquo (IEA 2009) 43NiKɥFsup23Ɖ1DF LCOEK˩ʙG

3Ni-4IEA 4otildeƊɞKʇmiddotɱɅ]bn13˘G3]bn4ʇmiddotszligiquestɚŚ

3ƴ˗1ƷG1ƺ]bnK˘ (IEA2010)3ʇmiddotɱ˟ĸEIEA4otildeƊɞ 5Έ10KɥF5KȣɱŘŚɱ0ɢĿ1GOumlyacuteŰ˖bZ3frac12ƷŞeumlɥ-Gɞ1310K˒ʪȽɱƴ˗ɱbZD7EgraveȉbZ1ɷGƷŞ3Ʒ]bn13G (IEA2010)DFćʣĀampș˩ɩ`pU1DFTHORNoumlvg3ǘKǰũ1˳ʧƄ1D)ěʍ3ɯĺ3 LCOE KşǦ1ȣG-G H41 ɯȐʿ4 ECNm3D0Ƅ0Xj`ymKAuml)ɚŚ3aRZn

ě3 LCOE0E71ȜģɠķEgraveOacuteatildeĔɲɞȽǴ)ampreg3yacuteƿȔK˰EgraveG3m1˜ǘ3ƯDzʿ3ǥʄ0˺3ntildeNjǼacuteʌ3Ɛ$3reg3ĔTHORNG4]bn3ƐKĠ

GľĜAGǨ143mKɥegrave3ɉķɱ0]bn3ȵHK˰EgraveampFparaȐ3ɚŚ3

aRZn93ƷKė˃1GeumlɲƖEHGD0SrYEgraveȉKȪŚampFG(Harper et al 2007)3˳ʧ0ǞȰKɥampľĜƷ]bnBƀʪ-0ǘŅ3˞į LCOE 1ƐG10GaRZnƈˬ3ǰʨɱ0ȪŚȖ4ƷŞ1GampͶoumlɯ3ʮʯɱ0ˬʹKė˃1G]bn3OacuteKɡ˥

G14ƷŞ3ˡɏKɡ˥G˞-G Aring3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECN m4ƾccedilƷŞ1ƯŚ3Ƿeumlɲɞ (ROE) KIgrave˯aR

ZnȢ1 LCOEK˰EgraveGamp3Ƅ0Xj`ym-GYacute1ampD1ECN3Xj`ymKE1˳ʧ0A31G-ǷD7OumleumlőKƾ˺ȒKǥʄ1˘-

G=ampͶoumlɯ3]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏE˘-aRZnKGamp

3ĔTHORN3ȵH-ɸȡ0H50E0Ͷoumlɯ]bnK˟ʏG-G

110 LCOEYacuteEgraveocircicedilplusmnecirc

Ugrave 1-8 4otildeƊɞ LCOE ǞȰKȣampA3-GXj`yccedilǿ3ćʣ0ǞȰƄ0ǞȰ3ǞKɥ3otildeƊɞ1 LCOE K˟ʏFreg3egrave3]bnvgKě3đɔb1ɔEŚampE1HEʿ3ǞȰ1D)đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿKɣ GotildeƊɞK˘G

t=1Tsum Ʒ t + ʰƾ t + ɗǛ t + Ɏʥ]bn t + ǑĐ t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

LCOE =

t=1Tsum ɯouml t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

Ϳ

14

ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3ˡɏELdeg˘ɱ0otildeƊɞ4Ȥ3aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿG4ƷŞ3ˡɏ1ʑ

)ampotildeƊɞ3OacuteDFfrac120GtimesğGIEA2010 1DH5ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3otildeƊɞfrac120)Gɡɦ4bZŪǘ3ȤƷŞ-40ǘŅ3IumllaquoƷŞ1ccedilǗHGampɷGbZ˺]bn

Ū00Gamp-G$H1sup1ʇmiddotɱˡɏE3 LCOE 3˟ʏFAȤƷŞ3˟ʏFDFAfrac120Gtimesğ1G

Ugrave 1-8 icedil LCOEsup2plusmnecirc

ǞȰͽˡɏ ˡɏ ˺]

bn3Ʋ ɥ m

otildeƊɞ3

ʜı

otildeƊɞ3ʜı

1G LCOE

đɔb3

LCOEKɣ GotildeƊɞ

ș`pU ˩ɩ3ćʣ˩ʙ

agraveɱʇmiddotɱ ƷŞ3ˡɏ

otildeƊɞ1 ĠG IEA2010 5Έ10

53Έ70MWh

IEA3ǞȰͿ

95 IEA3ǞȰͿ

ƄXj`

yccedilǿ

aRZn ɯbrvbarȐʿG

4ȤƷŞ ǥʄ1Śʻ ECN2008 75Έ15

(ROE) 64Έ76

MWh 10

ECN3ǞȰͿ

reg3szlig3Ńǘ1đɔb3ntildeNjǼacuteKɥ Ƿccedilǿ-ĽġHamp ROE3ʜı1ļ+

Ugrave 1-8 1ʆD1(E3Ni-ALotildeƊɞ3 LCOE Oacute1˒ƐG95otildeƊɞ4ʇmiddot3ˡɏK˘ʞɬ0˩ʙȰKɥđɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿK˩ʙG31ƛ˞0Oacute-Gƕ)Ƿʃʐ3đdivide˽ĴĽġampmg1ļ+0E3otildeƊɞ4ǰņOacute1+4-F

IEA-43ʜıK 5Έ10GH4ʞɬĀampʇmiddotɱ˩ɩǞȰKɥƄXj`yưȰ3ordmOacuteKǥE1ampA3-G 1frac12Ǟ3otildeƊɞNjȊHampŽ3ǰAfrac12OacuteͿˊƷŞ3bK˘amp1ɥEHGƕ)

LCOEK˩ʙG14=ampͶoumlɯ3 LCOEKreg3Ʌ3 LCOEȣG14aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏG4DFƁoumlʡʭ|3ˡɏ3(E1ʑ)GKǥʄ1GėȘ-G

otildeƊɞ3Ƹ4$3ˡɏ1ťƜGdz=LCOEK˘ěʍ3ƉKɥGľĜ4ʑˆGˡɏotildeƊɞ$3reg3vg3OacuteKǥʄ1˥Gƛ˞HG

111 Iumlatilde

IEAWind Task263ʫȁELCOEĴ1D)ņɮ0)GJG33ƄĜ4ɯoumlƷɥ˺)ampě]bn3Ɛ1DGA3HGcurrenƦFĴŞ3 LCOE3Ÿɮ1ǰAƐamp34Ƿɱ0ͶȯG4Ͷ3ƴ˗shyȓ1ļ+currenɂHGɯouml-G=amp

ǷɱǓaeligD7ͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ǽacuteņɮ0GEźľoumlAͶoumlɯ3]bnszligiquest

1˒ƐGE1ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾAěĴ-˒ɮ0FH LCOE 1ņ1Ɛamp 63ɂŚļɆ-SrY3]bnszligˊK˘ LCOE 3Ɵ4ĴBɶɱ˸ʿ$3reg3eumlɥʿ3

-ćʣ0ȣ-GD1ƝJHGLCOE3ěʍ3˩ʙ3ˡɏE3D10HampKȜʄ1ɡ˥Gƛ˞GLCOE4ɪaacute-Aordfnjė˃0˩ʙ-A0IɚŚ3qc1ɥHGDzɲ-Eacuteeuml0k-Gƕ)ȣD7$3ʫȁ3˥14ɫƧGdz=

rOtildemiddot

Cory and Schwabe 2010 ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financial Variablesrdquo httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2009) ldquoThe Economics of Wind Energy A Report by the European Wind

15

Energy Associationrdquo March 2009 Available at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentspublicationsreportsEconomics_of _Wind_Main_Report_FINAL-lrpdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2010) ldquoWind in Power 2009 European Statisticsrdquo The European Wind Energy Association February 2010 Accessed at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentsstatistics100401_General_Stats_20 09pdf

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review and Comparative Analysisrdquo Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 Accessed at httpeetdlblgoveaempreports63434pdf

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2006) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2006rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2006weo2006pdf

IEA (2008) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2008rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2008weo2008pdf

IEA (2009) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2009rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgWbookshopaddaspxid=388

IEA (2010) ldquoProjected Costs of Generating Electricityrdquo 2010 Edition Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgpublicationsfree_new_DescaspPUBS_ID=2207

RECaBs (2007) ldquoRECaBs Interactive Renewable Energy Calculatorrdquo Renewable Energy Calculator Accessed August 2010 at httpwwwrecabsorg

Wiser R Bolinger M (2010) ldquo2009 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy August 2010 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs2009_wind_technologies_market_reportpdf

16

Aring 2Auml NDQ+

21 NDQ+uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ȑ˞0E71]bn3ɚƙKG-

4 2008 ƀ3D7ȳͶoumlɯƴ˗1GĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1ɒɏKƎG

211 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

2008ƀǶ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ĝ˩ 3179MW 2756MWȳ 423MWͿ-H4 2007ƀǶ3ˬOtildeş1ťʢ 1252000ƀ3ˬOtildeşDFA 32ŀdivideG2001ƀE 2008ƀ=-1ŀdivideampˬOtildeş3ʢĄǘ4ȳͶoumlɯ1DGA3-G2008 ƀ1ȳ-ƈˬ3ȳQOoyM4 3F(64 2009ƀ1řƭA64 2010ƀʈ1ŐGcurrenŚ-GˮȲ 5 x 2-1 1ʆD1ŨTHORN3Ƅ4Ǵ15EņJG2001ƀE 2003ƀ1

ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 725MW ŀdivideamp2004 ƀE 2007 ƀ=-4 8MW ŀdivideamp10H4 2003 ƀ1śǟHampaRZn3ǕɱǓǎ˩ɩņŽ1ȿͳHampʫȁ-GHK˚amp1 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampǝamp0ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFͶ3ƈˬǝamp1ȲɶHG10)amp2008ƀ3 FITŨTHORNƔ2010ƀ 7DZǶ=-1Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 280MWŀdivideG (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ1D)mZ3ʱoumlȸ3ʢ 20AEligʬHG

x 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

ˮȲ 5 Roslashdsand IIȳͶoumlɯƯ4 2010ƀ 8DZ1ŐG

17

mZ4ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ƀșɶȔKŚ0EU 3˞Ȩ1DH5mZ4 2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯ-ʱSrYȸ3 30Kamp3˩ɩKʘŚ0H50E0EU-4szlig3divideɳĴ13aumlɣė˃SrY3ɶȔOacuteKƭGamp3˖uuml˩ɩ3AcircƭKʻyacutemacrFm

Z4 2010ƀ 6DZ1Ĵ3˖uuml˩ɩKɯ˘G3˩ɩ-42020ƀ=-1ˬOtildeşKʢ 4 GW$H1D)Ͷoumlɯ4 11000 GWh10GcurrenƦHG=ampʱş3 3ccedil3 1D7ouml3ʢ 50Kȳ1ˬʹGͶEƖGcurrenƦHG (Kemin 2010)(0gt12009ƀ3ɯouml4ʢ 6700 MWh-G2010 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3currenɂ4ěȚŵdivideɳĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010) ʁǴɶȔ2008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MW3divide0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ˬ

Otildeş 350 MW3ǝˬŚEHG3ɶȔOacute3Ąccedil4Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ1D)ƭA3-$H1D)ʦʏş4 175 MWŀdivideG10GĸǞ3˩ɩƎŬ42012ƀ=-1 350MW1divideş 150 MWKdivideGamp3˩ɩKˠŚ0H50E0 ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MWKdivideGʁǴɶȔ433ņˠȕ0ȳͶoumlɯƯ0J( Horns

Rev II209 MW2009ƀ 9DZŐͿRoslashdsand II207 MW2010ƀʈʓŶcurrenŚͿAnholt400 MW2012ƀ12DZʓŶcurrenŚͿ1DFƭHG˟gt-G

Ugrave 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

1761 2358 2464 2697 2708 2716 2720 2728 2717 2756 2985 2621

ȳ 11 50 50 210 423 423 423 423 423 423 856 1339

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 2-2 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

176 1 597 106 183 12 8 4 8 ndash11 39 ndash38 ndash135

ȳ 11 39 0 210 223 0 0 0 0 0 100 ndash14

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

212 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1iacuteŚHampaumlɣė˃SrYȰ1DFͶoumlɯaRZn3ǝamp0ĽiacuteƄŨTHORNHampǝamp03ͶoumlɯaRZnD7UoN13ȳaRZnĎȲ8-4HAszligːǨ

22000Ǩ1igraveG=-bjnźľEgraveȉ1divide 025mZZrkW0034kW ĎȲ9 0047okWͿ3ugraveƭNjAEligHGĎȲ10szligːǨ˫3Ǩ1igraveampƔ4źľEgraveȉKĖĕG10

G Ͷ1ť4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥƀǘ3Ǵ ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3˚ugraveƀ 0023mZ

ZrkW00037kW 0005okWͿ˚ugraveHG

ĎȲ8 UoNaRZn134ȳͶoumlɯƯ3THORNǸư4ecirc1ƈˬHGȳͶoumlɯƯ3aRZn

ŚʻHG13ȳͶoumlɯƯUoNɧ˻db1DFƈˬHG ĎȲ9 17353mZZr ĎȲ10 ɠ˖3Egraveȉ˚ugraveiacuteƄ4ͶoumlɯaRZn93ugraveƭK 1 kWampF 010mZZr0013Ϳamp

[1degJ)ŨTHORNHampA3-G

18

ˊɱ1mZ-4ͶszligːǨ- 22000Ǩ3ɯK˖147ƀE 10ƀGAring5 3 MWͶKˬʹGH5FIT4ș3D1ȪŚHGĎȲ11

3 MWͶszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 3000 kWh

3000 kWh times 22000 = 66 GWh FITʬ˺Ǚ˚ugrave43 MWͶ 66 GWhɯG=-3ǴǓƱJHG3Oacute4ș3D10G

(66 GWh times 025Zr) + (66 GWh times 0023Zr) = 18064200Zr

Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4ʽǹĀampͶKǑĐGǝˠ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1A

ɥHG3ͳ4ǑĐHampˬOtildeş3 2ETHKɣɤGamp3szligːǨ 12000Ǩ1ť 008mZZrkW001kW 00139okWͿ-GAring5 225 kW3ͶKTHORNǝˠ3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn1D)ǑĐGľĜˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugraveK˩ʙGsup23D10G

225 kW times 2ļszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 450 kWh

450 kWh times 12000 = 54 GW

ǑĐamp 225 kWͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4

54 GWh times 008Zr = 432000Zr 3˚ugraveɥHG34450 kWǵɄ3ͶKǑĐGľĜ1EHG3˚ugrave3ơƣKĖGamp

3ǝˠaRZn-ǑĐGͶ3ǘ1iacuteˬEHGJ-403˚ugraveɥHG34

450 kWǵɄ3ͶK˩ 175 MWKǑĐGľĜ1EHG szligːǨ1ļ+ FIT-4Ś3 kWh3ɯǨ-40ˊ1tzgɷƑņͶD

FAņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶ93ƷUacuteHGAring5 3 MW 3ɯȗ3szligːǨampFɯouml (kWh) 415 MWͶ3 2ETH-ƕ)ĖĕG˚ugrave3ͳAETH10G ș1ʆUgrave 2-3D7 2-44FITͶoumlaRZn1GͶ3Ƹ1ĒltƐKʆampA3-3

Aring4ś3aRZn1ļ+G

Ugrave 2-3 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITuh AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave[]psup312

ɯȗ3

ˠȕ

MWͿ

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ ouml

MWhͿ

Ͷ 1ļampF3aRZn]bn

(DKK)

oumlłͳ (DKK)

ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 223 098 30 90 90 7497 23430 5250 224 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 223 098 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 227 100

(Nielsen et al 2010)

ĎȲ11 3Aring4reg3Ĵ3ʒ14Ġ=H0ampmZZr-ĽġG ĎȲ12 ĝ

19

Ugrave 2-4 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITu AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave]

ɯȗ

^Pc(MW)

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ

ouml (MWh)

Ͷ 1ļampF3aR

Zn]bn

(DKK)

ouml łͳ(DKK)

˚ugrave

(DKK) ʱĔTHORN

(DKK) ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 1650 6610 298 100 30 90 90 7497 2343 5250 1650 6900 295 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 1650 8920 273 092 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 990 5220 281 094

(Nielsen et al 2010)

˫3AringEņĺ3gg1ƷGDFAņĺ3ɯȗ1ƷGǞszligːǨ1ļ+

FIT 3ơƣKĖBJGUgrave 2-3 1ʆHGD1ǰAʪȽucircɞ3ˍͶ4ņĺgKOtildeamp 18 MW3ȣɱũĺ3Ͷ-GH4szlig3Ͷ-Ś3ɯouml kWhKļ1ampľĜ3 FIT1AƎ4=GUgrave 2-4 EszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT E3divideɱĔTHORNƖEHB34gɷƑũtzfrac12 3 MW3ɯȗ-Fȣɱũĺ3ɯȗ4 3frac141ˑ(GJG

FIT3ļɆszligːǨKɥGjn4currenˠŚHampˬOtildeşKƭGamp1ˬʹHGͶ3ǘŪ00G-G=ampH1DFgɷƑtz3OacuteKGjnAŪ00G

HE 2 3ʹ˩ɩKʘŚaRZnKĸUcirc-ĖTHORNHAE1ĪͲ0GľĜGszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT 4mZ3ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ʁǴɱɶȔOacute)ampˬOtildeş1ļ+ǕʘɱɶȔOacuteƭHGD1Gamp3A3-G szligːǨK FIT 3ļɆG3mjn4˚ugrave1DFźľ3ȝgtɣ GampǰAʪȽɱucircɞ

3ˍͶƛAaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ1)ǰAͺoumlɱ0gw-400G-G

$3ampǰʨɱ14Ͷoumlɯreg3ɅDFA10F20mZ-43ƏƉ3 FIT AumlJHGampɯoumlKļɆampɶȔOacuteƭ1G]bn0Gʫȁ0G

22 NDQ+ 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-4mZ1G 2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKG-ɥampmg42008 ƀ1˩ɩG4śǟHampaRZn3ſĹOacute1ļ+A3-GͶ93Ʒ]bn4^Pn3Ǽacute1DFŚ-40mZ-4ɯ]bnȣɱŚGD-GˬOtildeş MWampF3Ʒ]bn14ǰņ- 503GeacuteƀƄ3ɯouml MWh ampFƷ]bn3Ńuumlɞ4 15ǵɄ-G

221 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para mZ3ͶoumlɯaRZ-n4ˊ1Ū0Ͷǘ3Έ12ļͿ3ͶʺKɥG˩ɩW

PoP-4Ū0A 3ļ3ͶKɷʳɛG4ʵB0ŔKNJD1=ʹGGH4ͶK 1 ļccedilǗɱ1ʹGˡˢɱĉƋ0GE-GmZ14ņˠȕQOoyM3AringGbPBʟĴņ0A3-40ǰņˠȕ3b4Ͷ 20ļKˬʹGʱş 63 MWͿ

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹŚȉş4 19 MW-F$3gɷƑ4 80 mtz4 72 m-G2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ-ǰAˊɱ034 23 MW3Ͷ-F$3tz4 80 mgɷƑ4 93 m-G

(b) BL0+Ouml mZ3Ͷğ4ˊ1˝ğ-GampͶ3^PnɡƦɱ034āȷȮų10G

20

ˊɱ1ͶɅ4ǾŪ00)GȮųĸŻ$3Ģ-4ƀſĹͶ 7 msKGH4 2 MWͶtz 80 mͿ1ļ1ťszligːǨʢ 2500Ǩ1ɸƎG(Danish Energy Agency 2010)2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3 2009ƀƄ3szligːǨ4ſĹ 2639Ǩ-)amp2009ƀ3mZ3ͶɅ4żƀ3 88-2008 ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3szligːǨ4szligˀɥƀǘſĹ-ʢ 3000 Ǩ10GcurrenƦHGɫƧszligːǨ3LJŚOacute4mZszligiquest3ͶɅl`1GA3-402008ƀ1ˬʹH2009ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+˩ʙampA3-G

(c) ccedil-1 2008ƀƄ3deg˘ɱ0aRZnƷ]bn141100kW1529okWͿE 1300kW1807

okWͿ=-F$3ſĹ4 1250 kW1738 okWͿ-GEgraveȉ4 2008 ƀ1xZ1ampƔ2009ƀ 2010ƀ1ņŽ1frac12GɚƙG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ1GͶ3ʰƾ4IgraveIcircɡ^wbŋʢĸdegĵĸʚɡ3 4 ɶ-ȒƭH

GHE3ɶ$HHͶoumlɯƯ3ɣȹʰƾ3ʢ 25KĈG2008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlɯaRZn1currenƦHGɣȹʰƾ412MWh17oMWhͿ-G (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m4ƀ|b3Ouml 80-K˺GaRZnKɥGmZ1GȤ

ƯDz3Ͷ4ˊ1ƎƅOgraveŋʢ1DFK˺Gegrave3ĔTHORNKƎƅOgraveŋʢ1Ʒ FͶ

3ƯDzʿ43ļKɷDžeumlɥG-0Ʒ1ťGeumlɊ93ǓaeligǓƱ4szligOumlȖʿ3Ƴ˴

ʻyacutemacrEHG mZ3ɡƦɱ0aRZn4100Ouml-K˺GaRZn-Gż3aRZ

n-4Ouml1DG˺3otildeĜʢ 800)GͶoumlɯaRZn1ťGOgraveTHORNĮĔǴĖTHORNHė˃034 15ƀsup2atilde-G

2008 ƀƄ3ƎƅOgraveŋʢ3eumlő4ʢ 5ͼ-H4 5 ƀijŚHGͶoumlɯaRZn4reg3ƷȗɱbrvbarȐȣȵuumlƟ˟0HGampˊ1eumlőfrac120)GͶoumlɯaRZ

n3bZ˞įKʚɡ-Gegrave0ưȠGEͶ93Ʒ4bZfrac12˟0HG mZ1GǝˠaRZn3ľĜʣɤɞ4ż 9Έ11-G3amp 5~73bZ

Nė˃10G3EA1983ƀE 2002ƀ=-3mZ˯icircȇƉĕƊƯ3 OMX203bZNſĹ 72)amp3ȣͶoumlɯaRZn3bZȣɱfrac12JGĎȲ13 (Saabye 2003)

(f) s_N3N9A Ͷ30ĔTHORNɅ4NordPool źľK 3oumlłFIT Ə-3Egraveȉ˚ugrave-Gʬ˺

ǙbrvbarȐʿ3Ͷ3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢK 5ƀ=-ƇG-GĎȲ14HE3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢ4 Nord Pool3Yacuteəźľ1Ɇ ʴʫHG

(g) Q54Q1 mg4 Economy of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ1

ļ+A3-G

222 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para 2008 ƀ1mZ-ŐampȳaRZn40HA˩ɩG4ƈˬȠ1GȳQ

OoyMɯ4ˊ1Ǖƃ3˴ėKƖEHG10G3˴ė4THORNǸʋKEHG

A3-szligːǨ 50000Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml kWhampF3THORNǸ1ťǰfrac12Egraveȉ3A31˴ė

ĎȲ13 Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark ĎȲ14 10ƀijŚEgraveȉKNjAEligGǝˠ3ɯAɰľG

21

aeligHG10GHornz Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand I amp II4THORNǸʋKʪśɠampaRZn-GAnholt3ǝȳQOoyM3THORNǸǴ4 2010ƀ 6DZ1ʨpoundG$3ˬOtildeş4 400 MW-2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-1KŐG10G UoN13ǞƉĎȲ15QOoyMA˴ėHGUoNǞƉQOoyM3ˬʹlaquo

ƖEHH5Ͷ1Aĝ PdlOz[ɥHG10Gɠķ=-1 2 3UoNǞƉ3QOoyMƈˬHG

(b) ccedil-1 mZ1GȳQOoyMɯbrvbarȐʿ3Ʒ]bn4˴ėiacute3THORNǸʋKʪampʢ 200 MW3

ņˠȕQOoyM1ťʢ 2700Έ3000kW3753Έ4170okWͿ-G ȳQOoyMKĴatilde3oumlʡʭȳŃĶˬOtilde1ʡGamp3]bn4mZ-4Ĵƺ

GampaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷʱͳŪ00)GɢĿƐ˰Egravebrvbarntilde3ȷƂĸ˰Egrave3]

bnAĴƺG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳQOoyM3ʰƾ4ʭ˩mgEHF=ampȳQOoyMɥʪǬʳ

ƞthornKƭGamp1ʄśƟmZ3ņˠȕȳQOoyM3ɣȹʰƾ4ĸ

Ļ3ɛȯ1DF 18MWh25oMWhͿE 20MWh28oMWhͿ=-G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mZ3ņˠȕQOoyM3˺4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ȪʙǴszligiquest1ɀ)˖JH

GsmOjZƷ˖E3OgraveTHORN˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM1eumlɥHGraquoH4

aRZn93˺Ə-˖JHGJ-40Ϳ˴ ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4ż 50ƍ3Ƿȣɞ-˺HG mZ3oumlmiddotʇ3Ƿ]bn4ʢ 112ͼ Ouml]bn4 4555˩ʙHG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) s_N3N9A ˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml3ijŚEgraveȉKĖĕ)

GijŚEgraveȉ4THORNǸdb-ȪŚHGTHORNǸEgraveȉ4˺ǙHampƿȔ-40szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ĔTHORN Nord PooloumlĕƊ-3ł-ƖEHampƔ1ȪŚHGHorns Rev II3ˑǸEgraveȉ4 0069kWh0096okWhͿRoslashdsand II4 0085kWh0118o kWhͿ-GźľEgraveȉ1ťGEgraveȉ˚ugrave4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿTHORNǸEgraveȉ1Ɯ NjAEligGźľEgraveȉTHORNǸEgraveȉDFľĜQOoyM

Eʡʭɥʿ1ŸͳKǓƱJ250E0 ˴ėiacute-0G4UoN13ǞƉ3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 22000 Ǩ1G

=- 0034kWh0047okWhͿD7Ͷeumlɥ-Greg3˚ugraveKĖĕG

(f) Q54Q1 Horns Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand II3ƈˬ]bnʱͳ1Gmg4eumlɥė˃0agraveɱƥĽmZ3ȳ

QOoyMɯ3ŦŞD7ȳQOoyMƯDzʿ0E71ȳQOoyM3˺

ʿ93ˁĕF˺ȆE1THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙEƖampA3-G

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacute3ȑ˞-G

ĎȲ15 UoN13aRZn4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3THORNǸʋKʪ1˖JHGȳƈˬaRZnŚ

ʻHG3 23QOoyM1divide13ȳɯƯUoNɧ˻db1D)ƈˬHG

22

Ugrave 2-5 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ16

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ17 ȳ

2008ƀĎȲ18 ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 23 23 23 Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 3 91 90 ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2700 4300 3865

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 25 25 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1250 2844 3000

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash (1738) (3953) (4170) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 12 (17) 20 (28) 18 (25) $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 3 (4) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆ Economics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010

Ugrave 2-6 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 50 55 45 Ƿeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 110 112 112 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 80 45 26 Ƿ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 20 66 74

WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 52 88 95 Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 13 10 13 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 25 25 25

FXn $US 139 139 139 FXn DKK ndashndashndash 7353 ndashndashndash 7353

ǛΆEconomics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aeligIacuteɥļ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ

Ugrave 2-7 NDQ+uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 447 (621) 28 (39) 447 (621) źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 37 (51) 70 (97) 85 (118) FITǕʘǴ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 22000 50000 50000 ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

LVRT ˮȲ 6ĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ǛΆNielsen et al 2010 Danish Energy Agency 2008 Danish Energy Agency 2009 ĎȲ16 2007ƀ14mZ-ǝamp1ƈˬHampͶ40)amp ĎȲ17 2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ȳ1Ͷ4ƈˬH0)ampȳQOoyM 3ƈˬG4˩ɩȠ1)amp

$3( 24Ǖƃ3˴ė˩ɩ1ļ+A3-ȟF64UoN13aRZn-)ampHorns Rev II3ǰʨɱ0Ʒ3ȪŚ4 2007ƀ10Hampamp3ǘŒ4 Horns Rev II3LJŚ]bn1ļ+GRoslashdsand II3ƷȪŚ4 2008ƀ10H$Hĝƀ3]bn3Ȉƻ0)G

ĎȲ18 -ɥampAring42008ƀ1ƈˬŋʢʴʫHamp Roslashdsand II3THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙG ˮȲ 6 LVRT (Low Voltage Ride Through) Ķɾfrac12Ǩ1AͶ0ͶoumlɯƯ3KʮʯʡʭŘŚƄKʰƾGȗ˃

23

223 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc 2008ƀ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ93ƷmgKɥ LCOEK˩ʙAring 1Auml1ʆampđɔb3

LCOEȣampđɔb4Wind Task263szligđdivideĴ3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn-G đɔb3 6 Ńǘ3ƐKmZ3brvbarAringȣěŃǘmZ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOE 1Ɛ

GKǥE1ampđɔbmZ3brvbarAringKȣampʫȁKx 2-2 1ʆmZ3ſĹɱaRZn3 LCOE42008ƀ14 61MWh85oMWhͿ-H4đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿDFA 7MWh10oMWhͿfrac12)amp

x 2-2 NDQ+rmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup319

(b) BL0+dj đɔb3aRZn3aeligouml4szligːǨ 2600ǨKBBĮ)ampǞ 2008ƀ1Őamp

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24

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25

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26

Ugrave 2-8 2007 2008NDQ+uumljfrac14divide LCOEpsup321

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

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(LCOE) euroMWh

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70 (97)

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(110)

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rOtildemiddot

Danish Wind Industry Association httpwindpowerorgenknowledgestatisticsthe_danish_markethtml September 2010 (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)

Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2007 2008 (Danish Energy Agency 2008) Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2008 2009 (Danish Energy Agency 2009)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Ministry of Climate and Energy National handlingsplan for vedvarende energi i Danmark 2010 (In English National Action

ĎȲ21 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampĔɲʱͳͶoumlɯǕʘͽPdlO

zD7yacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜAG

27

Plan for RE in Denmark) (Kemin 2010)

Nielsen et al Economy of Wind Turbines 2010 EUDP (Nielsen et al 2010) (Original title Vindmoslashllers Oslashkonomi)

Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark (Saabye 2003)

28

Aring 3Auml lt8

31 lt8uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

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2009ƀȳQOoyM3ʖ 1Ě0)amp Alpha VentusʓŶampH1DFȳ3ɯŧǽŐ=GA3ǴƒHGoPkǕƃ4 2015ƀǶ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʢ 25 GW1GɶȔKɯ˘G

x 3Ă1 lt8uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

2000 ƀoPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4Ĵatildeʱɯouml3 16KĈsup2ǽ3otildeĜ4ņŽ1Ǥ8ƀƔ14 620)GcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3ŀdivideoPkǕƃ1DGɺSrY3ĕFʩgtKʾƬG3otildeĜ4notƔAǤKʯGcurrenƦHGUgrave 3-1 4oPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ĐD7ŧǽ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 3-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀşdivideKʆampA3-G

29

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ȳ 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 100

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312 s_CcedilN3N9A

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30

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31

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G3aRZn^Pn4 Borkum1G East FrisianŴ3ʢ 40 kmȫĜ3āȷ1frac14ʹȦȻʢ 30 m-G3ȷųE3ȦȻ3ʪȽɱEacuteɲKƖGamp14Śȉaeligoumlʢ 5 MW3ȳͶƛ˞10G3^Pn3szligːǨ4 3700Ǩ10GcurrenƦHG

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3ȳQOoyMKEHampľƯ1D7ȻȦĻ1ƈˬGamp3Ʒ]bn4ɪ

ſĹDFA3230kW 4490okWͿ3]bn3atildeˮ4ͶļʅŃƯzʗ-Gʡʭ93ʡ4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿ3micro-GampaRZn3Ʒ]bn14ʡʭ93

ʡ]bn4Ġ=H0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳͶoumlɯ3ʰƾ43ʰƾDFA˒0)GȷųEHG-

ǷĵEȳ3Ͷ=-3əlaquoħ3]bn0GE1ʰƾ14atildeD7ń3bgj

y3laquoacuteD7ƛ˞0ˡŤBIgraveʪȽʚɡBƴ˗ʚɡˌˋordf3ɴˡ)amp]bnĠ=HGoP

k3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ƀʰƾ4123kW171okWͿ10GcurrenƦHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȳ3aRZn3ƷŞ143ľĜDFAeumlɲɞƛ˞10Gȳ3Ƿeumlɲɞ12ͿA

Oumleumlɲɞ65ͿA3ľĜDFA0GOumlǷȣɞ7ť 3Ϳ4ƦŚHampaRZnȣŚ-Gś14aRZn3˺Ȓ1D)Ū)GAring5aRZnˇ

iquest-G4ub`n1DF˺G0Ϳė˃ƟAG

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ȳͶoumlɯ3ouml4EEG3 FIT1D)ƱƮHGƦŚampm1˧5EEG20041ļ+

otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 91 MWh127 oMWhļǷǛ4 619 MWh860 oMWhͿ-G3ampotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4ȷųE3aRZn^Pn30E71ȦȻ1ļ+ 145 ƀǓƱJHG10G

(f) Q54Q1 mg4 EEG(2004)D7 Deutsche WindGuard GmbH ZSW3amp1Acircƭamp EEG(2008) Ɔț1Gʉŕ

ɱĽġǮ1ļ+

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 3-354sup21G LCOEccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacuteK˘

32

Ugrave 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 2 2 NA 5 Ͷļǘ ļ 5 5 NA 12 ɯ szligːǨ 2260 2260 NA 3700

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA 20 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1259 (1750) 1373 (1908) NA 3230 (4490)

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 4571 (635) 4633 (644) NA 123 (171) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 149 (207) 152 (211) NA ndashndashndash $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

Ugrave 3-4 lt8uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 55 55 NA 65

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 95 95 NA 120 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 70 70 NA 70

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 30 30 NA 30 WACC ͼ 56 56 NA 68

Ǵ ƀ 13 13 NA 15 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 298 298 NA 298

FXn $US 139 139 NA 139

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard Destatis

Ugrave 3-5 lt8uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 79 (110) 78 (108) NA 84 (117) FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA 20

ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ

ƀ NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 16 16 NA 16 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

323 lt8oumlRBL0+yuml2008ĀrmicroQ1-1plusmnecirc

x 3-2EoPk3 LCOE85MWh 118oMWhͿǷĽġǮ-Yacute1ampđɔbDFA˒ccedilG$3ɡɦKsup21IJʆG

33

x 3-2 lt8uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup323

324 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) BL0+dj LCOE 3KAampEG34aRZn3śʷ-GʾEHGđɔb3ş

4ƀszligːǨ 2630ǨoPk3ļǷaRZn3szligːǨ4ƀ 2260Ǩ$HDFA4G1frac12

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4 1373 kW1908o kWͿ-đɔbDFA 76

kW106okWͿfrac12)ampLCOE1˧5H4ʢ 3MWh4oMWhͿȿ1ɸƎG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAʢ 7MWh10oMWhͿH

4ŚǴɏȏ3śǟQOoyMũˠȕ01DGcurrenOtildeĦ3Igraveʚ]bn3Ǥ)ampɡɦ1DG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 oPk3aRZnđɔb3Ÿɮ4ʢ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-H4˺Ȓ

31įG

(e) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4ƦŚ0

325 s_F(=2E

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯ14EEG1ļ+ FITɥHGoPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn EEG2004G4 EEG20093-ƲJHGF$Hsup2ń3ĔTHORN4˟=H0E1oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎGamp3reg3PdlOzKŨTHORNG4ƧIJHE$3currenƦA0

ĎȲ23 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4ĭǂcopyTHORN3ampđɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3

Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

34

x 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup324

326 aringmH7B

x 3-31ʆampD15MWh7oMWhͿ3yacuteYjɣ FH4szligːǨʰƾ3Ÿɮ1DGA3-G

33

-LoPk3QOoyM3Aring4Śȉaeligouml 2MW3Ͷ 5ļ-ȒƭHGaRZn3szligːǨ42260ǨƦŚG3m3ƦŚ1ļ+LCOE485MWh118oMWhͿLJŚHampNjAEligHamp FIT1DFaRZnɯǨȐʿ3yacuteYjampFʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ10GǛ3Oacute4 EEG-ˠŚHG

Ugrave 3-6 lt8Iumlsectpsup325

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

85 (118) NA 135

(188) ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

79 (110) NA 84

(117)

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

5 (7) NA 46

(64)

rOtildemiddot

BMU Leitszenarion 2009 ndash Bundesministerium fuumlr Umwelt Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit Langfristszenarien und Strategien fuumlr den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland ndash Leitszenario 2009 (2009)

Destatis Statistisches Bundesamt wwwdestatisde (last access December 2009) ĎȲ24 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAG ĎȲ25 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

35

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 32 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122007 (2008)

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 34 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122008 (2009)

Deutsche WindGuard Deutsche WindGuard GmbH on behalf o Zentrum fuumlr Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Wuumlrttemberg (ZSW) Vorbereitung und Begleitung bei der Erstellung eines Erfahrungsberichtes gemaumlszlig sect 20 EEG (2008)

EEG 2004 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich (2004)

EEG 2009 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich und zur Aumlnderung damit zusammenhaumlngender Vorschriften (2008)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

36

Aring 4Auml JN6

41 JN6uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

411 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬʹş42000ƀ3 447 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 2121 MW1ŀdivide3( 228 MWȳͶoumlɯ3ş0)GͶoumlɯ1DGƀ3ɯouml42000ƀ3 08 TWhE 2008ƀ3 43 TWh1ŀdivideGǞ2008ƀ3Uh3ʱȸouml4 119 TWh-)ampͶoumlɯ3ʁǴɶȔ42008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 2000 MWdivideG-G3ɶȔ3ƭ1DFˬʹȽgtG4ƈˬ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʱş4ʢ 4000 MW10G2009ƀ14950 MW3ȳͶoumlɯ3THORNǸŐHGȳͶoumlɯ3ɶȔOacute42020 ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 6000 MW 1G-Graquo EU 3aumlɣė˃SrYƿplusmn3ʻyacuteKɄGamp34 2020ƀ=-3ɶȔOacute45178 MW-G x 4-1 D7Ugrave 4-1 4-2 4D7ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71ěƀƄ3

ʁǴɱD7ǴɱɶȔOacute3currenɂ-Gszlig3şmg4ěƀǶ3mg-Gɏ1ɫƧ-GU

h4ǠœͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ14ɶȔOacuteKŚ0

x 4-1 JN6uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 and Rijksoverheid 2010

2000ƀ3ƀŨTHORNş4ĝƀǶ3ʦʏˬOtildeşĝ ş1ˬŚHampUgrave 4-21ʆȜģƀŨTHORNş4

ǑĐampͶoumlɯaRZn3ȜģˬOtildeşKĠL-GUgrave 4-2 1ʆamp2009 ƀE 2012 ƀ=- 2012ƀE 2020ƀ=-3ěǴ3ȜģƀŨTHORNş4ě3Ǵ3ſĹƀŨTHORNşKʆGsup23˘1ʆˬOtildeş4UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ1ļ+ˬOtildeş3currenɂ-GRijksoverheid 2010Ϳ

37

Ugrave 4-1 JN6IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0447 0485 0672 0905 1075 1224 1453 1641 1921 2727 6000

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0108 0228 0228 5178

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 andRijksoverheid 2010

Ugrave 4-2 JN6regwoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0038 0038 0187 0233 0170 0149 0229 0188 0280 0202 0409

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0 0 0 0619

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010Rijksoverheid 2010

412 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1ǝamp0 FIT ĽŌ˩ɩ-G SDE ˮȲ 7ŨTHORNHamp3 SDE bX3-Ͷoumlɯ3ś3ɯ]bn1˟ĜotildeŀĕEgraveȉoumlčEgraveȉ1divideǓƱJHGE1aumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗93Ʒ

1fynʌiacuteUacuteLjʹKɥGjnSDEotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3Ȃʩgtatilde-ȏ˪HG

42 JN6VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-Uh3deg˘ɱ0D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZnK˷ǥG

421 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh4 2003ƀ1szligːǨ|b-ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎG FITiacuteƄKŨTHORNamp2006ƀ=-4

szligːǨ 18000 Ǩ=-3aRZn1ťǰ- 10 ƀ FIT NjAEligHamp2008 ƀE3 FIT 1DGǓǎ4szligːǨ 2200 Ǩsup23aRZn1ť˖JHG10)ampſĹszligːǨ4ƀʢ2000Ǩ-$3ˊɱ0ʜı4ƀ 16002800Ǩ-G Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4FITǓǎ3˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZnKʆGĎȲ263

aRZn-4$3Pq`NlOz3ņĄǕɱ1ś˖ė˃0]bn3|KˬŚGdeg˘ɱ0

34 15 MW3ũˠȕQOoyM-ͶoumlɯaRZn3ņĄ 23 MW3ͶgɷƑ 90 mtz 60Έ80 mͿKAuml)G3ĸĻ-4iacuteˬEHFHE3ĸĻ-4tz 4060 m3 450800 kWͶˊɱ-G

(b) ccedil-1 aRZn3deg˘ɱ0Ʒ]bn4 1000kW1390okWͿE 1600kW2224okWͿ

=-Fˊ1Ʒ]bnszligːǨAŅ0)G

ˮȲ 7 SDE (stimulering duurzame energie) UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrYD7ɖAtildeʬ1GǓǎbX ĎȲ26 đɔaRZn134Ƿccedilǿ-ɥampđɔb13KƿA3-401ȲƧ

38

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3atildeˮ4ɯouml1D)ŃuumlGA3 9Έ12 kWh13Έ17 okWhͿż4ɥ

ŐE 5ƀ3^wbŋʢ1DGͿˬOtildeş1D)ŃuumlGA3 25kW35okWͿĸdegʡʭʡ]bnKĠͿ-GƔʿ3Oacute4aRZn1D)˒ɮ0Gś3ʰƾ4ƀ 23otildeĜ-ŀdivideGƦŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷKēǧampƀ|b3Ouml 80-˺GaR

ZnKɥG˚ugrave3NjAEligʿ-GͿǕƃ4ˇŹǷɞ 15D7Oumlɞ 6ͼKȜƦŚGoumlmiddotʇ4ub`n1ļ+˺K˖)GȰlaquoʌ4 255ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A 0ĔTHORNɅ4Yacuteəźľ-3Ǵŋʢ1DGoumlł-FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ1D)yacuteYj

K)Gyumlƽɱ0dividePdlOzfynSrYƷotildeƊ1D)NjAEligHG

3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4˹ʌė˃0ĔTHORNɅKƾamp0ɯbrvbarȐʿKĠ==0brvbarȐiquest1ɥHF1

43iacuteƄ1DFƯƖʌ 421ťeumlɲKƖGɯbrvbarȐʿAG

(f) Q54Q1 -ɥampmg4Uh3 FIT otildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3˩ʙ-ɥampđɔaRZn3agrave˘mg-

G (Lensink et al 2009 Cleijne et al 2010)

422 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh3ȳͶoumlaRZn-4ƈˬ˴ėKƖǰņ 50 m2ˠȕ3QOoyMKƈˬG-

Gƕ)deg˘ɱ0ȳaRZn3ˬOtildeş4 100Έ300 MW-Fʡʭ1NjAEligHGȜģɯouml4szligːǨ 3300Έ4000ǨɸƎ-G2008ƀ1 Prinses AmaliaQOoyMřƭamp1ʆmg14$3]bnȒ4ƛAĠ=H0

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4 2500Έ3500kW3475Έ4865okWͿ-G2008ƀ1řƭampaRZn4$

3ǘƀntilde1Famp˴ė3iacuteǼacute3ampȣɱũĺ3 V90ĺ 2 MWͶKɥG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ɥbrvbarȐʿ3ɥśʷ3Ū01DFʰƾ14ņ0ʄśƟœķGƀʰƾ4 90

kW125okWͿLJŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZn|b3˺ȒKɥF$3Ouml3otildeĜ4 50-GPrinces

AmaliaQOoyM3˺4aRZnȢ1˖)GWACC3ƦŚOacute4ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3Ƿ]bn3ordmOacute-H4 NuonShellƯDzG OWEZecirc3Ǡœ3ȳQOoyM1ɥEHampOacute-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A Ǡœ3QOoyM4Ǣ MEP˩ɩ1ļ+˚ugraveKĖF97MWh135oMWhͿ3ijŚ

FITĽŌKƖampfynPdlOz3˚ugraveɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 3mg4Ľɯ˘$3reg3agraveɱ1eumlɥ-GƥĽ1ļ+A3-ƥĽ1ŸɮGľĜ4ʆHamp

ƥĽ1ļ+m[-˚)G

39

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘1ěƀ1ƦŚampD7ȳͶoumlɯ3OacuteKʆ2007ƀ3aRZn]bn4 2008ƀǨ

ɏ3n1G-ʆGUgrave 4-5 3ouml3źľEgraveȉ14ĕƊ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnǴŋʢ3otildeƊɞĠ=HG

Ugrave 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 1 15 120 NA Ͷļǘ ļ 1 5 60 NA ɯ szligːǨ 2000 2200 3350 NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 15 NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1120 (1557) 1325 (1842) 3315 (4608) NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 40 (56) 24 (33) 92 (128) NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) NA NA NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

Ugrave 4-4 JN6uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 5 5 5 NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 15 15 12 NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 50 NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 50 NA WACC ͼ 60 60 79 NA

Ǵ ƀ 10 15 10 NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 255 255 255 NA

FXn $US 139 139 139 NA

Ugrave 4-5 JN6uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (81) 56 (78) 59 (82) NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 663 (922) 28 (39) 97 (135) NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ 37 20 44 NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

43 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ƛ˞0˴ėKƖG3ampogP0)

G

40

431 JN6uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 4-2 JN6rmicroQ1plusmnecircxpsup327

(b) BL0+dj Uh3Ͷ3ːɞ4ʢ 25-FszligːǨ 2200 ǨͿđɔb3 30DFAfrac12FIT 1DG

˚ugrave4szligːǨ 2200 ǨKGG4 SDE ˠiacute3˳ʧKʾƬ$HDFAfrac12ˬŚHGͿamp2200ǨDFAŅɯGamp3PdlOz4ŚHGE1˞0˞į4B4FͶȯ-G

432 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4Đ3ĪͲ1EcircGė˃ƟGszligːǨ 2200Ǩsup2KɯGPdl

Oz4ŚHGͶ3ˬ˩$HHBBɮ0)Fƕ)EgraveȉŘ0Gė˃Ɵ4ǃ-0

Aring5ĝ ɯȗKAuml)AgzoũľĜƷ]bnfrac12szligːǨŀdivideG

(b) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ0)Gį4ĸdeg3-Fƀʢ 10kW15okWͿ-G

(c) ccedilntildeacirciacute-113T-1 đɔbȣGUh3Ͷoumlɯ4Ȱlaquoʌȣɱfrac12 (255ͼ) eumlɏAGǑĐ]bn

4ʾƬ0

433 s_F(=2E

Uh3ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ43ʍ͵3PdlOziacuteƄ3ơƣKĖG-G$30A34 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ-2007 ƀ=-1HK˞ȨampaRZn1ťMEP ˮȲ 81DF 10 ƀijŚotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligH2008 ƀsup21HK˞ȨampaRZn3ľĜ4SDE 1DF 15 ƀŃuumlotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligHG3 FITiacuteƄ1divideaRZn3ľĜ4ǰņƷ]bn 600kW834okWͿ1ťƷ]bn3 443ʌdž3Ʒ˚ugrave (EIA) D7otildeƊɞ 13fynKeumlɥG

ĎȲ27 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ ˮȲ 8 MEP (Milieukwaliteit Elektriciteitsproductie) Uh3oumlɣɤ1GȰƓ

41

-G

x 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup328

434 aringmH7B

Uh3yacuteYj42007 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn1˧5Ugrave 4-6 đɔͿʢ ndash36 MWhndash50oMWhͿPpb3Oacute10)GH4Đ3MEP3 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3ˬ˩3Ș1DGA3-˚ugraveͳ3ļɵ0)ampoumlEgraveȉK 2Έ3 MWh3Έ4 oMWhͿfrac12ƦŚamp1DGoumlEgraveȉ 6~8 MWh 1ǤG1HŪ0AoumlEgraveȉ4ͶoumlaRZn4ż1ͺoumlɱ0A310)ampƔʮiacuteƄ-G SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ1ļ+ 2008 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn143ȘĕFHyacuteYj4 ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿBBPpb3Oacute10)GěʍaRZn3ɯ]bn3Ž4ndash3 DFA4G1ņɏ1ȲƧG3ampndash3MWh4oMWhͿPpb3Oacute4eKņĮGA3-40 ȳͶoumlɯ3b3yacuteY4Ɗʯ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-)ampH4ɷDžƖampyacuteƥ

Ľ1ļ+A3-40Princes AmaliaQOoyM3Ȫʙ1İɣ amp4ǥE-G

44

Uh4ŧǽ1A 2020ƀ1AD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Dzdz0ɶȔOacuteKŚGɠķ3 SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ4HKśɠGamp3ǰA˞0k-G43 Eacute3ccedilǿʫȁEUh3brvbarAring1GyacuteYj4ʹ˒-40JG ugraveKƖampɯouml4szligːǨ 2200Ǩ=-1iacuteHG3ǘOacute4Uh3Ͷȯ1ċampA3-G2200Ǩsup23ɯ1ťGPdlOz4ŚHFHAƷ]bnfrac123į-Gė˃ƟGʰƾ4ĸdeg3ampȣɱ

0)G

ĎȲ28 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

42

Ugrave 4-6 JN6Iumlsectpsup329

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

91 (126)

94 (131)

166 (231) NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

127 (177)

96 (133)

161 (224) NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash36 (-50)

ndash3 (-4)

5 (7) NA

rOtildemiddot

Cleijne JW SM Lensink and CJ Faasen (2010) SDE Wind op land met vollasturen en differentiatie [SDE wind onshore with full load hours and differentation] ECN-E--10-001 Petten January 2010

Lensink SM JW Cleijne M Mozaffarian AE Pfeiffer S L Luxembourg and GJ Stienstra (2009) Eindadvies basisbedragen 2010 [Final advice SDE premium base rates 2010] ECNKEMA ECN-E--09-058 Petten November 2009

Rijksoverheid (2010) Nationaal actieplan voor energie uit hernieuwbare bronnen Richtlijn 200928EG [National Renewable Energy Action Plan Directive 200928EG] Den Haag June 2010

Statistics Netherlands (2010) online databank httpstatlinecbsnl VoorburgHeerlen August 2010

ĎȲ29 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

43

Aring 5Auml 1CN

51 1CNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bP3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯŮ1G=ampɚŚ3 EU 3ɶȔ1ļ+ CO2ǃaeligethȿ3amp

1 2020 ƀ 2030 ƀ1ƦŚHGɶȔOacuteKʆE1ˠiacute3ȂʩgtK˷ǥGraquo$30Ȓƭ˞ʥK˟ɷordfȾoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3]bn3ƐKŪ0Gamp1ɠķ˖JHGͿ E1 2008ƀ1GbPźľ3deg˘ɱ0QOoyM3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) K˷ǥ$3sup3

ŚKregĴ1GͶoumlɯ3]bnȣG

511 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac12frac34laquo

2009ƀǶǨɏ-Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4 19149 MW1bP3oumlʡʭ1 3ɭɶ1ņ0Ʌ0)GbP3Ͷoumlɯɯ4 90ƀdegĄ51Ő=F2001ƀsup24ǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşƀſĹ-ʢ 1800MWdivideHampˠiacuteǔȜHamp 2004ƀ 2007ƀ14Ĵɟplusmn 4362004D7 6612006Ϳ3şņŽ1ŀdivideamp3ˠiacute3ǔȜ1DF$HKeumlɥampǝˠaRZn3ʑ(EumlHamp

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯouml42009ƀ3bP3SrYʱ˞3ʢ 14KĈG x 5-14ŅĴȣ3ťƀ-G 2008ƀ=-1bP1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3H=-3ʦʏˬOtildeş

ƀŨTHORNşKʆG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3mg4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3SrY˖uuml˩ɩNREAPͿ1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)2020ƀ3currenɂ4SrY˞3 20Kaumlɣė˃SrY- EU3ɶȔƭ1ğampǘOacute-G

x 5-1 1CNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

x 5-1 4bP-H=-1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşD7notƔˬʹHG˟=HGˬOtildeşKʆG=ampƀŨTHORNşKx 5-21ʆ2009ƀbPǕƃ4 2010ƀE 2012ƀ=-3ěƀ1ˬʹG MWşKiacuteGamp3otildeƎKŚG1amp=ampoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3ƐKȿ Gamp3˩ɩKnotƔ3Ȱplusmn1ʩgtL-ɯ˘ampszlig3aumlɣė˃SrY]aRr`3

Ĝ˩ş 6000 MW4ʱoumlĕƊ3 25KĈH4ʪȽĊȗ-4ɚ1]bn-GͿ

44

bP1GȳͶoumlɯ30Ł4ņȍ0-F3ampȮų3ȦȻ 50m 10)Gƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ-4ͳ0ļʅ˞0F$3ampHE3aRZn3ś˖ė˃Ɵ4iacute

HGE1aacuteʡɏ-4ȺĀŇɓWbļĸ1ˬʹHG]uPo^PZWbgw3

ɯ1DG~nrjZœķGampNZdbşEHampA310)G

Ugrave 5-1 1CNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

16 22 34 49 62 85 100 116 151 167 23 35

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 5-2 1CNoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

16 06 12 15 13 23 15 16 35 16 15 14

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

512 s_CcedilN3N9A

Ȱɱ1currenƦHGEacuteɲKĖGamp14ͶoumlɯaRZnKɚecirc3iacuteƄ131ccedil͵Gƛ˞G

ʟĴ3ȉ˴ŚiacuteƄĝȓͿH4ͶoumlɯaRZnʡʭ1UacuteYacuteDžʯ-GũłbrvbarȐʿAacuteocircouml

KĕE250E0Ϳamp=ampEgraveȉˠiacuteHGamp-GĴɟƿplusmn 6612007-˘ǥHampD1Ͷoumlɯ3ǓƱbX14ˠiacuteǛbXźľĎɡ3 2G

ˠiacuteǛbX4QOoyMƯDzʿƸampǴ1GͶoumlɯ3ʻyacuteɱ0ijŚĕƊ

Egraveȉ-Gx 5-23ǘOacuteͿ ǰʨɱ0Egraveȉ 1Ǩ3ɪEgraveȉoumlPdlOz1ļ+oumlčźľEgraveȉ3ʩgtĜJ-Ȫ=GI3źľĎɡ4ĽŌ13AĤ5HGƕ)ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿĖĕGǛ4

Egraveȉ1ŷęHG10F3Egraveȉż1frac12ľĜ4ǰfrac12Egraveȉsup2-H5ˬ

EHGx 5-34ˠiacuteǛ3đɔOacuteKʆG

x 5-2 Ucircgntilde1)QEAcirc ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

45

ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ4ntildeǡźľ3ɯ˩ɩKNjaeligcurrenɂKɥ3˩ɩś3ɯouml3currenɂ˶ŸKȿE

D1GE1==0ĸĻ1ƈˬHampQOoyMɸuml1˚Ugrave-˶ŸKŪ0Gamp

1==0aRZn[ĀHG3`bl1DFN``bl3ȴɥ

ʬ˺ǙKǰĀG-$3]bn34ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿǓƱ)G2008 ƀ4ʢ 15 MWh205oMWhͿ-)amp ˫3Oacute4Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120071D)ȸʿEgraveȉƿǘ (CPI) 1ļ+ǭǝH2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝ

ɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp x 5-34Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073ǟ˖sup2Ɣ3 FITǛiacuteƄ3ŃuumlKʆampA3-G2007ƀĴɟƿplusmn 6612007

1DF CPI1Ȯ) FITǔ˨HG10F2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp2010ƀ14ǭǝHampOacutePpb10FntildeƀKĮ)ampH4 CPIe1)ampamp-G bP3ʡʭɥʿ-G Red Electrica de Espantildea (REE) 1DH5ˬ Otildeş3 94ijŚEgraveȉĕU`

1D)ɥHGampčoumlźľEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ƐH0x 5-4Ϳ

x 5-3 ~BINcentIcircceyuml~[umlāntildeĀ ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

x 5-4 dividejo~uumljfrac14divideethyuml2008Ā ǛΆ Spanish TSO (REE)

Ͷoumlɯ3ņccedil4čźľ-ɷDžłHGampĽ4Egraveȉ1ņŷęHŇɓWbEgraveȉȦouml

ɯ3ɛȯ0E71Ĵźľ1G CO2 Egraveȉ3Egraveȉ1ƐG3amp 2008 ƀ14ſǡEgraveȉ4 6443MWh8956oMWhͿ0F2007ƀ3 3935MWh5470oMWhͿK 64Į)ampH4ɠķ=-1˫HampEgraveȉ-ǰAͳ-G Ͷoumlɯ3źľĕƊEgraveȉKx 5-31oumlčEgraveȉKx 5-51ʆYacute1ampD1Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073brvbar

Aring-43Egraveȉ4E=-3ʜıatilde1GſǡoumlčEgraveȉ1ļ+EgraveȉĽŌ3Ĝ˩Oacute-G

46

x 5-5 dividejBQK[umllcedilyuml2003Ą2009Ā ǛΆOMEL and Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

52 1CN 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-2008 ƀ1GbP3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKHKreg3đdivideĴ1GͶoumlɯɯ3ěʍmȣG

521 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

ɚecirciquestiacute13`blKeumlɥGamp14bP3QOoyM3ˠȕ 50 MWK40E0ˬ ʹampQOoyM3ſĹˠȕ4ʢ 25 MW-˩ ʙQOoyM3ˬOtildeşK 2007ƀA 2008ƀA 30MWsup3ŚG Ğɶ3ɥǨ4Śȉaeligouml-ƀ 1700ǨE 2350Ǩ=-==-G2008ƀ3szligĴſĹ4 2085

ǨͿ=ampaRZn3đɔOacute4 2007ƀ- 2200Ǩ2008ƀ- 2150Ǩ-)amp bP-ɥEHGszlig3ʪȽm-4aRZn3ɥǴ4 20ƀGraquoH4Q

OoyM3śʷ4E0Ϳ2007ƀ 2008ƀ14aRZn3Py^PZK 20ƀG

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹˠȕ4 1985 kW-2007ƀ3 1621 kWEJ1ŀdivideamp3m-ȏ˪G34 2000 kW3Ͷ0J(3QOoyM-4 2 MW3Ͷ 15ļͿ-G

x 5-6 2008THORNOacuteuumlegrave2bszlig ǛΆ Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

47

(b) ccedil-1 ƀ3Ʒʱͳ0)amp34Zb III D7 IV ˮȲ 93ņĺͶoumlɯ˙ʹˬʹHampE-

FƎeacuteEĶʡʭ93ʡBěʍʌcurrenɂHampJ-40 $H1AJEƀ4ĎǺǛ]bn3frac121DFͶ3]bnȿŪG=ampǕĊȗˠiacute3

Ńǭ1DFͶ3˞Afrac12ampQOoyM93Ʒʱͳ1ĈGͶ3]bn4ʢ 70Έ73ͼ-G3]bn4ĎǺǛ3Egraveȉɠķ3[jo]o1Ɇ ampƛ˞0ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵ1šDž1EcircG

2007ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn14Ʒ]bn4 1233kW1714okWͿ2008ƀ14 1250kW1738okWͿLJŚHG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾAaeligoumlƶiacuteȒatildeoumlȸ3amp3oumlǛˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵŀamp1DFŀdivide

Gʰƾ4 2007ƀ 1910MWh2655oMWhͿ2008ƀ 1963MWh2729oMWhͿLJŚHG100ͼŃuumlͿHE3]bn4|3ŃuumlƟdegǯĦ3eumlɥė˃Ɵƛ˞HGɕʶƴ˗ʿBȗȋ˙ʹ)amp˞į1G Ͷoumlɯȗ3^Pc4ƼņGͶȯ3ǰAD^Pn4-1eumlɥHGampŚȉǨ4ȿŪ

G10G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȞĘɱ1bP-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯKbPĴatilde3˖3oumlD7ŘŚampȰɱȂ

ʩgt1ļ+aRZn3yacuteiquestiacute1D)˺amp$H1AJEȵuumlƟKȘamp˺iacute

Ƅ3amp13 2ƀ-ɛȯŃĀAgraveE3ƺIgrave1DGIgrave˯ƛ˞10)G ˺]bn42007ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ1ˬŚHG2007ƀ2008

ƀAǷOuml3ȣɞ4 2ť 8-G2008ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A źľ93ł1DGĔTHORN42007ƀ1 394MWh548oMWhͿ2008ƀ1 644oMWh895o

MWhͿ-)amp3ĔTHORN1ť2007ƀ1 348MWh483oMWhͿ2008ƀ14 215MWh299oMWhͿ˰EgraveHamp FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideHGFITǕʘǴ4(E3bA 20ƀ1ijŚHG

(f) Q54Q1 1ʆampmg4bPͶoumlɯąmiddot (AEE) D7 Intermoney śǟampʃʐ1ļ+A3-G

522 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

bP3ȳͶoumlɯSN4 62SN1ccedilotildeHHE3SN-4ͶoumlɯˠiacuteHGHE3SN1ťTHORNǸ˖JHG10G3śɱPq`NizK5currenɂHGQOo

yM3ˠȕ4ʢ 1000 MW-G

(b) ccedil-1 mg0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig mg0

ˮȲ 9 Zb III4sectʬ˵Ũɯȗ (DFIG) D7ccedilŚȉ3]ugKɥampͶZb IV4ĝǴɯȗD7y

Śȉ]ugE0GͶccedil͵HG3ccedil͵ǞȰ3˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

48

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mg0

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A mg0

(f) Q54Q1 mg0

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 5-25-54sup23 LCOEccedilǿ-ɥampm[3ntildeNjǼacuteKʆA3-G]bn3sup3Ś4szlig 2007

ƀ 2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZnK˘A3-2008ƀnǨ3-˘ʆG

Ugrave 5-3 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 30 30 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ 15 15 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ 2200 2150 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1233 (1714) 1250 (1738) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 191 (266) 196 (272) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA

Ugrave 5Ă4 1CNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 9 10 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 6 7 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 NA NA Ǵ ƀ 15 15 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 30 30 NA NA

FXn $ 139 139 NA NA

Ugrave 5-5 1CNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 53 (74) 54 (75) NA NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 34 (47) 35 (49) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ

ͼ 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 20 20 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 36 (51) 37 (52) NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

49

523 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 5-7 1CNrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup330

(b) BL0+dj bP3ͶoumlɯaRZn4đɔbDFAˬOtildeeumlɥɞfrac12ͶȯbP3szligːǨ1Ɛ

GampbP3 LCOE4đɔb3 LCOEDFA 18MWh25oMWhͿ0)Gđɔb3ſĹːǨLJŚ 2680Ǩ-G31ťbP4 2150Ǩ0)G szligːǨ4bP3 LCOE đɔb3 LCOE 3Ÿɮ13ǰA˞0Ńǘ-GͶȯ1divide

ʰƾAđɔbKĮ)FH14ĸdegD7ĸĻBˇȬiquest˞ȨGeumlɲɞAĠ=HG LCOE33˷ǥ0Gʖ 33˞į4˺]bn-F3ͳ4aRZn3WACCD7ǰʨɱ

1ě3Ʒ1˞ȨHGƷĔɲɞ (ROI) KŀdivideG

(c) ccedil-1 bP3Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4ʢ 1250kW1738okWͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 200

kW278 okWͿŘbP-4Ʒ]bnfrac12ampLCOE 4 10 MWh14 oMWhͿfrac120G ǑĐ]bn4QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘʨpoundamp3ɯˬOtilde3˥iquest]bnKĠampͳ-ʱƷ]

bn3ʢ 3ͼKĈG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bP3brvbarAring1Gyacuteɛȯ1ˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlɲɞ4đɔbDFA0)G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig bP-4ʰƾđɔbDFA0)GbP3ʰƾʱͳ14ʌĸdeg

ʚɡ]bnKĠamp3ŃuumlĠ=HGnotƔ3ʪethȿoumlˇŞȸǛ3ǤˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ

˜Ɵ3=F1DFʰƾAŀdivideG˟gt-G ſĹbP3ʰƾ4ʢ 196MWh272oMWhͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 7

MWh10oMWhͿ

ĎȲ30 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

50

524 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

Yacute1ampD1bP14 FIT iacuteƄͶoumlɯ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄͿźľiacuteƄźľEgraveȉͶoumlɯ3ĽŌͿ 23ǓƱiquestʡG2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ3ʢ 91ͼKźľiacuteƄ1DFłampH4ɯȐʿDFŅ3ĔTHORNKƖEHGamp-G x 5-8 4ĔTHORN3ŃǘȥǛͿͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOz3ŃǘbP1GźľiacuteƄ

3ĽŌͿKȣampA3-G

x 5Q-8 1CNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup331

525 aringmH7B

bP3mccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿ-G3EſĹbP3ͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOzEaRZnɯ

3yacute˞acuteKɄamp-G3ăccedil0Xj`yKƖGJG

53 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 5Ă6 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+psup332

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

76 (106)

83 (115) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

87 (121)

86 (120) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash11 (ndash15)

ndash3 (ndash4) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2009) ldquoEoacutelica 09 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Julio 2009)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileANUARIO20COMPLETO5B15Dpdf

ĎȲ31 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ32 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

51

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2008) ldquoEoacutelica 08 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Junio 2008)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee- publicaAEE_anuario_ingles08pdf

AEE ndash Intermoney (2006) ldquoEstudio de costes del sector eoacutelico Realizado por Intermoney para AEE (2006)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee-publica060612-Gen-EolicaEsp- PRALpdf

Comisioacuten Nacional de la Energiacutea (CNE) wwwcnees

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Red Eleacutectrica de Espantildea (REE) Spanish TSO wwwreees Royal Decree 6612007 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacionRD_661-2007-REpdf Royal Decree 4362004 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacion(36)RD436_2004pdf Spanish Market Operator (OMEL) wwwomeles

52

Aring 6Auml 1$QN

61 1$QNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bQRm3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙ0E71 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿK˷ǥG

611 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş42004ƀ1 474 MW)amp3 2008ƀǶ14 937 MW0)Gx 6-1ͿbQRmĆ3ȳQOoyM3ˬOtildeş4 2007ƀ14 110 MW-)amp=ampqN`N133Ƀ-3ɯAEHG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯcurrenɂ4EUdivideɳĴ3ěĴaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 3mg1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)

x 6-1 1$QNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_Uacuteuacute

ǛΆVinkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 and European Commission 2010 Ugrave 6-14bQRm1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=amp

Ugrave 6-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 6-1 1$QNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

220 220 272 322 381 429 470 560 698 951 2065 4365

ȳ 10 20 23 23 23 23 23 23 133 133 150 182

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

53

Ugrave 6-2 1$QNoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

ndashndashndash 05 51 50 59 48 41 90 138 253 278 288

ȳ ndashndashndash 10 25 0 0 0 0 0 110 0 4 4

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

612 s_CcedilN3N9A

bQRm-4aumlɣė˃SrY1DGɯ3ǓǎʘĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ (TGC) KŨTHORNG$3ɶɱ42016ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 17 TWh1ŀB-G3ɶȔOacuteK2020ƀ=-1ė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 25 TWh1GE1OacuteGampɠķ3iacuteƄ3ǔȜȏ˪HG=ampbQRmsQR3aacute`bl3Ȓʝ1ğampordfȾ˖J

HG 2008 ƀ=-4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ˖ɢĿĽŌ13AĤ5HGijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) Ͷoumlɯ

1ɥHamp3ɢĿĽŌ134ȳͶoumlɯ14 2009ƀ=-eumlɥė˃-)amp=amp 2003ƀ1vPjnaRZn3Ǔǎ˩ɩŐHampȳͶoumlɯţaringȥNtildeȎȀĸŻ-3Ͷoumlɯ)

ampˉģȻ˟0HampaRZn12008 ƀE 2012 ƀ=-3Ǵ1 3710 5160 oͿ3currenʙotildeƎEHG

2006 ƀʈǕƃ3ɢĿƐccedilǿ1Gˠiuml0E71ǝˠͶoumlɯaRZn3˴ėdbʞɬĀH25 MW=-3QOoyM4ˇȬiquest1ŭaeligH5ˬʹ-G0)amp ͶɅ3eumlɥ1GƥĽKƁcedilGampbQRmǕƃ3Ũ3Ͷoumlɯ3eumlɥ1GĴatilder

jnZĎȲ33ȒʝHamp3rjnZ1DFͶoumlɯ3˩ɩʘŚD7˴ŚʋuacuteOslashoumlbrvbarȐ3ɯ

Ůʰƾʚɡ1Gʀ˾KȻbQRm3ͶoumlɯɯaRZnKEumlH

G E1Ͷoumlɯ3]mOrgKɥɯbrvbarȐʿEcircƎŬ0E71ĸUcircĸĻĴ3ě|1

GEcircʿ3ordfȵEumlKIJ)G

62 1$QNVUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

621 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bQRm-43aRZn3szligːǨ4 2600Έ3050 ǨĽġHGżbQR

m3Ͷoumlɯj1ʆHGszligːǨ4ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿNjaeligampǘŒKĮ)

G3amp˩ʙ-4bQRm3aRZn3ǰʨɱ0ͶoumlɯǨKĽġHampʜı3 2600ǨͿG

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3aRZn42008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZn3]bnD7ɯoumlēǧ

Hampdeg˘ɱaRZnŚʻHamp Ƿ]bn4ampF 12171915kW1692Έ2662okWͿ=-Fmccedilǿ-4 1591kW2212okWͿsup3Śamp

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3ijŚccedil4ſĹ 0004 kW0006 okWͿŃuumlccedil4ʢ 11 MWh15 o

ĎȲ33 httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse đɔ

54

MWhͿLJŚG3Ńuuml4 7 MWh10 oMWhͿE 24 MWh33 oMWhͿ=-FvPjnaRZn1Gʰƾ4ż1ŃuumlņɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒

ɮ0)G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 Ugrave 6-51ʆD1mccedilǿ-4OumleumlőKƷŞżĽġG 5˟L-GͶoumlɯ1Ʒ

GparaȐ3middot˩Ľġ3ccedilǿ-420ͼƍOuml]bnʆHGbQRm3paraȐccedilǿEŨaeligampƛ˞0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞʫ7macrOumleumlőɞK 5LJŚampľĜͶoumlɯ3]bnKũ˰EgraveG10F20

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ǵŋʢ1DGźľ93oumlłŨTHORNHGĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ

23ĔTHORN3ȵH1D)KƖG(E3ĔTHORNɅAʄśƟż12008ƀ=-FITĽŌiacuteƄAɥHFͶoumlɯaRZn4 2 MWh3 oMWhͿŪͳ3ĽŌKĖamp

(f) Q54Q1 LCOE˩ʙ3mg4˫3D0ɥǓǎ˩ɩ3ʫȁD7Ĵatilde3_3amp1bQRmSrY

Ŭ=ampmg)amp˜ǘ3ƥĽɅ1ļ+A3-GǑĐ]bn4 Svensk Vindenergi (2009) 3mgKAumlɥampbQRm3Ͷoumlɯ˩ɩ1Gʭ˩Oacute4bQRmSrYŬȢƀɯ˘

GĽġǮ ES20103 ldquoVindkraft statistic 2009 (Wind power statistics 2009)rdquoD7 Vindkraft Statistik 20081ļ+G2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯǨ4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ3mgKAumlɥGE1Ͷoumlɯ3ɯȐbrvbarʿEʆmg3NjAEligKĖamp=ampEcircGotildeƊɞKǥE1Gampmiddot˩ǛKđɔampE14˚Ǜ O2 0E71 AriseȇƉźľ3ŨTHORN1GbrvbarȐaeligɘəEŦŞ3Ƨ˟KƊɥamp

622 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

2008ƀǨɏ-ŨTHORNHampbQRmǰņ3ȳaRZn4Lillgrunden3 11 MW3aRZn-)amp3aRZn4 Vattenfall 2004ƀ1Ɗʮ2007ƀ1ʡʭ1ʡHampLillgrundenaRZn-4 Siemens3 23 MWͶ MKII 48ļAumlɥHG$3( 13ļ4 2004ƀsup2ntilde1ʡʭ1ʡHGbQRm3ǰǝaRZn4 3 MW3Ͷ 10ļKOtildeamp GaumlsslingegrundaRZn-H4 VaumlnernɃ3Ģ 7Έ13m1ļʅKˬʹampqN`N133aRZn-G

Ugrave 6-3 LillgrundenBL0+Z

Lillgrundenmg Ά ļɆȷDF 115 m gɷƑΆ 924 m ʱʏΆ 6734 m2 iacuteƗǞȰΆ ėŃxjiD7ėŃƄ gƄΆ 6Έ16 rpm ǰņYacuteʔƄΆ 280 kmh gΆ 60 t pdΆ 82 t gΆ 110 t LJŚƀɯoumlΆ 6875500 kWh ˬOtildeeumlɥɞΆ 35ͼ ſĹͶΆ 85 ms

55

Ugrave 6-4 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 235 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 41 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2600 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1591 (2212) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 0004 (0006) NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 16 (222) NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 6-5 1$QNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 12 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 87 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 13 NA NA WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 47 NA NA

Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 28 NA NA

FXn SEKeuro ndashndashndash 942 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

Ugrave 6-6 1$QNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 50 (70) NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 25 (35) NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 2 (3) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 1 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

623 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

x 6-2 1ʆD1bQRm3 LCOE 4đɔbDFʢ 1 MWh1 oMWhͿfrac120)G

56

x 6-2 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1psup334

(a) BL0+dj bQRm3szligːǨ4đɔbDFAH4ͶoumlɯaRZn1eumlɥ-Gĵĸʏ

^[ampreg3Țŵ˽ĴDFAņampƎɓ3-G

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3Ʒ4oumlɯaRZnTGC `bl2001 ƀEŨTHORNͿ0E71Ǡœ3 NordPool

ʡʭ1995ƀEoumlĕƊͿ3amp1đɔbDFABB0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig đɔbbQRm3ʰƾ3Ÿɮ4ǰũ3A3-H4^1DGė˃Ɵʹ˒

-40

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bQRm3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12H4bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ93Ʒ1

GbZ3|frac12E-FbQRm3Ͷoumlɯɯ1GʪEƎɓ3˧G

x 6-3 1$QNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup335

ĎȲ34 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

57

624 s_CcedilN3N9A

ĔTHORN4 1Ϳoumlł1DGĔTHORN2Ϳ[˯Ǯł1DGĔTHORN3ͿFITE3Ūͳ3ĔTHORN2009ƀ1ƆțͿ3 3-ȒƭHG ĔTHORN4źľE33ȵH-GampʄśƟņ0b-4ȥǛ4 50 MWh

70 oMWhͿ-ŘŚG˟0H[˯ǮEgraveȉ4ʢ 25 MWh35 oMWhͿ)amp2009ƀ1OacuteHamp

625 aringmH7B ſĹɱ0aRZn14ouml3źľEgraveȉ TGCiacuteƄ3˚UgraveKʩgtĜJG-ăccedil1]bnK

-GD-G

Ugrave 6-7 1$QNIumlsectpsup336

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 75

(104) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash8

(ndash11) NA NA

63 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 6-7 1ʆampD1bQRm3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˇŹǷ]bnD7Ouml]bnfrac12amp1ǷdivideſĹĎEgrave (WACC) ȣɱfrac120)GD-GaRZn3AEligʬ4Ouml1DGǷ˺1DGA3-macr3˺Ǵ4 20ƀ-G$HDFAmacrǴʁľĜA$EG˕Ǵ3ʨpoundǨ1ʸFHG bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ4ȞĘ=ampƀƞ1ƭG2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrY

ɅK 25 TWh1GɶȔKƭGamp14ͶoumlɯKE1ɯŮƛ˞G

rOtildemiddot

Dagens Industri wwwdise 2010-03-16 Storm kring vindkraftsbolag

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

E24 wwwe24se 2010-03-16 Vindkraftsbolagen anklagas foumlr glaumldjekalkyler Nationellt naumltverk foumlr vindbruk (national network for winduse) httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse

Svensk Vindenergi 2009 Vindkraftverk ndash kartlaumlggning av aktiviteter och kostnader vid nedmontering aringterstaumlllande av plats och aringtervinning

Vinkraftstatistik 2009 ES 20103 2010 Swedish Energy Agency available at

ĎȲ35 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ36 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

58

httpwwwenergimyndighetenseGlobalPressPressmeddelandenVindkraftsstatistik202009p df

Vindkraftstatistik 2007 ES 20082 2008 Swedish Energy Agency available at httpwwwenergimyndighetenseen

59

Aring 7Auml 11

71 11uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bPb3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙacirciquestɱ14 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿ3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1GbPb4atildeĴ-GampȳaRZn4œķ0ǪˤIgrave3ampɃȭĸĻ4ɠķͶoumlɯ^PnEńHG

711 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş41996ƀ3 2 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 14 MW1ŀdivideampͶoumlɯ1DGƀɯouml4 2000ƀ3 18 GWhE 2008ƀ3 2020 GWh1ŀdivideampH1ť 2008ƀ3ʱ˞ouml4 587 TWh-Gɠķ˩ɩEHGaRZn1D)2012ƀ14 65 MW3ɯė˃10GLJŚHGǕƃ3SrYǕʘ-4 2030ƀ1 44 MWKɯGɶȔKljG

x 7-1 11uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

Ugrave 7-14bPb1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 7-24ĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-1 11IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

28 28 451 455 456 866 116 116 116 136 176 65 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

60

Ugrave 7-2 11oacute_ethyumlMWĀ

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

28 00 170 065 001 350 290 002 000 200 400 150 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

712 s_CcedilN3N9A

bPb-4 2008 ƀ1oPkĝȓ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄFITͿKŨTHORNamp3`bl4LJŚHG LCOEKamp3A3-GFIT 1Ġ=HG34oumlźľEgraveȉ[ouml3Oacute-GͶoumlɯ14bPb3 FIT4 110MWh153oMWhͿΈ130MWh181oMWhͿ1ijŚHG

72 11VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

721 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZn42 MW3Ͷ 6ļKOtildeamp Juraű˅Ȕ 1000Έ1200 mͿ3

QOoyM-GbPb1GͶoumlaRZn3L2 MW3ͶgɷƑ 82 mtzʢ 8 0mͿKɥG3ĸĻ-4NZdbiacuteHGamp1gɷƑg31ˬEHFŚȉaeligouml 800Έ1000 kWtz 40~60 m3ͶKeumlɥG

(b) ccedil-1 bPb1Gdeg˘ɱ0aRZn3ě3Ʒ]bn4ampF 1790 kW2488 kWͿ-G

Țŵ1GͶ93Ʒ]bn3otildeĜ4ſĹʢ 76bPb-4 55~6810)G34bPb3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn93NZdbďiacuteHGamp=ampbPb-4laquoacuteż1amp-G

3ampɯƯ3ʪȣɱ0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ14bPb-4śʷŪ0ampEWEA agrave˘ampʰƾ3ȣ1ļ+bPb3ʰƾK 31MWh43oMWhͿsup3Śamp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 sup23˘4bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥamp˺]bnKʆG

Ugrave 7-3 ccedilntildeacirciacute-1YacuteEgrave

źľeuml 5 ƛ˞0Ƿeumlɲɞ 7

Ƿ3otildeĜ 30 ˀɥƀǘ 20ƀ ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ 20ƀ

Py 0 Ǵ 20ƀ

ȰlaquoʌɞOECDͿ 21

61

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A bPb14aumlɣė˃SrYɯ3brvbarȐeumlɥ-Gɜʑ3ĔTHORN`bl 2ʍ͵G 64 FIT `bl-H4sup23]bn˩ʙ3ļɵ0GA3-3ȽKĖEHG34Ȧoumlɯ

10 MWsup2atildeͿňɖɯͶoumlɯuPUb0E71uPUbƆǺ-Gaumlɣė˃SrYɅ[vͿ1DGɯ1ɥė˃03Ǜ`bl4ɯǞƉaeligoumlecirc1đɔˬOtilde1ļ+acirciquest

ɱ1ˠŚHěƴ˗3 LCOEK-Gshyʩgt10)GȽ4ɯǞƉ1D) 20Έ25ƀ3Ǵ1ɥHGcurrenƦHGƴ˗db0E71HE3ƴ˗3źľĀEuml1DFHE3Ǜ`bl

-4ͳ3Ƞɱfrac12currenƦHGǛ3ȿͳɥHG34ɰampɯˬOtilde3gt-FHE3ˬ

Otilde4ȽǴK ŚampǛ`bl1DFȽKĖGɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKLľĜ$HĝǨ1oumlźľ-[oumlKłG4-00G ʖ 2 3ĔTHORN`bl4[oumlźľ-GɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKeumlɥ-0ľĜ4źľ-

oumlKłG10Gż$3ĔTHORN4ɯbrvbarȐʿoumlmiddotʇ3ordfȾ1D)ȪŚHGoumlĽŌK

ouml3źľEgraveȉ1divideampͳ-G

(f) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşmg4 Swiss Wind Energy Association ldquoSuisse Eolerdquo1DGA3-GƷ]bn

ʰƾ3mg4 2008ƀ1˩ɩHampͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ȇ1DGA3-G˺]bn4 FIT˩ʙD7 Swiss Federal Office of Energy3mTHORNouml3sup3Ś1ļ+A3-G Ugrave 7-47-64bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOELJŚ1ɥampmĀ1Gsup3ŚKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-4 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 2 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 6 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 1750 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1790 (2488) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 31 (43) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 7-5 11uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 7 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 30 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 70 NA NA Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 21 NA NA

FXn CHFeuro ndashndashndash 067 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

62

Ugrave 7-6 11uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125 (174) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

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ɯȐʿTHORNȐʿ-ordfȾ

73 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

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731 -1plusmnecirc

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(a) BL0+igraveeacuteOgrave bPb-ɯHampouml4đɔbDFA˒Ū00)GH4ͶoumlɯʋƄ-Gamp

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ľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

63

(b) ccedil-1 bPb3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAH4Ņ3^Pn93NZdbİ

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64

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2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

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2008ƀ

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rOtildemiddot

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Erlaumluternder Bericht zur Revision der Anhaumlnge EnV Bundesamt fuumlr Energie 2102009

Swiss Energy Act of June 26 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_0html

Swiss Energy Ordinance of December 7 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_01html

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65

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66

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67

821 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

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68

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69

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(e) Q54Q1 ȳͶoumlɯ3ɚƙ1G˞0mgɅ4ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution

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Ugrave 8-3 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ53

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ54 ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 165 167 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ͷļǘ ļ 73 50 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ɯĎȲ55 szligːǨ 2891 3066 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1241 (1725) 1378 (1915) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʰƾ ijŚͿĎȲ56 eurokW ($kW) 50 (70) 50 (70) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʰƾ ŃuumlͿĎȲ57

euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (80) 58 (80) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

$3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆWiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ51 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ52 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ53 Yacute1ampD1]bn4szlig 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆ ĎȲ54 3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙ4ntildeʛ1ʆGȳͶoumlɯ4ʟĴ3 LCOEccedilǿ14Ġ0 ĎȲ55 eumlɥɞ 2007ƀ 33ͼ2008ƀ 35ͼsup3ŚG (Wiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) ĎȲ56 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampş|b3ʰƾ4 2007ƀ 2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG ĎȲ57 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampɯouml|b3ʰƾ42007ƀ2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG

70

(f) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 8-38-5 4ș1G LCOE ccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3sup3ŚKʆG]bn3sup3Ś4HA 2007 ƀ

2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1GA3-2008ƀƄ3o-˘GmD7ǞȰ3˳˷ǥ4Aring 1AumlKđɔHamp

Ugrave 8-4 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 100 100 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash WACC ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

Ǵ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ȰlaquoʌɞĎȲ58 ͼ 389 389 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FXnĎȲ59 $US 139 139 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆChadbourne and Parke 2009 Harper et al 2007 Schwabe et al 2009

Ugrave 8-5 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

oumlźľEgraveȉĎȲ60 euroMWh ($MWh) 382 (531) 419 (582) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

źľEgraveȉ˯ǥĎȲ61 euroMWh ($MWh)

˫1 Ġ=HG

˫1 Ġ=HG ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FITǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml |bͿĎȲ62

euroMWh ($MWh) 144 (200) 151 (210) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ 10 10 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 6 6 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆHarper et al 2007 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ58 LJŚHampǕƃŵǕƃ3ʌɞ4$HH 35ͼ 6ͼ-Gɏ1ɫƧ (Harper et al 2007)ŵʌ4ĔTHORNEdž

HGamp˜Ĝśucircʌɞ4 389ͼ-G ĎȲ59 szlig3]bn4 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆGamp2007ƀA 2008ƀA 2008ƀǶ3ɐǯnKɥamp

(Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ60 2007ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3EgraveȉˬŚ1Gsup3ŚAWiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+˥amp ĎȲ61 aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3LJŚͳKouml3źľEgraveȉ3˩ʙ1ĠG ĎȲ62 PTCnjʙOacute4 13frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORN

71

823 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯTHORNoumlvgKɥ2007 ƀ 2008 ƀ3 LCOE K˩ʙamp2008 ƀ3ʟĴ LCOE2008

ƀ3ʟĴ3sup3ŚKszligAumlɥͿKđɔb2008 ƀ3đɔb3szligsup3ŚKAumlɥͿȣamp$3ʫȁ4sup23F-G Ĵecirc3ěTHORNoumlŃǘKě3đɔb3sup3ŚEʟĴ3sup3Ś9ŀccedilɱ1degTHORNđɔbʟĴ3 LCOE

3Ÿɮ93ěŃǘ3ƐKLJŚ-GD1ampʟĴ3 LCOE 4 3 MWh4 oMWhͿ-đɔb3 LCOEDFAfrac12x 8-2đɔͿ

x 8-2 EcirczrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup363

(b) BL0+dj ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4ſĹˍō0Ͷȯ3ơƣKĖG-G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ|b3

aRZn-4ſĹ 3066 Ǩ3szligːǨǴƒHGđɔb-4 2628 ǨͿʟĴ-4aRZn3aeligouml0G LCOEđɔbDFAʢ 8MWh11oMWhͿfrac120G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAʢ 72 kW100o kWͿfrac120)G

2008ƀ3ſĹƷ]bn4đɔb 1449kW2029okWͿ-G31ťʟĴ-4 1378kW19195okWͿ-GǑĐ]bnͶoumlɯˬOtilde3ǑĐ]bnaRZn^Pn3ƘUcirc]bnĠ=HGͿ4szliggt3Ʒ]bn1Ġ=HGsup3ŚHGƕ)ʟĴ-4Ʒ]bnfrac12

G1HLCOEđɔbDFAʢ 2MWh3oMWhͿfrac120G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3˺]bn4ˇŹǷ|amp2008ƀ4 100ͼͿ=ampđɔb-4

Ouml1DG˺KɥGampđɔbDFA0)G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯaRZn3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ75ͼͿ4đɔb3Oumleumlɲɞ55ͼͿDFA 200|`bPn0)G ʟĴ-4ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 2007 ƀE 2008 ƀ1ŀdivideampH4ǕĊȗ1DFƕǽ3ǷƷŞ

ĎȲ63 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

72

KŊ)ampamp-G (Schwabe et al 2009)H4=ampư0Egraveȉ3frac34Ŗ)ampreg3ʊʌdžƷAĝȓ3ơƣKƖEHGD1GʟĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY3ʌdžǕʘ3Ɵ1DGA3-3Ǖʘ1DF 2007ƀ1ʢ 6ͼ3eumlɲNjAEligHHȇƉƷeumlɲɞ3KŚG10)amp (Chadbourne and Parke 2007)ʟĴ3˺]bn0GʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 8MWh11oMWhͿ0G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAfrac120)Gʰƾ4ijŚG4Ńuuml-˘-

G3ampđɔb3ȣ-4ŃuumlǼacute-˘ampnjʙćǛ3LJŚOacuteampʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJ

Śʱͳ4 7MWh10oMWhͿđɔb3 13MWh18oMWhͿK4G1Į)ampraquoĽġ1DH5ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯɤȐ4ʰƾʚɡ]bn3˟ʏF1G˞˹Ͳ1ɠķAɷFĽ

ġHampmg4Ǩřszlig-Gamp3LJŚOacute4ƪ1˥Gƛ˞G =ampʰƾ4aRZn3ˠȕũ0G1Hfrac12G˯ƻAG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

HAʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJŚͳđɔbȣfrac120)G3į-GʟĴ3aR

Zn3ˠȕ4đɔbDFAņampͿ=ampʟĴ3ʰƾ4ǝˠaRZn14=DzucircIgrave

˯Ǵatilde-Gamp1ʵĥHGė˃ƟGʟĴ3ʰƾfrac120GʟĴ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFAʢ 6MWh8oMWhͿfrac120G

(f) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4Ƿ]bn˺]bnG4szliggt3ʰƾ1Ġ=HGƦŚHGamp

ʟĴ3ccedilǿ-4ecircmĀ0reg3]bn14ʡʭɥʿ1DGfrac12ĶPob (LVRT) ˞acuteG4ɑucircouml]bnʗGN`^wbǛ4ż4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɷDž˹

HG40

(g) uumljfrac14divideWocirceumlCcediloslash Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ]bn4đɔbDFA0)GHE3Ǖʘ1

41ͿȰlaquoʌɞ2ͿȰlaquo˹ʌƯƖE3eumlőǓƱdžĠ=HGʟĴ3DzucircȰlaquoʌɞ389Ϳ4đɔb30ͿDFA$3amp LCOE0)GE1Ƿ1DG 100˺K˟L-GampʟĴ3 LCOE ˹ʌƯƖ3eumlőǓƱdž1D)ȿͳHG40ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFAʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ0)G

824 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj3˩ʙ1DFʟĴ3ĔTHORNŃǘouml RECͿ3OacuteKͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘȣGyacuteYj4=ĔTHORNǕʘAͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘKĠ

1˩ʙș1ĔTHORNŃǘ3gtKĠauml˩ʙGǰƔ1auml7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘKĠ˩

ʙG3ŀccedilsup3Ś1DFͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘ1ťGĔTHORN3ɸťɱEgraveOacuteKǥE1amp x 8-34ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘĔTHORN3ŃǘKȣHE 23D1ʟĴ3 LCOE

KȒƭGKʆampA3-G2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3 LCOEʢ 41MWh57oMWhͿ4ĔTHORNɅouml REC3łͿ-JHGʢ 24MWh33oMWhͿ4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHGPTCUgraveČ˩ɩ3divideͿotildeĜ-˘0EʟĴ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 24ĔTHORN-ȟF3 3ccedil3 14ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHG

73

x 8-3 Ecirczs_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup364

825 aringmH7B

ʟĴ3mĀccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash1 MWhndash1 oMWhͿ-G3EʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4aRZnɯ1ƛ˞HGyacute˞acuteKɄamp31ăccedil0Xj`

yKĔTHORND7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOzȉGľĜͿEƖG10G34

PTCżǨDzucirc-)amp 2005Έ2009ƀ3ƀͶoumlˬOtildeş3ʯɱ˫EAǥE-GH41ƀŨTHORNş4 PCT]bnɑucirc10)ampǨ1˒ȿŪG (AWEA2009)ĎȲ65

83 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+

ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ƀƞ1ƼņGH4Ͷȯż1ˍō-]bnȣɱfrac12ĔTHORN

Ʌăccedil1F=ampľĜ1D)4Dzɲ0ǕʘPdlOzKeumlɥ-GE-GʟĴ1Gɠķ=

-3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn4HA-śǟHampʟĴeacute0GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯ

EHGʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bn4ˊ1đɔbDFAfrac12H4SrYaeligouml

ņǷ]bnʰƾfrac121DGͶoumlɯ1GǕƃ3ǕʘPdlOzȜ

Ɖ1˴ŚHamp-Ĵatilde3Ņ3szlig-401AͿ3ɯaRZnEumlHG10)amp

E-GĔTHORNǕʘ3PdlOz3ɸiexclucircȁ1DFͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ3yacuteYj4lte10

)G

Ugrave 8-6 EcirczIumlsectpsup366

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

58 (81)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

60 (83)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

ndash1 (ndash1) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ĎȲ64 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ65 x 8-1đɔ ĎȲ66 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

74

rOtildemiddot

AWEA (2010) ldquoUS Wind Energy Industry Breaks All Records Installs Nearly 10000 MW in 2009 Manufacturing

Investment Jobs Still Lagrdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) news release January 26 2010 at httpwwwaweaorgnewsroomreleases01-26- 10_AWEA_Q4_and_Year-End_Report_Releasehtml

AWEA (2009) ldquoAmerican Wind Energy Association Annual Wind Industry Report Year Ending 2008rdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) at httpwwwaweaorgpublicationsreportsAWEA-Annual-Wind-Report-2009pdf

Bolinger M (2010) ldquoRevealing the Hidden Value that the Federal Investment Tax Credit and Treasury Cash Grant Provide to Community Wind Projectsrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL-2909E January 2010 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreportslbnl-2909epdf

Capewind (2010) ldquoCape Wind Signs Agreement to Buy Siemens 36-MW Offshore Wind Turbinesrdquo Cape Wind (Capewind) news release March 31 2010 at httpwwwcapewindorgnews1086htm

Chadbourne and Parke (2009) ldquoTrends in Tax Equity for Renewable Energyrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke January 2009 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication810dde60-3c78-4a9a-9c5d- a5fae8014b4fPresentationPublicationAttachment51fc06c5-1407-48ac-9dff- a605de0f58e1pfn0109pdf

Chadbourne and Parke (2007) ldquoThe Tax Equity Marketrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke April 2007 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication572b04b4- 905e-48e1-8f6b-0f520c4f2615PresentationPublicationAttachment573bdc6c-ff85-4f99-b4d0- 25a845907bccpfn0407pdf

Cory K Schwabe P (2009) ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financing Input Variablesrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL TP-6A2-46671 October 2009 at httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

DOE (2010) ldquoGeneral Loan Guarantee Program Frequently Asked Questionsrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) accessed April 2010 at httpwwwlgprogramenergygovfaq2htm

DOE (2008) ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution to US Electricity Supplyrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2008 at httpwww20percentwindorg

EIA (2009) ldquoAnnual Energy Outlook 2010 Early Release with Projections to 2030rdquo US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration (EIA) website accessed February 2010 at httpwwweiadoegovoiafaeoexcelaeotab_16xls

102Federal Reserve (2010) ldquoHistorical Rates for Euro Areardquo Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System website accessed February 2010 at httpwwwfederalreservegovreleasesh10histdat00_euhtm

GE (2010) ldquo15 MW Wind Turbine Technical Specificationsrdquo GE Energy (GE) website accessed April 2010 at httpwwwgepowercomprod_servproductswind_turbinesen15mwspecshtm

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review amp Comparative Analysisrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports63434pdf

Justice S (2009) ldquoPrivate Financing of Renewable Energy ndash A Guide for Policymakers UNEP Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative Bloomberg New Energy Finance Chatham House December 2009 at httpwwwchathamhouseorgukfiles15542_1209_financeguidepdf

Schwabe P Cory K Newcomb J (2009) ldquoRenewable Energy Project Financing Impacts of the Financial Crisis and Federal Legislationrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory technical report NRELTP-6A2-44930 July 2009 at

75

httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti44930pdf

USOWC (2009) ldquoUS Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo US Offshore Wind Collaborative (USOWC) October 2009 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreports63434pdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2009) ldquo2008 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2009 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports2008-wind-technologiespdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2008) ldquoAnnual Report on US Wind Power Installation Cost and Performance Trends 2007rdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy May 2008 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs43025pdf

76

Uograve AĂsup1agraveUumlaacute

shyocircMQ+Q

BL0+para

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

aRZn3gPn Project title

aRZnĞregĴ3QOo

yMȣGamp AringΆoPk3đɔQOoyM13

aRZn3ʍ͵ Project type

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ʍ͵ A4ȳ

Ͷļǘ Number of wind turbines

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

Ͷʱǘ$EěĴ3ɡ˼

3ſĹɱQOoyMͿ

ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

Śȉaeligouml Rated power

Ͷ 1ļ3Śȉaeligouml ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

gɷƑ Rotor diameter

Ͷ3gɷƑ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

ĖͶʏ Swept area

gͶKĖGszligʏ m2-˘˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

tz Hub height

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ƚĸɏ3ſĹ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽraquotz

3ſĹͶƀɯouml4ɷDž

EcircGͿ tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ

Lond term average wind speed at hub height

tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

Ȝģɯouml Net electricity production

QOoyM3ƀſĹȜ

ģɯouml szligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

ƺʌouml Tax capability

iacute΄ɑiacute ćɜ3aRZn3ľĜ

4ʌiacuteUacuteʘKszligeumlɥ-GͿG4

ˣmiddotʇKƾ3ľĜ4ˣmiddotʇ

Ǝ˲ƀƄ3ʌdžKszligDzucirc1eumlɥ-

GͿ4_Ƹ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4

Ĵʌ΄ʌ3gt1ɥHGŵʌBĸ

Ǟʌ4ńͿ Currency

szlig]bnĔTHORNPdlOz

ʗ3 2007ǫƀ 2008ǫƀ3$HHdeg˘ɱ0ǡ $HH 2007ƀ 12DZ 3ǡ 2008ƀ12DZ 31ǡͿ3ȣ1ļ+1ˬŚ

ijŚƀ]bnćfrac14 Fixed annual costs unit

ijŚʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kW

Ńuumlƀ]bnćfrac14 Variable annual costs unit

ƀʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kWh

ccedil-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ͷ Wind turbine

ͶD7ɯ˙ʹ3Yacute˖Ʒ

]bn ggtzgĖ

oPznPKƿʆGPy

YN~jZb`blxj

i`blzX`blpdt

77

Qa[ɯȗgzoͶ

ɥŃĶĬraraquoļʅG4ʡʭDž

ʯ4Ġ=reg-ƲͿ Ͷ3 Wind turbine transportation

ͶK˛ŶľEaRZ

nɯ^Pn1$1ˬ

ʹ-GD1Gamp3]b

n

Ͷ3aRZn^Pn93Křpound

Gamp1ɥEHG΄n

jZ]bnD7Z3]bnK

Ġ Ͷ3ˬʹ Wind turbine installation

aRZnƈˬǴ3Ͷ

3ˬʹ]bn ƈˬ3Z3]bnKĠ

ũ˩ΆͶ3]bn Sub-total wind turbine cost

Ͷ 3ļsup23]bn3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ļʅ Foundations

QOoyM1ƛ˞0ļʅ

3ʱ]bn ]Zn$3regQOoyM

3ěͶKǓG31ƛ˞0ȒǓȅK

Ġ Ȓatildeʡʭ Internal grid

QOoyM3ŃƯ93

Džʯ1ƛ˞0QOoyM

atilde3ȥʡʭ

QOoyMatilde3szlig3ʳQO

oyM3ŃƯ=-D7ŃƯ

3ʳKĠͿŃƯ1ʡɏDF

ntilde1ʡʭʡŃĶĬGľĜ4$3Ń

ĶĬ=-3szlig3ʳKĠ1șiacuteƗɯ`blKuziacuteƗGamp1ˬʹ

HampiacuteƗ˙ʹͿ3]bnKĠƯDzʿ

D7Ͷ˛brvbarȐʿ1ǖB˿ġKcedilamp

FͶKǒAcirc1DFuumlD7Ocirc

țampFɥʭ˩OacuteKƵǍGamp3

ɴˡiacuteƗ`bl (SCADA)G4QOoyMɴˡ`bl3ˬʹKĠ

ʡʭʡ[jo]o3

Ɇƻ Grid connection grid code compliance

QOoyM3ʡʭʡ1

ƛ˞0ŃĶĬǠœ3oumlʡʭ

-ƛ˞HGȥʡʭ

QOoyMEʡʭ=-3ʳ

0[jo]oɆƻ3amp1ȨE

HGegrave3divideɱ˙ʹĠ=HGQO

oyMʡʭʡŃĶĬKĠ˜ǘ3

ŃƯKDzGľĜʡʭʡŃĶĬ

ʡʭ3ʳ3gtKĠ ʡʭŀƍ Grid reinforcement

˄Ƌ0ʡʭ-4QOoyM

3ʡ3ampʡʭ3reg3ccedil

3ĶʤKG1DF

ʡʭKŀƍGė˃ƟG

Ǡœ3ʡʭ3ŀƍ1ƛ˞0˙ʹ

ŀƍdivideɱiacuteƗ$3reg3macrdivideɱ˙ʹKĠ

Ϳ

ŃƯ Substations and transformer station

ʡʭʡŃĶĬˇiquestD7$H

=-3ĂKĠampQOoy

M3ʡʭatilde1Gszlig3

ŃƯ3]bn

ʡʭ93ʡĸɏ=-ǜĬD7ǜ

ĬKĠŃĶĬ4ĶKǤĶGȥ

ȗĬ-GL3Ͷ4aeligoumlKʡ

ʭĶ1ǤĶGŃĶĬKDzG ũ˩Άȥʡʭ Sub-total electrical netgrid

ȥʡʭ1G˫ 4 ɶ3ũ˩

˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ˴˯ Certification

ʡʭʡG1amp)QO

oyMK˴˯Gamp3]

bn

˴˯Hampˬ˩IJ3]bnD7QOo

yM3ś3ƈˬK3ˬ˩IJȣ

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QOoyM3ɯȠ-

ƛ˞10GɢĿ˺Ȇ3ʱͳH

4ěĴ3ɢĿƐ˰EgraveǮ3acirciquest

ɱ0˞acute1˟G-G

ȩȃ3ė˃ƟɊɇograveʗͿ ͷ|3LJŚ Ǫˤ93ˡˢɱƐ ɣɣəD7ɣƩʡ93ƈˬD7 3Ɛ ɚŚ3ͻ˓˔3ɴˡ `oQyjV3Oslash

Pysup2ń3ɯ]bn

3ũ˩ Non-infrastructure development subtotal

˫3Pysup2ń3aR

Znɯ3˫ 2ɶ3ʱ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

78

ʰƾˬOtilde OampM facilities

ʰƾȐyacute3˖1ƛ˞0

D7ǟˬKǝamp1ƈˬG

]bn

Ͷ3ƈˬ14aRZn3ˀ

ɥƀǘ3ʰƾgzo3

ɏȏ]bnD7ņĺĦ3ordfnj]bn $3reg Miscellaneous

˫3aRZnɯ]bn

1Ġ=H0$3regegrave3

]bn

3ĵĸƯDzʿ93˚Ugrave

ntilde3eumlőǓƱ Interest payment before operation

aRZnŐntilde1ǓƱ

ƛ˞10Geumlő3ʱͳ ż4ƈˬȠ3OumlD7Ͷ3Ͱ

ǓƱ3amp33Ńǘ4 1Έ2ƀatilde3yacuteŃǘ-G3Xj`y

mŐHGɥeacuteƀƄ1

4ntilde-ǓƱ]bnG reg3aRZnɯ]b

n3ũ˩ Sub-total other project development costs

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫frac14ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0

ľĜʱͳ-˘

aRZnƷ]bn3

ʱͳ Total project investment costs

˫ɯɶũ˩3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

q-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǑĐbZjEgraveͳK

Ϳ Decommisioning excl scrap value

ļʅKĠQOoyMK

ĵĸEǑĐG31˞G]

bn

QOoyMD7egrave3Py

ZʗͿ3˥iquestǑĐə

$3regegrave3ƛ˞0Ǖƃ˯ǥǮ3Acircƭ]b

n ĵĸ3ˇɓɛƩ93ĮƘ Returning the land to the natural state

ĵĸ3ɠɛĮƘ3amp3]bn aRZnřpoundamp1ɯɣ

bZjEgraveͳ Scrap value

ǑĐǨ3bZjǺǛ3łČ

EgraveOacute ʳʗaumleumlɥG4bZj

łČ-Gė˃Ɵ3GQOoyM

3ǺǛ ȜģǑĐ]bn Net decommissioning costs

˫ɶ3ʱͳ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

BL0+igraveeacute Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǨszligːǨmO

nKͿ Operational time full load hours excluding derate

szligːǨ4QOoyM

3ſĹƀɯoumlK$3

Śȉaeligouml-ampOacute-G

H4szligːǨ3Ĝ˩-F˩ɩɱ

D7˩ɩń3ʰƾʚɡ3amp3OcircțǨK

ĠszligːǨŅŚamp^P

n1GQOoyM3ɯouml

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QOoyMʎOslash

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Net operational timefull load hours

ǨszligːǨEmO

nKƊampǨ ȜģǨ3Ĝ˩KĠG0J(m

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ƀǘ3ǴaRZn]

bn3ʱͳKĮĔ0H50

E0Ϳ

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Ǵ Time horizon for cost

LCOE˩ʙ3ť0GǴ _OacuteKTHORNouml0ľĜ4myTn

ˬŚ1DFˀɥƀǘ1ˬŚG

79

calculations

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Ǵ Loan duration

ȽǴ3Ĝ˩ ͰD7eumlőǓƱKĠ

― źľeuml Loan - market interest rate

euml3Oacute43ư1D)

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fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

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euml3ƖEHG Oumleumlɲɞ Return on debt

Ǵ1ȢƀƖEHG

euml ȢƀƖEHGeuml

ƛ˞HGǷeumlɲɞź

ľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivideʙ

KͿ Required return on equity excl market volatility risk adder

QOoyM3ǷƷŞ

ȨGeumlɲɞ Ƿ1Geumlɲ3otildeĜ

źľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivide

ʙ Market volatility risk adder

ʕyenɱźľ1đdivideǷeumlɲɞ

KGdividebZKƵǍG

KɶɱampA3

źľ1GcurrenƦń3ŃuumlbZKʾƬ

Gamp1divideʙGotildeĜ

ƛ˞HGƷǷ3Ȝ

ģeumlɲɞ Net required return on investment equity

ɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZ

nƷŞ93ǷeumlɲɞǷƷ

ŞȨGźľŃuumlƟ3b

ZKĠͿ

Ƿeumlɲɞźľ3ŃuumlƟKʾƬG

ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKƵǍGamp mZ-ɥė ˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ƿ3otildeĜĸUcircǷ3ƯDz

ȖKͿ Equity share excl local equity ownership

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp1ƻaeligGǷ3otilde

Ĝ

ͶǓƾ˙ʹPyʚɡ˺

ʗ3]bnKamp1ƷGǷ3

ʱͳ

Ƿ3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Total equity share

ĸUcirc3Ƿ3ƯDzȖ0E71ʱ

Ʒ]bn ˺]bnK

amp1ƻaeligGǷ3otildeĜ3

Ĝ˩

ĸUcircD7ĸUcircsup2ń3ƷŞNjAEligamp

Ƿ3ʱͳ

Ouml3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Debt share

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

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aRZn3ʱ]bn 100EǷ3otildeĜKƊampOacuteͿ

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate- municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠǘOacute

4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ȝģʌɞ Net tax rate

ǕƃĸǞŵǕƃ3Ȱlaquoʌ

ɞ3Ĝ˩ -˘ʆǕƃźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

80

shy MQ+Q

oacute-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

˛ȐʿNjAEligGʰƾʚ

ɡ]bn Manufacturer-provided maintenance

eacuteƀƄG4$3Ɣ1divide]

bn0-˛ȐʿNjAEligG

ʰƾʚɡ]bn

3]bn4żQOoyM3ˬʹ

]bn1Ġ=HGampeacuteǴ4e1

0G4-G

atildebgjy1DG˩ɩɱ

ʰƾʚɡ]bn Scheduled maintenance by internal staff

aRZnƯDzʿ3bgjy

1DGŚǴɱ0QOoyM

3ʰƾʚɡ]bn

bgjy1DGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

ń^wbŋʢ External service contracts

reg3˻Ȑʿ1DGŚǴɱ0Q

OoyM3ʰƾʚɡ]b

n

˻brvbarȐʿDGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

]bn Operation costs

QOoyM3ɥ1ƛ˞

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H14ecirc˷ǥͿǘOacuteȥcurren

ɂ3]bnKĠ ɏȏ Inspections

Ͷɏȏ3amp˻ȐʿK

ˇʇ-A˫3^wb˻

Ȑʿ-A0ľĜͿ

gzo3Ľġ2~4ƀȢͿĦ3ƴ˗ɏȏͶ 1 ļampF 2 ƀȢ1 1 ǡͿKĠɏȏ3ǨȂ4kW |b

-ˬŚ ˩ɩń3Icircɡ Unscheduled repairs

˩ɩń3Icircɡʰƾʚɡ ˙ʹ3ǖŇȥɛȯ$3reg3ńį1DG

ʰƾijŚͿũ˩ OampM costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ OampM costs variable subtotal

˫3Ńuumlʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝͳ-˘ ʚɡ Administration

QOoyM3ʚɡ

D7ɴɽ3]bn ʬƈəˇuumlD7ɗǛͿʗKĠ

Igrave Insurance

QOoyM$33

bZD7$3Ɛ1OtildeG

amp1ǓƱƀIgraveǛ

uumlɤIgraveǏŝUgraveuacuteɍ˚UgraveD7ɢĿ

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Gegrave3Igrave

ʡʭǛ Grid charges

ʡʭ93ʡ0E71ɥKǓ

ǎG31ƛ˞HGƀǛ

_4HKş|b3]bn

G4SrY]bnTHORNouml

G-G ʡʭ3]bnijŚͿ Grid costs fixed

˫3ʡʭǛ

ʡʭ3]bnŃuumlŃuumlͿ Grid costs variable

˫3ʬ˺ʛ]bn

^Pn3 Site lease

QOoyMKˬʹampĵ

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G ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

aRZnşƀ

kWͿ1ļ+aRZnǓƱƀʌͳ

ͼ|b3ʌ4˫3Z`n-ƀ

șŃuuml30ŃǘTHORNoumlG

1ȲƧ-4ş|b3ʌKʆ

$3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG ȸouml Electricity consumption

ouml3ˇŹȸ ʡʭ3ĝǴD7ɯƯ3uumlʗ3amp

_4HEKş|bG4

SrY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ɢĿɂŚ˰Egraveʗ Environmental measurements evaluations etc

QOoyM3˴ė0E7

1KʰƾG31ƛ˞0ƀ

ɢĿɂŚ˰Egrave

_4HEKş|bG4Sr

Y]bnTHORNoumlG-

G

81

reg3ƀ]bnijŚͿũ

˩ Other annual costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚɢĿɂŚǛ

ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ Other annual costs variable subtotal

˫3oumlȸ]bn

ƀ]bnijŚͿ Annual costs fixed

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ƀ]bnŃuumlͿ Annual costs variable

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘

Ts_-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ƀźľđdivide]bn Annal market participation fee

ʕyenɱoumlźľ1đdivideGamp

3ƀ]bn źľɥʿʡʭɥʿ1ǓƱ

ʬ˺Ǚ]bn Balancing costs

ͶoumlɯKěǨ1oumlʡ

ʭ1DžʯGamp3]bnʱͳ

aeligoumlcurrenɂ1Gś3ŀccedil]

bn

kW]bn4ȜƉ0ʬ˺ǙźľKG43]bnouml3źľ

Egraveȉ1Ġ=HGampccedilG3İ

0ľĜAG_4HE3]bn

Kş|b3]bnG4S

rY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ŋʢ]bnĕƊǛʗͿ Contract costs (transaction fees etc)

ŋʢ3ʰƾ1ƛ˞0ƀǓƱͳ kWh-˘ĕƊǛ

reg3]bn3ʱͳ Subtotal other costs

źľđdivide]bnʬ˺Ǚ]b

nŋʢ]bn3Ĝ˩

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKşǦ1GĽ

Ō kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƟʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źľoumlEgraveȉ Market price electricity

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

ƀſĹźľoumlEgraveȉ kWh

źľ˯ǮEgraveȉ Market price certificates

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ3

ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kWhǕʘ1DFG4źľ|b-ˬŚHGľĜGǘOacute4ecirc

THORNoumlG FITĔTHORN Feed-in tariff revenue

FIT1DGĔTHORN ż4aR

Zn]bn3ǓƱ3amp3ŀ

ccedilǓƱŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞK

ʄIgraveG31Auml ouml3źľEgrave

ȉKĠľĜAG

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐKŐampƀƄ1

ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlHG

reg3ĔTHORN3ʱͳ Subtotal other revenues

˫3reg3ĔTHORN3Ĝ˩

Ccedil ― shyocircocirc

shyocirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ʌƊntildedž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as a before-tax credit

ʌƊntilde

3ʌdž1ťGntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊntilde

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGʌ|b3ntildeƱ˚

ugrave3otildeĜHĝ otildeĜaRZ

n3ʱͳoͿG4ˬOtildeşampF

3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ

82

|b3PdlOz4aRZn1

DGʌƊntilde1ɥHGƕ)aR

Zn1ťEgraveOacuteaRZn3eacute

ƀ3˹ʌͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3

ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜaRZnG

G4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3

ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ

4_Ƹ-Gʌdž4Ĵ

ʌ13gtɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ

|-40Ϳ ʌƊƔdž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave AringΆUgraveČͿ Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as an after-tax deduction (eg depreciation)

ʌƊƔ

3ʌdž1ļ+ntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊƔ

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGYacute˖ʌdžH

ĝ otildeĜaRZn3ʱͳoͿ

G4ˬOtildeşampF3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ|b3Pdl

Oz4aRZn1DGʌƊƔ1ɥ

HG3ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜa

RZnGG4aRZn

ƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-G

ˣmiddotʇKƾ4_Ƹ-G

ʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥHGƕ

)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront cash investment subsidy

aRZnszligiquest1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ aRZnƷ]bnʱͳ1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml-3Ƚė˃ ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKǁGamp mZ-ɥė˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

shyl Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

kW-ʆHGƀʌͳ ȢƀǓƱD7ƀșŃuumlGş

|b3ʌͳ FITĔTHORNAringΆɯouml|b3PdlOzͿ Feed-in tariff revenue (eg production based incentives)

FIT G4ɯouml|b3PdlOz1DGĔTHORN

ż4aRZn3]bnK

31˞ȨHGŀccedilǓƱ1

ŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞKdivideampOacute

ouml3źľEgraveȉKdivideGľĜA

G

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐɱɥKŐampƀƄ

1ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǨCcedilœǛiacuteƄKɥ

GĴoPkʗͿ4ƀ3ǘOacuteAring

$HƀK Ś0

AͿKTHORNoumlG FITǕʘǴ Feed-in tariff policy period

FIT G4ɯ˚ugraveǓƱJHGʱǨ

aRZn1ƦŚHGʪȽɱƕŎǴ

K0ʜı3Ǵɮ0H5 FIT3ǓƱ|Aɮ0)Gė˃Ɵ

83

GFIT ǕʘǴ3Ĝ˩OacuteK1THORNoumlG

ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž Production-based before-tax credits

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b30J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊntilde

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊntilde|

b-aRZn1ɥH

G

aRZn3ʌǓƱntilde1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGɯouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿƕ)aRZn1ťEgraveOacuteņaRZneacuteƀ3˹ʌ

ͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteK

ĖGćɜaRZnGG

4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDz

ucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gt

ɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40

Ϳ ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž3ǕʘǴ Production-based before-tax credit policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHGǴ

3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɯ|b3ʌƊƔdž Production-based after- tax deductions

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b0J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊƔ

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊƔ|

b-aRZn1ɥHG

aRZn3ʌǓƱƔ1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKĖGćɜaRZnGG4

aRZnƯDzʿĝƀƄ3ʌdžKDzucirc

1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥ

HGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ɣɤļɵ3džʌƊƔͿ

ǕʘǴ Production-based after- tax deductions policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHG

Ǵ3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power bonus

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKEumlGamp

3ĽŌ kWh

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƄʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWh

źľEgraveȉ˯Ǯ Market price certificates

źľG4Ǖƃ3Ǖʘ1D)

ˬŚHampQOoyM

3aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ

3ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kW_4ɮ0Gźľ-0J(ěʍ3źľEgraveȉ-Ϳłamp3˯

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divideUgraveČ Accelerated Depreciation

OtildeĦ3ͳK˺middot˩D

7ʌťʘUgraveČG˩ɩ ěƀƄ3UgraveČͳ4ɤ3ˀɥƀǘ3eacuteǴD

FBBƀ|b-eacuteǴƷʱͳ

3ͼˬŚG UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

3m-4_aRZn3

EgraveOacuteKUgraveČGƀƄ$3UgraveČɞKŚʻ

GșƀƄsup2ȢƀȟͳKUgraveČGǞȰK

ɥGĴ-4_UgraveČ˩ɩEgrave

ͳKdegɡȖ˖Auml1D)˟ʏG

dj

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

yacuteYj Financial gap

aRZn3˺1ƛ˞

HGyacuteYj ʱ]bn˺]bnͿEƛ˞

HGǷeumlɲɞ93Ʒ1ƛ˞0ĔTHORN

PdlOzKƊampOacute ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave Levelized electricity generation cost

QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘ

1QOoyM-ɣɤH

amp kWh3ɠķ3ǡſĹ]bn

szlig3]bnKĠƷaumlƷ

ʰƾͿĔTHORNPdlOz˺]

bnĹʗĀĎEgrave4otildeƊɞͶ3ˀɥƀ

ǘKɥ˩ʙ

• 表紙13
• 要旨13
• 目次13
• 第1章 7ヶ国の風力発電の財務コスト13
• 第2章 デンマーク13
• 第3章 ドイツ13
• 第4章 オランダ13
• 第5章 スペイン13
• 第6章 スウェーデン13
• 第7章 スイス13
• 第8章 米国13
• 付録A 変数および用語解説13

iv

ES-1 6CtNA LCOE2008Wl 3

frac34šiexclŊƻbrvbar

(LCOE) fplMWh VjMWh kWh

K=K 120 67 120 AhmO 94 131 94 V=R 85 118 85 K_=m 83 115 83

KgtpTm 67 93 67 Ŧfrac14 65 91 65

Tm`pE 61 85 61

Ɓƭ9aelig LCOE (ŊƻƻƬdivideƖGKUƤƚųugraveƕƖƭƐƥGKUfrac14amp3ʼn60AumlCcedil6yicircƟ5shyfrac14 LCOE acircƼĔ1Ccedil(yĘ76ŊƻƻƬ57(raquoĖƽıH=UƦoslashƽƙƊƈƃcedilampƗcedil6ƻUacuteAacuteĤơiexcl2ƽ

Ŋƻ^lJEUdivideƖiKEucircĊUacuteAacute1ƖĚŋăƖƭƐƥGKU$41CcedilAuml

8 LCOE ampacircƼ6ƽŊƻ^lJEUƤņampƗcedil6GKU(frac14amp3Ccedilʼn1357amp( LCOE 1CcedilacircƼ6ƤƚųugraveƕAgraveplusmnTpNƇƪamp(ijiumleacuteƃ6shyfrac14ư LCOE AumlampƱ6ľccedilŋƃcedilamp(Įƛĝş133+ĚAgraveplusmnĒfrac14zœŝş4ampƌyacute ĔaumlampLOCEƈţēŋ^lpPampťpoundampƜ-6)ƿĩƈňŢIacuteIWiA(ƿszlig

aacuteCdQIelpoacuteIJ(poundŪiexclĊIJ LCOE 9thornIacute6poundŪoacuteIJ(ĎŔƖƭƐƥĘưCdQIelpŰĐŋAumliexcl9icircIacuteampƖƭƐƥoacuteĬqľccedil9ƀ3qźŋ

aacuteŀ9Ʀ635poundŪƿĩƈňIWiAoacuteIJ(6[hbpNĆ9ĔOacuteƳampƌŭ

ŚszligampecircAEligśAEligĥŊƻLCOE9ETHďampĮƛ63amp6aringLCOEshyśƈţ(7ampņĊIJ2ģeuml9ĪŔampő6eacuteƃ5Įƛ133+Ƈƪ(ethƫampžė

Ƌij 3 ƀvāţƀŖ(ŶƋŷamp36ƝĹēkpU( 1fpl100ƈţ

v

v h

` iii

| 1 72NCtE 1

11 1 12 vu]k 1 13 CtO~FH 2 131 GKUƃū 132 copy=mMmSlt] 133 AringƧigrave 134 LCOEcTjƏĎ 135 cTjiquestĚŋGmM^U 136 LCOE FGƈţ 14 IDN6Ct 6 15 QK$4 s 6 16 JN$ZTLCOEIn4 6 17 LCOESNj 8 18 IDNm6Ct 11 19 9 LCOE]k 13 110 LECOEBXqj 13 111 14

| 2 $1+4 16

21 $1+4Ctf 16 211 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 212 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 22 $1+4 2008Wu13Ct) 19 221 ƶrƽŊƻ 222 ĴrƽŊƻ 223 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 224 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 23 $1+4Ct) 25

| 3 amp 28

31 ampCtf 28 311 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 312 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 32 ampu1363m6Ct) 30 321 ƶrƽŊƻ 322 ĴrƽŊƻ

vi

323 V=Rƶr^lJEUǀ2008THORNǁsectĺFpKGKUĮƛ 324 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 325 copy133+ăĂbBXLa 326 ƔDdQ^ 33 34

| 4 -1 36

41 -1Ctf 36 411 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 412 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 42 -1u13Ct) 37 421 ƶrƽŊƻ 422 ĴrƽŊƻ 43 -1Ct)McpY 39 431 AhmOƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ 432 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 433 copyăĂbBXLa 434 ƔDdQ^ 44 41

| 5 1 43

51 1Ctf 43 511 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 512 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 52 1 2008Wu13Ct) 46 521 ƶrƽŊƻ 522 ĴrƽŊƻ 523 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 524 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 525 ƔDdQ^ 53 1Ct) 50

| 6 4$1 52

61 4$1Ctf 52 611 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 612 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 62 4$1u13Ct) 53 621 ƶrƽŊƻ 622 ĴrƽŊƻ 623 KgtpTmƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ 624 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 625 ƔDdQ^ 63 4$1Ct) 57

| 7 60

71 Ctf 59

vii

711 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 712 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 72 u13Ct) 60 721 ƶrƽŊƻ 722 ĴrƽŊƻ 73 Ct)McpY

61

731 GKUĮƛ 732 copyăĂbBXLa 733 ƔDdQ^ 73 63

| 8 N 65

81 NCtf 65 811 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 812 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 82 N 2008Wu13Ct) 66 821 ƶrƽŊƻ 822 ĴrƽŊƻ 823 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 824 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 825 ƔDdQ^ 83 NCt) 73

A Rr 76

viii

L5

ordm 1-1 ƽŊƻGKU ordm 1-2 ƔDdQ^ī6copy=mMmSlt]amp36ŊƻGKUŐĭ ordm 1-3 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14ŊƻƻƬǀƓżĐưǁ9sup2űĞ ordm 1-4 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14divideƖGKU9sup2űĞ ordm 1-5 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14Ƥƚųugraveƕ9sup2űĞ ordm 1-6 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14ƖƭƐƥGKU9sup2űĞ ordm 1-7 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14Ĥntildeƃū9sup2űĞ ordm 1-8 shyfrac14xƃGKU[hbpN LCOEacircƼ ordm 2-1 Tm`pEƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 2-2 TmsectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 2-3 Tm`pEƢŨGKUGKUƨcTj ordm 2-4 Tm`pEcopyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 3-1 V=RTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 3-2 V=RƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 3-3 V=RƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 4-1 AhmOTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 4-2 AhmOsectĺFpKĮƛordm ordm 4-3 AhmOƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 5-1 K_=mTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 5-2 ƅĈƭKCpathornř ordm 5-3 UacuteAacuteA^Igmamp136ĔŮǀUacuteAacuteĠǂAgraveEgraveƭǁ ordm 5-4 ƻyenUacuteAacuteamp136ƽŊƻETHƬǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 5-5 YacuteČƻ^pjĠAumlŀTHORNYacutefrac34ǀ2003Dž2009THORNǁ ordm 5-6 2008THORNampƊŵ7ƽƙH=LƋ ordm 5-7 K_=m133+sectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 5-8 K_=mcopy133+ƽŊƻąŢ=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 6-1 KgtpTmTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 6-2 KgtpTmƽŊƻGKU ordm 6-3 KgtpTmƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 7-1 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 7-2 K=KƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ ordm 7-3 K=KƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 8-1 Ŧfrac14THORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 8-2 Ŧfrac14133+sectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 8-3 Ŧfrac14copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ

ix

5

ƀ ES-1 ƶrƽŊƻfrac14 LCOEǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-1 ƽŊƻ^lJEUƖĚdivideƖGKUƃū ƀ 1-2 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻoumlſŋ[hbpNǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-3 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻƔ[hbpNǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-4 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻ LCOE FGǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-5 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEUoumlſŋ[hbpN ƀ 1-6 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEUƔ[hbpN ƀ 1-7 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEU LCOE133+ FG ƀ 1-8 aacuteŀ LCOEĊIJĮƛ ƀ 2-1 Tm`pEƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (MW) ƀ 2-2 Tm`pEƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW) ƀ 2-3 ƓżĐưampiquest FIT9deg06Z]ƿlpNŏatildeŊƻħETHƬʼn6 4ƽƙŐNtildeŋ

ƀ 2-4 ƓżĐưampiquest FIT9deg0Z]ƿlpNŏatildeŊƻħETHƬʼn6 4ƽƙŐNtildeŋ ƀ 2-5 Tm`pEƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 2-6 Tm`pEƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 2-7 Tm`pEƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ƀ 2-8 2007THORN 2008THORNTm`pEamp136ƽŊƻ LCOE0 ƀ 3-1 V=RŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-2 V=RTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-3 V=RƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 3-4 V=RƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 3-5 V=RƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 3-6 V=RűĞ0 ƀ 4-1 AhmOŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-2 AhmOĪsup2THORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-3 AhmOƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 4-4 AhmOƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 4-5 AhmOƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 4-6 AhmOűĞ0 ƀ 5-1 K_=mŬŜƊŵƬ (GW) ƀ 5-2 K_=mTHORNưOgraveƬ (GW) ƀ 5-3 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 5-4 K_=mƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 5-5 K_=mƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 5-6 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEU0 ƀ 6-1 KgtpTmŬŜƊETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-2 KgtpTmTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-3 Lillgrunden^lJEU ƀ 6-4 KgtpTmƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 6-5 KgtpTmƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 6-6 KgtpTmƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

x

ƀ 6-7 KgtpTműĞ0

ƀ 7-1 K=KŬŜƊETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-2 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-3 ƖƭƐƥGKUƈţ

ƀ 7-4 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 7-5 K=KƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 7-6 K=KƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

ƀ 7-7 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEU0

ƀ 8-1 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-2 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-3 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 8-4 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 8-5 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]

ƀ 8-6 Ŧfrac14űĞ0

1

Aring 1Auml 7Ozuumljfrac14dividearingm-1

11

2009 ƀȚŵĜ (EU) 4Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşKǝamp1 10163 MW divideʟĴ-4 9994 MW Kdivideamp (EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)3 2009ƀ1GˬOtildeş3ŀdivide1DFͶoumlɯ4 EU-4ǰņ3ʟĴ-4ʖ 2frac143ǝamp0Ʌ0)G(EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)ɪɱ1AsectĀɎʥǃaeligethȿĀʂɗǛ3ŘszligIgraveBŘŚAEligʬ3ĪͲ)ampǘ3ɡɦ1DFͶoumlɯ3˞40)G szligɪ-ͶoumlɯɯKŮ-Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bnCcedilɓŝ10)Gė˃

ƟAGͶoumlɯ3ƷŞ4ͶoumlɯƯ3PygP]bn1aRZn3ɯ˩ɩ1ĕF

)ampǨɏEȣɱʄ0ʀ˾Kƾ)GH4ͶoumlɯɯaRZn3ˬOtilde]bnſĹͶKǣ

Ƞ-ʀG-GE-F=ampͶoumlɯ3Ńuumlˊ1Ū0ɗǛ]bnEsectĀɎ

ʥAǃaelig0E-G3D0ijDz3ɚƙG1AͶoumlɯ3]bn463Ĵ3

-AaRZn1=ampěĴņɮ0)FǷʃʐ-43ɏ1ɒɏKƎG

12 frac34frac12sup2

Ƿʃʐ-4ĴSrYȗͶoumlśǟąŚʖ 26ccedilʉmiddot (IEA Wind Task26)Ͷoumlɯ3]bn131ļ+ěĴ3bʃʐKɥ7 Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3ɸ3ĎįKDŽGđdivideĴ4mZoPkUhbPbQRmbPbʟĴ-G Ͷoumlɯ]bn3˟ʏF-4Ʒ]bnʰƾ˺]bnƀɯoumlɯoumlͿ

)ampǘŅ3Ȓƭ˞ʥK˰EgraveHE3]bn3ȵHaRZnǴszligiquest-ŃĀGKDŽGƛ

˞G3aRZn-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnK˷ǥȣGamp3˞0ɂŚćfrac14ĹʗĀɯ

ĎEgrave (LCOE) Kȏ˪ampLCOE 4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3PygP]bn3Ĝ˩OacuteKɠķ1otildeƊƀɯouml1ļ+ĹʗĀampOacute-GLCOE4ɮ0Gˤɏ1ʑ)ampěʍ3ǞȰBưȰKɥ˩ʙG-GǷĽġ-4HE3ˡɏD7Ni3(ș`pU˩ɩȰƄyacuteX

j`yccedilǿȰ3 2KɥG ǷĽġ1Gccedilǿ3ņccedilȤƷŞ3ˡɏEěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnK˰EgraveampA3-

GDFacirciquestɱ1˧5ǷĽġǮ3 LCOE ccedilǿʫȁ4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴatildeƷŞěɥampmǞȰKɥěˇ3aRZn3K˺GbrvbarAring13Ĵecirc3yacute]bnK˘ampA3-GɫƧ

4Ƿʃʐ1Gyacute]bn3ȣ4Ͷoumlɯ3ʇmiddotɱɥ0J(3SrY3eumlɥ1

DFʇmiddotƺG]bnͿK˰EgraveampA3-40-G Ͷoumlɯ3yacute]bn3˩ʙ-4ͶoumlɯaRZn1Gˬʹ˺1ƛ˞HGegrave

3Ǔaelig1GccedilǿʫȁK˘1G3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʣ]bn3˰Egrave1divideěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ

aRZn3ƯDzʿeumlɥ-GĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3PdlOzK˷ǥ˽Ĵ-ɣ G]bn˞ʥ3

KǥE1G ǷĽġǮ-4= LCOE KȒƭG]bn˞ʥKʞć1˷ǥș1ǷaRZn3-ɯHampb

jo`nm1˷ǥGěđdivideĴENjAEligHampmg1ļ+đɔbKŚʻ˽Ĵ1aacute

Gȣ3PnKǥE1GěĴ3ĎEgrave˞ʥKđɔbȣͶoumlɯ3 LCOE 3ŸɮKɣ GĎįKǥE1Gș3dZ`-4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEdegǯɱǞȰKʞć1˷ǥͶouml

ɯ3ĹʗĀĎEgraveK˩ʙGș1đɔb-Śʻamp]bn˞ʥ1ļ+LCOELJŚOacute3K˷ǥɥGǞȰ31D) LCOE ŃJ)GKś˯GǰƔ3ʒ-ěđdivideĴ3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3]bn˞ʥK=˷ǥGsup2ǷĽġǮ3ȑ˞-G

2

13 uumljfrac14divideAElignp[

131 -1UacuteIgrave

Ͷoumlɯ3]bn˞ʥ4ǷƷ]bnʰƾD7˺]bn-GHEě

1ěʍ3]bn˞ʥĠ=HGǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampIuml3]bn˞ʥ4Uograve A1ʆF-G ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ņͳ3ǷƷKƛ˞$3Ȓƭ˞ʥ4Ͷ-0ŅʍŅȓ-G

Ugrave 1-1 1ʆD1Ʒʱͳ3ʢ 75Ͷ3]bn-FȟF4˘1=ampD1ʡʭʡļʅˬʹ0E71ƈˬ1G]bn-GHE3]bn4oPkmZbPˏĴ33m

g1ļ+GǑĐ]bn4aRZnŐǨ1ʄIgrave3]bnKƎeacute3ǷƷ1ĠG

KʻyacutemacrGĴAG

Ugrave 1-1 uumljfrac14divideBL0+ccedilyenccedil-1UacuteIgrave

ʱ]bn1ĈGotildeĜͿ reg3]bn1żĈGotildeĜͿ ͶŶľɀͿ

ʡʭʡ ļʅ

ȥˬOtilde ĵĸ

yacute]bn ƈˬ

]^gn

68-84 2-10 1-9 1-9 1-5 1-5 1-5 1-3

ndashndashndash 35-45 20-25 10-15 5-10 5-10 5-10 5-10

ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

ʰƾ4Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥ-ż4IgraveʚɡD7ŚǴɱIgraveŗɏȏ^wbŋʢ

)ampijŚĠ=HGŃuuml1Ġ=HG34ˊ1˩ɩɱG4˩ɩń3IgraveŗɏȏBĦordfnj3]bnʗ

-GHE3]bn4ƀƄ1D)ɮ0GampaRZnǴK Xj`y3ȵHŚ

Gsup3Ś˟ʏFK˖ŅͶoumlɯaRZn-4ƀ3ɗǛ˞-Fƕ)

ʰƾƀ]bn3ņĄKĈG10G3oumlźľ-4oumlʡʭ^wb1macrɣ Gɑ

ucircouml˚Ugrave]bn03]bnͶoumlɯaRZn-ƛ˞10GľĜG LCOE3ņccedilKĈG3yacute]bn-GͶoumlɯaRZnƈˬ3ļɵ0GyacuteȒ3ʍ͵0E

71macrGOumlD7Ƿ3Ȓƭ˞ʥAĴ1D)˒ɮ0G=amp$H1ťǴƒ-Geumlɲ1

AOumlBǷ3ƷŞ1D)Ž4ż1ņE14ěĴ3ȰlaquoʌȒAͶoumlaRZn1macr

Gyacute]bnʱͳ1ƐG x 1-14Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3˟ʏF1Ġampěʍ3]bn˞ʥƷ]bnƀʰƾyacuteŃǘʗͿ

KʆampA3-GͶoumlɯaRZn3ǰʨɱɣɤə4ouml-GampLCOEKƀɯouml-ĹʗĀGƛ˞Gɯouml4Ͷ3əɡɱɚƙD7ɚŚ3aRZn^Pn3ͶɅ3ɚƙ1ŷęHG

132 s_N3N9A

ouml4ͶoumlɯaRZnƯDzʿłGĩĦ-oumlźľ4Ĵ1D)ɮ0G3aRZn4Ͷ

oumlɯ1G]bn1ɒɏKƎěoumlźľ1GĔTHORNPdlOzK=ampA3-Gɯ

1DGĔTHORN1divideěʍ3PdlOzKAuml)Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKʄś1ĮĔ-GD1GH

E3PdlOz14ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ(FIT)ɣɤ1Ɯ ampʌͳdžaumlɣė˃SrY˯ǮG4reg3VqcG

3

x 1-1 uumljfrac14divide-1 ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

133 icirc

Ͷoumlɯ1Gɶ3Ņ=žĀHEHE4ĔTHORNB]bn3˰Egrave1Ġ0

HE4ɯƴ˗3oacuteșɱƐ1GńƟG4ʇmiddotɱɥ-Gˊ1aumlɣė˃SrY3ƴ˗4

ƕǽĺɅ3ƴ˗1ȣńƟ3Ɛż1Ū0IEA3 ldquoRenewable Energy Costs and Benefits for Society (RECaBS)rdquo aRZn-4ǥƟ3ǞȰKɥƕǽĺɅaumlɣė˃SrYɅKȣɯ3]bnEacuteɲKLJŚG (RECaBs 2007)ReCABS3ǞȰ˼1DH53ccedilǿ14ș3 53ńƟĠ=HG

ȥNtildeŃuumlɁŜucircȁWbɚ1 CO2D7 CH4Ϳ reg3ņȥȩȃɅSOxNOxD7ʠőͿ ʡʭʡoumlPy93divide]bn oumlʬ˺ǙͶ3şZajnˮȲ 41DGȿͳʗͿ

ɗǛAEligʬ3ŘszligIgraveɗǛTHORN3ĴatildeɅ-3degɥ HE3ńƟ1divideͶoumlɯ4ɗǛ3ȸB$H1sup1ɗǛEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ŷęH0Ͷoumlɯƴ˗

93ƷbZ4ĀʂɗǛ1DGɯƴ˗3bZyMPɮ0GHEszlig3ɚƙ1DFͶoumlɯ

ƴ˗reg3ɯƴ˗3EgraveOacuteNjȊ1G˞0ɚƙɣ GǷʃʐ4$3ȣ˰EgraveK˱gtampA3-

40

134 LCOEGKaacute

UhSrYʃʐdg (ECN) AcircƭampXj`ym4ǷaRZn1G

ˮȲ 4 şZajn (capacity credit) ʡʭŘŚƄ1ƤƐK0ʜı-Ͷoumlɯ1D)ƕǽĺɅHʹnj

EHGKʆȣɞAring5 şZajn 303ľĜǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ 1 GW1ťƕǽĺɅK 03GWȿEG-GşZajn1G˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

4

LCOEyacuteYj (FG) 3˟ʏF3ļɵ0)G3 ECNm4otildeƊXj`ym-Ǝeacute4Uh1Gaumlɣė˃SrY3˚ugrave3ɯAEligʬĽŌK˩ʙGamp1AcircƭHampA3

-Gɠķ ECN43mKɥUhǕƃ1ěʍaumlɣė˃SrYƸ˂3ɣɤ]bnK3ʋƄ1ugrave˧GIEAWind Task26KɯŮ-đdivide˽Ĵ3]bnȒK˟ʏAGamp3mKIcircȜƼņͶoumlɯ3]bnKȄ˳ʧ1˩ʙ-Gkamp3mKȒƭ

G34ɯƯ^PcǨszligːǨˀɥƀǘƷ]bnʰƾaRZn3˺

3ɚƙ)ampmĀ3amp3vg0E71Ɓʜ0vg-GěĴD7==0ˠ

iacuteiquestiacute13mKɥ-$3ȗ˃ŅɥƟǔīHGAring5Xj`y

mKǔ˨ͶoumlɯaRZn3ěˠiacuteiquestiacute1ƕ==0ƴ˗ɱyacuteɱvg1ɥ-

GD1amp3D0Ȅ0m4Ʒ]bnʱͳ3˩ʙ3gt0Eěʍ3ɥ3ɚƙByacuteưȠ

0E71ĴQOoyM3PdlOzK˷ǥG-˞-G

135 GK|yenfrac12-N3B

Xj`ybjo`nKɥͶoumlɯ3]bnK˳ʧ1˩ʙG$3szligvgKUograve A1ʆ3bjo`nm4 6 3Z`n-ȒƭHǰeacute3 3 3Z`n4ɚŚ3Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3˩ʙ1ƛ˞0˳ʧƥĽKNjAEligGamp3A3-G ǰeacute3Z`n4ƀșŃuuml3013ŃǘKŚGA3-GH14aRZn3ɚƙƷ]b

nʱͳǑĐ]bnʱͳĎȲ2szligːǨ1ɔEampǨ]bn˩ʙ3˩ɩťǴĠ=HGƷ]b

nǑĐ]bn4ěʍ3Ȓƭ˞ʥ3ʱͳ˘-GH4ś3]bn3Ÿɮ3ŅĴȣ3

amp3ƥĽKNjAEligHG=amp3Z`n1DFPyŃuuml]bnŀK˷ǥGampͿOumleuml

ɲɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞ0E71OumlǷȣɞaRZn1macrGyacutebZKēǧGampͿ)

ampěʍ3yacuteŃǘKŚG-GE13Xj`ym4ĴBŵ3ȰlaquoʌKʾƬampA

3-G ƀșŃuuml13Z`n14ʰƾĸdegʡʭ]bn)ampƀijŚŃuuml-ȒƭHG

ěʍɶĠ=HFHEK˳ccedil͵ěĴ-ȣ-GD1G=amp-ȥǛBʧ

ȪŚ˞įŋʢ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnʗͿKŚʻG ʖ 33Z`nǕʘ13-4ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT)ʌͳdž$3reg3PdlOzKȏ˪G

3m3U`ȿʌ3EacuteɲKaRZn3Xj`y1ŚampFɑiacuteĎȲ31

ampFG-G3THORNoumlvgK$3ș3Z`n1AumlͶoumlɯaRZn3 LCOE Bɯ3yacuteYj (FG) KȪŚGTHORNouml―aeligouml13Z`n4$3ʫȁ3 LCOE FGK˘ampA3-˩ʙ-ɥampŃǘK=Gś3Xj`y3˩ʙ4aRZn3Xj`y

13D7LCOEXj`y13Z`n-˖

136 LCOE FGYacuteEgrave

LCOE FG4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEXj`yK˩ʙampʫȁ-GampĞɶ3ʌƊƔǷeumlɲɞKLCOE FG3otildeƊɞɥGraquo LCOE FG14ě3˩ʙ1ɮ0GXj`y3ȵHKĠGH1sup21ȑ˷G ż3ľĜLCOE3Ľġ14ƷǓaeligƀ]bnȿEgraveUgraveČD7ƸampotildeƊɞAumlJHGƕ)

3Ȃʩgtatilde1G LCOE 3˩ʙOacute4ƷǓaelig3ƾccedilotildeĜszligǴ3otildeƊʌƊƔXj`yʱͳKeȜģɠķEgraveOacute (NPV) G31ƛ˞0ɣɤCcedilœeumlɲŚʻHGLCOE3˩ʙ-4ɯG4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɚecirc1ɥHGPdlOzE3ĔTHORN3Xj`yKʾƬ0

ECN3 LCOE˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

ĎȲ2 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4ǑĐ]bnKaRZnƈʝǴ1ʄIgraveKĴʻyacutemacrGľĜ3gt3]b

nKĠamp ĎȲ3 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4szlig3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKɑiacute13sup3Śamp=Feumlɥė˃0szlig3ȿʌ3ơƣKřszlig1ĖEH

GD0Xj`yăccedil1œķG-G

5

H41ɠķ FG3˩ʙ-4Ͷoumlɯ1ijDz3ɯɱPdlOz3Xj`yfynYacute˖Ʒʌļɵ3ƷugraveƭʗͿKʾƬG3Śʻ1ļ+brvbarś FG1D)ěĴ3 LCOEɯ0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ɱPdlOz1DFśɠHampeumlɲ3K˘G

ECNm3 FG˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

˫3D1ʌƊƔ3ƀXj`y14ouml3łĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3˚ugraveƱƮD7P

dlOzƀʰƾȽeumlƢǓƱ0E71yacuteľ3ȿEgraveUgraveČeumlődž3ʌƊƔͳ

E3Xj`yĠ=HG x 1-24LCOEƖEHampĔTHORNoumlźľĔTHORNFITAEligʬĽŌʗͿPdlOzD7yacuteYj

3EcircKʆampA3-G3IJ1ʆD1FGOacuteȜ3ľĜ4aRZnɯʿ3 LCOEK31ƛ˞0ĔTHORNƖEH0)ampƧģ-F3ľĜ4 LCOE KG3ăccedil0ĔTHORNƖEHampKʆĨG

x 1minus2 aringmH7Bmacrs_N3N9AampgtKQ-1Agravedeg

ʌƊƔ3Xj`yt

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ ndash

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

FG =

1 ndash ʌɞ times ƀʰƾ t ndash ʌɞ times euml t + ʌyacute3ȿEgraveUgraveČ t

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ +

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

LCOE =

6

14 rkzoumlRuumljfrac14divide-1

șʛ-4 Ĵ3aRZn3ǎugraveKGĴatildeƷŞ1)3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKđdivideamp 7Ĵ3Ĵecirc1ʆH14 ECN3mǞȰ˼KɥG˞0Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3ŃǘKŅĴ-ȣG1DFěĴ3ccedilFͶoumlɯaRZn3|bP]bnǥʄ10Geumlɥ

ė˃0mgEHGampȳͶoumlɯ3]bn4˳ʆ0ĽġHamp]bnmg3

Ūǘ3^KĠG

15 vQ5otildeordm

3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnƟ˃0E71yacutemgszligiquest3ȜʄDzucircƟKaeligǽGF˯ǥD

ampmgfb4ŅʍŅȓ-FĽġHampmg34ĴD7mgfb1DFɮ0)G

Aring5ĽġHamp]bn3mg42008 ƀ3ͳ-˘ampɠķEgraveȉK˘G3ŚEgraveȉǥʄ-0brvbarAringAG=ampsup21ǀGvgA2008 ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlaRZnK˘amp3A3-Gś14 2008ƀntilde1ɯȲHǓƱJHampbrvbarAringKĠGė˃ƟGmgEHGampampɉķɱ0ɿɹKIcircȜG-0)ampE1 IEA Task264ěĴ3deg˘ɱ013aRZnK˘KƧIJampA3-GͶoumlɯ3ś3]bn4^PnaRZn1D)ɮ0G

ƕ)sup23mg4ěĴ3szligˊɱɛȯ˷ǥ3amp3gt1ʆampA3-3ɏ1ɫƧ-G

16 tzGKLCOErmicroQ1

Ͷoumlɯ3Ĵecirc3]bnļǷampaRZn-4đɔb13Ĥ8ͿȣHG

3đɔb4ěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3deg˘ɱ0Ȓƭ˞ʥK˘A3-ƴ˗ɱvgaRZn3ɚƙƟ

˃Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bnʰƾʗͿyacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞ

ǴĴ3ʌɞʗͿ3ǞĠ=HGđɔb-4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘKńG=ampͶoumlɯ

KǓǎGĕFʩgt4Ĵ1D)ɮ0GampͶoumlɯǕʘBPdlOzAĠ0ƕ)đɔ

b-4 LCOE3˩ʙʫȁ3gtK˘ʆG Ĵecirc3ƴ˗ɱvgKUgrave 1-21ʆĎȲ4đɔb-43ěvgKszlig3Ĵ1Ga

RZn3ˬOtildeş3divideſĹ˩ʙGđɔb3ƴ˗ɱvg3OacuteA3˘1ʆF

2008 ƀ3ˬOtildeşȣɱņ)ampbQRmʟĴ$HH 98MW85MWͿ-ƄĜņ0)G7 Ĵ- 2008 ƀ1śǟHampdeg˘ɱ0aRZnKŅŪ0FAēǧ-GD1đɔb3divide14Ĵatilde3ʱSrYş-40aRZn3ˬOtildeşKɥGđɔb3aRZ

nȒʝ14==0Ƹ˂G$3ƸĴecirc3 LCOE G4 FG ˩ʙ1ƐG40ɏKƿǐG34˞-GđɔbNjAEligG342008 ƀ3Ĵecirc3ʫȁKȣGamp3ˊɱ0ɏ10 Ugrave 1-3 4Ĵecirc3yacutevgKʆampA3-Gě3yacutevg1szlig3Ĵ3ʼnOacuteKđɔ

b3OacuteɥGYacute1ampD1đɔb3˩ʙOacuteĴecirc3 LCOE B FG 3ʫȁ1ƐG40

ECN m-4otildeƊɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞKɥGǷdivideſĹ]bn (WACC) A3˘1ʆGWACC 4˜ǘ3yacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞĴ3ʌɞͿKyacute]bnszligiquestK˷ǥGćɂŚļɆ1ĠG Ugrave 1-41ĴecircD7đɔb3 LCOE FG3ʫȁKʆ3ʫȁ142008ƀ3 LCOEyacuteYj

3˩ʙʫȁKĠG3ʫȁ4Ĵecirc3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnszligiquestK˘ampʆampA3-G3Ͷ

oumlɯaRZn-Aś3 LCOE4ľƯaRZn1D)ɮ0)G

ĎȲ4 Ugrave 1-33mĀ3sup3Ś3amp3THORNoumlmg43gt-ʆG1ɫƧraquo LCOE FG3ʫȁ4

ʟo3Ǟ-ʆG

7

Ugrave 1-2 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divideOslashfrac12JFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h b

P bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b Ͷ^Pc(MW) ĎȲ5 23 20 30 20 24 20 17 21

Ͷļǘ 7 5 5 15 41 6 50 34 szligːǨ 2695 2260 2200 2150 2600 1750 3066 2628 ƷĎȲ6(eurokW) 1250 1373 1325 1250 1591 1790 1377 1449 ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 00 15 00 00 16 00 00 06 reg3]bn

euroMWhͿ 3 0 10 3 0 0 0 1

ʰƾijŚͿ(euroMWh) 000 4633 3139 000 001 000 860 629

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 12 0 13 20 11 31 5 11

njʰƾʱͳ

(euroMWh) 12 21 28 20 11 31 7 13

đɔb divide 61 38 57 114 366 46 318 NA

Ugrave 1-3 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14dividearingmJFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h bP

bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 55 50 70 50 50 60 50 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 110 95 150 100 120 70 75 100 Oumlyacute3otildeĜͿ 80 70 80 80 87 70 0 80 Ƿ3otildeĜͿ 20 30 20 20 13 30 100 20 ǴƀͿ 13 13 15 15 20 20 15 15 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 250 298 255 300 280 210 389 280

WACCͿ 52 56 60 59 47 49 75 49

Ugrave 1-4 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divide LCOE FGyuml2008Ā

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

bPb 120 (167) oPk 5 (7) Uh 94 (131) ʟĴ ndash1 (ndash1) oPk 85 (118) bPb ndash1 (ndash1) bP 83 (115) Uh ndash3 (ndash4)

bQRm 67 (93) bP ndash3 (ndash4) ʟĴ 65 (91) mZ ndash6 (ndash8)

mZ 61 (85) bQRm ndash8 (ndash11) đɔb 68 (95) đɔb NA

Ugrave 1-41ʆampD1Ĵecirc3 LCOE4bPb3 120MWh167oMWhͿĎȲ7EmZ3 61MWh85oMWhͿ=-Gđɔb3 LCOE4 68MWh95oMWhͿLJŚGěĴ3 LCOE ɮ0)G34Ĵecirc3ɯoumlʰƾǓaeligƷ]bn˺ǞȰ31DGA3-Gș1ěĴ3 LCOE1HE3vgĒltƐKDŽG

ĎȲ5 DF˳Ͷoumlɯ]bnccedilǿ14gɷƑtzſĹͶ)amp˞0vgKĠSrYAElig

ʬ1Gǥʄ0sup3ŚKĠG10G1ʆampLJŚOacute4ǷǮ1ʆampsup2ń3ƴ˗BĴşǦ1ȣ-GD

1ș3ćʣ0shyȓ3gtKʆA3G ĎȲ6 Yacute1ampD1Ʒ]bnD7aRZnƈˬ4 2008ƀ3A3sup3ŚGś14Ʒ]bnͶ3

ɯȲʗͿ14 2008ƀsup2ntilde3ǘŒĠ=HGė˃ƟG ĎȲ7 ɐǯn 1o139-njʙ

8

17 LCOEzoacuteplusmnecirc

ŅĴccedilǿ-4ěĴ1G 43˞0]bnvg3 LCOE93ƐKDŽ)ampĴecirc1 LCOEKLJŚ63]bnvgKĴecirc3Oacute$3reg3vgKđɔb3Oacuteamp3ccedilǿ14

|bPɂŚļɆđɔb3vgOacuteͿȣampĴecirc3THORNoumlvg3ƐKegraveFamp

3ŅĴccedilǿ-ȏ˯amp˞0vg14ɯoumlƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnKĠ

ampș13ʫȁKszlig3Ĵ3-ȣamp AringěĴ3szligːǨ3 LCOE 93ƐKx 1-3 1ʆ3IJ4 3 3ǥʄ0˱bKȣ

ampA3-G=Ɍˎ3Ȍ[y4Yacute1Ugrave 1-4 -ʆampěĴ3 LCOE K˘A3-szligTHORNoumlvgKĴecirc1ʆGș1ʳ4đɔbKʆA3-|bP3 LCOEK 68MWhszligvgKđɔb3OacuteG=ampʲˎ3jn4ȼĜbKʆA3-szligːǨKĴecirc3Oacute

$3reg3vgKđɔb3OacuteG x 1-31-6 4$HHɯouml˫đɔͿƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnK˘G

Ĵecirc3 LCOEɌˎ3Ȍ[yͿđɔb3 LCOEʳͿ43IJ-AŚ˞0]bnvg4ěIJ-ɮ0)FHKV-ccedilFǦʆG

x 1-3 rmicroQ1tzfrac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀkwIumlsect

x 1-4 rmicroQ1tzccedil-1kwIumlsect

9

x 1-5 rmicroQ1tzigraveeacuteETHaeligkwIumlsect

x 1-6 rmicroQ1tzccedilntildeacirciacute-1kwIumlsect

ěĴ3˞0Ͷoumlɯ]bn3vg34sup23D1˷ǥ-GampH1E0Ϳ frac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀăszligːǨ3Ĵ1DG14==0aacuteD7Iumlecirc3˞įƐ

GAring5oPk-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ1D)aRZnɯ4ͶɅ3 Ć1ƹB

EHGmZ-4Ĵatilde3ǵɯ3^PnKɯGntilde1Ͷ3ʹˬ˩1D)Ǡœ3Ͷ

oumlɯ^Pn3ˬOtildeǭǝEumlHGľĜAF$3ʫȁĴatilde3eacuteǴ3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn3

2008ƀ1ˬOtildeǭǝ3ť0)GbPb-4ű3NZdbEHGamp2008ƀ1śǟHampɯaRZn3ǘ4ŚHampA310)GʟĴ14Uumlccedil1ˍō0ͶɅ

KDzGaRZn^PnǘŅGʳ93NZdbeumlɥė˃ɞEHGamp

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GǞbQRm-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ4Ƿʃʐ3reg3Ĵ4ĪͲ10)0Uh-4

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HGǞUh-4˚ugraveKszligːǨ3ʜıatildeGampDF]bn3ŘͶ

10

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ʰƾ4ƀŨTHORNHampņˠȕ0aRZn-4ſĹfrac120)GD-GʟĴ-4

YN~jZbzoG4ɯȗ3ĦKordfnjGǨǴǣG˯ƻAcedilEHF

ƕ)ĽġHGmg3ʰƾ4ũ˰EgraveHGė˃ƟGoPk-AOtildeĦ3ordfnj

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ZoPkUh-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿub`n1ļ+Ͷouml

ɯaRZn3K˺Goumlmiddotʇ-GľĜKż4aRZn$3A31D

)K˺GmZbQRm-4ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˊɱ1frac12

bZ3Ʒȗ˟0H$HaRZn33ȪŚ1ēǧHGʟĴsup2ń33Ĵ-

AaRZn3˺3Oumlȣɞ40)Fż4 60Έ87-G ʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn˺ǞȰ4(E5Aringńɱ-G2008 ƀ14ʟĴ3Ņ3aRZnż1ˇŹǷȣɞ55 100Ϳ-˺HaRZn1ļ+Ouml4lte-)ampH4Ǖƃ3yacute3˚ugraveiacuteƄ3amp-F3iacuteƄ1DFgjZb

SZPlO13ʀEHGSZPlOyMPpbȇƉɯ˖1DGǷ˺Ϳ1ɚĀHampƏƩ

ƞŀampgjZbSZPlOyMPpbUacuteYacuteHampampʟĴ-4regĴDFAǷ]bn

0)G0J(gjZbSZPlO4żOumlDFAͿ=ampʟĴ-4Ouml1D

G˺1D)aRZn3ɅKʄIgraveampb-4aRZn-40Ȱlaquo|-

3OumlK)GľĜ)amp =-3=x 1-31-61ʆamp 43˞0]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥD7ěĴ3 LCOEđɔ

b3 LCOEKx 1-71ʆ

11

x 1-7 rmicroQ1tzordfUacuteIgravekwIumlsect

x 1-8 4˞0]bnŃǘ3 LCOE 93ƐKE1ȣȏ˪Gamp1˞0]bnvgKĴecirc-40[1G3IJ-4ěĴ3]bnŃǘ3ƐD7đɔbȣampěĴ3 LCOE3ņKʆGȌ[y4ěĴ3 LCOE KŀdivideGOacuteKʆʲ3Ȍ[y4đɔbDFAěĴ3 LCOE Kfrac12GOacuteKʆ˞0]bnvgKLCOE đɔbDFŀdivideampʋƄȌ[yͿ3ņ1E1ʆGAring5ɯouml3ǰũŃǘ4bPbĽġampǘOacute-G

3Ĵ3ʰƾƷ]bnDFA LCOE KŀdivideG3ǰfrac12OacuteEǰOacute=-3Ĵecirc3THORNoumlvg3ʜıEɯoumlD7Ʒ]bn LCOE 1ǰAƐampJGH4ˊ1Đ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOEƨƄccedilǿˈG (IEA 2010 Cory and Schwabe 2009)ˉģȻ1ĽġHampʰƾ3ʜı4đɔbȣƷ]bn˺]bnDFA LCOE ŀdivide1ƐG3E ʰƾmg3ʄśƟeumlɥė˃Ɵƕ)THORNoumlvg3Ĵ1DG3ņLCOELJŚOacute3ȜʄƟKEHampA31ampė˃ƟGʰƾ1įGŸɮKȿEampE0Gccedilǿ

ƛ˞-GʾEHG

x 1-8 tzSUacute-1JFQ5 LCOEoslash

12

18 rkzacuteRuumljfrac14divide-1

ECN3m1DF-0ȳ1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯƯ3 LCOEKLJŚG-GraquoɠǨɏ-eumlɥ-GȳaRZn3mg4EHFɚ1Ĵecirc3 LCOE KLJŚG31ƛ˞0THORNoumlŃǘ3řszlig0mgƉGƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ1GĴecirc3 LCOE ȣ4˖)E$3đɔbAˬ0sup23Ugrave 1-5 D7 1-6 1ĽġHG]bn˺3mg3KʆɫƧmZ-4ʡʭ93ʡD7ȷƂz3ƛ˞ƟKʇmiddotɱɥGamp

aRZn3ɯȐʿHKƺ0-G3ccedilǿ-ɥampm4aR

Zn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏ1ʑ)ampA3-GampmZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF1ēǧ0m

Āccedilǿ-4Aumlɥ0)ampHE3ʡʭʡ]bnKĠG-mZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF4

ʢ 3000kW10Gx 1-71HE3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1˟ʏA)amp LCOEyacuteYjKʆ

Ugrave 1-5 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+fOslashfrac12JFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn aRZn3ɛȯ 2007ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF

ʓŶƀ 2007ƀ 2010ƀƔĄ ɚŚH ɯƯ^Pc(MW) 20 23 50

Ͷļǘ 60 90 12 szligːǨ 3350 3800 3700 Ʒ(eurokW) 3315 1883 3230

ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 0 0 0 reg3]bn(euroMWh) 11 0 0 ʰƾijŚͿ

(euroMWh) 149 0 123

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 0 24 0

njʰƾʱͳ(euroMWh) 44 24 33

ˀɥƀǘ 15 25 20

x 1-6 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+faringmJFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 45 65 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 120 112 150 OumlotildeĜͿ 50 26 70 ǷotildeĜͿ 50 74 30 ǴƀͿ 15 13 12 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 255 250 298

WACCͿ 79 92 77

Ugrave 1-7 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+f LCOEthornFG

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

Prinses Amalia 166 (231) oPkˊcurrenɂ NA oPkˊcurrenɂ 156 (217) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 6 (8) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 88 (122) Prinses Amalia 5 (7)

13

19 T LCOEYacuteEgravesup2

LCOE4==0ɶɱuumlȗD7˸ʿ3amp1˩ʙHGˊźȤǕʘȪŚʿƷŞaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿʗě3ɚŚ3qcKɄamp LCOE KeumlɥGamp) LCOE 1AumlJHGưȰ4ȓ-40LCOEK3ʋƄ˳LJŚGG43ʋƄ3sup3Śƛ˞4AumlɥG˩ʙǞȰ1D)==-FH LCOE 3ʫȁ1˒ƐG3ampecirc3 LCOE ˩ʙǞȰK=-3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECNmD7ǞȰťȣsup21˷ǥG Aring5ș˩ɩ`pU-4Ʒ]bn3ɠķOacuteD7ʇmiddotɱotildeƊɞKɥotildeFƊampƀ]bn3ſ

Ĺ1ļ+ćʣĀampdeg˘OacuteKɥ LCOE K˟ʏAGľĜG3Ni-4OumlǷȣɞOumlǷ]bnǴȰlaquoʌ)ampǥʄ0ɅʄIgraveǼacute3sup3Ś0H0$3degJF3ćʣ

0ǞȰ-4otildeƊɞLOacute3gtKɥF$H1D)yacuteưȠ3ɚƙKszlig˘GIEA 3Projected Costs of Generation Electricityrdquo (IEA2010) D7IEA World Energy Outlook 2009rdquo (IEA 2009) 43NiKɥFsup23Ɖ1DF LCOEK˩ʙG

3Ni-4IEA 4otildeƊɞKʇmiddotɱɅ]bn13˘G3]bn4ʇmiddotszligiquestɚŚ

3ƴ˗1ƷG1ƺ]bnK˘ (IEA2010)3ʇmiddotɱ˟ĸEIEA4otildeƊɞ 5Έ10KɥF5KȣɱŘŚɱ0ɢĿ1GOumlyacuteŰ˖bZ3frac12ƷŞeumlɥ-Gɞ1310K˒ʪȽɱƴ˗ɱbZD7EgraveȉbZ1ɷGƷŞ3Ʒ]bn13G (IEA2010)DFćʣĀampș˩ɩ`pU1DFTHORNoumlvg3ǘKǰũ1˳ʧƄ1D)ěʍ3ɯĺ3 LCOE KşǦ1ȣG-G H41 ɯȐʿ4 ECNm3D0Ƅ0Xj`ymKAuml)ɚŚ3aRZn

ě3 LCOE0E71ȜģɠķEgraveOacuteatildeĔɲɞȽǴ)ampreg3yacuteƿȔK˰EgraveG3m1˜ǘ3ƯDzʿ3ǥʄ0˺3ntildeNjǼacuteʌ3Ɛ$3reg3ĔTHORNG4]bn3ƐKĠ

GľĜAGǨ143mKɥegrave3ɉķɱ0]bn3ȵHK˰EgraveampFparaȐ3ɚŚ3

aRZn93ƷKė˃1GeumlɲƖEHGD0SrYEgraveȉKȪŚampFG(Harper et al 2007)3˳ʧ0ǞȰKɥampľĜƷ]bnBƀʪ-0ǘŅ3˞į LCOE 1ƐG10GaRZnƈˬ3ǰʨɱ0ȪŚȖ4ƷŞ1GampͶoumlɯ3ʮʯɱ0ˬʹKė˃1G]bn3OacuteKɡ˥

G14ƷŞ3ˡɏKɡ˥G˞-G Aring3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECN m4ƾccedilƷŞ1ƯŚ3Ƿeumlɲɞ (ROE) KIgrave˯aR

ZnȢ1 LCOEK˰EgraveGamp3Ƅ0Xj`ym-GYacute1ampD1ECN3Xj`ymKE1˳ʧ0A31G-ǷD7OumleumlőKƾ˺ȒKǥʄ1˘-

G=ampͶoumlɯ3]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏE˘-aRZnKGamp

3ĔTHORN3ȵH-ɸȡ0H50E0Ͷoumlɯ]bnK˟ʏG-G

110 LCOEYacuteEgraveocircicedilplusmnecirc

Ugrave 1-8 4otildeƊɞ LCOE ǞȰKȣampA3-GXj`yccedilǿ3ćʣ0ǞȰƄ0ǞȰ3ǞKɥ3otildeƊɞ1 LCOE K˟ʏFreg3egrave3]bnvgKě3đɔb1ɔEŚampE1HEʿ3ǞȰ1D)đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿKɣ GotildeƊɞK˘G

t=1Tsum Ʒ t + ʰƾ t + ɗǛ t + Ɏʥ]bn t + ǑĐ t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

LCOE =

t=1Tsum ɯouml t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

Ϳ

14

ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3ˡɏELdeg˘ɱ0otildeƊɞ4Ȥ3aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿG4ƷŞ3ˡɏ1ʑ

)ampotildeƊɞ3OacuteDFfrac120GtimesğGIEA2010 1DH5ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3otildeƊɞfrac120)Gɡɦ4bZŪǘ3ȤƷŞ-40ǘŅ3IumllaquoƷŞ1ccedilǗHGampɷGbZ˺]bn

Ū00Gamp-G$H1sup1ʇmiddotɱˡɏE3 LCOE 3˟ʏFAȤƷŞ3˟ʏFDFAfrac120Gtimesğ1G

Ugrave 1-8 icedil LCOEsup2plusmnecirc

ǞȰͽˡɏ ˡɏ ˺]

bn3Ʋ ɥ m

otildeƊɞ3

ʜı

otildeƊɞ3ʜı

1G LCOE

đɔb3

LCOEKɣ GotildeƊɞ

ș`pU ˩ɩ3ćʣ˩ʙ

agraveɱʇmiddotɱ ƷŞ3ˡɏ

otildeƊɞ1 ĠG IEA2010 5Έ10

53Έ70MWh

IEA3ǞȰͿ

95 IEA3ǞȰͿ

ƄXj`

yccedilǿ

aRZn ɯbrvbarȐʿG

4ȤƷŞ ǥʄ1Śʻ ECN2008 75Έ15

(ROE) 64Έ76

MWh 10

ECN3ǞȰͿ

reg3szlig3Ńǘ1đɔb3ntildeNjǼacuteKɥ Ƿccedilǿ-ĽġHamp ROE3ʜı1ļ+

Ugrave 1-8 1ʆD1(E3Ni-ALotildeƊɞ3 LCOE Oacute1˒ƐG95otildeƊɞ4ʇmiddot3ˡɏK˘ʞɬ0˩ʙȰKɥđɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿK˩ʙG31ƛ˞0Oacute-Gƕ)Ƿʃʐ3đdivide˽ĴĽġampmg1ļ+0E3otildeƊɞ4ǰņOacute1+4-F

IEA-43ʜıK 5Έ10GH4ʞɬĀampʇmiddotɱ˩ɩǞȰKɥƄXj`yưȰ3ordmOacuteKǥE1ampA3-G 1frac12Ǟ3otildeƊɞNjȊHampŽ3ǰAfrac12OacuteͿˊƷŞ3bK˘amp1ɥEHGƕ)

LCOEK˩ʙG14=ampͶoumlɯ3 LCOEKreg3Ʌ3 LCOEȣG14aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏG4DFƁoumlʡʭ|3ˡɏ3(E1ʑ)GKǥʄ1GėȘ-G

otildeƊɞ3Ƹ4$3ˡɏ1ťƜGdz=LCOEK˘ěʍ3ƉKɥGľĜ4ʑˆGˡɏotildeƊɞ$3reg3vg3OacuteKǥʄ1˥Gƛ˞HG

111 Iumlatilde

IEAWind Task263ʫȁELCOEĴ1D)ņɮ0)GJG33ƄĜ4ɯoumlƷɥ˺)ampě]bn3Ɛ1DGA3HGcurrenƦFĴŞ3 LCOE3Ÿɮ1ǰAƐamp34Ƿɱ0ͶȯG4Ͷ3ƴ˗shyȓ1ļ+currenɂHGɯouml-G=amp

ǷɱǓaeligD7ͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ǽacuteņɮ0GEźľoumlAͶoumlɯ3]bnszligiquest

1˒ƐGE1ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾAěĴ-˒ɮ0FH LCOE 1ņ1Ɛamp 63ɂŚļɆ-SrY3]bnszligˊK˘ LCOE 3Ɵ4ĴBɶɱ˸ʿ$3reg3eumlɥʿ3

-ćʣ0ȣ-GD1ƝJHGLCOE3ěʍ3˩ʙ3ˡɏE3D10HampKȜʄ1ɡ˥Gƛ˞GLCOE4ɪaacute-Aordfnjė˃0˩ʙ-A0IɚŚ3qc1ɥHGDzɲ-Eacuteeuml0k-Gƕ)ȣD7$3ʫȁ3˥14ɫƧGdz=

rOtildemiddot

Cory and Schwabe 2010 ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financial Variablesrdquo httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2009) ldquoThe Economics of Wind Energy A Report by the European Wind

15

Energy Associationrdquo March 2009 Available at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentspublicationsreportsEconomics_of _Wind_Main_Report_FINAL-lrpdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2010) ldquoWind in Power 2009 European Statisticsrdquo The European Wind Energy Association February 2010 Accessed at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentsstatistics100401_General_Stats_20 09pdf

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review and Comparative Analysisrdquo Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 Accessed at httpeetdlblgoveaempreports63434pdf

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2006) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2006rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2006weo2006pdf

IEA (2008) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2008rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2008weo2008pdf

IEA (2009) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2009rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgWbookshopaddaspxid=388

IEA (2010) ldquoProjected Costs of Generating Electricityrdquo 2010 Edition Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgpublicationsfree_new_DescaspPUBS_ID=2207

RECaBs (2007) ldquoRECaBs Interactive Renewable Energy Calculatorrdquo Renewable Energy Calculator Accessed August 2010 at httpwwwrecabsorg

Wiser R Bolinger M (2010) ldquo2009 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy August 2010 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs2009_wind_technologies_market_reportpdf

16

Aring 2Auml NDQ+

21 NDQ+uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ȑ˞0E71]bn3ɚƙKG-

4 2008 ƀ3D7ȳͶoumlɯƴ˗1GĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1ɒɏKƎG

211 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

2008ƀǶ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ĝ˩ 3179MW 2756MWȳ 423MWͿ-H4 2007ƀǶ3ˬOtildeş1ťʢ 1252000ƀ3ˬOtildeşDFA 32ŀdivideG2001ƀE 2008ƀ=-1ŀdivideampˬOtildeş3ʢĄǘ4ȳͶoumlɯ1DGA3-G2008 ƀ1ȳ-ƈˬ3ȳQOoyM4 3F(64 2009ƀ1řƭA64 2010ƀʈ1ŐGcurrenŚ-GˮȲ 5 x 2-1 1ʆD1ŨTHORN3Ƅ4Ǵ15EņJG2001ƀE 2003ƀ1

ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 725MW ŀdivideamp2004 ƀE 2007 ƀ=-4 8MW ŀdivideamp10H4 2003 ƀ1śǟHampaRZn3ǕɱǓǎ˩ɩņŽ1ȿͳHampʫȁ-GHK˚amp1 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampǝamp0ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFͶ3ƈˬǝamp1ȲɶHG10)amp2008ƀ3 FITŨTHORNƔ2010ƀ 7DZǶ=-1Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 280MWŀdivideG (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ1D)mZ3ʱoumlȸ3ʢ 20AEligʬHG

x 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

ˮȲ 5 Roslashdsand IIȳͶoumlɯƯ4 2010ƀ 8DZ1ŐG

17

mZ4ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ƀșɶȔKŚ0EU 3˞Ȩ1DH5mZ4 2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯ-ʱSrYȸ3 30Kamp3˩ɩKʘŚ0H50E0EU-4szlig3divideɳĴ13aumlɣė˃SrY3ɶȔOacuteKƭGamp3˖uuml˩ɩ3AcircƭKʻyacutemacrFm

Z4 2010ƀ 6DZ1Ĵ3˖uuml˩ɩKɯ˘G3˩ɩ-42020ƀ=-1ˬOtildeşKʢ 4 GW$H1D)Ͷoumlɯ4 11000 GWh10GcurrenƦHG=ampʱş3 3ccedil3 1D7ouml3ʢ 50Kȳ1ˬʹGͶEƖGcurrenƦHG (Kemin 2010)(0gt12009ƀ3ɯouml4ʢ 6700 MWh-G2010 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3currenɂ4ěȚŵdivideɳĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010) ʁǴɶȔ2008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MW3divide0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ˬ

Otildeş 350 MW3ǝˬŚEHG3ɶȔOacute3Ąccedil4Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ1D)ƭA3-$H1D)ʦʏş4 175 MWŀdivideG10GĸǞ3˩ɩƎŬ42012ƀ=-1 350MW1divideş 150 MWKdivideGamp3˩ɩKˠŚ0H50E0 ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MWKdivideGʁǴɶȔ433ņˠȕ0ȳͶoumlɯƯ0J( Horns

Rev II209 MW2009ƀ 9DZŐͿRoslashdsand II207 MW2010ƀʈʓŶcurrenŚͿAnholt400 MW2012ƀ12DZʓŶcurrenŚͿ1DFƭHG˟gt-G

Ugrave 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

1761 2358 2464 2697 2708 2716 2720 2728 2717 2756 2985 2621

ȳ 11 50 50 210 423 423 423 423 423 423 856 1339

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 2-2 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

176 1 597 106 183 12 8 4 8 ndash11 39 ndash38 ndash135

ȳ 11 39 0 210 223 0 0 0 0 0 100 ndash14

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

212 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1iacuteŚHampaumlɣė˃SrYȰ1DFͶoumlɯaRZn3ǝamp0ĽiacuteƄŨTHORNHampǝamp03ͶoumlɯaRZnD7UoN13ȳaRZnĎȲ8-4HAszligːǨ

22000Ǩ1igraveG=-bjnźľEgraveȉ1divide 025mZZrkW0034kW ĎȲ9 0047okWͿ3ugraveƭNjAEligHGĎȲ10szligːǨ˫3Ǩ1igraveampƔ4źľEgraveȉKĖĕG10

G Ͷ1ť4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥƀǘ3Ǵ ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3˚ugraveƀ 0023mZ

ZrkW00037kW 0005okWͿ˚ugraveHG

ĎȲ8 UoNaRZn134ȳͶoumlɯƯ3THORNǸư4ecirc1ƈˬHGȳͶoumlɯƯ3aRZn

ŚʻHG13ȳͶoumlɯƯUoNɧ˻db1DFƈˬHG ĎȲ9 17353mZZr ĎȲ10 ɠ˖3Egraveȉ˚ugraveiacuteƄ4ͶoumlɯaRZn93ugraveƭK 1 kWampF 010mZZr0013Ϳamp

[1degJ)ŨTHORNHampA3-G

18

ˊɱ1mZ-4ͶszligːǨ- 22000Ǩ3ɯK˖147ƀE 10ƀGAring5 3 MWͶKˬʹGH5FIT4ș3D1ȪŚHGĎȲ11

3 MWͶszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 3000 kWh

3000 kWh times 22000 = 66 GWh FITʬ˺Ǚ˚ugrave43 MWͶ 66 GWhɯG=-3ǴǓƱJHG3Oacute4ș3D10G

(66 GWh times 025Zr) + (66 GWh times 0023Zr) = 18064200Zr

Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4ʽǹĀampͶKǑĐGǝˠ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1A

ɥHG3ͳ4ǑĐHampˬOtildeş3 2ETHKɣɤGamp3szligːǨ 12000Ǩ1ť 008mZZrkW001kW 00139okWͿ-GAring5 225 kW3ͶKTHORNǝˠ3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn1D)ǑĐGľĜˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugraveK˩ʙGsup23D10G

225 kW times 2ļszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 450 kWh

450 kWh times 12000 = 54 GW

ǑĐamp 225 kWͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4

54 GWh times 008Zr = 432000Zr 3˚ugraveɥHG34450 kWǵɄ3ͶKǑĐGľĜ1EHG3˚ugrave3ơƣKĖGamp

3ǝˠaRZn-ǑĐGͶ3ǘ1iacuteˬEHGJ-403˚ugraveɥHG34

450 kWǵɄ3ͶK˩ 175 MWKǑĐGľĜ1EHG szligːǨ1ļ+ FIT-4Ś3 kWh3ɯǨ-40ˊ1tzgɷƑņͶD

FAņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶ93ƷUacuteHGAring5 3 MW 3ɯȗ3szligːǨampFɯouml (kWh) 415 MWͶ3 2ETH-ƕ)ĖĕG˚ugrave3ͳAETH10G ș1ʆUgrave 2-3D7 2-44FITͶoumlaRZn1GͶ3Ƹ1ĒltƐKʆampA3-3

Aring4ś3aRZn1ļ+G

Ugrave 2-3 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITuh AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave[]psup312

ɯȗ3

ˠȕ

MWͿ

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ ouml

MWhͿ

Ͷ 1ļampF3aRZn]bn

(DKK)

oumlłͳ (DKK)

ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 223 098 30 90 90 7497 23430 5250 224 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 223 098 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 227 100

(Nielsen et al 2010)

ĎȲ11 3Aring4reg3Ĵ3ʒ14Ġ=H0ampmZZr-ĽġG ĎȲ12 ĝ

19

Ugrave 2-4 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITu AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave]

ɯȗ

^Pc(MW)

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ

ouml (MWh)

Ͷ 1ļampF3aR

Zn]bn

(DKK)

ouml łͳ(DKK)

˚ugrave

(DKK) ʱĔTHORN

(DKK) ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 1650 6610 298 100 30 90 90 7497 2343 5250 1650 6900 295 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 1650 8920 273 092 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 990 5220 281 094

(Nielsen et al 2010)

˫3AringEņĺ3gg1ƷGDFAņĺ3ɯȗ1ƷGǞszligːǨ1ļ+

FIT 3ơƣKĖBJGUgrave 2-3 1ʆHGD1ǰAʪȽucircɞ3ˍͶ4ņĺgKOtildeamp 18 MW3ȣɱũĺ3Ͷ-GH4szlig3Ͷ-Ś3ɯouml kWhKļ1ampľĜ3 FIT1AƎ4=GUgrave 2-4 EszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT E3divideɱĔTHORNƖEHB34gɷƑũtzfrac12 3 MW3ɯȗ-Fȣɱũĺ3ɯȗ4 3frac141ˑ(GJG

FIT3ļɆszligːǨKɥGjn4currenˠŚHampˬOtildeşKƭGamp1ˬʹHGͶ3ǘŪ00G-G=ampH1DFgɷƑtz3OacuteKGjnAŪ00G

HE 2 3ʹ˩ɩKʘŚaRZnKĸUcirc-ĖTHORNHAE1ĪͲ0GľĜGszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT 4mZ3ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ʁǴɱɶȔOacute)ampˬOtildeş1ļ+ǕʘɱɶȔOacuteƭHGD1Gamp3A3-G szligːǨK FIT 3ļɆG3mjn4˚ugrave1DFźľ3ȝgtɣ GampǰAʪȽɱucircɞ

3ˍͶƛAaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ1)ǰAͺoumlɱ0gw-400G-G

$3ampǰʨɱ14Ͷoumlɯreg3ɅDFA10F20mZ-43ƏƉ3 FIT AumlJHGampɯoumlKļɆampɶȔOacuteƭ1G]bn0Gʫȁ0G

22 NDQ+ 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-4mZ1G 2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKG-ɥampmg42008 ƀ1˩ɩG4śǟHampaRZn3ſĹOacute1ļ+A3-GͶ93Ʒ]bn4^Pn3Ǽacute1DFŚ-40mZ-4ɯ]bnȣɱŚGD-GˬOtildeş MWampF3Ʒ]bn14ǰņ- 503GeacuteƀƄ3ɯouml MWh ampFƷ]bn3Ńuumlɞ4 15ǵɄ-G

221 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para mZ3ͶoumlɯaRZ-n4ˊ1Ū0Ͷǘ3Έ12ļͿ3ͶʺKɥG˩ɩW

PoP-4Ū0A 3ļ3ͶKɷʳɛG4ʵB0ŔKNJD1=ʹGGH4ͶK 1 ļccedilǗɱ1ʹGˡˢɱĉƋ0GE-GmZ14ņˠȕQOoyM3AringGbPBʟĴņ0A3-40ǰņˠȕ3b4Ͷ 20ļKˬʹGʱş 63 MWͿ

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹŚȉş4 19 MW-F$3gɷƑ4 80 mtz4 72 m-G2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ-ǰAˊɱ034 23 MW3Ͷ-F$3tz4 80 mgɷƑ4 93 m-G

(b) BL0+Ouml mZ3Ͷğ4ˊ1˝ğ-GampͶ3^PnɡƦɱ034āȷȮų10G

20

ˊɱ1ͶɅ4ǾŪ00)GȮųĸŻ$3Ģ-4ƀſĹͶ 7 msKGH4 2 MWͶtz 80 mͿ1ļ1ťszligːǨʢ 2500Ǩ1ɸƎG(Danish Energy Agency 2010)2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3 2009ƀƄ3szligːǨ4ſĹ 2639Ǩ-)amp2009ƀ3mZ3ͶɅ4żƀ3 88-2008 ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3szligːǨ4szligˀɥƀǘſĹ-ʢ 3000 Ǩ10GcurrenƦHGɫƧszligːǨ3LJŚOacute4mZszligiquest3ͶɅl`1GA3-402008ƀ1ˬʹH2009ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+˩ʙampA3-G

(c) ccedil-1 2008ƀƄ3deg˘ɱ0aRZnƷ]bn141100kW1529okWͿE 1300kW1807

okWͿ=-F$3ſĹ4 1250 kW1738 okWͿ-GEgraveȉ4 2008 ƀ1xZ1ampƔ2009ƀ 2010ƀ1ņŽ1frac12GɚƙG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ1GͶ3ʰƾ4IgraveIcircɡ^wbŋʢĸdegĵĸʚɡ3 4 ɶ-ȒƭH

GHE3ɶ$HHͶoumlɯƯ3ɣȹʰƾ3ʢ 25KĈG2008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlɯaRZn1currenƦHGɣȹʰƾ412MWh17oMWhͿ-G (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m4ƀ|b3Ouml 80-K˺GaRZnKɥGmZ1GȤ

ƯDz3Ͷ4ˊ1ƎƅOgraveŋʢ1DFK˺Gegrave3ĔTHORNKƎƅOgraveŋʢ1Ʒ FͶ

3ƯDzʿ43ļKɷDžeumlɥG-0Ʒ1ťGeumlɊ93ǓaeligǓƱ4szligOumlȖʿ3Ƴ˴

ʻyacutemacrEHG mZ3ɡƦɱ0aRZn4100Ouml-K˺GaRZn-Gż3aRZ

n-4Ouml1DG˺3otildeĜʢ 800)GͶoumlɯaRZn1ťGOgraveTHORNĮĔǴĖTHORNHė˃034 15ƀsup2atilde-G

2008 ƀƄ3ƎƅOgraveŋʢ3eumlő4ʢ 5ͼ-H4 5 ƀijŚHGͶoumlɯaRZn4reg3ƷȗɱbrvbarȐȣȵuumlƟ˟0HGampˊ1eumlőfrac120)GͶoumlɯaRZ

n3bZ˞įKʚɡ-Gegrave0ưȠGEͶ93Ʒ4bZfrac12˟0HG mZ1GǝˠaRZn3ľĜʣɤɞ4ż 9Έ11-G3amp 5~73bZ

Nė˃10G3EA1983ƀE 2002ƀ=-3mZ˯icircȇƉĕƊƯ3 OMX203bZNſĹ 72)amp3ȣͶoumlɯaRZn3bZȣɱfrac12JGĎȲ13 (Saabye 2003)

(f) s_N3N9A Ͷ30ĔTHORNɅ4NordPool źľK 3oumlłFIT Ə-3Egraveȉ˚ugrave-Gʬ˺

ǙbrvbarȐʿ3Ͷ3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢK 5ƀ=-ƇG-GĎȲ14HE3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢ4 Nord Pool3Yacuteəźľ1Ɇ ʴʫHG

(g) Q54Q1 mg4 Economy of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ1

ļ+A3-G

222 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para 2008 ƀ1mZ-ŐampȳaRZn40HA˩ɩG4ƈˬȠ1GȳQ

OoyMɯ4ˊ1Ǖƃ3˴ėKƖEHG10G3˴ė4THORNǸʋKEHG

A3-szligːǨ 50000Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml kWhampF3THORNǸ1ťǰfrac12Egraveȉ3A31˴ė

ĎȲ13 Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark ĎȲ14 10ƀijŚEgraveȉKNjAEligGǝˠ3ɯAɰľG

21

aeligHG10GHornz Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand I amp II4THORNǸʋKʪśɠampaRZn-GAnholt3ǝȳQOoyM3THORNǸǴ4 2010ƀ 6DZ1ʨpoundG$3ˬOtildeş4 400 MW-2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-1KŐG10G UoN13ǞƉĎȲ15QOoyMA˴ėHGUoNǞƉQOoyM3ˬʹlaquo

ƖEHH5Ͷ1Aĝ PdlOz[ɥHG10Gɠķ=-1 2 3UoNǞƉ3QOoyMƈˬHG

(b) ccedil-1 mZ1GȳQOoyMɯbrvbarȐʿ3Ʒ]bn4˴ėiacute3THORNǸʋKʪampʢ 200 MW3

ņˠȕQOoyM1ťʢ 2700Έ3000kW3753Έ4170okWͿ-G ȳQOoyMKĴatilde3oumlʡʭȳŃĶˬOtilde1ʡGamp3]bn4mZ-4Ĵƺ

GampaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷʱͳŪ00)GɢĿƐ˰Egravebrvbarntilde3ȷƂĸ˰Egrave3]

bnAĴƺG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳQOoyM3ʰƾ4ʭ˩mgEHF=ampȳQOoyMɥʪǬʳ

ƞthornKƭGamp1ʄśƟmZ3ņˠȕȳQOoyM3ɣȹʰƾ4ĸ

Ļ3ɛȯ1DF 18MWh25oMWhͿE 20MWh28oMWhͿ=-G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mZ3ņˠȕQOoyM3˺4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ȪʙǴszligiquest1ɀ)˖JH

GsmOjZƷ˖E3OgraveTHORN˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM1eumlɥHGraquoH4

aRZn93˺Ə-˖JHGJ-40Ϳ˴ ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4ż 50ƍ3Ƿȣɞ-˺HG mZ3oumlmiddotʇ3Ƿ]bn4ʢ 112ͼ Ouml]bn4 4555˩ʙHG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) s_N3N9A ˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml3ijŚEgraveȉKĖĕ)

GijŚEgraveȉ4THORNǸdb-ȪŚHGTHORNǸEgraveȉ4˺ǙHampƿȔ-40szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ĔTHORN Nord PooloumlĕƊ-3ł-ƖEHampƔ1ȪŚHGHorns Rev II3ˑǸEgraveȉ4 0069kWh0096okWhͿRoslashdsand II4 0085kWh0118o kWhͿ-GźľEgraveȉ1ťGEgraveȉ˚ugrave4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿTHORNǸEgraveȉ1Ɯ NjAEligGźľEgraveȉTHORNǸEgraveȉDFľĜQOoyM

Eʡʭɥʿ1ŸͳKǓƱJ250E0 ˴ėiacute-0G4UoN13ǞƉ3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 22000 Ǩ1G

=- 0034kWh0047okWhͿD7Ͷeumlɥ-Greg3˚ugraveKĖĕG

(f) Q54Q1 Horns Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand II3ƈˬ]bnʱͳ1Gmg4eumlɥė˃0agraveɱƥĽmZ3ȳ

QOoyMɯ3ŦŞD7ȳQOoyMƯDzʿ0E71ȳQOoyM3˺

ʿ93ˁĕF˺ȆE1THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙEƖampA3-G

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacute3ȑ˞-G

ĎȲ15 UoN13aRZn4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3THORNǸʋKʪ1˖JHGȳƈˬaRZnŚ

ʻHG3 23QOoyM1divide13ȳɯƯUoNɧ˻db1D)ƈˬHG

22

Ugrave 2-5 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ16

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ17 ȳ

2008ƀĎȲ18 ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 23 23 23 Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 3 91 90 ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2700 4300 3865

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 25 25 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1250 2844 3000

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash (1738) (3953) (4170) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 12 (17) 20 (28) 18 (25) $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 3 (4) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆ Economics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010

Ugrave 2-6 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 50 55 45 Ƿeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 110 112 112 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 80 45 26 Ƿ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 20 66 74

WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 52 88 95 Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 13 10 13 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 25 25 25

FXn $US 139 139 139 FXn DKK ndashndashndash 7353 ndashndashndash 7353

ǛΆEconomics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aeligIacuteɥļ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ

Ugrave 2-7 NDQ+uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 447 (621) 28 (39) 447 (621) źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 37 (51) 70 (97) 85 (118) FITǕʘǴ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 22000 50000 50000 ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

LVRT ˮȲ 6ĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ǛΆNielsen et al 2010 Danish Energy Agency 2008 Danish Energy Agency 2009 ĎȲ16 2007ƀ14mZ-ǝamp1ƈˬHampͶ40)amp ĎȲ17 2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ȳ1Ͷ4ƈˬH0)ampȳQOoyM 3ƈˬG4˩ɩȠ1)amp

$3( 24Ǖƃ3˴ė˩ɩ1ļ+A3-ȟF64UoN13aRZn-)ampHorns Rev II3ǰʨɱ0Ʒ3ȪŚ4 2007ƀ10Hampamp3ǘŒ4 Horns Rev II3LJŚ]bn1ļ+GRoslashdsand II3ƷȪŚ4 2008ƀ10H$Hĝƀ3]bn3Ȉƻ0)G

ĎȲ18 -ɥampAring42008ƀ1ƈˬŋʢʴʫHamp Roslashdsand II3THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙG ˮȲ 6 LVRT (Low Voltage Ride Through) Ķɾfrac12Ǩ1AͶ0ͶoumlɯƯ3KʮʯʡʭŘŚƄKʰƾGȗ˃

23

223 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc 2008ƀ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ93ƷmgKɥ LCOEK˩ʙAring 1Auml1ʆampđɔb3

LCOEȣampđɔb4Wind Task263szligđdivideĴ3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn-G đɔb3 6 Ńǘ3ƐKmZ3brvbarAringȣěŃǘmZ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOE 1Ɛ

GKǥE1ampđɔbmZ3brvbarAringKȣampʫȁKx 2-2 1ʆmZ3ſĹɱaRZn3 LCOE42008ƀ14 61MWh85oMWhͿ-H4đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿDFA 7MWh10oMWhͿfrac12)amp

x 2-2 NDQ+rmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup319

(b) BL0+dj đɔb3aRZn3aeligouml4szligːǨ 2600ǨKBBĮ)ampǞ 2008ƀ1Őamp

mZ3aRZn3 2009ƀ3ſĹɯouml4szligːǨ 2700ǨKBBĮ)ampH4 2009ƀ3ͶȯƤͶoumlɯ3ɯoumlAringƀ3 88ͼ10)ampamp-G3ɏKʾƬG2008ƀƄ3ſĹɱaRZn3ƀszligːǨ4ʢ 3000Ǩ-H1DFaRZn3ʪȽƟ=FLCOEʢ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿfrac12amp10GmZ3brvbarAring3szligːǨđɔbȣǤH5GLCOE4ʢ 1MWh1oMWhͿfrac12G

(c) Ntildeccedil-1 2008ƀ1GmZ3Ʒ]bn4đɔbDFAʢ 200kW278okWͿfrac12m

Z3aRZn]bn 15frac120)amp34mZ3ʡʭʡ]bnKƺG3ʡʭɥʿ-Gamp-G ʡʭɥʿ4ĖɏE3ʡ]bnKǓƱ3]bn14ŃƯBŃĶĬ3]bnĠ=HG3

aRZn3ƯDzʿ4ͶEĖɏ=-3]bnKǓƱA3SNʹ˩ɩˠiuml1GͶS

N˟0HGľĜ$3SN3ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿĖɏ=-ʡ-GD1ʡʭKƼƌ0H50E0

3]bn4ʡʭɥʿƺG3ˠiacute1DFaRZn]bnszligiquestKņŽ1ȿE-

GHKx 2-31ʆ đɔbDFAƷ]bnfrac120)G˞į4reg1ƈˬ^Pn3ĸɡɱǼacuteegrave0ĸ

Ucirc1ƍouml0Ͷ˛ɤȐD7ʪŢ0aRZnɯœķGʹ˩ɩɢĿƐ˰Egrave1

GͶ3Ȱˠiacuteăccedil1ǙOtildeHGǀEHG

ĎȲ19 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4ĭǂcopyTHORN3ampđɔběĴ LCOE3Ÿ3

Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

24

x 2-3 NDQ+eumlEuml-1-1iumleGK

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mZ3˺]bn4đɔbDFAͳ-GmZ3aRZn-ƛ˞H

GǷeumlɲɞ4 110ͼđɔb-4 100Ϳ-ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ouml3ſĹeumlɞ4đɔbȣGOuml1DG˺3otildeĜĝʋƄ-G mZ-4Ͷ3ȵuumlƟͶoumlɯaRZn3ucircɞɱ0bZranĩĦźľ-eumlɥ

-GampͶ3˺1GbZ3|frac12˟0HGmZ3aR

Zn3Oumleumlő1˘HGmZ-4Ƿ]bn0)G34oumlźľ1GEgraveȉbZ

1ǩHGʄɞamp-GH4 FIT 1D)ȽKIgrave˯GDFźľEgraveȉK˚)Gamp-FFITKŨTHORNGreg3Ĵ-AltAringń0ĝ ɛȯ10)GmZ14yacute]bnKGė˃Ɵ3Gfynʗ1eumlɥ-GǓǎbX4œķ0 ˺]bn1D)mZ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFAʢ 3 MWh4 oMWhͿ0)

G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ3ʰƾ4Ńuuml133gt˘ʆHG2009ƀD7 2010ƀ3yumlƽɱʃʐ (Nelson

et al 2010) 1DH52008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶ3ʰƾ4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥǴszligiquest- 12MWh17oMWhͿ10Gʰƾ1D)mZ3aRZn3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 1MWh1oMWhͿfrac120)G

(f) 13T-1 mZ1Greg3]bn14ʬ˺Ǚ]bnGmZ14 3 oMWh4 oMWhͿ3

ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3ugraveƭiacuteƄF3ͳ4ś3Ͷ3ʬ˺Ǚ]bn1ʗƦŚHGreg3]bn

4đɔbȣ LCOE1LƐ0

(g) uumljfrac14divideWampgtKQCcedil mZ3ľĜͶoumlɯsup2ń3SrYǕʘ4ȰlaquoʌD7˹ʌƯƖ3eumlőǓƱ3ȿͳ1GǕ

ʘ-GmZ4đɔbDFAȰlaquoʌɞfrac12ƕ)˹ʌƯƖEǓƱeumlőKņŽ1ȿͳG

-G=ampͶoumlɯaRZn3OumlǷȣɞ0)GampmZ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFA 1MWh1oMWhͿfrac12 ˩ʙ-4ȿEgraveUgraveČ1GmZ3ˠiumlKēǧ0mZ-4ͶKĠŶȐˬOtilde3EgraveOacute

$3ȟAacuteEgraveOacute3ǰņ 25=-ƀ1ȿEgraveUgraveČHH1DFͶoumlɯsup2ń3SrYǕʘ3]bn4ʳƏɱ1frac12G3frac12ɞ4˩ʙ0

224 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj˩ʙ1DFmZ3ĔTHORNŃǘKͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘȣ

GyacuteYj4=ĔTHORNAͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOzAʾƬ1˩ʙampș1ĔTHORNŃǘ3gt

KĠyacuteYjKauml˩ʙǰƔ1ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘKĠampOacuteKauml7˩ʙamp

3Ɉŀʋ1DFǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘ1ťGĔTHORN3ɸťɱEgraveOacuteKǥE1amp x 2-4 4ĔTHORNŃǘKǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘȣampA3-G=ampHEaacute1mZ3

LCOE K3D1ȒƭGKʆG61 MWh85 oMWhͿ3(ʢ 43 MWh

25

60oMWhͿKĔTHORNɅoumlłͿ-24MWh33oMWhͿKaRZn3ˀɥǴ3FIT˚ugraveƏ-3PdlOz-ȣɞ-˧5mZ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 2KĔTHORN3Ȓƭ˞ʥ-ȟF3 3ccedil3 1K FIT-10G

x 2-4 2008NDQ+s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilthornN3N9Apsup320

mZ3mccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ampFʢ ndash6MWh ndash8oMWhͿ-GH4ſĹmZ3ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿƷŞͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯƷ3yacute˞acuteKɄamp31

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23 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+

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26

Ugrave 2-8 2007 2008NDQ+uumljfrac14divide LCOEpsup321

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave

(LCOE) euroMWh

($MWh) ndashndashndash 61 (85)

70 (97)

81 (113)

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) 67

(93) 79

(110)

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj (FG)

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(ndash8) 3

(4) 2

(3)

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rOtildemiddot

Danish Wind Industry Association httpwindpowerorgenknowledgestatisticsthe_danish_markethtml September 2010 (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)

Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2007 2008 (Danish Energy Agency 2008) Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2008 2009 (Danish Energy Agency 2009)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Ministry of Climate and Energy National handlingsplan for vedvarende energi i Danmark 2010 (In English National Action

ĎȲ21 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampĔɲʱͳͶoumlɯǕʘͽPdlO

zD7yacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜAG

27

Plan for RE in Denmark) (Kemin 2010)

Nielsen et al Economy of Wind Turbines 2010 EUDP (Nielsen et al 2010) (Original title Vindmoslashllers Oslashkonomi)

Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark (Saabye 2003)

28

Aring 3Auml lt8

31 lt8uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

311 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

oPk1GͶoumlɯɯ4 1990ƀdegeacuteͰ1ŐHamp$Hsup2ǽͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4 239 GWsup210)ampƀŨTHORNş4 2002ƀ1 32 GW1ampƔJ1ȿŪampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4 2012ƀ=-1Ĝ˩- 306 GW 1ǤG˟=HG2012 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3Ĵecircaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010)

2009ƀȳQOoyM3ʖ 1Ě0)amp Alpha VentusʓŶampH1DFȳ3ɯŧǽŐ=GA3ǴƒHGoPkǕƃ4 2015ƀǶ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʢ 25 GW1GɶȔKɯ˘G

x 3Ă1 lt8uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

2000 ƀoPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4Ĵatildeʱɯouml3 16KĈsup2ǽ3otildeĜ4ņŽ1Ǥ8ƀƔ14 620)GcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3ŀdivideoPkǕƃ1DGɺSrY3ĕFʩgtKʾƬG3otildeĜ4notƔAǤKʯGcurrenƦHGUgrave 3-1 4oPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ĐD7ŧǽ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 3-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀşdivideKʆampA3-G

29

Ugrave 3-1 lt8IacuteAtildeTHORNOacuteeth (GW)

ˬOtilde

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2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

44 61 88 120 146 166 184 206 222 239 306 358

ȳ 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 100

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 3-2 lt8oacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

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2020currenƦ

44 17 27 32 26 20 18 22 17 17 14 03

ȳ 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 04 17

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

312 s_CcedilN3N9A

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ampSrY4ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFłHG FIT 4 2 3Ƞfrac12ͳ3ļǷǛǞƉͳ3ĽŌǞƉͿ-ȒƭHGotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ɥǴ

4aRZn^Pn3Ɵ1ŷęHGͶ3ʍ͵ecirc1ƀɯouml3đɔOacuteȪ=)ampđɔ^Pn1

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(b) EEG2004 Ͷoumlɯ3ļǷǛ4 55MWh76oMWhͿotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 87MWh121oMWhͿ

HampEEG20043Ȃʩgtatilde-4(E3ǛAƀ 2frac120Fǝamp1ɯHG^Pn3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ɥǴ4˫3shyʩgt1ļ+ȪŚHGǠœ^PnKˬOtildeǭǝGaRZn-4ś3

ɯoumlđɔ^Pn3ɯouml3 150KĮGD13Ǵ4 060ͼ1ʮʯHG ȳͶoumlɯ3ļǷĕEgraveȉ4 62MWh86oMWhͿotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 91MWh127oMWhͿ

Hampȳɯ3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4˫3 EEG3shyʩgt1ļ+ȪŚHamp

(c) EEG2009 2009 ƀ3 EEG -4Ͷoumlɯ3ļǷĕǛ 502 MWh698 oMWhͿotildeŀĕEgraveȉ 92

ĎȲ22 oPk3đɔ^Pn4ǷĽġǮ-ɥampđɔb133-401ȲƧ

30

MWh128oMWhͿ1ǔ˨Hamp(E3ĕͳAQOoyM3ƈˬƀEƀɞ 1-frac12ƕ) 2009 ƀ3ƈˬaRZnĖĕGotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 92 MWh128 oMWhͿ10G2010ƀ3ƈˬaRZn-4 91MWh126oMWhͿ10GǠœ^PnˬOtildeǭǝaRZn-H5E1 5MWh5oMWhͿ3otildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideʙHGͶoumlʡʭ3^nAring5Ģȱǘ˺ǙͿ-GľĜ42014ƀ=-1ˬʹHGǝˠaRZnĝ 5MWh7oMWhͿ3ĽotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ť0GͶ 2010ƀ=-1ǰĀHampľĜǠœ3aRZn1ťG3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 7MWh10oMWhͿ1ŀdivideG ȳQOoyM14 35 MWh49 oMWhͿ3ļǷĕEgraveȉɥHGȳQOoyM

3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 130MWh181oMWhͿ-H 12ƀǓƱJHG2016ƀDFntilde1ƈˬHampaRZn-H5E1 2 MWh3 oMWhͿ3otildeŀĕEgraveȉǓƱJHG10GotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ǴƇ4 EEG3ˊɱ0shyʩgt1Ɇ G

32 lt8VUgravefrac12oumlRPacuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+

321 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

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ōͶȯ3^Pn1ʑĸGaRZn-G3^Pn3szligːǨ4 2260ǨʋƄ10GcurrenƦHG

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aeligouml-)amp2007ƀ 2008ƀ1oPk-QOoyMƈˬ1ampĸĻ4ȣɱŪ0$3ampͶ3ǘŪ0ũˠȕ3QOoyMŅǘƈˬHG10)amp2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ˬ ʹHampǰ

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SNȣͶȯoslash)GampoPk3đɔSN3 903Ͷȯ3ľƯKaRZn^Pn1L-G

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4ŚȉaeligoumlͶ3gɷƑtz0E71Ͷ3ˊɱ0ˬ˩]dnŚȉaeligouml

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(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ14Ͷ3˛Ȑʿ$3reg3ʖʿ^wbNjAEligȐʿ3Igraveŗʚɡ]bnńŦŞ1DGŚǴɱ

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31

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ĔTHORN4SrY3 FITD7GǛEƖEHG2007ƀ1ƈˬHampaRZn3ĽŌ4 819

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(f) Q54Q1 mg4 EEG (2004) DEWI Magazine Nos 32 (2008) and 34 (2009) D7 Deutsche WindGuard GmbH ZSW3

amp1Acircƭamp EEG(2008)3Ɔț1GʉŕɱĽġǮEƖampȰlaquoʌ3Oacute4 Destatis (2009)1ļ+

322 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

sup23ƥĽ42008ƀsup21ƈˬHGcurrenŚ3ȳQOoyM1ļ+A3-G

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ʡ]bn4Ġ=H0

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(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȳ3aRZn3ƷŞ143ľĜDFAeumlɲɞƛ˞10Gȳ3Ƿeumlɲɞ12ͿA

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iquest-G4ub`n1DF˺G0Ϳė˃ƟAG

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ɱĽġǮ1ļ+

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32

Ugrave 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

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ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA 20 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1259 (1750) 1373 (1908) NA 3230 (4490)

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 4571 (635) 4633 (644) NA 123 (171) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

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ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

Ugrave 3-4 lt8uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

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ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 95 95 NA 120 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 70 70 NA 70

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 30 30 NA 30 WACC ͼ 56 56 NA 68

Ǵ ƀ 13 13 NA 15 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 298 298 NA 298

FXn $US 139 139 NA 139

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard Destatis

Ugrave 3-5 lt8uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 79 (110) 78 (108) NA 84 (117) FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA 20

ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ

ƀ NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 16 16 NA 16 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

323 lt8oumlRBL0+yuml2008ĀrmicroQ1-1plusmnecirc

x 3-2EoPk3 LCOE85MWh 118oMWhͿǷĽġǮ-Yacute1ampđɔbDFA˒ccedilG$3ɡɦKsup21IJʆG

33

x 3-2 lt8uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup323

324 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

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(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 oPk3aRZnđɔb3Ÿɮ4ʢ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-H4˺Ȓ

31įG

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325 s_F(=2E

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯ14EEG1ļ+ FITɥHGoPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn EEG2004G4 EEG20093-ƲJHGF$Hsup2ń3ĔTHORN4˟=H0E1oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎGamp3reg3PdlOzKŨTHORNG4ƧIJHE$3currenƦA0

ĎȲ23 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4ĭǂcopyTHORN3ampđɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3

Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

34

x 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup324

326 aringmH7B

x 3-31ʆampD15MWh7oMWhͿ3yacuteYjɣ FH4szligːǨʰƾ3Ÿɮ1DGA3-G

33

-LoPk3QOoyM3Aring4Śȉaeligouml 2MW3Ͷ 5ļ-ȒƭHGaRZn3szligːǨ42260ǨƦŚG3m3ƦŚ1ļ+LCOE485MWh118oMWhͿLJŚHampNjAEligHamp FIT1DFaRZnɯǨȐʿ3yacuteYjampFʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ10GǛ3Oacute4 EEG-ˠŚHG

Ugrave 3-6 lt8Iumlsectpsup325

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

85 (118) NA 135

(188) ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

79 (110) NA 84

(117)

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

5 (7) NA 46

(64)

rOtildemiddot

BMU Leitszenarion 2009 ndash Bundesministerium fuumlr Umwelt Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit Langfristszenarien und Strategien fuumlr den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland ndash Leitszenario 2009 (2009)

Destatis Statistisches Bundesamt wwwdestatisde (last access December 2009) ĎȲ24 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAG ĎȲ25 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

35

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 32 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122007 (2008)

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 34 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122008 (2009)

Deutsche WindGuard Deutsche WindGuard GmbH on behalf o Zentrum fuumlr Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Wuumlrttemberg (ZSW) Vorbereitung und Begleitung bei der Erstellung eines Erfahrungsberichtes gemaumlszlig sect 20 EEG (2008)

EEG 2004 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich (2004)

EEG 2009 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich und zur Aumlnderung damit zusammenhaumlngender Vorschriften (2008)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

36

Aring 4Auml JN6

41 JN6uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

411 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬʹş42000ƀ3 447 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 2121 MW1ŀdivide3( 228 MWȳͶoumlɯ3ş0)GͶoumlɯ1DGƀ3ɯouml42000ƀ3 08 TWhE 2008ƀ3 43 TWh1ŀdivideGǞ2008ƀ3Uh3ʱȸouml4 119 TWh-)ampͶoumlɯ3ʁǴɶȔ42008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 2000 MWdivideG-G3ɶȔ3ƭ1DFˬʹȽgtG4ƈˬ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʱş4ʢ 4000 MW10G2009ƀ14950 MW3ȳͶoumlɯ3THORNǸŐHGȳͶoumlɯ3ɶȔOacute42020 ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 6000 MW 1G-Graquo EU 3aumlɣė˃SrYƿplusmn3ʻyacuteKɄGamp34 2020ƀ=-3ɶȔOacute45178 MW-G x 4-1 D7Ugrave 4-1 4-2 4D7ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71ěƀƄ3

ʁǴɱD7ǴɱɶȔOacute3currenɂ-Gszlig3şmg4ěƀǶ3mg-Gɏ1ɫƧ-GU

h4ǠœͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ14ɶȔOacuteKŚ0

x 4-1 JN6uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 and Rijksoverheid 2010

2000ƀ3ƀŨTHORNş4ĝƀǶ3ʦʏˬOtildeşĝ ş1ˬŚHampUgrave 4-21ʆȜģƀŨTHORNş4

ǑĐampͶoumlɯaRZn3ȜģˬOtildeşKĠL-GUgrave 4-2 1ʆamp2009 ƀE 2012 ƀ=- 2012ƀE 2020ƀ=-3ěǴ3ȜģƀŨTHORNş4ě3Ǵ3ſĹƀŨTHORNşKʆGsup23˘1ʆˬOtildeş4UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ1ļ+ˬOtildeş3currenɂ-GRijksoverheid 2010Ϳ

37

Ugrave 4-1 JN6IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0447 0485 0672 0905 1075 1224 1453 1641 1921 2727 6000

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0108 0228 0228 5178

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 andRijksoverheid 2010

Ugrave 4-2 JN6regwoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0038 0038 0187 0233 0170 0149 0229 0188 0280 0202 0409

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0 0 0 0619

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010Rijksoverheid 2010

412 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1ǝamp0 FIT ĽŌ˩ɩ-G SDE ˮȲ 7ŨTHORNHamp3 SDE bX3-Ͷoumlɯ3ś3ɯ]bn1˟ĜotildeŀĕEgraveȉoumlčEgraveȉ1divideǓƱJHGE1aumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗93Ʒ

1fynʌiacuteUacuteLjʹKɥGjnSDEotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3Ȃʩgtatilde-ȏ˪HG

42 JN6VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-Uh3deg˘ɱ0D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZnK˷ǥG

421 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh4 2003ƀ1szligːǨ|b-ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎG FITiacuteƄKŨTHORNamp2006ƀ=-4

szligːǨ 18000 Ǩ=-3aRZn1ťǰ- 10 ƀ FIT NjAEligHamp2008 ƀE3 FIT 1DGǓǎ4szligːǨ 2200 Ǩsup23aRZn1ť˖JHG10)ampſĹszligːǨ4ƀʢ2000Ǩ-$3ˊɱ0ʜı4ƀ 16002800Ǩ-G Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4FITǓǎ3˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZnKʆGĎȲ263

aRZn-4$3Pq`NlOz3ņĄǕɱ1ś˖ė˃0]bn3|KˬŚGdeg˘ɱ0

34 15 MW3ũˠȕQOoyM-ͶoumlɯaRZn3ņĄ 23 MW3ͶgɷƑ 90 mtz 60Έ80 mͿKAuml)G3ĸĻ-4iacuteˬEHFHE3ĸĻ-4tz 4060 m3 450800 kWͶˊɱ-G

(b) ccedil-1 aRZn3deg˘ɱ0Ʒ]bn4 1000kW1390okWͿE 1600kW2224okWͿ

=-Fˊ1Ʒ]bnszligːǨAŅ0)G

ˮȲ 7 SDE (stimulering duurzame energie) UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrYD7ɖAtildeʬ1GǓǎbX ĎȲ26 đɔaRZn134Ƿccedilǿ-ɥampđɔb13KƿA3-401ȲƧ

38

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3atildeˮ4ɯouml1D)ŃuumlGA3 9Έ12 kWh13Έ17 okWhͿż4ɥ

ŐE 5ƀ3^wbŋʢ1DGͿˬOtildeş1D)ŃuumlGA3 25kW35okWͿĸdegʡʭʡ]bnKĠͿ-GƔʿ3Oacute4aRZn1D)˒ɮ0Gś3ʰƾ4ƀ 23otildeĜ-ŀdivideGƦŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷKēǧampƀ|b3Ouml 80-˺GaR

ZnKɥG˚ugrave3NjAEligʿ-GͿǕƃ4ˇŹǷɞ 15D7Oumlɞ 6ͼKȜƦŚGoumlmiddotʇ4ub`n1ļ+˺K˖)GȰlaquoʌ4 255ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A 0ĔTHORNɅ4Yacuteəźľ-3Ǵŋʢ1DGoumlł-FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ1D)yacuteYj

K)Gyumlƽɱ0dividePdlOzfynSrYƷotildeƊ1D)NjAEligHG

3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4˹ʌė˃0ĔTHORNɅKƾamp0ɯbrvbarȐʿKĠ==0brvbarȐiquest1ɥHF1

43iacuteƄ1DFƯƖʌ 421ťeumlɲKƖGɯbrvbarȐʿAG

(f) Q54Q1 -ɥampmg4Uh3 FIT otildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3˩ʙ-ɥampđɔaRZn3agrave˘mg-

G (Lensink et al 2009 Cleijne et al 2010)

422 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh3ȳͶoumlaRZn-4ƈˬ˴ėKƖǰņ 50 m2ˠȕ3QOoyMKƈˬG-

Gƕ)deg˘ɱ0ȳaRZn3ˬOtildeş4 100Έ300 MW-Fʡʭ1NjAEligHGȜģɯouml4szligːǨ 3300Έ4000ǨɸƎ-G2008ƀ1 Prinses AmaliaQOoyMřƭamp1ʆmg14$3]bnȒ4ƛAĠ=H0

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4 2500Έ3500kW3475Έ4865okWͿ-G2008ƀ1řƭampaRZn4$

3ǘƀntilde1Famp˴ė3iacuteǼacute3ampȣɱũĺ3 V90ĺ 2 MWͶKɥG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ɥbrvbarȐʿ3ɥśʷ3Ū01DFʰƾ14ņ0ʄśƟœķGƀʰƾ4 90

kW125okWͿLJŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZn|b3˺ȒKɥF$3Ouml3otildeĜ4 50-GPrinces

AmaliaQOoyM3˺4aRZnȢ1˖)GWACC3ƦŚOacute4ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3Ƿ]bn3ordmOacute-H4 NuonShellƯDzG OWEZecirc3Ǡœ3ȳQOoyM1ɥEHampOacute-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A Ǡœ3QOoyM4Ǣ MEP˩ɩ1ļ+˚ugraveKĖF97MWh135oMWhͿ3ijŚ

FITĽŌKƖampfynPdlOz3˚ugraveɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 3mg4Ľɯ˘$3reg3agraveɱ1eumlɥ-GƥĽ1ļ+A3-ƥĽ1ŸɮGľĜ4ʆHamp

ƥĽ1ļ+m[-˚)G

39

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘1ěƀ1ƦŚampD7ȳͶoumlɯ3OacuteKʆ2007ƀ3aRZn]bn4 2008ƀǨ

ɏ3n1G-ʆGUgrave 4-5 3ouml3źľEgraveȉ14ĕƊ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnǴŋʢ3otildeƊɞĠ=HG

Ugrave 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 1 15 120 NA Ͷļǘ ļ 1 5 60 NA ɯ szligːǨ 2000 2200 3350 NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 15 NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1120 (1557) 1325 (1842) 3315 (4608) NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 40 (56) 24 (33) 92 (128) NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) NA NA NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

Ugrave 4-4 JN6uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 5 5 5 NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 15 15 12 NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 50 NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 50 NA WACC ͼ 60 60 79 NA

Ǵ ƀ 10 15 10 NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 255 255 255 NA

FXn $US 139 139 139 NA

Ugrave 4-5 JN6uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (81) 56 (78) 59 (82) NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 663 (922) 28 (39) 97 (135) NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ 37 20 44 NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

43 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ƛ˞0˴ėKƖG3ampogP0)

G

40

431 JN6uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 4-2 JN6rmicroQ1plusmnecircxpsup327

(b) BL0+dj Uh3Ͷ3ːɞ4ʢ 25-FszligːǨ 2200 ǨͿđɔb3 30DFAfrac12FIT 1DG

˚ugrave4szligːǨ 2200 ǨKGG4 SDE ˠiacute3˳ʧKʾƬ$HDFAfrac12ˬŚHGͿamp2200ǨDFAŅɯGamp3PdlOz4ŚHGE1˞0˞į4B4FͶȯ-G

432 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4Đ3ĪͲ1EcircGė˃ƟGszligːǨ 2200Ǩsup2KɯGPdl

Oz4ŚHGͶ3ˬ˩$HHBBɮ0)Fƕ)EgraveȉŘ0Gė˃Ɵ4ǃ-0

Aring5ĝ ɯȗKAuml)AgzoũľĜƷ]bnfrac12szligːǨŀdivideG

(b) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ0)Gį4ĸdeg3-Fƀʢ 10kW15okWͿ-G

(c) ccedilntildeacirciacute-113T-1 đɔbȣGUh3Ͷoumlɯ4Ȱlaquoʌȣɱfrac12 (255ͼ) eumlɏAGǑĐ]bn

4ʾƬ0

433 s_F(=2E

Uh3ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ43ʍ͵3PdlOziacuteƄ3ơƣKĖG-G$30A34 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ-2007 ƀ=-1HK˞ȨampaRZn1ťMEP ˮȲ 81DF 10 ƀijŚotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligH2008 ƀsup21HK˞ȨampaRZn3ľĜ4SDE 1DF 15 ƀŃuumlotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligHG3 FITiacuteƄ1divideaRZn3ľĜ4ǰņƷ]bn 600kW834okWͿ1ťƷ]bn3 443ʌdž3Ʒ˚ugrave (EIA) D7otildeƊɞ 13fynKeumlɥG

ĎȲ27 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ ˮȲ 8 MEP (Milieukwaliteit Elektriciteitsproductie) Uh3oumlɣɤ1GȰƓ

41

-G

x 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup328

434 aringmH7B

Uh3yacuteYj42007 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn1˧5Ugrave 4-6 đɔͿʢ ndash36 MWhndash50oMWhͿPpb3Oacute10)GH4Đ3MEP3 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3ˬ˩3Ș1DGA3-˚ugraveͳ3ļɵ0)ampoumlEgraveȉK 2Έ3 MWh3Έ4 oMWhͿfrac12ƦŚamp1DGoumlEgraveȉ 6~8 MWh 1ǤG1HŪ0AoumlEgraveȉ4ͶoumlaRZn4ż1ͺoumlɱ0A310)ampƔʮiacuteƄ-G SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ1ļ+ 2008 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn143ȘĕFHyacuteYj4 ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿBBPpb3Oacute10)GěʍaRZn3ɯ]bn3Ž4ndash3 DFA4G1ņɏ1ȲƧG3ampndash3MWh4oMWhͿPpb3Oacute4eKņĮGA3-40 ȳͶoumlɯ3b3yacuteY4Ɗʯ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-)ampH4ɷDžƖampyacuteƥ

Ľ1ļ+A3-40Princes AmaliaQOoyM3Ȫʙ1İɣ amp4ǥE-G

44

Uh4ŧǽ1A 2020ƀ1AD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Dzdz0ɶȔOacuteKŚGɠķ3 SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ4HKśɠGamp3ǰA˞0k-G43 Eacute3ccedilǿʫȁEUh3brvbarAring1GyacuteYj4ʹ˒-40JG ugraveKƖampɯouml4szligːǨ 2200Ǩ=-1iacuteHG3ǘOacute4Uh3Ͷȯ1ċampA3-G2200Ǩsup23ɯ1ťGPdlOz4ŚHFHAƷ]bnfrac123į-Gė˃ƟGʰƾ4ĸdeg3ampȣɱ

0)G

ĎȲ28 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

42

Ugrave 4-6 JN6Iumlsectpsup329

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

91 (126)

94 (131)

166 (231) NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

127 (177)

96 (133)

161 (224) NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash36 (-50)

ndash3 (-4)

5 (7) NA

rOtildemiddot

Cleijne JW SM Lensink and CJ Faasen (2010) SDE Wind op land met vollasturen en differentiatie [SDE wind onshore with full load hours and differentation] ECN-E--10-001 Petten January 2010

Lensink SM JW Cleijne M Mozaffarian AE Pfeiffer S L Luxembourg and GJ Stienstra (2009) Eindadvies basisbedragen 2010 [Final advice SDE premium base rates 2010] ECNKEMA ECN-E--09-058 Petten November 2009

Rijksoverheid (2010) Nationaal actieplan voor energie uit hernieuwbare bronnen Richtlijn 200928EG [National Renewable Energy Action Plan Directive 200928EG] Den Haag June 2010

Statistics Netherlands (2010) online databank httpstatlinecbsnl VoorburgHeerlen August 2010

ĎȲ29 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

43

Aring 5Auml 1CN

51 1CNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bP3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯŮ1G=ampɚŚ3 EU 3ɶȔ1ļ+ CO2ǃaeligethȿ3amp

1 2020 ƀ 2030 ƀ1ƦŚHGɶȔOacuteKʆE1ˠiacute3ȂʩgtK˷ǥGraquo$30Ȓƭ˞ʥK˟ɷordfȾoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3]bn3ƐKŪ0Gamp1ɠķ˖JHGͿ E1 2008ƀ1GbPźľ3deg˘ɱ0QOoyM3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) K˷ǥ$3sup3

ŚKregĴ1GͶoumlɯ3]bnȣG

511 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac12frac34laquo

2009ƀǶǨɏ-Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4 19149 MW1bP3oumlʡʭ1 3ɭɶ1ņ0Ʌ0)GbP3Ͷoumlɯɯ4 90ƀdegĄ51Ő=F2001ƀsup24ǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşƀſĹ-ʢ 1800MWdivideHampˠiacuteǔȜHamp 2004ƀ 2007ƀ14Ĵɟplusmn 4362004D7 6612006Ϳ3şņŽ1ŀdivideamp3ˠiacute3ǔȜ1DF$HKeumlɥampǝˠaRZn3ʑ(EumlHamp

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯouml42009ƀ3bP3SrYʱ˞3ʢ 14KĈG x 5-14ŅĴȣ3ťƀ-G 2008ƀ=-1bP1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3H=-3ʦʏˬOtildeş

ƀŨTHORNşKʆG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3mg4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3SrY˖uuml˩ɩNREAPͿ1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)2020ƀ3currenɂ4SrY˞3 20Kaumlɣė˃SrY- EU3ɶȔƭ1ğampǘOacute-G

x 5-1 1CNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

x 5-1 4bP-H=-1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşD7notƔˬʹHG˟=HGˬOtildeşKʆG=ampƀŨTHORNşKx 5-21ʆ2009ƀbPǕƃ4 2010ƀE 2012ƀ=-3ěƀ1ˬʹG MWşKiacuteGamp3otildeƎKŚG1amp=ampoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3ƐKȿ Gamp3˩ɩKnotƔ3Ȱplusmn1ʩgtL-ɯ˘ampszlig3aumlɣė˃SrY]aRr`3

Ĝ˩ş 6000 MW4ʱoumlĕƊ3 25KĈH4ʪȽĊȗ-4ɚ1]bn-GͿ

44

bP1GȳͶoumlɯ30Ł4ņȍ0-F3ampȮų3ȦȻ 50m 10)Gƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ-4ͳ0ļʅ˞0F$3ampHE3aRZn3ś˖ė˃Ɵ4iacute

HGE1aacuteʡɏ-4ȺĀŇɓWbļĸ1ˬʹHG]uPo^PZWbgw3

ɯ1DG~nrjZœķGampNZdbşEHampA310)G

Ugrave 5-1 1CNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

16 22 34 49 62 85 100 116 151 167 23 35

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 5-2 1CNoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

16 06 12 15 13 23 15 16 35 16 15 14

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

512 s_CcedilN3N9A

Ȱɱ1currenƦHGEacuteɲKĖGamp14ͶoumlɯaRZnKɚecirc3iacuteƄ131ccedil͵Gƛ˞G

ʟĴ3ȉ˴ŚiacuteƄĝȓͿH4ͶoumlɯaRZnʡʭ1UacuteYacuteDžʯ-GũłbrvbarȐʿAacuteocircouml

KĕE250E0Ϳamp=ampEgraveȉˠiacuteHGamp-GĴɟƿplusmn 6612007-˘ǥHampD1Ͷoumlɯ3ǓƱbX14ˠiacuteǛbXźľĎɡ3 2G

ˠiacuteǛbX4QOoyMƯDzʿƸampǴ1GͶoumlɯ3ʻyacuteɱ0ijŚĕƊ

Egraveȉ-Gx 5-23ǘOacuteͿ ǰʨɱ0Egraveȉ 1Ǩ3ɪEgraveȉoumlPdlOz1ļ+oumlčźľEgraveȉ3ʩgtĜJ-Ȫ=GI3źľĎɡ4ĽŌ13AĤ5HGƕ)ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿĖĕGǛ4

Egraveȉ1ŷęHG10F3Egraveȉż1frac12ľĜ4ǰfrac12Egraveȉsup2-H5ˬ

EHGx 5-34ˠiacuteǛ3đɔOacuteKʆG

x 5-2 Ucircgntilde1)QEAcirc ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

45

ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ4ntildeǡźľ3ɯ˩ɩKNjaeligcurrenɂKɥ3˩ɩś3ɯouml3currenɂ˶ŸKȿE

D1GE1==0ĸĻ1ƈˬHampQOoyMɸuml1˚Ugrave-˶ŸKŪ0Gamp

1==0aRZn[ĀHG3`bl1DFN``bl3ȴɥ

ʬ˺ǙKǰĀG-$3]bn34ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿǓƱ)G2008 ƀ4ʢ 15 MWh205oMWhͿ-)amp ˫3Oacute4Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120071D)ȸʿEgraveȉƿǘ (CPI) 1ļ+ǭǝH2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝ

ɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp x 5-34Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073ǟ˖sup2Ɣ3 FITǛiacuteƄ3ŃuumlKʆampA3-G2007ƀĴɟƿplusmn 6612007

1DF CPI1Ȯ) FITǔ˨HG10F2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp2010ƀ14ǭǝHampOacutePpb10FntildeƀKĮ)ampH4 CPIe1)ampamp-G bP3ʡʭɥʿ-G Red Electrica de Espantildea (REE) 1DH5ˬ Otildeş3 94ijŚEgraveȉĕU`

1D)ɥHGampčoumlźľEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ƐH0x 5-4Ϳ

x 5-3 ~BINcentIcircceyuml~[umlāntildeĀ ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

x 5-4 dividejo~uumljfrac14divideethyuml2008Ā ǛΆ Spanish TSO (REE)

Ͷoumlɯ3ņccedil4čźľ-ɷDžłHGampĽ4Egraveȉ1ņŷęHŇɓWbEgraveȉȦouml

ɯ3ɛȯ0E71Ĵźľ1G CO2 Egraveȉ3Egraveȉ1ƐG3amp 2008 ƀ14ſǡEgraveȉ4 6443MWh8956oMWhͿ0F2007ƀ3 3935MWh5470oMWhͿK 64Į)ampH4ɠķ=-1˫HampEgraveȉ-ǰAͳ-G Ͷoumlɯ3źľĕƊEgraveȉKx 5-31oumlčEgraveȉKx 5-51ʆYacute1ampD1Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073brvbar

Aring-43Egraveȉ4E=-3ʜıatilde1GſǡoumlčEgraveȉ1ļ+EgraveȉĽŌ3Ĝ˩Oacute-G

46

x 5-5 dividejBQK[umllcedilyuml2003Ą2009Ā ǛΆOMEL and Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

52 1CN 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-2008 ƀ1GbP3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKHKreg3đdivideĴ1GͶoumlɯɯ3ěʍmȣG

521 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

ɚecirciquestiacute13`blKeumlɥGamp14bP3QOoyM3ˠȕ 50 MWK40E0ˬ ʹampQOoyM3ſĹˠȕ4ʢ 25 MW-˩ ʙQOoyM3ˬOtildeşK 2007ƀA 2008ƀA 30MWsup3ŚG Ğɶ3ɥǨ4Śȉaeligouml-ƀ 1700ǨE 2350Ǩ=-==-G2008ƀ3szligĴſĹ4 2085

ǨͿ=ampaRZn3đɔOacute4 2007ƀ- 2200Ǩ2008ƀ- 2150Ǩ-)amp bP-ɥEHGszlig3ʪȽm-4aRZn3ɥǴ4 20ƀGraquoH4Q

OoyM3śʷ4E0Ϳ2007ƀ 2008ƀ14aRZn3Py^PZK 20ƀG

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹˠȕ4 1985 kW-2007ƀ3 1621 kWEJ1ŀdivideamp3m-ȏ˪G34 2000 kW3Ͷ0J(3QOoyM-4 2 MW3Ͷ 15ļͿ-G

x 5-6 2008THORNOacuteuumlegrave2bszlig ǛΆ Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

47

(b) ccedil-1 ƀ3Ʒʱͳ0)amp34Zb III D7 IV ˮȲ 93ņĺͶoumlɯ˙ʹˬʹHampE-

FƎeacuteEĶʡʭ93ʡBěʍʌcurrenɂHampJ-40 $H1AJEƀ4ĎǺǛ]bn3frac121DFͶ3]bnȿŪG=ampǕĊȗˠiacute3

Ńǭ1DFͶ3˞Afrac12ampQOoyM93Ʒʱͳ1ĈGͶ3]bn4ʢ 70Έ73ͼ-G3]bn4ĎǺǛ3Egraveȉɠķ3[jo]o1Ɇ ampƛ˞0ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵ1šDž1EcircG

2007ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn14Ʒ]bn4 1233kW1714okWͿ2008ƀ14 1250kW1738okWͿLJŚHG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾAaeligoumlƶiacuteȒatildeoumlȸ3amp3oumlǛˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵŀamp1DFŀdivide

Gʰƾ4 2007ƀ 1910MWh2655oMWhͿ2008ƀ 1963MWh2729oMWhͿLJŚHG100ͼŃuumlͿHE3]bn4|3ŃuumlƟdegǯĦ3eumlɥė˃Ɵƛ˞HGɕʶƴ˗ʿBȗȋ˙ʹ)amp˞į1G Ͷoumlɯȗ3^Pc4ƼņGͶȯ3ǰAD^Pn4-1eumlɥHGampŚȉǨ4ȿŪ

G10G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȞĘɱ1bP-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯKbPĴatilde3˖3oumlD7ŘŚampȰɱȂ

ʩgt1ļ+aRZn3yacuteiquestiacute1D)˺amp$H1AJEȵuumlƟKȘamp˺iacute

Ƅ3amp13 2ƀ-ɛȯŃĀAgraveE3ƺIgrave1DGIgrave˯ƛ˞10)G ˺]bn42007ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ1ˬŚHG2007ƀ2008

ƀAǷOuml3ȣɞ4 2ť 8-G2008ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A źľ93ł1DGĔTHORN42007ƀ1 394MWh548oMWhͿ2008ƀ1 644oMWh895o

MWhͿ-)amp3ĔTHORN1ť2007ƀ1 348MWh483oMWhͿ2008ƀ14 215MWh299oMWhͿ˰EgraveHamp FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideHGFITǕʘǴ4(E3bA 20ƀ1ijŚHG

(f) Q54Q1 1ʆampmg4bPͶoumlɯąmiddot (AEE) D7 Intermoney śǟampʃʐ1ļ+A3-G

522 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

bP3ȳͶoumlɯSN4 62SN1ccedilotildeHHE3SN-4ͶoumlɯˠiacuteHGHE3SN1ťTHORNǸ˖JHG10G3śɱPq`NizK5currenɂHGQOo

yM3ˠȕ4ʢ 1000 MW-G

(b) ccedil-1 mg0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig mg0

ˮȲ 9 Zb III4sectʬ˵Ũɯȗ (DFIG) D7ccedilŚȉ3]ugKɥampͶZb IV4ĝǴɯȗD7y

Śȉ]ugE0GͶccedil͵HG3ccedil͵ǞȰ3˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

48

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mg0

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A mg0

(f) Q54Q1 mg0

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 5-25-54sup23 LCOEccedilǿ-ɥampm[3ntildeNjǼacuteKʆA3-G]bn3sup3Ś4szlig 2007

ƀ 2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZnK˘A3-2008ƀnǨ3-˘ʆG

Ugrave 5-3 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 30 30 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ 15 15 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ 2200 2150 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1233 (1714) 1250 (1738) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 191 (266) 196 (272) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA

Ugrave 5Ă4 1CNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 9 10 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 6 7 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 NA NA Ǵ ƀ 15 15 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 30 30 NA NA

FXn $ 139 139 NA NA

Ugrave 5-5 1CNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 53 (74) 54 (75) NA NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 34 (47) 35 (49) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ

ͼ 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 20 20 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 36 (51) 37 (52) NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

49

523 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 5-7 1CNrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup330

(b) BL0+dj bP3ͶoumlɯaRZn4đɔbDFAˬOtildeeumlɥɞfrac12ͶȯbP3szligːǨ1Ɛ

GampbP3 LCOE4đɔb3 LCOEDFA 18MWh25oMWhͿ0)Gđɔb3ſĹːǨLJŚ 2680Ǩ-G31ťbP4 2150Ǩ0)G szligːǨ4bP3 LCOE đɔb3 LCOE 3Ÿɮ13ǰA˞0Ńǘ-GͶȯ1divide

ʰƾAđɔbKĮ)FH14ĸdegD7ĸĻBˇȬiquest˞ȨGeumlɲɞAĠ=HG LCOE33˷ǥ0Gʖ 33˞į4˺]bn-F3ͳ4aRZn3WACCD7ǰʨɱ

1ě3Ʒ1˞ȨHGƷĔɲɞ (ROI) KŀdivideG

(c) ccedil-1 bP3Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4ʢ 1250kW1738okWͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 200

kW278 okWͿŘbP-4Ʒ]bnfrac12ampLCOE 4 10 MWh14 oMWhͿfrac120G ǑĐ]bn4QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘʨpoundamp3ɯˬOtilde3˥iquest]bnKĠampͳ-ʱƷ]

bn3ʢ 3ͼKĈG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bP3brvbarAring1Gyacuteɛȯ1ˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlɲɞ4đɔbDFA0)G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig bP-4ʰƾđɔbDFA0)GbP3ʰƾʱͳ14ʌĸdeg

ʚɡ]bnKĠamp3ŃuumlĠ=HGnotƔ3ʪethȿoumlˇŞȸǛ3ǤˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ

˜Ɵ3=F1DFʰƾAŀdivideG˟gt-G ſĹbP3ʰƾ4ʢ 196MWh272oMWhͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 7

MWh10oMWhͿ

ĎȲ30 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

50

524 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

Yacute1ampD1bP14 FIT iacuteƄͶoumlɯ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄͿźľiacuteƄźľEgraveȉͶoumlɯ3ĽŌͿ 23ǓƱiquestʡG2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ3ʢ 91ͼKźľiacuteƄ1DFłampH4ɯȐʿDFŅ3ĔTHORNKƖEHGamp-G x 5-8 4ĔTHORN3ŃǘȥǛͿͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOz3ŃǘbP1GźľiacuteƄ

3ĽŌͿKȣampA3-G

x 5Q-8 1CNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup331

525 aringmH7B

bP3mccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿ-G3EſĹbP3ͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOzEaRZnɯ

3yacute˞acuteKɄamp-G3ăccedil0Xj`yKƖGJG

53 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 5Ă6 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+psup332

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

76 (106)

83 (115) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

87 (121)

86 (120) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash11 (ndash15)

ndash3 (ndash4) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2009) ldquoEoacutelica 09 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Julio 2009)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileANUARIO20COMPLETO5B15Dpdf

ĎȲ31 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ32 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

51

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2008) ldquoEoacutelica 08 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Junio 2008)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee- publicaAEE_anuario_ingles08pdf

AEE ndash Intermoney (2006) ldquoEstudio de costes del sector eoacutelico Realizado por Intermoney para AEE (2006)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee-publica060612-Gen-EolicaEsp- PRALpdf

Comisioacuten Nacional de la Energiacutea (CNE) wwwcnees

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Red Eleacutectrica de Espantildea (REE) Spanish TSO wwwreees Royal Decree 6612007 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacionRD_661-2007-REpdf Royal Decree 4362004 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacion(36)RD436_2004pdf Spanish Market Operator (OMEL) wwwomeles

52

Aring 6Auml 1$QN

61 1$QNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bQRm3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙ0E71 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿK˷ǥG

611 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş42004ƀ1 474 MW)amp3 2008ƀǶ14 937 MW0)Gx 6-1ͿbQRmĆ3ȳQOoyM3ˬOtildeş4 2007ƀ14 110 MW-)amp=ampqN`N133Ƀ-3ɯAEHG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯcurrenɂ4EUdivideɳĴ3ěĴaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 3mg1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)

x 6-1 1$QNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_Uacuteuacute

ǛΆVinkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 and European Commission 2010 Ugrave 6-14bQRm1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=amp

Ugrave 6-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 6-1 1$QNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

220 220 272 322 381 429 470 560 698 951 2065 4365

ȳ 10 20 23 23 23 23 23 23 133 133 150 182

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

53

Ugrave 6-2 1$QNoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

ndashndashndash 05 51 50 59 48 41 90 138 253 278 288

ȳ ndashndashndash 10 25 0 0 0 0 0 110 0 4 4

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

612 s_CcedilN3N9A

bQRm-4aumlɣė˃SrY1DGɯ3ǓǎʘĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ (TGC) KŨTHORNG$3ɶɱ42016ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 17 TWh1ŀB-G3ɶȔOacuteK2020ƀ=-1ė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 25 TWh1GE1OacuteGampɠķ3iacuteƄ3ǔȜȏ˪HG=ampbQRmsQR3aacute`bl3Ȓʝ1ğampordfȾ˖J

HG 2008 ƀ=-4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ˖ɢĿĽŌ13AĤ5HGijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) Ͷoumlɯ

1ɥHamp3ɢĿĽŌ134ȳͶoumlɯ14 2009ƀ=-eumlɥė˃-)amp=amp 2003ƀ1vPjnaRZn3Ǔǎ˩ɩŐHampȳͶoumlɯţaringȥNtildeȎȀĸŻ-3Ͷoumlɯ)

ampˉģȻ˟0HampaRZn12008 ƀE 2012 ƀ=-3Ǵ1 3710 5160 oͿ3currenʙotildeƎEHG

2006 ƀʈǕƃ3ɢĿƐccedilǿ1Gˠiuml0E71ǝˠͶoumlɯaRZn3˴ėdbʞɬĀH25 MW=-3QOoyM4ˇȬiquest1ŭaeligH5ˬʹ-G0)amp ͶɅ3eumlɥ1GƥĽKƁcedilGampbQRmǕƃ3Ũ3Ͷoumlɯ3eumlɥ1GĴatilder

jnZĎȲ33ȒʝHamp3rjnZ1DFͶoumlɯ3˩ɩʘŚD7˴ŚʋuacuteOslashoumlbrvbarȐ3ɯ

Ůʰƾʚɡ1Gʀ˾KȻbQRm3ͶoumlɯɯaRZnKEumlH

G E1Ͷoumlɯ3]mOrgKɥɯbrvbarȐʿEcircƎŬ0E71ĸUcircĸĻĴ3ě|1

GEcircʿ3ordfȵEumlKIJ)G

62 1$QNVUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

621 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bQRm-43aRZn3szligːǨ4 2600Έ3050 ǨĽġHGżbQR

m3Ͷoumlɯj1ʆHGszligːǨ4ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿNjaeligampǘŒKĮ)

G3amp˩ʙ-4bQRm3aRZn3ǰʨɱ0ͶoumlɯǨKĽġHampʜı3 2600ǨͿG

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3aRZn42008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZn3]bnD7ɯoumlēǧ

Hampdeg˘ɱaRZnŚʻHamp Ƿ]bn4ampF 12171915kW1692Έ2662okWͿ=-Fmccedilǿ-4 1591kW2212okWͿsup3Śamp

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3ijŚccedil4ſĹ 0004 kW0006 okWͿŃuumlccedil4ʢ 11 MWh15 o

ĎȲ33 httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse đɔ

54

MWhͿLJŚG3Ńuuml4 7 MWh10 oMWhͿE 24 MWh33 oMWhͿ=-FvPjnaRZn1Gʰƾ4ż1ŃuumlņɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒

ɮ0)G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 Ugrave 6-51ʆD1mccedilǿ-4OumleumlőKƷŞżĽġG 5˟L-GͶoumlɯ1Ʒ

GparaȐ3middot˩Ľġ3ccedilǿ-420ͼƍOuml]bnʆHGbQRm3paraȐccedilǿEŨaeligampƛ˞0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞʫ7macrOumleumlőɞK 5LJŚampľĜͶoumlɯ3]bnKũ˰EgraveG10F20

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ǵŋʢ1DGźľ93oumlłŨTHORNHGĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ

23ĔTHORN3ȵH1D)KƖG(E3ĔTHORNɅAʄśƟż12008ƀ=-FITĽŌiacuteƄAɥHFͶoumlɯaRZn4 2 MWh3 oMWhͿŪͳ3ĽŌKĖamp

(f) Q54Q1 LCOE˩ʙ3mg4˫3D0ɥǓǎ˩ɩ3ʫȁD7Ĵatilde3_3amp1bQRmSrY

Ŭ=ampmg)amp˜ǘ3ƥĽɅ1ļ+A3-GǑĐ]bn4 Svensk Vindenergi (2009) 3mgKAumlɥampbQRm3Ͷoumlɯ˩ɩ1Gʭ˩Oacute4bQRmSrYŬȢƀɯ˘

GĽġǮ ES20103 ldquoVindkraft statistic 2009 (Wind power statistics 2009)rdquoD7 Vindkraft Statistik 20081ļ+G2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯǨ4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ3mgKAumlɥGE1Ͷoumlɯ3ɯȐbrvbarʿEʆmg3NjAEligKĖamp=ampEcircGotildeƊɞKǥE1Gampmiddot˩ǛKđɔampE14˚Ǜ O2 0E71 AriseȇƉźľ3ŨTHORN1GbrvbarȐaeligɘəEŦŞ3Ƨ˟KƊɥamp

622 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

2008ƀǨɏ-ŨTHORNHampbQRmǰņ3ȳaRZn4Lillgrunden3 11 MW3aRZn-)amp3aRZn4 Vattenfall 2004ƀ1Ɗʮ2007ƀ1ʡʭ1ʡHampLillgrundenaRZn-4 Siemens3 23 MWͶ MKII 48ļAumlɥHG$3( 13ļ4 2004ƀsup2ntilde1ʡʭ1ʡHGbQRm3ǰǝaRZn4 3 MW3Ͷ 10ļKOtildeamp GaumlsslingegrundaRZn-H4 VaumlnernɃ3Ģ 7Έ13m1ļʅKˬʹampqN`N133aRZn-G

Ugrave 6-3 LillgrundenBL0+Z

Lillgrundenmg Ά ļɆȷDF 115 m gɷƑΆ 924 m ʱʏΆ 6734 m2 iacuteƗǞȰΆ ėŃxjiD7ėŃƄ gƄΆ 6Έ16 rpm ǰņYacuteʔƄΆ 280 kmh gΆ 60 t pdΆ 82 t gΆ 110 t LJŚƀɯoumlΆ 6875500 kWh ˬOtildeeumlɥɞΆ 35ͼ ſĹͶΆ 85 ms

55

Ugrave 6-4 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 235 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 41 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2600 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1591 (2212) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 0004 (0006) NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 16 (222) NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 6-5 1$QNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 12 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 87 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 13 NA NA WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 47 NA NA

Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 28 NA NA

FXn SEKeuro ndashndashndash 942 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

Ugrave 6-6 1$QNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 50 (70) NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 25 (35) NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 2 (3) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 1 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

623 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

x 6-2 1ʆD1bQRm3 LCOE 4đɔbDFʢ 1 MWh1 oMWhͿfrac120)G

56

x 6-2 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1psup334

(a) BL0+dj bQRm3szligːǨ4đɔbDFAH4ͶoumlɯaRZn1eumlɥ-Gĵĸʏ

^[ampreg3Țŵ˽ĴDFAņampƎɓ3-G

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3Ʒ4oumlɯaRZnTGC `bl2001 ƀEŨTHORNͿ0E71Ǡœ3 NordPool

ʡʭ1995ƀEoumlĕƊͿ3amp1đɔbDFABB0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig đɔbbQRm3ʰƾ3Ÿɮ4ǰũ3A3-H4^1DGė˃Ɵʹ˒

-40

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bQRm3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12H4bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ93Ʒ1

GbZ3|frac12E-FbQRm3Ͷoumlɯɯ1GʪEƎɓ3˧G

x 6-3 1$QNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup335

ĎȲ34 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

57

624 s_CcedilN3N9A

ĔTHORN4 1Ϳoumlł1DGĔTHORN2Ϳ[˯Ǯł1DGĔTHORN3ͿFITE3Ūͳ3ĔTHORN2009ƀ1ƆțͿ3 3-ȒƭHG ĔTHORN4źľE33ȵH-GampʄśƟņ0b-4ȥǛ4 50 MWh

70 oMWhͿ-ŘŚG˟0H[˯ǮEgraveȉ4ʢ 25 MWh35 oMWhͿ)amp2009ƀ1OacuteHamp

625 aringmH7B ſĹɱ0aRZn14ouml3źľEgraveȉ TGCiacuteƄ3˚UgraveKʩgtĜJG-ăccedil1]bnK

-GD-G

Ugrave 6-7 1$QNIumlsectpsup336

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 75

(104) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash8

(ndash11) NA NA

63 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 6-7 1ʆampD1bQRm3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˇŹǷ]bnD7Ouml]bnfrac12amp1ǷdivideſĹĎEgrave (WACC) ȣɱfrac120)GD-GaRZn3AEligʬ4Ouml1DGǷ˺1DGA3-macr3˺Ǵ4 20ƀ-G$HDFAmacrǴʁľĜA$EG˕Ǵ3ʨpoundǨ1ʸFHG bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ4ȞĘ=ampƀƞ1ƭG2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrY

ɅK 25 TWh1GɶȔKƭGamp14ͶoumlɯKE1ɯŮƛ˞G

rOtildemiddot

Dagens Industri wwwdise 2010-03-16 Storm kring vindkraftsbolag

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

E24 wwwe24se 2010-03-16 Vindkraftsbolagen anklagas foumlr glaumldjekalkyler Nationellt naumltverk foumlr vindbruk (national network for winduse) httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse

Svensk Vindenergi 2009 Vindkraftverk ndash kartlaumlggning av aktiviteter och kostnader vid nedmontering aringterstaumlllande av plats och aringtervinning

Vinkraftstatistik 2009 ES 20103 2010 Swedish Energy Agency available at

ĎȲ35 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ36 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

58

httpwwwenergimyndighetenseGlobalPressPressmeddelandenVindkraftsstatistik202009p df

Vindkraftstatistik 2007 ES 20082 2008 Swedish Energy Agency available at httpwwwenergimyndighetenseen

59

Aring 7Auml 11

71 11uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bPb3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙacirciquestɱ14 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿ3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1GbPb4atildeĴ-GampȳaRZn4œķ0ǪˤIgrave3ampɃȭĸĻ4ɠķͶoumlɯ^PnEńHG

711 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş41996ƀ3 2 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 14 MW1ŀdivideampͶoumlɯ1DGƀɯouml4 2000ƀ3 18 GWhE 2008ƀ3 2020 GWh1ŀdivideampH1ť 2008ƀ3ʱ˞ouml4 587 TWh-Gɠķ˩ɩEHGaRZn1D)2012ƀ14 65 MW3ɯė˃10GLJŚHGǕƃ3SrYǕʘ-4 2030ƀ1 44 MWKɯGɶȔKljG

x 7-1 11uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

Ugrave 7-14bPb1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 7-24ĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-1 11IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

28 28 451 455 456 866 116 116 116 136 176 65 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

60

Ugrave 7-2 11oacute_ethyumlMWĀ

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

28 00 170 065 001 350 290 002 000 200 400 150 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

712 s_CcedilN3N9A

bPb-4 2008 ƀ1oPkĝȓ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄFITͿKŨTHORNamp3`bl4LJŚHG LCOEKamp3A3-GFIT 1Ġ=HG34oumlźľEgraveȉ[ouml3Oacute-GͶoumlɯ14bPb3 FIT4 110MWh153oMWhͿΈ130MWh181oMWhͿ1ijŚHG

72 11VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

721 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZn42 MW3Ͷ 6ļKOtildeamp Juraű˅Ȕ 1000Έ1200 mͿ3

QOoyM-GbPb1GͶoumlaRZn3L2 MW3ͶgɷƑ 82 mtzʢ 8 0mͿKɥG3ĸĻ-4NZdbiacuteHGamp1gɷƑg31ˬEHFŚȉaeligouml 800Έ1000 kWtz 40~60 m3ͶKeumlɥG

(b) ccedil-1 bPb1Gdeg˘ɱ0aRZn3ě3Ʒ]bn4ampF 1790 kW2488 kWͿ-G

Țŵ1GͶ93Ʒ]bn3otildeĜ4ſĹʢ 76bPb-4 55~6810)G34bPb3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn93NZdbďiacuteHGamp=ampbPb-4laquoacuteż1amp-G

3ampɯƯ3ʪȣɱ0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ14bPb-4śʷŪ0ampEWEA agrave˘ampʰƾ3ȣ1ļ+bPb3ʰƾK 31MWh43oMWhͿsup3Śamp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 sup23˘4bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥamp˺]bnKʆG

Ugrave 7-3 ccedilntildeacirciacute-1YacuteEgrave

źľeuml 5 ƛ˞0Ƿeumlɲɞ 7

Ƿ3otildeĜ 30 ˀɥƀǘ 20ƀ ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ 20ƀ

Py 0 Ǵ 20ƀ

ȰlaquoʌɞOECDͿ 21

61

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A bPb14aumlɣė˃SrYɯ3brvbarȐeumlɥ-Gɜʑ3ĔTHORN`bl 2ʍ͵G 64 FIT `bl-H4sup23]bn˩ʙ3ļɵ0GA3-3ȽKĖEHG34Ȧoumlɯ

10 MWsup2atildeͿňɖɯͶoumlɯuPUb0E71uPUbƆǺ-Gaumlɣė˃SrYɅ[vͿ1DGɯ1ɥė˃03Ǜ`bl4ɯǞƉaeligoumlecirc1đɔˬOtilde1ļ+acirciquest

ɱ1ˠŚHěƴ˗3 LCOEK-Gshyʩgt10)GȽ4ɯǞƉ1D) 20Έ25ƀ3Ǵ1ɥHGcurrenƦHGƴ˗db0E71HE3ƴ˗3źľĀEuml1DFHE3Ǜ`bl

-4ͳ3Ƞɱfrac12currenƦHGǛ3ȿͳɥHG34ɰampɯˬOtilde3gt-FHE3ˬ

Otilde4ȽǴK ŚampǛ`bl1DFȽKĖGɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKLľĜ$HĝǨ1oumlźľ-[oumlKłG4-00G ʖ 2 3ĔTHORN`bl4[oumlźľ-GɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKeumlɥ-0ľĜ4źľ-

oumlKłG10Gż$3ĔTHORN4ɯbrvbarȐʿoumlmiddotʇ3ordfȾ1D)ȪŚHGoumlĽŌK

ouml3źľEgraveȉ1divideampͳ-G

(f) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşmg4 Swiss Wind Energy Association ldquoSuisse Eolerdquo1DGA3-GƷ]bn

ʰƾ3mg4 2008ƀ1˩ɩHampͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ȇ1DGA3-G˺]bn4 FIT˩ʙD7 Swiss Federal Office of Energy3mTHORNouml3sup3Ś1ļ+A3-G Ugrave 7-47-64bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOELJŚ1ɥampmĀ1Gsup3ŚKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-4 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 2 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 6 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 1750 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1790 (2488) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 31 (43) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 7-5 11uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 7 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 30 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 70 NA NA Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 21 NA NA

FXn CHFeuro ndashndashndash 067 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

62

Ugrave 7-6 11uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125 (174) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash Ńuuml NA NA

ɯȐʿTHORNȐʿ-ordfȾ

73 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯ]bn4ʢ 120MWh167oMWhͿ-đɔbDFA 58MWh81oMWhͿ0)G

731 -1plusmnecirc

x 7-2 11uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecircpsup337

(a) BL0+igraveeacuteOgrave bPb-ɯHampouml4đɔbDFA˒Ū00)GH4ͶoumlɯʋƄ-Gamp

-GszligːǨ 1750ǨͿ

ĎȲ37 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringěĴ LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0G

ľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

63

(b) ccedil-1 bPb3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAH4Ņ3^Pn93NZdbİ

˜-GD7laquoacuteamp-GbPb3aRZn4ũˠȕ03-ņˠȕ0aRZ

nȣͶTHORNǨ3otildeƊɞfrac120)G

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig bPb3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAɯƯ-4ɼȧcentȵĪͲ10)F$3ampʰƾʚɡ

]bn0)GbPb-4ʰƾ1Gśʷ4L0

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bPb3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ4 7HGraquoL3a

RZn4yacute3ɡɦ1DFƷ0oumlmiddotʇ˺Goumlmiddotʇ4[ouml3˞3

=F1ƚKŠG

732 s_F(=2E

bPb1GͶoumlɯ3 FIT4 110~130MWh153Έ181oMWhͿ-mĀccedilǿ-4 125MWh174oMWhͿKɥGĔTHORN3DF˳˷ǥ4 721ugrave(e) Kđɔ3|-4$Hsup2ń3yacuteǓǎ`bl40

x 7-3 11uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup338

733 aringmH7B bPb-4ǕʘPdlOz1DF LCOE K)Gx 7-3 EbPb3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaR

Zn-4 FIT1DF LCOEK˚)GJG

ĎȲ38 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

64

73

Ugrave 7-7 11uumljBL0+psup339

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 120

(167) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125

(174) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash5

(ndash7) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

Die Website fuumlr Windenergie-Daten der Schweiz Accessed at wwwwind-datach

Erlaumluternder Bericht zur Revision der Anhaumlnge EnV Bundesamt fuumlr Energie 2102009

Swiss Energy Act of June 26 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_0html

Swiss Energy Ordinance of December 7 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_01html

ĎȲ39 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

65

Aring 8Auml Ecircz

81 Ecirczuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4ʟĴ1GD7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1$3]bn3ɚƙɚ1 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3ŚK˷ǥGȳͶoumlɯ14ʟĴ-4=$3ɯ1Gśʷ ampʞć1˦HG3gtG=ampAring 1 Auml1ʆampđɔbȣamp2008ƀ3ʟĴ3]bnccedilǿʫȁK˷ǥG

811 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

ʟĴ1GʦʏˬOtildeş42000ƀ3ʢ 25 GWE 2008ƀǶ3 25 GW1ŀdivideampx 8-1Ϳ2005ƀsup2ěƀƄ3ƀˬOtildeş4˫Kǭǝʯ2008ƀ14ǝamp1 85 GWdivideHampĎȲ402008ƀ14ǝˠɯşszligiquest3 42KͶoumlɯĈGſĹɱ0ƀ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeş1DFʟĴ3ʱȸouml3ʢ 19ͼKAEligʬ-GHG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)2008ƀ3ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4szlig3ͶoumlɯƯ1GǘOacute-GȳͶoumlɯaRZnA˩ɩHFɠķ4$3˴ėĕƖ

Ƞ1G x 8-1 4ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3Đ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71 2012 ƀ3currenɂD7 2030 ƀ

3ɉķɱ`pUKʆG

x 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

ʟĴ4ǥʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3ɶȔOacuteKˬŚ0ƕ)x 8-1 4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴŞɶȔOacute3degJF3mgɏKʆampA3-GSrYƥĽŬ (EIA) 3ʁǴcurrenɂ1DH52012 ƀ1ǝamp1ʢ 10 GW divideHGampˬOtildeş4 2008ƀDFAGʋƄŀdivideG˟gt-G (EIA 2009)ĎȲ41Ǵcurrenɂ1Gƀ3ʃʐ-

ĎȲ40 ś3IʟĴ-4 2009ƀA3timesğʯFǝamp1divideHampͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4 10 GWƍ10

(AWEA2010)ǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ŅĴȣ3ťHamp 2008ƀ1GA3-G ĎȲ41 Yacute1ampD12009ƀ1ɯHampͶoumlɯ3ˬʹş4 10 GWƍ10 (AWEA 2010)

66

4ɉķɱ0Ͷoumlɯ`pU3ccedilǿ1ļ+2030ƀ=-1ʟĴ-˟=HGouml˞3 20KͶoumlɯ-Ʉamp-GG (DOE 2008)3ʃʐ3LJŚ1DH520Pbn1Gamp14Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 305 GWƛ˞10GD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Ĝ˩Ϳ=amp3ʃʐ-42018ƀ=-1ƀˬOtildeşʢ 16 GW1ŀdivideGLJŚG Ugrave 8-1 4ʟĴ1GĐD7notƔcurrenɂHGʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 8-2 4Đ

D7notƔcurrenɂHGƀŨTHORNşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

25 26 43 47 64 68 92 117 169 255 595 251

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

Ugrave 8-2 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

NA 01 17 04 17 04 24 25 52 86 103 16

ȳ NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

812s_CcedilN3N9A

ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ3ampGĔTHORNɅ4oumlłaumlɣė˃SrYźľ˯ǥ (REC) -Gouml3ʪȽEgraveOacute REC3ł4ĸĻźľ$3reg3Ǽacute1DFaRZnȢ1ɮ0)G ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ4Ǖƃ3ʌiacute3UacuteLjʹ1D)ǓEHG2008 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ

ƴ˗143UacuteLjʹPy˺Ǚɣɤʌͳdž PTCͿ ɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČɥė˃-)amp (Schwabe et al 2009)

PTC4 2004ƀ=-1AgraveƄɄǴ1ampH3ľĜAǭǝHamp2000ƀE 2004ƀ=-1Aɯņ1EumlHamp2004ƀsup24 PTCżǨɥ-GD10)ampamp2005ƀE 2009ƀ1ʟĴ3ƀŨTHORNş4˫ɱ1ŀdivideamp (AWEA 2010) Ǖƃ3Ǖʘȿʌ4$3ť0Gaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗1˞0ʪȽɱEacuteɲKAampEGɠķ

EgraveOacute1ļ+ͶoumlɯaRZn14PTC divideUgraveČ3sect3Eacuteɲ1DFļɆaRZn3ˬʹ]bn3 35KG˟gt-G (Bolinger 2010)ľĜ1D)4PTCdivideUgraveČ3˜Ĝɱ0ʪȽucircȁouml3ł REC3ĔTHORN1ʗ0GG4$HKĮG10G (Harper et al 2007)ĎȲ42

82 Ecircz 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ƿʛ-42008 ƀ3ʟĴ1Gdeg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKGǷĽġǮ3reg3Ĵ3ȣ3ampʟĴ3ſĹɱG4deg˘ɱ0aRZn3ɚƙKsup21˷ǥGraquoȜʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3aR

Zn]bnɚƙ4ĸĻ1D)ɮ0FˬOtildeşAņ

ĎȲ42 H4Ͷoumlɯ3oumlȥǛĸUcirc3 RECEgraveȉ)ampĸĻ1D)ɮ0GǘŅ3˞į1ŷęHG

67

821 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ1G3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ſĹˬOtildeş4 1998Έ1999ƀ3ʢ 35 MWE 2007ƀ3 120 MW

=-F2008ƀ14 83 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ1ˬʹHampͶ3Śȉş4 05 MWǵɄE 3 MW=-F2008ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn-4ſĹ 167 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ3ǰAˊɱ0Ͷ4Śȉaeligouml 15 MWgɷƑ 77 mtz 80 m (GE2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) -G

(b) BL0+Ouml ͶɅ34aRZn1D)ņ1ɮ0)Gszligiquestɱ14ʟĴ-4ɡƦɱ0Ͷȯ10)G

ʟĴ3aRZn3szligːǨ4ʢ 1800Έ4400 ǨŃuumlņ2008 ƀ14şdivideſĹ 3066 ǨˤŤHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ43szligːǨ3LJŚOacute4 2007ƀ1ˬʹH 2008ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+A3-ʟĴszligiquest3ͶɅ3ɉķƟK|b1ampA3-40ɏ1ɫƧ-

G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn4ƀɼś1ŀdivideG2008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZ

n14Ʒ]bn4ǰfrac12ʢ 1000kW1400okWͿE 1800kW2500okWͿƍ=-FşdivideſĹ4 1378kW19195okWͿ-G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ44

Ľġ1DH5Ͷ3ĕƊEgraveȉAƀǤtimesğ1)amp2008 ƀ3˕Ċȗ0E71$H1sup1ǪȥƔ1DG˞frac123Ɛ-Ͷ3EgraveȉD7AEligʬ3frac12ɣ G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009 Bolinger 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ14ijŚŃuuml3ǞĠ=H(E-˘ADş|b3]bn

kWͿ14Igraveɤʌ$3reg3ǟˬ]bnˬOtildeordfnjǔŃouml|b3ĸdegʗĠ=HGʟĴ-eumlɥė˃03ʰƾ3mg4EHG3ampǷĽġǮ1ʆʰƾ4LJŚOacute1

ˁĕFʫȁʆĨGD1ǨǴūǣ3ĦordfnjKĠampʰƾĽġHampmg1ăccedilēǧH

0ė˃ƟGE1notƔ4Ͷ3ʽǹĀBIgrave˯Ǵ3ʨpound1DFʰƾ3LJŚOacuteǤGė

˃ƟG 2000ƀdeg1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯaRZn1Wiser Bolinger4 2000Έ2008ƀ3şdivideſĹ

ʰƾK 58MW80oMWͿ˟L-G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009) raquo3ʰƾ14ˊɱ1ɤʌĠ=H03]bnKĠGamp1Wiser Bolinger 3

LJŚOacute1ƀſĹ 50kW70okWͿ3ɤʌ3LJŚǓƱͳĎȲ45divideʙHGɤʌKĠamp

ʰƾʱͳ4Ńuuml-˘5 74MWh103oMWhͿijŚ-4ƀ 226kW314okWͿ-GĎȲ46ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3ʃʐ-42010ƀ=-3ʰƾKʢ 69MWh96oMWhͿBBfrac12˟ʏA)G (DOE 2008)ĎȲ47

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯɯaRZn3˺-4ˇŹ3otildeĜKaRZn|

b3OumlKlteampˇŹ3otildeĜ0)G34114ȞĘɱ1ɣɤʌdžǜʯɱ1˖JHampamp-GOuml1DG˺4ͶoumlɯaRZn3˺ǴKƊ=amp

˜1Gė˃ƟFE14ʪȽɱEgraveOacute3G PTCǴKŗH00GƠHG (Harper et al 2007) Ouml1DG˺KŪ0GǞğƟɣ amp34aRZnɯi`blSrYD

7Ǩ14ɢĿ˞ʥKĠͿ3aeligouml3˃ouml13KʰƾGKdzLamp-$3ampSrYŋʢǛ

ĎȲ43 ˬOtildeeumlɥɞ 35ͼ1ļ+ ĎȲ44 ]bn4szlig 2008ƀƄ3D7o-˘ʆ2008ƀ 12DZ 31ǡsup23onjʙ1ɥampɐǯn4 1

139o (Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ45 NREL3atildemg|bELJŚampɤʌǓƱͳ3ſĹ ĎȲ46 2008ƀ3ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71szligːǨTHORNoumlsup3Ś1ļ+ ĎȲ47 ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71 2008ƀƄ3szligːǨTHORNoumlLJŚOacute1ļ+ 2008ƀo1ŃnjampLJŚOacute

68

1ijŚG40)ampE-GʟĴ3Ouml3ư4ż`bl3szligaeligouml1ťSrYŋʢEgraveȉ

Kbrvbarntilde1ȪŚK˞ȨG (Cory and Schwabe 2009)E14 2008ƀƔĄ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ouml1DG˺4Ĵ˕źľ3˕ȴuumlbZĮ3amp˕Ċȗ3ntildeȣ˒İ10

)G (Schwabe et al 2009) mccedilǿ-4 100ͼǷƷKsup3ŚG3˺4 2008 ƀ1ʟĴ1ǃregɱ1-40ʸF

˖JHampȷń-4$Hˊɱ-40)ampͿmĀccedilǿ-42008ƀ1ƛ˞HampˇŹǷeumlɲɞK 75ͼsup3ŚG(Chadbourne and Parke 2009)3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ42008ƀ 10DZ3˕Ċȗ$31 100Έ200`bPnĽġHGǷ1DG˺]bnņŽ1ŀdivideampͿ3ƐKĖamp1ɫƧ-G (Chadbourne and Parke 2009 Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

(f) s_CcedilN3N9A ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3˞0ĔTHORNɅ41ͿǴŋʢG4źľ|b3Egraveȉ1ļ+oumlD

7aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3ł2Ϳɣɤʌdž3žĀ3ͿɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3dividełČ3 3ʍ͵-GʟĴ-4ouml RECł1DGĔTHORNĸĻD7źľ1D)˒ɮ0)Gouml14ˠiacuteHGH0REC14ˇɯɱaumlɣė˃SrYotildeƎʻyacuteKŗGͿmccedilǿ-4ĹʗdivideſĹͶoumlɯEgraveȉ3LJŚOacute4 ǴɱŋʢEgraveȉouml REC3ǞKĠͿčźľEgraveȉouml3gtͿ1 RECKecircdivideampEgraveȉ3Oacute10Gsup3ŚGĎȲ482008ƀ3ͶoumlɯEgraveȉ3ſĹ4ʢ 419MWh582 oMWhͿLJŚHGĎȲ49Py˺Ǚɣɤʌdž42008 ƀ14ʢ 151 MWh210oMWhͿHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)Ś3Ƿ]bn3divideUgraveČ4 6ƀ˩ɩ-˖JHm-4 1Έ6ƀɶ1$HH 20ͼ32ͼ192ͼ115ͼ115ͼ3otildeĜ-UgraveČHGĎȲ50

(g) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3mĀccedilǿ-4==0mgfbKɥampɚ1eumlɥė˃0agraveɱǛKUacuteYacuteamp

1ʆampszlig3mgfb3bnKǷʒ3đʾǚɝ1ʆaRZn3ɚƙaRZn3Ɵ˃

Ʒ]bnʰƾ)ampŃǘ14Wiser and Bolinger 20093ecirc˘1E1˳˷ǥG

822 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

ɠķ=-3IʟĴ-4ĩɥˠȕ3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥAring40ƈˬ3aRZnA

0ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3Ľġ-4= 2012Έ2018ƀ1ĩɥȳͶoumlɯ3ɯaRZnȶȦĻƴ˗KɥǾȷųȫ-ɱ1˖JHG10GǴƒHGđʾ3amp-4currenƦHGȳ

ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKʆampʟĴ-ɥHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn4=œķ0

ampHE3LJŚOacute4 LCOEmccedilǿ1Ġ0

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ3ȳͶ4|b3aRZnDFAņˠȕ0A310FDFˍō0ͶȯKeumlɥamp

ė˃10GGAring5^idjkŵ-ȏ˪HGCape WindȳͶoumlɯaRZn-4Ͷ3^PcK 36 MWGɯ˘0Hamp (Cape Wind 2010)szligːǨ3ʜı4 3000ǨEʢ4800ǨLJŚHG (DOE 2008)

(b) ccedil-1 ȳͶoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4Ńuumlņ2000 ƀdegĄ5E4ğtimesğ1GʟĴȚŵ-NjȊH

GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn13ƀ3˺Ȇ1DH5Ʒ]bn4ʢ 3100 kW

ĎȲ48 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3 43ͼ3aRZnƯDzʿ4GʋƄ3ĩȐbZK10G=amp

oumllO[ƺƎʿA3bZKė˃ƟGHE3ƺƎʿ4 2008ƀ1ͶoumlɯˬOtildeşKǝamp17ͼTHORNamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)3ccedilǿ-42008ƀ3ǝˠͶoumlɯ3 50ͼKźľ|b3Egraveȉ0J(ĩȐEgraveȉͿȟF3 50ͼKǴɱŋʢEgraveȉsup3ŚG

ĎȲ49 2008ƀ3Egraveȉ1Gsup23sup3Ś4Wiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+A3-sup23Fsup3ŚG(1)ǴɱͶoumlɯŋʢEgraveȉoumlRECͿ= 515oMWh(2)čłbjnźľEgraveȉ =5oMWh(3)aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ = 5oMWh

ĎȲ50 3UgraveČ˩ɩ4ƀĄ53ƫAring1ļ+A3-2008ƀ 2009ƀ1eumlɥė˃)amp 50ͼĽŌUgraveČ4ʾƬ0

69

4300 okWͿ-H4notƔǘƀ1ƈˬcurrenŚHGaRZn1GOacute-GĎȲ51H1ť

US Offshore Wind Collaborative-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn4 3300kW4600okWͿ10GcurrenɂG (USOWC 2009)

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn=ɥH0ampʰƾ3currenƦ4˒ʄśƟG

ɯ˘HGmg40ʟĴȚŵ-NjȊHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ1G

ǰ3˟ʏF1DH5ʱ]bn4ʢ 137MWh19oMWhͿ10GĎȲ52

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯ3ɯD7ɥ1bZ˟=HF=ampɯBɥ3ʪA0amp

Ǝeacute3(4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bnaRZnDFA4G10GcurrenƦ

HGȳͶoumlaRZn3˺-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3cedilʭɱ0ƷưȠ0J(Igrave

middotʇͿ-40bZ˭şƄ3ƷưȠ0J(Ȥ3ˇŹǷͿeumlɥHGƝJHGAring5Ȥ

3ˇŹǷƷ1ƛ˞HGeumlɲɞ4ś˯Gƴ˗1 25Έ350GcurrenƦHG (Justice 2010)=ampʟǕƃ4ĩɥD7ǝɱaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗3$Hͳ-0Ouml1DGǷ˺KǓǎ

Gamp3˕OgraveTHORNIgrave˯KNjAEligG(EAȳƴ˗1ɥ-Gė˃ƟAGͿraquoɠ˖Ȱ-4

˕Igrave˯˩ɩ3˺3eumlɥė˃Ɵ0E71ɧ˻ʿ3ȉEHG (DOE 2010) ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɥė˃0|ŵ|3PdlOz4ȳͶoumlɯaRZ

n1Aeumlɥ-Gsup3ŚHGǕƃ3PdlOz14˫3 PTCɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČĠ=HGɚ1ǾȷųȫcopyņɃĸĻ3ŵ4ě3ʚĂ1GȳͶoumlɯaRZnKEuml

Gamp3==0ǞȰKeumlɥHE3aRZnKŨG (USOWC 2009)

(e) Q54Q1 ȳͶoumlɯ3ɚƙ1G˞0mgɅ4ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution

to US Electricity SupplyrdquoĽġǮ (DOE 2008)US Offshore Wind Collaborative3US Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo0E71ʟĴ3ȳͶoumlɯ1Gěʍ3Ľɯ˘ʗ-GraquoǰƔ3A314ȲƧƛ˞-G

Ugrave 8-3 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ53

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ54 ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 165 167 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ͷļǘ ļ 73 50 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ɯĎȲ55 szligːǨ 2891 3066 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1241 (1725) 1378 (1915) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʰƾ ijŚͿĎȲ56 eurokW ($kW) 50 (70) 50 (70) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʰƾ ŃuumlͿĎȲ57

euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (80) 58 (80) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

$3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆWiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ51 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ52 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ53 Yacute1ampD1]bn4szlig 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆ ĎȲ54 3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙ4ntildeʛ1ʆGȳͶoumlɯ4ʟĴ3 LCOEccedilǿ14Ġ0 ĎȲ55 eumlɥɞ 2007ƀ 33ͼ2008ƀ 35ͼsup3ŚG (Wiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) ĎȲ56 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampş|b3ʰƾ4 2007ƀ 2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG ĎȲ57 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampɯouml|b3ʰƾ42007ƀ2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG

70

(f) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 8-38-5 4ș1G LCOE ccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3sup3ŚKʆG]bn3sup3Ś4HA 2007 ƀ

2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1GA3-2008ƀƄ3o-˘GmD7ǞȰ3˳˷ǥ4Aring 1AumlKđɔHamp

Ugrave 8-4 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 100 100 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash WACC ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

Ǵ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ȰlaquoʌɞĎȲ58 ͼ 389 389 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FXnĎȲ59 $US 139 139 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆChadbourne and Parke 2009 Harper et al 2007 Schwabe et al 2009

Ugrave 8-5 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

oumlźľEgraveȉĎȲ60 euroMWh ($MWh) 382 (531) 419 (582) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

źľEgraveȉ˯ǥĎȲ61 euroMWh ($MWh)

˫1 Ġ=HG

˫1 Ġ=HG ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FITǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml |bͿĎȲ62

euroMWh ($MWh) 144 (200) 151 (210) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ 10 10 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 6 6 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆHarper et al 2007 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ58 LJŚHampǕƃŵǕƃ3ʌɞ4$HH 35ͼ 6ͼ-Gɏ1ɫƧ (Harper et al 2007)ŵʌ4ĔTHORNEdž

HGamp˜Ĝśucircʌɞ4 389ͼ-G ĎȲ59 szlig3]bn4 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆGamp2007ƀA 2008ƀA 2008ƀǶ3ɐǯnKɥamp

(Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ60 2007ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3EgraveȉˬŚ1Gsup3ŚAWiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+˥amp ĎȲ61 aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3LJŚͳKouml3źľEgraveȉ3˩ʙ1ĠG ĎȲ62 PTCnjʙOacute4 13frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORN

71

823 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯTHORNoumlvgKɥ2007 ƀ 2008 ƀ3 LCOE K˩ʙamp2008 ƀ3ʟĴ LCOE2008

ƀ3ʟĴ3sup3ŚKszligAumlɥͿKđɔb2008 ƀ3đɔb3szligsup3ŚKAumlɥͿȣamp$3ʫȁ4sup23F-G Ĵecirc3ěTHORNoumlŃǘKě3đɔb3sup3ŚEʟĴ3sup3Ś9ŀccedilɱ1degTHORNđɔbʟĴ3 LCOE

3Ÿɮ93ěŃǘ3ƐKLJŚ-GD1ampʟĴ3 LCOE 4 3 MWh4 oMWhͿ-đɔb3 LCOEDFAfrac12x 8-2đɔͿ

x 8-2 EcirczrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup363

(b) BL0+dj ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4ſĹˍō0Ͷȯ3ơƣKĖG-G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ|b3

aRZn-4ſĹ 3066 Ǩ3szligːǨǴƒHGđɔb-4 2628 ǨͿʟĴ-4aRZn3aeligouml0G LCOEđɔbDFAʢ 8MWh11oMWhͿfrac120G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAʢ 72 kW100o kWͿfrac120)G

2008ƀ3ſĹƷ]bn4đɔb 1449kW2029okWͿ-G31ťʟĴ-4 1378kW19195okWͿ-GǑĐ]bnͶoumlɯˬOtilde3ǑĐ]bnaRZn^Pn3ƘUcirc]bnĠ=HGͿ4szliggt3Ʒ]bn1Ġ=HGsup3ŚHGƕ)ʟĴ-4Ʒ]bnfrac12

G1HLCOEđɔbDFAʢ 2MWh3oMWhͿfrac120G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3˺]bn4ˇŹǷ|amp2008ƀ4 100ͼͿ=ampđɔb-4

Ouml1DG˺KɥGampđɔbDFA0)G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯaRZn3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ75ͼͿ4đɔb3Oumleumlɲɞ55ͼͿDFA 200|`bPn0)G ʟĴ-4ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 2007 ƀE 2008 ƀ1ŀdivideampH4ǕĊȗ1DFƕǽ3ǷƷŞ

ĎȲ63 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

72

KŊ)ampamp-G (Schwabe et al 2009)H4=ampư0Egraveȉ3frac34Ŗ)ampreg3ʊʌdžƷAĝȓ3ơƣKƖEHGD1GʟĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY3ʌdžǕʘ3Ɵ1DGA3-3Ǖʘ1DF 2007ƀ1ʢ 6ͼ3eumlɲNjAEligHHȇƉƷeumlɲɞ3KŚG10)amp (Chadbourne and Parke 2007)ʟĴ3˺]bn0GʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 8MWh11oMWhͿ0G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAfrac120)Gʰƾ4ijŚG4Ńuuml-˘-

G3ampđɔb3ȣ-4ŃuumlǼacute-˘ampnjʙćǛ3LJŚOacuteampʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJ

Śʱͳ4 7MWh10oMWhͿđɔb3 13MWh18oMWhͿK4G1Į)ampraquoĽġ1DH5ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯɤȐ4ʰƾʚɡ]bn3˟ʏF1G˞˹Ͳ1ɠķAɷFĽ

ġHampmg4Ǩřszlig-Gamp3LJŚOacute4ƪ1˥Gƛ˞G =ampʰƾ4aRZn3ˠȕũ0G1Hfrac12G˯ƻAG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

HAʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJŚͳđɔbȣfrac120)G3į-GʟĴ3aR

Zn3ˠȕ4đɔbDFAņampͿ=ampʟĴ3ʰƾ4ǝˠaRZn14=DzucircIgrave

˯Ǵatilde-Gamp1ʵĥHGė˃ƟGʟĴ3ʰƾfrac120GʟĴ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFAʢ 6MWh8oMWhͿfrac120G

(f) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4Ƿ]bn˺]bnG4szliggt3ʰƾ1Ġ=HGƦŚHGamp

ʟĴ3ccedilǿ-4ecircmĀ0reg3]bn14ʡʭɥʿ1DGfrac12ĶPob (LVRT) ˞acuteG4ɑucircouml]bnʗGN`^wbǛ4ż4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɷDž˹

HG40

(g) uumljfrac14divideWocirceumlCcediloslash Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ]bn4đɔbDFA0)GHE3Ǖʘ1

41ͿȰlaquoʌɞ2ͿȰlaquo˹ʌƯƖE3eumlőǓƱdžĠ=HGʟĴ3DzucircȰlaquoʌɞ389Ϳ4đɔb30ͿDFA$3amp LCOE0)GE1Ƿ1DG 100˺K˟L-GampʟĴ3 LCOE ˹ʌƯƖ3eumlőǓƱdž1D)ȿͳHG40ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFAʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ0)G

824 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj3˩ʙ1DFʟĴ3ĔTHORNŃǘouml RECͿ3OacuteKͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘȣGyacuteYj4=ĔTHORNǕʘAͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘKĠ

1˩ʙș1ĔTHORNŃǘ3gtKĠauml˩ʙGǰƔ1auml7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘKĠ˩

ʙG3ŀccedilsup3Ś1DFͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘ1ťGĔTHORN3ɸťɱEgraveOacuteKǥE1amp x 8-34ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘĔTHORN3ŃǘKȣHE 23D1ʟĴ3 LCOE

KȒƭGKʆampA3-G2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3 LCOEʢ 41MWh57oMWhͿ4ĔTHORNɅouml REC3łͿ-JHGʢ 24MWh33oMWhͿ4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHGPTCUgraveČ˩ɩ3divideͿotildeĜ-˘0EʟĴ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 24ĔTHORN-ȟF3 3ccedil3 14ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHG

73

x 8-3 Ecirczs_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup364

825 aringmH7B

ʟĴ3mĀccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash1 MWhndash1 oMWhͿ-G3EʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4aRZnɯ1ƛ˞HGyacute˞acuteKɄamp31ăccedil0Xj`

yKĔTHORND7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOzȉGľĜͿEƖG10G34

PTCżǨDzucirc-)amp 2005Έ2009ƀ3ƀͶoumlˬOtildeş3ʯɱ˫EAǥE-GH41ƀŨTHORNş4 PCT]bnɑucirc10)ampǨ1˒ȿŪG (AWEA2009)ĎȲ65

83 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+

ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ƀƞ1ƼņGH4Ͷȯż1ˍō-]bnȣɱfrac12ĔTHORN

Ʌăccedil1F=ampľĜ1D)4Dzɲ0ǕʘPdlOzKeumlɥ-GE-GʟĴ1Gɠķ=

-3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn4HA-śǟHampʟĴeacute0GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯ

EHGʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bn4ˊ1đɔbDFAfrac12H4SrYaeligouml

ņǷ]bnʰƾfrac121DGͶoumlɯ1GǕƃ3ǕʘPdlOzȜ

Ɖ1˴ŚHamp-Ĵatilde3Ņ3szlig-401AͿ3ɯaRZnEumlHG10)amp

E-GĔTHORNǕʘ3PdlOz3ɸiexclucircȁ1DFͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ3yacuteYj4lte10

)G

Ugrave 8-6 EcirczIumlsectpsup366

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

58 (81)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

60 (83)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

ndash1 (ndash1) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ĎȲ64 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ65 x 8-1đɔ ĎȲ66 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

74

rOtildemiddot

AWEA (2010) ldquoUS Wind Energy Industry Breaks All Records Installs Nearly 10000 MW in 2009 Manufacturing

Investment Jobs Still Lagrdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) news release January 26 2010 at httpwwwaweaorgnewsroomreleases01-26- 10_AWEA_Q4_and_Year-End_Report_Releasehtml

AWEA (2009) ldquoAmerican Wind Energy Association Annual Wind Industry Report Year Ending 2008rdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) at httpwwwaweaorgpublicationsreportsAWEA-Annual-Wind-Report-2009pdf

Bolinger M (2010) ldquoRevealing the Hidden Value that the Federal Investment Tax Credit and Treasury Cash Grant Provide to Community Wind Projectsrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL-2909E January 2010 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreportslbnl-2909epdf

Capewind (2010) ldquoCape Wind Signs Agreement to Buy Siemens 36-MW Offshore Wind Turbinesrdquo Cape Wind (Capewind) news release March 31 2010 at httpwwwcapewindorgnews1086htm

Chadbourne and Parke (2009) ldquoTrends in Tax Equity for Renewable Energyrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke January 2009 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication810dde60-3c78-4a9a-9c5d- a5fae8014b4fPresentationPublicationAttachment51fc06c5-1407-48ac-9dff- a605de0f58e1pfn0109pdf

Chadbourne and Parke (2007) ldquoThe Tax Equity Marketrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke April 2007 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication572b04b4- 905e-48e1-8f6b-0f520c4f2615PresentationPublicationAttachment573bdc6c-ff85-4f99-b4d0- 25a845907bccpfn0407pdf

Cory K Schwabe P (2009) ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financing Input Variablesrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL TP-6A2-46671 October 2009 at httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

DOE (2010) ldquoGeneral Loan Guarantee Program Frequently Asked Questionsrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) accessed April 2010 at httpwwwlgprogramenergygovfaq2htm

DOE (2008) ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution to US Electricity Supplyrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2008 at httpwww20percentwindorg

EIA (2009) ldquoAnnual Energy Outlook 2010 Early Release with Projections to 2030rdquo US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration (EIA) website accessed February 2010 at httpwwweiadoegovoiafaeoexcelaeotab_16xls

102Federal Reserve (2010) ldquoHistorical Rates for Euro Areardquo Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System website accessed February 2010 at httpwwwfederalreservegovreleasesh10histdat00_euhtm

GE (2010) ldquo15 MW Wind Turbine Technical Specificationsrdquo GE Energy (GE) website accessed April 2010 at httpwwwgepowercomprod_servproductswind_turbinesen15mwspecshtm

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review amp Comparative Analysisrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports63434pdf

Justice S (2009) ldquoPrivate Financing of Renewable Energy ndash A Guide for Policymakers UNEP Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative Bloomberg New Energy Finance Chatham House December 2009 at httpwwwchathamhouseorgukfiles15542_1209_financeguidepdf

Schwabe P Cory K Newcomb J (2009) ldquoRenewable Energy Project Financing Impacts of the Financial Crisis and Federal Legislationrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory technical report NRELTP-6A2-44930 July 2009 at

75

httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti44930pdf

USOWC (2009) ldquoUS Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo US Offshore Wind Collaborative (USOWC) October 2009 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreports63434pdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2009) ldquo2008 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2009 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports2008-wind-technologiespdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2008) ldquoAnnual Report on US Wind Power Installation Cost and Performance Trends 2007rdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy May 2008 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs43025pdf

76

Uograve AĂsup1agraveUumlaacute

shyocircMQ+Q

BL0+para

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

aRZn3gPn Project title

aRZnĞregĴ3QOo

yMȣGamp AringΆoPk3đɔQOoyM13

aRZn3ʍ͵ Project type

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ʍ͵ A4ȳ

Ͷļǘ Number of wind turbines

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

Ͷʱǘ$EěĴ3ɡ˼

3ſĹɱQOoyMͿ

ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

Śȉaeligouml Rated power

Ͷ 1ļ3Śȉaeligouml ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

gɷƑ Rotor diameter

Ͷ3gɷƑ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

ĖͶʏ Swept area

gͶKĖGszligʏ m2-˘˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

tz Hub height

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ƚĸɏ3ſĹ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽraquotz

3ſĹͶƀɯouml4ɷDž

EcircGͿ tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ

Lond term average wind speed at hub height

tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

Ȝģɯouml Net electricity production

QOoyM3ƀſĹȜ

ģɯouml szligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

ƺʌouml Tax capability

iacute΄ɑiacute ćɜ3aRZn3ľĜ

4ʌiacuteUacuteʘKszligeumlɥ-GͿG4

ˣmiddotʇKƾ3ľĜ4ˣmiddotʇ

Ǝ˲ƀƄ3ʌdžKszligDzucirc1eumlɥ-

GͿ4_Ƹ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4

Ĵʌ΄ʌ3gt1ɥHGŵʌBĸ

Ǟʌ4ńͿ Currency

szlig]bnĔTHORNPdlOz

ʗ3 2007ǫƀ 2008ǫƀ3$HHdeg˘ɱ0ǡ $HH 2007ƀ 12DZ 3ǡ 2008ƀ12DZ 31ǡͿ3ȣ1ļ+1ˬŚ

ijŚƀ]bnćfrac14 Fixed annual costs unit

ijŚʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kW

Ńuumlƀ]bnćfrac14 Variable annual costs unit

ƀʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kWh

ccedil-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ͷ Wind turbine

ͶD7ɯ˙ʹ3Yacute˖Ʒ

]bn ggtzgĖ

oPznPKƿʆGPy

YN~jZb`blxj

i`blzX`blpdt

77

Qa[ɯȗgzoͶ

ɥŃĶĬraraquoļʅG4ʡʭDž

ʯ4Ġ=reg-ƲͿ Ͷ3 Wind turbine transportation

ͶK˛ŶľEaRZ

nɯ^Pn1$1ˬ

ʹ-GD1Gamp3]b

n

Ͷ3aRZn^Pn93Křpound

Gamp1ɥEHG΄n

jZ]bnD7Z3]bnK

Ġ Ͷ3ˬʹ Wind turbine installation

aRZnƈˬǴ3Ͷ

3ˬʹ]bn ƈˬ3Z3]bnKĠ

ũ˩ΆͶ3]bn Sub-total wind turbine cost

Ͷ 3ļsup23]bn3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ļʅ Foundations

QOoyM1ƛ˞0ļʅ

3ʱ]bn ]Zn$3regQOoyM

3ěͶKǓG31ƛ˞0ȒǓȅK

Ġ Ȓatildeʡʭ Internal grid

QOoyM3ŃƯ93

Džʯ1ƛ˞0QOoyM

atilde3ȥʡʭ

QOoyMatilde3szlig3ʳQO

oyM3ŃƯ=-D7ŃƯ

3ʳKĠͿŃƯ1ʡɏDF

ntilde1ʡʭʡŃĶĬGľĜ4$3Ń

ĶĬ=-3szlig3ʳKĠ1șiacuteƗɯ`blKuziacuteƗGamp1ˬʹ

HampiacuteƗ˙ʹͿ3]bnKĠƯDzʿ

D7Ͷ˛brvbarȐʿ1ǖB˿ġKcedilamp

FͶKǒAcirc1DFuumlD7Ocirc

țampFɥʭ˩OacuteKƵǍGamp3

ɴˡiacuteƗ`bl (SCADA)G4QOoyMɴˡ`bl3ˬʹKĠ

ʡʭʡ[jo]o3

Ɇƻ Grid connection grid code compliance

QOoyM3ʡʭʡ1

ƛ˞0ŃĶĬǠœ3oumlʡʭ

-ƛ˞HGȥʡʭ

QOoyMEʡʭ=-3ʳ

0[jo]oɆƻ3amp1ȨE

HGegrave3divideɱ˙ʹĠ=HGQO

oyMʡʭʡŃĶĬKĠ˜ǘ3

ŃƯKDzGľĜʡʭʡŃĶĬ

ʡʭ3ʳ3gtKĠ ʡʭŀƍ Grid reinforcement

˄Ƌ0ʡʭ-4QOoyM

3ʡ3ampʡʭ3reg3ccedil

3ĶʤKG1DF

ʡʭKŀƍGė˃ƟG

Ǡœ3ʡʭ3ŀƍ1ƛ˞0˙ʹ

ŀƍdivideɱiacuteƗ$3reg3macrdivideɱ˙ʹKĠ

Ϳ

ŃƯ Substations and transformer station

ʡʭʡŃĶĬˇiquestD7$H

=-3ĂKĠampQOoy

M3ʡʭatilde1Gszlig3

ŃƯ3]bn

ʡʭ93ʡĸɏ=-ǜĬD7ǜ

ĬKĠŃĶĬ4ĶKǤĶGȥ

ȗĬ-GL3Ͷ4aeligoumlKʡ

ʭĶ1ǤĶGŃĶĬKDzG ũ˩Άȥʡʭ Sub-total electrical netgrid

ȥʡʭ1G˫ 4 ɶ3ũ˩

˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ˴˯ Certification

ʡʭʡG1amp)QO

oyMK˴˯Gamp3]

bn

˴˯Hampˬ˩IJ3]bnD7QOo

yM3ś3ƈˬK3ˬ˩IJȣ

G]bnKĠ ɢĿ˺Ȇ Environmental survey

QOoyM3ɯȠ-

ƛ˞10GɢĿ˺Ȇ3ʱͳH

4ěĴ3ɢĿƐ˰EgraveǮ3acirciquest

ɱ0˞acute1˟G-G

ȩȃ3ė˃ƟɊɇograveʗͿ ͷ|3LJŚ Ǫˤ93ˡˢɱƐ ɣɣəD7ɣƩʡ93ƈˬD7 3Ɛ ɚŚ3ͻ˓˔3ɴˡ `oQyjV3Oslash

Pysup2ń3ɯ]bn

3ũ˩ Non-infrastructure development subtotal

˫3Pysup2ń3aR

Znɯ3˫ 2ɶ3ʱ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

78

ʰƾˬOtilde OampM facilities

ʰƾȐyacute3˖1ƛ˞0

D7ǟˬKǝamp1ƈˬG

]bn

Ͷ3ƈˬ14aRZn3ˀ

ɥƀǘ3ʰƾgzo3

ɏȏ]bnD7ņĺĦ3ordfnj]bn $3reg Miscellaneous

˫3aRZnɯ]bn

1Ġ=H0$3regegrave3

]bn

3ĵĸƯDzʿ93˚Ugrave

ntilde3eumlőǓƱ Interest payment before operation

aRZnŐntilde1ǓƱ

ƛ˞10Geumlő3ʱͳ ż4ƈˬȠ3OumlD7Ͷ3Ͱ

ǓƱ3amp33Ńǘ4 1Έ2ƀatilde3yacuteŃǘ-G3Xj`y

mŐHGɥeacuteƀƄ1

4ntilde-ǓƱ]bnG reg3aRZnɯ]b

n3ũ˩ Sub-total other project development costs

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫frac14ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0

ľĜʱͳ-˘

aRZnƷ]bn3

ʱͳ Total project investment costs

˫ɯɶũ˩3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

q-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǑĐbZjEgraveͳK

Ϳ Decommisioning excl scrap value

ļʅKĠQOoyMK

ĵĸEǑĐG31˞G]

bn

QOoyMD7egrave3Py

ZʗͿ3˥iquestǑĐə

$3regegrave3ƛ˞0Ǖƃ˯ǥǮ3Acircƭ]b

n ĵĸ3ˇɓɛƩ93ĮƘ Returning the land to the natural state

ĵĸ3ɠɛĮƘ3amp3]bn aRZnřpoundamp1ɯɣ

bZjEgraveͳ Scrap value

ǑĐǨ3bZjǺǛ3łČ

EgraveOacute ʳʗaumleumlɥG4bZj

łČ-Gė˃Ɵ3GQOoyM

3ǺǛ ȜģǑĐ]bn Net decommissioning costs

˫ɶ3ʱͳ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

BL0+igraveeacute Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǨszligːǨmO

nKͿ Operational time full load hours excluding derate

szligːǨ4QOoyM

3ſĹƀɯoumlK$3

Śȉaeligouml-ampOacute-G

H4szligːǨ3Ĝ˩-F˩ɩɱ

D7˩ɩń3ʰƾʚɡ3amp3OcircțǨK

ĠszligːǨŅŚamp^P

n1GQOoyM3ɯouml

AŀdivideG szligːǨ3mOn Derate of full load hours

QOoyMʎOslash

0Ǩ ɼȧʗ1DGOcircț3amp3ɯouml

3ǏŊKĠ ȜģǨȜģszligːǨ

Net operational timefull load hours

ǨszligːǨEmO

nKƊampǨ ȜģǨ3Ĝ˩KĠG0J(m

OnKĠGͿ

ˀɥƀǘ Economic life

ƦŚHGaRZn3ˀɥ

ƀǘ3ǴaRZn]

bn3ʱͳKĮĔ0H50

E0Ϳ

AringaRZnKʮʯɥG-

ƦŚHampˀɥƀǘsup21ăccedilʎOslash-

GɛƩ1)ampAaRZn

3ȟœˀɥƀǘ4egraveĠ0 ]bn˩ʙ3amp3˩ɩť

Ǵ Time horizon for cost

LCOE˩ʙ3ť0GǴ _OacuteKTHORNouml0ľĜ4myTn

ˬŚ1DFˀɥƀǘ1ˬŚG

79

calculations

aringm Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ǵ Loan duration

ȽǴ3Ĝ˩ ͰD7eumlőǓƱKĠ

― źľeuml Loan - market interest rate

euml3Oacute43ư1D)

ŃJG OgraveTHORN3otildeĜ-˘]bn

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml3ƖEHG Oumleumlɲɞ Return on debt

Ǵ1ȢƀƖEHG

euml ȢƀƖEHGeuml

ƛ˞HGǷeumlɲɞź

ľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivideʙ

KͿ Required return on equity excl market volatility risk adder

QOoyM3ǷƷŞ

ȨGeumlɲɞ Ƿ1Geumlɲ3otildeĜ

źľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivide

ʙ Market volatility risk adder

ʕyenɱźľ1đdivideǷeumlɲɞ

KGdividebZKƵǍG

KɶɱampA3

źľ1GcurrenƦń3ŃuumlbZKʾƬ

Gamp1divideʙGotildeĜ

ƛ˞HGƷǷ3Ȝ

ģeumlɲɞ Net required return on investment equity

ɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZ

nƷŞ93ǷeumlɲɞǷƷ

ŞȨGźľŃuumlƟ3b

ZKĠͿ

Ƿeumlɲɞźľ3ŃuumlƟKʾƬG

ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKƵǍGamp mZ-ɥė ˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ƿ3otildeĜĸUcircǷ3ƯDz

ȖKͿ Equity share excl local equity ownership

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp1ƻaeligGǷ3otilde

Ĝ

ͶǓƾ˙ʹPyʚɡ˺

ʗ3]bnKamp1ƷGǷ3

ʱͳ

Ƿ3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Total equity share

ĸUcirc3Ƿ3ƯDzȖ0E71ʱ

Ʒ]bn ˺]bnK

amp1ƻaeligGǷ3otildeĜ3

Ĝ˩

ĸUcircD7ĸUcircsup2ń3ƷŞNjAEligamp

Ƿ3ʱͳ

Ouml3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Debt share

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp3Ouml3otildeĜ THORNoumlGǷ3otildeĜ1ļ+˩ʙOacute

aRZn3ʱ]bn 100EǷ3otildeĜKƊampOacuteͿ

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate- municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠǘOacute

4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ȝģʌɞ Net tax rate

ǕƃĸǞŵǕƃ3Ȱlaquoʌ

ɞ3Ĝ˩ -˘ʆǕƃźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

80

shy MQ+Q

oacute-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

˛ȐʿNjAEligGʰƾʚ

ɡ]bn Manufacturer-provided maintenance

eacuteƀƄG4$3Ɣ1divide]

bn0-˛ȐʿNjAEligG

ʰƾʚɡ]bn

3]bn4żQOoyM3ˬʹ

]bn1Ġ=HGampeacuteǴ4e1

0G4-G

atildebgjy1DG˩ɩɱ

ʰƾʚɡ]bn Scheduled maintenance by internal staff

aRZnƯDzʿ3bgjy

1DGŚǴɱ0QOoyM

3ʰƾʚɡ]bn

bgjy1DGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

ń^wbŋʢ External service contracts

reg3˻Ȑʿ1DGŚǴɱ0Q

OoyM3ʰƾʚɡ]b

n

˻brvbarȐʿDGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

]bn Operation costs

QOoyM3ɥ1ƛ˞

0ƀ]bn SCADA KĠQOoyM3ƴ˗ɱɥ3amp3]bn-ʚɡ]bn-40

H14ecirc˷ǥͿǘOacuteȥcurren

ɂ3]bnKĠ ɏȏ Inspections

Ͷɏȏ3amp˻ȐʿK

ˇʇ-A˫3^wb˻

Ȑʿ-A0ľĜͿ

gzo3Ľġ2~4ƀȢͿĦ3ƴ˗ɏȏͶ 1 ļampF 2 ƀȢ1 1 ǡͿKĠɏȏ3ǨȂ4kW |b

-ˬŚ ˩ɩń3Icircɡ Unscheduled repairs

˩ɩń3Icircɡʰƾʚɡ ˙ʹ3ǖŇȥɛȯ$3reg3ńį1DG

ʰƾijŚͿũ˩ OampM costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ OampM costs variable subtotal

˫3Ńuumlʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝͳ-˘ ʚɡ Administration

QOoyM3ʚɡ

D7ɴɽ3]bn ʬƈəˇuumlD7ɗǛͿʗKĠ

Igrave Insurance

QOoyM$33

bZD7$3Ɛ1OtildeG

amp1ǓƱƀIgraveǛ

uumlɤIgraveǏŝUgraveuacuteɍ˚UgraveD7ɢĿ

)ampQOoyM1ɷDžEcirc

Gegrave3Igrave

ʡʭǛ Grid charges

ʡʭ93ʡ0E71ɥKǓ

ǎG31ƛ˞HGƀǛ

_4HKş|b3]bn

G4SrY]bnTHORNouml

G-G ʡʭ3]bnijŚͿ Grid costs fixed

˫3ʡʭǛ

ʡʭ3]bnŃuumlŃuumlͿ Grid costs variable

˫3ʬ˺ʛ]bn

^Pn3 Site lease

QOoyMKˬʹampĵ

ĸ3ƯDzʿ1ǓƱʱͳ Ͷ 1 ļ1macrǓƱľĜAʱͳ-ǓƱľĜAʱ]bn-THORNouml

G ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

aRZnşƀ

kWͿ1ļ+aRZnǓƱƀʌͳ

ͼ|b3ʌ4˫3Z`n-ƀ

șŃuuml30ŃǘTHORNoumlG

1ȲƧ-4ş|b3ʌKʆ

$3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG ȸouml Electricity consumption

ouml3ˇŹȸ ʡʭ3ĝǴD7ɯƯ3uumlʗ3amp

_4HEKş|bG4

SrY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ɢĿɂŚ˰Egraveʗ Environmental measurements evaluations etc

QOoyM3˴ė0E7

1KʰƾG31ƛ˞0ƀ

ɢĿɂŚ˰Egrave

_4HEKş|bG4Sr

Y]bnTHORNoumlG-

G

81

reg3ƀ]bnijŚͿũ

˩ Other annual costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚɢĿɂŚǛ

ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ Other annual costs variable subtotal

˫3oumlȸ]bn

ƀ]bnijŚͿ Annual costs fixed

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ƀ]bnŃuumlͿ Annual costs variable

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘

Ts_-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ƀźľđdivide]bn Annal market participation fee

ʕyenɱoumlźľ1đdivideGamp

3ƀ]bn źľɥʿʡʭɥʿ1ǓƱ

ʬ˺Ǚ]bn Balancing costs

ͶoumlɯKěǨ1oumlʡ

ʭ1DžʯGamp3]bnʱͳ

aeligoumlcurrenɂ1Gś3ŀccedil]

bn

kW]bn4ȜƉ0ʬ˺ǙźľKG43]bnouml3źľ

Egraveȉ1Ġ=HGampccedilG3İ

0ľĜAG_4HE3]bn

Kş|b3]bnG4S

rY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ŋʢ]bnĕƊǛʗͿ Contract costs (transaction fees etc)

ŋʢ3ʰƾ1ƛ˞0ƀǓƱͳ kWh-˘ĕƊǛ

reg3]bn3ʱͳ Subtotal other costs

źľđdivide]bnʬ˺Ǚ]b

nŋʢ]bn3Ĝ˩

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKşǦ1GĽ

Ō kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƟʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źľoumlEgraveȉ Market price electricity

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

ƀſĹźľoumlEgraveȉ kWh

źľ˯ǮEgraveȉ Market price certificates

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ3

ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kWhǕʘ1DFG4źľ|b-ˬŚHGľĜGǘOacute4ecirc

THORNoumlG FITĔTHORN Feed-in tariff revenue

FIT1DGĔTHORN ż4aR

Zn]bn3ǓƱ3amp3ŀ

ccedilǓƱŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞK

ʄIgraveG31Auml ouml3źľEgrave

ȉKĠľĜAG

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐKŐampƀƄ1

ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlHG

reg3ĔTHORN3ʱͳ Subtotal other revenues

˫3reg3ĔTHORN3Ĝ˩

Ccedil ― shyocircocirc

shyocirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ʌƊntildedž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as a before-tax credit

ʌƊntilde

3ʌdž1ťGntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊntilde

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGʌ|b3ntildeƱ˚

ugrave3otildeĜHĝ otildeĜaRZ

n3ʱͳoͿG4ˬOtildeşampF

3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ

82

|b3PdlOz4aRZn1

DGʌƊntilde1ɥHGƕ)aR

Zn1ťEgraveOacuteaRZn3eacute

ƀ3˹ʌͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3

ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜaRZnG

G4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3

ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ

4_Ƹ-Gʌdž4Ĵ

ʌ13gtɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ

|-40Ϳ ʌƊƔdž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave AringΆUgraveČͿ Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as an after-tax deduction (eg depreciation)

ʌƊƔ

3ʌdž1ļ+ntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊƔ

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGYacute˖ʌdžH

ĝ otildeĜaRZn3ʱͳoͿ

G4ˬOtildeşampF3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ|b3Pdl

Oz4aRZn1DGʌƊƔ1ɥ

HG3ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜa

RZnGG4aRZn

ƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-G

ˣmiddotʇKƾ4_Ƹ-G

ʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥHGƕ

)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront cash investment subsidy

aRZnszligiquest1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ aRZnƷ]bnʱͳ1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml-3Ƚė˃ ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKǁGamp mZ-ɥė˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

shyl Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

kW-ʆHGƀʌͳ ȢƀǓƱD7ƀșŃuumlGş

|b3ʌͳ FITĔTHORNAringΆɯouml|b3PdlOzͿ Feed-in tariff revenue (eg production based incentives)

FIT G4ɯouml|b3PdlOz1DGĔTHORN

ż4aRZn3]bnK

31˞ȨHGŀccedilǓƱ1

ŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞKdivideampOacute

ouml3źľEgraveȉKdivideGľĜA

G

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐɱɥKŐampƀƄ

1ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǨCcedilœǛiacuteƄKɥ

GĴoPkʗͿ4ƀ3ǘOacuteAring

$HƀK Ś0

AͿKTHORNoumlG FITǕʘǴ Feed-in tariff policy period

FIT G4ɯ˚ugraveǓƱJHGʱǨ

aRZn1ƦŚHGʪȽɱƕŎǴ

K0ʜı3Ǵɮ0H5 FIT3ǓƱ|Aɮ0)Gė˃Ɵ

83

GFIT ǕʘǴ3Ĝ˩OacuteK1THORNoumlG

ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž Production-based before-tax credits

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b30J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊntilde

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊntilde|

b-aRZn1ɥH

G

aRZn3ʌǓƱntilde1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGɯouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿƕ)aRZn1ťEgraveOacuteņaRZneacuteƀ3˹ʌ

ͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteK

ĖGćɜaRZnGG

4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDz

ucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gt

ɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40

Ϳ ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž3ǕʘǴ Production-based before-tax credit policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHGǴ

3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɯ|b3ʌƊƔdž Production-based after- tax deductions

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b0J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊƔ

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊƔ|

b-aRZn1ɥHG

aRZn3ʌǓƱƔ1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKĖGćɜaRZnGG4

aRZnƯDzʿĝƀƄ3ʌdžKDzucirc

1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥ

HGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ɣɤļɵ3džʌƊƔͿ

ǕʘǴ Production-based after- tax deductions policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHG

Ǵ3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power bonus

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKEumlGamp

3ĽŌ kWh

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƄʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWh

źľEgraveȉ˯Ǯ Market price certificates

źľG4Ǖƃ3Ǖʘ1D)

ˬŚHampQOoyM

3aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ

3ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kW_4ɮ0Gźľ-0J(ěʍ3źľEgraveȉ-Ϳłamp3˯

Ǯ3ȼĜdivideſĹźľEgraveȉKTHORNoumlG

divideUgraveČ Accelerated Depreciation

OtildeĦ3ͳK˺middot˩D

7ʌťʘUgraveČG˩ɩ ěƀƄ3UgraveČͳ4ɤ3ˀɥƀǘ3eacuteǴD

FBBƀ|b-eacuteǴƷʱͳ

3ͼˬŚG UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

3m-4_aRZn3

EgraveOacuteKUgraveČGƀƄ$3UgraveČɞKŚʻ

GșƀƄsup2ȢƀȟͳKUgraveČGǞȰK

ɥGĴ-4_UgraveČ˩ɩEgrave

ͳKdegɡȖ˖Auml1D)˟ʏG

dj

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

yacuteYj Financial gap

aRZn3˺1ƛ˞

HGyacuteYj ʱ]bn˺]bnͿEƛ˞

HGǷeumlɲɞ93Ʒ1ƛ˞0ĔTHORN

PdlOzKƊampOacute ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave Levelized electricity generation cost

QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘ

1QOoyM-ɣɤH

amp kWh3ɠķ3ǡſĹ]bn

szlig3]bnKĠƷaumlƷ

ʰƾͿĔTHORNPdlOz˺]

bnĹʗĀĎEgrave4otildeƊɞͶ3ˀɥƀ

ǘKɥ˩ʙ

• 表紙13
• 要旨13
• 目次13
• 第1章 7ヶ国の風力発電の財務コスト13
• 第2章 デンマーク13
• 第3章 ドイツ13
• 第4章 オランダ13
• 第5章 スペイン13
• 第6章 スウェーデン13
• 第7章 スイス13
• 第8章 米国13
• 付録A 変数および用語解説13

v

v h

` iii

| 1 72NCtE 1

11 1 12 vu]k 1 13 CtO~FH 2 131 GKUƃū 132 copy=mMmSlt] 133 AringƧigrave 134 LCOEcTjƏĎ 135 cTjiquestĚŋGmM^U 136 LCOE FGƈţ 14 IDN6Ct 6 15 QK$4 s 6 16 JN$ZTLCOEIn4 6 17 LCOESNj 8 18 IDNm6Ct 11 19 9 LCOE]k 13 110 LECOEBXqj 13 111 14

| 2 $1+4 16

21 $1+4Ctf 16 211 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 212 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 22 $1+4 2008Wu13Ct) 19 221 ƶrƽŊƻ 222 ĴrƽŊƻ 223 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 224 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 23 $1+4Ct) 25

| 3 amp 28

31 ampCtf 28 311 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 312 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 32 ampu1363m6Ct) 30 321 ƶrƽŊƻ 322 ĴrƽŊƻ

vi

323 V=Rƶr^lJEUǀ2008THORNǁsectĺFpKGKUĮƛ 324 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 325 copy133+ăĂbBXLa 326 ƔDdQ^ 33 34

| 4 -1 36

41 -1Ctf 36 411 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 412 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 42 -1u13Ct) 37 421 ƶrƽŊƻ 422 ĴrƽŊƻ 43 -1Ct)McpY 39 431 AhmOƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ 432 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 433 copyăĂbBXLa 434 ƔDdQ^ 44 41

| 5 1 43

51 1Ctf 43 511 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 512 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 52 1 2008Wu13Ct) 46 521 ƶrƽŊƻ 522 ĴrƽŊƻ 523 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 524 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 525 ƔDdQ^ 53 1Ct) 50

| 6 4$1 52

61 4$1Ctf 52 611 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 612 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 62 4$1u13Ct) 53 621 ƶrƽŊƻ 622 ĴrƽŊƻ 623 KgtpTmƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ 624 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 625 ƔDdQ^ 63 4$1Ct) 57

| 7 60

71 Ctf 59

vii

711 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 712 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 72 u13Ct) 60 721 ƶrƽŊƻ 722 ĴrƽŊƻ 73 Ct)McpY

61

731 GKUĮƛ 732 copyăĂbBXLa 733 ƔDdQ^ 73 63

| 8 N 65

81 NCtf 65 811 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 812 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 82 N 2008Wu13Ct) 66 821 ƶrƽŊƻ 822 ĴrƽŊƻ 823 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 824 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 825 ƔDdQ^ 83 NCt) 73

A Rr 76

viii

L5

ordm 1-1 ƽŊƻGKU ordm 1-2 ƔDdQ^ī6copy=mMmSlt]amp36ŊƻGKUŐĭ ordm 1-3 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14ŊƻƻƬǀƓżĐưǁ9sup2űĞ ordm 1-4 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14divideƖGKU9sup2űĞ ordm 1-5 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14Ƥƚųugraveƕ9sup2űĞ ordm 1-6 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14ƖƭƐƥGKU9sup2űĞ ordm 1-7 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14Ĥntildeƃū9sup2űĞ ordm 1-8 shyfrac14xƃGKU[hbpN LCOEacircƼ ordm 2-1 Tm`pEƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 2-2 TmsectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 2-3 Tm`pEƢŨGKUGKUƨcTj ordm 2-4 Tm`pEcopyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 3-1 V=RTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 3-2 V=RƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 3-3 V=RƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 4-1 AhmOTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 4-2 AhmOsectĺFpKĮƛordm ordm 4-3 AhmOƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 5-1 K_=mTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 5-2 ƅĈƭKCpathornř ordm 5-3 UacuteAacuteA^Igmamp136ĔŮǀUacuteAacuteĠǂAgraveEgraveƭǁ ordm 5-4 ƻyenUacuteAacuteamp136ƽŊƻETHƬǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 5-5 YacuteČƻ^pjĠAumlŀTHORNYacutefrac34ǀ2003Dž2009THORNǁ ordm 5-6 2008THORNampƊŵ7ƽƙH=LƋ ordm 5-7 K_=m133+sectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 5-8 K_=mcopy133+ƽŊƻąŢ=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 6-1 KgtpTmTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 6-2 KgtpTmƽŊƻGKU ordm 6-3 KgtpTmƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 7-1 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 7-2 K=KƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ ordm 7-3 K=KƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 8-1 Ŧfrac14THORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 8-2 Ŧfrac14133+sectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 8-3 Ŧfrac14copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ

ix

5

ƀ ES-1 ƶrƽŊƻfrac14 LCOEǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-1 ƽŊƻ^lJEUƖĚdivideƖGKUƃū ƀ 1-2 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻoumlſŋ[hbpNǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-3 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻƔ[hbpNǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-4 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻ LCOE FGǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-5 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEUoumlſŋ[hbpN ƀ 1-6 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEUƔ[hbpN ƀ 1-7 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEU LCOE133+ FG ƀ 1-8 aacuteŀ LCOEĊIJĮƛ ƀ 2-1 Tm`pEƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (MW) ƀ 2-2 Tm`pEƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW) ƀ 2-3 ƓżĐưampiquest FIT9deg06Z]ƿlpNŏatildeŊƻħETHƬʼn6 4ƽƙŐNtildeŋ

ƀ 2-4 ƓżĐưampiquest FIT9deg0Z]ƿlpNŏatildeŊƻħETHƬʼn6 4ƽƙŐNtildeŋ ƀ 2-5 Tm`pEƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 2-6 Tm`pEƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 2-7 Tm`pEƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ƀ 2-8 2007THORN 2008THORNTm`pEamp136ƽŊƻ LCOE0 ƀ 3-1 V=RŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-2 V=RTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-3 V=RƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 3-4 V=RƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 3-5 V=RƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 3-6 V=RűĞ0 ƀ 4-1 AhmOŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-2 AhmOĪsup2THORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-3 AhmOƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 4-4 AhmOƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 4-5 AhmOƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 4-6 AhmOűĞ0 ƀ 5-1 K_=mŬŜƊŵƬ (GW) ƀ 5-2 K_=mTHORNưOgraveƬ (GW) ƀ 5-3 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 5-4 K_=mƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 5-5 K_=mƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 5-6 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEU0 ƀ 6-1 KgtpTmŬŜƊETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-2 KgtpTmTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-3 Lillgrunden^lJEU ƀ 6-4 KgtpTmƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 6-5 KgtpTmƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 6-6 KgtpTmƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

x

ƀ 6-7 KgtpTműĞ0

ƀ 7-1 K=KŬŜƊETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-2 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-3 ƖƭƐƥGKUƈţ

ƀ 7-4 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 7-5 K=KƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 7-6 K=KƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

ƀ 7-7 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEU0

ƀ 8-1 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-2 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-3 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 8-4 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 8-5 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]

ƀ 8-6 Ŧfrac14űĞ0

1

Aring 1Auml 7Ozuumljfrac14dividearingm-1

11

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12 frac34frac12sup2

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2

13 uumljfrac14divideAElignp[

131 -1UacuteIgrave

Ͷoumlɯ3]bn˞ʥ4ǷƷ]bnʰƾD7˺]bn-GHEě

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KʻyacutemacrGĴAG

Ugrave 1-1 uumljfrac14divideBL0+ccedilyenccedil-1UacuteIgrave

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68-84 2-10 1-9 1-9 1-5 1-5 1-5 1-3

ndashndashndash 35-45 20-25 10-15 5-10 5-10 5-10 5-10

ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

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132 s_N3N9A

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3

x 1-1 uumljfrac14divide-1 ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

133 icirc

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ɗǛAEligʬ3ŘszligIgraveɗǛTHORN3ĴatildeɅ-3degɥ HE3ńƟ1divideͶoumlɯ4ɗǛ3ȸB$H1sup1ɗǛEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ŷęH0Ͷoumlɯƴ˗

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ƴ˗reg3ɯƴ˗3EgraveOacuteNjȊ1G˞0ɚƙɣ GǷʃʐ4$3ȣ˰EgraveK˱gtampA3-

40

134 LCOEGKaacute

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ˮȲ 4 şZajn (capacity credit) ʡʭŘŚƄ1ƤƐK0ʜı-Ͷoumlɯ1D)ƕǽĺɅHʹnj

EHGKʆȣɞAring5 şZajn 303ľĜǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ 1 GW1ťƕǽĺɅK 03GWȿEG-GşZajn1G˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

4

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136 LCOE FGYacuteEgrave

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5

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˫3D1ʌƊƔ3ƀXj`y14ouml3łĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3˚ugraveƱƮD7P

dlOzƀʰƾȽeumlƢǓƱ0E71yacuteľ3ȿEgraveUgraveČeumlődž3ʌƊƔͳ

E3Xj`yĠ=HG x 1-24LCOEƖEHampĔTHORNoumlźľĔTHORNFITAEligʬĽŌʗͿPdlOzD7yacuteYj

3EcircKʆampA3-G3IJ1ʆD1FGOacuteȜ3ľĜ4aRZnɯʿ3 LCOEK31ƛ˞0ĔTHORNƖEH0)ampƧģ-F3ľĜ4 LCOE KG3ăccedil0ĔTHORNƖEHampKʆĨG

x 1minus2 aringmH7Bmacrs_N3N9AampgtKQ-1Agravedeg

ʌƊƔ3Xj`yt

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ ndash

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

FG =

1 ndash ʌɞ times ƀʰƾ t ndash ʌɞ times euml t + ʌyacute3ȿEgraveUgraveČ t

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ +

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

LCOE =

6

14 rkzoumlRuumljfrac14divide-1

șʛ-4 Ĵ3aRZn3ǎugraveKGĴatildeƷŞ1)3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKđdivideamp 7Ĵ3Ĵecirc1ʆH14 ECN3mǞȰ˼KɥG˞0Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3ŃǘKŅĴ-ȣG1DFěĴ3ccedilFͶoumlɯaRZn3|bP]bnǥʄ10Geumlɥ

ė˃0mgEHGampȳͶoumlɯ3]bn4˳ʆ0ĽġHamp]bnmg3

Ūǘ3^KĠG

15 vQ5otildeordm

3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnƟ˃0E71yacutemgszligiquest3ȜʄDzucircƟKaeligǽGF˯ǥD

ampmgfb4ŅʍŅȓ-FĽġHampmg34ĴD7mgfb1DFɮ0)G

Aring5ĽġHamp]bn3mg42008 ƀ3ͳ-˘ampɠķEgraveȉK˘G3ŚEgraveȉǥʄ-0brvbarAringAG=ampsup21ǀGvgA2008 ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlaRZnK˘amp3A3-Gś14 2008ƀntilde1ɯȲHǓƱJHampbrvbarAringKĠGė˃ƟGmgEHGampampɉķɱ0ɿɹKIcircȜG-0)ampE1 IEA Task264ěĴ3deg˘ɱ013aRZnK˘KƧIJampA3-GͶoumlɯ3ś3]bn4^PnaRZn1D)ɮ0G

ƕ)sup23mg4ěĴ3szligˊɱɛȯ˷ǥ3amp3gt1ʆampA3-3ɏ1ɫƧ-G

16 tzGKLCOErmicroQ1

Ͷoumlɯ3Ĵecirc3]bnļǷampaRZn-4đɔb13Ĥ8ͿȣHG

3đɔb4ěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3deg˘ɱ0Ȓƭ˞ʥK˘A3-ƴ˗ɱvgaRZn3ɚƙƟ

˃Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bnʰƾʗͿyacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞ

ǴĴ3ʌɞʗͿ3ǞĠ=HGđɔb-4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘKńG=ampͶoumlɯ

KǓǎGĕFʩgt4Ĵ1D)ɮ0GampͶoumlɯǕʘBPdlOzAĠ0ƕ)đɔ

b-4 LCOE3˩ʙʫȁ3gtK˘ʆG Ĵecirc3ƴ˗ɱvgKUgrave 1-21ʆĎȲ4đɔb-43ěvgKszlig3Ĵ1Ga

RZn3ˬOtildeş3divideſĹ˩ʙGđɔb3ƴ˗ɱvg3OacuteA3˘1ʆF

2008 ƀ3ˬOtildeşȣɱņ)ampbQRmʟĴ$HH 98MW85MWͿ-ƄĜņ0)G7 Ĵ- 2008 ƀ1śǟHampdeg˘ɱ0aRZnKŅŪ0FAēǧ-GD1đɔb3divide14Ĵatilde3ʱSrYş-40aRZn3ˬOtildeşKɥGđɔb3aRZ

nȒʝ14==0Ƹ˂G$3ƸĴecirc3 LCOE G4 FG ˩ʙ1ƐG40ɏKƿǐG34˞-GđɔbNjAEligG342008 ƀ3Ĵecirc3ʫȁKȣGamp3ˊɱ0ɏ10 Ugrave 1-3 4Ĵecirc3yacutevgKʆampA3-Gě3yacutevg1szlig3Ĵ3ʼnOacuteKđɔ

b3OacuteɥGYacute1ampD1đɔb3˩ʙOacuteĴecirc3 LCOE B FG 3ʫȁ1ƐG40

ECN m-4otildeƊɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞKɥGǷdivideſĹ]bn (WACC) A3˘1ʆGWACC 4˜ǘ3yacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞĴ3ʌɞͿKyacute]bnszligiquestK˷ǥGćɂŚļɆ1ĠG Ugrave 1-41ĴecircD7đɔb3 LCOE FG3ʫȁKʆ3ʫȁ142008ƀ3 LCOEyacuteYj

3˩ʙʫȁKĠG3ʫȁ4Ĵecirc3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnszligiquestK˘ampʆampA3-G3Ͷ

oumlɯaRZn-Aś3 LCOE4ľƯaRZn1D)ɮ0)G

ĎȲ4 Ugrave 1-33mĀ3sup3Ś3amp3THORNoumlmg43gt-ʆG1ɫƧraquo LCOE FG3ʫȁ4

ʟo3Ǟ-ʆG

7

Ugrave 1-2 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divideOslashfrac12JFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h b

P bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b Ͷ^Pc(MW) ĎȲ5 23 20 30 20 24 20 17 21

Ͷļǘ 7 5 5 15 41 6 50 34 szligːǨ 2695 2260 2200 2150 2600 1750 3066 2628 ƷĎȲ6(eurokW) 1250 1373 1325 1250 1591 1790 1377 1449 ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 00 15 00 00 16 00 00 06 reg3]bn

euroMWhͿ 3 0 10 3 0 0 0 1

ʰƾijŚͿ(euroMWh) 000 4633 3139 000 001 000 860 629

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 12 0 13 20 11 31 5 11

njʰƾʱͳ

(euroMWh) 12 21 28 20 11 31 7 13

đɔb divide 61 38 57 114 366 46 318 NA

Ugrave 1-3 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14dividearingmJFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h bP

bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 55 50 70 50 50 60 50 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 110 95 150 100 120 70 75 100 Oumlyacute3otildeĜͿ 80 70 80 80 87 70 0 80 Ƿ3otildeĜͿ 20 30 20 20 13 30 100 20 ǴƀͿ 13 13 15 15 20 20 15 15 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 250 298 255 300 280 210 389 280

WACCͿ 52 56 60 59 47 49 75 49

Ugrave 1-4 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divide LCOE FGyuml2008Ā

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

bPb 120 (167) oPk 5 (7) Uh 94 (131) ʟĴ ndash1 (ndash1) oPk 85 (118) bPb ndash1 (ndash1) bP 83 (115) Uh ndash3 (ndash4)

bQRm 67 (93) bP ndash3 (ndash4) ʟĴ 65 (91) mZ ndash6 (ndash8)

mZ 61 (85) bQRm ndash8 (ndash11) đɔb 68 (95) đɔb NA

Ugrave 1-41ʆampD1Ĵecirc3 LCOE4bPb3 120MWh167oMWhͿĎȲ7EmZ3 61MWh85oMWhͿ=-Gđɔb3 LCOE4 68MWh95oMWhͿLJŚGěĴ3 LCOE ɮ0)G34Ĵecirc3ɯoumlʰƾǓaeligƷ]bn˺ǞȰ31DGA3-Gș1ěĴ3 LCOE1HE3vgĒltƐKDŽG

ĎȲ5 DF˳Ͷoumlɯ]bnccedilǿ14gɷƑtzſĹͶ)amp˞0vgKĠSrYAElig

ʬ1Gǥʄ0sup3ŚKĠG10G1ʆampLJŚOacute4ǷǮ1ʆampsup2ń3ƴ˗BĴşǦ1ȣ-GD

1ș3ćʣ0shyȓ3gtKʆA3G ĎȲ6 Yacute1ampD1Ʒ]bnD7aRZnƈˬ4 2008ƀ3A3sup3ŚGś14Ʒ]bnͶ3

ɯȲʗͿ14 2008ƀsup2ntilde3ǘŒĠ=HGė˃ƟG ĎȲ7 ɐǯn 1o139-njʙ

8

17 LCOEzoacuteplusmnecirc

ŅĴccedilǿ-4ěĴ1G 43˞0]bnvg3 LCOE93ƐKDŽ)ampĴecirc1 LCOEKLJŚ63]bnvgKĴecirc3Oacute$3reg3vgKđɔb3Oacuteamp3ccedilǿ14

|bPɂŚļɆđɔb3vgOacuteͿȣampĴecirc3THORNoumlvg3ƐKegraveFamp

3ŅĴccedilǿ-ȏ˯amp˞0vg14ɯoumlƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnKĠ

ampș13ʫȁKszlig3Ĵ3-ȣamp AringěĴ3szligːǨ3 LCOE 93ƐKx 1-3 1ʆ3IJ4 3 3ǥʄ0˱bKȣ

ampA3-G=Ɍˎ3Ȍ[y4Yacute1Ugrave 1-4 -ʆampěĴ3 LCOE K˘A3-szligTHORNoumlvgKĴecirc1ʆGș1ʳ4đɔbKʆA3-|bP3 LCOEK 68MWhszligvgKđɔb3OacuteG=ampʲˎ3jn4ȼĜbKʆA3-szligːǨKĴecirc3Oacute

$3reg3vgKđɔb3OacuteG x 1-31-6 4$HHɯouml˫đɔͿƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnK˘G

Ĵecirc3 LCOEɌˎ3Ȍ[yͿđɔb3 LCOEʳͿ43IJ-AŚ˞0]bnvg4ěIJ-ɮ0)FHKV-ccedilFǦʆG

x 1-3 rmicroQ1tzfrac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀkwIumlsect

x 1-4 rmicroQ1tzccedil-1kwIumlsect

9

x 1-5 rmicroQ1tzigraveeacuteETHaeligkwIumlsect

x 1-6 rmicroQ1tzccedilntildeacirciacute-1kwIumlsect

ěĴ3˞0Ͷoumlɯ]bn3vg34sup23D1˷ǥ-GampH1E0Ϳ frac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀăszligːǨ3Ĵ1DG14==0aacuteD7Iumlecirc3˞įƐ

GAring5oPk-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ1D)aRZnɯ4ͶɅ3 Ć1ƹB

EHGmZ-4Ĵatilde3ǵɯ3^PnKɯGntilde1Ͷ3ʹˬ˩1D)Ǡœ3Ͷ

oumlɯ^Pn3ˬOtildeǭǝEumlHGľĜAF$3ʫȁĴatilde3eacuteǴ3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn3

2008ƀ1ˬOtildeǭǝ3ť0)GbPb-4ű3NZdbEHGamp2008ƀ1śǟHampɯaRZn3ǘ4ŚHampA310)GʟĴ14Uumlccedil1ˍō0ͶɅ

KDzGaRZn^PnǘŅGʳ93NZdbeumlɥė˃ɞEHGamp

aRZnɥ^PnȪŚ14FFľĜ1D)4ɯ3aeligoumlƶiacuteKGKƖ00)

GǞbQRm-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ4Ƿʃʐ3reg3Ĵ4ĪͲ10)0Uh-4

FIT3ĽŌ3szligːǨ3ǰņOacute-ȪEHGampǰ0^PnKɯampFǰǝ3ƴ˗KɥampFGyacutePdlOzŪ00)Gė˃ƟG

ccedil-1ăƷ]bn4Ĵ1D)˒ɮ0GmZ-AUh-AszligːǨ1ļ+

ugraveƭ3 FITĽŌͶ3Ƹ1Ɛƕ)aRZn3Ʒ]bn1ƐGmZ-4szligːǨampF3˚ugrave3ͳKǰņ1Gampņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶUacuteYacute

HGǞUh-4˚ugraveKszligːǨ3ʜıatildeGampDF]bn3ŘͶ

10

ƴ˗ˡˡHGmZ-4oumlʡʭ93ʡ]bn)ampͶoumlɯaRZn3

ŨTHORN]bn34aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZn3So_oumlȸʿͿ

ǓƱ)G$3ampmZ3ʡ]bn4Ʒ]bn1Ġ=H0bPo

Pk$3reg33Ĵ-4ʡ]bn$3reg3ʡʭŀƍ]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿǓ

Ʊ)Famp)H4Ʒ]bn1ĠEHGbQRm14Ʒ]bn3ethȿ

ė˃10GD0ćʣĀHampʡʭʡưGoPk-4ͶoumlɯͶɅ3 Ć

1ƼņampʫȁɯbrvbarȐʿ4$3˚UgraveưȠŅ3aRZn-gɷƑ3ņ0ͶK

DFľƯ1ˬʹGKƖ00)GƷ]bn4gɷƑD7tz3ǘOacuteņ

0GͿbPb-4ű3ͶoumlɯaRZnɥ^Pn93NZdb=ampˠ

ȕ3ʪȽKȘGampƷ]bn0)G ʟĴ-4ņˠȕ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥEacuteɲ4ɚ1Ͷ3THORN1EcircFɯȲˠȕ

ņ0G1HEgraveȉotildeƊHG˯ǥHGʟĴ3QOoyM4đɔbD

FAaRZnˠȕņƷ]bnfrac12ampʟĴ3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4ǘotildeƊĖEHG

ơƣGˉģȻ1bQRm-4aRZn3ˠȕņ0)AEgraveȉ3otildeƊ

3ơƣ40H4 2008ƀ3bQRm3ˬʹ]bnmampaRZnşȣŪ0)ampamp-ė˃ƟG

igraveeacuteETHaeligăěĴʆampʰƾ3mg4ʄśƟşǦ1Iacuteͱ-0ǘOacute-G

mZ-4żͶoumlɯaRZn3OumlȖʿ4 5Έ10 ƀ3Ǵɱʰƾ^wbŋʢKƛ˞FH4ƀʢ 25kWĽġHGUh-4ʰƾ14żaRZnszligiquest-Ś3EgraveȉHG^wbŋʢ]bnD7ĸdegĠ=HFĽġH

G]bn45Έ23kWņoPk-Aǰfrac12 5ƀ3řszlig0^wbŋʢƛ˞HGľĜGbPb-4ʰƾ3ʪEHGuacuteNZd`wlO

3ĪͲ0E71Ͷ3ɼȧBcentȵ1D)reg3ĴDFʰƾ0)GʟĴ3

ʰƾ4ƀŨTHORNHampņˠȕ0aRZn-4ſĹfrac120)GD-GʟĴ-4

YN~jZbzoG4ɯȗ3ĦKordfnjGǨǴǣG˯ƻAcedilEHF

ƕ)ĽġHGmg3ʰƾ4ũ˰EgraveHGė˃ƟGoPk-AOtildeĦ3ordfnj

ƛ˞HGampũˠȕaRZn-4ʰƾ0)G=ampoPk4szligiquest3

ʰƾ3˞0Ȓƭ˞ʥͳ0ŚǴɱɠĸˡŤ3]bnĽġHGbQRm

-4ʰƾaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒ɮ0)G ccedilntildeacirciacute-1ăͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bn4ʟĴsup2ń3Ĵ-4ĝʋƄ-Gm

ZoPkUh-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿub`n1ļ+Ͷouml

ɯaRZn3K˺Goumlmiddotʇ-GľĜKż4aRZn$3A31D

)K˺GmZbQRm-4ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˊɱ1frac12

bZ3Ʒȗ˟0H$HaRZn33ȪŚ1ēǧHGʟĴsup2ń33Ĵ-

AaRZn3˺3Oumlȣɞ40)Fż4 60Έ87-G ʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn˺ǞȰ4(E5Aringńɱ-G2008 ƀ14ʟĴ3Ņ3aRZnż1ˇŹǷȣɞ55 100Ϳ-˺HaRZn1ļ+Ouml4lte-)ampH4Ǖƃ3yacute3˚ugraveiacuteƄ3amp-F3iacuteƄ1DFgjZb

SZPlO13ʀEHGSZPlOyMPpbȇƉɯ˖1DGǷ˺Ϳ1ɚĀHampƏƩ

ƞŀampgjZbSZPlOyMPpbUacuteYacuteHampampʟĴ-4regĴDFAǷ]bn

0)G0J(gjZbSZPlO4żOumlDFAͿ=ampʟĴ-4Ouml1D

G˺1D)aRZn3ɅKʄIgraveampb-4aRZn-40Ȱlaquo|-

3OumlK)GľĜ)amp =-3=x 1-31-61ʆamp 43˞0]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥD7ěĴ3 LCOEđɔ

b3 LCOEKx 1-71ʆ

11

x 1-7 rmicroQ1tzordfUacuteIgravekwIumlsect

x 1-8 4˞0]bnŃǘ3 LCOE 93ƐKE1ȣȏ˪Gamp1˞0]bnvgKĴecirc-40[1G3IJ-4ěĴ3]bnŃǘ3ƐD7đɔbȣampěĴ3 LCOE3ņKʆGȌ[y4ěĴ3 LCOE KŀdivideGOacuteKʆʲ3Ȍ[y4đɔbDFAěĴ3 LCOE Kfrac12GOacuteKʆ˞0]bnvgKLCOE đɔbDFŀdivideampʋƄȌ[yͿ3ņ1E1ʆGAring5ɯouml3ǰũŃǘ4bPbĽġampǘOacute-G

3Ĵ3ʰƾƷ]bnDFA LCOE KŀdivideG3ǰfrac12OacuteEǰOacute=-3Ĵecirc3THORNoumlvg3ʜıEɯoumlD7Ʒ]bn LCOE 1ǰAƐampJGH4ˊ1Đ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOEƨƄccedilǿˈG (IEA 2010 Cory and Schwabe 2009)ˉģȻ1ĽġHampʰƾ3ʜı4đɔbȣƷ]bn˺]bnDFA LCOE ŀdivide1ƐG3E ʰƾmg3ʄśƟeumlɥė˃Ɵƕ)THORNoumlvg3Ĵ1DG3ņLCOELJŚOacute3ȜʄƟKEHampA31ampė˃ƟGʰƾ1įGŸɮKȿEampE0Gccedilǿ

ƛ˞-GʾEHG

x 1-8 tzSUacute-1JFQ5 LCOEoslash

12

18 rkzacuteRuumljfrac14divide-1

ECN3m1DF-0ȳ1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯƯ3 LCOEKLJŚG-GraquoɠǨɏ-eumlɥ-GȳaRZn3mg4EHFɚ1Ĵecirc3 LCOE KLJŚG31ƛ˞0THORNoumlŃǘ3řszlig0mgƉGƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ1GĴecirc3 LCOE ȣ4˖)E$3đɔbAˬ0sup23Ugrave 1-5 D7 1-6 1ĽġHG]bn˺3mg3KʆɫƧmZ-4ʡʭ93ʡD7ȷƂz3ƛ˞ƟKʇmiddotɱɥGamp

aRZn3ɯȐʿHKƺ0-G3ccedilǿ-ɥampm4aR

Zn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏ1ʑ)ampA3-GampmZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF1ēǧ0m

Āccedilǿ-4Aumlɥ0)ampHE3ʡʭʡ]bnKĠG-mZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF4

ʢ 3000kW10Gx 1-71HE3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1˟ʏA)amp LCOEyacuteYjKʆ

Ugrave 1-5 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+fOslashfrac12JFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn aRZn3ɛȯ 2007ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF

ʓŶƀ 2007ƀ 2010ƀƔĄ ɚŚH ɯƯ^Pc(MW) 20 23 50

Ͷļǘ 60 90 12 szligːǨ 3350 3800 3700 Ʒ(eurokW) 3315 1883 3230

ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 0 0 0 reg3]bn(euroMWh) 11 0 0 ʰƾijŚͿ

(euroMWh) 149 0 123

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 0 24 0

njʰƾʱͳ(euroMWh) 44 24 33

ˀɥƀǘ 15 25 20

x 1-6 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+faringmJFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 45 65 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 120 112 150 OumlotildeĜͿ 50 26 70 ǷotildeĜͿ 50 74 30 ǴƀͿ 15 13 12 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 255 250 298

WACCͿ 79 92 77

Ugrave 1-7 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+f LCOEthornFG

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

Prinses Amalia 166 (231) oPkˊcurrenɂ NA oPkˊcurrenɂ 156 (217) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 6 (8) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 88 (122) Prinses Amalia 5 (7)

13

19 T LCOEYacuteEgravesup2

LCOE4==0ɶɱuumlȗD7˸ʿ3amp1˩ʙHGˊźȤǕʘȪŚʿƷŞaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿʗě3ɚŚ3qcKɄamp LCOE KeumlɥGamp) LCOE 1AumlJHGưȰ4ȓ-40LCOEK3ʋƄ˳LJŚGG43ʋƄ3sup3Śƛ˞4AumlɥG˩ʙǞȰ1D)==-FH LCOE 3ʫȁ1˒ƐG3ampecirc3 LCOE ˩ʙǞȰK=-3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECNmD7ǞȰťȣsup21˷ǥG Aring5ș˩ɩ`pU-4Ʒ]bn3ɠķOacuteD7ʇmiddotɱotildeƊɞKɥotildeFƊampƀ]bn3ſ

Ĺ1ļ+ćʣĀampdeg˘OacuteKɥ LCOE K˟ʏAGľĜG3Ni-4OumlǷȣɞOumlǷ]bnǴȰlaquoʌ)ampǥʄ0ɅʄIgraveǼacute3sup3Ś0H0$3degJF3ćʣ

0ǞȰ-4otildeƊɞLOacute3gtKɥF$H1D)yacuteưȠ3ɚƙKszlig˘GIEA 3Projected Costs of Generation Electricityrdquo (IEA2010) D7IEA World Energy Outlook 2009rdquo (IEA 2009) 43NiKɥFsup23Ɖ1DF LCOEK˩ʙG

3Ni-4IEA 4otildeƊɞKʇmiddotɱɅ]bn13˘G3]bn4ʇmiddotszligiquestɚŚ

3ƴ˗1ƷG1ƺ]bnK˘ (IEA2010)3ʇmiddotɱ˟ĸEIEA4otildeƊɞ 5Έ10KɥF5KȣɱŘŚɱ0ɢĿ1GOumlyacuteŰ˖bZ3frac12ƷŞeumlɥ-Gɞ1310K˒ʪȽɱƴ˗ɱbZD7EgraveȉbZ1ɷGƷŞ3Ʒ]bn13G (IEA2010)DFćʣĀampș˩ɩ`pU1DFTHORNoumlvg3ǘKǰũ1˳ʧƄ1D)ěʍ3ɯĺ3 LCOE KşǦ1ȣG-G H41 ɯȐʿ4 ECNm3D0Ƅ0Xj`ymKAuml)ɚŚ3aRZn

ě3 LCOE0E71ȜģɠķEgraveOacuteatildeĔɲɞȽǴ)ampreg3yacuteƿȔK˰EgraveG3m1˜ǘ3ƯDzʿ3ǥʄ0˺3ntildeNjǼacuteʌ3Ɛ$3reg3ĔTHORNG4]bn3ƐKĠ

GľĜAGǨ143mKɥegrave3ɉķɱ0]bn3ȵHK˰EgraveampFparaȐ3ɚŚ3

aRZn93ƷKė˃1GeumlɲƖEHGD0SrYEgraveȉKȪŚampFG(Harper et al 2007)3˳ʧ0ǞȰKɥampľĜƷ]bnBƀʪ-0ǘŅ3˞į LCOE 1ƐG10GaRZnƈˬ3ǰʨɱ0ȪŚȖ4ƷŞ1GampͶoumlɯ3ʮʯɱ0ˬʹKė˃1G]bn3OacuteKɡ˥

G14ƷŞ3ˡɏKɡ˥G˞-G Aring3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECN m4ƾccedilƷŞ1ƯŚ3Ƿeumlɲɞ (ROE) KIgrave˯aR

ZnȢ1 LCOEK˰EgraveGamp3Ƅ0Xj`ym-GYacute1ampD1ECN3Xj`ymKE1˳ʧ0A31G-ǷD7OumleumlőKƾ˺ȒKǥʄ1˘-

G=ampͶoumlɯ3]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏE˘-aRZnKGamp

3ĔTHORN3ȵH-ɸȡ0H50E0Ͷoumlɯ]bnK˟ʏG-G

110 LCOEYacuteEgraveocircicedilplusmnecirc

Ugrave 1-8 4otildeƊɞ LCOE ǞȰKȣampA3-GXj`yccedilǿ3ćʣ0ǞȰƄ0ǞȰ3ǞKɥ3otildeƊɞ1 LCOE K˟ʏFreg3egrave3]bnvgKě3đɔb1ɔEŚampE1HEʿ3ǞȰ1D)đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿKɣ GotildeƊɞK˘G

t=1Tsum Ʒ t + ʰƾ t + ɗǛ t + Ɏʥ]bn t + ǑĐ t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

LCOE =

t=1Tsum ɯouml t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

Ϳ

14

ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3ˡɏELdeg˘ɱ0otildeƊɞ4Ȥ3aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿG4ƷŞ3ˡɏ1ʑ

)ampotildeƊɞ3OacuteDFfrac120GtimesğGIEA2010 1DH5ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3otildeƊɞfrac120)Gɡɦ4bZŪǘ3ȤƷŞ-40ǘŅ3IumllaquoƷŞ1ccedilǗHGampɷGbZ˺]bn

Ū00Gamp-G$H1sup1ʇmiddotɱˡɏE3 LCOE 3˟ʏFAȤƷŞ3˟ʏFDFAfrac120Gtimesğ1G

Ugrave 1-8 icedil LCOEsup2plusmnecirc

ǞȰͽˡɏ ˡɏ ˺]

bn3Ʋ ɥ m

otildeƊɞ3

ʜı

otildeƊɞ3ʜı

1G LCOE

đɔb3

LCOEKɣ GotildeƊɞ

ș`pU ˩ɩ3ćʣ˩ʙ

agraveɱʇmiddotɱ ƷŞ3ˡɏ

otildeƊɞ1 ĠG IEA2010 5Έ10

53Έ70MWh

IEA3ǞȰͿ

95 IEA3ǞȰͿ

ƄXj`

yccedilǿ

aRZn ɯbrvbarȐʿG

4ȤƷŞ ǥʄ1Śʻ ECN2008 75Έ15

(ROE) 64Έ76

MWh 10

ECN3ǞȰͿ

reg3szlig3Ńǘ1đɔb3ntildeNjǼacuteKɥ Ƿccedilǿ-ĽġHamp ROE3ʜı1ļ+

Ugrave 1-8 1ʆD1(E3Ni-ALotildeƊɞ3 LCOE Oacute1˒ƐG95otildeƊɞ4ʇmiddot3ˡɏK˘ʞɬ0˩ʙȰKɥđɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿK˩ʙG31ƛ˞0Oacute-Gƕ)Ƿʃʐ3đdivide˽ĴĽġampmg1ļ+0E3otildeƊɞ4ǰņOacute1+4-F

IEA-43ʜıK 5Έ10GH4ʞɬĀampʇmiddotɱ˩ɩǞȰKɥƄXj`yưȰ3ordmOacuteKǥE1ampA3-G 1frac12Ǟ3otildeƊɞNjȊHampŽ3ǰAfrac12OacuteͿˊƷŞ3bK˘amp1ɥEHGƕ)

LCOEK˩ʙG14=ampͶoumlɯ3 LCOEKreg3Ʌ3 LCOEȣG14aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏG4DFƁoumlʡʭ|3ˡɏ3(E1ʑ)GKǥʄ1GėȘ-G

otildeƊɞ3Ƹ4$3ˡɏ1ťƜGdz=LCOEK˘ěʍ3ƉKɥGľĜ4ʑˆGˡɏotildeƊɞ$3reg3vg3OacuteKǥʄ1˥Gƛ˞HG

111 Iumlatilde

IEAWind Task263ʫȁELCOEĴ1D)ņɮ0)GJG33ƄĜ4ɯoumlƷɥ˺)ampě]bn3Ɛ1DGA3HGcurrenƦFĴŞ3 LCOE3Ÿɮ1ǰAƐamp34Ƿɱ0ͶȯG4Ͷ3ƴ˗shyȓ1ļ+currenɂHGɯouml-G=amp

ǷɱǓaeligD7ͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ǽacuteņɮ0GEźľoumlAͶoumlɯ3]bnszligiquest

1˒ƐGE1ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾAěĴ-˒ɮ0FH LCOE 1ņ1Ɛamp 63ɂŚļɆ-SrY3]bnszligˊK˘ LCOE 3Ɵ4ĴBɶɱ˸ʿ$3reg3eumlɥʿ3

-ćʣ0ȣ-GD1ƝJHGLCOE3ěʍ3˩ʙ3ˡɏE3D10HampKȜʄ1ɡ˥Gƛ˞GLCOE4ɪaacute-Aordfnjė˃0˩ʙ-A0IɚŚ3qc1ɥHGDzɲ-Eacuteeuml0k-Gƕ)ȣD7$3ʫȁ3˥14ɫƧGdz=

rOtildemiddot

Cory and Schwabe 2010 ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financial Variablesrdquo httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2009) ldquoThe Economics of Wind Energy A Report by the European Wind

15

Energy Associationrdquo March 2009 Available at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentspublicationsreportsEconomics_of _Wind_Main_Report_FINAL-lrpdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2010) ldquoWind in Power 2009 European Statisticsrdquo The European Wind Energy Association February 2010 Accessed at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentsstatistics100401_General_Stats_20 09pdf

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review and Comparative Analysisrdquo Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 Accessed at httpeetdlblgoveaempreports63434pdf

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2006) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2006rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2006weo2006pdf

IEA (2008) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2008rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2008weo2008pdf

IEA (2009) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2009rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgWbookshopaddaspxid=388

IEA (2010) ldquoProjected Costs of Generating Electricityrdquo 2010 Edition Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgpublicationsfree_new_DescaspPUBS_ID=2207

RECaBs (2007) ldquoRECaBs Interactive Renewable Energy Calculatorrdquo Renewable Energy Calculator Accessed August 2010 at httpwwwrecabsorg

Wiser R Bolinger M (2010) ldquo2009 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy August 2010 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs2009_wind_technologies_market_reportpdf

16

Aring 2Auml NDQ+

21 NDQ+uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ȑ˞0E71]bn3ɚƙKG-

4 2008 ƀ3D7ȳͶoumlɯƴ˗1GĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1ɒɏKƎG

211 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

2008ƀǶ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ĝ˩ 3179MW 2756MWȳ 423MWͿ-H4 2007ƀǶ3ˬOtildeş1ťʢ 1252000ƀ3ˬOtildeşDFA 32ŀdivideG2001ƀE 2008ƀ=-1ŀdivideampˬOtildeş3ʢĄǘ4ȳͶoumlɯ1DGA3-G2008 ƀ1ȳ-ƈˬ3ȳQOoyM4 3F(64 2009ƀ1řƭA64 2010ƀʈ1ŐGcurrenŚ-GˮȲ 5 x 2-1 1ʆD1ŨTHORN3Ƅ4Ǵ15EņJG2001ƀE 2003ƀ1

ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 725MW ŀdivideamp2004 ƀE 2007 ƀ=-4 8MW ŀdivideamp10H4 2003 ƀ1śǟHampaRZn3ǕɱǓǎ˩ɩņŽ1ȿͳHampʫȁ-GHK˚amp1 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampǝamp0ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFͶ3ƈˬǝamp1ȲɶHG10)amp2008ƀ3 FITŨTHORNƔ2010ƀ 7DZǶ=-1Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 280MWŀdivideG (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ1D)mZ3ʱoumlȸ3ʢ 20AEligʬHG

x 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

ˮȲ 5 Roslashdsand IIȳͶoumlɯƯ4 2010ƀ 8DZ1ŐG

17

mZ4ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ƀșɶȔKŚ0EU 3˞Ȩ1DH5mZ4 2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯ-ʱSrYȸ3 30Kamp3˩ɩKʘŚ0H50E0EU-4szlig3divideɳĴ13aumlɣė˃SrY3ɶȔOacuteKƭGamp3˖uuml˩ɩ3AcircƭKʻyacutemacrFm

Z4 2010ƀ 6DZ1Ĵ3˖uuml˩ɩKɯ˘G3˩ɩ-42020ƀ=-1ˬOtildeşKʢ 4 GW$H1D)Ͷoumlɯ4 11000 GWh10GcurrenƦHG=ampʱş3 3ccedil3 1D7ouml3ʢ 50Kȳ1ˬʹGͶEƖGcurrenƦHG (Kemin 2010)(0gt12009ƀ3ɯouml4ʢ 6700 MWh-G2010 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3currenɂ4ěȚŵdivideɳĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010) ʁǴɶȔ2008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MW3divide0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ˬ

Otildeş 350 MW3ǝˬŚEHG3ɶȔOacute3Ąccedil4Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ1D)ƭA3-$H1D)ʦʏş4 175 MWŀdivideG10GĸǞ3˩ɩƎŬ42012ƀ=-1 350MW1divideş 150 MWKdivideGamp3˩ɩKˠŚ0H50E0 ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MWKdivideGʁǴɶȔ433ņˠȕ0ȳͶoumlɯƯ0J( Horns

Rev II209 MW2009ƀ 9DZŐͿRoslashdsand II207 MW2010ƀʈʓŶcurrenŚͿAnholt400 MW2012ƀ12DZʓŶcurrenŚͿ1DFƭHG˟gt-G

Ugrave 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

1761 2358 2464 2697 2708 2716 2720 2728 2717 2756 2985 2621

ȳ 11 50 50 210 423 423 423 423 423 423 856 1339

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 2-2 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

176 1 597 106 183 12 8 4 8 ndash11 39 ndash38 ndash135

ȳ 11 39 0 210 223 0 0 0 0 0 100 ndash14

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

212 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1iacuteŚHampaumlɣė˃SrYȰ1DFͶoumlɯaRZn3ǝamp0ĽiacuteƄŨTHORNHampǝamp03ͶoumlɯaRZnD7UoN13ȳaRZnĎȲ8-4HAszligːǨ

22000Ǩ1igraveG=-bjnźľEgraveȉ1divide 025mZZrkW0034kW ĎȲ9 0047okWͿ3ugraveƭNjAEligHGĎȲ10szligːǨ˫3Ǩ1igraveampƔ4źľEgraveȉKĖĕG10

G Ͷ1ť4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥƀǘ3Ǵ ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3˚ugraveƀ 0023mZ

ZrkW00037kW 0005okWͿ˚ugraveHG

ĎȲ8 UoNaRZn134ȳͶoumlɯƯ3THORNǸư4ecirc1ƈˬHGȳͶoumlɯƯ3aRZn

ŚʻHG13ȳͶoumlɯƯUoNɧ˻db1DFƈˬHG ĎȲ9 17353mZZr ĎȲ10 ɠ˖3Egraveȉ˚ugraveiacuteƄ4ͶoumlɯaRZn93ugraveƭK 1 kWampF 010mZZr0013Ϳamp

[1degJ)ŨTHORNHampA3-G

18

ˊɱ1mZ-4ͶszligːǨ- 22000Ǩ3ɯK˖147ƀE 10ƀGAring5 3 MWͶKˬʹGH5FIT4ș3D1ȪŚHGĎȲ11

3 MWͶszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 3000 kWh

3000 kWh times 22000 = 66 GWh FITʬ˺Ǚ˚ugrave43 MWͶ 66 GWhɯG=-3ǴǓƱJHG3Oacute4ș3D10G

(66 GWh times 025Zr) + (66 GWh times 0023Zr) = 18064200Zr

Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4ʽǹĀampͶKǑĐGǝˠ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1A

ɥHG3ͳ4ǑĐHampˬOtildeş3 2ETHKɣɤGamp3szligːǨ 12000Ǩ1ť 008mZZrkW001kW 00139okWͿ-GAring5 225 kW3ͶKTHORNǝˠ3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn1D)ǑĐGľĜˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugraveK˩ʙGsup23D10G

225 kW times 2ļszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 450 kWh

450 kWh times 12000 = 54 GW

ǑĐamp 225 kWͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4

54 GWh times 008Zr = 432000Zr 3˚ugraveɥHG34450 kWǵɄ3ͶKǑĐGľĜ1EHG3˚ugrave3ơƣKĖGamp

3ǝˠaRZn-ǑĐGͶ3ǘ1iacuteˬEHGJ-403˚ugraveɥHG34

450 kWǵɄ3ͶK˩ 175 MWKǑĐGľĜ1EHG szligːǨ1ļ+ FIT-4Ś3 kWh3ɯǨ-40ˊ1tzgɷƑņͶD

FAņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶ93ƷUacuteHGAring5 3 MW 3ɯȗ3szligːǨampFɯouml (kWh) 415 MWͶ3 2ETH-ƕ)ĖĕG˚ugrave3ͳAETH10G ș1ʆUgrave 2-3D7 2-44FITͶoumlaRZn1GͶ3Ƹ1ĒltƐKʆampA3-3

Aring4ś3aRZn1ļ+G

Ugrave 2-3 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITuh AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave[]psup312

ɯȗ3

ˠȕ

MWͿ

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ ouml

MWhͿ

Ͷ 1ļampF3aRZn]bn

(DKK)

oumlłͳ (DKK)

ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 223 098 30 90 90 7497 23430 5250 224 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 223 098 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 227 100

(Nielsen et al 2010)

ĎȲ11 3Aring4reg3Ĵ3ʒ14Ġ=H0ampmZZr-ĽġG ĎȲ12 ĝ

19

Ugrave 2-4 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITu AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave]

ɯȗ

^Pc(MW)

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ

ouml (MWh)

Ͷ 1ļampF3aR

Zn]bn

(DKK)

ouml łͳ(DKK)

˚ugrave

(DKK) ʱĔTHORN

(DKK) ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 1650 6610 298 100 30 90 90 7497 2343 5250 1650 6900 295 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 1650 8920 273 092 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 990 5220 281 094

(Nielsen et al 2010)

˫3AringEņĺ3gg1ƷGDFAņĺ3ɯȗ1ƷGǞszligːǨ1ļ+

FIT 3ơƣKĖBJGUgrave 2-3 1ʆHGD1ǰAʪȽucircɞ3ˍͶ4ņĺgKOtildeamp 18 MW3ȣɱũĺ3Ͷ-GH4szlig3Ͷ-Ś3ɯouml kWhKļ1ampľĜ3 FIT1AƎ4=GUgrave 2-4 EszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT E3divideɱĔTHORNƖEHB34gɷƑũtzfrac12 3 MW3ɯȗ-Fȣɱũĺ3ɯȗ4 3frac141ˑ(GJG

FIT3ļɆszligːǨKɥGjn4currenˠŚHampˬOtildeşKƭGamp1ˬʹHGͶ3ǘŪ00G-G=ampH1DFgɷƑtz3OacuteKGjnAŪ00G

HE 2 3ʹ˩ɩKʘŚaRZnKĸUcirc-ĖTHORNHAE1ĪͲ0GľĜGszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT 4mZ3ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ʁǴɱɶȔOacute)ampˬOtildeş1ļ+ǕʘɱɶȔOacuteƭHGD1Gamp3A3-G szligːǨK FIT 3ļɆG3mjn4˚ugrave1DFźľ3ȝgtɣ GampǰAʪȽɱucircɞ

3ˍͶƛAaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ1)ǰAͺoumlɱ0gw-400G-G

$3ampǰʨɱ14Ͷoumlɯreg3ɅDFA10F20mZ-43ƏƉ3 FIT AumlJHGampɯoumlKļɆampɶȔOacuteƭ1G]bn0Gʫȁ0G

22 NDQ+ 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-4mZ1G 2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKG-ɥampmg42008 ƀ1˩ɩG4śǟHampaRZn3ſĹOacute1ļ+A3-GͶ93Ʒ]bn4^Pn3Ǽacute1DFŚ-40mZ-4ɯ]bnȣɱŚGD-GˬOtildeş MWampF3Ʒ]bn14ǰņ- 503GeacuteƀƄ3ɯouml MWh ampFƷ]bn3Ńuumlɞ4 15ǵɄ-G

221 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para mZ3ͶoumlɯaRZ-n4ˊ1Ū0Ͷǘ3Έ12ļͿ3ͶʺKɥG˩ɩW

PoP-4Ū0A 3ļ3ͶKɷʳɛG4ʵB0ŔKNJD1=ʹGGH4ͶK 1 ļccedilǗɱ1ʹGˡˢɱĉƋ0GE-GmZ14ņˠȕQOoyM3AringGbPBʟĴņ0A3-40ǰņˠȕ3b4Ͷ 20ļKˬʹGʱş 63 MWͿ

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹŚȉş4 19 MW-F$3gɷƑ4 80 mtz4 72 m-G2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ-ǰAˊɱ034 23 MW3Ͷ-F$3tz4 80 mgɷƑ4 93 m-G

(b) BL0+Ouml mZ3Ͷğ4ˊ1˝ğ-GampͶ3^PnɡƦɱ034āȷȮų10G

20

ˊɱ1ͶɅ4ǾŪ00)GȮųĸŻ$3Ģ-4ƀſĹͶ 7 msKGH4 2 MWͶtz 80 mͿ1ļ1ťszligːǨʢ 2500Ǩ1ɸƎG(Danish Energy Agency 2010)2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3 2009ƀƄ3szligːǨ4ſĹ 2639Ǩ-)amp2009ƀ3mZ3ͶɅ4żƀ3 88-2008 ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3szligːǨ4szligˀɥƀǘſĹ-ʢ 3000 Ǩ10GcurrenƦHGɫƧszligːǨ3LJŚOacute4mZszligiquest3ͶɅl`1GA3-402008ƀ1ˬʹH2009ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+˩ʙampA3-G

(c) ccedil-1 2008ƀƄ3deg˘ɱ0aRZnƷ]bn141100kW1529okWͿE 1300kW1807

okWͿ=-F$3ſĹ4 1250 kW1738 okWͿ-GEgraveȉ4 2008 ƀ1xZ1ampƔ2009ƀ 2010ƀ1ņŽ1frac12GɚƙG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ1GͶ3ʰƾ4IgraveIcircɡ^wbŋʢĸdegĵĸʚɡ3 4 ɶ-ȒƭH

GHE3ɶ$HHͶoumlɯƯ3ɣȹʰƾ3ʢ 25KĈG2008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlɯaRZn1currenƦHGɣȹʰƾ412MWh17oMWhͿ-G (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m4ƀ|b3Ouml 80-K˺GaRZnKɥGmZ1GȤ

ƯDz3Ͷ4ˊ1ƎƅOgraveŋʢ1DFK˺Gegrave3ĔTHORNKƎƅOgraveŋʢ1Ʒ FͶ

3ƯDzʿ43ļKɷDžeumlɥG-0Ʒ1ťGeumlɊ93ǓaeligǓƱ4szligOumlȖʿ3Ƴ˴

ʻyacutemacrEHG mZ3ɡƦɱ0aRZn4100Ouml-K˺GaRZn-Gż3aRZ

n-4Ouml1DG˺3otildeĜʢ 800)GͶoumlɯaRZn1ťGOgraveTHORNĮĔǴĖTHORNHė˃034 15ƀsup2atilde-G

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(g) Q54Q1 mg4 Economy of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ1

ļ+A3-G

222 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

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OoyMɯ4ˊ1Ǖƃ3˴ėKƖEHG10G3˴ė4THORNǸʋKEHG

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ĎȲ13 Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark ĎȲ14 10ƀijŚEgraveȉKNjAEligGǝˠ3ɯAɰľG

21

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ņˠȕQOoyM1ťʢ 2700Έ3000kW3753Έ4170okWͿ-G ȳQOoyMKĴatilde3oumlʡʭȳŃĶˬOtilde1ʡGamp3]bn4mZ-4Ĵƺ

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bnAĴƺG

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(e) s_N3N9A ˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml3ijŚEgraveȉKĖĕ)

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=- 0034kWh0047okWhͿD7Ͷeumlɥ-Greg3˚ugraveKĖĕG

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22

Ugrave 2-5 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ16

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ17 ȳ

2008ƀĎȲ18 ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 23 23 23 Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 3 91 90 ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2700 4300 3865

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 25 25 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1250 2844 3000

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash (1738) (3953) (4170) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 12 (17) 20 (28) 18 (25) $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 3 (4) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆ Economics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010

Ugrave 2-6 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 50 55 45 Ƿeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 110 112 112 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 80 45 26 Ƿ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 20 66 74

WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 52 88 95 Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 13 10 13 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 25 25 25

FXn $US 139 139 139 FXn DKK ndashndashndash 7353 ndashndashndash 7353

ǛΆEconomics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aeligIacuteɥļ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ

Ugrave 2-7 NDQ+uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

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˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

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ǛΆNielsen et al 2010 Danish Energy Agency 2008 Danish Energy Agency 2009 ĎȲ16 2007ƀ14mZ-ǝamp1ƈˬHampͶ40)amp ĎȲ17 2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ȳ1Ͷ4ƈˬH0)ampȳQOoyM 3ƈˬG4˩ɩȠ1)amp

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23

223 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

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x 2-2 NDQ+rmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup319

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Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

24

x 2-3 NDQ+eumlEuml-1-1iumleGK

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G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ3ʰƾ4Ńuuml133gt˘ʆHG2009ƀD7 2010ƀ3yumlƽɱʃʐ (Nelson

et al 2010) 1DH52008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶ3ʰƾ4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥǴszligiquest- 12MWh17oMWhͿ10Gʰƾ1D)mZ3aRZn3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 1MWh1oMWhͿfrac120)G

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$3ȟAacuteEgraveOacute3ǰņ 25=-ƀ1ȿEgraveUgraveČHH1DFͶoumlɯsup2ń3SrYǕʘ3]bn4ʳƏɱ1frac12G3frac12ɞ4˩ʙ0

224 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj˩ʙ1DFmZ3ĔTHORNŃǘKͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘȣ

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LCOE K3D1ȒƭGKʆG61 MWh85 oMWhͿ3(ʢ 43 MWh

25

60oMWhͿKĔTHORNɅoumlłͿ-24MWh33oMWhͿKaRZn3ˀɥǴ3FIT˚ugraveƏ-3PdlOz-ȣɞ-˧5mZ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 2KĔTHORN3Ȓƭ˞ʥ-ȟF3 3ccedil3 1K FIT-10G

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23 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+

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yacuteYj4ěĴ LCOE3ŸBBɮ0GľĜAG

26

Ugrave 2-8 2007 2008NDQ+uumljfrac14divide LCOEpsup321

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave

(LCOE) euroMWh

($MWh) ndashndashndash 61 (85)

70 (97)

81 (113)

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) 67

(93) 79

(110)

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euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash6

(ndash8) 3

(4) 2

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rOtildemiddot

Danish Wind Industry Association httpwindpowerorgenknowledgestatisticsthe_danish_markethtml September 2010 (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)

Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2007 2008 (Danish Energy Agency 2008) Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2008 2009 (Danish Energy Agency 2009)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Ministry of Climate and Energy National handlingsplan for vedvarende energi i Danmark 2010 (In English National Action

ĎȲ21 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampĔɲʱͳͶoumlɯǕʘͽPdlO

zD7yacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜAG

27

Plan for RE in Denmark) (Kemin 2010)

Nielsen et al Economy of Wind Turbines 2010 EUDP (Nielsen et al 2010) (Original title Vindmoslashllers Oslashkonomi)

Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark (Saabye 2003)

28

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31 lt8uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

311 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

oPk1GͶoumlɯɯ4 1990ƀdegeacuteͰ1ŐHamp$Hsup2ǽͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4 239 GWsup210)ampƀŨTHORNş4 2002ƀ1 32 GW1ampƔJ1ȿŪampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4 2012ƀ=-1Ĝ˩- 306 GW 1ǤG˟=HG2012 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3Ĵecircaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010)

2009ƀȳQOoyM3ʖ 1Ě0)amp Alpha VentusʓŶampH1DFȳ3ɯŧǽŐ=GA3ǴƒHGoPkǕƃ4 2015ƀǶ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʢ 25 GW1GɶȔKɯ˘G

x 3Ă1 lt8uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

2000 ƀoPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4Ĵatildeʱɯouml3 16KĈsup2ǽ3otildeĜ4ņŽ1Ǥ8ƀƔ14 620)GcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3ŀdivideoPkǕƃ1DGɺSrY3ĕFʩgtKʾƬG3otildeĜ4notƔAǤKʯGcurrenƦHGUgrave 3-1 4oPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ĐD7ŧǽ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 3-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀşdivideKʆampA3-G

29

Ugrave 3-1 lt8IacuteAtildeTHORNOacuteeth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

44 61 88 120 146 166 184 206 222 239 306 358

ȳ 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 100

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 3-2 lt8oacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

44 17 27 32 26 20 18 22 17 17 14 03

ȳ 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 04 17

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

312 s_CcedilN3N9A

oPk3Ͷoumlɯ42000ƀEaumlɣė˃SrYȰ (EEG) 1D)ǓǎHG3ȰƓ4 2004ƀ 2008ƀ1ǔ˨HGsup21 EEG3ȑ˞K˷ǥěǔ˨ɘ3atildeşKʞć1G

(a) copyUacute EEG 4D7ȳͶoumlɯKĠszlig3aumlɣė˃SrYɅ3ǓǎKˠiacuteGȰƓ-GɣɤH

ampSrY4ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFłHG FIT 4 2 3Ƞfrac12ͳ3ļǷǛǞƉͳ3ĽŌǞƉͿ-ȒƭHGotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ɥǴ

4aRZn^Pn3Ɵ1ŷęHGͶ3ʍ͵ecirc1ƀɯouml3đɔOacuteȪ=)ampđɔ^Pn1

đɔ˩ʙampOacuteĎȲ22Ϳɯ˘HG ɥŐE 5ƀƔ13đɔ^Pn3OacuteKͶaRZn^Pn-ś1ɯampOacuteȣG3aRZn^Pn3ɯoumlđɔĸ3ɯouml3 150KĮ)ampľĜ$3otildeĜ 0751otildeŀĕEgraveȉɥHGǴ 2 DZ1ƇHG3aRZnK EEG3ɥťG14$3ƀɯoumlđɔ^Pn3ɯouml3 60ͼsup210E0H50E0 ȳaRZn3ĕiacuteƄAĝ 2Ƞ10)FĕEgraveȉKŪ0A 12ƀĖĕG-

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(b) EEG2004 Ͷoumlɯ3ļǷǛ4 55MWh76oMWhͿotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 87MWh121oMWhͿ

HampEEG20043Ȃʩgtatilde-4(E3ǛAƀ 2frac120Fǝamp1ɯHG^Pn3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ɥǴ4˫3shyʩgt1ļ+ȪŚHGǠœ^PnKˬOtildeǭǝGaRZn-4ś3

ɯoumlđɔ^Pn3ɯouml3 150KĮGD13Ǵ4 060ͼ1ʮʯHG ȳͶoumlɯ3ļǷĕEgraveȉ4 62MWh86oMWhͿotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 91MWh127oMWhͿ

Hampȳɯ3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4˫3 EEG3shyʩgt1ļ+ȪŚHamp

(c) EEG2009 2009 ƀ3 EEG -4Ͷoumlɯ3ļǷĕǛ 502 MWh698 oMWhͿotildeŀĕEgraveȉ 92

ĎȲ22 oPk3đɔ^Pn4ǷĽġǮ-ɥampđɔb133-401ȲƧ

30

MWh128oMWhͿ1ǔ˨Hamp(E3ĕͳAQOoyM3ƈˬƀEƀɞ 1-frac12ƕ) 2009 ƀ3ƈˬaRZnĖĕGotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 92 MWh128 oMWhͿ10G2010ƀ3ƈˬaRZn-4 91MWh126oMWhͿ10GǠœ^PnˬOtildeǭǝaRZn-H5E1 5MWh5oMWhͿ3otildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideʙHGͶoumlʡʭ3^nAring5Ģȱǘ˺ǙͿ-GľĜ42014ƀ=-1ˬʹHGǝˠaRZnĝ 5MWh7oMWhͿ3ĽotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ť0GͶ 2010ƀ=-1ǰĀHampľĜǠœ3aRZn1ťG3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 7MWh10oMWhͿ1ŀdivideG ȳQOoyM14 35 MWh49 oMWhͿ3ļǷĕEgraveȉɥHGȳQOoyM

3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 130MWh181oMWhͿ-H 12ƀǓƱJHG2016ƀDFntilde1ƈˬHampaRZn-H5E1 2 MWh3 oMWhͿ3otildeŀĕEgraveȉǓƱJHG10GotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ǴƇ4 EEG3ˊɱ0shyʩgt1Ɇ G

32 lt8VUgravefrac12oumlRPacuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+

321 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

oPk1GͶoumlɯaRZn3^Pn3Ͷȯ4˒ɮ0GͶȯ3D^Pn4āȷun

ȷȮų-GĆ3^PnͶȯfrac12G0^Pn4oPkĆ1Gsup21 2007ƀ3deg˘ɱ0oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn1GH4ĝƀƄ1ɯHampſĹɱ0^Pnȣ

ōͶȯ3^Pn1ʑĸGaRZn-G3^Pn3szligːǨ4 2260ǨʋƄ10GcurrenƦHG

(a) BL0+para 2007ƀ 2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹŚȉaeligouml4ʢ 2 MW-Fʢ 653Ͷ 2 MW(C3Śȉ

aeligouml-)amp2007ƀ 2008ƀ1oPk-QOoyMƈˬ1ampĸĻ4ȣɱŪ0$3ampͶ3ǘŪ0ũˠȕ3QOoyMŅǘƈˬHG10)amp2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ˬ ʹHampǰ

ņˠȕ3QOoyM3Śȉaeligouml4 30 MW-FͶćɜ-ˬʹHGbrvbarAringż1Ņ)ampͶ 5ļ-ȒƭHGQOoyMKmbamp ƀ4oPkĆ3^Pn-ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯEHGHE3^Pn4oPk3đɔ

SNȣͶȯoslash)GampoPk3đɔSN3 903Ͷȯ3ľƯKaRZn^Pn1L-G

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4ŚȉaeligoumlͶ3gɷƑtz0E71Ͷ3ˊɱ0ˬ˩]dnŚȉaeligouml

gɷƑ3ȣɞͿ1D)ɮ0GoPk3ͶoumlaRZn3Ͷ4Śȉaeligouml 2 MWtz 100mgɷƑ 75 m-G2007ƀ1G3Ͷ93Ʒʱͳ4 1259kW1750okWͿ-H14ļʅʡʭʡ)ampdivideɱƷ]bnĠ=Hamp2008 ƀ4EgraveȉǤ3ampHĝ Ͷ93Ʒ]bn 1100kW1529okWͿEʢ 13701ŀdivideamp

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ14Ͷ3˛Ȑʿ$3reg3ʖʿ^wbNjAEligȐʿ3Igraveŗʚɡ]bnńŦŞ1DGŚǴɱ

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ʰƾ4 2007ƀ1 4571kW635okWͿ-2008ƀ4 4633kW644okWͿ-)amp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m1LǷɞ4 30Oumlɞ4 70)ampźɨǻ3đdivide4ƦŚ0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ

Oumleumlɲɞ4$HH 9555-)ampUacuteɱ0 FIT 1D)ʡʭ93NZdbIgrave˯HF=amp FITE3ŚͳǓƱAIgrave˯HGampĔTHORN3bZ˰Egravefrac120F$3ʫȁeumlAfrac120)G

31

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ĔTHORN4SrY3 FITD7GǛEƖEHG2007ƀ1ƈˬHampaRZn3ĽŌ4 819

MWh11384 oMWhͿ-ļǷǛ4 518 MWh72 oMWhͿ-GaRZn^Pn31ļ+3ĽŌiacuteƄ4 183ƀɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 mg4 EEG (2004) DEWI Magazine Nos 32 (2008) and 34 (2009) D7 Deutsche WindGuard GmbH ZSW3

amp1Acircƭamp EEG(2008)3Ɔț1GʉŕɱĽġǮEƖampȰlaquoʌ3Oacute4 Destatis (2009)1ļ+

322 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

sup23ƥĽ42008ƀsup21ƈˬHGcurrenŚ3ȳQOoyM1ļ+A3-G

(a) BL0+para ȳaRZn1DFȳ1ˬʹampͶ 12ļ3ˬOtildeşEʦ˩- 60 MWKɯ-GƦŚ

G3aRZn^Pn4 Borkum1G East FrisianŴ3ʢ 40 kmȫĜ3āȷ1frac14ʹȦȻʢ 30 m-G3ȷųE3ȦȻ3ʪȽɱEacuteɲKƖGamp14Śȉaeligoumlʢ 5 MW3ȳͶƛ˞10G3^Pn3szligːǨ4 3700Ǩ10GcurrenƦHG

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3ȳQOoyMKEHampľƯ1D7ȻȦĻ1ƈˬGamp3Ʒ]bn4ɪ

ſĹDFA3230kW 4490okWͿ3]bn3atildeˮ4ͶļʅŃƯzʗ-Gʡʭ93ʡ4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿ3micro-GampaRZn3Ʒ]bn14ʡʭ93

ʡ]bn4Ġ=H0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳͶoumlɯ3ʰƾ43ʰƾDFA˒0)GȷųEHG-

ǷĵEȳ3Ͷ=-3əlaquoħ3]bn0GE1ʰƾ14atildeD7ń3bgj

y3laquoacuteD7ƛ˞0ˡŤBIgraveʪȽʚɡBƴ˗ʚɡˌˋordf3ɴˡ)amp]bnĠ=HGoP

k3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ƀʰƾ4123kW171okWͿ10GcurrenƦHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȳ3aRZn3ƷŞ143ľĜDFAeumlɲɞƛ˞10Gȳ3Ƿeumlɲɞ12ͿA

Oumleumlɲɞ65ͿA3ľĜDFA0GOumlǷȣɞ7ť 3Ϳ4ƦŚHampaRZnȣŚ-Gś14aRZn3˺Ȓ1D)Ū)GAring5aRZnˇ

iquest-G4ub`n1DF˺G0Ϳė˃ƟAG

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ȳͶoumlɯ3ouml4EEG3 FIT1D)ƱƮHGƦŚampm1˧5EEG20041ļ+

otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 91 MWh127 oMWhļǷǛ4 619 MWh860 oMWhͿ-G3ampotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4ȷųE3aRZn^Pn30E71ȦȻ1ļ+ 145 ƀǓƱJHG10G

(f) Q54Q1 mg4 EEG(2004)D7 Deutsche WindGuard GmbH ZSW3amp1Acircƭamp EEG(2008) Ɔț1Gʉŕ

ɱĽġǮ1ļ+

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 3-354sup21G LCOEccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacuteK˘

32

Ugrave 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 2 2 NA 5 Ͷļǘ ļ 5 5 NA 12 ɯ szligːǨ 2260 2260 NA 3700

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA 20 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1259 (1750) 1373 (1908) NA 3230 (4490)

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 4571 (635) 4633 (644) NA 123 (171) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 149 (207) 152 (211) NA ndashndashndash $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

Ugrave 3-4 lt8uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 55 55 NA 65

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 95 95 NA 120 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 70 70 NA 70

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 30 30 NA 30 WACC ͼ 56 56 NA 68

Ǵ ƀ 13 13 NA 15 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 298 298 NA 298

FXn $US 139 139 NA 139

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard Destatis

Ugrave 3-5 lt8uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 79 (110) 78 (108) NA 84 (117) FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA 20

ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ

ƀ NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 16 16 NA 16 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

323 lt8oumlRBL0+yuml2008ĀrmicroQ1-1plusmnecirc

x 3-2EoPk3 LCOE85MWh 118oMWhͿǷĽġǮ-Yacute1ampđɔbDFA˒ccedilG$3ɡɦKsup21IJʆG

33

x 3-2 lt8uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup323

324 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) BL0+dj LCOE 3KAampEG34aRZn3śʷ-GʾEHGđɔb3ş

4ƀszligːǨ 2630ǨoPk3ļǷaRZn3szligːǨ4ƀ 2260Ǩ$HDFA4G1frac12

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4 1373 kW1908o kWͿ-đɔbDFA 76

kW106okWͿfrac12)ampLCOE1˧5H4ʢ 3MWh4oMWhͿȿ1ɸƎG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAʢ 7MWh10oMWhͿH

4ŚǴɏȏ3śǟQOoyMũˠȕ01DGcurrenOtildeĦ3Igraveʚ]bn3Ǥ)ampɡɦ1DG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 oPk3aRZnđɔb3Ÿɮ4ʢ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-H4˺Ȓ

31įG

(e) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4ƦŚ0

325 s_F(=2E

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯ14EEG1ļ+ FITɥHGoPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn EEG2004G4 EEG20093-ƲJHGF$Hsup2ń3ĔTHORN4˟=H0E1oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎGamp3reg3PdlOzKŨTHORNG4ƧIJHE$3currenƦA0

ĎȲ23 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4ĭǂcopyTHORN3ampđɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3

Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

34

x 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup324

326 aringmH7B

x 3-31ʆampD15MWh7oMWhͿ3yacuteYjɣ FH4szligːǨʰƾ3Ÿɮ1DGA3-G

33

-LoPk3QOoyM3Aring4Śȉaeligouml 2MW3Ͷ 5ļ-ȒƭHGaRZn3szligːǨ42260ǨƦŚG3m3ƦŚ1ļ+LCOE485MWh118oMWhͿLJŚHampNjAEligHamp FIT1DFaRZnɯǨȐʿ3yacuteYjampFʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ10GǛ3Oacute4 EEG-ˠŚHG

Ugrave 3-6 lt8Iumlsectpsup325

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

85 (118) NA 135

(188) ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

79 (110) NA 84

(117)

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

5 (7) NA 46

(64)

rOtildemiddot

BMU Leitszenarion 2009 ndash Bundesministerium fuumlr Umwelt Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit Langfristszenarien und Strategien fuumlr den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland ndash Leitszenario 2009 (2009)

Destatis Statistisches Bundesamt wwwdestatisde (last access December 2009) ĎȲ24 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAG ĎȲ25 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

35

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 32 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122007 (2008)

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 34 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122008 (2009)

Deutsche WindGuard Deutsche WindGuard GmbH on behalf o Zentrum fuumlr Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Wuumlrttemberg (ZSW) Vorbereitung und Begleitung bei der Erstellung eines Erfahrungsberichtes gemaumlszlig sect 20 EEG (2008)

EEG 2004 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich (2004)

EEG 2009 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich und zur Aumlnderung damit zusammenhaumlngender Vorschriften (2008)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

36

Aring 4Auml JN6

41 JN6uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

411 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬʹş42000ƀ3 447 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 2121 MW1ŀdivide3( 228 MWȳͶoumlɯ3ş0)GͶoumlɯ1DGƀ3ɯouml42000ƀ3 08 TWhE 2008ƀ3 43 TWh1ŀdivideGǞ2008ƀ3Uh3ʱȸouml4 119 TWh-)ampͶoumlɯ3ʁǴɶȔ42008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 2000 MWdivideG-G3ɶȔ3ƭ1DFˬʹȽgtG4ƈˬ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʱş4ʢ 4000 MW10G2009ƀ14950 MW3ȳͶoumlɯ3THORNǸŐHGȳͶoumlɯ3ɶȔOacute42020 ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 6000 MW 1G-Graquo EU 3aumlɣė˃SrYƿplusmn3ʻyacuteKɄGamp34 2020ƀ=-3ɶȔOacute45178 MW-G x 4-1 D7Ugrave 4-1 4-2 4D7ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71ěƀƄ3

ʁǴɱD7ǴɱɶȔOacute3currenɂ-Gszlig3şmg4ěƀǶ3mg-Gɏ1ɫƧ-GU

h4ǠœͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ14ɶȔOacuteKŚ0

x 4-1 JN6uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 and Rijksoverheid 2010

2000ƀ3ƀŨTHORNş4ĝƀǶ3ʦʏˬOtildeşĝ ş1ˬŚHampUgrave 4-21ʆȜģƀŨTHORNş4

ǑĐampͶoumlɯaRZn3ȜģˬOtildeşKĠL-GUgrave 4-2 1ʆamp2009 ƀE 2012 ƀ=- 2012ƀE 2020ƀ=-3ěǴ3ȜģƀŨTHORNş4ě3Ǵ3ſĹƀŨTHORNşKʆGsup23˘1ʆˬOtildeş4UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ1ļ+ˬOtildeş3currenɂ-GRijksoverheid 2010Ϳ

37

Ugrave 4-1 JN6IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0447 0485 0672 0905 1075 1224 1453 1641 1921 2727 6000

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0108 0228 0228 5178

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 andRijksoverheid 2010

Ugrave 4-2 JN6regwoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0038 0038 0187 0233 0170 0149 0229 0188 0280 0202 0409

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0 0 0 0619

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010Rijksoverheid 2010

412 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1ǝamp0 FIT ĽŌ˩ɩ-G SDE ˮȲ 7ŨTHORNHamp3 SDE bX3-Ͷoumlɯ3ś3ɯ]bn1˟ĜotildeŀĕEgraveȉoumlčEgraveȉ1divideǓƱJHGE1aumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗93Ʒ

1fynʌiacuteUacuteLjʹKɥGjnSDEotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3Ȃʩgtatilde-ȏ˪HG

42 JN6VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-Uh3deg˘ɱ0D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZnK˷ǥG

421 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh4 2003ƀ1szligːǨ|b-ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎG FITiacuteƄKŨTHORNamp2006ƀ=-4

szligːǨ 18000 Ǩ=-3aRZn1ťǰ- 10 ƀ FIT NjAEligHamp2008 ƀE3 FIT 1DGǓǎ4szligːǨ 2200 Ǩsup23aRZn1ť˖JHG10)ampſĹszligːǨ4ƀʢ2000Ǩ-$3ˊɱ0ʜı4ƀ 16002800Ǩ-G Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4FITǓǎ3˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZnKʆGĎȲ263

aRZn-4$3Pq`NlOz3ņĄǕɱ1ś˖ė˃0]bn3|KˬŚGdeg˘ɱ0

34 15 MW3ũˠȕQOoyM-ͶoumlɯaRZn3ņĄ 23 MW3ͶgɷƑ 90 mtz 60Έ80 mͿKAuml)G3ĸĻ-4iacuteˬEHFHE3ĸĻ-4tz 4060 m3 450800 kWͶˊɱ-G

(b) ccedil-1 aRZn3deg˘ɱ0Ʒ]bn4 1000kW1390okWͿE 1600kW2224okWͿ

=-Fˊ1Ʒ]bnszligːǨAŅ0)G

ˮȲ 7 SDE (stimulering duurzame energie) UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrYD7ɖAtildeʬ1GǓǎbX ĎȲ26 đɔaRZn134Ƿccedilǿ-ɥampđɔb13KƿA3-401ȲƧ

38

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3atildeˮ4ɯouml1D)ŃuumlGA3 9Έ12 kWh13Έ17 okWhͿż4ɥ

ŐE 5ƀ3^wbŋʢ1DGͿˬOtildeş1D)ŃuumlGA3 25kW35okWͿĸdegʡʭʡ]bnKĠͿ-GƔʿ3Oacute4aRZn1D)˒ɮ0Gś3ʰƾ4ƀ 23otildeĜ-ŀdivideGƦŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷKēǧampƀ|b3Ouml 80-˺GaR

ZnKɥG˚ugrave3NjAEligʿ-GͿǕƃ4ˇŹǷɞ 15D7Oumlɞ 6ͼKȜƦŚGoumlmiddotʇ4ub`n1ļ+˺K˖)GȰlaquoʌ4 255ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A 0ĔTHORNɅ4Yacuteəźľ-3Ǵŋʢ1DGoumlł-FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ1D)yacuteYj

K)Gyumlƽɱ0dividePdlOzfynSrYƷotildeƊ1D)NjAEligHG

3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4˹ʌė˃0ĔTHORNɅKƾamp0ɯbrvbarȐʿKĠ==0brvbarȐiquest1ɥHF1

43iacuteƄ1DFƯƖʌ 421ťeumlɲKƖGɯbrvbarȐʿAG

(f) Q54Q1 -ɥampmg4Uh3 FIT otildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3˩ʙ-ɥampđɔaRZn3agrave˘mg-

G (Lensink et al 2009 Cleijne et al 2010)

422 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh3ȳͶoumlaRZn-4ƈˬ˴ėKƖǰņ 50 m2ˠȕ3QOoyMKƈˬG-

Gƕ)deg˘ɱ0ȳaRZn3ˬOtildeş4 100Έ300 MW-Fʡʭ1NjAEligHGȜģɯouml4szligːǨ 3300Έ4000ǨɸƎ-G2008ƀ1 Prinses AmaliaQOoyMřƭamp1ʆmg14$3]bnȒ4ƛAĠ=H0

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4 2500Έ3500kW3475Έ4865okWͿ-G2008ƀ1řƭampaRZn4$

3ǘƀntilde1Famp˴ė3iacuteǼacute3ampȣɱũĺ3 V90ĺ 2 MWͶKɥG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ɥbrvbarȐʿ3ɥśʷ3Ū01DFʰƾ14ņ0ʄśƟœķGƀʰƾ4 90

kW125okWͿLJŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZn|b3˺ȒKɥF$3Ouml3otildeĜ4 50-GPrinces

AmaliaQOoyM3˺4aRZnȢ1˖)GWACC3ƦŚOacute4ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3Ƿ]bn3ordmOacute-H4 NuonShellƯDzG OWEZecirc3Ǡœ3ȳQOoyM1ɥEHampOacute-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A Ǡœ3QOoyM4Ǣ MEP˩ɩ1ļ+˚ugraveKĖF97MWh135oMWhͿ3ijŚ

FITĽŌKƖampfynPdlOz3˚ugraveɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 3mg4Ľɯ˘$3reg3agraveɱ1eumlɥ-GƥĽ1ļ+A3-ƥĽ1ŸɮGľĜ4ʆHamp

ƥĽ1ļ+m[-˚)G

39

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘1ěƀ1ƦŚampD7ȳͶoumlɯ3OacuteKʆ2007ƀ3aRZn]bn4 2008ƀǨ

ɏ3n1G-ʆGUgrave 4-5 3ouml3źľEgraveȉ14ĕƊ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnǴŋʢ3otildeƊɞĠ=HG

Ugrave 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 1 15 120 NA Ͷļǘ ļ 1 5 60 NA ɯ szligːǨ 2000 2200 3350 NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 15 NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1120 (1557) 1325 (1842) 3315 (4608) NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 40 (56) 24 (33) 92 (128) NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) NA NA NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

Ugrave 4-4 JN6uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 5 5 5 NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 15 15 12 NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 50 NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 50 NA WACC ͼ 60 60 79 NA

Ǵ ƀ 10 15 10 NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 255 255 255 NA

FXn $US 139 139 139 NA

Ugrave 4-5 JN6uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (81) 56 (78) 59 (82) NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 663 (922) 28 (39) 97 (135) NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ 37 20 44 NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

43 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ƛ˞0˴ėKƖG3ampogP0)

G

40

431 JN6uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 4-2 JN6rmicroQ1plusmnecircxpsup327

(b) BL0+dj Uh3Ͷ3ːɞ4ʢ 25-FszligːǨ 2200 ǨͿđɔb3 30DFAfrac12FIT 1DG

˚ugrave4szligːǨ 2200 ǨKGG4 SDE ˠiacute3˳ʧKʾƬ$HDFAfrac12ˬŚHGͿamp2200ǨDFAŅɯGamp3PdlOz4ŚHGE1˞0˞į4B4FͶȯ-G

432 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4Đ3ĪͲ1EcircGė˃ƟGszligːǨ 2200Ǩsup2KɯGPdl

Oz4ŚHGͶ3ˬ˩$HHBBɮ0)Fƕ)EgraveȉŘ0Gė˃Ɵ4ǃ-0

Aring5ĝ ɯȗKAuml)AgzoũľĜƷ]bnfrac12szligːǨŀdivideG

(b) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ0)Gį4ĸdeg3-Fƀʢ 10kW15okWͿ-G

(c) ccedilntildeacirciacute-113T-1 đɔbȣGUh3Ͷoumlɯ4Ȱlaquoʌȣɱfrac12 (255ͼ) eumlɏAGǑĐ]bn

4ʾƬ0

433 s_F(=2E

Uh3ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ43ʍ͵3PdlOziacuteƄ3ơƣKĖG-G$30A34 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ-2007 ƀ=-1HK˞ȨampaRZn1ťMEP ˮȲ 81DF 10 ƀijŚotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligH2008 ƀsup21HK˞ȨampaRZn3ľĜ4SDE 1DF 15 ƀŃuumlotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligHG3 FITiacuteƄ1divideaRZn3ľĜ4ǰņƷ]bn 600kW834okWͿ1ťƷ]bn3 443ʌdž3Ʒ˚ugrave (EIA) D7otildeƊɞ 13fynKeumlɥG

ĎȲ27 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ ˮȲ 8 MEP (Milieukwaliteit Elektriciteitsproductie) Uh3oumlɣɤ1GȰƓ

41

-G

x 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup328

434 aringmH7B

Uh3yacuteYj42007 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn1˧5Ugrave 4-6 đɔͿʢ ndash36 MWhndash50oMWhͿPpb3Oacute10)GH4Đ3MEP3 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3ˬ˩3Ș1DGA3-˚ugraveͳ3ļɵ0)ampoumlEgraveȉK 2Έ3 MWh3Έ4 oMWhͿfrac12ƦŚamp1DGoumlEgraveȉ 6~8 MWh 1ǤG1HŪ0AoumlEgraveȉ4ͶoumlaRZn4ż1ͺoumlɱ0A310)ampƔʮiacuteƄ-G SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ1ļ+ 2008 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn143ȘĕFHyacuteYj4 ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿBBPpb3Oacute10)GěʍaRZn3ɯ]bn3Ž4ndash3 DFA4G1ņɏ1ȲƧG3ampndash3MWh4oMWhͿPpb3Oacute4eKņĮGA3-40 ȳͶoumlɯ3b3yacuteY4Ɗʯ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-)ampH4ɷDžƖampyacuteƥ

Ľ1ļ+A3-40Princes AmaliaQOoyM3Ȫʙ1İɣ amp4ǥE-G

44

Uh4ŧǽ1A 2020ƀ1AD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Dzdz0ɶȔOacuteKŚGɠķ3 SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ4HKśɠGamp3ǰA˞0k-G43 Eacute3ccedilǿʫȁEUh3brvbarAring1GyacuteYj4ʹ˒-40JG ugraveKƖampɯouml4szligːǨ 2200Ǩ=-1iacuteHG3ǘOacute4Uh3Ͷȯ1ċampA3-G2200Ǩsup23ɯ1ťGPdlOz4ŚHFHAƷ]bnfrac123į-Gė˃ƟGʰƾ4ĸdeg3ampȣɱ

0)G

ĎȲ28 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

42

Ugrave 4-6 JN6Iumlsectpsup329

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

91 (126)

94 (131)

166 (231) NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

127 (177)

96 (133)

161 (224) NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash36 (-50)

ndash3 (-4)

5 (7) NA

rOtildemiddot

Cleijne JW SM Lensink and CJ Faasen (2010) SDE Wind op land met vollasturen en differentiatie [SDE wind onshore with full load hours and differentation] ECN-E--10-001 Petten January 2010

Lensink SM JW Cleijne M Mozaffarian AE Pfeiffer S L Luxembourg and GJ Stienstra (2009) Eindadvies basisbedragen 2010 [Final advice SDE premium base rates 2010] ECNKEMA ECN-E--09-058 Petten November 2009

Rijksoverheid (2010) Nationaal actieplan voor energie uit hernieuwbare bronnen Richtlijn 200928EG [National Renewable Energy Action Plan Directive 200928EG] Den Haag June 2010

Statistics Netherlands (2010) online databank httpstatlinecbsnl VoorburgHeerlen August 2010

ĎȲ29 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

43

Aring 5Auml 1CN

51 1CNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bP3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯŮ1G=ampɚŚ3 EU 3ɶȔ1ļ+ CO2ǃaeligethȿ3amp

1 2020 ƀ 2030 ƀ1ƦŚHGɶȔOacuteKʆE1ˠiacute3ȂʩgtK˷ǥGraquo$30Ȓƭ˞ʥK˟ɷordfȾoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3]bn3ƐKŪ0Gamp1ɠķ˖JHGͿ E1 2008ƀ1GbPźľ3deg˘ɱ0QOoyM3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) K˷ǥ$3sup3

ŚKregĴ1GͶoumlɯ3]bnȣG

511 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac12frac34laquo

2009ƀǶǨɏ-Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4 19149 MW1bP3oumlʡʭ1 3ɭɶ1ņ0Ʌ0)GbP3Ͷoumlɯɯ4 90ƀdegĄ51Ő=F2001ƀsup24ǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşƀſĹ-ʢ 1800MWdivideHampˠiacuteǔȜHamp 2004ƀ 2007ƀ14Ĵɟplusmn 4362004D7 6612006Ϳ3şņŽ1ŀdivideamp3ˠiacute3ǔȜ1DF$HKeumlɥampǝˠaRZn3ʑ(EumlHamp

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯouml42009ƀ3bP3SrYʱ˞3ʢ 14KĈG x 5-14ŅĴȣ3ťƀ-G 2008ƀ=-1bP1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3H=-3ʦʏˬOtildeş

ƀŨTHORNşKʆG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3mg4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3SrY˖uuml˩ɩNREAPͿ1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)2020ƀ3currenɂ4SrY˞3 20Kaumlɣė˃SrY- EU3ɶȔƭ1ğampǘOacute-G

x 5-1 1CNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

x 5-1 4bP-H=-1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşD7notƔˬʹHG˟=HGˬOtildeşKʆG=ampƀŨTHORNşKx 5-21ʆ2009ƀbPǕƃ4 2010ƀE 2012ƀ=-3ěƀ1ˬʹG MWşKiacuteGamp3otildeƎKŚG1amp=ampoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3ƐKȿ Gamp3˩ɩKnotƔ3Ȱplusmn1ʩgtL-ɯ˘ampszlig3aumlɣė˃SrY]aRr`3

Ĝ˩ş 6000 MW4ʱoumlĕƊ3 25KĈH4ʪȽĊȗ-4ɚ1]bn-GͿ

44

bP1GȳͶoumlɯ30Ł4ņȍ0-F3ampȮų3ȦȻ 50m 10)Gƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ-4ͳ0ļʅ˞0F$3ampHE3aRZn3ś˖ė˃Ɵ4iacute

HGE1aacuteʡɏ-4ȺĀŇɓWbļĸ1ˬʹHG]uPo^PZWbgw3

ɯ1DG~nrjZœķGampNZdbşEHampA310)G

Ugrave 5-1 1CNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

16 22 34 49 62 85 100 116 151 167 23 35

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 5-2 1CNoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

16 06 12 15 13 23 15 16 35 16 15 14

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

512 s_CcedilN3N9A

Ȱɱ1currenƦHGEacuteɲKĖGamp14ͶoumlɯaRZnKɚecirc3iacuteƄ131ccedil͵Gƛ˞G

ʟĴ3ȉ˴ŚiacuteƄĝȓͿH4ͶoumlɯaRZnʡʭ1UacuteYacuteDžʯ-GũłbrvbarȐʿAacuteocircouml

KĕE250E0Ϳamp=ampEgraveȉˠiacuteHGamp-GĴɟƿplusmn 6612007-˘ǥHampD1Ͷoumlɯ3ǓƱbX14ˠiacuteǛbXźľĎɡ3 2G

ˠiacuteǛbX4QOoyMƯDzʿƸampǴ1GͶoumlɯ3ʻyacuteɱ0ijŚĕƊ

Egraveȉ-Gx 5-23ǘOacuteͿ ǰʨɱ0Egraveȉ 1Ǩ3ɪEgraveȉoumlPdlOz1ļ+oumlčźľEgraveȉ3ʩgtĜJ-Ȫ=GI3źľĎɡ4ĽŌ13AĤ5HGƕ)ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿĖĕGǛ4

Egraveȉ1ŷęHG10F3Egraveȉż1frac12ľĜ4ǰfrac12Egraveȉsup2-H5ˬ

EHGx 5-34ˠiacuteǛ3đɔOacuteKʆG

x 5-2 Ucircgntilde1)QEAcirc ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

45

ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ4ntildeǡźľ3ɯ˩ɩKNjaeligcurrenɂKɥ3˩ɩś3ɯouml3currenɂ˶ŸKȿE

D1GE1==0ĸĻ1ƈˬHampQOoyMɸuml1˚Ugrave-˶ŸKŪ0Gamp

1==0aRZn[ĀHG3`bl1DFN``bl3ȴɥ

ʬ˺ǙKǰĀG-$3]bn34ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿǓƱ)G2008 ƀ4ʢ 15 MWh205oMWhͿ-)amp ˫3Oacute4Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120071D)ȸʿEgraveȉƿǘ (CPI) 1ļ+ǭǝH2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝ

ɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp x 5-34Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073ǟ˖sup2Ɣ3 FITǛiacuteƄ3ŃuumlKʆampA3-G2007ƀĴɟƿplusmn 6612007

1DF CPI1Ȯ) FITǔ˨HG10F2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp2010ƀ14ǭǝHampOacutePpb10FntildeƀKĮ)ampH4 CPIe1)ampamp-G bP3ʡʭɥʿ-G Red Electrica de Espantildea (REE) 1DH5ˬ Otildeş3 94ijŚEgraveȉĕU`

1D)ɥHGampčoumlźľEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ƐH0x 5-4Ϳ

x 5-3 ~BINcentIcircceyuml~[umlāntildeĀ ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

x 5-4 dividejo~uumljfrac14divideethyuml2008Ā ǛΆ Spanish TSO (REE)

Ͷoumlɯ3ņccedil4čźľ-ɷDžłHGampĽ4Egraveȉ1ņŷęHŇɓWbEgraveȉȦouml

ɯ3ɛȯ0E71Ĵźľ1G CO2 Egraveȉ3Egraveȉ1ƐG3amp 2008 ƀ14ſǡEgraveȉ4 6443MWh8956oMWhͿ0F2007ƀ3 3935MWh5470oMWhͿK 64Į)ampH4ɠķ=-1˫HampEgraveȉ-ǰAͳ-G Ͷoumlɯ3źľĕƊEgraveȉKx 5-31oumlčEgraveȉKx 5-51ʆYacute1ampD1Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073brvbar

Aring-43Egraveȉ4E=-3ʜıatilde1GſǡoumlčEgraveȉ1ļ+EgraveȉĽŌ3Ĝ˩Oacute-G

46

x 5-5 dividejBQK[umllcedilyuml2003Ą2009Ā ǛΆOMEL and Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

52 1CN 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-2008 ƀ1GbP3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKHKreg3đdivideĴ1GͶoumlɯɯ3ěʍmȣG

521 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

ɚecirciquestiacute13`blKeumlɥGamp14bP3QOoyM3ˠȕ 50 MWK40E0ˬ ʹampQOoyM3ſĹˠȕ4ʢ 25 MW-˩ ʙQOoyM3ˬOtildeşK 2007ƀA 2008ƀA 30MWsup3ŚG Ğɶ3ɥǨ4Śȉaeligouml-ƀ 1700ǨE 2350Ǩ=-==-G2008ƀ3szligĴſĹ4 2085

ǨͿ=ampaRZn3đɔOacute4 2007ƀ- 2200Ǩ2008ƀ- 2150Ǩ-)amp bP-ɥEHGszlig3ʪȽm-4aRZn3ɥǴ4 20ƀGraquoH4Q

OoyM3śʷ4E0Ϳ2007ƀ 2008ƀ14aRZn3Py^PZK 20ƀG

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹˠȕ4 1985 kW-2007ƀ3 1621 kWEJ1ŀdivideamp3m-ȏ˪G34 2000 kW3Ͷ0J(3QOoyM-4 2 MW3Ͷ 15ļͿ-G

x 5-6 2008THORNOacuteuumlegrave2bszlig ǛΆ Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

47

(b) ccedil-1 ƀ3Ʒʱͳ0)amp34Zb III D7 IV ˮȲ 93ņĺͶoumlɯ˙ʹˬʹHampE-

FƎeacuteEĶʡʭ93ʡBěʍʌcurrenɂHampJ-40 $H1AJEƀ4ĎǺǛ]bn3frac121DFͶ3]bnȿŪG=ampǕĊȗˠiacute3

Ńǭ1DFͶ3˞Afrac12ampQOoyM93Ʒʱͳ1ĈGͶ3]bn4ʢ 70Έ73ͼ-G3]bn4ĎǺǛ3Egraveȉɠķ3[jo]o1Ɇ ampƛ˞0ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵ1šDž1EcircG

2007ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn14Ʒ]bn4 1233kW1714okWͿ2008ƀ14 1250kW1738okWͿLJŚHG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾAaeligoumlƶiacuteȒatildeoumlȸ3amp3oumlǛˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵŀamp1DFŀdivide

Gʰƾ4 2007ƀ 1910MWh2655oMWhͿ2008ƀ 1963MWh2729oMWhͿLJŚHG100ͼŃuumlͿHE3]bn4|3ŃuumlƟdegǯĦ3eumlɥė˃Ɵƛ˞HGɕʶƴ˗ʿBȗȋ˙ʹ)amp˞į1G Ͷoumlɯȗ3^Pc4ƼņGͶȯ3ǰAD^Pn4-1eumlɥHGampŚȉǨ4ȿŪ

G10G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȞĘɱ1bP-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯKbPĴatilde3˖3oumlD7ŘŚampȰɱȂ

ʩgt1ļ+aRZn3yacuteiquestiacute1D)˺amp$H1AJEȵuumlƟKȘamp˺iacute

Ƅ3amp13 2ƀ-ɛȯŃĀAgraveE3ƺIgrave1DGIgrave˯ƛ˞10)G ˺]bn42007ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ1ˬŚHG2007ƀ2008

ƀAǷOuml3ȣɞ4 2ť 8-G2008ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A źľ93ł1DGĔTHORN42007ƀ1 394MWh548oMWhͿ2008ƀ1 644oMWh895o

MWhͿ-)amp3ĔTHORN1ť2007ƀ1 348MWh483oMWhͿ2008ƀ14 215MWh299oMWhͿ˰EgraveHamp FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideHGFITǕʘǴ4(E3bA 20ƀ1ijŚHG

(f) Q54Q1 1ʆampmg4bPͶoumlɯąmiddot (AEE) D7 Intermoney śǟampʃʐ1ļ+A3-G

522 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

bP3ȳͶoumlɯSN4 62SN1ccedilotildeHHE3SN-4ͶoumlɯˠiacuteHGHE3SN1ťTHORNǸ˖JHG10G3śɱPq`NizK5currenɂHGQOo

yM3ˠȕ4ʢ 1000 MW-G

(b) ccedil-1 mg0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig mg0

ˮȲ 9 Zb III4sectʬ˵Ũɯȗ (DFIG) D7ccedilŚȉ3]ugKɥampͶZb IV4ĝǴɯȗD7y

Śȉ]ugE0GͶccedil͵HG3ccedil͵ǞȰ3˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

48

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mg0

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A mg0

(f) Q54Q1 mg0

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 5-25-54sup23 LCOEccedilǿ-ɥampm[3ntildeNjǼacuteKʆA3-G]bn3sup3Ś4szlig 2007

ƀ 2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZnK˘A3-2008ƀnǨ3-˘ʆG

Ugrave 5-3 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 30 30 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ 15 15 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ 2200 2150 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1233 (1714) 1250 (1738) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 191 (266) 196 (272) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA

Ugrave 5Ă4 1CNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 9 10 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 6 7 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 NA NA Ǵ ƀ 15 15 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 30 30 NA NA

FXn $ 139 139 NA NA

Ugrave 5-5 1CNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 53 (74) 54 (75) NA NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 34 (47) 35 (49) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ

ͼ 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 20 20 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 36 (51) 37 (52) NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

49

523 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 5-7 1CNrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup330

(b) BL0+dj bP3ͶoumlɯaRZn4đɔbDFAˬOtildeeumlɥɞfrac12ͶȯbP3szligːǨ1Ɛ

GampbP3 LCOE4đɔb3 LCOEDFA 18MWh25oMWhͿ0)Gđɔb3ſĹːǨLJŚ 2680Ǩ-G31ťbP4 2150Ǩ0)G szligːǨ4bP3 LCOE đɔb3 LCOE 3Ÿɮ13ǰA˞0Ńǘ-GͶȯ1divide

ʰƾAđɔbKĮ)FH14ĸdegD7ĸĻBˇȬiquest˞ȨGeumlɲɞAĠ=HG LCOE33˷ǥ0Gʖ 33˞į4˺]bn-F3ͳ4aRZn3WACCD7ǰʨɱ

1ě3Ʒ1˞ȨHGƷĔɲɞ (ROI) KŀdivideG

(c) ccedil-1 bP3Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4ʢ 1250kW1738okWͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 200

kW278 okWͿŘbP-4Ʒ]bnfrac12ampLCOE 4 10 MWh14 oMWhͿfrac120G ǑĐ]bn4QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘʨpoundamp3ɯˬOtilde3˥iquest]bnKĠampͳ-ʱƷ]

bn3ʢ 3ͼKĈG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bP3brvbarAring1Gyacuteɛȯ1ˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlɲɞ4đɔbDFA0)G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig bP-4ʰƾđɔbDFA0)GbP3ʰƾʱͳ14ʌĸdeg

ʚɡ]bnKĠamp3ŃuumlĠ=HGnotƔ3ʪethȿoumlˇŞȸǛ3ǤˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ

˜Ɵ3=F1DFʰƾAŀdivideG˟gt-G ſĹbP3ʰƾ4ʢ 196MWh272oMWhͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 7

MWh10oMWhͿ

ĎȲ30 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

50

524 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

Yacute1ampD1bP14 FIT iacuteƄͶoumlɯ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄͿźľiacuteƄźľEgraveȉͶoumlɯ3ĽŌͿ 23ǓƱiquestʡG2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ3ʢ 91ͼKźľiacuteƄ1DFłampH4ɯȐʿDFŅ3ĔTHORNKƖEHGamp-G x 5-8 4ĔTHORN3ŃǘȥǛͿͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOz3ŃǘbP1GźľiacuteƄ

3ĽŌͿKȣampA3-G

x 5Q-8 1CNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup331

525 aringmH7B

bP3mccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿ-G3EſĹbP3ͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOzEaRZnɯ

3yacute˞acuteKɄamp-G3ăccedil0Xj`yKƖGJG

53 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 5Ă6 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+psup332

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

76 (106)

83 (115) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

87 (121)

86 (120) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash11 (ndash15)

ndash3 (ndash4) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2009) ldquoEoacutelica 09 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Julio 2009)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileANUARIO20COMPLETO5B15Dpdf

ĎȲ31 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ32 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

51

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2008) ldquoEoacutelica 08 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Junio 2008)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee- publicaAEE_anuario_ingles08pdf

AEE ndash Intermoney (2006) ldquoEstudio de costes del sector eoacutelico Realizado por Intermoney para AEE (2006)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee-publica060612-Gen-EolicaEsp- PRALpdf

Comisioacuten Nacional de la Energiacutea (CNE) wwwcnees

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Red Eleacutectrica de Espantildea (REE) Spanish TSO wwwreees Royal Decree 6612007 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacionRD_661-2007-REpdf Royal Decree 4362004 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacion(36)RD436_2004pdf Spanish Market Operator (OMEL) wwwomeles

52

Aring 6Auml 1$QN

61 1$QNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bQRm3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙ0E71 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿK˷ǥG

611 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş42004ƀ1 474 MW)amp3 2008ƀǶ14 937 MW0)Gx 6-1ͿbQRmĆ3ȳQOoyM3ˬOtildeş4 2007ƀ14 110 MW-)amp=ampqN`N133Ƀ-3ɯAEHG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯcurrenɂ4EUdivideɳĴ3ěĴaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 3mg1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)

x 6-1 1$QNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_Uacuteuacute

ǛΆVinkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 and European Commission 2010 Ugrave 6-14bQRm1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=amp

Ugrave 6-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 6-1 1$QNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

220 220 272 322 381 429 470 560 698 951 2065 4365

ȳ 10 20 23 23 23 23 23 23 133 133 150 182

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

53

Ugrave 6-2 1$QNoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

ndashndashndash 05 51 50 59 48 41 90 138 253 278 288

ȳ ndashndashndash 10 25 0 0 0 0 0 110 0 4 4

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

612 s_CcedilN3N9A

bQRm-4aumlɣė˃SrY1DGɯ3ǓǎʘĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ (TGC) KŨTHORNG$3ɶɱ42016ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 17 TWh1ŀB-G3ɶȔOacuteK2020ƀ=-1ė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 25 TWh1GE1OacuteGampɠķ3iacuteƄ3ǔȜȏ˪HG=ampbQRmsQR3aacute`bl3Ȓʝ1ğampordfȾ˖J

HG 2008 ƀ=-4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ˖ɢĿĽŌ13AĤ5HGijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) Ͷoumlɯ

1ɥHamp3ɢĿĽŌ134ȳͶoumlɯ14 2009ƀ=-eumlɥė˃-)amp=amp 2003ƀ1vPjnaRZn3Ǔǎ˩ɩŐHampȳͶoumlɯţaringȥNtildeȎȀĸŻ-3Ͷoumlɯ)

ampˉģȻ˟0HampaRZn12008 ƀE 2012 ƀ=-3Ǵ1 3710 5160 oͿ3currenʙotildeƎEHG

2006 ƀʈǕƃ3ɢĿƐccedilǿ1Gˠiuml0E71ǝˠͶoumlɯaRZn3˴ėdbʞɬĀH25 MW=-3QOoyM4ˇȬiquest1ŭaeligH5ˬʹ-G0)amp ͶɅ3eumlɥ1GƥĽKƁcedilGampbQRmǕƃ3Ũ3Ͷoumlɯ3eumlɥ1GĴatilder

jnZĎȲ33ȒʝHamp3rjnZ1DFͶoumlɯ3˩ɩʘŚD7˴ŚʋuacuteOslashoumlbrvbarȐ3ɯ

Ůʰƾʚɡ1Gʀ˾KȻbQRm3ͶoumlɯɯaRZnKEumlH

G E1Ͷoumlɯ3]mOrgKɥɯbrvbarȐʿEcircƎŬ0E71ĸUcircĸĻĴ3ě|1

GEcircʿ3ordfȵEumlKIJ)G

62 1$QNVUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

621 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bQRm-43aRZn3szligːǨ4 2600Έ3050 ǨĽġHGżbQR

m3Ͷoumlɯj1ʆHGszligːǨ4ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿNjaeligampǘŒKĮ)

G3amp˩ʙ-4bQRm3aRZn3ǰʨɱ0ͶoumlɯǨKĽġHampʜı3 2600ǨͿG

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3aRZn42008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZn3]bnD7ɯoumlēǧ

Hampdeg˘ɱaRZnŚʻHamp Ƿ]bn4ampF 12171915kW1692Έ2662okWͿ=-Fmccedilǿ-4 1591kW2212okWͿsup3Śamp

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3ijŚccedil4ſĹ 0004 kW0006 okWͿŃuumlccedil4ʢ 11 MWh15 o

ĎȲ33 httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse đɔ

54

MWhͿLJŚG3Ńuuml4 7 MWh10 oMWhͿE 24 MWh33 oMWhͿ=-FvPjnaRZn1Gʰƾ4ż1ŃuumlņɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒

ɮ0)G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 Ugrave 6-51ʆD1mccedilǿ-4OumleumlőKƷŞżĽġG 5˟L-GͶoumlɯ1Ʒ

GparaȐ3middot˩Ľġ3ccedilǿ-420ͼƍOuml]bnʆHGbQRm3paraȐccedilǿEŨaeligampƛ˞0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞʫ7macrOumleumlőɞK 5LJŚampľĜͶoumlɯ3]bnKũ˰EgraveG10F20

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ǵŋʢ1DGźľ93oumlłŨTHORNHGĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ

23ĔTHORN3ȵH1D)KƖG(E3ĔTHORNɅAʄśƟż12008ƀ=-FITĽŌiacuteƄAɥHFͶoumlɯaRZn4 2 MWh3 oMWhͿŪͳ3ĽŌKĖamp

(f) Q54Q1 LCOE˩ʙ3mg4˫3D0ɥǓǎ˩ɩ3ʫȁD7Ĵatilde3_3amp1bQRmSrY

Ŭ=ampmg)amp˜ǘ3ƥĽɅ1ļ+A3-GǑĐ]bn4 Svensk Vindenergi (2009) 3mgKAumlɥampbQRm3Ͷoumlɯ˩ɩ1Gʭ˩Oacute4bQRmSrYŬȢƀɯ˘

GĽġǮ ES20103 ldquoVindkraft statistic 2009 (Wind power statistics 2009)rdquoD7 Vindkraft Statistik 20081ļ+G2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯǨ4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ3mgKAumlɥGE1Ͷoumlɯ3ɯȐbrvbarʿEʆmg3NjAEligKĖamp=ampEcircGotildeƊɞKǥE1Gampmiddot˩ǛKđɔampE14˚Ǜ O2 0E71 AriseȇƉźľ3ŨTHORN1GbrvbarȐaeligɘəEŦŞ3Ƨ˟KƊɥamp

622 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

2008ƀǨɏ-ŨTHORNHampbQRmǰņ3ȳaRZn4Lillgrunden3 11 MW3aRZn-)amp3aRZn4 Vattenfall 2004ƀ1Ɗʮ2007ƀ1ʡʭ1ʡHampLillgrundenaRZn-4 Siemens3 23 MWͶ MKII 48ļAumlɥHG$3( 13ļ4 2004ƀsup2ntilde1ʡʭ1ʡHGbQRm3ǰǝaRZn4 3 MW3Ͷ 10ļKOtildeamp GaumlsslingegrundaRZn-H4 VaumlnernɃ3Ģ 7Έ13m1ļʅKˬʹampqN`N133aRZn-G

Ugrave 6-3 LillgrundenBL0+Z

Lillgrundenmg Ά ļɆȷDF 115 m gɷƑΆ 924 m ʱʏΆ 6734 m2 iacuteƗǞȰΆ ėŃxjiD7ėŃƄ gƄΆ 6Έ16 rpm ǰņYacuteʔƄΆ 280 kmh gΆ 60 t pdΆ 82 t gΆ 110 t LJŚƀɯoumlΆ 6875500 kWh ˬOtildeeumlɥɞΆ 35ͼ ſĹͶΆ 85 ms

55

Ugrave 6-4 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 235 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 41 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2600 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1591 (2212) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 0004 (0006) NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 16 (222) NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 6-5 1$QNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 12 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 87 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 13 NA NA WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 47 NA NA

Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 28 NA NA

FXn SEKeuro ndashndashndash 942 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

Ugrave 6-6 1$QNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 50 (70) NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 25 (35) NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 2 (3) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 1 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

623 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

x 6-2 1ʆD1bQRm3 LCOE 4đɔbDFʢ 1 MWh1 oMWhͿfrac120)G

56

x 6-2 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1psup334

(a) BL0+dj bQRm3szligːǨ4đɔbDFAH4ͶoumlɯaRZn1eumlɥ-Gĵĸʏ

^[ampreg3Țŵ˽ĴDFAņampƎɓ3-G

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3Ʒ4oumlɯaRZnTGC `bl2001 ƀEŨTHORNͿ0E71Ǡœ3 NordPool

ʡʭ1995ƀEoumlĕƊͿ3amp1đɔbDFABB0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig đɔbbQRm3ʰƾ3Ÿɮ4ǰũ3A3-H4^1DGė˃Ɵʹ˒

-40

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bQRm3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12H4bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ93Ʒ1

GbZ3|frac12E-FbQRm3Ͷoumlɯɯ1GʪEƎɓ3˧G

x 6-3 1$QNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup335

ĎȲ34 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

57

624 s_CcedilN3N9A

ĔTHORN4 1Ϳoumlł1DGĔTHORN2Ϳ[˯Ǯł1DGĔTHORN3ͿFITE3Ūͳ3ĔTHORN2009ƀ1ƆțͿ3 3-ȒƭHG ĔTHORN4źľE33ȵH-GampʄśƟņ0b-4ȥǛ4 50 MWh

70 oMWhͿ-ŘŚG˟0H[˯ǮEgraveȉ4ʢ 25 MWh35 oMWhͿ)amp2009ƀ1OacuteHamp

625 aringmH7B ſĹɱ0aRZn14ouml3źľEgraveȉ TGCiacuteƄ3˚UgraveKʩgtĜJG-ăccedil1]bnK

-GD-G

Ugrave 6-7 1$QNIumlsectpsup336

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 75

(104) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash8

(ndash11) NA NA

63 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 6-7 1ʆampD1bQRm3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˇŹǷ]bnD7Ouml]bnfrac12amp1ǷdivideſĹĎEgrave (WACC) ȣɱfrac120)GD-GaRZn3AEligʬ4Ouml1DGǷ˺1DGA3-macr3˺Ǵ4 20ƀ-G$HDFAmacrǴʁľĜA$EG˕Ǵ3ʨpoundǨ1ʸFHG bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ4ȞĘ=ampƀƞ1ƭG2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrY

ɅK 25 TWh1GɶȔKƭGamp14ͶoumlɯKE1ɯŮƛ˞G

rOtildemiddot

Dagens Industri wwwdise 2010-03-16 Storm kring vindkraftsbolag

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

E24 wwwe24se 2010-03-16 Vindkraftsbolagen anklagas foumlr glaumldjekalkyler Nationellt naumltverk foumlr vindbruk (national network for winduse) httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse

Svensk Vindenergi 2009 Vindkraftverk ndash kartlaumlggning av aktiviteter och kostnader vid nedmontering aringterstaumlllande av plats och aringtervinning

Vinkraftstatistik 2009 ES 20103 2010 Swedish Energy Agency available at

ĎȲ35 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ36 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

58

httpwwwenergimyndighetenseGlobalPressPressmeddelandenVindkraftsstatistik202009p df

Vindkraftstatistik 2007 ES 20082 2008 Swedish Energy Agency available at httpwwwenergimyndighetenseen

59

Aring 7Auml 11

71 11uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bPb3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙacirciquestɱ14 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿ3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1GbPb4atildeĴ-GampȳaRZn4œķ0ǪˤIgrave3ampɃȭĸĻ4ɠķͶoumlɯ^PnEńHG

711 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş41996ƀ3 2 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 14 MW1ŀdivideampͶoumlɯ1DGƀɯouml4 2000ƀ3 18 GWhE 2008ƀ3 2020 GWh1ŀdivideampH1ť 2008ƀ3ʱ˞ouml4 587 TWh-Gɠķ˩ɩEHGaRZn1D)2012ƀ14 65 MW3ɯė˃10GLJŚHGǕƃ3SrYǕʘ-4 2030ƀ1 44 MWKɯGɶȔKljG

x 7-1 11uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

Ugrave 7-14bPb1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 7-24ĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-1 11IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

28 28 451 455 456 866 116 116 116 136 176 65 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

60

Ugrave 7-2 11oacute_ethyumlMWĀ

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

28 00 170 065 001 350 290 002 000 200 400 150 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

712 s_CcedilN3N9A

bPb-4 2008 ƀ1oPkĝȓ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄFITͿKŨTHORNamp3`bl4LJŚHG LCOEKamp3A3-GFIT 1Ġ=HG34oumlźľEgraveȉ[ouml3Oacute-GͶoumlɯ14bPb3 FIT4 110MWh153oMWhͿΈ130MWh181oMWhͿ1ijŚHG

72 11VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

721 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZn42 MW3Ͷ 6ļKOtildeamp Juraű˅Ȕ 1000Έ1200 mͿ3

QOoyM-GbPb1GͶoumlaRZn3L2 MW3ͶgɷƑ 82 mtzʢ 8 0mͿKɥG3ĸĻ-4NZdbiacuteHGamp1gɷƑg31ˬEHFŚȉaeligouml 800Έ1000 kWtz 40~60 m3ͶKeumlɥG

(b) ccedil-1 bPb1Gdeg˘ɱ0aRZn3ě3Ʒ]bn4ampF 1790 kW2488 kWͿ-G

Țŵ1GͶ93Ʒ]bn3otildeĜ4ſĹʢ 76bPb-4 55~6810)G34bPb3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn93NZdbďiacuteHGamp=ampbPb-4laquoacuteż1amp-G

3ampɯƯ3ʪȣɱ0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ14bPb-4śʷŪ0ampEWEA agrave˘ampʰƾ3ȣ1ļ+bPb3ʰƾK 31MWh43oMWhͿsup3Śamp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 sup23˘4bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥamp˺]bnKʆG

Ugrave 7-3 ccedilntildeacirciacute-1YacuteEgrave

źľeuml 5 ƛ˞0Ƿeumlɲɞ 7

Ƿ3otildeĜ 30 ˀɥƀǘ 20ƀ ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ 20ƀ

Py 0 Ǵ 20ƀ

ȰlaquoʌɞOECDͿ 21

61

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A bPb14aumlɣė˃SrYɯ3brvbarȐeumlɥ-Gɜʑ3ĔTHORN`bl 2ʍ͵G 64 FIT `bl-H4sup23]bn˩ʙ3ļɵ0GA3-3ȽKĖEHG34Ȧoumlɯ

10 MWsup2atildeͿňɖɯͶoumlɯuPUb0E71uPUbƆǺ-Gaumlɣė˃SrYɅ[vͿ1DGɯ1ɥė˃03Ǜ`bl4ɯǞƉaeligoumlecirc1đɔˬOtilde1ļ+acirciquest

ɱ1ˠŚHěƴ˗3 LCOEK-Gshyʩgt10)GȽ4ɯǞƉ1D) 20Έ25ƀ3Ǵ1ɥHGcurrenƦHGƴ˗db0E71HE3ƴ˗3źľĀEuml1DFHE3Ǜ`bl

-4ͳ3Ƞɱfrac12currenƦHGǛ3ȿͳɥHG34ɰampɯˬOtilde3gt-FHE3ˬ

Otilde4ȽǴK ŚampǛ`bl1DFȽKĖGɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKLľĜ$HĝǨ1oumlźľ-[oumlKłG4-00G ʖ 2 3ĔTHORN`bl4[oumlźľ-GɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKeumlɥ-0ľĜ4źľ-

oumlKłG10Gż$3ĔTHORN4ɯbrvbarȐʿoumlmiddotʇ3ordfȾ1D)ȪŚHGoumlĽŌK

ouml3źľEgraveȉ1divideampͳ-G

(f) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşmg4 Swiss Wind Energy Association ldquoSuisse Eolerdquo1DGA3-GƷ]bn

ʰƾ3mg4 2008ƀ1˩ɩHampͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ȇ1DGA3-G˺]bn4 FIT˩ʙD7 Swiss Federal Office of Energy3mTHORNouml3sup3Ś1ļ+A3-G Ugrave 7-47-64bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOELJŚ1ɥampmĀ1Gsup3ŚKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-4 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 2 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 6 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 1750 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1790 (2488) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 31 (43) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 7-5 11uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 7 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 30 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 70 NA NA Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 21 NA NA

FXn CHFeuro ndashndashndash 067 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

62

Ugrave 7-6 11uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125 (174) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash Ńuuml NA NA

ɯȐʿTHORNȐʿ-ordfȾ

73 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯ]bn4ʢ 120MWh167oMWhͿ-đɔbDFA 58MWh81oMWhͿ0)G

731 -1plusmnecirc

x 7-2 11uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecircpsup337

(a) BL0+igraveeacuteOgrave bPb-ɯHampouml4đɔbDFA˒Ū00)GH4ͶoumlɯʋƄ-Gamp

-GszligːǨ 1750ǨͿ

ĎȲ37 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringěĴ LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0G

ľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

63

(b) ccedil-1 bPb3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAH4Ņ3^Pn93NZdbİ

˜-GD7laquoacuteamp-GbPb3aRZn4ũˠȕ03-ņˠȕ0aRZ

nȣͶTHORNǨ3otildeƊɞfrac120)G

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig bPb3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAɯƯ-4ɼȧcentȵĪͲ10)F$3ampʰƾʚɡ

]bn0)GbPb-4ʰƾ1Gśʷ4L0

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bPb3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ4 7HGraquoL3a

RZn4yacute3ɡɦ1DFƷ0oumlmiddotʇ˺Goumlmiddotʇ4[ouml3˞3

=F1ƚKŠG

732 s_F(=2E

bPb1GͶoumlɯ3 FIT4 110~130MWh153Έ181oMWhͿ-mĀccedilǿ-4 125MWh174oMWhͿKɥGĔTHORN3DF˳˷ǥ4 721ugrave(e) Kđɔ3|-4$Hsup2ń3yacuteǓǎ`bl40

x 7-3 11uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup338

733 aringmH7B bPb-4ǕʘPdlOz1DF LCOE K)Gx 7-3 EbPb3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaR

Zn-4 FIT1DF LCOEK˚)GJG

ĎȲ38 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

64

73

Ugrave 7-7 11uumljBL0+psup339

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 120

(167) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125

(174) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash5

(ndash7) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

Die Website fuumlr Windenergie-Daten der Schweiz Accessed at wwwwind-datach

Erlaumluternder Bericht zur Revision der Anhaumlnge EnV Bundesamt fuumlr Energie 2102009

Swiss Energy Act of June 26 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_0html

Swiss Energy Ordinance of December 7 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_01html

ĎȲ39 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

65

Aring 8Auml Ecircz

81 Ecirczuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4ʟĴ1GD7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1$3]bn3ɚƙɚ1 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3ŚK˷ǥGȳͶoumlɯ14ʟĴ-4=$3ɯ1Gśʷ ampʞć1˦HG3gtG=ampAring 1 Auml1ʆampđɔbȣamp2008ƀ3ʟĴ3]bnccedilǿʫȁK˷ǥG

811 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

ʟĴ1GʦʏˬOtildeş42000ƀ3ʢ 25 GWE 2008ƀǶ3 25 GW1ŀdivideampx 8-1Ϳ2005ƀsup2ěƀƄ3ƀˬOtildeş4˫Kǭǝʯ2008ƀ14ǝamp1 85 GWdivideHampĎȲ402008ƀ14ǝˠɯşszligiquest3 42KͶoumlɯĈGſĹɱ0ƀ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeş1DFʟĴ3ʱȸouml3ʢ 19ͼKAEligʬ-GHG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)2008ƀ3ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4szlig3ͶoumlɯƯ1GǘOacute-GȳͶoumlɯaRZnA˩ɩHFɠķ4$3˴ėĕƖ

Ƞ1G x 8-1 4ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3Đ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71 2012 ƀ3currenɂD7 2030 ƀ

3ɉķɱ`pUKʆG

x 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

ʟĴ4ǥʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3ɶȔOacuteKˬŚ0ƕ)x 8-1 4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴŞɶȔOacute3degJF3mgɏKʆampA3-GSrYƥĽŬ (EIA) 3ʁǴcurrenɂ1DH52012 ƀ1ǝamp1ʢ 10 GW divideHGampˬOtildeş4 2008ƀDFAGʋƄŀdivideG˟gt-G (EIA 2009)ĎȲ41Ǵcurrenɂ1Gƀ3ʃʐ-

ĎȲ40 ś3IʟĴ-4 2009ƀA3timesğʯFǝamp1divideHampͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4 10 GWƍ10

(AWEA2010)ǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ŅĴȣ3ťHamp 2008ƀ1GA3-G ĎȲ41 Yacute1ampD12009ƀ1ɯHampͶoumlɯ3ˬʹş4 10 GWƍ10 (AWEA 2010)

66

4ɉķɱ0Ͷoumlɯ`pU3ccedilǿ1ļ+2030ƀ=-1ʟĴ-˟=HGouml˞3 20KͶoumlɯ-Ʉamp-GG (DOE 2008)3ʃʐ3LJŚ1DH520Pbn1Gamp14Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 305 GWƛ˞10GD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Ĝ˩Ϳ=amp3ʃʐ-42018ƀ=-1ƀˬOtildeşʢ 16 GW1ŀdivideGLJŚG Ugrave 8-1 4ʟĴ1GĐD7notƔcurrenɂHGʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 8-2 4Đ

D7notƔcurrenɂHGƀŨTHORNşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

25 26 43 47 64 68 92 117 169 255 595 251

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

Ugrave 8-2 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

NA 01 17 04 17 04 24 25 52 86 103 16

ȳ NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

812s_CcedilN3N9A

ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ3ampGĔTHORNɅ4oumlłaumlɣė˃SrYźľ˯ǥ (REC) -Gouml3ʪȽEgraveOacute REC3ł4ĸĻźľ$3reg3Ǽacute1DFaRZnȢ1ɮ0)G ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ4Ǖƃ3ʌiacute3UacuteLjʹ1D)ǓEHG2008 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ

ƴ˗143UacuteLjʹPy˺Ǚɣɤʌͳdž PTCͿ ɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČɥė˃-)amp (Schwabe et al 2009)

PTC4 2004ƀ=-1AgraveƄɄǴ1ampH3ľĜAǭǝHamp2000ƀE 2004ƀ=-1Aɯņ1EumlHamp2004ƀsup24 PTCżǨɥ-GD10)ampamp2005ƀE 2009ƀ1ʟĴ3ƀŨTHORNş4˫ɱ1ŀdivideamp (AWEA 2010) Ǖƃ3Ǖʘȿʌ4$3ť0Gaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗1˞0ʪȽɱEacuteɲKAampEGɠķ

EgraveOacute1ļ+ͶoumlɯaRZn14PTC divideUgraveČ3sect3Eacuteɲ1DFļɆaRZn3ˬʹ]bn3 35KG˟gt-G (Bolinger 2010)ľĜ1D)4PTCdivideUgraveČ3˜Ĝɱ0ʪȽucircȁouml3ł REC3ĔTHORN1ʗ0GG4$HKĮG10G (Harper et al 2007)ĎȲ42

82 Ecircz 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ƿʛ-42008 ƀ3ʟĴ1Gdeg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKGǷĽġǮ3reg3Ĵ3ȣ3ampʟĴ3ſĹɱG4deg˘ɱ0aRZn3ɚƙKsup21˷ǥGraquoȜʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3aR

Zn]bnɚƙ4ĸĻ1D)ɮ0FˬOtildeşAņ

ĎȲ42 H4Ͷoumlɯ3oumlȥǛĸUcirc3 RECEgraveȉ)ampĸĻ1D)ɮ0GǘŅ3˞į1ŷęHG

67

821 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ1G3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ſĹˬOtildeş4 1998Έ1999ƀ3ʢ 35 MWE 2007ƀ3 120 MW

=-F2008ƀ14 83 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ1ˬʹHampͶ3Śȉş4 05 MWǵɄE 3 MW=-F2008ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn-4ſĹ 167 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ3ǰAˊɱ0Ͷ4Śȉaeligouml 15 MWgɷƑ 77 mtz 80 m (GE2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) -G

(b) BL0+Ouml ͶɅ34aRZn1D)ņ1ɮ0)Gszligiquestɱ14ʟĴ-4ɡƦɱ0Ͷȯ10)G

ʟĴ3aRZn3szligːǨ4ʢ 1800Έ4400 ǨŃuumlņ2008 ƀ14şdivideſĹ 3066 ǨˤŤHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ43szligːǨ3LJŚOacute4 2007ƀ1ˬʹH 2008ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+A3-ʟĴszligiquest3ͶɅ3ɉķƟK|b1ampA3-40ɏ1ɫƧ-

G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn4ƀɼś1ŀdivideG2008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZ

n14Ʒ]bn4ǰfrac12ʢ 1000kW1400okWͿE 1800kW2500okWͿƍ=-FşdivideſĹ4 1378kW19195okWͿ-G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ44

Ľġ1DH5Ͷ3ĕƊEgraveȉAƀǤtimesğ1)amp2008 ƀ3˕Ċȗ0E71$H1sup1ǪȥƔ1DG˞frac123Ɛ-Ͷ3EgraveȉD7AEligʬ3frac12ɣ G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009 Bolinger 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ14ijŚŃuuml3ǞĠ=H(E-˘ADş|b3]bn

kWͿ14Igraveɤʌ$3reg3ǟˬ]bnˬOtildeordfnjǔŃouml|b3ĸdegʗĠ=HGʟĴ-eumlɥė˃03ʰƾ3mg4EHG3ampǷĽġǮ1ʆʰƾ4LJŚOacute1

ˁĕFʫȁʆĨGD1ǨǴūǣ3ĦordfnjKĠampʰƾĽġHampmg1ăccedilēǧH

0ė˃ƟGE1notƔ4Ͷ3ʽǹĀBIgrave˯Ǵ3ʨpound1DFʰƾ3LJŚOacuteǤGė

˃ƟG 2000ƀdeg1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯaRZn1Wiser Bolinger4 2000Έ2008ƀ3şdivideſĹ

ʰƾK 58MW80oMWͿ˟L-G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009) raquo3ʰƾ14ˊɱ1ɤʌĠ=H03]bnKĠGamp1Wiser Bolinger 3

LJŚOacute1ƀſĹ 50kW70okWͿ3ɤʌ3LJŚǓƱͳĎȲ45divideʙHGɤʌKĠamp

ʰƾʱͳ4Ńuuml-˘5 74MWh103oMWhͿijŚ-4ƀ 226kW314okWͿ-GĎȲ46ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3ʃʐ-42010ƀ=-3ʰƾKʢ 69MWh96oMWhͿBBfrac12˟ʏA)G (DOE 2008)ĎȲ47

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯɯaRZn3˺-4ˇŹ3otildeĜKaRZn|

b3OumlKlteampˇŹ3otildeĜ0)G34114ȞĘɱ1ɣɤʌdžǜʯɱ1˖JHampamp-GOuml1DG˺4ͶoumlɯaRZn3˺ǴKƊ=amp

˜1Gė˃ƟFE14ʪȽɱEgraveOacute3G PTCǴKŗH00GƠHG (Harper et al 2007) Ouml1DG˺KŪ0GǞğƟɣ amp34aRZnɯi`blSrYD

7Ǩ14ɢĿ˞ʥKĠͿ3aeligouml3˃ouml13KʰƾGKdzLamp-$3ampSrYŋʢǛ

ĎȲ43 ˬOtildeeumlɥɞ 35ͼ1ļ+ ĎȲ44 ]bn4szlig 2008ƀƄ3D7o-˘ʆ2008ƀ 12DZ 31ǡsup23onjʙ1ɥampɐǯn4 1

139o (Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ45 NREL3atildemg|bELJŚampɤʌǓƱͳ3ſĹ ĎȲ46 2008ƀ3ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71szligːǨTHORNoumlsup3Ś1ļ+ ĎȲ47 ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71 2008ƀƄ3szligːǨTHORNoumlLJŚOacute1ļ+ 2008ƀo1ŃnjampLJŚOacute

68

1ijŚG40)ampE-GʟĴ3Ouml3ư4ż`bl3szligaeligouml1ťSrYŋʢEgraveȉ

Kbrvbarntilde1ȪŚK˞ȨG (Cory and Schwabe 2009)E14 2008ƀƔĄ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ouml1DG˺4Ĵ˕źľ3˕ȴuumlbZĮ3amp˕Ċȗ3ntildeȣ˒İ10

)G (Schwabe et al 2009) mccedilǿ-4 100ͼǷƷKsup3ŚG3˺4 2008 ƀ1ʟĴ1ǃregɱ1-40ʸF

˖JHampȷń-4$Hˊɱ-40)ampͿmĀccedilǿ-42008ƀ1ƛ˞HampˇŹǷeumlɲɞK 75ͼsup3ŚG(Chadbourne and Parke 2009)3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ42008ƀ 10DZ3˕Ċȗ$31 100Έ200`bPnĽġHGǷ1DG˺]bnņŽ1ŀdivideampͿ3ƐKĖamp1ɫƧ-G (Chadbourne and Parke 2009 Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

(f) s_CcedilN3N9A ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3˞0ĔTHORNɅ41ͿǴŋʢG4źľ|b3Egraveȉ1ļ+oumlD

7aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3ł2Ϳɣɤʌdž3žĀ3ͿɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3dividełČ3 3ʍ͵-GʟĴ-4ouml RECł1DGĔTHORNĸĻD7źľ1D)˒ɮ0)Gouml14ˠiacuteHGH0REC14ˇɯɱaumlɣė˃SrYotildeƎʻyacuteKŗGͿmccedilǿ-4ĹʗdivideſĹͶoumlɯEgraveȉ3LJŚOacute4 ǴɱŋʢEgraveȉouml REC3ǞKĠͿčźľEgraveȉouml3gtͿ1 RECKecircdivideampEgraveȉ3Oacute10Gsup3ŚGĎȲ482008ƀ3ͶoumlɯEgraveȉ3ſĹ4ʢ 419MWh582 oMWhͿLJŚHGĎȲ49Py˺Ǚɣɤʌdž42008 ƀ14ʢ 151 MWh210oMWhͿHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)Ś3Ƿ]bn3divideUgraveČ4 6ƀ˩ɩ-˖JHm-4 1Έ6ƀɶ1$HH 20ͼ32ͼ192ͼ115ͼ115ͼ3otildeĜ-UgraveČHGĎȲ50

(g) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3mĀccedilǿ-4==0mgfbKɥampɚ1eumlɥė˃0agraveɱǛKUacuteYacuteamp

1ʆampszlig3mgfb3bnKǷʒ3đʾǚɝ1ʆaRZn3ɚƙaRZn3Ɵ˃

Ʒ]bnʰƾ)ampŃǘ14Wiser and Bolinger 20093ecirc˘1E1˳˷ǥG

822 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

ɠķ=-3IʟĴ-4ĩɥˠȕ3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥAring40ƈˬ3aRZnA

0ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3Ľġ-4= 2012Έ2018ƀ1ĩɥȳͶoumlɯ3ɯaRZnȶȦĻƴ˗KɥǾȷųȫ-ɱ1˖JHG10GǴƒHGđʾ3amp-4currenƦHGȳ

ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKʆampʟĴ-ɥHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn4=œķ0

ampHE3LJŚOacute4 LCOEmccedilǿ1Ġ0

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ3ȳͶ4|b3aRZnDFAņˠȕ0A310FDFˍō0ͶȯKeumlɥamp

ė˃10GGAring5^idjkŵ-ȏ˪HGCape WindȳͶoumlɯaRZn-4Ͷ3^PcK 36 MWGɯ˘0Hamp (Cape Wind 2010)szligːǨ3ʜı4 3000ǨEʢ4800ǨLJŚHG (DOE 2008)

(b) ccedil-1 ȳͶoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4Ńuumlņ2000 ƀdegĄ5E4ğtimesğ1GʟĴȚŵ-NjȊH

GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn13ƀ3˺Ȇ1DH5Ʒ]bn4ʢ 3100 kW

ĎȲ48 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3 43ͼ3aRZnƯDzʿ4GʋƄ3ĩȐbZK10G=amp

oumllO[ƺƎʿA3bZKė˃ƟGHE3ƺƎʿ4 2008ƀ1ͶoumlɯˬOtildeşKǝamp17ͼTHORNamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)3ccedilǿ-42008ƀ3ǝˠͶoumlɯ3 50ͼKźľ|b3Egraveȉ0J(ĩȐEgraveȉͿȟF3 50ͼKǴɱŋʢEgraveȉsup3ŚG

ĎȲ49 2008ƀ3Egraveȉ1Gsup23sup3Ś4Wiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+A3-sup23Fsup3ŚG(1)ǴɱͶoumlɯŋʢEgraveȉoumlRECͿ= 515oMWh(2)čłbjnźľEgraveȉ =5oMWh(3)aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ = 5oMWh

ĎȲ50 3UgraveČ˩ɩ4ƀĄ53ƫAring1ļ+A3-2008ƀ 2009ƀ1eumlɥė˃)amp 50ͼĽŌUgraveČ4ʾƬ0

69

4300 okWͿ-H4notƔǘƀ1ƈˬcurrenŚHGaRZn1GOacute-GĎȲ51H1ť

US Offshore Wind Collaborative-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn4 3300kW4600okWͿ10GcurrenɂG (USOWC 2009)

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn=ɥH0ampʰƾ3currenƦ4˒ʄśƟG

ɯ˘HGmg40ʟĴȚŵ-NjȊHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ1G

ǰ3˟ʏF1DH5ʱ]bn4ʢ 137MWh19oMWhͿ10GĎȲ52

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯ3ɯD7ɥ1bZ˟=HF=ampɯBɥ3ʪA0amp

Ǝeacute3(4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bnaRZnDFA4G10GcurrenƦ

HGȳͶoumlaRZn3˺-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3cedilʭɱ0ƷưȠ0J(Igrave

middotʇͿ-40bZ˭şƄ3ƷưȠ0J(Ȥ3ˇŹǷͿeumlɥHGƝJHGAring5Ȥ

3ˇŹǷƷ1ƛ˞HGeumlɲɞ4ś˯Gƴ˗1 25Έ350GcurrenƦHG (Justice 2010)=ampʟǕƃ4ĩɥD7ǝɱaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗3$Hͳ-0Ouml1DGǷ˺KǓǎ

Gamp3˕OgraveTHORNIgrave˯KNjAEligG(EAȳƴ˗1ɥ-Gė˃ƟAGͿraquoɠ˖Ȱ-4

˕Igrave˯˩ɩ3˺3eumlɥė˃Ɵ0E71ɧ˻ʿ3ȉEHG (DOE 2010) ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɥė˃0|ŵ|3PdlOz4ȳͶoumlɯaRZ

n1Aeumlɥ-Gsup3ŚHGǕƃ3PdlOz14˫3 PTCɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČĠ=HGɚ1ǾȷųȫcopyņɃĸĻ3ŵ4ě3ʚĂ1GȳͶoumlɯaRZnKEuml

Gamp3==0ǞȰKeumlɥHE3aRZnKŨG (USOWC 2009)

(e) Q54Q1 ȳͶoumlɯ3ɚƙ1G˞0mgɅ4ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution

to US Electricity SupplyrdquoĽġǮ (DOE 2008)US Offshore Wind Collaborative3US Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo0E71ʟĴ3ȳͶoumlɯ1Gěʍ3Ľɯ˘ʗ-GraquoǰƔ3A314ȲƧƛ˞-G

Ugrave 8-3 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ53

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ54 ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 165 167 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ͷļǘ ļ 73 50 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ɯĎȲ55 szligːǨ 2891 3066 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1241 (1725) 1378 (1915) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʰƾ ijŚͿĎȲ56 eurokW ($kW) 50 (70) 50 (70) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʰƾ ŃuumlͿĎȲ57

euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (80) 58 (80) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

$3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆWiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ51 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ52 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ53 Yacute1ampD1]bn4szlig 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆ ĎȲ54 3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙ4ntildeʛ1ʆGȳͶoumlɯ4ʟĴ3 LCOEccedilǿ14Ġ0 ĎȲ55 eumlɥɞ 2007ƀ 33ͼ2008ƀ 35ͼsup3ŚG (Wiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) ĎȲ56 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampş|b3ʰƾ4 2007ƀ 2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG ĎȲ57 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampɯouml|b3ʰƾ42007ƀ2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG

70

(f) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 8-38-5 4ș1G LCOE ccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3sup3ŚKʆG]bn3sup3Ś4HA 2007 ƀ

2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1GA3-2008ƀƄ3o-˘GmD7ǞȰ3˳˷ǥ4Aring 1AumlKđɔHamp

Ugrave 8-4 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 100 100 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash WACC ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

Ǵ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ȰlaquoʌɞĎȲ58 ͼ 389 389 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FXnĎȲ59 $US 139 139 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆChadbourne and Parke 2009 Harper et al 2007 Schwabe et al 2009

Ugrave 8-5 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

oumlźľEgraveȉĎȲ60 euroMWh ($MWh) 382 (531) 419 (582) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

źľEgraveȉ˯ǥĎȲ61 euroMWh ($MWh)

˫1 Ġ=HG

˫1 Ġ=HG ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FITǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml |bͿĎȲ62

euroMWh ($MWh) 144 (200) 151 (210) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ 10 10 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 6 6 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆHarper et al 2007 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ58 LJŚHampǕƃŵǕƃ3ʌɞ4$HH 35ͼ 6ͼ-Gɏ1ɫƧ (Harper et al 2007)ŵʌ4ĔTHORNEdž

HGamp˜Ĝśucircʌɞ4 389ͼ-G ĎȲ59 szlig3]bn4 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆGamp2007ƀA 2008ƀA 2008ƀǶ3ɐǯnKɥamp

(Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ60 2007ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3EgraveȉˬŚ1Gsup3ŚAWiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+˥amp ĎȲ61 aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3LJŚͳKouml3źľEgraveȉ3˩ʙ1ĠG ĎȲ62 PTCnjʙOacute4 13frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORN

71

823 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯTHORNoumlvgKɥ2007 ƀ 2008 ƀ3 LCOE K˩ʙamp2008 ƀ3ʟĴ LCOE2008

ƀ3ʟĴ3sup3ŚKszligAumlɥͿKđɔb2008 ƀ3đɔb3szligsup3ŚKAumlɥͿȣamp$3ʫȁ4sup23F-G Ĵecirc3ěTHORNoumlŃǘKě3đɔb3sup3ŚEʟĴ3sup3Ś9ŀccedilɱ1degTHORNđɔbʟĴ3 LCOE

3Ÿɮ93ěŃǘ3ƐKLJŚ-GD1ampʟĴ3 LCOE 4 3 MWh4 oMWhͿ-đɔb3 LCOEDFAfrac12x 8-2đɔͿ

x 8-2 EcirczrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup363

(b) BL0+dj ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4ſĹˍō0Ͷȯ3ơƣKĖG-G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ|b3

aRZn-4ſĹ 3066 Ǩ3szligːǨǴƒHGđɔb-4 2628 ǨͿʟĴ-4aRZn3aeligouml0G LCOEđɔbDFAʢ 8MWh11oMWhͿfrac120G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAʢ 72 kW100o kWͿfrac120)G

2008ƀ3ſĹƷ]bn4đɔb 1449kW2029okWͿ-G31ťʟĴ-4 1378kW19195okWͿ-GǑĐ]bnͶoumlɯˬOtilde3ǑĐ]bnaRZn^Pn3ƘUcirc]bnĠ=HGͿ4szliggt3Ʒ]bn1Ġ=HGsup3ŚHGƕ)ʟĴ-4Ʒ]bnfrac12

G1HLCOEđɔbDFAʢ 2MWh3oMWhͿfrac120G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3˺]bn4ˇŹǷ|amp2008ƀ4 100ͼͿ=ampđɔb-4

Ouml1DG˺KɥGampđɔbDFA0)G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯaRZn3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ75ͼͿ4đɔb3Oumleumlɲɞ55ͼͿDFA 200|`bPn0)G ʟĴ-4ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 2007 ƀE 2008 ƀ1ŀdivideampH4ǕĊȗ1DFƕǽ3ǷƷŞ

ĎȲ63 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

72

KŊ)ampamp-G (Schwabe et al 2009)H4=ampư0Egraveȉ3frac34Ŗ)ampreg3ʊʌdžƷAĝȓ3ơƣKƖEHGD1GʟĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY3ʌdžǕʘ3Ɵ1DGA3-3Ǖʘ1DF 2007ƀ1ʢ 6ͼ3eumlɲNjAEligHHȇƉƷeumlɲɞ3KŚG10)amp (Chadbourne and Parke 2007)ʟĴ3˺]bn0GʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 8MWh11oMWhͿ0G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAfrac120)Gʰƾ4ijŚG4Ńuuml-˘-

G3ampđɔb3ȣ-4ŃuumlǼacute-˘ampnjʙćǛ3LJŚOacuteampʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJ

Śʱͳ4 7MWh10oMWhͿđɔb3 13MWh18oMWhͿK4G1Į)ampraquoĽġ1DH5ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯɤȐ4ʰƾʚɡ]bn3˟ʏF1G˞˹Ͳ1ɠķAɷFĽ

ġHampmg4Ǩřszlig-Gamp3LJŚOacute4ƪ1˥Gƛ˞G =ampʰƾ4aRZn3ˠȕũ0G1Hfrac12G˯ƻAG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

HAʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJŚͳđɔbȣfrac120)G3į-GʟĴ3aR

Zn3ˠȕ4đɔbDFAņampͿ=ampʟĴ3ʰƾ4ǝˠaRZn14=DzucircIgrave

˯Ǵatilde-Gamp1ʵĥHGė˃ƟGʟĴ3ʰƾfrac120GʟĴ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFAʢ 6MWh8oMWhͿfrac120G

(f) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4Ƿ]bn˺]bnG4szliggt3ʰƾ1Ġ=HGƦŚHGamp

ʟĴ3ccedilǿ-4ecircmĀ0reg3]bn14ʡʭɥʿ1DGfrac12ĶPob (LVRT) ˞acuteG4ɑucircouml]bnʗGN`^wbǛ4ż4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɷDž˹

HG40

(g) uumljfrac14divideWocirceumlCcediloslash Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ]bn4đɔbDFA0)GHE3Ǖʘ1

41ͿȰlaquoʌɞ2ͿȰlaquo˹ʌƯƖE3eumlőǓƱdžĠ=HGʟĴ3DzucircȰlaquoʌɞ389Ϳ4đɔb30ͿDFA$3amp LCOE0)GE1Ƿ1DG 100˺K˟L-GampʟĴ3 LCOE ˹ʌƯƖ3eumlőǓƱdž1D)ȿͳHG40ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFAʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ0)G

824 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj3˩ʙ1DFʟĴ3ĔTHORNŃǘouml RECͿ3OacuteKͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘȣGyacuteYj4=ĔTHORNǕʘAͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘKĠ

1˩ʙș1ĔTHORNŃǘ3gtKĠauml˩ʙGǰƔ1auml7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘKĠ˩

ʙG3ŀccedilsup3Ś1DFͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘ1ťGĔTHORN3ɸťɱEgraveOacuteKǥE1amp x 8-34ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘĔTHORN3ŃǘKȣHE 23D1ʟĴ3 LCOE

KȒƭGKʆampA3-G2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3 LCOEʢ 41MWh57oMWhͿ4ĔTHORNɅouml REC3łͿ-JHGʢ 24MWh33oMWhͿ4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHGPTCUgraveČ˩ɩ3divideͿotildeĜ-˘0EʟĴ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 24ĔTHORN-ȟF3 3ccedil3 14ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHG

73

x 8-3 Ecirczs_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup364

825 aringmH7B

ʟĴ3mĀccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash1 MWhndash1 oMWhͿ-G3EʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4aRZnɯ1ƛ˞HGyacute˞acuteKɄamp31ăccedil0Xj`

yKĔTHORND7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOzȉGľĜͿEƖG10G34

PTCżǨDzucirc-)amp 2005Έ2009ƀ3ƀͶoumlˬOtildeş3ʯɱ˫EAǥE-GH41ƀŨTHORNş4 PCT]bnɑucirc10)ampǨ1˒ȿŪG (AWEA2009)ĎȲ65

83 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+

ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ƀƞ1ƼņGH4Ͷȯż1ˍō-]bnȣɱfrac12ĔTHORN

Ʌăccedil1F=ampľĜ1D)4Dzɲ0ǕʘPdlOzKeumlɥ-GE-GʟĴ1Gɠķ=

-3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn4HA-śǟHampʟĴeacute0GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯ

EHGʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bn4ˊ1đɔbDFAfrac12H4SrYaeligouml

ņǷ]bnʰƾfrac121DGͶoumlɯ1GǕƃ3ǕʘPdlOzȜ

Ɖ1˴ŚHamp-Ĵatilde3Ņ3szlig-401AͿ3ɯaRZnEumlHG10)amp

E-GĔTHORNǕʘ3PdlOz3ɸiexclucircȁ1DFͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ3yacuteYj4lte10

)G

Ugrave 8-6 EcirczIumlsectpsup366

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

58 (81)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

60 (83)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

ndash1 (ndash1) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ĎȲ64 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ65 x 8-1đɔ ĎȲ66 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

74

rOtildemiddot

AWEA (2010) ldquoUS Wind Energy Industry Breaks All Records Installs Nearly 10000 MW in 2009 Manufacturing

Investment Jobs Still Lagrdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) news release January 26 2010 at httpwwwaweaorgnewsroomreleases01-26- 10_AWEA_Q4_and_Year-End_Report_Releasehtml

AWEA (2009) ldquoAmerican Wind Energy Association Annual Wind Industry Report Year Ending 2008rdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) at httpwwwaweaorgpublicationsreportsAWEA-Annual-Wind-Report-2009pdf

Bolinger M (2010) ldquoRevealing the Hidden Value that the Federal Investment Tax Credit and Treasury Cash Grant Provide to Community Wind Projectsrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL-2909E January 2010 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreportslbnl-2909epdf

Capewind (2010) ldquoCape Wind Signs Agreement to Buy Siemens 36-MW Offshore Wind Turbinesrdquo Cape Wind (Capewind) news release March 31 2010 at httpwwwcapewindorgnews1086htm

Chadbourne and Parke (2009) ldquoTrends in Tax Equity for Renewable Energyrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke January 2009 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication810dde60-3c78-4a9a-9c5d- a5fae8014b4fPresentationPublicationAttachment51fc06c5-1407-48ac-9dff- a605de0f58e1pfn0109pdf

Chadbourne and Parke (2007) ldquoThe Tax Equity Marketrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke April 2007 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication572b04b4- 905e-48e1-8f6b-0f520c4f2615PresentationPublicationAttachment573bdc6c-ff85-4f99-b4d0- 25a845907bccpfn0407pdf

Cory K Schwabe P (2009) ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financing Input Variablesrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL TP-6A2-46671 October 2009 at httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

DOE (2010) ldquoGeneral Loan Guarantee Program Frequently Asked Questionsrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) accessed April 2010 at httpwwwlgprogramenergygovfaq2htm

DOE (2008) ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution to US Electricity Supplyrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2008 at httpwww20percentwindorg

EIA (2009) ldquoAnnual Energy Outlook 2010 Early Release with Projections to 2030rdquo US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration (EIA) website accessed February 2010 at httpwwweiadoegovoiafaeoexcelaeotab_16xls

102Federal Reserve (2010) ldquoHistorical Rates for Euro Areardquo Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System website accessed February 2010 at httpwwwfederalreservegovreleasesh10histdat00_euhtm

GE (2010) ldquo15 MW Wind Turbine Technical Specificationsrdquo GE Energy (GE) website accessed April 2010 at httpwwwgepowercomprod_servproductswind_turbinesen15mwspecshtm

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review amp Comparative Analysisrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports63434pdf

Justice S (2009) ldquoPrivate Financing of Renewable Energy ndash A Guide for Policymakers UNEP Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative Bloomberg New Energy Finance Chatham House December 2009 at httpwwwchathamhouseorgukfiles15542_1209_financeguidepdf

Schwabe P Cory K Newcomb J (2009) ldquoRenewable Energy Project Financing Impacts of the Financial Crisis and Federal Legislationrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory technical report NRELTP-6A2-44930 July 2009 at

75

httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti44930pdf

USOWC (2009) ldquoUS Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo US Offshore Wind Collaborative (USOWC) October 2009 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreports63434pdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2009) ldquo2008 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2009 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports2008-wind-technologiespdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2008) ldquoAnnual Report on US Wind Power Installation Cost and Performance Trends 2007rdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy May 2008 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs43025pdf

76

Uograve AĂsup1agraveUumlaacute

shyocircMQ+Q

BL0+para

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

aRZn3gPn Project title

aRZnĞregĴ3QOo

yMȣGamp AringΆoPk3đɔQOoyM13

aRZn3ʍ͵ Project type

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ʍ͵ A4ȳ

Ͷļǘ Number of wind turbines

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

Ͷʱǘ$EěĴ3ɡ˼

3ſĹɱQOoyMͿ

ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

Śȉaeligouml Rated power

Ͷ 1ļ3Śȉaeligouml ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

gɷƑ Rotor diameter

Ͷ3gɷƑ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

ĖͶʏ Swept area

gͶKĖGszligʏ m2-˘˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

tz Hub height

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ƚĸɏ3ſĹ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽraquotz

3ſĹͶƀɯouml4ɷDž

EcircGͿ tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ

Lond term average wind speed at hub height

tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

Ȝģɯouml Net electricity production

QOoyM3ƀſĹȜ

ģɯouml szligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

ƺʌouml Tax capability

iacute΄ɑiacute ćɜ3aRZn3ľĜ

4ʌiacuteUacuteʘKszligeumlɥ-GͿG4

ˣmiddotʇKƾ3ľĜ4ˣmiddotʇ

Ǝ˲ƀƄ3ʌdžKszligDzucirc1eumlɥ-

GͿ4_Ƹ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4

Ĵʌ΄ʌ3gt1ɥHGŵʌBĸ

Ǟʌ4ńͿ Currency

szlig]bnĔTHORNPdlOz

ʗ3 2007ǫƀ 2008ǫƀ3$HHdeg˘ɱ0ǡ $HH 2007ƀ 12DZ 3ǡ 2008ƀ12DZ 31ǡͿ3ȣ1ļ+1ˬŚ

ijŚƀ]bnćfrac14 Fixed annual costs unit

ijŚʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kW

Ńuumlƀ]bnćfrac14 Variable annual costs unit

ƀʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kWh

ccedil-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ͷ Wind turbine

ͶD7ɯ˙ʹ3Yacute˖Ʒ

]bn ggtzgĖ

oPznPKƿʆGPy

YN~jZb`blxj

i`blzX`blpdt

77

Qa[ɯȗgzoͶ

ɥŃĶĬraraquoļʅG4ʡʭDž

ʯ4Ġ=reg-ƲͿ Ͷ3 Wind turbine transportation

ͶK˛ŶľEaRZ

nɯ^Pn1$1ˬ

ʹ-GD1Gamp3]b

n

Ͷ3aRZn^Pn93Křpound

Gamp1ɥEHG΄n

jZ]bnD7Z3]bnK

Ġ Ͷ3ˬʹ Wind turbine installation

aRZnƈˬǴ3Ͷ

3ˬʹ]bn ƈˬ3Z3]bnKĠ

ũ˩ΆͶ3]bn Sub-total wind turbine cost

Ͷ 3ļsup23]bn3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ļʅ Foundations

QOoyM1ƛ˞0ļʅ

3ʱ]bn ]Zn$3regQOoyM

3ěͶKǓG31ƛ˞0ȒǓȅK

Ġ Ȓatildeʡʭ Internal grid

QOoyM3ŃƯ93

Džʯ1ƛ˞0QOoyM

atilde3ȥʡʭ

QOoyMatilde3szlig3ʳQO

oyM3ŃƯ=-D7ŃƯ

3ʳKĠͿŃƯ1ʡɏDF

ntilde1ʡʭʡŃĶĬGľĜ4$3Ń

ĶĬ=-3szlig3ʳKĠ1șiacuteƗɯ`blKuziacuteƗGamp1ˬʹ

HampiacuteƗ˙ʹͿ3]bnKĠƯDzʿ

D7Ͷ˛brvbarȐʿ1ǖB˿ġKcedilamp

FͶKǒAcirc1DFuumlD7Ocirc

țampFɥʭ˩OacuteKƵǍGamp3

ɴˡiacuteƗ`bl (SCADA)G4QOoyMɴˡ`bl3ˬʹKĠ

ʡʭʡ[jo]o3

Ɇƻ Grid connection grid code compliance

QOoyM3ʡʭʡ1

ƛ˞0ŃĶĬǠœ3oumlʡʭ

-ƛ˞HGȥʡʭ

QOoyMEʡʭ=-3ʳ

0[jo]oɆƻ3amp1ȨE

HGegrave3divideɱ˙ʹĠ=HGQO

oyMʡʭʡŃĶĬKĠ˜ǘ3

ŃƯKDzGľĜʡʭʡŃĶĬ

ʡʭ3ʳ3gtKĠ ʡʭŀƍ Grid reinforcement

˄Ƌ0ʡʭ-4QOoyM

3ʡ3ampʡʭ3reg3ccedil

3ĶʤKG1DF

ʡʭKŀƍGė˃ƟG

Ǡœ3ʡʭ3ŀƍ1ƛ˞0˙ʹ

ŀƍdivideɱiacuteƗ$3reg3macrdivideɱ˙ʹKĠ

Ϳ

ŃƯ Substations and transformer station

ʡʭʡŃĶĬˇiquestD7$H

=-3ĂKĠampQOoy

M3ʡʭatilde1Gszlig3

ŃƯ3]bn

ʡʭ93ʡĸɏ=-ǜĬD7ǜ

ĬKĠŃĶĬ4ĶKǤĶGȥ

ȗĬ-GL3Ͷ4aeligoumlKʡ

ʭĶ1ǤĶGŃĶĬKDzG ũ˩Άȥʡʭ Sub-total electrical netgrid

ȥʡʭ1G˫ 4 ɶ3ũ˩

˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ˴˯ Certification

ʡʭʡG1amp)QO

oyMK˴˯Gamp3]

bn

˴˯Hampˬ˩IJ3]bnD7QOo

yM3ś3ƈˬK3ˬ˩IJȣ

G]bnKĠ ɢĿ˺Ȇ Environmental survey

QOoyM3ɯȠ-

ƛ˞10GɢĿ˺Ȇ3ʱͳH

4ěĴ3ɢĿƐ˰EgraveǮ3acirciquest

ɱ0˞acute1˟G-G

ȩȃ3ė˃ƟɊɇograveʗͿ ͷ|3LJŚ Ǫˤ93ˡˢɱƐ ɣɣəD7ɣƩʡ93ƈˬD7 3Ɛ ɚŚ3ͻ˓˔3ɴˡ `oQyjV3Oslash

Pysup2ń3ɯ]bn

3ũ˩ Non-infrastructure development subtotal

˫3Pysup2ń3aR

Znɯ3˫ 2ɶ3ʱ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

78

ʰƾˬOtilde OampM facilities

ʰƾȐyacute3˖1ƛ˞0

D7ǟˬKǝamp1ƈˬG

]bn

Ͷ3ƈˬ14aRZn3ˀ

ɥƀǘ3ʰƾgzo3

ɏȏ]bnD7ņĺĦ3ordfnj]bn $3reg Miscellaneous

˫3aRZnɯ]bn

1Ġ=H0$3regegrave3

]bn

3ĵĸƯDzʿ93˚Ugrave

ntilde3eumlőǓƱ Interest payment before operation

aRZnŐntilde1ǓƱ

ƛ˞10Geumlő3ʱͳ ż4ƈˬȠ3OumlD7Ͷ3Ͱ

ǓƱ3amp33Ńǘ4 1Έ2ƀatilde3yacuteŃǘ-G3Xj`y

mŐHGɥeacuteƀƄ1

4ntilde-ǓƱ]bnG reg3aRZnɯ]b

n3ũ˩ Sub-total other project development costs

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫frac14ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0

ľĜʱͳ-˘

aRZnƷ]bn3

ʱͳ Total project investment costs

˫ɯɶũ˩3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

q-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǑĐbZjEgraveͳK

Ϳ Decommisioning excl scrap value

ļʅKĠQOoyMK

ĵĸEǑĐG31˞G]

bn

QOoyMD7egrave3Py

ZʗͿ3˥iquestǑĐə

$3regegrave3ƛ˞0Ǖƃ˯ǥǮ3Acircƭ]b

n ĵĸ3ˇɓɛƩ93ĮƘ Returning the land to the natural state

ĵĸ3ɠɛĮƘ3amp3]bn aRZnřpoundamp1ɯɣ

bZjEgraveͳ Scrap value

ǑĐǨ3bZjǺǛ3łČ

EgraveOacute ʳʗaumleumlɥG4bZj

łČ-Gė˃Ɵ3GQOoyM

3ǺǛ ȜģǑĐ]bn Net decommissioning costs

˫ɶ3ʱͳ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

BL0+igraveeacute Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǨszligːǨmO

nKͿ Operational time full load hours excluding derate

szligːǨ4QOoyM

3ſĹƀɯoumlK$3

Śȉaeligouml-ampOacute-G

H4szligːǨ3Ĝ˩-F˩ɩɱ

D7˩ɩń3ʰƾʚɡ3amp3OcircțǨK

ĠszligːǨŅŚamp^P

n1GQOoyM3ɯouml

AŀdivideG szligːǨ3mOn Derate of full load hours

QOoyMʎOslash

0Ǩ ɼȧʗ1DGOcircț3amp3ɯouml

3ǏŊKĠ ȜģǨȜģszligːǨ

Net operational timefull load hours

ǨszligːǨEmO

nKƊampǨ ȜģǨ3Ĝ˩KĠG0J(m

OnKĠGͿ

ˀɥƀǘ Economic life

ƦŚHGaRZn3ˀɥ

ƀǘ3ǴaRZn]

bn3ʱͳKĮĔ0H50

E0Ϳ

AringaRZnKʮʯɥG-

ƦŚHampˀɥƀǘsup21ăccedilʎOslash-

GɛƩ1)ampAaRZn

3ȟœˀɥƀǘ4egraveĠ0 ]bn˩ʙ3amp3˩ɩť

Ǵ Time horizon for cost

LCOE˩ʙ3ť0GǴ _OacuteKTHORNouml0ľĜ4myTn

ˬŚ1DFˀɥƀǘ1ˬŚG

79

calculations

aringm Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ǵ Loan duration

ȽǴ3Ĝ˩ ͰD7eumlőǓƱKĠ

― źľeuml Loan - market interest rate

euml3Oacute43ư1D)

ŃJG OgraveTHORN3otildeĜ-˘]bn

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml3ƖEHG Oumleumlɲɞ Return on debt

Ǵ1ȢƀƖEHG

euml ȢƀƖEHGeuml

ƛ˞HGǷeumlɲɞź

ľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivideʙ

KͿ Required return on equity excl market volatility risk adder

QOoyM3ǷƷŞ

ȨGeumlɲɞ Ƿ1Geumlɲ3otildeĜ

źľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivide

ʙ Market volatility risk adder

ʕyenɱźľ1đdivideǷeumlɲɞ

KGdividebZKƵǍG

KɶɱampA3

źľ1GcurrenƦń3ŃuumlbZKʾƬ

Gamp1divideʙGotildeĜ

ƛ˞HGƷǷ3Ȝ

ģeumlɲɞ Net required return on investment equity

ɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZ

nƷŞ93ǷeumlɲɞǷƷ

ŞȨGźľŃuumlƟ3b

ZKĠͿ

Ƿeumlɲɞźľ3ŃuumlƟKʾƬG

ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKƵǍGamp mZ-ɥė ˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ƿ3otildeĜĸUcircǷ3ƯDz

ȖKͿ Equity share excl local equity ownership

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp1ƻaeligGǷ3otilde

Ĝ

ͶǓƾ˙ʹPyʚɡ˺

ʗ3]bnKamp1ƷGǷ3

ʱͳ

Ƿ3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Total equity share

ĸUcirc3Ƿ3ƯDzȖ0E71ʱ

Ʒ]bn ˺]bnK

amp1ƻaeligGǷ3otildeĜ3

Ĝ˩

ĸUcircD7ĸUcircsup2ń3ƷŞNjAEligamp

Ƿ3ʱͳ

Ouml3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Debt share

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp3Ouml3otildeĜ THORNoumlGǷ3otildeĜ1ļ+˩ʙOacute

aRZn3ʱ]bn 100EǷ3otildeĜKƊampOacuteͿ

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate- municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠǘOacute

4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ȝģʌɞ Net tax rate

ǕƃĸǞŵǕƃ3Ȱlaquoʌ

ɞ3Ĝ˩ -˘ʆǕƃźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

80

shy MQ+Q

oacute-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

˛ȐʿNjAEligGʰƾʚ

ɡ]bn Manufacturer-provided maintenance

eacuteƀƄG4$3Ɣ1divide]

bn0-˛ȐʿNjAEligG

ʰƾʚɡ]bn

3]bn4żQOoyM3ˬʹ

]bn1Ġ=HGampeacuteǴ4e1

0G4-G

atildebgjy1DG˩ɩɱ

ʰƾʚɡ]bn Scheduled maintenance by internal staff

aRZnƯDzʿ3bgjy

1DGŚǴɱ0QOoyM

3ʰƾʚɡ]bn

bgjy1DGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

ń^wbŋʢ External service contracts

reg3˻Ȑʿ1DGŚǴɱ0Q

OoyM3ʰƾʚɡ]b

n

˻brvbarȐʿDGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

]bn Operation costs

QOoyM3ɥ1ƛ˞

0ƀ]bn SCADA KĠQOoyM3ƴ˗ɱɥ3amp3]bn-ʚɡ]bn-40

H14ecirc˷ǥͿǘOacuteȥcurren

ɂ3]bnKĠ ɏȏ Inspections

Ͷɏȏ3amp˻ȐʿK

ˇʇ-A˫3^wb˻

Ȑʿ-A0ľĜͿ

gzo3Ľġ2~4ƀȢͿĦ3ƴ˗ɏȏͶ 1 ļampF 2 ƀȢ1 1 ǡͿKĠɏȏ3ǨȂ4kW |b

-ˬŚ ˩ɩń3Icircɡ Unscheduled repairs

˩ɩń3Icircɡʰƾʚɡ ˙ʹ3ǖŇȥɛȯ$3reg3ńį1DG

ʰƾijŚͿũ˩ OampM costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ OampM costs variable subtotal

˫3Ńuumlʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝͳ-˘ ʚɡ Administration

QOoyM3ʚɡ

D7ɴɽ3]bn ʬƈəˇuumlD7ɗǛͿʗKĠ

Igrave Insurance

QOoyM$33

bZD7$3Ɛ1OtildeG

amp1ǓƱƀIgraveǛ

uumlɤIgraveǏŝUgraveuacuteɍ˚UgraveD7ɢĿ

)ampQOoyM1ɷDžEcirc

Gegrave3Igrave

ʡʭǛ Grid charges

ʡʭ93ʡ0E71ɥKǓ

ǎG31ƛ˞HGƀǛ

_4HKş|b3]bn

G4SrY]bnTHORNouml

G-G ʡʭ3]bnijŚͿ Grid costs fixed

˫3ʡʭǛ

ʡʭ3]bnŃuumlŃuumlͿ Grid costs variable

˫3ʬ˺ʛ]bn

^Pn3 Site lease

QOoyMKˬʹampĵ

ĸ3ƯDzʿ1ǓƱʱͳ Ͷ 1 ļ1macrǓƱľĜAʱͳ-ǓƱľĜAʱ]bn-THORNouml

G ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

aRZnşƀ

kWͿ1ļ+aRZnǓƱƀʌͳ

ͼ|b3ʌ4˫3Z`n-ƀ

șŃuuml30ŃǘTHORNoumlG

1ȲƧ-4ş|b3ʌKʆ

$3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG ȸouml Electricity consumption

ouml3ˇŹȸ ʡʭ3ĝǴD7ɯƯ3uumlʗ3amp

_4HEKş|bG4

SrY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ɢĿɂŚ˰Egraveʗ Environmental measurements evaluations etc

QOoyM3˴ė0E7

1KʰƾG31ƛ˞0ƀ

ɢĿɂŚ˰Egrave

_4HEKş|bG4Sr

Y]bnTHORNoumlG-

G

81

reg3ƀ]bnijŚͿũ

˩ Other annual costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚɢĿɂŚǛ

ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ Other annual costs variable subtotal

˫3oumlȸ]bn

ƀ]bnijŚͿ Annual costs fixed

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ƀ]bnŃuumlͿ Annual costs variable

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘

Ts_-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ƀźľđdivide]bn Annal market participation fee

ʕyenɱoumlźľ1đdivideGamp

3ƀ]bn źľɥʿʡʭɥʿ1ǓƱ

ʬ˺Ǚ]bn Balancing costs

ͶoumlɯKěǨ1oumlʡ

ʭ1DžʯGamp3]bnʱͳ

aeligoumlcurrenɂ1Gś3ŀccedil]

bn

kW]bn4ȜƉ0ʬ˺ǙźľKG43]bnouml3źľ

Egraveȉ1Ġ=HGampccedilG3İ

0ľĜAG_4HE3]bn

Kş|b3]bnG4S

rY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ŋʢ]bnĕƊǛʗͿ Contract costs (transaction fees etc)

ŋʢ3ʰƾ1ƛ˞0ƀǓƱͳ kWh-˘ĕƊǛ

reg3]bn3ʱͳ Subtotal other costs

źľđdivide]bnʬ˺Ǚ]b

nŋʢ]bn3Ĝ˩

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKşǦ1GĽ

Ō kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƟʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źľoumlEgraveȉ Market price electricity

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

ƀſĹźľoumlEgraveȉ kWh

źľ˯ǮEgraveȉ Market price certificates

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ3

ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kWhǕʘ1DFG4źľ|b-ˬŚHGľĜGǘOacute4ecirc

THORNoumlG FITĔTHORN Feed-in tariff revenue

FIT1DGĔTHORN ż4aR

Zn]bn3ǓƱ3amp3ŀ

ccedilǓƱŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞK

ʄIgraveG31Auml ouml3źľEgrave

ȉKĠľĜAG

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐKŐampƀƄ1

ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlHG

reg3ĔTHORN3ʱͳ Subtotal other revenues

˫3reg3ĔTHORN3Ĝ˩

Ccedil ― shyocircocirc

shyocirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ʌƊntildedž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as a before-tax credit

ʌƊntilde

3ʌdž1ťGntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊntilde

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGʌ|b3ntildeƱ˚

ugrave3otildeĜHĝ otildeĜaRZ

n3ʱͳoͿG4ˬOtildeşampF

3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ

82

|b3PdlOz4aRZn1

DGʌƊntilde1ɥHGƕ)aR

Zn1ťEgraveOacuteaRZn3eacute

ƀ3˹ʌͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3

ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜaRZnG

G4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3

ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ

4_Ƹ-Gʌdž4Ĵ

ʌ13gtɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ

|-40Ϳ ʌƊƔdž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave AringΆUgraveČͿ Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as an after-tax deduction (eg depreciation)

ʌƊƔ

3ʌdž1ļ+ntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊƔ

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGYacute˖ʌdžH

ĝ otildeĜaRZn3ʱͳoͿ

G4ˬOtildeşampF3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ|b3Pdl

Oz4aRZn1DGʌƊƔ1ɥ

HG3ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜa

RZnGG4aRZn

ƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-G

ˣmiddotʇKƾ4_Ƹ-G

ʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥHGƕ

)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront cash investment subsidy

aRZnszligiquest1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ aRZnƷ]bnʱͳ1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml-3Ƚė˃ ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKǁGamp mZ-ɥė˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

shyl Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

kW-ʆHGƀʌͳ ȢƀǓƱD7ƀșŃuumlGş

|b3ʌͳ FITĔTHORNAringΆɯouml|b3PdlOzͿ Feed-in tariff revenue (eg production based incentives)

FIT G4ɯouml|b3PdlOz1DGĔTHORN

ż4aRZn3]bnK

31˞ȨHGŀccedilǓƱ1

ŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞKdivideampOacute

ouml3źľEgraveȉKdivideGľĜA

G

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐɱɥKŐampƀƄ

1ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǨCcedilœǛiacuteƄKɥ

GĴoPkʗͿ4ƀ3ǘOacuteAring

$HƀK Ś0

AͿKTHORNoumlG FITǕʘǴ Feed-in tariff policy period

FIT G4ɯ˚ugraveǓƱJHGʱǨ

aRZn1ƦŚHGʪȽɱƕŎǴ

K0ʜı3Ǵɮ0H5 FIT3ǓƱ|Aɮ0)Gė˃Ɵ

83

GFIT ǕʘǴ3Ĝ˩OacuteK1THORNoumlG

ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž Production-based before-tax credits

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b30J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊntilde

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊntilde|

b-aRZn1ɥH

G

aRZn3ʌǓƱntilde1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGɯouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿƕ)aRZn1ťEgraveOacuteņaRZneacuteƀ3˹ʌ

ͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteK

ĖGćɜaRZnGG

4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDz

ucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gt

ɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40

Ϳ ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž3ǕʘǴ Production-based before-tax credit policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHGǴ

3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɯ|b3ʌƊƔdž Production-based after- tax deductions

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b0J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊƔ

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊƔ|

b-aRZn1ɥHG

aRZn3ʌǓƱƔ1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKĖGćɜaRZnGG4

aRZnƯDzʿĝƀƄ3ʌdžKDzucirc

1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥ

HGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ɣɤļɵ3džʌƊƔͿ

ǕʘǴ Production-based after- tax deductions policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHG

Ǵ3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power bonus

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKEumlGamp

3ĽŌ kWh

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƄʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWh

źľEgraveȉ˯Ǯ Market price certificates

źľG4Ǖƃ3Ǖʘ1D)

ˬŚHampQOoyM

3aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ

3ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kW_4ɮ0Gźľ-0J(ěʍ3źľEgraveȉ-Ϳłamp3˯

Ǯ3ȼĜdivideſĹźľEgraveȉKTHORNoumlG

divideUgraveČ Accelerated Depreciation

OtildeĦ3ͳK˺middot˩D

7ʌťʘUgraveČG˩ɩ ěƀƄ3UgraveČͳ4ɤ3ˀɥƀǘ3eacuteǴD

FBBƀ|b-eacuteǴƷʱͳ

3ͼˬŚG UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

3m-4_aRZn3

EgraveOacuteKUgraveČGƀƄ$3UgraveČɞKŚʻ

GșƀƄsup2ȢƀȟͳKUgraveČGǞȰK

ɥGĴ-4_UgraveČ˩ɩEgrave

ͳKdegɡȖ˖Auml1D)˟ʏG

dj

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

yacuteYj Financial gap

aRZn3˺1ƛ˞

HGyacuteYj ʱ]bn˺]bnͿEƛ˞

HGǷeumlɲɞ93Ʒ1ƛ˞0ĔTHORN

PdlOzKƊampOacute ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave Levelized electricity generation cost

QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘ

1QOoyM-ɣɤH

amp kWh3ɠķ3ǡſĹ]bn

szlig3]bnKĠƷaumlƷ

ʰƾͿĔTHORNPdlOz˺]

bnĹʗĀĎEgrave4otildeƊɞͶ3ˀɥƀ

ǘKɥ˩ʙ

• 表紙13
• 要旨13
• 目次13
• 第1章 7ヶ国の風力発電の財務コスト13
• 第2章 デンマーク13
• 第3章 ドイツ13
• 第4章 オランダ13
• 第5章 スペイン13
• 第6章 スウェーデン13
• 第7章 スイス13
• 第8章 米国13
• 付録A 変数および用語解説13

vi

323 V=Rƶr^lJEUǀ2008THORNǁsectĺFpKGKUĮƛ 324 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 325 copy133+ăĂbBXLa 326 ƔDdQ^ 33 34

| 4 -1 36

41 -1Ctf 36 411 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 412 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 42 -1u13Ct) 37 421 ƶrƽŊƻ 422 ĴrƽŊƻ 43 -1Ct)McpY 39 431 AhmOƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ 432 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 433 copyăĂbBXLa 434 ƔDdQ^ 44 41

| 5 1 43

51 1Ctf 43 511 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 512 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 52 1 2008Wu13Ct) 46 521 ƶrƽŊƻ 522 ĴrƽŊƻ 523 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 524 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 525 ƔDdQ^ 53 1Ct) 50

| 6 4$1 52

61 4$1Ctf 52 611 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 612 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 62 4$1u13Ct) 53 621 ƶrƽŊƻ 622 ĴrƽŊƻ 623 KgtpTmƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ 624 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 625 ƔDdQ^ 63 4$1Ct) 57

| 7 60

71 Ctf 59

vii

711 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 712 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 72 u13Ct) 60 721 ƶrƽŊƻ 722 ĴrƽŊƻ 73 Ct)McpY

61

731 GKUĮƛ 732 copyăĂbBXLa 733 ƔDdQ^ 73 63

| 8 N 65

81 NCtf 65 811 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 812 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 82 N 2008Wu13Ct) 66 821 ƶrƽŊƻ 822 ĴrƽŊƻ 823 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 824 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 825 ƔDdQ^ 83 NCt) 73

A Rr 76

viii

L5

ordm 1-1 ƽŊƻGKU ordm 1-2 ƔDdQ^ī6copy=mMmSlt]amp36ŊƻGKUŐĭ ordm 1-3 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14ŊƻƻƬǀƓżĐưǁ9sup2űĞ ordm 1-4 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14divideƖGKU9sup2űĞ ordm 1-5 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14Ƥƚųugraveƕ9sup2űĞ ordm 1-6 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14ƖƭƐƥGKU9sup2űĞ ordm 1-7 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14Ĥntildeƃū9sup2űĞ ordm 1-8 shyfrac14xƃGKU[hbpN LCOEacircƼ ordm 2-1 Tm`pEƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 2-2 TmsectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 2-3 Tm`pEƢŨGKUGKUƨcTj ordm 2-4 Tm`pEcopyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 3-1 V=RTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 3-2 V=RƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 3-3 V=RƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 4-1 AhmOTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 4-2 AhmOsectĺFpKĮƛordm ordm 4-3 AhmOƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 5-1 K_=mTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 5-2 ƅĈƭKCpathornř ordm 5-3 UacuteAacuteA^Igmamp136ĔŮǀUacuteAacuteĠǂAgraveEgraveƭǁ ordm 5-4 ƻyenUacuteAacuteamp136ƽŊƻETHƬǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 5-5 YacuteČƻ^pjĠAumlŀTHORNYacutefrac34ǀ2003Dž2009THORNǁ ordm 5-6 2008THORNampƊŵ7ƽƙH=LƋ ordm 5-7 K_=m133+sectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 5-8 K_=mcopy133+ƽŊƻąŢ=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 6-1 KgtpTmTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 6-2 KgtpTmƽŊƻGKU ordm 6-3 KgtpTmƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 7-1 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 7-2 K=KƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ ordm 7-3 K=KƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 8-1 Ŧfrac14THORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 8-2 Ŧfrac14133+sectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 8-3 Ŧfrac14copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ

ix

5

ƀ ES-1 ƶrƽŊƻfrac14 LCOEǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-1 ƽŊƻ^lJEUƖĚdivideƖGKUƃū ƀ 1-2 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻoumlſŋ[hbpNǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-3 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻƔ[hbpNǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-4 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻ LCOE FGǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-5 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEUoumlſŋ[hbpN ƀ 1-6 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEUƔ[hbpN ƀ 1-7 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEU LCOE133+ FG ƀ 1-8 aacuteŀ LCOEĊIJĮƛ ƀ 2-1 Tm`pEƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (MW) ƀ 2-2 Tm`pEƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW) ƀ 2-3 ƓżĐưampiquest FIT9deg06Z]ƿlpNŏatildeŊƻħETHƬʼn6 4ƽƙŐNtildeŋ

ƀ 2-4 ƓżĐưampiquest FIT9deg0Z]ƿlpNŏatildeŊƻħETHƬʼn6 4ƽƙŐNtildeŋ ƀ 2-5 Tm`pEƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 2-6 Tm`pEƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 2-7 Tm`pEƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ƀ 2-8 2007THORN 2008THORNTm`pEamp136ƽŊƻ LCOE0 ƀ 3-1 V=RŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-2 V=RTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-3 V=RƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 3-4 V=RƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 3-5 V=RƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 3-6 V=RűĞ0 ƀ 4-1 AhmOŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-2 AhmOĪsup2THORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-3 AhmOƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 4-4 AhmOƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 4-5 AhmOƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 4-6 AhmOűĞ0 ƀ 5-1 K_=mŬŜƊŵƬ (GW) ƀ 5-2 K_=mTHORNưOgraveƬ (GW) ƀ 5-3 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 5-4 K_=mƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 5-5 K_=mƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 5-6 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEU0 ƀ 6-1 KgtpTmŬŜƊETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-2 KgtpTmTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-3 Lillgrunden^lJEU ƀ 6-4 KgtpTmƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 6-5 KgtpTmƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 6-6 KgtpTmƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

x

ƀ 6-7 KgtpTműĞ0

ƀ 7-1 K=KŬŜƊETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-2 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-3 ƖƭƐƥGKUƈţ

ƀ 7-4 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 7-5 K=KƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 7-6 K=KƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

ƀ 7-7 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEU0

ƀ 8-1 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-2 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-3 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 8-4 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 8-5 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]

ƀ 8-6 Ŧfrac14űĞ0

1

Aring 1Auml 7Ozuumljfrac14dividearingm-1

11

2009 ƀȚŵĜ (EU) 4Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşKǝamp1 10163 MW divideʟĴ-4 9994 MW Kdivideamp (EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)3 2009ƀ1GˬOtildeş3ŀdivide1DFͶoumlɯ4 EU-4ǰņ3ʟĴ-4ʖ 2frac143ǝamp0Ʌ0)G(EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)ɪɱ1AsectĀɎʥǃaeligethȿĀʂɗǛ3ŘszligIgraveBŘŚAEligʬ3ĪͲ)ampǘ3ɡɦ1DFͶoumlɯ3˞40)G szligɪ-ͶoumlɯɯKŮ-Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bnCcedilɓŝ10)Gė˃

ƟAGͶoumlɯ3ƷŞ4ͶoumlɯƯ3PygP]bn1aRZn3ɯ˩ɩ1ĕF

)ampǨɏEȣɱʄ0ʀ˾Kƾ)GH4ͶoumlɯɯaRZn3ˬOtilde]bnſĹͶKǣ

Ƞ-ʀG-GE-F=ampͶoumlɯ3Ńuumlˊ1Ū0ɗǛ]bnEsectĀɎ

ʥAǃaelig0E-G3D0ijDz3ɚƙG1AͶoumlɯ3]bn463Ĵ3

-AaRZn1=ampěĴņɮ0)FǷʃʐ-43ɏ1ɒɏKƎG

12 frac34frac12sup2

Ƿʃʐ-4ĴSrYȗͶoumlśǟąŚʖ 26ccedilʉmiddot (IEA Wind Task26)Ͷoumlɯ3]bn131ļ+ěĴ3bʃʐKɥ7 Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3ɸ3ĎįKDŽGđdivideĴ4mZoPkUhbPbQRmbPbʟĴ-G Ͷoumlɯ]bn3˟ʏF-4Ʒ]bnʰƾ˺]bnƀɯoumlɯoumlͿ

)ampǘŅ3Ȓƭ˞ʥK˰EgraveHE3]bn3ȵHaRZnǴszligiquest-ŃĀGKDŽGƛ

˞G3aRZn-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnK˷ǥȣGamp3˞0ɂŚćfrac14ĹʗĀɯ

ĎEgrave (LCOE) Kȏ˪ampLCOE 4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3PygP]bn3Ĝ˩OacuteKɠķ1otildeƊƀɯouml1ļ+ĹʗĀampOacute-GLCOE4ɮ0Gˤɏ1ʑ)ampěʍ3ǞȰBưȰKɥ˩ʙG-GǷĽġ-4HE3ˡɏD7Ni3(ș`pU˩ɩȰƄyacuteX

j`yccedilǿȰ3 2KɥG ǷĽġ1Gccedilǿ3ņccedilȤƷŞ3ˡɏEěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnK˰EgraveampA3-

GDFacirciquestɱ1˧5ǷĽġǮ3 LCOE ccedilǿʫȁ4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴatildeƷŞěɥampmǞȰKɥěˇ3aRZn3K˺GbrvbarAring13Ĵecirc3yacute]bnK˘ampA3-GɫƧ

4Ƿʃʐ1Gyacute]bn3ȣ4Ͷoumlɯ3ʇmiddotɱɥ0J(3SrY3eumlɥ1

DFʇmiddotƺG]bnͿK˰EgraveampA3-40-G Ͷoumlɯ3yacute]bn3˩ʙ-4ͶoumlɯaRZn1Gˬʹ˺1ƛ˞HGegrave

3Ǔaelig1GccedilǿʫȁK˘1G3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʣ]bn3˰Egrave1divideěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ

aRZn3ƯDzʿeumlɥ-GĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3PdlOzK˷ǥ˽Ĵ-ɣ G]bn˞ʥ3

KǥE1G ǷĽġǮ-4= LCOE KȒƭG]bn˞ʥKʞć1˷ǥș1ǷaRZn3-ɯHampb

jo`nm1˷ǥGěđdivideĴENjAEligHampmg1ļ+đɔbKŚʻ˽Ĵ1aacute

Gȣ3PnKǥE1GěĴ3ĎEgrave˞ʥKđɔbȣͶoumlɯ3 LCOE 3ŸɮKɣ GĎįKǥE1Gș3dZ`-4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEdegǯɱǞȰKʞć1˷ǥͶouml

ɯ3ĹʗĀĎEgraveK˩ʙGș1đɔb-Śʻamp]bn˞ʥ1ļ+LCOELJŚOacute3K˷ǥɥGǞȰ31D) LCOE ŃJ)GKś˯GǰƔ3ʒ-ěđdivideĴ3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3]bn˞ʥK=˷ǥGsup2ǷĽġǮ3ȑ˞-G

2

13 uumljfrac14divideAElignp[

131 -1UacuteIgrave

Ͷoumlɯ3]bn˞ʥ4ǷƷ]bnʰƾD7˺]bn-GHEě

1ěʍ3]bn˞ʥĠ=HGǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampIuml3]bn˞ʥ4Uograve A1ʆF-G ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ņͳ3ǷƷKƛ˞$3Ȓƭ˞ʥ4Ͷ-0ŅʍŅȓ-G

Ugrave 1-1 1ʆD1Ʒʱͳ3ʢ 75Ͷ3]bn-FȟF4˘1=ampD1ʡʭʡļʅˬʹ0E71ƈˬ1G]bn-GHE3]bn4oPkmZbPˏĴ33m

g1ļ+GǑĐ]bn4aRZnŐǨ1ʄIgrave3]bnKƎeacute3ǷƷ1ĠG

KʻyacutemacrGĴAG

Ugrave 1-1 uumljfrac14divideBL0+ccedilyenccedil-1UacuteIgrave

ʱ]bn1ĈGotildeĜͿ reg3]bn1żĈGotildeĜͿ ͶŶľɀͿ

ʡʭʡ ļʅ

ȥˬOtilde ĵĸ

yacute]bn ƈˬ

]^gn

68-84 2-10 1-9 1-9 1-5 1-5 1-5 1-3

ndashndashndash 35-45 20-25 10-15 5-10 5-10 5-10 5-10

ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

ʰƾ4Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥ-ż4IgraveʚɡD7ŚǴɱIgraveŗɏȏ^wbŋʢ

)ampijŚĠ=HGŃuuml1Ġ=HG34ˊ1˩ɩɱG4˩ɩń3IgraveŗɏȏBĦordfnj3]bnʗ

-GHE3]bn4ƀƄ1D)ɮ0GampaRZnǴK Xj`y3ȵHŚ

Gsup3Ś˟ʏFK˖ŅͶoumlɯaRZn-4ƀ3ɗǛ˞-Fƕ)

ʰƾƀ]bn3ņĄKĈG10G3oumlźľ-4oumlʡʭ^wb1macrɣ Gɑ

ucircouml˚Ugrave]bn03]bnͶoumlɯaRZn-ƛ˞10GľĜG LCOE3ņccedilKĈG3yacute]bn-GͶoumlɯaRZnƈˬ3ļɵ0GyacuteȒ3ʍ͵0E

71macrGOumlD7Ƿ3Ȓƭ˞ʥAĴ1D)˒ɮ0G=amp$H1ťǴƒ-Geumlɲ1

AOumlBǷ3ƷŞ1D)Ž4ż1ņE14ěĴ3ȰlaquoʌȒAͶoumlaRZn1macr

Gyacute]bnʱͳ1ƐG x 1-14Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3˟ʏF1Ġampěʍ3]bn˞ʥƷ]bnƀʰƾyacuteŃǘʗͿ

KʆampA3-GͶoumlɯaRZn3ǰʨɱɣɤə4ouml-GampLCOEKƀɯouml-ĹʗĀGƛ˞Gɯouml4Ͷ3əɡɱɚƙD7ɚŚ3aRZn^Pn3ͶɅ3ɚƙ1ŷęHG

132 s_N3N9A

ouml4ͶoumlɯaRZnƯDzʿłGĩĦ-oumlźľ4Ĵ1D)ɮ0G3aRZn4Ͷ

oumlɯ1G]bn1ɒɏKƎěoumlźľ1GĔTHORNPdlOzK=ampA3-Gɯ

1DGĔTHORN1divideěʍ3PdlOzKAuml)Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKʄś1ĮĔ-GD1GH

E3PdlOz14ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ(FIT)ɣɤ1Ɯ ampʌͳdžaumlɣė˃SrY˯ǮG4reg3VqcG

3

x 1-1 uumljfrac14divide-1 ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

133 icirc

Ͷoumlɯ1Gɶ3Ņ=žĀHEHE4ĔTHORNB]bn3˰Egrave1Ġ0

HE4ɯƴ˗3oacuteșɱƐ1GńƟG4ʇmiddotɱɥ-Gˊ1aumlɣė˃SrY3ƴ˗4

ƕǽĺɅ3ƴ˗1ȣńƟ3Ɛż1Ū0IEA3 ldquoRenewable Energy Costs and Benefits for Society (RECaBS)rdquo aRZn-4ǥƟ3ǞȰKɥƕǽĺɅaumlɣė˃SrYɅKȣɯ3]bnEacuteɲKLJŚG (RECaBs 2007)ReCABS3ǞȰ˼1DH53ccedilǿ14ș3 53ńƟĠ=HG

ȥNtildeŃuumlɁŜucircȁWbɚ1 CO2D7 CH4Ϳ reg3ņȥȩȃɅSOxNOxD7ʠőͿ ʡʭʡoumlPy93divide]bn oumlʬ˺ǙͶ3şZajnˮȲ 41DGȿͳʗͿ

ɗǛAEligʬ3ŘszligIgraveɗǛTHORN3ĴatildeɅ-3degɥ HE3ńƟ1divideͶoumlɯ4ɗǛ3ȸB$H1sup1ɗǛEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ŷęH0Ͷoumlɯƴ˗

93ƷbZ4ĀʂɗǛ1DGɯƴ˗3bZyMPɮ0GHEszlig3ɚƙ1DFͶoumlɯ

ƴ˗reg3ɯƴ˗3EgraveOacuteNjȊ1G˞0ɚƙɣ GǷʃʐ4$3ȣ˰EgraveK˱gtampA3-

40

134 LCOEGKaacute

UhSrYʃʐdg (ECN) AcircƭampXj`ym4ǷaRZn1G

ˮȲ 4 şZajn (capacity credit) ʡʭŘŚƄ1ƤƐK0ʜı-Ͷoumlɯ1D)ƕǽĺɅHʹnj

EHGKʆȣɞAring5 şZajn 303ľĜǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ 1 GW1ťƕǽĺɅK 03GWȿEG-GşZajn1G˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

4

LCOEyacuteYj (FG) 3˟ʏF3ļɵ0)G3 ECNm4otildeƊXj`ym-Ǝeacute4Uh1Gaumlɣė˃SrY3˚ugrave3ɯAEligʬĽŌK˩ʙGamp1AcircƭHampA3

-Gɠķ ECN43mKɥUhǕƃ1ěʍaumlɣė˃SrYƸ˂3ɣɤ]bnK3ʋƄ1ugrave˧GIEAWind Task26KɯŮ-đdivide˽Ĵ3]bnȒK˟ʏAGamp3mKIcircȜƼņͶoumlɯ3]bnKȄ˳ʧ1˩ʙ-Gkamp3mKȒƭ

G34ɯƯ^PcǨszligːǨˀɥƀǘƷ]bnʰƾaRZn3˺

3ɚƙ)ampmĀ3amp3vg0E71Ɓʜ0vg-GěĴD7==0ˠ

iacuteiquestiacute13mKɥ-$3ȗ˃ŅɥƟǔīHGAring5Xj`y

mKǔ˨ͶoumlɯaRZn3ěˠiacuteiquestiacute1ƕ==0ƴ˗ɱyacuteɱvg1ɥ-

GD1amp3D0Ȅ0m4Ʒ]bnʱͳ3˩ʙ3gt0Eěʍ3ɥ3ɚƙByacuteưȠ

0E71ĴQOoyM3PdlOzK˷ǥG-˞-G

135 GK|yenfrac12-N3B

Xj`ybjo`nKɥͶoumlɯ3]bnK˳ʧ1˩ʙG$3szligvgKUograve A1ʆ3bjo`nm4 6 3Z`n-ȒƭHǰeacute3 3 3Z`n4ɚŚ3Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3˩ʙ1ƛ˞0˳ʧƥĽKNjAEligGamp3A3-G ǰeacute3Z`n4ƀșŃuuml3013ŃǘKŚGA3-GH14aRZn3ɚƙƷ]b

nʱͳǑĐ]bnʱͳĎȲ2szligːǨ1ɔEampǨ]bn˩ʙ3˩ɩťǴĠ=HGƷ]b

nǑĐ]bn4ěʍ3Ȓƭ˞ʥ3ʱͳ˘-GH4ś3]bn3Ÿɮ3ŅĴȣ3

amp3ƥĽKNjAEligHG=amp3Z`n1DFPyŃuuml]bnŀK˷ǥGampͿOumleuml

ɲɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞ0E71OumlǷȣɞaRZn1macrGyacutebZKēǧGampͿ)

ampěʍ3yacuteŃǘKŚG-GE13Xj`ym4ĴBŵ3ȰlaquoʌKʾƬampA

3-G ƀșŃuuml13Z`n14ʰƾĸdegʡʭ]bn)ampƀijŚŃuuml-ȒƭHG

ěʍɶĠ=HFHEK˳ccedil͵ěĴ-ȣ-GD1G=amp-ȥǛBʧ

ȪŚ˞įŋʢ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnʗͿKŚʻG ʖ 33Z`nǕʘ13-4ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT)ʌͳdž$3reg3PdlOzKȏ˪G

3m3U`ȿʌ3EacuteɲKaRZn3Xj`y1ŚampFɑiacuteĎȲ31

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13D7LCOEXj`y13Z`n-˖

136 LCOE FGYacuteEgrave

LCOE FG4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEXj`yK˩ʙampʫȁ-GampĞɶ3ʌƊƔǷeumlɲɞKLCOE FG3otildeƊɞɥGraquo LCOE FG14ě3˩ʙ1ɮ0GXj`y3ȵHKĠGH1sup21ȑ˷G ż3ľĜLCOE3Ľġ14ƷǓaeligƀ]bnȿEgraveUgraveČD7ƸampotildeƊɞAumlJHGƕ)

3Ȃʩgtatilde1G LCOE 3˩ʙOacute4ƷǓaelig3ƾccedilotildeĜszligǴ3otildeƊʌƊƔXj`yʱͳKeȜģɠķEgraveOacute (NPV) G31ƛ˞0ɣɤCcedilœeumlɲŚʻHGLCOE3˩ʙ-4ɯG4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɚecirc1ɥHGPdlOzE3ĔTHORN3Xj`yKʾƬ0

ECN3 LCOE˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

ĎȲ2 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4ǑĐ]bnKaRZnƈʝǴ1ʄIgraveKĴʻyacutemacrGľĜ3gt3]b

nKĠamp ĎȲ3 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4szlig3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKɑiacute13sup3Śamp=Feumlɥė˃0szlig3ȿʌ3ơƣKřszlig1ĖEH

GD0Xj`yăccedil1œķG-G

5

H41ɠķ FG3˩ʙ-4Ͷoumlɯ1ijDz3ɯɱPdlOz3Xj`yfynYacute˖Ʒʌļɵ3ƷugraveƭʗͿKʾƬG3Śʻ1ļ+brvbarś FG1D)ěĴ3 LCOEɯ0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ɱPdlOz1DFśɠHampeumlɲ3K˘G

ECNm3 FG˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

˫3D1ʌƊƔ3ƀXj`y14ouml3łĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3˚ugraveƱƮD7P

dlOzƀʰƾȽeumlƢǓƱ0E71yacuteľ3ȿEgraveUgraveČeumlődž3ʌƊƔͳ

E3Xj`yĠ=HG x 1-24LCOEƖEHampĔTHORNoumlźľĔTHORNFITAEligʬĽŌʗͿPdlOzD7yacuteYj

3EcircKʆampA3-G3IJ1ʆD1FGOacuteȜ3ľĜ4aRZnɯʿ3 LCOEK31ƛ˞0ĔTHORNƖEH0)ampƧģ-F3ľĜ4 LCOE KG3ăccedil0ĔTHORNƖEHampKʆĨG

x 1minus2 aringmH7Bmacrs_N3N9AampgtKQ-1Agravedeg

ʌƊƔ3Xj`yt

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ ndash

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

FG =

1 ndash ʌɞ times ƀʰƾ t ndash ʌɞ times euml t + ʌyacute3ȿEgraveUgraveČ t

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ +

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

LCOE =

6

14 rkzoumlRuumljfrac14divide-1

șʛ-4 Ĵ3aRZn3ǎugraveKGĴatildeƷŞ1)3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKđdivideamp 7Ĵ3Ĵecirc1ʆH14 ECN3mǞȰ˼KɥG˞0Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3ŃǘKŅĴ-ȣG1DFěĴ3ccedilFͶoumlɯaRZn3|bP]bnǥʄ10Geumlɥ

ė˃0mgEHGampȳͶoumlɯ3]bn4˳ʆ0ĽġHamp]bnmg3

Ūǘ3^KĠG

15 vQ5otildeordm

3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnƟ˃0E71yacutemgszligiquest3ȜʄDzucircƟKaeligǽGF˯ǥD

ampmgfb4ŅʍŅȓ-FĽġHampmg34ĴD7mgfb1DFɮ0)G

Aring5ĽġHamp]bn3mg42008 ƀ3ͳ-˘ampɠķEgraveȉK˘G3ŚEgraveȉǥʄ-0brvbarAringAG=ampsup21ǀGvgA2008 ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlaRZnK˘amp3A3-Gś14 2008ƀntilde1ɯȲHǓƱJHampbrvbarAringKĠGė˃ƟGmgEHGampampɉķɱ0ɿɹKIcircȜG-0)ampE1 IEA Task264ěĴ3deg˘ɱ013aRZnK˘KƧIJampA3-GͶoumlɯ3ś3]bn4^PnaRZn1D)ɮ0G

ƕ)sup23mg4ěĴ3szligˊɱɛȯ˷ǥ3amp3gt1ʆampA3-3ɏ1ɫƧ-G

16 tzGKLCOErmicroQ1

Ͷoumlɯ3Ĵecirc3]bnļǷampaRZn-4đɔb13Ĥ8ͿȣHG

3đɔb4ěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3deg˘ɱ0Ȓƭ˞ʥK˘A3-ƴ˗ɱvgaRZn3ɚƙƟ

˃Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bnʰƾʗͿyacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞ

ǴĴ3ʌɞʗͿ3ǞĠ=HGđɔb-4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘKńG=ampͶoumlɯ

KǓǎGĕFʩgt4Ĵ1D)ɮ0GampͶoumlɯǕʘBPdlOzAĠ0ƕ)đɔ

b-4 LCOE3˩ʙʫȁ3gtK˘ʆG Ĵecirc3ƴ˗ɱvgKUgrave 1-21ʆĎȲ4đɔb-43ěvgKszlig3Ĵ1Ga

RZn3ˬOtildeş3divideſĹ˩ʙGđɔb3ƴ˗ɱvg3OacuteA3˘1ʆF

2008 ƀ3ˬOtildeşȣɱņ)ampbQRmʟĴ$HH 98MW85MWͿ-ƄĜņ0)G7 Ĵ- 2008 ƀ1śǟHampdeg˘ɱ0aRZnKŅŪ0FAēǧ-GD1đɔb3divide14Ĵatilde3ʱSrYş-40aRZn3ˬOtildeşKɥGđɔb3aRZ

nȒʝ14==0Ƹ˂G$3ƸĴecirc3 LCOE G4 FG ˩ʙ1ƐG40ɏKƿǐG34˞-GđɔbNjAEligG342008 ƀ3Ĵecirc3ʫȁKȣGamp3ˊɱ0ɏ10 Ugrave 1-3 4Ĵecirc3yacutevgKʆampA3-Gě3yacutevg1szlig3Ĵ3ʼnOacuteKđɔ

b3OacuteɥGYacute1ampD1đɔb3˩ʙOacuteĴecirc3 LCOE B FG 3ʫȁ1ƐG40

ECN m-4otildeƊɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞKɥGǷdivideſĹ]bn (WACC) A3˘1ʆGWACC 4˜ǘ3yacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞĴ3ʌɞͿKyacute]bnszligiquestK˷ǥGćɂŚļɆ1ĠG Ugrave 1-41ĴecircD7đɔb3 LCOE FG3ʫȁKʆ3ʫȁ142008ƀ3 LCOEyacuteYj

3˩ʙʫȁKĠG3ʫȁ4Ĵecirc3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnszligiquestK˘ampʆampA3-G3Ͷ

oumlɯaRZn-Aś3 LCOE4ľƯaRZn1D)ɮ0)G

ĎȲ4 Ugrave 1-33mĀ3sup3Ś3amp3THORNoumlmg43gt-ʆG1ɫƧraquo LCOE FG3ʫȁ4

ʟo3Ǟ-ʆG

7

Ugrave 1-2 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divideOslashfrac12JFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h b

P bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b Ͷ^Pc(MW) ĎȲ5 23 20 30 20 24 20 17 21

Ͷļǘ 7 5 5 15 41 6 50 34 szligːǨ 2695 2260 2200 2150 2600 1750 3066 2628 ƷĎȲ6(eurokW) 1250 1373 1325 1250 1591 1790 1377 1449 ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 00 15 00 00 16 00 00 06 reg3]bn

euroMWhͿ 3 0 10 3 0 0 0 1

ʰƾijŚͿ(euroMWh) 000 4633 3139 000 001 000 860 629

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 12 0 13 20 11 31 5 11

njʰƾʱͳ

(euroMWh) 12 21 28 20 11 31 7 13

đɔb divide 61 38 57 114 366 46 318 NA

Ugrave 1-3 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14dividearingmJFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h bP

bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 55 50 70 50 50 60 50 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 110 95 150 100 120 70 75 100 Oumlyacute3otildeĜͿ 80 70 80 80 87 70 0 80 Ƿ3otildeĜͿ 20 30 20 20 13 30 100 20 ǴƀͿ 13 13 15 15 20 20 15 15 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 250 298 255 300 280 210 389 280

WACCͿ 52 56 60 59 47 49 75 49

Ugrave 1-4 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divide LCOE FGyuml2008Ā

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

bPb 120 (167) oPk 5 (7) Uh 94 (131) ʟĴ ndash1 (ndash1) oPk 85 (118) bPb ndash1 (ndash1) bP 83 (115) Uh ndash3 (ndash4)

bQRm 67 (93) bP ndash3 (ndash4) ʟĴ 65 (91) mZ ndash6 (ndash8)

mZ 61 (85) bQRm ndash8 (ndash11) đɔb 68 (95) đɔb NA

Ugrave 1-41ʆampD1Ĵecirc3 LCOE4bPb3 120MWh167oMWhͿĎȲ7EmZ3 61MWh85oMWhͿ=-Gđɔb3 LCOE4 68MWh95oMWhͿLJŚGěĴ3 LCOE ɮ0)G34Ĵecirc3ɯoumlʰƾǓaeligƷ]bn˺ǞȰ31DGA3-Gș1ěĴ3 LCOE1HE3vgĒltƐKDŽG

ĎȲ5 DF˳Ͷoumlɯ]bnccedilǿ14gɷƑtzſĹͶ)amp˞0vgKĠSrYAElig

ʬ1Gǥʄ0sup3ŚKĠG10G1ʆampLJŚOacute4ǷǮ1ʆampsup2ń3ƴ˗BĴşǦ1ȣ-GD

1ș3ćʣ0shyȓ3gtKʆA3G ĎȲ6 Yacute1ampD1Ʒ]bnD7aRZnƈˬ4 2008ƀ3A3sup3ŚGś14Ʒ]bnͶ3

ɯȲʗͿ14 2008ƀsup2ntilde3ǘŒĠ=HGė˃ƟG ĎȲ7 ɐǯn 1o139-njʙ

8

17 LCOEzoacuteplusmnecirc

ŅĴccedilǿ-4ěĴ1G 43˞0]bnvg3 LCOE93ƐKDŽ)ampĴecirc1 LCOEKLJŚ63]bnvgKĴecirc3Oacute$3reg3vgKđɔb3Oacuteamp3ccedilǿ14

|bPɂŚļɆđɔb3vgOacuteͿȣampĴecirc3THORNoumlvg3ƐKegraveFamp

3ŅĴccedilǿ-ȏ˯amp˞0vg14ɯoumlƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnKĠ

ampș13ʫȁKszlig3Ĵ3-ȣamp AringěĴ3szligːǨ3 LCOE 93ƐKx 1-3 1ʆ3IJ4 3 3ǥʄ0˱bKȣ

ampA3-G=Ɍˎ3Ȍ[y4Yacute1Ugrave 1-4 -ʆampěĴ3 LCOE K˘A3-szligTHORNoumlvgKĴecirc1ʆGș1ʳ4đɔbKʆA3-|bP3 LCOEK 68MWhszligvgKđɔb3OacuteG=ampʲˎ3jn4ȼĜbKʆA3-szligːǨKĴecirc3Oacute

$3reg3vgKđɔb3OacuteG x 1-31-6 4$HHɯouml˫đɔͿƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnK˘G

Ĵecirc3 LCOEɌˎ3Ȍ[yͿđɔb3 LCOEʳͿ43IJ-AŚ˞0]bnvg4ěIJ-ɮ0)FHKV-ccedilFǦʆG

x 1-3 rmicroQ1tzfrac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀkwIumlsect

x 1-4 rmicroQ1tzccedil-1kwIumlsect

9

x 1-5 rmicroQ1tzigraveeacuteETHaeligkwIumlsect

x 1-6 rmicroQ1tzccedilntildeacirciacute-1kwIumlsect

ěĴ3˞0Ͷoumlɯ]bn3vg34sup23D1˷ǥ-GampH1E0Ϳ frac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀăszligːǨ3Ĵ1DG14==0aacuteD7Iumlecirc3˞įƐ

GAring5oPk-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ1D)aRZnɯ4ͶɅ3 Ć1ƹB

EHGmZ-4Ĵatilde3ǵɯ3^PnKɯGntilde1Ͷ3ʹˬ˩1D)Ǡœ3Ͷ

oumlɯ^Pn3ˬOtildeǭǝEumlHGľĜAF$3ʫȁĴatilde3eacuteǴ3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn3

2008ƀ1ˬOtildeǭǝ3ť0)GbPb-4ű3NZdbEHGamp2008ƀ1śǟHampɯaRZn3ǘ4ŚHampA310)GʟĴ14Uumlccedil1ˍō0ͶɅ

KDzGaRZn^PnǘŅGʳ93NZdbeumlɥė˃ɞEHGamp

aRZnɥ^PnȪŚ14FFľĜ1D)4ɯ3aeligoumlƶiacuteKGKƖ00)

GǞbQRm-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ4Ƿʃʐ3reg3Ĵ4ĪͲ10)0Uh-4

FIT3ĽŌ3szligːǨ3ǰņOacute-ȪEHGampǰ0^PnKɯampFǰǝ3ƴ˗KɥampFGyacutePdlOzŪ00)Gė˃ƟG

ccedil-1ăƷ]bn4Ĵ1D)˒ɮ0GmZ-AUh-AszligːǨ1ļ+

ugraveƭ3 FITĽŌͶ3Ƹ1Ɛƕ)aRZn3Ʒ]bn1ƐGmZ-4szligːǨampF3˚ugrave3ͳKǰņ1Gampņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶUacuteYacute

HGǞUh-4˚ugraveKszligːǨ3ʜıatildeGampDF]bn3ŘͶ

10

ƴ˗ˡˡHGmZ-4oumlʡʭ93ʡ]bn)ampͶoumlɯaRZn3

ŨTHORN]bn34aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZn3So_oumlȸʿͿ

ǓƱ)G$3ampmZ3ʡ]bn4Ʒ]bn1Ġ=H0bPo

Pk$3reg33Ĵ-4ʡ]bn$3reg3ʡʭŀƍ]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿǓ

Ʊ)Famp)H4Ʒ]bn1ĠEHGbQRm14Ʒ]bn3ethȿ

ė˃10GD0ćʣĀHampʡʭʡưGoPk-4ͶoumlɯͶɅ3 Ć

1ƼņampʫȁɯbrvbarȐʿ4$3˚UgraveưȠŅ3aRZn-gɷƑ3ņ0ͶK

DFľƯ1ˬʹGKƖ00)GƷ]bn4gɷƑD7tz3ǘOacuteņ

0GͿbPb-4ű3ͶoumlɯaRZnɥ^Pn93NZdb=ampˠ

ȕ3ʪȽKȘGampƷ]bn0)G ʟĴ-4ņˠȕ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥEacuteɲ4ɚ1Ͷ3THORN1EcircFɯȲˠȕ

ņ0G1HEgraveȉotildeƊHG˯ǥHGʟĴ3QOoyM4đɔbD

FAaRZnˠȕņƷ]bnfrac12ampʟĴ3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4ǘotildeƊĖEHG

ơƣGˉģȻ1bQRm-4aRZn3ˠȕņ0)AEgraveȉ3otildeƊ

3ơƣ40H4 2008ƀ3bQRm3ˬʹ]bnmampaRZnşȣŪ0)ampamp-ė˃ƟG

igraveeacuteETHaeligăěĴʆampʰƾ3mg4ʄśƟşǦ1Iacuteͱ-0ǘOacute-G

mZ-4żͶoumlɯaRZn3OumlȖʿ4 5Έ10 ƀ3Ǵɱʰƾ^wbŋʢKƛ˞FH4ƀʢ 25kWĽġHGUh-4ʰƾ14żaRZnszligiquest-Ś3EgraveȉHG^wbŋʢ]bnD7ĸdegĠ=HFĽġH

G]bn45Έ23kWņoPk-Aǰfrac12 5ƀ3řszlig0^wbŋʢƛ˞HGľĜGbPb-4ʰƾ3ʪEHGuacuteNZd`wlO

3ĪͲ0E71Ͷ3ɼȧBcentȵ1D)reg3ĴDFʰƾ0)GʟĴ3

ʰƾ4ƀŨTHORNHampņˠȕ0aRZn-4ſĹfrac120)GD-GʟĴ-4

YN~jZbzoG4ɯȗ3ĦKordfnjGǨǴǣG˯ƻAcedilEHF

ƕ)ĽġHGmg3ʰƾ4ũ˰EgraveHGė˃ƟGoPk-AOtildeĦ3ordfnj

ƛ˞HGampũˠȕaRZn-4ʰƾ0)G=ampoPk4szligiquest3

ʰƾ3˞0Ȓƭ˞ʥͳ0ŚǴɱɠĸˡŤ3]bnĽġHGbQRm

-4ʰƾaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒ɮ0)G ccedilntildeacirciacute-1ăͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bn4ʟĴsup2ń3Ĵ-4ĝʋƄ-Gm

ZoPkUh-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿub`n1ļ+Ͷouml

ɯaRZn3K˺Goumlmiddotʇ-GľĜKż4aRZn$3A31D

)K˺GmZbQRm-4ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˊɱ1frac12

bZ3Ʒȗ˟0H$HaRZn33ȪŚ1ēǧHGʟĴsup2ń33Ĵ-

AaRZn3˺3Oumlȣɞ40)Fż4 60Έ87-G ʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn˺ǞȰ4(E5Aringńɱ-G2008 ƀ14ʟĴ3Ņ3aRZnż1ˇŹǷȣɞ55 100Ϳ-˺HaRZn1ļ+Ouml4lte-)ampH4Ǖƃ3yacute3˚ugraveiacuteƄ3amp-F3iacuteƄ1DFgjZb

SZPlO13ʀEHGSZPlOyMPpbȇƉɯ˖1DGǷ˺Ϳ1ɚĀHampƏƩ

ƞŀampgjZbSZPlOyMPpbUacuteYacuteHampampʟĴ-4regĴDFAǷ]bn

0)G0J(gjZbSZPlO4żOumlDFAͿ=ampʟĴ-4Ouml1D

G˺1D)aRZn3ɅKʄIgraveampb-4aRZn-40Ȱlaquo|-

3OumlK)GľĜ)amp =-3=x 1-31-61ʆamp 43˞0]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥD7ěĴ3 LCOEđɔ

b3 LCOEKx 1-71ʆ

11

x 1-7 rmicroQ1tzordfUacuteIgravekwIumlsect

x 1-8 4˞0]bnŃǘ3 LCOE 93ƐKE1ȣȏ˪Gamp1˞0]bnvgKĴecirc-40[1G3IJ-4ěĴ3]bnŃǘ3ƐD7đɔbȣampěĴ3 LCOE3ņKʆGȌ[y4ěĴ3 LCOE KŀdivideGOacuteKʆʲ3Ȍ[y4đɔbDFAěĴ3 LCOE Kfrac12GOacuteKʆ˞0]bnvgKLCOE đɔbDFŀdivideampʋƄȌ[yͿ3ņ1E1ʆGAring5ɯouml3ǰũŃǘ4bPbĽġampǘOacute-G

3Ĵ3ʰƾƷ]bnDFA LCOE KŀdivideG3ǰfrac12OacuteEǰOacute=-3Ĵecirc3THORNoumlvg3ʜıEɯoumlD7Ʒ]bn LCOE 1ǰAƐampJGH4ˊ1Đ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOEƨƄccedilǿˈG (IEA 2010 Cory and Schwabe 2009)ˉģȻ1ĽġHampʰƾ3ʜı4đɔbȣƷ]bn˺]bnDFA LCOE ŀdivide1ƐG3E ʰƾmg3ʄśƟeumlɥė˃Ɵƕ)THORNoumlvg3Ĵ1DG3ņLCOELJŚOacute3ȜʄƟKEHampA31ampė˃ƟGʰƾ1įGŸɮKȿEampE0Gccedilǿ

ƛ˞-GʾEHG

x 1-8 tzSUacute-1JFQ5 LCOEoslash

12

18 rkzacuteRuumljfrac14divide-1

ECN3m1DF-0ȳ1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯƯ3 LCOEKLJŚG-GraquoɠǨɏ-eumlɥ-GȳaRZn3mg4EHFɚ1Ĵecirc3 LCOE KLJŚG31ƛ˞0THORNoumlŃǘ3řszlig0mgƉGƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ1GĴecirc3 LCOE ȣ4˖)E$3đɔbAˬ0sup23Ugrave 1-5 D7 1-6 1ĽġHG]bn˺3mg3KʆɫƧmZ-4ʡʭ93ʡD7ȷƂz3ƛ˞ƟKʇmiddotɱɥGamp

aRZn3ɯȐʿHKƺ0-G3ccedilǿ-ɥampm4aR

Zn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏ1ʑ)ampA3-GampmZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF1ēǧ0m

Āccedilǿ-4Aumlɥ0)ampHE3ʡʭʡ]bnKĠG-mZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF4

ʢ 3000kW10Gx 1-71HE3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1˟ʏA)amp LCOEyacuteYjKʆ

Ugrave 1-5 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+fOslashfrac12JFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn aRZn3ɛȯ 2007ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF

ʓŶƀ 2007ƀ 2010ƀƔĄ ɚŚH ɯƯ^Pc(MW) 20 23 50

Ͷļǘ 60 90 12 szligːǨ 3350 3800 3700 Ʒ(eurokW) 3315 1883 3230

ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 0 0 0 reg3]bn(euroMWh) 11 0 0 ʰƾijŚͿ

(euroMWh) 149 0 123

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 0 24 0

njʰƾʱͳ(euroMWh) 44 24 33

ˀɥƀǘ 15 25 20

x 1-6 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+faringmJFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 45 65 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 120 112 150 OumlotildeĜͿ 50 26 70 ǷotildeĜͿ 50 74 30 ǴƀͿ 15 13 12 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 255 250 298

WACCͿ 79 92 77

Ugrave 1-7 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+f LCOEthornFG

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

Prinses Amalia 166 (231) oPkˊcurrenɂ NA oPkˊcurrenɂ 156 (217) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 6 (8) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 88 (122) Prinses Amalia 5 (7)

13

19 T LCOEYacuteEgravesup2

LCOE4==0ɶɱuumlȗD7˸ʿ3amp1˩ʙHGˊźȤǕʘȪŚʿƷŞaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿʗě3ɚŚ3qcKɄamp LCOE KeumlɥGamp) LCOE 1AumlJHGưȰ4ȓ-40LCOEK3ʋƄ˳LJŚGG43ʋƄ3sup3Śƛ˞4AumlɥG˩ʙǞȰ1D)==-FH LCOE 3ʫȁ1˒ƐG3ampecirc3 LCOE ˩ʙǞȰK=-3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECNmD7ǞȰťȣsup21˷ǥG Aring5ș˩ɩ`pU-4Ʒ]bn3ɠķOacuteD7ʇmiddotɱotildeƊɞKɥotildeFƊampƀ]bn3ſ

Ĺ1ļ+ćʣĀampdeg˘OacuteKɥ LCOE K˟ʏAGľĜG3Ni-4OumlǷȣɞOumlǷ]bnǴȰlaquoʌ)ampǥʄ0ɅʄIgraveǼacute3sup3Ś0H0$3degJF3ćʣ

0ǞȰ-4otildeƊɞLOacute3gtKɥF$H1D)yacuteưȠ3ɚƙKszlig˘GIEA 3Projected Costs of Generation Electricityrdquo (IEA2010) D7IEA World Energy Outlook 2009rdquo (IEA 2009) 43NiKɥFsup23Ɖ1DF LCOEK˩ʙG

3Ni-4IEA 4otildeƊɞKʇmiddotɱɅ]bn13˘G3]bn4ʇmiddotszligiquestɚŚ

3ƴ˗1ƷG1ƺ]bnK˘ (IEA2010)3ʇmiddotɱ˟ĸEIEA4otildeƊɞ 5Έ10KɥF5KȣɱŘŚɱ0ɢĿ1GOumlyacuteŰ˖bZ3frac12ƷŞeumlɥ-Gɞ1310K˒ʪȽɱƴ˗ɱbZD7EgraveȉbZ1ɷGƷŞ3Ʒ]bn13G (IEA2010)DFćʣĀampș˩ɩ`pU1DFTHORNoumlvg3ǘKǰũ1˳ʧƄ1D)ěʍ3ɯĺ3 LCOE KşǦ1ȣG-G H41 ɯȐʿ4 ECNm3D0Ƅ0Xj`ymKAuml)ɚŚ3aRZn

ě3 LCOE0E71ȜģɠķEgraveOacuteatildeĔɲɞȽǴ)ampreg3yacuteƿȔK˰EgraveG3m1˜ǘ3ƯDzʿ3ǥʄ0˺3ntildeNjǼacuteʌ3Ɛ$3reg3ĔTHORNG4]bn3ƐKĠ

GľĜAGǨ143mKɥegrave3ɉķɱ0]bn3ȵHK˰EgraveampFparaȐ3ɚŚ3

aRZn93ƷKė˃1GeumlɲƖEHGD0SrYEgraveȉKȪŚampFG(Harper et al 2007)3˳ʧ0ǞȰKɥampľĜƷ]bnBƀʪ-0ǘŅ3˞į LCOE 1ƐG10GaRZnƈˬ3ǰʨɱ0ȪŚȖ4ƷŞ1GampͶoumlɯ3ʮʯɱ0ˬʹKė˃1G]bn3OacuteKɡ˥

G14ƷŞ3ˡɏKɡ˥G˞-G Aring3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECN m4ƾccedilƷŞ1ƯŚ3Ƿeumlɲɞ (ROE) KIgrave˯aR

ZnȢ1 LCOEK˰EgraveGamp3Ƅ0Xj`ym-GYacute1ampD1ECN3Xj`ymKE1˳ʧ0A31G-ǷD7OumleumlőKƾ˺ȒKǥʄ1˘-

G=ampͶoumlɯ3]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏE˘-aRZnKGamp

3ĔTHORN3ȵH-ɸȡ0H50E0Ͷoumlɯ]bnK˟ʏG-G

110 LCOEYacuteEgraveocircicedilplusmnecirc

Ugrave 1-8 4otildeƊɞ LCOE ǞȰKȣampA3-GXj`yccedilǿ3ćʣ0ǞȰƄ0ǞȰ3ǞKɥ3otildeƊɞ1 LCOE K˟ʏFreg3egrave3]bnvgKě3đɔb1ɔEŚampE1HEʿ3ǞȰ1D)đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿKɣ GotildeƊɞK˘G

t=1Tsum Ʒ t + ʰƾ t + ɗǛ t + Ɏʥ]bn t + ǑĐ t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

LCOE =

t=1Tsum ɯouml t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

Ϳ

14

ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3ˡɏELdeg˘ɱ0otildeƊɞ4Ȥ3aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿG4ƷŞ3ˡɏ1ʑ

)ampotildeƊɞ3OacuteDFfrac120GtimesğGIEA2010 1DH5ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3otildeƊɞfrac120)Gɡɦ4bZŪǘ3ȤƷŞ-40ǘŅ3IumllaquoƷŞ1ccedilǗHGampɷGbZ˺]bn

Ū00Gamp-G$H1sup1ʇmiddotɱˡɏE3 LCOE 3˟ʏFAȤƷŞ3˟ʏFDFAfrac120Gtimesğ1G

Ugrave 1-8 icedil LCOEsup2plusmnecirc

ǞȰͽˡɏ ˡɏ ˺]

bn3Ʋ ɥ m

otildeƊɞ3

ʜı

otildeƊɞ3ʜı

1G LCOE

đɔb3

LCOEKɣ GotildeƊɞ

ș`pU ˩ɩ3ćʣ˩ʙ

agraveɱʇmiddotɱ ƷŞ3ˡɏ

otildeƊɞ1 ĠG IEA2010 5Έ10

53Έ70MWh

IEA3ǞȰͿ

95 IEA3ǞȰͿ

ƄXj`

yccedilǿ

aRZn ɯbrvbarȐʿG

4ȤƷŞ ǥʄ1Śʻ ECN2008 75Έ15

(ROE) 64Έ76

MWh 10

ECN3ǞȰͿ

reg3szlig3Ńǘ1đɔb3ntildeNjǼacuteKɥ Ƿccedilǿ-ĽġHamp ROE3ʜı1ļ+

Ugrave 1-8 1ʆD1(E3Ni-ALotildeƊɞ3 LCOE Oacute1˒ƐG95otildeƊɞ4ʇmiddot3ˡɏK˘ʞɬ0˩ʙȰKɥđɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿK˩ʙG31ƛ˞0Oacute-Gƕ)Ƿʃʐ3đdivide˽ĴĽġampmg1ļ+0E3otildeƊɞ4ǰņOacute1+4-F

IEA-43ʜıK 5Έ10GH4ʞɬĀampʇmiddotɱ˩ɩǞȰKɥƄXj`yưȰ3ordmOacuteKǥE1ampA3-G 1frac12Ǟ3otildeƊɞNjȊHampŽ3ǰAfrac12OacuteͿˊƷŞ3bK˘amp1ɥEHGƕ)

LCOEK˩ʙG14=ampͶoumlɯ3 LCOEKreg3Ʌ3 LCOEȣG14aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏG4DFƁoumlʡʭ|3ˡɏ3(E1ʑ)GKǥʄ1GėȘ-G

otildeƊɞ3Ƹ4$3ˡɏ1ťƜGdz=LCOEK˘ěʍ3ƉKɥGľĜ4ʑˆGˡɏotildeƊɞ$3reg3vg3OacuteKǥʄ1˥Gƛ˞HG

111 Iumlatilde

IEAWind Task263ʫȁELCOEĴ1D)ņɮ0)GJG33ƄĜ4ɯoumlƷɥ˺)ampě]bn3Ɛ1DGA3HGcurrenƦFĴŞ3 LCOE3Ÿɮ1ǰAƐamp34Ƿɱ0ͶȯG4Ͷ3ƴ˗shyȓ1ļ+currenɂHGɯouml-G=amp

ǷɱǓaeligD7ͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ǽacuteņɮ0GEźľoumlAͶoumlɯ3]bnszligiquest

1˒ƐGE1ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾAěĴ-˒ɮ0FH LCOE 1ņ1Ɛamp 63ɂŚļɆ-SrY3]bnszligˊK˘ LCOE 3Ɵ4ĴBɶɱ˸ʿ$3reg3eumlɥʿ3

-ćʣ0ȣ-GD1ƝJHGLCOE3ěʍ3˩ʙ3ˡɏE3D10HampKȜʄ1ɡ˥Gƛ˞GLCOE4ɪaacute-Aordfnjė˃0˩ʙ-A0IɚŚ3qc1ɥHGDzɲ-Eacuteeuml0k-Gƕ)ȣD7$3ʫȁ3˥14ɫƧGdz=

rOtildemiddot

Cory and Schwabe 2010 ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financial Variablesrdquo httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2009) ldquoThe Economics of Wind Energy A Report by the European Wind

15

Energy Associationrdquo March 2009 Available at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentspublicationsreportsEconomics_of _Wind_Main_Report_FINAL-lrpdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2010) ldquoWind in Power 2009 European Statisticsrdquo The European Wind Energy Association February 2010 Accessed at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentsstatistics100401_General_Stats_20 09pdf

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review and Comparative Analysisrdquo Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 Accessed at httpeetdlblgoveaempreports63434pdf

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2006) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2006rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2006weo2006pdf

IEA (2008) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2008rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2008weo2008pdf

IEA (2009) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2009rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgWbookshopaddaspxid=388

IEA (2010) ldquoProjected Costs of Generating Electricityrdquo 2010 Edition Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgpublicationsfree_new_DescaspPUBS_ID=2207

RECaBs (2007) ldquoRECaBs Interactive Renewable Energy Calculatorrdquo Renewable Energy Calculator Accessed August 2010 at httpwwwrecabsorg

Wiser R Bolinger M (2010) ldquo2009 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy August 2010 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs2009_wind_technologies_market_reportpdf

16

Aring 2Auml NDQ+

21 NDQ+uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ȑ˞0E71]bn3ɚƙKG-

4 2008 ƀ3D7ȳͶoumlɯƴ˗1GĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1ɒɏKƎG

211 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

2008ƀǶ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ĝ˩ 3179MW 2756MWȳ 423MWͿ-H4 2007ƀǶ3ˬOtildeş1ťʢ 1252000ƀ3ˬOtildeşDFA 32ŀdivideG2001ƀE 2008ƀ=-1ŀdivideampˬOtildeş3ʢĄǘ4ȳͶoumlɯ1DGA3-G2008 ƀ1ȳ-ƈˬ3ȳQOoyM4 3F(64 2009ƀ1řƭA64 2010ƀʈ1ŐGcurrenŚ-GˮȲ 5 x 2-1 1ʆD1ŨTHORN3Ƅ4Ǵ15EņJG2001ƀE 2003ƀ1

ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 725MW ŀdivideamp2004 ƀE 2007 ƀ=-4 8MW ŀdivideamp10H4 2003 ƀ1śǟHampaRZn3ǕɱǓǎ˩ɩņŽ1ȿͳHampʫȁ-GHK˚amp1 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampǝamp0ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFͶ3ƈˬǝamp1ȲɶHG10)amp2008ƀ3 FITŨTHORNƔ2010ƀ 7DZǶ=-1Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 280MWŀdivideG (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ1D)mZ3ʱoumlȸ3ʢ 20AEligʬHG

x 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

ˮȲ 5 Roslashdsand IIȳͶoumlɯƯ4 2010ƀ 8DZ1ŐG

17

mZ4ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ƀșɶȔKŚ0EU 3˞Ȩ1DH5mZ4 2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯ-ʱSrYȸ3 30Kamp3˩ɩKʘŚ0H50E0EU-4szlig3divideɳĴ13aumlɣė˃SrY3ɶȔOacuteKƭGamp3˖uuml˩ɩ3AcircƭKʻyacutemacrFm

Z4 2010ƀ 6DZ1Ĵ3˖uuml˩ɩKɯ˘G3˩ɩ-42020ƀ=-1ˬOtildeşKʢ 4 GW$H1D)Ͷoumlɯ4 11000 GWh10GcurrenƦHG=ampʱş3 3ccedil3 1D7ouml3ʢ 50Kȳ1ˬʹGͶEƖGcurrenƦHG (Kemin 2010)(0gt12009ƀ3ɯouml4ʢ 6700 MWh-G2010 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3currenɂ4ěȚŵdivideɳĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010) ʁǴɶȔ2008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MW3divide0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ˬ

Otildeş 350 MW3ǝˬŚEHG3ɶȔOacute3Ąccedil4Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ1D)ƭA3-$H1D)ʦʏş4 175 MWŀdivideG10GĸǞ3˩ɩƎŬ42012ƀ=-1 350MW1divideş 150 MWKdivideGamp3˩ɩKˠŚ0H50E0 ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MWKdivideGʁǴɶȔ433ņˠȕ0ȳͶoumlɯƯ0J( Horns

Rev II209 MW2009ƀ 9DZŐͿRoslashdsand II207 MW2010ƀʈʓŶcurrenŚͿAnholt400 MW2012ƀ12DZʓŶcurrenŚͿ1DFƭHG˟gt-G

Ugrave 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

1761 2358 2464 2697 2708 2716 2720 2728 2717 2756 2985 2621

ȳ 11 50 50 210 423 423 423 423 423 423 856 1339

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 2-2 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

176 1 597 106 183 12 8 4 8 ndash11 39 ndash38 ndash135

ȳ 11 39 0 210 223 0 0 0 0 0 100 ndash14

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

212 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1iacuteŚHampaumlɣė˃SrYȰ1DFͶoumlɯaRZn3ǝamp0ĽiacuteƄŨTHORNHampǝamp03ͶoumlɯaRZnD7UoN13ȳaRZnĎȲ8-4HAszligːǨ

22000Ǩ1igraveG=-bjnźľEgraveȉ1divide 025mZZrkW0034kW ĎȲ9 0047okWͿ3ugraveƭNjAEligHGĎȲ10szligːǨ˫3Ǩ1igraveampƔ4źľEgraveȉKĖĕG10

G Ͷ1ť4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥƀǘ3Ǵ ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3˚ugraveƀ 0023mZ

ZrkW00037kW 0005okWͿ˚ugraveHG

ĎȲ8 UoNaRZn134ȳͶoumlɯƯ3THORNǸư4ecirc1ƈˬHGȳͶoumlɯƯ3aRZn

ŚʻHG13ȳͶoumlɯƯUoNɧ˻db1DFƈˬHG ĎȲ9 17353mZZr ĎȲ10 ɠ˖3Egraveȉ˚ugraveiacuteƄ4ͶoumlɯaRZn93ugraveƭK 1 kWampF 010mZZr0013Ϳamp

[1degJ)ŨTHORNHampA3-G

18

ˊɱ1mZ-4ͶszligːǨ- 22000Ǩ3ɯK˖147ƀE 10ƀGAring5 3 MWͶKˬʹGH5FIT4ș3D1ȪŚHGĎȲ11

3 MWͶszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 3000 kWh

3000 kWh times 22000 = 66 GWh FITʬ˺Ǚ˚ugrave43 MWͶ 66 GWhɯG=-3ǴǓƱJHG3Oacute4ș3D10G

(66 GWh times 025Zr) + (66 GWh times 0023Zr) = 18064200Zr

Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4ʽǹĀampͶKǑĐGǝˠ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1A

ɥHG3ͳ4ǑĐHampˬOtildeş3 2ETHKɣɤGamp3szligːǨ 12000Ǩ1ť 008mZZrkW001kW 00139okWͿ-GAring5 225 kW3ͶKTHORNǝˠ3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn1D)ǑĐGľĜˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugraveK˩ʙGsup23D10G

225 kW times 2ļszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 450 kWh

450 kWh times 12000 = 54 GW

ǑĐamp 225 kWͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4

54 GWh times 008Zr = 432000Zr 3˚ugraveɥHG34450 kWǵɄ3ͶKǑĐGľĜ1EHG3˚ugrave3ơƣKĖGamp

3ǝˠaRZn-ǑĐGͶ3ǘ1iacuteˬEHGJ-403˚ugraveɥHG34

450 kWǵɄ3ͶK˩ 175 MWKǑĐGľĜ1EHG szligːǨ1ļ+ FIT-4Ś3 kWh3ɯǨ-40ˊ1tzgɷƑņͶD

FAņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶ93ƷUacuteHGAring5 3 MW 3ɯȗ3szligːǨampFɯouml (kWh) 415 MWͶ3 2ETH-ƕ)ĖĕG˚ugrave3ͳAETH10G ș1ʆUgrave 2-3D7 2-44FITͶoumlaRZn1GͶ3Ƹ1ĒltƐKʆampA3-3

Aring4ś3aRZn1ļ+G

Ugrave 2-3 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITuh AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave[]psup312

ɯȗ3

ˠȕ

MWͿ

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ ouml

MWhͿ

Ͷ 1ļampF3aRZn]bn

(DKK)

oumlłͳ (DKK)

ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 223 098 30 90 90 7497 23430 5250 224 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 223 098 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 227 100

(Nielsen et al 2010)

ĎȲ11 3Aring4reg3Ĵ3ʒ14Ġ=H0ampmZZr-ĽġG ĎȲ12 ĝ

19

Ugrave 2-4 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITu AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave]

ɯȗ

^Pc(MW)

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ

ouml (MWh)

Ͷ 1ļampF3aR

Zn]bn

(DKK)

ouml łͳ(DKK)

˚ugrave

(DKK) ʱĔTHORN

(DKK) ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 1650 6610 298 100 30 90 90 7497 2343 5250 1650 6900 295 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 1650 8920 273 092 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 990 5220 281 094

(Nielsen et al 2010)

˫3AringEņĺ3gg1ƷGDFAņĺ3ɯȗ1ƷGǞszligːǨ1ļ+

FIT 3ơƣKĖBJGUgrave 2-3 1ʆHGD1ǰAʪȽucircɞ3ˍͶ4ņĺgKOtildeamp 18 MW3ȣɱũĺ3Ͷ-GH4szlig3Ͷ-Ś3ɯouml kWhKļ1ampľĜ3 FIT1AƎ4=GUgrave 2-4 EszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT E3divideɱĔTHORNƖEHB34gɷƑũtzfrac12 3 MW3ɯȗ-Fȣɱũĺ3ɯȗ4 3frac141ˑ(GJG

FIT3ļɆszligːǨKɥGjn4currenˠŚHampˬOtildeşKƭGamp1ˬʹHGͶ3ǘŪ00G-G=ampH1DFgɷƑtz3OacuteKGjnAŪ00G

HE 2 3ʹ˩ɩKʘŚaRZnKĸUcirc-ĖTHORNHAE1ĪͲ0GľĜGszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT 4mZ3ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ʁǴɱɶȔOacute)ampˬOtildeş1ļ+ǕʘɱɶȔOacuteƭHGD1Gamp3A3-G szligːǨK FIT 3ļɆG3mjn4˚ugrave1DFźľ3ȝgtɣ GampǰAʪȽɱucircɞ

3ˍͶƛAaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ1)ǰAͺoumlɱ0gw-400G-G

$3ampǰʨɱ14Ͷoumlɯreg3ɅDFA10F20mZ-43ƏƉ3 FIT AumlJHGampɯoumlKļɆampɶȔOacuteƭ1G]bn0Gʫȁ0G

22 NDQ+ 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-4mZ1G 2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKG-ɥampmg42008 ƀ1˩ɩG4śǟHampaRZn3ſĹOacute1ļ+A3-GͶ93Ʒ]bn4^Pn3Ǽacute1DFŚ-40mZ-4ɯ]bnȣɱŚGD-GˬOtildeş MWampF3Ʒ]bn14ǰņ- 503GeacuteƀƄ3ɯouml MWh ampFƷ]bn3Ńuumlɞ4 15ǵɄ-G

221 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para mZ3ͶoumlɯaRZ-n4ˊ1Ū0Ͷǘ3Έ12ļͿ3ͶʺKɥG˩ɩW

PoP-4Ū0A 3ļ3ͶKɷʳɛG4ʵB0ŔKNJD1=ʹGGH4ͶK 1 ļccedilǗɱ1ʹGˡˢɱĉƋ0GE-GmZ14ņˠȕQOoyM3AringGbPBʟĴņ0A3-40ǰņˠȕ3b4Ͷ 20ļKˬʹGʱş 63 MWͿ

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹŚȉş4 19 MW-F$3gɷƑ4 80 mtz4 72 m-G2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ-ǰAˊɱ034 23 MW3Ͷ-F$3tz4 80 mgɷƑ4 93 m-G

(b) BL0+Ouml mZ3Ͷğ4ˊ1˝ğ-GampͶ3^PnɡƦɱ034āȷȮų10G

20

ˊɱ1ͶɅ4ǾŪ00)GȮųĸŻ$3Ģ-4ƀſĹͶ 7 msKGH4 2 MWͶtz 80 mͿ1ļ1ťszligːǨʢ 2500Ǩ1ɸƎG(Danish Energy Agency 2010)2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3 2009ƀƄ3szligːǨ4ſĹ 2639Ǩ-)amp2009ƀ3mZ3ͶɅ4żƀ3 88-2008 ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3szligːǨ4szligˀɥƀǘſĹ-ʢ 3000 Ǩ10GcurrenƦHGɫƧszligːǨ3LJŚOacute4mZszligiquest3ͶɅl`1GA3-402008ƀ1ˬʹH2009ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+˩ʙampA3-G

(c) ccedil-1 2008ƀƄ3deg˘ɱ0aRZnƷ]bn141100kW1529okWͿE 1300kW1807

okWͿ=-F$3ſĹ4 1250 kW1738 okWͿ-GEgraveȉ4 2008 ƀ1xZ1ampƔ2009ƀ 2010ƀ1ņŽ1frac12GɚƙG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ1GͶ3ʰƾ4IgraveIcircɡ^wbŋʢĸdegĵĸʚɡ3 4 ɶ-ȒƭH

GHE3ɶ$HHͶoumlɯƯ3ɣȹʰƾ3ʢ 25KĈG2008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlɯaRZn1currenƦHGɣȹʰƾ412MWh17oMWhͿ-G (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m4ƀ|b3Ouml 80-K˺GaRZnKɥGmZ1GȤ

ƯDz3Ͷ4ˊ1ƎƅOgraveŋʢ1DFK˺Gegrave3ĔTHORNKƎƅOgraveŋʢ1Ʒ FͶ

3ƯDzʿ43ļKɷDžeumlɥG-0Ʒ1ťGeumlɊ93ǓaeligǓƱ4szligOumlȖʿ3Ƴ˴

ʻyacutemacrEHG mZ3ɡƦɱ0aRZn4100Ouml-K˺GaRZn-Gż3aRZ

n-4Ouml1DG˺3otildeĜʢ 800)GͶoumlɯaRZn1ťGOgraveTHORNĮĔǴĖTHORNHė˃034 15ƀsup2atilde-G

2008 ƀƄ3ƎƅOgraveŋʢ3eumlő4ʢ 5ͼ-H4 5 ƀijŚHGͶoumlɯaRZn4reg3ƷȗɱbrvbarȐȣȵuumlƟ˟0HGampˊ1eumlőfrac120)GͶoumlɯaRZ

n3bZ˞įKʚɡ-Gegrave0ưȠGEͶ93Ʒ4bZfrac12˟0HG mZ1GǝˠaRZn3ľĜʣɤɞ4ż 9Έ11-G3amp 5~73bZ

Nė˃10G3EA1983ƀE 2002ƀ=-3mZ˯icircȇƉĕƊƯ3 OMX203bZNſĹ 72)amp3ȣͶoumlɯaRZn3bZȣɱfrac12JGĎȲ13 (Saabye 2003)

(f) s_N3N9A Ͷ30ĔTHORNɅ4NordPool źľK 3oumlłFIT Ə-3Egraveȉ˚ugrave-Gʬ˺

ǙbrvbarȐʿ3Ͷ3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢK 5ƀ=-ƇG-GĎȲ14HE3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢ4 Nord Pool3Yacuteəźľ1Ɇ ʴʫHG

(g) Q54Q1 mg4 Economy of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ1

ļ+A3-G

222 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para 2008 ƀ1mZ-ŐampȳaRZn40HA˩ɩG4ƈˬȠ1GȳQ

OoyMɯ4ˊ1Ǖƃ3˴ėKƖEHG10G3˴ė4THORNǸʋKEHG

A3-szligːǨ 50000Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml kWhampF3THORNǸ1ťǰfrac12Egraveȉ3A31˴ė

ĎȲ13 Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark ĎȲ14 10ƀijŚEgraveȉKNjAEligGǝˠ3ɯAɰľG

21

aeligHG10GHornz Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand I amp II4THORNǸʋKʪśɠampaRZn-GAnholt3ǝȳQOoyM3THORNǸǴ4 2010ƀ 6DZ1ʨpoundG$3ˬOtildeş4 400 MW-2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-1KŐG10G UoN13ǞƉĎȲ15QOoyMA˴ėHGUoNǞƉQOoyM3ˬʹlaquo

ƖEHH5Ͷ1Aĝ PdlOz[ɥHG10Gɠķ=-1 2 3UoNǞƉ3QOoyMƈˬHG

(b) ccedil-1 mZ1GȳQOoyMɯbrvbarȐʿ3Ʒ]bn4˴ėiacute3THORNǸʋKʪampʢ 200 MW3

ņˠȕQOoyM1ťʢ 2700Έ3000kW3753Έ4170okWͿ-G ȳQOoyMKĴatilde3oumlʡʭȳŃĶˬOtilde1ʡGamp3]bn4mZ-4Ĵƺ

GampaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷʱͳŪ00)GɢĿƐ˰Egravebrvbarntilde3ȷƂĸ˰Egrave3]

bnAĴƺG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳQOoyM3ʰƾ4ʭ˩mgEHF=ampȳQOoyMɥʪǬʳ

ƞthornKƭGamp1ʄśƟmZ3ņˠȕȳQOoyM3ɣȹʰƾ4ĸ

Ļ3ɛȯ1DF 18MWh25oMWhͿE 20MWh28oMWhͿ=-G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mZ3ņˠȕQOoyM3˺4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ȪʙǴszligiquest1ɀ)˖JH

GsmOjZƷ˖E3OgraveTHORN˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM1eumlɥHGraquoH4

aRZn93˺Ə-˖JHGJ-40Ϳ˴ ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4ż 50ƍ3Ƿȣɞ-˺HG mZ3oumlmiddotʇ3Ƿ]bn4ʢ 112ͼ Ouml]bn4 4555˩ʙHG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) s_N3N9A ˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml3ijŚEgraveȉKĖĕ)

GijŚEgraveȉ4THORNǸdb-ȪŚHGTHORNǸEgraveȉ4˺ǙHampƿȔ-40szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ĔTHORN Nord PooloumlĕƊ-3ł-ƖEHampƔ1ȪŚHGHorns Rev II3ˑǸEgraveȉ4 0069kWh0096okWhͿRoslashdsand II4 0085kWh0118o kWhͿ-GźľEgraveȉ1ťGEgraveȉ˚ugrave4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿTHORNǸEgraveȉ1Ɯ NjAEligGźľEgraveȉTHORNǸEgraveȉDFľĜQOoyM

Eʡʭɥʿ1ŸͳKǓƱJ250E0 ˴ėiacute-0G4UoN13ǞƉ3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 22000 Ǩ1G

=- 0034kWh0047okWhͿD7Ͷeumlɥ-Greg3˚ugraveKĖĕG

(f) Q54Q1 Horns Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand II3ƈˬ]bnʱͳ1Gmg4eumlɥė˃0agraveɱƥĽmZ3ȳ

QOoyMɯ3ŦŞD7ȳQOoyMƯDzʿ0E71ȳQOoyM3˺

ʿ93ˁĕF˺ȆE1THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙEƖampA3-G

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacute3ȑ˞-G

ĎȲ15 UoN13aRZn4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3THORNǸʋKʪ1˖JHGȳƈˬaRZnŚ

ʻHG3 23QOoyM1divide13ȳɯƯUoNɧ˻db1D)ƈˬHG

22

Ugrave 2-5 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ16

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ17 ȳ

2008ƀĎȲ18 ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 23 23 23 Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 3 91 90 ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2700 4300 3865

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 25 25 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1250 2844 3000

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash (1738) (3953) (4170) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 12 (17) 20 (28) 18 (25) $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 3 (4) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆ Economics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010

Ugrave 2-6 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 50 55 45 Ƿeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 110 112 112 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 80 45 26 Ƿ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 20 66 74

WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 52 88 95 Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 13 10 13 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 25 25 25

FXn $US 139 139 139 FXn DKK ndashndashndash 7353 ndashndashndash 7353

ǛΆEconomics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aeligIacuteɥļ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ

Ugrave 2-7 NDQ+uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 447 (621) 28 (39) 447 (621) źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 37 (51) 70 (97) 85 (118) FITǕʘǴ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 22000 50000 50000 ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

LVRT ˮȲ 6ĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ǛΆNielsen et al 2010 Danish Energy Agency 2008 Danish Energy Agency 2009 ĎȲ16 2007ƀ14mZ-ǝamp1ƈˬHampͶ40)amp ĎȲ17 2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ȳ1Ͷ4ƈˬH0)ampȳQOoyM 3ƈˬG4˩ɩȠ1)amp

$3( 24Ǖƃ3˴ė˩ɩ1ļ+A3-ȟF64UoN13aRZn-)ampHorns Rev II3ǰʨɱ0Ʒ3ȪŚ4 2007ƀ10Hampamp3ǘŒ4 Horns Rev II3LJŚ]bn1ļ+GRoslashdsand II3ƷȪŚ4 2008ƀ10H$Hĝƀ3]bn3Ȉƻ0)G

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23

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24

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25

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26

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2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

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rOtildemiddot

Danish Wind Industry Association httpwindpowerorgenknowledgestatisticsthe_danish_markethtml September 2010 (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)

Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2007 2008 (Danish Energy Agency 2008) Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2008 2009 (Danish Energy Agency 2009)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Ministry of Climate and Energy National handlingsplan for vedvarende energi i Danmark 2010 (In English National Action

ĎȲ21 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampĔɲʱͳͶoumlɯǕʘͽPdlO

zD7yacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜAG

27

Plan for RE in Denmark) (Kemin 2010)

Nielsen et al Economy of Wind Turbines 2010 EUDP (Nielsen et al 2010) (Original title Vindmoslashllers Oslashkonomi)

Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark (Saabye 2003)

28

Aring 3Auml lt8

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ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

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29

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312 s_CcedilN3N9A

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30

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ʰƾ4 2007ƀ1 4571kW635okWͿ-2008ƀ4 4633kW644okWͿ-)amp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m1LǷɞ4 30Oumlɞ4 70)ampźɨǻ3đdivide4ƦŚ0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ

Oumleumlɲɞ4$HH 9555-)ampUacuteɱ0 FIT 1D)ʡʭ93NZdbIgrave˯HF=amp FITE3ŚͳǓƱAIgrave˯HGampĔTHORN3bZ˰Egravefrac120F$3ʫȁeumlAfrac120)G

31

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ĔTHORN4SrY3 FITD7GǛEƖEHG2007ƀ1ƈˬHampaRZn3ĽŌ4 819

MWh11384 oMWhͿ-ļǷǛ4 518 MWh72 oMWhͿ-GaRZn^Pn31ļ+3ĽŌiacuteƄ4 183ƀɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 mg4 EEG (2004) DEWI Magazine Nos 32 (2008) and 34 (2009) D7 Deutsche WindGuard GmbH ZSW3

amp1Acircƭamp EEG(2008)3Ɔț1GʉŕɱĽġǮEƖampȰlaquoʌ3Oacute4 Destatis (2009)1ļ+

322 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

sup23ƥĽ42008ƀsup21ƈˬHGcurrenŚ3ȳQOoyM1ļ+A3-G

(a) BL0+para ȳaRZn1DFȳ1ˬʹampͶ 12ļ3ˬOtildeşEʦ˩- 60 MWKɯ-GƦŚ

G3aRZn^Pn4 Borkum1G East FrisianŴ3ʢ 40 kmȫĜ3āȷ1frac14ʹȦȻʢ 30 m-G3ȷųE3ȦȻ3ʪȽɱEacuteɲKƖGamp14Śȉaeligoumlʢ 5 MW3ȳͶƛ˞10G3^Pn3szligːǨ4 3700Ǩ10GcurrenƦHG

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3ȳQOoyMKEHampľƯ1D7ȻȦĻ1ƈˬGamp3Ʒ]bn4ɪ

ſĹDFA3230kW 4490okWͿ3]bn3atildeˮ4ͶļʅŃƯzʗ-Gʡʭ93ʡ4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿ3micro-GampaRZn3Ʒ]bn14ʡʭ93

ʡ]bn4Ġ=H0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳͶoumlɯ3ʰƾ43ʰƾDFA˒0)GȷųEHG-

ǷĵEȳ3Ͷ=-3əlaquoħ3]bn0GE1ʰƾ14atildeD7ń3bgj

y3laquoacuteD7ƛ˞0ˡŤBIgraveʪȽʚɡBƴ˗ʚɡˌˋordf3ɴˡ)amp]bnĠ=HGoP

k3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ƀʰƾ4123kW171okWͿ10GcurrenƦHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȳ3aRZn3ƷŞ143ľĜDFAeumlɲɞƛ˞10Gȳ3Ƿeumlɲɞ12ͿA

Oumleumlɲɞ65ͿA3ľĜDFA0GOumlǷȣɞ7ť 3Ϳ4ƦŚHampaRZnȣŚ-Gś14aRZn3˺Ȓ1D)Ū)GAring5aRZnˇ

iquest-G4ub`n1DF˺G0Ϳė˃ƟAG

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ȳͶoumlɯ3ouml4EEG3 FIT1D)ƱƮHGƦŚampm1˧5EEG20041ļ+

otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 91 MWh127 oMWhļǷǛ4 619 MWh860 oMWhͿ-G3ampotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4ȷųE3aRZn^Pn30E71ȦȻ1ļ+ 145 ƀǓƱJHG10G

(f) Q54Q1 mg4 EEG(2004)D7 Deutsche WindGuard GmbH ZSW3amp1Acircƭamp EEG(2008) Ɔț1Gʉŕ

ɱĽġǮ1ļ+

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 3-354sup21G LCOEccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacuteK˘

32

Ugrave 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 2 2 NA 5 Ͷļǘ ļ 5 5 NA 12 ɯ szligːǨ 2260 2260 NA 3700

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA 20 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1259 (1750) 1373 (1908) NA 3230 (4490)

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 4571 (635) 4633 (644) NA 123 (171) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 149 (207) 152 (211) NA ndashndashndash $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

Ugrave 3-4 lt8uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 55 55 NA 65

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 95 95 NA 120 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 70 70 NA 70

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 30 30 NA 30 WACC ͼ 56 56 NA 68

Ǵ ƀ 13 13 NA 15 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 298 298 NA 298

FXn $US 139 139 NA 139

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard Destatis

Ugrave 3-5 lt8uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 79 (110) 78 (108) NA 84 (117) FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA 20

ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ

ƀ NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 16 16 NA 16 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

323 lt8oumlRBL0+yuml2008ĀrmicroQ1-1plusmnecirc

x 3-2EoPk3 LCOE85MWh 118oMWhͿǷĽġǮ-Yacute1ampđɔbDFA˒ccedilG$3ɡɦKsup21IJʆG

33

x 3-2 lt8uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup323

324 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) BL0+dj LCOE 3KAampEG34aRZn3śʷ-GʾEHGđɔb3ş

4ƀszligːǨ 2630ǨoPk3ļǷaRZn3szligːǨ4ƀ 2260Ǩ$HDFA4G1frac12

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4 1373 kW1908o kWͿ-đɔbDFA 76

kW106okWͿfrac12)ampLCOE1˧5H4ʢ 3MWh4oMWhͿȿ1ɸƎG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAʢ 7MWh10oMWhͿH

4ŚǴɏȏ3śǟQOoyMũˠȕ01DGcurrenOtildeĦ3Igraveʚ]bn3Ǥ)ampɡɦ1DG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 oPk3aRZnđɔb3Ÿɮ4ʢ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-H4˺Ȓ

31įG

(e) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4ƦŚ0

325 s_F(=2E

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯ14EEG1ļ+ FITɥHGoPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn EEG2004G4 EEG20093-ƲJHGF$Hsup2ń3ĔTHORN4˟=H0E1oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎGamp3reg3PdlOzKŨTHORNG4ƧIJHE$3currenƦA0

ĎȲ23 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4ĭǂcopyTHORN3ampđɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3

Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

34

x 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup324

326 aringmH7B

x 3-31ʆampD15MWh7oMWhͿ3yacuteYjɣ FH4szligːǨʰƾ3Ÿɮ1DGA3-G

33

-LoPk3QOoyM3Aring4Śȉaeligouml 2MW3Ͷ 5ļ-ȒƭHGaRZn3szligːǨ42260ǨƦŚG3m3ƦŚ1ļ+LCOE485MWh118oMWhͿLJŚHampNjAEligHamp FIT1DFaRZnɯǨȐʿ3yacuteYjampFʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ10GǛ3Oacute4 EEG-ˠŚHG

Ugrave 3-6 lt8Iumlsectpsup325

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

85 (118) NA 135

(188) ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

79 (110) NA 84

(117)

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

5 (7) NA 46

(64)

rOtildemiddot

BMU Leitszenarion 2009 ndash Bundesministerium fuumlr Umwelt Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit Langfristszenarien und Strategien fuumlr den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland ndash Leitszenario 2009 (2009)

Destatis Statistisches Bundesamt wwwdestatisde (last access December 2009) ĎȲ24 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAG ĎȲ25 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

35

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 32 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122007 (2008)

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 34 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122008 (2009)

Deutsche WindGuard Deutsche WindGuard GmbH on behalf o Zentrum fuumlr Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Wuumlrttemberg (ZSW) Vorbereitung und Begleitung bei der Erstellung eines Erfahrungsberichtes gemaumlszlig sect 20 EEG (2008)

EEG 2004 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich (2004)

EEG 2009 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich und zur Aumlnderung damit zusammenhaumlngender Vorschriften (2008)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

36

Aring 4Auml JN6

41 JN6uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

411 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬʹş42000ƀ3 447 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 2121 MW1ŀdivide3( 228 MWȳͶoumlɯ3ş0)GͶoumlɯ1DGƀ3ɯouml42000ƀ3 08 TWhE 2008ƀ3 43 TWh1ŀdivideGǞ2008ƀ3Uh3ʱȸouml4 119 TWh-)ampͶoumlɯ3ʁǴɶȔ42008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 2000 MWdivideG-G3ɶȔ3ƭ1DFˬʹȽgtG4ƈˬ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʱş4ʢ 4000 MW10G2009ƀ14950 MW3ȳͶoumlɯ3THORNǸŐHGȳͶoumlɯ3ɶȔOacute42020 ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 6000 MW 1G-Graquo EU 3aumlɣė˃SrYƿplusmn3ʻyacuteKɄGamp34 2020ƀ=-3ɶȔOacute45178 MW-G x 4-1 D7Ugrave 4-1 4-2 4D7ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71ěƀƄ3

ʁǴɱD7ǴɱɶȔOacute3currenɂ-Gszlig3şmg4ěƀǶ3mg-Gɏ1ɫƧ-GU

h4ǠœͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ14ɶȔOacuteKŚ0

x 4-1 JN6uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 and Rijksoverheid 2010

2000ƀ3ƀŨTHORNş4ĝƀǶ3ʦʏˬOtildeşĝ ş1ˬŚHampUgrave 4-21ʆȜģƀŨTHORNş4

ǑĐampͶoumlɯaRZn3ȜģˬOtildeşKĠL-GUgrave 4-2 1ʆamp2009 ƀE 2012 ƀ=- 2012ƀE 2020ƀ=-3ěǴ3ȜģƀŨTHORNş4ě3Ǵ3ſĹƀŨTHORNşKʆGsup23˘1ʆˬOtildeş4UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ1ļ+ˬOtildeş3currenɂ-GRijksoverheid 2010Ϳ

37

Ugrave 4-1 JN6IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0447 0485 0672 0905 1075 1224 1453 1641 1921 2727 6000

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0108 0228 0228 5178

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 andRijksoverheid 2010

Ugrave 4-2 JN6regwoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0038 0038 0187 0233 0170 0149 0229 0188 0280 0202 0409

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0 0 0 0619

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010Rijksoverheid 2010

412 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1ǝamp0 FIT ĽŌ˩ɩ-G SDE ˮȲ 7ŨTHORNHamp3 SDE bX3-Ͷoumlɯ3ś3ɯ]bn1˟ĜotildeŀĕEgraveȉoumlčEgraveȉ1divideǓƱJHGE1aumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗93Ʒ

1fynʌiacuteUacuteLjʹKɥGjnSDEotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3Ȃʩgtatilde-ȏ˪HG

42 JN6VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-Uh3deg˘ɱ0D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZnK˷ǥG

421 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh4 2003ƀ1szligːǨ|b-ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎG FITiacuteƄKŨTHORNamp2006ƀ=-4

szligːǨ 18000 Ǩ=-3aRZn1ťǰ- 10 ƀ FIT NjAEligHamp2008 ƀE3 FIT 1DGǓǎ4szligːǨ 2200 Ǩsup23aRZn1ť˖JHG10)ampſĹszligːǨ4ƀʢ2000Ǩ-$3ˊɱ0ʜı4ƀ 16002800Ǩ-G Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4FITǓǎ3˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZnKʆGĎȲ263

aRZn-4$3Pq`NlOz3ņĄǕɱ1ś˖ė˃0]bn3|KˬŚGdeg˘ɱ0

34 15 MW3ũˠȕQOoyM-ͶoumlɯaRZn3ņĄ 23 MW3ͶgɷƑ 90 mtz 60Έ80 mͿKAuml)G3ĸĻ-4iacuteˬEHFHE3ĸĻ-4tz 4060 m3 450800 kWͶˊɱ-G

(b) ccedil-1 aRZn3deg˘ɱ0Ʒ]bn4 1000kW1390okWͿE 1600kW2224okWͿ

=-Fˊ1Ʒ]bnszligːǨAŅ0)G

ˮȲ 7 SDE (stimulering duurzame energie) UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrYD7ɖAtildeʬ1GǓǎbX ĎȲ26 đɔaRZn134Ƿccedilǿ-ɥampđɔb13KƿA3-401ȲƧ

38

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3atildeˮ4ɯouml1D)ŃuumlGA3 9Έ12 kWh13Έ17 okWhͿż4ɥ

ŐE 5ƀ3^wbŋʢ1DGͿˬOtildeş1D)ŃuumlGA3 25kW35okWͿĸdegʡʭʡ]bnKĠͿ-GƔʿ3Oacute4aRZn1D)˒ɮ0Gś3ʰƾ4ƀ 23otildeĜ-ŀdivideGƦŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷKēǧampƀ|b3Ouml 80-˺GaR

ZnKɥG˚ugrave3NjAEligʿ-GͿǕƃ4ˇŹǷɞ 15D7Oumlɞ 6ͼKȜƦŚGoumlmiddotʇ4ub`n1ļ+˺K˖)GȰlaquoʌ4 255ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A 0ĔTHORNɅ4Yacuteəźľ-3Ǵŋʢ1DGoumlł-FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ1D)yacuteYj

K)Gyumlƽɱ0dividePdlOzfynSrYƷotildeƊ1D)NjAEligHG

3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4˹ʌė˃0ĔTHORNɅKƾamp0ɯbrvbarȐʿKĠ==0brvbarȐiquest1ɥHF1

43iacuteƄ1DFƯƖʌ 421ťeumlɲKƖGɯbrvbarȐʿAG

(f) Q54Q1 -ɥampmg4Uh3 FIT otildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3˩ʙ-ɥampđɔaRZn3agrave˘mg-

G (Lensink et al 2009 Cleijne et al 2010)

422 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh3ȳͶoumlaRZn-4ƈˬ˴ėKƖǰņ 50 m2ˠȕ3QOoyMKƈˬG-

Gƕ)deg˘ɱ0ȳaRZn3ˬOtildeş4 100Έ300 MW-Fʡʭ1NjAEligHGȜģɯouml4szligːǨ 3300Έ4000ǨɸƎ-G2008ƀ1 Prinses AmaliaQOoyMřƭamp1ʆmg14$3]bnȒ4ƛAĠ=H0

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4 2500Έ3500kW3475Έ4865okWͿ-G2008ƀ1řƭampaRZn4$

3ǘƀntilde1Famp˴ė3iacuteǼacute3ampȣɱũĺ3 V90ĺ 2 MWͶKɥG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ɥbrvbarȐʿ3ɥśʷ3Ū01DFʰƾ14ņ0ʄśƟœķGƀʰƾ4 90

kW125okWͿLJŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZn|b3˺ȒKɥF$3Ouml3otildeĜ4 50-GPrinces

AmaliaQOoyM3˺4aRZnȢ1˖)GWACC3ƦŚOacute4ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3Ƿ]bn3ordmOacute-H4 NuonShellƯDzG OWEZecirc3Ǡœ3ȳQOoyM1ɥEHampOacute-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A Ǡœ3QOoyM4Ǣ MEP˩ɩ1ļ+˚ugraveKĖF97MWh135oMWhͿ3ijŚ

FITĽŌKƖampfynPdlOz3˚ugraveɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 3mg4Ľɯ˘$3reg3agraveɱ1eumlɥ-GƥĽ1ļ+A3-ƥĽ1ŸɮGľĜ4ʆHamp

ƥĽ1ļ+m[-˚)G

39

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘1ěƀ1ƦŚampD7ȳͶoumlɯ3OacuteKʆ2007ƀ3aRZn]bn4 2008ƀǨ

ɏ3n1G-ʆGUgrave 4-5 3ouml3źľEgraveȉ14ĕƊ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnǴŋʢ3otildeƊɞĠ=HG

Ugrave 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 1 15 120 NA Ͷļǘ ļ 1 5 60 NA ɯ szligːǨ 2000 2200 3350 NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 15 NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1120 (1557) 1325 (1842) 3315 (4608) NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 40 (56) 24 (33) 92 (128) NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) NA NA NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

Ugrave 4-4 JN6uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 5 5 5 NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 15 15 12 NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 50 NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 50 NA WACC ͼ 60 60 79 NA

Ǵ ƀ 10 15 10 NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 255 255 255 NA

FXn $US 139 139 139 NA

Ugrave 4-5 JN6uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (81) 56 (78) 59 (82) NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 663 (922) 28 (39) 97 (135) NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ 37 20 44 NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

43 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ƛ˞0˴ėKƖG3ampogP0)

G

40

431 JN6uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 4-2 JN6rmicroQ1plusmnecircxpsup327

(b) BL0+dj Uh3Ͷ3ːɞ4ʢ 25-FszligːǨ 2200 ǨͿđɔb3 30DFAfrac12FIT 1DG

˚ugrave4szligːǨ 2200 ǨKGG4 SDE ˠiacute3˳ʧKʾƬ$HDFAfrac12ˬŚHGͿamp2200ǨDFAŅɯGamp3PdlOz4ŚHGE1˞0˞į4B4FͶȯ-G

432 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4Đ3ĪͲ1EcircGė˃ƟGszligːǨ 2200Ǩsup2KɯGPdl

Oz4ŚHGͶ3ˬ˩$HHBBɮ0)Fƕ)EgraveȉŘ0Gė˃Ɵ4ǃ-0

Aring5ĝ ɯȗKAuml)AgzoũľĜƷ]bnfrac12szligːǨŀdivideG

(b) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ0)Gį4ĸdeg3-Fƀʢ 10kW15okWͿ-G

(c) ccedilntildeacirciacute-113T-1 đɔbȣGUh3Ͷoumlɯ4Ȱlaquoʌȣɱfrac12 (255ͼ) eumlɏAGǑĐ]bn

4ʾƬ0

433 s_F(=2E

Uh3ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ43ʍ͵3PdlOziacuteƄ3ơƣKĖG-G$30A34 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ-2007 ƀ=-1HK˞ȨampaRZn1ťMEP ˮȲ 81DF 10 ƀijŚotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligH2008 ƀsup21HK˞ȨampaRZn3ľĜ4SDE 1DF 15 ƀŃuumlotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligHG3 FITiacuteƄ1divideaRZn3ľĜ4ǰņƷ]bn 600kW834okWͿ1ťƷ]bn3 443ʌdž3Ʒ˚ugrave (EIA) D7otildeƊɞ 13fynKeumlɥG

ĎȲ27 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ ˮȲ 8 MEP (Milieukwaliteit Elektriciteitsproductie) Uh3oumlɣɤ1GȰƓ

41

-G

x 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup328

434 aringmH7B

Uh3yacuteYj42007 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn1˧5Ugrave 4-6 đɔͿʢ ndash36 MWhndash50oMWhͿPpb3Oacute10)GH4Đ3MEP3 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3ˬ˩3Ș1DGA3-˚ugraveͳ3ļɵ0)ampoumlEgraveȉK 2Έ3 MWh3Έ4 oMWhͿfrac12ƦŚamp1DGoumlEgraveȉ 6~8 MWh 1ǤG1HŪ0AoumlEgraveȉ4ͶoumlaRZn4ż1ͺoumlɱ0A310)ampƔʮiacuteƄ-G SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ1ļ+ 2008 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn143ȘĕFHyacuteYj4 ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿBBPpb3Oacute10)GěʍaRZn3ɯ]bn3Ž4ndash3 DFA4G1ņɏ1ȲƧG3ampndash3MWh4oMWhͿPpb3Oacute4eKņĮGA3-40 ȳͶoumlɯ3b3yacuteY4Ɗʯ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-)ampH4ɷDžƖampyacuteƥ

Ľ1ļ+A3-40Princes AmaliaQOoyM3Ȫʙ1İɣ amp4ǥE-G

44

Uh4ŧǽ1A 2020ƀ1AD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Dzdz0ɶȔOacuteKŚGɠķ3 SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ4HKśɠGamp3ǰA˞0k-G43 Eacute3ccedilǿʫȁEUh3brvbarAring1GyacuteYj4ʹ˒-40JG ugraveKƖampɯouml4szligːǨ 2200Ǩ=-1iacuteHG3ǘOacute4Uh3Ͷȯ1ċampA3-G2200Ǩsup23ɯ1ťGPdlOz4ŚHFHAƷ]bnfrac123į-Gė˃ƟGʰƾ4ĸdeg3ampȣɱ

0)G

ĎȲ28 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

42

Ugrave 4-6 JN6Iumlsectpsup329

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

91 (126)

94 (131)

166 (231) NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

127 (177)

96 (133)

161 (224) NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash36 (-50)

ndash3 (-4)

5 (7) NA

rOtildemiddot

Cleijne JW SM Lensink and CJ Faasen (2010) SDE Wind op land met vollasturen en differentiatie [SDE wind onshore with full load hours and differentation] ECN-E--10-001 Petten January 2010

Lensink SM JW Cleijne M Mozaffarian AE Pfeiffer S L Luxembourg and GJ Stienstra (2009) Eindadvies basisbedragen 2010 [Final advice SDE premium base rates 2010] ECNKEMA ECN-E--09-058 Petten November 2009

Rijksoverheid (2010) Nationaal actieplan voor energie uit hernieuwbare bronnen Richtlijn 200928EG [National Renewable Energy Action Plan Directive 200928EG] Den Haag June 2010

Statistics Netherlands (2010) online databank httpstatlinecbsnl VoorburgHeerlen August 2010

ĎȲ29 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

43

Aring 5Auml 1CN

51 1CNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bP3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯŮ1G=ampɚŚ3 EU 3ɶȔ1ļ+ CO2ǃaeligethȿ3amp

1 2020 ƀ 2030 ƀ1ƦŚHGɶȔOacuteKʆE1ˠiacute3ȂʩgtK˷ǥGraquo$30Ȓƭ˞ʥK˟ɷordfȾoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3]bn3ƐKŪ0Gamp1ɠķ˖JHGͿ E1 2008ƀ1GbPźľ3deg˘ɱ0QOoyM3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) K˷ǥ$3sup3

ŚKregĴ1GͶoumlɯ3]bnȣG

511 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac12frac34laquo

2009ƀǶǨɏ-Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4 19149 MW1bP3oumlʡʭ1 3ɭɶ1ņ0Ʌ0)GbP3Ͷoumlɯɯ4 90ƀdegĄ51Ő=F2001ƀsup24ǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşƀſĹ-ʢ 1800MWdivideHampˠiacuteǔȜHamp 2004ƀ 2007ƀ14Ĵɟplusmn 4362004D7 6612006Ϳ3şņŽ1ŀdivideamp3ˠiacute3ǔȜ1DF$HKeumlɥampǝˠaRZn3ʑ(EumlHamp

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯouml42009ƀ3bP3SrYʱ˞3ʢ 14KĈG x 5-14ŅĴȣ3ťƀ-G 2008ƀ=-1bP1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3H=-3ʦʏˬOtildeş

ƀŨTHORNşKʆG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3mg4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3SrY˖uuml˩ɩNREAPͿ1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)2020ƀ3currenɂ4SrY˞3 20Kaumlɣė˃SrY- EU3ɶȔƭ1ğampǘOacute-G

x 5-1 1CNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

x 5-1 4bP-H=-1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşD7notƔˬʹHG˟=HGˬOtildeşKʆG=ampƀŨTHORNşKx 5-21ʆ2009ƀbPǕƃ4 2010ƀE 2012ƀ=-3ěƀ1ˬʹG MWşKiacuteGamp3otildeƎKŚG1amp=ampoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3ƐKȿ Gamp3˩ɩKnotƔ3Ȱplusmn1ʩgtL-ɯ˘ampszlig3aumlɣė˃SrY]aRr`3

Ĝ˩ş 6000 MW4ʱoumlĕƊ3 25KĈH4ʪȽĊȗ-4ɚ1]bn-GͿ

44

bP1GȳͶoumlɯ30Ł4ņȍ0-F3ampȮų3ȦȻ 50m 10)Gƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ-4ͳ0ļʅ˞0F$3ampHE3aRZn3ś˖ė˃Ɵ4iacute

HGE1aacuteʡɏ-4ȺĀŇɓWbļĸ1ˬʹHG]uPo^PZWbgw3

ɯ1DG~nrjZœķGampNZdbşEHampA310)G

Ugrave 5-1 1CNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

16 22 34 49 62 85 100 116 151 167 23 35

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 5-2 1CNoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

16 06 12 15 13 23 15 16 35 16 15 14

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

512 s_CcedilN3N9A

Ȱɱ1currenƦHGEacuteɲKĖGamp14ͶoumlɯaRZnKɚecirc3iacuteƄ131ccedil͵Gƛ˞G

ʟĴ3ȉ˴ŚiacuteƄĝȓͿH4ͶoumlɯaRZnʡʭ1UacuteYacuteDžʯ-GũłbrvbarȐʿAacuteocircouml

KĕE250E0Ϳamp=ampEgraveȉˠiacuteHGamp-GĴɟƿplusmn 6612007-˘ǥHampD1Ͷoumlɯ3ǓƱbX14ˠiacuteǛbXźľĎɡ3 2G

ˠiacuteǛbX4QOoyMƯDzʿƸampǴ1GͶoumlɯ3ʻyacuteɱ0ijŚĕƊ

Egraveȉ-Gx 5-23ǘOacuteͿ ǰʨɱ0Egraveȉ 1Ǩ3ɪEgraveȉoumlPdlOz1ļ+oumlčźľEgraveȉ3ʩgtĜJ-Ȫ=GI3źľĎɡ4ĽŌ13AĤ5HGƕ)ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿĖĕGǛ4

Egraveȉ1ŷęHG10F3Egraveȉż1frac12ľĜ4ǰfrac12Egraveȉsup2-H5ˬ

EHGx 5-34ˠiacuteǛ3đɔOacuteKʆG

x 5-2 Ucircgntilde1)QEAcirc ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

45

ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ4ntildeǡźľ3ɯ˩ɩKNjaeligcurrenɂKɥ3˩ɩś3ɯouml3currenɂ˶ŸKȿE

D1GE1==0ĸĻ1ƈˬHampQOoyMɸuml1˚Ugrave-˶ŸKŪ0Gamp

1==0aRZn[ĀHG3`bl1DFN``bl3ȴɥ

ʬ˺ǙKǰĀG-$3]bn34ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿǓƱ)G2008 ƀ4ʢ 15 MWh205oMWhͿ-)amp ˫3Oacute4Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120071D)ȸʿEgraveȉƿǘ (CPI) 1ļ+ǭǝH2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝ

ɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp x 5-34Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073ǟ˖sup2Ɣ3 FITǛiacuteƄ3ŃuumlKʆampA3-G2007ƀĴɟƿplusmn 6612007

1DF CPI1Ȯ) FITǔ˨HG10F2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp2010ƀ14ǭǝHampOacutePpb10FntildeƀKĮ)ampH4 CPIe1)ampamp-G bP3ʡʭɥʿ-G Red Electrica de Espantildea (REE) 1DH5ˬ Otildeş3 94ijŚEgraveȉĕU`

1D)ɥHGampčoumlźľEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ƐH0x 5-4Ϳ

x 5-3 ~BINcentIcircceyuml~[umlāntildeĀ ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

x 5-4 dividejo~uumljfrac14divideethyuml2008Ā ǛΆ Spanish TSO (REE)

Ͷoumlɯ3ņccedil4čźľ-ɷDžłHGampĽ4Egraveȉ1ņŷęHŇɓWbEgraveȉȦouml

ɯ3ɛȯ0E71Ĵźľ1G CO2 Egraveȉ3Egraveȉ1ƐG3amp 2008 ƀ14ſǡEgraveȉ4 6443MWh8956oMWhͿ0F2007ƀ3 3935MWh5470oMWhͿK 64Į)ampH4ɠķ=-1˫HampEgraveȉ-ǰAͳ-G Ͷoumlɯ3źľĕƊEgraveȉKx 5-31oumlčEgraveȉKx 5-51ʆYacute1ampD1Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073brvbar

Aring-43Egraveȉ4E=-3ʜıatilde1GſǡoumlčEgraveȉ1ļ+EgraveȉĽŌ3Ĝ˩Oacute-G

46

x 5-5 dividejBQK[umllcedilyuml2003Ą2009Ā ǛΆOMEL and Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

52 1CN 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-2008 ƀ1GbP3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKHKreg3đdivideĴ1GͶoumlɯɯ3ěʍmȣG

521 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

ɚecirciquestiacute13`blKeumlɥGamp14bP3QOoyM3ˠȕ 50 MWK40E0ˬ ʹampQOoyM3ſĹˠȕ4ʢ 25 MW-˩ ʙQOoyM3ˬOtildeşK 2007ƀA 2008ƀA 30MWsup3ŚG Ğɶ3ɥǨ4Śȉaeligouml-ƀ 1700ǨE 2350Ǩ=-==-G2008ƀ3szligĴſĹ4 2085

ǨͿ=ampaRZn3đɔOacute4 2007ƀ- 2200Ǩ2008ƀ- 2150Ǩ-)amp bP-ɥEHGszlig3ʪȽm-4aRZn3ɥǴ4 20ƀGraquoH4Q

OoyM3śʷ4E0Ϳ2007ƀ 2008ƀ14aRZn3Py^PZK 20ƀG

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹˠȕ4 1985 kW-2007ƀ3 1621 kWEJ1ŀdivideamp3m-ȏ˪G34 2000 kW3Ͷ0J(3QOoyM-4 2 MW3Ͷ 15ļͿ-G

x 5-6 2008THORNOacuteuumlegrave2bszlig ǛΆ Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

47

(b) ccedil-1 ƀ3Ʒʱͳ0)amp34Zb III D7 IV ˮȲ 93ņĺͶoumlɯ˙ʹˬʹHampE-

FƎeacuteEĶʡʭ93ʡBěʍʌcurrenɂHampJ-40 $H1AJEƀ4ĎǺǛ]bn3frac121DFͶ3]bnȿŪG=ampǕĊȗˠiacute3

Ńǭ1DFͶ3˞Afrac12ampQOoyM93Ʒʱͳ1ĈGͶ3]bn4ʢ 70Έ73ͼ-G3]bn4ĎǺǛ3Egraveȉɠķ3[jo]o1Ɇ ampƛ˞0ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵ1šDž1EcircG

2007ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn14Ʒ]bn4 1233kW1714okWͿ2008ƀ14 1250kW1738okWͿLJŚHG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾAaeligoumlƶiacuteȒatildeoumlȸ3amp3oumlǛˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵŀamp1DFŀdivide

Gʰƾ4 2007ƀ 1910MWh2655oMWhͿ2008ƀ 1963MWh2729oMWhͿLJŚHG100ͼŃuumlͿHE3]bn4|3ŃuumlƟdegǯĦ3eumlɥė˃Ɵƛ˞HGɕʶƴ˗ʿBȗȋ˙ʹ)amp˞į1G Ͷoumlɯȗ3^Pc4ƼņGͶȯ3ǰAD^Pn4-1eumlɥHGampŚȉǨ4ȿŪ

G10G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȞĘɱ1bP-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯKbPĴatilde3˖3oumlD7ŘŚampȰɱȂ

ʩgt1ļ+aRZn3yacuteiquestiacute1D)˺amp$H1AJEȵuumlƟKȘamp˺iacute

Ƅ3amp13 2ƀ-ɛȯŃĀAgraveE3ƺIgrave1DGIgrave˯ƛ˞10)G ˺]bn42007ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ1ˬŚHG2007ƀ2008

ƀAǷOuml3ȣɞ4 2ť 8-G2008ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A źľ93ł1DGĔTHORN42007ƀ1 394MWh548oMWhͿ2008ƀ1 644oMWh895o

MWhͿ-)amp3ĔTHORN1ť2007ƀ1 348MWh483oMWhͿ2008ƀ14 215MWh299oMWhͿ˰EgraveHamp FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideHGFITǕʘǴ4(E3bA 20ƀ1ijŚHG

(f) Q54Q1 1ʆampmg4bPͶoumlɯąmiddot (AEE) D7 Intermoney śǟampʃʐ1ļ+A3-G

522 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

bP3ȳͶoumlɯSN4 62SN1ccedilotildeHHE3SN-4ͶoumlɯˠiacuteHGHE3SN1ťTHORNǸ˖JHG10G3śɱPq`NizK5currenɂHGQOo

yM3ˠȕ4ʢ 1000 MW-G

(b) ccedil-1 mg0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig mg0

ˮȲ 9 Zb III4sectʬ˵Ũɯȗ (DFIG) D7ccedilŚȉ3]ugKɥampͶZb IV4ĝǴɯȗD7y

Śȉ]ugE0GͶccedil͵HG3ccedil͵ǞȰ3˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

48

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mg0

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A mg0

(f) Q54Q1 mg0

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 5-25-54sup23 LCOEccedilǿ-ɥampm[3ntildeNjǼacuteKʆA3-G]bn3sup3Ś4szlig 2007

ƀ 2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZnK˘A3-2008ƀnǨ3-˘ʆG

Ugrave 5-3 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 30 30 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ 15 15 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ 2200 2150 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1233 (1714) 1250 (1738) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 191 (266) 196 (272) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA

Ugrave 5Ă4 1CNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 9 10 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 6 7 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 NA NA Ǵ ƀ 15 15 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 30 30 NA NA

FXn $ 139 139 NA NA

Ugrave 5-5 1CNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 53 (74) 54 (75) NA NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 34 (47) 35 (49) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ

ͼ 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 20 20 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 36 (51) 37 (52) NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

49

523 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 5-7 1CNrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup330

(b) BL0+dj bP3ͶoumlɯaRZn4đɔbDFAˬOtildeeumlɥɞfrac12ͶȯbP3szligːǨ1Ɛ

GampbP3 LCOE4đɔb3 LCOEDFA 18MWh25oMWhͿ0)Gđɔb3ſĹːǨLJŚ 2680Ǩ-G31ťbP4 2150Ǩ0)G szligːǨ4bP3 LCOE đɔb3 LCOE 3Ÿɮ13ǰA˞0Ńǘ-GͶȯ1divide

ʰƾAđɔbKĮ)FH14ĸdegD7ĸĻBˇȬiquest˞ȨGeumlɲɞAĠ=HG LCOE33˷ǥ0Gʖ 33˞į4˺]bn-F3ͳ4aRZn3WACCD7ǰʨɱ

1ě3Ʒ1˞ȨHGƷĔɲɞ (ROI) KŀdivideG

(c) ccedil-1 bP3Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4ʢ 1250kW1738okWͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 200

kW278 okWͿŘbP-4Ʒ]bnfrac12ampLCOE 4 10 MWh14 oMWhͿfrac120G ǑĐ]bn4QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘʨpoundamp3ɯˬOtilde3˥iquest]bnKĠampͳ-ʱƷ]

bn3ʢ 3ͼKĈG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bP3brvbarAring1Gyacuteɛȯ1ˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlɲɞ4đɔbDFA0)G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig bP-4ʰƾđɔbDFA0)GbP3ʰƾʱͳ14ʌĸdeg

ʚɡ]bnKĠamp3ŃuumlĠ=HGnotƔ3ʪethȿoumlˇŞȸǛ3ǤˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ

˜Ɵ3=F1DFʰƾAŀdivideG˟gt-G ſĹbP3ʰƾ4ʢ 196MWh272oMWhͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 7

MWh10oMWhͿ

ĎȲ30 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

50

524 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

Yacute1ampD1bP14 FIT iacuteƄͶoumlɯ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄͿźľiacuteƄźľEgraveȉͶoumlɯ3ĽŌͿ 23ǓƱiquestʡG2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ3ʢ 91ͼKźľiacuteƄ1DFłampH4ɯȐʿDFŅ3ĔTHORNKƖEHGamp-G x 5-8 4ĔTHORN3ŃǘȥǛͿͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOz3ŃǘbP1GźľiacuteƄ

3ĽŌͿKȣampA3-G

x 5Q-8 1CNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup331

525 aringmH7B

bP3mccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿ-G3EſĹbP3ͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOzEaRZnɯ

3yacute˞acuteKɄamp-G3ăccedil0Xj`yKƖGJG

53 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 5Ă6 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+psup332

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

76 (106)

83 (115) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

87 (121)

86 (120) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash11 (ndash15)

ndash3 (ndash4) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2009) ldquoEoacutelica 09 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Julio 2009)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileANUARIO20COMPLETO5B15Dpdf

ĎȲ31 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ32 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

51

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2008) ldquoEoacutelica 08 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Junio 2008)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee- publicaAEE_anuario_ingles08pdf

AEE ndash Intermoney (2006) ldquoEstudio de costes del sector eoacutelico Realizado por Intermoney para AEE (2006)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee-publica060612-Gen-EolicaEsp- PRALpdf

Comisioacuten Nacional de la Energiacutea (CNE) wwwcnees

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Red Eleacutectrica de Espantildea (REE) Spanish TSO wwwreees Royal Decree 6612007 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacionRD_661-2007-REpdf Royal Decree 4362004 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacion(36)RD436_2004pdf Spanish Market Operator (OMEL) wwwomeles

52

Aring 6Auml 1$QN

61 1$QNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bQRm3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙ0E71 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿK˷ǥG

611 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş42004ƀ1 474 MW)amp3 2008ƀǶ14 937 MW0)Gx 6-1ͿbQRmĆ3ȳQOoyM3ˬOtildeş4 2007ƀ14 110 MW-)amp=ampqN`N133Ƀ-3ɯAEHG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯcurrenɂ4EUdivideɳĴ3ěĴaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 3mg1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)

x 6-1 1$QNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_Uacuteuacute

ǛΆVinkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 and European Commission 2010 Ugrave 6-14bQRm1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=amp

Ugrave 6-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 6-1 1$QNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

220 220 272 322 381 429 470 560 698 951 2065 4365

ȳ 10 20 23 23 23 23 23 23 133 133 150 182

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

53

Ugrave 6-2 1$QNoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

ndashndashndash 05 51 50 59 48 41 90 138 253 278 288

ȳ ndashndashndash 10 25 0 0 0 0 0 110 0 4 4

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

612 s_CcedilN3N9A

bQRm-4aumlɣė˃SrY1DGɯ3ǓǎʘĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ (TGC) KŨTHORNG$3ɶɱ42016ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 17 TWh1ŀB-G3ɶȔOacuteK2020ƀ=-1ė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 25 TWh1GE1OacuteGampɠķ3iacuteƄ3ǔȜȏ˪HG=ampbQRmsQR3aacute`bl3Ȓʝ1ğampordfȾ˖J

HG 2008 ƀ=-4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ˖ɢĿĽŌ13AĤ5HGijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) Ͷoumlɯ

1ɥHamp3ɢĿĽŌ134ȳͶoumlɯ14 2009ƀ=-eumlɥė˃-)amp=amp 2003ƀ1vPjnaRZn3Ǔǎ˩ɩŐHampȳͶoumlɯţaringȥNtildeȎȀĸŻ-3Ͷoumlɯ)

ampˉģȻ˟0HampaRZn12008 ƀE 2012 ƀ=-3Ǵ1 3710 5160 oͿ3currenʙotildeƎEHG

2006 ƀʈǕƃ3ɢĿƐccedilǿ1Gˠiuml0E71ǝˠͶoumlɯaRZn3˴ėdbʞɬĀH25 MW=-3QOoyM4ˇȬiquest1ŭaeligH5ˬʹ-G0)amp ͶɅ3eumlɥ1GƥĽKƁcedilGampbQRmǕƃ3Ũ3Ͷoumlɯ3eumlɥ1GĴatilder

jnZĎȲ33ȒʝHamp3rjnZ1DFͶoumlɯ3˩ɩʘŚD7˴ŚʋuacuteOslashoumlbrvbarȐ3ɯ

Ůʰƾʚɡ1Gʀ˾KȻbQRm3ͶoumlɯɯaRZnKEumlH

G E1Ͷoumlɯ3]mOrgKɥɯbrvbarȐʿEcircƎŬ0E71ĸUcircĸĻĴ3ě|1

GEcircʿ3ordfȵEumlKIJ)G

62 1$QNVUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

621 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bQRm-43aRZn3szligːǨ4 2600Έ3050 ǨĽġHGżbQR

m3Ͷoumlɯj1ʆHGszligːǨ4ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿNjaeligampǘŒKĮ)

G3amp˩ʙ-4bQRm3aRZn3ǰʨɱ0ͶoumlɯǨKĽġHampʜı3 2600ǨͿG

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3aRZn42008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZn3]bnD7ɯoumlēǧ

Hampdeg˘ɱaRZnŚʻHamp Ƿ]bn4ampF 12171915kW1692Έ2662okWͿ=-Fmccedilǿ-4 1591kW2212okWͿsup3Śamp

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3ijŚccedil4ſĹ 0004 kW0006 okWͿŃuumlccedil4ʢ 11 MWh15 o

ĎȲ33 httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse đɔ

54

MWhͿLJŚG3Ńuuml4 7 MWh10 oMWhͿE 24 MWh33 oMWhͿ=-FvPjnaRZn1Gʰƾ4ż1ŃuumlņɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒

ɮ0)G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 Ugrave 6-51ʆD1mccedilǿ-4OumleumlőKƷŞżĽġG 5˟L-GͶoumlɯ1Ʒ

GparaȐ3middot˩Ľġ3ccedilǿ-420ͼƍOuml]bnʆHGbQRm3paraȐccedilǿEŨaeligampƛ˞0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞʫ7macrOumleumlőɞK 5LJŚampľĜͶoumlɯ3]bnKũ˰EgraveG10F20

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ǵŋʢ1DGźľ93oumlłŨTHORNHGĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ

23ĔTHORN3ȵH1D)KƖG(E3ĔTHORNɅAʄśƟż12008ƀ=-FITĽŌiacuteƄAɥHFͶoumlɯaRZn4 2 MWh3 oMWhͿŪͳ3ĽŌKĖamp

(f) Q54Q1 LCOE˩ʙ3mg4˫3D0ɥǓǎ˩ɩ3ʫȁD7Ĵatilde3_3amp1bQRmSrY

Ŭ=ampmg)amp˜ǘ3ƥĽɅ1ļ+A3-GǑĐ]bn4 Svensk Vindenergi (2009) 3mgKAumlɥampbQRm3Ͷoumlɯ˩ɩ1Gʭ˩Oacute4bQRmSrYŬȢƀɯ˘

GĽġǮ ES20103 ldquoVindkraft statistic 2009 (Wind power statistics 2009)rdquoD7 Vindkraft Statistik 20081ļ+G2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯǨ4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ3mgKAumlɥGE1Ͷoumlɯ3ɯȐbrvbarʿEʆmg3NjAEligKĖamp=ampEcircGotildeƊɞKǥE1Gampmiddot˩ǛKđɔampE14˚Ǜ O2 0E71 AriseȇƉźľ3ŨTHORN1GbrvbarȐaeligɘəEŦŞ3Ƨ˟KƊɥamp

622 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

2008ƀǨɏ-ŨTHORNHampbQRmǰņ3ȳaRZn4Lillgrunden3 11 MW3aRZn-)amp3aRZn4 Vattenfall 2004ƀ1Ɗʮ2007ƀ1ʡʭ1ʡHampLillgrundenaRZn-4 Siemens3 23 MWͶ MKII 48ļAumlɥHG$3( 13ļ4 2004ƀsup2ntilde1ʡʭ1ʡHGbQRm3ǰǝaRZn4 3 MW3Ͷ 10ļKOtildeamp GaumlsslingegrundaRZn-H4 VaumlnernɃ3Ģ 7Έ13m1ļʅKˬʹampqN`N133aRZn-G

Ugrave 6-3 LillgrundenBL0+Z

Lillgrundenmg Ά ļɆȷDF 115 m gɷƑΆ 924 m ʱʏΆ 6734 m2 iacuteƗǞȰΆ ėŃxjiD7ėŃƄ gƄΆ 6Έ16 rpm ǰņYacuteʔƄΆ 280 kmh gΆ 60 t pdΆ 82 t gΆ 110 t LJŚƀɯoumlΆ 6875500 kWh ˬOtildeeumlɥɞΆ 35ͼ ſĹͶΆ 85 ms

55

Ugrave 6-4 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 235 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 41 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2600 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1591 (2212) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 0004 (0006) NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 16 (222) NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 6-5 1$QNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 12 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 87 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 13 NA NA WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 47 NA NA

Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 28 NA NA

FXn SEKeuro ndashndashndash 942 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

Ugrave 6-6 1$QNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 50 (70) NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 25 (35) NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 2 (3) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 1 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

623 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

x 6-2 1ʆD1bQRm3 LCOE 4đɔbDFʢ 1 MWh1 oMWhͿfrac120)G

56

x 6-2 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1psup334

(a) BL0+dj bQRm3szligːǨ4đɔbDFAH4ͶoumlɯaRZn1eumlɥ-Gĵĸʏ

^[ampreg3Țŵ˽ĴDFAņampƎɓ3-G

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3Ʒ4oumlɯaRZnTGC `bl2001 ƀEŨTHORNͿ0E71Ǡœ3 NordPool

ʡʭ1995ƀEoumlĕƊͿ3amp1đɔbDFABB0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig đɔbbQRm3ʰƾ3Ÿɮ4ǰũ3A3-H4^1DGė˃Ɵʹ˒

-40

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bQRm3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12H4bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ93Ʒ1

GbZ3|frac12E-FbQRm3Ͷoumlɯɯ1GʪEƎɓ3˧G

x 6-3 1$QNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup335

ĎȲ34 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

57

624 s_CcedilN3N9A

ĔTHORN4 1Ϳoumlł1DGĔTHORN2Ϳ[˯Ǯł1DGĔTHORN3ͿFITE3Ūͳ3ĔTHORN2009ƀ1ƆțͿ3 3-ȒƭHG ĔTHORN4źľE33ȵH-GampʄśƟņ0b-4ȥǛ4 50 MWh

70 oMWhͿ-ŘŚG˟0H[˯ǮEgraveȉ4ʢ 25 MWh35 oMWhͿ)amp2009ƀ1OacuteHamp

625 aringmH7B ſĹɱ0aRZn14ouml3źľEgraveȉ TGCiacuteƄ3˚UgraveKʩgtĜJG-ăccedil1]bnK

-GD-G

Ugrave 6-7 1$QNIumlsectpsup336

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 75

(104) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash8

(ndash11) NA NA

63 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 6-7 1ʆampD1bQRm3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˇŹǷ]bnD7Ouml]bnfrac12amp1ǷdivideſĹĎEgrave (WACC) ȣɱfrac120)GD-GaRZn3AEligʬ4Ouml1DGǷ˺1DGA3-macr3˺Ǵ4 20ƀ-G$HDFAmacrǴʁľĜA$EG˕Ǵ3ʨpoundǨ1ʸFHG bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ4ȞĘ=ampƀƞ1ƭG2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrY

ɅK 25 TWh1GɶȔKƭGamp14ͶoumlɯKE1ɯŮƛ˞G

rOtildemiddot

Dagens Industri wwwdise 2010-03-16 Storm kring vindkraftsbolag

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

E24 wwwe24se 2010-03-16 Vindkraftsbolagen anklagas foumlr glaumldjekalkyler Nationellt naumltverk foumlr vindbruk (national network for winduse) httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse

Svensk Vindenergi 2009 Vindkraftverk ndash kartlaumlggning av aktiviteter och kostnader vid nedmontering aringterstaumlllande av plats och aringtervinning

Vinkraftstatistik 2009 ES 20103 2010 Swedish Energy Agency available at

ĎȲ35 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ36 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

58

httpwwwenergimyndighetenseGlobalPressPressmeddelandenVindkraftsstatistik202009p df

Vindkraftstatistik 2007 ES 20082 2008 Swedish Energy Agency available at httpwwwenergimyndighetenseen

59

Aring 7Auml 11

71 11uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bPb3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙacirciquestɱ14 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿ3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1GbPb4atildeĴ-GampȳaRZn4œķ0ǪˤIgrave3ampɃȭĸĻ4ɠķͶoumlɯ^PnEńHG

711 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş41996ƀ3 2 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 14 MW1ŀdivideampͶoumlɯ1DGƀɯouml4 2000ƀ3 18 GWhE 2008ƀ3 2020 GWh1ŀdivideampH1ť 2008ƀ3ʱ˞ouml4 587 TWh-Gɠķ˩ɩEHGaRZn1D)2012ƀ14 65 MW3ɯė˃10GLJŚHGǕƃ3SrYǕʘ-4 2030ƀ1 44 MWKɯGɶȔKljG

x 7-1 11uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

Ugrave 7-14bPb1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 7-24ĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-1 11IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

28 28 451 455 456 866 116 116 116 136 176 65 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

60

Ugrave 7-2 11oacute_ethyumlMWĀ

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

28 00 170 065 001 350 290 002 000 200 400 150 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

712 s_CcedilN3N9A

bPb-4 2008 ƀ1oPkĝȓ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄFITͿKŨTHORNamp3`bl4LJŚHG LCOEKamp3A3-GFIT 1Ġ=HG34oumlźľEgraveȉ[ouml3Oacute-GͶoumlɯ14bPb3 FIT4 110MWh153oMWhͿΈ130MWh181oMWhͿ1ijŚHG

72 11VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

721 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZn42 MW3Ͷ 6ļKOtildeamp Juraű˅Ȕ 1000Έ1200 mͿ3

QOoyM-GbPb1GͶoumlaRZn3L2 MW3ͶgɷƑ 82 mtzʢ 8 0mͿKɥG3ĸĻ-4NZdbiacuteHGamp1gɷƑg31ˬEHFŚȉaeligouml 800Έ1000 kWtz 40~60 m3ͶKeumlɥG

(b) ccedil-1 bPb1Gdeg˘ɱ0aRZn3ě3Ʒ]bn4ampF 1790 kW2488 kWͿ-G

Țŵ1GͶ93Ʒ]bn3otildeĜ4ſĹʢ 76bPb-4 55~6810)G34bPb3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn93NZdbďiacuteHGamp=ampbPb-4laquoacuteż1amp-G

3ampɯƯ3ʪȣɱ0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ14bPb-4śʷŪ0ampEWEA agrave˘ampʰƾ3ȣ1ļ+bPb3ʰƾK 31MWh43oMWhͿsup3Śamp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 sup23˘4bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥamp˺]bnKʆG

Ugrave 7-3 ccedilntildeacirciacute-1YacuteEgrave

źľeuml 5 ƛ˞0Ƿeumlɲɞ 7

Ƿ3otildeĜ 30 ˀɥƀǘ 20ƀ ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ 20ƀ

Py 0 Ǵ 20ƀ

ȰlaquoʌɞOECDͿ 21

61

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A bPb14aumlɣė˃SrYɯ3brvbarȐeumlɥ-Gɜʑ3ĔTHORN`bl 2ʍ͵G 64 FIT `bl-H4sup23]bn˩ʙ3ļɵ0GA3-3ȽKĖEHG34Ȧoumlɯ

10 MWsup2atildeͿňɖɯͶoumlɯuPUb0E71uPUbƆǺ-Gaumlɣė˃SrYɅ[vͿ1DGɯ1ɥė˃03Ǜ`bl4ɯǞƉaeligoumlecirc1đɔˬOtilde1ļ+acirciquest

ɱ1ˠŚHěƴ˗3 LCOEK-Gshyʩgt10)GȽ4ɯǞƉ1D) 20Έ25ƀ3Ǵ1ɥHGcurrenƦHGƴ˗db0E71HE3ƴ˗3źľĀEuml1DFHE3Ǜ`bl

-4ͳ3Ƞɱfrac12currenƦHGǛ3ȿͳɥHG34ɰampɯˬOtilde3gt-FHE3ˬ

Otilde4ȽǴK ŚampǛ`bl1DFȽKĖGɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKLľĜ$HĝǨ1oumlźľ-[oumlKłG4-00G ʖ 2 3ĔTHORN`bl4[oumlźľ-GɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKeumlɥ-0ľĜ4źľ-

oumlKłG10Gż$3ĔTHORN4ɯbrvbarȐʿoumlmiddotʇ3ordfȾ1D)ȪŚHGoumlĽŌK

ouml3źľEgraveȉ1divideampͳ-G

(f) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşmg4 Swiss Wind Energy Association ldquoSuisse Eolerdquo1DGA3-GƷ]bn

ʰƾ3mg4 2008ƀ1˩ɩHampͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ȇ1DGA3-G˺]bn4 FIT˩ʙD7 Swiss Federal Office of Energy3mTHORNouml3sup3Ś1ļ+A3-G Ugrave 7-47-64bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOELJŚ1ɥampmĀ1Gsup3ŚKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-4 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 2 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 6 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 1750 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1790 (2488) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 31 (43) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 7-5 11uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 7 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 30 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 70 NA NA Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 21 NA NA

FXn CHFeuro ndashndashndash 067 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

62

Ugrave 7-6 11uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125 (174) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash Ńuuml NA NA

ɯȐʿTHORNȐʿ-ordfȾ

73 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯ]bn4ʢ 120MWh167oMWhͿ-đɔbDFA 58MWh81oMWhͿ0)G

731 -1plusmnecirc

x 7-2 11uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecircpsup337

(a) BL0+igraveeacuteOgrave bPb-ɯHampouml4đɔbDFA˒Ū00)GH4ͶoumlɯʋƄ-Gamp

-GszligːǨ 1750ǨͿ

ĎȲ37 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringěĴ LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0G

ľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

63

(b) ccedil-1 bPb3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAH4Ņ3^Pn93NZdbİ

˜-GD7laquoacuteamp-GbPb3aRZn4ũˠȕ03-ņˠȕ0aRZ

nȣͶTHORNǨ3otildeƊɞfrac120)G

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig bPb3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAɯƯ-4ɼȧcentȵĪͲ10)F$3ampʰƾʚɡ

]bn0)GbPb-4ʰƾ1Gśʷ4L0

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bPb3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ4 7HGraquoL3a

RZn4yacute3ɡɦ1DFƷ0oumlmiddotʇ˺Goumlmiddotʇ4[ouml3˞3

=F1ƚKŠG

732 s_F(=2E

bPb1GͶoumlɯ3 FIT4 110~130MWh153Έ181oMWhͿ-mĀccedilǿ-4 125MWh174oMWhͿKɥGĔTHORN3DF˳˷ǥ4 721ugrave(e) Kđɔ3|-4$Hsup2ń3yacuteǓǎ`bl40

x 7-3 11uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup338

733 aringmH7B bPb-4ǕʘPdlOz1DF LCOE K)Gx 7-3 EbPb3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaR

Zn-4 FIT1DF LCOEK˚)GJG

ĎȲ38 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

64

73

Ugrave 7-7 11uumljBL0+psup339

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 120

(167) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125

(174) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash5

(ndash7) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

Die Website fuumlr Windenergie-Daten der Schweiz Accessed at wwwwind-datach

Erlaumluternder Bericht zur Revision der Anhaumlnge EnV Bundesamt fuumlr Energie 2102009

Swiss Energy Act of June 26 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_0html

Swiss Energy Ordinance of December 7 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_01html

ĎȲ39 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

65

Aring 8Auml Ecircz

81 Ecirczuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4ʟĴ1GD7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1$3]bn3ɚƙɚ1 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3ŚK˷ǥGȳͶoumlɯ14ʟĴ-4=$3ɯ1Gśʷ ampʞć1˦HG3gtG=ampAring 1 Auml1ʆampđɔbȣamp2008ƀ3ʟĴ3]bnccedilǿʫȁK˷ǥG

811 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

ʟĴ1GʦʏˬOtildeş42000ƀ3ʢ 25 GWE 2008ƀǶ3 25 GW1ŀdivideampx 8-1Ϳ2005ƀsup2ěƀƄ3ƀˬOtildeş4˫Kǭǝʯ2008ƀ14ǝamp1 85 GWdivideHampĎȲ402008ƀ14ǝˠɯşszligiquest3 42KͶoumlɯĈGſĹɱ0ƀ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeş1DFʟĴ3ʱȸouml3ʢ 19ͼKAEligʬ-GHG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)2008ƀ3ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4szlig3ͶoumlɯƯ1GǘOacute-GȳͶoumlɯaRZnA˩ɩHFɠķ4$3˴ėĕƖ

Ƞ1G x 8-1 4ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3Đ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71 2012 ƀ3currenɂD7 2030 ƀ

3ɉķɱ`pUKʆG

x 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

ʟĴ4ǥʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3ɶȔOacuteKˬŚ0ƕ)x 8-1 4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴŞɶȔOacute3degJF3mgɏKʆampA3-GSrYƥĽŬ (EIA) 3ʁǴcurrenɂ1DH52012 ƀ1ǝamp1ʢ 10 GW divideHGampˬOtildeş4 2008ƀDFAGʋƄŀdivideG˟gt-G (EIA 2009)ĎȲ41Ǵcurrenɂ1Gƀ3ʃʐ-

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(AWEA2010)ǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ŅĴȣ3ťHamp 2008ƀ1GA3-G ĎȲ41 Yacute1ampD12009ƀ1ɯHampͶoumlɯ3ˬʹş4 10 GWƍ10 (AWEA 2010)

66

4ɉķɱ0Ͷoumlɯ`pU3ccedilǿ1ļ+2030ƀ=-1ʟĴ-˟=HGouml˞3 20KͶoumlɯ-Ʉamp-GG (DOE 2008)3ʃʐ3LJŚ1DH520Pbn1Gamp14Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 305 GWƛ˞10GD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Ĝ˩Ϳ=amp3ʃʐ-42018ƀ=-1ƀˬOtildeşʢ 16 GW1ŀdivideGLJŚG Ugrave 8-1 4ʟĴ1GĐD7notƔcurrenɂHGʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 8-2 4Đ

D7notƔcurrenɂHGƀŨTHORNşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

25 26 43 47 64 68 92 117 169 255 595 251

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

Ugrave 8-2 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

NA 01 17 04 17 04 24 25 52 86 103 16

ȳ NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

812s_CcedilN3N9A

ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ3ampGĔTHORNɅ4oumlłaumlɣė˃SrYźľ˯ǥ (REC) -Gouml3ʪȽEgraveOacute REC3ł4ĸĻźľ$3reg3Ǽacute1DFaRZnȢ1ɮ0)G ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ4Ǖƃ3ʌiacute3UacuteLjʹ1D)ǓEHG2008 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ

ƴ˗143UacuteLjʹPy˺Ǚɣɤʌͳdž PTCͿ ɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČɥė˃-)amp (Schwabe et al 2009)

PTC4 2004ƀ=-1AgraveƄɄǴ1ampH3ľĜAǭǝHamp2000ƀE 2004ƀ=-1Aɯņ1EumlHamp2004ƀsup24 PTCżǨɥ-GD10)ampamp2005ƀE 2009ƀ1ʟĴ3ƀŨTHORNş4˫ɱ1ŀdivideamp (AWEA 2010) Ǖƃ3Ǖʘȿʌ4$3ť0Gaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗1˞0ʪȽɱEacuteɲKAampEGɠķ

EgraveOacute1ļ+ͶoumlɯaRZn14PTC divideUgraveČ3sect3Eacuteɲ1DFļɆaRZn3ˬʹ]bn3 35KG˟gt-G (Bolinger 2010)ľĜ1D)4PTCdivideUgraveČ3˜Ĝɱ0ʪȽucircȁouml3ł REC3ĔTHORN1ʗ0GG4$HKĮG10G (Harper et al 2007)ĎȲ42

82 Ecircz 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ƿʛ-42008 ƀ3ʟĴ1Gdeg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKGǷĽġǮ3reg3Ĵ3ȣ3ampʟĴ3ſĹɱG4deg˘ɱ0aRZn3ɚƙKsup21˷ǥGraquoȜʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3aR

Zn]bnɚƙ4ĸĻ1D)ɮ0FˬOtildeşAņ

ĎȲ42 H4Ͷoumlɯ3oumlȥǛĸUcirc3 RECEgraveȉ)ampĸĻ1D)ɮ0GǘŅ3˞į1ŷęHG

67

821 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ1G3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ſĹˬOtildeş4 1998Έ1999ƀ3ʢ 35 MWE 2007ƀ3 120 MW

=-F2008ƀ14 83 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ1ˬʹHampͶ3Śȉş4 05 MWǵɄE 3 MW=-F2008ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn-4ſĹ 167 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ3ǰAˊɱ0Ͷ4Śȉaeligouml 15 MWgɷƑ 77 mtz 80 m (GE2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) -G

(b) BL0+Ouml ͶɅ34aRZn1D)ņ1ɮ0)Gszligiquestɱ14ʟĴ-4ɡƦɱ0Ͷȯ10)G

ʟĴ3aRZn3szligːǨ4ʢ 1800Έ4400 ǨŃuumlņ2008 ƀ14şdivideſĹ 3066 ǨˤŤHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ43szligːǨ3LJŚOacute4 2007ƀ1ˬʹH 2008ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+A3-ʟĴszligiquest3ͶɅ3ɉķƟK|b1ampA3-40ɏ1ɫƧ-

G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn4ƀɼś1ŀdivideG2008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZ

n14Ʒ]bn4ǰfrac12ʢ 1000kW1400okWͿE 1800kW2500okWͿƍ=-FşdivideſĹ4 1378kW19195okWͿ-G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ44

Ľġ1DH5Ͷ3ĕƊEgraveȉAƀǤtimesğ1)amp2008 ƀ3˕Ċȗ0E71$H1sup1ǪȥƔ1DG˞frac123Ɛ-Ͷ3EgraveȉD7AEligʬ3frac12ɣ G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009 Bolinger 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ14ijŚŃuuml3ǞĠ=H(E-˘ADş|b3]bn

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ʰƾʱͳ4Ńuuml-˘5 74MWh103oMWhͿijŚ-4ƀ 226kW314okWͿ-GĎȲ46ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3ʃʐ-42010ƀ=-3ʰƾKʢ 69MWh96oMWhͿBBfrac12˟ʏA)G (DOE 2008)ĎȲ47

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯɯaRZn3˺-4ˇŹ3otildeĜKaRZn|

b3OumlKlteampˇŹ3otildeĜ0)G34114ȞĘɱ1ɣɤʌdžǜʯɱ1˖JHampamp-GOuml1DG˺4ͶoumlɯaRZn3˺ǴKƊ=amp

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ĎȲ43 ˬOtildeeumlɥɞ 35ͼ1ļ+ ĎȲ44 ]bn4szlig 2008ƀƄ3D7o-˘ʆ2008ƀ 12DZ 31ǡsup23onjʙ1ɥampɐǯn4 1

139o (Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ45 NREL3atildemg|bELJŚampɤʌǓƱͳ3ſĹ ĎȲ46 2008ƀ3ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71szligːǨTHORNoumlsup3Ś1ļ+ ĎȲ47 ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71 2008ƀƄ3szligːǨTHORNoumlLJŚOacute1ļ+ 2008ƀo1ŃnjampLJŚOacute

68

1ijŚG40)ampE-GʟĴ3Ouml3ư4ż`bl3szligaeligouml1ťSrYŋʢEgraveȉ

Kbrvbarntilde1ȪŚK˞ȨG (Cory and Schwabe 2009)E14 2008ƀƔĄ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ouml1DG˺4Ĵ˕źľ3˕ȴuumlbZĮ3amp˕Ċȗ3ntildeȣ˒İ10

)G (Schwabe et al 2009) mccedilǿ-4 100ͼǷƷKsup3ŚG3˺4 2008 ƀ1ʟĴ1ǃregɱ1-40ʸF

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(f) s_CcedilN3N9A ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3˞0ĔTHORNɅ41ͿǴŋʢG4źľ|b3Egraveȉ1ļ+oumlD

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(g) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3mĀccedilǿ-4==0mgfbKɥampɚ1eumlɥė˃0agraveɱǛKUacuteYacuteamp

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Ʒ]bnʰƾ)ampŃǘ14Wiser and Bolinger 20093ecirc˘1E1˳˷ǥG

822 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

ɠķ=-3IʟĴ-4ĩɥˠȕ3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥAring40ƈˬ3aRZnA

0ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3Ľġ-4= 2012Έ2018ƀ1ĩɥȳͶoumlɯ3ɯaRZnȶȦĻƴ˗KɥǾȷųȫ-ɱ1˖JHG10GǴƒHGđʾ3amp-4currenƦHGȳ

ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKʆampʟĴ-ɥHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn4=œķ0

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(b) ccedil-1 ȳͶoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4Ńuumlņ2000 ƀdegĄ5E4ğtimesğ1GʟĴȚŵ-NjȊH

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ĎȲ50 3UgraveČ˩ɩ4ƀĄ53ƫAring1ļ+A3-2008ƀ 2009ƀ1eumlɥė˃)amp 50ͼĽŌUgraveČ4ʾƬ0

69

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US Offshore Wind Collaborative-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn4 3300kW4600okWͿ10GcurrenɂG (USOWC 2009)

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn=ɥH0ampʰƾ3currenƦ4˒ʄśƟG

ɯ˘HGmg40ʟĴȚŵ-NjȊHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ1G

ǰ3˟ʏF1DH5ʱ]bn4ʢ 137MWh19oMWhͿ10GĎȲ52

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯ3ɯD7ɥ1bZ˟=HF=ampɯBɥ3ʪA0amp

Ǝeacute3(4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bnaRZnDFA4G10GcurrenƦ

HGȳͶoumlaRZn3˺-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3cedilʭɱ0ƷưȠ0J(Igrave

middotʇͿ-40bZ˭şƄ3ƷưȠ0J(Ȥ3ˇŹǷͿeumlɥHGƝJHGAring5Ȥ

3ˇŹǷƷ1ƛ˞HGeumlɲɞ4ś˯Gƴ˗1 25Έ350GcurrenƦHG (Justice 2010)=ampʟǕƃ4ĩɥD7ǝɱaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗3$Hͳ-0Ouml1DGǷ˺KǓǎ

Gamp3˕OgraveTHORNIgrave˯KNjAEligG(EAȳƴ˗1ɥ-Gė˃ƟAGͿraquoɠ˖Ȱ-4

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n1Aeumlɥ-Gsup3ŚHGǕƃ3PdlOz14˫3 PTCɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČĠ=HGɚ1ǾȷųȫcopyņɃĸĻ3ŵ4ě3ʚĂ1GȳͶoumlɯaRZnKEuml

Gamp3==0ǞȰKeumlɥHE3aRZnKŨG (USOWC 2009)

(e) Q54Q1 ȳͶoumlɯ3ɚƙ1G˞0mgɅ4ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution

to US Electricity SupplyrdquoĽġǮ (DOE 2008)US Offshore Wind Collaborative3US Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo0E71ʟĴ3ȳͶoumlɯ1Gěʍ3Ľɯ˘ʗ-GraquoǰƔ3A314ȲƧƛ˞-G

Ugrave 8-3 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ53

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ54 ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 165 167 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ͷļǘ ļ 73 50 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ɯĎȲ55 szligːǨ 2891 3066 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1241 (1725) 1378 (1915) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʰƾ ijŚͿĎȲ56 eurokW ($kW) 50 (70) 50 (70) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʰƾ ŃuumlͿĎȲ57

euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (80) 58 (80) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

$3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆWiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ51 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ52 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ53 Yacute1ampD1]bn4szlig 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆ ĎȲ54 3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙ4ntildeʛ1ʆGȳͶoumlɯ4ʟĴ3 LCOEccedilǿ14Ġ0 ĎȲ55 eumlɥɞ 2007ƀ 33ͼ2008ƀ 35ͼsup3ŚG (Wiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) ĎȲ56 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampş|b3ʰƾ4 2007ƀ 2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG ĎȲ57 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampɯouml|b3ʰƾ42007ƀ2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG

70

(f) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 8-38-5 4ș1G LCOE ccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3sup3ŚKʆG]bn3sup3Ś4HA 2007 ƀ

2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1GA3-2008ƀƄ3o-˘GmD7ǞȰ3˳˷ǥ4Aring 1AumlKđɔHamp

Ugrave 8-4 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 100 100 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash WACC ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

Ǵ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ȰlaquoʌɞĎȲ58 ͼ 389 389 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FXnĎȲ59 $US 139 139 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆChadbourne and Parke 2009 Harper et al 2007 Schwabe et al 2009

Ugrave 8-5 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

oumlźľEgraveȉĎȲ60 euroMWh ($MWh) 382 (531) 419 (582) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

źľEgraveȉ˯ǥĎȲ61 euroMWh ($MWh)

˫1 Ġ=HG

˫1 Ġ=HG ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FITǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml |bͿĎȲ62

euroMWh ($MWh) 144 (200) 151 (210) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ 10 10 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 6 6 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆHarper et al 2007 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ58 LJŚHampǕƃŵǕƃ3ʌɞ4$HH 35ͼ 6ͼ-Gɏ1ɫƧ (Harper et al 2007)ŵʌ4ĔTHORNEdž

HGamp˜Ĝśucircʌɞ4 389ͼ-G ĎȲ59 szlig3]bn4 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆGamp2007ƀA 2008ƀA 2008ƀǶ3ɐǯnKɥamp

(Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ60 2007ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3EgraveȉˬŚ1Gsup3ŚAWiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+˥amp ĎȲ61 aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3LJŚͳKouml3źľEgraveȉ3˩ʙ1ĠG ĎȲ62 PTCnjʙOacute4 13frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORN

71

823 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯTHORNoumlvgKɥ2007 ƀ 2008 ƀ3 LCOE K˩ʙamp2008 ƀ3ʟĴ LCOE2008

ƀ3ʟĴ3sup3ŚKszligAumlɥͿKđɔb2008 ƀ3đɔb3szligsup3ŚKAumlɥͿȣamp$3ʫȁ4sup23F-G Ĵecirc3ěTHORNoumlŃǘKě3đɔb3sup3ŚEʟĴ3sup3Ś9ŀccedilɱ1degTHORNđɔbʟĴ3 LCOE

3Ÿɮ93ěŃǘ3ƐKLJŚ-GD1ampʟĴ3 LCOE 4 3 MWh4 oMWhͿ-đɔb3 LCOEDFAfrac12x 8-2đɔͿ

x 8-2 EcirczrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup363

(b) BL0+dj ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4ſĹˍō0Ͷȯ3ơƣKĖG-G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ|b3

aRZn-4ſĹ 3066 Ǩ3szligːǨǴƒHGđɔb-4 2628 ǨͿʟĴ-4aRZn3aeligouml0G LCOEđɔbDFAʢ 8MWh11oMWhͿfrac120G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAʢ 72 kW100o kWͿfrac120)G

2008ƀ3ſĹƷ]bn4đɔb 1449kW2029okWͿ-G31ťʟĴ-4 1378kW19195okWͿ-GǑĐ]bnͶoumlɯˬOtilde3ǑĐ]bnaRZn^Pn3ƘUcirc]bnĠ=HGͿ4szliggt3Ʒ]bn1Ġ=HGsup3ŚHGƕ)ʟĴ-4Ʒ]bnfrac12

G1HLCOEđɔbDFAʢ 2MWh3oMWhͿfrac120G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3˺]bn4ˇŹǷ|amp2008ƀ4 100ͼͿ=ampđɔb-4

Ouml1DG˺KɥGampđɔbDFA0)G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯaRZn3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ75ͼͿ4đɔb3Oumleumlɲɞ55ͼͿDFA 200|`bPn0)G ʟĴ-4ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 2007 ƀE 2008 ƀ1ŀdivideampH4ǕĊȗ1DFƕǽ3ǷƷŞ

ĎȲ63 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

72

KŊ)ampamp-G (Schwabe et al 2009)H4=ampư0Egraveȉ3frac34Ŗ)ampreg3ʊʌdžƷAĝȓ3ơƣKƖEHGD1GʟĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY3ʌdžǕʘ3Ɵ1DGA3-3Ǖʘ1DF 2007ƀ1ʢ 6ͼ3eumlɲNjAEligHHȇƉƷeumlɲɞ3KŚG10)amp (Chadbourne and Parke 2007)ʟĴ3˺]bn0GʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 8MWh11oMWhͿ0G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAfrac120)Gʰƾ4ijŚG4Ńuuml-˘-

G3ampđɔb3ȣ-4ŃuumlǼacute-˘ampnjʙćǛ3LJŚOacuteampʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJ

Śʱͳ4 7MWh10oMWhͿđɔb3 13MWh18oMWhͿK4G1Į)ampraquoĽġ1DH5ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯɤȐ4ʰƾʚɡ]bn3˟ʏF1G˞˹Ͳ1ɠķAɷFĽ

ġHampmg4Ǩřszlig-Gamp3LJŚOacute4ƪ1˥Gƛ˞G =ampʰƾ4aRZn3ˠȕũ0G1Hfrac12G˯ƻAG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

HAʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJŚͳđɔbȣfrac120)G3į-GʟĴ3aR

Zn3ˠȕ4đɔbDFAņampͿ=ampʟĴ3ʰƾ4ǝˠaRZn14=DzucircIgrave

˯Ǵatilde-Gamp1ʵĥHGė˃ƟGʟĴ3ʰƾfrac120GʟĴ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFAʢ 6MWh8oMWhͿfrac120G

(f) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4Ƿ]bn˺]bnG4szliggt3ʰƾ1Ġ=HGƦŚHGamp

ʟĴ3ccedilǿ-4ecircmĀ0reg3]bn14ʡʭɥʿ1DGfrac12ĶPob (LVRT) ˞acuteG4ɑucircouml]bnʗGN`^wbǛ4ż4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɷDž˹

HG40

(g) uumljfrac14divideWocirceumlCcediloslash Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ]bn4đɔbDFA0)GHE3Ǖʘ1

41ͿȰlaquoʌɞ2ͿȰlaquo˹ʌƯƖE3eumlőǓƱdžĠ=HGʟĴ3DzucircȰlaquoʌɞ389Ϳ4đɔb30ͿDFA$3amp LCOE0)GE1Ƿ1DG 100˺K˟L-GampʟĴ3 LCOE ˹ʌƯƖ3eumlőǓƱdž1D)ȿͳHG40ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFAʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ0)G

824 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj3˩ʙ1DFʟĴ3ĔTHORNŃǘouml RECͿ3OacuteKͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘȣGyacuteYj4=ĔTHORNǕʘAͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘKĠ

1˩ʙș1ĔTHORNŃǘ3gtKĠauml˩ʙGǰƔ1auml7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘKĠ˩

ʙG3ŀccedilsup3Ś1DFͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘ1ťGĔTHORN3ɸťɱEgraveOacuteKǥE1amp x 8-34ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘĔTHORN3ŃǘKȣHE 23D1ʟĴ3 LCOE

KȒƭGKʆampA3-G2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3 LCOEʢ 41MWh57oMWhͿ4ĔTHORNɅouml REC3łͿ-JHGʢ 24MWh33oMWhͿ4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHGPTCUgraveČ˩ɩ3divideͿotildeĜ-˘0EʟĴ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 24ĔTHORN-ȟF3 3ccedil3 14ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHG

73

x 8-3 Ecirczs_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup364

825 aringmH7B

ʟĴ3mĀccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash1 MWhndash1 oMWhͿ-G3EʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4aRZnɯ1ƛ˞HGyacute˞acuteKɄamp31ăccedil0Xj`

yKĔTHORND7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOzȉGľĜͿEƖG10G34

PTCżǨDzucirc-)amp 2005Έ2009ƀ3ƀͶoumlˬOtildeş3ʯɱ˫EAǥE-GH41ƀŨTHORNş4 PCT]bnɑucirc10)ampǨ1˒ȿŪG (AWEA2009)ĎȲ65

83 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+

ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ƀƞ1ƼņGH4Ͷȯż1ˍō-]bnȣɱfrac12ĔTHORN

Ʌăccedil1F=ampľĜ1D)4Dzɲ0ǕʘPdlOzKeumlɥ-GE-GʟĴ1Gɠķ=

-3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn4HA-śǟHampʟĴeacute0GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯ

EHGʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bn4ˊ1đɔbDFAfrac12H4SrYaeligouml

ņǷ]bnʰƾfrac121DGͶoumlɯ1GǕƃ3ǕʘPdlOzȜ

Ɖ1˴ŚHamp-Ĵatilde3Ņ3szlig-401AͿ3ɯaRZnEumlHG10)amp

E-GĔTHORNǕʘ3PdlOz3ɸiexclucircȁ1DFͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ3yacuteYj4lte10

)G

Ugrave 8-6 EcirczIumlsectpsup366

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

58 (81)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

60 (83)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

ndash1 (ndash1) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ĎȲ64 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ65 x 8-1đɔ ĎȲ66 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

74

rOtildemiddot

AWEA (2010) ldquoUS Wind Energy Industry Breaks All Records Installs Nearly 10000 MW in 2009 Manufacturing

Investment Jobs Still Lagrdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) news release January 26 2010 at httpwwwaweaorgnewsroomreleases01-26- 10_AWEA_Q4_and_Year-End_Report_Releasehtml

AWEA (2009) ldquoAmerican Wind Energy Association Annual Wind Industry Report Year Ending 2008rdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) at httpwwwaweaorgpublicationsreportsAWEA-Annual-Wind-Report-2009pdf

Bolinger M (2010) ldquoRevealing the Hidden Value that the Federal Investment Tax Credit and Treasury Cash Grant Provide to Community Wind Projectsrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL-2909E January 2010 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreportslbnl-2909epdf

Capewind (2010) ldquoCape Wind Signs Agreement to Buy Siemens 36-MW Offshore Wind Turbinesrdquo Cape Wind (Capewind) news release March 31 2010 at httpwwwcapewindorgnews1086htm

Chadbourne and Parke (2009) ldquoTrends in Tax Equity for Renewable Energyrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke January 2009 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication810dde60-3c78-4a9a-9c5d- a5fae8014b4fPresentationPublicationAttachment51fc06c5-1407-48ac-9dff- a605de0f58e1pfn0109pdf

Chadbourne and Parke (2007) ldquoThe Tax Equity Marketrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke April 2007 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication572b04b4- 905e-48e1-8f6b-0f520c4f2615PresentationPublicationAttachment573bdc6c-ff85-4f99-b4d0- 25a845907bccpfn0407pdf

Cory K Schwabe P (2009) ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financing Input Variablesrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL TP-6A2-46671 October 2009 at httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

DOE (2010) ldquoGeneral Loan Guarantee Program Frequently Asked Questionsrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) accessed April 2010 at httpwwwlgprogramenergygovfaq2htm

DOE (2008) ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution to US Electricity Supplyrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2008 at httpwww20percentwindorg

EIA (2009) ldquoAnnual Energy Outlook 2010 Early Release with Projections to 2030rdquo US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration (EIA) website accessed February 2010 at httpwwweiadoegovoiafaeoexcelaeotab_16xls

102Federal Reserve (2010) ldquoHistorical Rates for Euro Areardquo Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System website accessed February 2010 at httpwwwfederalreservegovreleasesh10histdat00_euhtm

GE (2010) ldquo15 MW Wind Turbine Technical Specificationsrdquo GE Energy (GE) website accessed April 2010 at httpwwwgepowercomprod_servproductswind_turbinesen15mwspecshtm

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review amp Comparative Analysisrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports63434pdf

Justice S (2009) ldquoPrivate Financing of Renewable Energy ndash A Guide for Policymakers UNEP Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative Bloomberg New Energy Finance Chatham House December 2009 at httpwwwchathamhouseorgukfiles15542_1209_financeguidepdf

Schwabe P Cory K Newcomb J (2009) ldquoRenewable Energy Project Financing Impacts of the Financial Crisis and Federal Legislationrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory technical report NRELTP-6A2-44930 July 2009 at

75

httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti44930pdf

USOWC (2009) ldquoUS Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo US Offshore Wind Collaborative (USOWC) October 2009 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreports63434pdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2009) ldquo2008 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2009 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports2008-wind-technologiespdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2008) ldquoAnnual Report on US Wind Power Installation Cost and Performance Trends 2007rdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy May 2008 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs43025pdf

76

Uograve AĂsup1agraveUumlaacute

shyocircMQ+Q

BL0+para

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

aRZn3gPn Project title

aRZnĞregĴ3QOo

yMȣGamp AringΆoPk3đɔQOoyM13

aRZn3ʍ͵ Project type

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ʍ͵ A4ȳ

Ͷļǘ Number of wind turbines

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

Ͷʱǘ$EěĴ3ɡ˼

3ſĹɱQOoyMͿ

ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

Śȉaeligouml Rated power

Ͷ 1ļ3Śȉaeligouml ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

gɷƑ Rotor diameter

Ͷ3gɷƑ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

ĖͶʏ Swept area

gͶKĖGszligʏ m2-˘˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

tz Hub height

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ƚĸɏ3ſĹ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽraquotz

3ſĹͶƀɯouml4ɷDž

EcircGͿ tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ

Lond term average wind speed at hub height

tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

Ȝģɯouml Net electricity production

QOoyM3ƀſĹȜ

ģɯouml szligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

ƺʌouml Tax capability

iacute΄ɑiacute ćɜ3aRZn3ľĜ

4ʌiacuteUacuteʘKszligeumlɥ-GͿG4

ˣmiddotʇKƾ3ľĜ4ˣmiddotʇ

Ǝ˲ƀƄ3ʌdžKszligDzucirc1eumlɥ-

GͿ4_Ƹ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4

Ĵʌ΄ʌ3gt1ɥHGŵʌBĸ

Ǟʌ4ńͿ Currency

szlig]bnĔTHORNPdlOz

ʗ3 2007ǫƀ 2008ǫƀ3$HHdeg˘ɱ0ǡ $HH 2007ƀ 12DZ 3ǡ 2008ƀ12DZ 31ǡͿ3ȣ1ļ+1ˬŚ

ijŚƀ]bnćfrac14 Fixed annual costs unit

ijŚʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kW

Ńuumlƀ]bnćfrac14 Variable annual costs unit

ƀʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kWh

ccedil-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ͷ Wind turbine

ͶD7ɯ˙ʹ3Yacute˖Ʒ

]bn ggtzgĖ

oPznPKƿʆGPy

YN~jZb`blxj

i`blzX`blpdt

77

Qa[ɯȗgzoͶ

ɥŃĶĬraraquoļʅG4ʡʭDž

ʯ4Ġ=reg-ƲͿ Ͷ3 Wind turbine transportation

ͶK˛ŶľEaRZ

nɯ^Pn1$1ˬ

ʹ-GD1Gamp3]b

n

Ͷ3aRZn^Pn93Křpound

Gamp1ɥEHG΄n

jZ]bnD7Z3]bnK

Ġ Ͷ3ˬʹ Wind turbine installation

aRZnƈˬǴ3Ͷ

3ˬʹ]bn ƈˬ3Z3]bnKĠ

ũ˩ΆͶ3]bn Sub-total wind turbine cost

Ͷ 3ļsup23]bn3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ļʅ Foundations

QOoyM1ƛ˞0ļʅ

3ʱ]bn ]Zn$3regQOoyM

3ěͶKǓG31ƛ˞0ȒǓȅK

Ġ Ȓatildeʡʭ Internal grid

QOoyM3ŃƯ93

Džʯ1ƛ˞0QOoyM

atilde3ȥʡʭ

QOoyMatilde3szlig3ʳQO

oyM3ŃƯ=-D7ŃƯ

3ʳKĠͿŃƯ1ʡɏDF

ntilde1ʡʭʡŃĶĬGľĜ4$3Ń

ĶĬ=-3szlig3ʳKĠ1șiacuteƗɯ`blKuziacuteƗGamp1ˬʹ

HampiacuteƗ˙ʹͿ3]bnKĠƯDzʿ

D7Ͷ˛brvbarȐʿ1ǖB˿ġKcedilamp

FͶKǒAcirc1DFuumlD7Ocirc

țampFɥʭ˩OacuteKƵǍGamp3

ɴˡiacuteƗ`bl (SCADA)G4QOoyMɴˡ`bl3ˬʹKĠ

ʡʭʡ[jo]o3

Ɇƻ Grid connection grid code compliance

QOoyM3ʡʭʡ1

ƛ˞0ŃĶĬǠœ3oumlʡʭ

-ƛ˞HGȥʡʭ

QOoyMEʡʭ=-3ʳ

0[jo]oɆƻ3amp1ȨE

HGegrave3divideɱ˙ʹĠ=HGQO

oyMʡʭʡŃĶĬKĠ˜ǘ3

ŃƯKDzGľĜʡʭʡŃĶĬ

ʡʭ3ʳ3gtKĠ ʡʭŀƍ Grid reinforcement

˄Ƌ0ʡʭ-4QOoyM

3ʡ3ampʡʭ3reg3ccedil

3ĶʤKG1DF

ʡʭKŀƍGė˃ƟG

Ǡœ3ʡʭ3ŀƍ1ƛ˞0˙ʹ

ŀƍdivideɱiacuteƗ$3reg3macrdivideɱ˙ʹKĠ

Ϳ

ŃƯ Substations and transformer station

ʡʭʡŃĶĬˇiquestD7$H

=-3ĂKĠampQOoy

M3ʡʭatilde1Gszlig3

ŃƯ3]bn

ʡʭ93ʡĸɏ=-ǜĬD7ǜ

ĬKĠŃĶĬ4ĶKǤĶGȥ

ȗĬ-GL3Ͷ4aeligoumlKʡ

ʭĶ1ǤĶGŃĶĬKDzG ũ˩Άȥʡʭ Sub-total electrical netgrid

ȥʡʭ1G˫ 4 ɶ3ũ˩

˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ˴˯ Certification

ʡʭʡG1amp)QO

oyMK˴˯Gamp3]

bn

˴˯Hampˬ˩IJ3]bnD7QOo

yM3ś3ƈˬK3ˬ˩IJȣ

G]bnKĠ ɢĿ˺Ȇ Environmental survey

QOoyM3ɯȠ-

ƛ˞10GɢĿ˺Ȇ3ʱͳH

4ěĴ3ɢĿƐ˰EgraveǮ3acirciquest

ɱ0˞acute1˟G-G

ȩȃ3ė˃ƟɊɇograveʗͿ ͷ|3LJŚ Ǫˤ93ˡˢɱƐ ɣɣəD7ɣƩʡ93ƈˬD7 3Ɛ ɚŚ3ͻ˓˔3ɴˡ `oQyjV3Oslash

Pysup2ń3ɯ]bn

3ũ˩ Non-infrastructure development subtotal

˫3Pysup2ń3aR

Znɯ3˫ 2ɶ3ʱ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

78

ʰƾˬOtilde OampM facilities

ʰƾȐyacute3˖1ƛ˞0

D7ǟˬKǝamp1ƈˬG

]bn

Ͷ3ƈˬ14aRZn3ˀ

ɥƀǘ3ʰƾgzo3

ɏȏ]bnD7ņĺĦ3ordfnj]bn $3reg Miscellaneous

˫3aRZnɯ]bn

1Ġ=H0$3regegrave3

]bn

3ĵĸƯDzʿ93˚Ugrave

ntilde3eumlőǓƱ Interest payment before operation

aRZnŐntilde1ǓƱ

ƛ˞10Geumlő3ʱͳ ż4ƈˬȠ3OumlD7Ͷ3Ͱ

ǓƱ3amp33Ńǘ4 1Έ2ƀatilde3yacuteŃǘ-G3Xj`y

mŐHGɥeacuteƀƄ1

4ntilde-ǓƱ]bnG reg3aRZnɯ]b

n3ũ˩ Sub-total other project development costs

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫frac14ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0

ľĜʱͳ-˘

aRZnƷ]bn3

ʱͳ Total project investment costs

˫ɯɶũ˩3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

q-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǑĐbZjEgraveͳK

Ϳ Decommisioning excl scrap value

ļʅKĠQOoyMK

ĵĸEǑĐG31˞G]

bn

QOoyMD7egrave3Py

ZʗͿ3˥iquestǑĐə

$3regegrave3ƛ˞0Ǖƃ˯ǥǮ3Acircƭ]b

n ĵĸ3ˇɓɛƩ93ĮƘ Returning the land to the natural state

ĵĸ3ɠɛĮƘ3amp3]bn aRZnřpoundamp1ɯɣ

bZjEgraveͳ Scrap value

ǑĐǨ3bZjǺǛ3łČ

EgraveOacute ʳʗaumleumlɥG4bZj

łČ-Gė˃Ɵ3GQOoyM

3ǺǛ ȜģǑĐ]bn Net decommissioning costs

˫ɶ3ʱͳ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

BL0+igraveeacute Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǨszligːǨmO

nKͿ Operational time full load hours excluding derate

szligːǨ4QOoyM

3ſĹƀɯoumlK$3

Śȉaeligouml-ampOacute-G

H4szligːǨ3Ĝ˩-F˩ɩɱ

D7˩ɩń3ʰƾʚɡ3amp3OcircțǨK

ĠszligːǨŅŚamp^P

n1GQOoyM3ɯouml

AŀdivideG szligːǨ3mOn Derate of full load hours

QOoyMʎOslash

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3ǏŊKĠ ȜģǨȜģszligːǨ

Net operational timefull load hours

ǨszligːǨEmO

nKƊampǨ ȜģǨ3Ĝ˩KĠG0J(m

OnKĠGͿ

ˀɥƀǘ Economic life

ƦŚHGaRZn3ˀɥ

ƀǘ3ǴaRZn]

bn3ʱͳKĮĔ0H50

E0Ϳ

AringaRZnKʮʯɥG-

ƦŚHampˀɥƀǘsup21ăccedilʎOslash-

GɛƩ1)ampAaRZn

3ȟœˀɥƀǘ4egraveĠ0 ]bn˩ʙ3amp3˩ɩť

Ǵ Time horizon for cost

LCOE˩ʙ3ť0GǴ _OacuteKTHORNouml0ľĜ4myTn

ˬŚ1DFˀɥƀǘ1ˬŚG

79

calculations

aringm Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ǵ Loan duration

ȽǴ3Ĝ˩ ͰD7eumlőǓƱKĠ

― źľeuml Loan - market interest rate

euml3Oacute43ư1D)

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fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml3ƖEHG Oumleumlɲɞ Return on debt

Ǵ1ȢƀƖEHG

euml ȢƀƖEHGeuml

ƛ˞HGǷeumlɲɞź

ľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivideʙ

KͿ Required return on equity excl market volatility risk adder

QOoyM3ǷƷŞ

ȨGeumlɲɞ Ƿ1Geumlɲ3otildeĜ

źľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivide

ʙ Market volatility risk adder

ʕyenɱźľ1đdivideǷeumlɲɞ

KGdividebZKƵǍG

KɶɱampA3

źľ1GcurrenƦń3ŃuumlbZKʾƬ

Gamp1divideʙGotildeĜ

ƛ˞HGƷǷ3Ȝ

ģeumlɲɞ Net required return on investment equity

ɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZ

nƷŞ93ǷeumlɲɞǷƷ

ŞȨGźľŃuumlƟ3b

ZKĠͿ

Ƿeumlɲɞźľ3ŃuumlƟKʾƬG

ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKƵǍGamp mZ-ɥė ˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ƿ3otildeĜĸUcircǷ3ƯDz

ȖKͿ Equity share excl local equity ownership

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp1ƻaeligGǷ3otilde

Ĝ

ͶǓƾ˙ʹPyʚɡ˺

ʗ3]bnKamp1ƷGǷ3

ʱͳ

Ƿ3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Total equity share

ĸUcirc3Ƿ3ƯDzȖ0E71ʱ

Ʒ]bn ˺]bnK

amp1ƻaeligGǷ3otildeĜ3

Ĝ˩

ĸUcircD7ĸUcircsup2ń3ƷŞNjAEligamp

Ƿ3ʱͳ

Ouml3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Debt share

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp3Ouml3otildeĜ THORNoumlGǷ3otildeĜ1ļ+˩ʙOacute

aRZn3ʱ]bn 100EǷ3otildeĜKƊampOacuteͿ

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate- municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠǘOacute

4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ȝģʌɞ Net tax rate

ǕƃĸǞŵǕƃ3Ȱlaquoʌ

ɞ3Ĝ˩ -˘ʆǕƃźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

80

shy MQ+Q

oacute-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

˛ȐʿNjAEligGʰƾʚ

ɡ]bn Manufacturer-provided maintenance

eacuteƀƄG4$3Ɣ1divide]

bn0-˛ȐʿNjAEligG

ʰƾʚɡ]bn

3]bn4żQOoyM3ˬʹ

]bn1Ġ=HGampeacuteǴ4e1

0G4-G

atildebgjy1DG˩ɩɱ

ʰƾʚɡ]bn Scheduled maintenance by internal staff

aRZnƯDzʿ3bgjy

1DGŚǴɱ0QOoyM

3ʰƾʚɡ]bn

bgjy1DGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

ń^wbŋʢ External service contracts

reg3˻Ȑʿ1DGŚǴɱ0Q

OoyM3ʰƾʚɡ]b

n

˻brvbarȐʿDGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

]bn Operation costs

QOoyM3ɥ1ƛ˞

0ƀ]bn SCADA KĠQOoyM3ƴ˗ɱɥ3amp3]bn-ʚɡ]bn-40

H14ecirc˷ǥͿǘOacuteȥcurren

ɂ3]bnKĠ ɏȏ Inspections

Ͷɏȏ3amp˻ȐʿK

ˇʇ-A˫3^wb˻

Ȑʿ-A0ľĜͿ

gzo3Ľġ2~4ƀȢͿĦ3ƴ˗ɏȏͶ 1 ļampF 2 ƀȢ1 1 ǡͿKĠɏȏ3ǨȂ4kW |b

-ˬŚ ˩ɩń3Icircɡ Unscheduled repairs

˩ɩń3Icircɡʰƾʚɡ ˙ʹ3ǖŇȥɛȯ$3reg3ńį1DG

ʰƾijŚͿũ˩ OampM costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ OampM costs variable subtotal

˫3Ńuumlʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝͳ-˘ ʚɡ Administration

QOoyM3ʚɡ

D7ɴɽ3]bn ʬƈəˇuumlD7ɗǛͿʗKĠ

Igrave Insurance

QOoyM$33

bZD7$3Ɛ1OtildeG

amp1ǓƱƀIgraveǛ

uumlɤIgraveǏŝUgraveuacuteɍ˚UgraveD7ɢĿ

)ampQOoyM1ɷDžEcirc

Gegrave3Igrave

ʡʭǛ Grid charges

ʡʭ93ʡ0E71ɥKǓ

ǎG31ƛ˞HGƀǛ

_4HKş|b3]bn

G4SrY]bnTHORNouml

G-G ʡʭ3]bnijŚͿ Grid costs fixed

˫3ʡʭǛ

ʡʭ3]bnŃuumlŃuumlͿ Grid costs variable

˫3ʬ˺ʛ]bn

^Pn3 Site lease

QOoyMKˬʹampĵ

ĸ3ƯDzʿ1ǓƱʱͳ Ͷ 1 ļ1macrǓƱľĜAʱͳ-ǓƱľĜAʱ]bn-THORNouml

G ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

aRZnşƀ

kWͿ1ļ+aRZnǓƱƀʌͳ

ͼ|b3ʌ4˫3Z`n-ƀ

șŃuuml30ŃǘTHORNoumlG

1ȲƧ-4ş|b3ʌKʆ

$3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG ȸouml Electricity consumption

ouml3ˇŹȸ ʡʭ3ĝǴD7ɯƯ3uumlʗ3amp

_4HEKş|bG4

SrY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ɢĿɂŚ˰Egraveʗ Environmental measurements evaluations etc

QOoyM3˴ė0E7

1KʰƾG31ƛ˞0ƀ

ɢĿɂŚ˰Egrave

_4HEKş|bG4Sr

Y]bnTHORNoumlG-

G

81

reg3ƀ]bnijŚͿũ

˩ Other annual costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚɢĿɂŚǛ

ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ Other annual costs variable subtotal

˫3oumlȸ]bn

ƀ]bnijŚͿ Annual costs fixed

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ƀ]bnŃuumlͿ Annual costs variable

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘

Ts_-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ƀźľđdivide]bn Annal market participation fee

ʕyenɱoumlźľ1đdivideGamp

3ƀ]bn źľɥʿʡʭɥʿ1ǓƱ

ʬ˺Ǚ]bn Balancing costs

ͶoumlɯKěǨ1oumlʡ

ʭ1DžʯGamp3]bnʱͳ

aeligoumlcurrenɂ1Gś3ŀccedil]

bn

kW]bn4ȜƉ0ʬ˺ǙźľKG43]bnouml3źľ

Egraveȉ1Ġ=HGampccedilG3İ

0ľĜAG_4HE3]bn

Kş|b3]bnG4S

rY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ŋʢ]bnĕƊǛʗͿ Contract costs (transaction fees etc)

ŋʢ3ʰƾ1ƛ˞0ƀǓƱͳ kWh-˘ĕƊǛ

reg3]bn3ʱͳ Subtotal other costs

źľđdivide]bnʬ˺Ǚ]b

nŋʢ]bn3Ĝ˩

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKşǦ1GĽ

Ō kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƟʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źľoumlEgraveȉ Market price electricity

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

ƀſĹźľoumlEgraveȉ kWh

źľ˯ǮEgraveȉ Market price certificates

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ3

ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kWhǕʘ1DFG4źľ|b-ˬŚHGľĜGǘOacute4ecirc

THORNoumlG FITĔTHORN Feed-in tariff revenue

FIT1DGĔTHORN ż4aR

Zn]bn3ǓƱ3amp3ŀ

ccedilǓƱŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞK

ʄIgraveG31Auml ouml3źľEgrave

ȉKĠľĜAG

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐKŐampƀƄ1

ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlHG

reg3ĔTHORN3ʱͳ Subtotal other revenues

˫3reg3ĔTHORN3Ĝ˩

Ccedil ― shyocircocirc

shyocirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ʌƊntildedž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as a before-tax credit

ʌƊntilde

3ʌdž1ťGntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊntilde

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGʌ|b3ntildeƱ˚

ugrave3otildeĜHĝ otildeĜaRZ

n3ʱͳoͿG4ˬOtildeşampF

3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ

82

|b3PdlOz4aRZn1

DGʌƊntilde1ɥHGƕ)aR

Zn1ťEgraveOacuteaRZn3eacute

ƀ3˹ʌͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3

ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜaRZnG

G4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3

ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ

4_Ƹ-Gʌdž4Ĵ

ʌ13gtɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ

|-40Ϳ ʌƊƔdž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave AringΆUgraveČͿ Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as an after-tax deduction (eg depreciation)

ʌƊƔ

3ʌdž1ļ+ntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊƔ

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGYacute˖ʌdžH

ĝ otildeĜaRZn3ʱͳoͿ

G4ˬOtildeşampF3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ|b3Pdl

Oz4aRZn1DGʌƊƔ1ɥ

HG3ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜa

RZnGG4aRZn

ƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-G

ˣmiddotʇKƾ4_Ƹ-G

ʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥHGƕ

)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront cash investment subsidy

aRZnszligiquest1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ aRZnƷ]bnʱͳ1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml-3Ƚė˃ ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKǁGamp mZ-ɥė˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

shyl Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

kW-ʆHGƀʌͳ ȢƀǓƱD7ƀșŃuumlGş

|b3ʌͳ FITĔTHORNAringΆɯouml|b3PdlOzͿ Feed-in tariff revenue (eg production based incentives)

FIT G4ɯouml|b3PdlOz1DGĔTHORN

ż4aRZn3]bnK

31˞ȨHGŀccedilǓƱ1

ŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞKdivideampOacute

ouml3źľEgraveȉKdivideGľĜA

G

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐɱɥKŐampƀƄ

1ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǨCcedilœǛiacuteƄKɥ

GĴoPkʗͿ4ƀ3ǘOacuteAring

$HƀK Ś0

AͿKTHORNoumlG FITǕʘǴ Feed-in tariff policy period

FIT G4ɯ˚ugraveǓƱJHGʱǨ

aRZn1ƦŚHGʪȽɱƕŎǴ

K0ʜı3Ǵɮ0H5 FIT3ǓƱ|Aɮ0)Gė˃Ɵ

83

GFIT ǕʘǴ3Ĝ˩OacuteK1THORNoumlG

ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž Production-based before-tax credits

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b30J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊntilde

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊntilde|

b-aRZn1ɥH

G

aRZn3ʌǓƱntilde1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGɯouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿƕ)aRZn1ťEgraveOacuteņaRZneacuteƀ3˹ʌ

ͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteK

ĖGćɜaRZnGG

4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDz

ucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gt

ɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40

Ϳ ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž3ǕʘǴ Production-based before-tax credit policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHGǴ

3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɯ|b3ʌƊƔdž Production-based after- tax deductions

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b0J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊƔ

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊƔ|

b-aRZn1ɥHG

aRZn3ʌǓƱƔ1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKĖGćɜaRZnGG4

aRZnƯDzʿĝƀƄ3ʌdžKDzucirc

1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥ

HGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ɣɤļɵ3džʌƊƔͿ

ǕʘǴ Production-based after- tax deductions policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHG

Ǵ3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power bonus

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKEumlGamp

3ĽŌ kWh

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƄʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWh

źľEgraveȉ˯Ǯ Market price certificates

źľG4Ǖƃ3Ǖʘ1D)

ˬŚHampQOoyM

3aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ

3ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kW_4ɮ0Gźľ-0J(ěʍ3źľEgraveȉ-Ϳłamp3˯

Ǯ3ȼĜdivideſĹźľEgraveȉKTHORNoumlG

divideUgraveČ Accelerated Depreciation

OtildeĦ3ͳK˺middot˩D

7ʌťʘUgraveČG˩ɩ ěƀƄ3UgraveČͳ4ɤ3ˀɥƀǘ3eacuteǴD

FBBƀ|b-eacuteǴƷʱͳ

3ͼˬŚG UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

3m-4_aRZn3

EgraveOacuteKUgraveČGƀƄ$3UgraveČɞKŚʻ

GșƀƄsup2ȢƀȟͳKUgraveČGǞȰK

ɥGĴ-4_UgraveČ˩ɩEgrave

ͳKdegɡȖ˖Auml1D)˟ʏG

dj

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

yacuteYj Financial gap

aRZn3˺1ƛ˞

HGyacuteYj ʱ]bn˺]bnͿEƛ˞

HGǷeumlɲɞ93Ʒ1ƛ˞0ĔTHORN

PdlOzKƊampOacute ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave Levelized electricity generation cost

QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘ

1QOoyM-ɣɤH

amp kWh3ɠķ3ǡſĹ]bn

szlig3]bnKĠƷaumlƷ

ʰƾͿĔTHORNPdlOz˺]

bnĹʗĀĎEgrave4otildeƊɞͶ3ˀɥƀ

ǘKɥ˩ʙ

• 表紙13
• 要旨13
• 目次13
• 第1章 7ヶ国の風力発電の財務コスト13
• 第2章 デンマーク13
• 第3章 ドイツ13
• 第4章 オランダ13
• 第5章 スペイン13
• 第6章 スウェーデン13
• 第7章 スイス13
• 第8章 米国13
• 付録A 変数および用語解説13

vii

711 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 712 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 72 u13Ct) 60 721 ƶrƽŊƻ 722 ĴrƽŊƻ 73 Ct)McpY

61

731 GKUĮƛ 732 copyăĂbBXLa 733 ƔDdQ^ 73 63

| 8 N 65

81 NCtf 65 811 ƊETHƬŊƻƻƬŒĘŎĦ 812 copyąŢ=mMmSlt] 82 N 2008Wu13Ct) 66 821 ƶrƽŊƻ 822 ĴrƽŊƻ 823 ƽŊƻŊƻGKU 824 copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt] 825 ƔDdQ^ 83 NCt) 73

A Rr 76

viii

L5

ordm 1-1 ƽŊƻGKU ordm 1-2 ƔDdQ^ī6copy=mMmSlt]amp36ŊƻGKUŐĭ ordm 1-3 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14ŊƻƻƬǀƓżĐưǁ9sup2űĞ ordm 1-4 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14divideƖGKU9sup2űĞ ordm 1-5 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14Ƥƚųugraveƕ9sup2űĞ ordm 1-6 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14ƖƭƐƥGKU9sup2űĞ ordm 1-7 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14Ĥntildeƃū9sup2űĞ ordm 1-8 shyfrac14xƃGKU[hbpN LCOEacircƼ ordm 2-1 Tm`pEƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 2-2 TmsectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 2-3 Tm`pEƢŨGKUGKUƨcTj ordm 2-4 Tm`pEcopyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 3-1 V=RTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 3-2 V=RƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 3-3 V=RƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 4-1 AhmOTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 4-2 AhmOsectĺFpKĮƛordm ordm 4-3 AhmOƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 5-1 K_=mTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 5-2 ƅĈƭKCpathornř ordm 5-3 UacuteAacuteA^Igmamp136ĔŮǀUacuteAacuteĠǂAgraveEgraveƭǁ ordm 5-4 ƻyenUacuteAacuteamp136ƽŊƻETHƬǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 5-5 YacuteČƻ^pjĠAumlŀTHORNYacutefrac34ǀ2003Dž2009THORNǁ ordm 5-6 2008THORNampƊŵ7ƽƙH=LƋ ordm 5-7 K_=m133+sectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 5-8 K_=mcopy133+ƽŊƻąŢ=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 6-1 KgtpTmTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 6-2 KgtpTmƽŊƻGKU ordm 6-3 KgtpTmƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 7-1 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 7-2 K=KƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ ordm 7-3 K=KƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 8-1 Ŧfrac14THORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 8-2 Ŧfrac14133+sectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 8-3 Ŧfrac14copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ

ix

5

ƀ ES-1 ƶrƽŊƻfrac14 LCOEǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-1 ƽŊƻ^lJEUƖĚdivideƖGKUƃū ƀ 1-2 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻoumlſŋ[hbpNǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-3 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻƔ[hbpNǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-4 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻ LCOE FGǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-5 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEUoumlſŋ[hbpN ƀ 1-6 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEUƔ[hbpN ƀ 1-7 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEU LCOE133+ FG ƀ 1-8 aacuteŀ LCOEĊIJĮƛ ƀ 2-1 Tm`pEƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (MW) ƀ 2-2 Tm`pEƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW) ƀ 2-3 ƓżĐưampiquest FIT9deg06Z]ƿlpNŏatildeŊƻħETHƬʼn6 4ƽƙŐNtildeŋ

ƀ 2-4 ƓżĐưampiquest FIT9deg0Z]ƿlpNŏatildeŊƻħETHƬʼn6 4ƽƙŐNtildeŋ ƀ 2-5 Tm`pEƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 2-6 Tm`pEƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 2-7 Tm`pEƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ƀ 2-8 2007THORN 2008THORNTm`pEamp136ƽŊƻ LCOE0 ƀ 3-1 V=RŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-2 V=RTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-3 V=RƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 3-4 V=RƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 3-5 V=RƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 3-6 V=RűĞ0 ƀ 4-1 AhmOŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-2 AhmOĪsup2THORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-3 AhmOƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 4-4 AhmOƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 4-5 AhmOƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 4-6 AhmOűĞ0 ƀ 5-1 K_=mŬŜƊŵƬ (GW) ƀ 5-2 K_=mTHORNưOgraveƬ (GW) ƀ 5-3 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 5-4 K_=mƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 5-5 K_=mƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 5-6 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEU0 ƀ 6-1 KgtpTmŬŜƊETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-2 KgtpTmTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-3 Lillgrunden^lJEU ƀ 6-4 KgtpTmƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 6-5 KgtpTmƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 6-6 KgtpTmƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

x

ƀ 6-7 KgtpTműĞ0

ƀ 7-1 K=KŬŜƊETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-2 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-3 ƖƭƐƥGKUƈţ

ƀ 7-4 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 7-5 K=KƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 7-6 K=KƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

ƀ 7-7 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEU0

ƀ 8-1 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-2 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-3 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 8-4 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 8-5 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]

ƀ 8-6 Ŧfrac14űĞ0

1

Aring 1Auml 7Ozuumljfrac14dividearingm-1

11

2009 ƀȚŵĜ (EU) 4Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşKǝamp1 10163 MW divideʟĴ-4 9994 MW Kdivideamp (EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)3 2009ƀ1GˬOtildeş3ŀdivide1DFͶoumlɯ4 EU-4ǰņ3ʟĴ-4ʖ 2frac143ǝamp0Ʌ0)G(EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)ɪɱ1AsectĀɎʥǃaeligethȿĀʂɗǛ3ŘszligIgraveBŘŚAEligʬ3ĪͲ)ampǘ3ɡɦ1DFͶoumlɯ3˞40)G szligɪ-ͶoumlɯɯKŮ-Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bnCcedilɓŝ10)Gė˃

ƟAGͶoumlɯ3ƷŞ4ͶoumlɯƯ3PygP]bn1aRZn3ɯ˩ɩ1ĕF

)ampǨɏEȣɱʄ0ʀ˾Kƾ)GH4ͶoumlɯɯaRZn3ˬOtilde]bnſĹͶKǣ

Ƞ-ʀG-GE-F=ampͶoumlɯ3Ńuumlˊ1Ū0ɗǛ]bnEsectĀɎ

ʥAǃaelig0E-G3D0ijDz3ɚƙG1AͶoumlɯ3]bn463Ĵ3

-AaRZn1=ampěĴņɮ0)FǷʃʐ-43ɏ1ɒɏKƎG

12 frac34frac12sup2

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)ampǘŅ3Ȓƭ˞ʥK˰EgraveHE3]bn3ȵHaRZnǴszligiquest-ŃĀGKDŽGƛ

˞G3aRZn-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnK˷ǥȣGamp3˞0ɂŚćfrac14ĹʗĀɯ

ĎEgrave (LCOE) Kȏ˪ampLCOE 4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3PygP]bn3Ĝ˩OacuteKɠķ1otildeƊƀɯouml1ļ+ĹʗĀampOacute-GLCOE4ɮ0Gˤɏ1ʑ)ampěʍ3ǞȰBưȰKɥ˩ʙG-GǷĽġ-4HE3ˡɏD7Ni3(ș`pU˩ɩȰƄyacuteX

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GDFacirciquestɱ1˧5ǷĽġǮ3 LCOE ccedilǿʫȁ4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴatildeƷŞěɥampmǞȰKɥěˇ3aRZn3K˺GbrvbarAring13Ĵecirc3yacute]bnK˘ampA3-GɫƧ

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3Ǔaelig1GccedilǿʫȁK˘1G3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʣ]bn3˰Egrave1divideěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ

aRZn3ƯDzʿeumlɥ-GĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3PdlOzK˷ǥ˽Ĵ-ɣ G]bn˞ʥ3

KǥE1G ǷĽġǮ-4= LCOE KȒƭG]bn˞ʥKʞć1˷ǥș1ǷaRZn3-ɯHampb

jo`nm1˷ǥGěđdivideĴENjAEligHampmg1ļ+đɔbKŚʻ˽Ĵ1aacute

Gȣ3PnKǥE1GěĴ3ĎEgrave˞ʥKđɔbȣͶoumlɯ3 LCOE 3ŸɮKɣ GĎįKǥE1Gș3dZ`-4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEdegǯɱǞȰKʞć1˷ǥͶouml

ɯ3ĹʗĀĎEgraveK˩ʙGș1đɔb-Śʻamp]bn˞ʥ1ļ+LCOELJŚOacute3K˷ǥɥGǞȰ31D) LCOE ŃJ)GKś˯GǰƔ3ʒ-ěđdivideĴ3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3]bn˞ʥK=˷ǥGsup2ǷĽġǮ3ȑ˞-G

2

13 uumljfrac14divideAElignp[

131 -1UacuteIgrave

Ͷoumlɯ3]bn˞ʥ4ǷƷ]bnʰƾD7˺]bn-GHEě

1ěʍ3]bn˞ʥĠ=HGǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampIuml3]bn˞ʥ4Uograve A1ʆF-G ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ņͳ3ǷƷKƛ˞$3Ȓƭ˞ʥ4Ͷ-0ŅʍŅȓ-G

Ugrave 1-1 1ʆD1Ʒʱͳ3ʢ 75Ͷ3]bn-FȟF4˘1=ampD1ʡʭʡļʅˬʹ0E71ƈˬ1G]bn-GHE3]bn4oPkmZbPˏĴ33m

g1ļ+GǑĐ]bn4aRZnŐǨ1ʄIgrave3]bnKƎeacute3ǷƷ1ĠG

KʻyacutemacrGĴAG

Ugrave 1-1 uumljfrac14divideBL0+ccedilyenccedil-1UacuteIgrave

ʱ]bn1ĈGotildeĜͿ reg3]bn1żĈGotildeĜͿ ͶŶľɀͿ

ʡʭʡ ļʅ

ȥˬOtilde ĵĸ

yacute]bn ƈˬ

]^gn

68-84 2-10 1-9 1-9 1-5 1-5 1-5 1-3

ndashndashndash 35-45 20-25 10-15 5-10 5-10 5-10 5-10

ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

ʰƾ4Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥ-ż4IgraveʚɡD7ŚǴɱIgraveŗɏȏ^wbŋʢ

)ampijŚĠ=HGŃuuml1Ġ=HG34ˊ1˩ɩɱG4˩ɩń3IgraveŗɏȏBĦordfnj3]bnʗ

-GHE3]bn4ƀƄ1D)ɮ0GampaRZnǴK Xj`y3ȵHŚ

Gsup3Ś˟ʏFK˖ŅͶoumlɯaRZn-4ƀ3ɗǛ˞-Fƕ)

ʰƾƀ]bn3ņĄKĈG10G3oumlźľ-4oumlʡʭ^wb1macrɣ Gɑ

ucircouml˚Ugrave]bn03]bnͶoumlɯaRZn-ƛ˞10GľĜG LCOE3ņccedilKĈG3yacute]bn-GͶoumlɯaRZnƈˬ3ļɵ0GyacuteȒ3ʍ͵0E

71macrGOumlD7Ƿ3Ȓƭ˞ʥAĴ1D)˒ɮ0G=amp$H1ťǴƒ-Geumlɲ1

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Gyacute]bnʱͳ1ƐG x 1-14Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3˟ʏF1Ġampěʍ3]bn˞ʥƷ]bnƀʰƾyacuteŃǘʗͿ

KʆampA3-GͶoumlɯaRZn3ǰʨɱɣɤə4ouml-GampLCOEKƀɯouml-ĹʗĀGƛ˞Gɯouml4Ͷ3əɡɱɚƙD7ɚŚ3aRZn^Pn3ͶɅ3ɚƙ1ŷęHG

132 s_N3N9A

ouml4ͶoumlɯaRZnƯDzʿłGĩĦ-oumlźľ4Ĵ1D)ɮ0G3aRZn4Ͷ

oumlɯ1G]bn1ɒɏKƎěoumlźľ1GĔTHORNPdlOzK=ampA3-Gɯ

1DGĔTHORN1divideěʍ3PdlOzKAuml)Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKʄś1ĮĔ-GD1GH

E3PdlOz14ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ(FIT)ɣɤ1Ɯ ampʌͳdžaumlɣė˃SrY˯ǮG4reg3VqcG

3

x 1-1 uumljfrac14divide-1 ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

133 icirc

Ͷoumlɯ1Gɶ3Ņ=žĀHEHE4ĔTHORNB]bn3˰Egrave1Ġ0

HE4ɯƴ˗3oacuteșɱƐ1GńƟG4ʇmiddotɱɥ-Gˊ1aumlɣė˃SrY3ƴ˗4

ƕǽĺɅ3ƴ˗1ȣńƟ3Ɛż1Ū0IEA3 ldquoRenewable Energy Costs and Benefits for Society (RECaBS)rdquo aRZn-4ǥƟ3ǞȰKɥƕǽĺɅaumlɣė˃SrYɅKȣɯ3]bnEacuteɲKLJŚG (RECaBs 2007)ReCABS3ǞȰ˼1DH53ccedilǿ14ș3 53ńƟĠ=HG

ȥNtildeŃuumlɁŜucircȁWbɚ1 CO2D7 CH4Ϳ reg3ņȥȩȃɅSOxNOxD7ʠőͿ ʡʭʡoumlPy93divide]bn oumlʬ˺ǙͶ3şZajnˮȲ 41DGȿͳʗͿ

ɗǛAEligʬ3ŘszligIgraveɗǛTHORN3ĴatildeɅ-3degɥ HE3ńƟ1divideͶoumlɯ4ɗǛ3ȸB$H1sup1ɗǛEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ŷęH0Ͷoumlɯƴ˗

93ƷbZ4ĀʂɗǛ1DGɯƴ˗3bZyMPɮ0GHEszlig3ɚƙ1DFͶoumlɯ

ƴ˗reg3ɯƴ˗3EgraveOacuteNjȊ1G˞0ɚƙɣ GǷʃʐ4$3ȣ˰EgraveK˱gtampA3-

40

134 LCOEGKaacute

UhSrYʃʐdg (ECN) AcircƭampXj`ym4ǷaRZn1G

ˮȲ 4 şZajn (capacity credit) ʡʭŘŚƄ1ƤƐK0ʜı-Ͷoumlɯ1D)ƕǽĺɅHʹnj

EHGKʆȣɞAring5 şZajn 303ľĜǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ 1 GW1ťƕǽĺɅK 03GWȿEG-GşZajn1G˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

4

LCOEyacuteYj (FG) 3˟ʏF3ļɵ0)G3 ECNm4otildeƊXj`ym-Ǝeacute4Uh1Gaumlɣė˃SrY3˚ugrave3ɯAEligʬĽŌK˩ʙGamp1AcircƭHampA3

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G34ɯƯ^PcǨszligːǨˀɥƀǘƷ]bnʰƾaRZn3˺

3ɚƙ)ampmĀ3amp3vg0E71Ɓʜ0vg-GěĴD7==0ˠ

iacuteiquestiacute13mKɥ-$3ȗ˃ŅɥƟǔīHGAring5Xj`y

mKǔ˨ͶoumlɯaRZn3ěˠiacuteiquestiacute1ƕ==0ƴ˗ɱyacuteɱvg1ɥ-

GD1amp3D0Ȅ0m4Ʒ]bnʱͳ3˩ʙ3gt0Eěʍ3ɥ3ɚƙByacuteưȠ

0E71ĴQOoyM3PdlOzK˷ǥG-˞-G

135 GK|yenfrac12-N3B

Xj`ybjo`nKɥͶoumlɯ3]bnK˳ʧ1˩ʙG$3szligvgKUograve A1ʆ3bjo`nm4 6 3Z`n-ȒƭHǰeacute3 3 3Z`n4ɚŚ3Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3˩ʙ1ƛ˞0˳ʧƥĽKNjAEligGamp3A3-G ǰeacute3Z`n4ƀșŃuuml3013ŃǘKŚGA3-GH14aRZn3ɚƙƷ]b

nʱͳǑĐ]bnʱͳĎȲ2szligːǨ1ɔEampǨ]bn˩ʙ3˩ɩťǴĠ=HGƷ]b

nǑĐ]bn4ěʍ3Ȓƭ˞ʥ3ʱͳ˘-GH4ś3]bn3Ÿɮ3ŅĴȣ3

amp3ƥĽKNjAEligHG=amp3Z`n1DFPyŃuuml]bnŀK˷ǥGampͿOumleuml

ɲɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞ0E71OumlǷȣɞaRZn1macrGyacutebZKēǧGampͿ)

ampěʍ3yacuteŃǘKŚG-GE13Xj`ym4ĴBŵ3ȰlaquoʌKʾƬampA

3-G ƀșŃuuml13Z`n14ʰƾĸdegʡʭ]bn)ampƀijŚŃuuml-ȒƭHG

ěʍɶĠ=HFHEK˳ccedil͵ěĴ-ȣ-GD1G=amp-ȥǛBʧ

ȪŚ˞įŋʢ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnʗͿKŚʻG ʖ 33Z`nǕʘ13-4ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT)ʌͳdž$3reg3PdlOzKȏ˪G

3m3U`ȿʌ3EacuteɲKaRZn3Xj`y1ŚampFɑiacuteĎȲ31

ampFG-G3THORNoumlvgK$3ș3Z`n1AumlͶoumlɯaRZn3 LCOE Bɯ3yacuteYj (FG) KȪŚGTHORNouml―aeligouml13Z`n4$3ʫȁ3 LCOE FGK˘ampA3-˩ʙ-ɥampŃǘK=Gś3Xj`y3˩ʙ4aRZn3Xj`y

13D7LCOEXj`y13Z`n-˖

136 LCOE FGYacuteEgrave

LCOE FG4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEXj`yK˩ʙampʫȁ-GampĞɶ3ʌƊƔǷeumlɲɞKLCOE FG3otildeƊɞɥGraquo LCOE FG14ě3˩ʙ1ɮ0GXj`y3ȵHKĠGH1sup21ȑ˷G ż3ľĜLCOE3Ľġ14ƷǓaeligƀ]bnȿEgraveUgraveČD7ƸampotildeƊɞAumlJHGƕ)

3Ȃʩgtatilde1G LCOE 3˩ʙOacute4ƷǓaelig3ƾccedilotildeĜszligǴ3otildeƊʌƊƔXj`yʱͳKeȜģɠķEgraveOacute (NPV) G31ƛ˞0ɣɤCcedilœeumlɲŚʻHGLCOE3˩ʙ-4ɯG4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɚecirc1ɥHGPdlOzE3ĔTHORN3Xj`yKʾƬ0

ECN3 LCOE˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

ĎȲ2 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4ǑĐ]bnKaRZnƈʝǴ1ʄIgraveKĴʻyacutemacrGľĜ3gt3]b

nKĠamp ĎȲ3 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4szlig3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKɑiacute13sup3Śamp=Feumlɥė˃0szlig3ȿʌ3ơƣKřszlig1ĖEH

GD0Xj`yăccedil1œķG-G

5

H41ɠķ FG3˩ʙ-4Ͷoumlɯ1ijDz3ɯɱPdlOz3Xj`yfynYacute˖Ʒʌļɵ3ƷugraveƭʗͿKʾƬG3Śʻ1ļ+brvbarś FG1D)ěĴ3 LCOEɯ0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ɱPdlOz1DFśɠHampeumlɲ3K˘G

ECNm3 FG˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

˫3D1ʌƊƔ3ƀXj`y14ouml3łĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3˚ugraveƱƮD7P

dlOzƀʰƾȽeumlƢǓƱ0E71yacuteľ3ȿEgraveUgraveČeumlődž3ʌƊƔͳ

E3Xj`yĠ=HG x 1-24LCOEƖEHampĔTHORNoumlźľĔTHORNFITAEligʬĽŌʗͿPdlOzD7yacuteYj

3EcircKʆampA3-G3IJ1ʆD1FGOacuteȜ3ľĜ4aRZnɯʿ3 LCOEK31ƛ˞0ĔTHORNƖEH0)ampƧģ-F3ľĜ4 LCOE KG3ăccedil0ĔTHORNƖEHampKʆĨG

x 1minus2 aringmH7Bmacrs_N3N9AampgtKQ-1Agravedeg

ʌƊƔ3Xj`yt

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ ndash

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

FG =

1 ndash ʌɞ times ƀʰƾ t ndash ʌɞ times euml t + ʌyacute3ȿEgraveUgraveČ t

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ +

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

LCOE =

6

14 rkzoumlRuumljfrac14divide-1

șʛ-4 Ĵ3aRZn3ǎugraveKGĴatildeƷŞ1)3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKđdivideamp 7Ĵ3Ĵecirc1ʆH14 ECN3mǞȰ˼KɥG˞0Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3ŃǘKŅĴ-ȣG1DFěĴ3ccedilFͶoumlɯaRZn3|bP]bnǥʄ10Geumlɥ

ė˃0mgEHGampȳͶoumlɯ3]bn4˳ʆ0ĽġHamp]bnmg3

Ūǘ3^KĠG

15 vQ5otildeordm

3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnƟ˃0E71yacutemgszligiquest3ȜʄDzucircƟKaeligǽGF˯ǥD

ampmgfb4ŅʍŅȓ-FĽġHampmg34ĴD7mgfb1DFɮ0)G

Aring5ĽġHamp]bn3mg42008 ƀ3ͳ-˘ampɠķEgraveȉK˘G3ŚEgraveȉǥʄ-0brvbarAringAG=ampsup21ǀGvgA2008 ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlaRZnK˘amp3A3-Gś14 2008ƀntilde1ɯȲHǓƱJHampbrvbarAringKĠGė˃ƟGmgEHGampampɉķɱ0ɿɹKIcircȜG-0)ampE1 IEA Task264ěĴ3deg˘ɱ013aRZnK˘KƧIJampA3-GͶoumlɯ3ś3]bn4^PnaRZn1D)ɮ0G

ƕ)sup23mg4ěĴ3szligˊɱɛȯ˷ǥ3amp3gt1ʆampA3-3ɏ1ɫƧ-G

16 tzGKLCOErmicroQ1

Ͷoumlɯ3Ĵecirc3]bnļǷampaRZn-4đɔb13Ĥ8ͿȣHG

3đɔb4ěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3deg˘ɱ0Ȓƭ˞ʥK˘A3-ƴ˗ɱvgaRZn3ɚƙƟ

˃Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bnʰƾʗͿyacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞ

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KǓǎGĕFʩgt4Ĵ1D)ɮ0GampͶoumlɯǕʘBPdlOzAĠ0ƕ)đɔ

b-4 LCOE3˩ʙʫȁ3gtK˘ʆG Ĵecirc3ƴ˗ɱvgKUgrave 1-21ʆĎȲ4đɔb-43ěvgKszlig3Ĵ1Ga

RZn3ˬOtildeş3divideſĹ˩ʙGđɔb3ƴ˗ɱvg3OacuteA3˘1ʆF

2008 ƀ3ˬOtildeşȣɱņ)ampbQRmʟĴ$HH 98MW85MWͿ-ƄĜņ0)G7 Ĵ- 2008 ƀ1śǟHampdeg˘ɱ0aRZnKŅŪ0FAēǧ-GD1đɔb3divide14Ĵatilde3ʱSrYş-40aRZn3ˬOtildeşKɥGđɔb3aRZ

nȒʝ14==0Ƹ˂G$3ƸĴecirc3 LCOE G4 FG ˩ʙ1ƐG40ɏKƿǐG34˞-GđɔbNjAEligG342008 ƀ3Ĵecirc3ʫȁKȣGamp3ˊɱ0ɏ10 Ugrave 1-3 4Ĵecirc3yacutevgKʆampA3-Gě3yacutevg1szlig3Ĵ3ʼnOacuteKđɔ

b3OacuteɥGYacute1ampD1đɔb3˩ʙOacuteĴecirc3 LCOE B FG 3ʫȁ1ƐG40

ECN m-4otildeƊɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞKɥGǷdivideſĹ]bn (WACC) A3˘1ʆGWACC 4˜ǘ3yacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞĴ3ʌɞͿKyacute]bnszligiquestK˷ǥGćɂŚļɆ1ĠG Ugrave 1-41ĴecircD7đɔb3 LCOE FG3ʫȁKʆ3ʫȁ142008ƀ3 LCOEyacuteYj

3˩ʙʫȁKĠG3ʫȁ4Ĵecirc3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnszligiquestK˘ampʆampA3-G3Ͷ

oumlɯaRZn-Aś3 LCOE4ľƯaRZn1D)ɮ0)G

ĎȲ4 Ugrave 1-33mĀ3sup3Ś3amp3THORNoumlmg43gt-ʆG1ɫƧraquo LCOE FG3ʫȁ4

ʟo3Ǟ-ʆG

7

Ugrave 1-2 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divideOslashfrac12JFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h b

P bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b Ͷ^Pc(MW) ĎȲ5 23 20 30 20 24 20 17 21

Ͷļǘ 7 5 5 15 41 6 50 34 szligːǨ 2695 2260 2200 2150 2600 1750 3066 2628 ƷĎȲ6(eurokW) 1250 1373 1325 1250 1591 1790 1377 1449 ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 00 15 00 00 16 00 00 06 reg3]bn

euroMWhͿ 3 0 10 3 0 0 0 1

ʰƾijŚͿ(euroMWh) 000 4633 3139 000 001 000 860 629

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 12 0 13 20 11 31 5 11

njʰƾʱͳ

(euroMWh) 12 21 28 20 11 31 7 13

đɔb divide 61 38 57 114 366 46 318 NA

Ugrave 1-3 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14dividearingmJFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h bP

bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 55 50 70 50 50 60 50 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 110 95 150 100 120 70 75 100 Oumlyacute3otildeĜͿ 80 70 80 80 87 70 0 80 Ƿ3otildeĜͿ 20 30 20 20 13 30 100 20 ǴƀͿ 13 13 15 15 20 20 15 15 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 250 298 255 300 280 210 389 280

WACCͿ 52 56 60 59 47 49 75 49

Ugrave 1-4 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divide LCOE FGyuml2008Ā

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

bPb 120 (167) oPk 5 (7) Uh 94 (131) ʟĴ ndash1 (ndash1) oPk 85 (118) bPb ndash1 (ndash1) bP 83 (115) Uh ndash3 (ndash4)

bQRm 67 (93) bP ndash3 (ndash4) ʟĴ 65 (91) mZ ndash6 (ndash8)

mZ 61 (85) bQRm ndash8 (ndash11) đɔb 68 (95) đɔb NA

Ugrave 1-41ʆampD1Ĵecirc3 LCOE4bPb3 120MWh167oMWhͿĎȲ7EmZ3 61MWh85oMWhͿ=-Gđɔb3 LCOE4 68MWh95oMWhͿLJŚGěĴ3 LCOE ɮ0)G34Ĵecirc3ɯoumlʰƾǓaeligƷ]bn˺ǞȰ31DGA3-Gș1ěĴ3 LCOE1HE3vgĒltƐKDŽG

ĎȲ5 DF˳Ͷoumlɯ]bnccedilǿ14gɷƑtzſĹͶ)amp˞0vgKĠSrYAElig

ʬ1Gǥʄ0sup3ŚKĠG10G1ʆampLJŚOacute4ǷǮ1ʆampsup2ń3ƴ˗BĴşǦ1ȣ-GD

1ș3ćʣ0shyȓ3gtKʆA3G ĎȲ6 Yacute1ampD1Ʒ]bnD7aRZnƈˬ4 2008ƀ3A3sup3ŚGś14Ʒ]bnͶ3

ɯȲʗͿ14 2008ƀsup2ntilde3ǘŒĠ=HGė˃ƟG ĎȲ7 ɐǯn 1o139-njʙ

8

17 LCOEzoacuteplusmnecirc

ŅĴccedilǿ-4ěĴ1G 43˞0]bnvg3 LCOE93ƐKDŽ)ampĴecirc1 LCOEKLJŚ63]bnvgKĴecirc3Oacute$3reg3vgKđɔb3Oacuteamp3ccedilǿ14

|bPɂŚļɆđɔb3vgOacuteͿȣampĴecirc3THORNoumlvg3ƐKegraveFamp

3ŅĴccedilǿ-ȏ˯amp˞0vg14ɯoumlƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnKĠ

ampș13ʫȁKszlig3Ĵ3-ȣamp AringěĴ3szligːǨ3 LCOE 93ƐKx 1-3 1ʆ3IJ4 3 3ǥʄ0˱bKȣ

ampA3-G=Ɍˎ3Ȍ[y4Yacute1Ugrave 1-4 -ʆampěĴ3 LCOE K˘A3-szligTHORNoumlvgKĴecirc1ʆGș1ʳ4đɔbKʆA3-|bP3 LCOEK 68MWhszligvgKđɔb3OacuteG=ampʲˎ3jn4ȼĜbKʆA3-szligːǨKĴecirc3Oacute

$3reg3vgKđɔb3OacuteG x 1-31-6 4$HHɯouml˫đɔͿƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnK˘G

Ĵecirc3 LCOEɌˎ3Ȍ[yͿđɔb3 LCOEʳͿ43IJ-AŚ˞0]bnvg4ěIJ-ɮ0)FHKV-ccedilFǦʆG

x 1-3 rmicroQ1tzfrac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀkwIumlsect

x 1-4 rmicroQ1tzccedil-1kwIumlsect

9

x 1-5 rmicroQ1tzigraveeacuteETHaeligkwIumlsect

x 1-6 rmicroQ1tzccedilntildeacirciacute-1kwIumlsect

ěĴ3˞0Ͷoumlɯ]bn3vg34sup23D1˷ǥ-GampH1E0Ϳ frac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀăszligːǨ3Ĵ1DG14==0aacuteD7Iumlecirc3˞įƐ

GAring5oPk-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ1D)aRZnɯ4ͶɅ3 Ć1ƹB

EHGmZ-4Ĵatilde3ǵɯ3^PnKɯGntilde1Ͷ3ʹˬ˩1D)Ǡœ3Ͷ

oumlɯ^Pn3ˬOtildeǭǝEumlHGľĜAF$3ʫȁĴatilde3eacuteǴ3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn3

2008ƀ1ˬOtildeǭǝ3ť0)GbPb-4ű3NZdbEHGamp2008ƀ1śǟHampɯaRZn3ǘ4ŚHampA310)GʟĴ14Uumlccedil1ˍō0ͶɅ

KDzGaRZn^PnǘŅGʳ93NZdbeumlɥė˃ɞEHGamp

aRZnɥ^PnȪŚ14FFľĜ1D)4ɯ3aeligoumlƶiacuteKGKƖ00)

GǞbQRm-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ4Ƿʃʐ3reg3Ĵ4ĪͲ10)0Uh-4

FIT3ĽŌ3szligːǨ3ǰņOacute-ȪEHGampǰ0^PnKɯampFǰǝ3ƴ˗KɥampFGyacutePdlOzŪ00)Gė˃ƟG

ccedil-1ăƷ]bn4Ĵ1D)˒ɮ0GmZ-AUh-AszligːǨ1ļ+

ugraveƭ3 FITĽŌͶ3Ƹ1Ɛƕ)aRZn3Ʒ]bn1ƐGmZ-4szligːǨampF3˚ugrave3ͳKǰņ1Gampņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶUacuteYacute

HGǞUh-4˚ugraveKszligːǨ3ʜıatildeGampDF]bn3ŘͶ

10

ƴ˗ˡˡHGmZ-4oumlʡʭ93ʡ]bn)ampͶoumlɯaRZn3

ŨTHORN]bn34aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZn3So_oumlȸʿͿ

ǓƱ)G$3ampmZ3ʡ]bn4Ʒ]bn1Ġ=H0bPo

Pk$3reg33Ĵ-4ʡ]bn$3reg3ʡʭŀƍ]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿǓ

Ʊ)Famp)H4Ʒ]bn1ĠEHGbQRm14Ʒ]bn3ethȿ

ė˃10GD0ćʣĀHampʡʭʡưGoPk-4ͶoumlɯͶɅ3 Ć

1ƼņampʫȁɯbrvbarȐʿ4$3˚UgraveưȠŅ3aRZn-gɷƑ3ņ0ͶK

DFľƯ1ˬʹGKƖ00)GƷ]bn4gɷƑD7tz3ǘOacuteņ

0GͿbPb-4ű3ͶoumlɯaRZnɥ^Pn93NZdb=ampˠ

ȕ3ʪȽKȘGampƷ]bn0)G ʟĴ-4ņˠȕ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥEacuteɲ4ɚ1Ͷ3THORN1EcircFɯȲˠȕ

ņ0G1HEgraveȉotildeƊHG˯ǥHGʟĴ3QOoyM4đɔbD

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3ơƣ40H4 2008ƀ3bQRm3ˬʹ]bnmampaRZnşȣŪ0)ampamp-ė˃ƟG

igraveeacuteETHaeligăěĴʆampʰƾ3mg4ʄśƟşǦ1Iacuteͱ-0ǘOacute-G

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ʰƾ4ƀŨTHORNHampņˠȕ0aRZn-4ſĹfrac120)GD-GʟĴ-4

YN~jZbzoG4ɯȗ3ĦKordfnjGǨǴǣG˯ƻAcedilEHF

ƕ)ĽġHGmg3ʰƾ4ũ˰EgraveHGė˃ƟGoPk-AOtildeĦ3ordfnj

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ƞŀampgjZbSZPlOyMPpbUacuteYacuteHampampʟĴ-4regĴDFAǷ]bn

0)G0J(gjZbSZPlO4żOumlDFAͿ=ampʟĴ-4Ouml1D

G˺1D)aRZn3ɅKʄIgraveampb-4aRZn-40Ȱlaquo|-

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b3 LCOEKx 1-71ʆ

11

x 1-7 rmicroQ1tzordfUacuteIgravekwIumlsect

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ƛ˞-GʾEHG

x 1-8 tzSUacute-1JFQ5 LCOEoslash

12

18 rkzacuteRuumljfrac14divide-1

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aRZn3ɯȐʿHKƺ0-G3ccedilǿ-ɥampm4aR

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ʢ 3000kW10Gx 1-71HE3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1˟ʏA)amp LCOEyacuteYjKʆ

Ugrave 1-5 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+fOslashfrac12JFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn aRZn3ɛȯ 2007ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF

ʓŶƀ 2007ƀ 2010ƀƔĄ ɚŚH ɯƯ^Pc(MW) 20 23 50

Ͷļǘ 60 90 12 szligːǨ 3350 3800 3700 Ʒ(eurokW) 3315 1883 3230

ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 0 0 0 reg3]bn(euroMWh) 11 0 0 ʰƾijŚͿ

(euroMWh) 149 0 123

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 0 24 0

njʰƾʱͳ(euroMWh) 44 24 33

ˀɥƀǘ 15 25 20

x 1-6 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+faringmJFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 45 65 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 120 112 150 OumlotildeĜͿ 50 26 70 ǷotildeĜͿ 50 74 30 ǴƀͿ 15 13 12 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 255 250 298

WACCͿ 79 92 77

Ugrave 1-7 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+f LCOEthornFG

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

Prinses Amalia 166 (231) oPkˊcurrenɂ NA oPkˊcurrenɂ 156 (217) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 6 (8) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 88 (122) Prinses Amalia 5 (7)

13

19 T LCOEYacuteEgravesup2

LCOE4==0ɶɱuumlȗD7˸ʿ3amp1˩ʙHGˊźȤǕʘȪŚʿƷŞaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿʗě3ɚŚ3qcKɄamp LCOE KeumlɥGamp) LCOE 1AumlJHGưȰ4ȓ-40LCOEK3ʋƄ˳LJŚGG43ʋƄ3sup3Śƛ˞4AumlɥG˩ʙǞȰ1D)==-FH LCOE 3ʫȁ1˒ƐG3ampecirc3 LCOE ˩ʙǞȰK=-3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECNmD7ǞȰťȣsup21˷ǥG Aring5ș˩ɩ`pU-4Ʒ]bn3ɠķOacuteD7ʇmiddotɱotildeƊɞKɥotildeFƊampƀ]bn3ſ

Ĺ1ļ+ćʣĀampdeg˘OacuteKɥ LCOE K˟ʏAGľĜG3Ni-4OumlǷȣɞOumlǷ]bnǴȰlaquoʌ)ampǥʄ0ɅʄIgraveǼacute3sup3Ś0H0$3degJF3ćʣ

0ǞȰ-4otildeƊɞLOacute3gtKɥF$H1D)yacuteưȠ3ɚƙKszlig˘GIEA 3Projected Costs of Generation Electricityrdquo (IEA2010) D7IEA World Energy Outlook 2009rdquo (IEA 2009) 43NiKɥFsup23Ɖ1DF LCOEK˩ʙG

3Ni-4IEA 4otildeƊɞKʇmiddotɱɅ]bn13˘G3]bn4ʇmiddotszligiquestɚŚ

3ƴ˗1ƷG1ƺ]bnK˘ (IEA2010)3ʇmiddotɱ˟ĸEIEA4otildeƊɞ 5Έ10KɥF5KȣɱŘŚɱ0ɢĿ1GOumlyacuteŰ˖bZ3frac12ƷŞeumlɥ-Gɞ1310K˒ʪȽɱƴ˗ɱbZD7EgraveȉbZ1ɷGƷŞ3Ʒ]bn13G (IEA2010)DFćʣĀampș˩ɩ`pU1DFTHORNoumlvg3ǘKǰũ1˳ʧƄ1D)ěʍ3ɯĺ3 LCOE KşǦ1ȣG-G H41 ɯȐʿ4 ECNm3D0Ƅ0Xj`ymKAuml)ɚŚ3aRZn

ě3 LCOE0E71ȜģɠķEgraveOacuteatildeĔɲɞȽǴ)ampreg3yacuteƿȔK˰EgraveG3m1˜ǘ3ƯDzʿ3ǥʄ0˺3ntildeNjǼacuteʌ3Ɛ$3reg3ĔTHORNG4]bn3ƐKĠ

GľĜAGǨ143mKɥegrave3ɉķɱ0]bn3ȵHK˰EgraveampFparaȐ3ɚŚ3

aRZn93ƷKė˃1GeumlɲƖEHGD0SrYEgraveȉKȪŚampFG(Harper et al 2007)3˳ʧ0ǞȰKɥampľĜƷ]bnBƀʪ-0ǘŅ3˞į LCOE 1ƐG10GaRZnƈˬ3ǰʨɱ0ȪŚȖ4ƷŞ1GampͶoumlɯ3ʮʯɱ0ˬʹKė˃1G]bn3OacuteKɡ˥

G14ƷŞ3ˡɏKɡ˥G˞-G Aring3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECN m4ƾccedilƷŞ1ƯŚ3Ƿeumlɲɞ (ROE) KIgrave˯aR

ZnȢ1 LCOEK˰EgraveGamp3Ƅ0Xj`ym-GYacute1ampD1ECN3Xj`ymKE1˳ʧ0A31G-ǷD7OumleumlőKƾ˺ȒKǥʄ1˘-

G=ampͶoumlɯ3]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏE˘-aRZnKGamp

3ĔTHORN3ȵH-ɸȡ0H50E0Ͷoumlɯ]bnK˟ʏG-G

110 LCOEYacuteEgraveocircicedilplusmnecirc

Ugrave 1-8 4otildeƊɞ LCOE ǞȰKȣampA3-GXj`yccedilǿ3ćʣ0ǞȰƄ0ǞȰ3ǞKɥ3otildeƊɞ1 LCOE K˟ʏFreg3egrave3]bnvgKě3đɔb1ɔEŚampE1HEʿ3ǞȰ1D)đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿKɣ GotildeƊɞK˘G

t=1Tsum Ʒ t + ʰƾ t + ɗǛ t + Ɏʥ]bn t + ǑĐ t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

LCOE =

t=1Tsum ɯouml t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

Ϳ

14

ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3ˡɏELdeg˘ɱ0otildeƊɞ4Ȥ3aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿG4ƷŞ3ˡɏ1ʑ

)ampotildeƊɞ3OacuteDFfrac120GtimesğGIEA2010 1DH5ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3otildeƊɞfrac120)Gɡɦ4bZŪǘ3ȤƷŞ-40ǘŅ3IumllaquoƷŞ1ccedilǗHGampɷGbZ˺]bn

Ū00Gamp-G$H1sup1ʇmiddotɱˡɏE3 LCOE 3˟ʏFAȤƷŞ3˟ʏFDFAfrac120Gtimesğ1G

Ugrave 1-8 icedil LCOEsup2plusmnecirc

ǞȰͽˡɏ ˡɏ ˺]

bn3Ʋ ɥ m

otildeƊɞ3

ʜı

otildeƊɞ3ʜı

1G LCOE

đɔb3

LCOEKɣ GotildeƊɞ

ș`pU ˩ɩ3ćʣ˩ʙ

agraveɱʇmiddotɱ ƷŞ3ˡɏ

otildeƊɞ1 ĠG IEA2010 5Έ10

53Έ70MWh

IEA3ǞȰͿ

95 IEA3ǞȰͿ

ƄXj`

yccedilǿ

aRZn ɯbrvbarȐʿG

4ȤƷŞ ǥʄ1Śʻ ECN2008 75Έ15

(ROE) 64Έ76

MWh 10

ECN3ǞȰͿ

reg3szlig3Ńǘ1đɔb3ntildeNjǼacuteKɥ Ƿccedilǿ-ĽġHamp ROE3ʜı1ļ+

Ugrave 1-8 1ʆD1(E3Ni-ALotildeƊɞ3 LCOE Oacute1˒ƐG95otildeƊɞ4ʇmiddot3ˡɏK˘ʞɬ0˩ʙȰKɥđɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿK˩ʙG31ƛ˞0Oacute-Gƕ)Ƿʃʐ3đdivide˽ĴĽġampmg1ļ+0E3otildeƊɞ4ǰņOacute1+4-F

IEA-43ʜıK 5Έ10GH4ʞɬĀampʇmiddotɱ˩ɩǞȰKɥƄXj`yưȰ3ordmOacuteKǥE1ampA3-G 1frac12Ǟ3otildeƊɞNjȊHampŽ3ǰAfrac12OacuteͿˊƷŞ3bK˘amp1ɥEHGƕ)

LCOEK˩ʙG14=ampͶoumlɯ3 LCOEKreg3Ʌ3 LCOEȣG14aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏG4DFƁoumlʡʭ|3ˡɏ3(E1ʑ)GKǥʄ1GėȘ-G

otildeƊɞ3Ƹ4$3ˡɏ1ťƜGdz=LCOEK˘ěʍ3ƉKɥGľĜ4ʑˆGˡɏotildeƊɞ$3reg3vg3OacuteKǥʄ1˥Gƛ˞HG

111 Iumlatilde

IEAWind Task263ʫȁELCOEĴ1D)ņɮ0)GJG33ƄĜ4ɯoumlƷɥ˺)ampě]bn3Ɛ1DGA3HGcurrenƦFĴŞ3 LCOE3Ÿɮ1ǰAƐamp34Ƿɱ0ͶȯG4Ͷ3ƴ˗shyȓ1ļ+currenɂHGɯouml-G=amp

ǷɱǓaeligD7ͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ǽacuteņɮ0GEźľoumlAͶoumlɯ3]bnszligiquest

1˒ƐGE1ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾAěĴ-˒ɮ0FH LCOE 1ņ1Ɛamp 63ɂŚļɆ-SrY3]bnszligˊK˘ LCOE 3Ɵ4ĴBɶɱ˸ʿ$3reg3eumlɥʿ3

-ćʣ0ȣ-GD1ƝJHGLCOE3ěʍ3˩ʙ3ˡɏE3D10HampKȜʄ1ɡ˥Gƛ˞GLCOE4ɪaacute-Aordfnjė˃0˩ʙ-A0IɚŚ3qc1ɥHGDzɲ-Eacuteeuml0k-Gƕ)ȣD7$3ʫȁ3˥14ɫƧGdz=

rOtildemiddot

Cory and Schwabe 2010 ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financial Variablesrdquo httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2009) ldquoThe Economics of Wind Energy A Report by the European Wind

15

Energy Associationrdquo March 2009 Available at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentspublicationsreportsEconomics_of _Wind_Main_Report_FINAL-lrpdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2010) ldquoWind in Power 2009 European Statisticsrdquo The European Wind Energy Association February 2010 Accessed at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentsstatistics100401_General_Stats_20 09pdf

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review and Comparative Analysisrdquo Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 Accessed at httpeetdlblgoveaempreports63434pdf

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2006) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2006rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2006weo2006pdf

IEA (2008) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2008rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2008weo2008pdf

IEA (2009) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2009rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgWbookshopaddaspxid=388

IEA (2010) ldquoProjected Costs of Generating Electricityrdquo 2010 Edition Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgpublicationsfree_new_DescaspPUBS_ID=2207

RECaBs (2007) ldquoRECaBs Interactive Renewable Energy Calculatorrdquo Renewable Energy Calculator Accessed August 2010 at httpwwwrecabsorg

Wiser R Bolinger M (2010) ldquo2009 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy August 2010 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs2009_wind_technologies_market_reportpdf

16

Aring 2Auml NDQ+

21 NDQ+uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ȑ˞0E71]bn3ɚƙKG-

4 2008 ƀ3D7ȳͶoumlɯƴ˗1GĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1ɒɏKƎG

211 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

2008ƀǶ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ĝ˩ 3179MW 2756MWȳ 423MWͿ-H4 2007ƀǶ3ˬOtildeş1ťʢ 1252000ƀ3ˬOtildeşDFA 32ŀdivideG2001ƀE 2008ƀ=-1ŀdivideampˬOtildeş3ʢĄǘ4ȳͶoumlɯ1DGA3-G2008 ƀ1ȳ-ƈˬ3ȳQOoyM4 3F(64 2009ƀ1řƭA64 2010ƀʈ1ŐGcurrenŚ-GˮȲ 5 x 2-1 1ʆD1ŨTHORN3Ƅ4Ǵ15EņJG2001ƀE 2003ƀ1

ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 725MW ŀdivideamp2004 ƀE 2007 ƀ=-4 8MW ŀdivideamp10H4 2003 ƀ1śǟHampaRZn3ǕɱǓǎ˩ɩņŽ1ȿͳHampʫȁ-GHK˚amp1 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampǝamp0ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFͶ3ƈˬǝamp1ȲɶHG10)amp2008ƀ3 FITŨTHORNƔ2010ƀ 7DZǶ=-1Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 280MWŀdivideG (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ1D)mZ3ʱoumlȸ3ʢ 20AEligʬHG

x 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

ˮȲ 5 Roslashdsand IIȳͶoumlɯƯ4 2010ƀ 8DZ1ŐG

17

mZ4ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ƀșɶȔKŚ0EU 3˞Ȩ1DH5mZ4 2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯ-ʱSrYȸ3 30Kamp3˩ɩKʘŚ0H50E0EU-4szlig3divideɳĴ13aumlɣė˃SrY3ɶȔOacuteKƭGamp3˖uuml˩ɩ3AcircƭKʻyacutemacrFm

Z4 2010ƀ 6DZ1Ĵ3˖uuml˩ɩKɯ˘G3˩ɩ-42020ƀ=-1ˬOtildeşKʢ 4 GW$H1D)Ͷoumlɯ4 11000 GWh10GcurrenƦHG=ampʱş3 3ccedil3 1D7ouml3ʢ 50Kȳ1ˬʹGͶEƖGcurrenƦHG (Kemin 2010)(0gt12009ƀ3ɯouml4ʢ 6700 MWh-G2010 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3currenɂ4ěȚŵdivideɳĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010) ʁǴɶȔ2008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MW3divide0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ˬ

Otildeş 350 MW3ǝˬŚEHG3ɶȔOacute3Ąccedil4Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ1D)ƭA3-$H1D)ʦʏş4 175 MWŀdivideG10GĸǞ3˩ɩƎŬ42012ƀ=-1 350MW1divideş 150 MWKdivideGamp3˩ɩKˠŚ0H50E0 ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MWKdivideGʁǴɶȔ433ņˠȕ0ȳͶoumlɯƯ0J( Horns

Rev II209 MW2009ƀ 9DZŐͿRoslashdsand II207 MW2010ƀʈʓŶcurrenŚͿAnholt400 MW2012ƀ12DZʓŶcurrenŚͿ1DFƭHG˟gt-G

Ugrave 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

1761 2358 2464 2697 2708 2716 2720 2728 2717 2756 2985 2621

ȳ 11 50 50 210 423 423 423 423 423 423 856 1339

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 2-2 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

176 1 597 106 183 12 8 4 8 ndash11 39 ndash38 ndash135

ȳ 11 39 0 210 223 0 0 0 0 0 100 ndash14

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

212 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1iacuteŚHampaumlɣė˃SrYȰ1DFͶoumlɯaRZn3ǝamp0ĽiacuteƄŨTHORNHampǝamp03ͶoumlɯaRZnD7UoN13ȳaRZnĎȲ8-4HAszligːǨ

22000Ǩ1igraveG=-bjnźľEgraveȉ1divide 025mZZrkW0034kW ĎȲ9 0047okWͿ3ugraveƭNjAEligHGĎȲ10szligːǨ˫3Ǩ1igraveampƔ4źľEgraveȉKĖĕG10

G Ͷ1ť4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥƀǘ3Ǵ ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3˚ugraveƀ 0023mZ

ZrkW00037kW 0005okWͿ˚ugraveHG

ĎȲ8 UoNaRZn134ȳͶoumlɯƯ3THORNǸư4ecirc1ƈˬHGȳͶoumlɯƯ3aRZn

ŚʻHG13ȳͶoumlɯƯUoNɧ˻db1DFƈˬHG ĎȲ9 17353mZZr ĎȲ10 ɠ˖3Egraveȉ˚ugraveiacuteƄ4ͶoumlɯaRZn93ugraveƭK 1 kWampF 010mZZr0013Ϳamp

[1degJ)ŨTHORNHampA3-G

18

ˊɱ1mZ-4ͶszligːǨ- 22000Ǩ3ɯK˖147ƀE 10ƀGAring5 3 MWͶKˬʹGH5FIT4ș3D1ȪŚHGĎȲ11

3 MWͶszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 3000 kWh

3000 kWh times 22000 = 66 GWh FITʬ˺Ǚ˚ugrave43 MWͶ 66 GWhɯG=-3ǴǓƱJHG3Oacute4ș3D10G

(66 GWh times 025Zr) + (66 GWh times 0023Zr) = 18064200Zr

Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4ʽǹĀampͶKǑĐGǝˠ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1A

ɥHG3ͳ4ǑĐHampˬOtildeş3 2ETHKɣɤGamp3szligːǨ 12000Ǩ1ť 008mZZrkW001kW 00139okWͿ-GAring5 225 kW3ͶKTHORNǝˠ3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn1D)ǑĐGľĜˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugraveK˩ʙGsup23D10G

225 kW times 2ļszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 450 kWh

450 kWh times 12000 = 54 GW

ǑĐamp 225 kWͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4

54 GWh times 008Zr = 432000Zr 3˚ugraveɥHG34450 kWǵɄ3ͶKǑĐGľĜ1EHG3˚ugrave3ơƣKĖGamp

3ǝˠaRZn-ǑĐGͶ3ǘ1iacuteˬEHGJ-403˚ugraveɥHG34

450 kWǵɄ3ͶK˩ 175 MWKǑĐGľĜ1EHG szligːǨ1ļ+ FIT-4Ś3 kWh3ɯǨ-40ˊ1tzgɷƑņͶD

FAņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶ93ƷUacuteHGAring5 3 MW 3ɯȗ3szligːǨampFɯouml (kWh) 415 MWͶ3 2ETH-ƕ)ĖĕG˚ugrave3ͳAETH10G ș1ʆUgrave 2-3D7 2-44FITͶoumlaRZn1GͶ3Ƹ1ĒltƐKʆampA3-3

Aring4ś3aRZn1ļ+G

Ugrave 2-3 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITuh AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave[]psup312

ɯȗ3

ˠȕ

MWͿ

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ ouml

MWhͿ

Ͷ 1ļampF3aRZn]bn

(DKK)

oumlłͳ (DKK)

ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 223 098 30 90 90 7497 23430 5250 224 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 223 098 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 227 100

(Nielsen et al 2010)

ĎȲ11 3Aring4reg3Ĵ3ʒ14Ġ=H0ampmZZr-ĽġG ĎȲ12 ĝ

19

Ugrave 2-4 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITu AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave]

ɯȗ

^Pc(MW)

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ

ouml (MWh)

Ͷ 1ļampF3aR

Zn]bn

(DKK)

ouml łͳ(DKK)

˚ugrave

(DKK) ʱĔTHORN

(DKK) ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 1650 6610 298 100 30 90 90 7497 2343 5250 1650 6900 295 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 1650 8920 273 092 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 990 5220 281 094

(Nielsen et al 2010)

˫3AringEņĺ3gg1ƷGDFAņĺ3ɯȗ1ƷGǞszligːǨ1ļ+

FIT 3ơƣKĖBJGUgrave 2-3 1ʆHGD1ǰAʪȽucircɞ3ˍͶ4ņĺgKOtildeamp 18 MW3ȣɱũĺ3Ͷ-GH4szlig3Ͷ-Ś3ɯouml kWhKļ1ampľĜ3 FIT1AƎ4=GUgrave 2-4 EszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT E3divideɱĔTHORNƖEHB34gɷƑũtzfrac12 3 MW3ɯȗ-Fȣɱũĺ3ɯȗ4 3frac141ˑ(GJG

FIT3ļɆszligːǨKɥGjn4currenˠŚHampˬOtildeşKƭGamp1ˬʹHGͶ3ǘŪ00G-G=ampH1DFgɷƑtz3OacuteKGjnAŪ00G

HE 2 3ʹ˩ɩKʘŚaRZnKĸUcirc-ĖTHORNHAE1ĪͲ0GľĜGszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT 4mZ3ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ʁǴɱɶȔOacute)ampˬOtildeş1ļ+ǕʘɱɶȔOacuteƭHGD1Gamp3A3-G szligːǨK FIT 3ļɆG3mjn4˚ugrave1DFźľ3ȝgtɣ GampǰAʪȽɱucircɞ

3ˍͶƛAaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ1)ǰAͺoumlɱ0gw-400G-G

$3ampǰʨɱ14Ͷoumlɯreg3ɅDFA10F20mZ-43ƏƉ3 FIT AumlJHGampɯoumlKļɆampɶȔOacuteƭ1G]bn0Gʫȁ0G

22 NDQ+ 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-4mZ1G 2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKG-ɥampmg42008 ƀ1˩ɩG4śǟHampaRZn3ſĹOacute1ļ+A3-GͶ93Ʒ]bn4^Pn3Ǽacute1DFŚ-40mZ-4ɯ]bnȣɱŚGD-GˬOtildeş MWampF3Ʒ]bn14ǰņ- 503GeacuteƀƄ3ɯouml MWh ampFƷ]bn3Ńuumlɞ4 15ǵɄ-G

221 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para mZ3ͶoumlɯaRZ-n4ˊ1Ū0Ͷǘ3Έ12ļͿ3ͶʺKɥG˩ɩW

PoP-4Ū0A 3ļ3ͶKɷʳɛG4ʵB0ŔKNJD1=ʹGGH4ͶK 1 ļccedilǗɱ1ʹGˡˢɱĉƋ0GE-GmZ14ņˠȕQOoyM3AringGbPBʟĴņ0A3-40ǰņˠȕ3b4Ͷ 20ļKˬʹGʱş 63 MWͿ

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹŚȉş4 19 MW-F$3gɷƑ4 80 mtz4 72 m-G2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ-ǰAˊɱ034 23 MW3Ͷ-F$3tz4 80 mgɷƑ4 93 m-G

(b) BL0+Ouml mZ3Ͷğ4ˊ1˝ğ-GampͶ3^PnɡƦɱ034āȷȮų10G

20

ˊɱ1ͶɅ4ǾŪ00)GȮųĸŻ$3Ģ-4ƀſĹͶ 7 msKGH4 2 MWͶtz 80 mͿ1ļ1ťszligːǨʢ 2500Ǩ1ɸƎG(Danish Energy Agency 2010)2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3 2009ƀƄ3szligːǨ4ſĹ 2639Ǩ-)amp2009ƀ3mZ3ͶɅ4żƀ3 88-2008 ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3szligːǨ4szligˀɥƀǘſĹ-ʢ 3000 Ǩ10GcurrenƦHGɫƧszligːǨ3LJŚOacute4mZszligiquest3ͶɅl`1GA3-402008ƀ1ˬʹH2009ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+˩ʙampA3-G

(c) ccedil-1 2008ƀƄ3deg˘ɱ0aRZnƷ]bn141100kW1529okWͿE 1300kW1807

okWͿ=-F$3ſĹ4 1250 kW1738 okWͿ-GEgraveȉ4 2008 ƀ1xZ1ampƔ2009ƀ 2010ƀ1ņŽ1frac12GɚƙG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ1GͶ3ʰƾ4IgraveIcircɡ^wbŋʢĸdegĵĸʚɡ3 4 ɶ-ȒƭH

GHE3ɶ$HHͶoumlɯƯ3ɣȹʰƾ3ʢ 25KĈG2008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlɯaRZn1currenƦHGɣȹʰƾ412MWh17oMWhͿ-G (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m4ƀ|b3Ouml 80-K˺GaRZnKɥGmZ1GȤ

ƯDz3Ͷ4ˊ1ƎƅOgraveŋʢ1DFK˺Gegrave3ĔTHORNKƎƅOgraveŋʢ1Ʒ FͶ

3ƯDzʿ43ļKɷDžeumlɥG-0Ʒ1ťGeumlɊ93ǓaeligǓƱ4szligOumlȖʿ3Ƴ˴

ʻyacutemacrEHG mZ3ɡƦɱ0aRZn4100Ouml-K˺GaRZn-Gż3aRZ

n-4Ouml1DG˺3otildeĜʢ 800)GͶoumlɯaRZn1ťGOgraveTHORNĮĔǴĖTHORNHė˃034 15ƀsup2atilde-G

2008 ƀƄ3ƎƅOgraveŋʢ3eumlő4ʢ 5ͼ-H4 5 ƀijŚHGͶoumlɯaRZn4reg3ƷȗɱbrvbarȐȣȵuumlƟ˟0HGampˊ1eumlőfrac120)GͶoumlɯaRZ

n3bZ˞įKʚɡ-Gegrave0ưȠGEͶ93Ʒ4bZfrac12˟0HG mZ1GǝˠaRZn3ľĜʣɤɞ4ż 9Έ11-G3amp 5~73bZ

Nė˃10G3EA1983ƀE 2002ƀ=-3mZ˯icircȇƉĕƊƯ3 OMX203bZNſĹ 72)amp3ȣͶoumlɯaRZn3bZȣɱfrac12JGĎȲ13 (Saabye 2003)

(f) s_N3N9A Ͷ30ĔTHORNɅ4NordPool źľK 3oumlłFIT Ə-3Egraveȉ˚ugrave-Gʬ˺

ǙbrvbarȐʿ3Ͷ3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢK 5ƀ=-ƇG-GĎȲ14HE3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢ4 Nord Pool3Yacuteəźľ1Ɇ ʴʫHG

(g) Q54Q1 mg4 Economy of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ1

ļ+A3-G

222 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para 2008 ƀ1mZ-ŐampȳaRZn40HA˩ɩG4ƈˬȠ1GȳQ

OoyMɯ4ˊ1Ǖƃ3˴ėKƖEHG10G3˴ė4THORNǸʋKEHG

A3-szligːǨ 50000Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml kWhampF3THORNǸ1ťǰfrac12Egraveȉ3A31˴ė

ĎȲ13 Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark ĎȲ14 10ƀijŚEgraveȉKNjAEligGǝˠ3ɯAɰľG

21

aeligHG10GHornz Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand I amp II4THORNǸʋKʪśɠampaRZn-GAnholt3ǝȳQOoyM3THORNǸǴ4 2010ƀ 6DZ1ʨpoundG$3ˬOtildeş4 400 MW-2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-1KŐG10G UoN13ǞƉĎȲ15QOoyMA˴ėHGUoNǞƉQOoyM3ˬʹlaquo

ƖEHH5Ͷ1Aĝ PdlOz[ɥHG10Gɠķ=-1 2 3UoNǞƉ3QOoyMƈˬHG

(b) ccedil-1 mZ1GȳQOoyMɯbrvbarȐʿ3Ʒ]bn4˴ėiacute3THORNǸʋKʪampʢ 200 MW3

ņˠȕQOoyM1ťʢ 2700Έ3000kW3753Έ4170okWͿ-G ȳQOoyMKĴatilde3oumlʡʭȳŃĶˬOtilde1ʡGamp3]bn4mZ-4Ĵƺ

GampaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷʱͳŪ00)GɢĿƐ˰Egravebrvbarntilde3ȷƂĸ˰Egrave3]

bnAĴƺG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳQOoyM3ʰƾ4ʭ˩mgEHF=ampȳQOoyMɥʪǬʳ

ƞthornKƭGamp1ʄśƟmZ3ņˠȕȳQOoyM3ɣȹʰƾ4ĸ

Ļ3ɛȯ1DF 18MWh25oMWhͿE 20MWh28oMWhͿ=-G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mZ3ņˠȕQOoyM3˺4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ȪʙǴszligiquest1ɀ)˖JH

GsmOjZƷ˖E3OgraveTHORN˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM1eumlɥHGraquoH4

aRZn93˺Ə-˖JHGJ-40Ϳ˴ ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4ż 50ƍ3Ƿȣɞ-˺HG mZ3oumlmiddotʇ3Ƿ]bn4ʢ 112ͼ Ouml]bn4 4555˩ʙHG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) s_N3N9A ˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml3ijŚEgraveȉKĖĕ)

GijŚEgraveȉ4THORNǸdb-ȪŚHGTHORNǸEgraveȉ4˺ǙHampƿȔ-40szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ĔTHORN Nord PooloumlĕƊ-3ł-ƖEHampƔ1ȪŚHGHorns Rev II3ˑǸEgraveȉ4 0069kWh0096okWhͿRoslashdsand II4 0085kWh0118o kWhͿ-GźľEgraveȉ1ťGEgraveȉ˚ugrave4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿTHORNǸEgraveȉ1Ɯ NjAEligGźľEgraveȉTHORNǸEgraveȉDFľĜQOoyM

Eʡʭɥʿ1ŸͳKǓƱJ250E0 ˴ėiacute-0G4UoN13ǞƉ3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 22000 Ǩ1G

=- 0034kWh0047okWhͿD7Ͷeumlɥ-Greg3˚ugraveKĖĕG

(f) Q54Q1 Horns Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand II3ƈˬ]bnʱͳ1Gmg4eumlɥė˃0agraveɱƥĽmZ3ȳ

QOoyMɯ3ŦŞD7ȳQOoyMƯDzʿ0E71ȳQOoyM3˺

ʿ93ˁĕF˺ȆE1THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙEƖampA3-G

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacute3ȑ˞-G

ĎȲ15 UoN13aRZn4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3THORNǸʋKʪ1˖JHGȳƈˬaRZnŚ

ʻHG3 23QOoyM1divide13ȳɯƯUoNɧ˻db1D)ƈˬHG

22

Ugrave 2-5 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ16

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ17 ȳ

2008ƀĎȲ18 ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 23 23 23 Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 3 91 90 ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2700 4300 3865

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 25 25 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1250 2844 3000

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash (1738) (3953) (4170) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 12 (17) 20 (28) 18 (25) $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 3 (4) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆ Economics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010

Ugrave 2-6 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 50 55 45 Ƿeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 110 112 112 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 80 45 26 Ƿ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 20 66 74

WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 52 88 95 Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 13 10 13 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 25 25 25

FXn $US 139 139 139 FXn DKK ndashndashndash 7353 ndashndashndash 7353

ǛΆEconomics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aeligIacuteɥļ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ

Ugrave 2-7 NDQ+uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 447 (621) 28 (39) 447 (621) źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 37 (51) 70 (97) 85 (118) FITǕʘǴ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 22000 50000 50000 ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

LVRT ˮȲ 6ĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ǛΆNielsen et al 2010 Danish Energy Agency 2008 Danish Energy Agency 2009 ĎȲ16 2007ƀ14mZ-ǝamp1ƈˬHampͶ40)amp ĎȲ17 2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ȳ1Ͷ4ƈˬH0)ampȳQOoyM 3ƈˬG4˩ɩȠ1)amp

$3( 24Ǖƃ3˴ė˩ɩ1ļ+A3-ȟF64UoN13aRZn-)ampHorns Rev II3ǰʨɱ0Ʒ3ȪŚ4 2007ƀ10Hampamp3ǘŒ4 Horns Rev II3LJŚ]bn1ļ+GRoslashdsand II3ƷȪŚ4 2008ƀ10H$Hĝƀ3]bn3Ȉƻ0)G

ĎȲ18 -ɥampAring42008ƀ1ƈˬŋʢʴʫHamp Roslashdsand II3THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙG ˮȲ 6 LVRT (Low Voltage Ride Through) Ķɾfrac12Ǩ1AͶ0ͶoumlɯƯ3KʮʯʡʭŘŚƄKʰƾGȗ˃

23

223 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc 2008ƀ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ93ƷmgKɥ LCOEK˩ʙAring 1Auml1ʆampđɔb3

LCOEȣampđɔb4Wind Task263szligđdivideĴ3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn-G đɔb3 6 Ńǘ3ƐKmZ3brvbarAringȣěŃǘmZ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOE 1Ɛ

GKǥE1ampđɔbmZ3brvbarAringKȣampʫȁKx 2-2 1ʆmZ3ſĹɱaRZn3 LCOE42008ƀ14 61MWh85oMWhͿ-H4đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿDFA 7MWh10oMWhͿfrac12)amp

x 2-2 NDQ+rmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup319

(b) BL0+dj đɔb3aRZn3aeligouml4szligːǨ 2600ǨKBBĮ)ampǞ 2008ƀ1Őamp

mZ3aRZn3 2009ƀ3ſĹɯouml4szligːǨ 2700ǨKBBĮ)ampH4 2009ƀ3ͶȯƤͶoumlɯ3ɯoumlAringƀ3 88ͼ10)ampamp-G3ɏKʾƬG2008ƀƄ3ſĹɱaRZn3ƀszligːǨ4ʢ 3000Ǩ-H1DFaRZn3ʪȽƟ=FLCOEʢ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿfrac12amp10GmZ3brvbarAring3szligːǨđɔbȣǤH5GLCOE4ʢ 1MWh1oMWhͿfrac12G

(c) Ntildeccedil-1 2008ƀ1GmZ3Ʒ]bn4đɔbDFAʢ 200kW278okWͿfrac12m

Z3aRZn]bn 15frac120)amp34mZ3ʡʭʡ]bnKƺG3ʡʭɥʿ-Gamp-G ʡʭɥʿ4ĖɏE3ʡ]bnKǓƱ3]bn14ŃƯBŃĶĬ3]bnĠ=HG3

aRZn3ƯDzʿ4ͶEĖɏ=-3]bnKǓƱA3SNʹ˩ɩˠiuml1GͶS

N˟0HGľĜ$3SN3ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿĖɏ=-ʡ-GD1ʡʭKƼƌ0H50E0

3]bn4ʡʭɥʿƺG3ˠiacute1DFaRZn]bnszligiquestKņŽ1ȿE-

GHKx 2-31ʆ đɔbDFAƷ]bnfrac120)G˞į4reg1ƈˬ^Pn3ĸɡɱǼacuteegrave0ĸ

Ucirc1ƍouml0Ͷ˛ɤȐD7ʪŢ0aRZnɯœķGʹ˩ɩɢĿƐ˰Egrave1

GͶ3Ȱˠiacuteăccedil1ǙOtildeHGǀEHG

ĎȲ19 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4ĭǂcopyTHORN3ampđɔběĴ LCOE3Ÿ3

Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

24

x 2-3 NDQ+eumlEuml-1-1iumleGK

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mZ3˺]bn4đɔbDFAͳ-GmZ3aRZn-ƛ˞H

GǷeumlɲɞ4 110ͼđɔb-4 100Ϳ-ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ouml3ſĹeumlɞ4đɔbȣGOuml1DG˺3otildeĜĝʋƄ-G mZ-4Ͷ3ȵuumlƟͶoumlɯaRZn3ucircɞɱ0bZranĩĦźľ-eumlɥ

-GampͶ3˺1GbZ3|frac12˟0HGmZ3aR

Zn3Oumleumlő1˘HGmZ-4Ƿ]bn0)G34oumlźľ1GEgraveȉbZ

1ǩHGʄɞamp-GH4 FIT 1D)ȽKIgrave˯GDFźľEgraveȉK˚)Gamp-FFITKŨTHORNGreg3Ĵ-AltAringń0ĝ ɛȯ10)GmZ14yacute]bnKGė˃Ɵ3Gfynʗ1eumlɥ-GǓǎbX4œķ0 ˺]bn1D)mZ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFAʢ 3 MWh4 oMWhͿ0)

G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ3ʰƾ4Ńuuml133gt˘ʆHG2009ƀD7 2010ƀ3yumlƽɱʃʐ (Nelson

et al 2010) 1DH52008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶ3ʰƾ4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥǴszligiquest- 12MWh17oMWhͿ10Gʰƾ1D)mZ3aRZn3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 1MWh1oMWhͿfrac120)G

(f) 13T-1 mZ1Greg3]bn14ʬ˺Ǚ]bnGmZ14 3 oMWh4 oMWhͿ3

ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3ugraveƭiacuteƄF3ͳ4ś3Ͷ3ʬ˺Ǚ]bn1ʗƦŚHGreg3]bn

4đɔbȣ LCOE1LƐ0

(g) uumljfrac14divideWampgtKQCcedil mZ3ľĜͶoumlɯsup2ń3SrYǕʘ4ȰlaquoʌD7˹ʌƯƖ3eumlőǓƱ3ȿͳ1GǕ

ʘ-GmZ4đɔbDFAȰlaquoʌɞfrac12ƕ)˹ʌƯƖEǓƱeumlőKņŽ1ȿͳG

-G=ampͶoumlɯaRZn3OumlǷȣɞ0)GampmZ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFA 1MWh1oMWhͿfrac12 ˩ʙ-4ȿEgraveUgraveČ1GmZ3ˠiumlKēǧ0mZ-4ͶKĠŶȐˬOtilde3EgraveOacute

$3ȟAacuteEgraveOacute3ǰņ 25=-ƀ1ȿEgraveUgraveČHH1DFͶoumlɯsup2ń3SrYǕʘ3]bn4ʳƏɱ1frac12G3frac12ɞ4˩ʙ0

224 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj˩ʙ1DFmZ3ĔTHORNŃǘKͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘȣ

GyacuteYj4=ĔTHORNAͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOzAʾƬ1˩ʙampș1ĔTHORNŃǘ3gt

KĠyacuteYjKauml˩ʙǰƔ1ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘKĠampOacuteKauml7˩ʙamp

3Ɉŀʋ1DFǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘ1ťGĔTHORN3ɸťɱEgraveOacuteKǥE1amp x 2-4 4ĔTHORNŃǘKǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘȣampA3-G=ampHEaacute1mZ3

LCOE K3D1ȒƭGKʆG61 MWh85 oMWhͿ3(ʢ 43 MWh

25

60oMWhͿKĔTHORNɅoumlłͿ-24MWh33oMWhͿKaRZn3ˀɥǴ3FIT˚ugraveƏ-3PdlOz-ȣɞ-˧5mZ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 2KĔTHORN3Ȓƭ˞ʥ-ȟF3 3ccedil3 1K FIT-10G

x 2-4 2008NDQ+s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilthornN3N9Apsup320

mZ3mccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ampFʢ ndash6MWh ndash8oMWhͿ-GH4ſĹmZ3ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿƷŞͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯƷ3yacute˞acuteKɄamp31

ăccedil0Xj`yKoumlĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘ3PdlOzEƖGKʆĨG

23 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+

2008 ƀ1Ͷ3ĽUgraveiacuteƄǝamp1ŨTHORNHsup2ǽͶ93Ʒ0E71$3ŨTHORN93ƚaumlɗGͶoumlɯƚKGǞ-ǕƃoumlKTHORNHG34ȳQOoyM3ŨTHORN-G2008ƀ142012ƀǶ=-1ȳ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşK 800 MW1GʁǴɶȔˬŚHamp|b3ɶȔOacute4ǝˠ3Ͷouml3ˬOtildeş 175 MWǠœ3ͶoumlɯƯKˬOtildeǭǝG1D)ƖEHGˬOtildeş 175 MWHG mZ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bn4Ʒ]bnŚͳ-Gamp1đɔbDFAfrac120)G

yacute]bnʰƾ3frac12A$H1ŠGͶoumlɯ3]bn4Ͷ3Egraveȉ3frac123amp

1ŧǽG˟gt-G3˟gt3ampͶoumlɯ3 LCOE 2008ƀ1 61MWh85oMWhͿ)amp31ťǣA 2009ƀ14 59MWh82oMWhͿ10)GH4Ͷ3]bnfrac120)GE-GoumlEgraveȉfrac12ampͶ3Ř1DGyacuteeumlɲ4Ū00)G2009ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3yacuteYj4 ndash5MWh ndash7oMWhͿLJŚHG$H-AB4FmZ3Ͷoumlɯ4ɠķ3 FIT3-4Ɗʯͺoumlɱ0Ʒ0)G ȳͶoumlɯ3 LCOE4ěaRZn3ˑǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙHGmZ3 2008ƀ3ȳͶ

oumlɯ]bn42007ƀȣ 15ŀdivideGH4$EͶ3]bn3Ǥȳƈˬˌˋ3AEligʬ1G~nrjZzD7ƛĦ3EgraveȉǤ3amp-GʾEHGsup23˘ 2-8 42007ƀ 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ]bnK=ampA3-G

ĎȲ20 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampĔɲʱͳͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz0E71

yacuteYj4ěĴ LCOE3ŸBBɮ0GľĜAG

26

Ugrave 2-8 2007 2008NDQ+uumljfrac14divide LCOEpsup321

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave

(LCOE) euroMWh

($MWh) ndashndashndash 61 (85)

70 (97)

81 (113)

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) 67

(93) 79

(110)

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj (FG)

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash6

(ndash8) 3

(4) 2

(3)

2008 ƀEȳͶŅźľĀHG1HĦĎǺǛ3Egraveȉ)GmZ1GȳͶoumlɯ3]bn4ŀdivideGcurrenƦHGH4614ˏĴoPk-˚ugrave3ͳ0)

GE-$3ʫȁmZ3ȳaRZn93Ʒ3ȗmiddot]bn0)ampE-G=ampm

Z3ȳͶoumlɯ3źľȚŵ3˞0źľȣũˠȕ-GȳaRZnǕʘ1DFș3

THORNǸ=-3KȣɱGamp1THORNǸʿ3ĕƊ]bn0)G=ampTHORNǸʋ3ʕyen

|frac12mZ3ȳͶouml3˞0źľ1đdivideG34 2 Ȑʿ3gtͿ)ampAEgraveȉKǤGė˃ƟGmZ3˴ėiacuteƄ1DFbZccedilǗHGmZ3ȳͶouml

ɯ3]bnKƷŞmZ3ȳoumlźľ1ͺoumlKƨ 00)G30Ď

įƝJHG mZ3ȳͶoumlɯ3]bnKGA3ɡɦparaȐǏɲccedilŲEgraveȉ-THORNǸ

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rOtildemiddot

Danish Wind Industry Association httpwindpowerorgenknowledgestatisticsthe_danish_markethtml September 2010 (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)

Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2007 2008 (Danish Energy Agency 2008) Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2008 2009 (Danish Energy Agency 2009)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Ministry of Climate and Energy National handlingsplan for vedvarende energi i Danmark 2010 (In English National Action

ĎȲ21 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampĔɲʱͳͶoumlɯǕʘͽPdlO

zD7yacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜAG

27

Plan for RE in Denmark) (Kemin 2010)

Nielsen et al Economy of Wind Turbines 2010 EUDP (Nielsen et al 2010) (Original title Vindmoslashllers Oslashkonomi)

Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark (Saabye 2003)

28

Aring 3Auml lt8

31 lt8uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

311 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

oPk1GͶoumlɯɯ4 1990ƀdegeacuteͰ1ŐHamp$Hsup2ǽͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4 239 GWsup210)ampƀŨTHORNş4 2002ƀ1 32 GW1ampƔJ1ȿŪampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4 2012ƀ=-1Ĝ˩- 306 GW 1ǤG˟=HG2012 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3Ĵecircaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010)

2009ƀȳQOoyM3ʖ 1Ě0)amp Alpha VentusʓŶampH1DFȳ3ɯŧǽŐ=GA3ǴƒHGoPkǕƃ4 2015ƀǶ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʢ 25 GW1GɶȔKɯ˘G

x 3Ă1 lt8uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

2000 ƀoPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4Ĵatildeʱɯouml3 16KĈsup2ǽ3otildeĜ4ņŽ1Ǥ8ƀƔ14 620)GcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3ŀdivideoPkǕƃ1DGɺSrY3ĕFʩgtKʾƬG3otildeĜ4notƔAǤKʯGcurrenƦHGUgrave 3-1 4oPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ĐD7ŧǽ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 3-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀşdivideKʆampA3-G

29

Ugrave 3-1 lt8IacuteAtildeTHORNOacuteeth (GW)

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2012currenƦ

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44 61 88 120 146 166 184 206 222 239 306 358

ȳ 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 100

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Ugrave 3-2 lt8oacute_eth (GW)

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ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

312 s_CcedilN3N9A

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(a) copyUacute EEG 4D7ȳͶoumlɯKĠszlig3aumlɣė˃SrYɅ3ǓǎKˠiacuteGȰƓ-GɣɤH

ampSrY4ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFłHG FIT 4 2 3Ƞfrac12ͳ3ļǷǛǞƉͳ3ĽŌǞƉͿ-ȒƭHGotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ɥǴ

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Hampȳɯ3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4˫3 EEG3shyʩgt1ļ+ȪŚHamp

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ĎȲ22 oPk3đɔ^Pn4ǷĽġǮ-ɥampđɔb133-401ȲƧ

30

MWh128oMWhͿ1ǔ˨Hamp(E3ĕͳAQOoyM3ƈˬƀEƀɞ 1-frac12ƕ) 2009 ƀ3ƈˬaRZnĖĕGotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 92 MWh128 oMWhͿ10G2010ƀ3ƈˬaRZn-4 91MWh126oMWhͿ10GǠœ^PnˬOtildeǭǝaRZn-H5E1 5MWh5oMWhͿ3otildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideʙHGͶoumlʡʭ3^nAring5Ģȱǘ˺ǙͿ-GľĜ42014ƀ=-1ˬʹHGǝˠaRZnĝ 5MWh7oMWhͿ3ĽotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ť0GͶ 2010ƀ=-1ǰĀHampľĜǠœ3aRZn1ťG3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 7MWh10oMWhͿ1ŀdivideG ȳQOoyM14 35 MWh49 oMWhͿ3ļǷĕEgraveȉɥHGȳQOoyM

3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 130MWh181oMWhͿ-H 12ƀǓƱJHG2016ƀDFntilde1ƈˬHampaRZn-H5E1 2 MWh3 oMWhͿ3otildeŀĕEgraveȉǓƱJHG10GotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ǴƇ4 EEG3ˊɱ0shyʩgt1Ɇ G

32 lt8VUgravefrac12oumlRPacuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+

321 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

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ōͶȯ3^Pn1ʑĸGaRZn-G3^Pn3szligːǨ4 2260ǨʋƄ10GcurrenƦHG

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aeligouml-)amp2007ƀ 2008ƀ1oPk-QOoyMƈˬ1ampĸĻ4ȣɱŪ0$3ampͶ3ǘŪ0ũˠȕ3QOoyMŅǘƈˬHG10)amp2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ˬ ʹHampǰ

ņˠȕ3QOoyM3Śȉaeligouml4 30 MW-FͶćɜ-ˬʹHGbrvbarAringż1Ņ)ampͶ 5ļ-ȒƭHGQOoyMKmbamp ƀ4oPkĆ3^Pn-ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯEHGHE3^Pn4oPk3đɔ

SNȣͶȯoslash)GampoPk3đɔSN3 903Ͷȯ3ľƯKaRZn^Pn1L-G

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4ŚȉaeligoumlͶ3gɷƑtz0E71Ͷ3ˊɱ0ˬ˩]dnŚȉaeligouml

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31

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ĔTHORN4SrY3 FITD7GǛEƖEHG2007ƀ1ƈˬHampaRZn3ĽŌ4 819

MWh11384 oMWhͿ-ļǷǛ4 518 MWh72 oMWhͿ-GaRZn^Pn31ļ+3ĽŌiacuteƄ4 183ƀɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 mg4 EEG (2004) DEWI Magazine Nos 32 (2008) and 34 (2009) D7 Deutsche WindGuard GmbH ZSW3

amp1Acircƭamp EEG(2008)3Ɔț1GʉŕɱĽġǮEƖampȰlaquoʌ3Oacute4 Destatis (2009)1ļ+

322 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

sup23ƥĽ42008ƀsup21ƈˬHGcurrenŚ3ȳQOoyM1ļ+A3-G

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G3aRZn^Pn4 Borkum1G East FrisianŴ3ʢ 40 kmȫĜ3āȷ1frac14ʹȦȻʢ 30 m-G3ȷųE3ȦȻ3ʪȽɱEacuteɲKƖGamp14Śȉaeligoumlʢ 5 MW3ȳͶƛ˞10G3^Pn3szligːǨ4 3700Ǩ10GcurrenƦHG

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3ȳQOoyMKEHampľƯ1D7ȻȦĻ1ƈˬGamp3Ʒ]bn4ɪ

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ʡ]bn4Ġ=H0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳͶoumlɯ3ʰƾ43ʰƾDFA˒0)GȷųEHG-

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(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȳ3aRZn3ƷŞ143ľĜDFAeumlɲɞƛ˞10Gȳ3Ƿeumlɲɞ12ͿA

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iquest-G4ub`n1DF˺G0Ϳė˃ƟAG

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ȳͶoumlɯ3ouml4EEG3 FIT1D)ƱƮHGƦŚampm1˧5EEG20041ļ+

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(f) Q54Q1 mg4 EEG(2004)D7 Deutsche WindGuard GmbH ZSW3amp1Acircƭamp EEG(2008) Ɔț1Gʉŕ

ɱĽġǮ1ļ+

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 3-354sup21G LCOEccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacuteK˘

32

Ugrave 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 2 2 NA 5 Ͷļǘ ļ 5 5 NA 12 ɯ szligːǨ 2260 2260 NA 3700

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA 20 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1259 (1750) 1373 (1908) NA 3230 (4490)

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 4571 (635) 4633 (644) NA 123 (171) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 149 (207) 152 (211) NA ndashndashndash $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

Ugrave 3-4 lt8uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 55 55 NA 65

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 95 95 NA 120 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 70 70 NA 70

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 30 30 NA 30 WACC ͼ 56 56 NA 68

Ǵ ƀ 13 13 NA 15 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 298 298 NA 298

FXn $US 139 139 NA 139

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard Destatis

Ugrave 3-5 lt8uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 79 (110) 78 (108) NA 84 (117) FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA 20

ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ

ƀ NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 16 16 NA 16 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

323 lt8oumlRBL0+yuml2008ĀrmicroQ1-1plusmnecirc

x 3-2EoPk3 LCOE85MWh 118oMWhͿǷĽġǮ-Yacute1ampđɔbDFA˒ccedilG$3ɡɦKsup21IJʆG

33

x 3-2 lt8uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup323

324 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) BL0+dj LCOE 3KAampEG34aRZn3śʷ-GʾEHGđɔb3ş

4ƀszligːǨ 2630ǨoPk3ļǷaRZn3szligːǨ4ƀ 2260Ǩ$HDFA4G1frac12

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4 1373 kW1908o kWͿ-đɔbDFA 76

kW106okWͿfrac12)ampLCOE1˧5H4ʢ 3MWh4oMWhͿȿ1ɸƎG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAʢ 7MWh10oMWhͿH

4ŚǴɏȏ3śǟQOoyMũˠȕ01DGcurrenOtildeĦ3Igraveʚ]bn3Ǥ)ampɡɦ1DG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 oPk3aRZnđɔb3Ÿɮ4ʢ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-H4˺Ȓ

31įG

(e) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4ƦŚ0

325 s_F(=2E

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯ14EEG1ļ+ FITɥHGoPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn EEG2004G4 EEG20093-ƲJHGF$Hsup2ń3ĔTHORN4˟=H0E1oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎGamp3reg3PdlOzKŨTHORNG4ƧIJHE$3currenƦA0

ĎȲ23 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4ĭǂcopyTHORN3ampđɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3

Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

34

x 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup324

326 aringmH7B

x 3-31ʆampD15MWh7oMWhͿ3yacuteYjɣ FH4szligːǨʰƾ3Ÿɮ1DGA3-G

33

-LoPk3QOoyM3Aring4Śȉaeligouml 2MW3Ͷ 5ļ-ȒƭHGaRZn3szligːǨ42260ǨƦŚG3m3ƦŚ1ļ+LCOE485MWh118oMWhͿLJŚHampNjAEligHamp FIT1DFaRZnɯǨȐʿ3yacuteYjampFʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ10GǛ3Oacute4 EEG-ˠŚHG

Ugrave 3-6 lt8Iumlsectpsup325

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

85 (118) NA 135

(188) ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

79 (110) NA 84

(117)

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

5 (7) NA 46

(64)

rOtildemiddot

BMU Leitszenarion 2009 ndash Bundesministerium fuumlr Umwelt Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit Langfristszenarien und Strategien fuumlr den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland ndash Leitszenario 2009 (2009)

Destatis Statistisches Bundesamt wwwdestatisde (last access December 2009) ĎȲ24 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAG ĎȲ25 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

35

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 32 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122007 (2008)

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 34 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122008 (2009)

Deutsche WindGuard Deutsche WindGuard GmbH on behalf o Zentrum fuumlr Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Wuumlrttemberg (ZSW) Vorbereitung und Begleitung bei der Erstellung eines Erfahrungsberichtes gemaumlszlig sect 20 EEG (2008)

EEG 2004 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich (2004)

EEG 2009 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich und zur Aumlnderung damit zusammenhaumlngender Vorschriften (2008)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

36

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41 JN6uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

411 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬʹş42000ƀ3 447 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 2121 MW1ŀdivide3( 228 MWȳͶoumlɯ3ş0)GͶoumlɯ1DGƀ3ɯouml42000ƀ3 08 TWhE 2008ƀ3 43 TWh1ŀdivideGǞ2008ƀ3Uh3ʱȸouml4 119 TWh-)ampͶoumlɯ3ʁǴɶȔ42008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 2000 MWdivideG-G3ɶȔ3ƭ1DFˬʹȽgtG4ƈˬ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʱş4ʢ 4000 MW10G2009ƀ14950 MW3ȳͶoumlɯ3THORNǸŐHGȳͶoumlɯ3ɶȔOacute42020 ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 6000 MW 1G-Graquo EU 3aumlɣė˃SrYƿplusmn3ʻyacuteKɄGamp34 2020ƀ=-3ɶȔOacute45178 MW-G x 4-1 D7Ugrave 4-1 4-2 4D7ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71ěƀƄ3

ʁǴɱD7ǴɱɶȔOacute3currenɂ-Gszlig3şmg4ěƀǶ3mg-Gɏ1ɫƧ-GU

h4ǠœͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ14ɶȔOacuteKŚ0

x 4-1 JN6uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 and Rijksoverheid 2010

2000ƀ3ƀŨTHORNş4ĝƀǶ3ʦʏˬOtildeşĝ ş1ˬŚHampUgrave 4-21ʆȜģƀŨTHORNş4

ǑĐampͶoumlɯaRZn3ȜģˬOtildeşKĠL-GUgrave 4-2 1ʆamp2009 ƀE 2012 ƀ=- 2012ƀE 2020ƀ=-3ěǴ3ȜģƀŨTHORNş4ě3Ǵ3ſĹƀŨTHORNşKʆGsup23˘1ʆˬOtildeş4UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ1ļ+ˬOtildeş3currenɂ-GRijksoverheid 2010Ϳ

37

Ugrave 4-1 JN6IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0447 0485 0672 0905 1075 1224 1453 1641 1921 2727 6000

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0108 0228 0228 5178

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 andRijksoverheid 2010

Ugrave 4-2 JN6regwoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0038 0038 0187 0233 0170 0149 0229 0188 0280 0202 0409

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0 0 0 0619

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010Rijksoverheid 2010

412 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1ǝamp0 FIT ĽŌ˩ɩ-G SDE ˮȲ 7ŨTHORNHamp3 SDE bX3-Ͷoumlɯ3ś3ɯ]bn1˟ĜotildeŀĕEgraveȉoumlčEgraveȉ1divideǓƱJHGE1aumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗93Ʒ

1fynʌiacuteUacuteLjʹKɥGjnSDEotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3Ȃʩgtatilde-ȏ˪HG

42 JN6VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-Uh3deg˘ɱ0D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZnK˷ǥG

421 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh4 2003ƀ1szligːǨ|b-ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎG FITiacuteƄKŨTHORNamp2006ƀ=-4

szligːǨ 18000 Ǩ=-3aRZn1ťǰ- 10 ƀ FIT NjAEligHamp2008 ƀE3 FIT 1DGǓǎ4szligːǨ 2200 Ǩsup23aRZn1ť˖JHG10)ampſĹszligːǨ4ƀʢ2000Ǩ-$3ˊɱ0ʜı4ƀ 16002800Ǩ-G Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4FITǓǎ3˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZnKʆGĎȲ263

aRZn-4$3Pq`NlOz3ņĄǕɱ1ś˖ė˃0]bn3|KˬŚGdeg˘ɱ0

34 15 MW3ũˠȕQOoyM-ͶoumlɯaRZn3ņĄ 23 MW3ͶgɷƑ 90 mtz 60Έ80 mͿKAuml)G3ĸĻ-4iacuteˬEHFHE3ĸĻ-4tz 4060 m3 450800 kWͶˊɱ-G

(b) ccedil-1 aRZn3deg˘ɱ0Ʒ]bn4 1000kW1390okWͿE 1600kW2224okWͿ

=-Fˊ1Ʒ]bnszligːǨAŅ0)G

ˮȲ 7 SDE (stimulering duurzame energie) UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrYD7ɖAtildeʬ1GǓǎbX ĎȲ26 đɔaRZn134Ƿccedilǿ-ɥampđɔb13KƿA3-401ȲƧ

38

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3atildeˮ4ɯouml1D)ŃuumlGA3 9Έ12 kWh13Έ17 okWhͿż4ɥ

ŐE 5ƀ3^wbŋʢ1DGͿˬOtildeş1D)ŃuumlGA3 25kW35okWͿĸdegʡʭʡ]bnKĠͿ-GƔʿ3Oacute4aRZn1D)˒ɮ0Gś3ʰƾ4ƀ 23otildeĜ-ŀdivideGƦŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷKēǧampƀ|b3Ouml 80-˺GaR

ZnKɥG˚ugrave3NjAEligʿ-GͿǕƃ4ˇŹǷɞ 15D7Oumlɞ 6ͼKȜƦŚGoumlmiddotʇ4ub`n1ļ+˺K˖)GȰlaquoʌ4 255ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A 0ĔTHORNɅ4Yacuteəźľ-3Ǵŋʢ1DGoumlł-FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ1D)yacuteYj

K)Gyumlƽɱ0dividePdlOzfynSrYƷotildeƊ1D)NjAEligHG

3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4˹ʌė˃0ĔTHORNɅKƾamp0ɯbrvbarȐʿKĠ==0brvbarȐiquest1ɥHF1

43iacuteƄ1DFƯƖʌ 421ťeumlɲKƖGɯbrvbarȐʿAG

(f) Q54Q1 -ɥampmg4Uh3 FIT otildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3˩ʙ-ɥampđɔaRZn3agrave˘mg-

G (Lensink et al 2009 Cleijne et al 2010)

422 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh3ȳͶoumlaRZn-4ƈˬ˴ėKƖǰņ 50 m2ˠȕ3QOoyMKƈˬG-

Gƕ)deg˘ɱ0ȳaRZn3ˬOtildeş4 100Έ300 MW-Fʡʭ1NjAEligHGȜģɯouml4szligːǨ 3300Έ4000ǨɸƎ-G2008ƀ1 Prinses AmaliaQOoyMřƭamp1ʆmg14$3]bnȒ4ƛAĠ=H0

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4 2500Έ3500kW3475Έ4865okWͿ-G2008ƀ1řƭampaRZn4$

3ǘƀntilde1Famp˴ė3iacuteǼacute3ampȣɱũĺ3 V90ĺ 2 MWͶKɥG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ɥbrvbarȐʿ3ɥśʷ3Ū01DFʰƾ14ņ0ʄśƟœķGƀʰƾ4 90

kW125okWͿLJŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZn|b3˺ȒKɥF$3Ouml3otildeĜ4 50-GPrinces

AmaliaQOoyM3˺4aRZnȢ1˖)GWACC3ƦŚOacute4ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3Ƿ]bn3ordmOacute-H4 NuonShellƯDzG OWEZecirc3Ǡœ3ȳQOoyM1ɥEHampOacute-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A Ǡœ3QOoyM4Ǣ MEP˩ɩ1ļ+˚ugraveKĖF97MWh135oMWhͿ3ijŚ

FITĽŌKƖampfynPdlOz3˚ugraveɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 3mg4Ľɯ˘$3reg3agraveɱ1eumlɥ-GƥĽ1ļ+A3-ƥĽ1ŸɮGľĜ4ʆHamp

ƥĽ1ļ+m[-˚)G

39

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘1ěƀ1ƦŚampD7ȳͶoumlɯ3OacuteKʆ2007ƀ3aRZn]bn4 2008ƀǨ

ɏ3n1G-ʆGUgrave 4-5 3ouml3źľEgraveȉ14ĕƊ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnǴŋʢ3otildeƊɞĠ=HG

Ugrave 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 1 15 120 NA Ͷļǘ ļ 1 5 60 NA ɯ szligːǨ 2000 2200 3350 NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 15 NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1120 (1557) 1325 (1842) 3315 (4608) NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 40 (56) 24 (33) 92 (128) NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) NA NA NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

Ugrave 4-4 JN6uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 5 5 5 NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 15 15 12 NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 50 NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 50 NA WACC ͼ 60 60 79 NA

Ǵ ƀ 10 15 10 NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 255 255 255 NA

FXn $US 139 139 139 NA

Ugrave 4-5 JN6uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (81) 56 (78) 59 (82) NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 663 (922) 28 (39) 97 (135) NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ 37 20 44 NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

43 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ƛ˞0˴ėKƖG3ampogP0)

G

40

431 JN6uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 4-2 JN6rmicroQ1plusmnecircxpsup327

(b) BL0+dj Uh3Ͷ3ːɞ4ʢ 25-FszligːǨ 2200 ǨͿđɔb3 30DFAfrac12FIT 1DG

˚ugrave4szligːǨ 2200 ǨKGG4 SDE ˠiacute3˳ʧKʾƬ$HDFAfrac12ˬŚHGͿamp2200ǨDFAŅɯGamp3PdlOz4ŚHGE1˞0˞į4B4FͶȯ-G

432 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4Đ3ĪͲ1EcircGė˃ƟGszligːǨ 2200Ǩsup2KɯGPdl

Oz4ŚHGͶ3ˬ˩$HHBBɮ0)Fƕ)EgraveȉŘ0Gė˃Ɵ4ǃ-0

Aring5ĝ ɯȗKAuml)AgzoũľĜƷ]bnfrac12szligːǨŀdivideG

(b) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ0)Gį4ĸdeg3-Fƀʢ 10kW15okWͿ-G

(c) ccedilntildeacirciacute-113T-1 đɔbȣGUh3Ͷoumlɯ4Ȱlaquoʌȣɱfrac12 (255ͼ) eumlɏAGǑĐ]bn

4ʾƬ0

433 s_F(=2E

Uh3ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ43ʍ͵3PdlOziacuteƄ3ơƣKĖG-G$30A34 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ-2007 ƀ=-1HK˞ȨampaRZn1ťMEP ˮȲ 81DF 10 ƀijŚotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligH2008 ƀsup21HK˞ȨampaRZn3ľĜ4SDE 1DF 15 ƀŃuumlotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligHG3 FITiacuteƄ1divideaRZn3ľĜ4ǰņƷ]bn 600kW834okWͿ1ťƷ]bn3 443ʌdž3Ʒ˚ugrave (EIA) D7otildeƊɞ 13fynKeumlɥG

ĎȲ27 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ ˮȲ 8 MEP (Milieukwaliteit Elektriciteitsproductie) Uh3oumlɣɤ1GȰƓ

41

-G

x 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup328

434 aringmH7B

Uh3yacuteYj42007 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn1˧5Ugrave 4-6 đɔͿʢ ndash36 MWhndash50oMWhͿPpb3Oacute10)GH4Đ3MEP3 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3ˬ˩3Ș1DGA3-˚ugraveͳ3ļɵ0)ampoumlEgraveȉK 2Έ3 MWh3Έ4 oMWhͿfrac12ƦŚamp1DGoumlEgraveȉ 6~8 MWh 1ǤG1HŪ0AoumlEgraveȉ4ͶoumlaRZn4ż1ͺoumlɱ0A310)ampƔʮiacuteƄ-G SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ1ļ+ 2008 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn143ȘĕFHyacuteYj4 ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿBBPpb3Oacute10)GěʍaRZn3ɯ]bn3Ž4ndash3 DFA4G1ņɏ1ȲƧG3ampndash3MWh4oMWhͿPpb3Oacute4eKņĮGA3-40 ȳͶoumlɯ3b3yacuteY4Ɗʯ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-)ampH4ɷDžƖampyacuteƥ

Ľ1ļ+A3-40Princes AmaliaQOoyM3Ȫʙ1İɣ amp4ǥE-G

44

Uh4ŧǽ1A 2020ƀ1AD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Dzdz0ɶȔOacuteKŚGɠķ3 SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ4HKśɠGamp3ǰA˞0k-G43 Eacute3ccedilǿʫȁEUh3brvbarAring1GyacuteYj4ʹ˒-40JG ugraveKƖampɯouml4szligːǨ 2200Ǩ=-1iacuteHG3ǘOacute4Uh3Ͷȯ1ċampA3-G2200Ǩsup23ɯ1ťGPdlOz4ŚHFHAƷ]bnfrac123į-Gė˃ƟGʰƾ4ĸdeg3ampȣɱ

0)G

ĎȲ28 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

42

Ugrave 4-6 JN6Iumlsectpsup329

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

91 (126)

94 (131)

166 (231) NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

127 (177)

96 (133)

161 (224) NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash36 (-50)

ndash3 (-4)

5 (7) NA

rOtildemiddot

Cleijne JW SM Lensink and CJ Faasen (2010) SDE Wind op land met vollasturen en differentiatie [SDE wind onshore with full load hours and differentation] ECN-E--10-001 Petten January 2010

Lensink SM JW Cleijne M Mozaffarian AE Pfeiffer S L Luxembourg and GJ Stienstra (2009) Eindadvies basisbedragen 2010 [Final advice SDE premium base rates 2010] ECNKEMA ECN-E--09-058 Petten November 2009

Rijksoverheid (2010) Nationaal actieplan voor energie uit hernieuwbare bronnen Richtlijn 200928EG [National Renewable Energy Action Plan Directive 200928EG] Den Haag June 2010

Statistics Netherlands (2010) online databank httpstatlinecbsnl VoorburgHeerlen August 2010

ĎȲ29 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

43

Aring 5Auml 1CN

51 1CNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bP3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯŮ1G=ampɚŚ3 EU 3ɶȔ1ļ+ CO2ǃaeligethȿ3amp

1 2020 ƀ 2030 ƀ1ƦŚHGɶȔOacuteKʆE1ˠiacute3ȂʩgtK˷ǥGraquo$30Ȓƭ˞ʥK˟ɷordfȾoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3]bn3ƐKŪ0Gamp1ɠķ˖JHGͿ E1 2008ƀ1GbPźľ3deg˘ɱ0QOoyM3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) K˷ǥ$3sup3

ŚKregĴ1GͶoumlɯ3]bnȣG

511 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac12frac34laquo

2009ƀǶǨɏ-Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4 19149 MW1bP3oumlʡʭ1 3ɭɶ1ņ0Ʌ0)GbP3Ͷoumlɯɯ4 90ƀdegĄ51Ő=F2001ƀsup24ǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşƀſĹ-ʢ 1800MWdivideHampˠiacuteǔȜHamp 2004ƀ 2007ƀ14Ĵɟplusmn 4362004D7 6612006Ϳ3şņŽ1ŀdivideamp3ˠiacute3ǔȜ1DF$HKeumlɥampǝˠaRZn3ʑ(EumlHamp

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯouml42009ƀ3bP3SrYʱ˞3ʢ 14KĈG x 5-14ŅĴȣ3ťƀ-G 2008ƀ=-1bP1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3H=-3ʦʏˬOtildeş

ƀŨTHORNşKʆG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3mg4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3SrY˖uuml˩ɩNREAPͿ1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)2020ƀ3currenɂ4SrY˞3 20Kaumlɣė˃SrY- EU3ɶȔƭ1ğampǘOacute-G

x 5-1 1CNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

x 5-1 4bP-H=-1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşD7notƔˬʹHG˟=HGˬOtildeşKʆG=ampƀŨTHORNşKx 5-21ʆ2009ƀbPǕƃ4 2010ƀE 2012ƀ=-3ěƀ1ˬʹG MWşKiacuteGamp3otildeƎKŚG1amp=ampoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3ƐKȿ Gamp3˩ɩKnotƔ3Ȱplusmn1ʩgtL-ɯ˘ampszlig3aumlɣė˃SrY]aRr`3

Ĝ˩ş 6000 MW4ʱoumlĕƊ3 25KĈH4ʪȽĊȗ-4ɚ1]bn-GͿ

44

bP1GȳͶoumlɯ30Ł4ņȍ0-F3ampȮų3ȦȻ 50m 10)Gƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ-4ͳ0ļʅ˞0F$3ampHE3aRZn3ś˖ė˃Ɵ4iacute

HGE1aacuteʡɏ-4ȺĀŇɓWbļĸ1ˬʹHG]uPo^PZWbgw3

ɯ1DG~nrjZœķGampNZdbşEHampA310)G

Ugrave 5-1 1CNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

16 22 34 49 62 85 100 116 151 167 23 35

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 5-2 1CNoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

16 06 12 15 13 23 15 16 35 16 15 14

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

512 s_CcedilN3N9A

Ȱɱ1currenƦHGEacuteɲKĖGamp14ͶoumlɯaRZnKɚecirc3iacuteƄ131ccedil͵Gƛ˞G

ʟĴ3ȉ˴ŚiacuteƄĝȓͿH4ͶoumlɯaRZnʡʭ1UacuteYacuteDžʯ-GũłbrvbarȐʿAacuteocircouml

KĕE250E0Ϳamp=ampEgraveȉˠiacuteHGamp-GĴɟƿplusmn 6612007-˘ǥHampD1Ͷoumlɯ3ǓƱbX14ˠiacuteǛbXźľĎɡ3 2G

ˠiacuteǛbX4QOoyMƯDzʿƸampǴ1GͶoumlɯ3ʻyacuteɱ0ijŚĕƊ

Egraveȉ-Gx 5-23ǘOacuteͿ ǰʨɱ0Egraveȉ 1Ǩ3ɪEgraveȉoumlPdlOz1ļ+oumlčźľEgraveȉ3ʩgtĜJ-Ȫ=GI3źľĎɡ4ĽŌ13AĤ5HGƕ)ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿĖĕGǛ4

Egraveȉ1ŷęHG10F3Egraveȉż1frac12ľĜ4ǰfrac12Egraveȉsup2-H5ˬ

EHGx 5-34ˠiacuteǛ3đɔOacuteKʆG

x 5-2 Ucircgntilde1)QEAcirc ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

45

ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ4ntildeǡźľ3ɯ˩ɩKNjaeligcurrenɂKɥ3˩ɩś3ɯouml3currenɂ˶ŸKȿE

D1GE1==0ĸĻ1ƈˬHampQOoyMɸuml1˚Ugrave-˶ŸKŪ0Gamp

1==0aRZn[ĀHG3`bl1DFN``bl3ȴɥ

ʬ˺ǙKǰĀG-$3]bn34ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿǓƱ)G2008 ƀ4ʢ 15 MWh205oMWhͿ-)amp ˫3Oacute4Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120071D)ȸʿEgraveȉƿǘ (CPI) 1ļ+ǭǝH2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝ

ɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp x 5-34Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073ǟ˖sup2Ɣ3 FITǛiacuteƄ3ŃuumlKʆampA3-G2007ƀĴɟƿplusmn 6612007

1DF CPI1Ȯ) FITǔ˨HG10F2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp2010ƀ14ǭǝHampOacutePpb10FntildeƀKĮ)ampH4 CPIe1)ampamp-G bP3ʡʭɥʿ-G Red Electrica de Espantildea (REE) 1DH5ˬ Otildeş3 94ijŚEgraveȉĕU`

1D)ɥHGampčoumlźľEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ƐH0x 5-4Ϳ

x 5-3 ~BINcentIcircceyuml~[umlāntildeĀ ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

x 5-4 dividejo~uumljfrac14divideethyuml2008Ā ǛΆ Spanish TSO (REE)

Ͷoumlɯ3ņccedil4čźľ-ɷDžłHGampĽ4Egraveȉ1ņŷęHŇɓWbEgraveȉȦouml

ɯ3ɛȯ0E71Ĵźľ1G CO2 Egraveȉ3Egraveȉ1ƐG3amp 2008 ƀ14ſǡEgraveȉ4 6443MWh8956oMWhͿ0F2007ƀ3 3935MWh5470oMWhͿK 64Į)ampH4ɠķ=-1˫HampEgraveȉ-ǰAͳ-G Ͷoumlɯ3źľĕƊEgraveȉKx 5-31oumlčEgraveȉKx 5-51ʆYacute1ampD1Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073brvbar

Aring-43Egraveȉ4E=-3ʜıatilde1GſǡoumlčEgraveȉ1ļ+EgraveȉĽŌ3Ĝ˩Oacute-G

46

x 5-5 dividejBQK[umllcedilyuml2003Ą2009Ā ǛΆOMEL and Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

52 1CN 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-2008 ƀ1GbP3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKHKreg3đdivideĴ1GͶoumlɯɯ3ěʍmȣG

521 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

ɚecirciquestiacute13`blKeumlɥGamp14bP3QOoyM3ˠȕ 50 MWK40E0ˬ ʹampQOoyM3ſĹˠȕ4ʢ 25 MW-˩ ʙQOoyM3ˬOtildeşK 2007ƀA 2008ƀA 30MWsup3ŚG Ğɶ3ɥǨ4Śȉaeligouml-ƀ 1700ǨE 2350Ǩ=-==-G2008ƀ3szligĴſĹ4 2085

ǨͿ=ampaRZn3đɔOacute4 2007ƀ- 2200Ǩ2008ƀ- 2150Ǩ-)amp bP-ɥEHGszlig3ʪȽm-4aRZn3ɥǴ4 20ƀGraquoH4Q

OoyM3śʷ4E0Ϳ2007ƀ 2008ƀ14aRZn3Py^PZK 20ƀG

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹˠȕ4 1985 kW-2007ƀ3 1621 kWEJ1ŀdivideamp3m-ȏ˪G34 2000 kW3Ͷ0J(3QOoyM-4 2 MW3Ͷ 15ļͿ-G

x 5-6 2008THORNOacuteuumlegrave2bszlig ǛΆ Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

47

(b) ccedil-1 ƀ3Ʒʱͳ0)amp34Zb III D7 IV ˮȲ 93ņĺͶoumlɯ˙ʹˬʹHampE-

FƎeacuteEĶʡʭ93ʡBěʍʌcurrenɂHampJ-40 $H1AJEƀ4ĎǺǛ]bn3frac121DFͶ3]bnȿŪG=ampǕĊȗˠiacute3

Ńǭ1DFͶ3˞Afrac12ampQOoyM93Ʒʱͳ1ĈGͶ3]bn4ʢ 70Έ73ͼ-G3]bn4ĎǺǛ3Egraveȉɠķ3[jo]o1Ɇ ampƛ˞0ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵ1šDž1EcircG

2007ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn14Ʒ]bn4 1233kW1714okWͿ2008ƀ14 1250kW1738okWͿLJŚHG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾAaeligoumlƶiacuteȒatildeoumlȸ3amp3oumlǛˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵŀamp1DFŀdivide

Gʰƾ4 2007ƀ 1910MWh2655oMWhͿ2008ƀ 1963MWh2729oMWhͿLJŚHG100ͼŃuumlͿHE3]bn4|3ŃuumlƟdegǯĦ3eumlɥė˃Ɵƛ˞HGɕʶƴ˗ʿBȗȋ˙ʹ)amp˞į1G Ͷoumlɯȗ3^Pc4ƼņGͶȯ3ǰAD^Pn4-1eumlɥHGampŚȉǨ4ȿŪ

G10G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȞĘɱ1bP-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯKbPĴatilde3˖3oumlD7ŘŚampȰɱȂ

ʩgt1ļ+aRZn3yacuteiquestiacute1D)˺amp$H1AJEȵuumlƟKȘamp˺iacute

Ƅ3amp13 2ƀ-ɛȯŃĀAgraveE3ƺIgrave1DGIgrave˯ƛ˞10)G ˺]bn42007ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ1ˬŚHG2007ƀ2008

ƀAǷOuml3ȣɞ4 2ť 8-G2008ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A źľ93ł1DGĔTHORN42007ƀ1 394MWh548oMWhͿ2008ƀ1 644oMWh895o

MWhͿ-)amp3ĔTHORN1ť2007ƀ1 348MWh483oMWhͿ2008ƀ14 215MWh299oMWhͿ˰EgraveHamp FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideHGFITǕʘǴ4(E3bA 20ƀ1ijŚHG

(f) Q54Q1 1ʆampmg4bPͶoumlɯąmiddot (AEE) D7 Intermoney śǟampʃʐ1ļ+A3-G

522 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

bP3ȳͶoumlɯSN4 62SN1ccedilotildeHHE3SN-4ͶoumlɯˠiacuteHGHE3SN1ťTHORNǸ˖JHG10G3śɱPq`NizK5currenɂHGQOo

yM3ˠȕ4ʢ 1000 MW-G

(b) ccedil-1 mg0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig mg0

ˮȲ 9 Zb III4sectʬ˵Ũɯȗ (DFIG) D7ccedilŚȉ3]ugKɥampͶZb IV4ĝǴɯȗD7y

Śȉ]ugE0GͶccedil͵HG3ccedil͵ǞȰ3˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

48

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mg0

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A mg0

(f) Q54Q1 mg0

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 5-25-54sup23 LCOEccedilǿ-ɥampm[3ntildeNjǼacuteKʆA3-G]bn3sup3Ś4szlig 2007

ƀ 2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZnK˘A3-2008ƀnǨ3-˘ʆG

Ugrave 5-3 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 30 30 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ 15 15 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ 2200 2150 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1233 (1714) 1250 (1738) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 191 (266) 196 (272) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA

Ugrave 5Ă4 1CNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 9 10 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 6 7 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 NA NA Ǵ ƀ 15 15 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 30 30 NA NA

FXn $ 139 139 NA NA

Ugrave 5-5 1CNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 53 (74) 54 (75) NA NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 34 (47) 35 (49) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ

ͼ 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 20 20 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 36 (51) 37 (52) NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

49

523 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 5-7 1CNrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup330

(b) BL0+dj bP3ͶoumlɯaRZn4đɔbDFAˬOtildeeumlɥɞfrac12ͶȯbP3szligːǨ1Ɛ

GampbP3 LCOE4đɔb3 LCOEDFA 18MWh25oMWhͿ0)Gđɔb3ſĹːǨLJŚ 2680Ǩ-G31ťbP4 2150Ǩ0)G szligːǨ4bP3 LCOE đɔb3 LCOE 3Ÿɮ13ǰA˞0Ńǘ-GͶȯ1divide

ʰƾAđɔbKĮ)FH14ĸdegD7ĸĻBˇȬiquest˞ȨGeumlɲɞAĠ=HG LCOE33˷ǥ0Gʖ 33˞į4˺]bn-F3ͳ4aRZn3WACCD7ǰʨɱ

1ě3Ʒ1˞ȨHGƷĔɲɞ (ROI) KŀdivideG

(c) ccedil-1 bP3Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4ʢ 1250kW1738okWͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 200

kW278 okWͿŘbP-4Ʒ]bnfrac12ampLCOE 4 10 MWh14 oMWhͿfrac120G ǑĐ]bn4QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘʨpoundamp3ɯˬOtilde3˥iquest]bnKĠampͳ-ʱƷ]

bn3ʢ 3ͼKĈG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bP3brvbarAring1Gyacuteɛȯ1ˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlɲɞ4đɔbDFA0)G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig bP-4ʰƾđɔbDFA0)GbP3ʰƾʱͳ14ʌĸdeg

ʚɡ]bnKĠamp3ŃuumlĠ=HGnotƔ3ʪethȿoumlˇŞȸǛ3ǤˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ

˜Ɵ3=F1DFʰƾAŀdivideG˟gt-G ſĹbP3ʰƾ4ʢ 196MWh272oMWhͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 7

MWh10oMWhͿ

ĎȲ30 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

50

524 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

Yacute1ampD1bP14 FIT iacuteƄͶoumlɯ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄͿźľiacuteƄźľEgraveȉͶoumlɯ3ĽŌͿ 23ǓƱiquestʡG2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ3ʢ 91ͼKźľiacuteƄ1DFłampH4ɯȐʿDFŅ3ĔTHORNKƖEHGamp-G x 5-8 4ĔTHORN3ŃǘȥǛͿͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOz3ŃǘbP1GźľiacuteƄ

3ĽŌͿKȣampA3-G

x 5Q-8 1CNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup331

525 aringmH7B

bP3mccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿ-G3EſĹbP3ͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOzEaRZnɯ

3yacute˞acuteKɄamp-G3ăccedil0Xj`yKƖGJG

53 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 5Ă6 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+psup332

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

76 (106)

83 (115) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

87 (121)

86 (120) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash11 (ndash15)

ndash3 (ndash4) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2009) ldquoEoacutelica 09 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Julio 2009)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileANUARIO20COMPLETO5B15Dpdf

ĎȲ31 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ32 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

51

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2008) ldquoEoacutelica 08 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Junio 2008)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee- publicaAEE_anuario_ingles08pdf

AEE ndash Intermoney (2006) ldquoEstudio de costes del sector eoacutelico Realizado por Intermoney para AEE (2006)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee-publica060612-Gen-EolicaEsp- PRALpdf

Comisioacuten Nacional de la Energiacutea (CNE) wwwcnees

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Red Eleacutectrica de Espantildea (REE) Spanish TSO wwwreees Royal Decree 6612007 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacionRD_661-2007-REpdf Royal Decree 4362004 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacion(36)RD436_2004pdf Spanish Market Operator (OMEL) wwwomeles

52

Aring 6Auml 1$QN

61 1$QNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bQRm3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙ0E71 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿK˷ǥG

611 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş42004ƀ1 474 MW)amp3 2008ƀǶ14 937 MW0)Gx 6-1ͿbQRmĆ3ȳQOoyM3ˬOtildeş4 2007ƀ14 110 MW-)amp=ampqN`N133Ƀ-3ɯAEHG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯcurrenɂ4EUdivideɳĴ3ěĴaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 3mg1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)

x 6-1 1$QNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_Uacuteuacute

ǛΆVinkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 and European Commission 2010 Ugrave 6-14bQRm1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=amp

Ugrave 6-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 6-1 1$QNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

220 220 272 322 381 429 470 560 698 951 2065 4365

ȳ 10 20 23 23 23 23 23 23 133 133 150 182

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

53

Ugrave 6-2 1$QNoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

ndashndashndash 05 51 50 59 48 41 90 138 253 278 288

ȳ ndashndashndash 10 25 0 0 0 0 0 110 0 4 4

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

612 s_CcedilN3N9A

bQRm-4aumlɣė˃SrY1DGɯ3ǓǎʘĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ (TGC) KŨTHORNG$3ɶɱ42016ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 17 TWh1ŀB-G3ɶȔOacuteK2020ƀ=-1ė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 25 TWh1GE1OacuteGampɠķ3iacuteƄ3ǔȜȏ˪HG=ampbQRmsQR3aacute`bl3Ȓʝ1ğampordfȾ˖J

HG 2008 ƀ=-4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ˖ɢĿĽŌ13AĤ5HGijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) Ͷoumlɯ

1ɥHamp3ɢĿĽŌ134ȳͶoumlɯ14 2009ƀ=-eumlɥė˃-)amp=amp 2003ƀ1vPjnaRZn3Ǔǎ˩ɩŐHampȳͶoumlɯţaringȥNtildeȎȀĸŻ-3Ͷoumlɯ)

ampˉģȻ˟0HampaRZn12008 ƀE 2012 ƀ=-3Ǵ1 3710 5160 oͿ3currenʙotildeƎEHG

2006 ƀʈǕƃ3ɢĿƐccedilǿ1Gˠiuml0E71ǝˠͶoumlɯaRZn3˴ėdbʞɬĀH25 MW=-3QOoyM4ˇȬiquest1ŭaeligH5ˬʹ-G0)amp ͶɅ3eumlɥ1GƥĽKƁcedilGampbQRmǕƃ3Ũ3Ͷoumlɯ3eumlɥ1GĴatilder

jnZĎȲ33ȒʝHamp3rjnZ1DFͶoumlɯ3˩ɩʘŚD7˴ŚʋuacuteOslashoumlbrvbarȐ3ɯ

Ůʰƾʚɡ1Gʀ˾KȻbQRm3ͶoumlɯɯaRZnKEumlH

G E1Ͷoumlɯ3]mOrgKɥɯbrvbarȐʿEcircƎŬ0E71ĸUcircĸĻĴ3ě|1

GEcircʿ3ordfȵEumlKIJ)G

62 1$QNVUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

621 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bQRm-43aRZn3szligːǨ4 2600Έ3050 ǨĽġHGżbQR

m3Ͷoumlɯj1ʆHGszligːǨ4ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿNjaeligampǘŒKĮ)

G3amp˩ʙ-4bQRm3aRZn3ǰʨɱ0ͶoumlɯǨKĽġHampʜı3 2600ǨͿG

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3aRZn42008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZn3]bnD7ɯoumlēǧ

Hampdeg˘ɱaRZnŚʻHamp Ƿ]bn4ampF 12171915kW1692Έ2662okWͿ=-Fmccedilǿ-4 1591kW2212okWͿsup3Śamp

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3ijŚccedil4ſĹ 0004 kW0006 okWͿŃuumlccedil4ʢ 11 MWh15 o

ĎȲ33 httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse đɔ

54

MWhͿLJŚG3Ńuuml4 7 MWh10 oMWhͿE 24 MWh33 oMWhͿ=-FvPjnaRZn1Gʰƾ4ż1ŃuumlņɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒

ɮ0)G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 Ugrave 6-51ʆD1mccedilǿ-4OumleumlőKƷŞżĽġG 5˟L-GͶoumlɯ1Ʒ

GparaȐ3middot˩Ľġ3ccedilǿ-420ͼƍOuml]bnʆHGbQRm3paraȐccedilǿEŨaeligampƛ˞0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞʫ7macrOumleumlőɞK 5LJŚampľĜͶoumlɯ3]bnKũ˰EgraveG10F20

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ǵŋʢ1DGźľ93oumlłŨTHORNHGĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ

23ĔTHORN3ȵH1D)KƖG(E3ĔTHORNɅAʄśƟż12008ƀ=-FITĽŌiacuteƄAɥHFͶoumlɯaRZn4 2 MWh3 oMWhͿŪͳ3ĽŌKĖamp

(f) Q54Q1 LCOE˩ʙ3mg4˫3D0ɥǓǎ˩ɩ3ʫȁD7Ĵatilde3_3amp1bQRmSrY

Ŭ=ampmg)amp˜ǘ3ƥĽɅ1ļ+A3-GǑĐ]bn4 Svensk Vindenergi (2009) 3mgKAumlɥampbQRm3Ͷoumlɯ˩ɩ1Gʭ˩Oacute4bQRmSrYŬȢƀɯ˘

GĽġǮ ES20103 ldquoVindkraft statistic 2009 (Wind power statistics 2009)rdquoD7 Vindkraft Statistik 20081ļ+G2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯǨ4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ3mgKAumlɥGE1Ͷoumlɯ3ɯȐbrvbarʿEʆmg3NjAEligKĖamp=ampEcircGotildeƊɞKǥE1Gampmiddot˩ǛKđɔampE14˚Ǜ O2 0E71 AriseȇƉźľ3ŨTHORN1GbrvbarȐaeligɘəEŦŞ3Ƨ˟KƊɥamp

622 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

2008ƀǨɏ-ŨTHORNHampbQRmǰņ3ȳaRZn4Lillgrunden3 11 MW3aRZn-)amp3aRZn4 Vattenfall 2004ƀ1Ɗʮ2007ƀ1ʡʭ1ʡHampLillgrundenaRZn-4 Siemens3 23 MWͶ MKII 48ļAumlɥHG$3( 13ļ4 2004ƀsup2ntilde1ʡʭ1ʡHGbQRm3ǰǝaRZn4 3 MW3Ͷ 10ļKOtildeamp GaumlsslingegrundaRZn-H4 VaumlnernɃ3Ģ 7Έ13m1ļʅKˬʹampqN`N133aRZn-G

Ugrave 6-3 LillgrundenBL0+Z

Lillgrundenmg Ά ļɆȷDF 115 m gɷƑΆ 924 m ʱʏΆ 6734 m2 iacuteƗǞȰΆ ėŃxjiD7ėŃƄ gƄΆ 6Έ16 rpm ǰņYacuteʔƄΆ 280 kmh gΆ 60 t pdΆ 82 t gΆ 110 t LJŚƀɯoumlΆ 6875500 kWh ˬOtildeeumlɥɞΆ 35ͼ ſĹͶΆ 85 ms

55

Ugrave 6-4 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 235 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 41 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2600 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1591 (2212) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 0004 (0006) NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 16 (222) NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 6-5 1$QNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 12 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 87 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 13 NA NA WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 47 NA NA

Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 28 NA NA

FXn SEKeuro ndashndashndash 942 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

Ugrave 6-6 1$QNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 50 (70) NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 25 (35) NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 2 (3) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 1 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

623 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

x 6-2 1ʆD1bQRm3 LCOE 4đɔbDFʢ 1 MWh1 oMWhͿfrac120)G

56

x 6-2 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1psup334

(a) BL0+dj bQRm3szligːǨ4đɔbDFAH4ͶoumlɯaRZn1eumlɥ-Gĵĸʏ

^[ampreg3Țŵ˽ĴDFAņampƎɓ3-G

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3Ʒ4oumlɯaRZnTGC `bl2001 ƀEŨTHORNͿ0E71Ǡœ3 NordPool

ʡʭ1995ƀEoumlĕƊͿ3amp1đɔbDFABB0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig đɔbbQRm3ʰƾ3Ÿɮ4ǰũ3A3-H4^1DGė˃Ɵʹ˒

-40

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bQRm3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12H4bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ93Ʒ1

GbZ3|frac12E-FbQRm3Ͷoumlɯɯ1GʪEƎɓ3˧G

x 6-3 1$QNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup335

ĎȲ34 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

57

624 s_CcedilN3N9A

ĔTHORN4 1Ϳoumlł1DGĔTHORN2Ϳ[˯Ǯł1DGĔTHORN3ͿFITE3Ūͳ3ĔTHORN2009ƀ1ƆțͿ3 3-ȒƭHG ĔTHORN4źľE33ȵH-GampʄśƟņ0b-4ȥǛ4 50 MWh

70 oMWhͿ-ŘŚG˟0H[˯ǮEgraveȉ4ʢ 25 MWh35 oMWhͿ)amp2009ƀ1OacuteHamp

625 aringmH7B ſĹɱ0aRZn14ouml3źľEgraveȉ TGCiacuteƄ3˚UgraveKʩgtĜJG-ăccedil1]bnK

-GD-G

Ugrave 6-7 1$QNIumlsectpsup336

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 75

(104) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash8

(ndash11) NA NA

63 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 6-7 1ʆampD1bQRm3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˇŹǷ]bnD7Ouml]bnfrac12amp1ǷdivideſĹĎEgrave (WACC) ȣɱfrac120)GD-GaRZn3AEligʬ4Ouml1DGǷ˺1DGA3-macr3˺Ǵ4 20ƀ-G$HDFAmacrǴʁľĜA$EG˕Ǵ3ʨpoundǨ1ʸFHG bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ4ȞĘ=ampƀƞ1ƭG2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrY

ɅK 25 TWh1GɶȔKƭGamp14ͶoumlɯKE1ɯŮƛ˞G

rOtildemiddot

Dagens Industri wwwdise 2010-03-16 Storm kring vindkraftsbolag

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

E24 wwwe24se 2010-03-16 Vindkraftsbolagen anklagas foumlr glaumldjekalkyler Nationellt naumltverk foumlr vindbruk (national network for winduse) httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse

Svensk Vindenergi 2009 Vindkraftverk ndash kartlaumlggning av aktiviteter och kostnader vid nedmontering aringterstaumlllande av plats och aringtervinning

Vinkraftstatistik 2009 ES 20103 2010 Swedish Energy Agency available at

ĎȲ35 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ36 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

58

httpwwwenergimyndighetenseGlobalPressPressmeddelandenVindkraftsstatistik202009p df

Vindkraftstatistik 2007 ES 20082 2008 Swedish Energy Agency available at httpwwwenergimyndighetenseen

59

Aring 7Auml 11

71 11uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bPb3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙacirciquestɱ14 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿ3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1GbPb4atildeĴ-GampȳaRZn4œķ0ǪˤIgrave3ampɃȭĸĻ4ɠķͶoumlɯ^PnEńHG

711 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş41996ƀ3 2 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 14 MW1ŀdivideampͶoumlɯ1DGƀɯouml4 2000ƀ3 18 GWhE 2008ƀ3 2020 GWh1ŀdivideampH1ť 2008ƀ3ʱ˞ouml4 587 TWh-Gɠķ˩ɩEHGaRZn1D)2012ƀ14 65 MW3ɯė˃10GLJŚHGǕƃ3SrYǕʘ-4 2030ƀ1 44 MWKɯGɶȔKljG

x 7-1 11uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

Ugrave 7-14bPb1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 7-24ĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-1 11IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

28 28 451 455 456 866 116 116 116 136 176 65 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

60

Ugrave 7-2 11oacute_ethyumlMWĀ

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

28 00 170 065 001 350 290 002 000 200 400 150 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

712 s_CcedilN3N9A

bPb-4 2008 ƀ1oPkĝȓ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄFITͿKŨTHORNamp3`bl4LJŚHG LCOEKamp3A3-GFIT 1Ġ=HG34oumlźľEgraveȉ[ouml3Oacute-GͶoumlɯ14bPb3 FIT4 110MWh153oMWhͿΈ130MWh181oMWhͿ1ijŚHG

72 11VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

721 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZn42 MW3Ͷ 6ļKOtildeamp Juraű˅Ȕ 1000Έ1200 mͿ3

QOoyM-GbPb1GͶoumlaRZn3L2 MW3ͶgɷƑ 82 mtzʢ 8 0mͿKɥG3ĸĻ-4NZdbiacuteHGamp1gɷƑg31ˬEHFŚȉaeligouml 800Έ1000 kWtz 40~60 m3ͶKeumlɥG

(b) ccedil-1 bPb1Gdeg˘ɱ0aRZn3ě3Ʒ]bn4ampF 1790 kW2488 kWͿ-G

Țŵ1GͶ93Ʒ]bn3otildeĜ4ſĹʢ 76bPb-4 55~6810)G34bPb3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn93NZdbďiacuteHGamp=ampbPb-4laquoacuteż1amp-G

3ampɯƯ3ʪȣɱ0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ14bPb-4śʷŪ0ampEWEA agrave˘ampʰƾ3ȣ1ļ+bPb3ʰƾK 31MWh43oMWhͿsup3Śamp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 sup23˘4bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥamp˺]bnKʆG

Ugrave 7-3 ccedilntildeacirciacute-1YacuteEgrave

źľeuml 5 ƛ˞0Ƿeumlɲɞ 7

Ƿ3otildeĜ 30 ˀɥƀǘ 20ƀ ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ 20ƀ

Py 0 Ǵ 20ƀ

ȰlaquoʌɞOECDͿ 21

61

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A bPb14aumlɣė˃SrYɯ3brvbarȐeumlɥ-Gɜʑ3ĔTHORN`bl 2ʍ͵G 64 FIT `bl-H4sup23]bn˩ʙ3ļɵ0GA3-3ȽKĖEHG34Ȧoumlɯ

10 MWsup2atildeͿňɖɯͶoumlɯuPUb0E71uPUbƆǺ-Gaumlɣė˃SrYɅ[vͿ1DGɯ1ɥė˃03Ǜ`bl4ɯǞƉaeligoumlecirc1đɔˬOtilde1ļ+acirciquest

ɱ1ˠŚHěƴ˗3 LCOEK-Gshyʩgt10)GȽ4ɯǞƉ1D) 20Έ25ƀ3Ǵ1ɥHGcurrenƦHGƴ˗db0E71HE3ƴ˗3źľĀEuml1DFHE3Ǜ`bl

-4ͳ3Ƞɱfrac12currenƦHGǛ3ȿͳɥHG34ɰampɯˬOtilde3gt-FHE3ˬ

Otilde4ȽǴK ŚampǛ`bl1DFȽKĖGɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKLľĜ$HĝǨ1oumlźľ-[oumlKłG4-00G ʖ 2 3ĔTHORN`bl4[oumlźľ-GɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKeumlɥ-0ľĜ4źľ-

oumlKłG10Gż$3ĔTHORN4ɯbrvbarȐʿoumlmiddotʇ3ordfȾ1D)ȪŚHGoumlĽŌK

ouml3źľEgraveȉ1divideampͳ-G

(f) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşmg4 Swiss Wind Energy Association ldquoSuisse Eolerdquo1DGA3-GƷ]bn

ʰƾ3mg4 2008ƀ1˩ɩHampͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ȇ1DGA3-G˺]bn4 FIT˩ʙD7 Swiss Federal Office of Energy3mTHORNouml3sup3Ś1ļ+A3-G Ugrave 7-47-64bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOELJŚ1ɥampmĀ1Gsup3ŚKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-4 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 2 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 6 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 1750 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1790 (2488) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 31 (43) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 7-5 11uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 7 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 30 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 70 NA NA Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 21 NA NA

FXn CHFeuro ndashndashndash 067 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

62

Ugrave 7-6 11uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125 (174) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash Ńuuml NA NA

ɯȐʿTHORNȐʿ-ordfȾ

73 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯ]bn4ʢ 120MWh167oMWhͿ-đɔbDFA 58MWh81oMWhͿ0)G

731 -1plusmnecirc

x 7-2 11uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecircpsup337

(a) BL0+igraveeacuteOgrave bPb-ɯHampouml4đɔbDFA˒Ū00)GH4ͶoumlɯʋƄ-Gamp

-GszligːǨ 1750ǨͿ

ĎȲ37 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringěĴ LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0G

ľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

63

(b) ccedil-1 bPb3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAH4Ņ3^Pn93NZdbİ

˜-GD7laquoacuteamp-GbPb3aRZn4ũˠȕ03-ņˠȕ0aRZ

nȣͶTHORNǨ3otildeƊɞfrac120)G

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig bPb3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAɯƯ-4ɼȧcentȵĪͲ10)F$3ampʰƾʚɡ

]bn0)GbPb-4ʰƾ1Gśʷ4L0

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bPb3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ4 7HGraquoL3a

RZn4yacute3ɡɦ1DFƷ0oumlmiddotʇ˺Goumlmiddotʇ4[ouml3˞3

=F1ƚKŠG

732 s_F(=2E

bPb1GͶoumlɯ3 FIT4 110~130MWh153Έ181oMWhͿ-mĀccedilǿ-4 125MWh174oMWhͿKɥGĔTHORN3DF˳˷ǥ4 721ugrave(e) Kđɔ3|-4$Hsup2ń3yacuteǓǎ`bl40

x 7-3 11uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup338

733 aringmH7B bPb-4ǕʘPdlOz1DF LCOE K)Gx 7-3 EbPb3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaR

Zn-4 FIT1DF LCOEK˚)GJG

ĎȲ38 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

64

73

Ugrave 7-7 11uumljBL0+psup339

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 120

(167) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125

(174) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash5

(ndash7) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

Die Website fuumlr Windenergie-Daten der Schweiz Accessed at wwwwind-datach

Erlaumluternder Bericht zur Revision der Anhaumlnge EnV Bundesamt fuumlr Energie 2102009

Swiss Energy Act of June 26 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_0html

Swiss Energy Ordinance of December 7 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_01html

ĎȲ39 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

65

Aring 8Auml Ecircz

81 Ecirczuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4ʟĴ1GD7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1$3]bn3ɚƙɚ1 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3ŚK˷ǥGȳͶoumlɯ14ʟĴ-4=$3ɯ1Gśʷ ampʞć1˦HG3gtG=ampAring 1 Auml1ʆampđɔbȣamp2008ƀ3ʟĴ3]bnccedilǿʫȁK˷ǥG

811 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

ʟĴ1GʦʏˬOtildeş42000ƀ3ʢ 25 GWE 2008ƀǶ3 25 GW1ŀdivideampx 8-1Ϳ2005ƀsup2ěƀƄ3ƀˬOtildeş4˫Kǭǝʯ2008ƀ14ǝamp1 85 GWdivideHampĎȲ402008ƀ14ǝˠɯşszligiquest3 42KͶoumlɯĈGſĹɱ0ƀ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeş1DFʟĴ3ʱȸouml3ʢ 19ͼKAEligʬ-GHG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)2008ƀ3ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4szlig3ͶoumlɯƯ1GǘOacute-GȳͶoumlɯaRZnA˩ɩHFɠķ4$3˴ėĕƖ

Ƞ1G x 8-1 4ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3Đ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71 2012 ƀ3currenɂD7 2030 ƀ

3ɉķɱ`pUKʆG

x 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

ʟĴ4ǥʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3ɶȔOacuteKˬŚ0ƕ)x 8-1 4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴŞɶȔOacute3degJF3mgɏKʆampA3-GSrYƥĽŬ (EIA) 3ʁǴcurrenɂ1DH52012 ƀ1ǝamp1ʢ 10 GW divideHGampˬOtildeş4 2008ƀDFAGʋƄŀdivideG˟gt-G (EIA 2009)ĎȲ41Ǵcurrenɂ1Gƀ3ʃʐ-

ĎȲ40 ś3IʟĴ-4 2009ƀA3timesğʯFǝamp1divideHampͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4 10 GWƍ10

(AWEA2010)ǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ŅĴȣ3ťHamp 2008ƀ1GA3-G ĎȲ41 Yacute1ampD12009ƀ1ɯHampͶoumlɯ3ˬʹş4 10 GWƍ10 (AWEA 2010)

66

4ɉķɱ0Ͷoumlɯ`pU3ccedilǿ1ļ+2030ƀ=-1ʟĴ-˟=HGouml˞3 20KͶoumlɯ-Ʉamp-GG (DOE 2008)3ʃʐ3LJŚ1DH520Pbn1Gamp14Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 305 GWƛ˞10GD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Ĝ˩Ϳ=amp3ʃʐ-42018ƀ=-1ƀˬOtildeşʢ 16 GW1ŀdivideGLJŚG Ugrave 8-1 4ʟĴ1GĐD7notƔcurrenɂHGʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 8-2 4Đ

D7notƔcurrenɂHGƀŨTHORNşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

25 26 43 47 64 68 92 117 169 255 595 251

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

Ugrave 8-2 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

NA 01 17 04 17 04 24 25 52 86 103 16

ȳ NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

812s_CcedilN3N9A

ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ3ampGĔTHORNɅ4oumlłaumlɣė˃SrYźľ˯ǥ (REC) -Gouml3ʪȽEgraveOacute REC3ł4ĸĻźľ$3reg3Ǽacute1DFaRZnȢ1ɮ0)G ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ4Ǖƃ3ʌiacute3UacuteLjʹ1D)ǓEHG2008 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ

ƴ˗143UacuteLjʹPy˺Ǚɣɤʌͳdž PTCͿ ɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČɥė˃-)amp (Schwabe et al 2009)

PTC4 2004ƀ=-1AgraveƄɄǴ1ampH3ľĜAǭǝHamp2000ƀE 2004ƀ=-1Aɯņ1EumlHamp2004ƀsup24 PTCżǨɥ-GD10)ampamp2005ƀE 2009ƀ1ʟĴ3ƀŨTHORNş4˫ɱ1ŀdivideamp (AWEA 2010) Ǖƃ3Ǖʘȿʌ4$3ť0Gaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗1˞0ʪȽɱEacuteɲKAampEGɠķ

EgraveOacute1ļ+ͶoumlɯaRZn14PTC divideUgraveČ3sect3Eacuteɲ1DFļɆaRZn3ˬʹ]bn3 35KG˟gt-G (Bolinger 2010)ľĜ1D)4PTCdivideUgraveČ3˜Ĝɱ0ʪȽucircȁouml3ł REC3ĔTHORN1ʗ0GG4$HKĮG10G (Harper et al 2007)ĎȲ42

82 Ecircz 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ƿʛ-42008 ƀ3ʟĴ1Gdeg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKGǷĽġǮ3reg3Ĵ3ȣ3ampʟĴ3ſĹɱG4deg˘ɱ0aRZn3ɚƙKsup21˷ǥGraquoȜʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3aR

Zn]bnɚƙ4ĸĻ1D)ɮ0FˬOtildeşAņ

ĎȲ42 H4Ͷoumlɯ3oumlȥǛĸUcirc3 RECEgraveȉ)ampĸĻ1D)ɮ0GǘŅ3˞į1ŷęHG

67

821 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ1G3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ſĹˬOtildeş4 1998Έ1999ƀ3ʢ 35 MWE 2007ƀ3 120 MW

=-F2008ƀ14 83 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ1ˬʹHampͶ3Śȉş4 05 MWǵɄE 3 MW=-F2008ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn-4ſĹ 167 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ3ǰAˊɱ0Ͷ4Śȉaeligouml 15 MWgɷƑ 77 mtz 80 m (GE2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) -G

(b) BL0+Ouml ͶɅ34aRZn1D)ņ1ɮ0)Gszligiquestɱ14ʟĴ-4ɡƦɱ0Ͷȯ10)G

ʟĴ3aRZn3szligːǨ4ʢ 1800Έ4400 ǨŃuumlņ2008 ƀ14şdivideſĹ 3066 ǨˤŤHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ43szligːǨ3LJŚOacute4 2007ƀ1ˬʹH 2008ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+A3-ʟĴszligiquest3ͶɅ3ɉķƟK|b1ampA3-40ɏ1ɫƧ-

G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn4ƀɼś1ŀdivideG2008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZ

n14Ʒ]bn4ǰfrac12ʢ 1000kW1400okWͿE 1800kW2500okWͿƍ=-FşdivideſĹ4 1378kW19195okWͿ-G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ44

Ľġ1DH5Ͷ3ĕƊEgraveȉAƀǤtimesğ1)amp2008 ƀ3˕Ċȗ0E71$H1sup1ǪȥƔ1DG˞frac123Ɛ-Ͷ3EgraveȉD7AEligʬ3frac12ɣ G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009 Bolinger 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ14ijŚŃuuml3ǞĠ=H(E-˘ADş|b3]bn

kWͿ14Igraveɤʌ$3reg3ǟˬ]bnˬOtildeordfnjǔŃouml|b3ĸdegʗĠ=HGʟĴ-eumlɥė˃03ʰƾ3mg4EHG3ampǷĽġǮ1ʆʰƾ4LJŚOacute1

ˁĕFʫȁʆĨGD1ǨǴūǣ3ĦordfnjKĠampʰƾĽġHampmg1ăccedilēǧH

0ė˃ƟGE1notƔ4Ͷ3ʽǹĀBIgrave˯Ǵ3ʨpound1DFʰƾ3LJŚOacuteǤGė

˃ƟG 2000ƀdeg1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯaRZn1Wiser Bolinger4 2000Έ2008ƀ3şdivideſĹ

ʰƾK 58MW80oMWͿ˟L-G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009) raquo3ʰƾ14ˊɱ1ɤʌĠ=H03]bnKĠGamp1Wiser Bolinger 3

LJŚOacute1ƀſĹ 50kW70okWͿ3ɤʌ3LJŚǓƱͳĎȲ45divideʙHGɤʌKĠamp

ʰƾʱͳ4Ńuuml-˘5 74MWh103oMWhͿijŚ-4ƀ 226kW314okWͿ-GĎȲ46ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3ʃʐ-42010ƀ=-3ʰƾKʢ 69MWh96oMWhͿBBfrac12˟ʏA)G (DOE 2008)ĎȲ47

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯɯaRZn3˺-4ˇŹ3otildeĜKaRZn|

b3OumlKlteampˇŹ3otildeĜ0)G34114ȞĘɱ1ɣɤʌdžǜʯɱ1˖JHampamp-GOuml1DG˺4ͶoumlɯaRZn3˺ǴKƊ=amp

˜1Gė˃ƟFE14ʪȽɱEgraveOacute3G PTCǴKŗH00GƠHG (Harper et al 2007) Ouml1DG˺KŪ0GǞğƟɣ amp34aRZnɯi`blSrYD

7Ǩ14ɢĿ˞ʥKĠͿ3aeligouml3˃ouml13KʰƾGKdzLamp-$3ampSrYŋʢǛ

ĎȲ43 ˬOtildeeumlɥɞ 35ͼ1ļ+ ĎȲ44 ]bn4szlig 2008ƀƄ3D7o-˘ʆ2008ƀ 12DZ 31ǡsup23onjʙ1ɥampɐǯn4 1

139o (Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ45 NREL3atildemg|bELJŚampɤʌǓƱͳ3ſĹ ĎȲ46 2008ƀ3ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71szligːǨTHORNoumlsup3Ś1ļ+ ĎȲ47 ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71 2008ƀƄ3szligːǨTHORNoumlLJŚOacute1ļ+ 2008ƀo1ŃnjampLJŚOacute

68

1ijŚG40)ampE-GʟĴ3Ouml3ư4ż`bl3szligaeligouml1ťSrYŋʢEgraveȉ

Kbrvbarntilde1ȪŚK˞ȨG (Cory and Schwabe 2009)E14 2008ƀƔĄ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ouml1DG˺4Ĵ˕źľ3˕ȴuumlbZĮ3amp˕Ċȗ3ntildeȣ˒İ10

)G (Schwabe et al 2009) mccedilǿ-4 100ͼǷƷKsup3ŚG3˺4 2008 ƀ1ʟĴ1ǃregɱ1-40ʸF

˖JHampȷń-4$Hˊɱ-40)ampͿmĀccedilǿ-42008ƀ1ƛ˞HampˇŹǷeumlɲɞK 75ͼsup3ŚG(Chadbourne and Parke 2009)3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ42008ƀ 10DZ3˕Ċȗ$31 100Έ200`bPnĽġHGǷ1DG˺]bnņŽ1ŀdivideampͿ3ƐKĖamp1ɫƧ-G (Chadbourne and Parke 2009 Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

(f) s_CcedilN3N9A ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3˞0ĔTHORNɅ41ͿǴŋʢG4źľ|b3Egraveȉ1ļ+oumlD

7aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3ł2Ϳɣɤʌdž3žĀ3ͿɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3dividełČ3 3ʍ͵-GʟĴ-4ouml RECł1DGĔTHORNĸĻD7źľ1D)˒ɮ0)Gouml14ˠiacuteHGH0REC14ˇɯɱaumlɣė˃SrYotildeƎʻyacuteKŗGͿmccedilǿ-4ĹʗdivideſĹͶoumlɯEgraveȉ3LJŚOacute4 ǴɱŋʢEgraveȉouml REC3ǞKĠͿčźľEgraveȉouml3gtͿ1 RECKecircdivideampEgraveȉ3Oacute10Gsup3ŚGĎȲ482008ƀ3ͶoumlɯEgraveȉ3ſĹ4ʢ 419MWh582 oMWhͿLJŚHGĎȲ49Py˺Ǚɣɤʌdž42008 ƀ14ʢ 151 MWh210oMWhͿHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)Ś3Ƿ]bn3divideUgraveČ4 6ƀ˩ɩ-˖JHm-4 1Έ6ƀɶ1$HH 20ͼ32ͼ192ͼ115ͼ115ͼ3otildeĜ-UgraveČHGĎȲ50

(g) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3mĀccedilǿ-4==0mgfbKɥampɚ1eumlɥė˃0agraveɱǛKUacuteYacuteamp

1ʆampszlig3mgfb3bnKǷʒ3đʾǚɝ1ʆaRZn3ɚƙaRZn3Ɵ˃

Ʒ]bnʰƾ)ampŃǘ14Wiser and Bolinger 20093ecirc˘1E1˳˷ǥG

822 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

ɠķ=-3IʟĴ-4ĩɥˠȕ3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥAring40ƈˬ3aRZnA

0ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3Ľġ-4= 2012Έ2018ƀ1ĩɥȳͶoumlɯ3ɯaRZnȶȦĻƴ˗KɥǾȷųȫ-ɱ1˖JHG10GǴƒHGđʾ3amp-4currenƦHGȳ

ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKʆampʟĴ-ɥHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn4=œķ0

ampHE3LJŚOacute4 LCOEmccedilǿ1Ġ0

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ3ȳͶ4|b3aRZnDFAņˠȕ0A310FDFˍō0ͶȯKeumlɥamp

ė˃10GGAring5^idjkŵ-ȏ˪HGCape WindȳͶoumlɯaRZn-4Ͷ3^PcK 36 MWGɯ˘0Hamp (Cape Wind 2010)szligːǨ3ʜı4 3000ǨEʢ4800ǨLJŚHG (DOE 2008)

(b) ccedil-1 ȳͶoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4Ńuumlņ2000 ƀdegĄ5E4ğtimesğ1GʟĴȚŵ-NjȊH

GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn13ƀ3˺Ȇ1DH5Ʒ]bn4ʢ 3100 kW

ĎȲ48 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3 43ͼ3aRZnƯDzʿ4GʋƄ3ĩȐbZK10G=amp

oumllO[ƺƎʿA3bZKė˃ƟGHE3ƺƎʿ4 2008ƀ1ͶoumlɯˬOtildeşKǝamp17ͼTHORNamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)3ccedilǿ-42008ƀ3ǝˠͶoumlɯ3 50ͼKźľ|b3Egraveȉ0J(ĩȐEgraveȉͿȟF3 50ͼKǴɱŋʢEgraveȉsup3ŚG

ĎȲ49 2008ƀ3Egraveȉ1Gsup23sup3Ś4Wiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+A3-sup23Fsup3ŚG(1)ǴɱͶoumlɯŋʢEgraveȉoumlRECͿ= 515oMWh(2)čłbjnźľEgraveȉ =5oMWh(3)aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ = 5oMWh

ĎȲ50 3UgraveČ˩ɩ4ƀĄ53ƫAring1ļ+A3-2008ƀ 2009ƀ1eumlɥė˃)amp 50ͼĽŌUgraveČ4ʾƬ0

69

4300 okWͿ-H4notƔǘƀ1ƈˬcurrenŚHGaRZn1GOacute-GĎȲ51H1ť

US Offshore Wind Collaborative-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn4 3300kW4600okWͿ10GcurrenɂG (USOWC 2009)

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn=ɥH0ampʰƾ3currenƦ4˒ʄśƟG

ɯ˘HGmg40ʟĴȚŵ-NjȊHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ1G

ǰ3˟ʏF1DH5ʱ]bn4ʢ 137MWh19oMWhͿ10GĎȲ52

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯ3ɯD7ɥ1bZ˟=HF=ampɯBɥ3ʪA0amp

Ǝeacute3(4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bnaRZnDFA4G10GcurrenƦ

HGȳͶoumlaRZn3˺-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3cedilʭɱ0ƷưȠ0J(Igrave

middotʇͿ-40bZ˭şƄ3ƷưȠ0J(Ȥ3ˇŹǷͿeumlɥHGƝJHGAring5Ȥ

3ˇŹǷƷ1ƛ˞HGeumlɲɞ4ś˯Gƴ˗1 25Έ350GcurrenƦHG (Justice 2010)=ampʟǕƃ4ĩɥD7ǝɱaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗3$Hͳ-0Ouml1DGǷ˺KǓǎ

Gamp3˕OgraveTHORNIgrave˯KNjAEligG(EAȳƴ˗1ɥ-Gė˃ƟAGͿraquoɠ˖Ȱ-4

˕Igrave˯˩ɩ3˺3eumlɥė˃Ɵ0E71ɧ˻ʿ3ȉEHG (DOE 2010) ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɥė˃0|ŵ|3PdlOz4ȳͶoumlɯaRZ

n1Aeumlɥ-Gsup3ŚHGǕƃ3PdlOz14˫3 PTCɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČĠ=HGɚ1ǾȷųȫcopyņɃĸĻ3ŵ4ě3ʚĂ1GȳͶoumlɯaRZnKEuml

Gamp3==0ǞȰKeumlɥHE3aRZnKŨG (USOWC 2009)

(e) Q54Q1 ȳͶoumlɯ3ɚƙ1G˞0mgɅ4ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution

to US Electricity SupplyrdquoĽġǮ (DOE 2008)US Offshore Wind Collaborative3US Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo0E71ʟĴ3ȳͶoumlɯ1Gěʍ3Ľɯ˘ʗ-GraquoǰƔ3A314ȲƧƛ˞-G

Ugrave 8-3 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ53

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ54 ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 165 167 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ͷļǘ ļ 73 50 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ɯĎȲ55 szligːǨ 2891 3066 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1241 (1725) 1378 (1915) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʰƾ ijŚͿĎȲ56 eurokW ($kW) 50 (70) 50 (70) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʰƾ ŃuumlͿĎȲ57

euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (80) 58 (80) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

$3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆWiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ51 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ52 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ53 Yacute1ampD1]bn4szlig 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆ ĎȲ54 3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙ4ntildeʛ1ʆGȳͶoumlɯ4ʟĴ3 LCOEccedilǿ14Ġ0 ĎȲ55 eumlɥɞ 2007ƀ 33ͼ2008ƀ 35ͼsup3ŚG (Wiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) ĎȲ56 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampş|b3ʰƾ4 2007ƀ 2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG ĎȲ57 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampɯouml|b3ʰƾ42007ƀ2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG

70

(f) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 8-38-5 4ș1G LCOE ccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3sup3ŚKʆG]bn3sup3Ś4HA 2007 ƀ

2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1GA3-2008ƀƄ3o-˘GmD7ǞȰ3˳˷ǥ4Aring 1AumlKđɔHamp

Ugrave 8-4 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 100 100 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash WACC ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

Ǵ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ȰlaquoʌɞĎȲ58 ͼ 389 389 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FXnĎȲ59 $US 139 139 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆChadbourne and Parke 2009 Harper et al 2007 Schwabe et al 2009

Ugrave 8-5 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

oumlźľEgraveȉĎȲ60 euroMWh ($MWh) 382 (531) 419 (582) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

źľEgraveȉ˯ǥĎȲ61 euroMWh ($MWh)

˫1 Ġ=HG

˫1 Ġ=HG ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FITǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml |bͿĎȲ62

euroMWh ($MWh) 144 (200) 151 (210) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ 10 10 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 6 6 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆHarper et al 2007 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ58 LJŚHampǕƃŵǕƃ3ʌɞ4$HH 35ͼ 6ͼ-Gɏ1ɫƧ (Harper et al 2007)ŵʌ4ĔTHORNEdž

HGamp˜Ĝśucircʌɞ4 389ͼ-G ĎȲ59 szlig3]bn4 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆGamp2007ƀA 2008ƀA 2008ƀǶ3ɐǯnKɥamp

(Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ60 2007ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3EgraveȉˬŚ1Gsup3ŚAWiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+˥amp ĎȲ61 aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3LJŚͳKouml3źľEgraveȉ3˩ʙ1ĠG ĎȲ62 PTCnjʙOacute4 13frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORN

71

823 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯTHORNoumlvgKɥ2007 ƀ 2008 ƀ3 LCOE K˩ʙamp2008 ƀ3ʟĴ LCOE2008

ƀ3ʟĴ3sup3ŚKszligAumlɥͿKđɔb2008 ƀ3đɔb3szligsup3ŚKAumlɥͿȣamp$3ʫȁ4sup23F-G Ĵecirc3ěTHORNoumlŃǘKě3đɔb3sup3ŚEʟĴ3sup3Ś9ŀccedilɱ1degTHORNđɔbʟĴ3 LCOE

3Ÿɮ93ěŃǘ3ƐKLJŚ-GD1ampʟĴ3 LCOE 4 3 MWh4 oMWhͿ-đɔb3 LCOEDFAfrac12x 8-2đɔͿ

x 8-2 EcirczrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup363

(b) BL0+dj ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4ſĹˍō0Ͷȯ3ơƣKĖG-G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ|b3

aRZn-4ſĹ 3066 Ǩ3szligːǨǴƒHGđɔb-4 2628 ǨͿʟĴ-4aRZn3aeligouml0G LCOEđɔbDFAʢ 8MWh11oMWhͿfrac120G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAʢ 72 kW100o kWͿfrac120)G

2008ƀ3ſĹƷ]bn4đɔb 1449kW2029okWͿ-G31ťʟĴ-4 1378kW19195okWͿ-GǑĐ]bnͶoumlɯˬOtilde3ǑĐ]bnaRZn^Pn3ƘUcirc]bnĠ=HGͿ4szliggt3Ʒ]bn1Ġ=HGsup3ŚHGƕ)ʟĴ-4Ʒ]bnfrac12

G1HLCOEđɔbDFAʢ 2MWh3oMWhͿfrac120G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3˺]bn4ˇŹǷ|amp2008ƀ4 100ͼͿ=ampđɔb-4

Ouml1DG˺KɥGampđɔbDFA0)G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯaRZn3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ75ͼͿ4đɔb3Oumleumlɲɞ55ͼͿDFA 200|`bPn0)G ʟĴ-4ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 2007 ƀE 2008 ƀ1ŀdivideampH4ǕĊȗ1DFƕǽ3ǷƷŞ

ĎȲ63 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

72

KŊ)ampamp-G (Schwabe et al 2009)H4=ampư0Egraveȉ3frac34Ŗ)ampreg3ʊʌdžƷAĝȓ3ơƣKƖEHGD1GʟĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY3ʌdžǕʘ3Ɵ1DGA3-3Ǖʘ1DF 2007ƀ1ʢ 6ͼ3eumlɲNjAEligHHȇƉƷeumlɲɞ3KŚG10)amp (Chadbourne and Parke 2007)ʟĴ3˺]bn0GʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 8MWh11oMWhͿ0G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAfrac120)Gʰƾ4ijŚG4Ńuuml-˘-

G3ampđɔb3ȣ-4ŃuumlǼacute-˘ampnjʙćǛ3LJŚOacuteampʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJ

Śʱͳ4 7MWh10oMWhͿđɔb3 13MWh18oMWhͿK4G1Į)ampraquoĽġ1DH5ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯɤȐ4ʰƾʚɡ]bn3˟ʏF1G˞˹Ͳ1ɠķAɷFĽ

ġHampmg4Ǩřszlig-Gamp3LJŚOacute4ƪ1˥Gƛ˞G =ampʰƾ4aRZn3ˠȕũ0G1Hfrac12G˯ƻAG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

HAʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJŚͳđɔbȣfrac120)G3į-GʟĴ3aR

Zn3ˠȕ4đɔbDFAņampͿ=ampʟĴ3ʰƾ4ǝˠaRZn14=DzucircIgrave

˯Ǵatilde-Gamp1ʵĥHGė˃ƟGʟĴ3ʰƾfrac120GʟĴ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFAʢ 6MWh8oMWhͿfrac120G

(f) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4Ƿ]bn˺]bnG4szliggt3ʰƾ1Ġ=HGƦŚHGamp

ʟĴ3ccedilǿ-4ecircmĀ0reg3]bn14ʡʭɥʿ1DGfrac12ĶPob (LVRT) ˞acuteG4ɑucircouml]bnʗGN`^wbǛ4ż4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɷDž˹

HG40

(g) uumljfrac14divideWocirceumlCcediloslash Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ]bn4đɔbDFA0)GHE3Ǖʘ1

41ͿȰlaquoʌɞ2ͿȰlaquo˹ʌƯƖE3eumlőǓƱdžĠ=HGʟĴ3DzucircȰlaquoʌɞ389Ϳ4đɔb30ͿDFA$3amp LCOE0)GE1Ƿ1DG 100˺K˟L-GampʟĴ3 LCOE ˹ʌƯƖ3eumlőǓƱdž1D)ȿͳHG40ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFAʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ0)G

824 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj3˩ʙ1DFʟĴ3ĔTHORNŃǘouml RECͿ3OacuteKͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘȣGyacuteYj4=ĔTHORNǕʘAͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘKĠ

1˩ʙș1ĔTHORNŃǘ3gtKĠauml˩ʙGǰƔ1auml7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘKĠ˩

ʙG3ŀccedilsup3Ś1DFͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘ1ťGĔTHORN3ɸťɱEgraveOacuteKǥE1amp x 8-34ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘĔTHORN3ŃǘKȣHE 23D1ʟĴ3 LCOE

KȒƭGKʆampA3-G2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3 LCOEʢ 41MWh57oMWhͿ4ĔTHORNɅouml REC3łͿ-JHGʢ 24MWh33oMWhͿ4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHGPTCUgraveČ˩ɩ3divideͿotildeĜ-˘0EʟĴ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 24ĔTHORN-ȟF3 3ccedil3 14ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHG

73

x 8-3 Ecirczs_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup364

825 aringmH7B

ʟĴ3mĀccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash1 MWhndash1 oMWhͿ-G3EʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4aRZnɯ1ƛ˞HGyacute˞acuteKɄamp31ăccedil0Xj`

yKĔTHORND7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOzȉGľĜͿEƖG10G34

PTCżǨDzucirc-)amp 2005Έ2009ƀ3ƀͶoumlˬOtildeş3ʯɱ˫EAǥE-GH41ƀŨTHORNş4 PCT]bnɑucirc10)ampǨ1˒ȿŪG (AWEA2009)ĎȲ65

83 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+

ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ƀƞ1ƼņGH4Ͷȯż1ˍō-]bnȣɱfrac12ĔTHORN

Ʌăccedil1F=ampľĜ1D)4Dzɲ0ǕʘPdlOzKeumlɥ-GE-GʟĴ1Gɠķ=

-3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn4HA-śǟHampʟĴeacute0GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯ

EHGʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bn4ˊ1đɔbDFAfrac12H4SrYaeligouml

ņǷ]bnʰƾfrac121DGͶoumlɯ1GǕƃ3ǕʘPdlOzȜ

Ɖ1˴ŚHamp-Ĵatilde3Ņ3szlig-401AͿ3ɯaRZnEumlHG10)amp

E-GĔTHORNǕʘ3PdlOz3ɸiexclucircȁ1DFͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ3yacuteYj4lte10

)G

Ugrave 8-6 EcirczIumlsectpsup366

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

58 (81)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

60 (83)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

ndash1 (ndash1) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ĎȲ64 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ65 x 8-1đɔ ĎȲ66 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

74

rOtildemiddot

AWEA (2010) ldquoUS Wind Energy Industry Breaks All Records Installs Nearly 10000 MW in 2009 Manufacturing

Investment Jobs Still Lagrdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) news release January 26 2010 at httpwwwaweaorgnewsroomreleases01-26- 10_AWEA_Q4_and_Year-End_Report_Releasehtml

AWEA (2009) ldquoAmerican Wind Energy Association Annual Wind Industry Report Year Ending 2008rdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) at httpwwwaweaorgpublicationsreportsAWEA-Annual-Wind-Report-2009pdf

Bolinger M (2010) ldquoRevealing the Hidden Value that the Federal Investment Tax Credit and Treasury Cash Grant Provide to Community Wind Projectsrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL-2909E January 2010 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreportslbnl-2909epdf

Capewind (2010) ldquoCape Wind Signs Agreement to Buy Siemens 36-MW Offshore Wind Turbinesrdquo Cape Wind (Capewind) news release March 31 2010 at httpwwwcapewindorgnews1086htm

Chadbourne and Parke (2009) ldquoTrends in Tax Equity for Renewable Energyrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke January 2009 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication810dde60-3c78-4a9a-9c5d- a5fae8014b4fPresentationPublicationAttachment51fc06c5-1407-48ac-9dff- a605de0f58e1pfn0109pdf

Chadbourne and Parke (2007) ldquoThe Tax Equity Marketrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke April 2007 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication572b04b4- 905e-48e1-8f6b-0f520c4f2615PresentationPublicationAttachment573bdc6c-ff85-4f99-b4d0- 25a845907bccpfn0407pdf

Cory K Schwabe P (2009) ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financing Input Variablesrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL TP-6A2-46671 October 2009 at httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

DOE (2010) ldquoGeneral Loan Guarantee Program Frequently Asked Questionsrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) accessed April 2010 at httpwwwlgprogramenergygovfaq2htm

DOE (2008) ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution to US Electricity Supplyrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2008 at httpwww20percentwindorg

EIA (2009) ldquoAnnual Energy Outlook 2010 Early Release with Projections to 2030rdquo US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration (EIA) website accessed February 2010 at httpwwweiadoegovoiafaeoexcelaeotab_16xls

102Federal Reserve (2010) ldquoHistorical Rates for Euro Areardquo Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System website accessed February 2010 at httpwwwfederalreservegovreleasesh10histdat00_euhtm

GE (2010) ldquo15 MW Wind Turbine Technical Specificationsrdquo GE Energy (GE) website accessed April 2010 at httpwwwgepowercomprod_servproductswind_turbinesen15mwspecshtm

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review amp Comparative Analysisrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports63434pdf

Justice S (2009) ldquoPrivate Financing of Renewable Energy ndash A Guide for Policymakers UNEP Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative Bloomberg New Energy Finance Chatham House December 2009 at httpwwwchathamhouseorgukfiles15542_1209_financeguidepdf

Schwabe P Cory K Newcomb J (2009) ldquoRenewable Energy Project Financing Impacts of the Financial Crisis and Federal Legislationrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory technical report NRELTP-6A2-44930 July 2009 at

75

httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti44930pdf

USOWC (2009) ldquoUS Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo US Offshore Wind Collaborative (USOWC) October 2009 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreports63434pdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2009) ldquo2008 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2009 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports2008-wind-technologiespdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2008) ldquoAnnual Report on US Wind Power Installation Cost and Performance Trends 2007rdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy May 2008 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs43025pdf

76

Uograve AĂsup1agraveUumlaacute

shyocircMQ+Q

BL0+para

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

aRZn3gPn Project title

aRZnĞregĴ3QOo

yMȣGamp AringΆoPk3đɔQOoyM13

aRZn3ʍ͵ Project type

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ʍ͵ A4ȳ

Ͷļǘ Number of wind turbines

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

Ͷʱǘ$EěĴ3ɡ˼

3ſĹɱQOoyMͿ

ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

Śȉaeligouml Rated power

Ͷ 1ļ3Śȉaeligouml ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

gɷƑ Rotor diameter

Ͷ3gɷƑ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

ĖͶʏ Swept area

gͶKĖGszligʏ m2-˘˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

tz Hub height

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ƚĸɏ3ſĹ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽraquotz

3ſĹͶƀɯouml4ɷDž

EcircGͿ tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ

Lond term average wind speed at hub height

tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

Ȝģɯouml Net electricity production

QOoyM3ƀſĹȜ

ģɯouml szligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

ƺʌouml Tax capability

iacute΄ɑiacute ćɜ3aRZn3ľĜ

4ʌiacuteUacuteʘKszligeumlɥ-GͿG4

ˣmiddotʇKƾ3ľĜ4ˣmiddotʇ

Ǝ˲ƀƄ3ʌdžKszligDzucirc1eumlɥ-

GͿ4_Ƹ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4

Ĵʌ΄ʌ3gt1ɥHGŵʌBĸ

Ǟʌ4ńͿ Currency

szlig]bnĔTHORNPdlOz

ʗ3 2007ǫƀ 2008ǫƀ3$HHdeg˘ɱ0ǡ $HH 2007ƀ 12DZ 3ǡ 2008ƀ12DZ 31ǡͿ3ȣ1ļ+1ˬŚ

ijŚƀ]bnćfrac14 Fixed annual costs unit

ijŚʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kW

Ńuumlƀ]bnćfrac14 Variable annual costs unit

ƀʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kWh

ccedil-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ͷ Wind turbine

ͶD7ɯ˙ʹ3Yacute˖Ʒ

]bn ggtzgĖ

oPznPKƿʆGPy

YN~jZb`blxj

i`blzX`blpdt

77

Qa[ɯȗgzoͶ

ɥŃĶĬraraquoļʅG4ʡʭDž

ʯ4Ġ=reg-ƲͿ Ͷ3 Wind turbine transportation

ͶK˛ŶľEaRZ

nɯ^Pn1$1ˬ

ʹ-GD1Gamp3]b

n

Ͷ3aRZn^Pn93Křpound

Gamp1ɥEHG΄n

jZ]bnD7Z3]bnK

Ġ Ͷ3ˬʹ Wind turbine installation

aRZnƈˬǴ3Ͷ

3ˬʹ]bn ƈˬ3Z3]bnKĠ

ũ˩ΆͶ3]bn Sub-total wind turbine cost

Ͷ 3ļsup23]bn3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ļʅ Foundations

QOoyM1ƛ˞0ļʅ

3ʱ]bn ]Zn$3regQOoyM

3ěͶKǓG31ƛ˞0ȒǓȅK

Ġ Ȓatildeʡʭ Internal grid

QOoyM3ŃƯ93

Džʯ1ƛ˞0QOoyM

atilde3ȥʡʭ

QOoyMatilde3szlig3ʳQO

oyM3ŃƯ=-D7ŃƯ

3ʳKĠͿŃƯ1ʡɏDF

ntilde1ʡʭʡŃĶĬGľĜ4$3Ń

ĶĬ=-3szlig3ʳKĠ1șiacuteƗɯ`blKuziacuteƗGamp1ˬʹ

HampiacuteƗ˙ʹͿ3]bnKĠƯDzʿ

D7Ͷ˛brvbarȐʿ1ǖB˿ġKcedilamp

FͶKǒAcirc1DFuumlD7Ocirc

țampFɥʭ˩OacuteKƵǍGamp3

ɴˡiacuteƗ`bl (SCADA)G4QOoyMɴˡ`bl3ˬʹKĠ

ʡʭʡ[jo]o3

Ɇƻ Grid connection grid code compliance

QOoyM3ʡʭʡ1

ƛ˞0ŃĶĬǠœ3oumlʡʭ

-ƛ˞HGȥʡʭ

QOoyMEʡʭ=-3ʳ

0[jo]oɆƻ3amp1ȨE

HGegrave3divideɱ˙ʹĠ=HGQO

oyMʡʭʡŃĶĬKĠ˜ǘ3

ŃƯKDzGľĜʡʭʡŃĶĬ

ʡʭ3ʳ3gtKĠ ʡʭŀƍ Grid reinforcement

˄Ƌ0ʡʭ-4QOoyM

3ʡ3ampʡʭ3reg3ccedil

3ĶʤKG1DF

ʡʭKŀƍGė˃ƟG

Ǡœ3ʡʭ3ŀƍ1ƛ˞0˙ʹ

ŀƍdivideɱiacuteƗ$3reg3macrdivideɱ˙ʹKĠ

Ϳ

ŃƯ Substations and transformer station

ʡʭʡŃĶĬˇiquestD7$H

=-3ĂKĠampQOoy

M3ʡʭatilde1Gszlig3

ŃƯ3]bn

ʡʭ93ʡĸɏ=-ǜĬD7ǜ

ĬKĠŃĶĬ4ĶKǤĶGȥ

ȗĬ-GL3Ͷ4aeligoumlKʡ

ʭĶ1ǤĶGŃĶĬKDzG ũ˩Άȥʡʭ Sub-total electrical netgrid

ȥʡʭ1G˫ 4 ɶ3ũ˩

˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ˴˯ Certification

ʡʭʡG1amp)QO

oyMK˴˯Gamp3]

bn

˴˯Hampˬ˩IJ3]bnD7QOo

yM3ś3ƈˬK3ˬ˩IJȣ

G]bnKĠ ɢĿ˺Ȇ Environmental survey

QOoyM3ɯȠ-

ƛ˞10GɢĿ˺Ȇ3ʱͳH

4ěĴ3ɢĿƐ˰EgraveǮ3acirciquest

ɱ0˞acute1˟G-G

ȩȃ3ė˃ƟɊɇograveʗͿ ͷ|3LJŚ Ǫˤ93ˡˢɱƐ ɣɣəD7ɣƩʡ93ƈˬD7 3Ɛ ɚŚ3ͻ˓˔3ɴˡ `oQyjV3Oslash

Pysup2ń3ɯ]bn

3ũ˩ Non-infrastructure development subtotal

˫3Pysup2ń3aR

Znɯ3˫ 2ɶ3ʱ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

78

ʰƾˬOtilde OampM facilities

ʰƾȐyacute3˖1ƛ˞0

D7ǟˬKǝamp1ƈˬG

]bn

Ͷ3ƈˬ14aRZn3ˀ

ɥƀǘ3ʰƾgzo3

ɏȏ]bnD7ņĺĦ3ordfnj]bn $3reg Miscellaneous

˫3aRZnɯ]bn

1Ġ=H0$3regegrave3

]bn

3ĵĸƯDzʿ93˚Ugrave

ntilde3eumlőǓƱ Interest payment before operation

aRZnŐntilde1ǓƱ

ƛ˞10Geumlő3ʱͳ ż4ƈˬȠ3OumlD7Ͷ3Ͱ

ǓƱ3amp33Ńǘ4 1Έ2ƀatilde3yacuteŃǘ-G3Xj`y

mŐHGɥeacuteƀƄ1

4ntilde-ǓƱ]bnG reg3aRZnɯ]b

n3ũ˩ Sub-total other project development costs

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫frac14ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0

ľĜʱͳ-˘

aRZnƷ]bn3

ʱͳ Total project investment costs

˫ɯɶũ˩3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

q-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǑĐbZjEgraveͳK

Ϳ Decommisioning excl scrap value

ļʅKĠQOoyMK

ĵĸEǑĐG31˞G]

bn

QOoyMD7egrave3Py

ZʗͿ3˥iquestǑĐə

$3regegrave3ƛ˞0Ǖƃ˯ǥǮ3Acircƭ]b

n ĵĸ3ˇɓɛƩ93ĮƘ Returning the land to the natural state

ĵĸ3ɠɛĮƘ3amp3]bn aRZnřpoundamp1ɯɣ

bZjEgraveͳ Scrap value

ǑĐǨ3bZjǺǛ3łČ

EgraveOacute ʳʗaumleumlɥG4bZj

łČ-Gė˃Ɵ3GQOoyM

3ǺǛ ȜģǑĐ]bn Net decommissioning costs

˫ɶ3ʱͳ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

BL0+igraveeacute Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǨszligːǨmO

nKͿ Operational time full load hours excluding derate

szligːǨ4QOoyM

3ſĹƀɯoumlK$3

Śȉaeligouml-ampOacute-G

H4szligːǨ3Ĝ˩-F˩ɩɱ

D7˩ɩń3ʰƾʚɡ3amp3OcircțǨK

ĠszligːǨŅŚamp^P

n1GQOoyM3ɯouml

AŀdivideG szligːǨ3mOn Derate of full load hours

QOoyMʎOslash

0Ǩ ɼȧʗ1DGOcircț3amp3ɯouml

3ǏŊKĠ ȜģǨȜģszligːǨ

Net operational timefull load hours

ǨszligːǨEmO

nKƊampǨ ȜģǨ3Ĝ˩KĠG0J(m

OnKĠGͿ

ˀɥƀǘ Economic life

ƦŚHGaRZn3ˀɥ

ƀǘ3ǴaRZn]

bn3ʱͳKĮĔ0H50

E0Ϳ

AringaRZnKʮʯɥG-

ƦŚHampˀɥƀǘsup21ăccedilʎOslash-

GɛƩ1)ampAaRZn

3ȟœˀɥƀǘ4egraveĠ0 ]bn˩ʙ3amp3˩ɩť

Ǵ Time horizon for cost

LCOE˩ʙ3ť0GǴ _OacuteKTHORNouml0ľĜ4myTn

ˬŚ1DFˀɥƀǘ1ˬŚG

79

calculations

aringm Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ǵ Loan duration

ȽǴ3Ĝ˩ ͰD7eumlőǓƱKĠ

― źľeuml Loan - market interest rate

euml3Oacute43ư1D)

ŃJG OgraveTHORN3otildeĜ-˘]bn

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml3ƖEHG Oumleumlɲɞ Return on debt

Ǵ1ȢƀƖEHG

euml ȢƀƖEHGeuml

ƛ˞HGǷeumlɲɞź

ľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivideʙ

KͿ Required return on equity excl market volatility risk adder

QOoyM3ǷƷŞ

ȨGeumlɲɞ Ƿ1Geumlɲ3otildeĜ

źľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivide

ʙ Market volatility risk adder

ʕyenɱźľ1đdivideǷeumlɲɞ

KGdividebZKƵǍG

KɶɱampA3

źľ1GcurrenƦń3ŃuumlbZKʾƬ

Gamp1divideʙGotildeĜ

ƛ˞HGƷǷ3Ȝ

ģeumlɲɞ Net required return on investment equity

ɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZ

nƷŞ93ǷeumlɲɞǷƷ

ŞȨGźľŃuumlƟ3b

ZKĠͿ

Ƿeumlɲɞźľ3ŃuumlƟKʾƬG

ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKƵǍGamp mZ-ɥė ˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ƿ3otildeĜĸUcircǷ3ƯDz

ȖKͿ Equity share excl local equity ownership

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp1ƻaeligGǷ3otilde

Ĝ

ͶǓƾ˙ʹPyʚɡ˺

ʗ3]bnKamp1ƷGǷ3

ʱͳ

Ƿ3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Total equity share

ĸUcirc3Ƿ3ƯDzȖ0E71ʱ

Ʒ]bn ˺]bnK

amp1ƻaeligGǷ3otildeĜ3

Ĝ˩

ĸUcircD7ĸUcircsup2ń3ƷŞNjAEligamp

Ƿ3ʱͳ

Ouml3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Debt share

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp3Ouml3otildeĜ THORNoumlGǷ3otildeĜ1ļ+˩ʙOacute

aRZn3ʱ]bn 100EǷ3otildeĜKƊampOacuteͿ

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate- municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠǘOacute

4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ȝģʌɞ Net tax rate

ǕƃĸǞŵǕƃ3Ȱlaquoʌ

ɞ3Ĝ˩ -˘ʆǕƃźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

80

shy MQ+Q

oacute-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

˛ȐʿNjAEligGʰƾʚ

ɡ]bn Manufacturer-provided maintenance

eacuteƀƄG4$3Ɣ1divide]

bn0-˛ȐʿNjAEligG

ʰƾʚɡ]bn

3]bn4żQOoyM3ˬʹ

]bn1Ġ=HGampeacuteǴ4e1

0G4-G

atildebgjy1DG˩ɩɱ

ʰƾʚɡ]bn Scheduled maintenance by internal staff

aRZnƯDzʿ3bgjy

1DGŚǴɱ0QOoyM

3ʰƾʚɡ]bn

bgjy1DGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

ń^wbŋʢ External service contracts

reg3˻Ȑʿ1DGŚǴɱ0Q

OoyM3ʰƾʚɡ]b

n

˻brvbarȐʿDGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

]bn Operation costs

QOoyM3ɥ1ƛ˞

0ƀ]bn SCADA KĠQOoyM3ƴ˗ɱɥ3amp3]bn-ʚɡ]bn-40

H14ecirc˷ǥͿǘOacuteȥcurren

ɂ3]bnKĠ ɏȏ Inspections

Ͷɏȏ3amp˻ȐʿK

ˇʇ-A˫3^wb˻

Ȑʿ-A0ľĜͿ

gzo3Ľġ2~4ƀȢͿĦ3ƴ˗ɏȏͶ 1 ļampF 2 ƀȢ1 1 ǡͿKĠɏȏ3ǨȂ4kW |b

-ˬŚ ˩ɩń3Icircɡ Unscheduled repairs

˩ɩń3Icircɡʰƾʚɡ ˙ʹ3ǖŇȥɛȯ$3reg3ńį1DG

ʰƾijŚͿũ˩ OampM costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ OampM costs variable subtotal

˫3Ńuumlʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝͳ-˘ ʚɡ Administration

QOoyM3ʚɡ

D7ɴɽ3]bn ʬƈəˇuumlD7ɗǛͿʗKĠ

Igrave Insurance

QOoyM$33

bZD7$3Ɛ1OtildeG

amp1ǓƱƀIgraveǛ

uumlɤIgraveǏŝUgraveuacuteɍ˚UgraveD7ɢĿ

)ampQOoyM1ɷDžEcirc

Gegrave3Igrave

ʡʭǛ Grid charges

ʡʭ93ʡ0E71ɥKǓ

ǎG31ƛ˞HGƀǛ

_4HKş|b3]bn

G4SrY]bnTHORNouml

G-G ʡʭ3]bnijŚͿ Grid costs fixed

˫3ʡʭǛ

ʡʭ3]bnŃuumlŃuumlͿ Grid costs variable

˫3ʬ˺ʛ]bn

^Pn3 Site lease

QOoyMKˬʹampĵ

ĸ3ƯDzʿ1ǓƱʱͳ Ͷ 1 ļ1macrǓƱľĜAʱͳ-ǓƱľĜAʱ]bn-THORNouml

G ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

aRZnşƀ

kWͿ1ļ+aRZnǓƱƀʌͳ

ͼ|b3ʌ4˫3Z`n-ƀ

șŃuuml30ŃǘTHORNoumlG

1ȲƧ-4ş|b3ʌKʆ

$3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG ȸouml Electricity consumption

ouml3ˇŹȸ ʡʭ3ĝǴD7ɯƯ3uumlʗ3amp

_4HEKş|bG4

SrY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ɢĿɂŚ˰Egraveʗ Environmental measurements evaluations etc

QOoyM3˴ė0E7

1KʰƾG31ƛ˞0ƀ

ɢĿɂŚ˰Egrave

_4HEKş|bG4Sr

Y]bnTHORNoumlG-

G

81

reg3ƀ]bnijŚͿũ

˩ Other annual costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚɢĿɂŚǛ

ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ Other annual costs variable subtotal

˫3oumlȸ]bn

ƀ]bnijŚͿ Annual costs fixed

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ƀ]bnŃuumlͿ Annual costs variable

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘

Ts_-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ƀźľđdivide]bn Annal market participation fee

ʕyenɱoumlźľ1đdivideGamp

3ƀ]bn źľɥʿʡʭɥʿ1ǓƱ

ʬ˺Ǚ]bn Balancing costs

ͶoumlɯKěǨ1oumlʡ

ʭ1DžʯGamp3]bnʱͳ

aeligoumlcurrenɂ1Gś3ŀccedil]

bn

kW]bn4ȜƉ0ʬ˺ǙźľKG43]bnouml3źľ

Egraveȉ1Ġ=HGampccedilG3İ

0ľĜAG_4HE3]bn

Kş|b3]bnG4S

rY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ŋʢ]bnĕƊǛʗͿ Contract costs (transaction fees etc)

ŋʢ3ʰƾ1ƛ˞0ƀǓƱͳ kWh-˘ĕƊǛ

reg3]bn3ʱͳ Subtotal other costs

źľđdivide]bnʬ˺Ǚ]b

nŋʢ]bn3Ĝ˩

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKşǦ1GĽ

Ō kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƟʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źľoumlEgraveȉ Market price electricity

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

ƀſĹźľoumlEgraveȉ kWh

źľ˯ǮEgraveȉ Market price certificates

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ3

ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kWhǕʘ1DFG4źľ|b-ˬŚHGľĜGǘOacute4ecirc

THORNoumlG FITĔTHORN Feed-in tariff revenue

FIT1DGĔTHORN ż4aR

Zn]bn3ǓƱ3amp3ŀ

ccedilǓƱŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞK

ʄIgraveG31Auml ouml3źľEgrave

ȉKĠľĜAG

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐKŐampƀƄ1

ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlHG

reg3ĔTHORN3ʱͳ Subtotal other revenues

˫3reg3ĔTHORN3Ĝ˩

Ccedil ― shyocircocirc

shyocirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ʌƊntildedž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as a before-tax credit

ʌƊntilde

3ʌdž1ťGntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊntilde

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGʌ|b3ntildeƱ˚

ugrave3otildeĜHĝ otildeĜaRZ

n3ʱͳoͿG4ˬOtildeşampF

3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ

82

|b3PdlOz4aRZn1

DGʌƊntilde1ɥHGƕ)aR

Zn1ťEgraveOacuteaRZn3eacute

ƀ3˹ʌͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3

ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜaRZnG

G4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3

ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ

4_Ƹ-Gʌdž4Ĵ

ʌ13gtɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ

|-40Ϳ ʌƊƔdž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave AringΆUgraveČͿ Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as an after-tax deduction (eg depreciation)

ʌƊƔ

3ʌdž1ļ+ntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊƔ

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGYacute˖ʌdžH

ĝ otildeĜaRZn3ʱͳoͿ

G4ˬOtildeşampF3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ|b3Pdl

Oz4aRZn1DGʌƊƔ1ɥ

HG3ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜa

RZnGG4aRZn

ƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-G

ˣmiddotʇKƾ4_Ƹ-G

ʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥHGƕ

)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront cash investment subsidy

aRZnszligiquest1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ aRZnƷ]bnʱͳ1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml-3Ƚė˃ ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKǁGamp mZ-ɥė˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

shyl Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

kW-ʆHGƀʌͳ ȢƀǓƱD7ƀșŃuumlGş

|b3ʌͳ FITĔTHORNAringΆɯouml|b3PdlOzͿ Feed-in tariff revenue (eg production based incentives)

FIT G4ɯouml|b3PdlOz1DGĔTHORN

ż4aRZn3]bnK

31˞ȨHGŀccedilǓƱ1

ŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞKdivideampOacute

ouml3źľEgraveȉKdivideGľĜA

G

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐɱɥKŐampƀƄ

1ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǨCcedilœǛiacuteƄKɥ

GĴoPkʗͿ4ƀ3ǘOacuteAring

$HƀK Ś0

AͿKTHORNoumlG FITǕʘǴ Feed-in tariff policy period

FIT G4ɯ˚ugraveǓƱJHGʱǨ

aRZn1ƦŚHGʪȽɱƕŎǴ

K0ʜı3Ǵɮ0H5 FIT3ǓƱ|Aɮ0)Gė˃Ɵ

83

GFIT ǕʘǴ3Ĝ˩OacuteK1THORNoumlG

ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž Production-based before-tax credits

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b30J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊntilde

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊntilde|

b-aRZn1ɥH

G

aRZn3ʌǓƱntilde1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGɯouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿƕ)aRZn1ťEgraveOacuteņaRZneacuteƀ3˹ʌ

ͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteK

ĖGćɜaRZnGG

4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDz

ucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gt

ɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40

Ϳ ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž3ǕʘǴ Production-based before-tax credit policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHGǴ

3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɯ|b3ʌƊƔdž Production-based after- tax deductions

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b0J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊƔ

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊƔ|

b-aRZn1ɥHG

aRZn3ʌǓƱƔ1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKĖGćɜaRZnGG4

aRZnƯDzʿĝƀƄ3ʌdžKDzucirc

1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥ

HGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ɣɤļɵ3džʌƊƔͿ

ǕʘǴ Production-based after- tax deductions policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHG

Ǵ3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power bonus

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKEumlGamp

3ĽŌ kWh

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƄʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWh

źľEgraveȉ˯Ǯ Market price certificates

źľG4Ǖƃ3Ǖʘ1D)

ˬŚHampQOoyM

3aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ

3ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kW_4ɮ0Gźľ-0J(ěʍ3źľEgraveȉ-Ϳłamp3˯

Ǯ3ȼĜdivideſĹźľEgraveȉKTHORNoumlG

divideUgraveČ Accelerated Depreciation

OtildeĦ3ͳK˺middot˩D

7ʌťʘUgraveČG˩ɩ ěƀƄ3UgraveČͳ4ɤ3ˀɥƀǘ3eacuteǴD

FBBƀ|b-eacuteǴƷʱͳ

3ͼˬŚG UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

3m-4_aRZn3

EgraveOacuteKUgraveČGƀƄ$3UgraveČɞKŚʻ

GșƀƄsup2ȢƀȟͳKUgraveČGǞȰK

ɥGĴ-4_UgraveČ˩ɩEgrave

ͳKdegɡȖ˖Auml1D)˟ʏG

dj

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

yacuteYj Financial gap

aRZn3˺1ƛ˞

HGyacuteYj ʱ]bn˺]bnͿEƛ˞

HGǷeumlɲɞ93Ʒ1ƛ˞0ĔTHORN

PdlOzKƊampOacute ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave Levelized electricity generation cost

QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘ

1QOoyM-ɣɤH

amp kWh3ɠķ3ǡſĹ]bn

szlig3]bnKĠƷaumlƷ

ʰƾͿĔTHORNPdlOz˺]

bnĹʗĀĎEgrave4otildeƊɞͶ3ˀɥƀ

ǘKɥ˩ʙ

• 表紙13
• 要旨13
• 目次13
• 第1章 7ヶ国の風力発電の財務コスト13
• 第2章 デンマーク13
• 第3章 ドイツ13
• 第4章 オランダ13
• 第5章 スペイン13
• 第6章 スウェーデン13
• 第7章 スイス13
• 第8章 米国13
• 付録A 変数および用語解説13

viii

L5

ordm 1-1 ƽŊƻGKU ordm 1-2 ƔDdQ^ī6copy=mMmSlt]amp36ŊƻGKUŐĭ ordm 1-3 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14ŊƻƻƬǀƓżĐưǁ9sup2űĞ ordm 1-4 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14divideƖGKU9sup2űĞ ordm 1-5 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14Ƥƚųugraveƕ9sup2űĞ ordm 1-6 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14ƖƭƐƥGKU9sup2űĞ ordm 1-7 sectĺFpKampshyfrac14Ĥntildeƃū9sup2űĞ ordm 1-8 shyfrac14xƃGKU[hbpN LCOEacircƼ ordm 2-1 Tm`pEƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 2-2 TmsectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 2-3 Tm`pEƢŨGKUGKUƨcTj ordm 2-4 Tm`pEcopyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 3-1 V=RTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 3-2 V=RƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 3-3 V=RƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 4-1 AhmOTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 4-2 AhmOsectĺFpKĮƛordm ordm 4-3 AhmOƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 5-1 K_=mTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 5-2 ƅĈƭKCpathornř ordm 5-3 UacuteAacuteA^Igmamp136ĔŮǀUacuteAacuteĠǂAgraveEgraveƭǁ ordm 5-4 ƻyenUacuteAacuteamp136ƽŊƻETHƬǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 5-5 YacuteČƻ^pjĠAumlŀTHORNYacutefrac34ǀ2003Dž2009THORNǁ ordm 5-6 2008THORNampƊŵ7ƽƙH=LƋ ordm 5-7 K_=m133+sectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 5-8 K_=mcopy133+ƽŊƻąŢ=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 6-1 KgtpTmTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 6-2 KgtpTmƽŊƻGKU ordm 6-3 KgtpTmƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 7-1 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 7-2 K=KƽŊƻGKUsectĺFpKĮƛ ordm 7-3 K=KƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ordm 8-1 Ŧfrac14THORNưOgraveETHƬ ordm 8-2 Ŧfrac14133+sectĺFpKƽŊƻGKUǀ2008THORNǁ ordm 8-3 Ŧfrac14copyƽŊƻąŢ133+=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ

ix

5

ƀ ES-1 ƶrƽŊƻfrac14 LCOEǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-1 ƽŊƻ^lJEUƖĚdivideƖGKUƃū ƀ 1-2 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻoumlſŋ[hbpNǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-3 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻƔ[hbpNǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-4 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻ LCOE FGǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-5 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEUoumlſŋ[hbpN ƀ 1-6 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEUƔ[hbpN ƀ 1-7 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEU LCOE133+ FG ƀ 1-8 aacuteŀ LCOEĊIJĮƛ ƀ 2-1 Tm`pEƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (MW) ƀ 2-2 Tm`pEƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW) ƀ 2-3 ƓżĐưampiquest FIT9deg06Z]ƿlpNŏatildeŊƻħETHƬʼn6 4ƽƙŐNtildeŋ

ƀ 2-4 ƓżĐưampiquest FIT9deg0Z]ƿlpNŏatildeŊƻħETHƬʼn6 4ƽƙŐNtildeŋ ƀ 2-5 Tm`pEƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 2-6 Tm`pEƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 2-7 Tm`pEƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ƀ 2-8 2007THORN 2008THORNTm`pEamp136ƽŊƻ LCOE0 ƀ 3-1 V=RŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-2 V=RTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-3 V=RƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 3-4 V=RƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 3-5 V=RƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 3-6 V=RűĞ0 ƀ 4-1 AhmOŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-2 AhmOĪsup2THORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-3 AhmOƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 4-4 AhmOƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 4-5 AhmOƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 4-6 AhmOűĞ0 ƀ 5-1 K_=mŬŜƊŵƬ (GW) ƀ 5-2 K_=mTHORNưOgraveƬ (GW) ƀ 5-3 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 5-4 K_=mƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 5-5 K_=mƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 5-6 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEU0 ƀ 6-1 KgtpTmŬŜƊETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-2 KgtpTmTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-3 Lillgrunden^lJEU ƀ 6-4 KgtpTmƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 6-5 KgtpTmƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 6-6 KgtpTmƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

x

ƀ 6-7 KgtpTműĞ0

ƀ 7-1 K=KŬŜƊETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-2 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-3 ƖƭƐƥGKUƈţ

ƀ 7-4 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 7-5 K=KƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 7-6 K=KƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

ƀ 7-7 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEU0

ƀ 8-1 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-2 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-3 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 8-4 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 8-5 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]

ƀ 8-6 Ŧfrac14űĞ0

1

Aring 1Auml 7Ozuumljfrac14dividearingm-1

11

2009 ƀȚŵĜ (EU) 4Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşKǝamp1 10163 MW divideʟĴ-4 9994 MW Kdivideamp (EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)3 2009ƀ1GˬOtildeş3ŀdivide1DFͶoumlɯ4 EU-4ǰņ3ʟĴ-4ʖ 2frac143ǝamp0Ʌ0)G(EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)ɪɱ1AsectĀɎʥǃaeligethȿĀʂɗǛ3ŘszligIgraveBŘŚAEligʬ3ĪͲ)ampǘ3ɡɦ1DFͶoumlɯ3˞40)G szligɪ-ͶoumlɯɯKŮ-Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bnCcedilɓŝ10)Gė˃

ƟAGͶoumlɯ3ƷŞ4ͶoumlɯƯ3PygP]bn1aRZn3ɯ˩ɩ1ĕF

)ampǨɏEȣɱʄ0ʀ˾Kƾ)GH4ͶoumlɯɯaRZn3ˬOtilde]bnſĹͶKǣ

Ƞ-ʀG-GE-F=ampͶoumlɯ3Ńuumlˊ1Ū0ɗǛ]bnEsectĀɎ

ʥAǃaelig0E-G3D0ijDz3ɚƙG1AͶoumlɯ3]bn463Ĵ3

-AaRZn1=ampěĴņɮ0)FǷʃʐ-43ɏ1ɒɏKƎG

12 frac34frac12sup2

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)ampǘŅ3Ȓƭ˞ʥK˰EgraveHE3]bn3ȵHaRZnǴszligiquest-ŃĀGKDŽGƛ

˞G3aRZn-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnK˷ǥȣGamp3˞0ɂŚćfrac14ĹʗĀɯ

ĎEgrave (LCOE) Kȏ˪ampLCOE 4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3PygP]bn3Ĝ˩OacuteKɠķ1otildeƊƀɯouml1ļ+ĹʗĀampOacute-GLCOE4ɮ0Gˤɏ1ʑ)ampěʍ3ǞȰBưȰKɥ˩ʙG-GǷĽġ-4HE3ˡɏD7Ni3(ș`pU˩ɩȰƄyacuteX

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GDFacirciquestɱ1˧5ǷĽġǮ3 LCOE ccedilǿʫȁ4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴatildeƷŞěɥampmǞȰKɥěˇ3aRZn3K˺GbrvbarAring13Ĵecirc3yacute]bnK˘ampA3-GɫƧ

4Ƿʃʐ1Gyacute]bn3ȣ4Ͷoumlɯ3ʇmiddotɱɥ0J(3SrY3eumlɥ1

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3Ǔaelig1GccedilǿʫȁK˘1G3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʣ]bn3˰Egrave1divideěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ

aRZn3ƯDzʿeumlɥ-GĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3PdlOzK˷ǥ˽Ĵ-ɣ G]bn˞ʥ3

KǥE1G ǷĽġǮ-4= LCOE KȒƭG]bn˞ʥKʞć1˷ǥș1ǷaRZn3-ɯHampb

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Gȣ3PnKǥE1GěĴ3ĎEgrave˞ʥKđɔbȣͶoumlɯ3 LCOE 3ŸɮKɣ GĎįKǥE1Gș3dZ`-4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEdegǯɱǞȰKʞć1˷ǥͶouml

ɯ3ĹʗĀĎEgraveK˩ʙGș1đɔb-Śʻamp]bn˞ʥ1ļ+LCOELJŚOacute3K˷ǥɥGǞȰ31D) LCOE ŃJ)GKś˯GǰƔ3ʒ-ěđdivideĴ3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3]bn˞ʥK=˷ǥGsup2ǷĽġǮ3ȑ˞-G

2

13 uumljfrac14divideAElignp[

131 -1UacuteIgrave

Ͷoumlɯ3]bn˞ʥ4ǷƷ]bnʰƾD7˺]bn-GHEě

1ěʍ3]bn˞ʥĠ=HGǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampIuml3]bn˞ʥ4Uograve A1ʆF-G ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ņͳ3ǷƷKƛ˞$3Ȓƭ˞ʥ4Ͷ-0ŅʍŅȓ-G

Ugrave 1-1 1ʆD1Ʒʱͳ3ʢ 75Ͷ3]bn-FȟF4˘1=ampD1ʡʭʡļʅˬʹ0E71ƈˬ1G]bn-GHE3]bn4oPkmZbPˏĴ33m

g1ļ+GǑĐ]bn4aRZnŐǨ1ʄIgrave3]bnKƎeacute3ǷƷ1ĠG

KʻyacutemacrGĴAG

Ugrave 1-1 uumljfrac14divideBL0+ccedilyenccedil-1UacuteIgrave

ʱ]bn1ĈGotildeĜͿ reg3]bn1żĈGotildeĜͿ ͶŶľɀͿ

ʡʭʡ ļʅ

ȥˬOtilde ĵĸ

yacute]bn ƈˬ

]^gn

68-84 2-10 1-9 1-9 1-5 1-5 1-5 1-3

ndashndashndash 35-45 20-25 10-15 5-10 5-10 5-10 5-10

ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

ʰƾ4Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥ-ż4IgraveʚɡD7ŚǴɱIgraveŗɏȏ^wbŋʢ

)ampijŚĠ=HGŃuuml1Ġ=HG34ˊ1˩ɩɱG4˩ɩń3IgraveŗɏȏBĦordfnj3]bnʗ

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Gsup3Ś˟ʏFK˖ŅͶoumlɯaRZn-4ƀ3ɗǛ˞-Fƕ)

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71macrGOumlD7Ƿ3Ȓƭ˞ʥAĴ1D)˒ɮ0G=amp$H1ťǴƒ-Geumlɲ1

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Gyacute]bnʱͳ1ƐG x 1-14Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3˟ʏF1Ġampěʍ3]bn˞ʥƷ]bnƀʰƾyacuteŃǘʗͿ

KʆampA3-GͶoumlɯaRZn3ǰʨɱɣɤə4ouml-GampLCOEKƀɯouml-ĹʗĀGƛ˞Gɯouml4Ͷ3əɡɱɚƙD7ɚŚ3aRZn^Pn3ͶɅ3ɚƙ1ŷęHG

132 s_N3N9A

ouml4ͶoumlɯaRZnƯDzʿłGĩĦ-oumlźľ4Ĵ1D)ɮ0G3aRZn4Ͷ

oumlɯ1G]bn1ɒɏKƎěoumlźľ1GĔTHORNPdlOzK=ampA3-Gɯ

1DGĔTHORN1divideěʍ3PdlOzKAuml)Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKʄś1ĮĔ-GD1GH

E3PdlOz14ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ(FIT)ɣɤ1Ɯ ampʌͳdžaumlɣė˃SrY˯ǮG4reg3VqcG

3

x 1-1 uumljfrac14divide-1 ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

133 icirc

Ͷoumlɯ1Gɶ3Ņ=žĀHEHE4ĔTHORNB]bn3˰Egrave1Ġ0

HE4ɯƴ˗3oacuteșɱƐ1GńƟG4ʇmiddotɱɥ-Gˊ1aumlɣė˃SrY3ƴ˗4

ƕǽĺɅ3ƴ˗1ȣńƟ3Ɛż1Ū0IEA3 ldquoRenewable Energy Costs and Benefits for Society (RECaBS)rdquo aRZn-4ǥƟ3ǞȰKɥƕǽĺɅaumlɣė˃SrYɅKȣɯ3]bnEacuteɲKLJŚG (RECaBs 2007)ReCABS3ǞȰ˼1DH53ccedilǿ14ș3 53ńƟĠ=HG

ȥNtildeŃuumlɁŜucircȁWbɚ1 CO2D7 CH4Ϳ reg3ņȥȩȃɅSOxNOxD7ʠőͿ ʡʭʡoumlPy93divide]bn oumlʬ˺ǙͶ3şZajnˮȲ 41DGȿͳʗͿ

ɗǛAEligʬ3ŘszligIgraveɗǛTHORN3ĴatildeɅ-3degɥ HE3ńƟ1divideͶoumlɯ4ɗǛ3ȸB$H1sup1ɗǛEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ŷęH0Ͷoumlɯƴ˗

93ƷbZ4ĀʂɗǛ1DGɯƴ˗3bZyMPɮ0GHEszlig3ɚƙ1DFͶoumlɯ

ƴ˗reg3ɯƴ˗3EgraveOacuteNjȊ1G˞0ɚƙɣ GǷʃʐ4$3ȣ˰EgraveK˱gtampA3-

40

134 LCOEGKaacute

UhSrYʃʐdg (ECN) AcircƭampXj`ym4ǷaRZn1G

ˮȲ 4 şZajn (capacity credit) ʡʭŘŚƄ1ƤƐK0ʜı-Ͷoumlɯ1D)ƕǽĺɅHʹnj

EHGKʆȣɞAring5 şZajn 303ľĜǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ 1 GW1ťƕǽĺɅK 03GWȿEG-GşZajn1G˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

4

LCOEyacuteYj (FG) 3˟ʏF3ļɵ0)G3 ECNm4otildeƊXj`ym-Ǝeacute4Uh1Gaumlɣė˃SrY3˚ugrave3ɯAEligʬĽŌK˩ʙGamp1AcircƭHampA3

-Gɠķ ECN43mKɥUhǕƃ1ěʍaumlɣė˃SrYƸ˂3ɣɤ]bnK3ʋƄ1ugrave˧GIEAWind Task26KɯŮ-đdivide˽Ĵ3]bnȒK˟ʏAGamp3mKIcircȜƼņͶoumlɯ3]bnKȄ˳ʧ1˩ʙ-Gkamp3mKȒƭ

G34ɯƯ^PcǨszligːǨˀɥƀǘƷ]bnʰƾaRZn3˺

3ɚƙ)ampmĀ3amp3vg0E71Ɓʜ0vg-GěĴD7==0ˠ

iacuteiquestiacute13mKɥ-$3ȗ˃ŅɥƟǔīHGAring5Xj`y

mKǔ˨ͶoumlɯaRZn3ěˠiacuteiquestiacute1ƕ==0ƴ˗ɱyacuteɱvg1ɥ-

GD1amp3D0Ȅ0m4Ʒ]bnʱͳ3˩ʙ3gt0Eěʍ3ɥ3ɚƙByacuteưȠ

0E71ĴQOoyM3PdlOzK˷ǥG-˞-G

135 GK|yenfrac12-N3B

Xj`ybjo`nKɥͶoumlɯ3]bnK˳ʧ1˩ʙG$3szligvgKUograve A1ʆ3bjo`nm4 6 3Z`n-ȒƭHǰeacute3 3 3Z`n4ɚŚ3Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3˩ʙ1ƛ˞0˳ʧƥĽKNjAEligGamp3A3-G ǰeacute3Z`n4ƀșŃuuml3013ŃǘKŚGA3-GH14aRZn3ɚƙƷ]b

nʱͳǑĐ]bnʱͳĎȲ2szligːǨ1ɔEampǨ]bn˩ʙ3˩ɩťǴĠ=HGƷ]b

nǑĐ]bn4ěʍ3Ȓƭ˞ʥ3ʱͳ˘-GH4ś3]bn3Ÿɮ3ŅĴȣ3

amp3ƥĽKNjAEligHG=amp3Z`n1DFPyŃuuml]bnŀK˷ǥGampͿOumleuml

ɲɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞ0E71OumlǷȣɞaRZn1macrGyacutebZKēǧGampͿ)

ampěʍ3yacuteŃǘKŚG-GE13Xj`ym4ĴBŵ3ȰlaquoʌKʾƬampA

3-G ƀșŃuuml13Z`n14ʰƾĸdegʡʭ]bn)ampƀijŚŃuuml-ȒƭHG

ěʍɶĠ=HFHEK˳ccedil͵ěĴ-ȣ-GD1G=amp-ȥǛBʧ

ȪŚ˞įŋʢ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnʗͿKŚʻG ʖ 33Z`nǕʘ13-4ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT)ʌͳdž$3reg3PdlOzKȏ˪G

3m3U`ȿʌ3EacuteɲKaRZn3Xj`y1ŚampFɑiacuteĎȲ31

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13D7LCOEXj`y13Z`n-˖

136 LCOE FGYacuteEgrave

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3Ȃʩgtatilde1G LCOE 3˩ʙOacute4ƷǓaelig3ƾccedilotildeĜszligǴ3otildeƊʌƊƔXj`yʱͳKeȜģɠķEgraveOacute (NPV) G31ƛ˞0ɣɤCcedilœeumlɲŚʻHGLCOE3˩ʙ-4ɯG4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɚecirc1ɥHGPdlOzE3ĔTHORN3Xj`yKʾƬ0

ECN3 LCOE˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

ĎȲ2 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4ǑĐ]bnKaRZnƈʝǴ1ʄIgraveKĴʻyacutemacrGľĜ3gt3]b

nKĠamp ĎȲ3 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4szlig3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKɑiacute13sup3Śamp=Feumlɥė˃0szlig3ȿʌ3ơƣKřszlig1ĖEH

GD0Xj`yăccedil1œķG-G

5

H41ɠķ FG3˩ʙ-4Ͷoumlɯ1ijDz3ɯɱPdlOz3Xj`yfynYacute˖Ʒʌļɵ3ƷugraveƭʗͿKʾƬG3Śʻ1ļ+brvbarś FG1D)ěĴ3 LCOEɯ0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ɱPdlOz1DFśɠHampeumlɲ3K˘G

ECNm3 FG˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

˫3D1ʌƊƔ3ƀXj`y14ouml3łĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3˚ugraveƱƮD7P

dlOzƀʰƾȽeumlƢǓƱ0E71yacuteľ3ȿEgraveUgraveČeumlődž3ʌƊƔͳ

E3Xj`yĠ=HG x 1-24LCOEƖEHampĔTHORNoumlźľĔTHORNFITAEligʬĽŌʗͿPdlOzD7yacuteYj

3EcircKʆampA3-G3IJ1ʆD1FGOacuteȜ3ľĜ4aRZnɯʿ3 LCOEK31ƛ˞0ĔTHORNƖEH0)ampƧģ-F3ľĜ4 LCOE KG3ăccedil0ĔTHORNƖEHampKʆĨG

x 1minus2 aringmH7Bmacrs_N3N9AampgtKQ-1Agravedeg

ʌƊƔ3Xj`yt

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ ndash

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

FG =

1 ndash ʌɞ times ƀʰƾ t ndash ʌɞ times euml t + ʌyacute3ȿEgraveUgraveČ t

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ +

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

LCOE =

6

14 rkzoumlRuumljfrac14divide-1

șʛ-4 Ĵ3aRZn3ǎugraveKGĴatildeƷŞ1)3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKđdivideamp 7Ĵ3Ĵecirc1ʆH14 ECN3mǞȰ˼KɥG˞0Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3ŃǘKŅĴ-ȣG1DFěĴ3ccedilFͶoumlɯaRZn3|bP]bnǥʄ10Geumlɥ

ė˃0mgEHGampȳͶoumlɯ3]bn4˳ʆ0ĽġHamp]bnmg3

Ūǘ3^KĠG

15 vQ5otildeordm

3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnƟ˃0E71yacutemgszligiquest3ȜʄDzucircƟKaeligǽGF˯ǥD

ampmgfb4ŅʍŅȓ-FĽġHampmg34ĴD7mgfb1DFɮ0)G

Aring5ĽġHamp]bn3mg42008 ƀ3ͳ-˘ampɠķEgraveȉK˘G3ŚEgraveȉǥʄ-0brvbarAringAG=ampsup21ǀGvgA2008 ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlaRZnK˘amp3A3-Gś14 2008ƀntilde1ɯȲHǓƱJHampbrvbarAringKĠGė˃ƟGmgEHGampampɉķɱ0ɿɹKIcircȜG-0)ampE1 IEA Task264ěĴ3deg˘ɱ013aRZnK˘KƧIJampA3-GͶoumlɯ3ś3]bn4^PnaRZn1D)ɮ0G

ƕ)sup23mg4ěĴ3szligˊɱɛȯ˷ǥ3amp3gt1ʆampA3-3ɏ1ɫƧ-G

16 tzGKLCOErmicroQ1

Ͷoumlɯ3Ĵecirc3]bnļǷampaRZn-4đɔb13Ĥ8ͿȣHG

3đɔb4ěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3deg˘ɱ0Ȓƭ˞ʥK˘A3-ƴ˗ɱvgaRZn3ɚƙƟ

˃Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bnʰƾʗͿyacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞ

ǴĴ3ʌɞʗͿ3ǞĠ=HGđɔb-4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘKńG=ampͶoumlɯ

KǓǎGĕFʩgt4Ĵ1D)ɮ0GampͶoumlɯǕʘBPdlOzAĠ0ƕ)đɔ

b-4 LCOE3˩ʙʫȁ3gtK˘ʆG Ĵecirc3ƴ˗ɱvgKUgrave 1-21ʆĎȲ4đɔb-43ěvgKszlig3Ĵ1Ga

RZn3ˬOtildeş3divideſĹ˩ʙGđɔb3ƴ˗ɱvg3OacuteA3˘1ʆF

2008 ƀ3ˬOtildeşȣɱņ)ampbQRmʟĴ$HH 98MW85MWͿ-ƄĜņ0)G7 Ĵ- 2008 ƀ1śǟHampdeg˘ɱ0aRZnKŅŪ0FAēǧ-GD1đɔb3divide14Ĵatilde3ʱSrYş-40aRZn3ˬOtildeşKɥGđɔb3aRZ

nȒʝ14==0Ƹ˂G$3ƸĴecirc3 LCOE G4 FG ˩ʙ1ƐG40ɏKƿǐG34˞-GđɔbNjAEligG342008 ƀ3Ĵecirc3ʫȁKȣGamp3ˊɱ0ɏ10 Ugrave 1-3 4Ĵecirc3yacutevgKʆampA3-Gě3yacutevg1szlig3Ĵ3ʼnOacuteKđɔ

b3OacuteɥGYacute1ampD1đɔb3˩ʙOacuteĴecirc3 LCOE B FG 3ʫȁ1ƐG40

ECN m-4otildeƊɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞKɥGǷdivideſĹ]bn (WACC) A3˘1ʆGWACC 4˜ǘ3yacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞĴ3ʌɞͿKyacute]bnszligiquestK˷ǥGćɂŚļɆ1ĠG Ugrave 1-41ĴecircD7đɔb3 LCOE FG3ʫȁKʆ3ʫȁ142008ƀ3 LCOEyacuteYj

3˩ʙʫȁKĠG3ʫȁ4Ĵecirc3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnszligiquestK˘ampʆampA3-G3Ͷ

oumlɯaRZn-Aś3 LCOE4ľƯaRZn1D)ɮ0)G

ĎȲ4 Ugrave 1-33mĀ3sup3Ś3amp3THORNoumlmg43gt-ʆG1ɫƧraquo LCOE FG3ʫȁ4

ʟo3Ǟ-ʆG

7

Ugrave 1-2 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divideOslashfrac12JFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h b

P bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b Ͷ^Pc(MW) ĎȲ5 23 20 30 20 24 20 17 21

Ͷļǘ 7 5 5 15 41 6 50 34 szligːǨ 2695 2260 2200 2150 2600 1750 3066 2628 ƷĎȲ6(eurokW) 1250 1373 1325 1250 1591 1790 1377 1449 ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 00 15 00 00 16 00 00 06 reg3]bn

euroMWhͿ 3 0 10 3 0 0 0 1

ʰƾijŚͿ(euroMWh) 000 4633 3139 000 001 000 860 629

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 12 0 13 20 11 31 5 11

njʰƾʱͳ

(euroMWh) 12 21 28 20 11 31 7 13

đɔb divide 61 38 57 114 366 46 318 NA

Ugrave 1-3 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14dividearingmJFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h bP

bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 55 50 70 50 50 60 50 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 110 95 150 100 120 70 75 100 Oumlyacute3otildeĜͿ 80 70 80 80 87 70 0 80 Ƿ3otildeĜͿ 20 30 20 20 13 30 100 20 ǴƀͿ 13 13 15 15 20 20 15 15 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 250 298 255 300 280 210 389 280

WACCͿ 52 56 60 59 47 49 75 49

Ugrave 1-4 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divide LCOE FGyuml2008Ā

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

bPb 120 (167) oPk 5 (7) Uh 94 (131) ʟĴ ndash1 (ndash1) oPk 85 (118) bPb ndash1 (ndash1) bP 83 (115) Uh ndash3 (ndash4)

bQRm 67 (93) bP ndash3 (ndash4) ʟĴ 65 (91) mZ ndash6 (ndash8)

mZ 61 (85) bQRm ndash8 (ndash11) đɔb 68 (95) đɔb NA

Ugrave 1-41ʆampD1Ĵecirc3 LCOE4bPb3 120MWh167oMWhͿĎȲ7EmZ3 61MWh85oMWhͿ=-Gđɔb3 LCOE4 68MWh95oMWhͿLJŚGěĴ3 LCOE ɮ0)G34Ĵecirc3ɯoumlʰƾǓaeligƷ]bn˺ǞȰ31DGA3-Gș1ěĴ3 LCOE1HE3vgĒltƐKDŽG

ĎȲ5 DF˳Ͷoumlɯ]bnccedilǿ14gɷƑtzſĹͶ)amp˞0vgKĠSrYAElig

ʬ1Gǥʄ0sup3ŚKĠG10G1ʆampLJŚOacute4ǷǮ1ʆampsup2ń3ƴ˗BĴşǦ1ȣ-GD

1ș3ćʣ0shyȓ3gtKʆA3G ĎȲ6 Yacute1ampD1Ʒ]bnD7aRZnƈˬ4 2008ƀ3A3sup3ŚGś14Ʒ]bnͶ3

ɯȲʗͿ14 2008ƀsup2ntilde3ǘŒĠ=HGė˃ƟG ĎȲ7 ɐǯn 1o139-njʙ

8

17 LCOEzoacuteplusmnecirc

ŅĴccedilǿ-4ěĴ1G 43˞0]bnvg3 LCOE93ƐKDŽ)ampĴecirc1 LCOEKLJŚ63]bnvgKĴecirc3Oacute$3reg3vgKđɔb3Oacuteamp3ccedilǿ14

|bPɂŚļɆđɔb3vgOacuteͿȣampĴecirc3THORNoumlvg3ƐKegraveFamp

3ŅĴccedilǿ-ȏ˯amp˞0vg14ɯoumlƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnKĠ

ampș13ʫȁKszlig3Ĵ3-ȣamp AringěĴ3szligːǨ3 LCOE 93ƐKx 1-3 1ʆ3IJ4 3 3ǥʄ0˱bKȣ

ampA3-G=Ɍˎ3Ȍ[y4Yacute1Ugrave 1-4 -ʆampěĴ3 LCOE K˘A3-szligTHORNoumlvgKĴecirc1ʆGș1ʳ4đɔbKʆA3-|bP3 LCOEK 68MWhszligvgKđɔb3OacuteG=ampʲˎ3jn4ȼĜbKʆA3-szligːǨKĴecirc3Oacute

$3reg3vgKđɔb3OacuteG x 1-31-6 4$HHɯouml˫đɔͿƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnK˘G

Ĵecirc3 LCOEɌˎ3Ȍ[yͿđɔb3 LCOEʳͿ43IJ-AŚ˞0]bnvg4ěIJ-ɮ0)FHKV-ccedilFǦʆG

x 1-3 rmicroQ1tzfrac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀkwIumlsect

x 1-4 rmicroQ1tzccedil-1kwIumlsect

9

x 1-5 rmicroQ1tzigraveeacuteETHaeligkwIumlsect

x 1-6 rmicroQ1tzccedilntildeacirciacute-1kwIumlsect

ěĴ3˞0Ͷoumlɯ]bn3vg34sup23D1˷ǥ-GampH1E0Ϳ frac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀăszligːǨ3Ĵ1DG14==0aacuteD7Iumlecirc3˞įƐ

GAring5oPk-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ1D)aRZnɯ4ͶɅ3 Ć1ƹB

EHGmZ-4Ĵatilde3ǵɯ3^PnKɯGntilde1Ͷ3ʹˬ˩1D)Ǡœ3Ͷ

oumlɯ^Pn3ˬOtildeǭǝEumlHGľĜAF$3ʫȁĴatilde3eacuteǴ3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn3

2008ƀ1ˬOtildeǭǝ3ť0)GbPb-4ű3NZdbEHGamp2008ƀ1śǟHampɯaRZn3ǘ4ŚHampA310)GʟĴ14Uumlccedil1ˍō0ͶɅ

KDzGaRZn^PnǘŅGʳ93NZdbeumlɥė˃ɞEHGamp

aRZnɥ^PnȪŚ14FFľĜ1D)4ɯ3aeligoumlƶiacuteKGKƖ00)

GǞbQRm-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ4Ƿʃʐ3reg3Ĵ4ĪͲ10)0Uh-4

FIT3ĽŌ3szligːǨ3ǰņOacute-ȪEHGampǰ0^PnKɯampFǰǝ3ƴ˗KɥampFGyacutePdlOzŪ00)Gė˃ƟG

ccedil-1ăƷ]bn4Ĵ1D)˒ɮ0GmZ-AUh-AszligːǨ1ļ+

ugraveƭ3 FITĽŌͶ3Ƹ1Ɛƕ)aRZn3Ʒ]bn1ƐGmZ-4szligːǨampF3˚ugrave3ͳKǰņ1Gampņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶUacuteYacute

HGǞUh-4˚ugraveKszligːǨ3ʜıatildeGampDF]bn3ŘͶ

10

ƴ˗ˡˡHGmZ-4oumlʡʭ93ʡ]bn)ampͶoumlɯaRZn3

ŨTHORN]bn34aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZn3So_oumlȸʿͿ

ǓƱ)G$3ampmZ3ʡ]bn4Ʒ]bn1Ġ=H0bPo

Pk$3reg33Ĵ-4ʡ]bn$3reg3ʡʭŀƍ]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿǓ

Ʊ)Famp)H4Ʒ]bn1ĠEHGbQRm14Ʒ]bn3ethȿ

ė˃10GD0ćʣĀHampʡʭʡưGoPk-4ͶoumlɯͶɅ3 Ć

1ƼņampʫȁɯbrvbarȐʿ4$3˚UgraveưȠŅ3aRZn-gɷƑ3ņ0ͶK

DFľƯ1ˬʹGKƖ00)GƷ]bn4gɷƑD7tz3ǘOacuteņ

0GͿbPb-4ű3ͶoumlɯaRZnɥ^Pn93NZdb=ampˠ

ȕ3ʪȽKȘGampƷ]bn0)G ʟĴ-4ņˠȕ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥEacuteɲ4ɚ1Ͷ3THORN1EcircFɯȲˠȕ

ņ0G1HEgraveȉotildeƊHG˯ǥHGʟĴ3QOoyM4đɔbD

FAaRZnˠȕņƷ]bnfrac12ampʟĴ3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4ǘotildeƊĖEHG

ơƣGˉģȻ1bQRm-4aRZn3ˠȕņ0)AEgraveȉ3otildeƊ

3ơƣ40H4 2008ƀ3bQRm3ˬʹ]bnmampaRZnşȣŪ0)ampamp-ė˃ƟG

igraveeacuteETHaeligăěĴʆampʰƾ3mg4ʄśƟşǦ1Iacuteͱ-0ǘOacute-G

mZ-4żͶoumlɯaRZn3OumlȖʿ4 5Έ10 ƀ3Ǵɱʰƾ^wbŋʢKƛ˞FH4ƀʢ 25kWĽġHGUh-4ʰƾ14żaRZnszligiquest-Ś3EgraveȉHG^wbŋʢ]bnD7ĸdegĠ=HFĽġH

G]bn45Έ23kWņoPk-Aǰfrac12 5ƀ3řszlig0^wbŋʢƛ˞HGľĜGbPb-4ʰƾ3ʪEHGuacuteNZd`wlO

3ĪͲ0E71Ͷ3ɼȧBcentȵ1D)reg3ĴDFʰƾ0)GʟĴ3

ʰƾ4ƀŨTHORNHampņˠȕ0aRZn-4ſĹfrac120)GD-GʟĴ-4

YN~jZbzoG4ɯȗ3ĦKordfnjGǨǴǣG˯ƻAcedilEHF

ƕ)ĽġHGmg3ʰƾ4ũ˰EgraveHGė˃ƟGoPk-AOtildeĦ3ordfnj

ƛ˞HGampũˠȕaRZn-4ʰƾ0)G=ampoPk4szligiquest3

ʰƾ3˞0Ȓƭ˞ʥͳ0ŚǴɱɠĸˡŤ3]bnĽġHGbQRm

-4ʰƾaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒ɮ0)G ccedilntildeacirciacute-1ăͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bn4ʟĴsup2ń3Ĵ-4ĝʋƄ-Gm

ZoPkUh-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿub`n1ļ+Ͷouml

ɯaRZn3K˺Goumlmiddotʇ-GľĜKż4aRZn$3A31D

)K˺GmZbQRm-4ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˊɱ1frac12

bZ3Ʒȗ˟0H$HaRZn33ȪŚ1ēǧHGʟĴsup2ń33Ĵ-

AaRZn3˺3Oumlȣɞ40)Fż4 60Έ87-G ʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn˺ǞȰ4(E5Aringńɱ-G2008 ƀ14ʟĴ3Ņ3aRZnż1ˇŹǷȣɞ55 100Ϳ-˺HaRZn1ļ+Ouml4lte-)ampH4Ǖƃ3yacute3˚ugraveiacuteƄ3amp-F3iacuteƄ1DFgjZb

SZPlO13ʀEHGSZPlOyMPpbȇƉɯ˖1DGǷ˺Ϳ1ɚĀHampƏƩ

ƞŀampgjZbSZPlOyMPpbUacuteYacuteHampampʟĴ-4regĴDFAǷ]bn

0)G0J(gjZbSZPlO4żOumlDFAͿ=ampʟĴ-4Ouml1D

G˺1D)aRZn3ɅKʄIgraveampb-4aRZn-40Ȱlaquo|-

3OumlK)GľĜ)amp =-3=x 1-31-61ʆamp 43˞0]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥD7ěĴ3 LCOEđɔ

b3 LCOEKx 1-71ʆ

11

x 1-7 rmicroQ1tzordfUacuteIgravekwIumlsect

x 1-8 4˞0]bnŃǘ3 LCOE 93ƐKE1ȣȏ˪Gamp1˞0]bnvgKĴecirc-40[1G3IJ-4ěĴ3]bnŃǘ3ƐD7đɔbȣampěĴ3 LCOE3ņKʆGȌ[y4ěĴ3 LCOE KŀdivideGOacuteKʆʲ3Ȍ[y4đɔbDFAěĴ3 LCOE Kfrac12GOacuteKʆ˞0]bnvgKLCOE đɔbDFŀdivideampʋƄȌ[yͿ3ņ1E1ʆGAring5ɯouml3ǰũŃǘ4bPbĽġampǘOacute-G

3Ĵ3ʰƾƷ]bnDFA LCOE KŀdivideG3ǰfrac12OacuteEǰOacute=-3Ĵecirc3THORNoumlvg3ʜıEɯoumlD7Ʒ]bn LCOE 1ǰAƐampJGH4ˊ1Đ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOEƨƄccedilǿˈG (IEA 2010 Cory and Schwabe 2009)ˉģȻ1ĽġHampʰƾ3ʜı4đɔbȣƷ]bn˺]bnDFA LCOE ŀdivide1ƐG3E ʰƾmg3ʄśƟeumlɥė˃Ɵƕ)THORNoumlvg3Ĵ1DG3ņLCOELJŚOacute3ȜʄƟKEHampA31ampė˃ƟGʰƾ1įGŸɮKȿEampE0Gccedilǿ

ƛ˞-GʾEHG

x 1-8 tzSUacute-1JFQ5 LCOEoslash

12

18 rkzacuteRuumljfrac14divide-1

ECN3m1DF-0ȳ1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯƯ3 LCOEKLJŚG-GraquoɠǨɏ-eumlɥ-GȳaRZn3mg4EHFɚ1Ĵecirc3 LCOE KLJŚG31ƛ˞0THORNoumlŃǘ3řszlig0mgƉGƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ1GĴecirc3 LCOE ȣ4˖)E$3đɔbAˬ0sup23Ugrave 1-5 D7 1-6 1ĽġHG]bn˺3mg3KʆɫƧmZ-4ʡʭ93ʡD7ȷƂz3ƛ˞ƟKʇmiddotɱɥGamp

aRZn3ɯȐʿHKƺ0-G3ccedilǿ-ɥampm4aR

Zn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏ1ʑ)ampA3-GampmZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF1ēǧ0m

Āccedilǿ-4Aumlɥ0)ampHE3ʡʭʡ]bnKĠG-mZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF4

ʢ 3000kW10Gx 1-71HE3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1˟ʏA)amp LCOEyacuteYjKʆ

Ugrave 1-5 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+fOslashfrac12JFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn aRZn3ɛȯ 2007ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF

ʓŶƀ 2007ƀ 2010ƀƔĄ ɚŚH ɯƯ^Pc(MW) 20 23 50

Ͷļǘ 60 90 12 szligːǨ 3350 3800 3700 Ʒ(eurokW) 3315 1883 3230

ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 0 0 0 reg3]bn(euroMWh) 11 0 0 ʰƾijŚͿ

(euroMWh) 149 0 123

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 0 24 0

njʰƾʱͳ(euroMWh) 44 24 33

ˀɥƀǘ 15 25 20

x 1-6 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+faringmJFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 45 65 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 120 112 150 OumlotildeĜͿ 50 26 70 ǷotildeĜͿ 50 74 30 ǴƀͿ 15 13 12 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 255 250 298

WACCͿ 79 92 77

Ugrave 1-7 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+f LCOEthornFG

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

Prinses Amalia 166 (231) oPkˊcurrenɂ NA oPkˊcurrenɂ 156 (217) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 6 (8) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 88 (122) Prinses Amalia 5 (7)

13

19 T LCOEYacuteEgravesup2

LCOE4==0ɶɱuumlȗD7˸ʿ3amp1˩ʙHGˊźȤǕʘȪŚʿƷŞaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿʗě3ɚŚ3qcKɄamp LCOE KeumlɥGamp) LCOE 1AumlJHGưȰ4ȓ-40LCOEK3ʋƄ˳LJŚGG43ʋƄ3sup3Śƛ˞4AumlɥG˩ʙǞȰ1D)==-FH LCOE 3ʫȁ1˒ƐG3ampecirc3 LCOE ˩ʙǞȰK=-3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECNmD7ǞȰťȣsup21˷ǥG Aring5ș˩ɩ`pU-4Ʒ]bn3ɠķOacuteD7ʇmiddotɱotildeƊɞKɥotildeFƊampƀ]bn3ſ

Ĺ1ļ+ćʣĀampdeg˘OacuteKɥ LCOE K˟ʏAGľĜG3Ni-4OumlǷȣɞOumlǷ]bnǴȰlaquoʌ)ampǥʄ0ɅʄIgraveǼacute3sup3Ś0H0$3degJF3ćʣ

0ǞȰ-4otildeƊɞLOacute3gtKɥF$H1D)yacuteưȠ3ɚƙKszlig˘GIEA 3Projected Costs of Generation Electricityrdquo (IEA2010) D7IEA World Energy Outlook 2009rdquo (IEA 2009) 43NiKɥFsup23Ɖ1DF LCOEK˩ʙG

3Ni-4IEA 4otildeƊɞKʇmiddotɱɅ]bn13˘G3]bn4ʇmiddotszligiquestɚŚ

3ƴ˗1ƷG1ƺ]bnK˘ (IEA2010)3ʇmiddotɱ˟ĸEIEA4otildeƊɞ 5Έ10KɥF5KȣɱŘŚɱ0ɢĿ1GOumlyacuteŰ˖bZ3frac12ƷŞeumlɥ-Gɞ1310K˒ʪȽɱƴ˗ɱbZD7EgraveȉbZ1ɷGƷŞ3Ʒ]bn13G (IEA2010)DFćʣĀampș˩ɩ`pU1DFTHORNoumlvg3ǘKǰũ1˳ʧƄ1D)ěʍ3ɯĺ3 LCOE KşǦ1ȣG-G H41 ɯȐʿ4 ECNm3D0Ƅ0Xj`ymKAuml)ɚŚ3aRZn

ě3 LCOE0E71ȜģɠķEgraveOacuteatildeĔɲɞȽǴ)ampreg3yacuteƿȔK˰EgraveG3m1˜ǘ3ƯDzʿ3ǥʄ0˺3ntildeNjǼacuteʌ3Ɛ$3reg3ĔTHORNG4]bn3ƐKĠ

GľĜAGǨ143mKɥegrave3ɉķɱ0]bn3ȵHK˰EgraveampFparaȐ3ɚŚ3

aRZn93ƷKė˃1GeumlɲƖEHGD0SrYEgraveȉKȪŚampFG(Harper et al 2007)3˳ʧ0ǞȰKɥampľĜƷ]bnBƀʪ-0ǘŅ3˞į LCOE 1ƐG10GaRZnƈˬ3ǰʨɱ0ȪŚȖ4ƷŞ1GampͶoumlɯ3ʮʯɱ0ˬʹKė˃1G]bn3OacuteKɡ˥

G14ƷŞ3ˡɏKɡ˥G˞-G Aring3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECN m4ƾccedilƷŞ1ƯŚ3Ƿeumlɲɞ (ROE) KIgrave˯aR

ZnȢ1 LCOEK˰EgraveGamp3Ƅ0Xj`ym-GYacute1ampD1ECN3Xj`ymKE1˳ʧ0A31G-ǷD7OumleumlőKƾ˺ȒKǥʄ1˘-

G=ampͶoumlɯ3]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏE˘-aRZnKGamp

3ĔTHORN3ȵH-ɸȡ0H50E0Ͷoumlɯ]bnK˟ʏG-G

110 LCOEYacuteEgraveocircicedilplusmnecirc

Ugrave 1-8 4otildeƊɞ LCOE ǞȰKȣampA3-GXj`yccedilǿ3ćʣ0ǞȰƄ0ǞȰ3ǞKɥ3otildeƊɞ1 LCOE K˟ʏFreg3egrave3]bnvgKě3đɔb1ɔEŚampE1HEʿ3ǞȰ1D)đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿKɣ GotildeƊɞK˘G

t=1Tsum Ʒ t + ʰƾ t + ɗǛ t + Ɏʥ]bn t + ǑĐ t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

LCOE =

t=1Tsum ɯouml t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

Ϳ

14

ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3ˡɏELdeg˘ɱ0otildeƊɞ4Ȥ3aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿG4ƷŞ3ˡɏ1ʑ

)ampotildeƊɞ3OacuteDFfrac120GtimesğGIEA2010 1DH5ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3otildeƊɞfrac120)Gɡɦ4bZŪǘ3ȤƷŞ-40ǘŅ3IumllaquoƷŞ1ccedilǗHGampɷGbZ˺]bn

Ū00Gamp-G$H1sup1ʇmiddotɱˡɏE3 LCOE 3˟ʏFAȤƷŞ3˟ʏFDFAfrac120Gtimesğ1G

Ugrave 1-8 icedil LCOEsup2plusmnecirc

ǞȰͽˡɏ ˡɏ ˺]

bn3Ʋ ɥ m

otildeƊɞ3

ʜı

otildeƊɞ3ʜı

1G LCOE

đɔb3

LCOEKɣ GotildeƊɞ

ș`pU ˩ɩ3ćʣ˩ʙ

agraveɱʇmiddotɱ ƷŞ3ˡɏ

otildeƊɞ1 ĠG IEA2010 5Έ10

53Έ70MWh

IEA3ǞȰͿ

95 IEA3ǞȰͿ

ƄXj`

yccedilǿ

aRZn ɯbrvbarȐʿG

4ȤƷŞ ǥʄ1Śʻ ECN2008 75Έ15

(ROE) 64Έ76

MWh 10

ECN3ǞȰͿ

reg3szlig3Ńǘ1đɔb3ntildeNjǼacuteKɥ Ƿccedilǿ-ĽġHamp ROE3ʜı1ļ+

Ugrave 1-8 1ʆD1(E3Ni-ALotildeƊɞ3 LCOE Oacute1˒ƐG95otildeƊɞ4ʇmiddot3ˡɏK˘ʞɬ0˩ʙȰKɥđɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿK˩ʙG31ƛ˞0Oacute-Gƕ)Ƿʃʐ3đdivide˽ĴĽġampmg1ļ+0E3otildeƊɞ4ǰņOacute1+4-F

IEA-43ʜıK 5Έ10GH4ʞɬĀampʇmiddotɱ˩ɩǞȰKɥƄXj`yưȰ3ordmOacuteKǥE1ampA3-G 1frac12Ǟ3otildeƊɞNjȊHampŽ3ǰAfrac12OacuteͿˊƷŞ3bK˘amp1ɥEHGƕ)

LCOEK˩ʙG14=ampͶoumlɯ3 LCOEKreg3Ʌ3 LCOEȣG14aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏG4DFƁoumlʡʭ|3ˡɏ3(E1ʑ)GKǥʄ1GėȘ-G

otildeƊɞ3Ƹ4$3ˡɏ1ťƜGdz=LCOEK˘ěʍ3ƉKɥGľĜ4ʑˆGˡɏotildeƊɞ$3reg3vg3OacuteKǥʄ1˥Gƛ˞HG

111 Iumlatilde

IEAWind Task263ʫȁELCOEĴ1D)ņɮ0)GJG33ƄĜ4ɯoumlƷɥ˺)ampě]bn3Ɛ1DGA3HGcurrenƦFĴŞ3 LCOE3Ÿɮ1ǰAƐamp34Ƿɱ0ͶȯG4Ͷ3ƴ˗shyȓ1ļ+currenɂHGɯouml-G=amp

ǷɱǓaeligD7ͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ǽacuteņɮ0GEźľoumlAͶoumlɯ3]bnszligiquest

1˒ƐGE1ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾAěĴ-˒ɮ0FH LCOE 1ņ1Ɛamp 63ɂŚļɆ-SrY3]bnszligˊK˘ LCOE 3Ɵ4ĴBɶɱ˸ʿ$3reg3eumlɥʿ3

-ćʣ0ȣ-GD1ƝJHGLCOE3ěʍ3˩ʙ3ˡɏE3D10HampKȜʄ1ɡ˥Gƛ˞GLCOE4ɪaacute-Aordfnjė˃0˩ʙ-A0IɚŚ3qc1ɥHGDzɲ-Eacuteeuml0k-Gƕ)ȣD7$3ʫȁ3˥14ɫƧGdz=

rOtildemiddot

Cory and Schwabe 2010 ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financial Variablesrdquo httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2009) ldquoThe Economics of Wind Energy A Report by the European Wind

15

Energy Associationrdquo March 2009 Available at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentspublicationsreportsEconomics_of _Wind_Main_Report_FINAL-lrpdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2010) ldquoWind in Power 2009 European Statisticsrdquo The European Wind Energy Association February 2010 Accessed at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentsstatistics100401_General_Stats_20 09pdf

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review and Comparative Analysisrdquo Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 Accessed at httpeetdlblgoveaempreports63434pdf

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2006) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2006rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2006weo2006pdf

IEA (2008) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2008rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2008weo2008pdf

IEA (2009) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2009rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgWbookshopaddaspxid=388

IEA (2010) ldquoProjected Costs of Generating Electricityrdquo 2010 Edition Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgpublicationsfree_new_DescaspPUBS_ID=2207

RECaBs (2007) ldquoRECaBs Interactive Renewable Energy Calculatorrdquo Renewable Energy Calculator Accessed August 2010 at httpwwwrecabsorg

Wiser R Bolinger M (2010) ldquo2009 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy August 2010 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs2009_wind_technologies_market_reportpdf

16

Aring 2Auml NDQ+

21 NDQ+uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ȑ˞0E71]bn3ɚƙKG-

4 2008 ƀ3D7ȳͶoumlɯƴ˗1GĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1ɒɏKƎG

211 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

2008ƀǶ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ĝ˩ 3179MW 2756MWȳ 423MWͿ-H4 2007ƀǶ3ˬOtildeş1ťʢ 1252000ƀ3ˬOtildeşDFA 32ŀdivideG2001ƀE 2008ƀ=-1ŀdivideampˬOtildeş3ʢĄǘ4ȳͶoumlɯ1DGA3-G2008 ƀ1ȳ-ƈˬ3ȳQOoyM4 3F(64 2009ƀ1řƭA64 2010ƀʈ1ŐGcurrenŚ-GˮȲ 5 x 2-1 1ʆD1ŨTHORN3Ƅ4Ǵ15EņJG2001ƀE 2003ƀ1

ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 725MW ŀdivideamp2004 ƀE 2007 ƀ=-4 8MW ŀdivideamp10H4 2003 ƀ1śǟHampaRZn3ǕɱǓǎ˩ɩņŽ1ȿͳHampʫȁ-GHK˚amp1 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampǝamp0ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFͶ3ƈˬǝamp1ȲɶHG10)amp2008ƀ3 FITŨTHORNƔ2010ƀ 7DZǶ=-1Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 280MWŀdivideG (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ1D)mZ3ʱoumlȸ3ʢ 20AEligʬHG

x 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

ˮȲ 5 Roslashdsand IIȳͶoumlɯƯ4 2010ƀ 8DZ1ŐG

17

mZ4ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ƀșɶȔKŚ0EU 3˞Ȩ1DH5mZ4 2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯ-ʱSrYȸ3 30Kamp3˩ɩKʘŚ0H50E0EU-4szlig3divideɳĴ13aumlɣė˃SrY3ɶȔOacuteKƭGamp3˖uuml˩ɩ3AcircƭKʻyacutemacrFm

Z4 2010ƀ 6DZ1Ĵ3˖uuml˩ɩKɯ˘G3˩ɩ-42020ƀ=-1ˬOtildeşKʢ 4 GW$H1D)Ͷoumlɯ4 11000 GWh10GcurrenƦHG=ampʱş3 3ccedil3 1D7ouml3ʢ 50Kȳ1ˬʹGͶEƖGcurrenƦHG (Kemin 2010)(0gt12009ƀ3ɯouml4ʢ 6700 MWh-G2010 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3currenɂ4ěȚŵdivideɳĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010) ʁǴɶȔ2008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MW3divide0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ˬ

Otildeş 350 MW3ǝˬŚEHG3ɶȔOacute3Ąccedil4Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ1D)ƭA3-$H1D)ʦʏş4 175 MWŀdivideG10GĸǞ3˩ɩƎŬ42012ƀ=-1 350MW1divideş 150 MWKdivideGamp3˩ɩKˠŚ0H50E0 ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MWKdivideGʁǴɶȔ433ņˠȕ0ȳͶoumlɯƯ0J( Horns

Rev II209 MW2009ƀ 9DZŐͿRoslashdsand II207 MW2010ƀʈʓŶcurrenŚͿAnholt400 MW2012ƀ12DZʓŶcurrenŚͿ1DFƭHG˟gt-G

Ugrave 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

1761 2358 2464 2697 2708 2716 2720 2728 2717 2756 2985 2621

ȳ 11 50 50 210 423 423 423 423 423 423 856 1339

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 2-2 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

176 1 597 106 183 12 8 4 8 ndash11 39 ndash38 ndash135

ȳ 11 39 0 210 223 0 0 0 0 0 100 ndash14

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

212 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1iacuteŚHampaumlɣė˃SrYȰ1DFͶoumlɯaRZn3ǝamp0ĽiacuteƄŨTHORNHampǝamp03ͶoumlɯaRZnD7UoN13ȳaRZnĎȲ8-4HAszligːǨ

22000Ǩ1igraveG=-bjnźľEgraveȉ1divide 025mZZrkW0034kW ĎȲ9 0047okWͿ3ugraveƭNjAEligHGĎȲ10szligːǨ˫3Ǩ1igraveampƔ4źľEgraveȉKĖĕG10

G Ͷ1ť4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥƀǘ3Ǵ ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3˚ugraveƀ 0023mZ

ZrkW00037kW 0005okWͿ˚ugraveHG

ĎȲ8 UoNaRZn134ȳͶoumlɯƯ3THORNǸư4ecirc1ƈˬHGȳͶoumlɯƯ3aRZn

ŚʻHG13ȳͶoumlɯƯUoNɧ˻db1DFƈˬHG ĎȲ9 17353mZZr ĎȲ10 ɠ˖3Egraveȉ˚ugraveiacuteƄ4ͶoumlɯaRZn93ugraveƭK 1 kWampF 010mZZr0013Ϳamp

[1degJ)ŨTHORNHampA3-G

18

ˊɱ1mZ-4ͶszligːǨ- 22000Ǩ3ɯK˖147ƀE 10ƀGAring5 3 MWͶKˬʹGH5FIT4ș3D1ȪŚHGĎȲ11

3 MWͶszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 3000 kWh

3000 kWh times 22000 = 66 GWh FITʬ˺Ǚ˚ugrave43 MWͶ 66 GWhɯG=-3ǴǓƱJHG3Oacute4ș3D10G

(66 GWh times 025Zr) + (66 GWh times 0023Zr) = 18064200Zr

Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4ʽǹĀampͶKǑĐGǝˠ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1A

ɥHG3ͳ4ǑĐHampˬOtildeş3 2ETHKɣɤGamp3szligːǨ 12000Ǩ1ť 008mZZrkW001kW 00139okWͿ-GAring5 225 kW3ͶKTHORNǝˠ3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn1D)ǑĐGľĜˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugraveK˩ʙGsup23D10G

225 kW times 2ļszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 450 kWh

450 kWh times 12000 = 54 GW

ǑĐamp 225 kWͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4

54 GWh times 008Zr = 432000Zr 3˚ugraveɥHG34450 kWǵɄ3ͶKǑĐGľĜ1EHG3˚ugrave3ơƣKĖGamp

3ǝˠaRZn-ǑĐGͶ3ǘ1iacuteˬEHGJ-403˚ugraveɥHG34

450 kWǵɄ3ͶK˩ 175 MWKǑĐGľĜ1EHG szligːǨ1ļ+ FIT-4Ś3 kWh3ɯǨ-40ˊ1tzgɷƑņͶD

FAņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶ93ƷUacuteHGAring5 3 MW 3ɯȗ3szligːǨampFɯouml (kWh) 415 MWͶ3 2ETH-ƕ)ĖĕG˚ugrave3ͳAETH10G ș1ʆUgrave 2-3D7 2-44FITͶoumlaRZn1GͶ3Ƹ1ĒltƐKʆampA3-3

Aring4ś3aRZn1ļ+G

Ugrave 2-3 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITuh AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave[]psup312

ɯȗ3

ˠȕ

MWͿ

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ ouml

MWhͿ

Ͷ 1ļampF3aRZn]bn

(DKK)

oumlłͳ (DKK)

ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 223 098 30 90 90 7497 23430 5250 224 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 223 098 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 227 100

(Nielsen et al 2010)

ĎȲ11 3Aring4reg3Ĵ3ʒ14Ġ=H0ampmZZr-ĽġG ĎȲ12 ĝ

19

Ugrave 2-4 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITu AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave]

ɯȗ

^Pc(MW)

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ

ouml (MWh)

Ͷ 1ļampF3aR

Zn]bn

(DKK)

ouml łͳ(DKK)

˚ugrave

(DKK) ʱĔTHORN

(DKK) ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 1650 6610 298 100 30 90 90 7497 2343 5250 1650 6900 295 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 1650 8920 273 092 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 990 5220 281 094

(Nielsen et al 2010)

˫3AringEņĺ3gg1ƷGDFAņĺ3ɯȗ1ƷGǞszligːǨ1ļ+

FIT 3ơƣKĖBJGUgrave 2-3 1ʆHGD1ǰAʪȽucircɞ3ˍͶ4ņĺgKOtildeamp 18 MW3ȣɱũĺ3Ͷ-GH4szlig3Ͷ-Ś3ɯouml kWhKļ1ampľĜ3 FIT1AƎ4=GUgrave 2-4 EszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT E3divideɱĔTHORNƖEHB34gɷƑũtzfrac12 3 MW3ɯȗ-Fȣɱũĺ3ɯȗ4 3frac141ˑ(GJG

FIT3ļɆszligːǨKɥGjn4currenˠŚHampˬOtildeşKƭGamp1ˬʹHGͶ3ǘŪ00G-G=ampH1DFgɷƑtz3OacuteKGjnAŪ00G

HE 2 3ʹ˩ɩKʘŚaRZnKĸUcirc-ĖTHORNHAE1ĪͲ0GľĜGszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT 4mZ3ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ʁǴɱɶȔOacute)ampˬOtildeş1ļ+ǕʘɱɶȔOacuteƭHGD1Gamp3A3-G szligːǨK FIT 3ļɆG3mjn4˚ugrave1DFźľ3ȝgtɣ GampǰAʪȽɱucircɞ

3ˍͶƛAaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ1)ǰAͺoumlɱ0gw-400G-G

$3ampǰʨɱ14Ͷoumlɯreg3ɅDFA10F20mZ-43ƏƉ3 FIT AumlJHGampɯoumlKļɆampɶȔOacuteƭ1G]bn0Gʫȁ0G

22 NDQ+ 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-4mZ1G 2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKG-ɥampmg42008 ƀ1˩ɩG4śǟHampaRZn3ſĹOacute1ļ+A3-GͶ93Ʒ]bn4^Pn3Ǽacute1DFŚ-40mZ-4ɯ]bnȣɱŚGD-GˬOtildeş MWampF3Ʒ]bn14ǰņ- 503GeacuteƀƄ3ɯouml MWh ampFƷ]bn3Ńuumlɞ4 15ǵɄ-G

221 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para mZ3ͶoumlɯaRZ-n4ˊ1Ū0Ͷǘ3Έ12ļͿ3ͶʺKɥG˩ɩW

PoP-4Ū0A 3ļ3ͶKɷʳɛG4ʵB0ŔKNJD1=ʹGGH4ͶK 1 ļccedilǗɱ1ʹGˡˢɱĉƋ0GE-GmZ14ņˠȕQOoyM3AringGbPBʟĴņ0A3-40ǰņˠȕ3b4Ͷ 20ļKˬʹGʱş 63 MWͿ

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹŚȉş4 19 MW-F$3gɷƑ4 80 mtz4 72 m-G2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ-ǰAˊɱ034 23 MW3Ͷ-F$3tz4 80 mgɷƑ4 93 m-G

(b) BL0+Ouml mZ3Ͷğ4ˊ1˝ğ-GampͶ3^PnɡƦɱ034āȷȮų10G

20

ˊɱ1ͶɅ4ǾŪ00)GȮųĸŻ$3Ģ-4ƀſĹͶ 7 msKGH4 2 MWͶtz 80 mͿ1ļ1ťszligːǨʢ 2500Ǩ1ɸƎG(Danish Energy Agency 2010)2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3 2009ƀƄ3szligːǨ4ſĹ 2639Ǩ-)amp2009ƀ3mZ3ͶɅ4żƀ3 88-2008 ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3szligːǨ4szligˀɥƀǘſĹ-ʢ 3000 Ǩ10GcurrenƦHGɫƧszligːǨ3LJŚOacute4mZszligiquest3ͶɅl`1GA3-402008ƀ1ˬʹH2009ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+˩ʙampA3-G

(c) ccedil-1 2008ƀƄ3deg˘ɱ0aRZnƷ]bn141100kW1529okWͿE 1300kW1807

okWͿ=-F$3ſĹ4 1250 kW1738 okWͿ-GEgraveȉ4 2008 ƀ1xZ1ampƔ2009ƀ 2010ƀ1ņŽ1frac12GɚƙG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ1GͶ3ʰƾ4IgraveIcircɡ^wbŋʢĸdegĵĸʚɡ3 4 ɶ-ȒƭH

GHE3ɶ$HHͶoumlɯƯ3ɣȹʰƾ3ʢ 25KĈG2008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlɯaRZn1currenƦHGɣȹʰƾ412MWh17oMWhͿ-G (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m4ƀ|b3Ouml 80-K˺GaRZnKɥGmZ1GȤ

ƯDz3Ͷ4ˊ1ƎƅOgraveŋʢ1DFK˺Gegrave3ĔTHORNKƎƅOgraveŋʢ1Ʒ FͶ

3ƯDzʿ43ļKɷDžeumlɥG-0Ʒ1ťGeumlɊ93ǓaeligǓƱ4szligOumlȖʿ3Ƴ˴

ʻyacutemacrEHG mZ3ɡƦɱ0aRZn4100Ouml-K˺GaRZn-Gż3aRZ

n-4Ouml1DG˺3otildeĜʢ 800)GͶoumlɯaRZn1ťGOgraveTHORNĮĔǴĖTHORNHė˃034 15ƀsup2atilde-G

2008 ƀƄ3ƎƅOgraveŋʢ3eumlő4ʢ 5ͼ-H4 5 ƀijŚHGͶoumlɯaRZn4reg3ƷȗɱbrvbarȐȣȵuumlƟ˟0HGampˊ1eumlőfrac120)GͶoumlɯaRZ

n3bZ˞įKʚɡ-Gegrave0ưȠGEͶ93Ʒ4bZfrac12˟0HG mZ1GǝˠaRZn3ľĜʣɤɞ4ż 9Έ11-G3amp 5~73bZ

Nė˃10G3EA1983ƀE 2002ƀ=-3mZ˯icircȇƉĕƊƯ3 OMX203bZNſĹ 72)amp3ȣͶoumlɯaRZn3bZȣɱfrac12JGĎȲ13 (Saabye 2003)

(f) s_N3N9A Ͷ30ĔTHORNɅ4NordPool źľK 3oumlłFIT Ə-3Egraveȉ˚ugrave-Gʬ˺

ǙbrvbarȐʿ3Ͷ3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢK 5ƀ=-ƇG-GĎȲ14HE3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢ4 Nord Pool3Yacuteəźľ1Ɇ ʴʫHG

(g) Q54Q1 mg4 Economy of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ1

ļ+A3-G

222 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para 2008 ƀ1mZ-ŐampȳaRZn40HA˩ɩG4ƈˬȠ1GȳQ

OoyMɯ4ˊ1Ǖƃ3˴ėKƖEHG10G3˴ė4THORNǸʋKEHG

A3-szligːǨ 50000Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml kWhampF3THORNǸ1ťǰfrac12Egraveȉ3A31˴ė

ĎȲ13 Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark ĎȲ14 10ƀijŚEgraveȉKNjAEligGǝˠ3ɯAɰľG

21

aeligHG10GHornz Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand I amp II4THORNǸʋKʪśɠampaRZn-GAnholt3ǝȳQOoyM3THORNǸǴ4 2010ƀ 6DZ1ʨpoundG$3ˬOtildeş4 400 MW-2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-1KŐG10G UoN13ǞƉĎȲ15QOoyMA˴ėHGUoNǞƉQOoyM3ˬʹlaquo

ƖEHH5Ͷ1Aĝ PdlOz[ɥHG10Gɠķ=-1 2 3UoNǞƉ3QOoyMƈˬHG

(b) ccedil-1 mZ1GȳQOoyMɯbrvbarȐʿ3Ʒ]bn4˴ėiacute3THORNǸʋKʪampʢ 200 MW3

ņˠȕQOoyM1ťʢ 2700Έ3000kW3753Έ4170okWͿ-G ȳQOoyMKĴatilde3oumlʡʭȳŃĶˬOtilde1ʡGamp3]bn4mZ-4Ĵƺ

GampaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷʱͳŪ00)GɢĿƐ˰Egravebrvbarntilde3ȷƂĸ˰Egrave3]

bnAĴƺG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳQOoyM3ʰƾ4ʭ˩mgEHF=ampȳQOoyMɥʪǬʳ

ƞthornKƭGamp1ʄśƟmZ3ņˠȕȳQOoyM3ɣȹʰƾ4ĸ

Ļ3ɛȯ1DF 18MWh25oMWhͿE 20MWh28oMWhͿ=-G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mZ3ņˠȕQOoyM3˺4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ȪʙǴszligiquest1ɀ)˖JH

GsmOjZƷ˖E3OgraveTHORN˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM1eumlɥHGraquoH4

aRZn93˺Ə-˖JHGJ-40Ϳ˴ ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4ż 50ƍ3Ƿȣɞ-˺HG mZ3oumlmiddotʇ3Ƿ]bn4ʢ 112ͼ Ouml]bn4 4555˩ʙHG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) s_N3N9A ˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml3ijŚEgraveȉKĖĕ)

GijŚEgraveȉ4THORNǸdb-ȪŚHGTHORNǸEgraveȉ4˺ǙHampƿȔ-40szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ĔTHORN Nord PooloumlĕƊ-3ł-ƖEHampƔ1ȪŚHGHorns Rev II3ˑǸEgraveȉ4 0069kWh0096okWhͿRoslashdsand II4 0085kWh0118o kWhͿ-GźľEgraveȉ1ťGEgraveȉ˚ugrave4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿTHORNǸEgraveȉ1Ɯ NjAEligGźľEgraveȉTHORNǸEgraveȉDFľĜQOoyM

Eʡʭɥʿ1ŸͳKǓƱJ250E0 ˴ėiacute-0G4UoN13ǞƉ3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 22000 Ǩ1G

=- 0034kWh0047okWhͿD7Ͷeumlɥ-Greg3˚ugraveKĖĕG

(f) Q54Q1 Horns Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand II3ƈˬ]bnʱͳ1Gmg4eumlɥė˃0agraveɱƥĽmZ3ȳ

QOoyMɯ3ŦŞD7ȳQOoyMƯDzʿ0E71ȳQOoyM3˺

ʿ93ˁĕF˺ȆE1THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙEƖampA3-G

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacute3ȑ˞-G

ĎȲ15 UoN13aRZn4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3THORNǸʋKʪ1˖JHGȳƈˬaRZnŚ

ʻHG3 23QOoyM1divide13ȳɯƯUoNɧ˻db1D)ƈˬHG

22

Ugrave 2-5 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ16

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ17 ȳ

2008ƀĎȲ18 ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 23 23 23 Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 3 91 90 ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2700 4300 3865

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 25 25 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1250 2844 3000

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash (1738) (3953) (4170) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 12 (17) 20 (28) 18 (25) $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 3 (4) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆ Economics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010

Ugrave 2-6 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 50 55 45 Ƿeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 110 112 112 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 80 45 26 Ƿ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 20 66 74

WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 52 88 95 Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 13 10 13 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 25 25 25

FXn $US 139 139 139 FXn DKK ndashndashndash 7353 ndashndashndash 7353

ǛΆEconomics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aeligIacuteɥļ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ

Ugrave 2-7 NDQ+uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 447 (621) 28 (39) 447 (621) źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 37 (51) 70 (97) 85 (118) FITǕʘǴ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 22000 50000 50000 ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

LVRT ˮȲ 6ĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ǛΆNielsen et al 2010 Danish Energy Agency 2008 Danish Energy Agency 2009 ĎȲ16 2007ƀ14mZ-ǝamp1ƈˬHampͶ40)amp ĎȲ17 2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ȳ1Ͷ4ƈˬH0)ampȳQOoyM 3ƈˬG4˩ɩȠ1)amp

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ĎȲ18 -ɥampAring42008ƀ1ƈˬŋʢʴʫHamp Roslashdsand II3THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙG ˮȲ 6 LVRT (Low Voltage Ride Through) Ķɾfrac12Ǩ1AͶ0ͶoumlɯƯ3KʮʯʡʭŘŚƄKʰƾGȗ˃

23

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24

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25

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26

Ugrave 2-8 2007 2008NDQ+uumljfrac14divide LCOEpsup321

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

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(LCOE) euroMWh

($MWh) ndashndashndash 61 (85)

70 (97)

81 (113)

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(110)

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rOtildemiddot

Danish Wind Industry Association httpwindpowerorgenknowledgestatisticsthe_danish_markethtml September 2010 (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)

Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2007 2008 (Danish Energy Agency 2008) Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2008 2009 (Danish Energy Agency 2009)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Ministry of Climate and Energy National handlingsplan for vedvarende energi i Danmark 2010 (In English National Action

ĎȲ21 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampĔɲʱͳͶoumlɯǕʘͽPdlO

zD7yacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜAG

27

Plan for RE in Denmark) (Kemin 2010)

Nielsen et al Economy of Wind Turbines 2010 EUDP (Nielsen et al 2010) (Original title Vindmoslashllers Oslashkonomi)

Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark (Saabye 2003)

28

Aring 3Auml lt8

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2009ƀȳQOoyM3ʖ 1Ě0)amp Alpha VentusʓŶampH1DFȳ3ɯŧǽŐ=GA3ǴƒHGoPkǕƃ4 2015ƀǶ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʢ 25 GW1GɶȔKɯ˘G

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ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

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29

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312 s_CcedilN3N9A

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30

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ȏȆIgraveƴ˗ʚɡʪȽʚɡSrYȸ1JG]bnĸdeg$3reg3]bnĠ=HGƀ3

ʰƾ4 2007ƀ1 4571kW635okWͿ-2008ƀ4 4633kW644okWͿ-)amp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m1LǷɞ4 30Oumlɞ4 70)ampźɨǻ3đdivide4ƦŚ0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ

Oumleumlɲɞ4$HH 9555-)ampUacuteɱ0 FIT 1D)ʡʭ93NZdbIgrave˯HF=amp FITE3ŚͳǓƱAIgrave˯HGampĔTHORN3bZ˰Egravefrac120F$3ʫȁeumlAfrac120)G

31

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ĔTHORN4SrY3 FITD7GǛEƖEHG2007ƀ1ƈˬHampaRZn3ĽŌ4 819

MWh11384 oMWhͿ-ļǷǛ4 518 MWh72 oMWhͿ-GaRZn^Pn31ļ+3ĽŌiacuteƄ4 183ƀɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 mg4 EEG (2004) DEWI Magazine Nos 32 (2008) and 34 (2009) D7 Deutsche WindGuard GmbH ZSW3

amp1Acircƭamp EEG(2008)3Ɔț1GʉŕɱĽġǮEƖampȰlaquoʌ3Oacute4 Destatis (2009)1ļ+

322 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

sup23ƥĽ42008ƀsup21ƈˬHGcurrenŚ3ȳQOoyM1ļ+A3-G

(a) BL0+para ȳaRZn1DFȳ1ˬʹampͶ 12ļ3ˬOtildeşEʦ˩- 60 MWKɯ-GƦŚ

G3aRZn^Pn4 Borkum1G East FrisianŴ3ʢ 40 kmȫĜ3āȷ1frac14ʹȦȻʢ 30 m-G3ȷųE3ȦȻ3ʪȽɱEacuteɲKƖGamp14Śȉaeligoumlʢ 5 MW3ȳͶƛ˞10G3^Pn3szligːǨ4 3700Ǩ10GcurrenƦHG

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3ȳQOoyMKEHampľƯ1D7ȻȦĻ1ƈˬGamp3Ʒ]bn4ɪ

ſĹDFA3230kW 4490okWͿ3]bn3atildeˮ4ͶļʅŃƯzʗ-Gʡʭ93ʡ4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿ3micro-GampaRZn3Ʒ]bn14ʡʭ93

ʡ]bn4Ġ=H0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳͶoumlɯ3ʰƾ43ʰƾDFA˒0)GȷųEHG-

ǷĵEȳ3Ͷ=-3əlaquoħ3]bn0GE1ʰƾ14atildeD7ń3bgj

y3laquoacuteD7ƛ˞0ˡŤBIgraveʪȽʚɡBƴ˗ʚɡˌˋordf3ɴˡ)amp]bnĠ=HGoP

k3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ƀʰƾ4123kW171okWͿ10GcurrenƦHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȳ3aRZn3ƷŞ143ľĜDFAeumlɲɞƛ˞10Gȳ3Ƿeumlɲɞ12ͿA

Oumleumlɲɞ65ͿA3ľĜDFA0GOumlǷȣɞ7ť 3Ϳ4ƦŚHampaRZnȣŚ-Gś14aRZn3˺Ȓ1D)Ū)GAring5aRZnˇ

iquest-G4ub`n1DF˺G0Ϳė˃ƟAG

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ȳͶoumlɯ3ouml4EEG3 FIT1D)ƱƮHGƦŚampm1˧5EEG20041ļ+

otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 91 MWh127 oMWhļǷǛ4 619 MWh860 oMWhͿ-G3ampotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4ȷųE3aRZn^Pn30E71ȦȻ1ļ+ 145 ƀǓƱJHG10G

(f) Q54Q1 mg4 EEG(2004)D7 Deutsche WindGuard GmbH ZSW3amp1Acircƭamp EEG(2008) Ɔț1Gʉŕ

ɱĽġǮ1ļ+

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 3-354sup21G LCOEccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacuteK˘

32

Ugrave 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 2 2 NA 5 Ͷļǘ ļ 5 5 NA 12 ɯ szligːǨ 2260 2260 NA 3700

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA 20 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1259 (1750) 1373 (1908) NA 3230 (4490)

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 4571 (635) 4633 (644) NA 123 (171) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 149 (207) 152 (211) NA ndashndashndash $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

Ugrave 3-4 lt8uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 55 55 NA 65

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 95 95 NA 120 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 70 70 NA 70

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 30 30 NA 30 WACC ͼ 56 56 NA 68

Ǵ ƀ 13 13 NA 15 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 298 298 NA 298

FXn $US 139 139 NA 139

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard Destatis

Ugrave 3-5 lt8uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 79 (110) 78 (108) NA 84 (117) FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA 20

ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ

ƀ NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 16 16 NA 16 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

323 lt8oumlRBL0+yuml2008ĀrmicroQ1-1plusmnecirc

x 3-2EoPk3 LCOE85MWh 118oMWhͿǷĽġǮ-Yacute1ampđɔbDFA˒ccedilG$3ɡɦKsup21IJʆG

33

x 3-2 lt8uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup323

324 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) BL0+dj LCOE 3KAampEG34aRZn3śʷ-GʾEHGđɔb3ş

4ƀszligːǨ 2630ǨoPk3ļǷaRZn3szligːǨ4ƀ 2260Ǩ$HDFA4G1frac12

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4 1373 kW1908o kWͿ-đɔbDFA 76

kW106okWͿfrac12)ampLCOE1˧5H4ʢ 3MWh4oMWhͿȿ1ɸƎG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAʢ 7MWh10oMWhͿH

4ŚǴɏȏ3śǟQOoyMũˠȕ01DGcurrenOtildeĦ3Igraveʚ]bn3Ǥ)ampɡɦ1DG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 oPk3aRZnđɔb3Ÿɮ4ʢ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-H4˺Ȓ

31įG

(e) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4ƦŚ0

325 s_F(=2E

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯ14EEG1ļ+ FITɥHGoPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn EEG2004G4 EEG20093-ƲJHGF$Hsup2ń3ĔTHORN4˟=H0E1oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎGamp3reg3PdlOzKŨTHORNG4ƧIJHE$3currenƦA0

ĎȲ23 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4ĭǂcopyTHORN3ampđɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3

Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

34

x 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup324

326 aringmH7B

x 3-31ʆampD15MWh7oMWhͿ3yacuteYjɣ FH4szligːǨʰƾ3Ÿɮ1DGA3-G

33

-LoPk3QOoyM3Aring4Śȉaeligouml 2MW3Ͷ 5ļ-ȒƭHGaRZn3szligːǨ42260ǨƦŚG3m3ƦŚ1ļ+LCOE485MWh118oMWhͿLJŚHampNjAEligHamp FIT1DFaRZnɯǨȐʿ3yacuteYjampFʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ10GǛ3Oacute4 EEG-ˠŚHG

Ugrave 3-6 lt8Iumlsectpsup325

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

85 (118) NA 135

(188) ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

79 (110) NA 84

(117)

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

5 (7) NA 46

(64)

rOtildemiddot

BMU Leitszenarion 2009 ndash Bundesministerium fuumlr Umwelt Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit Langfristszenarien und Strategien fuumlr den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland ndash Leitszenario 2009 (2009)

Destatis Statistisches Bundesamt wwwdestatisde (last access December 2009) ĎȲ24 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAG ĎȲ25 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

35

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 32 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122007 (2008)

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 34 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122008 (2009)

Deutsche WindGuard Deutsche WindGuard GmbH on behalf o Zentrum fuumlr Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Wuumlrttemberg (ZSW) Vorbereitung und Begleitung bei der Erstellung eines Erfahrungsberichtes gemaumlszlig sect 20 EEG (2008)

EEG 2004 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich (2004)

EEG 2009 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich und zur Aumlnderung damit zusammenhaumlngender Vorschriften (2008)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

36

Aring 4Auml JN6

41 JN6uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

411 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬʹş42000ƀ3 447 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 2121 MW1ŀdivide3( 228 MWȳͶoumlɯ3ş0)GͶoumlɯ1DGƀ3ɯouml42000ƀ3 08 TWhE 2008ƀ3 43 TWh1ŀdivideGǞ2008ƀ3Uh3ʱȸouml4 119 TWh-)ampͶoumlɯ3ʁǴɶȔ42008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 2000 MWdivideG-G3ɶȔ3ƭ1DFˬʹȽgtG4ƈˬ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʱş4ʢ 4000 MW10G2009ƀ14950 MW3ȳͶoumlɯ3THORNǸŐHGȳͶoumlɯ3ɶȔOacute42020 ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 6000 MW 1G-Graquo EU 3aumlɣė˃SrYƿplusmn3ʻyacuteKɄGamp34 2020ƀ=-3ɶȔOacute45178 MW-G x 4-1 D7Ugrave 4-1 4-2 4D7ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71ěƀƄ3

ʁǴɱD7ǴɱɶȔOacute3currenɂ-Gszlig3şmg4ěƀǶ3mg-Gɏ1ɫƧ-GU

h4ǠœͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ14ɶȔOacuteKŚ0

x 4-1 JN6uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 and Rijksoverheid 2010

2000ƀ3ƀŨTHORNş4ĝƀǶ3ʦʏˬOtildeşĝ ş1ˬŚHampUgrave 4-21ʆȜģƀŨTHORNş4

ǑĐampͶoumlɯaRZn3ȜģˬOtildeşKĠL-GUgrave 4-2 1ʆamp2009 ƀE 2012 ƀ=- 2012ƀE 2020ƀ=-3ěǴ3ȜģƀŨTHORNş4ě3Ǵ3ſĹƀŨTHORNşKʆGsup23˘1ʆˬOtildeş4UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ1ļ+ˬOtildeş3currenɂ-GRijksoverheid 2010Ϳ

37

Ugrave 4-1 JN6IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0447 0485 0672 0905 1075 1224 1453 1641 1921 2727 6000

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0108 0228 0228 5178

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 andRijksoverheid 2010

Ugrave 4-2 JN6regwoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0038 0038 0187 0233 0170 0149 0229 0188 0280 0202 0409

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0 0 0 0619

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010Rijksoverheid 2010

412 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1ǝamp0 FIT ĽŌ˩ɩ-G SDE ˮȲ 7ŨTHORNHamp3 SDE bX3-Ͷoumlɯ3ś3ɯ]bn1˟ĜotildeŀĕEgraveȉoumlčEgraveȉ1divideǓƱJHGE1aumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗93Ʒ

1fynʌiacuteUacuteLjʹKɥGjnSDEotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3Ȃʩgtatilde-ȏ˪HG

42 JN6VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-Uh3deg˘ɱ0D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZnK˷ǥG

421 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh4 2003ƀ1szligːǨ|b-ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎG FITiacuteƄKŨTHORNamp2006ƀ=-4

szligːǨ 18000 Ǩ=-3aRZn1ťǰ- 10 ƀ FIT NjAEligHamp2008 ƀE3 FIT 1DGǓǎ4szligːǨ 2200 Ǩsup23aRZn1ť˖JHG10)ampſĹszligːǨ4ƀʢ2000Ǩ-$3ˊɱ0ʜı4ƀ 16002800Ǩ-G Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4FITǓǎ3˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZnKʆGĎȲ263

aRZn-4$3Pq`NlOz3ņĄǕɱ1ś˖ė˃0]bn3|KˬŚGdeg˘ɱ0

34 15 MW3ũˠȕQOoyM-ͶoumlɯaRZn3ņĄ 23 MW3ͶgɷƑ 90 mtz 60Έ80 mͿKAuml)G3ĸĻ-4iacuteˬEHFHE3ĸĻ-4tz 4060 m3 450800 kWͶˊɱ-G

(b) ccedil-1 aRZn3deg˘ɱ0Ʒ]bn4 1000kW1390okWͿE 1600kW2224okWͿ

=-Fˊ1Ʒ]bnszligːǨAŅ0)G

ˮȲ 7 SDE (stimulering duurzame energie) UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrYD7ɖAtildeʬ1GǓǎbX ĎȲ26 đɔaRZn134Ƿccedilǿ-ɥampđɔb13KƿA3-401ȲƧ

38

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3atildeˮ4ɯouml1D)ŃuumlGA3 9Έ12 kWh13Έ17 okWhͿż4ɥ

ŐE 5ƀ3^wbŋʢ1DGͿˬOtildeş1D)ŃuumlGA3 25kW35okWͿĸdegʡʭʡ]bnKĠͿ-GƔʿ3Oacute4aRZn1D)˒ɮ0Gś3ʰƾ4ƀ 23otildeĜ-ŀdivideGƦŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷKēǧampƀ|b3Ouml 80-˺GaR

ZnKɥG˚ugrave3NjAEligʿ-GͿǕƃ4ˇŹǷɞ 15D7Oumlɞ 6ͼKȜƦŚGoumlmiddotʇ4ub`n1ļ+˺K˖)GȰlaquoʌ4 255ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A 0ĔTHORNɅ4Yacuteəźľ-3Ǵŋʢ1DGoumlł-FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ1D)yacuteYj

K)Gyumlƽɱ0dividePdlOzfynSrYƷotildeƊ1D)NjAEligHG

3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4˹ʌė˃0ĔTHORNɅKƾamp0ɯbrvbarȐʿKĠ==0brvbarȐiquest1ɥHF1

43iacuteƄ1DFƯƖʌ 421ťeumlɲKƖGɯbrvbarȐʿAG

(f) Q54Q1 -ɥampmg4Uh3 FIT otildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3˩ʙ-ɥampđɔaRZn3agrave˘mg-

G (Lensink et al 2009 Cleijne et al 2010)

422 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh3ȳͶoumlaRZn-4ƈˬ˴ėKƖǰņ 50 m2ˠȕ3QOoyMKƈˬG-

Gƕ)deg˘ɱ0ȳaRZn3ˬOtildeş4 100Έ300 MW-Fʡʭ1NjAEligHGȜģɯouml4szligːǨ 3300Έ4000ǨɸƎ-G2008ƀ1 Prinses AmaliaQOoyMřƭamp1ʆmg14$3]bnȒ4ƛAĠ=H0

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4 2500Έ3500kW3475Έ4865okWͿ-G2008ƀ1řƭampaRZn4$

3ǘƀntilde1Famp˴ė3iacuteǼacute3ampȣɱũĺ3 V90ĺ 2 MWͶKɥG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ɥbrvbarȐʿ3ɥśʷ3Ū01DFʰƾ14ņ0ʄśƟœķGƀʰƾ4 90

kW125okWͿLJŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZn|b3˺ȒKɥF$3Ouml3otildeĜ4 50-GPrinces

AmaliaQOoyM3˺4aRZnȢ1˖)GWACC3ƦŚOacute4ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3Ƿ]bn3ordmOacute-H4 NuonShellƯDzG OWEZecirc3Ǡœ3ȳQOoyM1ɥEHampOacute-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A Ǡœ3QOoyM4Ǣ MEP˩ɩ1ļ+˚ugraveKĖF97MWh135oMWhͿ3ijŚ

FITĽŌKƖampfynPdlOz3˚ugraveɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 3mg4Ľɯ˘$3reg3agraveɱ1eumlɥ-GƥĽ1ļ+A3-ƥĽ1ŸɮGľĜ4ʆHamp

ƥĽ1ļ+m[-˚)G

39

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘1ěƀ1ƦŚampD7ȳͶoumlɯ3OacuteKʆ2007ƀ3aRZn]bn4 2008ƀǨ

ɏ3n1G-ʆGUgrave 4-5 3ouml3źľEgraveȉ14ĕƊ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnǴŋʢ3otildeƊɞĠ=HG

Ugrave 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 1 15 120 NA Ͷļǘ ļ 1 5 60 NA ɯ szligːǨ 2000 2200 3350 NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 15 NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1120 (1557) 1325 (1842) 3315 (4608) NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 40 (56) 24 (33) 92 (128) NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) NA NA NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

Ugrave 4-4 JN6uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 5 5 5 NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 15 15 12 NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 50 NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 50 NA WACC ͼ 60 60 79 NA

Ǵ ƀ 10 15 10 NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 255 255 255 NA

FXn $US 139 139 139 NA

Ugrave 4-5 JN6uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (81) 56 (78) 59 (82) NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 663 (922) 28 (39) 97 (135) NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ 37 20 44 NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

43 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ƛ˞0˴ėKƖG3ampogP0)

G

40

431 JN6uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 4-2 JN6rmicroQ1plusmnecircxpsup327

(b) BL0+dj Uh3Ͷ3ːɞ4ʢ 25-FszligːǨ 2200 ǨͿđɔb3 30DFAfrac12FIT 1DG

˚ugrave4szligːǨ 2200 ǨKGG4 SDE ˠiacute3˳ʧKʾƬ$HDFAfrac12ˬŚHGͿamp2200ǨDFAŅɯGamp3PdlOz4ŚHGE1˞0˞į4B4FͶȯ-G

432 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4Đ3ĪͲ1EcircGė˃ƟGszligːǨ 2200Ǩsup2KɯGPdl

Oz4ŚHGͶ3ˬ˩$HHBBɮ0)Fƕ)EgraveȉŘ0Gė˃Ɵ4ǃ-0

Aring5ĝ ɯȗKAuml)AgzoũľĜƷ]bnfrac12szligːǨŀdivideG

(b) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ0)Gį4ĸdeg3-Fƀʢ 10kW15okWͿ-G

(c) ccedilntildeacirciacute-113T-1 đɔbȣGUh3Ͷoumlɯ4Ȱlaquoʌȣɱfrac12 (255ͼ) eumlɏAGǑĐ]bn

4ʾƬ0

433 s_F(=2E

Uh3ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ43ʍ͵3PdlOziacuteƄ3ơƣKĖG-G$30A34 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ-2007 ƀ=-1HK˞ȨampaRZn1ťMEP ˮȲ 81DF 10 ƀijŚotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligH2008 ƀsup21HK˞ȨampaRZn3ľĜ4SDE 1DF 15 ƀŃuumlotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligHG3 FITiacuteƄ1divideaRZn3ľĜ4ǰņƷ]bn 600kW834okWͿ1ťƷ]bn3 443ʌdž3Ʒ˚ugrave (EIA) D7otildeƊɞ 13fynKeumlɥG

ĎȲ27 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ ˮȲ 8 MEP (Milieukwaliteit Elektriciteitsproductie) Uh3oumlɣɤ1GȰƓ

41

-G

x 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup328

434 aringmH7B

Uh3yacuteYj42007 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn1˧5Ugrave 4-6 đɔͿʢ ndash36 MWhndash50oMWhͿPpb3Oacute10)GH4Đ3MEP3 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3ˬ˩3Ș1DGA3-˚ugraveͳ3ļɵ0)ampoumlEgraveȉK 2Έ3 MWh3Έ4 oMWhͿfrac12ƦŚamp1DGoumlEgraveȉ 6~8 MWh 1ǤG1HŪ0AoumlEgraveȉ4ͶoumlaRZn4ż1ͺoumlɱ0A310)ampƔʮiacuteƄ-G SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ1ļ+ 2008 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn143ȘĕFHyacuteYj4 ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿBBPpb3Oacute10)GěʍaRZn3ɯ]bn3Ž4ndash3 DFA4G1ņɏ1ȲƧG3ampndash3MWh4oMWhͿPpb3Oacute4eKņĮGA3-40 ȳͶoumlɯ3b3yacuteY4Ɗʯ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-)ampH4ɷDžƖampyacuteƥ

Ľ1ļ+A3-40Princes AmaliaQOoyM3Ȫʙ1İɣ amp4ǥE-G

44

Uh4ŧǽ1A 2020ƀ1AD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Dzdz0ɶȔOacuteKŚGɠķ3 SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ4HKśɠGamp3ǰA˞0k-G43 Eacute3ccedilǿʫȁEUh3brvbarAring1GyacuteYj4ʹ˒-40JG ugraveKƖampɯouml4szligːǨ 2200Ǩ=-1iacuteHG3ǘOacute4Uh3Ͷȯ1ċampA3-G2200Ǩsup23ɯ1ťGPdlOz4ŚHFHAƷ]bnfrac123į-Gė˃ƟGʰƾ4ĸdeg3ampȣɱ

0)G

ĎȲ28 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

42

Ugrave 4-6 JN6Iumlsectpsup329

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

91 (126)

94 (131)

166 (231) NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

127 (177)

96 (133)

161 (224) NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash36 (-50)

ndash3 (-4)

5 (7) NA

rOtildemiddot

Cleijne JW SM Lensink and CJ Faasen (2010) SDE Wind op land met vollasturen en differentiatie [SDE wind onshore with full load hours and differentation] ECN-E--10-001 Petten January 2010

Lensink SM JW Cleijne M Mozaffarian AE Pfeiffer S L Luxembourg and GJ Stienstra (2009) Eindadvies basisbedragen 2010 [Final advice SDE premium base rates 2010] ECNKEMA ECN-E--09-058 Petten November 2009

Rijksoverheid (2010) Nationaal actieplan voor energie uit hernieuwbare bronnen Richtlijn 200928EG [National Renewable Energy Action Plan Directive 200928EG] Den Haag June 2010

Statistics Netherlands (2010) online databank httpstatlinecbsnl VoorburgHeerlen August 2010

ĎȲ29 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

43

Aring 5Auml 1CN

51 1CNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bP3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯŮ1G=ampɚŚ3 EU 3ɶȔ1ļ+ CO2ǃaeligethȿ3amp

1 2020 ƀ 2030 ƀ1ƦŚHGɶȔOacuteKʆE1ˠiacute3ȂʩgtK˷ǥGraquo$30Ȓƭ˞ʥK˟ɷordfȾoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3]bn3ƐKŪ0Gamp1ɠķ˖JHGͿ E1 2008ƀ1GbPźľ3deg˘ɱ0QOoyM3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) K˷ǥ$3sup3

ŚKregĴ1GͶoumlɯ3]bnȣG

511 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac12frac34laquo

2009ƀǶǨɏ-Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4 19149 MW1bP3oumlʡʭ1 3ɭɶ1ņ0Ʌ0)GbP3Ͷoumlɯɯ4 90ƀdegĄ51Ő=F2001ƀsup24ǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşƀſĹ-ʢ 1800MWdivideHampˠiacuteǔȜHamp 2004ƀ 2007ƀ14Ĵɟplusmn 4362004D7 6612006Ϳ3şņŽ1ŀdivideamp3ˠiacute3ǔȜ1DF$HKeumlɥampǝˠaRZn3ʑ(EumlHamp

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯouml42009ƀ3bP3SrYʱ˞3ʢ 14KĈG x 5-14ŅĴȣ3ťƀ-G 2008ƀ=-1bP1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3H=-3ʦʏˬOtildeş

ƀŨTHORNşKʆG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3mg4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3SrY˖uuml˩ɩNREAPͿ1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)2020ƀ3currenɂ4SrY˞3 20Kaumlɣė˃SrY- EU3ɶȔƭ1ğampǘOacute-G

x 5-1 1CNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

x 5-1 4bP-H=-1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşD7notƔˬʹHG˟=HGˬOtildeşKʆG=ampƀŨTHORNşKx 5-21ʆ2009ƀbPǕƃ4 2010ƀE 2012ƀ=-3ěƀ1ˬʹG MWşKiacuteGamp3otildeƎKŚG1amp=ampoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3ƐKȿ Gamp3˩ɩKnotƔ3Ȱplusmn1ʩgtL-ɯ˘ampszlig3aumlɣė˃SrY]aRr`3

Ĝ˩ş 6000 MW4ʱoumlĕƊ3 25KĈH4ʪȽĊȗ-4ɚ1]bn-GͿ

44

bP1GȳͶoumlɯ30Ł4ņȍ0-F3ampȮų3ȦȻ 50m 10)Gƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ-4ͳ0ļʅ˞0F$3ampHE3aRZn3ś˖ė˃Ɵ4iacute

HGE1aacuteʡɏ-4ȺĀŇɓWbļĸ1ˬʹHG]uPo^PZWbgw3

ɯ1DG~nrjZœķGampNZdbşEHampA310)G

Ugrave 5-1 1CNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

16 22 34 49 62 85 100 116 151 167 23 35

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 5-2 1CNoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

16 06 12 15 13 23 15 16 35 16 15 14

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

512 s_CcedilN3N9A

Ȱɱ1currenƦHGEacuteɲKĖGamp14ͶoumlɯaRZnKɚecirc3iacuteƄ131ccedil͵Gƛ˞G

ʟĴ3ȉ˴ŚiacuteƄĝȓͿH4ͶoumlɯaRZnʡʭ1UacuteYacuteDžʯ-GũłbrvbarȐʿAacuteocircouml

KĕE250E0Ϳamp=ampEgraveȉˠiacuteHGamp-GĴɟƿplusmn 6612007-˘ǥHampD1Ͷoumlɯ3ǓƱbX14ˠiacuteǛbXźľĎɡ3 2G

ˠiacuteǛbX4QOoyMƯDzʿƸampǴ1GͶoumlɯ3ʻyacuteɱ0ijŚĕƊ

Egraveȉ-Gx 5-23ǘOacuteͿ ǰʨɱ0Egraveȉ 1Ǩ3ɪEgraveȉoumlPdlOz1ļ+oumlčźľEgraveȉ3ʩgtĜJ-Ȫ=GI3źľĎɡ4ĽŌ13AĤ5HGƕ)ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿĖĕGǛ4

Egraveȉ1ŷęHG10F3Egraveȉż1frac12ľĜ4ǰfrac12Egraveȉsup2-H5ˬ

EHGx 5-34ˠiacuteǛ3đɔOacuteKʆG

x 5-2 Ucircgntilde1)QEAcirc ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

45

ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ4ntildeǡźľ3ɯ˩ɩKNjaeligcurrenɂKɥ3˩ɩś3ɯouml3currenɂ˶ŸKȿE

D1GE1==0ĸĻ1ƈˬHampQOoyMɸuml1˚Ugrave-˶ŸKŪ0Gamp

1==0aRZn[ĀHG3`bl1DFN``bl3ȴɥ

ʬ˺ǙKǰĀG-$3]bn34ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿǓƱ)G2008 ƀ4ʢ 15 MWh205oMWhͿ-)amp ˫3Oacute4Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120071D)ȸʿEgraveȉƿǘ (CPI) 1ļ+ǭǝH2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝ

ɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp x 5-34Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073ǟ˖sup2Ɣ3 FITǛiacuteƄ3ŃuumlKʆampA3-G2007ƀĴɟƿplusmn 6612007

1DF CPI1Ȯ) FITǔ˨HG10F2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp2010ƀ14ǭǝHampOacutePpb10FntildeƀKĮ)ampH4 CPIe1)ampamp-G bP3ʡʭɥʿ-G Red Electrica de Espantildea (REE) 1DH5ˬ Otildeş3 94ijŚEgraveȉĕU`

1D)ɥHGampčoumlźľEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ƐH0x 5-4Ϳ

x 5-3 ~BINcentIcircceyuml~[umlāntildeĀ ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

x 5-4 dividejo~uumljfrac14divideethyuml2008Ā ǛΆ Spanish TSO (REE)

Ͷoumlɯ3ņccedil4čźľ-ɷDžłHGampĽ4Egraveȉ1ņŷęHŇɓWbEgraveȉȦouml

ɯ3ɛȯ0E71Ĵźľ1G CO2 Egraveȉ3Egraveȉ1ƐG3amp 2008 ƀ14ſǡEgraveȉ4 6443MWh8956oMWhͿ0F2007ƀ3 3935MWh5470oMWhͿK 64Į)ampH4ɠķ=-1˫HampEgraveȉ-ǰAͳ-G Ͷoumlɯ3źľĕƊEgraveȉKx 5-31oumlčEgraveȉKx 5-51ʆYacute1ampD1Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073brvbar

Aring-43Egraveȉ4E=-3ʜıatilde1GſǡoumlčEgraveȉ1ļ+EgraveȉĽŌ3Ĝ˩Oacute-G

46

x 5-5 dividejBQK[umllcedilyuml2003Ą2009Ā ǛΆOMEL and Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

52 1CN 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-2008 ƀ1GbP3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKHKreg3đdivideĴ1GͶoumlɯɯ3ěʍmȣG

521 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

ɚecirciquestiacute13`blKeumlɥGamp14bP3QOoyM3ˠȕ 50 MWK40E0ˬ ʹampQOoyM3ſĹˠȕ4ʢ 25 MW-˩ ʙQOoyM3ˬOtildeşK 2007ƀA 2008ƀA 30MWsup3ŚG Ğɶ3ɥǨ4Śȉaeligouml-ƀ 1700ǨE 2350Ǩ=-==-G2008ƀ3szligĴſĹ4 2085

ǨͿ=ampaRZn3đɔOacute4 2007ƀ- 2200Ǩ2008ƀ- 2150Ǩ-)amp bP-ɥEHGszlig3ʪȽm-4aRZn3ɥǴ4 20ƀGraquoH4Q

OoyM3śʷ4E0Ϳ2007ƀ 2008ƀ14aRZn3Py^PZK 20ƀG

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹˠȕ4 1985 kW-2007ƀ3 1621 kWEJ1ŀdivideamp3m-ȏ˪G34 2000 kW3Ͷ0J(3QOoyM-4 2 MW3Ͷ 15ļͿ-G

x 5-6 2008THORNOacuteuumlegrave2bszlig ǛΆ Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

47

(b) ccedil-1 ƀ3Ʒʱͳ0)amp34Zb III D7 IV ˮȲ 93ņĺͶoumlɯ˙ʹˬʹHampE-

FƎeacuteEĶʡʭ93ʡBěʍʌcurrenɂHampJ-40 $H1AJEƀ4ĎǺǛ]bn3frac121DFͶ3]bnȿŪG=ampǕĊȗˠiacute3

Ńǭ1DFͶ3˞Afrac12ampQOoyM93Ʒʱͳ1ĈGͶ3]bn4ʢ 70Έ73ͼ-G3]bn4ĎǺǛ3Egraveȉɠķ3[jo]o1Ɇ ampƛ˞0ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵ1šDž1EcircG

2007ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn14Ʒ]bn4 1233kW1714okWͿ2008ƀ14 1250kW1738okWͿLJŚHG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾAaeligoumlƶiacuteȒatildeoumlȸ3amp3oumlǛˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵŀamp1DFŀdivide

Gʰƾ4 2007ƀ 1910MWh2655oMWhͿ2008ƀ 1963MWh2729oMWhͿLJŚHG100ͼŃuumlͿHE3]bn4|3ŃuumlƟdegǯĦ3eumlɥė˃Ɵƛ˞HGɕʶƴ˗ʿBȗȋ˙ʹ)amp˞į1G Ͷoumlɯȗ3^Pc4ƼņGͶȯ3ǰAD^Pn4-1eumlɥHGampŚȉǨ4ȿŪ

G10G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȞĘɱ1bP-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯKbPĴatilde3˖3oumlD7ŘŚampȰɱȂ

ʩgt1ļ+aRZn3yacuteiquestiacute1D)˺amp$H1AJEȵuumlƟKȘamp˺iacute

Ƅ3amp13 2ƀ-ɛȯŃĀAgraveE3ƺIgrave1DGIgrave˯ƛ˞10)G ˺]bn42007ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ1ˬŚHG2007ƀ2008

ƀAǷOuml3ȣɞ4 2ť 8-G2008ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A źľ93ł1DGĔTHORN42007ƀ1 394MWh548oMWhͿ2008ƀ1 644oMWh895o

MWhͿ-)amp3ĔTHORN1ť2007ƀ1 348MWh483oMWhͿ2008ƀ14 215MWh299oMWhͿ˰EgraveHamp FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideHGFITǕʘǴ4(E3bA 20ƀ1ijŚHG

(f) Q54Q1 1ʆampmg4bPͶoumlɯąmiddot (AEE) D7 Intermoney śǟampʃʐ1ļ+A3-G

522 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

bP3ȳͶoumlɯSN4 62SN1ccedilotildeHHE3SN-4ͶoumlɯˠiacuteHGHE3SN1ťTHORNǸ˖JHG10G3śɱPq`NizK5currenɂHGQOo

yM3ˠȕ4ʢ 1000 MW-G

(b) ccedil-1 mg0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig mg0

ˮȲ 9 Zb III4sectʬ˵Ũɯȗ (DFIG) D7ccedilŚȉ3]ugKɥampͶZb IV4ĝǴɯȗD7y

Śȉ]ugE0GͶccedil͵HG3ccedil͵ǞȰ3˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

48

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mg0

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A mg0

(f) Q54Q1 mg0

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 5-25-54sup23 LCOEccedilǿ-ɥampm[3ntildeNjǼacuteKʆA3-G]bn3sup3Ś4szlig 2007

ƀ 2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZnK˘A3-2008ƀnǨ3-˘ʆG

Ugrave 5-3 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 30 30 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ 15 15 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ 2200 2150 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1233 (1714) 1250 (1738) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 191 (266) 196 (272) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA

Ugrave 5Ă4 1CNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 9 10 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 6 7 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 NA NA Ǵ ƀ 15 15 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 30 30 NA NA

FXn $ 139 139 NA NA

Ugrave 5-5 1CNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 53 (74) 54 (75) NA NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 34 (47) 35 (49) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ

ͼ 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 20 20 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 36 (51) 37 (52) NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

49

523 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 5-7 1CNrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup330

(b) BL0+dj bP3ͶoumlɯaRZn4đɔbDFAˬOtildeeumlɥɞfrac12ͶȯbP3szligːǨ1Ɛ

GampbP3 LCOE4đɔb3 LCOEDFA 18MWh25oMWhͿ0)Gđɔb3ſĹːǨLJŚ 2680Ǩ-G31ťbP4 2150Ǩ0)G szligːǨ4bP3 LCOE đɔb3 LCOE 3Ÿɮ13ǰA˞0Ńǘ-GͶȯ1divide

ʰƾAđɔbKĮ)FH14ĸdegD7ĸĻBˇȬiquest˞ȨGeumlɲɞAĠ=HG LCOE33˷ǥ0Gʖ 33˞į4˺]bn-F3ͳ4aRZn3WACCD7ǰʨɱ

1ě3Ʒ1˞ȨHGƷĔɲɞ (ROI) KŀdivideG

(c) ccedil-1 bP3Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4ʢ 1250kW1738okWͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 200

kW278 okWͿŘbP-4Ʒ]bnfrac12ampLCOE 4 10 MWh14 oMWhͿfrac120G ǑĐ]bn4QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘʨpoundamp3ɯˬOtilde3˥iquest]bnKĠampͳ-ʱƷ]

bn3ʢ 3ͼKĈG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bP3brvbarAring1Gyacuteɛȯ1ˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlɲɞ4đɔbDFA0)G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig bP-4ʰƾđɔbDFA0)GbP3ʰƾʱͳ14ʌĸdeg

ʚɡ]bnKĠamp3ŃuumlĠ=HGnotƔ3ʪethȿoumlˇŞȸǛ3ǤˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ

˜Ɵ3=F1DFʰƾAŀdivideG˟gt-G ſĹbP3ʰƾ4ʢ 196MWh272oMWhͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 7

MWh10oMWhͿ

ĎȲ30 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

50

524 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

Yacute1ampD1bP14 FIT iacuteƄͶoumlɯ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄͿźľiacuteƄźľEgraveȉͶoumlɯ3ĽŌͿ 23ǓƱiquestʡG2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ3ʢ 91ͼKźľiacuteƄ1DFłampH4ɯȐʿDFŅ3ĔTHORNKƖEHGamp-G x 5-8 4ĔTHORN3ŃǘȥǛͿͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOz3ŃǘbP1GźľiacuteƄ

3ĽŌͿKȣampA3-G

x 5Q-8 1CNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup331

525 aringmH7B

bP3mccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿ-G3EſĹbP3ͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOzEaRZnɯ

3yacute˞acuteKɄamp-G3ăccedil0Xj`yKƖGJG

53 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 5Ă6 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+psup332

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

76 (106)

83 (115) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

87 (121)

86 (120) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash11 (ndash15)

ndash3 (ndash4) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2009) ldquoEoacutelica 09 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Julio 2009)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileANUARIO20COMPLETO5B15Dpdf

ĎȲ31 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ32 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

51

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2008) ldquoEoacutelica 08 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Junio 2008)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee- publicaAEE_anuario_ingles08pdf

AEE ndash Intermoney (2006) ldquoEstudio de costes del sector eoacutelico Realizado por Intermoney para AEE (2006)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee-publica060612-Gen-EolicaEsp- PRALpdf

Comisioacuten Nacional de la Energiacutea (CNE) wwwcnees

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Red Eleacutectrica de Espantildea (REE) Spanish TSO wwwreees Royal Decree 6612007 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacionRD_661-2007-REpdf Royal Decree 4362004 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacion(36)RD436_2004pdf Spanish Market Operator (OMEL) wwwomeles

52

Aring 6Auml 1$QN

61 1$QNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bQRm3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙ0E71 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿK˷ǥG

611 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş42004ƀ1 474 MW)amp3 2008ƀǶ14 937 MW0)Gx 6-1ͿbQRmĆ3ȳQOoyM3ˬOtildeş4 2007ƀ14 110 MW-)amp=ampqN`N133Ƀ-3ɯAEHG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯcurrenɂ4EUdivideɳĴ3ěĴaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 3mg1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)

x 6-1 1$QNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_Uacuteuacute

ǛΆVinkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 and European Commission 2010 Ugrave 6-14bQRm1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=amp

Ugrave 6-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 6-1 1$QNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

220 220 272 322 381 429 470 560 698 951 2065 4365

ȳ 10 20 23 23 23 23 23 23 133 133 150 182

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

53

Ugrave 6-2 1$QNoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

ndashndashndash 05 51 50 59 48 41 90 138 253 278 288

ȳ ndashndashndash 10 25 0 0 0 0 0 110 0 4 4

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

612 s_CcedilN3N9A

bQRm-4aumlɣė˃SrY1DGɯ3ǓǎʘĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ (TGC) KŨTHORNG$3ɶɱ42016ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 17 TWh1ŀB-G3ɶȔOacuteK2020ƀ=-1ė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 25 TWh1GE1OacuteGampɠķ3iacuteƄ3ǔȜȏ˪HG=ampbQRmsQR3aacute`bl3Ȓʝ1ğampordfȾ˖J

HG 2008 ƀ=-4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ˖ɢĿĽŌ13AĤ5HGijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) Ͷoumlɯ

1ɥHamp3ɢĿĽŌ134ȳͶoumlɯ14 2009ƀ=-eumlɥė˃-)amp=amp 2003ƀ1vPjnaRZn3Ǔǎ˩ɩŐHampȳͶoumlɯţaringȥNtildeȎȀĸŻ-3Ͷoumlɯ)

ampˉģȻ˟0HampaRZn12008 ƀE 2012 ƀ=-3Ǵ1 3710 5160 oͿ3currenʙotildeƎEHG

2006 ƀʈǕƃ3ɢĿƐccedilǿ1Gˠiuml0E71ǝˠͶoumlɯaRZn3˴ėdbʞɬĀH25 MW=-3QOoyM4ˇȬiquest1ŭaeligH5ˬʹ-G0)amp ͶɅ3eumlɥ1GƥĽKƁcedilGampbQRmǕƃ3Ũ3Ͷoumlɯ3eumlɥ1GĴatilder

jnZĎȲ33ȒʝHamp3rjnZ1DFͶoumlɯ3˩ɩʘŚD7˴ŚʋuacuteOslashoumlbrvbarȐ3ɯ

Ůʰƾʚɡ1Gʀ˾KȻbQRm3ͶoumlɯɯaRZnKEumlH

G E1Ͷoumlɯ3]mOrgKɥɯbrvbarȐʿEcircƎŬ0E71ĸUcircĸĻĴ3ě|1

GEcircʿ3ordfȵEumlKIJ)G

62 1$QNVUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

621 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bQRm-43aRZn3szligːǨ4 2600Έ3050 ǨĽġHGżbQR

m3Ͷoumlɯj1ʆHGszligːǨ4ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿNjaeligampǘŒKĮ)

G3amp˩ʙ-4bQRm3aRZn3ǰʨɱ0ͶoumlɯǨKĽġHampʜı3 2600ǨͿG

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3aRZn42008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZn3]bnD7ɯoumlēǧ

Hampdeg˘ɱaRZnŚʻHamp Ƿ]bn4ampF 12171915kW1692Έ2662okWͿ=-Fmccedilǿ-4 1591kW2212okWͿsup3Śamp

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3ijŚccedil4ſĹ 0004 kW0006 okWͿŃuumlccedil4ʢ 11 MWh15 o

ĎȲ33 httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse đɔ

54

MWhͿLJŚG3Ńuuml4 7 MWh10 oMWhͿE 24 MWh33 oMWhͿ=-FvPjnaRZn1Gʰƾ4ż1ŃuumlņɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒

ɮ0)G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 Ugrave 6-51ʆD1mccedilǿ-4OumleumlőKƷŞżĽġG 5˟L-GͶoumlɯ1Ʒ

GparaȐ3middot˩Ľġ3ccedilǿ-420ͼƍOuml]bnʆHGbQRm3paraȐccedilǿEŨaeligampƛ˞0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞʫ7macrOumleumlőɞK 5LJŚampľĜͶoumlɯ3]bnKũ˰EgraveG10F20

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ǵŋʢ1DGźľ93oumlłŨTHORNHGĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ

23ĔTHORN3ȵH1D)KƖG(E3ĔTHORNɅAʄśƟż12008ƀ=-FITĽŌiacuteƄAɥHFͶoumlɯaRZn4 2 MWh3 oMWhͿŪͳ3ĽŌKĖamp

(f) Q54Q1 LCOE˩ʙ3mg4˫3D0ɥǓǎ˩ɩ3ʫȁD7Ĵatilde3_3amp1bQRmSrY

Ŭ=ampmg)amp˜ǘ3ƥĽɅ1ļ+A3-GǑĐ]bn4 Svensk Vindenergi (2009) 3mgKAumlɥampbQRm3Ͷoumlɯ˩ɩ1Gʭ˩Oacute4bQRmSrYŬȢƀɯ˘

GĽġǮ ES20103 ldquoVindkraft statistic 2009 (Wind power statistics 2009)rdquoD7 Vindkraft Statistik 20081ļ+G2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯǨ4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ3mgKAumlɥGE1Ͷoumlɯ3ɯȐbrvbarʿEʆmg3NjAEligKĖamp=ampEcircGotildeƊɞKǥE1Gampmiddot˩ǛKđɔampE14˚Ǜ O2 0E71 AriseȇƉźľ3ŨTHORN1GbrvbarȐaeligɘəEŦŞ3Ƨ˟KƊɥamp

622 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

2008ƀǨɏ-ŨTHORNHampbQRmǰņ3ȳaRZn4Lillgrunden3 11 MW3aRZn-)amp3aRZn4 Vattenfall 2004ƀ1Ɗʮ2007ƀ1ʡʭ1ʡHampLillgrundenaRZn-4 Siemens3 23 MWͶ MKII 48ļAumlɥHG$3( 13ļ4 2004ƀsup2ntilde1ʡʭ1ʡHGbQRm3ǰǝaRZn4 3 MW3Ͷ 10ļKOtildeamp GaumlsslingegrundaRZn-H4 VaumlnernɃ3Ģ 7Έ13m1ļʅKˬʹampqN`N133aRZn-G

Ugrave 6-3 LillgrundenBL0+Z

Lillgrundenmg Ά ļɆȷDF 115 m gɷƑΆ 924 m ʱʏΆ 6734 m2 iacuteƗǞȰΆ ėŃxjiD7ėŃƄ gƄΆ 6Έ16 rpm ǰņYacuteʔƄΆ 280 kmh gΆ 60 t pdΆ 82 t gΆ 110 t LJŚƀɯoumlΆ 6875500 kWh ˬOtildeeumlɥɞΆ 35ͼ ſĹͶΆ 85 ms

55

Ugrave 6-4 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 235 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 41 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2600 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1591 (2212) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 0004 (0006) NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 16 (222) NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 6-5 1$QNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 12 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 87 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 13 NA NA WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 47 NA NA

Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 28 NA NA

FXn SEKeuro ndashndashndash 942 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

Ugrave 6-6 1$QNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 50 (70) NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 25 (35) NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 2 (3) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 1 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

623 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

x 6-2 1ʆD1bQRm3 LCOE 4đɔbDFʢ 1 MWh1 oMWhͿfrac120)G

56

x 6-2 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1psup334

(a) BL0+dj bQRm3szligːǨ4đɔbDFAH4ͶoumlɯaRZn1eumlɥ-Gĵĸʏ

^[ampreg3Țŵ˽ĴDFAņampƎɓ3-G

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3Ʒ4oumlɯaRZnTGC `bl2001 ƀEŨTHORNͿ0E71Ǡœ3 NordPool

ʡʭ1995ƀEoumlĕƊͿ3amp1đɔbDFABB0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig đɔbbQRm3ʰƾ3Ÿɮ4ǰũ3A3-H4^1DGė˃Ɵʹ˒

-40

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bQRm3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12H4bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ93Ʒ1

GbZ3|frac12E-FbQRm3Ͷoumlɯɯ1GʪEƎɓ3˧G

x 6-3 1$QNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup335

ĎȲ34 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

57

624 s_CcedilN3N9A

ĔTHORN4 1Ϳoumlł1DGĔTHORN2Ϳ[˯Ǯł1DGĔTHORN3ͿFITE3Ūͳ3ĔTHORN2009ƀ1ƆțͿ3 3-ȒƭHG ĔTHORN4źľE33ȵH-GampʄśƟņ0b-4ȥǛ4 50 MWh

70 oMWhͿ-ŘŚG˟0H[˯ǮEgraveȉ4ʢ 25 MWh35 oMWhͿ)amp2009ƀ1OacuteHamp

625 aringmH7B ſĹɱ0aRZn14ouml3źľEgraveȉ TGCiacuteƄ3˚UgraveKʩgtĜJG-ăccedil1]bnK

-GD-G

Ugrave 6-7 1$QNIumlsectpsup336

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 75

(104) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash8

(ndash11) NA NA

63 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 6-7 1ʆampD1bQRm3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˇŹǷ]bnD7Ouml]bnfrac12amp1ǷdivideſĹĎEgrave (WACC) ȣɱfrac120)GD-GaRZn3AEligʬ4Ouml1DGǷ˺1DGA3-macr3˺Ǵ4 20ƀ-G$HDFAmacrǴʁľĜA$EG˕Ǵ3ʨpoundǨ1ʸFHG bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ4ȞĘ=ampƀƞ1ƭG2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrY

ɅK 25 TWh1GɶȔKƭGamp14ͶoumlɯKE1ɯŮƛ˞G

rOtildemiddot

Dagens Industri wwwdise 2010-03-16 Storm kring vindkraftsbolag

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

E24 wwwe24se 2010-03-16 Vindkraftsbolagen anklagas foumlr glaumldjekalkyler Nationellt naumltverk foumlr vindbruk (national network for winduse) httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse

Svensk Vindenergi 2009 Vindkraftverk ndash kartlaumlggning av aktiviteter och kostnader vid nedmontering aringterstaumlllande av plats och aringtervinning

Vinkraftstatistik 2009 ES 20103 2010 Swedish Energy Agency available at

ĎȲ35 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ36 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

58

httpwwwenergimyndighetenseGlobalPressPressmeddelandenVindkraftsstatistik202009p df

Vindkraftstatistik 2007 ES 20082 2008 Swedish Energy Agency available at httpwwwenergimyndighetenseen

59

Aring 7Auml 11

71 11uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bPb3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙacirciquestɱ14 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿ3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1GbPb4atildeĴ-GampȳaRZn4œķ0ǪˤIgrave3ampɃȭĸĻ4ɠķͶoumlɯ^PnEńHG

711 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş41996ƀ3 2 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 14 MW1ŀdivideampͶoumlɯ1DGƀɯouml4 2000ƀ3 18 GWhE 2008ƀ3 2020 GWh1ŀdivideampH1ť 2008ƀ3ʱ˞ouml4 587 TWh-Gɠķ˩ɩEHGaRZn1D)2012ƀ14 65 MW3ɯė˃10GLJŚHGǕƃ3SrYǕʘ-4 2030ƀ1 44 MWKɯGɶȔKljG

x 7-1 11uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

Ugrave 7-14bPb1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 7-24ĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-1 11IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

28 28 451 455 456 866 116 116 116 136 176 65 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

60

Ugrave 7-2 11oacute_ethyumlMWĀ

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

28 00 170 065 001 350 290 002 000 200 400 150 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

712 s_CcedilN3N9A

bPb-4 2008 ƀ1oPkĝȓ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄFITͿKŨTHORNamp3`bl4LJŚHG LCOEKamp3A3-GFIT 1Ġ=HG34oumlźľEgraveȉ[ouml3Oacute-GͶoumlɯ14bPb3 FIT4 110MWh153oMWhͿΈ130MWh181oMWhͿ1ijŚHG

72 11VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

721 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZn42 MW3Ͷ 6ļKOtildeamp Juraű˅Ȕ 1000Έ1200 mͿ3

QOoyM-GbPb1GͶoumlaRZn3L2 MW3ͶgɷƑ 82 mtzʢ 8 0mͿKɥG3ĸĻ-4NZdbiacuteHGamp1gɷƑg31ˬEHFŚȉaeligouml 800Έ1000 kWtz 40~60 m3ͶKeumlɥG

(b) ccedil-1 bPb1Gdeg˘ɱ0aRZn3ě3Ʒ]bn4ampF 1790 kW2488 kWͿ-G

Țŵ1GͶ93Ʒ]bn3otildeĜ4ſĹʢ 76bPb-4 55~6810)G34bPb3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn93NZdbďiacuteHGamp=ampbPb-4laquoacuteż1amp-G

3ampɯƯ3ʪȣɱ0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ14bPb-4śʷŪ0ampEWEA agrave˘ampʰƾ3ȣ1ļ+bPb3ʰƾK 31MWh43oMWhͿsup3Śamp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 sup23˘4bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥamp˺]bnKʆG

Ugrave 7-3 ccedilntildeacirciacute-1YacuteEgrave

źľeuml 5 ƛ˞0Ƿeumlɲɞ 7

Ƿ3otildeĜ 30 ˀɥƀǘ 20ƀ ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ 20ƀ

Py 0 Ǵ 20ƀ

ȰlaquoʌɞOECDͿ 21

61

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A bPb14aumlɣė˃SrYɯ3brvbarȐeumlɥ-Gɜʑ3ĔTHORN`bl 2ʍ͵G 64 FIT `bl-H4sup23]bn˩ʙ3ļɵ0GA3-3ȽKĖEHG34Ȧoumlɯ

10 MWsup2atildeͿňɖɯͶoumlɯuPUb0E71uPUbƆǺ-Gaumlɣė˃SrYɅ[vͿ1DGɯ1ɥė˃03Ǜ`bl4ɯǞƉaeligoumlecirc1đɔˬOtilde1ļ+acirciquest

ɱ1ˠŚHěƴ˗3 LCOEK-Gshyʩgt10)GȽ4ɯǞƉ1D) 20Έ25ƀ3Ǵ1ɥHGcurrenƦHGƴ˗db0E71HE3ƴ˗3źľĀEuml1DFHE3Ǜ`bl

-4ͳ3Ƞɱfrac12currenƦHGǛ3ȿͳɥHG34ɰampɯˬOtilde3gt-FHE3ˬ

Otilde4ȽǴK ŚampǛ`bl1DFȽKĖGɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKLľĜ$HĝǨ1oumlźľ-[oumlKłG4-00G ʖ 2 3ĔTHORN`bl4[oumlźľ-GɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKeumlɥ-0ľĜ4źľ-

oumlKłG10Gż$3ĔTHORN4ɯbrvbarȐʿoumlmiddotʇ3ordfȾ1D)ȪŚHGoumlĽŌK

ouml3źľEgraveȉ1divideampͳ-G

(f) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşmg4 Swiss Wind Energy Association ldquoSuisse Eolerdquo1DGA3-GƷ]bn

ʰƾ3mg4 2008ƀ1˩ɩHampͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ȇ1DGA3-G˺]bn4 FIT˩ʙD7 Swiss Federal Office of Energy3mTHORNouml3sup3Ś1ļ+A3-G Ugrave 7-47-64bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOELJŚ1ɥampmĀ1Gsup3ŚKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-4 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 2 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 6 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 1750 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1790 (2488) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 31 (43) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 7-5 11uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 7 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 30 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 70 NA NA Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 21 NA NA

FXn CHFeuro ndashndashndash 067 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

62

Ugrave 7-6 11uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125 (174) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash Ńuuml NA NA

ɯȐʿTHORNȐʿ-ordfȾ

73 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯ]bn4ʢ 120MWh167oMWhͿ-đɔbDFA 58MWh81oMWhͿ0)G

731 -1plusmnecirc

x 7-2 11uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecircpsup337

(a) BL0+igraveeacuteOgrave bPb-ɯHampouml4đɔbDFA˒Ū00)GH4ͶoumlɯʋƄ-Gamp

-GszligːǨ 1750ǨͿ

ĎȲ37 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringěĴ LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0G

ľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

63

(b) ccedil-1 bPb3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAH4Ņ3^Pn93NZdbİ

˜-GD7laquoacuteamp-GbPb3aRZn4ũˠȕ03-ņˠȕ0aRZ

nȣͶTHORNǨ3otildeƊɞfrac120)G

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig bPb3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAɯƯ-4ɼȧcentȵĪͲ10)F$3ampʰƾʚɡ

]bn0)GbPb-4ʰƾ1Gśʷ4L0

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bPb3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ4 7HGraquoL3a

RZn4yacute3ɡɦ1DFƷ0oumlmiddotʇ˺Goumlmiddotʇ4[ouml3˞3

=F1ƚKŠG

732 s_F(=2E

bPb1GͶoumlɯ3 FIT4 110~130MWh153Έ181oMWhͿ-mĀccedilǿ-4 125MWh174oMWhͿKɥGĔTHORN3DF˳˷ǥ4 721ugrave(e) Kđɔ3|-4$Hsup2ń3yacuteǓǎ`bl40

x 7-3 11uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup338

733 aringmH7B bPb-4ǕʘPdlOz1DF LCOE K)Gx 7-3 EbPb3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaR

Zn-4 FIT1DF LCOEK˚)GJG

ĎȲ38 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

64

73

Ugrave 7-7 11uumljBL0+psup339

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 120

(167) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125

(174) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash5

(ndash7) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

Die Website fuumlr Windenergie-Daten der Schweiz Accessed at wwwwind-datach

Erlaumluternder Bericht zur Revision der Anhaumlnge EnV Bundesamt fuumlr Energie 2102009

Swiss Energy Act of June 26 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_0html

Swiss Energy Ordinance of December 7 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_01html

ĎȲ39 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

65

Aring 8Auml Ecircz

81 Ecirczuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4ʟĴ1GD7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1$3]bn3ɚƙɚ1 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3ŚK˷ǥGȳͶoumlɯ14ʟĴ-4=$3ɯ1Gśʷ ampʞć1˦HG3gtG=ampAring 1 Auml1ʆampđɔbȣamp2008ƀ3ʟĴ3]bnccedilǿʫȁK˷ǥG

811 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

ʟĴ1GʦʏˬOtildeş42000ƀ3ʢ 25 GWE 2008ƀǶ3 25 GW1ŀdivideampx 8-1Ϳ2005ƀsup2ěƀƄ3ƀˬOtildeş4˫Kǭǝʯ2008ƀ14ǝamp1 85 GWdivideHampĎȲ402008ƀ14ǝˠɯşszligiquest3 42KͶoumlɯĈGſĹɱ0ƀ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeş1DFʟĴ3ʱȸouml3ʢ 19ͼKAEligʬ-GHG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)2008ƀ3ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4szlig3ͶoumlɯƯ1GǘOacute-GȳͶoumlɯaRZnA˩ɩHFɠķ4$3˴ėĕƖ

Ƞ1G x 8-1 4ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3Đ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71 2012 ƀ3currenɂD7 2030 ƀ

3ɉķɱ`pUKʆG

x 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

ʟĴ4ǥʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3ɶȔOacuteKˬŚ0ƕ)x 8-1 4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴŞɶȔOacute3degJF3mgɏKʆampA3-GSrYƥĽŬ (EIA) 3ʁǴcurrenɂ1DH52012 ƀ1ǝamp1ʢ 10 GW divideHGampˬOtildeş4 2008ƀDFAGʋƄŀdivideG˟gt-G (EIA 2009)ĎȲ41Ǵcurrenɂ1Gƀ3ʃʐ-

ĎȲ40 ś3IʟĴ-4 2009ƀA3timesğʯFǝamp1divideHampͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4 10 GWƍ10

(AWEA2010)ǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ŅĴȣ3ťHamp 2008ƀ1GA3-G ĎȲ41 Yacute1ampD12009ƀ1ɯHampͶoumlɯ3ˬʹş4 10 GWƍ10 (AWEA 2010)

66

4ɉķɱ0Ͷoumlɯ`pU3ccedilǿ1ļ+2030ƀ=-1ʟĴ-˟=HGouml˞3 20KͶoumlɯ-Ʉamp-GG (DOE 2008)3ʃʐ3LJŚ1DH520Pbn1Gamp14Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 305 GWƛ˞10GD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Ĝ˩Ϳ=amp3ʃʐ-42018ƀ=-1ƀˬOtildeşʢ 16 GW1ŀdivideGLJŚG Ugrave 8-1 4ʟĴ1GĐD7notƔcurrenɂHGʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 8-2 4Đ

D7notƔcurrenɂHGƀŨTHORNşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

25 26 43 47 64 68 92 117 169 255 595 251

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

Ugrave 8-2 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

NA 01 17 04 17 04 24 25 52 86 103 16

ȳ NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

812s_CcedilN3N9A

ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ3ampGĔTHORNɅ4oumlłaumlɣė˃SrYźľ˯ǥ (REC) -Gouml3ʪȽEgraveOacute REC3ł4ĸĻźľ$3reg3Ǽacute1DFaRZnȢ1ɮ0)G ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ4Ǖƃ3ʌiacute3UacuteLjʹ1D)ǓEHG2008 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ

ƴ˗143UacuteLjʹPy˺Ǚɣɤʌͳdž PTCͿ ɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČɥė˃-)amp (Schwabe et al 2009)

PTC4 2004ƀ=-1AgraveƄɄǴ1ampH3ľĜAǭǝHamp2000ƀE 2004ƀ=-1Aɯņ1EumlHamp2004ƀsup24 PTCżǨɥ-GD10)ampamp2005ƀE 2009ƀ1ʟĴ3ƀŨTHORNş4˫ɱ1ŀdivideamp (AWEA 2010) Ǖƃ3Ǖʘȿʌ4$3ť0Gaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗1˞0ʪȽɱEacuteɲKAampEGɠķ

EgraveOacute1ļ+ͶoumlɯaRZn14PTC divideUgraveČ3sect3Eacuteɲ1DFļɆaRZn3ˬʹ]bn3 35KG˟gt-G (Bolinger 2010)ľĜ1D)4PTCdivideUgraveČ3˜Ĝɱ0ʪȽucircȁouml3ł REC3ĔTHORN1ʗ0GG4$HKĮG10G (Harper et al 2007)ĎȲ42

82 Ecircz 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ƿʛ-42008 ƀ3ʟĴ1Gdeg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKGǷĽġǮ3reg3Ĵ3ȣ3ampʟĴ3ſĹɱG4deg˘ɱ0aRZn3ɚƙKsup21˷ǥGraquoȜʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3aR

Zn]bnɚƙ4ĸĻ1D)ɮ0FˬOtildeşAņ

ĎȲ42 H4Ͷoumlɯ3oumlȥǛĸUcirc3 RECEgraveȉ)ampĸĻ1D)ɮ0GǘŅ3˞į1ŷęHG

67

821 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ1G3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ſĹˬOtildeş4 1998Έ1999ƀ3ʢ 35 MWE 2007ƀ3 120 MW

=-F2008ƀ14 83 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ1ˬʹHampͶ3Śȉş4 05 MWǵɄE 3 MW=-F2008ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn-4ſĹ 167 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ3ǰAˊɱ0Ͷ4Śȉaeligouml 15 MWgɷƑ 77 mtz 80 m (GE2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) -G

(b) BL0+Ouml ͶɅ34aRZn1D)ņ1ɮ0)Gszligiquestɱ14ʟĴ-4ɡƦɱ0Ͷȯ10)G

ʟĴ3aRZn3szligːǨ4ʢ 1800Έ4400 ǨŃuumlņ2008 ƀ14şdivideſĹ 3066 ǨˤŤHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ43szligːǨ3LJŚOacute4 2007ƀ1ˬʹH 2008ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+A3-ʟĴszligiquest3ͶɅ3ɉķƟK|b1ampA3-40ɏ1ɫƧ-

G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn4ƀɼś1ŀdivideG2008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZ

n14Ʒ]bn4ǰfrac12ʢ 1000kW1400okWͿE 1800kW2500okWͿƍ=-FşdivideſĹ4 1378kW19195okWͿ-G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ44

Ľġ1DH5Ͷ3ĕƊEgraveȉAƀǤtimesğ1)amp2008 ƀ3˕Ċȗ0E71$H1sup1ǪȥƔ1DG˞frac123Ɛ-Ͷ3EgraveȉD7AEligʬ3frac12ɣ G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009 Bolinger 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ14ijŚŃuuml3ǞĠ=H(E-˘ADş|b3]bn

kWͿ14Igraveɤʌ$3reg3ǟˬ]bnˬOtildeordfnjǔŃouml|b3ĸdegʗĠ=HGʟĴ-eumlɥė˃03ʰƾ3mg4EHG3ampǷĽġǮ1ʆʰƾ4LJŚOacute1

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LJŚOacute1ƀſĹ 50kW70okWͿ3ɤʌ3LJŚǓƱͳĎȲ45divideʙHGɤʌKĠamp

ʰƾʱͳ4Ńuuml-˘5 74MWh103oMWhͿijŚ-4ƀ 226kW314okWͿ-GĎȲ46ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3ʃʐ-42010ƀ=-3ʰƾKʢ 69MWh96oMWhͿBBfrac12˟ʏA)G (DOE 2008)ĎȲ47

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯɯaRZn3˺-4ˇŹ3otildeĜKaRZn|

b3OumlKlteampˇŹ3otildeĜ0)G34114ȞĘɱ1ɣɤʌdžǜʯɱ1˖JHampamp-GOuml1DG˺4ͶoumlɯaRZn3˺ǴKƊ=amp

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7Ǩ14ɢĿ˞ʥKĠͿ3aeligouml3˃ouml13KʰƾGKdzLamp-$3ampSrYŋʢǛ

ĎȲ43 ˬOtildeeumlɥɞ 35ͼ1ļ+ ĎȲ44 ]bn4szlig 2008ƀƄ3D7o-˘ʆ2008ƀ 12DZ 31ǡsup23onjʙ1ɥampɐǯn4 1

139o (Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ45 NREL3atildemg|bELJŚampɤʌǓƱͳ3ſĹ ĎȲ46 2008ƀ3ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71szligːǨTHORNoumlsup3Ś1ļ+ ĎȲ47 ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71 2008ƀƄ3szligːǨTHORNoumlLJŚOacute1ļ+ 2008ƀo1ŃnjampLJŚOacute

68

1ijŚG40)ampE-GʟĴ3Ouml3ư4ż`bl3szligaeligouml1ťSrYŋʢEgraveȉ

Kbrvbarntilde1ȪŚK˞ȨG (Cory and Schwabe 2009)E14 2008ƀƔĄ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ouml1DG˺4Ĵ˕źľ3˕ȴuumlbZĮ3amp˕Ċȗ3ntildeȣ˒İ10

)G (Schwabe et al 2009) mccedilǿ-4 100ͼǷƷKsup3ŚG3˺4 2008 ƀ1ʟĴ1ǃregɱ1-40ʸF

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(f) s_CcedilN3N9A ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3˞0ĔTHORNɅ41ͿǴŋʢG4źľ|b3Egraveȉ1ļ+oumlD

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(g) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3mĀccedilǿ-4==0mgfbKɥampɚ1eumlɥė˃0agraveɱǛKUacuteYacuteamp

1ʆampszlig3mgfb3bnKǷʒ3đʾǚɝ1ʆaRZn3ɚƙaRZn3Ɵ˃

Ʒ]bnʰƾ)ampŃǘ14Wiser and Bolinger 20093ecirc˘1E1˳˷ǥG

822 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

ɠķ=-3IʟĴ-4ĩɥˠȕ3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥAring40ƈˬ3aRZnA

0ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3Ľġ-4= 2012Έ2018ƀ1ĩɥȳͶoumlɯ3ɯaRZnȶȦĻƴ˗KɥǾȷųȫ-ɱ1˖JHG10GǴƒHGđʾ3amp-4currenƦHGȳ

ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKʆampʟĴ-ɥHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn4=œķ0

ampHE3LJŚOacute4 LCOEmccedilǿ1Ġ0

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ3ȳͶ4|b3aRZnDFAņˠȕ0A310FDFˍō0ͶȯKeumlɥamp

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(b) ccedil-1 ȳͶoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4Ńuumlņ2000 ƀdegĄ5E4ğtimesğ1GʟĴȚŵ-NjȊH

GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn13ƀ3˺Ȇ1DH5Ʒ]bn4ʢ 3100 kW

ĎȲ48 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3 43ͼ3aRZnƯDzʿ4GʋƄ3ĩȐbZK10G=amp

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ĎȲ49 2008ƀ3Egraveȉ1Gsup23sup3Ś4Wiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+A3-sup23Fsup3ŚG(1)ǴɱͶoumlɯŋʢEgraveȉoumlRECͿ= 515oMWh(2)čłbjnźľEgraveȉ =5oMWh(3)aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ = 5oMWh

ĎȲ50 3UgraveČ˩ɩ4ƀĄ53ƫAring1ļ+A3-2008ƀ 2009ƀ1eumlɥė˃)amp 50ͼĽŌUgraveČ4ʾƬ0

69

4300 okWͿ-H4notƔǘƀ1ƈˬcurrenŚHGaRZn1GOacute-GĎȲ51H1ť

US Offshore Wind Collaborative-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn4 3300kW4600okWͿ10GcurrenɂG (USOWC 2009)

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn=ɥH0ampʰƾ3currenƦ4˒ʄśƟG

ɯ˘HGmg40ʟĴȚŵ-NjȊHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ1G

ǰ3˟ʏF1DH5ʱ]bn4ʢ 137MWh19oMWhͿ10GĎȲ52

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯ3ɯD7ɥ1bZ˟=HF=ampɯBɥ3ʪA0amp

Ǝeacute3(4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bnaRZnDFA4G10GcurrenƦ

HGȳͶoumlaRZn3˺-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3cedilʭɱ0ƷưȠ0J(Igrave

middotʇͿ-40bZ˭şƄ3ƷưȠ0J(Ȥ3ˇŹǷͿeumlɥHGƝJHGAring5Ȥ

3ˇŹǷƷ1ƛ˞HGeumlɲɞ4ś˯Gƴ˗1 25Έ350GcurrenƦHG (Justice 2010)=ampʟǕƃ4ĩɥD7ǝɱaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗3$Hͳ-0Ouml1DGǷ˺KǓǎ

Gamp3˕OgraveTHORNIgrave˯KNjAEligG(EAȳƴ˗1ɥ-Gė˃ƟAGͿraquoɠ˖Ȱ-4

˕Igrave˯˩ɩ3˺3eumlɥė˃Ɵ0E71ɧ˻ʿ3ȉEHG (DOE 2010) ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɥė˃0|ŵ|3PdlOz4ȳͶoumlɯaRZ

n1Aeumlɥ-Gsup3ŚHGǕƃ3PdlOz14˫3 PTCɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČĠ=HGɚ1ǾȷųȫcopyņɃĸĻ3ŵ4ě3ʚĂ1GȳͶoumlɯaRZnKEuml

Gamp3==0ǞȰKeumlɥHE3aRZnKŨG (USOWC 2009)

(e) Q54Q1 ȳͶoumlɯ3ɚƙ1G˞0mgɅ4ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution

to US Electricity SupplyrdquoĽġǮ (DOE 2008)US Offshore Wind Collaborative3US Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo0E71ʟĴ3ȳͶoumlɯ1Gěʍ3Ľɯ˘ʗ-GraquoǰƔ3A314ȲƧƛ˞-G

Ugrave 8-3 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ53

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ54 ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 165 167 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ͷļǘ ļ 73 50 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ɯĎȲ55 szligːǨ 2891 3066 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1241 (1725) 1378 (1915) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʰƾ ijŚͿĎȲ56 eurokW ($kW) 50 (70) 50 (70) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʰƾ ŃuumlͿĎȲ57

euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (80) 58 (80) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

$3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆWiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ51 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ52 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ53 Yacute1ampD1]bn4szlig 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆ ĎȲ54 3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙ4ntildeʛ1ʆGȳͶoumlɯ4ʟĴ3 LCOEccedilǿ14Ġ0 ĎȲ55 eumlɥɞ 2007ƀ 33ͼ2008ƀ 35ͼsup3ŚG (Wiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) ĎȲ56 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampş|b3ʰƾ4 2007ƀ 2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG ĎȲ57 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampɯouml|b3ʰƾ42007ƀ2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG

70

(f) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 8-38-5 4ș1G LCOE ccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3sup3ŚKʆG]bn3sup3Ś4HA 2007 ƀ

2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1GA3-2008ƀƄ3o-˘GmD7ǞȰ3˳˷ǥ4Aring 1AumlKđɔHamp

Ugrave 8-4 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 100 100 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash WACC ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

Ǵ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ȰlaquoʌɞĎȲ58 ͼ 389 389 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FXnĎȲ59 $US 139 139 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆChadbourne and Parke 2009 Harper et al 2007 Schwabe et al 2009

Ugrave 8-5 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

oumlźľEgraveȉĎȲ60 euroMWh ($MWh) 382 (531) 419 (582) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

źľEgraveȉ˯ǥĎȲ61 euroMWh ($MWh)

˫1 Ġ=HG

˫1 Ġ=HG ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FITǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml |bͿĎȲ62

euroMWh ($MWh) 144 (200) 151 (210) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ 10 10 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 6 6 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆHarper et al 2007 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ58 LJŚHampǕƃŵǕƃ3ʌɞ4$HH 35ͼ 6ͼ-Gɏ1ɫƧ (Harper et al 2007)ŵʌ4ĔTHORNEdž

HGamp˜Ĝśucircʌɞ4 389ͼ-G ĎȲ59 szlig3]bn4 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆGamp2007ƀA 2008ƀA 2008ƀǶ3ɐǯnKɥamp

(Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ60 2007ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3EgraveȉˬŚ1Gsup3ŚAWiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+˥amp ĎȲ61 aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3LJŚͳKouml3źľEgraveȉ3˩ʙ1ĠG ĎȲ62 PTCnjʙOacute4 13frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORN

71

823 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯTHORNoumlvgKɥ2007 ƀ 2008 ƀ3 LCOE K˩ʙamp2008 ƀ3ʟĴ LCOE2008

ƀ3ʟĴ3sup3ŚKszligAumlɥͿKđɔb2008 ƀ3đɔb3szligsup3ŚKAumlɥͿȣamp$3ʫȁ4sup23F-G Ĵecirc3ěTHORNoumlŃǘKě3đɔb3sup3ŚEʟĴ3sup3Ś9ŀccedilɱ1degTHORNđɔbʟĴ3 LCOE

3Ÿɮ93ěŃǘ3ƐKLJŚ-GD1ampʟĴ3 LCOE 4 3 MWh4 oMWhͿ-đɔb3 LCOEDFAfrac12x 8-2đɔͿ

x 8-2 EcirczrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup363

(b) BL0+dj ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4ſĹˍō0Ͷȯ3ơƣKĖG-G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ|b3

aRZn-4ſĹ 3066 Ǩ3szligːǨǴƒHGđɔb-4 2628 ǨͿʟĴ-4aRZn3aeligouml0G LCOEđɔbDFAʢ 8MWh11oMWhͿfrac120G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAʢ 72 kW100o kWͿfrac120)G

2008ƀ3ſĹƷ]bn4đɔb 1449kW2029okWͿ-G31ťʟĴ-4 1378kW19195okWͿ-GǑĐ]bnͶoumlɯˬOtilde3ǑĐ]bnaRZn^Pn3ƘUcirc]bnĠ=HGͿ4szliggt3Ʒ]bn1Ġ=HGsup3ŚHGƕ)ʟĴ-4Ʒ]bnfrac12

G1HLCOEđɔbDFAʢ 2MWh3oMWhͿfrac120G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3˺]bn4ˇŹǷ|amp2008ƀ4 100ͼͿ=ampđɔb-4

Ouml1DG˺KɥGampđɔbDFA0)G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯaRZn3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ75ͼͿ4đɔb3Oumleumlɲɞ55ͼͿDFA 200|`bPn0)G ʟĴ-4ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 2007 ƀE 2008 ƀ1ŀdivideampH4ǕĊȗ1DFƕǽ3ǷƷŞ

ĎȲ63 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

72

KŊ)ampamp-G (Schwabe et al 2009)H4=ampư0Egraveȉ3frac34Ŗ)ampreg3ʊʌdžƷAĝȓ3ơƣKƖEHGD1GʟĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY3ʌdžǕʘ3Ɵ1DGA3-3Ǖʘ1DF 2007ƀ1ʢ 6ͼ3eumlɲNjAEligHHȇƉƷeumlɲɞ3KŚG10)amp (Chadbourne and Parke 2007)ʟĴ3˺]bn0GʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 8MWh11oMWhͿ0G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAfrac120)Gʰƾ4ijŚG4Ńuuml-˘-

G3ampđɔb3ȣ-4ŃuumlǼacute-˘ampnjʙćǛ3LJŚOacuteampʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJ

Śʱͳ4 7MWh10oMWhͿđɔb3 13MWh18oMWhͿK4G1Į)ampraquoĽġ1DH5ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯɤȐ4ʰƾʚɡ]bn3˟ʏF1G˞˹Ͳ1ɠķAɷFĽ

ġHampmg4Ǩřszlig-Gamp3LJŚOacute4ƪ1˥Gƛ˞G =ampʰƾ4aRZn3ˠȕũ0G1Hfrac12G˯ƻAG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

HAʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJŚͳđɔbȣfrac120)G3į-GʟĴ3aR

Zn3ˠȕ4đɔbDFAņampͿ=ampʟĴ3ʰƾ4ǝˠaRZn14=DzucircIgrave

˯Ǵatilde-Gamp1ʵĥHGė˃ƟGʟĴ3ʰƾfrac120GʟĴ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFAʢ 6MWh8oMWhͿfrac120G

(f) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4Ƿ]bn˺]bnG4szliggt3ʰƾ1Ġ=HGƦŚHGamp

ʟĴ3ccedilǿ-4ecircmĀ0reg3]bn14ʡʭɥʿ1DGfrac12ĶPob (LVRT) ˞acuteG4ɑucircouml]bnʗGN`^wbǛ4ż4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɷDž˹

HG40

(g) uumljfrac14divideWocirceumlCcediloslash Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ]bn4đɔbDFA0)GHE3Ǖʘ1

41ͿȰlaquoʌɞ2ͿȰlaquo˹ʌƯƖE3eumlőǓƱdžĠ=HGʟĴ3DzucircȰlaquoʌɞ389Ϳ4đɔb30ͿDFA$3amp LCOE0)GE1Ƿ1DG 100˺K˟L-GampʟĴ3 LCOE ˹ʌƯƖ3eumlőǓƱdž1D)ȿͳHG40ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFAʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ0)G

824 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj3˩ʙ1DFʟĴ3ĔTHORNŃǘouml RECͿ3OacuteKͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘȣGyacuteYj4=ĔTHORNǕʘAͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘKĠ

1˩ʙș1ĔTHORNŃǘ3gtKĠauml˩ʙGǰƔ1auml7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘKĠ˩

ʙG3ŀccedilsup3Ś1DFͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘ1ťGĔTHORN3ɸťɱEgraveOacuteKǥE1amp x 8-34ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘĔTHORN3ŃǘKȣHE 23D1ʟĴ3 LCOE

KȒƭGKʆampA3-G2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3 LCOEʢ 41MWh57oMWhͿ4ĔTHORNɅouml REC3łͿ-JHGʢ 24MWh33oMWhͿ4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHGPTCUgraveČ˩ɩ3divideͿotildeĜ-˘0EʟĴ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 24ĔTHORN-ȟF3 3ccedil3 14ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHG

73

x 8-3 Ecirczs_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup364

825 aringmH7B

ʟĴ3mĀccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash1 MWhndash1 oMWhͿ-G3EʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4aRZnɯ1ƛ˞HGyacute˞acuteKɄamp31ăccedil0Xj`

yKĔTHORND7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOzȉGľĜͿEƖG10G34

PTCżǨDzucirc-)amp 2005Έ2009ƀ3ƀͶoumlˬOtildeş3ʯɱ˫EAǥE-GH41ƀŨTHORNş4 PCT]bnɑucirc10)ampǨ1˒ȿŪG (AWEA2009)ĎȲ65

83 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+

ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ƀƞ1ƼņGH4Ͷȯż1ˍō-]bnȣɱfrac12ĔTHORN

Ʌăccedil1F=ampľĜ1D)4Dzɲ0ǕʘPdlOzKeumlɥ-GE-GʟĴ1Gɠķ=

-3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn4HA-śǟHampʟĴeacute0GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯ

EHGʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bn4ˊ1đɔbDFAfrac12H4SrYaeligouml

ņǷ]bnʰƾfrac121DGͶoumlɯ1GǕƃ3ǕʘPdlOzȜ

Ɖ1˴ŚHamp-Ĵatilde3Ņ3szlig-401AͿ3ɯaRZnEumlHG10)amp

E-GĔTHORNǕʘ3PdlOz3ɸiexclucircȁ1DFͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ3yacuteYj4lte10

)G

Ugrave 8-6 EcirczIumlsectpsup366

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

58 (81)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

60 (83)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

ndash1 (ndash1) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ĎȲ64 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ65 x 8-1đɔ ĎȲ66 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

74

rOtildemiddot

AWEA (2010) ldquoUS Wind Energy Industry Breaks All Records Installs Nearly 10000 MW in 2009 Manufacturing

Investment Jobs Still Lagrdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) news release January 26 2010 at httpwwwaweaorgnewsroomreleases01-26- 10_AWEA_Q4_and_Year-End_Report_Releasehtml

AWEA (2009) ldquoAmerican Wind Energy Association Annual Wind Industry Report Year Ending 2008rdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) at httpwwwaweaorgpublicationsreportsAWEA-Annual-Wind-Report-2009pdf

Bolinger M (2010) ldquoRevealing the Hidden Value that the Federal Investment Tax Credit and Treasury Cash Grant Provide to Community Wind Projectsrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL-2909E January 2010 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreportslbnl-2909epdf

Capewind (2010) ldquoCape Wind Signs Agreement to Buy Siemens 36-MW Offshore Wind Turbinesrdquo Cape Wind (Capewind) news release March 31 2010 at httpwwwcapewindorgnews1086htm

Chadbourne and Parke (2009) ldquoTrends in Tax Equity for Renewable Energyrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke January 2009 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication810dde60-3c78-4a9a-9c5d- a5fae8014b4fPresentationPublicationAttachment51fc06c5-1407-48ac-9dff- a605de0f58e1pfn0109pdf

Chadbourne and Parke (2007) ldquoThe Tax Equity Marketrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke April 2007 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication572b04b4- 905e-48e1-8f6b-0f520c4f2615PresentationPublicationAttachment573bdc6c-ff85-4f99-b4d0- 25a845907bccpfn0407pdf

Cory K Schwabe P (2009) ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financing Input Variablesrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL TP-6A2-46671 October 2009 at httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

DOE (2010) ldquoGeneral Loan Guarantee Program Frequently Asked Questionsrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) accessed April 2010 at httpwwwlgprogramenergygovfaq2htm

DOE (2008) ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution to US Electricity Supplyrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2008 at httpwww20percentwindorg

EIA (2009) ldquoAnnual Energy Outlook 2010 Early Release with Projections to 2030rdquo US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration (EIA) website accessed February 2010 at httpwwweiadoegovoiafaeoexcelaeotab_16xls

102Federal Reserve (2010) ldquoHistorical Rates for Euro Areardquo Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System website accessed February 2010 at httpwwwfederalreservegovreleasesh10histdat00_euhtm

GE (2010) ldquo15 MW Wind Turbine Technical Specificationsrdquo GE Energy (GE) website accessed April 2010 at httpwwwgepowercomprod_servproductswind_turbinesen15mwspecshtm

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review amp Comparative Analysisrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports63434pdf

Justice S (2009) ldquoPrivate Financing of Renewable Energy ndash A Guide for Policymakers UNEP Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative Bloomberg New Energy Finance Chatham House December 2009 at httpwwwchathamhouseorgukfiles15542_1209_financeguidepdf

Schwabe P Cory K Newcomb J (2009) ldquoRenewable Energy Project Financing Impacts of the Financial Crisis and Federal Legislationrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory technical report NRELTP-6A2-44930 July 2009 at

75

httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti44930pdf

USOWC (2009) ldquoUS Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo US Offshore Wind Collaborative (USOWC) October 2009 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreports63434pdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2009) ldquo2008 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2009 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports2008-wind-technologiespdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2008) ldquoAnnual Report on US Wind Power Installation Cost and Performance Trends 2007rdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy May 2008 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs43025pdf

76

Uograve AĂsup1agraveUumlaacute

shyocircMQ+Q

BL0+para

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

aRZn3gPn Project title

aRZnĞregĴ3QOo

yMȣGamp AringΆoPk3đɔQOoyM13

aRZn3ʍ͵ Project type

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ʍ͵ A4ȳ

Ͷļǘ Number of wind turbines

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

Ͷʱǘ$EěĴ3ɡ˼

3ſĹɱQOoyMͿ

ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

Śȉaeligouml Rated power

Ͷ 1ļ3Śȉaeligouml ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

gɷƑ Rotor diameter

Ͷ3gɷƑ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

ĖͶʏ Swept area

gͶKĖGszligʏ m2-˘˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

tz Hub height

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ƚĸɏ3ſĹ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽraquotz

3ſĹͶƀɯouml4ɷDž

EcircGͿ tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ

Lond term average wind speed at hub height

tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

Ȝģɯouml Net electricity production

QOoyM3ƀſĹȜ

ģɯouml szligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

ƺʌouml Tax capability

iacute΄ɑiacute ćɜ3aRZn3ľĜ

4ʌiacuteUacuteʘKszligeumlɥ-GͿG4

ˣmiddotʇKƾ3ľĜ4ˣmiddotʇ

Ǝ˲ƀƄ3ʌdžKszligDzucirc1eumlɥ-

GͿ4_Ƹ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4

Ĵʌ΄ʌ3gt1ɥHGŵʌBĸ

Ǟʌ4ńͿ Currency

szlig]bnĔTHORNPdlOz

ʗ3 2007ǫƀ 2008ǫƀ3$HHdeg˘ɱ0ǡ $HH 2007ƀ 12DZ 3ǡ 2008ƀ12DZ 31ǡͿ3ȣ1ļ+1ˬŚ

ijŚƀ]bnćfrac14 Fixed annual costs unit

ijŚʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kW

Ńuumlƀ]bnćfrac14 Variable annual costs unit

ƀʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kWh

ccedil-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ͷ Wind turbine

ͶD7ɯ˙ʹ3Yacute˖Ʒ

]bn ggtzgĖ

oPznPKƿʆGPy

YN~jZb`blxj

i`blzX`blpdt

77

Qa[ɯȗgzoͶ

ɥŃĶĬraraquoļʅG4ʡʭDž

ʯ4Ġ=reg-ƲͿ Ͷ3 Wind turbine transportation

ͶK˛ŶľEaRZ

nɯ^Pn1$1ˬ

ʹ-GD1Gamp3]b

n

Ͷ3aRZn^Pn93Křpound

Gamp1ɥEHG΄n

jZ]bnD7Z3]bnK

Ġ Ͷ3ˬʹ Wind turbine installation

aRZnƈˬǴ3Ͷ

3ˬʹ]bn ƈˬ3Z3]bnKĠ

ũ˩ΆͶ3]bn Sub-total wind turbine cost

Ͷ 3ļsup23]bn3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ļʅ Foundations

QOoyM1ƛ˞0ļʅ

3ʱ]bn ]Zn$3regQOoyM

3ěͶKǓG31ƛ˞0ȒǓȅK

Ġ Ȓatildeʡʭ Internal grid

QOoyM3ŃƯ93

Džʯ1ƛ˞0QOoyM

atilde3ȥʡʭ

QOoyMatilde3szlig3ʳQO

oyM3ŃƯ=-D7ŃƯ

3ʳKĠͿŃƯ1ʡɏDF

ntilde1ʡʭʡŃĶĬGľĜ4$3Ń

ĶĬ=-3szlig3ʳKĠ1șiacuteƗɯ`blKuziacuteƗGamp1ˬʹ

HampiacuteƗ˙ʹͿ3]bnKĠƯDzʿ

D7Ͷ˛brvbarȐʿ1ǖB˿ġKcedilamp

FͶKǒAcirc1DFuumlD7Ocirc

țampFɥʭ˩OacuteKƵǍGamp3

ɴˡiacuteƗ`bl (SCADA)G4QOoyMɴˡ`bl3ˬʹKĠ

ʡʭʡ[jo]o3

Ɇƻ Grid connection grid code compliance

QOoyM3ʡʭʡ1

ƛ˞0ŃĶĬǠœ3oumlʡʭ

-ƛ˞HGȥʡʭ

QOoyMEʡʭ=-3ʳ

0[jo]oɆƻ3amp1ȨE

HGegrave3divideɱ˙ʹĠ=HGQO

oyMʡʭʡŃĶĬKĠ˜ǘ3

ŃƯKDzGľĜʡʭʡŃĶĬ

ʡʭ3ʳ3gtKĠ ʡʭŀƍ Grid reinforcement

˄Ƌ0ʡʭ-4QOoyM

3ʡ3ampʡʭ3reg3ccedil

3ĶʤKG1DF

ʡʭKŀƍGė˃ƟG

Ǡœ3ʡʭ3ŀƍ1ƛ˞0˙ʹ

ŀƍdivideɱiacuteƗ$3reg3macrdivideɱ˙ʹKĠ

Ϳ

ŃƯ Substations and transformer station

ʡʭʡŃĶĬˇiquestD7$H

=-3ĂKĠampQOoy

M3ʡʭatilde1Gszlig3

ŃƯ3]bn

ʡʭ93ʡĸɏ=-ǜĬD7ǜ

ĬKĠŃĶĬ4ĶKǤĶGȥ

ȗĬ-GL3Ͷ4aeligoumlKʡ

ʭĶ1ǤĶGŃĶĬKDzG ũ˩Άȥʡʭ Sub-total electrical netgrid

ȥʡʭ1G˫ 4 ɶ3ũ˩

˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ˴˯ Certification

ʡʭʡG1amp)QO

oyMK˴˯Gamp3]

bn

˴˯Hampˬ˩IJ3]bnD7QOo

yM3ś3ƈˬK3ˬ˩IJȣ

G]bnKĠ ɢĿ˺Ȇ Environmental survey

QOoyM3ɯȠ-

ƛ˞10GɢĿ˺Ȇ3ʱͳH

4ěĴ3ɢĿƐ˰EgraveǮ3acirciquest

ɱ0˞acute1˟G-G

ȩȃ3ė˃ƟɊɇograveʗͿ ͷ|3LJŚ Ǫˤ93ˡˢɱƐ ɣɣəD7ɣƩʡ93ƈˬD7 3Ɛ ɚŚ3ͻ˓˔3ɴˡ `oQyjV3Oslash

Pysup2ń3ɯ]bn

3ũ˩ Non-infrastructure development subtotal

˫3Pysup2ń3aR

Znɯ3˫ 2ɶ3ʱ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

78

ʰƾˬOtilde OampM facilities

ʰƾȐyacute3˖1ƛ˞0

D7ǟˬKǝamp1ƈˬG

]bn

Ͷ3ƈˬ14aRZn3ˀ

ɥƀǘ3ʰƾgzo3

ɏȏ]bnD7ņĺĦ3ordfnj]bn $3reg Miscellaneous

˫3aRZnɯ]bn

1Ġ=H0$3regegrave3

]bn

3ĵĸƯDzʿ93˚Ugrave

ntilde3eumlőǓƱ Interest payment before operation

aRZnŐntilde1ǓƱ

ƛ˞10Geumlő3ʱͳ ż4ƈˬȠ3OumlD7Ͷ3Ͱ

ǓƱ3amp33Ńǘ4 1Έ2ƀatilde3yacuteŃǘ-G3Xj`y

mŐHGɥeacuteƀƄ1

4ntilde-ǓƱ]bnG reg3aRZnɯ]b

n3ũ˩ Sub-total other project development costs

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫frac14ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0

ľĜʱͳ-˘

aRZnƷ]bn3

ʱͳ Total project investment costs

˫ɯɶũ˩3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

q-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǑĐbZjEgraveͳK

Ϳ Decommisioning excl scrap value

ļʅKĠQOoyMK

ĵĸEǑĐG31˞G]

bn

QOoyMD7egrave3Py

ZʗͿ3˥iquestǑĐə

$3regegrave3ƛ˞0Ǖƃ˯ǥǮ3Acircƭ]b

n ĵĸ3ˇɓɛƩ93ĮƘ Returning the land to the natural state

ĵĸ3ɠɛĮƘ3amp3]bn aRZnřpoundamp1ɯɣ

bZjEgraveͳ Scrap value

ǑĐǨ3bZjǺǛ3łČ

EgraveOacute ʳʗaumleumlɥG4bZj

łČ-Gė˃Ɵ3GQOoyM

3ǺǛ ȜģǑĐ]bn Net decommissioning costs

˫ɶ3ʱͳ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

BL0+igraveeacute Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǨszligːǨmO

nKͿ Operational time full load hours excluding derate

szligːǨ4QOoyM

3ſĹƀɯoumlK$3

Śȉaeligouml-ampOacute-G

H4szligːǨ3Ĝ˩-F˩ɩɱ

D7˩ɩń3ʰƾʚɡ3amp3OcircțǨK

ĠszligːǨŅŚamp^P

n1GQOoyM3ɯouml

AŀdivideG szligːǨ3mOn Derate of full load hours

QOoyMʎOslash

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3ǏŊKĠ ȜģǨȜģszligːǨ

Net operational timefull load hours

ǨszligːǨEmO

nKƊampǨ ȜģǨ3Ĝ˩KĠG0J(m

OnKĠGͿ

ˀɥƀǘ Economic life

ƦŚHGaRZn3ˀɥ

ƀǘ3ǴaRZn]

bn3ʱͳKĮĔ0H50

E0Ϳ

AringaRZnKʮʯɥG-

ƦŚHampˀɥƀǘsup21ăccedilʎOslash-

GɛƩ1)ampAaRZn

3ȟœˀɥƀǘ4egraveĠ0 ]bn˩ʙ3amp3˩ɩť

Ǵ Time horizon for cost

LCOE˩ʙ3ť0GǴ _OacuteKTHORNouml0ľĜ4myTn

ˬŚ1DFˀɥƀǘ1ˬŚG

79

calculations

aringm Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ǵ Loan duration

ȽǴ3Ĝ˩ ͰD7eumlőǓƱKĠ

― źľeuml Loan - market interest rate

euml3Oacute43ư1D)

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fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml3ƖEHG Oumleumlɲɞ Return on debt

Ǵ1ȢƀƖEHG

euml ȢƀƖEHGeuml

ƛ˞HGǷeumlɲɞź

ľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivideʙ

KͿ Required return on equity excl market volatility risk adder

QOoyM3ǷƷŞ

ȨGeumlɲɞ Ƿ1Geumlɲ3otildeĜ

źľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivide

ʙ Market volatility risk adder

ʕyenɱźľ1đdivideǷeumlɲɞ

KGdividebZKƵǍG

KɶɱampA3

źľ1GcurrenƦń3ŃuumlbZKʾƬ

Gamp1divideʙGotildeĜ

ƛ˞HGƷǷ3Ȝ

ģeumlɲɞ Net required return on investment equity

ɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZ

nƷŞ93ǷeumlɲɞǷƷ

ŞȨGźľŃuumlƟ3b

ZKĠͿ

Ƿeumlɲɞźľ3ŃuumlƟKʾƬG

ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKƵǍGamp mZ-ɥė ˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ƿ3otildeĜĸUcircǷ3ƯDz

ȖKͿ Equity share excl local equity ownership

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp1ƻaeligGǷ3otilde

Ĝ

ͶǓƾ˙ʹPyʚɡ˺

ʗ3]bnKamp1ƷGǷ3

ʱͳ

Ƿ3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Total equity share

ĸUcirc3Ƿ3ƯDzȖ0E71ʱ

Ʒ]bn ˺]bnK

amp1ƻaeligGǷ3otildeĜ3

Ĝ˩

ĸUcircD7ĸUcircsup2ń3ƷŞNjAEligamp

Ƿ3ʱͳ

Ouml3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Debt share

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp3Ouml3otildeĜ THORNoumlGǷ3otildeĜ1ļ+˩ʙOacute

aRZn3ʱ]bn 100EǷ3otildeĜKƊampOacuteͿ

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate- municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠǘOacute

4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ȝģʌɞ Net tax rate

ǕƃĸǞŵǕƃ3Ȱlaquoʌ

ɞ3Ĝ˩ -˘ʆǕƃźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

80

shy MQ+Q

oacute-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

˛ȐʿNjAEligGʰƾʚ

ɡ]bn Manufacturer-provided maintenance

eacuteƀƄG4$3Ɣ1divide]

bn0-˛ȐʿNjAEligG

ʰƾʚɡ]bn

3]bn4żQOoyM3ˬʹ

]bn1Ġ=HGampeacuteǴ4e1

0G4-G

atildebgjy1DG˩ɩɱ

ʰƾʚɡ]bn Scheduled maintenance by internal staff

aRZnƯDzʿ3bgjy

1DGŚǴɱ0QOoyM

3ʰƾʚɡ]bn

bgjy1DGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

ń^wbŋʢ External service contracts

reg3˻Ȑʿ1DGŚǴɱ0Q

OoyM3ʰƾʚɡ]b

n

˻brvbarȐʿDGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

]bn Operation costs

QOoyM3ɥ1ƛ˞

0ƀ]bn SCADA KĠQOoyM3ƴ˗ɱɥ3amp3]bn-ʚɡ]bn-40

H14ecirc˷ǥͿǘOacuteȥcurren

ɂ3]bnKĠ ɏȏ Inspections

Ͷɏȏ3amp˻ȐʿK

ˇʇ-A˫3^wb˻

Ȑʿ-A0ľĜͿ

gzo3Ľġ2~4ƀȢͿĦ3ƴ˗ɏȏͶ 1 ļampF 2 ƀȢ1 1 ǡͿKĠɏȏ3ǨȂ4kW |b

-ˬŚ ˩ɩń3Icircɡ Unscheduled repairs

˩ɩń3Icircɡʰƾʚɡ ˙ʹ3ǖŇȥɛȯ$3reg3ńį1DG

ʰƾijŚͿũ˩ OampM costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ OampM costs variable subtotal

˫3Ńuumlʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝͳ-˘ ʚɡ Administration

QOoyM3ʚɡ

D7ɴɽ3]bn ʬƈəˇuumlD7ɗǛͿʗKĠ

Igrave Insurance

QOoyM$33

bZD7$3Ɛ1OtildeG

amp1ǓƱƀIgraveǛ

uumlɤIgraveǏŝUgraveuacuteɍ˚UgraveD7ɢĿ

)ampQOoyM1ɷDžEcirc

Gegrave3Igrave

ʡʭǛ Grid charges

ʡʭ93ʡ0E71ɥKǓ

ǎG31ƛ˞HGƀǛ

_4HKş|b3]bn

G4SrY]bnTHORNouml

G-G ʡʭ3]bnijŚͿ Grid costs fixed

˫3ʡʭǛ

ʡʭ3]bnŃuumlŃuumlͿ Grid costs variable

˫3ʬ˺ʛ]bn

^Pn3 Site lease

QOoyMKˬʹampĵ

ĸ3ƯDzʿ1ǓƱʱͳ Ͷ 1 ļ1macrǓƱľĜAʱͳ-ǓƱľĜAʱ]bn-THORNouml

G ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

aRZnşƀ

kWͿ1ļ+aRZnǓƱƀʌͳ

ͼ|b3ʌ4˫3Z`n-ƀ

șŃuuml30ŃǘTHORNoumlG

1ȲƧ-4ş|b3ʌKʆ

$3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG ȸouml Electricity consumption

ouml3ˇŹȸ ʡʭ3ĝǴD7ɯƯ3uumlʗ3amp

_4HEKş|bG4

SrY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ɢĿɂŚ˰Egraveʗ Environmental measurements evaluations etc

QOoyM3˴ė0E7

1KʰƾG31ƛ˞0ƀ

ɢĿɂŚ˰Egrave

_4HEKş|bG4Sr

Y]bnTHORNoumlG-

G

81

reg3ƀ]bnijŚͿũ

˩ Other annual costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚɢĿɂŚǛ

ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ Other annual costs variable subtotal

˫3oumlȸ]bn

ƀ]bnijŚͿ Annual costs fixed

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ƀ]bnŃuumlͿ Annual costs variable

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘

Ts_-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ƀźľđdivide]bn Annal market participation fee

ʕyenɱoumlźľ1đdivideGamp

3ƀ]bn źľɥʿʡʭɥʿ1ǓƱ

ʬ˺Ǚ]bn Balancing costs

ͶoumlɯKěǨ1oumlʡ

ʭ1DžʯGamp3]bnʱͳ

aeligoumlcurrenɂ1Gś3ŀccedil]

bn

kW]bn4ȜƉ0ʬ˺ǙźľKG43]bnouml3źľ

Egraveȉ1Ġ=HGampccedilG3İ

0ľĜAG_4HE3]bn

Kş|b3]bnG4S

rY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ŋʢ]bnĕƊǛʗͿ Contract costs (transaction fees etc)

ŋʢ3ʰƾ1ƛ˞0ƀǓƱͳ kWh-˘ĕƊǛ

reg3]bn3ʱͳ Subtotal other costs

źľđdivide]bnʬ˺Ǚ]b

nŋʢ]bn3Ĝ˩

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKşǦ1GĽ

Ō kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƟʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źľoumlEgraveȉ Market price electricity

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

ƀſĹźľoumlEgraveȉ kWh

źľ˯ǮEgraveȉ Market price certificates

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ3

ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kWhǕʘ1DFG4źľ|b-ˬŚHGľĜGǘOacute4ecirc

THORNoumlG FITĔTHORN Feed-in tariff revenue

FIT1DGĔTHORN ż4aR

Zn]bn3ǓƱ3amp3ŀ

ccedilǓƱŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞK

ʄIgraveG31Auml ouml3źľEgrave

ȉKĠľĜAG

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐKŐampƀƄ1

ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlHG

reg3ĔTHORN3ʱͳ Subtotal other revenues

˫3reg3ĔTHORN3Ĝ˩

Ccedil ― shyocircocirc

shyocirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ʌƊntildedž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as a before-tax credit

ʌƊntilde

3ʌdž1ťGntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊntilde

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGʌ|b3ntildeƱ˚

ugrave3otildeĜHĝ otildeĜaRZ

n3ʱͳoͿG4ˬOtildeşampF

3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ

82

|b3PdlOz4aRZn1

DGʌƊntilde1ɥHGƕ)aR

Zn1ťEgraveOacuteaRZn3eacute

ƀ3˹ʌͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3

ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜaRZnG

G4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3

ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ

4_Ƹ-Gʌdž4Ĵ

ʌ13gtɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ

|-40Ϳ ʌƊƔdž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave AringΆUgraveČͿ Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as an after-tax deduction (eg depreciation)

ʌƊƔ

3ʌdž1ļ+ntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊƔ

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGYacute˖ʌdžH

ĝ otildeĜaRZn3ʱͳoͿ

G4ˬOtildeşampF3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ|b3Pdl

Oz4aRZn1DGʌƊƔ1ɥ

HG3ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜa

RZnGG4aRZn

ƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-G

ˣmiddotʇKƾ4_Ƹ-G

ʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥHGƕ

)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront cash investment subsidy

aRZnszligiquest1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ aRZnƷ]bnʱͳ1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml-3Ƚė˃ ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKǁGamp mZ-ɥė˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

shyl Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

kW-ʆHGƀʌͳ ȢƀǓƱD7ƀșŃuumlGş

|b3ʌͳ FITĔTHORNAringΆɯouml|b3PdlOzͿ Feed-in tariff revenue (eg production based incentives)

FIT G4ɯouml|b3PdlOz1DGĔTHORN

ż4aRZn3]bnK

31˞ȨHGŀccedilǓƱ1

ŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞKdivideampOacute

ouml3źľEgraveȉKdivideGľĜA

G

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐɱɥKŐampƀƄ

1ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǨCcedilœǛiacuteƄKɥ

GĴoPkʗͿ4ƀ3ǘOacuteAring

$HƀK Ś0

AͿKTHORNoumlG FITǕʘǴ Feed-in tariff policy period

FIT G4ɯ˚ugraveǓƱJHGʱǨ

aRZn1ƦŚHGʪȽɱƕŎǴ

K0ʜı3Ǵɮ0H5 FIT3ǓƱ|Aɮ0)Gė˃Ɵ

83

GFIT ǕʘǴ3Ĝ˩OacuteK1THORNoumlG

ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž Production-based before-tax credits

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b30J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊntilde

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊntilde|

b-aRZn1ɥH

G

aRZn3ʌǓƱntilde1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGɯouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿƕ)aRZn1ťEgraveOacuteņaRZneacuteƀ3˹ʌ

ͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteK

ĖGćɜaRZnGG

4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDz

ucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gt

ɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40

Ϳ ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž3ǕʘǴ Production-based before-tax credit policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHGǴ

3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɯ|b3ʌƊƔdž Production-based after- tax deductions

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b0J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊƔ

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊƔ|

b-aRZn1ɥHG

aRZn3ʌǓƱƔ1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKĖGćɜaRZnGG4

aRZnƯDzʿĝƀƄ3ʌdžKDzucirc

1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥ

HGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ɣɤļɵ3džʌƊƔͿ

ǕʘǴ Production-based after- tax deductions policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHG

Ǵ3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power bonus

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKEumlGamp

3ĽŌ kWh

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƄʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWh

źľEgraveȉ˯Ǯ Market price certificates

źľG4Ǖƃ3Ǖʘ1D)

ˬŚHampQOoyM

3aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ

3ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kW_4ɮ0Gźľ-0J(ěʍ3źľEgraveȉ-Ϳłamp3˯

Ǯ3ȼĜdivideſĹźľEgraveȉKTHORNoumlG

divideUgraveČ Accelerated Depreciation

OtildeĦ3ͳK˺middot˩D

7ʌťʘUgraveČG˩ɩ ěƀƄ3UgraveČͳ4ɤ3ˀɥƀǘ3eacuteǴD

FBBƀ|b-eacuteǴƷʱͳ

3ͼˬŚG UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

3m-4_aRZn3

EgraveOacuteKUgraveČGƀƄ$3UgraveČɞKŚʻ

GșƀƄsup2ȢƀȟͳKUgraveČGǞȰK

ɥGĴ-4_UgraveČ˩ɩEgrave

ͳKdegɡȖ˖Auml1D)˟ʏG

dj

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

yacuteYj Financial gap

aRZn3˺1ƛ˞

HGyacuteYj ʱ]bn˺]bnͿEƛ˞

HGǷeumlɲɞ93Ʒ1ƛ˞0ĔTHORN

PdlOzKƊampOacute ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave Levelized electricity generation cost

QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘ

1QOoyM-ɣɤH

amp kWh3ɠķ3ǡſĹ]bn

szlig3]bnKĠƷaumlƷ

ʰƾͿĔTHORNPdlOz˺]

bnĹʗĀĎEgrave4otildeƊɞͶ3ˀɥƀ

ǘKɥ˩ʙ

• 表紙13
• 要旨13
• 目次13
• 第1章 7ヶ国の風力発電の財務コスト13
• 第2章 デンマーク13
• 第3章 ドイツ13
• 第4章 オランダ13
• 第5章 スペイン13
• 第6章 スウェーデン13
• 第7章 スイス13
• 第8章 米国13
• 付録A 変数および用語解説13

ix

5

ƀ ES-1 ƶrƽŊƻfrac14 LCOEǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-1 ƽŊƻ^lJEUƖĚdivideƖGKUƃū ƀ 1-2 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻoumlſŋ[hbpNǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-3 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻƔ[hbpNǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-4 shyfrac14133+sectĺFpKƶrƽŊƻ LCOE FGǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 1-5 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEUoumlſŋ[hbpN ƀ 1-6 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEUƔ[hbpN ƀ 1-7 ĴrƽŊƻ^lJEU LCOE133+ FG ƀ 1-8 aacuteŀ LCOEĊIJĮƛ ƀ 2-1 Tm`pEƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (MW) ƀ 2-2 Tm`pEƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW) ƀ 2-3 ƓżĐưampiquest FIT9deg06Z]ƿlpNŏatildeŊƻħETHƬʼn6 4ƽƙŐNtildeŋ

ƀ 2-4 ƓżĐưampiquest FIT9deg0Z]ƿlpNŏatildeŊƻħETHƬʼn6 4ƽƙŐNtildeŋ ƀ 2-5 Tm`pEƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 2-6 Tm`pEƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 2-7 Tm`pEƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt] ƀ 2-8 2007THORN 2008THORNTm`pEamp136ƽŊƻ LCOE0 ƀ 3-1 V=RŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-2 V=RTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 3-3 V=RƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 3-4 V=RƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 3-5 V=RƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 3-6 V=RűĞ0 ƀ 4-1 AhmOŬŜƊETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-2 AhmOĪsup2THORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW) ƀ 4-3 AhmOƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 4-4 AhmOƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 4-5 AhmOƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt] ƀ 4-6 AhmOűĞ0 ƀ 5-1 K_=mŬŜƊŵƬ (GW) ƀ 5-2 K_=mTHORNưOgraveƬ (GW) ƀ 5-3 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 5-4 K_=mƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 5-5 K_=mƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]ǀ2008THORNǁ ƀ 5-6 K_=mƽŊƻ^lJEU0 ƀ 6-1 KgtpTmŬŜƊETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-2 KgtpTmTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW) ƀ 6-3 Lillgrunden^lJEU ƀ 6-4 KgtpTmƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil ƀ 6-5 KgtpTmƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ ƀ 6-6 KgtpTmƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

x

ƀ 6-7 KgtpTműĞ0

ƀ 7-1 K=KŬŜƊETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-2 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-3 ƖƭƐƥGKUƈţ

ƀ 7-4 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 7-5 K=KƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 7-6 K=KƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

ƀ 7-7 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEU0

ƀ 8-1 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-2 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-3 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 8-4 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 8-5 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]

ƀ 8-6 Ŧfrac14űĞ0

1

Aring 1Auml 7Ozuumljfrac14dividearingm-1

11

2009 ƀȚŵĜ (EU) 4Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşKǝamp1 10163 MW divideʟĴ-4 9994 MW Kdivideamp (EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)3 2009ƀ1GˬOtildeş3ŀdivide1DFͶoumlɯ4 EU-4ǰņ3ʟĴ-4ʖ 2frac143ǝamp0Ʌ0)G(EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)ɪɱ1AsectĀɎʥǃaeligethȿĀʂɗǛ3ŘszligIgraveBŘŚAEligʬ3ĪͲ)ampǘ3ɡɦ1DFͶoumlɯ3˞40)G szligɪ-ͶoumlɯɯKŮ-Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bnCcedilɓŝ10)Gė˃

ƟAGͶoumlɯ3ƷŞ4ͶoumlɯƯ3PygP]bn1aRZn3ɯ˩ɩ1ĕF

)ampǨɏEȣɱʄ0ʀ˾Kƾ)GH4ͶoumlɯɯaRZn3ˬOtilde]bnſĹͶKǣ

Ƞ-ʀG-GE-F=ampͶoumlɯ3Ńuumlˊ1Ū0ɗǛ]bnEsectĀɎ

ʥAǃaelig0E-G3D0ijDz3ɚƙG1AͶoumlɯ3]bn463Ĵ3

-AaRZn1=ampěĴņɮ0)FǷʃʐ-43ɏ1ɒɏKƎG

12 frac34frac12sup2

Ƿʃʐ-4ĴSrYȗͶoumlśǟąŚʖ 26ccedilʉmiddot (IEA Wind Task26)Ͷoumlɯ3]bn131ļ+ěĴ3bʃʐKɥ7 Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3ɸ3ĎįKDŽGđdivideĴ4mZoPkUhbPbQRmbPbʟĴ-G Ͷoumlɯ]bn3˟ʏF-4Ʒ]bnʰƾ˺]bnƀɯoumlɯoumlͿ

)ampǘŅ3Ȓƭ˞ʥK˰EgraveHE3]bn3ȵHaRZnǴszligiquest-ŃĀGKDŽGƛ

˞G3aRZn-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnK˷ǥȣGamp3˞0ɂŚćfrac14ĹʗĀɯ

ĎEgrave (LCOE) Kȏ˪ampLCOE 4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3PygP]bn3Ĝ˩OacuteKɠķ1otildeƊƀɯouml1ļ+ĹʗĀampOacute-GLCOE4ɮ0Gˤɏ1ʑ)ampěʍ3ǞȰBưȰKɥ˩ʙG-GǷĽġ-4HE3ˡɏD7Ni3(ș`pU˩ɩȰƄyacuteX

j`yccedilǿȰ3 2KɥG ǷĽġ1Gccedilǿ3ņccedilȤƷŞ3ˡɏEěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnK˰EgraveampA3-

GDFacirciquestɱ1˧5ǷĽġǮ3 LCOE ccedilǿʫȁ4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴatildeƷŞěɥampmǞȰKɥěˇ3aRZn3K˺GbrvbarAring13Ĵecirc3yacute]bnK˘ampA3-GɫƧ

4Ƿʃʐ1Gyacute]bn3ȣ4Ͷoumlɯ3ʇmiddotɱɥ0J(3SrY3eumlɥ1

DFʇmiddotƺG]bnͿK˰EgraveampA3-40-G Ͷoumlɯ3yacute]bn3˩ʙ-4ͶoumlɯaRZn1Gˬʹ˺1ƛ˞HGegrave

3Ǔaelig1GccedilǿʫȁK˘1G3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʣ]bn3˰Egrave1divideěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ

aRZn3ƯDzʿeumlɥ-GĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3PdlOzK˷ǥ˽Ĵ-ɣ G]bn˞ʥ3

KǥE1G ǷĽġǮ-4= LCOE KȒƭG]bn˞ʥKʞć1˷ǥș1ǷaRZn3-ɯHampb

jo`nm1˷ǥGěđdivideĴENjAEligHampmg1ļ+đɔbKŚʻ˽Ĵ1aacute

Gȣ3PnKǥE1GěĴ3ĎEgrave˞ʥKđɔbȣͶoumlɯ3 LCOE 3ŸɮKɣ GĎįKǥE1Gș3dZ`-4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEdegǯɱǞȰKʞć1˷ǥͶouml

ɯ3ĹʗĀĎEgraveK˩ʙGș1đɔb-Śʻamp]bn˞ʥ1ļ+LCOELJŚOacute3K˷ǥɥGǞȰ31D) LCOE ŃJ)GKś˯GǰƔ3ʒ-ěđdivideĴ3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3]bn˞ʥK=˷ǥGsup2ǷĽġǮ3ȑ˞-G

2

13 uumljfrac14divideAElignp[

131 -1UacuteIgrave

Ͷoumlɯ3]bn˞ʥ4ǷƷ]bnʰƾD7˺]bn-GHEě

1ěʍ3]bn˞ʥĠ=HGǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampIuml3]bn˞ʥ4Uograve A1ʆF-G ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ņͳ3ǷƷKƛ˞$3Ȓƭ˞ʥ4Ͷ-0ŅʍŅȓ-G

Ugrave 1-1 1ʆD1Ʒʱͳ3ʢ 75Ͷ3]bn-FȟF4˘1=ampD1ʡʭʡļʅˬʹ0E71ƈˬ1G]bn-GHE3]bn4oPkmZbPˏĴ33m

g1ļ+GǑĐ]bn4aRZnŐǨ1ʄIgrave3]bnKƎeacute3ǷƷ1ĠG

KʻyacutemacrGĴAG

Ugrave 1-1 uumljfrac14divideBL0+ccedilyenccedil-1UacuteIgrave

ʱ]bn1ĈGotildeĜͿ reg3]bn1żĈGotildeĜͿ ͶŶľɀͿ

ʡʭʡ ļʅ

ȥˬOtilde ĵĸ

yacute]bn ƈˬ

]^gn

68-84 2-10 1-9 1-9 1-5 1-5 1-5 1-3

ndashndashndash 35-45 20-25 10-15 5-10 5-10 5-10 5-10

ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

ʰƾ4Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥ-ż4IgraveʚɡD7ŚǴɱIgraveŗɏȏ^wbŋʢ

)ampijŚĠ=HGŃuuml1Ġ=HG34ˊ1˩ɩɱG4˩ɩń3IgraveŗɏȏBĦordfnj3]bnʗ

-GHE3]bn4ƀƄ1D)ɮ0GampaRZnǴK Xj`y3ȵHŚ

Gsup3Ś˟ʏFK˖ŅͶoumlɯaRZn-4ƀ3ɗǛ˞-Fƕ)

ʰƾƀ]bn3ņĄKĈG10G3oumlźľ-4oumlʡʭ^wb1macrɣ Gɑ

ucircouml˚Ugrave]bn03]bnͶoumlɯaRZn-ƛ˞10GľĜG LCOE3ņccedilKĈG3yacute]bn-GͶoumlɯaRZnƈˬ3ļɵ0GyacuteȒ3ʍ͵0E

71macrGOumlD7Ƿ3Ȓƭ˞ʥAĴ1D)˒ɮ0G=amp$H1ťǴƒ-Geumlɲ1

AOumlBǷ3ƷŞ1D)Ž4ż1ņE14ěĴ3ȰlaquoʌȒAͶoumlaRZn1macr

Gyacute]bnʱͳ1ƐG x 1-14Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3˟ʏF1Ġampěʍ3]bn˞ʥƷ]bnƀʰƾyacuteŃǘʗͿ

KʆampA3-GͶoumlɯaRZn3ǰʨɱɣɤə4ouml-GampLCOEKƀɯouml-ĹʗĀGƛ˞Gɯouml4Ͷ3əɡɱɚƙD7ɚŚ3aRZn^Pn3ͶɅ3ɚƙ1ŷęHG

132 s_N3N9A

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oumlɯ1G]bn1ɒɏKƎěoumlźľ1GĔTHORNPdlOzK=ampA3-Gɯ

1DGĔTHORN1divideěʍ3PdlOzKAuml)Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKʄś1ĮĔ-GD1GH

E3PdlOz14ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ(FIT)ɣɤ1Ɯ ampʌͳdžaumlɣė˃SrY˯ǮG4reg3VqcG

3

x 1-1 uumljfrac14divide-1 ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

133 icirc

Ͷoumlɯ1Gɶ3Ņ=žĀHEHE4ĔTHORNB]bn3˰Egrave1Ġ0

HE4ɯƴ˗3oacuteșɱƐ1GńƟG4ʇmiddotɱɥ-Gˊ1aumlɣė˃SrY3ƴ˗4

ƕǽĺɅ3ƴ˗1ȣńƟ3Ɛż1Ū0IEA3 ldquoRenewable Energy Costs and Benefits for Society (RECaBS)rdquo aRZn-4ǥƟ3ǞȰKɥƕǽĺɅaumlɣė˃SrYɅKȣɯ3]bnEacuteɲKLJŚG (RECaBs 2007)ReCABS3ǞȰ˼1DH53ccedilǿ14ș3 53ńƟĠ=HG

ȥNtildeŃuumlɁŜucircȁWbɚ1 CO2D7 CH4Ϳ reg3ņȥȩȃɅSOxNOxD7ʠőͿ ʡʭʡoumlPy93divide]bn oumlʬ˺ǙͶ3şZajnˮȲ 41DGȿͳʗͿ

ɗǛAEligʬ3ŘszligIgraveɗǛTHORN3ĴatildeɅ-3degɥ HE3ńƟ1divideͶoumlɯ4ɗǛ3ȸB$H1sup1ɗǛEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ŷęH0Ͷoumlɯƴ˗

93ƷbZ4ĀʂɗǛ1DGɯƴ˗3bZyMPɮ0GHEszlig3ɚƙ1DFͶoumlɯ

ƴ˗reg3ɯƴ˗3EgraveOacuteNjȊ1G˞0ɚƙɣ GǷʃʐ4$3ȣ˰EgraveK˱gtampA3-

40

134 LCOEGKaacute

UhSrYʃʐdg (ECN) AcircƭampXj`ym4ǷaRZn1G

ˮȲ 4 şZajn (capacity credit) ʡʭŘŚƄ1ƤƐK0ʜı-Ͷoumlɯ1D)ƕǽĺɅHʹnj

EHGKʆȣɞAring5 şZajn 303ľĜǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ 1 GW1ťƕǽĺɅK 03GWȿEG-GşZajn1G˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

4

LCOEyacuteYj (FG) 3˟ʏF3ļɵ0)G3 ECNm4otildeƊXj`ym-Ǝeacute4Uh1Gaumlɣė˃SrY3˚ugrave3ɯAEligʬĽŌK˩ʙGamp1AcircƭHampA3

-Gɠķ ECN43mKɥUhǕƃ1ěʍaumlɣė˃SrYƸ˂3ɣɤ]bnK3ʋƄ1ugrave˧GIEAWind Task26KɯŮ-đdivide˽Ĵ3]bnȒK˟ʏAGamp3mKIcircȜƼņͶoumlɯ3]bnKȄ˳ʧ1˩ʙ-Gkamp3mKȒƭ

G34ɯƯ^PcǨszligːǨˀɥƀǘƷ]bnʰƾaRZn3˺

3ɚƙ)ampmĀ3amp3vg0E71Ɓʜ0vg-GěĴD7==0ˠ

iacuteiquestiacute13mKɥ-$3ȗ˃ŅɥƟǔīHGAring5Xj`y

mKǔ˨ͶoumlɯaRZn3ěˠiacuteiquestiacute1ƕ==0ƴ˗ɱyacuteɱvg1ɥ-

GD1amp3D0Ȅ0m4Ʒ]bnʱͳ3˩ʙ3gt0Eěʍ3ɥ3ɚƙByacuteưȠ

0E71ĴQOoyM3PdlOzK˷ǥG-˞-G

135 GK|yenfrac12-N3B

Xj`ybjo`nKɥͶoumlɯ3]bnK˳ʧ1˩ʙG$3szligvgKUograve A1ʆ3bjo`nm4 6 3Z`n-ȒƭHǰeacute3 3 3Z`n4ɚŚ3Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3˩ʙ1ƛ˞0˳ʧƥĽKNjAEligGamp3A3-G ǰeacute3Z`n4ƀșŃuuml3013ŃǘKŚGA3-GH14aRZn3ɚƙƷ]b

nʱͳǑĐ]bnʱͳĎȲ2szligːǨ1ɔEampǨ]bn˩ʙ3˩ɩťǴĠ=HGƷ]b

nǑĐ]bn4ěʍ3Ȓƭ˞ʥ3ʱͳ˘-GH4ś3]bn3Ÿɮ3ŅĴȣ3

amp3ƥĽKNjAEligHG=amp3Z`n1DFPyŃuuml]bnŀK˷ǥGampͿOumleuml

ɲɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞ0E71OumlǷȣɞaRZn1macrGyacutebZKēǧGampͿ)

ampěʍ3yacuteŃǘKŚG-GE13Xj`ym4ĴBŵ3ȰlaquoʌKʾƬampA

3-G ƀșŃuuml13Z`n14ʰƾĸdegʡʭ]bn)ampƀijŚŃuuml-ȒƭHG

ěʍɶĠ=HFHEK˳ccedil͵ěĴ-ȣ-GD1G=amp-ȥǛBʧ

ȪŚ˞įŋʢ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnʗͿKŚʻG ʖ 33Z`nǕʘ13-4ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT)ʌͳdž$3reg3PdlOzKȏ˪G

3m3U`ȿʌ3EacuteɲKaRZn3Xj`y1ŚampFɑiacuteĎȲ31

ampFG-G3THORNoumlvgK$3ș3Z`n1AumlͶoumlɯaRZn3 LCOE Bɯ3yacuteYj (FG) KȪŚGTHORNouml―aeligouml13Z`n4$3ʫȁ3 LCOE FGK˘ampA3-˩ʙ-ɥampŃǘK=Gś3Xj`y3˩ʙ4aRZn3Xj`y

13D7LCOEXj`y13Z`n-˖

136 LCOE FGYacuteEgrave

LCOE FG4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEXj`yK˩ʙampʫȁ-GampĞɶ3ʌƊƔǷeumlɲɞKLCOE FG3otildeƊɞɥGraquo LCOE FG14ě3˩ʙ1ɮ0GXj`y3ȵHKĠGH1sup21ȑ˷G ż3ľĜLCOE3Ľġ14ƷǓaeligƀ]bnȿEgraveUgraveČD7ƸampotildeƊɞAumlJHGƕ)

3Ȃʩgtatilde1G LCOE 3˩ʙOacute4ƷǓaelig3ƾccedilotildeĜszligǴ3otildeƊʌƊƔXj`yʱͳKeȜģɠķEgraveOacute (NPV) G31ƛ˞0ɣɤCcedilœeumlɲŚʻHGLCOE3˩ʙ-4ɯG4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɚecirc1ɥHGPdlOzE3ĔTHORN3Xj`yKʾƬ0

ECN3 LCOE˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

ĎȲ2 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4ǑĐ]bnKaRZnƈʝǴ1ʄIgraveKĴʻyacutemacrGľĜ3gt3]b

nKĠamp ĎȲ3 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4szlig3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKɑiacute13sup3Śamp=Feumlɥė˃0szlig3ȿʌ3ơƣKřszlig1ĖEH

GD0Xj`yăccedil1œķG-G

5

H41ɠķ FG3˩ʙ-4Ͷoumlɯ1ijDz3ɯɱPdlOz3Xj`yfynYacute˖Ʒʌļɵ3ƷugraveƭʗͿKʾƬG3Śʻ1ļ+brvbarś FG1D)ěĴ3 LCOEɯ0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ɱPdlOz1DFśɠHampeumlɲ3K˘G

ECNm3 FG˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

˫3D1ʌƊƔ3ƀXj`y14ouml3łĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3˚ugraveƱƮD7P

dlOzƀʰƾȽeumlƢǓƱ0E71yacuteľ3ȿEgraveUgraveČeumlődž3ʌƊƔͳ

E3Xj`yĠ=HG x 1-24LCOEƖEHampĔTHORNoumlźľĔTHORNFITAEligʬĽŌʗͿPdlOzD7yacuteYj

3EcircKʆampA3-G3IJ1ʆD1FGOacuteȜ3ľĜ4aRZnɯʿ3 LCOEK31ƛ˞0ĔTHORNƖEH0)ampƧģ-F3ľĜ4 LCOE KG3ăccedil0ĔTHORNƖEHampKʆĨG

x 1minus2 aringmH7Bmacrs_N3N9AampgtKQ-1Agravedeg

ʌƊƔ3Xj`yt

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ ndash

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

FG =

1 ndash ʌɞ times ƀʰƾ t ndash ʌɞ times euml t + ʌyacute3ȿEgraveUgraveČ t

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ +

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

LCOE =

6

14 rkzoumlRuumljfrac14divide-1

șʛ-4 Ĵ3aRZn3ǎugraveKGĴatildeƷŞ1)3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKđdivideamp 7Ĵ3Ĵecirc1ʆH14 ECN3mǞȰ˼KɥG˞0Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3ŃǘKŅĴ-ȣG1DFěĴ3ccedilFͶoumlɯaRZn3|bP]bnǥʄ10Geumlɥ

ė˃0mgEHGampȳͶoumlɯ3]bn4˳ʆ0ĽġHamp]bnmg3

Ūǘ3^KĠG

15 vQ5otildeordm

3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnƟ˃0E71yacutemgszligiquest3ȜʄDzucircƟKaeligǽGF˯ǥD

ampmgfb4ŅʍŅȓ-FĽġHampmg34ĴD7mgfb1DFɮ0)G

Aring5ĽġHamp]bn3mg42008 ƀ3ͳ-˘ampɠķEgraveȉK˘G3ŚEgraveȉǥʄ-0brvbarAringAG=ampsup21ǀGvgA2008 ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlaRZnK˘amp3A3-Gś14 2008ƀntilde1ɯȲHǓƱJHampbrvbarAringKĠGė˃ƟGmgEHGampampɉķɱ0ɿɹKIcircȜG-0)ampE1 IEA Task264ěĴ3deg˘ɱ013aRZnK˘KƧIJampA3-GͶoumlɯ3ś3]bn4^PnaRZn1D)ɮ0G

ƕ)sup23mg4ěĴ3szligˊɱɛȯ˷ǥ3amp3gt1ʆampA3-3ɏ1ɫƧ-G

16 tzGKLCOErmicroQ1

Ͷoumlɯ3Ĵecirc3]bnļǷampaRZn-4đɔb13Ĥ8ͿȣHG

3đɔb4ěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3deg˘ɱ0Ȓƭ˞ʥK˘A3-ƴ˗ɱvgaRZn3ɚƙƟ

˃Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bnʰƾʗͿyacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞ

ǴĴ3ʌɞʗͿ3ǞĠ=HGđɔb-4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘKńG=ampͶoumlɯ

KǓǎGĕFʩgt4Ĵ1D)ɮ0GampͶoumlɯǕʘBPdlOzAĠ0ƕ)đɔ

b-4 LCOE3˩ʙʫȁ3gtK˘ʆG Ĵecirc3ƴ˗ɱvgKUgrave 1-21ʆĎȲ4đɔb-43ěvgKszlig3Ĵ1Ga

RZn3ˬOtildeş3divideſĹ˩ʙGđɔb3ƴ˗ɱvg3OacuteA3˘1ʆF

2008 ƀ3ˬOtildeşȣɱņ)ampbQRmʟĴ$HH 98MW85MWͿ-ƄĜņ0)G7 Ĵ- 2008 ƀ1śǟHampdeg˘ɱ0aRZnKŅŪ0FAēǧ-GD1đɔb3divide14Ĵatilde3ʱSrYş-40aRZn3ˬOtildeşKɥGđɔb3aRZ

nȒʝ14==0Ƹ˂G$3ƸĴecirc3 LCOE G4 FG ˩ʙ1ƐG40ɏKƿǐG34˞-GđɔbNjAEligG342008 ƀ3Ĵecirc3ʫȁKȣGamp3ˊɱ0ɏ10 Ugrave 1-3 4Ĵecirc3yacutevgKʆampA3-Gě3yacutevg1szlig3Ĵ3ʼnOacuteKđɔ

b3OacuteɥGYacute1ampD1đɔb3˩ʙOacuteĴecirc3 LCOE B FG 3ʫȁ1ƐG40

ECN m-4otildeƊɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞKɥGǷdivideſĹ]bn (WACC) A3˘1ʆGWACC 4˜ǘ3yacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞĴ3ʌɞͿKyacute]bnszligiquestK˷ǥGćɂŚļɆ1ĠG Ugrave 1-41ĴecircD7đɔb3 LCOE FG3ʫȁKʆ3ʫȁ142008ƀ3 LCOEyacuteYj

3˩ʙʫȁKĠG3ʫȁ4Ĵecirc3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnszligiquestK˘ampʆampA3-G3Ͷ

oumlɯaRZn-Aś3 LCOE4ľƯaRZn1D)ɮ0)G

ĎȲ4 Ugrave 1-33mĀ3sup3Ś3amp3THORNoumlmg43gt-ʆG1ɫƧraquo LCOE FG3ʫȁ4

ʟo3Ǟ-ʆG

7

Ugrave 1-2 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divideOslashfrac12JFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h b

P bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b Ͷ^Pc(MW) ĎȲ5 23 20 30 20 24 20 17 21

Ͷļǘ 7 5 5 15 41 6 50 34 szligːǨ 2695 2260 2200 2150 2600 1750 3066 2628 ƷĎȲ6(eurokW) 1250 1373 1325 1250 1591 1790 1377 1449 ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 00 15 00 00 16 00 00 06 reg3]bn

euroMWhͿ 3 0 10 3 0 0 0 1

ʰƾijŚͿ(euroMWh) 000 4633 3139 000 001 000 860 629

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 12 0 13 20 11 31 5 11

njʰƾʱͳ

(euroMWh) 12 21 28 20 11 31 7 13

đɔb divide 61 38 57 114 366 46 318 NA

Ugrave 1-3 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14dividearingmJFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h bP

bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 55 50 70 50 50 60 50 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 110 95 150 100 120 70 75 100 Oumlyacute3otildeĜͿ 80 70 80 80 87 70 0 80 Ƿ3otildeĜͿ 20 30 20 20 13 30 100 20 ǴƀͿ 13 13 15 15 20 20 15 15 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 250 298 255 300 280 210 389 280

WACCͿ 52 56 60 59 47 49 75 49

Ugrave 1-4 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divide LCOE FGyuml2008Ā

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

bPb 120 (167) oPk 5 (7) Uh 94 (131) ʟĴ ndash1 (ndash1) oPk 85 (118) bPb ndash1 (ndash1) bP 83 (115) Uh ndash3 (ndash4)

bQRm 67 (93) bP ndash3 (ndash4) ʟĴ 65 (91) mZ ndash6 (ndash8)

mZ 61 (85) bQRm ndash8 (ndash11) đɔb 68 (95) đɔb NA

Ugrave 1-41ʆampD1Ĵecirc3 LCOE4bPb3 120MWh167oMWhͿĎȲ7EmZ3 61MWh85oMWhͿ=-Gđɔb3 LCOE4 68MWh95oMWhͿLJŚGěĴ3 LCOE ɮ0)G34Ĵecirc3ɯoumlʰƾǓaeligƷ]bn˺ǞȰ31DGA3-Gș1ěĴ3 LCOE1HE3vgĒltƐKDŽG

ĎȲ5 DF˳Ͷoumlɯ]bnccedilǿ14gɷƑtzſĹͶ)amp˞0vgKĠSrYAElig

ʬ1Gǥʄ0sup3ŚKĠG10G1ʆampLJŚOacute4ǷǮ1ʆampsup2ń3ƴ˗BĴşǦ1ȣ-GD

1ș3ćʣ0shyȓ3gtKʆA3G ĎȲ6 Yacute1ampD1Ʒ]bnD7aRZnƈˬ4 2008ƀ3A3sup3ŚGś14Ʒ]bnͶ3

ɯȲʗͿ14 2008ƀsup2ntilde3ǘŒĠ=HGė˃ƟG ĎȲ7 ɐǯn 1o139-njʙ

8

17 LCOEzoacuteplusmnecirc

ŅĴccedilǿ-4ěĴ1G 43˞0]bnvg3 LCOE93ƐKDŽ)ampĴecirc1 LCOEKLJŚ63]bnvgKĴecirc3Oacute$3reg3vgKđɔb3Oacuteamp3ccedilǿ14

|bPɂŚļɆđɔb3vgOacuteͿȣampĴecirc3THORNoumlvg3ƐKegraveFamp

3ŅĴccedilǿ-ȏ˯amp˞0vg14ɯoumlƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnKĠ

ampș13ʫȁKszlig3Ĵ3-ȣamp AringěĴ3szligːǨ3 LCOE 93ƐKx 1-3 1ʆ3IJ4 3 3ǥʄ0˱bKȣ

ampA3-G=Ɍˎ3Ȍ[y4Yacute1Ugrave 1-4 -ʆampěĴ3 LCOE K˘A3-szligTHORNoumlvgKĴecirc1ʆGș1ʳ4đɔbKʆA3-|bP3 LCOEK 68MWhszligvgKđɔb3OacuteG=ampʲˎ3jn4ȼĜbKʆA3-szligːǨKĴecirc3Oacute

$3reg3vgKđɔb3OacuteG x 1-31-6 4$HHɯouml˫đɔͿƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnK˘G

Ĵecirc3 LCOEɌˎ3Ȍ[yͿđɔb3 LCOEʳͿ43IJ-AŚ˞0]bnvg4ěIJ-ɮ0)FHKV-ccedilFǦʆG

x 1-3 rmicroQ1tzfrac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀkwIumlsect

x 1-4 rmicroQ1tzccedil-1kwIumlsect

9

x 1-5 rmicroQ1tzigraveeacuteETHaeligkwIumlsect

x 1-6 rmicroQ1tzccedilntildeacirciacute-1kwIumlsect

ěĴ3˞0Ͷoumlɯ]bn3vg34sup23D1˷ǥ-GampH1E0Ϳ frac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀăszligːǨ3Ĵ1DG14==0aacuteD7Iumlecirc3˞įƐ

GAring5oPk-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ1D)aRZnɯ4ͶɅ3 Ć1ƹB

EHGmZ-4Ĵatilde3ǵɯ3^PnKɯGntilde1Ͷ3ʹˬ˩1D)Ǡœ3Ͷ

oumlɯ^Pn3ˬOtildeǭǝEumlHGľĜAF$3ʫȁĴatilde3eacuteǴ3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn3

2008ƀ1ˬOtildeǭǝ3ť0)GbPb-4ű3NZdbEHGamp2008ƀ1śǟHampɯaRZn3ǘ4ŚHampA310)GʟĴ14Uumlccedil1ˍō0ͶɅ

KDzGaRZn^PnǘŅGʳ93NZdbeumlɥė˃ɞEHGamp

aRZnɥ^PnȪŚ14FFľĜ1D)4ɯ3aeligoumlƶiacuteKGKƖ00)

GǞbQRm-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ4Ƿʃʐ3reg3Ĵ4ĪͲ10)0Uh-4

FIT3ĽŌ3szligːǨ3ǰņOacute-ȪEHGampǰ0^PnKɯampFǰǝ3ƴ˗KɥampFGyacutePdlOzŪ00)Gė˃ƟG

ccedil-1ăƷ]bn4Ĵ1D)˒ɮ0GmZ-AUh-AszligːǨ1ļ+

ugraveƭ3 FITĽŌͶ3Ƹ1Ɛƕ)aRZn3Ʒ]bn1ƐGmZ-4szligːǨampF3˚ugrave3ͳKǰņ1Gampņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶUacuteYacute

HGǞUh-4˚ugraveKszligːǨ3ʜıatildeGampDF]bn3ŘͶ

10

ƴ˗ˡˡHGmZ-4oumlʡʭ93ʡ]bn)ampͶoumlɯaRZn3

ŨTHORN]bn34aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZn3So_oumlȸʿͿ

ǓƱ)G$3ampmZ3ʡ]bn4Ʒ]bn1Ġ=H0bPo

Pk$3reg33Ĵ-4ʡ]bn$3reg3ʡʭŀƍ]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿǓ

Ʊ)Famp)H4Ʒ]bn1ĠEHGbQRm14Ʒ]bn3ethȿ

ė˃10GD0ćʣĀHampʡʭʡưGoPk-4ͶoumlɯͶɅ3 Ć

1ƼņampʫȁɯbrvbarȐʿ4$3˚UgraveưȠŅ3aRZn-gɷƑ3ņ0ͶK

DFľƯ1ˬʹGKƖ00)GƷ]bn4gɷƑD7tz3ǘOacuteņ

0GͿbPb-4ű3ͶoumlɯaRZnɥ^Pn93NZdb=ampˠ

ȕ3ʪȽKȘGampƷ]bn0)G ʟĴ-4ņˠȕ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥEacuteɲ4ɚ1Ͷ3THORN1EcircFɯȲˠȕ

ņ0G1HEgraveȉotildeƊHG˯ǥHGʟĴ3QOoyM4đɔbD

FAaRZnˠȕņƷ]bnfrac12ampʟĴ3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4ǘotildeƊĖEHG

ơƣGˉģȻ1bQRm-4aRZn3ˠȕņ0)AEgraveȉ3otildeƊ

3ơƣ40H4 2008ƀ3bQRm3ˬʹ]bnmampaRZnşȣŪ0)ampamp-ė˃ƟG

igraveeacuteETHaeligăěĴʆampʰƾ3mg4ʄśƟşǦ1Iacuteͱ-0ǘOacute-G

mZ-4żͶoumlɯaRZn3OumlȖʿ4 5Έ10 ƀ3Ǵɱʰƾ^wbŋʢKƛ˞FH4ƀʢ 25kWĽġHGUh-4ʰƾ14żaRZnszligiquest-Ś3EgraveȉHG^wbŋʢ]bnD7ĸdegĠ=HFĽġH

G]bn45Έ23kWņoPk-Aǰfrac12 5ƀ3řszlig0^wbŋʢƛ˞HGľĜGbPb-4ʰƾ3ʪEHGuacuteNZd`wlO

3ĪͲ0E71Ͷ3ɼȧBcentȵ1D)reg3ĴDFʰƾ0)GʟĴ3

ʰƾ4ƀŨTHORNHampņˠȕ0aRZn-4ſĹfrac120)GD-GʟĴ-4

YN~jZbzoG4ɯȗ3ĦKordfnjGǨǴǣG˯ƻAcedilEHF

ƕ)ĽġHGmg3ʰƾ4ũ˰EgraveHGė˃ƟGoPk-AOtildeĦ3ordfnj

ƛ˞HGampũˠȕaRZn-4ʰƾ0)G=ampoPk4szligiquest3

ʰƾ3˞0Ȓƭ˞ʥͳ0ŚǴɱɠĸˡŤ3]bnĽġHGbQRm

-4ʰƾaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒ɮ0)G ccedilntildeacirciacute-1ăͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bn4ʟĴsup2ń3Ĵ-4ĝʋƄ-Gm

ZoPkUh-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿub`n1ļ+Ͷouml

ɯaRZn3K˺Goumlmiddotʇ-GľĜKż4aRZn$3A31D

)K˺GmZbQRm-4ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˊɱ1frac12

bZ3Ʒȗ˟0H$HaRZn33ȪŚ1ēǧHGʟĴsup2ń33Ĵ-

AaRZn3˺3Oumlȣɞ40)Fż4 60Έ87-G ʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn˺ǞȰ4(E5Aringńɱ-G2008 ƀ14ʟĴ3Ņ3aRZnż1ˇŹǷȣɞ55 100Ϳ-˺HaRZn1ļ+Ouml4lte-)ampH4Ǖƃ3yacute3˚ugraveiacuteƄ3amp-F3iacuteƄ1DFgjZb

SZPlO13ʀEHGSZPlOyMPpbȇƉɯ˖1DGǷ˺Ϳ1ɚĀHampƏƩ

ƞŀampgjZbSZPlOyMPpbUacuteYacuteHampampʟĴ-4regĴDFAǷ]bn

0)G0J(gjZbSZPlO4żOumlDFAͿ=ampʟĴ-4Ouml1D

G˺1D)aRZn3ɅKʄIgraveampb-4aRZn-40Ȱlaquo|-

3OumlK)GľĜ)amp =-3=x 1-31-61ʆamp 43˞0]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥD7ěĴ3 LCOEđɔ

b3 LCOEKx 1-71ʆ

11

x 1-7 rmicroQ1tzordfUacuteIgravekwIumlsect

x 1-8 4˞0]bnŃǘ3 LCOE 93ƐKE1ȣȏ˪Gamp1˞0]bnvgKĴecirc-40[1G3IJ-4ěĴ3]bnŃǘ3ƐD7đɔbȣampěĴ3 LCOE3ņKʆGȌ[y4ěĴ3 LCOE KŀdivideGOacuteKʆʲ3Ȍ[y4đɔbDFAěĴ3 LCOE Kfrac12GOacuteKʆ˞0]bnvgKLCOE đɔbDFŀdivideampʋƄȌ[yͿ3ņ1E1ʆGAring5ɯouml3ǰũŃǘ4bPbĽġampǘOacute-G

3Ĵ3ʰƾƷ]bnDFA LCOE KŀdivideG3ǰfrac12OacuteEǰOacute=-3Ĵecirc3THORNoumlvg3ʜıEɯoumlD7Ʒ]bn LCOE 1ǰAƐampJGH4ˊ1Đ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOEƨƄccedilǿˈG (IEA 2010 Cory and Schwabe 2009)ˉģȻ1ĽġHampʰƾ3ʜı4đɔbȣƷ]bn˺]bnDFA LCOE ŀdivide1ƐG3E ʰƾmg3ʄśƟeumlɥė˃Ɵƕ)THORNoumlvg3Ĵ1DG3ņLCOELJŚOacute3ȜʄƟKEHampA31ampė˃ƟGʰƾ1įGŸɮKȿEampE0Gccedilǿ

ƛ˞-GʾEHG

x 1-8 tzSUacute-1JFQ5 LCOEoslash

12

18 rkzacuteRuumljfrac14divide-1

ECN3m1DF-0ȳ1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯƯ3 LCOEKLJŚG-GraquoɠǨɏ-eumlɥ-GȳaRZn3mg4EHFɚ1Ĵecirc3 LCOE KLJŚG31ƛ˞0THORNoumlŃǘ3řszlig0mgƉGƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ1GĴecirc3 LCOE ȣ4˖)E$3đɔbAˬ0sup23Ugrave 1-5 D7 1-6 1ĽġHG]bn˺3mg3KʆɫƧmZ-4ʡʭ93ʡD7ȷƂz3ƛ˞ƟKʇmiddotɱɥGamp

aRZn3ɯȐʿHKƺ0-G3ccedilǿ-ɥampm4aR

Zn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏ1ʑ)ampA3-GampmZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF1ēǧ0m

Āccedilǿ-4Aumlɥ0)ampHE3ʡʭʡ]bnKĠG-mZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF4

ʢ 3000kW10Gx 1-71HE3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1˟ʏA)amp LCOEyacuteYjKʆ

Ugrave 1-5 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+fOslashfrac12JFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn aRZn3ɛȯ 2007ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF

ʓŶƀ 2007ƀ 2010ƀƔĄ ɚŚH ɯƯ^Pc(MW) 20 23 50

Ͷļǘ 60 90 12 szligːǨ 3350 3800 3700 Ʒ(eurokW) 3315 1883 3230

ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 0 0 0 reg3]bn(euroMWh) 11 0 0 ʰƾijŚͿ

(euroMWh) 149 0 123

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 0 24 0

njʰƾʱͳ(euroMWh) 44 24 33

ˀɥƀǘ 15 25 20

x 1-6 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+faringmJFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 45 65 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 120 112 150 OumlotildeĜͿ 50 26 70 ǷotildeĜͿ 50 74 30 ǴƀͿ 15 13 12 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 255 250 298

WACCͿ 79 92 77

Ugrave 1-7 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+f LCOEthornFG

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

Prinses Amalia 166 (231) oPkˊcurrenɂ NA oPkˊcurrenɂ 156 (217) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 6 (8) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 88 (122) Prinses Amalia 5 (7)

13

19 T LCOEYacuteEgravesup2

LCOE4==0ɶɱuumlȗD7˸ʿ3amp1˩ʙHGˊźȤǕʘȪŚʿƷŞaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿʗě3ɚŚ3qcKɄamp LCOE KeumlɥGamp) LCOE 1AumlJHGưȰ4ȓ-40LCOEK3ʋƄ˳LJŚGG43ʋƄ3sup3Śƛ˞4AumlɥG˩ʙǞȰ1D)==-FH LCOE 3ʫȁ1˒ƐG3ampecirc3 LCOE ˩ʙǞȰK=-3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECNmD7ǞȰťȣsup21˷ǥG Aring5ș˩ɩ`pU-4Ʒ]bn3ɠķOacuteD7ʇmiddotɱotildeƊɞKɥotildeFƊampƀ]bn3ſ

Ĺ1ļ+ćʣĀampdeg˘OacuteKɥ LCOE K˟ʏAGľĜG3Ni-4OumlǷȣɞOumlǷ]bnǴȰlaquoʌ)ampǥʄ0ɅʄIgraveǼacute3sup3Ś0H0$3degJF3ćʣ

0ǞȰ-4otildeƊɞLOacute3gtKɥF$H1D)yacuteưȠ3ɚƙKszlig˘GIEA 3Projected Costs of Generation Electricityrdquo (IEA2010) D7IEA World Energy Outlook 2009rdquo (IEA 2009) 43NiKɥFsup23Ɖ1DF LCOEK˩ʙG

3Ni-4IEA 4otildeƊɞKʇmiddotɱɅ]bn13˘G3]bn4ʇmiddotszligiquestɚŚ

3ƴ˗1ƷG1ƺ]bnK˘ (IEA2010)3ʇmiddotɱ˟ĸEIEA4otildeƊɞ 5Έ10KɥF5KȣɱŘŚɱ0ɢĿ1GOumlyacuteŰ˖bZ3frac12ƷŞeumlɥ-Gɞ1310K˒ʪȽɱƴ˗ɱbZD7EgraveȉbZ1ɷGƷŞ3Ʒ]bn13G (IEA2010)DFćʣĀampș˩ɩ`pU1DFTHORNoumlvg3ǘKǰũ1˳ʧƄ1D)ěʍ3ɯĺ3 LCOE KşǦ1ȣG-G H41 ɯȐʿ4 ECNm3D0Ƅ0Xj`ymKAuml)ɚŚ3aRZn

ě3 LCOE0E71ȜģɠķEgraveOacuteatildeĔɲɞȽǴ)ampreg3yacuteƿȔK˰EgraveG3m1˜ǘ3ƯDzʿ3ǥʄ0˺3ntildeNjǼacuteʌ3Ɛ$3reg3ĔTHORNG4]bn3ƐKĠ

GľĜAGǨ143mKɥegrave3ɉķɱ0]bn3ȵHK˰EgraveampFparaȐ3ɚŚ3

aRZn93ƷKė˃1GeumlɲƖEHGD0SrYEgraveȉKȪŚampFG(Harper et al 2007)3˳ʧ0ǞȰKɥampľĜƷ]bnBƀʪ-0ǘŅ3˞į LCOE 1ƐG10GaRZnƈˬ3ǰʨɱ0ȪŚȖ4ƷŞ1GampͶoumlɯ3ʮʯɱ0ˬʹKė˃1G]bn3OacuteKɡ˥

G14ƷŞ3ˡɏKɡ˥G˞-G Aring3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECN m4ƾccedilƷŞ1ƯŚ3Ƿeumlɲɞ (ROE) KIgrave˯aR

ZnȢ1 LCOEK˰EgraveGamp3Ƅ0Xj`ym-GYacute1ampD1ECN3Xj`ymKE1˳ʧ0A31G-ǷD7OumleumlőKƾ˺ȒKǥʄ1˘-

G=ampͶoumlɯ3]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏE˘-aRZnKGamp

3ĔTHORN3ȵH-ɸȡ0H50E0Ͷoumlɯ]bnK˟ʏG-G

110 LCOEYacuteEgraveocircicedilplusmnecirc

Ugrave 1-8 4otildeƊɞ LCOE ǞȰKȣampA3-GXj`yccedilǿ3ćʣ0ǞȰƄ0ǞȰ3ǞKɥ3otildeƊɞ1 LCOE K˟ʏFreg3egrave3]bnvgKě3đɔb1ɔEŚampE1HEʿ3ǞȰ1D)đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿKɣ GotildeƊɞK˘G

t=1Tsum Ʒ t + ʰƾ t + ɗǛ t + Ɏʥ]bn t + ǑĐ t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

LCOE =

t=1Tsum ɯouml t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

Ϳ

14

ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3ˡɏELdeg˘ɱ0otildeƊɞ4Ȥ3aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿG4ƷŞ3ˡɏ1ʑ

)ampotildeƊɞ3OacuteDFfrac120GtimesğGIEA2010 1DH5ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3otildeƊɞfrac120)Gɡɦ4bZŪǘ3ȤƷŞ-40ǘŅ3IumllaquoƷŞ1ccedilǗHGampɷGbZ˺]bn

Ū00Gamp-G$H1sup1ʇmiddotɱˡɏE3 LCOE 3˟ʏFAȤƷŞ3˟ʏFDFAfrac120Gtimesğ1G

Ugrave 1-8 icedil LCOEsup2plusmnecirc

ǞȰͽˡɏ ˡɏ ˺]

bn3Ʋ ɥ m

otildeƊɞ3

ʜı

otildeƊɞ3ʜı

1G LCOE

đɔb3

LCOEKɣ GotildeƊɞ

ș`pU ˩ɩ3ćʣ˩ʙ

agraveɱʇmiddotɱ ƷŞ3ˡɏ

otildeƊɞ1 ĠG IEA2010 5Έ10

53Έ70MWh

IEA3ǞȰͿ

95 IEA3ǞȰͿ

ƄXj`

yccedilǿ

aRZn ɯbrvbarȐʿG

4ȤƷŞ ǥʄ1Śʻ ECN2008 75Έ15

(ROE) 64Έ76

MWh 10

ECN3ǞȰͿ

reg3szlig3Ńǘ1đɔb3ntildeNjǼacuteKɥ Ƿccedilǿ-ĽġHamp ROE3ʜı1ļ+

Ugrave 1-8 1ʆD1(E3Ni-ALotildeƊɞ3 LCOE Oacute1˒ƐG95otildeƊɞ4ʇmiddot3ˡɏK˘ʞɬ0˩ʙȰKɥđɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿK˩ʙG31ƛ˞0Oacute-Gƕ)Ƿʃʐ3đdivide˽ĴĽġampmg1ļ+0E3otildeƊɞ4ǰņOacute1+4-F

IEA-43ʜıK 5Έ10GH4ʞɬĀampʇmiddotɱ˩ɩǞȰKɥƄXj`yưȰ3ordmOacuteKǥE1ampA3-G 1frac12Ǟ3otildeƊɞNjȊHampŽ3ǰAfrac12OacuteͿˊƷŞ3bK˘amp1ɥEHGƕ)

LCOEK˩ʙG14=ampͶoumlɯ3 LCOEKreg3Ʌ3 LCOEȣG14aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏG4DFƁoumlʡʭ|3ˡɏ3(E1ʑ)GKǥʄ1GėȘ-G

otildeƊɞ3Ƹ4$3ˡɏ1ťƜGdz=LCOEK˘ěʍ3ƉKɥGľĜ4ʑˆGˡɏotildeƊɞ$3reg3vg3OacuteKǥʄ1˥Gƛ˞HG

111 Iumlatilde

IEAWind Task263ʫȁELCOEĴ1D)ņɮ0)GJG33ƄĜ4ɯoumlƷɥ˺)ampě]bn3Ɛ1DGA3HGcurrenƦFĴŞ3 LCOE3Ÿɮ1ǰAƐamp34Ƿɱ0ͶȯG4Ͷ3ƴ˗shyȓ1ļ+currenɂHGɯouml-G=amp

ǷɱǓaeligD7ͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ǽacuteņɮ0GEźľoumlAͶoumlɯ3]bnszligiquest

1˒ƐGE1ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾAěĴ-˒ɮ0FH LCOE 1ņ1Ɛamp 63ɂŚļɆ-SrY3]bnszligˊK˘ LCOE 3Ɵ4ĴBɶɱ˸ʿ$3reg3eumlɥʿ3

-ćʣ0ȣ-GD1ƝJHGLCOE3ěʍ3˩ʙ3ˡɏE3D10HampKȜʄ1ɡ˥Gƛ˞GLCOE4ɪaacute-Aordfnjė˃0˩ʙ-A0IɚŚ3qc1ɥHGDzɲ-Eacuteeuml0k-Gƕ)ȣD7$3ʫȁ3˥14ɫƧGdz=

rOtildemiddot

Cory and Schwabe 2010 ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financial Variablesrdquo httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2009) ldquoThe Economics of Wind Energy A Report by the European Wind

15

Energy Associationrdquo March 2009 Available at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentspublicationsreportsEconomics_of _Wind_Main_Report_FINAL-lrpdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2010) ldquoWind in Power 2009 European Statisticsrdquo The European Wind Energy Association February 2010 Accessed at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentsstatistics100401_General_Stats_20 09pdf

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review and Comparative Analysisrdquo Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 Accessed at httpeetdlblgoveaempreports63434pdf

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2006) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2006rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2006weo2006pdf

IEA (2008) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2008rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2008weo2008pdf

IEA (2009) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2009rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgWbookshopaddaspxid=388

IEA (2010) ldquoProjected Costs of Generating Electricityrdquo 2010 Edition Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgpublicationsfree_new_DescaspPUBS_ID=2207

RECaBs (2007) ldquoRECaBs Interactive Renewable Energy Calculatorrdquo Renewable Energy Calculator Accessed August 2010 at httpwwwrecabsorg

Wiser R Bolinger M (2010) ldquo2009 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy August 2010 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs2009_wind_technologies_market_reportpdf

16

Aring 2Auml NDQ+

21 NDQ+uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ȑ˞0E71]bn3ɚƙKG-

4 2008 ƀ3D7ȳͶoumlɯƴ˗1GĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1ɒɏKƎG

211 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

2008ƀǶ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ĝ˩ 3179MW 2756MWȳ 423MWͿ-H4 2007ƀǶ3ˬOtildeş1ťʢ 1252000ƀ3ˬOtildeşDFA 32ŀdivideG2001ƀE 2008ƀ=-1ŀdivideampˬOtildeş3ʢĄǘ4ȳͶoumlɯ1DGA3-G2008 ƀ1ȳ-ƈˬ3ȳQOoyM4 3F(64 2009ƀ1řƭA64 2010ƀʈ1ŐGcurrenŚ-GˮȲ 5 x 2-1 1ʆD1ŨTHORN3Ƅ4Ǵ15EņJG2001ƀE 2003ƀ1

ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 725MW ŀdivideamp2004 ƀE 2007 ƀ=-4 8MW ŀdivideamp10H4 2003 ƀ1śǟHampaRZn3ǕɱǓǎ˩ɩņŽ1ȿͳHampʫȁ-GHK˚amp1 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampǝamp0ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFͶ3ƈˬǝamp1ȲɶHG10)amp2008ƀ3 FITŨTHORNƔ2010ƀ 7DZǶ=-1Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 280MWŀdivideG (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ1D)mZ3ʱoumlȸ3ʢ 20AEligʬHG

x 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

ˮȲ 5 Roslashdsand IIȳͶoumlɯƯ4 2010ƀ 8DZ1ŐG

17

mZ4ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ƀșɶȔKŚ0EU 3˞Ȩ1DH5mZ4 2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯ-ʱSrYȸ3 30Kamp3˩ɩKʘŚ0H50E0EU-4szlig3divideɳĴ13aumlɣė˃SrY3ɶȔOacuteKƭGamp3˖uuml˩ɩ3AcircƭKʻyacutemacrFm

Z4 2010ƀ 6DZ1Ĵ3˖uuml˩ɩKɯ˘G3˩ɩ-42020ƀ=-1ˬOtildeşKʢ 4 GW$H1D)Ͷoumlɯ4 11000 GWh10GcurrenƦHG=ampʱş3 3ccedil3 1D7ouml3ʢ 50Kȳ1ˬʹGͶEƖGcurrenƦHG (Kemin 2010)(0gt12009ƀ3ɯouml4ʢ 6700 MWh-G2010 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3currenɂ4ěȚŵdivideɳĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010) ʁǴɶȔ2008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MW3divide0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ˬ

Otildeş 350 MW3ǝˬŚEHG3ɶȔOacute3Ąccedil4Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ1D)ƭA3-$H1D)ʦʏş4 175 MWŀdivideG10GĸǞ3˩ɩƎŬ42012ƀ=-1 350MW1divideş 150 MWKdivideGamp3˩ɩKˠŚ0H50E0 ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MWKdivideGʁǴɶȔ433ņˠȕ0ȳͶoumlɯƯ0J( Horns

Rev II209 MW2009ƀ 9DZŐͿRoslashdsand II207 MW2010ƀʈʓŶcurrenŚͿAnholt400 MW2012ƀ12DZʓŶcurrenŚͿ1DFƭHG˟gt-G

Ugrave 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

1761 2358 2464 2697 2708 2716 2720 2728 2717 2756 2985 2621

ȳ 11 50 50 210 423 423 423 423 423 423 856 1339

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 2-2 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

176 1 597 106 183 12 8 4 8 ndash11 39 ndash38 ndash135

ȳ 11 39 0 210 223 0 0 0 0 0 100 ndash14

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

212 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1iacuteŚHampaumlɣė˃SrYȰ1DFͶoumlɯaRZn3ǝamp0ĽiacuteƄŨTHORNHampǝamp03ͶoumlɯaRZnD7UoN13ȳaRZnĎȲ8-4HAszligːǨ

22000Ǩ1igraveG=-bjnźľEgraveȉ1divide 025mZZrkW0034kW ĎȲ9 0047okWͿ3ugraveƭNjAEligHGĎȲ10szligːǨ˫3Ǩ1igraveampƔ4źľEgraveȉKĖĕG10

G Ͷ1ť4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥƀǘ3Ǵ ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3˚ugraveƀ 0023mZ

ZrkW00037kW 0005okWͿ˚ugraveHG

ĎȲ8 UoNaRZn134ȳͶoumlɯƯ3THORNǸư4ecirc1ƈˬHGȳͶoumlɯƯ3aRZn

ŚʻHG13ȳͶoumlɯƯUoNɧ˻db1DFƈˬHG ĎȲ9 17353mZZr ĎȲ10 ɠ˖3Egraveȉ˚ugraveiacuteƄ4ͶoumlɯaRZn93ugraveƭK 1 kWampF 010mZZr0013Ϳamp

[1degJ)ŨTHORNHampA3-G

18

ˊɱ1mZ-4ͶszligːǨ- 22000Ǩ3ɯK˖147ƀE 10ƀGAring5 3 MWͶKˬʹGH5FIT4ș3D1ȪŚHGĎȲ11

3 MWͶszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 3000 kWh

3000 kWh times 22000 = 66 GWh FITʬ˺Ǚ˚ugrave43 MWͶ 66 GWhɯG=-3ǴǓƱJHG3Oacute4ș3D10G

(66 GWh times 025Zr) + (66 GWh times 0023Zr) = 18064200Zr

Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4ʽǹĀampͶKǑĐGǝˠ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1A

ɥHG3ͳ4ǑĐHampˬOtildeş3 2ETHKɣɤGamp3szligːǨ 12000Ǩ1ť 008mZZrkW001kW 00139okWͿ-GAring5 225 kW3ͶKTHORNǝˠ3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn1D)ǑĐGľĜˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugraveK˩ʙGsup23D10G

225 kW times 2ļszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 450 kWh

450 kWh times 12000 = 54 GW

ǑĐamp 225 kWͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4

54 GWh times 008Zr = 432000Zr 3˚ugraveɥHG34450 kWǵɄ3ͶKǑĐGľĜ1EHG3˚ugrave3ơƣKĖGamp

3ǝˠaRZn-ǑĐGͶ3ǘ1iacuteˬEHGJ-403˚ugraveɥHG34

450 kWǵɄ3ͶK˩ 175 MWKǑĐGľĜ1EHG szligːǨ1ļ+ FIT-4Ś3 kWh3ɯǨ-40ˊ1tzgɷƑņͶD

FAņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶ93ƷUacuteHGAring5 3 MW 3ɯȗ3szligːǨampFɯouml (kWh) 415 MWͶ3 2ETH-ƕ)ĖĕG˚ugrave3ͳAETH10G ș1ʆUgrave 2-3D7 2-44FITͶoumlaRZn1GͶ3Ƹ1ĒltƐKʆampA3-3

Aring4ś3aRZn1ļ+G

Ugrave 2-3 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITuh AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave[]psup312

ɯȗ3

ˠȕ

MWͿ

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ ouml

MWhͿ

Ͷ 1ļampF3aRZn]bn

(DKK)

oumlłͳ (DKK)

ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 223 098 30 90 90 7497 23430 5250 224 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 223 098 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 227 100

(Nielsen et al 2010)

ĎȲ11 3Aring4reg3Ĵ3ʒ14Ġ=H0ampmZZr-ĽġG ĎȲ12 ĝ

19

Ugrave 2-4 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITu AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave]

ɯȗ

^Pc(MW)

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ

ouml (MWh)

Ͷ 1ļampF3aR

Zn]bn

(DKK)

ouml łͳ(DKK)

˚ugrave

(DKK) ʱĔTHORN

(DKK) ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 1650 6610 298 100 30 90 90 7497 2343 5250 1650 6900 295 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 1650 8920 273 092 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 990 5220 281 094

(Nielsen et al 2010)

˫3AringEņĺ3gg1ƷGDFAņĺ3ɯȗ1ƷGǞszligːǨ1ļ+

FIT 3ơƣKĖBJGUgrave 2-3 1ʆHGD1ǰAʪȽucircɞ3ˍͶ4ņĺgKOtildeamp 18 MW3ȣɱũĺ3Ͷ-GH4szlig3Ͷ-Ś3ɯouml kWhKļ1ampľĜ3 FIT1AƎ4=GUgrave 2-4 EszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT E3divideɱĔTHORNƖEHB34gɷƑũtzfrac12 3 MW3ɯȗ-Fȣɱũĺ3ɯȗ4 3frac141ˑ(GJG

FIT3ļɆszligːǨKɥGjn4currenˠŚHampˬOtildeşKƭGamp1ˬʹHGͶ3ǘŪ00G-G=ampH1DFgɷƑtz3OacuteKGjnAŪ00G

HE 2 3ʹ˩ɩKʘŚaRZnKĸUcirc-ĖTHORNHAE1ĪͲ0GľĜGszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT 4mZ3ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ʁǴɱɶȔOacute)ampˬOtildeş1ļ+ǕʘɱɶȔOacuteƭHGD1Gamp3A3-G szligːǨK FIT 3ļɆG3mjn4˚ugrave1DFźľ3ȝgtɣ GampǰAʪȽɱucircɞ

3ˍͶƛAaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ1)ǰAͺoumlɱ0gw-400G-G

$3ampǰʨɱ14Ͷoumlɯreg3ɅDFA10F20mZ-43ƏƉ3 FIT AumlJHGampɯoumlKļɆampɶȔOacuteƭ1G]bn0Gʫȁ0G

22 NDQ+ 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-4mZ1G 2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKG-ɥampmg42008 ƀ1˩ɩG4śǟHampaRZn3ſĹOacute1ļ+A3-GͶ93Ʒ]bn4^Pn3Ǽacute1DFŚ-40mZ-4ɯ]bnȣɱŚGD-GˬOtildeş MWampF3Ʒ]bn14ǰņ- 503GeacuteƀƄ3ɯouml MWh ampFƷ]bn3Ńuumlɞ4 15ǵɄ-G

221 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para mZ3ͶoumlɯaRZ-n4ˊ1Ū0Ͷǘ3Έ12ļͿ3ͶʺKɥG˩ɩW

PoP-4Ū0A 3ļ3ͶKɷʳɛG4ʵB0ŔKNJD1=ʹGGH4ͶK 1 ļccedilǗɱ1ʹGˡˢɱĉƋ0GE-GmZ14ņˠȕQOoyM3AringGbPBʟĴņ0A3-40ǰņˠȕ3b4Ͷ 20ļKˬʹGʱş 63 MWͿ

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹŚȉş4 19 MW-F$3gɷƑ4 80 mtz4 72 m-G2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ-ǰAˊɱ034 23 MW3Ͷ-F$3tz4 80 mgɷƑ4 93 m-G

(b) BL0+Ouml mZ3Ͷğ4ˊ1˝ğ-GampͶ3^PnɡƦɱ034āȷȮų10G

20

ˊɱ1ͶɅ4ǾŪ00)GȮųĸŻ$3Ģ-4ƀſĹͶ 7 msKGH4 2 MWͶtz 80 mͿ1ļ1ťszligːǨʢ 2500Ǩ1ɸƎG(Danish Energy Agency 2010)2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3 2009ƀƄ3szligːǨ4ſĹ 2639Ǩ-)amp2009ƀ3mZ3ͶɅ4żƀ3 88-2008 ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3szligːǨ4szligˀɥƀǘſĹ-ʢ 3000 Ǩ10GcurrenƦHGɫƧszligːǨ3LJŚOacute4mZszligiquest3ͶɅl`1GA3-402008ƀ1ˬʹH2009ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+˩ʙampA3-G

(c) ccedil-1 2008ƀƄ3deg˘ɱ0aRZnƷ]bn141100kW1529okWͿE 1300kW1807

okWͿ=-F$3ſĹ4 1250 kW1738 okWͿ-GEgraveȉ4 2008 ƀ1xZ1ampƔ2009ƀ 2010ƀ1ņŽ1frac12GɚƙG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ1GͶ3ʰƾ4IgraveIcircɡ^wbŋʢĸdegĵĸʚɡ3 4 ɶ-ȒƭH

GHE3ɶ$HHͶoumlɯƯ3ɣȹʰƾ3ʢ 25KĈG2008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlɯaRZn1currenƦHGɣȹʰƾ412MWh17oMWhͿ-G (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m4ƀ|b3Ouml 80-K˺GaRZnKɥGmZ1GȤ

ƯDz3Ͷ4ˊ1ƎƅOgraveŋʢ1DFK˺Gegrave3ĔTHORNKƎƅOgraveŋʢ1Ʒ FͶ

3ƯDzʿ43ļKɷDžeumlɥG-0Ʒ1ťGeumlɊ93ǓaeligǓƱ4szligOumlȖʿ3Ƴ˴

ʻyacutemacrEHG mZ3ɡƦɱ0aRZn4100Ouml-K˺GaRZn-Gż3aRZ

n-4Ouml1DG˺3otildeĜʢ 800)GͶoumlɯaRZn1ťGOgraveTHORNĮĔǴĖTHORNHė˃034 15ƀsup2atilde-G

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(g) Q54Q1 mg4 Economy of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ1

ļ+A3-G

222 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

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OoyMɯ4ˊ1Ǖƃ3˴ėKƖEHG10G3˴ė4THORNǸʋKEHG

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ĎȲ13 Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark ĎȲ14 10ƀijŚEgraveȉKNjAEligGǝˠ3ɯAɰľG

21

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ņˠȕQOoyM1ťʢ 2700Έ3000kW3753Έ4170okWͿ-G ȳQOoyMKĴatilde3oumlʡʭȳŃĶˬOtilde1ʡGamp3]bn4mZ-4Ĵƺ

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bnAĴƺG

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(e) s_N3N9A ˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml3ijŚEgraveȉKĖĕ)

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=- 0034kWh0047okWhͿD7Ͷeumlɥ-Greg3˚ugraveKĖĕG

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22

Ugrave 2-5 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ16

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ17 ȳ

2008ƀĎȲ18 ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 23 23 23 Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 3 91 90 ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2700 4300 3865

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 25 25 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1250 2844 3000

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash (1738) (3953) (4170) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 12 (17) 20 (28) 18 (25) $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 3 (4) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆ Economics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010

Ugrave 2-6 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 50 55 45 Ƿeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 110 112 112 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 80 45 26 Ƿ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 20 66 74

WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 52 88 95 Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 13 10 13 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 25 25 25

FXn $US 139 139 139 FXn DKK ndashndashndash 7353 ndashndashndash 7353

ǛΆEconomics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aeligIacuteɥļ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ

Ugrave 2-7 NDQ+uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

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˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

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ǛΆNielsen et al 2010 Danish Energy Agency 2008 Danish Energy Agency 2009 ĎȲ16 2007ƀ14mZ-ǝamp1ƈˬHampͶ40)amp ĎȲ17 2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ȳ1Ͷ4ƈˬH0)ampȳQOoyM 3ƈˬG4˩ɩȠ1)amp

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23

223 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

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x 2-2 NDQ+rmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup319

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Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

24

x 2-3 NDQ+eumlEuml-1-1iumleGK

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G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ3ʰƾ4Ńuuml133gt˘ʆHG2009ƀD7 2010ƀ3yumlƽɱʃʐ (Nelson

et al 2010) 1DH52008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶ3ʰƾ4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥǴszligiquest- 12MWh17oMWhͿ10Gʰƾ1D)mZ3aRZn3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 1MWh1oMWhͿfrac120)G

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$3ȟAacuteEgraveOacute3ǰņ 25=-ƀ1ȿEgraveUgraveČHH1DFͶoumlɯsup2ń3SrYǕʘ3]bn4ʳƏɱ1frac12G3frac12ɞ4˩ʙ0

224 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj˩ʙ1DFmZ3ĔTHORNŃǘKͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘȣ

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LCOE K3D1ȒƭGKʆG61 MWh85 oMWhͿ3(ʢ 43 MWh

25

60oMWhͿKĔTHORNɅoumlłͿ-24MWh33oMWhͿKaRZn3ˀɥǴ3FIT˚ugraveƏ-3PdlOz-ȣɞ-˧5mZ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 2KĔTHORN3Ȓƭ˞ʥ-ȟF3 3ccedil3 1K FIT-10G

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23 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+

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yacuteYj4ěĴ LCOE3ŸBBɮ0GľĜAG

26

Ugrave 2-8 2007 2008NDQ+uumljfrac14divide LCOEpsup321

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave

(LCOE) euroMWh

($MWh) ndashndashndash 61 (85)

70 (97)

81 (113)

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) 67

(93) 79

(110)

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euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash6

(ndash8) 3

(4) 2

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rOtildemiddot

Danish Wind Industry Association httpwindpowerorgenknowledgestatisticsthe_danish_markethtml September 2010 (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)

Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2007 2008 (Danish Energy Agency 2008) Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2008 2009 (Danish Energy Agency 2009)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Ministry of Climate and Energy National handlingsplan for vedvarende energi i Danmark 2010 (In English National Action

ĎȲ21 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampĔɲʱͳͶoumlɯǕʘͽPdlO

zD7yacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜAG

27

Plan for RE in Denmark) (Kemin 2010)

Nielsen et al Economy of Wind Turbines 2010 EUDP (Nielsen et al 2010) (Original title Vindmoslashllers Oslashkonomi)

Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark (Saabye 2003)

28

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31 lt8uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

311 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

oPk1GͶoumlɯɯ4 1990ƀdegeacuteͰ1ŐHamp$Hsup2ǽͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4 239 GWsup210)ampƀŨTHORNş4 2002ƀ1 32 GW1ampƔJ1ȿŪampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4 2012ƀ=-1Ĝ˩- 306 GW 1ǤG˟=HG2012 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3Ĵecircaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010)

2009ƀȳQOoyM3ʖ 1Ě0)amp Alpha VentusʓŶampH1DFȳ3ɯŧǽŐ=GA3ǴƒHGoPkǕƃ4 2015ƀǶ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʢ 25 GW1GɶȔKɯ˘G

x 3Ă1 lt8uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

2000 ƀoPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4Ĵatildeʱɯouml3 16KĈsup2ǽ3otildeĜ4ņŽ1Ǥ8ƀƔ14 620)GcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3ŀdivideoPkǕƃ1DGɺSrY3ĕFʩgtKʾƬG3otildeĜ4notƔAǤKʯGcurrenƦHGUgrave 3-1 4oPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ĐD7ŧǽ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 3-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀşdivideKʆampA3-G

29

Ugrave 3-1 lt8IacuteAtildeTHORNOacuteeth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

44 61 88 120 146 166 184 206 222 239 306 358

ȳ 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 100

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 3-2 lt8oacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

44 17 27 32 26 20 18 22 17 17 14 03

ȳ 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 04 17

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

312 s_CcedilN3N9A

oPk3Ͷoumlɯ42000ƀEaumlɣė˃SrYȰ (EEG) 1D)ǓǎHG3ȰƓ4 2004ƀ 2008ƀ1ǔ˨HGsup21 EEG3ȑ˞K˷ǥěǔ˨ɘ3atildeşKʞć1G

(a) copyUacute EEG 4D7ȳͶoumlɯKĠszlig3aumlɣė˃SrYɅ3ǓǎKˠiacuteGȰƓ-GɣɤH

ampSrY4ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFłHG FIT 4 2 3Ƞfrac12ͳ3ļǷǛǞƉͳ3ĽŌǞƉͿ-ȒƭHGotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ɥǴ

4aRZn^Pn3Ɵ1ŷęHGͶ3ʍ͵ecirc1ƀɯouml3đɔOacuteȪ=)ampđɔ^Pn1

đɔ˩ʙampOacuteĎȲ22Ϳɯ˘HG ɥŐE 5ƀƔ13đɔ^Pn3OacuteKͶaRZn^Pn-ś1ɯampOacuteȣG3aRZn^Pn3ɯoumlđɔĸ3ɯouml3 150KĮ)ampľĜ$3otildeĜ 0751otildeŀĕEgraveȉɥHGǴ 2 DZ1ƇHG3aRZnK EEG3ɥťG14$3ƀɯoumlđɔ^Pn3ɯouml3 60ͼsup210E0H50E0 ȳaRZn3ĕiacuteƄAĝ 2Ƞ10)FĕEgraveȉKŪ0A 12ƀĖĕG-

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(b) EEG2004 Ͷoumlɯ3ļǷǛ4 55MWh76oMWhͿotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 87MWh121oMWhͿ

HampEEG20043Ȃʩgtatilde-4(E3ǛAƀ 2frac120Fǝamp1ɯHG^Pn3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ɥǴ4˫3shyʩgt1ļ+ȪŚHGǠœ^PnKˬOtildeǭǝGaRZn-4ś3

ɯoumlđɔ^Pn3ɯouml3 150KĮGD13Ǵ4 060ͼ1ʮʯHG ȳͶoumlɯ3ļǷĕEgraveȉ4 62MWh86oMWhͿotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 91MWh127oMWhͿ

Hampȳɯ3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4˫3 EEG3shyʩgt1ļ+ȪŚHamp

(c) EEG2009 2009 ƀ3 EEG -4Ͷoumlɯ3ļǷĕǛ 502 MWh698 oMWhͿotildeŀĕEgraveȉ 92

ĎȲ22 oPk3đɔ^Pn4ǷĽġǮ-ɥampđɔb133-401ȲƧ

30

MWh128oMWhͿ1ǔ˨Hamp(E3ĕͳAQOoyM3ƈˬƀEƀɞ 1-frac12ƕ) 2009 ƀ3ƈˬaRZnĖĕGotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 92 MWh128 oMWhͿ10G2010ƀ3ƈˬaRZn-4 91MWh126oMWhͿ10GǠœ^PnˬOtildeǭǝaRZn-H5E1 5MWh5oMWhͿ3otildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideʙHGͶoumlʡʭ3^nAring5Ģȱǘ˺ǙͿ-GľĜ42014ƀ=-1ˬʹHGǝˠaRZnĝ 5MWh7oMWhͿ3ĽotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ť0GͶ 2010ƀ=-1ǰĀHampľĜǠœ3aRZn1ťG3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 7MWh10oMWhͿ1ŀdivideG ȳQOoyM14 35 MWh49 oMWhͿ3ļǷĕEgraveȉɥHGȳQOoyM

3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 130MWh181oMWhͿ-H 12ƀǓƱJHG2016ƀDFntilde1ƈˬHampaRZn-H5E1 2 MWh3 oMWhͿ3otildeŀĕEgraveȉǓƱJHG10GotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ǴƇ4 EEG3ˊɱ0shyʩgt1Ɇ G

32 lt8VUgravefrac12oumlRPacuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+

321 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

oPk1GͶoumlɯaRZn3^Pn3Ͷȯ4˒ɮ0GͶȯ3D^Pn4āȷun

ȷȮų-GĆ3^PnͶȯfrac12G0^Pn4oPkĆ1Gsup21 2007ƀ3deg˘ɱ0oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn1GH4ĝƀƄ1ɯHampſĹɱ0^Pnȣ

ōͶȯ3^Pn1ʑĸGaRZn-G3^Pn3szligːǨ4 2260ǨʋƄ10GcurrenƦHG

(a) BL0+para 2007ƀ 2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹŚȉaeligouml4ʢ 2 MW-Fʢ 653Ͷ 2 MW(C3Śȉ

aeligouml-)amp2007ƀ 2008ƀ1oPk-QOoyMƈˬ1ampĸĻ4ȣɱŪ0$3ampͶ3ǘŪ0ũˠȕ3QOoyMŅǘƈˬHG10)amp2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ˬ ʹHampǰ

ņˠȕ3QOoyM3Śȉaeligouml4 30 MW-FͶćɜ-ˬʹHGbrvbarAringż1Ņ)ampͶ 5ļ-ȒƭHGQOoyMKmbamp ƀ4oPkĆ3^Pn-ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯEHGHE3^Pn4oPk3đɔ

SNȣͶȯoslash)GampoPk3đɔSN3 903Ͷȯ3ľƯKaRZn^Pn1L-G

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4ŚȉaeligoumlͶ3gɷƑtz0E71Ͷ3ˊɱ0ˬ˩]dnŚȉaeligouml

gɷƑ3ȣɞͿ1D)ɮ0GoPk3ͶoumlaRZn3Ͷ4Śȉaeligouml 2 MWtz 100mgɷƑ 75 m-G2007ƀ1G3Ͷ93Ʒʱͳ4 1259kW1750okWͿ-H14ļʅʡʭʡ)ampdivideɱƷ]bnĠ=Hamp2008 ƀ4EgraveȉǤ3ampHĝ Ͷ93Ʒ]bn 1100kW1529okWͿEʢ 13701ŀdivideamp

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ14Ͷ3˛Ȑʿ$3reg3ʖʿ^wbNjAEligȐʿ3Igraveŗʚɡ]bnńŦŞ1DGŚǴɱ

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ʰƾ4 2007ƀ1 4571kW635okWͿ-2008ƀ4 4633kW644okWͿ-)amp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m1LǷɞ4 30Oumlɞ4 70)ampźɨǻ3đdivide4ƦŚ0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ

Oumleumlɲɞ4$HH 9555-)ampUacuteɱ0 FIT 1D)ʡʭ93NZdbIgrave˯HF=amp FITE3ŚͳǓƱAIgrave˯HGampĔTHORN3bZ˰Egravefrac120F$3ʫȁeumlAfrac120)G

31

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ĔTHORN4SrY3 FITD7GǛEƖEHG2007ƀ1ƈˬHampaRZn3ĽŌ4 819

MWh11384 oMWhͿ-ļǷǛ4 518 MWh72 oMWhͿ-GaRZn^Pn31ļ+3ĽŌiacuteƄ4 183ƀɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 mg4 EEG (2004) DEWI Magazine Nos 32 (2008) and 34 (2009) D7 Deutsche WindGuard GmbH ZSW3

amp1Acircƭamp EEG(2008)3Ɔț1GʉŕɱĽġǮEƖampȰlaquoʌ3Oacute4 Destatis (2009)1ļ+

322 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

sup23ƥĽ42008ƀsup21ƈˬHGcurrenŚ3ȳQOoyM1ļ+A3-G

(a) BL0+para ȳaRZn1DFȳ1ˬʹampͶ 12ļ3ˬOtildeşEʦ˩- 60 MWKɯ-GƦŚ

G3aRZn^Pn4 Borkum1G East FrisianŴ3ʢ 40 kmȫĜ3āȷ1frac14ʹȦȻʢ 30 m-G3ȷųE3ȦȻ3ʪȽɱEacuteɲKƖGamp14Śȉaeligoumlʢ 5 MW3ȳͶƛ˞10G3^Pn3szligːǨ4 3700Ǩ10GcurrenƦHG

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3ȳQOoyMKEHampľƯ1D7ȻȦĻ1ƈˬGamp3Ʒ]bn4ɪ

ſĹDFA3230kW 4490okWͿ3]bn3atildeˮ4ͶļʅŃƯzʗ-Gʡʭ93ʡ4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿ3micro-GampaRZn3Ʒ]bn14ʡʭ93

ʡ]bn4Ġ=H0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳͶoumlɯ3ʰƾ43ʰƾDFA˒0)GȷųEHG-

ǷĵEȳ3Ͷ=-3əlaquoħ3]bn0GE1ʰƾ14atildeD7ń3bgj

y3laquoacuteD7ƛ˞0ˡŤBIgraveʪȽʚɡBƴ˗ʚɡˌˋordf3ɴˡ)amp]bnĠ=HGoP

k3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ƀʰƾ4123kW171okWͿ10GcurrenƦHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȳ3aRZn3ƷŞ143ľĜDFAeumlɲɞƛ˞10Gȳ3Ƿeumlɲɞ12ͿA

Oumleumlɲɞ65ͿA3ľĜDFA0GOumlǷȣɞ7ť 3Ϳ4ƦŚHampaRZnȣŚ-Gś14aRZn3˺Ȓ1D)Ū)GAring5aRZnˇ

iquest-G4ub`n1DF˺G0Ϳė˃ƟAG

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ȳͶoumlɯ3ouml4EEG3 FIT1D)ƱƮHGƦŚampm1˧5EEG20041ļ+

otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 91 MWh127 oMWhļǷǛ4 619 MWh860 oMWhͿ-G3ampotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4ȷųE3aRZn^Pn30E71ȦȻ1ļ+ 145 ƀǓƱJHG10G

(f) Q54Q1 mg4 EEG(2004)D7 Deutsche WindGuard GmbH ZSW3amp1Acircƭamp EEG(2008) Ɔț1Gʉŕ

ɱĽġǮ1ļ+

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 3-354sup21G LCOEccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacuteK˘

32

Ugrave 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 2 2 NA 5 Ͷļǘ ļ 5 5 NA 12 ɯ szligːǨ 2260 2260 NA 3700

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA 20 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1259 (1750) 1373 (1908) NA 3230 (4490)

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 4571 (635) 4633 (644) NA 123 (171) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 149 (207) 152 (211) NA ndashndashndash $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

Ugrave 3-4 lt8uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 55 55 NA 65

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 95 95 NA 120 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 70 70 NA 70

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 30 30 NA 30 WACC ͼ 56 56 NA 68

Ǵ ƀ 13 13 NA 15 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 298 298 NA 298

FXn $US 139 139 NA 139

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard Destatis

Ugrave 3-5 lt8uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 79 (110) 78 (108) NA 84 (117) FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA 20

ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ

ƀ NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 16 16 NA 16 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

323 lt8oumlRBL0+yuml2008ĀrmicroQ1-1plusmnecirc

x 3-2EoPk3 LCOE85MWh 118oMWhͿǷĽġǮ-Yacute1ampđɔbDFA˒ccedilG$3ɡɦKsup21IJʆG

33

x 3-2 lt8uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup323

324 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) BL0+dj LCOE 3KAampEG34aRZn3śʷ-GʾEHGđɔb3ş

4ƀszligːǨ 2630ǨoPk3ļǷaRZn3szligːǨ4ƀ 2260Ǩ$HDFA4G1frac12

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4 1373 kW1908o kWͿ-đɔbDFA 76

kW106okWͿfrac12)ampLCOE1˧5H4ʢ 3MWh4oMWhͿȿ1ɸƎG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAʢ 7MWh10oMWhͿH

4ŚǴɏȏ3śǟQOoyMũˠȕ01DGcurrenOtildeĦ3Igraveʚ]bn3Ǥ)ampɡɦ1DG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 oPk3aRZnđɔb3Ÿɮ4ʢ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-H4˺Ȓ

31įG

(e) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4ƦŚ0

325 s_F(=2E

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯ14EEG1ļ+ FITɥHGoPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn EEG2004G4 EEG20093-ƲJHGF$Hsup2ń3ĔTHORN4˟=H0E1oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎGamp3reg3PdlOzKŨTHORNG4ƧIJHE$3currenƦA0

ĎȲ23 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4ĭǂcopyTHORN3ampđɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3

Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

34

x 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup324

326 aringmH7B

x 3-31ʆampD15MWh7oMWhͿ3yacuteYjɣ FH4szligːǨʰƾ3Ÿɮ1DGA3-G

33

-LoPk3QOoyM3Aring4Śȉaeligouml 2MW3Ͷ 5ļ-ȒƭHGaRZn3szligːǨ42260ǨƦŚG3m3ƦŚ1ļ+LCOE485MWh118oMWhͿLJŚHampNjAEligHamp FIT1DFaRZnɯǨȐʿ3yacuteYjampFʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ10GǛ3Oacute4 EEG-ˠŚHG

Ugrave 3-6 lt8Iumlsectpsup325

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

85 (118) NA 135

(188) ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

79 (110) NA 84

(117)

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

5 (7) NA 46

(64)

rOtildemiddot

BMU Leitszenarion 2009 ndash Bundesministerium fuumlr Umwelt Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit Langfristszenarien und Strategien fuumlr den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland ndash Leitszenario 2009 (2009)

Destatis Statistisches Bundesamt wwwdestatisde (last access December 2009) ĎȲ24 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAG ĎȲ25 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

35

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 32 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122007 (2008)

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 34 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122008 (2009)

Deutsche WindGuard Deutsche WindGuard GmbH on behalf o Zentrum fuumlr Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Wuumlrttemberg (ZSW) Vorbereitung und Begleitung bei der Erstellung eines Erfahrungsberichtes gemaumlszlig sect 20 EEG (2008)

EEG 2004 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich (2004)

EEG 2009 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich und zur Aumlnderung damit zusammenhaumlngender Vorschriften (2008)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

36

Aring 4Auml JN6

41 JN6uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

411 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬʹş42000ƀ3 447 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 2121 MW1ŀdivide3( 228 MWȳͶoumlɯ3ş0)GͶoumlɯ1DGƀ3ɯouml42000ƀ3 08 TWhE 2008ƀ3 43 TWh1ŀdivideGǞ2008ƀ3Uh3ʱȸouml4 119 TWh-)ampͶoumlɯ3ʁǴɶȔ42008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 2000 MWdivideG-G3ɶȔ3ƭ1DFˬʹȽgtG4ƈˬ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʱş4ʢ 4000 MW10G2009ƀ14950 MW3ȳͶoumlɯ3THORNǸŐHGȳͶoumlɯ3ɶȔOacute42020 ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 6000 MW 1G-Graquo EU 3aumlɣė˃SrYƿplusmn3ʻyacuteKɄGamp34 2020ƀ=-3ɶȔOacute45178 MW-G x 4-1 D7Ugrave 4-1 4-2 4D7ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71ěƀƄ3

ʁǴɱD7ǴɱɶȔOacute3currenɂ-Gszlig3şmg4ěƀǶ3mg-Gɏ1ɫƧ-GU

h4ǠœͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ14ɶȔOacuteKŚ0

x 4-1 JN6uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 and Rijksoverheid 2010

2000ƀ3ƀŨTHORNş4ĝƀǶ3ʦʏˬOtildeşĝ ş1ˬŚHampUgrave 4-21ʆȜģƀŨTHORNş4

ǑĐampͶoumlɯaRZn3ȜģˬOtildeşKĠL-GUgrave 4-2 1ʆamp2009 ƀE 2012 ƀ=- 2012ƀE 2020ƀ=-3ěǴ3ȜģƀŨTHORNş4ě3Ǵ3ſĹƀŨTHORNşKʆGsup23˘1ʆˬOtildeş4UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ1ļ+ˬOtildeş3currenɂ-GRijksoverheid 2010Ϳ

37

Ugrave 4-1 JN6IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0447 0485 0672 0905 1075 1224 1453 1641 1921 2727 6000

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0108 0228 0228 5178

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 andRijksoverheid 2010

Ugrave 4-2 JN6regwoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0038 0038 0187 0233 0170 0149 0229 0188 0280 0202 0409

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0 0 0 0619

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010Rijksoverheid 2010

412 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1ǝamp0 FIT ĽŌ˩ɩ-G SDE ˮȲ 7ŨTHORNHamp3 SDE bX3-Ͷoumlɯ3ś3ɯ]bn1˟ĜotildeŀĕEgraveȉoumlčEgraveȉ1divideǓƱJHGE1aumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗93Ʒ

1fynʌiacuteUacuteLjʹKɥGjnSDEotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3Ȃʩgtatilde-ȏ˪HG

42 JN6VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-Uh3deg˘ɱ0D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZnK˷ǥG

421 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh4 2003ƀ1szligːǨ|b-ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎG FITiacuteƄKŨTHORNamp2006ƀ=-4

szligːǨ 18000 Ǩ=-3aRZn1ťǰ- 10 ƀ FIT NjAEligHamp2008 ƀE3 FIT 1DGǓǎ4szligːǨ 2200 Ǩsup23aRZn1ť˖JHG10)ampſĹszligːǨ4ƀʢ2000Ǩ-$3ˊɱ0ʜı4ƀ 16002800Ǩ-G Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4FITǓǎ3˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZnKʆGĎȲ263

aRZn-4$3Pq`NlOz3ņĄǕɱ1ś˖ė˃0]bn3|KˬŚGdeg˘ɱ0

34 15 MW3ũˠȕQOoyM-ͶoumlɯaRZn3ņĄ 23 MW3ͶgɷƑ 90 mtz 60Έ80 mͿKAuml)G3ĸĻ-4iacuteˬEHFHE3ĸĻ-4tz 4060 m3 450800 kWͶˊɱ-G

(b) ccedil-1 aRZn3deg˘ɱ0Ʒ]bn4 1000kW1390okWͿE 1600kW2224okWͿ

=-Fˊ1Ʒ]bnszligːǨAŅ0)G

ˮȲ 7 SDE (stimulering duurzame energie) UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrYD7ɖAtildeʬ1GǓǎbX ĎȲ26 đɔaRZn134Ƿccedilǿ-ɥampđɔb13KƿA3-401ȲƧ

38

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3atildeˮ4ɯouml1D)ŃuumlGA3 9Έ12 kWh13Έ17 okWhͿż4ɥ

ŐE 5ƀ3^wbŋʢ1DGͿˬOtildeş1D)ŃuumlGA3 25kW35okWͿĸdegʡʭʡ]bnKĠͿ-GƔʿ3Oacute4aRZn1D)˒ɮ0Gś3ʰƾ4ƀ 23otildeĜ-ŀdivideGƦŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷKēǧampƀ|b3Ouml 80-˺GaR

ZnKɥG˚ugrave3NjAEligʿ-GͿǕƃ4ˇŹǷɞ 15D7Oumlɞ 6ͼKȜƦŚGoumlmiddotʇ4ub`n1ļ+˺K˖)GȰlaquoʌ4 255ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A 0ĔTHORNɅ4Yacuteəźľ-3Ǵŋʢ1DGoumlł-FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ1D)yacuteYj

K)Gyumlƽɱ0dividePdlOzfynSrYƷotildeƊ1D)NjAEligHG

3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4˹ʌė˃0ĔTHORNɅKƾamp0ɯbrvbarȐʿKĠ==0brvbarȐiquest1ɥHF1

43iacuteƄ1DFƯƖʌ 421ťeumlɲKƖGɯbrvbarȐʿAG

(f) Q54Q1 -ɥampmg4Uh3 FIT otildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3˩ʙ-ɥampđɔaRZn3agrave˘mg-

G (Lensink et al 2009 Cleijne et al 2010)

422 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh3ȳͶoumlaRZn-4ƈˬ˴ėKƖǰņ 50 m2ˠȕ3QOoyMKƈˬG-

Gƕ)deg˘ɱ0ȳaRZn3ˬOtildeş4 100Έ300 MW-Fʡʭ1NjAEligHGȜģɯouml4szligːǨ 3300Έ4000ǨɸƎ-G2008ƀ1 Prinses AmaliaQOoyMřƭamp1ʆmg14$3]bnȒ4ƛAĠ=H0

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4 2500Έ3500kW3475Έ4865okWͿ-G2008ƀ1řƭampaRZn4$

3ǘƀntilde1Famp˴ė3iacuteǼacute3ampȣɱũĺ3 V90ĺ 2 MWͶKɥG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ɥbrvbarȐʿ3ɥśʷ3Ū01DFʰƾ14ņ0ʄśƟœķGƀʰƾ4 90

kW125okWͿLJŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZn|b3˺ȒKɥF$3Ouml3otildeĜ4 50-GPrinces

AmaliaQOoyM3˺4aRZnȢ1˖)GWACC3ƦŚOacute4ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3Ƿ]bn3ordmOacute-H4 NuonShellƯDzG OWEZecirc3Ǡœ3ȳQOoyM1ɥEHampOacute-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A Ǡœ3QOoyM4Ǣ MEP˩ɩ1ļ+˚ugraveKĖF97MWh135oMWhͿ3ijŚ

FITĽŌKƖampfynPdlOz3˚ugraveɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 3mg4Ľɯ˘$3reg3agraveɱ1eumlɥ-GƥĽ1ļ+A3-ƥĽ1ŸɮGľĜ4ʆHamp

ƥĽ1ļ+m[-˚)G

39

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘1ěƀ1ƦŚampD7ȳͶoumlɯ3OacuteKʆ2007ƀ3aRZn]bn4 2008ƀǨ

ɏ3n1G-ʆGUgrave 4-5 3ouml3źľEgraveȉ14ĕƊ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnǴŋʢ3otildeƊɞĠ=HG

Ugrave 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 1 15 120 NA Ͷļǘ ļ 1 5 60 NA ɯ szligːǨ 2000 2200 3350 NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 15 NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1120 (1557) 1325 (1842) 3315 (4608) NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 40 (56) 24 (33) 92 (128) NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) NA NA NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

Ugrave 4-4 JN6uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 5 5 5 NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 15 15 12 NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 50 NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 50 NA WACC ͼ 60 60 79 NA

Ǵ ƀ 10 15 10 NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 255 255 255 NA

FXn $US 139 139 139 NA

Ugrave 4-5 JN6uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (81) 56 (78) 59 (82) NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 663 (922) 28 (39) 97 (135) NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ 37 20 44 NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

43 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ƛ˞0˴ėKƖG3ampogP0)

G

40

431 JN6uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 4-2 JN6rmicroQ1plusmnecircxpsup327

(b) BL0+dj Uh3Ͷ3ːɞ4ʢ 25-FszligːǨ 2200 ǨͿđɔb3 30DFAfrac12FIT 1DG

˚ugrave4szligːǨ 2200 ǨKGG4 SDE ˠiacute3˳ʧKʾƬ$HDFAfrac12ˬŚHGͿamp2200ǨDFAŅɯGamp3PdlOz4ŚHGE1˞0˞į4B4FͶȯ-G

432 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4Đ3ĪͲ1EcircGė˃ƟGszligːǨ 2200Ǩsup2KɯGPdl

Oz4ŚHGͶ3ˬ˩$HHBBɮ0)Fƕ)EgraveȉŘ0Gė˃Ɵ4ǃ-0

Aring5ĝ ɯȗKAuml)AgzoũľĜƷ]bnfrac12szligːǨŀdivideG

(b) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ0)Gį4ĸdeg3-Fƀʢ 10kW15okWͿ-G

(c) ccedilntildeacirciacute-113T-1 đɔbȣGUh3Ͷoumlɯ4Ȱlaquoʌȣɱfrac12 (255ͼ) eumlɏAGǑĐ]bn

4ʾƬ0

433 s_F(=2E

Uh3ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ43ʍ͵3PdlOziacuteƄ3ơƣKĖG-G$30A34 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ-2007 ƀ=-1HK˞ȨampaRZn1ťMEP ˮȲ 81DF 10 ƀijŚotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligH2008 ƀsup21HK˞ȨampaRZn3ľĜ4SDE 1DF 15 ƀŃuumlotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligHG3 FITiacuteƄ1divideaRZn3ľĜ4ǰņƷ]bn 600kW834okWͿ1ťƷ]bn3 443ʌdž3Ʒ˚ugrave (EIA) D7otildeƊɞ 13fynKeumlɥG

ĎȲ27 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ ˮȲ 8 MEP (Milieukwaliteit Elektriciteitsproductie) Uh3oumlɣɤ1GȰƓ

41

-G

x 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup328

434 aringmH7B

Uh3yacuteYj42007 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn1˧5Ugrave 4-6 đɔͿʢ ndash36 MWhndash50oMWhͿPpb3Oacute10)GH4Đ3MEP3 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3ˬ˩3Ș1DGA3-˚ugraveͳ3ļɵ0)ampoumlEgraveȉK 2Έ3 MWh3Έ4 oMWhͿfrac12ƦŚamp1DGoumlEgraveȉ 6~8 MWh 1ǤG1HŪ0AoumlEgraveȉ4ͶoumlaRZn4ż1ͺoumlɱ0A310)ampƔʮiacuteƄ-G SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ1ļ+ 2008 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn143ȘĕFHyacuteYj4 ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿBBPpb3Oacute10)GěʍaRZn3ɯ]bn3Ž4ndash3 DFA4G1ņɏ1ȲƧG3ampndash3MWh4oMWhͿPpb3Oacute4eKņĮGA3-40 ȳͶoumlɯ3b3yacuteY4Ɗʯ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-)ampH4ɷDžƖampyacuteƥ

Ľ1ļ+A3-40Princes AmaliaQOoyM3Ȫʙ1İɣ amp4ǥE-G

44

Uh4ŧǽ1A 2020ƀ1AD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Dzdz0ɶȔOacuteKŚGɠķ3 SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ4HKśɠGamp3ǰA˞0k-G43 Eacute3ccedilǿʫȁEUh3brvbarAring1GyacuteYj4ʹ˒-40JG ugraveKƖampɯouml4szligːǨ 2200Ǩ=-1iacuteHG3ǘOacute4Uh3Ͷȯ1ċampA3-G2200Ǩsup23ɯ1ťGPdlOz4ŚHFHAƷ]bnfrac123į-Gė˃ƟGʰƾ4ĸdeg3ampȣɱ

0)G

ĎȲ28 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

42

Ugrave 4-6 JN6Iumlsectpsup329

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

91 (126)

94 (131)

166 (231) NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

127 (177)

96 (133)

161 (224) NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash36 (-50)

ndash3 (-4)

5 (7) NA

rOtildemiddot

Cleijne JW SM Lensink and CJ Faasen (2010) SDE Wind op land met vollasturen en differentiatie [SDE wind onshore with full load hours and differentation] ECN-E--10-001 Petten January 2010

Lensink SM JW Cleijne M Mozaffarian AE Pfeiffer S L Luxembourg and GJ Stienstra (2009) Eindadvies basisbedragen 2010 [Final advice SDE premium base rates 2010] ECNKEMA ECN-E--09-058 Petten November 2009

Rijksoverheid (2010) Nationaal actieplan voor energie uit hernieuwbare bronnen Richtlijn 200928EG [National Renewable Energy Action Plan Directive 200928EG] Den Haag June 2010

Statistics Netherlands (2010) online databank httpstatlinecbsnl VoorburgHeerlen August 2010

ĎȲ29 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

43

Aring 5Auml 1CN

51 1CNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bP3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯŮ1G=ampɚŚ3 EU 3ɶȔ1ļ+ CO2ǃaeligethȿ3amp

1 2020 ƀ 2030 ƀ1ƦŚHGɶȔOacuteKʆE1ˠiacute3ȂʩgtK˷ǥGraquo$30Ȓƭ˞ʥK˟ɷordfȾoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3]bn3ƐKŪ0Gamp1ɠķ˖JHGͿ E1 2008ƀ1GbPźľ3deg˘ɱ0QOoyM3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) K˷ǥ$3sup3

ŚKregĴ1GͶoumlɯ3]bnȣG

511 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac12frac34laquo

2009ƀǶǨɏ-Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4 19149 MW1bP3oumlʡʭ1 3ɭɶ1ņ0Ʌ0)GbP3Ͷoumlɯɯ4 90ƀdegĄ51Ő=F2001ƀsup24ǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşƀſĹ-ʢ 1800MWdivideHampˠiacuteǔȜHamp 2004ƀ 2007ƀ14Ĵɟplusmn 4362004D7 6612006Ϳ3şņŽ1ŀdivideamp3ˠiacute3ǔȜ1DF$HKeumlɥampǝˠaRZn3ʑ(EumlHamp

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯouml42009ƀ3bP3SrYʱ˞3ʢ 14KĈG x 5-14ŅĴȣ3ťƀ-G 2008ƀ=-1bP1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3H=-3ʦʏˬOtildeş

ƀŨTHORNşKʆG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3mg4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3SrY˖uuml˩ɩNREAPͿ1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)2020ƀ3currenɂ4SrY˞3 20Kaumlɣė˃SrY- EU3ɶȔƭ1ğampǘOacute-G

x 5-1 1CNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

x 5-1 4bP-H=-1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşD7notƔˬʹHG˟=HGˬOtildeşKʆG=ampƀŨTHORNşKx 5-21ʆ2009ƀbPǕƃ4 2010ƀE 2012ƀ=-3ěƀ1ˬʹG MWşKiacuteGamp3otildeƎKŚG1amp=ampoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3ƐKȿ Gamp3˩ɩKnotƔ3Ȱplusmn1ʩgtL-ɯ˘ampszlig3aumlɣė˃SrY]aRr`3

Ĝ˩ş 6000 MW4ʱoumlĕƊ3 25KĈH4ʪȽĊȗ-4ɚ1]bn-GͿ

44

bP1GȳͶoumlɯ30Ł4ņȍ0-F3ampȮų3ȦȻ 50m 10)Gƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ-4ͳ0ļʅ˞0F$3ampHE3aRZn3ś˖ė˃Ɵ4iacute

HGE1aacuteʡɏ-4ȺĀŇɓWbļĸ1ˬʹHG]uPo^PZWbgw3

ɯ1DG~nrjZœķGampNZdbşEHampA310)G

Ugrave 5-1 1CNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

16 22 34 49 62 85 100 116 151 167 23 35

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 5-2 1CNoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

16 06 12 15 13 23 15 16 35 16 15 14

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

512 s_CcedilN3N9A

Ȱɱ1currenƦHGEacuteɲKĖGamp14ͶoumlɯaRZnKɚecirc3iacuteƄ131ccedil͵Gƛ˞G

ʟĴ3ȉ˴ŚiacuteƄĝȓͿH4ͶoumlɯaRZnʡʭ1UacuteYacuteDžʯ-GũłbrvbarȐʿAacuteocircouml

KĕE250E0Ϳamp=ampEgraveȉˠiacuteHGamp-GĴɟƿplusmn 6612007-˘ǥHampD1Ͷoumlɯ3ǓƱbX14ˠiacuteǛbXźľĎɡ3 2G

ˠiacuteǛbX4QOoyMƯDzʿƸampǴ1GͶoumlɯ3ʻyacuteɱ0ijŚĕƊ

Egraveȉ-Gx 5-23ǘOacuteͿ ǰʨɱ0Egraveȉ 1Ǩ3ɪEgraveȉoumlPdlOz1ļ+oumlčźľEgraveȉ3ʩgtĜJ-Ȫ=GI3źľĎɡ4ĽŌ13AĤ5HGƕ)ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿĖĕGǛ4

Egraveȉ1ŷęHG10F3Egraveȉż1frac12ľĜ4ǰfrac12Egraveȉsup2-H5ˬ

EHGx 5-34ˠiacuteǛ3đɔOacuteKʆG

x 5-2 Ucircgntilde1)QEAcirc ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

45

ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ4ntildeǡźľ3ɯ˩ɩKNjaeligcurrenɂKɥ3˩ɩś3ɯouml3currenɂ˶ŸKȿE

D1GE1==0ĸĻ1ƈˬHampQOoyMɸuml1˚Ugrave-˶ŸKŪ0Gamp

1==0aRZn[ĀHG3`bl1DFN``bl3ȴɥ

ʬ˺ǙKǰĀG-$3]bn34ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿǓƱ)G2008 ƀ4ʢ 15 MWh205oMWhͿ-)amp ˫3Oacute4Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120071D)ȸʿEgraveȉƿǘ (CPI) 1ļ+ǭǝH2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝ

ɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp x 5-34Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073ǟ˖sup2Ɣ3 FITǛiacuteƄ3ŃuumlKʆampA3-G2007ƀĴɟƿplusmn 6612007

1DF CPI1Ȯ) FITǔ˨HG10F2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp2010ƀ14ǭǝHampOacutePpb10FntildeƀKĮ)ampH4 CPIe1)ampamp-G bP3ʡʭɥʿ-G Red Electrica de Espantildea (REE) 1DH5ˬ Otildeş3 94ijŚEgraveȉĕU`

1D)ɥHGampčoumlźľEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ƐH0x 5-4Ϳ

x 5-3 ~BINcentIcircceyuml~[umlāntildeĀ ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

x 5-4 dividejo~uumljfrac14divideethyuml2008Ā ǛΆ Spanish TSO (REE)

Ͷoumlɯ3ņccedil4čźľ-ɷDžłHGampĽ4Egraveȉ1ņŷęHŇɓWbEgraveȉȦouml

ɯ3ɛȯ0E71Ĵźľ1G CO2 Egraveȉ3Egraveȉ1ƐG3amp 2008 ƀ14ſǡEgraveȉ4 6443MWh8956oMWhͿ0F2007ƀ3 3935MWh5470oMWhͿK 64Į)ampH4ɠķ=-1˫HampEgraveȉ-ǰAͳ-G Ͷoumlɯ3źľĕƊEgraveȉKx 5-31oumlčEgraveȉKx 5-51ʆYacute1ampD1Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073brvbar

Aring-43Egraveȉ4E=-3ʜıatilde1GſǡoumlčEgraveȉ1ļ+EgraveȉĽŌ3Ĝ˩Oacute-G

46

x 5-5 dividejBQK[umllcedilyuml2003Ą2009Ā ǛΆOMEL and Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

52 1CN 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-2008 ƀ1GbP3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKHKreg3đdivideĴ1GͶoumlɯɯ3ěʍmȣG

521 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

ɚecirciquestiacute13`blKeumlɥGamp14bP3QOoyM3ˠȕ 50 MWK40E0ˬ ʹampQOoyM3ſĹˠȕ4ʢ 25 MW-˩ ʙQOoyM3ˬOtildeşK 2007ƀA 2008ƀA 30MWsup3ŚG Ğɶ3ɥǨ4Śȉaeligouml-ƀ 1700ǨE 2350Ǩ=-==-G2008ƀ3szligĴſĹ4 2085

ǨͿ=ampaRZn3đɔOacute4 2007ƀ- 2200Ǩ2008ƀ- 2150Ǩ-)amp bP-ɥEHGszlig3ʪȽm-4aRZn3ɥǴ4 20ƀGraquoH4Q

OoyM3śʷ4E0Ϳ2007ƀ 2008ƀ14aRZn3Py^PZK 20ƀG

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹˠȕ4 1985 kW-2007ƀ3 1621 kWEJ1ŀdivideamp3m-ȏ˪G34 2000 kW3Ͷ0J(3QOoyM-4 2 MW3Ͷ 15ļͿ-G

x 5-6 2008THORNOacuteuumlegrave2bszlig ǛΆ Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

47

(b) ccedil-1 ƀ3Ʒʱͳ0)amp34Zb III D7 IV ˮȲ 93ņĺͶoumlɯ˙ʹˬʹHampE-

FƎeacuteEĶʡʭ93ʡBěʍʌcurrenɂHampJ-40 $H1AJEƀ4ĎǺǛ]bn3frac121DFͶ3]bnȿŪG=ampǕĊȗˠiacute3

Ńǭ1DFͶ3˞Afrac12ampQOoyM93Ʒʱͳ1ĈGͶ3]bn4ʢ 70Έ73ͼ-G3]bn4ĎǺǛ3Egraveȉɠķ3[jo]o1Ɇ ampƛ˞0ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵ1šDž1EcircG

2007ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn14Ʒ]bn4 1233kW1714okWͿ2008ƀ14 1250kW1738okWͿLJŚHG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾAaeligoumlƶiacuteȒatildeoumlȸ3amp3oumlǛˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵŀamp1DFŀdivide

Gʰƾ4 2007ƀ 1910MWh2655oMWhͿ2008ƀ 1963MWh2729oMWhͿLJŚHG100ͼŃuumlͿHE3]bn4|3ŃuumlƟdegǯĦ3eumlɥė˃Ɵƛ˞HGɕʶƴ˗ʿBȗȋ˙ʹ)amp˞į1G Ͷoumlɯȗ3^Pc4ƼņGͶȯ3ǰAD^Pn4-1eumlɥHGampŚȉǨ4ȿŪ

G10G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȞĘɱ1bP-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯKbPĴatilde3˖3oumlD7ŘŚampȰɱȂ

ʩgt1ļ+aRZn3yacuteiquestiacute1D)˺amp$H1AJEȵuumlƟKȘamp˺iacute

Ƅ3amp13 2ƀ-ɛȯŃĀAgraveE3ƺIgrave1DGIgrave˯ƛ˞10)G ˺]bn42007ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ1ˬŚHG2007ƀ2008

ƀAǷOuml3ȣɞ4 2ť 8-G2008ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A źľ93ł1DGĔTHORN42007ƀ1 394MWh548oMWhͿ2008ƀ1 644oMWh895o

MWhͿ-)amp3ĔTHORN1ť2007ƀ1 348MWh483oMWhͿ2008ƀ14 215MWh299oMWhͿ˰EgraveHamp FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideHGFITǕʘǴ4(E3bA 20ƀ1ijŚHG

(f) Q54Q1 1ʆampmg4bPͶoumlɯąmiddot (AEE) D7 Intermoney śǟampʃʐ1ļ+A3-G

522 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

bP3ȳͶoumlɯSN4 62SN1ccedilotildeHHE3SN-4ͶoumlɯˠiacuteHGHE3SN1ťTHORNǸ˖JHG10G3śɱPq`NizK5currenɂHGQOo

yM3ˠȕ4ʢ 1000 MW-G

(b) ccedil-1 mg0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig mg0

ˮȲ 9 Zb III4sectʬ˵Ũɯȗ (DFIG) D7ccedilŚȉ3]ugKɥampͶZb IV4ĝǴɯȗD7y

Śȉ]ugE0GͶccedil͵HG3ccedil͵ǞȰ3˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

48

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mg0

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A mg0

(f) Q54Q1 mg0

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 5-25-54sup23 LCOEccedilǿ-ɥampm[3ntildeNjǼacuteKʆA3-G]bn3sup3Ś4szlig 2007

ƀ 2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZnK˘A3-2008ƀnǨ3-˘ʆG

Ugrave 5-3 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 30 30 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ 15 15 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ 2200 2150 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1233 (1714) 1250 (1738) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 191 (266) 196 (272) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA

Ugrave 5Ă4 1CNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 9 10 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 6 7 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 NA NA Ǵ ƀ 15 15 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 30 30 NA NA

FXn $ 139 139 NA NA

Ugrave 5-5 1CNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 53 (74) 54 (75) NA NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 34 (47) 35 (49) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ

ͼ 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 20 20 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 36 (51) 37 (52) NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

49

523 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 5-7 1CNrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup330

(b) BL0+dj bP3ͶoumlɯaRZn4đɔbDFAˬOtildeeumlɥɞfrac12ͶȯbP3szligːǨ1Ɛ

GampbP3 LCOE4đɔb3 LCOEDFA 18MWh25oMWhͿ0)Gđɔb3ſĹːǨLJŚ 2680Ǩ-G31ťbP4 2150Ǩ0)G szligːǨ4bP3 LCOE đɔb3 LCOE 3Ÿɮ13ǰA˞0Ńǘ-GͶȯ1divide

ʰƾAđɔbKĮ)FH14ĸdegD7ĸĻBˇȬiquest˞ȨGeumlɲɞAĠ=HG LCOE33˷ǥ0Gʖ 33˞į4˺]bn-F3ͳ4aRZn3WACCD7ǰʨɱ

1ě3Ʒ1˞ȨHGƷĔɲɞ (ROI) KŀdivideG

(c) ccedil-1 bP3Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4ʢ 1250kW1738okWͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 200

kW278 okWͿŘbP-4Ʒ]bnfrac12ampLCOE 4 10 MWh14 oMWhͿfrac120G ǑĐ]bn4QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘʨpoundamp3ɯˬOtilde3˥iquest]bnKĠampͳ-ʱƷ]

bn3ʢ 3ͼKĈG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bP3brvbarAring1Gyacuteɛȯ1ˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlɲɞ4đɔbDFA0)G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig bP-4ʰƾđɔbDFA0)GbP3ʰƾʱͳ14ʌĸdeg

ʚɡ]bnKĠamp3ŃuumlĠ=HGnotƔ3ʪethȿoumlˇŞȸǛ3ǤˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ

˜Ɵ3=F1DFʰƾAŀdivideG˟gt-G ſĹbP3ʰƾ4ʢ 196MWh272oMWhͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 7

MWh10oMWhͿ

ĎȲ30 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

50

524 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

Yacute1ampD1bP14 FIT iacuteƄͶoumlɯ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄͿźľiacuteƄźľEgraveȉͶoumlɯ3ĽŌͿ 23ǓƱiquestʡG2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ3ʢ 91ͼKźľiacuteƄ1DFłampH4ɯȐʿDFŅ3ĔTHORNKƖEHGamp-G x 5-8 4ĔTHORN3ŃǘȥǛͿͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOz3ŃǘbP1GźľiacuteƄ

3ĽŌͿKȣampA3-G

x 5Q-8 1CNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup331

525 aringmH7B

bP3mccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿ-G3EſĹbP3ͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOzEaRZnɯ

3yacute˞acuteKɄamp-G3ăccedil0Xj`yKƖGJG

53 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 5Ă6 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+psup332

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

76 (106)

83 (115) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

87 (121)

86 (120) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash11 (ndash15)

ndash3 (ndash4) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2009) ldquoEoacutelica 09 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Julio 2009)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileANUARIO20COMPLETO5B15Dpdf

ĎȲ31 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ32 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

51

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2008) ldquoEoacutelica 08 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Junio 2008)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee- publicaAEE_anuario_ingles08pdf

AEE ndash Intermoney (2006) ldquoEstudio de costes del sector eoacutelico Realizado por Intermoney para AEE (2006)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee-publica060612-Gen-EolicaEsp- PRALpdf

Comisioacuten Nacional de la Energiacutea (CNE) wwwcnees

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Red Eleacutectrica de Espantildea (REE) Spanish TSO wwwreees Royal Decree 6612007 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacionRD_661-2007-REpdf Royal Decree 4362004 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacion(36)RD436_2004pdf Spanish Market Operator (OMEL) wwwomeles

52

Aring 6Auml 1$QN

61 1$QNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bQRm3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙ0E71 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿK˷ǥG

611 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş42004ƀ1 474 MW)amp3 2008ƀǶ14 937 MW0)Gx 6-1ͿbQRmĆ3ȳQOoyM3ˬOtildeş4 2007ƀ14 110 MW-)amp=ampqN`N133Ƀ-3ɯAEHG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯcurrenɂ4EUdivideɳĴ3ěĴaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 3mg1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)

x 6-1 1$QNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_Uacuteuacute

ǛΆVinkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 and European Commission 2010 Ugrave 6-14bQRm1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=amp

Ugrave 6-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 6-1 1$QNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

220 220 272 322 381 429 470 560 698 951 2065 4365

ȳ 10 20 23 23 23 23 23 23 133 133 150 182

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

53

Ugrave 6-2 1$QNoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

ndashndashndash 05 51 50 59 48 41 90 138 253 278 288

ȳ ndashndashndash 10 25 0 0 0 0 0 110 0 4 4

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

612 s_CcedilN3N9A

bQRm-4aumlɣė˃SrY1DGɯ3ǓǎʘĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ (TGC) KŨTHORNG$3ɶɱ42016ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 17 TWh1ŀB-G3ɶȔOacuteK2020ƀ=-1ė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 25 TWh1GE1OacuteGampɠķ3iacuteƄ3ǔȜȏ˪HG=ampbQRmsQR3aacute`bl3Ȓʝ1ğampordfȾ˖J

HG 2008 ƀ=-4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ˖ɢĿĽŌ13AĤ5HGijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) Ͷoumlɯ

1ɥHamp3ɢĿĽŌ134ȳͶoumlɯ14 2009ƀ=-eumlɥė˃-)amp=amp 2003ƀ1vPjnaRZn3Ǔǎ˩ɩŐHampȳͶoumlɯţaringȥNtildeȎȀĸŻ-3Ͷoumlɯ)

ampˉģȻ˟0HampaRZn12008 ƀE 2012 ƀ=-3Ǵ1 3710 5160 oͿ3currenʙotildeƎEHG

2006 ƀʈǕƃ3ɢĿƐccedilǿ1Gˠiuml0E71ǝˠͶoumlɯaRZn3˴ėdbʞɬĀH25 MW=-3QOoyM4ˇȬiquest1ŭaeligH5ˬʹ-G0)amp ͶɅ3eumlɥ1GƥĽKƁcedilGampbQRmǕƃ3Ũ3Ͷoumlɯ3eumlɥ1GĴatilder

jnZĎȲ33ȒʝHamp3rjnZ1DFͶoumlɯ3˩ɩʘŚD7˴ŚʋuacuteOslashoumlbrvbarȐ3ɯ

Ůʰƾʚɡ1Gʀ˾KȻbQRm3ͶoumlɯɯaRZnKEumlH

G E1Ͷoumlɯ3]mOrgKɥɯbrvbarȐʿEcircƎŬ0E71ĸUcircĸĻĴ3ě|1

GEcircʿ3ordfȵEumlKIJ)G

62 1$QNVUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

621 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bQRm-43aRZn3szligːǨ4 2600Έ3050 ǨĽġHGżbQR

m3Ͷoumlɯj1ʆHGszligːǨ4ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿNjaeligampǘŒKĮ)

G3amp˩ʙ-4bQRm3aRZn3ǰʨɱ0ͶoumlɯǨKĽġHampʜı3 2600ǨͿG

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3aRZn42008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZn3]bnD7ɯoumlēǧ

Hampdeg˘ɱaRZnŚʻHamp Ƿ]bn4ampF 12171915kW1692Έ2662okWͿ=-Fmccedilǿ-4 1591kW2212okWͿsup3Śamp

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3ijŚccedil4ſĹ 0004 kW0006 okWͿŃuumlccedil4ʢ 11 MWh15 o

ĎȲ33 httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse đɔ

54

MWhͿLJŚG3Ńuuml4 7 MWh10 oMWhͿE 24 MWh33 oMWhͿ=-FvPjnaRZn1Gʰƾ4ż1ŃuumlņɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒

ɮ0)G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 Ugrave 6-51ʆD1mccedilǿ-4OumleumlőKƷŞżĽġG 5˟L-GͶoumlɯ1Ʒ

GparaȐ3middot˩Ľġ3ccedilǿ-420ͼƍOuml]bnʆHGbQRm3paraȐccedilǿEŨaeligampƛ˞0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞʫ7macrOumleumlőɞK 5LJŚampľĜͶoumlɯ3]bnKũ˰EgraveG10F20

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ǵŋʢ1DGźľ93oumlłŨTHORNHGĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ

23ĔTHORN3ȵH1D)KƖG(E3ĔTHORNɅAʄśƟż12008ƀ=-FITĽŌiacuteƄAɥHFͶoumlɯaRZn4 2 MWh3 oMWhͿŪͳ3ĽŌKĖamp

(f) Q54Q1 LCOE˩ʙ3mg4˫3D0ɥǓǎ˩ɩ3ʫȁD7Ĵatilde3_3amp1bQRmSrY

Ŭ=ampmg)amp˜ǘ3ƥĽɅ1ļ+A3-GǑĐ]bn4 Svensk Vindenergi (2009) 3mgKAumlɥampbQRm3Ͷoumlɯ˩ɩ1Gʭ˩Oacute4bQRmSrYŬȢƀɯ˘

GĽġǮ ES20103 ldquoVindkraft statistic 2009 (Wind power statistics 2009)rdquoD7 Vindkraft Statistik 20081ļ+G2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯǨ4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ3mgKAumlɥGE1Ͷoumlɯ3ɯȐbrvbarʿEʆmg3NjAEligKĖamp=ampEcircGotildeƊɞKǥE1Gampmiddot˩ǛKđɔampE14˚Ǜ O2 0E71 AriseȇƉźľ3ŨTHORN1GbrvbarȐaeligɘəEŦŞ3Ƨ˟KƊɥamp

622 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

2008ƀǨɏ-ŨTHORNHampbQRmǰņ3ȳaRZn4Lillgrunden3 11 MW3aRZn-)amp3aRZn4 Vattenfall 2004ƀ1Ɗʮ2007ƀ1ʡʭ1ʡHampLillgrundenaRZn-4 Siemens3 23 MWͶ MKII 48ļAumlɥHG$3( 13ļ4 2004ƀsup2ntilde1ʡʭ1ʡHGbQRm3ǰǝaRZn4 3 MW3Ͷ 10ļKOtildeamp GaumlsslingegrundaRZn-H4 VaumlnernɃ3Ģ 7Έ13m1ļʅKˬʹampqN`N133aRZn-G

Ugrave 6-3 LillgrundenBL0+Z

Lillgrundenmg Ά ļɆȷDF 115 m gɷƑΆ 924 m ʱʏΆ 6734 m2 iacuteƗǞȰΆ ėŃxjiD7ėŃƄ gƄΆ 6Έ16 rpm ǰņYacuteʔƄΆ 280 kmh gΆ 60 t pdΆ 82 t gΆ 110 t LJŚƀɯoumlΆ 6875500 kWh ˬOtildeeumlɥɞΆ 35ͼ ſĹͶΆ 85 ms

55

Ugrave 6-4 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 235 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 41 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2600 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1591 (2212) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 0004 (0006) NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 16 (222) NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 6-5 1$QNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 12 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 87 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 13 NA NA WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 47 NA NA

Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 28 NA NA

FXn SEKeuro ndashndashndash 942 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

Ugrave 6-6 1$QNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 50 (70) NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 25 (35) NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 2 (3) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 1 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

623 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

x 6-2 1ʆD1bQRm3 LCOE 4đɔbDFʢ 1 MWh1 oMWhͿfrac120)G

56

x 6-2 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1psup334

(a) BL0+dj bQRm3szligːǨ4đɔbDFAH4ͶoumlɯaRZn1eumlɥ-Gĵĸʏ

^[ampreg3Țŵ˽ĴDFAņampƎɓ3-G

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3Ʒ4oumlɯaRZnTGC `bl2001 ƀEŨTHORNͿ0E71Ǡœ3 NordPool

ʡʭ1995ƀEoumlĕƊͿ3amp1đɔbDFABB0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig đɔbbQRm3ʰƾ3Ÿɮ4ǰũ3A3-H4^1DGė˃Ɵʹ˒

-40

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bQRm3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12H4bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ93Ʒ1

GbZ3|frac12E-FbQRm3Ͷoumlɯɯ1GʪEƎɓ3˧G

x 6-3 1$QNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup335

ĎȲ34 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

57

624 s_CcedilN3N9A

ĔTHORN4 1Ϳoumlł1DGĔTHORN2Ϳ[˯Ǯł1DGĔTHORN3ͿFITE3Ūͳ3ĔTHORN2009ƀ1ƆțͿ3 3-ȒƭHG ĔTHORN4źľE33ȵH-GampʄśƟņ0b-4ȥǛ4 50 MWh

70 oMWhͿ-ŘŚG˟0H[˯ǮEgraveȉ4ʢ 25 MWh35 oMWhͿ)amp2009ƀ1OacuteHamp

625 aringmH7B ſĹɱ0aRZn14ouml3źľEgraveȉ TGCiacuteƄ3˚UgraveKʩgtĜJG-ăccedil1]bnK

-GD-G

Ugrave 6-7 1$QNIumlsectpsup336

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 75

(104) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash8

(ndash11) NA NA

63 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 6-7 1ʆampD1bQRm3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˇŹǷ]bnD7Ouml]bnfrac12amp1ǷdivideſĹĎEgrave (WACC) ȣɱfrac120)GD-GaRZn3AEligʬ4Ouml1DGǷ˺1DGA3-macr3˺Ǵ4 20ƀ-G$HDFAmacrǴʁľĜA$EG˕Ǵ3ʨpoundǨ1ʸFHG bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ4ȞĘ=ampƀƞ1ƭG2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrY

ɅK 25 TWh1GɶȔKƭGamp14ͶoumlɯKE1ɯŮƛ˞G

rOtildemiddot

Dagens Industri wwwdise 2010-03-16 Storm kring vindkraftsbolag

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

E24 wwwe24se 2010-03-16 Vindkraftsbolagen anklagas foumlr glaumldjekalkyler Nationellt naumltverk foumlr vindbruk (national network for winduse) httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse

Svensk Vindenergi 2009 Vindkraftverk ndash kartlaumlggning av aktiviteter och kostnader vid nedmontering aringterstaumlllande av plats och aringtervinning

Vinkraftstatistik 2009 ES 20103 2010 Swedish Energy Agency available at

ĎȲ35 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ36 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

58

httpwwwenergimyndighetenseGlobalPressPressmeddelandenVindkraftsstatistik202009p df

Vindkraftstatistik 2007 ES 20082 2008 Swedish Energy Agency available at httpwwwenergimyndighetenseen

59

Aring 7Auml 11

71 11uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bPb3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙacirciquestɱ14 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿ3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1GbPb4atildeĴ-GampȳaRZn4œķ0ǪˤIgrave3ampɃȭĸĻ4ɠķͶoumlɯ^PnEńHG

711 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş41996ƀ3 2 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 14 MW1ŀdivideampͶoumlɯ1DGƀɯouml4 2000ƀ3 18 GWhE 2008ƀ3 2020 GWh1ŀdivideampH1ť 2008ƀ3ʱ˞ouml4 587 TWh-Gɠķ˩ɩEHGaRZn1D)2012ƀ14 65 MW3ɯė˃10GLJŚHGǕƃ3SrYǕʘ-4 2030ƀ1 44 MWKɯGɶȔKljG

x 7-1 11uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

Ugrave 7-14bPb1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 7-24ĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-1 11IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

28 28 451 455 456 866 116 116 116 136 176 65 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

60

Ugrave 7-2 11oacute_ethyumlMWĀ

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

28 00 170 065 001 350 290 002 000 200 400 150 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

712 s_CcedilN3N9A

bPb-4 2008 ƀ1oPkĝȓ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄFITͿKŨTHORNamp3`bl4LJŚHG LCOEKamp3A3-GFIT 1Ġ=HG34oumlźľEgraveȉ[ouml3Oacute-GͶoumlɯ14bPb3 FIT4 110MWh153oMWhͿΈ130MWh181oMWhͿ1ijŚHG

72 11VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

721 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZn42 MW3Ͷ 6ļKOtildeamp Juraű˅Ȕ 1000Έ1200 mͿ3

QOoyM-GbPb1GͶoumlaRZn3L2 MW3ͶgɷƑ 82 mtzʢ 8 0mͿKɥG3ĸĻ-4NZdbiacuteHGamp1gɷƑg31ˬEHFŚȉaeligouml 800Έ1000 kWtz 40~60 m3ͶKeumlɥG

(b) ccedil-1 bPb1Gdeg˘ɱ0aRZn3ě3Ʒ]bn4ampF 1790 kW2488 kWͿ-G

Țŵ1GͶ93Ʒ]bn3otildeĜ4ſĹʢ 76bPb-4 55~6810)G34bPb3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn93NZdbďiacuteHGamp=ampbPb-4laquoacuteż1amp-G

3ampɯƯ3ʪȣɱ0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ14bPb-4śʷŪ0ampEWEA agrave˘ampʰƾ3ȣ1ļ+bPb3ʰƾK 31MWh43oMWhͿsup3Śamp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 sup23˘4bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥamp˺]bnKʆG

Ugrave 7-3 ccedilntildeacirciacute-1YacuteEgrave

źľeuml 5 ƛ˞0Ƿeumlɲɞ 7

Ƿ3otildeĜ 30 ˀɥƀǘ 20ƀ ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ 20ƀ

Py 0 Ǵ 20ƀ

ȰlaquoʌɞOECDͿ 21

61

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A bPb14aumlɣė˃SrYɯ3brvbarȐeumlɥ-Gɜʑ3ĔTHORN`bl 2ʍ͵G 64 FIT `bl-H4sup23]bn˩ʙ3ļɵ0GA3-3ȽKĖEHG34Ȧoumlɯ

10 MWsup2atildeͿňɖɯͶoumlɯuPUb0E71uPUbƆǺ-Gaumlɣė˃SrYɅ[vͿ1DGɯ1ɥė˃03Ǜ`bl4ɯǞƉaeligoumlecirc1đɔˬOtilde1ļ+acirciquest

ɱ1ˠŚHěƴ˗3 LCOEK-Gshyʩgt10)GȽ4ɯǞƉ1D) 20Έ25ƀ3Ǵ1ɥHGcurrenƦHGƴ˗db0E71HE3ƴ˗3źľĀEuml1DFHE3Ǜ`bl

-4ͳ3Ƞɱfrac12currenƦHGǛ3ȿͳɥHG34ɰampɯˬOtilde3gt-FHE3ˬ

Otilde4ȽǴK ŚampǛ`bl1DFȽKĖGɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKLľĜ$HĝǨ1oumlźľ-[oumlKłG4-00G ʖ 2 3ĔTHORN`bl4[oumlźľ-GɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKeumlɥ-0ľĜ4źľ-

oumlKłG10Gż$3ĔTHORN4ɯbrvbarȐʿoumlmiddotʇ3ordfȾ1D)ȪŚHGoumlĽŌK

ouml3źľEgraveȉ1divideampͳ-G

(f) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşmg4 Swiss Wind Energy Association ldquoSuisse Eolerdquo1DGA3-GƷ]bn

ʰƾ3mg4 2008ƀ1˩ɩHampͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ȇ1DGA3-G˺]bn4 FIT˩ʙD7 Swiss Federal Office of Energy3mTHORNouml3sup3Ś1ļ+A3-G Ugrave 7-47-64bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOELJŚ1ɥampmĀ1Gsup3ŚKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-4 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 2 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 6 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 1750 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1790 (2488) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 31 (43) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 7-5 11uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 7 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 30 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 70 NA NA Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 21 NA NA

FXn CHFeuro ndashndashndash 067 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

62

Ugrave 7-6 11uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125 (174) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash Ńuuml NA NA

ɯȐʿTHORNȐʿ-ordfȾ

73 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯ]bn4ʢ 120MWh167oMWhͿ-đɔbDFA 58MWh81oMWhͿ0)G

731 -1plusmnecirc

x 7-2 11uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecircpsup337

(a) BL0+igraveeacuteOgrave bPb-ɯHampouml4đɔbDFA˒Ū00)GH4ͶoumlɯʋƄ-Gamp

-GszligːǨ 1750ǨͿ

ĎȲ37 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringěĴ LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0G

ľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

63

(b) ccedil-1 bPb3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAH4Ņ3^Pn93NZdbİ

˜-GD7laquoacuteamp-GbPb3aRZn4ũˠȕ03-ņˠȕ0aRZ

nȣͶTHORNǨ3otildeƊɞfrac120)G

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig bPb3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAɯƯ-4ɼȧcentȵĪͲ10)F$3ampʰƾʚɡ

]bn0)GbPb-4ʰƾ1Gśʷ4L0

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bPb3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ4 7HGraquoL3a

RZn4yacute3ɡɦ1DFƷ0oumlmiddotʇ˺Goumlmiddotʇ4[ouml3˞3

=F1ƚKŠG

732 s_F(=2E

bPb1GͶoumlɯ3 FIT4 110~130MWh153Έ181oMWhͿ-mĀccedilǿ-4 125MWh174oMWhͿKɥGĔTHORN3DF˳˷ǥ4 721ugrave(e) Kđɔ3|-4$Hsup2ń3yacuteǓǎ`bl40

x 7-3 11uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup338

733 aringmH7B bPb-4ǕʘPdlOz1DF LCOE K)Gx 7-3 EbPb3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaR

Zn-4 FIT1DF LCOEK˚)GJG

ĎȲ38 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

64

73

Ugrave 7-7 11uumljBL0+psup339

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 120

(167) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125

(174) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash5

(ndash7) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

Die Website fuumlr Windenergie-Daten der Schweiz Accessed at wwwwind-datach

Erlaumluternder Bericht zur Revision der Anhaumlnge EnV Bundesamt fuumlr Energie 2102009

Swiss Energy Act of June 26 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_0html

Swiss Energy Ordinance of December 7 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_01html

ĎȲ39 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

65

Aring 8Auml Ecircz

81 Ecirczuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4ʟĴ1GD7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1$3]bn3ɚƙɚ1 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3ŚK˷ǥGȳͶoumlɯ14ʟĴ-4=$3ɯ1Gśʷ ampʞć1˦HG3gtG=ampAring 1 Auml1ʆampđɔbȣamp2008ƀ3ʟĴ3]bnccedilǿʫȁK˷ǥG

811 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

ʟĴ1GʦʏˬOtildeş42000ƀ3ʢ 25 GWE 2008ƀǶ3 25 GW1ŀdivideampx 8-1Ϳ2005ƀsup2ěƀƄ3ƀˬOtildeş4˫Kǭǝʯ2008ƀ14ǝamp1 85 GWdivideHampĎȲ402008ƀ14ǝˠɯşszligiquest3 42KͶoumlɯĈGſĹɱ0ƀ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeş1DFʟĴ3ʱȸouml3ʢ 19ͼKAEligʬ-GHG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)2008ƀ3ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4szlig3ͶoumlɯƯ1GǘOacute-GȳͶoumlɯaRZnA˩ɩHFɠķ4$3˴ėĕƖ

Ƞ1G x 8-1 4ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3Đ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71 2012 ƀ3currenɂD7 2030 ƀ

3ɉķɱ`pUKʆG

x 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

ʟĴ4ǥʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3ɶȔOacuteKˬŚ0ƕ)x 8-1 4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴŞɶȔOacute3degJF3mgɏKʆampA3-GSrYƥĽŬ (EIA) 3ʁǴcurrenɂ1DH52012 ƀ1ǝamp1ʢ 10 GW divideHGampˬOtildeş4 2008ƀDFAGʋƄŀdivideG˟gt-G (EIA 2009)ĎȲ41Ǵcurrenɂ1Gƀ3ʃʐ-

ĎȲ40 ś3IʟĴ-4 2009ƀA3timesğʯFǝamp1divideHampͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4 10 GWƍ10

(AWEA2010)ǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ŅĴȣ3ťHamp 2008ƀ1GA3-G ĎȲ41 Yacute1ampD12009ƀ1ɯHampͶoumlɯ3ˬʹş4 10 GWƍ10 (AWEA 2010)

66

4ɉķɱ0Ͷoumlɯ`pU3ccedilǿ1ļ+2030ƀ=-1ʟĴ-˟=HGouml˞3 20KͶoumlɯ-Ʉamp-GG (DOE 2008)3ʃʐ3LJŚ1DH520Pbn1Gamp14Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 305 GWƛ˞10GD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Ĝ˩Ϳ=amp3ʃʐ-42018ƀ=-1ƀˬOtildeşʢ 16 GW1ŀdivideGLJŚG Ugrave 8-1 4ʟĴ1GĐD7notƔcurrenɂHGʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 8-2 4Đ

D7notƔcurrenɂHGƀŨTHORNşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

25 26 43 47 64 68 92 117 169 255 595 251

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

Ugrave 8-2 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

NA 01 17 04 17 04 24 25 52 86 103 16

ȳ NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

812s_CcedilN3N9A

ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ3ampGĔTHORNɅ4oumlłaumlɣė˃SrYźľ˯ǥ (REC) -Gouml3ʪȽEgraveOacute REC3ł4ĸĻźľ$3reg3Ǽacute1DFaRZnȢ1ɮ0)G ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ4Ǖƃ3ʌiacute3UacuteLjʹ1D)ǓEHG2008 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ

ƴ˗143UacuteLjʹPy˺Ǚɣɤʌͳdž PTCͿ ɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČɥė˃-)amp (Schwabe et al 2009)

PTC4 2004ƀ=-1AgraveƄɄǴ1ampH3ľĜAǭǝHamp2000ƀE 2004ƀ=-1Aɯņ1EumlHamp2004ƀsup24 PTCżǨɥ-GD10)ampamp2005ƀE 2009ƀ1ʟĴ3ƀŨTHORNş4˫ɱ1ŀdivideamp (AWEA 2010) Ǖƃ3Ǖʘȿʌ4$3ť0Gaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗1˞0ʪȽɱEacuteɲKAampEGɠķ

EgraveOacute1ļ+ͶoumlɯaRZn14PTC divideUgraveČ3sect3Eacuteɲ1DFļɆaRZn3ˬʹ]bn3 35KG˟gt-G (Bolinger 2010)ľĜ1D)4PTCdivideUgraveČ3˜Ĝɱ0ʪȽucircȁouml3ł REC3ĔTHORN1ʗ0GG4$HKĮG10G (Harper et al 2007)ĎȲ42

82 Ecircz 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ƿʛ-42008 ƀ3ʟĴ1Gdeg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKGǷĽġǮ3reg3Ĵ3ȣ3ampʟĴ3ſĹɱG4deg˘ɱ0aRZn3ɚƙKsup21˷ǥGraquoȜʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3aR

Zn]bnɚƙ4ĸĻ1D)ɮ0FˬOtildeşAņ

ĎȲ42 H4Ͷoumlɯ3oumlȥǛĸUcirc3 RECEgraveȉ)ampĸĻ1D)ɮ0GǘŅ3˞į1ŷęHG

67

821 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ1G3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ſĹˬOtildeş4 1998Έ1999ƀ3ʢ 35 MWE 2007ƀ3 120 MW

=-F2008ƀ14 83 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ1ˬʹHampͶ3Śȉş4 05 MWǵɄE 3 MW=-F2008ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn-4ſĹ 167 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ3ǰAˊɱ0Ͷ4Śȉaeligouml 15 MWgɷƑ 77 mtz 80 m (GE2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) -G

(b) BL0+Ouml ͶɅ34aRZn1D)ņ1ɮ0)Gszligiquestɱ14ʟĴ-4ɡƦɱ0Ͷȯ10)G

ʟĴ3aRZn3szligːǨ4ʢ 1800Έ4400 ǨŃuumlņ2008 ƀ14şdivideſĹ 3066 ǨˤŤHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ43szligːǨ3LJŚOacute4 2007ƀ1ˬʹH 2008ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+A3-ʟĴszligiquest3ͶɅ3ɉķƟK|b1ampA3-40ɏ1ɫƧ-

G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn4ƀɼś1ŀdivideG2008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZ

n14Ʒ]bn4ǰfrac12ʢ 1000kW1400okWͿE 1800kW2500okWͿƍ=-FşdivideſĹ4 1378kW19195okWͿ-G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ44

Ľġ1DH5Ͷ3ĕƊEgraveȉAƀǤtimesğ1)amp2008 ƀ3˕Ċȗ0E71$H1sup1ǪȥƔ1DG˞frac123Ɛ-Ͷ3EgraveȉD7AEligʬ3frac12ɣ G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009 Bolinger 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ14ijŚŃuuml3ǞĠ=H(E-˘ADş|b3]bn

kWͿ14Igraveɤʌ$3reg3ǟˬ]bnˬOtildeordfnjǔŃouml|b3ĸdegʗĠ=HGʟĴ-eumlɥė˃03ʰƾ3mg4EHG3ampǷĽġǮ1ʆʰƾ4LJŚOacute1

ˁĕFʫȁʆĨGD1ǨǴūǣ3ĦordfnjKĠampʰƾĽġHampmg1ăccedilēǧH

0ė˃ƟGE1notƔ4Ͷ3ʽǹĀBIgrave˯Ǵ3ʨpound1DFʰƾ3LJŚOacuteǤGė

˃ƟG 2000ƀdeg1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯaRZn1Wiser Bolinger4 2000Έ2008ƀ3şdivideſĹ

ʰƾK 58MW80oMWͿ˟L-G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009) raquo3ʰƾ14ˊɱ1ɤʌĠ=H03]bnKĠGamp1Wiser Bolinger 3

LJŚOacute1ƀſĹ 50kW70okWͿ3ɤʌ3LJŚǓƱͳĎȲ45divideʙHGɤʌKĠamp

ʰƾʱͳ4Ńuuml-˘5 74MWh103oMWhͿijŚ-4ƀ 226kW314okWͿ-GĎȲ46ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3ʃʐ-42010ƀ=-3ʰƾKʢ 69MWh96oMWhͿBBfrac12˟ʏA)G (DOE 2008)ĎȲ47

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯɯaRZn3˺-4ˇŹ3otildeĜKaRZn|

b3OumlKlteampˇŹ3otildeĜ0)G34114ȞĘɱ1ɣɤʌdžǜʯɱ1˖JHampamp-GOuml1DG˺4ͶoumlɯaRZn3˺ǴKƊ=amp

˜1Gė˃ƟFE14ʪȽɱEgraveOacute3G PTCǴKŗH00GƠHG (Harper et al 2007) Ouml1DG˺KŪ0GǞğƟɣ amp34aRZnɯi`blSrYD

7Ǩ14ɢĿ˞ʥKĠͿ3aeligouml3˃ouml13KʰƾGKdzLamp-$3ampSrYŋʢǛ

ĎȲ43 ˬOtildeeumlɥɞ 35ͼ1ļ+ ĎȲ44 ]bn4szlig 2008ƀƄ3D7o-˘ʆ2008ƀ 12DZ 31ǡsup23onjʙ1ɥampɐǯn4 1

139o (Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ45 NREL3atildemg|bELJŚampɤʌǓƱͳ3ſĹ ĎȲ46 2008ƀ3ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71szligːǨTHORNoumlsup3Ś1ļ+ ĎȲ47 ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71 2008ƀƄ3szligːǨTHORNoumlLJŚOacute1ļ+ 2008ƀo1ŃnjampLJŚOacute

68

1ijŚG40)ampE-GʟĴ3Ouml3ư4ż`bl3szligaeligouml1ťSrYŋʢEgraveȉ

Kbrvbarntilde1ȪŚK˞ȨG (Cory and Schwabe 2009)E14 2008ƀƔĄ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ouml1DG˺4Ĵ˕źľ3˕ȴuumlbZĮ3amp˕Ċȗ3ntildeȣ˒İ10

)G (Schwabe et al 2009) mccedilǿ-4 100ͼǷƷKsup3ŚG3˺4 2008 ƀ1ʟĴ1ǃregɱ1-40ʸF

˖JHampȷń-4$Hˊɱ-40)ampͿmĀccedilǿ-42008ƀ1ƛ˞HampˇŹǷeumlɲɞK 75ͼsup3ŚG(Chadbourne and Parke 2009)3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ42008ƀ 10DZ3˕Ċȗ$31 100Έ200`bPnĽġHGǷ1DG˺]bnņŽ1ŀdivideampͿ3ƐKĖamp1ɫƧ-G (Chadbourne and Parke 2009 Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

(f) s_CcedilN3N9A ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3˞0ĔTHORNɅ41ͿǴŋʢG4źľ|b3Egraveȉ1ļ+oumlD

7aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3ł2Ϳɣɤʌdž3žĀ3ͿɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3dividełČ3 3ʍ͵-GʟĴ-4ouml RECł1DGĔTHORNĸĻD7źľ1D)˒ɮ0)Gouml14ˠiacuteHGH0REC14ˇɯɱaumlɣė˃SrYotildeƎʻyacuteKŗGͿmccedilǿ-4ĹʗdivideſĹͶoumlɯEgraveȉ3LJŚOacute4 ǴɱŋʢEgraveȉouml REC3ǞKĠͿčźľEgraveȉouml3gtͿ1 RECKecircdivideampEgraveȉ3Oacute10Gsup3ŚGĎȲ482008ƀ3ͶoumlɯEgraveȉ3ſĹ4ʢ 419MWh582 oMWhͿLJŚHGĎȲ49Py˺Ǚɣɤʌdž42008 ƀ14ʢ 151 MWh210oMWhͿHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)Ś3Ƿ]bn3divideUgraveČ4 6ƀ˩ɩ-˖JHm-4 1Έ6ƀɶ1$HH 20ͼ32ͼ192ͼ115ͼ115ͼ3otildeĜ-UgraveČHGĎȲ50

(g) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3mĀccedilǿ-4==0mgfbKɥampɚ1eumlɥė˃0agraveɱǛKUacuteYacuteamp

1ʆampszlig3mgfb3bnKǷʒ3đʾǚɝ1ʆaRZn3ɚƙaRZn3Ɵ˃

Ʒ]bnʰƾ)ampŃǘ14Wiser and Bolinger 20093ecirc˘1E1˳˷ǥG

822 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

ɠķ=-3IʟĴ-4ĩɥˠȕ3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥAring40ƈˬ3aRZnA

0ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3Ľġ-4= 2012Έ2018ƀ1ĩɥȳͶoumlɯ3ɯaRZnȶȦĻƴ˗KɥǾȷųȫ-ɱ1˖JHG10GǴƒHGđʾ3amp-4currenƦHGȳ

ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKʆampʟĴ-ɥHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn4=œķ0

ampHE3LJŚOacute4 LCOEmccedilǿ1Ġ0

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ3ȳͶ4|b3aRZnDFAņˠȕ0A310FDFˍō0ͶȯKeumlɥamp

ė˃10GGAring5^idjkŵ-ȏ˪HGCape WindȳͶoumlɯaRZn-4Ͷ3^PcK 36 MWGɯ˘0Hamp (Cape Wind 2010)szligːǨ3ʜı4 3000ǨEʢ4800ǨLJŚHG (DOE 2008)

(b) ccedil-1 ȳͶoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4Ńuumlņ2000 ƀdegĄ5E4ğtimesğ1GʟĴȚŵ-NjȊH

GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn13ƀ3˺Ȇ1DH5Ʒ]bn4ʢ 3100 kW

ĎȲ48 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3 43ͼ3aRZnƯDzʿ4GʋƄ3ĩȐbZK10G=amp

oumllO[ƺƎʿA3bZKė˃ƟGHE3ƺƎʿ4 2008ƀ1ͶoumlɯˬOtildeşKǝamp17ͼTHORNamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)3ccedilǿ-42008ƀ3ǝˠͶoumlɯ3 50ͼKźľ|b3Egraveȉ0J(ĩȐEgraveȉͿȟF3 50ͼKǴɱŋʢEgraveȉsup3ŚG

ĎȲ49 2008ƀ3Egraveȉ1Gsup23sup3Ś4Wiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+A3-sup23Fsup3ŚG(1)ǴɱͶoumlɯŋʢEgraveȉoumlRECͿ= 515oMWh(2)čłbjnźľEgraveȉ =5oMWh(3)aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ = 5oMWh

ĎȲ50 3UgraveČ˩ɩ4ƀĄ53ƫAring1ļ+A3-2008ƀ 2009ƀ1eumlɥė˃)amp 50ͼĽŌUgraveČ4ʾƬ0

69

4300 okWͿ-H4notƔǘƀ1ƈˬcurrenŚHGaRZn1GOacute-GĎȲ51H1ť

US Offshore Wind Collaborative-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn4 3300kW4600okWͿ10GcurrenɂG (USOWC 2009)

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn=ɥH0ampʰƾ3currenƦ4˒ʄśƟG

ɯ˘HGmg40ʟĴȚŵ-NjȊHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ1G

ǰ3˟ʏF1DH5ʱ]bn4ʢ 137MWh19oMWhͿ10GĎȲ52

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯ3ɯD7ɥ1bZ˟=HF=ampɯBɥ3ʪA0amp

Ǝeacute3(4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bnaRZnDFA4G10GcurrenƦ

HGȳͶoumlaRZn3˺-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3cedilʭɱ0ƷưȠ0J(Igrave

middotʇͿ-40bZ˭şƄ3ƷưȠ0J(Ȥ3ˇŹǷͿeumlɥHGƝJHGAring5Ȥ

3ˇŹǷƷ1ƛ˞HGeumlɲɞ4ś˯Gƴ˗1 25Έ350GcurrenƦHG (Justice 2010)=ampʟǕƃ4ĩɥD7ǝɱaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗3$Hͳ-0Ouml1DGǷ˺KǓǎ

Gamp3˕OgraveTHORNIgrave˯KNjAEligG(EAȳƴ˗1ɥ-Gė˃ƟAGͿraquoɠ˖Ȱ-4

˕Igrave˯˩ɩ3˺3eumlɥė˃Ɵ0E71ɧ˻ʿ3ȉEHG (DOE 2010) ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɥė˃0|ŵ|3PdlOz4ȳͶoumlɯaRZ

n1Aeumlɥ-Gsup3ŚHGǕƃ3PdlOz14˫3 PTCɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČĠ=HGɚ1ǾȷųȫcopyņɃĸĻ3ŵ4ě3ʚĂ1GȳͶoumlɯaRZnKEuml

Gamp3==0ǞȰKeumlɥHE3aRZnKŨG (USOWC 2009)

(e) Q54Q1 ȳͶoumlɯ3ɚƙ1G˞0mgɅ4ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution

to US Electricity SupplyrdquoĽġǮ (DOE 2008)US Offshore Wind Collaborative3US Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo0E71ʟĴ3ȳͶoumlɯ1Gěʍ3Ľɯ˘ʗ-GraquoǰƔ3A314ȲƧƛ˞-G

Ugrave 8-3 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ53

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ54 ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 165 167 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ͷļǘ ļ 73 50 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ɯĎȲ55 szligːǨ 2891 3066 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1241 (1725) 1378 (1915) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʰƾ ijŚͿĎȲ56 eurokW ($kW) 50 (70) 50 (70) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʰƾ ŃuumlͿĎȲ57

euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (80) 58 (80) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

$3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆWiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ51 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ52 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ53 Yacute1ampD1]bn4szlig 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆ ĎȲ54 3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙ4ntildeʛ1ʆGȳͶoumlɯ4ʟĴ3 LCOEccedilǿ14Ġ0 ĎȲ55 eumlɥɞ 2007ƀ 33ͼ2008ƀ 35ͼsup3ŚG (Wiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) ĎȲ56 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampş|b3ʰƾ4 2007ƀ 2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG ĎȲ57 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampɯouml|b3ʰƾ42007ƀ2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG

70

(f) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 8-38-5 4ș1G LCOE ccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3sup3ŚKʆG]bn3sup3Ś4HA 2007 ƀ

2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1GA3-2008ƀƄ3o-˘GmD7ǞȰ3˳˷ǥ4Aring 1AumlKđɔHamp

Ugrave 8-4 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 100 100 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash WACC ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

Ǵ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ȰlaquoʌɞĎȲ58 ͼ 389 389 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FXnĎȲ59 $US 139 139 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆChadbourne and Parke 2009 Harper et al 2007 Schwabe et al 2009

Ugrave 8-5 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

oumlźľEgraveȉĎȲ60 euroMWh ($MWh) 382 (531) 419 (582) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

źľEgraveȉ˯ǥĎȲ61 euroMWh ($MWh)

˫1 Ġ=HG

˫1 Ġ=HG ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FITǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml |bͿĎȲ62

euroMWh ($MWh) 144 (200) 151 (210) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ 10 10 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 6 6 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆHarper et al 2007 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ58 LJŚHampǕƃŵǕƃ3ʌɞ4$HH 35ͼ 6ͼ-Gɏ1ɫƧ (Harper et al 2007)ŵʌ4ĔTHORNEdž

HGamp˜Ĝśucircʌɞ4 389ͼ-G ĎȲ59 szlig3]bn4 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆGamp2007ƀA 2008ƀA 2008ƀǶ3ɐǯnKɥamp

(Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ60 2007ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3EgraveȉˬŚ1Gsup3ŚAWiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+˥amp ĎȲ61 aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3LJŚͳKouml3źľEgraveȉ3˩ʙ1ĠG ĎȲ62 PTCnjʙOacute4 13frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORN

71

823 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯTHORNoumlvgKɥ2007 ƀ 2008 ƀ3 LCOE K˩ʙamp2008 ƀ3ʟĴ LCOE2008

ƀ3ʟĴ3sup3ŚKszligAumlɥͿKđɔb2008 ƀ3đɔb3szligsup3ŚKAumlɥͿȣamp$3ʫȁ4sup23F-G Ĵecirc3ěTHORNoumlŃǘKě3đɔb3sup3ŚEʟĴ3sup3Ś9ŀccedilɱ1degTHORNđɔbʟĴ3 LCOE

3Ÿɮ93ěŃǘ3ƐKLJŚ-GD1ampʟĴ3 LCOE 4 3 MWh4 oMWhͿ-đɔb3 LCOEDFAfrac12x 8-2đɔͿ

x 8-2 EcirczrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup363

(b) BL0+dj ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4ſĹˍō0Ͷȯ3ơƣKĖG-G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ|b3

aRZn-4ſĹ 3066 Ǩ3szligːǨǴƒHGđɔb-4 2628 ǨͿʟĴ-4aRZn3aeligouml0G LCOEđɔbDFAʢ 8MWh11oMWhͿfrac120G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAʢ 72 kW100o kWͿfrac120)G

2008ƀ3ſĹƷ]bn4đɔb 1449kW2029okWͿ-G31ťʟĴ-4 1378kW19195okWͿ-GǑĐ]bnͶoumlɯˬOtilde3ǑĐ]bnaRZn^Pn3ƘUcirc]bnĠ=HGͿ4szliggt3Ʒ]bn1Ġ=HGsup3ŚHGƕ)ʟĴ-4Ʒ]bnfrac12

G1HLCOEđɔbDFAʢ 2MWh3oMWhͿfrac120G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3˺]bn4ˇŹǷ|amp2008ƀ4 100ͼͿ=ampđɔb-4

Ouml1DG˺KɥGampđɔbDFA0)G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯaRZn3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ75ͼͿ4đɔb3Oumleumlɲɞ55ͼͿDFA 200|`bPn0)G ʟĴ-4ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 2007 ƀE 2008 ƀ1ŀdivideampH4ǕĊȗ1DFƕǽ3ǷƷŞ

ĎȲ63 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

72

KŊ)ampamp-G (Schwabe et al 2009)H4=ampư0Egraveȉ3frac34Ŗ)ampreg3ʊʌdžƷAĝȓ3ơƣKƖEHGD1GʟĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY3ʌdžǕʘ3Ɵ1DGA3-3Ǖʘ1DF 2007ƀ1ʢ 6ͼ3eumlɲNjAEligHHȇƉƷeumlɲɞ3KŚG10)amp (Chadbourne and Parke 2007)ʟĴ3˺]bn0GʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 8MWh11oMWhͿ0G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAfrac120)Gʰƾ4ijŚG4Ńuuml-˘-

G3ampđɔb3ȣ-4ŃuumlǼacute-˘ampnjʙćǛ3LJŚOacuteampʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJ

Śʱͳ4 7MWh10oMWhͿđɔb3 13MWh18oMWhͿK4G1Į)ampraquoĽġ1DH5ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯɤȐ4ʰƾʚɡ]bn3˟ʏF1G˞˹Ͳ1ɠķAɷFĽ

ġHampmg4Ǩřszlig-Gamp3LJŚOacute4ƪ1˥Gƛ˞G =ampʰƾ4aRZn3ˠȕũ0G1Hfrac12G˯ƻAG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

HAʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJŚͳđɔbȣfrac120)G3į-GʟĴ3aR

Zn3ˠȕ4đɔbDFAņampͿ=ampʟĴ3ʰƾ4ǝˠaRZn14=DzucircIgrave

˯Ǵatilde-Gamp1ʵĥHGė˃ƟGʟĴ3ʰƾfrac120GʟĴ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFAʢ 6MWh8oMWhͿfrac120G

(f) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4Ƿ]bn˺]bnG4szliggt3ʰƾ1Ġ=HGƦŚHGamp

ʟĴ3ccedilǿ-4ecircmĀ0reg3]bn14ʡʭɥʿ1DGfrac12ĶPob (LVRT) ˞acuteG4ɑucircouml]bnʗGN`^wbǛ4ż4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɷDž˹

HG40

(g) uumljfrac14divideWocirceumlCcediloslash Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ]bn4đɔbDFA0)GHE3Ǖʘ1

41ͿȰlaquoʌɞ2ͿȰlaquo˹ʌƯƖE3eumlőǓƱdžĠ=HGʟĴ3DzucircȰlaquoʌɞ389Ϳ4đɔb30ͿDFA$3amp LCOE0)GE1Ƿ1DG 100˺K˟L-GampʟĴ3 LCOE ˹ʌƯƖ3eumlőǓƱdž1D)ȿͳHG40ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFAʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ0)G

824 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj3˩ʙ1DFʟĴ3ĔTHORNŃǘouml RECͿ3OacuteKͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘȣGyacuteYj4=ĔTHORNǕʘAͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘKĠ

1˩ʙș1ĔTHORNŃǘ3gtKĠauml˩ʙGǰƔ1auml7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘKĠ˩

ʙG3ŀccedilsup3Ś1DFͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘ1ťGĔTHORN3ɸťɱEgraveOacuteKǥE1amp x 8-34ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘĔTHORN3ŃǘKȣHE 23D1ʟĴ3 LCOE

KȒƭGKʆampA3-G2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3 LCOEʢ 41MWh57oMWhͿ4ĔTHORNɅouml REC3łͿ-JHGʢ 24MWh33oMWhͿ4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHGPTCUgraveČ˩ɩ3divideͿotildeĜ-˘0EʟĴ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 24ĔTHORN-ȟF3 3ccedil3 14ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHG

73

x 8-3 Ecirczs_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup364

825 aringmH7B

ʟĴ3mĀccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash1 MWhndash1 oMWhͿ-G3EʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4aRZnɯ1ƛ˞HGyacute˞acuteKɄamp31ăccedil0Xj`

yKĔTHORND7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOzȉGľĜͿEƖG10G34

PTCżǨDzucirc-)amp 2005Έ2009ƀ3ƀͶoumlˬOtildeş3ʯɱ˫EAǥE-GH41ƀŨTHORNş4 PCT]bnɑucirc10)ampǨ1˒ȿŪG (AWEA2009)ĎȲ65

83 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+

ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ƀƞ1ƼņGH4Ͷȯż1ˍō-]bnȣɱfrac12ĔTHORN

Ʌăccedil1F=ampľĜ1D)4Dzɲ0ǕʘPdlOzKeumlɥ-GE-GʟĴ1Gɠķ=

-3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn4HA-śǟHampʟĴeacute0GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯ

EHGʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bn4ˊ1đɔbDFAfrac12H4SrYaeligouml

ņǷ]bnʰƾfrac121DGͶoumlɯ1GǕƃ3ǕʘPdlOzȜ

Ɖ1˴ŚHamp-Ĵatilde3Ņ3szlig-401AͿ3ɯaRZnEumlHG10)amp

E-GĔTHORNǕʘ3PdlOz3ɸiexclucircȁ1DFͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ3yacuteYj4lte10

)G

Ugrave 8-6 EcirczIumlsectpsup366

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

58 (81)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

60 (83)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

ndash1 (ndash1) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ĎȲ64 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ65 x 8-1đɔ ĎȲ66 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

74

rOtildemiddot

AWEA (2010) ldquoUS Wind Energy Industry Breaks All Records Installs Nearly 10000 MW in 2009 Manufacturing

Investment Jobs Still Lagrdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) news release January 26 2010 at httpwwwaweaorgnewsroomreleases01-26- 10_AWEA_Q4_and_Year-End_Report_Releasehtml

AWEA (2009) ldquoAmerican Wind Energy Association Annual Wind Industry Report Year Ending 2008rdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) at httpwwwaweaorgpublicationsreportsAWEA-Annual-Wind-Report-2009pdf

Bolinger M (2010) ldquoRevealing the Hidden Value that the Federal Investment Tax Credit and Treasury Cash Grant Provide to Community Wind Projectsrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL-2909E January 2010 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreportslbnl-2909epdf

Capewind (2010) ldquoCape Wind Signs Agreement to Buy Siemens 36-MW Offshore Wind Turbinesrdquo Cape Wind (Capewind) news release March 31 2010 at httpwwwcapewindorgnews1086htm

Chadbourne and Parke (2009) ldquoTrends in Tax Equity for Renewable Energyrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke January 2009 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication810dde60-3c78-4a9a-9c5d- a5fae8014b4fPresentationPublicationAttachment51fc06c5-1407-48ac-9dff- a605de0f58e1pfn0109pdf

Chadbourne and Parke (2007) ldquoThe Tax Equity Marketrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke April 2007 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication572b04b4- 905e-48e1-8f6b-0f520c4f2615PresentationPublicationAttachment573bdc6c-ff85-4f99-b4d0- 25a845907bccpfn0407pdf

Cory K Schwabe P (2009) ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financing Input Variablesrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL TP-6A2-46671 October 2009 at httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

DOE (2010) ldquoGeneral Loan Guarantee Program Frequently Asked Questionsrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) accessed April 2010 at httpwwwlgprogramenergygovfaq2htm

DOE (2008) ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution to US Electricity Supplyrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2008 at httpwww20percentwindorg

EIA (2009) ldquoAnnual Energy Outlook 2010 Early Release with Projections to 2030rdquo US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration (EIA) website accessed February 2010 at httpwwweiadoegovoiafaeoexcelaeotab_16xls

102Federal Reserve (2010) ldquoHistorical Rates for Euro Areardquo Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System website accessed February 2010 at httpwwwfederalreservegovreleasesh10histdat00_euhtm

GE (2010) ldquo15 MW Wind Turbine Technical Specificationsrdquo GE Energy (GE) website accessed April 2010 at httpwwwgepowercomprod_servproductswind_turbinesen15mwspecshtm

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review amp Comparative Analysisrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports63434pdf

Justice S (2009) ldquoPrivate Financing of Renewable Energy ndash A Guide for Policymakers UNEP Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative Bloomberg New Energy Finance Chatham House December 2009 at httpwwwchathamhouseorgukfiles15542_1209_financeguidepdf

Schwabe P Cory K Newcomb J (2009) ldquoRenewable Energy Project Financing Impacts of the Financial Crisis and Federal Legislationrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory technical report NRELTP-6A2-44930 July 2009 at

75

httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti44930pdf

USOWC (2009) ldquoUS Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo US Offshore Wind Collaborative (USOWC) October 2009 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreports63434pdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2009) ldquo2008 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2009 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports2008-wind-technologiespdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2008) ldquoAnnual Report on US Wind Power Installation Cost and Performance Trends 2007rdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy May 2008 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs43025pdf

76

Uograve AĂsup1agraveUumlaacute

shyocircMQ+Q

BL0+para

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

aRZn3gPn Project title

aRZnĞregĴ3QOo

yMȣGamp AringΆoPk3đɔQOoyM13

aRZn3ʍ͵ Project type

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ʍ͵ A4ȳ

Ͷļǘ Number of wind turbines

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

Ͷʱǘ$EěĴ3ɡ˼

3ſĹɱQOoyMͿ

ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

Śȉaeligouml Rated power

Ͷ 1ļ3Śȉaeligouml ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

gɷƑ Rotor diameter

Ͷ3gɷƑ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

ĖͶʏ Swept area

gͶKĖGszligʏ m2-˘˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

tz Hub height

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ƚĸɏ3ſĹ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽraquotz

3ſĹͶƀɯouml4ɷDž

EcircGͿ tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ

Lond term average wind speed at hub height

tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

Ȝģɯouml Net electricity production

QOoyM3ƀſĹȜ

ģɯouml szligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

ƺʌouml Tax capability

iacute΄ɑiacute ćɜ3aRZn3ľĜ

4ʌiacuteUacuteʘKszligeumlɥ-GͿG4

ˣmiddotʇKƾ3ľĜ4ˣmiddotʇ

Ǝ˲ƀƄ3ʌdžKszligDzucirc1eumlɥ-

GͿ4_Ƹ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4

Ĵʌ΄ʌ3gt1ɥHGŵʌBĸ

Ǟʌ4ńͿ Currency

szlig]bnĔTHORNPdlOz

ʗ3 2007ǫƀ 2008ǫƀ3$HHdeg˘ɱ0ǡ $HH 2007ƀ 12DZ 3ǡ 2008ƀ12DZ 31ǡͿ3ȣ1ļ+1ˬŚ

ijŚƀ]bnćfrac14 Fixed annual costs unit

ijŚʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kW

Ńuumlƀ]bnćfrac14 Variable annual costs unit

ƀʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kWh

ccedil-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ͷ Wind turbine

ͶD7ɯ˙ʹ3Yacute˖Ʒ

]bn ggtzgĖ

oPznPKƿʆGPy

YN~jZb`blxj

i`blzX`blpdt

77

Qa[ɯȗgzoͶ

ɥŃĶĬraraquoļʅG4ʡʭDž

ʯ4Ġ=reg-ƲͿ Ͷ3 Wind turbine transportation

ͶK˛ŶľEaRZ

nɯ^Pn1$1ˬ

ʹ-GD1Gamp3]b

n

Ͷ3aRZn^Pn93Křpound

Gamp1ɥEHG΄n

jZ]bnD7Z3]bnK

Ġ Ͷ3ˬʹ Wind turbine installation

aRZnƈˬǴ3Ͷ

3ˬʹ]bn ƈˬ3Z3]bnKĠ

ũ˩ΆͶ3]bn Sub-total wind turbine cost

Ͷ 3ļsup23]bn3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ļʅ Foundations

QOoyM1ƛ˞0ļʅ

3ʱ]bn ]Zn$3regQOoyM

3ěͶKǓG31ƛ˞0ȒǓȅK

Ġ Ȓatildeʡʭ Internal grid

QOoyM3ŃƯ93

Džʯ1ƛ˞0QOoyM

atilde3ȥʡʭ

QOoyMatilde3szlig3ʳQO

oyM3ŃƯ=-D7ŃƯ

3ʳKĠͿŃƯ1ʡɏDF

ntilde1ʡʭʡŃĶĬGľĜ4$3Ń

ĶĬ=-3szlig3ʳKĠ1șiacuteƗɯ`blKuziacuteƗGamp1ˬʹ

HampiacuteƗ˙ʹͿ3]bnKĠƯDzʿ

D7Ͷ˛brvbarȐʿ1ǖB˿ġKcedilamp

FͶKǒAcirc1DFuumlD7Ocirc

țampFɥʭ˩OacuteKƵǍGamp3

ɴˡiacuteƗ`bl (SCADA)G4QOoyMɴˡ`bl3ˬʹKĠ

ʡʭʡ[jo]o3

Ɇƻ Grid connection grid code compliance

QOoyM3ʡʭʡ1

ƛ˞0ŃĶĬǠœ3oumlʡʭ

-ƛ˞HGȥʡʭ

QOoyMEʡʭ=-3ʳ

0[jo]oɆƻ3amp1ȨE

HGegrave3divideɱ˙ʹĠ=HGQO

oyMʡʭʡŃĶĬKĠ˜ǘ3

ŃƯKDzGľĜʡʭʡŃĶĬ

ʡʭ3ʳ3gtKĠ ʡʭŀƍ Grid reinforcement

˄Ƌ0ʡʭ-4QOoyM

3ʡ3ampʡʭ3reg3ccedil

3ĶʤKG1DF

ʡʭKŀƍGė˃ƟG

Ǡœ3ʡʭ3ŀƍ1ƛ˞0˙ʹ

ŀƍdivideɱiacuteƗ$3reg3macrdivideɱ˙ʹKĠ

Ϳ

ŃƯ Substations and transformer station

ʡʭʡŃĶĬˇiquestD7$H

=-3ĂKĠampQOoy

M3ʡʭatilde1Gszlig3

ŃƯ3]bn

ʡʭ93ʡĸɏ=-ǜĬD7ǜ

ĬKĠŃĶĬ4ĶKǤĶGȥ

ȗĬ-GL3Ͷ4aeligoumlKʡ

ʭĶ1ǤĶGŃĶĬKDzG ũ˩Άȥʡʭ Sub-total electrical netgrid

ȥʡʭ1G˫ 4 ɶ3ũ˩

˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ˴˯ Certification

ʡʭʡG1amp)QO

oyMK˴˯Gamp3]

bn

˴˯Hampˬ˩IJ3]bnD7QOo

yM3ś3ƈˬK3ˬ˩IJȣ

G]bnKĠ ɢĿ˺Ȇ Environmental survey

QOoyM3ɯȠ-

ƛ˞10GɢĿ˺Ȇ3ʱͳH

4ěĴ3ɢĿƐ˰EgraveǮ3acirciquest

ɱ0˞acute1˟G-G

ȩȃ3ė˃ƟɊɇograveʗͿ ͷ|3LJŚ Ǫˤ93ˡˢɱƐ ɣɣəD7ɣƩʡ93ƈˬD7 3Ɛ ɚŚ3ͻ˓˔3ɴˡ `oQyjV3Oslash

Pysup2ń3ɯ]bn

3ũ˩ Non-infrastructure development subtotal

˫3Pysup2ń3aR

Znɯ3˫ 2ɶ3ʱ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

78

ʰƾˬOtilde OampM facilities

ʰƾȐyacute3˖1ƛ˞0

D7ǟˬKǝamp1ƈˬG

]bn

Ͷ3ƈˬ14aRZn3ˀ

ɥƀǘ3ʰƾgzo3

ɏȏ]bnD7ņĺĦ3ordfnj]bn $3reg Miscellaneous

˫3aRZnɯ]bn

1Ġ=H0$3regegrave3

]bn

3ĵĸƯDzʿ93˚Ugrave

ntilde3eumlőǓƱ Interest payment before operation

aRZnŐntilde1ǓƱ

ƛ˞10Geumlő3ʱͳ ż4ƈˬȠ3OumlD7Ͷ3Ͱ

ǓƱ3amp33Ńǘ4 1Έ2ƀatilde3yacuteŃǘ-G3Xj`y

mŐHGɥeacuteƀƄ1

4ntilde-ǓƱ]bnG reg3aRZnɯ]b

n3ũ˩ Sub-total other project development costs

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫frac14ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0

ľĜʱͳ-˘

aRZnƷ]bn3

ʱͳ Total project investment costs

˫ɯɶũ˩3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

q-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǑĐbZjEgraveͳK

Ϳ Decommisioning excl scrap value

ļʅKĠQOoyMK

ĵĸEǑĐG31˞G]

bn

QOoyMD7egrave3Py

ZʗͿ3˥iquestǑĐə

$3regegrave3ƛ˞0Ǖƃ˯ǥǮ3Acircƭ]b

n ĵĸ3ˇɓɛƩ93ĮƘ Returning the land to the natural state

ĵĸ3ɠɛĮƘ3amp3]bn aRZnřpoundamp1ɯɣ

bZjEgraveͳ Scrap value

ǑĐǨ3bZjǺǛ3łČ

EgraveOacute ʳʗaumleumlɥG4bZj

łČ-Gė˃Ɵ3GQOoyM

3ǺǛ ȜģǑĐ]bn Net decommissioning costs

˫ɶ3ʱͳ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

BL0+igraveeacute Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǨszligːǨmO

nKͿ Operational time full load hours excluding derate

szligːǨ4QOoyM

3ſĹƀɯoumlK$3

Śȉaeligouml-ampOacute-G

H4szligːǨ3Ĝ˩-F˩ɩɱ

D7˩ɩń3ʰƾʚɡ3amp3OcircțǨK

ĠszligːǨŅŚamp^P

n1GQOoyM3ɯouml

AŀdivideG szligːǨ3mOn Derate of full load hours

QOoyMʎOslash

0Ǩ ɼȧʗ1DGOcircț3amp3ɯouml

3ǏŊKĠ ȜģǨȜģszligːǨ

Net operational timefull load hours

ǨszligːǨEmO

nKƊampǨ ȜģǨ3Ĝ˩KĠG0J(m

OnKĠGͿ

ˀɥƀǘ Economic life

ƦŚHGaRZn3ˀɥ

ƀǘ3ǴaRZn]

bn3ʱͳKĮĔ0H50

E0Ϳ

AringaRZnKʮʯɥG-

ƦŚHampˀɥƀǘsup21ăccedilʎOslash-

GɛƩ1)ampAaRZn

3ȟœˀɥƀǘ4egraveĠ0 ]bn˩ʙ3amp3˩ɩť

Ǵ Time horizon for cost

LCOE˩ʙ3ť0GǴ _OacuteKTHORNouml0ľĜ4myTn

ˬŚ1DFˀɥƀǘ1ˬŚG

79

calculations

aringm Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ǵ Loan duration

ȽǴ3Ĝ˩ ͰD7eumlőǓƱKĠ

― źľeuml Loan - market interest rate

euml3Oacute43ư1D)

ŃJG OgraveTHORN3otildeĜ-˘]bn

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml3ƖEHG Oumleumlɲɞ Return on debt

Ǵ1ȢƀƖEHG

euml ȢƀƖEHGeuml

ƛ˞HGǷeumlɲɞź

ľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivideʙ

KͿ Required return on equity excl market volatility risk adder

QOoyM3ǷƷŞ

ȨGeumlɲɞ Ƿ1Geumlɲ3otildeĜ

źľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivide

ʙ Market volatility risk adder

ʕyenɱźľ1đdivideǷeumlɲɞ

KGdividebZKƵǍG

KɶɱampA3

źľ1GcurrenƦń3ŃuumlbZKʾƬ

Gamp1divideʙGotildeĜ

ƛ˞HGƷǷ3Ȝ

ģeumlɲɞ Net required return on investment equity

ɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZ

nƷŞ93ǷeumlɲɞǷƷ

ŞȨGźľŃuumlƟ3b

ZKĠͿ

Ƿeumlɲɞźľ3ŃuumlƟKʾƬG

ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKƵǍGamp mZ-ɥė ˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ƿ3otildeĜĸUcircǷ3ƯDz

ȖKͿ Equity share excl local equity ownership

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp1ƻaeligGǷ3otilde

Ĝ

ͶǓƾ˙ʹPyʚɡ˺

ʗ3]bnKamp1ƷGǷ3

ʱͳ

Ƿ3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Total equity share

ĸUcirc3Ƿ3ƯDzȖ0E71ʱ

Ʒ]bn ˺]bnK

amp1ƻaeligGǷ3otildeĜ3

Ĝ˩

ĸUcircD7ĸUcircsup2ń3ƷŞNjAEligamp

Ƿ3ʱͳ

Ouml3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Debt share

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp3Ouml3otildeĜ THORNoumlGǷ3otildeĜ1ļ+˩ʙOacute

aRZn3ʱ]bn 100EǷ3otildeĜKƊampOacuteͿ

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate- municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠǘOacute

4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ȝģʌɞ Net tax rate

ǕƃĸǞŵǕƃ3Ȱlaquoʌ

ɞ3Ĝ˩ -˘ʆǕƃźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

80

shy MQ+Q

oacute-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

˛ȐʿNjAEligGʰƾʚ

ɡ]bn Manufacturer-provided maintenance

eacuteƀƄG4$3Ɣ1divide]

bn0-˛ȐʿNjAEligG

ʰƾʚɡ]bn

3]bn4żQOoyM3ˬʹ

]bn1Ġ=HGampeacuteǴ4e1

0G4-G

atildebgjy1DG˩ɩɱ

ʰƾʚɡ]bn Scheduled maintenance by internal staff

aRZnƯDzʿ3bgjy

1DGŚǴɱ0QOoyM

3ʰƾʚɡ]bn

bgjy1DGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

ń^wbŋʢ External service contracts

reg3˻Ȑʿ1DGŚǴɱ0Q

OoyM3ʰƾʚɡ]b

n

˻brvbarȐʿDGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

]bn Operation costs

QOoyM3ɥ1ƛ˞

0ƀ]bn SCADA KĠQOoyM3ƴ˗ɱɥ3amp3]bn-ʚɡ]bn-40

H14ecirc˷ǥͿǘOacuteȥcurren

ɂ3]bnKĠ ɏȏ Inspections

Ͷɏȏ3amp˻ȐʿK

ˇʇ-A˫3^wb˻

Ȑʿ-A0ľĜͿ

gzo3Ľġ2~4ƀȢͿĦ3ƴ˗ɏȏͶ 1 ļampF 2 ƀȢ1 1 ǡͿKĠɏȏ3ǨȂ4kW |b

-ˬŚ ˩ɩń3Icircɡ Unscheduled repairs

˩ɩń3Icircɡʰƾʚɡ ˙ʹ3ǖŇȥɛȯ$3reg3ńį1DG

ʰƾijŚͿũ˩ OampM costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ OampM costs variable subtotal

˫3Ńuumlʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝͳ-˘ ʚɡ Administration

QOoyM3ʚɡ

D7ɴɽ3]bn ʬƈəˇuumlD7ɗǛͿʗKĠ

Igrave Insurance

QOoyM$33

bZD7$3Ɛ1OtildeG

amp1ǓƱƀIgraveǛ

uumlɤIgraveǏŝUgraveuacuteɍ˚UgraveD7ɢĿ

)ampQOoyM1ɷDžEcirc

Gegrave3Igrave

ʡʭǛ Grid charges

ʡʭ93ʡ0E71ɥKǓ

ǎG31ƛ˞HGƀǛ

_4HKş|b3]bn

G4SrY]bnTHORNouml

G-G ʡʭ3]bnijŚͿ Grid costs fixed

˫3ʡʭǛ

ʡʭ3]bnŃuumlŃuumlͿ Grid costs variable

˫3ʬ˺ʛ]bn

^Pn3 Site lease

QOoyMKˬʹampĵ

ĸ3ƯDzʿ1ǓƱʱͳ Ͷ 1 ļ1macrǓƱľĜAʱͳ-ǓƱľĜAʱ]bn-THORNouml

G ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

aRZnşƀ

kWͿ1ļ+aRZnǓƱƀʌͳ

ͼ|b3ʌ4˫3Z`n-ƀ

șŃuuml30ŃǘTHORNoumlG

1ȲƧ-4ş|b3ʌKʆ

$3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG ȸouml Electricity consumption

ouml3ˇŹȸ ʡʭ3ĝǴD7ɯƯ3uumlʗ3amp

_4HEKş|bG4

SrY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ɢĿɂŚ˰Egraveʗ Environmental measurements evaluations etc

QOoyM3˴ė0E7

1KʰƾG31ƛ˞0ƀ

ɢĿɂŚ˰Egrave

_4HEKş|bG4Sr

Y]bnTHORNoumlG-

G

81

reg3ƀ]bnijŚͿũ

˩ Other annual costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚɢĿɂŚǛ

ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ Other annual costs variable subtotal

˫3oumlȸ]bn

ƀ]bnijŚͿ Annual costs fixed

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ƀ]bnŃuumlͿ Annual costs variable

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘

Ts_-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ƀźľđdivide]bn Annal market participation fee

ʕyenɱoumlźľ1đdivideGamp

3ƀ]bn źľɥʿʡʭɥʿ1ǓƱ

ʬ˺Ǚ]bn Balancing costs

ͶoumlɯKěǨ1oumlʡ

ʭ1DžʯGamp3]bnʱͳ

aeligoumlcurrenɂ1Gś3ŀccedil]

bn

kW]bn4ȜƉ0ʬ˺ǙźľKG43]bnouml3źľ

Egraveȉ1Ġ=HGampccedilG3İ

0ľĜAG_4HE3]bn

Kş|b3]bnG4S

rY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ŋʢ]bnĕƊǛʗͿ Contract costs (transaction fees etc)

ŋʢ3ʰƾ1ƛ˞0ƀǓƱͳ kWh-˘ĕƊǛ

reg3]bn3ʱͳ Subtotal other costs

źľđdivide]bnʬ˺Ǚ]b

nŋʢ]bn3Ĝ˩

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKşǦ1GĽ

Ō kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƟʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źľoumlEgraveȉ Market price electricity

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

ƀſĹźľoumlEgraveȉ kWh

źľ˯ǮEgraveȉ Market price certificates

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ3

ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kWhǕʘ1DFG4źľ|b-ˬŚHGľĜGǘOacute4ecirc

THORNoumlG FITĔTHORN Feed-in tariff revenue

FIT1DGĔTHORN ż4aR

Zn]bn3ǓƱ3amp3ŀ

ccedilǓƱŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞK

ʄIgraveG31Auml ouml3źľEgrave

ȉKĠľĜAG

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐKŐampƀƄ1

ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlHG

reg3ĔTHORN3ʱͳ Subtotal other revenues

˫3reg3ĔTHORN3Ĝ˩

Ccedil ― shyocircocirc

shyocirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ʌƊntildedž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as a before-tax credit

ʌƊntilde

3ʌdž1ťGntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊntilde

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGʌ|b3ntildeƱ˚

ugrave3otildeĜHĝ otildeĜaRZ

n3ʱͳoͿG4ˬOtildeşampF

3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ

82

|b3PdlOz4aRZn1

DGʌƊntilde1ɥHGƕ)aR

Zn1ťEgraveOacuteaRZn3eacute

ƀ3˹ʌͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3

ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜaRZnG

G4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3

ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ

4_Ƹ-Gʌdž4Ĵ

ʌ13gtɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ

|-40Ϳ ʌƊƔdž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave AringΆUgraveČͿ Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as an after-tax deduction (eg depreciation)

ʌƊƔ

3ʌdž1ļ+ntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊƔ

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGYacute˖ʌdžH

ĝ otildeĜaRZn3ʱͳoͿ

G4ˬOtildeşampF3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ|b3Pdl

Oz4aRZn1DGʌƊƔ1ɥ

HG3ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜa

RZnGG4aRZn

ƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-G

ˣmiddotʇKƾ4_Ƹ-G

ʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥHGƕ

)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront cash investment subsidy

aRZnszligiquest1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ aRZnƷ]bnʱͳ1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml-3Ƚė˃ ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKǁGamp mZ-ɥė˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

shyl Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

kW-ʆHGƀʌͳ ȢƀǓƱD7ƀșŃuumlGş

|b3ʌͳ FITĔTHORNAringΆɯouml|b3PdlOzͿ Feed-in tariff revenue (eg production based incentives)

FIT G4ɯouml|b3PdlOz1DGĔTHORN

ż4aRZn3]bnK

31˞ȨHGŀccedilǓƱ1

ŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞKdivideampOacute

ouml3źľEgraveȉKdivideGľĜA

G

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐɱɥKŐampƀƄ

1ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǨCcedilœǛiacuteƄKɥ

GĴoPkʗͿ4ƀ3ǘOacuteAring

$HƀK Ś0

AͿKTHORNoumlG FITǕʘǴ Feed-in tariff policy period

FIT G4ɯ˚ugraveǓƱJHGʱǨ

aRZn1ƦŚHGʪȽɱƕŎǴ

K0ʜı3Ǵɮ0H5 FIT3ǓƱ|Aɮ0)Gė˃Ɵ

83

GFIT ǕʘǴ3Ĝ˩OacuteK1THORNoumlG

ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž Production-based before-tax credits

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b30J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊntilde

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊntilde|

b-aRZn1ɥH

G

aRZn3ʌǓƱntilde1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGɯouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿƕ)aRZn1ťEgraveOacuteņaRZneacuteƀ3˹ʌ

ͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteK

ĖGćɜaRZnGG

4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDz

ucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gt

ɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40

Ϳ ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž3ǕʘǴ Production-based before-tax credit policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHGǴ

3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɯ|b3ʌƊƔdž Production-based after- tax deductions

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b0J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊƔ

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊƔ|

b-aRZn1ɥHG

aRZn3ʌǓƱƔ1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKĖGćɜaRZnGG4

aRZnƯDzʿĝƀƄ3ʌdžKDzucirc

1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥ

HGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ɣɤļɵ3džʌƊƔͿ

ǕʘǴ Production-based after- tax deductions policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHG

Ǵ3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power bonus

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKEumlGamp

3ĽŌ kWh

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƄʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWh

źľEgraveȉ˯Ǯ Market price certificates

źľG4Ǖƃ3Ǖʘ1D)

ˬŚHampQOoyM

3aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ

3ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kW_4ɮ0Gźľ-0J(ěʍ3źľEgraveȉ-Ϳłamp3˯

Ǯ3ȼĜdivideſĹźľEgraveȉKTHORNoumlG

divideUgraveČ Accelerated Depreciation

OtildeĦ3ͳK˺middot˩D

7ʌťʘUgraveČG˩ɩ ěƀƄ3UgraveČͳ4ɤ3ˀɥƀǘ3eacuteǴD

FBBƀ|b-eacuteǴƷʱͳ

3ͼˬŚG UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

3m-4_aRZn3

EgraveOacuteKUgraveČGƀƄ$3UgraveČɞKŚʻ

GșƀƄsup2ȢƀȟͳKUgraveČGǞȰK

ɥGĴ-4_UgraveČ˩ɩEgrave

ͳKdegɡȖ˖Auml1D)˟ʏG

dj

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

yacuteYj Financial gap

aRZn3˺1ƛ˞

HGyacuteYj ʱ]bn˺]bnͿEƛ˞

HGǷeumlɲɞ93Ʒ1ƛ˞0ĔTHORN

PdlOzKƊampOacute ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave Levelized electricity generation cost

QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘ

1QOoyM-ɣɤH

amp kWh3ɠķ3ǡſĹ]bn

szlig3]bnKĠƷaumlƷ

ʰƾͿĔTHORNPdlOz˺]

bnĹʗĀĎEgrave4otildeƊɞͶ3ˀɥƀ

ǘKɥ˩ʙ

• 表紙13
• 要旨13
• 目次13
• 第1章 7ヶ国の風力発電の財務コスト13
• 第2章 デンマーク13
• 第3章 ドイツ13
• 第4章 オランダ13
• 第5章 スペイン13
• 第6章 スウェーデン13
• 第7章 スイス13
• 第8章 米国13
• 付録A 変数および用語解説13

x

ƀ 6-7 KgtpTműĞ0

ƀ 7-1 K=KŬŜƊETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-2 K=KTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (MW)

ƀ 7-3 ƖƭƐƥGKUƈţ

ƀ 7-4 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 7-5 K=KƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 7-6 K=KƽŊƻąŢcopy=mMmSlt]

ƀ 7-7 K=KƽŊƻ^lJEU0

ƀ 8-1 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻŬŜƊETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-2 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻTHORNưOgraveETHƬ (GW)

ƀ 8-3 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻ^lJEUľccedil

ƀ 8-4 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻƖƭƐƥĜ

ƀ 8-5 Ŧfrac14ƽŊƻcopyąŢ=mMmSlt]

ƀ 8-6 Ŧfrac14űĞ0

1

Aring 1Auml 7Ozuumljfrac14dividearingm-1

11

2009 ƀȚŵĜ (EU) 4Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşKǝamp1 10163 MW divideʟĴ-4 9994 MW Kdivideamp (EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)3 2009ƀ1GˬOtildeş3ŀdivide1DFͶoumlɯ4 EU-4ǰņ3ʟĴ-4ʖ 2frac143ǝamp0Ʌ0)G(EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)ɪɱ1AsectĀɎʥǃaeligethȿĀʂɗǛ3ŘszligIgraveBŘŚAEligʬ3ĪͲ)ampǘ3ɡɦ1DFͶoumlɯ3˞40)G szligɪ-ͶoumlɯɯKŮ-Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bnCcedilɓŝ10)Gė˃

ƟAGͶoumlɯ3ƷŞ4ͶoumlɯƯ3PygP]bn1aRZn3ɯ˩ɩ1ĕF

)ampǨɏEȣɱʄ0ʀ˾Kƾ)GH4ͶoumlɯɯaRZn3ˬOtilde]bnſĹͶKǣ

Ƞ-ʀG-GE-F=ampͶoumlɯ3Ńuumlˊ1Ū0ɗǛ]bnEsectĀɎ

ʥAǃaelig0E-G3D0ijDz3ɚƙG1AͶoumlɯ3]bn463Ĵ3

-AaRZn1=ampěĴņɮ0)FǷʃʐ-43ɏ1ɒɏKƎG

12 frac34frac12sup2

Ƿʃʐ-4ĴSrYȗͶoumlśǟąŚʖ 26ccedilʉmiddot (IEA Wind Task26)Ͷoumlɯ3]bn131ļ+ěĴ3bʃʐKɥ7 Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3ɸ3ĎįKDŽGđdivideĴ4mZoPkUhbPbQRmbPbʟĴ-G Ͷoumlɯ]bn3˟ʏF-4Ʒ]bnʰƾ˺]bnƀɯoumlɯoumlͿ

)ampǘŅ3Ȓƭ˞ʥK˰EgraveHE3]bn3ȵHaRZnǴszligiquest-ŃĀGKDŽGƛ

˞G3aRZn-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnK˷ǥȣGamp3˞0ɂŚćfrac14ĹʗĀɯ

ĎEgrave (LCOE) Kȏ˪ampLCOE 4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3PygP]bn3Ĝ˩OacuteKɠķ1otildeƊƀɯouml1ļ+ĹʗĀampOacute-GLCOE4ɮ0Gˤɏ1ʑ)ampěʍ3ǞȰBưȰKɥ˩ʙG-GǷĽġ-4HE3ˡɏD7Ni3(ș`pU˩ɩȰƄyacuteX

j`yccedilǿȰ3 2KɥG ǷĽġ1Gccedilǿ3ņccedilȤƷŞ3ˡɏEěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnK˰EgraveampA3-

GDFacirciquestɱ1˧5ǷĽġǮ3 LCOE ccedilǿʫȁ4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴatildeƷŞěɥampmǞȰKɥěˇ3aRZn3K˺GbrvbarAring13Ĵecirc3yacute]bnK˘ampA3-GɫƧ

4Ƿʃʐ1Gyacute]bn3ȣ4Ͷoumlɯ3ʇmiddotɱɥ0J(3SrY3eumlɥ1

DFʇmiddotƺG]bnͿK˰EgraveampA3-40-G Ͷoumlɯ3yacute]bn3˩ʙ-4ͶoumlɯaRZn1Gˬʹ˺1ƛ˞HGegrave

3Ǔaelig1GccedilǿʫȁK˘1G3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʣ]bn3˰Egrave1divideěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ

aRZn3ƯDzʿeumlɥ-GĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3PdlOzK˷ǥ˽Ĵ-ɣ G]bn˞ʥ3

KǥE1G ǷĽġǮ-4= LCOE KȒƭG]bn˞ʥKʞć1˷ǥș1ǷaRZn3-ɯHampb

jo`nm1˷ǥGěđdivideĴENjAEligHampmg1ļ+đɔbKŚʻ˽Ĵ1aacute

Gȣ3PnKǥE1GěĴ3ĎEgrave˞ʥKđɔbȣͶoumlɯ3 LCOE 3ŸɮKɣ GĎįKǥE1Gș3dZ`-4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEdegǯɱǞȰKʞć1˷ǥͶouml

ɯ3ĹʗĀĎEgraveK˩ʙGș1đɔb-Śʻamp]bn˞ʥ1ļ+LCOELJŚOacute3K˷ǥɥGǞȰ31D) LCOE ŃJ)GKś˯GǰƔ3ʒ-ěđdivideĴ3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3]bn˞ʥK=˷ǥGsup2ǷĽġǮ3ȑ˞-G

2

13 uumljfrac14divideAElignp[

131 -1UacuteIgrave

Ͷoumlɯ3]bn˞ʥ4ǷƷ]bnʰƾD7˺]bn-GHEě

1ěʍ3]bn˞ʥĠ=HGǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampIuml3]bn˞ʥ4Uograve A1ʆF-G ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ņͳ3ǷƷKƛ˞$3Ȓƭ˞ʥ4Ͷ-0ŅʍŅȓ-G

Ugrave 1-1 1ʆD1Ʒʱͳ3ʢ 75Ͷ3]bn-FȟF4˘1=ampD1ʡʭʡļʅˬʹ0E71ƈˬ1G]bn-GHE3]bn4oPkmZbPˏĴ33m

g1ļ+GǑĐ]bn4aRZnŐǨ1ʄIgrave3]bnKƎeacute3ǷƷ1ĠG

KʻyacutemacrGĴAG

Ugrave 1-1 uumljfrac14divideBL0+ccedilyenccedil-1UacuteIgrave

ʱ]bn1ĈGotildeĜͿ reg3]bn1żĈGotildeĜͿ ͶŶľɀͿ

ʡʭʡ ļʅ

ȥˬOtilde ĵĸ

yacute]bn ƈˬ

]^gn

68-84 2-10 1-9 1-9 1-5 1-5 1-5 1-3

ndashndashndash 35-45 20-25 10-15 5-10 5-10 5-10 5-10

ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

ʰƾ4Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥ-ż4IgraveʚɡD7ŚǴɱIgraveŗɏȏ^wbŋʢ

)ampijŚĠ=HGŃuuml1Ġ=HG34ˊ1˩ɩɱG4˩ɩń3IgraveŗɏȏBĦordfnj3]bnʗ

-GHE3]bn4ƀƄ1D)ɮ0GampaRZnǴK Xj`y3ȵHŚ

Gsup3Ś˟ʏFK˖ŅͶoumlɯaRZn-4ƀ3ɗǛ˞-Fƕ)

ʰƾƀ]bn3ņĄKĈG10G3oumlźľ-4oumlʡʭ^wb1macrɣ Gɑ

ucircouml˚Ugrave]bn03]bnͶoumlɯaRZn-ƛ˞10GľĜG LCOE3ņccedilKĈG3yacute]bn-GͶoumlɯaRZnƈˬ3ļɵ0GyacuteȒ3ʍ͵0E

71macrGOumlD7Ƿ3Ȓƭ˞ʥAĴ1D)˒ɮ0G=amp$H1ťǴƒ-Geumlɲ1

AOumlBǷ3ƷŞ1D)Ž4ż1ņE14ěĴ3ȰlaquoʌȒAͶoumlaRZn1macr

Gyacute]bnʱͳ1ƐG x 1-14Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3˟ʏF1Ġampěʍ3]bn˞ʥƷ]bnƀʰƾyacuteŃǘʗͿ

KʆampA3-GͶoumlɯaRZn3ǰʨɱɣɤə4ouml-GampLCOEKƀɯouml-ĹʗĀGƛ˞Gɯouml4Ͷ3əɡɱɚƙD7ɚŚ3aRZn^Pn3ͶɅ3ɚƙ1ŷęHG

132 s_N3N9A

ouml4ͶoumlɯaRZnƯDzʿłGĩĦ-oumlźľ4Ĵ1D)ɮ0G3aRZn4Ͷ

oumlɯ1G]bn1ɒɏKƎěoumlźľ1GĔTHORNPdlOzK=ampA3-Gɯ

1DGĔTHORN1divideěʍ3PdlOzKAuml)Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKʄś1ĮĔ-GD1GH

E3PdlOz14ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ(FIT)ɣɤ1Ɯ ampʌͳdžaumlɣė˃SrY˯ǮG4reg3VqcG

3

x 1-1 uumljfrac14divide-1 ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

133 icirc

Ͷoumlɯ1Gɶ3Ņ=žĀHEHE4ĔTHORNB]bn3˰Egrave1Ġ0

HE4ɯƴ˗3oacuteșɱƐ1GńƟG4ʇmiddotɱɥ-Gˊ1aumlɣė˃SrY3ƴ˗4

ƕǽĺɅ3ƴ˗1ȣńƟ3Ɛż1Ū0IEA3 ldquoRenewable Energy Costs and Benefits for Society (RECaBS)rdquo aRZn-4ǥƟ3ǞȰKɥƕǽĺɅaumlɣė˃SrYɅKȣɯ3]bnEacuteɲKLJŚG (RECaBs 2007)ReCABS3ǞȰ˼1DH53ccedilǿ14ș3 53ńƟĠ=HG

ȥNtildeŃuumlɁŜucircȁWbɚ1 CO2D7 CH4Ϳ reg3ņȥȩȃɅSOxNOxD7ʠőͿ ʡʭʡoumlPy93divide]bn oumlʬ˺ǙͶ3şZajnˮȲ 41DGȿͳʗͿ

ɗǛAEligʬ3ŘszligIgraveɗǛTHORN3ĴatildeɅ-3degɥ HE3ńƟ1divideͶoumlɯ4ɗǛ3ȸB$H1sup1ɗǛEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ŷęH0Ͷoumlɯƴ˗

93ƷbZ4ĀʂɗǛ1DGɯƴ˗3bZyMPɮ0GHEszlig3ɚƙ1DFͶoumlɯ

ƴ˗reg3ɯƴ˗3EgraveOacuteNjȊ1G˞0ɚƙɣ GǷʃʐ4$3ȣ˰EgraveK˱gtampA3-

40

134 LCOEGKaacute

UhSrYʃʐdg (ECN) AcircƭampXj`ym4ǷaRZn1G

ˮȲ 4 şZajn (capacity credit) ʡʭŘŚƄ1ƤƐK0ʜı-Ͷoumlɯ1D)ƕǽĺɅHʹnj

EHGKʆȣɞAring5 şZajn 303ľĜǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ 1 GW1ťƕǽĺɅK 03GWȿEG-GşZajn1G˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

4

LCOEyacuteYj (FG) 3˟ʏF3ļɵ0)G3 ECNm4otildeƊXj`ym-Ǝeacute4Uh1Gaumlɣė˃SrY3˚ugrave3ɯAEligʬĽŌK˩ʙGamp1AcircƭHampA3

-Gɠķ ECN43mKɥUhǕƃ1ěʍaumlɣė˃SrYƸ˂3ɣɤ]bnK3ʋƄ1ugrave˧GIEAWind Task26KɯŮ-đdivide˽Ĵ3]bnȒK˟ʏAGamp3mKIcircȜƼņͶoumlɯ3]bnKȄ˳ʧ1˩ʙ-Gkamp3mKȒƭ

G34ɯƯ^PcǨszligːǨˀɥƀǘƷ]bnʰƾaRZn3˺

3ɚƙ)ampmĀ3amp3vg0E71Ɓʜ0vg-GěĴD7==0ˠ

iacuteiquestiacute13mKɥ-$3ȗ˃ŅɥƟǔīHGAring5Xj`y

mKǔ˨ͶoumlɯaRZn3ěˠiacuteiquestiacute1ƕ==0ƴ˗ɱyacuteɱvg1ɥ-

GD1amp3D0Ȅ0m4Ʒ]bnʱͳ3˩ʙ3gt0Eěʍ3ɥ3ɚƙByacuteưȠ

0E71ĴQOoyM3PdlOzK˷ǥG-˞-G

135 GK|yenfrac12-N3B

Xj`ybjo`nKɥͶoumlɯ3]bnK˳ʧ1˩ʙG$3szligvgKUograve A1ʆ3bjo`nm4 6 3Z`n-ȒƭHǰeacute3 3 3Z`n4ɚŚ3Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3˩ʙ1ƛ˞0˳ʧƥĽKNjAEligGamp3A3-G ǰeacute3Z`n4ƀșŃuuml3013ŃǘKŚGA3-GH14aRZn3ɚƙƷ]b

nʱͳǑĐ]bnʱͳĎȲ2szligːǨ1ɔEampǨ]bn˩ʙ3˩ɩťǴĠ=HGƷ]b

nǑĐ]bn4ěʍ3Ȓƭ˞ʥ3ʱͳ˘-GH4ś3]bn3Ÿɮ3ŅĴȣ3

amp3ƥĽKNjAEligHG=amp3Z`n1DFPyŃuuml]bnŀK˷ǥGampͿOumleuml

ɲɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞ0E71OumlǷȣɞaRZn1macrGyacutebZKēǧGampͿ)

ampěʍ3yacuteŃǘKŚG-GE13Xj`ym4ĴBŵ3ȰlaquoʌKʾƬampA

3-G ƀșŃuuml13Z`n14ʰƾĸdegʡʭ]bn)ampƀijŚŃuuml-ȒƭHG

ěʍɶĠ=HFHEK˳ccedil͵ěĴ-ȣ-GD1G=amp-ȥǛBʧ

ȪŚ˞įŋʢ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnʗͿKŚʻG ʖ 33Z`nǕʘ13-4ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT)ʌͳdž$3reg3PdlOzKȏ˪G

3m3U`ȿʌ3EacuteɲKaRZn3Xj`y1ŚampFɑiacuteĎȲ31

ampFG-G3THORNoumlvgK$3ș3Z`n1AumlͶoumlɯaRZn3 LCOE Bɯ3yacuteYj (FG) KȪŚGTHORNouml―aeligouml13Z`n4$3ʫȁ3 LCOE FGK˘ampA3-˩ʙ-ɥampŃǘK=Gś3Xj`y3˩ʙ4aRZn3Xj`y

13D7LCOEXj`y13Z`n-˖

136 LCOE FGYacuteEgrave

LCOE FG4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEXj`yK˩ʙampʫȁ-GampĞɶ3ʌƊƔǷeumlɲɞKLCOE FG3otildeƊɞɥGraquo LCOE FG14ě3˩ʙ1ɮ0GXj`y3ȵHKĠGH1sup21ȑ˷G ż3ľĜLCOE3Ľġ14ƷǓaeligƀ]bnȿEgraveUgraveČD7ƸampotildeƊɞAumlJHGƕ)

3Ȃʩgtatilde1G LCOE 3˩ʙOacute4ƷǓaelig3ƾccedilotildeĜszligǴ3otildeƊʌƊƔXj`yʱͳKeȜģɠķEgraveOacute (NPV) G31ƛ˞0ɣɤCcedilœeumlɲŚʻHGLCOE3˩ʙ-4ɯG4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɚecirc1ɥHGPdlOzE3ĔTHORN3Xj`yKʾƬ0

ECN3 LCOE˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

ĎȲ2 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4ǑĐ]bnKaRZnƈʝǴ1ʄIgraveKĴʻyacutemacrGľĜ3gt3]b

nKĠamp ĎȲ3 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4szlig3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKɑiacute13sup3Śamp=Feumlɥė˃0szlig3ȿʌ3ơƣKřszlig1ĖEH

GD0Xj`yăccedil1œķG-G

5

H41ɠķ FG3˩ʙ-4Ͷoumlɯ1ijDz3ɯɱPdlOz3Xj`yfynYacute˖Ʒʌļɵ3ƷugraveƭʗͿKʾƬG3Śʻ1ļ+brvbarś FG1D)ěĴ3 LCOEɯ0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ɱPdlOz1DFśɠHampeumlɲ3K˘G

ECNm3 FG˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

˫3D1ʌƊƔ3ƀXj`y14ouml3łĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3˚ugraveƱƮD7P

dlOzƀʰƾȽeumlƢǓƱ0E71yacuteľ3ȿEgraveUgraveČeumlődž3ʌƊƔͳ

E3Xj`yĠ=HG x 1-24LCOEƖEHampĔTHORNoumlźľĔTHORNFITAEligʬĽŌʗͿPdlOzD7yacuteYj

3EcircKʆampA3-G3IJ1ʆD1FGOacuteȜ3ľĜ4aRZnɯʿ3 LCOEK31ƛ˞0ĔTHORNƖEH0)ampƧģ-F3ľĜ4 LCOE KG3ăccedil0ĔTHORNƖEHampKʆĨG

x 1minus2 aringmH7Bmacrs_N3N9AampgtKQ-1Agravedeg

ʌƊƔ3Xj`yt

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ ndash

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

FG =

1 ndash ʌɞ times ƀʰƾ t ndash ʌɞ times euml t + ʌyacute3ȿEgraveUgraveČ t

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ +

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

LCOE =

6

14 rkzoumlRuumljfrac14divide-1

șʛ-4 Ĵ3aRZn3ǎugraveKGĴatildeƷŞ1)3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKđdivideamp 7Ĵ3Ĵecirc1ʆH14 ECN3mǞȰ˼KɥG˞0Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3ŃǘKŅĴ-ȣG1DFěĴ3ccedilFͶoumlɯaRZn3|bP]bnǥʄ10Geumlɥ

ė˃0mgEHGampȳͶoumlɯ3]bn4˳ʆ0ĽġHamp]bnmg3

Ūǘ3^KĠG

15 vQ5otildeordm

3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnƟ˃0E71yacutemgszligiquest3ȜʄDzucircƟKaeligǽGF˯ǥD

ampmgfb4ŅʍŅȓ-FĽġHampmg34ĴD7mgfb1DFɮ0)G

Aring5ĽġHamp]bn3mg42008 ƀ3ͳ-˘ampɠķEgraveȉK˘G3ŚEgraveȉǥʄ-0brvbarAringAG=ampsup21ǀGvgA2008 ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlaRZnK˘amp3A3-Gś14 2008ƀntilde1ɯȲHǓƱJHampbrvbarAringKĠGė˃ƟGmgEHGampampɉķɱ0ɿɹKIcircȜG-0)ampE1 IEA Task264ěĴ3deg˘ɱ013aRZnK˘KƧIJampA3-GͶoumlɯ3ś3]bn4^PnaRZn1D)ɮ0G

ƕ)sup23mg4ěĴ3szligˊɱɛȯ˷ǥ3amp3gt1ʆampA3-3ɏ1ɫƧ-G

16 tzGKLCOErmicroQ1

Ͷoumlɯ3Ĵecirc3]bnļǷampaRZn-4đɔb13Ĥ8ͿȣHG

3đɔb4ěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3deg˘ɱ0Ȓƭ˞ʥK˘A3-ƴ˗ɱvgaRZn3ɚƙƟ

˃Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bnʰƾʗͿyacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞ

ǴĴ3ʌɞʗͿ3ǞĠ=HGđɔb-4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘKńG=ampͶoumlɯ

KǓǎGĕFʩgt4Ĵ1D)ɮ0GampͶoumlɯǕʘBPdlOzAĠ0ƕ)đɔ

b-4 LCOE3˩ʙʫȁ3gtK˘ʆG Ĵecirc3ƴ˗ɱvgKUgrave 1-21ʆĎȲ4đɔb-43ěvgKszlig3Ĵ1Ga

RZn3ˬOtildeş3divideſĹ˩ʙGđɔb3ƴ˗ɱvg3OacuteA3˘1ʆF

2008 ƀ3ˬOtildeşȣɱņ)ampbQRmʟĴ$HH 98MW85MWͿ-ƄĜņ0)G7 Ĵ- 2008 ƀ1śǟHampdeg˘ɱ0aRZnKŅŪ0FAēǧ-GD1đɔb3divide14Ĵatilde3ʱSrYş-40aRZn3ˬOtildeşKɥGđɔb3aRZ

nȒʝ14==0Ƹ˂G$3ƸĴecirc3 LCOE G4 FG ˩ʙ1ƐG40ɏKƿǐG34˞-GđɔbNjAEligG342008 ƀ3Ĵecirc3ʫȁKȣGamp3ˊɱ0ɏ10 Ugrave 1-3 4Ĵecirc3yacutevgKʆampA3-Gě3yacutevg1szlig3Ĵ3ʼnOacuteKđɔ

b3OacuteɥGYacute1ampD1đɔb3˩ʙOacuteĴecirc3 LCOE B FG 3ʫȁ1ƐG40

ECN m-4otildeƊɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞKɥGǷdivideſĹ]bn (WACC) A3˘1ʆGWACC 4˜ǘ3yacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞĴ3ʌɞͿKyacute]bnszligiquestK˷ǥGćɂŚļɆ1ĠG Ugrave 1-41ĴecircD7đɔb3 LCOE FG3ʫȁKʆ3ʫȁ142008ƀ3 LCOEyacuteYj

3˩ʙʫȁKĠG3ʫȁ4Ĵecirc3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnszligiquestK˘ampʆampA3-G3Ͷ

oumlɯaRZn-Aś3 LCOE4ľƯaRZn1D)ɮ0)G

ĎȲ4 Ugrave 1-33mĀ3sup3Ś3amp3THORNoumlmg43gt-ʆG1ɫƧraquo LCOE FG3ʫȁ4

ʟo3Ǟ-ʆG

7

Ugrave 1-2 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divideOslashfrac12JFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h b

P bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b Ͷ^Pc(MW) ĎȲ5 23 20 30 20 24 20 17 21

Ͷļǘ 7 5 5 15 41 6 50 34 szligːǨ 2695 2260 2200 2150 2600 1750 3066 2628 ƷĎȲ6(eurokW) 1250 1373 1325 1250 1591 1790 1377 1449 ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 00 15 00 00 16 00 00 06 reg3]bn

euroMWhͿ 3 0 10 3 0 0 0 1

ʰƾijŚͿ(euroMWh) 000 4633 3139 000 001 000 860 629

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 12 0 13 20 11 31 5 11

njʰƾʱͳ

(euroMWh) 12 21 28 20 11 31 7 13

đɔb divide 61 38 57 114 366 46 318 NA

Ugrave 1-3 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14dividearingmJFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h bP

bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 55 50 70 50 50 60 50 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 110 95 150 100 120 70 75 100 Oumlyacute3otildeĜͿ 80 70 80 80 87 70 0 80 Ƿ3otildeĜͿ 20 30 20 20 13 30 100 20 ǴƀͿ 13 13 15 15 20 20 15 15 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 250 298 255 300 280 210 389 280

WACCͿ 52 56 60 59 47 49 75 49

Ugrave 1-4 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divide LCOE FGyuml2008Ā

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

bPb 120 (167) oPk 5 (7) Uh 94 (131) ʟĴ ndash1 (ndash1) oPk 85 (118) bPb ndash1 (ndash1) bP 83 (115) Uh ndash3 (ndash4)

bQRm 67 (93) bP ndash3 (ndash4) ʟĴ 65 (91) mZ ndash6 (ndash8)

mZ 61 (85) bQRm ndash8 (ndash11) đɔb 68 (95) đɔb NA

Ugrave 1-41ʆampD1Ĵecirc3 LCOE4bPb3 120MWh167oMWhͿĎȲ7EmZ3 61MWh85oMWhͿ=-Gđɔb3 LCOE4 68MWh95oMWhͿLJŚGěĴ3 LCOE ɮ0)G34Ĵecirc3ɯoumlʰƾǓaeligƷ]bn˺ǞȰ31DGA3-Gș1ěĴ3 LCOE1HE3vgĒltƐKDŽG

ĎȲ5 DF˳Ͷoumlɯ]bnccedilǿ14gɷƑtzſĹͶ)amp˞0vgKĠSrYAElig

ʬ1Gǥʄ0sup3ŚKĠG10G1ʆampLJŚOacute4ǷǮ1ʆampsup2ń3ƴ˗BĴşǦ1ȣ-GD

1ș3ćʣ0shyȓ3gtKʆA3G ĎȲ6 Yacute1ampD1Ʒ]bnD7aRZnƈˬ4 2008ƀ3A3sup3ŚGś14Ʒ]bnͶ3

ɯȲʗͿ14 2008ƀsup2ntilde3ǘŒĠ=HGė˃ƟG ĎȲ7 ɐǯn 1o139-njʙ

8

17 LCOEzoacuteplusmnecirc

ŅĴccedilǿ-4ěĴ1G 43˞0]bnvg3 LCOE93ƐKDŽ)ampĴecirc1 LCOEKLJŚ63]bnvgKĴecirc3Oacute$3reg3vgKđɔb3Oacuteamp3ccedilǿ14

|bPɂŚļɆđɔb3vgOacuteͿȣampĴecirc3THORNoumlvg3ƐKegraveFamp

3ŅĴccedilǿ-ȏ˯amp˞0vg14ɯoumlƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnKĠ

ampș13ʫȁKszlig3Ĵ3-ȣamp AringěĴ3szligːǨ3 LCOE 93ƐKx 1-3 1ʆ3IJ4 3 3ǥʄ0˱bKȣ

ampA3-G=Ɍˎ3Ȍ[y4Yacute1Ugrave 1-4 -ʆampěĴ3 LCOE K˘A3-szligTHORNoumlvgKĴecirc1ʆGș1ʳ4đɔbKʆA3-|bP3 LCOEK 68MWhszligvgKđɔb3OacuteG=ampʲˎ3jn4ȼĜbKʆA3-szligːǨKĴecirc3Oacute

$3reg3vgKđɔb3OacuteG x 1-31-6 4$HHɯouml˫đɔͿƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnK˘G

Ĵecirc3 LCOEɌˎ3Ȍ[yͿđɔb3 LCOEʳͿ43IJ-AŚ˞0]bnvg4ěIJ-ɮ0)FHKV-ccedilFǦʆG

x 1-3 rmicroQ1tzfrac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀkwIumlsect

x 1-4 rmicroQ1tzccedil-1kwIumlsect

9

x 1-5 rmicroQ1tzigraveeacuteETHaeligkwIumlsect

x 1-6 rmicroQ1tzccedilntildeacirciacute-1kwIumlsect

ěĴ3˞0Ͷoumlɯ]bn3vg34sup23D1˷ǥ-GampH1E0Ϳ frac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀăszligːǨ3Ĵ1DG14==0aacuteD7Iumlecirc3˞įƐ

GAring5oPk-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ1D)aRZnɯ4ͶɅ3 Ć1ƹB

EHGmZ-4Ĵatilde3ǵɯ3^PnKɯGntilde1Ͷ3ʹˬ˩1D)Ǡœ3Ͷ

oumlɯ^Pn3ˬOtildeǭǝEumlHGľĜAF$3ʫȁĴatilde3eacuteǴ3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn3

2008ƀ1ˬOtildeǭǝ3ť0)GbPb-4ű3NZdbEHGamp2008ƀ1śǟHampɯaRZn3ǘ4ŚHampA310)GʟĴ14Uumlccedil1ˍō0ͶɅ

KDzGaRZn^PnǘŅGʳ93NZdbeumlɥė˃ɞEHGamp

aRZnɥ^PnȪŚ14FFľĜ1D)4ɯ3aeligoumlƶiacuteKGKƖ00)

GǞbQRm-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ4Ƿʃʐ3reg3Ĵ4ĪͲ10)0Uh-4

FIT3ĽŌ3szligːǨ3ǰņOacute-ȪEHGampǰ0^PnKɯampFǰǝ3ƴ˗KɥampFGyacutePdlOzŪ00)Gė˃ƟG

ccedil-1ăƷ]bn4Ĵ1D)˒ɮ0GmZ-AUh-AszligːǨ1ļ+

ugraveƭ3 FITĽŌͶ3Ƹ1Ɛƕ)aRZn3Ʒ]bn1ƐGmZ-4szligːǨampF3˚ugrave3ͳKǰņ1Gampņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶUacuteYacute

HGǞUh-4˚ugraveKszligːǨ3ʜıatildeGampDF]bn3ŘͶ

10

ƴ˗ˡˡHGmZ-4oumlʡʭ93ʡ]bn)ampͶoumlɯaRZn3

ŨTHORN]bn34aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZn3So_oumlȸʿͿ

ǓƱ)G$3ampmZ3ʡ]bn4Ʒ]bn1Ġ=H0bPo

Pk$3reg33Ĵ-4ʡ]bn$3reg3ʡʭŀƍ]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿǓ

Ʊ)Famp)H4Ʒ]bn1ĠEHGbQRm14Ʒ]bn3ethȿ

ė˃10GD0ćʣĀHampʡʭʡưGoPk-4ͶoumlɯͶɅ3 Ć

1ƼņampʫȁɯbrvbarȐʿ4$3˚UgraveưȠŅ3aRZn-gɷƑ3ņ0ͶK

DFľƯ1ˬʹGKƖ00)GƷ]bn4gɷƑD7tz3ǘOacuteņ

0GͿbPb-4ű3ͶoumlɯaRZnɥ^Pn93NZdb=ampˠ

ȕ3ʪȽKȘGampƷ]bn0)G ʟĴ-4ņˠȕ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥEacuteɲ4ɚ1Ͷ3THORN1EcircFɯȲˠȕ

ņ0G1HEgraveȉotildeƊHG˯ǥHGʟĴ3QOoyM4đɔbD

FAaRZnˠȕņƷ]bnfrac12ampʟĴ3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4ǘotildeƊĖEHG

ơƣGˉģȻ1bQRm-4aRZn3ˠȕņ0)AEgraveȉ3otildeƊ

3ơƣ40H4 2008ƀ3bQRm3ˬʹ]bnmampaRZnşȣŪ0)ampamp-ė˃ƟG

igraveeacuteETHaeligăěĴʆampʰƾ3mg4ʄśƟşǦ1Iacuteͱ-0ǘOacute-G

mZ-4żͶoumlɯaRZn3OumlȖʿ4 5Έ10 ƀ3Ǵɱʰƾ^wbŋʢKƛ˞FH4ƀʢ 25kWĽġHGUh-4ʰƾ14żaRZnszligiquest-Ś3EgraveȉHG^wbŋʢ]bnD7ĸdegĠ=HFĽġH

G]bn45Έ23kWņoPk-Aǰfrac12 5ƀ3řszlig0^wbŋʢƛ˞HGľĜGbPb-4ʰƾ3ʪEHGuacuteNZd`wlO

3ĪͲ0E71Ͷ3ɼȧBcentȵ1D)reg3ĴDFʰƾ0)GʟĴ3

ʰƾ4ƀŨTHORNHampņˠȕ0aRZn-4ſĹfrac120)GD-GʟĴ-4

YN~jZbzoG4ɯȗ3ĦKordfnjGǨǴǣG˯ƻAcedilEHF

ƕ)ĽġHGmg3ʰƾ4ũ˰EgraveHGė˃ƟGoPk-AOtildeĦ3ordfnj

ƛ˞HGampũˠȕaRZn-4ʰƾ0)G=ampoPk4szligiquest3

ʰƾ3˞0Ȓƭ˞ʥͳ0ŚǴɱɠĸˡŤ3]bnĽġHGbQRm

-4ʰƾaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒ɮ0)G ccedilntildeacirciacute-1ăͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bn4ʟĴsup2ń3Ĵ-4ĝʋƄ-Gm

ZoPkUh-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿub`n1ļ+Ͷouml

ɯaRZn3K˺Goumlmiddotʇ-GľĜKż4aRZn$3A31D

)K˺GmZbQRm-4ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˊɱ1frac12

bZ3Ʒȗ˟0H$HaRZn33ȪŚ1ēǧHGʟĴsup2ń33Ĵ-

AaRZn3˺3Oumlȣɞ40)Fż4 60Έ87-G ʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn˺ǞȰ4(E5Aringńɱ-G2008 ƀ14ʟĴ3Ņ3aRZnż1ˇŹǷȣɞ55 100Ϳ-˺HaRZn1ļ+Ouml4lte-)ampH4Ǖƃ3yacute3˚ugraveiacuteƄ3amp-F3iacuteƄ1DFgjZb

SZPlO13ʀEHGSZPlOyMPpbȇƉɯ˖1DGǷ˺Ϳ1ɚĀHampƏƩ

ƞŀampgjZbSZPlOyMPpbUacuteYacuteHampampʟĴ-4regĴDFAǷ]bn

0)G0J(gjZbSZPlO4żOumlDFAͿ=ampʟĴ-4Ouml1D

G˺1D)aRZn3ɅKʄIgraveampb-4aRZn-40Ȱlaquo|-

3OumlK)GľĜ)amp =-3=x 1-31-61ʆamp 43˞0]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥD7ěĴ3 LCOEđɔ

b3 LCOEKx 1-71ʆ

11

x 1-7 rmicroQ1tzordfUacuteIgravekwIumlsect

x 1-8 4˞0]bnŃǘ3 LCOE 93ƐKE1ȣȏ˪Gamp1˞0]bnvgKĴecirc-40[1G3IJ-4ěĴ3]bnŃǘ3ƐD7đɔbȣampěĴ3 LCOE3ņKʆGȌ[y4ěĴ3 LCOE KŀdivideGOacuteKʆʲ3Ȍ[y4đɔbDFAěĴ3 LCOE Kfrac12GOacuteKʆ˞0]bnvgKLCOE đɔbDFŀdivideampʋƄȌ[yͿ3ņ1E1ʆGAring5ɯouml3ǰũŃǘ4bPbĽġampǘOacute-G

3Ĵ3ʰƾƷ]bnDFA LCOE KŀdivideG3ǰfrac12OacuteEǰOacute=-3Ĵecirc3THORNoumlvg3ʜıEɯoumlD7Ʒ]bn LCOE 1ǰAƐampJGH4ˊ1Đ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOEƨƄccedilǿˈG (IEA 2010 Cory and Schwabe 2009)ˉģȻ1ĽġHampʰƾ3ʜı4đɔbȣƷ]bn˺]bnDFA LCOE ŀdivide1ƐG3E ʰƾmg3ʄśƟeumlɥė˃Ɵƕ)THORNoumlvg3Ĵ1DG3ņLCOELJŚOacute3ȜʄƟKEHampA31ampė˃ƟGʰƾ1įGŸɮKȿEampE0Gccedilǿ

ƛ˞-GʾEHG

x 1-8 tzSUacute-1JFQ5 LCOEoslash

12

18 rkzacuteRuumljfrac14divide-1

ECN3m1DF-0ȳ1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯƯ3 LCOEKLJŚG-GraquoɠǨɏ-eumlɥ-GȳaRZn3mg4EHFɚ1Ĵecirc3 LCOE KLJŚG31ƛ˞0THORNoumlŃǘ3řszlig0mgƉGƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ1GĴecirc3 LCOE ȣ4˖)E$3đɔbAˬ0sup23Ugrave 1-5 D7 1-6 1ĽġHG]bn˺3mg3KʆɫƧmZ-4ʡʭ93ʡD7ȷƂz3ƛ˞ƟKʇmiddotɱɥGamp

aRZn3ɯȐʿHKƺ0-G3ccedilǿ-ɥampm4aR

Zn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏ1ʑ)ampA3-GampmZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF1ēǧ0m

Āccedilǿ-4Aumlɥ0)ampHE3ʡʭʡ]bnKĠG-mZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF4

ʢ 3000kW10Gx 1-71HE3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1˟ʏA)amp LCOEyacuteYjKʆ

Ugrave 1-5 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+fOslashfrac12JFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn aRZn3ɛȯ 2007ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF

ʓŶƀ 2007ƀ 2010ƀƔĄ ɚŚH ɯƯ^Pc(MW) 20 23 50

Ͷļǘ 60 90 12 szligːǨ 3350 3800 3700 Ʒ(eurokW) 3315 1883 3230

ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 0 0 0 reg3]bn(euroMWh) 11 0 0 ʰƾijŚͿ

(euroMWh) 149 0 123

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 0 24 0

njʰƾʱͳ(euroMWh) 44 24 33

ˀɥƀǘ 15 25 20

x 1-6 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+faringmJFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 45 65 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 120 112 150 OumlotildeĜͿ 50 26 70 ǷotildeĜͿ 50 74 30 ǴƀͿ 15 13 12 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 255 250 298

WACCͿ 79 92 77

Ugrave 1-7 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+f LCOEthornFG

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

Prinses Amalia 166 (231) oPkˊcurrenɂ NA oPkˊcurrenɂ 156 (217) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 6 (8) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 88 (122) Prinses Amalia 5 (7)

13

19 T LCOEYacuteEgravesup2

LCOE4==0ɶɱuumlȗD7˸ʿ3amp1˩ʙHGˊźȤǕʘȪŚʿƷŞaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿʗě3ɚŚ3qcKɄamp LCOE KeumlɥGamp) LCOE 1AumlJHGưȰ4ȓ-40LCOEK3ʋƄ˳LJŚGG43ʋƄ3sup3Śƛ˞4AumlɥG˩ʙǞȰ1D)==-FH LCOE 3ʫȁ1˒ƐG3ampecirc3 LCOE ˩ʙǞȰK=-3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECNmD7ǞȰťȣsup21˷ǥG Aring5ș˩ɩ`pU-4Ʒ]bn3ɠķOacuteD7ʇmiddotɱotildeƊɞKɥotildeFƊampƀ]bn3ſ

Ĺ1ļ+ćʣĀampdeg˘OacuteKɥ LCOE K˟ʏAGľĜG3Ni-4OumlǷȣɞOumlǷ]bnǴȰlaquoʌ)ampǥʄ0ɅʄIgraveǼacute3sup3Ś0H0$3degJF3ćʣ

0ǞȰ-4otildeƊɞLOacute3gtKɥF$H1D)yacuteưȠ3ɚƙKszlig˘GIEA 3Projected Costs of Generation Electricityrdquo (IEA2010) D7IEA World Energy Outlook 2009rdquo (IEA 2009) 43NiKɥFsup23Ɖ1DF LCOEK˩ʙG

3Ni-4IEA 4otildeƊɞKʇmiddotɱɅ]bn13˘G3]bn4ʇmiddotszligiquestɚŚ

3ƴ˗1ƷG1ƺ]bnK˘ (IEA2010)3ʇmiddotɱ˟ĸEIEA4otildeƊɞ 5Έ10KɥF5KȣɱŘŚɱ0ɢĿ1GOumlyacuteŰ˖bZ3frac12ƷŞeumlɥ-Gɞ1310K˒ʪȽɱƴ˗ɱbZD7EgraveȉbZ1ɷGƷŞ3Ʒ]bn13G (IEA2010)DFćʣĀampș˩ɩ`pU1DFTHORNoumlvg3ǘKǰũ1˳ʧƄ1D)ěʍ3ɯĺ3 LCOE KşǦ1ȣG-G H41 ɯȐʿ4 ECNm3D0Ƅ0Xj`ymKAuml)ɚŚ3aRZn

ě3 LCOE0E71ȜģɠķEgraveOacuteatildeĔɲɞȽǴ)ampreg3yacuteƿȔK˰EgraveG3m1˜ǘ3ƯDzʿ3ǥʄ0˺3ntildeNjǼacuteʌ3Ɛ$3reg3ĔTHORNG4]bn3ƐKĠ

GľĜAGǨ143mKɥegrave3ɉķɱ0]bn3ȵHK˰EgraveampFparaȐ3ɚŚ3

aRZn93ƷKė˃1GeumlɲƖEHGD0SrYEgraveȉKȪŚampFG(Harper et al 2007)3˳ʧ0ǞȰKɥampľĜƷ]bnBƀʪ-0ǘŅ3˞į LCOE 1ƐG10GaRZnƈˬ3ǰʨɱ0ȪŚȖ4ƷŞ1GampͶoumlɯ3ʮʯɱ0ˬʹKė˃1G]bn3OacuteKɡ˥

G14ƷŞ3ˡɏKɡ˥G˞-G Aring3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECN m4ƾccedilƷŞ1ƯŚ3Ƿeumlɲɞ (ROE) KIgrave˯aR

ZnȢ1 LCOEK˰EgraveGamp3Ƅ0Xj`ym-GYacute1ampD1ECN3Xj`ymKE1˳ʧ0A31G-ǷD7OumleumlőKƾ˺ȒKǥʄ1˘-

G=ampͶoumlɯ3]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏE˘-aRZnKGamp

3ĔTHORN3ȵH-ɸȡ0H50E0Ͷoumlɯ]bnK˟ʏG-G

110 LCOEYacuteEgraveocircicedilplusmnecirc

Ugrave 1-8 4otildeƊɞ LCOE ǞȰKȣampA3-GXj`yccedilǿ3ćʣ0ǞȰƄ0ǞȰ3ǞKɥ3otildeƊɞ1 LCOE K˟ʏFreg3egrave3]bnvgKě3đɔb1ɔEŚampE1HEʿ3ǞȰ1D)đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿKɣ GotildeƊɞK˘G

t=1Tsum Ʒ t + ʰƾ t + ɗǛ t + Ɏʥ]bn t + ǑĐ t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

LCOE =

t=1Tsum ɯouml t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

Ϳ

14

ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3ˡɏELdeg˘ɱ0otildeƊɞ4Ȥ3aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿG4ƷŞ3ˡɏ1ʑ

)ampotildeƊɞ3OacuteDFfrac120GtimesğGIEA2010 1DH5ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3otildeƊɞfrac120)Gɡɦ4bZŪǘ3ȤƷŞ-40ǘŅ3IumllaquoƷŞ1ccedilǗHGampɷGbZ˺]bn

Ū00Gamp-G$H1sup1ʇmiddotɱˡɏE3 LCOE 3˟ʏFAȤƷŞ3˟ʏFDFAfrac120Gtimesğ1G

Ugrave 1-8 icedil LCOEsup2plusmnecirc

ǞȰͽˡɏ ˡɏ ˺]

bn3Ʋ ɥ m

otildeƊɞ3

ʜı

otildeƊɞ3ʜı

1G LCOE

đɔb3

LCOEKɣ GotildeƊɞ

ș`pU ˩ɩ3ćʣ˩ʙ

agraveɱʇmiddotɱ ƷŞ3ˡɏ

otildeƊɞ1 ĠG IEA2010 5Έ10

53Έ70MWh

IEA3ǞȰͿ

95 IEA3ǞȰͿ

ƄXj`

yccedilǿ

aRZn ɯbrvbarȐʿG

4ȤƷŞ ǥʄ1Śʻ ECN2008 75Έ15

(ROE) 64Έ76

MWh 10

ECN3ǞȰͿ

reg3szlig3Ńǘ1đɔb3ntildeNjǼacuteKɥ Ƿccedilǿ-ĽġHamp ROE3ʜı1ļ+

Ugrave 1-8 1ʆD1(E3Ni-ALotildeƊɞ3 LCOE Oacute1˒ƐG95otildeƊɞ4ʇmiddot3ˡɏK˘ʞɬ0˩ʙȰKɥđɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿK˩ʙG31ƛ˞0Oacute-Gƕ)Ƿʃʐ3đdivide˽ĴĽġampmg1ļ+0E3otildeƊɞ4ǰņOacute1+4-F

IEA-43ʜıK 5Έ10GH4ʞɬĀampʇmiddotɱ˩ɩǞȰKɥƄXj`yưȰ3ordmOacuteKǥE1ampA3-G 1frac12Ǟ3otildeƊɞNjȊHampŽ3ǰAfrac12OacuteͿˊƷŞ3bK˘amp1ɥEHGƕ)

LCOEK˩ʙG14=ampͶoumlɯ3 LCOEKreg3Ʌ3 LCOEȣG14aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏG4DFƁoumlʡʭ|3ˡɏ3(E1ʑ)GKǥʄ1GėȘ-G

otildeƊɞ3Ƹ4$3ˡɏ1ťƜGdz=LCOEK˘ěʍ3ƉKɥGľĜ4ʑˆGˡɏotildeƊɞ$3reg3vg3OacuteKǥʄ1˥Gƛ˞HG

111 Iumlatilde

IEAWind Task263ʫȁELCOEĴ1D)ņɮ0)GJG33ƄĜ4ɯoumlƷɥ˺)ampě]bn3Ɛ1DGA3HGcurrenƦFĴŞ3 LCOE3Ÿɮ1ǰAƐamp34Ƿɱ0ͶȯG4Ͷ3ƴ˗shyȓ1ļ+currenɂHGɯouml-G=amp

ǷɱǓaeligD7ͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ǽacuteņɮ0GEźľoumlAͶoumlɯ3]bnszligiquest

1˒ƐGE1ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾAěĴ-˒ɮ0FH LCOE 1ņ1Ɛamp 63ɂŚļɆ-SrY3]bnszligˊK˘ LCOE 3Ɵ4ĴBɶɱ˸ʿ$3reg3eumlɥʿ3

-ćʣ0ȣ-GD1ƝJHGLCOE3ěʍ3˩ʙ3ˡɏE3D10HampKȜʄ1ɡ˥Gƛ˞GLCOE4ɪaacute-Aordfnjė˃0˩ʙ-A0IɚŚ3qc1ɥHGDzɲ-Eacuteeuml0k-Gƕ)ȣD7$3ʫȁ3˥14ɫƧGdz=

rOtildemiddot

Cory and Schwabe 2010 ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financial Variablesrdquo httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2009) ldquoThe Economics of Wind Energy A Report by the European Wind

15

Energy Associationrdquo March 2009 Available at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentspublicationsreportsEconomics_of _Wind_Main_Report_FINAL-lrpdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2010) ldquoWind in Power 2009 European Statisticsrdquo The European Wind Energy Association February 2010 Accessed at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentsstatistics100401_General_Stats_20 09pdf

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review and Comparative Analysisrdquo Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 Accessed at httpeetdlblgoveaempreports63434pdf

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2006) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2006rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2006weo2006pdf

IEA (2008) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2008rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2008weo2008pdf

IEA (2009) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2009rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgWbookshopaddaspxid=388

IEA (2010) ldquoProjected Costs of Generating Electricityrdquo 2010 Edition Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgpublicationsfree_new_DescaspPUBS_ID=2207

RECaBs (2007) ldquoRECaBs Interactive Renewable Energy Calculatorrdquo Renewable Energy Calculator Accessed August 2010 at httpwwwrecabsorg

Wiser R Bolinger M (2010) ldquo2009 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy August 2010 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs2009_wind_technologies_market_reportpdf

16

Aring 2Auml NDQ+

21 NDQ+uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ȑ˞0E71]bn3ɚƙKG-

4 2008 ƀ3D7ȳͶoumlɯƴ˗1GĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1ɒɏKƎG

211 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

2008ƀǶ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ĝ˩ 3179MW 2756MWȳ 423MWͿ-H4 2007ƀǶ3ˬOtildeş1ťʢ 1252000ƀ3ˬOtildeşDFA 32ŀdivideG2001ƀE 2008ƀ=-1ŀdivideampˬOtildeş3ʢĄǘ4ȳͶoumlɯ1DGA3-G2008 ƀ1ȳ-ƈˬ3ȳQOoyM4 3F(64 2009ƀ1řƭA64 2010ƀʈ1ŐGcurrenŚ-GˮȲ 5 x 2-1 1ʆD1ŨTHORN3Ƅ4Ǵ15EņJG2001ƀE 2003ƀ1

ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 725MW ŀdivideamp2004 ƀE 2007 ƀ=-4 8MW ŀdivideamp10H4 2003 ƀ1śǟHampaRZn3ǕɱǓǎ˩ɩņŽ1ȿͳHampʫȁ-GHK˚amp1 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampǝamp0ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFͶ3ƈˬǝamp1ȲɶHG10)amp2008ƀ3 FITŨTHORNƔ2010ƀ 7DZǶ=-1Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 280MWŀdivideG (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ1D)mZ3ʱoumlȸ3ʢ 20AEligʬHG

x 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

ˮȲ 5 Roslashdsand IIȳͶoumlɯƯ4 2010ƀ 8DZ1ŐG

17

mZ4ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ƀșɶȔKŚ0EU 3˞Ȩ1DH5mZ4 2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯ-ʱSrYȸ3 30Kamp3˩ɩKʘŚ0H50E0EU-4szlig3divideɳĴ13aumlɣė˃SrY3ɶȔOacuteKƭGamp3˖uuml˩ɩ3AcircƭKʻyacutemacrFm

Z4 2010ƀ 6DZ1Ĵ3˖uuml˩ɩKɯ˘G3˩ɩ-42020ƀ=-1ˬOtildeşKʢ 4 GW$H1D)Ͷoumlɯ4 11000 GWh10GcurrenƦHG=ampʱş3 3ccedil3 1D7ouml3ʢ 50Kȳ1ˬʹGͶEƖGcurrenƦHG (Kemin 2010)(0gt12009ƀ3ɯouml4ʢ 6700 MWh-G2010 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3currenɂ4ěȚŵdivideɳĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010) ʁǴɶȔ2008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MW3divide0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ˬ

Otildeş 350 MW3ǝˬŚEHG3ɶȔOacute3Ąccedil4Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ1D)ƭA3-$H1D)ʦʏş4 175 MWŀdivideG10GĸǞ3˩ɩƎŬ42012ƀ=-1 350MW1divideş 150 MWKdivideGamp3˩ɩKˠŚ0H50E0 ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MWKdivideGʁǴɶȔ433ņˠȕ0ȳͶoumlɯƯ0J( Horns

Rev II209 MW2009ƀ 9DZŐͿRoslashdsand II207 MW2010ƀʈʓŶcurrenŚͿAnholt400 MW2012ƀ12DZʓŶcurrenŚͿ1DFƭHG˟gt-G

Ugrave 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

1761 2358 2464 2697 2708 2716 2720 2728 2717 2756 2985 2621

ȳ 11 50 50 210 423 423 423 423 423 423 856 1339

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 2-2 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

176 1 597 106 183 12 8 4 8 ndash11 39 ndash38 ndash135

ȳ 11 39 0 210 223 0 0 0 0 0 100 ndash14

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

212 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1iacuteŚHampaumlɣė˃SrYȰ1DFͶoumlɯaRZn3ǝamp0ĽiacuteƄŨTHORNHampǝamp03ͶoumlɯaRZnD7UoN13ȳaRZnĎȲ8-4HAszligːǨ

22000Ǩ1igraveG=-bjnźľEgraveȉ1divide 025mZZrkW0034kW ĎȲ9 0047okWͿ3ugraveƭNjAEligHGĎȲ10szligːǨ˫3Ǩ1igraveampƔ4źľEgraveȉKĖĕG10

G Ͷ1ť4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥƀǘ3Ǵ ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3˚ugraveƀ 0023mZ

ZrkW00037kW 0005okWͿ˚ugraveHG

ĎȲ8 UoNaRZn134ȳͶoumlɯƯ3THORNǸư4ecirc1ƈˬHGȳͶoumlɯƯ3aRZn

ŚʻHG13ȳͶoumlɯƯUoNɧ˻db1DFƈˬHG ĎȲ9 17353mZZr ĎȲ10 ɠ˖3Egraveȉ˚ugraveiacuteƄ4ͶoumlɯaRZn93ugraveƭK 1 kWampF 010mZZr0013Ϳamp

[1degJ)ŨTHORNHampA3-G

18

ˊɱ1mZ-4ͶszligːǨ- 22000Ǩ3ɯK˖147ƀE 10ƀGAring5 3 MWͶKˬʹGH5FIT4ș3D1ȪŚHGĎȲ11

3 MWͶszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 3000 kWh

3000 kWh times 22000 = 66 GWh FITʬ˺Ǚ˚ugrave43 MWͶ 66 GWhɯG=-3ǴǓƱJHG3Oacute4ș3D10G

(66 GWh times 025Zr) + (66 GWh times 0023Zr) = 18064200Zr

Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4ʽǹĀampͶKǑĐGǝˠ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1A

ɥHG3ͳ4ǑĐHampˬOtildeş3 2ETHKɣɤGamp3szligːǨ 12000Ǩ1ť 008mZZrkW001kW 00139okWͿ-GAring5 225 kW3ͶKTHORNǝˠ3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn1D)ǑĐGľĜˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugraveK˩ʙGsup23D10G

225 kW times 2ļszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 450 kWh

450 kWh times 12000 = 54 GW

ǑĐamp 225 kWͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4

54 GWh times 008Zr = 432000Zr 3˚ugraveɥHG34450 kWǵɄ3ͶKǑĐGľĜ1EHG3˚ugrave3ơƣKĖGamp

3ǝˠaRZn-ǑĐGͶ3ǘ1iacuteˬEHGJ-403˚ugraveɥHG34

450 kWǵɄ3ͶK˩ 175 MWKǑĐGľĜ1EHG szligːǨ1ļ+ FIT-4Ś3 kWh3ɯǨ-40ˊ1tzgɷƑņͶD

FAņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶ93ƷUacuteHGAring5 3 MW 3ɯȗ3szligːǨampFɯouml (kWh) 415 MWͶ3 2ETH-ƕ)ĖĕG˚ugrave3ͳAETH10G ș1ʆUgrave 2-3D7 2-44FITͶoumlaRZn1GͶ3Ƹ1ĒltƐKʆampA3-3

Aring4ś3aRZn1ļ+G

Ugrave 2-3 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITuh AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave[]psup312

ɯȗ3

ˠȕ

MWͿ

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ ouml

MWhͿ

Ͷ 1ļampF3aRZn]bn

(DKK)

oumlłͳ (DKK)

ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 223 098 30 90 90 7497 23430 5250 224 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 223 098 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 227 100

(Nielsen et al 2010)

ĎȲ11 3Aring4reg3Ĵ3ʒ14Ġ=H0ampmZZr-ĽġG ĎȲ12 ĝ

19

Ugrave 2-4 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITu AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave]

ɯȗ

^Pc(MW)

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ

ouml (MWh)

Ͷ 1ļampF3aR

Zn]bn

(DKK)

ouml łͳ(DKK)

˚ugrave

(DKK) ʱĔTHORN

(DKK) ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 1650 6610 298 100 30 90 90 7497 2343 5250 1650 6900 295 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 1650 8920 273 092 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 990 5220 281 094

(Nielsen et al 2010)

˫3AringEņĺ3gg1ƷGDFAņĺ3ɯȗ1ƷGǞszligːǨ1ļ+

FIT 3ơƣKĖBJGUgrave 2-3 1ʆHGD1ǰAʪȽucircɞ3ˍͶ4ņĺgKOtildeamp 18 MW3ȣɱũĺ3Ͷ-GH4szlig3Ͷ-Ś3ɯouml kWhKļ1ampľĜ3 FIT1AƎ4=GUgrave 2-4 EszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT E3divideɱĔTHORNƖEHB34gɷƑũtzfrac12 3 MW3ɯȗ-Fȣɱũĺ3ɯȗ4 3frac141ˑ(GJG

FIT3ļɆszligːǨKɥGjn4currenˠŚHampˬOtildeşKƭGamp1ˬʹHGͶ3ǘŪ00G-G=ampH1DFgɷƑtz3OacuteKGjnAŪ00G

HE 2 3ʹ˩ɩKʘŚaRZnKĸUcirc-ĖTHORNHAE1ĪͲ0GľĜGszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT 4mZ3ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ʁǴɱɶȔOacute)ampˬOtildeş1ļ+ǕʘɱɶȔOacuteƭHGD1Gamp3A3-G szligːǨK FIT 3ļɆG3mjn4˚ugrave1DFźľ3ȝgtɣ GampǰAʪȽɱucircɞ

3ˍͶƛAaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ1)ǰAͺoumlɱ0gw-400G-G

$3ampǰʨɱ14Ͷoumlɯreg3ɅDFA10F20mZ-43ƏƉ3 FIT AumlJHGampɯoumlKļɆampɶȔOacuteƭ1G]bn0Gʫȁ0G

22 NDQ+ 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-4mZ1G 2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKG-ɥampmg42008 ƀ1˩ɩG4śǟHampaRZn3ſĹOacute1ļ+A3-GͶ93Ʒ]bn4^Pn3Ǽacute1DFŚ-40mZ-4ɯ]bnȣɱŚGD-GˬOtildeş MWampF3Ʒ]bn14ǰņ- 503GeacuteƀƄ3ɯouml MWh ampFƷ]bn3Ńuumlɞ4 15ǵɄ-G

221 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para mZ3ͶoumlɯaRZ-n4ˊ1Ū0Ͷǘ3Έ12ļͿ3ͶʺKɥG˩ɩW

PoP-4Ū0A 3ļ3ͶKɷʳɛG4ʵB0ŔKNJD1=ʹGGH4ͶK 1 ļccedilǗɱ1ʹGˡˢɱĉƋ0GE-GmZ14ņˠȕQOoyM3AringGbPBʟĴņ0A3-40ǰņˠȕ3b4Ͷ 20ļKˬʹGʱş 63 MWͿ

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹŚȉş4 19 MW-F$3gɷƑ4 80 mtz4 72 m-G2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ-ǰAˊɱ034 23 MW3Ͷ-F$3tz4 80 mgɷƑ4 93 m-G

(b) BL0+Ouml mZ3Ͷğ4ˊ1˝ğ-GampͶ3^PnɡƦɱ034āȷȮų10G

20

ˊɱ1ͶɅ4ǾŪ00)GȮųĸŻ$3Ģ-4ƀſĹͶ 7 msKGH4 2 MWͶtz 80 mͿ1ļ1ťszligːǨʢ 2500Ǩ1ɸƎG(Danish Energy Agency 2010)2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3 2009ƀƄ3szligːǨ4ſĹ 2639Ǩ-)amp2009ƀ3mZ3ͶɅ4żƀ3 88-2008 ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3szligːǨ4szligˀɥƀǘſĹ-ʢ 3000 Ǩ10GcurrenƦHGɫƧszligːǨ3LJŚOacute4mZszligiquest3ͶɅl`1GA3-402008ƀ1ˬʹH2009ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+˩ʙampA3-G

(c) ccedil-1 2008ƀƄ3deg˘ɱ0aRZnƷ]bn141100kW1529okWͿE 1300kW1807

okWͿ=-F$3ſĹ4 1250 kW1738 okWͿ-GEgraveȉ4 2008 ƀ1xZ1ampƔ2009ƀ 2010ƀ1ņŽ1frac12GɚƙG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ1GͶ3ʰƾ4IgraveIcircɡ^wbŋʢĸdegĵĸʚɡ3 4 ɶ-ȒƭH

GHE3ɶ$HHͶoumlɯƯ3ɣȹʰƾ3ʢ 25KĈG2008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlɯaRZn1currenƦHGɣȹʰƾ412MWh17oMWhͿ-G (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m4ƀ|b3Ouml 80-K˺GaRZnKɥGmZ1GȤ

ƯDz3Ͷ4ˊ1ƎƅOgraveŋʢ1DFK˺Gegrave3ĔTHORNKƎƅOgraveŋʢ1Ʒ FͶ

3ƯDzʿ43ļKɷDžeumlɥG-0Ʒ1ťGeumlɊ93ǓaeligǓƱ4szligOumlȖʿ3Ƴ˴

ʻyacutemacrEHG mZ3ɡƦɱ0aRZn4100Ouml-K˺GaRZn-Gż3aRZ

n-4Ouml1DG˺3otildeĜʢ 800)GͶoumlɯaRZn1ťGOgraveTHORNĮĔǴĖTHORNHė˃034 15ƀsup2atilde-G

2008 ƀƄ3ƎƅOgraveŋʢ3eumlő4ʢ 5ͼ-H4 5 ƀijŚHGͶoumlɯaRZn4reg3ƷȗɱbrvbarȐȣȵuumlƟ˟0HGampˊ1eumlőfrac120)GͶoumlɯaRZ

n3bZ˞įKʚɡ-Gegrave0ưȠGEͶ93Ʒ4bZfrac12˟0HG mZ1GǝˠaRZn3ľĜʣɤɞ4ż 9Έ11-G3amp 5~73bZ

Nė˃10G3EA1983ƀE 2002ƀ=-3mZ˯icircȇƉĕƊƯ3 OMX203bZNſĹ 72)amp3ȣͶoumlɯaRZn3bZȣɱfrac12JGĎȲ13 (Saabye 2003)

(f) s_N3N9A Ͷ30ĔTHORNɅ4NordPool źľK 3oumlłFIT Ə-3Egraveȉ˚ugrave-Gʬ˺

ǙbrvbarȐʿ3Ͷ3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢK 5ƀ=-ƇG-GĎȲ14HE3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢ4 Nord Pool3Yacuteəźľ1Ɇ ʴʫHG

(g) Q54Q1 mg4 Economy of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ1

ļ+A3-G

222 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para 2008 ƀ1mZ-ŐampȳaRZn40HA˩ɩG4ƈˬȠ1GȳQ

OoyMɯ4ˊ1Ǖƃ3˴ėKƖEHG10G3˴ė4THORNǸʋKEHG

A3-szligːǨ 50000Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml kWhampF3THORNǸ1ťǰfrac12Egraveȉ3A31˴ė

ĎȲ13 Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark ĎȲ14 10ƀijŚEgraveȉKNjAEligGǝˠ3ɯAɰľG

21

aeligHG10GHornz Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand I amp II4THORNǸʋKʪśɠampaRZn-GAnholt3ǝȳQOoyM3THORNǸǴ4 2010ƀ 6DZ1ʨpoundG$3ˬOtildeş4 400 MW-2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-1KŐG10G UoN13ǞƉĎȲ15QOoyMA˴ėHGUoNǞƉQOoyM3ˬʹlaquo

ƖEHH5Ͷ1Aĝ PdlOz[ɥHG10Gɠķ=-1 2 3UoNǞƉ3QOoyMƈˬHG

(b) ccedil-1 mZ1GȳQOoyMɯbrvbarȐʿ3Ʒ]bn4˴ėiacute3THORNǸʋKʪampʢ 200 MW3

ņˠȕQOoyM1ťʢ 2700Έ3000kW3753Έ4170okWͿ-G ȳQOoyMKĴatilde3oumlʡʭȳŃĶˬOtilde1ʡGamp3]bn4mZ-4Ĵƺ

GampaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷʱͳŪ00)GɢĿƐ˰Egravebrvbarntilde3ȷƂĸ˰Egrave3]

bnAĴƺG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳQOoyM3ʰƾ4ʭ˩mgEHF=ampȳQOoyMɥʪǬʳ

ƞthornKƭGamp1ʄśƟmZ3ņˠȕȳQOoyM3ɣȹʰƾ4ĸ

Ļ3ɛȯ1DF 18MWh25oMWhͿE 20MWh28oMWhͿ=-G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mZ3ņˠȕQOoyM3˺4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ȪʙǴszligiquest1ɀ)˖JH

GsmOjZƷ˖E3OgraveTHORN˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM1eumlɥHGraquoH4

aRZn93˺Ə-˖JHGJ-40Ϳ˴ ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4ż 50ƍ3Ƿȣɞ-˺HG mZ3oumlmiddotʇ3Ƿ]bn4ʢ 112ͼ Ouml]bn4 4555˩ʙHG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) s_N3N9A ˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml3ijŚEgraveȉKĖĕ)

GijŚEgraveȉ4THORNǸdb-ȪŚHGTHORNǸEgraveȉ4˺ǙHampƿȔ-40szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ĔTHORN Nord PooloumlĕƊ-3ł-ƖEHampƔ1ȪŚHGHorns Rev II3ˑǸEgraveȉ4 0069kWh0096okWhͿRoslashdsand II4 0085kWh0118o kWhͿ-GźľEgraveȉ1ťGEgraveȉ˚ugrave4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿTHORNǸEgraveȉ1Ɯ NjAEligGźľEgraveȉTHORNǸEgraveȉDFľĜQOoyM

Eʡʭɥʿ1ŸͳKǓƱJ250E0 ˴ėiacute-0G4UoN13ǞƉ3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 22000 Ǩ1G

=- 0034kWh0047okWhͿD7Ͷeumlɥ-Greg3˚ugraveKĖĕG

(f) Q54Q1 Horns Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand II3ƈˬ]bnʱͳ1Gmg4eumlɥė˃0agraveɱƥĽmZ3ȳ

QOoyMɯ3ŦŞD7ȳQOoyMƯDzʿ0E71ȳQOoyM3˺

ʿ93ˁĕF˺ȆE1THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙEƖampA3-G

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacute3ȑ˞-G

ĎȲ15 UoN13aRZn4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3THORNǸʋKʪ1˖JHGȳƈˬaRZnŚ

ʻHG3 23QOoyM1divide13ȳɯƯUoNɧ˻db1D)ƈˬHG

22

Ugrave 2-5 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ16

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ17 ȳ

2008ƀĎȲ18 ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 23 23 23 Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 3 91 90 ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2700 4300 3865

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 25 25 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1250 2844 3000

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash (1738) (3953) (4170) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 12 (17) 20 (28) 18 (25) $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 3 (4) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆ Economics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010

Ugrave 2-6 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 50 55 45 Ƿeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 110 112 112 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 80 45 26 Ƿ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 20 66 74

WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 52 88 95 Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 13 10 13 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 25 25 25

FXn $US 139 139 139 FXn DKK ndashndashndash 7353 ndashndashndash 7353

ǛΆEconomics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aeligIacuteɥļ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ

Ugrave 2-7 NDQ+uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 447 (621) 28 (39) 447 (621) źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 37 (51) 70 (97) 85 (118) FITǕʘǴ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 22000 50000 50000 ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

LVRT ˮȲ 6ĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ǛΆNielsen et al 2010 Danish Energy Agency 2008 Danish Energy Agency 2009 ĎȲ16 2007ƀ14mZ-ǝamp1ƈˬHampͶ40)amp ĎȲ17 2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ȳ1Ͷ4ƈˬH0)ampȳQOoyM 3ƈˬG4˩ɩȠ1)amp

$3( 24Ǖƃ3˴ė˩ɩ1ļ+A3-ȟF64UoN13aRZn-)ampHorns Rev II3ǰʨɱ0Ʒ3ȪŚ4 2007ƀ10Hampamp3ǘŒ4 Horns Rev II3LJŚ]bn1ļ+GRoslashdsand II3ƷȪŚ4 2008ƀ10H$Hĝƀ3]bn3Ȉƻ0)G

ĎȲ18 -ɥampAring42008ƀ1ƈˬŋʢʴʫHamp Roslashdsand II3THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙG ˮȲ 6 LVRT (Low Voltage Ride Through) Ķɾfrac12Ǩ1AͶ0ͶoumlɯƯ3KʮʯʡʭŘŚƄKʰƾGȗ˃

23

223 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc 2008ƀ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ93ƷmgKɥ LCOEK˩ʙAring 1Auml1ʆampđɔb3

LCOEȣampđɔb4Wind Task263szligđdivideĴ3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn-G đɔb3 6 Ńǘ3ƐKmZ3brvbarAringȣěŃǘmZ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOE 1Ɛ

GKǥE1ampđɔbmZ3brvbarAringKȣampʫȁKx 2-2 1ʆmZ3ſĹɱaRZn3 LCOE42008ƀ14 61MWh85oMWhͿ-H4đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿDFA 7MWh10oMWhͿfrac12)amp

x 2-2 NDQ+rmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup319

(b) BL0+dj đɔb3aRZn3aeligouml4szligːǨ 2600ǨKBBĮ)ampǞ 2008ƀ1Őamp

mZ3aRZn3 2009ƀ3ſĹɯouml4szligːǨ 2700ǨKBBĮ)ampH4 2009ƀ3ͶȯƤͶoumlɯ3ɯoumlAringƀ3 88ͼ10)ampamp-G3ɏKʾƬG2008ƀƄ3ſĹɱaRZn3ƀszligːǨ4ʢ 3000Ǩ-H1DFaRZn3ʪȽƟ=FLCOEʢ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿfrac12amp10GmZ3brvbarAring3szligːǨđɔbȣǤH5GLCOE4ʢ 1MWh1oMWhͿfrac12G

(c) Ntildeccedil-1 2008ƀ1GmZ3Ʒ]bn4đɔbDFAʢ 200kW278okWͿfrac12m

Z3aRZn]bn 15frac120)amp34mZ3ʡʭʡ]bnKƺG3ʡʭɥʿ-Gamp-G ʡʭɥʿ4ĖɏE3ʡ]bnKǓƱ3]bn14ŃƯBŃĶĬ3]bnĠ=HG3

aRZn3ƯDzʿ4ͶEĖɏ=-3]bnKǓƱA3SNʹ˩ɩˠiuml1GͶS

N˟0HGľĜ$3SN3ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿĖɏ=-ʡ-GD1ʡʭKƼƌ0H50E0

3]bn4ʡʭɥʿƺG3ˠiacute1DFaRZn]bnszligiquestKņŽ1ȿE-

GHKx 2-31ʆ đɔbDFAƷ]bnfrac120)G˞į4reg1ƈˬ^Pn3ĸɡɱǼacuteegrave0ĸ

Ucirc1ƍouml0Ͷ˛ɤȐD7ʪŢ0aRZnɯœķGʹ˩ɩɢĿƐ˰Egrave1

GͶ3Ȱˠiacuteăccedil1ǙOtildeHGǀEHG

ĎȲ19 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4ĭǂcopyTHORN3ampđɔběĴ LCOE3Ÿ3

Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

24

x 2-3 NDQ+eumlEuml-1-1iumleGK

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mZ3˺]bn4đɔbDFAͳ-GmZ3aRZn-ƛ˞H

GǷeumlɲɞ4 110ͼđɔb-4 100Ϳ-ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ouml3ſĹeumlɞ4đɔbȣGOuml1DG˺3otildeĜĝʋƄ-G mZ-4Ͷ3ȵuumlƟͶoumlɯaRZn3ucircɞɱ0bZranĩĦźľ-eumlɥ

-GampͶ3˺1GbZ3|frac12˟0HGmZ3aR

Zn3Oumleumlő1˘HGmZ-4Ƿ]bn0)G34oumlźľ1GEgraveȉbZ

1ǩHGʄɞamp-GH4 FIT 1D)ȽKIgrave˯GDFźľEgraveȉK˚)Gamp-FFITKŨTHORNGreg3Ĵ-AltAringń0ĝ ɛȯ10)GmZ14yacute]bnKGė˃Ɵ3Gfynʗ1eumlɥ-GǓǎbX4œķ0 ˺]bn1D)mZ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFAʢ 3 MWh4 oMWhͿ0)

G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ3ʰƾ4Ńuuml133gt˘ʆHG2009ƀD7 2010ƀ3yumlƽɱʃʐ (Nelson

et al 2010) 1DH52008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶ3ʰƾ4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥǴszligiquest- 12MWh17oMWhͿ10Gʰƾ1D)mZ3aRZn3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 1MWh1oMWhͿfrac120)G

(f) 13T-1 mZ1Greg3]bn14ʬ˺Ǚ]bnGmZ14 3 oMWh4 oMWhͿ3

ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3ugraveƭiacuteƄF3ͳ4ś3Ͷ3ʬ˺Ǚ]bn1ʗƦŚHGreg3]bn

4đɔbȣ LCOE1LƐ0

(g) uumljfrac14divideWampgtKQCcedil mZ3ľĜͶoumlɯsup2ń3SrYǕʘ4ȰlaquoʌD7˹ʌƯƖ3eumlőǓƱ3ȿͳ1GǕ

ʘ-GmZ4đɔbDFAȰlaquoʌɞfrac12ƕ)˹ʌƯƖEǓƱeumlőKņŽ1ȿͳG

-G=ampͶoumlɯaRZn3OumlǷȣɞ0)GampmZ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFA 1MWh1oMWhͿfrac12 ˩ʙ-4ȿEgraveUgraveČ1GmZ3ˠiumlKēǧ0mZ-4ͶKĠŶȐˬOtilde3EgraveOacute

$3ȟAacuteEgraveOacute3ǰņ 25=-ƀ1ȿEgraveUgraveČHH1DFͶoumlɯsup2ń3SrYǕʘ3]bn4ʳƏɱ1frac12G3frac12ɞ4˩ʙ0

224 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj˩ʙ1DFmZ3ĔTHORNŃǘKͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘȣ

GyacuteYj4=ĔTHORNAͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOzAʾƬ1˩ʙampș1ĔTHORNŃǘ3gt

KĠyacuteYjKauml˩ʙǰƔ1ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘKĠampOacuteKauml7˩ʙamp

3Ɉŀʋ1DFǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘ1ťGĔTHORN3ɸťɱEgraveOacuteKǥE1amp x 2-4 4ĔTHORNŃǘKǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘȣampA3-G=ampHEaacute1mZ3

LCOE K3D1ȒƭGKʆG61 MWh85 oMWhͿ3(ʢ 43 MWh

25

60oMWhͿKĔTHORNɅoumlłͿ-24MWh33oMWhͿKaRZn3ˀɥǴ3FIT˚ugraveƏ-3PdlOz-ȣɞ-˧5mZ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 2KĔTHORN3Ȓƭ˞ʥ-ȟF3 3ccedil3 1K FIT-10G

x 2-4 2008NDQ+s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilthornN3N9Apsup320

mZ3mccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ampFʢ ndash6MWh ndash8oMWhͿ-GH4ſĹmZ3ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿƷŞͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯƷ3yacute˞acuteKɄamp31

ăccedil0Xj`yKoumlĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘ3PdlOzEƖGKʆĨG

23 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+

2008 ƀ1Ͷ3ĽUgraveiacuteƄǝamp1ŨTHORNHsup2ǽͶ93Ʒ0E71$3ŨTHORN93ƚaumlɗGͶoumlɯƚKGǞ-ǕƃoumlKTHORNHG34ȳQOoyM3ŨTHORN-G2008ƀ142012ƀǶ=-1ȳ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşK 800 MW1GʁǴɶȔˬŚHamp|b3ɶȔOacute4ǝˠ3Ͷouml3ˬOtildeş 175 MWǠœ3ͶoumlɯƯKˬOtildeǭǝG1D)ƖEHGˬOtildeş 175 MWHG mZ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bn4Ʒ]bnŚͳ-Gamp1đɔbDFAfrac120)G

yacute]bnʰƾ3frac12A$H1ŠGͶoumlɯ3]bn4Ͷ3Egraveȉ3frac123amp

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26

Ugrave 2-8 2007 2008NDQ+uumljfrac14divide LCOEpsup321

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave

(LCOE) euroMWh

($MWh) ndashndashndash 61 (85)

70 (97)

81 (113)

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) 67

(93) 79

(110)

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj (FG)

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(3)

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rOtildemiddot

Danish Wind Industry Association httpwindpowerorgenknowledgestatisticsthe_danish_markethtml September 2010 (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)

Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2007 2008 (Danish Energy Agency 2008) Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2008 2009 (Danish Energy Agency 2009)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Ministry of Climate and Energy National handlingsplan for vedvarende energi i Danmark 2010 (In English National Action

ĎȲ21 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampĔɲʱͳͶoumlɯǕʘͽPdlO

zD7yacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜAG

27

Plan for RE in Denmark) (Kemin 2010)

Nielsen et al Economy of Wind Turbines 2010 EUDP (Nielsen et al 2010) (Original title Vindmoslashllers Oslashkonomi)

Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark (Saabye 2003)

28

Aring 3Auml lt8

31 lt8uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

311 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

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2009ƀȳQOoyM3ʖ 1Ě0)amp Alpha VentusʓŶampH1DFȳ3ɯŧǽŐ=GA3ǴƒHGoPkǕƃ4 2015ƀǶ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʢ 25 GW1GɶȔKɯ˘G

x 3Ă1 lt8uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

2000 ƀoPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4Ĵatildeʱɯouml3 16KĈsup2ǽ3otildeĜ4ņŽ1Ǥ8ƀƔ14 620)GcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3ŀdivideoPkǕƃ1DGɺSrY3ĕFʩgtKʾƬG3otildeĜ4notƔAǤKʯGcurrenƦHGUgrave 3-1 4oPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ĐD7ŧǽ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 3-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀşdivideKʆampA3-G

29

Ugrave 3-1 lt8IacuteAtildeTHORNOacuteeth (GW)

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2012currenƦ

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44 61 88 120 146 166 184 206 222 239 306 358

ȳ 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 100

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Ugrave 3-2 lt8oacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

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44 17 27 32 26 20 18 22 17 17 14 03

ȳ 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 04 17

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

312 s_CcedilN3N9A

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ampSrY4ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFłHG FIT 4 2 3Ƞfrac12ͳ3ļǷǛǞƉͳ3ĽŌǞƉͿ-ȒƭHGotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ɥǴ

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ɯoumlđɔ^Pn3ɯouml3 150KĮGD13Ǵ4 060ͼ1ʮʯHG ȳͶoumlɯ3ļǷĕEgraveȉ4 62MWh86oMWhͿotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 91MWh127oMWhͿ

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(c) EEG2009 2009 ƀ3 EEG -4Ͷoumlɯ3ļǷĕǛ 502 MWh698 oMWhͿotildeŀĕEgraveȉ 92

ĎȲ22 oPk3đɔ^Pn4ǷĽġǮ-ɥampđɔb133-401ȲƧ

30

MWh128oMWhͿ1ǔ˨Hamp(E3ĕͳAQOoyM3ƈˬƀEƀɞ 1-frac12ƕ) 2009 ƀ3ƈˬaRZnĖĕGotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 92 MWh128 oMWhͿ10G2010ƀ3ƈˬaRZn-4 91MWh126oMWhͿ10GǠœ^PnˬOtildeǭǝaRZn-H5E1 5MWh5oMWhͿ3otildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideʙHGͶoumlʡʭ3^nAring5Ģȱǘ˺ǙͿ-GľĜ42014ƀ=-1ˬʹHGǝˠaRZnĝ 5MWh7oMWhͿ3ĽotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ť0GͶ 2010ƀ=-1ǰĀHampľĜǠœ3aRZn1ťG3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 7MWh10oMWhͿ1ŀdivideG ȳQOoyM14 35 MWh49 oMWhͿ3ļǷĕEgraveȉɥHGȳQOoyM

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32 lt8VUgravefrac12oumlRPacuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+

321 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

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ōͶȯ3^Pn1ʑĸGaRZn-G3^Pn3szligːǨ4 2260ǨʋƄ10GcurrenƦHG

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aeligouml-)amp2007ƀ 2008ƀ1oPk-QOoyMƈˬ1ampĸĻ4ȣɱŪ0$3ampͶ3ǘŪ0ũˠȕ3QOoyMŅǘƈˬHG10)amp2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ˬ ʹHampǰ

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SNȣͶȯoslash)GampoPk3đɔSN3 903Ͷȯ3ľƯKaRZn^Pn1L-G

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4ŚȉaeligoumlͶ3gɷƑtz0E71Ͷ3ˊɱ0ˬ˩]dnŚȉaeligouml

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31

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ĔTHORN4SrY3 FITD7GǛEƖEHG2007ƀ1ƈˬHampaRZn3ĽŌ4 819

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(f) Q54Q1 mg4 EEG (2004) DEWI Magazine Nos 32 (2008) and 34 (2009) D7 Deutsche WindGuard GmbH ZSW3

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ɱĽġǮ1ļ+

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32

Ugrave 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

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ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA 20 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1259 (1750) 1373 (1908) NA 3230 (4490)

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2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

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ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 95 95 NA 120 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 70 70 NA 70

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 30 30 NA 30 WACC ͼ 56 56 NA 68

Ǵ ƀ 13 13 NA 15 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 298 298 NA 298

FXn $US 139 139 NA 139

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard Destatis

Ugrave 3-5 lt8uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

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ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ

ƀ NA

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LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

323 lt8oumlRBL0+yuml2008ĀrmicroQ1-1plusmnecirc

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33

x 3-2 lt8uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup323

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31įG

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Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

34

x 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup324

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x 3-31ʆampD15MWh7oMWhͿ3yacuteYjɣ FH4szligːǨʰƾ3Ÿɮ1DGA3-G

33

-LoPk3QOoyM3Aring4Śȉaeligouml 2MW3Ͷ 5ļ-ȒƭHGaRZn3szligːǨ42260ǨƦŚG3m3ƦŚ1ļ+LCOE485MWh118oMWhͿLJŚHampNjAEligHamp FIT1DFaRZnɯǨȐʿ3yacuteYjampFʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ10GǛ3Oacute4 EEG-ˠŚHG

Ugrave 3-6 lt8Iumlsectpsup325

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

85 (118) NA 135

(188) ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

79 (110) NA 84

(117)

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

5 (7) NA 46

(64)

rOtildemiddot

BMU Leitszenarion 2009 ndash Bundesministerium fuumlr Umwelt Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit Langfristszenarien und Strategien fuumlr den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland ndash Leitszenario 2009 (2009)

Destatis Statistisches Bundesamt wwwdestatisde (last access December 2009) ĎȲ24 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAG ĎȲ25 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

35

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 32 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122007 (2008)

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 34 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122008 (2009)

Deutsche WindGuard Deutsche WindGuard GmbH on behalf o Zentrum fuumlr Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Wuumlrttemberg (ZSW) Vorbereitung und Begleitung bei der Erstellung eines Erfahrungsberichtes gemaumlszlig sect 20 EEG (2008)

EEG 2004 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich (2004)

EEG 2009 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich und zur Aumlnderung damit zusammenhaumlngender Vorschriften (2008)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

36

Aring 4Auml JN6

41 JN6uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

411 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬʹş42000ƀ3 447 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 2121 MW1ŀdivide3( 228 MWȳͶoumlɯ3ş0)GͶoumlɯ1DGƀ3ɯouml42000ƀ3 08 TWhE 2008ƀ3 43 TWh1ŀdivideGǞ2008ƀ3Uh3ʱȸouml4 119 TWh-)ampͶoumlɯ3ʁǴɶȔ42008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 2000 MWdivideG-G3ɶȔ3ƭ1DFˬʹȽgtG4ƈˬ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʱş4ʢ 4000 MW10G2009ƀ14950 MW3ȳͶoumlɯ3THORNǸŐHGȳͶoumlɯ3ɶȔOacute42020 ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 6000 MW 1G-Graquo EU 3aumlɣė˃SrYƿplusmn3ʻyacuteKɄGamp34 2020ƀ=-3ɶȔOacute45178 MW-G x 4-1 D7Ugrave 4-1 4-2 4D7ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71ěƀƄ3

ʁǴɱD7ǴɱɶȔOacute3currenɂ-Gszlig3şmg4ěƀǶ3mg-Gɏ1ɫƧ-GU

h4ǠœͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ14ɶȔOacuteKŚ0

x 4-1 JN6uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 and Rijksoverheid 2010

2000ƀ3ƀŨTHORNş4ĝƀǶ3ʦʏˬOtildeşĝ ş1ˬŚHampUgrave 4-21ʆȜģƀŨTHORNş4

ǑĐampͶoumlɯaRZn3ȜģˬOtildeşKĠL-GUgrave 4-2 1ʆamp2009 ƀE 2012 ƀ=- 2012ƀE 2020ƀ=-3ěǴ3ȜģƀŨTHORNş4ě3Ǵ3ſĹƀŨTHORNşKʆGsup23˘1ʆˬOtildeş4UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ1ļ+ˬOtildeş3currenɂ-GRijksoverheid 2010Ϳ

37

Ugrave 4-1 JN6IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0447 0485 0672 0905 1075 1224 1453 1641 1921 2727 6000

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0108 0228 0228 5178

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 andRijksoverheid 2010

Ugrave 4-2 JN6regwoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0038 0038 0187 0233 0170 0149 0229 0188 0280 0202 0409

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0 0 0 0619

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010Rijksoverheid 2010

412 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1ǝamp0 FIT ĽŌ˩ɩ-G SDE ˮȲ 7ŨTHORNHamp3 SDE bX3-Ͷoumlɯ3ś3ɯ]bn1˟ĜotildeŀĕEgraveȉoumlčEgraveȉ1divideǓƱJHGE1aumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗93Ʒ

1fynʌiacuteUacuteLjʹKɥGjnSDEotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3Ȃʩgtatilde-ȏ˪HG

42 JN6VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-Uh3deg˘ɱ0D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZnK˷ǥG

421 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh4 2003ƀ1szligːǨ|b-ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎG FITiacuteƄKŨTHORNamp2006ƀ=-4

szligːǨ 18000 Ǩ=-3aRZn1ťǰ- 10 ƀ FIT NjAEligHamp2008 ƀE3 FIT 1DGǓǎ4szligːǨ 2200 Ǩsup23aRZn1ť˖JHG10)ampſĹszligːǨ4ƀʢ2000Ǩ-$3ˊɱ0ʜı4ƀ 16002800Ǩ-G Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4FITǓǎ3˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZnKʆGĎȲ263

aRZn-4$3Pq`NlOz3ņĄǕɱ1ś˖ė˃0]bn3|KˬŚGdeg˘ɱ0

34 15 MW3ũˠȕQOoyM-ͶoumlɯaRZn3ņĄ 23 MW3ͶgɷƑ 90 mtz 60Έ80 mͿKAuml)G3ĸĻ-4iacuteˬEHFHE3ĸĻ-4tz 4060 m3 450800 kWͶˊɱ-G

(b) ccedil-1 aRZn3deg˘ɱ0Ʒ]bn4 1000kW1390okWͿE 1600kW2224okWͿ

=-Fˊ1Ʒ]bnszligːǨAŅ0)G

ˮȲ 7 SDE (stimulering duurzame energie) UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrYD7ɖAtildeʬ1GǓǎbX ĎȲ26 đɔaRZn134Ƿccedilǿ-ɥampđɔb13KƿA3-401ȲƧ

38

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3atildeˮ4ɯouml1D)ŃuumlGA3 9Έ12 kWh13Έ17 okWhͿż4ɥ

ŐE 5ƀ3^wbŋʢ1DGͿˬOtildeş1D)ŃuumlGA3 25kW35okWͿĸdegʡʭʡ]bnKĠͿ-GƔʿ3Oacute4aRZn1D)˒ɮ0Gś3ʰƾ4ƀ 23otildeĜ-ŀdivideGƦŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷKēǧampƀ|b3Ouml 80-˺GaR

ZnKɥG˚ugrave3NjAEligʿ-GͿǕƃ4ˇŹǷɞ 15D7Oumlɞ 6ͼKȜƦŚGoumlmiddotʇ4ub`n1ļ+˺K˖)GȰlaquoʌ4 255ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A 0ĔTHORNɅ4Yacuteəźľ-3Ǵŋʢ1DGoumlł-FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ1D)yacuteYj

K)Gyumlƽɱ0dividePdlOzfynSrYƷotildeƊ1D)NjAEligHG

3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4˹ʌė˃0ĔTHORNɅKƾamp0ɯbrvbarȐʿKĠ==0brvbarȐiquest1ɥHF1

43iacuteƄ1DFƯƖʌ 421ťeumlɲKƖGɯbrvbarȐʿAG

(f) Q54Q1 -ɥampmg4Uh3 FIT otildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3˩ʙ-ɥampđɔaRZn3agrave˘mg-

G (Lensink et al 2009 Cleijne et al 2010)

422 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh3ȳͶoumlaRZn-4ƈˬ˴ėKƖǰņ 50 m2ˠȕ3QOoyMKƈˬG-

Gƕ)deg˘ɱ0ȳaRZn3ˬOtildeş4 100Έ300 MW-Fʡʭ1NjAEligHGȜģɯouml4szligːǨ 3300Έ4000ǨɸƎ-G2008ƀ1 Prinses AmaliaQOoyMřƭamp1ʆmg14$3]bnȒ4ƛAĠ=H0

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4 2500Έ3500kW3475Έ4865okWͿ-G2008ƀ1řƭampaRZn4$

3ǘƀntilde1Famp˴ė3iacuteǼacute3ampȣɱũĺ3 V90ĺ 2 MWͶKɥG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ɥbrvbarȐʿ3ɥśʷ3Ū01DFʰƾ14ņ0ʄśƟœķGƀʰƾ4 90

kW125okWͿLJŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZn|b3˺ȒKɥF$3Ouml3otildeĜ4 50-GPrinces

AmaliaQOoyM3˺4aRZnȢ1˖)GWACC3ƦŚOacute4ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3Ƿ]bn3ordmOacute-H4 NuonShellƯDzG OWEZecirc3Ǡœ3ȳQOoyM1ɥEHampOacute-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A Ǡœ3QOoyM4Ǣ MEP˩ɩ1ļ+˚ugraveKĖF97MWh135oMWhͿ3ijŚ

FITĽŌKƖampfynPdlOz3˚ugraveɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 3mg4Ľɯ˘$3reg3agraveɱ1eumlɥ-GƥĽ1ļ+A3-ƥĽ1ŸɮGľĜ4ʆHamp

ƥĽ1ļ+m[-˚)G

39

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘1ěƀ1ƦŚampD7ȳͶoumlɯ3OacuteKʆ2007ƀ3aRZn]bn4 2008ƀǨ

ɏ3n1G-ʆGUgrave 4-5 3ouml3źľEgraveȉ14ĕƊ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnǴŋʢ3otildeƊɞĠ=HG

Ugrave 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 1 15 120 NA Ͷļǘ ļ 1 5 60 NA ɯ szligːǨ 2000 2200 3350 NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 15 NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1120 (1557) 1325 (1842) 3315 (4608) NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 40 (56) 24 (33) 92 (128) NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) NA NA NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

Ugrave 4-4 JN6uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 5 5 5 NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 15 15 12 NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 50 NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 50 NA WACC ͼ 60 60 79 NA

Ǵ ƀ 10 15 10 NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 255 255 255 NA

FXn $US 139 139 139 NA

Ugrave 4-5 JN6uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (81) 56 (78) 59 (82) NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 663 (922) 28 (39) 97 (135) NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ 37 20 44 NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

43 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ƛ˞0˴ėKƖG3ampogP0)

G

40

431 JN6uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 4-2 JN6rmicroQ1plusmnecircxpsup327

(b) BL0+dj Uh3Ͷ3ːɞ4ʢ 25-FszligːǨ 2200 ǨͿđɔb3 30DFAfrac12FIT 1DG

˚ugrave4szligːǨ 2200 ǨKGG4 SDE ˠiacute3˳ʧKʾƬ$HDFAfrac12ˬŚHGͿamp2200ǨDFAŅɯGamp3PdlOz4ŚHGE1˞0˞į4B4FͶȯ-G

432 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4Đ3ĪͲ1EcircGė˃ƟGszligːǨ 2200Ǩsup2KɯGPdl

Oz4ŚHGͶ3ˬ˩$HHBBɮ0)Fƕ)EgraveȉŘ0Gė˃Ɵ4ǃ-0

Aring5ĝ ɯȗKAuml)AgzoũľĜƷ]bnfrac12szligːǨŀdivideG

(b) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ0)Gį4ĸdeg3-Fƀʢ 10kW15okWͿ-G

(c) ccedilntildeacirciacute-113T-1 đɔbȣGUh3Ͷoumlɯ4Ȱlaquoʌȣɱfrac12 (255ͼ) eumlɏAGǑĐ]bn

4ʾƬ0

433 s_F(=2E

Uh3ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ43ʍ͵3PdlOziacuteƄ3ơƣKĖG-G$30A34 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ-2007 ƀ=-1HK˞ȨampaRZn1ťMEP ˮȲ 81DF 10 ƀijŚotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligH2008 ƀsup21HK˞ȨampaRZn3ľĜ4SDE 1DF 15 ƀŃuumlotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligHG3 FITiacuteƄ1divideaRZn3ľĜ4ǰņƷ]bn 600kW834okWͿ1ťƷ]bn3 443ʌdž3Ʒ˚ugrave (EIA) D7otildeƊɞ 13fynKeumlɥG

ĎȲ27 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ ˮȲ 8 MEP (Milieukwaliteit Elektriciteitsproductie) Uh3oumlɣɤ1GȰƓ

41

-G

x 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup328

434 aringmH7B

Uh3yacuteYj42007 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn1˧5Ugrave 4-6 đɔͿʢ ndash36 MWhndash50oMWhͿPpb3Oacute10)GH4Đ3MEP3 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3ˬ˩3Ș1DGA3-˚ugraveͳ3ļɵ0)ampoumlEgraveȉK 2Έ3 MWh3Έ4 oMWhͿfrac12ƦŚamp1DGoumlEgraveȉ 6~8 MWh 1ǤG1HŪ0AoumlEgraveȉ4ͶoumlaRZn4ż1ͺoumlɱ0A310)ampƔʮiacuteƄ-G SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ1ļ+ 2008 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn143ȘĕFHyacuteYj4 ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿBBPpb3Oacute10)GěʍaRZn3ɯ]bn3Ž4ndash3 DFA4G1ņɏ1ȲƧG3ampndash3MWh4oMWhͿPpb3Oacute4eKņĮGA3-40 ȳͶoumlɯ3b3yacuteY4Ɗʯ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-)ampH4ɷDžƖampyacuteƥ

Ľ1ļ+A3-40Princes AmaliaQOoyM3Ȫʙ1İɣ amp4ǥE-G

44

Uh4ŧǽ1A 2020ƀ1AD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Dzdz0ɶȔOacuteKŚGɠķ3 SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ4HKśɠGamp3ǰA˞0k-G43 Eacute3ccedilǿʫȁEUh3brvbarAring1GyacuteYj4ʹ˒-40JG ugraveKƖampɯouml4szligːǨ 2200Ǩ=-1iacuteHG3ǘOacute4Uh3Ͷȯ1ċampA3-G2200Ǩsup23ɯ1ťGPdlOz4ŚHFHAƷ]bnfrac123į-Gė˃ƟGʰƾ4ĸdeg3ampȣɱ

0)G

ĎȲ28 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

42

Ugrave 4-6 JN6Iumlsectpsup329

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

91 (126)

94 (131)

166 (231) NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

127 (177)

96 (133)

161 (224) NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash36 (-50)

ndash3 (-4)

5 (7) NA

rOtildemiddot

Cleijne JW SM Lensink and CJ Faasen (2010) SDE Wind op land met vollasturen en differentiatie [SDE wind onshore with full load hours and differentation] ECN-E--10-001 Petten January 2010

Lensink SM JW Cleijne M Mozaffarian AE Pfeiffer S L Luxembourg and GJ Stienstra (2009) Eindadvies basisbedragen 2010 [Final advice SDE premium base rates 2010] ECNKEMA ECN-E--09-058 Petten November 2009

Rijksoverheid (2010) Nationaal actieplan voor energie uit hernieuwbare bronnen Richtlijn 200928EG [National Renewable Energy Action Plan Directive 200928EG] Den Haag June 2010

Statistics Netherlands (2010) online databank httpstatlinecbsnl VoorburgHeerlen August 2010

ĎȲ29 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

43

Aring 5Auml 1CN

51 1CNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bP3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯŮ1G=ampɚŚ3 EU 3ɶȔ1ļ+ CO2ǃaeligethȿ3amp

1 2020 ƀ 2030 ƀ1ƦŚHGɶȔOacuteKʆE1ˠiacute3ȂʩgtK˷ǥGraquo$30Ȓƭ˞ʥK˟ɷordfȾoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3]bn3ƐKŪ0Gamp1ɠķ˖JHGͿ E1 2008ƀ1GbPźľ3deg˘ɱ0QOoyM3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) K˷ǥ$3sup3

ŚKregĴ1GͶoumlɯ3]bnȣG

511 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac12frac34laquo

2009ƀǶǨɏ-Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4 19149 MW1bP3oumlʡʭ1 3ɭɶ1ņ0Ʌ0)GbP3Ͷoumlɯɯ4 90ƀdegĄ51Ő=F2001ƀsup24ǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşƀſĹ-ʢ 1800MWdivideHampˠiacuteǔȜHamp 2004ƀ 2007ƀ14Ĵɟplusmn 4362004D7 6612006Ϳ3şņŽ1ŀdivideamp3ˠiacute3ǔȜ1DF$HKeumlɥampǝˠaRZn3ʑ(EumlHamp

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯouml42009ƀ3bP3SrYʱ˞3ʢ 14KĈG x 5-14ŅĴȣ3ťƀ-G 2008ƀ=-1bP1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3H=-3ʦʏˬOtildeş

ƀŨTHORNşKʆG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3mg4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3SrY˖uuml˩ɩNREAPͿ1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)2020ƀ3currenɂ4SrY˞3 20Kaumlɣė˃SrY- EU3ɶȔƭ1ğampǘOacute-G

x 5-1 1CNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

x 5-1 4bP-H=-1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşD7notƔˬʹHG˟=HGˬOtildeşKʆG=ampƀŨTHORNşKx 5-21ʆ2009ƀbPǕƃ4 2010ƀE 2012ƀ=-3ěƀ1ˬʹG MWşKiacuteGamp3otildeƎKŚG1amp=ampoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3ƐKȿ Gamp3˩ɩKnotƔ3Ȱplusmn1ʩgtL-ɯ˘ampszlig3aumlɣė˃SrY]aRr`3

Ĝ˩ş 6000 MW4ʱoumlĕƊ3 25KĈH4ʪȽĊȗ-4ɚ1]bn-GͿ

44

bP1GȳͶoumlɯ30Ł4ņȍ0-F3ampȮų3ȦȻ 50m 10)Gƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ-4ͳ0ļʅ˞0F$3ampHE3aRZn3ś˖ė˃Ɵ4iacute

HGE1aacuteʡɏ-4ȺĀŇɓWbļĸ1ˬʹHG]uPo^PZWbgw3

ɯ1DG~nrjZœķGampNZdbşEHampA310)G

Ugrave 5-1 1CNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

16 22 34 49 62 85 100 116 151 167 23 35

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 5-2 1CNoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

16 06 12 15 13 23 15 16 35 16 15 14

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

512 s_CcedilN3N9A

Ȱɱ1currenƦHGEacuteɲKĖGamp14ͶoumlɯaRZnKɚecirc3iacuteƄ131ccedil͵Gƛ˞G

ʟĴ3ȉ˴ŚiacuteƄĝȓͿH4ͶoumlɯaRZnʡʭ1UacuteYacuteDžʯ-GũłbrvbarȐʿAacuteocircouml

KĕE250E0Ϳamp=ampEgraveȉˠiacuteHGamp-GĴɟƿplusmn 6612007-˘ǥHampD1Ͷoumlɯ3ǓƱbX14ˠiacuteǛbXźľĎɡ3 2G

ˠiacuteǛbX4QOoyMƯDzʿƸampǴ1GͶoumlɯ3ʻyacuteɱ0ijŚĕƊ

Egraveȉ-Gx 5-23ǘOacuteͿ ǰʨɱ0Egraveȉ 1Ǩ3ɪEgraveȉoumlPdlOz1ļ+oumlčźľEgraveȉ3ʩgtĜJ-Ȫ=GI3źľĎɡ4ĽŌ13AĤ5HGƕ)ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿĖĕGǛ4

Egraveȉ1ŷęHG10F3Egraveȉż1frac12ľĜ4ǰfrac12Egraveȉsup2-H5ˬ

EHGx 5-34ˠiacuteǛ3đɔOacuteKʆG

x 5-2 Ucircgntilde1)QEAcirc ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

45

ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ4ntildeǡźľ3ɯ˩ɩKNjaeligcurrenɂKɥ3˩ɩś3ɯouml3currenɂ˶ŸKȿE

D1GE1==0ĸĻ1ƈˬHampQOoyMɸuml1˚Ugrave-˶ŸKŪ0Gamp

1==0aRZn[ĀHG3`bl1DFN``bl3ȴɥ

ʬ˺ǙKǰĀG-$3]bn34ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿǓƱ)G2008 ƀ4ʢ 15 MWh205oMWhͿ-)amp ˫3Oacute4Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120071D)ȸʿEgraveȉƿǘ (CPI) 1ļ+ǭǝH2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝ

ɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp x 5-34Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073ǟ˖sup2Ɣ3 FITǛiacuteƄ3ŃuumlKʆampA3-G2007ƀĴɟƿplusmn 6612007

1DF CPI1Ȯ) FITǔ˨HG10F2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp2010ƀ14ǭǝHampOacutePpb10FntildeƀKĮ)ampH4 CPIe1)ampamp-G bP3ʡʭɥʿ-G Red Electrica de Espantildea (REE) 1DH5ˬ Otildeş3 94ijŚEgraveȉĕU`

1D)ɥHGampčoumlźľEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ƐH0x 5-4Ϳ

x 5-3 ~BINcentIcircceyuml~[umlāntildeĀ ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

x 5-4 dividejo~uumljfrac14divideethyuml2008Ā ǛΆ Spanish TSO (REE)

Ͷoumlɯ3ņccedil4čźľ-ɷDžłHGampĽ4Egraveȉ1ņŷęHŇɓWbEgraveȉȦouml

ɯ3ɛȯ0E71Ĵźľ1G CO2 Egraveȉ3Egraveȉ1ƐG3amp 2008 ƀ14ſǡEgraveȉ4 6443MWh8956oMWhͿ0F2007ƀ3 3935MWh5470oMWhͿK 64Į)ampH4ɠķ=-1˫HampEgraveȉ-ǰAͳ-G Ͷoumlɯ3źľĕƊEgraveȉKx 5-31oumlčEgraveȉKx 5-51ʆYacute1ampD1Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073brvbar

Aring-43Egraveȉ4E=-3ʜıatilde1GſǡoumlčEgraveȉ1ļ+EgraveȉĽŌ3Ĝ˩Oacute-G

46

x 5-5 dividejBQK[umllcedilyuml2003Ą2009Ā ǛΆOMEL and Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

52 1CN 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-2008 ƀ1GbP3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKHKreg3đdivideĴ1GͶoumlɯɯ3ěʍmȣG

521 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

ɚecirciquestiacute13`blKeumlɥGamp14bP3QOoyM3ˠȕ 50 MWK40E0ˬ ʹampQOoyM3ſĹˠȕ4ʢ 25 MW-˩ ʙQOoyM3ˬOtildeşK 2007ƀA 2008ƀA 30MWsup3ŚG Ğɶ3ɥǨ4Śȉaeligouml-ƀ 1700ǨE 2350Ǩ=-==-G2008ƀ3szligĴſĹ4 2085

ǨͿ=ampaRZn3đɔOacute4 2007ƀ- 2200Ǩ2008ƀ- 2150Ǩ-)amp bP-ɥEHGszlig3ʪȽm-4aRZn3ɥǴ4 20ƀGraquoH4Q

OoyM3śʷ4E0Ϳ2007ƀ 2008ƀ14aRZn3Py^PZK 20ƀG

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹˠȕ4 1985 kW-2007ƀ3 1621 kWEJ1ŀdivideamp3m-ȏ˪G34 2000 kW3Ͷ0J(3QOoyM-4 2 MW3Ͷ 15ļͿ-G

x 5-6 2008THORNOacuteuumlegrave2bszlig ǛΆ Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

47

(b) ccedil-1 ƀ3Ʒʱͳ0)amp34Zb III D7 IV ˮȲ 93ņĺͶoumlɯ˙ʹˬʹHampE-

FƎeacuteEĶʡʭ93ʡBěʍʌcurrenɂHampJ-40 $H1AJEƀ4ĎǺǛ]bn3frac121DFͶ3]bnȿŪG=ampǕĊȗˠiacute3

Ńǭ1DFͶ3˞Afrac12ampQOoyM93Ʒʱͳ1ĈGͶ3]bn4ʢ 70Έ73ͼ-G3]bn4ĎǺǛ3Egraveȉɠķ3[jo]o1Ɇ ampƛ˞0ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵ1šDž1EcircG

2007ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn14Ʒ]bn4 1233kW1714okWͿ2008ƀ14 1250kW1738okWͿLJŚHG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾAaeligoumlƶiacuteȒatildeoumlȸ3amp3oumlǛˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵŀamp1DFŀdivide

Gʰƾ4 2007ƀ 1910MWh2655oMWhͿ2008ƀ 1963MWh2729oMWhͿLJŚHG100ͼŃuumlͿHE3]bn4|3ŃuumlƟdegǯĦ3eumlɥė˃Ɵƛ˞HGɕʶƴ˗ʿBȗȋ˙ʹ)amp˞į1G Ͷoumlɯȗ3^Pc4ƼņGͶȯ3ǰAD^Pn4-1eumlɥHGampŚȉǨ4ȿŪ

G10G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȞĘɱ1bP-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯKbPĴatilde3˖3oumlD7ŘŚampȰɱȂ

ʩgt1ļ+aRZn3yacuteiquestiacute1D)˺amp$H1AJEȵuumlƟKȘamp˺iacute

Ƅ3amp13 2ƀ-ɛȯŃĀAgraveE3ƺIgrave1DGIgrave˯ƛ˞10)G ˺]bn42007ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ1ˬŚHG2007ƀ2008

ƀAǷOuml3ȣɞ4 2ť 8-G2008ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A źľ93ł1DGĔTHORN42007ƀ1 394MWh548oMWhͿ2008ƀ1 644oMWh895o

MWhͿ-)amp3ĔTHORN1ť2007ƀ1 348MWh483oMWhͿ2008ƀ14 215MWh299oMWhͿ˰EgraveHamp FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideHGFITǕʘǴ4(E3bA 20ƀ1ijŚHG

(f) Q54Q1 1ʆampmg4bPͶoumlɯąmiddot (AEE) D7 Intermoney śǟampʃʐ1ļ+A3-G

522 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

bP3ȳͶoumlɯSN4 62SN1ccedilotildeHHE3SN-4ͶoumlɯˠiacuteHGHE3SN1ťTHORNǸ˖JHG10G3śɱPq`NizK5currenɂHGQOo

yM3ˠȕ4ʢ 1000 MW-G

(b) ccedil-1 mg0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig mg0

ˮȲ 9 Zb III4sectʬ˵Ũɯȗ (DFIG) D7ccedilŚȉ3]ugKɥampͶZb IV4ĝǴɯȗD7y

Śȉ]ugE0GͶccedil͵HG3ccedil͵ǞȰ3˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

48

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mg0

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A mg0

(f) Q54Q1 mg0

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 5-25-54sup23 LCOEccedilǿ-ɥampm[3ntildeNjǼacuteKʆA3-G]bn3sup3Ś4szlig 2007

ƀ 2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZnK˘A3-2008ƀnǨ3-˘ʆG

Ugrave 5-3 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 30 30 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ 15 15 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ 2200 2150 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1233 (1714) 1250 (1738) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 191 (266) 196 (272) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA

Ugrave 5Ă4 1CNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 9 10 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 6 7 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 NA NA Ǵ ƀ 15 15 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 30 30 NA NA

FXn $ 139 139 NA NA

Ugrave 5-5 1CNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 53 (74) 54 (75) NA NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 34 (47) 35 (49) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ

ͼ 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 20 20 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 36 (51) 37 (52) NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

49

523 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 5-7 1CNrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup330

(b) BL0+dj bP3ͶoumlɯaRZn4đɔbDFAˬOtildeeumlɥɞfrac12ͶȯbP3szligːǨ1Ɛ

GampbP3 LCOE4đɔb3 LCOEDFA 18MWh25oMWhͿ0)Gđɔb3ſĹːǨLJŚ 2680Ǩ-G31ťbP4 2150Ǩ0)G szligːǨ4bP3 LCOE đɔb3 LCOE 3Ÿɮ13ǰA˞0Ńǘ-GͶȯ1divide

ʰƾAđɔbKĮ)FH14ĸdegD7ĸĻBˇȬiquest˞ȨGeumlɲɞAĠ=HG LCOE33˷ǥ0Gʖ 33˞į4˺]bn-F3ͳ4aRZn3WACCD7ǰʨɱ

1ě3Ʒ1˞ȨHGƷĔɲɞ (ROI) KŀdivideG

(c) ccedil-1 bP3Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4ʢ 1250kW1738okWͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 200

kW278 okWͿŘbP-4Ʒ]bnfrac12ampLCOE 4 10 MWh14 oMWhͿfrac120G ǑĐ]bn4QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘʨpoundamp3ɯˬOtilde3˥iquest]bnKĠampͳ-ʱƷ]

bn3ʢ 3ͼKĈG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bP3brvbarAring1Gyacuteɛȯ1ˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlɲɞ4đɔbDFA0)G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig bP-4ʰƾđɔbDFA0)GbP3ʰƾʱͳ14ʌĸdeg

ʚɡ]bnKĠamp3ŃuumlĠ=HGnotƔ3ʪethȿoumlˇŞȸǛ3ǤˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ

˜Ɵ3=F1DFʰƾAŀdivideG˟gt-G ſĹbP3ʰƾ4ʢ 196MWh272oMWhͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 7

MWh10oMWhͿ

ĎȲ30 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

50

524 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

Yacute1ampD1bP14 FIT iacuteƄͶoumlɯ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄͿźľiacuteƄźľEgraveȉͶoumlɯ3ĽŌͿ 23ǓƱiquestʡG2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ3ʢ 91ͼKźľiacuteƄ1DFłampH4ɯȐʿDFŅ3ĔTHORNKƖEHGamp-G x 5-8 4ĔTHORN3ŃǘȥǛͿͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOz3ŃǘbP1GźľiacuteƄ

3ĽŌͿKȣampA3-G

x 5Q-8 1CNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup331

525 aringmH7B

bP3mccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿ-G3EſĹbP3ͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOzEaRZnɯ

3yacute˞acuteKɄamp-G3ăccedil0Xj`yKƖGJG

53 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 5Ă6 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+psup332

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

76 (106)

83 (115) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

87 (121)

86 (120) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash11 (ndash15)

ndash3 (ndash4) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2009) ldquoEoacutelica 09 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Julio 2009)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileANUARIO20COMPLETO5B15Dpdf

ĎȲ31 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ32 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

51

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2008) ldquoEoacutelica 08 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Junio 2008)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee- publicaAEE_anuario_ingles08pdf

AEE ndash Intermoney (2006) ldquoEstudio de costes del sector eoacutelico Realizado por Intermoney para AEE (2006)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee-publica060612-Gen-EolicaEsp- PRALpdf

Comisioacuten Nacional de la Energiacutea (CNE) wwwcnees

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Red Eleacutectrica de Espantildea (REE) Spanish TSO wwwreees Royal Decree 6612007 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacionRD_661-2007-REpdf Royal Decree 4362004 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacion(36)RD436_2004pdf Spanish Market Operator (OMEL) wwwomeles

52

Aring 6Auml 1$QN

61 1$QNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bQRm3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙ0E71 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿK˷ǥG

611 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş42004ƀ1 474 MW)amp3 2008ƀǶ14 937 MW0)Gx 6-1ͿbQRmĆ3ȳQOoyM3ˬOtildeş4 2007ƀ14 110 MW-)amp=ampqN`N133Ƀ-3ɯAEHG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯcurrenɂ4EUdivideɳĴ3ěĴaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 3mg1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)

x 6-1 1$QNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_Uacuteuacute

ǛΆVinkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 and European Commission 2010 Ugrave 6-14bQRm1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=amp

Ugrave 6-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 6-1 1$QNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

220 220 272 322 381 429 470 560 698 951 2065 4365

ȳ 10 20 23 23 23 23 23 23 133 133 150 182

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

53

Ugrave 6-2 1$QNoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

ndashndashndash 05 51 50 59 48 41 90 138 253 278 288

ȳ ndashndashndash 10 25 0 0 0 0 0 110 0 4 4

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

612 s_CcedilN3N9A

bQRm-4aumlɣė˃SrY1DGɯ3ǓǎʘĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ (TGC) KŨTHORNG$3ɶɱ42016ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 17 TWh1ŀB-G3ɶȔOacuteK2020ƀ=-1ė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 25 TWh1GE1OacuteGampɠķ3iacuteƄ3ǔȜȏ˪HG=ampbQRmsQR3aacute`bl3Ȓʝ1ğampordfȾ˖J

HG 2008 ƀ=-4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ˖ɢĿĽŌ13AĤ5HGijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) Ͷoumlɯ

1ɥHamp3ɢĿĽŌ134ȳͶoumlɯ14 2009ƀ=-eumlɥė˃-)amp=amp 2003ƀ1vPjnaRZn3Ǔǎ˩ɩŐHampȳͶoumlɯţaringȥNtildeȎȀĸŻ-3Ͷoumlɯ)

ampˉģȻ˟0HampaRZn12008 ƀE 2012 ƀ=-3Ǵ1 3710 5160 oͿ3currenʙotildeƎEHG

2006 ƀʈǕƃ3ɢĿƐccedilǿ1Gˠiuml0E71ǝˠͶoumlɯaRZn3˴ėdbʞɬĀH25 MW=-3QOoyM4ˇȬiquest1ŭaeligH5ˬʹ-G0)amp ͶɅ3eumlɥ1GƥĽKƁcedilGampbQRmǕƃ3Ũ3Ͷoumlɯ3eumlɥ1GĴatilder

jnZĎȲ33ȒʝHamp3rjnZ1DFͶoumlɯ3˩ɩʘŚD7˴ŚʋuacuteOslashoumlbrvbarȐ3ɯ

Ůʰƾʚɡ1Gʀ˾KȻbQRm3ͶoumlɯɯaRZnKEumlH

G E1Ͷoumlɯ3]mOrgKɥɯbrvbarȐʿEcircƎŬ0E71ĸUcircĸĻĴ3ě|1

GEcircʿ3ordfȵEumlKIJ)G

62 1$QNVUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

621 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bQRm-43aRZn3szligːǨ4 2600Έ3050 ǨĽġHGżbQR

m3Ͷoumlɯj1ʆHGszligːǨ4ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿNjaeligampǘŒKĮ)

G3amp˩ʙ-4bQRm3aRZn3ǰʨɱ0ͶoumlɯǨKĽġHampʜı3 2600ǨͿG

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3aRZn42008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZn3]bnD7ɯoumlēǧ

Hampdeg˘ɱaRZnŚʻHamp Ƿ]bn4ampF 12171915kW1692Έ2662okWͿ=-Fmccedilǿ-4 1591kW2212okWͿsup3Śamp

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3ijŚccedil4ſĹ 0004 kW0006 okWͿŃuumlccedil4ʢ 11 MWh15 o

ĎȲ33 httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse đɔ

54

MWhͿLJŚG3Ńuuml4 7 MWh10 oMWhͿE 24 MWh33 oMWhͿ=-FvPjnaRZn1Gʰƾ4ż1ŃuumlņɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒

ɮ0)G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 Ugrave 6-51ʆD1mccedilǿ-4OumleumlőKƷŞżĽġG 5˟L-GͶoumlɯ1Ʒ

GparaȐ3middot˩Ľġ3ccedilǿ-420ͼƍOuml]bnʆHGbQRm3paraȐccedilǿEŨaeligampƛ˞0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞʫ7macrOumleumlőɞK 5LJŚampľĜͶoumlɯ3]bnKũ˰EgraveG10F20

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ǵŋʢ1DGźľ93oumlłŨTHORNHGĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ

23ĔTHORN3ȵH1D)KƖG(E3ĔTHORNɅAʄśƟż12008ƀ=-FITĽŌiacuteƄAɥHFͶoumlɯaRZn4 2 MWh3 oMWhͿŪͳ3ĽŌKĖamp

(f) Q54Q1 LCOE˩ʙ3mg4˫3D0ɥǓǎ˩ɩ3ʫȁD7Ĵatilde3_3amp1bQRmSrY

Ŭ=ampmg)amp˜ǘ3ƥĽɅ1ļ+A3-GǑĐ]bn4 Svensk Vindenergi (2009) 3mgKAumlɥampbQRm3Ͷoumlɯ˩ɩ1Gʭ˩Oacute4bQRmSrYŬȢƀɯ˘

GĽġǮ ES20103 ldquoVindkraft statistic 2009 (Wind power statistics 2009)rdquoD7 Vindkraft Statistik 20081ļ+G2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯǨ4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ3mgKAumlɥGE1Ͷoumlɯ3ɯȐbrvbarʿEʆmg3NjAEligKĖamp=ampEcircGotildeƊɞKǥE1Gampmiddot˩ǛKđɔampE14˚Ǜ O2 0E71 AriseȇƉźľ3ŨTHORN1GbrvbarȐaeligɘəEŦŞ3Ƨ˟KƊɥamp

622 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

2008ƀǨɏ-ŨTHORNHampbQRmǰņ3ȳaRZn4Lillgrunden3 11 MW3aRZn-)amp3aRZn4 Vattenfall 2004ƀ1Ɗʮ2007ƀ1ʡʭ1ʡHampLillgrundenaRZn-4 Siemens3 23 MWͶ MKII 48ļAumlɥHG$3( 13ļ4 2004ƀsup2ntilde1ʡʭ1ʡHGbQRm3ǰǝaRZn4 3 MW3Ͷ 10ļKOtildeamp GaumlsslingegrundaRZn-H4 VaumlnernɃ3Ģ 7Έ13m1ļʅKˬʹampqN`N133aRZn-G

Ugrave 6-3 LillgrundenBL0+Z

Lillgrundenmg Ά ļɆȷDF 115 m gɷƑΆ 924 m ʱʏΆ 6734 m2 iacuteƗǞȰΆ ėŃxjiD7ėŃƄ gƄΆ 6Έ16 rpm ǰņYacuteʔƄΆ 280 kmh gΆ 60 t pdΆ 82 t gΆ 110 t LJŚƀɯoumlΆ 6875500 kWh ˬOtildeeumlɥɞΆ 35ͼ ſĹͶΆ 85 ms

55

Ugrave 6-4 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 235 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 41 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2600 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1591 (2212) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 0004 (0006) NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 16 (222) NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 6-5 1$QNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 12 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 87 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 13 NA NA WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 47 NA NA

Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 28 NA NA

FXn SEKeuro ndashndashndash 942 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

Ugrave 6-6 1$QNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 50 (70) NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 25 (35) NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 2 (3) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 1 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

623 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

x 6-2 1ʆD1bQRm3 LCOE 4đɔbDFʢ 1 MWh1 oMWhͿfrac120)G

56

x 6-2 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1psup334

(a) BL0+dj bQRm3szligːǨ4đɔbDFAH4ͶoumlɯaRZn1eumlɥ-Gĵĸʏ

^[ampreg3Țŵ˽ĴDFAņampƎɓ3-G

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3Ʒ4oumlɯaRZnTGC `bl2001 ƀEŨTHORNͿ0E71Ǡœ3 NordPool

ʡʭ1995ƀEoumlĕƊͿ3amp1đɔbDFABB0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig đɔbbQRm3ʰƾ3Ÿɮ4ǰũ3A3-H4^1DGė˃Ɵʹ˒

-40

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bQRm3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12H4bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ93Ʒ1

GbZ3|frac12E-FbQRm3Ͷoumlɯɯ1GʪEƎɓ3˧G

x 6-3 1$QNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup335

ĎȲ34 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

57

624 s_CcedilN3N9A

ĔTHORN4 1Ϳoumlł1DGĔTHORN2Ϳ[˯Ǯł1DGĔTHORN3ͿFITE3Ūͳ3ĔTHORN2009ƀ1ƆțͿ3 3-ȒƭHG ĔTHORN4źľE33ȵH-GampʄśƟņ0b-4ȥǛ4 50 MWh

70 oMWhͿ-ŘŚG˟0H[˯ǮEgraveȉ4ʢ 25 MWh35 oMWhͿ)amp2009ƀ1OacuteHamp

625 aringmH7B ſĹɱ0aRZn14ouml3źľEgraveȉ TGCiacuteƄ3˚UgraveKʩgtĜJG-ăccedil1]bnK

-GD-G

Ugrave 6-7 1$QNIumlsectpsup336

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 75

(104) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash8

(ndash11) NA NA

63 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 6-7 1ʆampD1bQRm3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˇŹǷ]bnD7Ouml]bnfrac12amp1ǷdivideſĹĎEgrave (WACC) ȣɱfrac120)GD-GaRZn3AEligʬ4Ouml1DGǷ˺1DGA3-macr3˺Ǵ4 20ƀ-G$HDFAmacrǴʁľĜA$EG˕Ǵ3ʨpoundǨ1ʸFHG bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ4ȞĘ=ampƀƞ1ƭG2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrY

ɅK 25 TWh1GɶȔKƭGamp14ͶoumlɯKE1ɯŮƛ˞G

rOtildemiddot

Dagens Industri wwwdise 2010-03-16 Storm kring vindkraftsbolag

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

E24 wwwe24se 2010-03-16 Vindkraftsbolagen anklagas foumlr glaumldjekalkyler Nationellt naumltverk foumlr vindbruk (national network for winduse) httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse

Svensk Vindenergi 2009 Vindkraftverk ndash kartlaumlggning av aktiviteter och kostnader vid nedmontering aringterstaumlllande av plats och aringtervinning

Vinkraftstatistik 2009 ES 20103 2010 Swedish Energy Agency available at

ĎȲ35 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ36 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

58

httpwwwenergimyndighetenseGlobalPressPressmeddelandenVindkraftsstatistik202009p df

Vindkraftstatistik 2007 ES 20082 2008 Swedish Energy Agency available at httpwwwenergimyndighetenseen

59

Aring 7Auml 11

71 11uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bPb3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙacirciquestɱ14 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿ3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1GbPb4atildeĴ-GampȳaRZn4œķ0ǪˤIgrave3ampɃȭĸĻ4ɠķͶoumlɯ^PnEńHG

711 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş41996ƀ3 2 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 14 MW1ŀdivideampͶoumlɯ1DGƀɯouml4 2000ƀ3 18 GWhE 2008ƀ3 2020 GWh1ŀdivideampH1ť 2008ƀ3ʱ˞ouml4 587 TWh-Gɠķ˩ɩEHGaRZn1D)2012ƀ14 65 MW3ɯė˃10GLJŚHGǕƃ3SrYǕʘ-4 2030ƀ1 44 MWKɯGɶȔKljG

x 7-1 11uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

Ugrave 7-14bPb1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 7-24ĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-1 11IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

28 28 451 455 456 866 116 116 116 136 176 65 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

60

Ugrave 7-2 11oacute_ethyumlMWĀ

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

28 00 170 065 001 350 290 002 000 200 400 150 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

712 s_CcedilN3N9A

bPb-4 2008 ƀ1oPkĝȓ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄFITͿKŨTHORNamp3`bl4LJŚHG LCOEKamp3A3-GFIT 1Ġ=HG34oumlźľEgraveȉ[ouml3Oacute-GͶoumlɯ14bPb3 FIT4 110MWh153oMWhͿΈ130MWh181oMWhͿ1ijŚHG

72 11VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

721 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZn42 MW3Ͷ 6ļKOtildeamp Juraű˅Ȕ 1000Έ1200 mͿ3

QOoyM-GbPb1GͶoumlaRZn3L2 MW3ͶgɷƑ 82 mtzʢ 8 0mͿKɥG3ĸĻ-4NZdbiacuteHGamp1gɷƑg31ˬEHFŚȉaeligouml 800Έ1000 kWtz 40~60 m3ͶKeumlɥG

(b) ccedil-1 bPb1Gdeg˘ɱ0aRZn3ě3Ʒ]bn4ampF 1790 kW2488 kWͿ-G

Țŵ1GͶ93Ʒ]bn3otildeĜ4ſĹʢ 76bPb-4 55~6810)G34bPb3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn93NZdbďiacuteHGamp=ampbPb-4laquoacuteż1amp-G

3ampɯƯ3ʪȣɱ0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ14bPb-4śʷŪ0ampEWEA agrave˘ampʰƾ3ȣ1ļ+bPb3ʰƾK 31MWh43oMWhͿsup3Śamp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 sup23˘4bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥamp˺]bnKʆG

Ugrave 7-3 ccedilntildeacirciacute-1YacuteEgrave

źľeuml 5 ƛ˞0Ƿeumlɲɞ 7

Ƿ3otildeĜ 30 ˀɥƀǘ 20ƀ ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ 20ƀ

Py 0 Ǵ 20ƀ

ȰlaquoʌɞOECDͿ 21

61

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A bPb14aumlɣė˃SrYɯ3brvbarȐeumlɥ-Gɜʑ3ĔTHORN`bl 2ʍ͵G 64 FIT `bl-H4sup23]bn˩ʙ3ļɵ0GA3-3ȽKĖEHG34Ȧoumlɯ

10 MWsup2atildeͿňɖɯͶoumlɯuPUb0E71uPUbƆǺ-Gaumlɣė˃SrYɅ[vͿ1DGɯ1ɥė˃03Ǜ`bl4ɯǞƉaeligoumlecirc1đɔˬOtilde1ļ+acirciquest

ɱ1ˠŚHěƴ˗3 LCOEK-Gshyʩgt10)GȽ4ɯǞƉ1D) 20Έ25ƀ3Ǵ1ɥHGcurrenƦHGƴ˗db0E71HE3ƴ˗3źľĀEuml1DFHE3Ǜ`bl

-4ͳ3Ƞɱfrac12currenƦHGǛ3ȿͳɥHG34ɰampɯˬOtilde3gt-FHE3ˬ

Otilde4ȽǴK ŚampǛ`bl1DFȽKĖGɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKLľĜ$HĝǨ1oumlźľ-[oumlKłG4-00G ʖ 2 3ĔTHORN`bl4[oumlźľ-GɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKeumlɥ-0ľĜ4źľ-

oumlKłG10Gż$3ĔTHORN4ɯbrvbarȐʿoumlmiddotʇ3ordfȾ1D)ȪŚHGoumlĽŌK

ouml3źľEgraveȉ1divideampͳ-G

(f) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşmg4 Swiss Wind Energy Association ldquoSuisse Eolerdquo1DGA3-GƷ]bn

ʰƾ3mg4 2008ƀ1˩ɩHampͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ȇ1DGA3-G˺]bn4 FIT˩ʙD7 Swiss Federal Office of Energy3mTHORNouml3sup3Ś1ļ+A3-G Ugrave 7-47-64bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOELJŚ1ɥampmĀ1Gsup3ŚKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-4 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 2 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 6 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 1750 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1790 (2488) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 31 (43) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 7-5 11uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 7 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 30 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 70 NA NA Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 21 NA NA

FXn CHFeuro ndashndashndash 067 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

62

Ugrave 7-6 11uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125 (174) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash Ńuuml NA NA

ɯȐʿTHORNȐʿ-ordfȾ

73 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯ]bn4ʢ 120MWh167oMWhͿ-đɔbDFA 58MWh81oMWhͿ0)G

731 -1plusmnecirc

x 7-2 11uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecircpsup337

(a) BL0+igraveeacuteOgrave bPb-ɯHampouml4đɔbDFA˒Ū00)GH4ͶoumlɯʋƄ-Gamp

-GszligːǨ 1750ǨͿ

ĎȲ37 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringěĴ LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0G

ľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

63

(b) ccedil-1 bPb3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAH4Ņ3^Pn93NZdbİ

˜-GD7laquoacuteamp-GbPb3aRZn4ũˠȕ03-ņˠȕ0aRZ

nȣͶTHORNǨ3otildeƊɞfrac120)G

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig bPb3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAɯƯ-4ɼȧcentȵĪͲ10)F$3ampʰƾʚɡ

]bn0)GbPb-4ʰƾ1Gśʷ4L0

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bPb3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ4 7HGraquoL3a

RZn4yacute3ɡɦ1DFƷ0oumlmiddotʇ˺Goumlmiddotʇ4[ouml3˞3

=F1ƚKŠG

732 s_F(=2E

bPb1GͶoumlɯ3 FIT4 110~130MWh153Έ181oMWhͿ-mĀccedilǿ-4 125MWh174oMWhͿKɥGĔTHORN3DF˳˷ǥ4 721ugrave(e) Kđɔ3|-4$Hsup2ń3yacuteǓǎ`bl40

x 7-3 11uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup338

733 aringmH7B bPb-4ǕʘPdlOz1DF LCOE K)Gx 7-3 EbPb3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaR

Zn-4 FIT1DF LCOEK˚)GJG

ĎȲ38 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

64

73

Ugrave 7-7 11uumljBL0+psup339

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 120

(167) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125

(174) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash5

(ndash7) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

Die Website fuumlr Windenergie-Daten der Schweiz Accessed at wwwwind-datach

Erlaumluternder Bericht zur Revision der Anhaumlnge EnV Bundesamt fuumlr Energie 2102009

Swiss Energy Act of June 26 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_0html

Swiss Energy Ordinance of December 7 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_01html

ĎȲ39 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

65

Aring 8Auml Ecircz

81 Ecirczuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4ʟĴ1GD7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1$3]bn3ɚƙɚ1 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3ŚK˷ǥGȳͶoumlɯ14ʟĴ-4=$3ɯ1Gśʷ ampʞć1˦HG3gtG=ampAring 1 Auml1ʆampđɔbȣamp2008ƀ3ʟĴ3]bnccedilǿʫȁK˷ǥG

811 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

ʟĴ1GʦʏˬOtildeş42000ƀ3ʢ 25 GWE 2008ƀǶ3 25 GW1ŀdivideampx 8-1Ϳ2005ƀsup2ěƀƄ3ƀˬOtildeş4˫Kǭǝʯ2008ƀ14ǝamp1 85 GWdivideHampĎȲ402008ƀ14ǝˠɯşszligiquest3 42KͶoumlɯĈGſĹɱ0ƀ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeş1DFʟĴ3ʱȸouml3ʢ 19ͼKAEligʬ-GHG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)2008ƀ3ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4szlig3ͶoumlɯƯ1GǘOacute-GȳͶoumlɯaRZnA˩ɩHFɠķ4$3˴ėĕƖ

Ƞ1G x 8-1 4ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3Đ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71 2012 ƀ3currenɂD7 2030 ƀ

3ɉķɱ`pUKʆG

x 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

ʟĴ4ǥʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3ɶȔOacuteKˬŚ0ƕ)x 8-1 4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴŞɶȔOacute3degJF3mgɏKʆampA3-GSrYƥĽŬ (EIA) 3ʁǴcurrenɂ1DH52012 ƀ1ǝamp1ʢ 10 GW divideHGampˬOtildeş4 2008ƀDFAGʋƄŀdivideG˟gt-G (EIA 2009)ĎȲ41Ǵcurrenɂ1Gƀ3ʃʐ-

ĎȲ40 ś3IʟĴ-4 2009ƀA3timesğʯFǝamp1divideHampͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4 10 GWƍ10

(AWEA2010)ǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ŅĴȣ3ťHamp 2008ƀ1GA3-G ĎȲ41 Yacute1ampD12009ƀ1ɯHampͶoumlɯ3ˬʹş4 10 GWƍ10 (AWEA 2010)

66

4ɉķɱ0Ͷoumlɯ`pU3ccedilǿ1ļ+2030ƀ=-1ʟĴ-˟=HGouml˞3 20KͶoumlɯ-Ʉamp-GG (DOE 2008)3ʃʐ3LJŚ1DH520Pbn1Gamp14Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 305 GWƛ˞10GD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Ĝ˩Ϳ=amp3ʃʐ-42018ƀ=-1ƀˬOtildeşʢ 16 GW1ŀdivideGLJŚG Ugrave 8-1 4ʟĴ1GĐD7notƔcurrenɂHGʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 8-2 4Đ

D7notƔcurrenɂHGƀŨTHORNşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

25 26 43 47 64 68 92 117 169 255 595 251

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

Ugrave 8-2 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

NA 01 17 04 17 04 24 25 52 86 103 16

ȳ NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

812s_CcedilN3N9A

ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ3ampGĔTHORNɅ4oumlłaumlɣė˃SrYźľ˯ǥ (REC) -Gouml3ʪȽEgraveOacute REC3ł4ĸĻźľ$3reg3Ǽacute1DFaRZnȢ1ɮ0)G ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ4Ǖƃ3ʌiacute3UacuteLjʹ1D)ǓEHG2008 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ

ƴ˗143UacuteLjʹPy˺Ǚɣɤʌͳdž PTCͿ ɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČɥė˃-)amp (Schwabe et al 2009)

PTC4 2004ƀ=-1AgraveƄɄǴ1ampH3ľĜAǭǝHamp2000ƀE 2004ƀ=-1Aɯņ1EumlHamp2004ƀsup24 PTCżǨɥ-GD10)ampamp2005ƀE 2009ƀ1ʟĴ3ƀŨTHORNş4˫ɱ1ŀdivideamp (AWEA 2010) Ǖƃ3Ǖʘȿʌ4$3ť0Gaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗1˞0ʪȽɱEacuteɲKAampEGɠķ

EgraveOacute1ļ+ͶoumlɯaRZn14PTC divideUgraveČ3sect3Eacuteɲ1DFļɆaRZn3ˬʹ]bn3 35KG˟gt-G (Bolinger 2010)ľĜ1D)4PTCdivideUgraveČ3˜Ĝɱ0ʪȽucircȁouml3ł REC3ĔTHORN1ʗ0GG4$HKĮG10G (Harper et al 2007)ĎȲ42

82 Ecircz 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ƿʛ-42008 ƀ3ʟĴ1Gdeg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKGǷĽġǮ3reg3Ĵ3ȣ3ampʟĴ3ſĹɱG4deg˘ɱ0aRZn3ɚƙKsup21˷ǥGraquoȜʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3aR

Zn]bnɚƙ4ĸĻ1D)ɮ0FˬOtildeşAņ

ĎȲ42 H4Ͷoumlɯ3oumlȥǛĸUcirc3 RECEgraveȉ)ampĸĻ1D)ɮ0GǘŅ3˞į1ŷęHG

67

821 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ1G3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ſĹˬOtildeş4 1998Έ1999ƀ3ʢ 35 MWE 2007ƀ3 120 MW

=-F2008ƀ14 83 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ1ˬʹHampͶ3Śȉş4 05 MWǵɄE 3 MW=-F2008ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn-4ſĹ 167 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ3ǰAˊɱ0Ͷ4Śȉaeligouml 15 MWgɷƑ 77 mtz 80 m (GE2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) -G

(b) BL0+Ouml ͶɅ34aRZn1D)ņ1ɮ0)Gszligiquestɱ14ʟĴ-4ɡƦɱ0Ͷȯ10)G

ʟĴ3aRZn3szligːǨ4ʢ 1800Έ4400 ǨŃuumlņ2008 ƀ14şdivideſĹ 3066 ǨˤŤHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ43szligːǨ3LJŚOacute4 2007ƀ1ˬʹH 2008ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+A3-ʟĴszligiquest3ͶɅ3ɉķƟK|b1ampA3-40ɏ1ɫƧ-

G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn4ƀɼś1ŀdivideG2008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZ

n14Ʒ]bn4ǰfrac12ʢ 1000kW1400okWͿE 1800kW2500okWͿƍ=-FşdivideſĹ4 1378kW19195okWͿ-G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ44

Ľġ1DH5Ͷ3ĕƊEgraveȉAƀǤtimesğ1)amp2008 ƀ3˕Ċȗ0E71$H1sup1ǪȥƔ1DG˞frac123Ɛ-Ͷ3EgraveȉD7AEligʬ3frac12ɣ G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009 Bolinger 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ14ijŚŃuuml3ǞĠ=H(E-˘ADş|b3]bn

kWͿ14Igraveɤʌ$3reg3ǟˬ]bnˬOtildeordfnjǔŃouml|b3ĸdegʗĠ=HGʟĴ-eumlɥė˃03ʰƾ3mg4EHG3ampǷĽġǮ1ʆʰƾ4LJŚOacute1

ˁĕFʫȁʆĨGD1ǨǴūǣ3ĦordfnjKĠampʰƾĽġHampmg1ăccedilēǧH

0ė˃ƟGE1notƔ4Ͷ3ʽǹĀBIgrave˯Ǵ3ʨpound1DFʰƾ3LJŚOacuteǤGė

˃ƟG 2000ƀdeg1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯaRZn1Wiser Bolinger4 2000Έ2008ƀ3şdivideſĹ

ʰƾK 58MW80oMWͿ˟L-G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009) raquo3ʰƾ14ˊɱ1ɤʌĠ=H03]bnKĠGamp1Wiser Bolinger 3

LJŚOacute1ƀſĹ 50kW70okWͿ3ɤʌ3LJŚǓƱͳĎȲ45divideʙHGɤʌKĠamp

ʰƾʱͳ4Ńuuml-˘5 74MWh103oMWhͿijŚ-4ƀ 226kW314okWͿ-GĎȲ46ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3ʃʐ-42010ƀ=-3ʰƾKʢ 69MWh96oMWhͿBBfrac12˟ʏA)G (DOE 2008)ĎȲ47

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯɯaRZn3˺-4ˇŹ3otildeĜKaRZn|

b3OumlKlteampˇŹ3otildeĜ0)G34114ȞĘɱ1ɣɤʌdžǜʯɱ1˖JHampamp-GOuml1DG˺4ͶoumlɯaRZn3˺ǴKƊ=amp

˜1Gė˃ƟFE14ʪȽɱEgraveOacute3G PTCǴKŗH00GƠHG (Harper et al 2007) Ouml1DG˺KŪ0GǞğƟɣ amp34aRZnɯi`blSrYD

7Ǩ14ɢĿ˞ʥKĠͿ3aeligouml3˃ouml13KʰƾGKdzLamp-$3ampSrYŋʢǛ

ĎȲ43 ˬOtildeeumlɥɞ 35ͼ1ļ+ ĎȲ44 ]bn4szlig 2008ƀƄ3D7o-˘ʆ2008ƀ 12DZ 31ǡsup23onjʙ1ɥampɐǯn4 1

139o (Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ45 NREL3atildemg|bELJŚampɤʌǓƱͳ3ſĹ ĎȲ46 2008ƀ3ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71szligːǨTHORNoumlsup3Ś1ļ+ ĎȲ47 ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71 2008ƀƄ3szligːǨTHORNoumlLJŚOacute1ļ+ 2008ƀo1ŃnjampLJŚOacute

68

1ijŚG40)ampE-GʟĴ3Ouml3ư4ż`bl3szligaeligouml1ťSrYŋʢEgraveȉ

Kbrvbarntilde1ȪŚK˞ȨG (Cory and Schwabe 2009)E14 2008ƀƔĄ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ouml1DG˺4Ĵ˕źľ3˕ȴuumlbZĮ3amp˕Ċȗ3ntildeȣ˒İ10

)G (Schwabe et al 2009) mccedilǿ-4 100ͼǷƷKsup3ŚG3˺4 2008 ƀ1ʟĴ1ǃregɱ1-40ʸF

˖JHampȷń-4$Hˊɱ-40)ampͿmĀccedilǿ-42008ƀ1ƛ˞HampˇŹǷeumlɲɞK 75ͼsup3ŚG(Chadbourne and Parke 2009)3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ42008ƀ 10DZ3˕Ċȗ$31 100Έ200`bPnĽġHGǷ1DG˺]bnņŽ1ŀdivideampͿ3ƐKĖamp1ɫƧ-G (Chadbourne and Parke 2009 Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

(f) s_CcedilN3N9A ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3˞0ĔTHORNɅ41ͿǴŋʢG4źľ|b3Egraveȉ1ļ+oumlD

7aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3ł2Ϳɣɤʌdž3žĀ3ͿɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3dividełČ3 3ʍ͵-GʟĴ-4ouml RECł1DGĔTHORNĸĻD7źľ1D)˒ɮ0)Gouml14ˠiacuteHGH0REC14ˇɯɱaumlɣė˃SrYotildeƎʻyacuteKŗGͿmccedilǿ-4ĹʗdivideſĹͶoumlɯEgraveȉ3LJŚOacute4 ǴɱŋʢEgraveȉouml REC3ǞKĠͿčźľEgraveȉouml3gtͿ1 RECKecircdivideampEgraveȉ3Oacute10Gsup3ŚGĎȲ482008ƀ3ͶoumlɯEgraveȉ3ſĹ4ʢ 419MWh582 oMWhͿLJŚHGĎȲ49Py˺Ǚɣɤʌdž42008 ƀ14ʢ 151 MWh210oMWhͿHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)Ś3Ƿ]bn3divideUgraveČ4 6ƀ˩ɩ-˖JHm-4 1Έ6ƀɶ1$HH 20ͼ32ͼ192ͼ115ͼ115ͼ3otildeĜ-UgraveČHGĎȲ50

(g) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3mĀccedilǿ-4==0mgfbKɥampɚ1eumlɥė˃0agraveɱǛKUacuteYacuteamp

1ʆampszlig3mgfb3bnKǷʒ3đʾǚɝ1ʆaRZn3ɚƙaRZn3Ɵ˃

Ʒ]bnʰƾ)ampŃǘ14Wiser and Bolinger 20093ecirc˘1E1˳˷ǥG

822 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

ɠķ=-3IʟĴ-4ĩɥˠȕ3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥAring40ƈˬ3aRZnA

0ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3Ľġ-4= 2012Έ2018ƀ1ĩɥȳͶoumlɯ3ɯaRZnȶȦĻƴ˗KɥǾȷųȫ-ɱ1˖JHG10GǴƒHGđʾ3amp-4currenƦHGȳ

ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKʆampʟĴ-ɥHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn4=œķ0

ampHE3LJŚOacute4 LCOEmccedilǿ1Ġ0

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ3ȳͶ4|b3aRZnDFAņˠȕ0A310FDFˍō0ͶȯKeumlɥamp

ė˃10GGAring5^idjkŵ-ȏ˪HGCape WindȳͶoumlɯaRZn-4Ͷ3^PcK 36 MWGɯ˘0Hamp (Cape Wind 2010)szligːǨ3ʜı4 3000ǨEʢ4800ǨLJŚHG (DOE 2008)

(b) ccedil-1 ȳͶoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4Ńuumlņ2000 ƀdegĄ5E4ğtimesğ1GʟĴȚŵ-NjȊH

GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn13ƀ3˺Ȇ1DH5Ʒ]bn4ʢ 3100 kW

ĎȲ48 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3 43ͼ3aRZnƯDzʿ4GʋƄ3ĩȐbZK10G=amp

oumllO[ƺƎʿA3bZKė˃ƟGHE3ƺƎʿ4 2008ƀ1ͶoumlɯˬOtildeşKǝamp17ͼTHORNamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)3ccedilǿ-42008ƀ3ǝˠͶoumlɯ3 50ͼKźľ|b3Egraveȉ0J(ĩȐEgraveȉͿȟF3 50ͼKǴɱŋʢEgraveȉsup3ŚG

ĎȲ49 2008ƀ3Egraveȉ1Gsup23sup3Ś4Wiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+A3-sup23Fsup3ŚG(1)ǴɱͶoumlɯŋʢEgraveȉoumlRECͿ= 515oMWh(2)čłbjnźľEgraveȉ =5oMWh(3)aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ = 5oMWh

ĎȲ50 3UgraveČ˩ɩ4ƀĄ53ƫAring1ļ+A3-2008ƀ 2009ƀ1eumlɥė˃)amp 50ͼĽŌUgraveČ4ʾƬ0

69

4300 okWͿ-H4notƔǘƀ1ƈˬcurrenŚHGaRZn1GOacute-GĎȲ51H1ť

US Offshore Wind Collaborative-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn4 3300kW4600okWͿ10GcurrenɂG (USOWC 2009)

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn=ɥH0ampʰƾ3currenƦ4˒ʄśƟG

ɯ˘HGmg40ʟĴȚŵ-NjȊHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ1G

ǰ3˟ʏF1DH5ʱ]bn4ʢ 137MWh19oMWhͿ10GĎȲ52

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯ3ɯD7ɥ1bZ˟=HF=ampɯBɥ3ʪA0amp

Ǝeacute3(4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bnaRZnDFA4G10GcurrenƦ

HGȳͶoumlaRZn3˺-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3cedilʭɱ0ƷưȠ0J(Igrave

middotʇͿ-40bZ˭şƄ3ƷưȠ0J(Ȥ3ˇŹǷͿeumlɥHGƝJHGAring5Ȥ

3ˇŹǷƷ1ƛ˞HGeumlɲɞ4ś˯Gƴ˗1 25Έ350GcurrenƦHG (Justice 2010)=ampʟǕƃ4ĩɥD7ǝɱaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗3$Hͳ-0Ouml1DGǷ˺KǓǎ

Gamp3˕OgraveTHORNIgrave˯KNjAEligG(EAȳƴ˗1ɥ-Gė˃ƟAGͿraquoɠ˖Ȱ-4

˕Igrave˯˩ɩ3˺3eumlɥė˃Ɵ0E71ɧ˻ʿ3ȉEHG (DOE 2010) ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɥė˃0|ŵ|3PdlOz4ȳͶoumlɯaRZ

n1Aeumlɥ-Gsup3ŚHGǕƃ3PdlOz14˫3 PTCɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČĠ=HGɚ1ǾȷųȫcopyņɃĸĻ3ŵ4ě3ʚĂ1GȳͶoumlɯaRZnKEuml

Gamp3==0ǞȰKeumlɥHE3aRZnKŨG (USOWC 2009)

(e) Q54Q1 ȳͶoumlɯ3ɚƙ1G˞0mgɅ4ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution

to US Electricity SupplyrdquoĽġǮ (DOE 2008)US Offshore Wind Collaborative3US Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo0E71ʟĴ3ȳͶoumlɯ1Gěʍ3Ľɯ˘ʗ-GraquoǰƔ3A314ȲƧƛ˞-G

Ugrave 8-3 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ53

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ54 ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 165 167 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ͷļǘ ļ 73 50 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ɯĎȲ55 szligːǨ 2891 3066 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1241 (1725) 1378 (1915) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʰƾ ijŚͿĎȲ56 eurokW ($kW) 50 (70) 50 (70) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʰƾ ŃuumlͿĎȲ57

euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (80) 58 (80) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

$3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆWiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ51 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ52 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ53 Yacute1ampD1]bn4szlig 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆ ĎȲ54 3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙ4ntildeʛ1ʆGȳͶoumlɯ4ʟĴ3 LCOEccedilǿ14Ġ0 ĎȲ55 eumlɥɞ 2007ƀ 33ͼ2008ƀ 35ͼsup3ŚG (Wiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) ĎȲ56 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampş|b3ʰƾ4 2007ƀ 2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG ĎȲ57 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampɯouml|b3ʰƾ42007ƀ2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG

70

(f) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 8-38-5 4ș1G LCOE ccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3sup3ŚKʆG]bn3sup3Ś4HA 2007 ƀ

2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1GA3-2008ƀƄ3o-˘GmD7ǞȰ3˳˷ǥ4Aring 1AumlKđɔHamp

Ugrave 8-4 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 100 100 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash WACC ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

Ǵ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ȰlaquoʌɞĎȲ58 ͼ 389 389 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FXnĎȲ59 $US 139 139 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆChadbourne and Parke 2009 Harper et al 2007 Schwabe et al 2009

Ugrave 8-5 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

oumlźľEgraveȉĎȲ60 euroMWh ($MWh) 382 (531) 419 (582) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

źľEgraveȉ˯ǥĎȲ61 euroMWh ($MWh)

˫1 Ġ=HG

˫1 Ġ=HG ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FITǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml |bͿĎȲ62

euroMWh ($MWh) 144 (200) 151 (210) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ 10 10 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 6 6 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆHarper et al 2007 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ58 LJŚHampǕƃŵǕƃ3ʌɞ4$HH 35ͼ 6ͼ-Gɏ1ɫƧ (Harper et al 2007)ŵʌ4ĔTHORNEdž

HGamp˜Ĝśucircʌɞ4 389ͼ-G ĎȲ59 szlig3]bn4 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆGamp2007ƀA 2008ƀA 2008ƀǶ3ɐǯnKɥamp

(Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ60 2007ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3EgraveȉˬŚ1Gsup3ŚAWiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+˥amp ĎȲ61 aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3LJŚͳKouml3źľEgraveȉ3˩ʙ1ĠG ĎȲ62 PTCnjʙOacute4 13frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORN

71

823 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯTHORNoumlvgKɥ2007 ƀ 2008 ƀ3 LCOE K˩ʙamp2008 ƀ3ʟĴ LCOE2008

ƀ3ʟĴ3sup3ŚKszligAumlɥͿKđɔb2008 ƀ3đɔb3szligsup3ŚKAumlɥͿȣamp$3ʫȁ4sup23F-G Ĵecirc3ěTHORNoumlŃǘKě3đɔb3sup3ŚEʟĴ3sup3Ś9ŀccedilɱ1degTHORNđɔbʟĴ3 LCOE

3Ÿɮ93ěŃǘ3ƐKLJŚ-GD1ampʟĴ3 LCOE 4 3 MWh4 oMWhͿ-đɔb3 LCOEDFAfrac12x 8-2đɔͿ

x 8-2 EcirczrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup363

(b) BL0+dj ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4ſĹˍō0Ͷȯ3ơƣKĖG-G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ|b3

aRZn-4ſĹ 3066 Ǩ3szligːǨǴƒHGđɔb-4 2628 ǨͿʟĴ-4aRZn3aeligouml0G LCOEđɔbDFAʢ 8MWh11oMWhͿfrac120G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAʢ 72 kW100o kWͿfrac120)G

2008ƀ3ſĹƷ]bn4đɔb 1449kW2029okWͿ-G31ťʟĴ-4 1378kW19195okWͿ-GǑĐ]bnͶoumlɯˬOtilde3ǑĐ]bnaRZn^Pn3ƘUcirc]bnĠ=HGͿ4szliggt3Ʒ]bn1Ġ=HGsup3ŚHGƕ)ʟĴ-4Ʒ]bnfrac12

G1HLCOEđɔbDFAʢ 2MWh3oMWhͿfrac120G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3˺]bn4ˇŹǷ|amp2008ƀ4 100ͼͿ=ampđɔb-4

Ouml1DG˺KɥGampđɔbDFA0)G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯaRZn3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ75ͼͿ4đɔb3Oumleumlɲɞ55ͼͿDFA 200|`bPn0)G ʟĴ-4ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 2007 ƀE 2008 ƀ1ŀdivideampH4ǕĊȗ1DFƕǽ3ǷƷŞ

ĎȲ63 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

72

KŊ)ampamp-G (Schwabe et al 2009)H4=ampư0Egraveȉ3frac34Ŗ)ampreg3ʊʌdžƷAĝȓ3ơƣKƖEHGD1GʟĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY3ʌdžǕʘ3Ɵ1DGA3-3Ǖʘ1DF 2007ƀ1ʢ 6ͼ3eumlɲNjAEligHHȇƉƷeumlɲɞ3KŚG10)amp (Chadbourne and Parke 2007)ʟĴ3˺]bn0GʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 8MWh11oMWhͿ0G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAfrac120)Gʰƾ4ijŚG4Ńuuml-˘-

G3ampđɔb3ȣ-4ŃuumlǼacute-˘ampnjʙćǛ3LJŚOacuteampʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJ

Śʱͳ4 7MWh10oMWhͿđɔb3 13MWh18oMWhͿK4G1Į)ampraquoĽġ1DH5ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯɤȐ4ʰƾʚɡ]bn3˟ʏF1G˞˹Ͳ1ɠķAɷFĽ

ġHampmg4Ǩřszlig-Gamp3LJŚOacute4ƪ1˥Gƛ˞G =ampʰƾ4aRZn3ˠȕũ0G1Hfrac12G˯ƻAG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

HAʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJŚͳđɔbȣfrac120)G3į-GʟĴ3aR

Zn3ˠȕ4đɔbDFAņampͿ=ampʟĴ3ʰƾ4ǝˠaRZn14=DzucircIgrave

˯Ǵatilde-Gamp1ʵĥHGė˃ƟGʟĴ3ʰƾfrac120GʟĴ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFAʢ 6MWh8oMWhͿfrac120G

(f) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4Ƿ]bn˺]bnG4szliggt3ʰƾ1Ġ=HGƦŚHGamp

ʟĴ3ccedilǿ-4ecircmĀ0reg3]bn14ʡʭɥʿ1DGfrac12ĶPob (LVRT) ˞acuteG4ɑucircouml]bnʗGN`^wbǛ4ż4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɷDž˹

HG40

(g) uumljfrac14divideWocirceumlCcediloslash Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ]bn4đɔbDFA0)GHE3Ǖʘ1

41ͿȰlaquoʌɞ2ͿȰlaquo˹ʌƯƖE3eumlőǓƱdžĠ=HGʟĴ3DzucircȰlaquoʌɞ389Ϳ4đɔb30ͿDFA$3amp LCOE0)GE1Ƿ1DG 100˺K˟L-GampʟĴ3 LCOE ˹ʌƯƖ3eumlőǓƱdž1D)ȿͳHG40ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFAʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ0)G

824 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj3˩ʙ1DFʟĴ3ĔTHORNŃǘouml RECͿ3OacuteKͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘȣGyacuteYj4=ĔTHORNǕʘAͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘKĠ

1˩ʙș1ĔTHORNŃǘ3gtKĠauml˩ʙGǰƔ1auml7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘKĠ˩

ʙG3ŀccedilsup3Ś1DFͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘ1ťGĔTHORN3ɸťɱEgraveOacuteKǥE1amp x 8-34ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘĔTHORN3ŃǘKȣHE 23D1ʟĴ3 LCOE

KȒƭGKʆampA3-G2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3 LCOEʢ 41MWh57oMWhͿ4ĔTHORNɅouml REC3łͿ-JHGʢ 24MWh33oMWhͿ4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHGPTCUgraveČ˩ɩ3divideͿotildeĜ-˘0EʟĴ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 24ĔTHORN-ȟF3 3ccedil3 14ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHG

73

x 8-3 Ecirczs_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup364

825 aringmH7B

ʟĴ3mĀccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash1 MWhndash1 oMWhͿ-G3EʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4aRZnɯ1ƛ˞HGyacute˞acuteKɄamp31ăccedil0Xj`

yKĔTHORND7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOzȉGľĜͿEƖG10G34

PTCżǨDzucirc-)amp 2005Έ2009ƀ3ƀͶoumlˬOtildeş3ʯɱ˫EAǥE-GH41ƀŨTHORNş4 PCT]bnɑucirc10)ampǨ1˒ȿŪG (AWEA2009)ĎȲ65

83 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+

ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ƀƞ1ƼņGH4Ͷȯż1ˍō-]bnȣɱfrac12ĔTHORN

Ʌăccedil1F=ampľĜ1D)4Dzɲ0ǕʘPdlOzKeumlɥ-GE-GʟĴ1Gɠķ=

-3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn4HA-śǟHampʟĴeacute0GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯ

EHGʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bn4ˊ1đɔbDFAfrac12H4SrYaeligouml

ņǷ]bnʰƾfrac121DGͶoumlɯ1GǕƃ3ǕʘPdlOzȜ

Ɖ1˴ŚHamp-Ĵatilde3Ņ3szlig-401AͿ3ɯaRZnEumlHG10)amp

E-GĔTHORNǕʘ3PdlOz3ɸiexclucircȁ1DFͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ3yacuteYj4lte10

)G

Ugrave 8-6 EcirczIumlsectpsup366

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

58 (81)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

60 (83)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

ndash1 (ndash1) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ĎȲ64 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ65 x 8-1đɔ ĎȲ66 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

74

rOtildemiddot

AWEA (2010) ldquoUS Wind Energy Industry Breaks All Records Installs Nearly 10000 MW in 2009 Manufacturing

Investment Jobs Still Lagrdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) news release January 26 2010 at httpwwwaweaorgnewsroomreleases01-26- 10_AWEA_Q4_and_Year-End_Report_Releasehtml

AWEA (2009) ldquoAmerican Wind Energy Association Annual Wind Industry Report Year Ending 2008rdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) at httpwwwaweaorgpublicationsreportsAWEA-Annual-Wind-Report-2009pdf

Bolinger M (2010) ldquoRevealing the Hidden Value that the Federal Investment Tax Credit and Treasury Cash Grant Provide to Community Wind Projectsrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL-2909E January 2010 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreportslbnl-2909epdf

Capewind (2010) ldquoCape Wind Signs Agreement to Buy Siemens 36-MW Offshore Wind Turbinesrdquo Cape Wind (Capewind) news release March 31 2010 at httpwwwcapewindorgnews1086htm

Chadbourne and Parke (2009) ldquoTrends in Tax Equity for Renewable Energyrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke January 2009 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication810dde60-3c78-4a9a-9c5d- a5fae8014b4fPresentationPublicationAttachment51fc06c5-1407-48ac-9dff- a605de0f58e1pfn0109pdf

Chadbourne and Parke (2007) ldquoThe Tax Equity Marketrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke April 2007 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication572b04b4- 905e-48e1-8f6b-0f520c4f2615PresentationPublicationAttachment573bdc6c-ff85-4f99-b4d0- 25a845907bccpfn0407pdf

Cory K Schwabe P (2009) ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financing Input Variablesrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL TP-6A2-46671 October 2009 at httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

DOE (2010) ldquoGeneral Loan Guarantee Program Frequently Asked Questionsrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) accessed April 2010 at httpwwwlgprogramenergygovfaq2htm

DOE (2008) ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution to US Electricity Supplyrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2008 at httpwww20percentwindorg

EIA (2009) ldquoAnnual Energy Outlook 2010 Early Release with Projections to 2030rdquo US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration (EIA) website accessed February 2010 at httpwwweiadoegovoiafaeoexcelaeotab_16xls

102Federal Reserve (2010) ldquoHistorical Rates for Euro Areardquo Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System website accessed February 2010 at httpwwwfederalreservegovreleasesh10histdat00_euhtm

GE (2010) ldquo15 MW Wind Turbine Technical Specificationsrdquo GE Energy (GE) website accessed April 2010 at httpwwwgepowercomprod_servproductswind_turbinesen15mwspecshtm

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review amp Comparative Analysisrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports63434pdf

Justice S (2009) ldquoPrivate Financing of Renewable Energy ndash A Guide for Policymakers UNEP Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative Bloomberg New Energy Finance Chatham House December 2009 at httpwwwchathamhouseorgukfiles15542_1209_financeguidepdf

Schwabe P Cory K Newcomb J (2009) ldquoRenewable Energy Project Financing Impacts of the Financial Crisis and Federal Legislationrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory technical report NRELTP-6A2-44930 July 2009 at

75

httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti44930pdf

USOWC (2009) ldquoUS Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo US Offshore Wind Collaborative (USOWC) October 2009 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreports63434pdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2009) ldquo2008 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2009 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports2008-wind-technologiespdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2008) ldquoAnnual Report on US Wind Power Installation Cost and Performance Trends 2007rdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy May 2008 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs43025pdf

76

Uograve AĂsup1agraveUumlaacute

shyocircMQ+Q

BL0+para

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

aRZn3gPn Project title

aRZnĞregĴ3QOo

yMȣGamp AringΆoPk3đɔQOoyM13

aRZn3ʍ͵ Project type

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ʍ͵ A4ȳ

Ͷļǘ Number of wind turbines

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

Ͷʱǘ$EěĴ3ɡ˼

3ſĹɱQOoyMͿ

ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

Śȉaeligouml Rated power

Ͷ 1ļ3Śȉaeligouml ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

gɷƑ Rotor diameter

Ͷ3gɷƑ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

ĖͶʏ Swept area

gͶKĖGszligʏ m2-˘˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

tz Hub height

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ƚĸɏ3ſĹ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽraquotz

3ſĹͶƀɯouml4ɷDž

EcircGͿ tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ

Lond term average wind speed at hub height

tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

Ȝģɯouml Net electricity production

QOoyM3ƀſĹȜ

ģɯouml szligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

ƺʌouml Tax capability

iacute΄ɑiacute ćɜ3aRZn3ľĜ

4ʌiacuteUacuteʘKszligeumlɥ-GͿG4

ˣmiddotʇKƾ3ľĜ4ˣmiddotʇ

Ǝ˲ƀƄ3ʌdžKszligDzucirc1eumlɥ-

GͿ4_Ƹ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4

Ĵʌ΄ʌ3gt1ɥHGŵʌBĸ

Ǟʌ4ńͿ Currency

szlig]bnĔTHORNPdlOz

ʗ3 2007ǫƀ 2008ǫƀ3$HHdeg˘ɱ0ǡ $HH 2007ƀ 12DZ 3ǡ 2008ƀ12DZ 31ǡͿ3ȣ1ļ+1ˬŚ

ijŚƀ]bnćfrac14 Fixed annual costs unit

ijŚʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kW

Ńuumlƀ]bnćfrac14 Variable annual costs unit

ƀʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kWh

ccedil-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ͷ Wind turbine

ͶD7ɯ˙ʹ3Yacute˖Ʒ

]bn ggtzgĖ

oPznPKƿʆGPy

YN~jZb`blxj

i`blzX`blpdt

77

Qa[ɯȗgzoͶ

ɥŃĶĬraraquoļʅG4ʡʭDž

ʯ4Ġ=reg-ƲͿ Ͷ3 Wind turbine transportation

ͶK˛ŶľEaRZ

nɯ^Pn1$1ˬ

ʹ-GD1Gamp3]b

n

Ͷ3aRZn^Pn93Křpound

Gamp1ɥEHG΄n

jZ]bnD7Z3]bnK

Ġ Ͷ3ˬʹ Wind turbine installation

aRZnƈˬǴ3Ͷ

3ˬʹ]bn ƈˬ3Z3]bnKĠ

ũ˩ΆͶ3]bn Sub-total wind turbine cost

Ͷ 3ļsup23]bn3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ļʅ Foundations

QOoyM1ƛ˞0ļʅ

3ʱ]bn ]Zn$3regQOoyM

3ěͶKǓG31ƛ˞0ȒǓȅK

Ġ Ȓatildeʡʭ Internal grid

QOoyM3ŃƯ93

Džʯ1ƛ˞0QOoyM

atilde3ȥʡʭ

QOoyMatilde3szlig3ʳQO

oyM3ŃƯ=-D7ŃƯ

3ʳKĠͿŃƯ1ʡɏDF

ntilde1ʡʭʡŃĶĬGľĜ4$3Ń

ĶĬ=-3szlig3ʳKĠ1șiacuteƗɯ`blKuziacuteƗGamp1ˬʹ

HampiacuteƗ˙ʹͿ3]bnKĠƯDzʿ

D7Ͷ˛brvbarȐʿ1ǖB˿ġKcedilamp

FͶKǒAcirc1DFuumlD7Ocirc

țampFɥʭ˩OacuteKƵǍGamp3

ɴˡiacuteƗ`bl (SCADA)G4QOoyMɴˡ`bl3ˬʹKĠ

ʡʭʡ[jo]o3

Ɇƻ Grid connection grid code compliance

QOoyM3ʡʭʡ1

ƛ˞0ŃĶĬǠœ3oumlʡʭ

-ƛ˞HGȥʡʭ

QOoyMEʡʭ=-3ʳ

0[jo]oɆƻ3amp1ȨE

HGegrave3divideɱ˙ʹĠ=HGQO

oyMʡʭʡŃĶĬKĠ˜ǘ3

ŃƯKDzGľĜʡʭʡŃĶĬ

ʡʭ3ʳ3gtKĠ ʡʭŀƍ Grid reinforcement

˄Ƌ0ʡʭ-4QOoyM

3ʡ3ampʡʭ3reg3ccedil

3ĶʤKG1DF

ʡʭKŀƍGė˃ƟG

Ǡœ3ʡʭ3ŀƍ1ƛ˞0˙ʹ

ŀƍdivideɱiacuteƗ$3reg3macrdivideɱ˙ʹKĠ

Ϳ

ŃƯ Substations and transformer station

ʡʭʡŃĶĬˇiquestD7$H

=-3ĂKĠampQOoy

M3ʡʭatilde1Gszlig3

ŃƯ3]bn

ʡʭ93ʡĸɏ=-ǜĬD7ǜ

ĬKĠŃĶĬ4ĶKǤĶGȥ

ȗĬ-GL3Ͷ4aeligoumlKʡ

ʭĶ1ǤĶGŃĶĬKDzG ũ˩Άȥʡʭ Sub-total electrical netgrid

ȥʡʭ1G˫ 4 ɶ3ũ˩

˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ˴˯ Certification

ʡʭʡG1amp)QO

oyMK˴˯Gamp3]

bn

˴˯Hampˬ˩IJ3]bnD7QOo

yM3ś3ƈˬK3ˬ˩IJȣ

G]bnKĠ ɢĿ˺Ȇ Environmental survey

QOoyM3ɯȠ-

ƛ˞10GɢĿ˺Ȇ3ʱͳH

4ěĴ3ɢĿƐ˰EgraveǮ3acirciquest

ɱ0˞acute1˟G-G

ȩȃ3ė˃ƟɊɇograveʗͿ ͷ|3LJŚ Ǫˤ93ˡˢɱƐ ɣɣəD7ɣƩʡ93ƈˬD7 3Ɛ ɚŚ3ͻ˓˔3ɴˡ `oQyjV3Oslash

Pysup2ń3ɯ]bn

3ũ˩ Non-infrastructure development subtotal

˫3Pysup2ń3aR

Znɯ3˫ 2ɶ3ʱ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

78

ʰƾˬOtilde OampM facilities

ʰƾȐyacute3˖1ƛ˞0

D7ǟˬKǝamp1ƈˬG

]bn

Ͷ3ƈˬ14aRZn3ˀ

ɥƀǘ3ʰƾgzo3

ɏȏ]bnD7ņĺĦ3ordfnj]bn $3reg Miscellaneous

˫3aRZnɯ]bn

1Ġ=H0$3regegrave3

]bn

3ĵĸƯDzʿ93˚Ugrave

ntilde3eumlőǓƱ Interest payment before operation

aRZnŐntilde1ǓƱ

ƛ˞10Geumlő3ʱͳ ż4ƈˬȠ3OumlD7Ͷ3Ͱ

ǓƱ3amp33Ńǘ4 1Έ2ƀatilde3yacuteŃǘ-G3Xj`y

mŐHGɥeacuteƀƄ1

4ntilde-ǓƱ]bnG reg3aRZnɯ]b

n3ũ˩ Sub-total other project development costs

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫frac14ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0

ľĜʱͳ-˘

aRZnƷ]bn3

ʱͳ Total project investment costs

˫ɯɶũ˩3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

q-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǑĐbZjEgraveͳK

Ϳ Decommisioning excl scrap value

ļʅKĠQOoyMK

ĵĸEǑĐG31˞G]

bn

QOoyMD7egrave3Py

ZʗͿ3˥iquestǑĐə

$3regegrave3ƛ˞0Ǖƃ˯ǥǮ3Acircƭ]b

n ĵĸ3ˇɓɛƩ93ĮƘ Returning the land to the natural state

ĵĸ3ɠɛĮƘ3amp3]bn aRZnřpoundamp1ɯɣ

bZjEgraveͳ Scrap value

ǑĐǨ3bZjǺǛ3łČ

EgraveOacute ʳʗaumleumlɥG4bZj

łČ-Gė˃Ɵ3GQOoyM

3ǺǛ ȜģǑĐ]bn Net decommissioning costs

˫ɶ3ʱͳ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

BL0+igraveeacute Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǨszligːǨmO

nKͿ Operational time full load hours excluding derate

szligːǨ4QOoyM

3ſĹƀɯoumlK$3

Śȉaeligouml-ampOacute-G

H4szligːǨ3Ĝ˩-F˩ɩɱ

D7˩ɩń3ʰƾʚɡ3amp3OcircțǨK

ĠszligːǨŅŚamp^P

n1GQOoyM3ɯouml

AŀdivideG szligːǨ3mOn Derate of full load hours

QOoyMʎOslash

0Ǩ ɼȧʗ1DGOcircț3amp3ɯouml

3ǏŊKĠ ȜģǨȜģszligːǨ

Net operational timefull load hours

ǨszligːǨEmO

nKƊampǨ ȜģǨ3Ĝ˩KĠG0J(m

OnKĠGͿ

ˀɥƀǘ Economic life

ƦŚHGaRZn3ˀɥ

ƀǘ3ǴaRZn]

bn3ʱͳKĮĔ0H50

E0Ϳ

AringaRZnKʮʯɥG-

ƦŚHampˀɥƀǘsup21ăccedilʎOslash-

GɛƩ1)ampAaRZn

3ȟœˀɥƀǘ4egraveĠ0 ]bn˩ʙ3amp3˩ɩť

Ǵ Time horizon for cost

LCOE˩ʙ3ť0GǴ _OacuteKTHORNouml0ľĜ4myTn

ˬŚ1DFˀɥƀǘ1ˬŚG

79

calculations

aringm Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ǵ Loan duration

ȽǴ3Ĝ˩ ͰD7eumlőǓƱKĠ

― źľeuml Loan - market interest rate

euml3Oacute43ư1D)

ŃJG OgraveTHORN3otildeĜ-˘]bn

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml3ƖEHG Oumleumlɲɞ Return on debt

Ǵ1ȢƀƖEHG

euml ȢƀƖEHGeuml

ƛ˞HGǷeumlɲɞź

ľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivideʙ

KͿ Required return on equity excl market volatility risk adder

QOoyM3ǷƷŞ

ȨGeumlɲɞ Ƿ1Geumlɲ3otildeĜ

źľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivide

ʙ Market volatility risk adder

ʕyenɱźľ1đdivideǷeumlɲɞ

KGdividebZKƵǍG

KɶɱampA3

źľ1GcurrenƦń3ŃuumlbZKʾƬ

Gamp1divideʙGotildeĜ

ƛ˞HGƷǷ3Ȝ

ģeumlɲɞ Net required return on investment equity

ɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZ

nƷŞ93ǷeumlɲɞǷƷ

ŞȨGźľŃuumlƟ3b

ZKĠͿ

Ƿeumlɲɞźľ3ŃuumlƟKʾƬG

ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKƵǍGamp mZ-ɥė ˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ƿ3otildeĜĸUcircǷ3ƯDz

ȖKͿ Equity share excl local equity ownership

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp1ƻaeligGǷ3otilde

Ĝ

ͶǓƾ˙ʹPyʚɡ˺

ʗ3]bnKamp1ƷGǷ3

ʱͳ

Ƿ3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Total equity share

ĸUcirc3Ƿ3ƯDzȖ0E71ʱ

Ʒ]bn ˺]bnK

amp1ƻaeligGǷ3otildeĜ3

Ĝ˩

ĸUcircD7ĸUcircsup2ń3ƷŞNjAEligamp

Ƿ3ʱͳ

Ouml3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Debt share

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp3Ouml3otildeĜ THORNoumlGǷ3otildeĜ1ļ+˩ʙOacute

aRZn3ʱ]bn 100EǷ3otildeĜKƊampOacuteͿ

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate- municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠǘOacute

4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ȝģʌɞ Net tax rate

ǕƃĸǞŵǕƃ3Ȱlaquoʌ

ɞ3Ĝ˩ -˘ʆǕƃźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

80

shy MQ+Q

oacute-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

˛ȐʿNjAEligGʰƾʚ

ɡ]bn Manufacturer-provided maintenance

eacuteƀƄG4$3Ɣ1divide]

bn0-˛ȐʿNjAEligG

ʰƾʚɡ]bn

3]bn4żQOoyM3ˬʹ

]bn1Ġ=HGampeacuteǴ4e1

0G4-G

atildebgjy1DG˩ɩɱ

ʰƾʚɡ]bn Scheduled maintenance by internal staff

aRZnƯDzʿ3bgjy

1DGŚǴɱ0QOoyM

3ʰƾʚɡ]bn

bgjy1DGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

ń^wbŋʢ External service contracts

reg3˻Ȑʿ1DGŚǴɱ0Q

OoyM3ʰƾʚɡ]b

n

˻brvbarȐʿDGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

]bn Operation costs

QOoyM3ɥ1ƛ˞

0ƀ]bn SCADA KĠQOoyM3ƴ˗ɱɥ3amp3]bn-ʚɡ]bn-40

H14ecirc˷ǥͿǘOacuteȥcurren

ɂ3]bnKĠ ɏȏ Inspections

Ͷɏȏ3amp˻ȐʿK

ˇʇ-A˫3^wb˻

Ȑʿ-A0ľĜͿ

gzo3Ľġ2~4ƀȢͿĦ3ƴ˗ɏȏͶ 1 ļampF 2 ƀȢ1 1 ǡͿKĠɏȏ3ǨȂ4kW |b

-ˬŚ ˩ɩń3Icircɡ Unscheduled repairs

˩ɩń3Icircɡʰƾʚɡ ˙ʹ3ǖŇȥɛȯ$3reg3ńį1DG

ʰƾijŚͿũ˩ OampM costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ OampM costs variable subtotal

˫3Ńuumlʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝͳ-˘ ʚɡ Administration

QOoyM3ʚɡ

D7ɴɽ3]bn ʬƈəˇuumlD7ɗǛͿʗKĠ

Igrave Insurance

QOoyM$33

bZD7$3Ɛ1OtildeG

amp1ǓƱƀIgraveǛ

uumlɤIgraveǏŝUgraveuacuteɍ˚UgraveD7ɢĿ

)ampQOoyM1ɷDžEcirc

Gegrave3Igrave

ʡʭǛ Grid charges

ʡʭ93ʡ0E71ɥKǓ

ǎG31ƛ˞HGƀǛ

_4HKş|b3]bn

G4SrY]bnTHORNouml

G-G ʡʭ3]bnijŚͿ Grid costs fixed

˫3ʡʭǛ

ʡʭ3]bnŃuumlŃuumlͿ Grid costs variable

˫3ʬ˺ʛ]bn

^Pn3 Site lease

QOoyMKˬʹampĵ

ĸ3ƯDzʿ1ǓƱʱͳ Ͷ 1 ļ1macrǓƱľĜAʱͳ-ǓƱľĜAʱ]bn-THORNouml

G ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

aRZnşƀ

kWͿ1ļ+aRZnǓƱƀʌͳ

ͼ|b3ʌ4˫3Z`n-ƀ

șŃuuml30ŃǘTHORNoumlG

1ȲƧ-4ş|b3ʌKʆ

$3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG ȸouml Electricity consumption

ouml3ˇŹȸ ʡʭ3ĝǴD7ɯƯ3uumlʗ3amp

_4HEKş|bG4

SrY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ɢĿɂŚ˰Egraveʗ Environmental measurements evaluations etc

QOoyM3˴ė0E7

1KʰƾG31ƛ˞0ƀ

ɢĿɂŚ˰Egrave

_4HEKş|bG4Sr

Y]bnTHORNoumlG-

G

81

reg3ƀ]bnijŚͿũ

˩ Other annual costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚɢĿɂŚǛ

ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ Other annual costs variable subtotal

˫3oumlȸ]bn

ƀ]bnijŚͿ Annual costs fixed

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ƀ]bnŃuumlͿ Annual costs variable

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘

Ts_-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ƀźľđdivide]bn Annal market participation fee

ʕyenɱoumlźľ1đdivideGamp

3ƀ]bn źľɥʿʡʭɥʿ1ǓƱ

ʬ˺Ǚ]bn Balancing costs

ͶoumlɯKěǨ1oumlʡ

ʭ1DžʯGamp3]bnʱͳ

aeligoumlcurrenɂ1Gś3ŀccedil]

bn

kW]bn4ȜƉ0ʬ˺ǙźľKG43]bnouml3źľ

Egraveȉ1Ġ=HGampccedilG3İ

0ľĜAG_4HE3]bn

Kş|b3]bnG4S

rY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ŋʢ]bnĕƊǛʗͿ Contract costs (transaction fees etc)

ŋʢ3ʰƾ1ƛ˞0ƀǓƱͳ kWh-˘ĕƊǛ

reg3]bn3ʱͳ Subtotal other costs

źľđdivide]bnʬ˺Ǚ]b

nŋʢ]bn3Ĝ˩

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKşǦ1GĽ

Ō kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƟʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źľoumlEgraveȉ Market price electricity

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

ƀſĹźľoumlEgraveȉ kWh

źľ˯ǮEgraveȉ Market price certificates

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ3

ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kWhǕʘ1DFG4źľ|b-ˬŚHGľĜGǘOacute4ecirc

THORNoumlG FITĔTHORN Feed-in tariff revenue

FIT1DGĔTHORN ż4aR

Zn]bn3ǓƱ3amp3ŀ

ccedilǓƱŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞK

ʄIgraveG31Auml ouml3źľEgrave

ȉKĠľĜAG

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐKŐampƀƄ1

ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlHG

reg3ĔTHORN3ʱͳ Subtotal other revenues

˫3reg3ĔTHORN3Ĝ˩

Ccedil ― shyocircocirc

shyocirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ʌƊntildedž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as a before-tax credit

ʌƊntilde

3ʌdž1ťGntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊntilde

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGʌ|b3ntildeƱ˚

ugrave3otildeĜHĝ otildeĜaRZ

n3ʱͳoͿG4ˬOtildeşampF

3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ

82

|b3PdlOz4aRZn1

DGʌƊntilde1ɥHGƕ)aR

Zn1ťEgraveOacuteaRZn3eacute

ƀ3˹ʌͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3

ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜaRZnG

G4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3

ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ

4_Ƹ-Gʌdž4Ĵ

ʌ13gtɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ

|-40Ϳ ʌƊƔdž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave AringΆUgraveČͿ Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as an after-tax deduction (eg depreciation)

ʌƊƔ

3ʌdž1ļ+ntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊƔ

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGYacute˖ʌdžH

ĝ otildeĜaRZn3ʱͳoͿ

G4ˬOtildeşampF3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ|b3Pdl

Oz4aRZn1DGʌƊƔ1ɥ

HG3ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜa

RZnGG4aRZn

ƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-G

ˣmiddotʇKƾ4_Ƹ-G

ʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥHGƕ

)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront cash investment subsidy

aRZnszligiquest1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ aRZnƷ]bnʱͳ1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml-3Ƚė˃ ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKǁGamp mZ-ɥė˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

shyl Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

kW-ʆHGƀʌͳ ȢƀǓƱD7ƀșŃuumlGş

|b3ʌͳ FITĔTHORNAringΆɯouml|b3PdlOzͿ Feed-in tariff revenue (eg production based incentives)

FIT G4ɯouml|b3PdlOz1DGĔTHORN

ż4aRZn3]bnK

31˞ȨHGŀccedilǓƱ1

ŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞKdivideampOacute

ouml3źľEgraveȉKdivideGľĜA

G

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐɱɥKŐampƀƄ

1ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǨCcedilœǛiacuteƄKɥ

GĴoPkʗͿ4ƀ3ǘOacuteAring

$HƀK Ś0

AͿKTHORNoumlG FITǕʘǴ Feed-in tariff policy period

FIT G4ɯ˚ugraveǓƱJHGʱǨ

aRZn1ƦŚHGʪȽɱƕŎǴ

K0ʜı3Ǵɮ0H5 FIT3ǓƱ|Aɮ0)Gė˃Ɵ

83

GFIT ǕʘǴ3Ĝ˩OacuteK1THORNoumlG

ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž Production-based before-tax credits

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b30J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊntilde

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊntilde|

b-aRZn1ɥH

G

aRZn3ʌǓƱntilde1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGɯouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿƕ)aRZn1ťEgraveOacuteņaRZneacuteƀ3˹ʌ

ͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteK

ĖGćɜaRZnGG

4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDz

ucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gt

ɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40

Ϳ ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž3ǕʘǴ Production-based before-tax credit policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHGǴ

3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɯ|b3ʌƊƔdž Production-based after- tax deductions

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b0J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊƔ

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊƔ|

b-aRZn1ɥHG

aRZn3ʌǓƱƔ1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKĖGćɜaRZnGG4

aRZnƯDzʿĝƀƄ3ʌdžKDzucirc

1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥ

HGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ɣɤļɵ3džʌƊƔͿ

ǕʘǴ Production-based after- tax deductions policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHG

Ǵ3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power bonus

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKEumlGamp

3ĽŌ kWh

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƄʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWh

źľEgraveȉ˯Ǯ Market price certificates

źľG4Ǖƃ3Ǖʘ1D)

ˬŚHampQOoyM

3aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ

3ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kW_4ɮ0Gźľ-0J(ěʍ3źľEgraveȉ-Ϳłamp3˯

Ǯ3ȼĜdivideſĹźľEgraveȉKTHORNoumlG

divideUgraveČ Accelerated Depreciation

OtildeĦ3ͳK˺middot˩D

7ʌťʘUgraveČG˩ɩ ěƀƄ3UgraveČͳ4ɤ3ˀɥƀǘ3eacuteǴD

FBBƀ|b-eacuteǴƷʱͳ

3ͼˬŚG UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

3m-4_aRZn3

EgraveOacuteKUgraveČGƀƄ$3UgraveČɞKŚʻ

GșƀƄsup2ȢƀȟͳKUgraveČGǞȰK

ɥGĴ-4_UgraveČ˩ɩEgrave

ͳKdegɡȖ˖Auml1D)˟ʏG

dj

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

yacuteYj Financial gap

aRZn3˺1ƛ˞

HGyacuteYj ʱ]bn˺]bnͿEƛ˞

HGǷeumlɲɞ93Ʒ1ƛ˞0ĔTHORN

PdlOzKƊampOacute ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave Levelized electricity generation cost

QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘ

1QOoyM-ɣɤH

amp kWh3ɠķ3ǡſĹ]bn

szlig3]bnKĠƷaumlƷ

ʰƾͿĔTHORNPdlOz˺]

bnĹʗĀĎEgrave4otildeƊɞͶ3ˀɥƀ

ǘKɥ˩ʙ

• 表紙13
• 要旨13
• 目次13
• 第1章 7ヶ国の風力発電の財務コスト13
• 第2章 デンマーク13
• 第3章 ドイツ13
• 第4章 オランダ13
• 第5章 スペイン13
• 第6章 スウェーデン13
• 第7章 スイス13
• 第8章 米国13
• 付録A 変数および用語解説13

1

Aring 1Auml 7Ozuumljfrac14dividearingm-1

11

2009 ƀȚŵĜ (EU) 4Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşKǝamp1 10163 MW divideʟĴ-4 9994 MW Kdivideamp (EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)3 2009ƀ1GˬOtildeş3ŀdivide1DFͶoumlɯ4 EU-4ǰņ3ʟĴ-4ʖ 2frac143ǝamp0Ʌ0)G(EWEA 2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2010)ɪɱ1AsectĀɎʥǃaeligethȿĀʂɗǛ3ŘszligIgraveBŘŚAEligʬ3ĪͲ)ampǘ3ɡɦ1DFͶoumlɯ3˞40)G szligɪ-ͶoumlɯɯKŮ-Ͷoumlɯ3ʱ]bnCcedilɓŝ10)Gė˃

ƟAGͶoumlɯ3ƷŞ4ͶoumlɯƯ3PygP]bn1aRZn3ɯ˩ɩ1ĕF

)ampǨɏEȣɱʄ0ʀ˾Kƾ)GH4ͶoumlɯɯaRZn3ˬOtilde]bnſĹͶKǣ

Ƞ-ʀG-GE-F=ampͶoumlɯ3Ńuumlˊ1Ū0ɗǛ]bnEsectĀɎ

ʥAǃaelig0E-G3D0ijDz3ɚƙG1AͶoumlɯ3]bn463Ĵ3

-AaRZn1=ampěĴņɮ0)FǷʃʐ-43ɏ1ɒɏKƎG

12 frac34frac12sup2

Ƿʃʐ-4ĴSrYȗͶoumlśǟąŚʖ 26ccedilʉmiddot (IEA Wind Task26)Ͷoumlɯ3]bn131ļ+ěĴ3bʃʐKɥ7 Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3ɸ3ĎįKDŽGđdivideĴ4mZoPkUhbPbQRmbPbʟĴ-G Ͷoumlɯ]bn3˟ʏF-4Ʒ]bnʰƾ˺]bnƀɯoumlɯoumlͿ

)ampǘŅ3Ȓƭ˞ʥK˰EgraveHE3]bn3ȵHaRZnǴszligiquest-ŃĀGKDŽGƛ

˞G3aRZn-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnK˷ǥȣGamp3˞0ɂŚćfrac14ĹʗĀɯ

ĎEgrave (LCOE) Kȏ˪ampLCOE 4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3PygP]bn3Ĝ˩OacuteKɠķ1otildeƊƀɯouml1ļ+ĹʗĀampOacute-GLCOE4ɮ0Gˤɏ1ʑ)ampěʍ3ǞȰBưȰKɥ˩ʙG-GǷĽġ-4HE3ˡɏD7Ni3(ș`pU˩ɩȰƄyacuteX

j`yccedilǿȰ3 2KɥG ǷĽġ1Gccedilǿ3ņccedilȤƷŞ3ˡɏEěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnK˰EgraveampA3-

GDFacirciquestɱ1˧5ǷĽġǮ3 LCOE ccedilǿʫȁ4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴatildeƷŞěɥampmǞȰKɥěˇ3aRZn3K˺GbrvbarAring13Ĵecirc3yacute]bnK˘ampA3-GɫƧ

4Ƿʃʐ1Gyacute]bn3ȣ4Ͷoumlɯ3ʇmiddotɱɥ0J(3SrY3eumlɥ1

DFʇmiddotƺG]bnͿK˰EgraveampA3-40-G Ͷoumlɯ3yacute]bn3˩ʙ-4ͶoumlɯaRZn1Gˬʹ˺1ƛ˞HGegrave

3Ǔaelig1GccedilǿʫȁK˘1G3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʣ]bn3˰Egrave1divideěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ

aRZn3ƯDzʿeumlɥ-GĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3PdlOzK˷ǥ˽Ĵ-ɣ G]bn˞ʥ3

KǥE1G ǷĽġǮ-4= LCOE KȒƭG]bn˞ʥKʞć1˷ǥș1ǷaRZn3-ɯHampb

jo`nm1˷ǥGěđdivideĴENjAEligHampmg1ļ+đɔbKŚʻ˽Ĵ1aacute

Gȣ3PnKǥE1GěĴ3ĎEgrave˞ʥKđɔbȣͶoumlɯ3 LCOE 3ŸɮKɣ GĎįKǥE1Gș3dZ`-4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEdegǯɱǞȰKʞć1˷ǥͶouml

ɯ3ĹʗĀĎEgraveK˩ʙGș1đɔb-Śʻamp]bn˞ʥ1ļ+LCOELJŚOacute3K˷ǥɥGǞȰ31D) LCOE ŃJ)GKś˯GǰƔ3ʒ-ěđdivideĴ3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3]bn˞ʥK=˷ǥGsup2ǷĽġǮ3ȑ˞-G

2

13 uumljfrac14divideAElignp[

131 -1UacuteIgrave

Ͷoumlɯ3]bn˞ʥ4ǷƷ]bnʰƾD7˺]bn-GHEě

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Ugrave 1-1 1ʆD1Ʒʱͳ3ʢ 75Ͷ3]bn-FȟF4˘1=ampD1ʡʭʡļʅˬʹ0E71ƈˬ1G]bn-GHE3]bn4oPkmZbPˏĴ33m

g1ļ+GǑĐ]bn4aRZnŐǨ1ʄIgrave3]bnKƎeacute3ǷƷ1ĠG

KʻyacutemacrGĴAG

Ugrave 1-1 uumljfrac14divideBL0+ccedilyenccedil-1UacuteIgrave

ʱ]bn1ĈGotildeĜͿ reg3]bn1żĈGotildeĜͿ ͶŶľɀͿ

ʡʭʡ ļʅ

ȥˬOtilde ĵĸ

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ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

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Gsup3Ś˟ʏFK˖ŅͶoumlɯaRZn-4ƀ3ɗǛ˞-Fƕ)

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71macrGOumlD7Ƿ3Ȓƭ˞ʥAĴ1D)˒ɮ0G=amp$H1ťǴƒ-Geumlɲ1

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Gyacute]bnʱͳ1ƐG x 1-14Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3˟ʏF1Ġampěʍ3]bn˞ʥƷ]bnƀʰƾyacuteŃǘʗͿ

KʆampA3-GͶoumlɯaRZn3ǰʨɱɣɤə4ouml-GampLCOEKƀɯouml-ĹʗĀGƛ˞Gɯouml4Ͷ3əɡɱɚƙD7ɚŚ3aRZn^Pn3ͶɅ3ɚƙ1ŷęHG

132 s_N3N9A

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1DGĔTHORN1divideěʍ3PdlOzKAuml)Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKʄś1ĮĔ-GD1GH

E3PdlOz14ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ(FIT)ɣɤ1Ɯ ampʌͳdžaumlɣė˃SrY˯ǮG4reg3VqcG

3

x 1-1 uumljfrac14divide-1 ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

133 icirc

Ͷoumlɯ1Gɶ3Ņ=žĀHEHE4ĔTHORNB]bn3˰Egrave1Ġ0

HE4ɯƴ˗3oacuteșɱƐ1GńƟG4ʇmiddotɱɥ-Gˊ1aumlɣė˃SrY3ƴ˗4

ƕǽĺɅ3ƴ˗1ȣńƟ3Ɛż1Ū0IEA3 ldquoRenewable Energy Costs and Benefits for Society (RECaBS)rdquo aRZn-4ǥƟ3ǞȰKɥƕǽĺɅaumlɣė˃SrYɅKȣɯ3]bnEacuteɲKLJŚG (RECaBs 2007)ReCABS3ǞȰ˼1DH53ccedilǿ14ș3 53ńƟĠ=HG

ȥNtildeŃuumlɁŜucircȁWbɚ1 CO2D7 CH4Ϳ reg3ņȥȩȃɅSOxNOxD7ʠőͿ ʡʭʡoumlPy93divide]bn oumlʬ˺ǙͶ3şZajnˮȲ 41DGȿͳʗͿ

ɗǛAEligʬ3ŘszligIgraveɗǛTHORN3ĴatildeɅ-3degɥ HE3ńƟ1divideͶoumlɯ4ɗǛ3ȸB$H1sup1ɗǛEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ŷęH0Ͷoumlɯƴ˗

93ƷbZ4ĀʂɗǛ1DGɯƴ˗3bZyMPɮ0GHEszlig3ɚƙ1DFͶoumlɯ

ƴ˗reg3ɯƴ˗3EgraveOacuteNjȊ1G˞0ɚƙɣ GǷʃʐ4$3ȣ˰EgraveK˱gtampA3-

40

134 LCOEGKaacute

UhSrYʃʐdg (ECN) AcircƭampXj`ym4ǷaRZn1G

ˮȲ 4 şZajn (capacity credit) ʡʭŘŚƄ1ƤƐK0ʜı-Ͷoumlɯ1D)ƕǽĺɅHʹnj

EHGKʆȣɞAring5 şZajn 303ľĜǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ 1 GW1ťƕǽĺɅK 03GWȿEG-GşZajn1G˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

4

LCOEyacuteYj (FG) 3˟ʏF3ļɵ0)G3 ECNm4otildeƊXj`ym-Ǝeacute4Uh1Gaumlɣė˃SrY3˚ugrave3ɯAEligʬĽŌK˩ʙGamp1AcircƭHampA3

-Gɠķ ECN43mKɥUhǕƃ1ěʍaumlɣė˃SrYƸ˂3ɣɤ]bnK3ʋƄ1ugrave˧GIEAWind Task26KɯŮ-đdivide˽Ĵ3]bnȒK˟ʏAGamp3mKIcircȜƼņͶoumlɯ3]bnKȄ˳ʧ1˩ʙ-Gkamp3mKȒƭ

G34ɯƯ^PcǨszligːǨˀɥƀǘƷ]bnʰƾaRZn3˺

3ɚƙ)ampmĀ3amp3vg0E71Ɓʜ0vg-GěĴD7==0ˠ

iacuteiquestiacute13mKɥ-$3ȗ˃ŅɥƟǔīHGAring5Xj`y

mKǔ˨ͶoumlɯaRZn3ěˠiacuteiquestiacute1ƕ==0ƴ˗ɱyacuteɱvg1ɥ-

GD1amp3D0Ȅ0m4Ʒ]bnʱͳ3˩ʙ3gt0Eěʍ3ɥ3ɚƙByacuteưȠ

0E71ĴQOoyM3PdlOzK˷ǥG-˞-G

135 GK|yenfrac12-N3B

Xj`ybjo`nKɥͶoumlɯ3]bnK˳ʧ1˩ʙG$3szligvgKUograve A1ʆ3bjo`nm4 6 3Z`n-ȒƭHǰeacute3 3 3Z`n4ɚŚ3Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3˩ʙ1ƛ˞0˳ʧƥĽKNjAEligGamp3A3-G ǰeacute3Z`n4ƀșŃuuml3013ŃǘKŚGA3-GH14aRZn3ɚƙƷ]b

nʱͳǑĐ]bnʱͳĎȲ2szligːǨ1ɔEampǨ]bn˩ʙ3˩ɩťǴĠ=HGƷ]b

nǑĐ]bn4ěʍ3Ȓƭ˞ʥ3ʱͳ˘-GH4ś3]bn3Ÿɮ3ŅĴȣ3

amp3ƥĽKNjAEligHG=amp3Z`n1DFPyŃuuml]bnŀK˷ǥGampͿOumleuml

ɲɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞ0E71OumlǷȣɞaRZn1macrGyacutebZKēǧGampͿ)

ampěʍ3yacuteŃǘKŚG-GE13Xj`ym4ĴBŵ3ȰlaquoʌKʾƬampA

3-G ƀșŃuuml13Z`n14ʰƾĸdegʡʭ]bn)ampƀijŚŃuuml-ȒƭHG

ěʍɶĠ=HFHEK˳ccedil͵ěĴ-ȣ-GD1G=amp-ȥǛBʧ

ȪŚ˞įŋʢ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnʗͿKŚʻG ʖ 33Z`nǕʘ13-4ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT)ʌͳdž$3reg3PdlOzKȏ˪G

3m3U`ȿʌ3EacuteɲKaRZn3Xj`y1ŚampFɑiacuteĎȲ31

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13D7LCOEXj`y13Z`n-˖

136 LCOE FGYacuteEgrave

LCOE FG4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEXj`yK˩ʙampʫȁ-GampĞɶ3ʌƊƔǷeumlɲɞKLCOE FG3otildeƊɞɥGraquo LCOE FG14ě3˩ʙ1ɮ0GXj`y3ȵHKĠGH1sup21ȑ˷G ż3ľĜLCOE3Ľġ14ƷǓaeligƀ]bnȿEgraveUgraveČD7ƸampotildeƊɞAumlJHGƕ)

3Ȃʩgtatilde1G LCOE 3˩ʙOacute4ƷǓaelig3ƾccedilotildeĜszligǴ3otildeƊʌƊƔXj`yʱͳKeȜģɠķEgraveOacute (NPV) G31ƛ˞0ɣɤCcedilœeumlɲŚʻHGLCOE3˩ʙ-4ɯG4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɚecirc1ɥHGPdlOzE3ĔTHORN3Xj`yKʾƬ0

ECN3 LCOE˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

ĎȲ2 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4ǑĐ]bnKaRZnƈʝǴ1ʄIgraveKĴʻyacutemacrGľĜ3gt3]b

nKĠamp ĎȲ3 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4szlig3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKɑiacute13sup3Śamp=Feumlɥė˃0szlig3ȿʌ3ơƣKřszlig1ĖEH

GD0Xj`yăccedil1œķG-G

5

H41ɠķ FG3˩ʙ-4Ͷoumlɯ1ijDz3ɯɱPdlOz3Xj`yfynYacute˖Ʒʌļɵ3ƷugraveƭʗͿKʾƬG3Śʻ1ļ+brvbarś FG1D)ěĴ3 LCOEɯ0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ɱPdlOz1DFśɠHampeumlɲ3K˘G

ECNm3 FG˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

˫3D1ʌƊƔ3ƀXj`y14ouml3łĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3˚ugraveƱƮD7P

dlOzƀʰƾȽeumlƢǓƱ0E71yacuteľ3ȿEgraveUgraveČeumlődž3ʌƊƔͳ

E3Xj`yĠ=HG x 1-24LCOEƖEHampĔTHORNoumlźľĔTHORNFITAEligʬĽŌʗͿPdlOzD7yacuteYj

3EcircKʆampA3-G3IJ1ʆD1FGOacuteȜ3ľĜ4aRZnɯʿ3 LCOEK31ƛ˞0ĔTHORNƖEH0)ampƧģ-F3ľĜ4 LCOE KG3ăccedil0ĔTHORNƖEHampKʆĨG

x 1minus2 aringmH7Bmacrs_N3N9AampgtKQ-1Agravedeg

ʌƊƔ3Xj`yt

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ ndash

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

FG =

1 ndash ʌɞ times ƀʰƾ t ndash ʌɞ times euml t + ʌyacute3ȿEgraveUgraveČ t

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ +

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

LCOE =

6

14 rkzoumlRuumljfrac14divide-1

șʛ-4 Ĵ3aRZn3ǎugraveKGĴatildeƷŞ1)3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKđdivideamp 7Ĵ3Ĵecirc1ʆH14 ECN3mǞȰ˼KɥG˞0Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3ŃǘKŅĴ-ȣG1DFěĴ3ccedilFͶoumlɯaRZn3|bP]bnǥʄ10Geumlɥ

ė˃0mgEHGampȳͶoumlɯ3]bn4˳ʆ0ĽġHamp]bnmg3

Ūǘ3^KĠG

15 vQ5otildeordm

3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnƟ˃0E71yacutemgszligiquest3ȜʄDzucircƟKaeligǽGF˯ǥD

ampmgfb4ŅʍŅȓ-FĽġHampmg34ĴD7mgfb1DFɮ0)G

Aring5ĽġHamp]bn3mg42008 ƀ3ͳ-˘ampɠķEgraveȉK˘G3ŚEgraveȉǥʄ-0brvbarAringAG=ampsup21ǀGvgA2008 ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlaRZnK˘amp3A3-Gś14 2008ƀntilde1ɯȲHǓƱJHampbrvbarAringKĠGė˃ƟGmgEHGampampɉķɱ0ɿɹKIcircȜG-0)ampE1 IEA Task264ěĴ3deg˘ɱ013aRZnK˘KƧIJampA3-GͶoumlɯ3ś3]bn4^PnaRZn1D)ɮ0G

ƕ)sup23mg4ěĴ3szligˊɱɛȯ˷ǥ3amp3gt1ʆampA3-3ɏ1ɫƧ-G

16 tzGKLCOErmicroQ1

Ͷoumlɯ3Ĵecirc3]bnļǷampaRZn-4đɔb13Ĥ8ͿȣHG

3đɔb4ěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3deg˘ɱ0Ȓƭ˞ʥK˘A3-ƴ˗ɱvgaRZn3ɚƙƟ

˃Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bnʰƾʗͿyacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞ

ǴĴ3ʌɞʗͿ3ǞĠ=HGđɔb-4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘKńG=ampͶoumlɯ

KǓǎGĕFʩgt4Ĵ1D)ɮ0GampͶoumlɯǕʘBPdlOzAĠ0ƕ)đɔ

b-4 LCOE3˩ʙʫȁ3gtK˘ʆG Ĵecirc3ƴ˗ɱvgKUgrave 1-21ʆĎȲ4đɔb-43ěvgKszlig3Ĵ1Ga

RZn3ˬOtildeş3divideſĹ˩ʙGđɔb3ƴ˗ɱvg3OacuteA3˘1ʆF

2008 ƀ3ˬOtildeşȣɱņ)ampbQRmʟĴ$HH 98MW85MWͿ-ƄĜņ0)G7 Ĵ- 2008 ƀ1śǟHampdeg˘ɱ0aRZnKŅŪ0FAēǧ-GD1đɔb3divide14Ĵatilde3ʱSrYş-40aRZn3ˬOtildeşKɥGđɔb3aRZ

nȒʝ14==0Ƹ˂G$3ƸĴecirc3 LCOE G4 FG ˩ʙ1ƐG40ɏKƿǐG34˞-GđɔbNjAEligG342008 ƀ3Ĵecirc3ʫȁKȣGamp3ˊɱ0ɏ10 Ugrave 1-3 4Ĵecirc3yacutevgKʆampA3-Gě3yacutevg1szlig3Ĵ3ʼnOacuteKđɔ

b3OacuteɥGYacute1ampD1đɔb3˩ʙOacuteĴecirc3 LCOE B FG 3ʫȁ1ƐG40

ECN m-4otildeƊɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞKɥGǷdivideſĹ]bn (WACC) A3˘1ʆGWACC 4˜ǘ3yacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞĴ3ʌɞͿKyacute]bnszligiquestK˷ǥGćɂŚļɆ1ĠG Ugrave 1-41ĴecircD7đɔb3 LCOE FG3ʫȁKʆ3ʫȁ142008ƀ3 LCOEyacuteYj

3˩ʙʫȁKĠG3ʫȁ4Ĵecirc3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnszligiquestK˘ampʆampA3-G3Ͷ

oumlɯaRZn-Aś3 LCOE4ľƯaRZn1D)ɮ0)G

ĎȲ4 Ugrave 1-33mĀ3sup3Ś3amp3THORNoumlmg43gt-ʆG1ɫƧraquo LCOE FG3ʫȁ4

ʟo3Ǟ-ʆG

7

Ugrave 1-2 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divideOslashfrac12JFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h b

P bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b Ͷ^Pc(MW) ĎȲ5 23 20 30 20 24 20 17 21

Ͷļǘ 7 5 5 15 41 6 50 34 szligːǨ 2695 2260 2200 2150 2600 1750 3066 2628 ƷĎȲ6(eurokW) 1250 1373 1325 1250 1591 1790 1377 1449 ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 00 15 00 00 16 00 00 06 reg3]bn

euroMWhͿ 3 0 10 3 0 0 0 1

ʰƾijŚͿ(euroMWh) 000 4633 3139 000 001 000 860 629

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 12 0 13 20 11 31 5 11

njʰƾʱͳ

(euroMWh) 12 21 28 20 11 31 7 13

đɔb divide 61 38 57 114 366 46 318 NA

Ugrave 1-3 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14dividearingmJFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h bP

bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 55 50 70 50 50 60 50 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 110 95 150 100 120 70 75 100 Oumlyacute3otildeĜͿ 80 70 80 80 87 70 0 80 Ƿ3otildeĜͿ 20 30 20 20 13 30 100 20 ǴƀͿ 13 13 15 15 20 20 15 15 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 250 298 255 300 280 210 389 280

WACCͿ 52 56 60 59 47 49 75 49

Ugrave 1-4 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divide LCOE FGyuml2008Ā

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

bPb 120 (167) oPk 5 (7) Uh 94 (131) ʟĴ ndash1 (ndash1) oPk 85 (118) bPb ndash1 (ndash1) bP 83 (115) Uh ndash3 (ndash4)

bQRm 67 (93) bP ndash3 (ndash4) ʟĴ 65 (91) mZ ndash6 (ndash8)

mZ 61 (85) bQRm ndash8 (ndash11) đɔb 68 (95) đɔb NA

Ugrave 1-41ʆampD1Ĵecirc3 LCOE4bPb3 120MWh167oMWhͿĎȲ7EmZ3 61MWh85oMWhͿ=-Gđɔb3 LCOE4 68MWh95oMWhͿLJŚGěĴ3 LCOE ɮ0)G34Ĵecirc3ɯoumlʰƾǓaeligƷ]bn˺ǞȰ31DGA3-Gș1ěĴ3 LCOE1HE3vgĒltƐKDŽG

ĎȲ5 DF˳Ͷoumlɯ]bnccedilǿ14gɷƑtzſĹͶ)amp˞0vgKĠSrYAElig

ʬ1Gǥʄ0sup3ŚKĠG10G1ʆampLJŚOacute4ǷǮ1ʆampsup2ń3ƴ˗BĴşǦ1ȣ-GD

1ș3ćʣ0shyȓ3gtKʆA3G ĎȲ6 Yacute1ampD1Ʒ]bnD7aRZnƈˬ4 2008ƀ3A3sup3ŚGś14Ʒ]bnͶ3

ɯȲʗͿ14 2008ƀsup2ntilde3ǘŒĠ=HGė˃ƟG ĎȲ7 ɐǯn 1o139-njʙ

8

17 LCOEzoacuteplusmnecirc

ŅĴccedilǿ-4ěĴ1G 43˞0]bnvg3 LCOE93ƐKDŽ)ampĴecirc1 LCOEKLJŚ63]bnvgKĴecirc3Oacute$3reg3vgKđɔb3Oacuteamp3ccedilǿ14

|bPɂŚļɆđɔb3vgOacuteͿȣampĴecirc3THORNoumlvg3ƐKegraveFamp

3ŅĴccedilǿ-ȏ˯amp˞0vg14ɯoumlƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnKĠ

ampș13ʫȁKszlig3Ĵ3-ȣamp AringěĴ3szligːǨ3 LCOE 93ƐKx 1-3 1ʆ3IJ4 3 3ǥʄ0˱bKȣ

ampA3-G=Ɍˎ3Ȍ[y4Yacute1Ugrave 1-4 -ʆampěĴ3 LCOE K˘A3-szligTHORNoumlvgKĴecirc1ʆGș1ʳ4đɔbKʆA3-|bP3 LCOEK 68MWhszligvgKđɔb3OacuteG=ampʲˎ3jn4ȼĜbKʆA3-szligːǨKĴecirc3Oacute

$3reg3vgKđɔb3OacuteG x 1-31-6 4$HHɯouml˫đɔͿƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnK˘G

Ĵecirc3 LCOEɌˎ3Ȍ[yͿđɔb3 LCOEʳͿ43IJ-AŚ˞0]bnvg4ěIJ-ɮ0)FHKV-ccedilFǦʆG

x 1-3 rmicroQ1tzfrac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀkwIumlsect

x 1-4 rmicroQ1tzccedil-1kwIumlsect

9

x 1-5 rmicroQ1tzigraveeacuteETHaeligkwIumlsect

x 1-6 rmicroQ1tzccedilntildeacirciacute-1kwIumlsect

ěĴ3˞0Ͷoumlɯ]bn3vg34sup23D1˷ǥ-GampH1E0Ϳ frac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀăszligːǨ3Ĵ1DG14==0aacuteD7Iumlecirc3˞įƐ

GAring5oPk-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ1D)aRZnɯ4ͶɅ3 Ć1ƹB

EHGmZ-4Ĵatilde3ǵɯ3^PnKɯGntilde1Ͷ3ʹˬ˩1D)Ǡœ3Ͷ

oumlɯ^Pn3ˬOtildeǭǝEumlHGľĜAF$3ʫȁĴatilde3eacuteǴ3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn3

2008ƀ1ˬOtildeǭǝ3ť0)GbPb-4ű3NZdbEHGamp2008ƀ1śǟHampɯaRZn3ǘ4ŚHampA310)GʟĴ14Uumlccedil1ˍō0ͶɅ

KDzGaRZn^PnǘŅGʳ93NZdbeumlɥė˃ɞEHGamp

aRZnɥ^PnȪŚ14FFľĜ1D)4ɯ3aeligoumlƶiacuteKGKƖ00)

GǞbQRm-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ4Ƿʃʐ3reg3Ĵ4ĪͲ10)0Uh-4

FIT3ĽŌ3szligːǨ3ǰņOacute-ȪEHGampǰ0^PnKɯampFǰǝ3ƴ˗KɥampFGyacutePdlOzŪ00)Gė˃ƟG

ccedil-1ăƷ]bn4Ĵ1D)˒ɮ0GmZ-AUh-AszligːǨ1ļ+

ugraveƭ3 FITĽŌͶ3Ƹ1Ɛƕ)aRZn3Ʒ]bn1ƐGmZ-4szligːǨampF3˚ugrave3ͳKǰņ1Gampņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶUacuteYacute

HGǞUh-4˚ugraveKszligːǨ3ʜıatildeGampDF]bn3ŘͶ

10

ƴ˗ˡˡHGmZ-4oumlʡʭ93ʡ]bn)ampͶoumlɯaRZn3

ŨTHORN]bn34aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZn3So_oumlȸʿͿ

ǓƱ)G$3ampmZ3ʡ]bn4Ʒ]bn1Ġ=H0bPo

Pk$3reg33Ĵ-4ʡ]bn$3reg3ʡʭŀƍ]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿǓ

Ʊ)Famp)H4Ʒ]bn1ĠEHGbQRm14Ʒ]bn3ethȿ

ė˃10GD0ćʣĀHampʡʭʡưGoPk-4ͶoumlɯͶɅ3 Ć

1ƼņampʫȁɯbrvbarȐʿ4$3˚UgraveưȠŅ3aRZn-gɷƑ3ņ0ͶK

DFľƯ1ˬʹGKƖ00)GƷ]bn4gɷƑD7tz3ǘOacuteņ

0GͿbPb-4ű3ͶoumlɯaRZnɥ^Pn93NZdb=ampˠ

ȕ3ʪȽKȘGampƷ]bn0)G ʟĴ-4ņˠȕ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥEacuteɲ4ɚ1Ͷ3THORN1EcircFɯȲˠȕ

ņ0G1HEgraveȉotildeƊHG˯ǥHGʟĴ3QOoyM4đɔbD

FAaRZnˠȕņƷ]bnfrac12ampʟĴ3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4ǘotildeƊĖEHG

ơƣGˉģȻ1bQRm-4aRZn3ˠȕņ0)AEgraveȉ3otildeƊ

3ơƣ40H4 2008ƀ3bQRm3ˬʹ]bnmampaRZnşȣŪ0)ampamp-ė˃ƟG

igraveeacuteETHaeligăěĴʆampʰƾ3mg4ʄśƟşǦ1Iacuteͱ-0ǘOacute-G

mZ-4żͶoumlɯaRZn3OumlȖʿ4 5Έ10 ƀ3Ǵɱʰƾ^wbŋʢKƛ˞FH4ƀʢ 25kWĽġHGUh-4ʰƾ14żaRZnszligiquest-Ś3EgraveȉHG^wbŋʢ]bnD7ĸdegĠ=HFĽġH

G]bn45Έ23kWņoPk-Aǰfrac12 5ƀ3řszlig0^wbŋʢƛ˞HGľĜGbPb-4ʰƾ3ʪEHGuacuteNZd`wlO

3ĪͲ0E71Ͷ3ɼȧBcentȵ1D)reg3ĴDFʰƾ0)GʟĴ3

ʰƾ4ƀŨTHORNHampņˠȕ0aRZn-4ſĹfrac120)GD-GʟĴ-4

YN~jZbzoG4ɯȗ3ĦKordfnjGǨǴǣG˯ƻAcedilEHF

ƕ)ĽġHGmg3ʰƾ4ũ˰EgraveHGė˃ƟGoPk-AOtildeĦ3ordfnj

ƛ˞HGampũˠȕaRZn-4ʰƾ0)G=ampoPk4szligiquest3

ʰƾ3˞0Ȓƭ˞ʥͳ0ŚǴɱɠĸˡŤ3]bnĽġHGbQRm

-4ʰƾaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒ɮ0)G ccedilntildeacirciacute-1ăͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bn4ʟĴsup2ń3Ĵ-4ĝʋƄ-Gm

ZoPkUh-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿub`n1ļ+Ͷouml

ɯaRZn3K˺Goumlmiddotʇ-GľĜKż4aRZn$3A31D

)K˺GmZbQRm-4ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˊɱ1frac12

bZ3Ʒȗ˟0H$HaRZn33ȪŚ1ēǧHGʟĴsup2ń33Ĵ-

AaRZn3˺3Oumlȣɞ40)Fż4 60Έ87-G ʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn˺ǞȰ4(E5Aringńɱ-G2008 ƀ14ʟĴ3Ņ3aRZnż1ˇŹǷȣɞ55 100Ϳ-˺HaRZn1ļ+Ouml4lte-)ampH4Ǖƃ3yacute3˚ugraveiacuteƄ3amp-F3iacuteƄ1DFgjZb

SZPlO13ʀEHGSZPlOyMPpbȇƉɯ˖1DGǷ˺Ϳ1ɚĀHampƏƩ

ƞŀampgjZbSZPlOyMPpbUacuteYacuteHampampʟĴ-4regĴDFAǷ]bn

0)G0J(gjZbSZPlO4żOumlDFAͿ=ampʟĴ-4Ouml1D

G˺1D)aRZn3ɅKʄIgraveampb-4aRZn-40Ȱlaquo|-

3OumlK)GľĜ)amp =-3=x 1-31-61ʆamp 43˞0]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥD7ěĴ3 LCOEđɔ

b3 LCOEKx 1-71ʆ

11

x 1-7 rmicroQ1tzordfUacuteIgravekwIumlsect

x 1-8 4˞0]bnŃǘ3 LCOE 93ƐKE1ȣȏ˪Gamp1˞0]bnvgKĴecirc-40[1G3IJ-4ěĴ3]bnŃǘ3ƐD7đɔbȣampěĴ3 LCOE3ņKʆGȌ[y4ěĴ3 LCOE KŀdivideGOacuteKʆʲ3Ȍ[y4đɔbDFAěĴ3 LCOE Kfrac12GOacuteKʆ˞0]bnvgKLCOE đɔbDFŀdivideampʋƄȌ[yͿ3ņ1E1ʆGAring5ɯouml3ǰũŃǘ4bPbĽġampǘOacute-G

3Ĵ3ʰƾƷ]bnDFA LCOE KŀdivideG3ǰfrac12OacuteEǰOacute=-3Ĵecirc3THORNoumlvg3ʜıEɯoumlD7Ʒ]bn LCOE 1ǰAƐampJGH4ˊ1Đ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOEƨƄccedilǿˈG (IEA 2010 Cory and Schwabe 2009)ˉģȻ1ĽġHampʰƾ3ʜı4đɔbȣƷ]bn˺]bnDFA LCOE ŀdivide1ƐG3E ʰƾmg3ʄśƟeumlɥė˃Ɵƕ)THORNoumlvg3Ĵ1DG3ņLCOELJŚOacute3ȜʄƟKEHampA31ampė˃ƟGʰƾ1įGŸɮKȿEampE0Gccedilǿ

ƛ˞-GʾEHG

x 1-8 tzSUacute-1JFQ5 LCOEoslash

12

18 rkzacuteRuumljfrac14divide-1

ECN3m1DF-0ȳ1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯƯ3 LCOEKLJŚG-GraquoɠǨɏ-eumlɥ-GȳaRZn3mg4EHFɚ1Ĵecirc3 LCOE KLJŚG31ƛ˞0THORNoumlŃǘ3řszlig0mgƉGƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ1GĴecirc3 LCOE ȣ4˖)E$3đɔbAˬ0sup23Ugrave 1-5 D7 1-6 1ĽġHG]bn˺3mg3KʆɫƧmZ-4ʡʭ93ʡD7ȷƂz3ƛ˞ƟKʇmiddotɱɥGamp

aRZn3ɯȐʿHKƺ0-G3ccedilǿ-ɥampm4aR

Zn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏ1ʑ)ampA3-GampmZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF1ēǧ0m

Āccedilǿ-4Aumlɥ0)ampHE3ʡʭʡ]bnKĠG-mZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF4

ʢ 3000kW10Gx 1-71HE3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1˟ʏA)amp LCOEyacuteYjKʆ

Ugrave 1-5 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+fOslashfrac12JFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn aRZn3ɛȯ 2007ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF

ʓŶƀ 2007ƀ 2010ƀƔĄ ɚŚH ɯƯ^Pc(MW) 20 23 50

Ͷļǘ 60 90 12 szligːǨ 3350 3800 3700 Ʒ(eurokW) 3315 1883 3230

ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 0 0 0 reg3]bn(euroMWh) 11 0 0 ʰƾijŚͿ

(euroMWh) 149 0 123

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 0 24 0

njʰƾʱͳ(euroMWh) 44 24 33

ˀɥƀǘ 15 25 20

x 1-6 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+faringmJFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 45 65 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 120 112 150 OumlotildeĜͿ 50 26 70 ǷotildeĜͿ 50 74 30 ǴƀͿ 15 13 12 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 255 250 298

WACCͿ 79 92 77

Ugrave 1-7 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+f LCOEthornFG

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

Prinses Amalia 166 (231) oPkˊcurrenɂ NA oPkˊcurrenɂ 156 (217) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 6 (8) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 88 (122) Prinses Amalia 5 (7)

13

19 T LCOEYacuteEgravesup2

LCOE4==0ɶɱuumlȗD7˸ʿ3amp1˩ʙHGˊźȤǕʘȪŚʿƷŞaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿʗě3ɚŚ3qcKɄamp LCOE KeumlɥGamp) LCOE 1AumlJHGưȰ4ȓ-40LCOEK3ʋƄ˳LJŚGG43ʋƄ3sup3Śƛ˞4AumlɥG˩ʙǞȰ1D)==-FH LCOE 3ʫȁ1˒ƐG3ampecirc3 LCOE ˩ʙǞȰK=-3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECNmD7ǞȰťȣsup21˷ǥG Aring5ș˩ɩ`pU-4Ʒ]bn3ɠķOacuteD7ʇmiddotɱotildeƊɞKɥotildeFƊampƀ]bn3ſ

Ĺ1ļ+ćʣĀampdeg˘OacuteKɥ LCOE K˟ʏAGľĜG3Ni-4OumlǷȣɞOumlǷ]bnǴȰlaquoʌ)ampǥʄ0ɅʄIgraveǼacute3sup3Ś0H0$3degJF3ćʣ

0ǞȰ-4otildeƊɞLOacute3gtKɥF$H1D)yacuteưȠ3ɚƙKszlig˘GIEA 3Projected Costs of Generation Electricityrdquo (IEA2010) D7IEA World Energy Outlook 2009rdquo (IEA 2009) 43NiKɥFsup23Ɖ1DF LCOEK˩ʙG

3Ni-4IEA 4otildeƊɞKʇmiddotɱɅ]bn13˘G3]bn4ʇmiddotszligiquestɚŚ

3ƴ˗1ƷG1ƺ]bnK˘ (IEA2010)3ʇmiddotɱ˟ĸEIEA4otildeƊɞ 5Έ10KɥF5KȣɱŘŚɱ0ɢĿ1GOumlyacuteŰ˖bZ3frac12ƷŞeumlɥ-Gɞ1310K˒ʪȽɱƴ˗ɱbZD7EgraveȉbZ1ɷGƷŞ3Ʒ]bn13G (IEA2010)DFćʣĀampș˩ɩ`pU1DFTHORNoumlvg3ǘKǰũ1˳ʧƄ1D)ěʍ3ɯĺ3 LCOE KşǦ1ȣG-G H41 ɯȐʿ4 ECNm3D0Ƅ0Xj`ymKAuml)ɚŚ3aRZn

ě3 LCOE0E71ȜģɠķEgraveOacuteatildeĔɲɞȽǴ)ampreg3yacuteƿȔK˰EgraveG3m1˜ǘ3ƯDzʿ3ǥʄ0˺3ntildeNjǼacuteʌ3Ɛ$3reg3ĔTHORNG4]bn3ƐKĠ

GľĜAGǨ143mKɥegrave3ɉķɱ0]bn3ȵHK˰EgraveampFparaȐ3ɚŚ3

aRZn93ƷKė˃1GeumlɲƖEHGD0SrYEgraveȉKȪŚampFG(Harper et al 2007)3˳ʧ0ǞȰKɥampľĜƷ]bnBƀʪ-0ǘŅ3˞į LCOE 1ƐG10GaRZnƈˬ3ǰʨɱ0ȪŚȖ4ƷŞ1GampͶoumlɯ3ʮʯɱ0ˬʹKė˃1G]bn3OacuteKɡ˥

G14ƷŞ3ˡɏKɡ˥G˞-G Aring3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECN m4ƾccedilƷŞ1ƯŚ3Ƿeumlɲɞ (ROE) KIgrave˯aR

ZnȢ1 LCOEK˰EgraveGamp3Ƅ0Xj`ym-GYacute1ampD1ECN3Xj`ymKE1˳ʧ0A31G-ǷD7OumleumlőKƾ˺ȒKǥʄ1˘-

G=ampͶoumlɯ3]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏE˘-aRZnKGamp

3ĔTHORN3ȵH-ɸȡ0H50E0Ͷoumlɯ]bnK˟ʏG-G

110 LCOEYacuteEgraveocircicedilplusmnecirc

Ugrave 1-8 4otildeƊɞ LCOE ǞȰKȣampA3-GXj`yccedilǿ3ćʣ0ǞȰƄ0ǞȰ3ǞKɥ3otildeƊɞ1 LCOE K˟ʏFreg3egrave3]bnvgKě3đɔb1ɔEŚampE1HEʿ3ǞȰ1D)đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿKɣ GotildeƊɞK˘G

t=1Tsum Ʒ t + ʰƾ t + ɗǛ t + Ɏʥ]bn t + ǑĐ t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

LCOE =

t=1Tsum ɯouml t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

Ϳ

14

ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3ˡɏELdeg˘ɱ0otildeƊɞ4Ȥ3aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿG4ƷŞ3ˡɏ1ʑ

)ampotildeƊɞ3OacuteDFfrac120GtimesğGIEA2010 1DH5ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3otildeƊɞfrac120)Gɡɦ4bZŪǘ3ȤƷŞ-40ǘŅ3IumllaquoƷŞ1ccedilǗHGampɷGbZ˺]bn

Ū00Gamp-G$H1sup1ʇmiddotɱˡɏE3 LCOE 3˟ʏFAȤƷŞ3˟ʏFDFAfrac120Gtimesğ1G

Ugrave 1-8 icedil LCOEsup2plusmnecirc

ǞȰͽˡɏ ˡɏ ˺]

bn3Ʋ ɥ m

otildeƊɞ3

ʜı

otildeƊɞ3ʜı

1G LCOE

đɔb3

LCOEKɣ GotildeƊɞ

ș`pU ˩ɩ3ćʣ˩ʙ

agraveɱʇmiddotɱ ƷŞ3ˡɏ

otildeƊɞ1 ĠG IEA2010 5Έ10

53Έ70MWh

IEA3ǞȰͿ

95 IEA3ǞȰͿ

ƄXj`

yccedilǿ

aRZn ɯbrvbarȐʿG

4ȤƷŞ ǥʄ1Śʻ ECN2008 75Έ15

(ROE) 64Έ76

MWh 10

ECN3ǞȰͿ

reg3szlig3Ńǘ1đɔb3ntildeNjǼacuteKɥ Ƿccedilǿ-ĽġHamp ROE3ʜı1ļ+

Ugrave 1-8 1ʆD1(E3Ni-ALotildeƊɞ3 LCOE Oacute1˒ƐG95otildeƊɞ4ʇmiddot3ˡɏK˘ʞɬ0˩ʙȰKɥđɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿK˩ʙG31ƛ˞0Oacute-Gƕ)Ƿʃʐ3đdivide˽ĴĽġampmg1ļ+0E3otildeƊɞ4ǰņOacute1+4-F

IEA-43ʜıK 5Έ10GH4ʞɬĀampʇmiddotɱ˩ɩǞȰKɥƄXj`yưȰ3ordmOacuteKǥE1ampA3-G 1frac12Ǟ3otildeƊɞNjȊHampŽ3ǰAfrac12OacuteͿˊƷŞ3bK˘amp1ɥEHGƕ)

LCOEK˩ʙG14=ampͶoumlɯ3 LCOEKreg3Ʌ3 LCOEȣG14aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏG4DFƁoumlʡʭ|3ˡɏ3(E1ʑ)GKǥʄ1GėȘ-G

otildeƊɞ3Ƹ4$3ˡɏ1ťƜGdz=LCOEK˘ěʍ3ƉKɥGľĜ4ʑˆGˡɏotildeƊɞ$3reg3vg3OacuteKǥʄ1˥Gƛ˞HG

111 Iumlatilde

IEAWind Task263ʫȁELCOEĴ1D)ņɮ0)GJG33ƄĜ4ɯoumlƷɥ˺)ampě]bn3Ɛ1DGA3HGcurrenƦFĴŞ3 LCOE3Ÿɮ1ǰAƐamp34Ƿɱ0ͶȯG4Ͷ3ƴ˗shyȓ1ļ+currenɂHGɯouml-G=amp

ǷɱǓaeligD7ͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ǽacuteņɮ0GEźľoumlAͶoumlɯ3]bnszligiquest

1˒ƐGE1ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾAěĴ-˒ɮ0FH LCOE 1ņ1Ɛamp 63ɂŚļɆ-SrY3]bnszligˊK˘ LCOE 3Ɵ4ĴBɶɱ˸ʿ$3reg3eumlɥʿ3

-ćʣ0ȣ-GD1ƝJHGLCOE3ěʍ3˩ʙ3ˡɏE3D10HampKȜʄ1ɡ˥Gƛ˞GLCOE4ɪaacute-Aordfnjė˃0˩ʙ-A0IɚŚ3qc1ɥHGDzɲ-Eacuteeuml0k-Gƕ)ȣD7$3ʫȁ3˥14ɫƧGdz=

rOtildemiddot

Cory and Schwabe 2010 ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financial Variablesrdquo httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2009) ldquoThe Economics of Wind Energy A Report by the European Wind

15

Energy Associationrdquo March 2009 Available at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentspublicationsreportsEconomics_of _Wind_Main_Report_FINAL-lrpdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2010) ldquoWind in Power 2009 European Statisticsrdquo The European Wind Energy Association February 2010 Accessed at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentsstatistics100401_General_Stats_20 09pdf

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review and Comparative Analysisrdquo Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 Accessed at httpeetdlblgoveaempreports63434pdf

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2006) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2006rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2006weo2006pdf

IEA (2008) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2008rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2008weo2008pdf

IEA (2009) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2009rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgWbookshopaddaspxid=388

IEA (2010) ldquoProjected Costs of Generating Electricityrdquo 2010 Edition Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgpublicationsfree_new_DescaspPUBS_ID=2207

RECaBs (2007) ldquoRECaBs Interactive Renewable Energy Calculatorrdquo Renewable Energy Calculator Accessed August 2010 at httpwwwrecabsorg

Wiser R Bolinger M (2010) ldquo2009 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy August 2010 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs2009_wind_technologies_market_reportpdf

16

Aring 2Auml NDQ+

21 NDQ+uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ȑ˞0E71]bn3ɚƙKG-

4 2008 ƀ3D7ȳͶoumlɯƴ˗1GĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1ɒɏKƎG

211 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

2008ƀǶ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ĝ˩ 3179MW 2756MWȳ 423MWͿ-H4 2007ƀǶ3ˬOtildeş1ťʢ 1252000ƀ3ˬOtildeşDFA 32ŀdivideG2001ƀE 2008ƀ=-1ŀdivideampˬOtildeş3ʢĄǘ4ȳͶoumlɯ1DGA3-G2008 ƀ1ȳ-ƈˬ3ȳQOoyM4 3F(64 2009ƀ1řƭA64 2010ƀʈ1ŐGcurrenŚ-GˮȲ 5 x 2-1 1ʆD1ŨTHORN3Ƅ4Ǵ15EņJG2001ƀE 2003ƀ1

ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 725MW ŀdivideamp2004 ƀE 2007 ƀ=-4 8MW ŀdivideamp10H4 2003 ƀ1śǟHampaRZn3ǕɱǓǎ˩ɩņŽ1ȿͳHampʫȁ-GHK˚amp1 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampǝamp0ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFͶ3ƈˬǝamp1ȲɶHG10)amp2008ƀ3 FITŨTHORNƔ2010ƀ 7DZǶ=-1Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 280MWŀdivideG (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ1D)mZ3ʱoumlȸ3ʢ 20AEligʬHG

x 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

ˮȲ 5 Roslashdsand IIȳͶoumlɯƯ4 2010ƀ 8DZ1ŐG

17

mZ4ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ƀșɶȔKŚ0EU 3˞Ȩ1DH5mZ4 2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯ-ʱSrYȸ3 30Kamp3˩ɩKʘŚ0H50E0EU-4szlig3divideɳĴ13aumlɣė˃SrY3ɶȔOacuteKƭGamp3˖uuml˩ɩ3AcircƭKʻyacutemacrFm

Z4 2010ƀ 6DZ1Ĵ3˖uuml˩ɩKɯ˘G3˩ɩ-42020ƀ=-1ˬOtildeşKʢ 4 GW$H1D)Ͷoumlɯ4 11000 GWh10GcurrenƦHG=ampʱş3 3ccedil3 1D7ouml3ʢ 50Kȳ1ˬʹGͶEƖGcurrenƦHG (Kemin 2010)(0gt12009ƀ3ɯouml4ʢ 6700 MWh-G2010 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3currenɂ4ěȚŵdivideɳĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010) ʁǴɶȔ2008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MW3divide0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ˬ

Otildeş 350 MW3ǝˬŚEHG3ɶȔOacute3Ąccedil4Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ1D)ƭA3-$H1D)ʦʏş4 175 MWŀdivideG10GĸǞ3˩ɩƎŬ42012ƀ=-1 350MW1divideş 150 MWKdivideGamp3˩ɩKˠŚ0H50E0 ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MWKdivideGʁǴɶȔ433ņˠȕ0ȳͶoumlɯƯ0J( Horns

Rev II209 MW2009ƀ 9DZŐͿRoslashdsand II207 MW2010ƀʈʓŶcurrenŚͿAnholt400 MW2012ƀ12DZʓŶcurrenŚͿ1DFƭHG˟gt-G

Ugrave 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

1761 2358 2464 2697 2708 2716 2720 2728 2717 2756 2985 2621

ȳ 11 50 50 210 423 423 423 423 423 423 856 1339

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 2-2 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

176 1 597 106 183 12 8 4 8 ndash11 39 ndash38 ndash135

ȳ 11 39 0 210 223 0 0 0 0 0 100 ndash14

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

212 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1iacuteŚHampaumlɣė˃SrYȰ1DFͶoumlɯaRZn3ǝamp0ĽiacuteƄŨTHORNHampǝamp03ͶoumlɯaRZnD7UoN13ȳaRZnĎȲ8-4HAszligːǨ

22000Ǩ1igraveG=-bjnźľEgraveȉ1divide 025mZZrkW0034kW ĎȲ9 0047okWͿ3ugraveƭNjAEligHGĎȲ10szligːǨ˫3Ǩ1igraveampƔ4źľEgraveȉKĖĕG10

G Ͷ1ť4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥƀǘ3Ǵ ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3˚ugraveƀ 0023mZ

ZrkW00037kW 0005okWͿ˚ugraveHG

ĎȲ8 UoNaRZn134ȳͶoumlɯƯ3THORNǸư4ecirc1ƈˬHGȳͶoumlɯƯ3aRZn

ŚʻHG13ȳͶoumlɯƯUoNɧ˻db1DFƈˬHG ĎȲ9 17353mZZr ĎȲ10 ɠ˖3Egraveȉ˚ugraveiacuteƄ4ͶoumlɯaRZn93ugraveƭK 1 kWampF 010mZZr0013Ϳamp

[1degJ)ŨTHORNHampA3-G

18

ˊɱ1mZ-4ͶszligːǨ- 22000Ǩ3ɯK˖147ƀE 10ƀGAring5 3 MWͶKˬʹGH5FIT4ș3D1ȪŚHGĎȲ11

3 MWͶszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 3000 kWh

3000 kWh times 22000 = 66 GWh FITʬ˺Ǚ˚ugrave43 MWͶ 66 GWhɯG=-3ǴǓƱJHG3Oacute4ș3D10G

(66 GWh times 025Zr) + (66 GWh times 0023Zr) = 18064200Zr

Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4ʽǹĀampͶKǑĐGǝˠ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1A

ɥHG3ͳ4ǑĐHampˬOtildeş3 2ETHKɣɤGamp3szligːǨ 12000Ǩ1ť 008mZZrkW001kW 00139okWͿ-GAring5 225 kW3ͶKTHORNǝˠ3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn1D)ǑĐGľĜˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugraveK˩ʙGsup23D10G

225 kW times 2ļszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 450 kWh

450 kWh times 12000 = 54 GW

ǑĐamp 225 kWͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4

54 GWh times 008Zr = 432000Zr 3˚ugraveɥHG34450 kWǵɄ3ͶKǑĐGľĜ1EHG3˚ugrave3ơƣKĖGamp

3ǝˠaRZn-ǑĐGͶ3ǘ1iacuteˬEHGJ-403˚ugraveɥHG34

450 kWǵɄ3ͶK˩ 175 MWKǑĐGľĜ1EHG szligːǨ1ļ+ FIT-4Ś3 kWh3ɯǨ-40ˊ1tzgɷƑņͶD

FAņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶ93ƷUacuteHGAring5 3 MW 3ɯȗ3szligːǨampFɯouml (kWh) 415 MWͶ3 2ETH-ƕ)ĖĕG˚ugrave3ͳAETH10G ș1ʆUgrave 2-3D7 2-44FITͶoumlaRZn1GͶ3Ƹ1ĒltƐKʆampA3-3

Aring4ś3aRZn1ļ+G

Ugrave 2-3 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITuh AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave[]psup312

ɯȗ3

ˠȕ

MWͿ

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ ouml

MWhͿ

Ͷ 1ļampF3aRZn]bn

(DKK)

oumlłͳ (DKK)

ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 223 098 30 90 90 7497 23430 5250 224 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 223 098 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 227 100

(Nielsen et al 2010)

ĎȲ11 3Aring4reg3Ĵ3ʒ14Ġ=H0ampmZZr-ĽġG ĎȲ12 ĝ

19

Ugrave 2-4 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITu AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave]

ɯȗ

^Pc(MW)

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ

ouml (MWh)

Ͷ 1ļampF3aR

Zn]bn

(DKK)

ouml łͳ(DKK)

˚ugrave

(DKK) ʱĔTHORN

(DKK) ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 1650 6610 298 100 30 90 90 7497 2343 5250 1650 6900 295 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 1650 8920 273 092 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 990 5220 281 094

(Nielsen et al 2010)

˫3AringEņĺ3gg1ƷGDFAņĺ3ɯȗ1ƷGǞszligːǨ1ļ+

FIT 3ơƣKĖBJGUgrave 2-3 1ʆHGD1ǰAʪȽucircɞ3ˍͶ4ņĺgKOtildeamp 18 MW3ȣɱũĺ3Ͷ-GH4szlig3Ͷ-Ś3ɯouml kWhKļ1ampľĜ3 FIT1AƎ4=GUgrave 2-4 EszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT E3divideɱĔTHORNƖEHB34gɷƑũtzfrac12 3 MW3ɯȗ-Fȣɱũĺ3ɯȗ4 3frac141ˑ(GJG

FIT3ļɆszligːǨKɥGjn4currenˠŚHampˬOtildeşKƭGamp1ˬʹHGͶ3ǘŪ00G-G=ampH1DFgɷƑtz3OacuteKGjnAŪ00G

HE 2 3ʹ˩ɩKʘŚaRZnKĸUcirc-ĖTHORNHAE1ĪͲ0GľĜGszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT 4mZ3ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ʁǴɱɶȔOacute)ampˬOtildeş1ļ+ǕʘɱɶȔOacuteƭHGD1Gamp3A3-G szligːǨK FIT 3ļɆG3mjn4˚ugrave1DFźľ3ȝgtɣ GampǰAʪȽɱucircɞ

3ˍͶƛAaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ1)ǰAͺoumlɱ0gw-400G-G

$3ampǰʨɱ14Ͷoumlɯreg3ɅDFA10F20mZ-43ƏƉ3 FIT AumlJHGampɯoumlKļɆampɶȔOacuteƭ1G]bn0Gʫȁ0G

22 NDQ+ 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-4mZ1G 2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKG-ɥampmg42008 ƀ1˩ɩG4śǟHampaRZn3ſĹOacute1ļ+A3-GͶ93Ʒ]bn4^Pn3Ǽacute1DFŚ-40mZ-4ɯ]bnȣɱŚGD-GˬOtildeş MWampF3Ʒ]bn14ǰņ- 503GeacuteƀƄ3ɯouml MWh ampFƷ]bn3Ńuumlɞ4 15ǵɄ-G

221 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para mZ3ͶoumlɯaRZ-n4ˊ1Ū0Ͷǘ3Έ12ļͿ3ͶʺKɥG˩ɩW

PoP-4Ū0A 3ļ3ͶKɷʳɛG4ʵB0ŔKNJD1=ʹGGH4ͶK 1 ļccedilǗɱ1ʹGˡˢɱĉƋ0GE-GmZ14ņˠȕQOoyM3AringGbPBʟĴņ0A3-40ǰņˠȕ3b4Ͷ 20ļKˬʹGʱş 63 MWͿ

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹŚȉş4 19 MW-F$3gɷƑ4 80 mtz4 72 m-G2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ-ǰAˊɱ034 23 MW3Ͷ-F$3tz4 80 mgɷƑ4 93 m-G

(b) BL0+Ouml mZ3Ͷğ4ˊ1˝ğ-GampͶ3^PnɡƦɱ034āȷȮų10G

20

ˊɱ1ͶɅ4ǾŪ00)GȮųĸŻ$3Ģ-4ƀſĹͶ 7 msKGH4 2 MWͶtz 80 mͿ1ļ1ťszligːǨʢ 2500Ǩ1ɸƎG(Danish Energy Agency 2010)2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3 2009ƀƄ3szligːǨ4ſĹ 2639Ǩ-)amp2009ƀ3mZ3ͶɅ4żƀ3 88-2008 ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3szligːǨ4szligˀɥƀǘſĹ-ʢ 3000 Ǩ10GcurrenƦHGɫƧszligːǨ3LJŚOacute4mZszligiquest3ͶɅl`1GA3-402008ƀ1ˬʹH2009ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+˩ʙampA3-G

(c) ccedil-1 2008ƀƄ3deg˘ɱ0aRZnƷ]bn141100kW1529okWͿE 1300kW1807

okWͿ=-F$3ſĹ4 1250 kW1738 okWͿ-GEgraveȉ4 2008 ƀ1xZ1ampƔ2009ƀ 2010ƀ1ņŽ1frac12GɚƙG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ1GͶ3ʰƾ4IgraveIcircɡ^wbŋʢĸdegĵĸʚɡ3 4 ɶ-ȒƭH

GHE3ɶ$HHͶoumlɯƯ3ɣȹʰƾ3ʢ 25KĈG2008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlɯaRZn1currenƦHGɣȹʰƾ412MWh17oMWhͿ-G (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m4ƀ|b3Ouml 80-K˺GaRZnKɥGmZ1GȤ

ƯDz3Ͷ4ˊ1ƎƅOgraveŋʢ1DFK˺Gegrave3ĔTHORNKƎƅOgraveŋʢ1Ʒ FͶ

3ƯDzʿ43ļKɷDžeumlɥG-0Ʒ1ťGeumlɊ93ǓaeligǓƱ4szligOumlȖʿ3Ƴ˴

ʻyacutemacrEHG mZ3ɡƦɱ0aRZn4100Ouml-K˺GaRZn-Gż3aRZ

n-4Ouml1DG˺3otildeĜʢ 800)GͶoumlɯaRZn1ťGOgraveTHORNĮĔǴĖTHORNHė˃034 15ƀsup2atilde-G

2008 ƀƄ3ƎƅOgraveŋʢ3eumlő4ʢ 5ͼ-H4 5 ƀijŚHGͶoumlɯaRZn4reg3ƷȗɱbrvbarȐȣȵuumlƟ˟0HGampˊ1eumlőfrac120)GͶoumlɯaRZ

n3bZ˞įKʚɡ-Gegrave0ưȠGEͶ93Ʒ4bZfrac12˟0HG mZ1GǝˠaRZn3ľĜʣɤɞ4ż 9Έ11-G3amp 5~73bZ

Nė˃10G3EA1983ƀE 2002ƀ=-3mZ˯icircȇƉĕƊƯ3 OMX203bZNſĹ 72)amp3ȣͶoumlɯaRZn3bZȣɱfrac12JGĎȲ13 (Saabye 2003)

(f) s_N3N9A Ͷ30ĔTHORNɅ4NordPool źľK 3oumlłFIT Ə-3Egraveȉ˚ugrave-Gʬ˺

ǙbrvbarȐʿ3Ͷ3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢK 5ƀ=-ƇG-GĎȲ14HE3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢ4 Nord Pool3Yacuteəźľ1Ɇ ʴʫHG

(g) Q54Q1 mg4 Economy of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ1

ļ+A3-G

222 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para 2008 ƀ1mZ-ŐampȳaRZn40HA˩ɩG4ƈˬȠ1GȳQ

OoyMɯ4ˊ1Ǖƃ3˴ėKƖEHG10G3˴ė4THORNǸʋKEHG

A3-szligːǨ 50000Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml kWhampF3THORNǸ1ťǰfrac12Egraveȉ3A31˴ė

ĎȲ13 Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark ĎȲ14 10ƀijŚEgraveȉKNjAEligGǝˠ3ɯAɰľG

21

aeligHG10GHornz Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand I amp II4THORNǸʋKʪśɠampaRZn-GAnholt3ǝȳQOoyM3THORNǸǴ4 2010ƀ 6DZ1ʨpoundG$3ˬOtildeş4 400 MW-2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-1KŐG10G UoN13ǞƉĎȲ15QOoyMA˴ėHGUoNǞƉQOoyM3ˬʹlaquo

ƖEHH5Ͷ1Aĝ PdlOz[ɥHG10Gɠķ=-1 2 3UoNǞƉ3QOoyMƈˬHG

(b) ccedil-1 mZ1GȳQOoyMɯbrvbarȐʿ3Ʒ]bn4˴ėiacute3THORNǸʋKʪampʢ 200 MW3

ņˠȕQOoyM1ťʢ 2700Έ3000kW3753Έ4170okWͿ-G ȳQOoyMKĴatilde3oumlʡʭȳŃĶˬOtilde1ʡGamp3]bn4mZ-4Ĵƺ

GampaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷʱͳŪ00)GɢĿƐ˰Egravebrvbarntilde3ȷƂĸ˰Egrave3]

bnAĴƺG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳQOoyM3ʰƾ4ʭ˩mgEHF=ampȳQOoyMɥʪǬʳ

ƞthornKƭGamp1ʄśƟmZ3ņˠȕȳQOoyM3ɣȹʰƾ4ĸ

Ļ3ɛȯ1DF 18MWh25oMWhͿE 20MWh28oMWhͿ=-G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mZ3ņˠȕQOoyM3˺4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ȪʙǴszligiquest1ɀ)˖JH

GsmOjZƷ˖E3OgraveTHORN˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM1eumlɥHGraquoH4

aRZn93˺Ə-˖JHGJ-40Ϳ˴ ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4ż 50ƍ3Ƿȣɞ-˺HG mZ3oumlmiddotʇ3Ƿ]bn4ʢ 112ͼ Ouml]bn4 4555˩ʙHG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) s_N3N9A ˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml3ijŚEgraveȉKĖĕ)

GijŚEgraveȉ4THORNǸdb-ȪŚHGTHORNǸEgraveȉ4˺ǙHampƿȔ-40szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ĔTHORN Nord PooloumlĕƊ-3ł-ƖEHampƔ1ȪŚHGHorns Rev II3ˑǸEgraveȉ4 0069kWh0096okWhͿRoslashdsand II4 0085kWh0118o kWhͿ-GźľEgraveȉ1ťGEgraveȉ˚ugrave4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿTHORNǸEgraveȉ1Ɯ NjAEligGźľEgraveȉTHORNǸEgraveȉDFľĜQOoyM

Eʡʭɥʿ1ŸͳKǓƱJ250E0 ˴ėiacute-0G4UoN13ǞƉ3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 22000 Ǩ1G

=- 0034kWh0047okWhͿD7Ͷeumlɥ-Greg3˚ugraveKĖĕG

(f) Q54Q1 Horns Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand II3ƈˬ]bnʱͳ1Gmg4eumlɥė˃0agraveɱƥĽmZ3ȳ

QOoyMɯ3ŦŞD7ȳQOoyMƯDzʿ0E71ȳQOoyM3˺

ʿ93ˁĕF˺ȆE1THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙEƖampA3-G

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacute3ȑ˞-G

ĎȲ15 UoN13aRZn4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3THORNǸʋKʪ1˖JHGȳƈˬaRZnŚ

ʻHG3 23QOoyM1divide13ȳɯƯUoNɧ˻db1D)ƈˬHG

22

Ugrave 2-5 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ16

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ17 ȳ

2008ƀĎȲ18 ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 23 23 23 Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 3 91 90 ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2700 4300 3865

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 25 25 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1250 2844 3000

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash (1738) (3953) (4170) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 12 (17) 20 (28) 18 (25) $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 3 (4) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆ Economics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010

Ugrave 2-6 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 50 55 45 Ƿeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 110 112 112 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 80 45 26 Ƿ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 20 66 74

WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 52 88 95 Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 13 10 13 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 25 25 25

FXn $US 139 139 139 FXn DKK ndashndashndash 7353 ndashndashndash 7353

ǛΆEconomics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aeligIacuteɥļ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ

Ugrave 2-7 NDQ+uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 447 (621) 28 (39) 447 (621) źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 37 (51) 70 (97) 85 (118) FITǕʘǴ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 22000 50000 50000 ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

LVRT ˮȲ 6ĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ǛΆNielsen et al 2010 Danish Energy Agency 2008 Danish Energy Agency 2009 ĎȲ16 2007ƀ14mZ-ǝamp1ƈˬHampͶ40)amp ĎȲ17 2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ȳ1Ͷ4ƈˬH0)ampȳQOoyM 3ƈˬG4˩ɩȠ1)amp

$3( 24Ǖƃ3˴ė˩ɩ1ļ+A3-ȟF64UoN13aRZn-)ampHorns Rev II3ǰʨɱ0Ʒ3ȪŚ4 2007ƀ10Hampamp3ǘŒ4 Horns Rev II3LJŚ]bn1ļ+GRoslashdsand II3ƷȪŚ4 2008ƀ10H$Hĝƀ3]bn3Ȉƻ0)G

ĎȲ18 -ɥampAring42008ƀ1ƈˬŋʢʴʫHamp Roslashdsand II3THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙG ˮȲ 6 LVRT (Low Voltage Ride Through) Ķɾfrac12Ǩ1AͶ0ͶoumlɯƯ3KʮʯʡʭŘŚƄKʰƾGȗ˃

23

223 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc 2008ƀ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ93ƷmgKɥ LCOEK˩ʙAring 1Auml1ʆampđɔb3

LCOEȣampđɔb4Wind Task263szligđdivideĴ3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn-G đɔb3 6 Ńǘ3ƐKmZ3brvbarAringȣěŃǘmZ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOE 1Ɛ

GKǥE1ampđɔbmZ3brvbarAringKȣampʫȁKx 2-2 1ʆmZ3ſĹɱaRZn3 LCOE42008ƀ14 61MWh85oMWhͿ-H4đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿDFA 7MWh10oMWhͿfrac12)amp

x 2-2 NDQ+rmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup319

(b) BL0+dj đɔb3aRZn3aeligouml4szligːǨ 2600ǨKBBĮ)ampǞ 2008ƀ1Őamp

mZ3aRZn3 2009ƀ3ſĹɯouml4szligːǨ 2700ǨKBBĮ)ampH4 2009ƀ3ͶȯƤͶoumlɯ3ɯoumlAringƀ3 88ͼ10)ampamp-G3ɏKʾƬG2008ƀƄ3ſĹɱaRZn3ƀszligːǨ4ʢ 3000Ǩ-H1DFaRZn3ʪȽƟ=FLCOEʢ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿfrac12amp10GmZ3brvbarAring3szligːǨđɔbȣǤH5GLCOE4ʢ 1MWh1oMWhͿfrac12G

(c) Ntildeccedil-1 2008ƀ1GmZ3Ʒ]bn4đɔbDFAʢ 200kW278okWͿfrac12m

Z3aRZn]bn 15frac120)amp34mZ3ʡʭʡ]bnKƺG3ʡʭɥʿ-Gamp-G ʡʭɥʿ4ĖɏE3ʡ]bnKǓƱ3]bn14ŃƯBŃĶĬ3]bnĠ=HG3

aRZn3ƯDzʿ4ͶEĖɏ=-3]bnKǓƱA3SNʹ˩ɩˠiuml1GͶS

N˟0HGľĜ$3SN3ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿĖɏ=-ʡ-GD1ʡʭKƼƌ0H50E0

3]bn4ʡʭɥʿƺG3ˠiacute1DFaRZn]bnszligiquestKņŽ1ȿE-

GHKx 2-31ʆ đɔbDFAƷ]bnfrac120)G˞į4reg1ƈˬ^Pn3ĸɡɱǼacuteegrave0ĸ

Ucirc1ƍouml0Ͷ˛ɤȐD7ʪŢ0aRZnɯœķGʹ˩ɩɢĿƐ˰Egrave1

GͶ3Ȱˠiacuteăccedil1ǙOtildeHGǀEHG

ĎȲ19 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4ĭǂcopyTHORN3ampđɔběĴ LCOE3Ÿ3

Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

24

x 2-3 NDQ+eumlEuml-1-1iumleGK

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mZ3˺]bn4đɔbDFAͳ-GmZ3aRZn-ƛ˞H

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G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ3ʰƾ4Ńuuml133gt˘ʆHG2009ƀD7 2010ƀ3yumlƽɱʃʐ (Nelson

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25

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23 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+

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26

Ugrave 2-8 2007 2008NDQ+uumljfrac14divide LCOEpsup321

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave

(LCOE) euroMWh

($MWh) ndashndashndash 61 (85)

70 (97)

81 (113)

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euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) 67

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(110)

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rOtildemiddot

Danish Wind Industry Association httpwindpowerorgenknowledgestatisticsthe_danish_markethtml September 2010 (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)

Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2007 2008 (Danish Energy Agency 2008) Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2008 2009 (Danish Energy Agency 2009)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Ministry of Climate and Energy National handlingsplan for vedvarende energi i Danmark 2010 (In English National Action

ĎȲ21 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampĔɲʱͳͶoumlɯǕʘͽPdlO

zD7yacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜAG

27

Plan for RE in Denmark) (Kemin 2010)

Nielsen et al Economy of Wind Turbines 2010 EUDP (Nielsen et al 2010) (Original title Vindmoslashllers Oslashkonomi)

Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark (Saabye 2003)

28

Aring 3Auml lt8

31 lt8uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

311 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

oPk1GͶoumlɯɯ4 1990ƀdegeacuteͰ1ŐHamp$Hsup2ǽͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4 239 GWsup210)ampƀŨTHORNş4 2002ƀ1 32 GW1ampƔJ1ȿŪampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4 2012ƀ=-1Ĝ˩- 306 GW 1ǤG˟=HG2012 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3Ĵecircaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010)

2009ƀȳQOoyM3ʖ 1Ě0)amp Alpha VentusʓŶampH1DFȳ3ɯŧǽŐ=GA3ǴƒHGoPkǕƃ4 2015ƀǶ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʢ 25 GW1GɶȔKɯ˘G

x 3Ă1 lt8uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

2000 ƀoPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4Ĵatildeʱɯouml3 16KĈsup2ǽ3otildeĜ4ņŽ1Ǥ8ƀƔ14 620)GcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3ŀdivideoPkǕƃ1DGɺSrY3ĕFʩgtKʾƬG3otildeĜ4notƔAǤKʯGcurrenƦHGUgrave 3-1 4oPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ĐD7ŧǽ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 3-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀşdivideKʆampA3-G

29

Ugrave 3-1 lt8IacuteAtildeTHORNOacuteeth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

44 61 88 120 146 166 184 206 222 239 306 358

ȳ 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 100

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 3-2 lt8oacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

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2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

44 17 27 32 26 20 18 22 17 17 14 03

ȳ 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 04 17

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

312 s_CcedilN3N9A

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ɯoumlđɔ^Pn3ɯouml3 150KĮGD13Ǵ4 060ͼ1ʮʯHG ȳͶoumlɯ3ļǷĕEgraveȉ4 62MWh86oMWhͿotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 91MWh127oMWhͿ

Hampȳɯ3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4˫3 EEG3shyʩgt1ļ+ȪŚHamp

(c) EEG2009 2009 ƀ3 EEG -4Ͷoumlɯ3ļǷĕǛ 502 MWh698 oMWhͿotildeŀĕEgraveȉ 92

ĎȲ22 oPk3đɔ^Pn4ǷĽġǮ-ɥampđɔb133-401ȲƧ

30

MWh128oMWhͿ1ǔ˨Hamp(E3ĕͳAQOoyM3ƈˬƀEƀɞ 1-frac12ƕ) 2009 ƀ3ƈˬaRZnĖĕGotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 92 MWh128 oMWhͿ10G2010ƀ3ƈˬaRZn-4 91MWh126oMWhͿ10GǠœ^PnˬOtildeǭǝaRZn-H5E1 5MWh5oMWhͿ3otildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideʙHGͶoumlʡʭ3^nAring5Ģȱǘ˺ǙͿ-GľĜ42014ƀ=-1ˬʹHGǝˠaRZnĝ 5MWh7oMWhͿ3ĽotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ť0GͶ 2010ƀ=-1ǰĀHampľĜǠœ3aRZn1ťG3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 7MWh10oMWhͿ1ŀdivideG ȳQOoyM14 35 MWh49 oMWhͿ3ļǷĕEgraveȉɥHGȳQOoyM

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32 lt8VUgravefrac12oumlRPacuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+

321 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

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31

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ĔTHORN4SrY3 FITD7GǛEƖEHG2007ƀ1ƈˬHampaRZn3ĽŌ4 819

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ʡ]bn4Ġ=H0

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ɱĽġǮ1ļ+

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32

Ugrave 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

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2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 2 2 NA 5 Ͷļǘ ļ 5 5 NA 12 ɯ szligːǨ 2260 2260 NA 3700

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA 20 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1259 (1750) 1373 (1908) NA 3230 (4490)

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 4571 (635) 4633 (644) NA 123 (171) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 149 (207) 152 (211) NA ndashndashndash $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

Ugrave 3-4 lt8uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 55 55 NA 65

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 95 95 NA 120 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 70 70 NA 70

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 30 30 NA 30 WACC ͼ 56 56 NA 68

Ǵ ƀ 13 13 NA 15 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 298 298 NA 298

FXn $US 139 139 NA 139

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard Destatis

Ugrave 3-5 lt8uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 79 (110) 78 (108) NA 84 (117) FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA 20

ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ

ƀ NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 16 16 NA 16 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

323 lt8oumlRBL0+yuml2008ĀrmicroQ1-1plusmnecirc

x 3-2EoPk3 LCOE85MWh 118oMWhͿǷĽġǮ-Yacute1ampđɔbDFA˒ccedilG$3ɡɦKsup21IJʆG

33

x 3-2 lt8uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup323

324 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) BL0+dj LCOE 3KAampEG34aRZn3śʷ-GʾEHGđɔb3ş

4ƀszligːǨ 2630ǨoPk3ļǷaRZn3szligːǨ4ƀ 2260Ǩ$HDFA4G1frac12

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4 1373 kW1908o kWͿ-đɔbDFA 76

kW106okWͿfrac12)ampLCOE1˧5H4ʢ 3MWh4oMWhͿȿ1ɸƎG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAʢ 7MWh10oMWhͿH

4ŚǴɏȏ3śǟQOoyMũˠȕ01DGcurrenOtildeĦ3Igraveʚ]bn3Ǥ)ampɡɦ1DG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 oPk3aRZnđɔb3Ÿɮ4ʢ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-H4˺Ȓ

31įG

(e) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4ƦŚ0

325 s_F(=2E

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯ14EEG1ļ+ FITɥHGoPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn EEG2004G4 EEG20093-ƲJHGF$Hsup2ń3ĔTHORN4˟=H0E1oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎGamp3reg3PdlOzKŨTHORNG4ƧIJHE$3currenƦA0

ĎȲ23 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4ĭǂcopyTHORN3ampđɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3

Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

34

x 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup324

326 aringmH7B

x 3-31ʆampD15MWh7oMWhͿ3yacuteYjɣ FH4szligːǨʰƾ3Ÿɮ1DGA3-G

33

-LoPk3QOoyM3Aring4Śȉaeligouml 2MW3Ͷ 5ļ-ȒƭHGaRZn3szligːǨ42260ǨƦŚG3m3ƦŚ1ļ+LCOE485MWh118oMWhͿLJŚHampNjAEligHamp FIT1DFaRZnɯǨȐʿ3yacuteYjampFʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ10GǛ3Oacute4 EEG-ˠŚHG

Ugrave 3-6 lt8Iumlsectpsup325

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

85 (118) NA 135

(188) ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

79 (110) NA 84

(117)

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

5 (7) NA 46

(64)

rOtildemiddot

BMU Leitszenarion 2009 ndash Bundesministerium fuumlr Umwelt Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit Langfristszenarien und Strategien fuumlr den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland ndash Leitszenario 2009 (2009)

Destatis Statistisches Bundesamt wwwdestatisde (last access December 2009) ĎȲ24 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAG ĎȲ25 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

35

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 32 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122007 (2008)

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 34 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122008 (2009)

Deutsche WindGuard Deutsche WindGuard GmbH on behalf o Zentrum fuumlr Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Wuumlrttemberg (ZSW) Vorbereitung und Begleitung bei der Erstellung eines Erfahrungsberichtes gemaumlszlig sect 20 EEG (2008)

EEG 2004 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich (2004)

EEG 2009 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich und zur Aumlnderung damit zusammenhaumlngender Vorschriften (2008)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

36

Aring 4Auml JN6

41 JN6uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

411 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬʹş42000ƀ3 447 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 2121 MW1ŀdivide3( 228 MWȳͶoumlɯ3ş0)GͶoumlɯ1DGƀ3ɯouml42000ƀ3 08 TWhE 2008ƀ3 43 TWh1ŀdivideGǞ2008ƀ3Uh3ʱȸouml4 119 TWh-)ampͶoumlɯ3ʁǴɶȔ42008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 2000 MWdivideG-G3ɶȔ3ƭ1DFˬʹȽgtG4ƈˬ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʱş4ʢ 4000 MW10G2009ƀ14950 MW3ȳͶoumlɯ3THORNǸŐHGȳͶoumlɯ3ɶȔOacute42020 ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 6000 MW 1G-Graquo EU 3aumlɣė˃SrYƿplusmn3ʻyacuteKɄGamp34 2020ƀ=-3ɶȔOacute45178 MW-G x 4-1 D7Ugrave 4-1 4-2 4D7ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71ěƀƄ3

ʁǴɱD7ǴɱɶȔOacute3currenɂ-Gszlig3şmg4ěƀǶ3mg-Gɏ1ɫƧ-GU

h4ǠœͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ14ɶȔOacuteKŚ0

x 4-1 JN6uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 and Rijksoverheid 2010

2000ƀ3ƀŨTHORNş4ĝƀǶ3ʦʏˬOtildeşĝ ş1ˬŚHampUgrave 4-21ʆȜģƀŨTHORNş4

ǑĐampͶoumlɯaRZn3ȜģˬOtildeşKĠL-GUgrave 4-2 1ʆamp2009 ƀE 2012 ƀ=- 2012ƀE 2020ƀ=-3ěǴ3ȜģƀŨTHORNş4ě3Ǵ3ſĹƀŨTHORNşKʆGsup23˘1ʆˬOtildeş4UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ1ļ+ˬOtildeş3currenɂ-GRijksoverheid 2010Ϳ

37

Ugrave 4-1 JN6IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0447 0485 0672 0905 1075 1224 1453 1641 1921 2727 6000

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0108 0228 0228 5178

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 andRijksoverheid 2010

Ugrave 4-2 JN6regwoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0038 0038 0187 0233 0170 0149 0229 0188 0280 0202 0409

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0 0 0 0619

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010Rijksoverheid 2010

412 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1ǝamp0 FIT ĽŌ˩ɩ-G SDE ˮȲ 7ŨTHORNHamp3 SDE bX3-Ͷoumlɯ3ś3ɯ]bn1˟ĜotildeŀĕEgraveȉoumlčEgraveȉ1divideǓƱJHGE1aumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗93Ʒ

1fynʌiacuteUacuteLjʹKɥGjnSDEotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3Ȃʩgtatilde-ȏ˪HG

42 JN6VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-Uh3deg˘ɱ0D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZnK˷ǥG

421 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh4 2003ƀ1szligːǨ|b-ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎG FITiacuteƄKŨTHORNamp2006ƀ=-4

szligːǨ 18000 Ǩ=-3aRZn1ťǰ- 10 ƀ FIT NjAEligHamp2008 ƀE3 FIT 1DGǓǎ4szligːǨ 2200 Ǩsup23aRZn1ť˖JHG10)ampſĹszligːǨ4ƀʢ2000Ǩ-$3ˊɱ0ʜı4ƀ 16002800Ǩ-G Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4FITǓǎ3˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZnKʆGĎȲ263

aRZn-4$3Pq`NlOz3ņĄǕɱ1ś˖ė˃0]bn3|KˬŚGdeg˘ɱ0

34 15 MW3ũˠȕQOoyM-ͶoumlɯaRZn3ņĄ 23 MW3ͶgɷƑ 90 mtz 60Έ80 mͿKAuml)G3ĸĻ-4iacuteˬEHFHE3ĸĻ-4tz 4060 m3 450800 kWͶˊɱ-G

(b) ccedil-1 aRZn3deg˘ɱ0Ʒ]bn4 1000kW1390okWͿE 1600kW2224okWͿ

=-Fˊ1Ʒ]bnszligːǨAŅ0)G

ˮȲ 7 SDE (stimulering duurzame energie) UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrYD7ɖAtildeʬ1GǓǎbX ĎȲ26 đɔaRZn134Ƿccedilǿ-ɥampđɔb13KƿA3-401ȲƧ

38

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3atildeˮ4ɯouml1D)ŃuumlGA3 9Έ12 kWh13Έ17 okWhͿż4ɥ

ŐE 5ƀ3^wbŋʢ1DGͿˬOtildeş1D)ŃuumlGA3 25kW35okWͿĸdegʡʭʡ]bnKĠͿ-GƔʿ3Oacute4aRZn1D)˒ɮ0Gś3ʰƾ4ƀ 23otildeĜ-ŀdivideGƦŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷKēǧampƀ|b3Ouml 80-˺GaR

ZnKɥG˚ugrave3NjAEligʿ-GͿǕƃ4ˇŹǷɞ 15D7Oumlɞ 6ͼKȜƦŚGoumlmiddotʇ4ub`n1ļ+˺K˖)GȰlaquoʌ4 255ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A 0ĔTHORNɅ4Yacuteəźľ-3Ǵŋʢ1DGoumlł-FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ1D)yacuteYj

K)Gyumlƽɱ0dividePdlOzfynSrYƷotildeƊ1D)NjAEligHG

3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4˹ʌė˃0ĔTHORNɅKƾamp0ɯbrvbarȐʿKĠ==0brvbarȐiquest1ɥHF1

43iacuteƄ1DFƯƖʌ 421ťeumlɲKƖGɯbrvbarȐʿAG

(f) Q54Q1 -ɥampmg4Uh3 FIT otildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3˩ʙ-ɥampđɔaRZn3agrave˘mg-

G (Lensink et al 2009 Cleijne et al 2010)

422 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh3ȳͶoumlaRZn-4ƈˬ˴ėKƖǰņ 50 m2ˠȕ3QOoyMKƈˬG-

Gƕ)deg˘ɱ0ȳaRZn3ˬOtildeş4 100Έ300 MW-Fʡʭ1NjAEligHGȜģɯouml4szligːǨ 3300Έ4000ǨɸƎ-G2008ƀ1 Prinses AmaliaQOoyMřƭamp1ʆmg14$3]bnȒ4ƛAĠ=H0

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4 2500Έ3500kW3475Έ4865okWͿ-G2008ƀ1řƭampaRZn4$

3ǘƀntilde1Famp˴ė3iacuteǼacute3ampȣɱũĺ3 V90ĺ 2 MWͶKɥG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ɥbrvbarȐʿ3ɥśʷ3Ū01DFʰƾ14ņ0ʄśƟœķGƀʰƾ4 90

kW125okWͿLJŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZn|b3˺ȒKɥF$3Ouml3otildeĜ4 50-GPrinces

AmaliaQOoyM3˺4aRZnȢ1˖)GWACC3ƦŚOacute4ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3Ƿ]bn3ordmOacute-H4 NuonShellƯDzG OWEZecirc3Ǡœ3ȳQOoyM1ɥEHampOacute-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A Ǡœ3QOoyM4Ǣ MEP˩ɩ1ļ+˚ugraveKĖF97MWh135oMWhͿ3ijŚ

FITĽŌKƖampfynPdlOz3˚ugraveɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 3mg4Ľɯ˘$3reg3agraveɱ1eumlɥ-GƥĽ1ļ+A3-ƥĽ1ŸɮGľĜ4ʆHamp

ƥĽ1ļ+m[-˚)G

39

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘1ěƀ1ƦŚampD7ȳͶoumlɯ3OacuteKʆ2007ƀ3aRZn]bn4 2008ƀǨ

ɏ3n1G-ʆGUgrave 4-5 3ouml3źľEgraveȉ14ĕƊ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnǴŋʢ3otildeƊɞĠ=HG

Ugrave 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 1 15 120 NA Ͷļǘ ļ 1 5 60 NA ɯ szligːǨ 2000 2200 3350 NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 15 NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1120 (1557) 1325 (1842) 3315 (4608) NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 40 (56) 24 (33) 92 (128) NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) NA NA NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

Ugrave 4-4 JN6uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 5 5 5 NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 15 15 12 NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 50 NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 50 NA WACC ͼ 60 60 79 NA

Ǵ ƀ 10 15 10 NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 255 255 255 NA

FXn $US 139 139 139 NA

Ugrave 4-5 JN6uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (81) 56 (78) 59 (82) NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 663 (922) 28 (39) 97 (135) NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ 37 20 44 NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

43 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ƛ˞0˴ėKƖG3ampogP0)

G

40

431 JN6uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 4-2 JN6rmicroQ1plusmnecircxpsup327

(b) BL0+dj Uh3Ͷ3ːɞ4ʢ 25-FszligːǨ 2200 ǨͿđɔb3 30DFAfrac12FIT 1DG

˚ugrave4szligːǨ 2200 ǨKGG4 SDE ˠiacute3˳ʧKʾƬ$HDFAfrac12ˬŚHGͿamp2200ǨDFAŅɯGamp3PdlOz4ŚHGE1˞0˞į4B4FͶȯ-G

432 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4Đ3ĪͲ1EcircGė˃ƟGszligːǨ 2200Ǩsup2KɯGPdl

Oz4ŚHGͶ3ˬ˩$HHBBɮ0)Fƕ)EgraveȉŘ0Gė˃Ɵ4ǃ-0

Aring5ĝ ɯȗKAuml)AgzoũľĜƷ]bnfrac12szligːǨŀdivideG

(b) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ0)Gį4ĸdeg3-Fƀʢ 10kW15okWͿ-G

(c) ccedilntildeacirciacute-113T-1 đɔbȣGUh3Ͷoumlɯ4Ȱlaquoʌȣɱfrac12 (255ͼ) eumlɏAGǑĐ]bn

4ʾƬ0

433 s_F(=2E

Uh3ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ43ʍ͵3PdlOziacuteƄ3ơƣKĖG-G$30A34 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ-2007 ƀ=-1HK˞ȨampaRZn1ťMEP ˮȲ 81DF 10 ƀijŚotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligH2008 ƀsup21HK˞ȨampaRZn3ľĜ4SDE 1DF 15 ƀŃuumlotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligHG3 FITiacuteƄ1divideaRZn3ľĜ4ǰņƷ]bn 600kW834okWͿ1ťƷ]bn3 443ʌdž3Ʒ˚ugrave (EIA) D7otildeƊɞ 13fynKeumlɥG

ĎȲ27 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ ˮȲ 8 MEP (Milieukwaliteit Elektriciteitsproductie) Uh3oumlɣɤ1GȰƓ

41

-G

x 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup328

434 aringmH7B

Uh3yacuteYj42007 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn1˧5Ugrave 4-6 đɔͿʢ ndash36 MWhndash50oMWhͿPpb3Oacute10)GH4Đ3MEP3 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3ˬ˩3Ș1DGA3-˚ugraveͳ3ļɵ0)ampoumlEgraveȉK 2Έ3 MWh3Έ4 oMWhͿfrac12ƦŚamp1DGoumlEgraveȉ 6~8 MWh 1ǤG1HŪ0AoumlEgraveȉ4ͶoumlaRZn4ż1ͺoumlɱ0A310)ampƔʮiacuteƄ-G SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ1ļ+ 2008 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn143ȘĕFHyacuteYj4 ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿBBPpb3Oacute10)GěʍaRZn3ɯ]bn3Ž4ndash3 DFA4G1ņɏ1ȲƧG3ampndash3MWh4oMWhͿPpb3Oacute4eKņĮGA3-40 ȳͶoumlɯ3b3yacuteY4Ɗʯ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-)ampH4ɷDžƖampyacuteƥ

Ľ1ļ+A3-40Princes AmaliaQOoyM3Ȫʙ1İɣ amp4ǥE-G

44

Uh4ŧǽ1A 2020ƀ1AD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Dzdz0ɶȔOacuteKŚGɠķ3 SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ4HKśɠGamp3ǰA˞0k-G43 Eacute3ccedilǿʫȁEUh3brvbarAring1GyacuteYj4ʹ˒-40JG ugraveKƖampɯouml4szligːǨ 2200Ǩ=-1iacuteHG3ǘOacute4Uh3Ͷȯ1ċampA3-G2200Ǩsup23ɯ1ťGPdlOz4ŚHFHAƷ]bnfrac123į-Gė˃ƟGʰƾ4ĸdeg3ampȣɱ

0)G

ĎȲ28 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

42

Ugrave 4-6 JN6Iumlsectpsup329

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

91 (126)

94 (131)

166 (231) NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

127 (177)

96 (133)

161 (224) NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash36 (-50)

ndash3 (-4)

5 (7) NA

rOtildemiddot

Cleijne JW SM Lensink and CJ Faasen (2010) SDE Wind op land met vollasturen en differentiatie [SDE wind onshore with full load hours and differentation] ECN-E--10-001 Petten January 2010

Lensink SM JW Cleijne M Mozaffarian AE Pfeiffer S L Luxembourg and GJ Stienstra (2009) Eindadvies basisbedragen 2010 [Final advice SDE premium base rates 2010] ECNKEMA ECN-E--09-058 Petten November 2009

Rijksoverheid (2010) Nationaal actieplan voor energie uit hernieuwbare bronnen Richtlijn 200928EG [National Renewable Energy Action Plan Directive 200928EG] Den Haag June 2010

Statistics Netherlands (2010) online databank httpstatlinecbsnl VoorburgHeerlen August 2010

ĎȲ29 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

43

Aring 5Auml 1CN

51 1CNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bP3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯŮ1G=ampɚŚ3 EU 3ɶȔ1ļ+ CO2ǃaeligethȿ3amp

1 2020 ƀ 2030 ƀ1ƦŚHGɶȔOacuteKʆE1ˠiacute3ȂʩgtK˷ǥGraquo$30Ȓƭ˞ʥK˟ɷordfȾoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3]bn3ƐKŪ0Gamp1ɠķ˖JHGͿ E1 2008ƀ1GbPźľ3deg˘ɱ0QOoyM3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) K˷ǥ$3sup3

ŚKregĴ1GͶoumlɯ3]bnȣG

511 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac12frac34laquo

2009ƀǶǨɏ-Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4 19149 MW1bP3oumlʡʭ1 3ɭɶ1ņ0Ʌ0)GbP3Ͷoumlɯɯ4 90ƀdegĄ51Ő=F2001ƀsup24ǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşƀſĹ-ʢ 1800MWdivideHampˠiacuteǔȜHamp 2004ƀ 2007ƀ14Ĵɟplusmn 4362004D7 6612006Ϳ3şņŽ1ŀdivideamp3ˠiacute3ǔȜ1DF$HKeumlɥampǝˠaRZn3ʑ(EumlHamp

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯouml42009ƀ3bP3SrYʱ˞3ʢ 14KĈG x 5-14ŅĴȣ3ťƀ-G 2008ƀ=-1bP1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3H=-3ʦʏˬOtildeş

ƀŨTHORNşKʆG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3mg4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3SrY˖uuml˩ɩNREAPͿ1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)2020ƀ3currenɂ4SrY˞3 20Kaumlɣė˃SrY- EU3ɶȔƭ1ğampǘOacute-G

x 5-1 1CNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

x 5-1 4bP-H=-1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşD7notƔˬʹHG˟=HGˬOtildeşKʆG=ampƀŨTHORNşKx 5-21ʆ2009ƀbPǕƃ4 2010ƀE 2012ƀ=-3ěƀ1ˬʹG MWşKiacuteGamp3otildeƎKŚG1amp=ampoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3ƐKȿ Gamp3˩ɩKnotƔ3Ȱplusmn1ʩgtL-ɯ˘ampszlig3aumlɣė˃SrY]aRr`3

Ĝ˩ş 6000 MW4ʱoumlĕƊ3 25KĈH4ʪȽĊȗ-4ɚ1]bn-GͿ

44

bP1GȳͶoumlɯ30Ł4ņȍ0-F3ampȮų3ȦȻ 50m 10)Gƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ-4ͳ0ļʅ˞0F$3ampHE3aRZn3ś˖ė˃Ɵ4iacute

HGE1aacuteʡɏ-4ȺĀŇɓWbļĸ1ˬʹHG]uPo^PZWbgw3

ɯ1DG~nrjZœķGampNZdbşEHampA310)G

Ugrave 5-1 1CNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

16 22 34 49 62 85 100 116 151 167 23 35

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 5-2 1CNoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

16 06 12 15 13 23 15 16 35 16 15 14

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

512 s_CcedilN3N9A

Ȱɱ1currenƦHGEacuteɲKĖGamp14ͶoumlɯaRZnKɚecirc3iacuteƄ131ccedil͵Gƛ˞G

ʟĴ3ȉ˴ŚiacuteƄĝȓͿH4ͶoumlɯaRZnʡʭ1UacuteYacuteDžʯ-GũłbrvbarȐʿAacuteocircouml

KĕE250E0Ϳamp=ampEgraveȉˠiacuteHGamp-GĴɟƿplusmn 6612007-˘ǥHampD1Ͷoumlɯ3ǓƱbX14ˠiacuteǛbXźľĎɡ3 2G

ˠiacuteǛbX4QOoyMƯDzʿƸampǴ1GͶoumlɯ3ʻyacuteɱ0ijŚĕƊ

Egraveȉ-Gx 5-23ǘOacuteͿ ǰʨɱ0Egraveȉ 1Ǩ3ɪEgraveȉoumlPdlOz1ļ+oumlčźľEgraveȉ3ʩgtĜJ-Ȫ=GI3źľĎɡ4ĽŌ13AĤ5HGƕ)ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿĖĕGǛ4

Egraveȉ1ŷęHG10F3Egraveȉż1frac12ľĜ4ǰfrac12Egraveȉsup2-H5ˬ

EHGx 5-34ˠiacuteǛ3đɔOacuteKʆG

x 5-2 Ucircgntilde1)QEAcirc ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

45

ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ4ntildeǡźľ3ɯ˩ɩKNjaeligcurrenɂKɥ3˩ɩś3ɯouml3currenɂ˶ŸKȿE

D1GE1==0ĸĻ1ƈˬHampQOoyMɸuml1˚Ugrave-˶ŸKŪ0Gamp

1==0aRZn[ĀHG3`bl1DFN``bl3ȴɥ

ʬ˺ǙKǰĀG-$3]bn34ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿǓƱ)G2008 ƀ4ʢ 15 MWh205oMWhͿ-)amp ˫3Oacute4Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120071D)ȸʿEgraveȉƿǘ (CPI) 1ļ+ǭǝH2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝ

ɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp x 5-34Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073ǟ˖sup2Ɣ3 FITǛiacuteƄ3ŃuumlKʆampA3-G2007ƀĴɟƿplusmn 6612007

1DF CPI1Ȯ) FITǔ˨HG10F2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp2010ƀ14ǭǝHampOacutePpb10FntildeƀKĮ)ampH4 CPIe1)ampamp-G bP3ʡʭɥʿ-G Red Electrica de Espantildea (REE) 1DH5ˬ Otildeş3 94ijŚEgraveȉĕU`

1D)ɥHGampčoumlźľEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ƐH0x 5-4Ϳ

x 5-3 ~BINcentIcircceyuml~[umlāntildeĀ ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

x 5-4 dividejo~uumljfrac14divideethyuml2008Ā ǛΆ Spanish TSO (REE)

Ͷoumlɯ3ņccedil4čźľ-ɷDžłHGampĽ4Egraveȉ1ņŷęHŇɓWbEgraveȉȦouml

ɯ3ɛȯ0E71Ĵźľ1G CO2 Egraveȉ3Egraveȉ1ƐG3amp 2008 ƀ14ſǡEgraveȉ4 6443MWh8956oMWhͿ0F2007ƀ3 3935MWh5470oMWhͿK 64Į)ampH4ɠķ=-1˫HampEgraveȉ-ǰAͳ-G Ͷoumlɯ3źľĕƊEgraveȉKx 5-31oumlčEgraveȉKx 5-51ʆYacute1ampD1Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073brvbar

Aring-43Egraveȉ4E=-3ʜıatilde1GſǡoumlčEgraveȉ1ļ+EgraveȉĽŌ3Ĝ˩Oacute-G

46

x 5-5 dividejBQK[umllcedilyuml2003Ą2009Ā ǛΆOMEL and Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

52 1CN 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-2008 ƀ1GbP3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKHKreg3đdivideĴ1GͶoumlɯɯ3ěʍmȣG

521 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

ɚecirciquestiacute13`blKeumlɥGamp14bP3QOoyM3ˠȕ 50 MWK40E0ˬ ʹampQOoyM3ſĹˠȕ4ʢ 25 MW-˩ ʙQOoyM3ˬOtildeşK 2007ƀA 2008ƀA 30MWsup3ŚG Ğɶ3ɥǨ4Śȉaeligouml-ƀ 1700ǨE 2350Ǩ=-==-G2008ƀ3szligĴſĹ4 2085

ǨͿ=ampaRZn3đɔOacute4 2007ƀ- 2200Ǩ2008ƀ- 2150Ǩ-)amp bP-ɥEHGszlig3ʪȽm-4aRZn3ɥǴ4 20ƀGraquoH4Q

OoyM3śʷ4E0Ϳ2007ƀ 2008ƀ14aRZn3Py^PZK 20ƀG

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹˠȕ4 1985 kW-2007ƀ3 1621 kWEJ1ŀdivideamp3m-ȏ˪G34 2000 kW3Ͷ0J(3QOoyM-4 2 MW3Ͷ 15ļͿ-G

x 5-6 2008THORNOacuteuumlegrave2bszlig ǛΆ Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

47

(b) ccedil-1 ƀ3Ʒʱͳ0)amp34Zb III D7 IV ˮȲ 93ņĺͶoumlɯ˙ʹˬʹHampE-

FƎeacuteEĶʡʭ93ʡBěʍʌcurrenɂHampJ-40 $H1AJEƀ4ĎǺǛ]bn3frac121DFͶ3]bnȿŪG=ampǕĊȗˠiacute3

Ńǭ1DFͶ3˞Afrac12ampQOoyM93Ʒʱͳ1ĈGͶ3]bn4ʢ 70Έ73ͼ-G3]bn4ĎǺǛ3Egraveȉɠķ3[jo]o1Ɇ ampƛ˞0ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵ1šDž1EcircG

2007ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn14Ʒ]bn4 1233kW1714okWͿ2008ƀ14 1250kW1738okWͿLJŚHG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾAaeligoumlƶiacuteȒatildeoumlȸ3amp3oumlǛˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵŀamp1DFŀdivide

Gʰƾ4 2007ƀ 1910MWh2655oMWhͿ2008ƀ 1963MWh2729oMWhͿLJŚHG100ͼŃuumlͿHE3]bn4|3ŃuumlƟdegǯĦ3eumlɥė˃Ɵƛ˞HGɕʶƴ˗ʿBȗȋ˙ʹ)amp˞į1G Ͷoumlɯȗ3^Pc4ƼņGͶȯ3ǰAD^Pn4-1eumlɥHGampŚȉǨ4ȿŪ

G10G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȞĘɱ1bP-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯKbPĴatilde3˖3oumlD7ŘŚampȰɱȂ

ʩgt1ļ+aRZn3yacuteiquestiacute1D)˺amp$H1AJEȵuumlƟKȘamp˺iacute

Ƅ3amp13 2ƀ-ɛȯŃĀAgraveE3ƺIgrave1DGIgrave˯ƛ˞10)G ˺]bn42007ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ1ˬŚHG2007ƀ2008

ƀAǷOuml3ȣɞ4 2ť 8-G2008ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A źľ93ł1DGĔTHORN42007ƀ1 394MWh548oMWhͿ2008ƀ1 644oMWh895o

MWhͿ-)amp3ĔTHORN1ť2007ƀ1 348MWh483oMWhͿ2008ƀ14 215MWh299oMWhͿ˰EgraveHamp FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideHGFITǕʘǴ4(E3bA 20ƀ1ijŚHG

(f) Q54Q1 1ʆampmg4bPͶoumlɯąmiddot (AEE) D7 Intermoney śǟampʃʐ1ļ+A3-G

522 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

bP3ȳͶoumlɯSN4 62SN1ccedilotildeHHE3SN-4ͶoumlɯˠiacuteHGHE3SN1ťTHORNǸ˖JHG10G3śɱPq`NizK5currenɂHGQOo

yM3ˠȕ4ʢ 1000 MW-G

(b) ccedil-1 mg0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig mg0

ˮȲ 9 Zb III4sectʬ˵Ũɯȗ (DFIG) D7ccedilŚȉ3]ugKɥampͶZb IV4ĝǴɯȗD7y

Śȉ]ugE0GͶccedil͵HG3ccedil͵ǞȰ3˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

48

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mg0

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A mg0

(f) Q54Q1 mg0

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 5-25-54sup23 LCOEccedilǿ-ɥampm[3ntildeNjǼacuteKʆA3-G]bn3sup3Ś4szlig 2007

ƀ 2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZnK˘A3-2008ƀnǨ3-˘ʆG

Ugrave 5-3 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 30 30 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ 15 15 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ 2200 2150 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1233 (1714) 1250 (1738) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 191 (266) 196 (272) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA

Ugrave 5Ă4 1CNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 9 10 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 6 7 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 NA NA Ǵ ƀ 15 15 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 30 30 NA NA

FXn $ 139 139 NA NA

Ugrave 5-5 1CNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 53 (74) 54 (75) NA NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 34 (47) 35 (49) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ

ͼ 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 20 20 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 36 (51) 37 (52) NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

49

523 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 5-7 1CNrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup330

(b) BL0+dj bP3ͶoumlɯaRZn4đɔbDFAˬOtildeeumlɥɞfrac12ͶȯbP3szligːǨ1Ɛ

GampbP3 LCOE4đɔb3 LCOEDFA 18MWh25oMWhͿ0)Gđɔb3ſĹːǨLJŚ 2680Ǩ-G31ťbP4 2150Ǩ0)G szligːǨ4bP3 LCOE đɔb3 LCOE 3Ÿɮ13ǰA˞0Ńǘ-GͶȯ1divide

ʰƾAđɔbKĮ)FH14ĸdegD7ĸĻBˇȬiquest˞ȨGeumlɲɞAĠ=HG LCOE33˷ǥ0Gʖ 33˞į4˺]bn-F3ͳ4aRZn3WACCD7ǰʨɱ

1ě3Ʒ1˞ȨHGƷĔɲɞ (ROI) KŀdivideG

(c) ccedil-1 bP3Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4ʢ 1250kW1738okWͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 200

kW278 okWͿŘbP-4Ʒ]bnfrac12ampLCOE 4 10 MWh14 oMWhͿfrac120G ǑĐ]bn4QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘʨpoundamp3ɯˬOtilde3˥iquest]bnKĠampͳ-ʱƷ]

bn3ʢ 3ͼKĈG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bP3brvbarAring1Gyacuteɛȯ1ˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlɲɞ4đɔbDFA0)G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig bP-4ʰƾđɔbDFA0)GbP3ʰƾʱͳ14ʌĸdeg

ʚɡ]bnKĠamp3ŃuumlĠ=HGnotƔ3ʪethȿoumlˇŞȸǛ3ǤˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ

˜Ɵ3=F1DFʰƾAŀdivideG˟gt-G ſĹbP3ʰƾ4ʢ 196MWh272oMWhͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 7

MWh10oMWhͿ

ĎȲ30 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

50

524 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

Yacute1ampD1bP14 FIT iacuteƄͶoumlɯ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄͿźľiacuteƄźľEgraveȉͶoumlɯ3ĽŌͿ 23ǓƱiquestʡG2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ3ʢ 91ͼKźľiacuteƄ1DFłampH4ɯȐʿDFŅ3ĔTHORNKƖEHGamp-G x 5-8 4ĔTHORN3ŃǘȥǛͿͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOz3ŃǘbP1GźľiacuteƄ

3ĽŌͿKȣampA3-G

x 5Q-8 1CNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup331

525 aringmH7B

bP3mccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿ-G3EſĹbP3ͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOzEaRZnɯ

3yacute˞acuteKɄamp-G3ăccedil0Xj`yKƖGJG

53 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 5Ă6 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+psup332

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

76 (106)

83 (115) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

87 (121)

86 (120) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash11 (ndash15)

ndash3 (ndash4) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2009) ldquoEoacutelica 09 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Julio 2009)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileANUARIO20COMPLETO5B15Dpdf

ĎȲ31 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ32 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

51

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2008) ldquoEoacutelica 08 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Junio 2008)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee- publicaAEE_anuario_ingles08pdf

AEE ndash Intermoney (2006) ldquoEstudio de costes del sector eoacutelico Realizado por Intermoney para AEE (2006)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee-publica060612-Gen-EolicaEsp- PRALpdf

Comisioacuten Nacional de la Energiacutea (CNE) wwwcnees

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Red Eleacutectrica de Espantildea (REE) Spanish TSO wwwreees Royal Decree 6612007 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacionRD_661-2007-REpdf Royal Decree 4362004 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacion(36)RD436_2004pdf Spanish Market Operator (OMEL) wwwomeles

52

Aring 6Auml 1$QN

61 1$QNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bQRm3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙ0E71 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿK˷ǥG

611 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş42004ƀ1 474 MW)amp3 2008ƀǶ14 937 MW0)Gx 6-1ͿbQRmĆ3ȳQOoyM3ˬOtildeş4 2007ƀ14 110 MW-)amp=ampqN`N133Ƀ-3ɯAEHG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯcurrenɂ4EUdivideɳĴ3ěĴaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 3mg1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)

x 6-1 1$QNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_Uacuteuacute

ǛΆVinkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 and European Commission 2010 Ugrave 6-14bQRm1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=amp

Ugrave 6-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 6-1 1$QNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

220 220 272 322 381 429 470 560 698 951 2065 4365

ȳ 10 20 23 23 23 23 23 23 133 133 150 182

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

53

Ugrave 6-2 1$QNoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

ndashndashndash 05 51 50 59 48 41 90 138 253 278 288

ȳ ndashndashndash 10 25 0 0 0 0 0 110 0 4 4

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

612 s_CcedilN3N9A

bQRm-4aumlɣė˃SrY1DGɯ3ǓǎʘĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ (TGC) KŨTHORNG$3ɶɱ42016ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 17 TWh1ŀB-G3ɶȔOacuteK2020ƀ=-1ė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 25 TWh1GE1OacuteGampɠķ3iacuteƄ3ǔȜȏ˪HG=ampbQRmsQR3aacute`bl3Ȓʝ1ğampordfȾ˖J

HG 2008 ƀ=-4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ˖ɢĿĽŌ13AĤ5HGijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) Ͷoumlɯ

1ɥHamp3ɢĿĽŌ134ȳͶoumlɯ14 2009ƀ=-eumlɥė˃-)amp=amp 2003ƀ1vPjnaRZn3Ǔǎ˩ɩŐHampȳͶoumlɯţaringȥNtildeȎȀĸŻ-3Ͷoumlɯ)

ampˉģȻ˟0HampaRZn12008 ƀE 2012 ƀ=-3Ǵ1 3710 5160 oͿ3currenʙotildeƎEHG

2006 ƀʈǕƃ3ɢĿƐccedilǿ1Gˠiuml0E71ǝˠͶoumlɯaRZn3˴ėdbʞɬĀH25 MW=-3QOoyM4ˇȬiquest1ŭaeligH5ˬʹ-G0)amp ͶɅ3eumlɥ1GƥĽKƁcedilGampbQRmǕƃ3Ũ3Ͷoumlɯ3eumlɥ1GĴatilder

jnZĎȲ33ȒʝHamp3rjnZ1DFͶoumlɯ3˩ɩʘŚD7˴ŚʋuacuteOslashoumlbrvbarȐ3ɯ

Ůʰƾʚɡ1Gʀ˾KȻbQRm3ͶoumlɯɯaRZnKEumlH

G E1Ͷoumlɯ3]mOrgKɥɯbrvbarȐʿEcircƎŬ0E71ĸUcircĸĻĴ3ě|1

GEcircʿ3ordfȵEumlKIJ)G

62 1$QNVUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

621 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bQRm-43aRZn3szligːǨ4 2600Έ3050 ǨĽġHGżbQR

m3Ͷoumlɯj1ʆHGszligːǨ4ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿNjaeligampǘŒKĮ)

G3amp˩ʙ-4bQRm3aRZn3ǰʨɱ0ͶoumlɯǨKĽġHampʜı3 2600ǨͿG

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3aRZn42008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZn3]bnD7ɯoumlēǧ

Hampdeg˘ɱaRZnŚʻHamp Ƿ]bn4ampF 12171915kW1692Έ2662okWͿ=-Fmccedilǿ-4 1591kW2212okWͿsup3Śamp

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3ijŚccedil4ſĹ 0004 kW0006 okWͿŃuumlccedil4ʢ 11 MWh15 o

ĎȲ33 httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse đɔ

54

MWhͿLJŚG3Ńuuml4 7 MWh10 oMWhͿE 24 MWh33 oMWhͿ=-FvPjnaRZn1Gʰƾ4ż1ŃuumlņɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒

ɮ0)G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 Ugrave 6-51ʆD1mccedilǿ-4OumleumlőKƷŞżĽġG 5˟L-GͶoumlɯ1Ʒ

GparaȐ3middot˩Ľġ3ccedilǿ-420ͼƍOuml]bnʆHGbQRm3paraȐccedilǿEŨaeligampƛ˞0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞʫ7macrOumleumlőɞK 5LJŚampľĜͶoumlɯ3]bnKũ˰EgraveG10F20

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ǵŋʢ1DGźľ93oumlłŨTHORNHGĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ

23ĔTHORN3ȵH1D)KƖG(E3ĔTHORNɅAʄśƟż12008ƀ=-FITĽŌiacuteƄAɥHFͶoumlɯaRZn4 2 MWh3 oMWhͿŪͳ3ĽŌKĖamp

(f) Q54Q1 LCOE˩ʙ3mg4˫3D0ɥǓǎ˩ɩ3ʫȁD7Ĵatilde3_3amp1bQRmSrY

Ŭ=ampmg)amp˜ǘ3ƥĽɅ1ļ+A3-GǑĐ]bn4 Svensk Vindenergi (2009) 3mgKAumlɥampbQRm3Ͷoumlɯ˩ɩ1Gʭ˩Oacute4bQRmSrYŬȢƀɯ˘

GĽġǮ ES20103 ldquoVindkraft statistic 2009 (Wind power statistics 2009)rdquoD7 Vindkraft Statistik 20081ļ+G2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯǨ4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ3mgKAumlɥGE1Ͷoumlɯ3ɯȐbrvbarʿEʆmg3NjAEligKĖamp=ampEcircGotildeƊɞKǥE1Gampmiddot˩ǛKđɔampE14˚Ǜ O2 0E71 AriseȇƉźľ3ŨTHORN1GbrvbarȐaeligɘəEŦŞ3Ƨ˟KƊɥamp

622 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

2008ƀǨɏ-ŨTHORNHampbQRmǰņ3ȳaRZn4Lillgrunden3 11 MW3aRZn-)amp3aRZn4 Vattenfall 2004ƀ1Ɗʮ2007ƀ1ʡʭ1ʡHampLillgrundenaRZn-4 Siemens3 23 MWͶ MKII 48ļAumlɥHG$3( 13ļ4 2004ƀsup2ntilde1ʡʭ1ʡHGbQRm3ǰǝaRZn4 3 MW3Ͷ 10ļKOtildeamp GaumlsslingegrundaRZn-H4 VaumlnernɃ3Ģ 7Έ13m1ļʅKˬʹampqN`N133aRZn-G

Ugrave 6-3 LillgrundenBL0+Z

Lillgrundenmg Ά ļɆȷDF 115 m gɷƑΆ 924 m ʱʏΆ 6734 m2 iacuteƗǞȰΆ ėŃxjiD7ėŃƄ gƄΆ 6Έ16 rpm ǰņYacuteʔƄΆ 280 kmh gΆ 60 t pdΆ 82 t gΆ 110 t LJŚƀɯoumlΆ 6875500 kWh ˬOtildeeumlɥɞΆ 35ͼ ſĹͶΆ 85 ms

55

Ugrave 6-4 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 235 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 41 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2600 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1591 (2212) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 0004 (0006) NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 16 (222) NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 6-5 1$QNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 12 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 87 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 13 NA NA WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 47 NA NA

Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 28 NA NA

FXn SEKeuro ndashndashndash 942 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

Ugrave 6-6 1$QNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 50 (70) NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 25 (35) NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 2 (3) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 1 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

623 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

x 6-2 1ʆD1bQRm3 LCOE 4đɔbDFʢ 1 MWh1 oMWhͿfrac120)G

56

x 6-2 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1psup334

(a) BL0+dj bQRm3szligːǨ4đɔbDFAH4ͶoumlɯaRZn1eumlɥ-Gĵĸʏ

^[ampreg3Țŵ˽ĴDFAņampƎɓ3-G

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3Ʒ4oumlɯaRZnTGC `bl2001 ƀEŨTHORNͿ0E71Ǡœ3 NordPool

ʡʭ1995ƀEoumlĕƊͿ3amp1đɔbDFABB0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig đɔbbQRm3ʰƾ3Ÿɮ4ǰũ3A3-H4^1DGė˃Ɵʹ˒

-40

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bQRm3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12H4bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ93Ʒ1

GbZ3|frac12E-FbQRm3Ͷoumlɯɯ1GʪEƎɓ3˧G

x 6-3 1$QNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup335

ĎȲ34 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

57

624 s_CcedilN3N9A

ĔTHORN4 1Ϳoumlł1DGĔTHORN2Ϳ[˯Ǯł1DGĔTHORN3ͿFITE3Ūͳ3ĔTHORN2009ƀ1ƆțͿ3 3-ȒƭHG ĔTHORN4źľE33ȵH-GampʄśƟņ0b-4ȥǛ4 50 MWh

70 oMWhͿ-ŘŚG˟0H[˯ǮEgraveȉ4ʢ 25 MWh35 oMWhͿ)amp2009ƀ1OacuteHamp

625 aringmH7B ſĹɱ0aRZn14ouml3źľEgraveȉ TGCiacuteƄ3˚UgraveKʩgtĜJG-ăccedil1]bnK

-GD-G

Ugrave 6-7 1$QNIumlsectpsup336

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 75

(104) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash8

(ndash11) NA NA

63 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 6-7 1ʆampD1bQRm3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˇŹǷ]bnD7Ouml]bnfrac12amp1ǷdivideſĹĎEgrave (WACC) ȣɱfrac120)GD-GaRZn3AEligʬ4Ouml1DGǷ˺1DGA3-macr3˺Ǵ4 20ƀ-G$HDFAmacrǴʁľĜA$EG˕Ǵ3ʨpoundǨ1ʸFHG bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ4ȞĘ=ampƀƞ1ƭG2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrY

ɅK 25 TWh1GɶȔKƭGamp14ͶoumlɯKE1ɯŮƛ˞G

rOtildemiddot

Dagens Industri wwwdise 2010-03-16 Storm kring vindkraftsbolag

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

E24 wwwe24se 2010-03-16 Vindkraftsbolagen anklagas foumlr glaumldjekalkyler Nationellt naumltverk foumlr vindbruk (national network for winduse) httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse

Svensk Vindenergi 2009 Vindkraftverk ndash kartlaumlggning av aktiviteter och kostnader vid nedmontering aringterstaumlllande av plats och aringtervinning

Vinkraftstatistik 2009 ES 20103 2010 Swedish Energy Agency available at

ĎȲ35 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ36 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

58

httpwwwenergimyndighetenseGlobalPressPressmeddelandenVindkraftsstatistik202009p df

Vindkraftstatistik 2007 ES 20082 2008 Swedish Energy Agency available at httpwwwenergimyndighetenseen

59

Aring 7Auml 11

71 11uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bPb3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙacirciquestɱ14 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿ3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1GbPb4atildeĴ-GampȳaRZn4œķ0ǪˤIgrave3ampɃȭĸĻ4ɠķͶoumlɯ^PnEńHG

711 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş41996ƀ3 2 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 14 MW1ŀdivideampͶoumlɯ1DGƀɯouml4 2000ƀ3 18 GWhE 2008ƀ3 2020 GWh1ŀdivideampH1ť 2008ƀ3ʱ˞ouml4 587 TWh-Gɠķ˩ɩEHGaRZn1D)2012ƀ14 65 MW3ɯė˃10GLJŚHGǕƃ3SrYǕʘ-4 2030ƀ1 44 MWKɯGɶȔKljG

x 7-1 11uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

Ugrave 7-14bPb1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 7-24ĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-1 11IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

28 28 451 455 456 866 116 116 116 136 176 65 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

60

Ugrave 7-2 11oacute_ethyumlMWĀ

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

28 00 170 065 001 350 290 002 000 200 400 150 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

712 s_CcedilN3N9A

bPb-4 2008 ƀ1oPkĝȓ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄFITͿKŨTHORNamp3`bl4LJŚHG LCOEKamp3A3-GFIT 1Ġ=HG34oumlźľEgraveȉ[ouml3Oacute-GͶoumlɯ14bPb3 FIT4 110MWh153oMWhͿΈ130MWh181oMWhͿ1ijŚHG

72 11VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

721 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZn42 MW3Ͷ 6ļKOtildeamp Juraű˅Ȕ 1000Έ1200 mͿ3

QOoyM-GbPb1GͶoumlaRZn3L2 MW3ͶgɷƑ 82 mtzʢ 8 0mͿKɥG3ĸĻ-4NZdbiacuteHGamp1gɷƑg31ˬEHFŚȉaeligouml 800Έ1000 kWtz 40~60 m3ͶKeumlɥG

(b) ccedil-1 bPb1Gdeg˘ɱ0aRZn3ě3Ʒ]bn4ampF 1790 kW2488 kWͿ-G

Țŵ1GͶ93Ʒ]bn3otildeĜ4ſĹʢ 76bPb-4 55~6810)G34bPb3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn93NZdbďiacuteHGamp=ampbPb-4laquoacuteż1amp-G

3ampɯƯ3ʪȣɱ0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ14bPb-4śʷŪ0ampEWEA agrave˘ampʰƾ3ȣ1ļ+bPb3ʰƾK 31MWh43oMWhͿsup3Śamp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 sup23˘4bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥamp˺]bnKʆG

Ugrave 7-3 ccedilntildeacirciacute-1YacuteEgrave

źľeuml 5 ƛ˞0Ƿeumlɲɞ 7

Ƿ3otildeĜ 30 ˀɥƀǘ 20ƀ ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ 20ƀ

Py 0 Ǵ 20ƀ

ȰlaquoʌɞOECDͿ 21

61

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A bPb14aumlɣė˃SrYɯ3brvbarȐeumlɥ-Gɜʑ3ĔTHORN`bl 2ʍ͵G 64 FIT `bl-H4sup23]bn˩ʙ3ļɵ0GA3-3ȽKĖEHG34Ȧoumlɯ

10 MWsup2atildeͿňɖɯͶoumlɯuPUb0E71uPUbƆǺ-Gaumlɣė˃SrYɅ[vͿ1DGɯ1ɥė˃03Ǜ`bl4ɯǞƉaeligoumlecirc1đɔˬOtilde1ļ+acirciquest

ɱ1ˠŚHěƴ˗3 LCOEK-Gshyʩgt10)GȽ4ɯǞƉ1D) 20Έ25ƀ3Ǵ1ɥHGcurrenƦHGƴ˗db0E71HE3ƴ˗3źľĀEuml1DFHE3Ǜ`bl

-4ͳ3Ƞɱfrac12currenƦHGǛ3ȿͳɥHG34ɰampɯˬOtilde3gt-FHE3ˬ

Otilde4ȽǴK ŚampǛ`bl1DFȽKĖGɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKLľĜ$HĝǨ1oumlźľ-[oumlKłG4-00G ʖ 2 3ĔTHORN`bl4[oumlźľ-GɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKeumlɥ-0ľĜ4źľ-

oumlKłG10Gż$3ĔTHORN4ɯbrvbarȐʿoumlmiddotʇ3ordfȾ1D)ȪŚHGoumlĽŌK

ouml3źľEgraveȉ1divideampͳ-G

(f) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşmg4 Swiss Wind Energy Association ldquoSuisse Eolerdquo1DGA3-GƷ]bn

ʰƾ3mg4 2008ƀ1˩ɩHampͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ȇ1DGA3-G˺]bn4 FIT˩ʙD7 Swiss Federal Office of Energy3mTHORNouml3sup3Ś1ļ+A3-G Ugrave 7-47-64bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOELJŚ1ɥampmĀ1Gsup3ŚKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-4 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 2 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 6 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 1750 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1790 (2488) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 31 (43) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 7-5 11uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 7 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 30 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 70 NA NA Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 21 NA NA

FXn CHFeuro ndashndashndash 067 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

62

Ugrave 7-6 11uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125 (174) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash Ńuuml NA NA

ɯȐʿTHORNȐʿ-ordfȾ

73 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯ]bn4ʢ 120MWh167oMWhͿ-đɔbDFA 58MWh81oMWhͿ0)G

731 -1plusmnecirc

x 7-2 11uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecircpsup337

(a) BL0+igraveeacuteOgrave bPb-ɯHampouml4đɔbDFA˒Ū00)GH4ͶoumlɯʋƄ-Gamp

-GszligːǨ 1750ǨͿ

ĎȲ37 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringěĴ LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0G

ľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

63

(b) ccedil-1 bPb3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAH4Ņ3^Pn93NZdbİ

˜-GD7laquoacuteamp-GbPb3aRZn4ũˠȕ03-ņˠȕ0aRZ

nȣͶTHORNǨ3otildeƊɞfrac120)G

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig bPb3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAɯƯ-4ɼȧcentȵĪͲ10)F$3ampʰƾʚɡ

]bn0)GbPb-4ʰƾ1Gśʷ4L0

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bPb3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ4 7HGraquoL3a

RZn4yacute3ɡɦ1DFƷ0oumlmiddotʇ˺Goumlmiddotʇ4[ouml3˞3

=F1ƚKŠG

732 s_F(=2E

bPb1GͶoumlɯ3 FIT4 110~130MWh153Έ181oMWhͿ-mĀccedilǿ-4 125MWh174oMWhͿKɥGĔTHORN3DF˳˷ǥ4 721ugrave(e) Kđɔ3|-4$Hsup2ń3yacuteǓǎ`bl40

x 7-3 11uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup338

733 aringmH7B bPb-4ǕʘPdlOz1DF LCOE K)Gx 7-3 EbPb3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaR

Zn-4 FIT1DF LCOEK˚)GJG

ĎȲ38 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

64

73

Ugrave 7-7 11uumljBL0+psup339

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 120

(167) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125

(174) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash5

(ndash7) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

Die Website fuumlr Windenergie-Daten der Schweiz Accessed at wwwwind-datach

Erlaumluternder Bericht zur Revision der Anhaumlnge EnV Bundesamt fuumlr Energie 2102009

Swiss Energy Act of June 26 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_0html

Swiss Energy Ordinance of December 7 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_01html

ĎȲ39 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

65

Aring 8Auml Ecircz

81 Ecirczuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4ʟĴ1GD7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1$3]bn3ɚƙɚ1 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3ŚK˷ǥGȳͶoumlɯ14ʟĴ-4=$3ɯ1Gśʷ ampʞć1˦HG3gtG=ampAring 1 Auml1ʆampđɔbȣamp2008ƀ3ʟĴ3]bnccedilǿʫȁK˷ǥG

811 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

ʟĴ1GʦʏˬOtildeş42000ƀ3ʢ 25 GWE 2008ƀǶ3 25 GW1ŀdivideampx 8-1Ϳ2005ƀsup2ěƀƄ3ƀˬOtildeş4˫Kǭǝʯ2008ƀ14ǝamp1 85 GWdivideHampĎȲ402008ƀ14ǝˠɯşszligiquest3 42KͶoumlɯĈGſĹɱ0ƀ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeş1DFʟĴ3ʱȸouml3ʢ 19ͼKAEligʬ-GHG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)2008ƀ3ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4szlig3ͶoumlɯƯ1GǘOacute-GȳͶoumlɯaRZnA˩ɩHFɠķ4$3˴ėĕƖ

Ƞ1G x 8-1 4ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3Đ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71 2012 ƀ3currenɂD7 2030 ƀ

3ɉķɱ`pUKʆG

x 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

ʟĴ4ǥʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3ɶȔOacuteKˬŚ0ƕ)x 8-1 4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴŞɶȔOacute3degJF3mgɏKʆampA3-GSrYƥĽŬ (EIA) 3ʁǴcurrenɂ1DH52012 ƀ1ǝamp1ʢ 10 GW divideHGampˬOtildeş4 2008ƀDFAGʋƄŀdivideG˟gt-G (EIA 2009)ĎȲ41Ǵcurrenɂ1Gƀ3ʃʐ-

ĎȲ40 ś3IʟĴ-4 2009ƀA3timesğʯFǝamp1divideHampͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4 10 GWƍ10

(AWEA2010)ǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ŅĴȣ3ťHamp 2008ƀ1GA3-G ĎȲ41 Yacute1ampD12009ƀ1ɯHampͶoumlɯ3ˬʹş4 10 GWƍ10 (AWEA 2010)

66

4ɉķɱ0Ͷoumlɯ`pU3ccedilǿ1ļ+2030ƀ=-1ʟĴ-˟=HGouml˞3 20KͶoumlɯ-Ʉamp-GG (DOE 2008)3ʃʐ3LJŚ1DH520Pbn1Gamp14Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 305 GWƛ˞10GD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Ĝ˩Ϳ=amp3ʃʐ-42018ƀ=-1ƀˬOtildeşʢ 16 GW1ŀdivideGLJŚG Ugrave 8-1 4ʟĴ1GĐD7notƔcurrenɂHGʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 8-2 4Đ

D7notƔcurrenɂHGƀŨTHORNşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

25 26 43 47 64 68 92 117 169 255 595 251

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

Ugrave 8-2 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

NA 01 17 04 17 04 24 25 52 86 103 16

ȳ NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

812s_CcedilN3N9A

ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ3ampGĔTHORNɅ4oumlłaumlɣė˃SrYźľ˯ǥ (REC) -Gouml3ʪȽEgraveOacute REC3ł4ĸĻźľ$3reg3Ǽacute1DFaRZnȢ1ɮ0)G ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ4Ǖƃ3ʌiacute3UacuteLjʹ1D)ǓEHG2008 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ

ƴ˗143UacuteLjʹPy˺Ǚɣɤʌͳdž PTCͿ ɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČɥė˃-)amp (Schwabe et al 2009)

PTC4 2004ƀ=-1AgraveƄɄǴ1ampH3ľĜAǭǝHamp2000ƀE 2004ƀ=-1Aɯņ1EumlHamp2004ƀsup24 PTCżǨɥ-GD10)ampamp2005ƀE 2009ƀ1ʟĴ3ƀŨTHORNş4˫ɱ1ŀdivideamp (AWEA 2010) Ǖƃ3Ǖʘȿʌ4$3ť0Gaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗1˞0ʪȽɱEacuteɲKAampEGɠķ

EgraveOacute1ļ+ͶoumlɯaRZn14PTC divideUgraveČ3sect3Eacuteɲ1DFļɆaRZn3ˬʹ]bn3 35KG˟gt-G (Bolinger 2010)ľĜ1D)4PTCdivideUgraveČ3˜Ĝɱ0ʪȽucircȁouml3ł REC3ĔTHORN1ʗ0GG4$HKĮG10G (Harper et al 2007)ĎȲ42

82 Ecircz 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ƿʛ-42008 ƀ3ʟĴ1Gdeg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKGǷĽġǮ3reg3Ĵ3ȣ3ampʟĴ3ſĹɱG4deg˘ɱ0aRZn3ɚƙKsup21˷ǥGraquoȜʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3aR

Zn]bnɚƙ4ĸĻ1D)ɮ0FˬOtildeşAņ

ĎȲ42 H4Ͷoumlɯ3oumlȥǛĸUcirc3 RECEgraveȉ)ampĸĻ1D)ɮ0GǘŅ3˞į1ŷęHG

67

821 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ1G3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ſĹˬOtildeş4 1998Έ1999ƀ3ʢ 35 MWE 2007ƀ3 120 MW

=-F2008ƀ14 83 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ1ˬʹHampͶ3Śȉş4 05 MWǵɄE 3 MW=-F2008ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn-4ſĹ 167 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ3ǰAˊɱ0Ͷ4Śȉaeligouml 15 MWgɷƑ 77 mtz 80 m (GE2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) -G

(b) BL0+Ouml ͶɅ34aRZn1D)ņ1ɮ0)Gszligiquestɱ14ʟĴ-4ɡƦɱ0Ͷȯ10)G

ʟĴ3aRZn3szligːǨ4ʢ 1800Έ4400 ǨŃuumlņ2008 ƀ14şdivideſĹ 3066 ǨˤŤHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ43szligːǨ3LJŚOacute4 2007ƀ1ˬʹH 2008ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+A3-ʟĴszligiquest3ͶɅ3ɉķƟK|b1ampA3-40ɏ1ɫƧ-

G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn4ƀɼś1ŀdivideG2008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZ

n14Ʒ]bn4ǰfrac12ʢ 1000kW1400okWͿE 1800kW2500okWͿƍ=-FşdivideſĹ4 1378kW19195okWͿ-G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ44

Ľġ1DH5Ͷ3ĕƊEgraveȉAƀǤtimesğ1)amp2008 ƀ3˕Ċȗ0E71$H1sup1ǪȥƔ1DG˞frac123Ɛ-Ͷ3EgraveȉD7AEligʬ3frac12ɣ G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009 Bolinger 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ14ijŚŃuuml3ǞĠ=H(E-˘ADş|b3]bn

kWͿ14Igraveɤʌ$3reg3ǟˬ]bnˬOtildeordfnjǔŃouml|b3ĸdegʗĠ=HGʟĴ-eumlɥė˃03ʰƾ3mg4EHG3ampǷĽġǮ1ʆʰƾ4LJŚOacute1

ˁĕFʫȁʆĨGD1ǨǴūǣ3ĦordfnjKĠampʰƾĽġHampmg1ăccedilēǧH

0ė˃ƟGE1notƔ4Ͷ3ʽǹĀBIgrave˯Ǵ3ʨpound1DFʰƾ3LJŚOacuteǤGė

˃ƟG 2000ƀdeg1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯaRZn1Wiser Bolinger4 2000Έ2008ƀ3şdivideſĹ

ʰƾK 58MW80oMWͿ˟L-G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009) raquo3ʰƾ14ˊɱ1ɤʌĠ=H03]bnKĠGamp1Wiser Bolinger 3

LJŚOacute1ƀſĹ 50kW70okWͿ3ɤʌ3LJŚǓƱͳĎȲ45divideʙHGɤʌKĠamp

ʰƾʱͳ4Ńuuml-˘5 74MWh103oMWhͿijŚ-4ƀ 226kW314okWͿ-GĎȲ46ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3ʃʐ-42010ƀ=-3ʰƾKʢ 69MWh96oMWhͿBBfrac12˟ʏA)G (DOE 2008)ĎȲ47

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯɯaRZn3˺-4ˇŹ3otildeĜKaRZn|

b3OumlKlteampˇŹ3otildeĜ0)G34114ȞĘɱ1ɣɤʌdžǜʯɱ1˖JHampamp-GOuml1DG˺4ͶoumlɯaRZn3˺ǴKƊ=amp

˜1Gė˃ƟFE14ʪȽɱEgraveOacute3G PTCǴKŗH00GƠHG (Harper et al 2007) Ouml1DG˺KŪ0GǞğƟɣ amp34aRZnɯi`blSrYD

7Ǩ14ɢĿ˞ʥKĠͿ3aeligouml3˃ouml13KʰƾGKdzLamp-$3ampSrYŋʢǛ

ĎȲ43 ˬOtildeeumlɥɞ 35ͼ1ļ+ ĎȲ44 ]bn4szlig 2008ƀƄ3D7o-˘ʆ2008ƀ 12DZ 31ǡsup23onjʙ1ɥampɐǯn4 1

139o (Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ45 NREL3atildemg|bELJŚampɤʌǓƱͳ3ſĹ ĎȲ46 2008ƀ3ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71szligːǨTHORNoumlsup3Ś1ļ+ ĎȲ47 ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71 2008ƀƄ3szligːǨTHORNoumlLJŚOacute1ļ+ 2008ƀo1ŃnjampLJŚOacute

68

1ijŚG40)ampE-GʟĴ3Ouml3ư4ż`bl3szligaeligouml1ťSrYŋʢEgraveȉ

Kbrvbarntilde1ȪŚK˞ȨG (Cory and Schwabe 2009)E14 2008ƀƔĄ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ouml1DG˺4Ĵ˕źľ3˕ȴuumlbZĮ3amp˕Ċȗ3ntildeȣ˒İ10

)G (Schwabe et al 2009) mccedilǿ-4 100ͼǷƷKsup3ŚG3˺4 2008 ƀ1ʟĴ1ǃregɱ1-40ʸF

˖JHampȷń-4$Hˊɱ-40)ampͿmĀccedilǿ-42008ƀ1ƛ˞HampˇŹǷeumlɲɞK 75ͼsup3ŚG(Chadbourne and Parke 2009)3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ42008ƀ 10DZ3˕Ċȗ$31 100Έ200`bPnĽġHGǷ1DG˺]bnņŽ1ŀdivideampͿ3ƐKĖamp1ɫƧ-G (Chadbourne and Parke 2009 Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

(f) s_CcedilN3N9A ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3˞0ĔTHORNɅ41ͿǴŋʢG4źľ|b3Egraveȉ1ļ+oumlD

7aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3ł2Ϳɣɤʌdž3žĀ3ͿɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3dividełČ3 3ʍ͵-GʟĴ-4ouml RECł1DGĔTHORNĸĻD7źľ1D)˒ɮ0)Gouml14ˠiacuteHGH0REC14ˇɯɱaumlɣė˃SrYotildeƎʻyacuteKŗGͿmccedilǿ-4ĹʗdivideſĹͶoumlɯEgraveȉ3LJŚOacute4 ǴɱŋʢEgraveȉouml REC3ǞKĠͿčźľEgraveȉouml3gtͿ1 RECKecircdivideampEgraveȉ3Oacute10Gsup3ŚGĎȲ482008ƀ3ͶoumlɯEgraveȉ3ſĹ4ʢ 419MWh582 oMWhͿLJŚHGĎȲ49Py˺Ǚɣɤʌdž42008 ƀ14ʢ 151 MWh210oMWhͿHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)Ś3Ƿ]bn3divideUgraveČ4 6ƀ˩ɩ-˖JHm-4 1Έ6ƀɶ1$HH 20ͼ32ͼ192ͼ115ͼ115ͼ3otildeĜ-UgraveČHGĎȲ50

(g) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3mĀccedilǿ-4==0mgfbKɥampɚ1eumlɥė˃0agraveɱǛKUacuteYacuteamp

1ʆampszlig3mgfb3bnKǷʒ3đʾǚɝ1ʆaRZn3ɚƙaRZn3Ɵ˃

Ʒ]bnʰƾ)ampŃǘ14Wiser and Bolinger 20093ecirc˘1E1˳˷ǥG

822 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

ɠķ=-3IʟĴ-4ĩɥˠȕ3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥAring40ƈˬ3aRZnA

0ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3Ľġ-4= 2012Έ2018ƀ1ĩɥȳͶoumlɯ3ɯaRZnȶȦĻƴ˗KɥǾȷųȫ-ɱ1˖JHG10GǴƒHGđʾ3amp-4currenƦHGȳ

ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKʆampʟĴ-ɥHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn4=œķ0

ampHE3LJŚOacute4 LCOEmccedilǿ1Ġ0

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ3ȳͶ4|b3aRZnDFAņˠȕ0A310FDFˍō0ͶȯKeumlɥamp

ė˃10GGAring5^idjkŵ-ȏ˪HGCape WindȳͶoumlɯaRZn-4Ͷ3^PcK 36 MWGɯ˘0Hamp (Cape Wind 2010)szligːǨ3ʜı4 3000ǨEʢ4800ǨLJŚHG (DOE 2008)

(b) ccedil-1 ȳͶoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4Ńuumlņ2000 ƀdegĄ5E4ğtimesğ1GʟĴȚŵ-NjȊH

GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn13ƀ3˺Ȇ1DH5Ʒ]bn4ʢ 3100 kW

ĎȲ48 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3 43ͼ3aRZnƯDzʿ4GʋƄ3ĩȐbZK10G=amp

oumllO[ƺƎʿA3bZKė˃ƟGHE3ƺƎʿ4 2008ƀ1ͶoumlɯˬOtildeşKǝamp17ͼTHORNamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)3ccedilǿ-42008ƀ3ǝˠͶoumlɯ3 50ͼKźľ|b3Egraveȉ0J(ĩȐEgraveȉͿȟF3 50ͼKǴɱŋʢEgraveȉsup3ŚG

ĎȲ49 2008ƀ3Egraveȉ1Gsup23sup3Ś4Wiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+A3-sup23Fsup3ŚG(1)ǴɱͶoumlɯŋʢEgraveȉoumlRECͿ= 515oMWh(2)čłbjnźľEgraveȉ =5oMWh(3)aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ = 5oMWh

ĎȲ50 3UgraveČ˩ɩ4ƀĄ53ƫAring1ļ+A3-2008ƀ 2009ƀ1eumlɥė˃)amp 50ͼĽŌUgraveČ4ʾƬ0

69

4300 okWͿ-H4notƔǘƀ1ƈˬcurrenŚHGaRZn1GOacute-GĎȲ51H1ť

US Offshore Wind Collaborative-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn4 3300kW4600okWͿ10GcurrenɂG (USOWC 2009)

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn=ɥH0ampʰƾ3currenƦ4˒ʄśƟG

ɯ˘HGmg40ʟĴȚŵ-NjȊHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ1G

ǰ3˟ʏF1DH5ʱ]bn4ʢ 137MWh19oMWhͿ10GĎȲ52

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯ3ɯD7ɥ1bZ˟=HF=ampɯBɥ3ʪA0amp

Ǝeacute3(4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bnaRZnDFA4G10GcurrenƦ

HGȳͶoumlaRZn3˺-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3cedilʭɱ0ƷưȠ0J(Igrave

middotʇͿ-40bZ˭şƄ3ƷưȠ0J(Ȥ3ˇŹǷͿeumlɥHGƝJHGAring5Ȥ

3ˇŹǷƷ1ƛ˞HGeumlɲɞ4ś˯Gƴ˗1 25Έ350GcurrenƦHG (Justice 2010)=ampʟǕƃ4ĩɥD7ǝɱaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗3$Hͳ-0Ouml1DGǷ˺KǓǎ

Gamp3˕OgraveTHORNIgrave˯KNjAEligG(EAȳƴ˗1ɥ-Gė˃ƟAGͿraquoɠ˖Ȱ-4

˕Igrave˯˩ɩ3˺3eumlɥė˃Ɵ0E71ɧ˻ʿ3ȉEHG (DOE 2010) ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɥė˃0|ŵ|3PdlOz4ȳͶoumlɯaRZ

n1Aeumlɥ-Gsup3ŚHGǕƃ3PdlOz14˫3 PTCɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČĠ=HGɚ1ǾȷųȫcopyņɃĸĻ3ŵ4ě3ʚĂ1GȳͶoumlɯaRZnKEuml

Gamp3==0ǞȰKeumlɥHE3aRZnKŨG (USOWC 2009)

(e) Q54Q1 ȳͶoumlɯ3ɚƙ1G˞0mgɅ4ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution

to US Electricity SupplyrdquoĽġǮ (DOE 2008)US Offshore Wind Collaborative3US Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo0E71ʟĴ3ȳͶoumlɯ1Gěʍ3Ľɯ˘ʗ-GraquoǰƔ3A314ȲƧƛ˞-G

Ugrave 8-3 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ53

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ54 ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 165 167 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ͷļǘ ļ 73 50 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ɯĎȲ55 szligːǨ 2891 3066 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1241 (1725) 1378 (1915) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʰƾ ijŚͿĎȲ56 eurokW ($kW) 50 (70) 50 (70) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʰƾ ŃuumlͿĎȲ57

euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (80) 58 (80) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

$3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆWiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ51 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ52 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ53 Yacute1ampD1]bn4szlig 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆ ĎȲ54 3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙ4ntildeʛ1ʆGȳͶoumlɯ4ʟĴ3 LCOEccedilǿ14Ġ0 ĎȲ55 eumlɥɞ 2007ƀ 33ͼ2008ƀ 35ͼsup3ŚG (Wiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) ĎȲ56 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampş|b3ʰƾ4 2007ƀ 2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG ĎȲ57 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampɯouml|b3ʰƾ42007ƀ2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG

70

(f) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 8-38-5 4ș1G LCOE ccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3sup3ŚKʆG]bn3sup3Ś4HA 2007 ƀ

2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1GA3-2008ƀƄ3o-˘GmD7ǞȰ3˳˷ǥ4Aring 1AumlKđɔHamp

Ugrave 8-4 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 100 100 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash WACC ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

Ǵ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ȰlaquoʌɞĎȲ58 ͼ 389 389 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FXnĎȲ59 $US 139 139 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆChadbourne and Parke 2009 Harper et al 2007 Schwabe et al 2009

Ugrave 8-5 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

oumlźľEgraveȉĎȲ60 euroMWh ($MWh) 382 (531) 419 (582) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

źľEgraveȉ˯ǥĎȲ61 euroMWh ($MWh)

˫1 Ġ=HG

˫1 Ġ=HG ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FITǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml |bͿĎȲ62

euroMWh ($MWh) 144 (200) 151 (210) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ 10 10 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 6 6 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆHarper et al 2007 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ58 LJŚHampǕƃŵǕƃ3ʌɞ4$HH 35ͼ 6ͼ-Gɏ1ɫƧ (Harper et al 2007)ŵʌ4ĔTHORNEdž

HGamp˜Ĝśucircʌɞ4 389ͼ-G ĎȲ59 szlig3]bn4 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆGamp2007ƀA 2008ƀA 2008ƀǶ3ɐǯnKɥamp

(Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ60 2007ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3EgraveȉˬŚ1Gsup3ŚAWiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+˥amp ĎȲ61 aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3LJŚͳKouml3źľEgraveȉ3˩ʙ1ĠG ĎȲ62 PTCnjʙOacute4 13frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORN

71

823 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯTHORNoumlvgKɥ2007 ƀ 2008 ƀ3 LCOE K˩ʙamp2008 ƀ3ʟĴ LCOE2008

ƀ3ʟĴ3sup3ŚKszligAumlɥͿKđɔb2008 ƀ3đɔb3szligsup3ŚKAumlɥͿȣamp$3ʫȁ4sup23F-G Ĵecirc3ěTHORNoumlŃǘKě3đɔb3sup3ŚEʟĴ3sup3Ś9ŀccedilɱ1degTHORNđɔbʟĴ3 LCOE

3Ÿɮ93ěŃǘ3ƐKLJŚ-GD1ampʟĴ3 LCOE 4 3 MWh4 oMWhͿ-đɔb3 LCOEDFAfrac12x 8-2đɔͿ

x 8-2 EcirczrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup363

(b) BL0+dj ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4ſĹˍō0Ͷȯ3ơƣKĖG-G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ|b3

aRZn-4ſĹ 3066 Ǩ3szligːǨǴƒHGđɔb-4 2628 ǨͿʟĴ-4aRZn3aeligouml0G LCOEđɔbDFAʢ 8MWh11oMWhͿfrac120G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAʢ 72 kW100o kWͿfrac120)G

2008ƀ3ſĹƷ]bn4đɔb 1449kW2029okWͿ-G31ťʟĴ-4 1378kW19195okWͿ-GǑĐ]bnͶoumlɯˬOtilde3ǑĐ]bnaRZn^Pn3ƘUcirc]bnĠ=HGͿ4szliggt3Ʒ]bn1Ġ=HGsup3ŚHGƕ)ʟĴ-4Ʒ]bnfrac12

G1HLCOEđɔbDFAʢ 2MWh3oMWhͿfrac120G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3˺]bn4ˇŹǷ|amp2008ƀ4 100ͼͿ=ampđɔb-4

Ouml1DG˺KɥGampđɔbDFA0)G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯaRZn3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ75ͼͿ4đɔb3Oumleumlɲɞ55ͼͿDFA 200|`bPn0)G ʟĴ-4ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 2007 ƀE 2008 ƀ1ŀdivideampH4ǕĊȗ1DFƕǽ3ǷƷŞ

ĎȲ63 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

72

KŊ)ampamp-G (Schwabe et al 2009)H4=ampư0Egraveȉ3frac34Ŗ)ampreg3ʊʌdžƷAĝȓ3ơƣKƖEHGD1GʟĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY3ʌdžǕʘ3Ɵ1DGA3-3Ǖʘ1DF 2007ƀ1ʢ 6ͼ3eumlɲNjAEligHHȇƉƷeumlɲɞ3KŚG10)amp (Chadbourne and Parke 2007)ʟĴ3˺]bn0GʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 8MWh11oMWhͿ0G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAfrac120)Gʰƾ4ijŚG4Ńuuml-˘-

G3ampđɔb3ȣ-4ŃuumlǼacute-˘ampnjʙćǛ3LJŚOacuteampʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJ

Śʱͳ4 7MWh10oMWhͿđɔb3 13MWh18oMWhͿK4G1Į)ampraquoĽġ1DH5ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯɤȐ4ʰƾʚɡ]bn3˟ʏF1G˞˹Ͳ1ɠķAɷFĽ

ġHampmg4Ǩřszlig-Gamp3LJŚOacute4ƪ1˥Gƛ˞G =ampʰƾ4aRZn3ˠȕũ0G1Hfrac12G˯ƻAG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

HAʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJŚͳđɔbȣfrac120)G3į-GʟĴ3aR

Zn3ˠȕ4đɔbDFAņampͿ=ampʟĴ3ʰƾ4ǝˠaRZn14=DzucircIgrave

˯Ǵatilde-Gamp1ʵĥHGė˃ƟGʟĴ3ʰƾfrac120GʟĴ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFAʢ 6MWh8oMWhͿfrac120G

(f) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4Ƿ]bn˺]bnG4szliggt3ʰƾ1Ġ=HGƦŚHGamp

ʟĴ3ccedilǿ-4ecircmĀ0reg3]bn14ʡʭɥʿ1DGfrac12ĶPob (LVRT) ˞acuteG4ɑucircouml]bnʗGN`^wbǛ4ż4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɷDž˹

HG40

(g) uumljfrac14divideWocirceumlCcediloslash Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ]bn4đɔbDFA0)GHE3Ǖʘ1

41ͿȰlaquoʌɞ2ͿȰlaquo˹ʌƯƖE3eumlőǓƱdžĠ=HGʟĴ3DzucircȰlaquoʌɞ389Ϳ4đɔb30ͿDFA$3amp LCOE0)GE1Ƿ1DG 100˺K˟L-GampʟĴ3 LCOE ˹ʌƯƖ3eumlőǓƱdž1D)ȿͳHG40ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFAʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ0)G

824 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj3˩ʙ1DFʟĴ3ĔTHORNŃǘouml RECͿ3OacuteKͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘȣGyacuteYj4=ĔTHORNǕʘAͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘKĠ

1˩ʙș1ĔTHORNŃǘ3gtKĠauml˩ʙGǰƔ1auml7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘKĠ˩

ʙG3ŀccedilsup3Ś1DFͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘ1ťGĔTHORN3ɸťɱEgraveOacuteKǥE1amp x 8-34ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘĔTHORN3ŃǘKȣHE 23D1ʟĴ3 LCOE

KȒƭGKʆampA3-G2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3 LCOEʢ 41MWh57oMWhͿ4ĔTHORNɅouml REC3łͿ-JHGʢ 24MWh33oMWhͿ4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHGPTCUgraveČ˩ɩ3divideͿotildeĜ-˘0EʟĴ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 24ĔTHORN-ȟF3 3ccedil3 14ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHG

73

x 8-3 Ecirczs_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup364

825 aringmH7B

ʟĴ3mĀccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash1 MWhndash1 oMWhͿ-G3EʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4aRZnɯ1ƛ˞HGyacute˞acuteKɄamp31ăccedil0Xj`

yKĔTHORND7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOzȉGľĜͿEƖG10G34

PTCżǨDzucirc-)amp 2005Έ2009ƀ3ƀͶoumlˬOtildeş3ʯɱ˫EAǥE-GH41ƀŨTHORNş4 PCT]bnɑucirc10)ampǨ1˒ȿŪG (AWEA2009)ĎȲ65

83 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+

ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ƀƞ1ƼņGH4Ͷȯż1ˍō-]bnȣɱfrac12ĔTHORN

Ʌăccedil1F=ampľĜ1D)4Dzɲ0ǕʘPdlOzKeumlɥ-GE-GʟĴ1Gɠķ=

-3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn4HA-śǟHampʟĴeacute0GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯ

EHGʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bn4ˊ1đɔbDFAfrac12H4SrYaeligouml

ņǷ]bnʰƾfrac121DGͶoumlɯ1GǕƃ3ǕʘPdlOzȜ

Ɖ1˴ŚHamp-Ĵatilde3Ņ3szlig-401AͿ3ɯaRZnEumlHG10)amp

E-GĔTHORNǕʘ3PdlOz3ɸiexclucircȁ1DFͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ3yacuteYj4lte10

)G

Ugrave 8-6 EcirczIumlsectpsup366

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

58 (81)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

60 (83)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

ndash1 (ndash1) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ĎȲ64 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ65 x 8-1đɔ ĎȲ66 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

74

rOtildemiddot

AWEA (2010) ldquoUS Wind Energy Industry Breaks All Records Installs Nearly 10000 MW in 2009 Manufacturing

Investment Jobs Still Lagrdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) news release January 26 2010 at httpwwwaweaorgnewsroomreleases01-26- 10_AWEA_Q4_and_Year-End_Report_Releasehtml

AWEA (2009) ldquoAmerican Wind Energy Association Annual Wind Industry Report Year Ending 2008rdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) at httpwwwaweaorgpublicationsreportsAWEA-Annual-Wind-Report-2009pdf

Bolinger M (2010) ldquoRevealing the Hidden Value that the Federal Investment Tax Credit and Treasury Cash Grant Provide to Community Wind Projectsrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL-2909E January 2010 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreportslbnl-2909epdf

Capewind (2010) ldquoCape Wind Signs Agreement to Buy Siemens 36-MW Offshore Wind Turbinesrdquo Cape Wind (Capewind) news release March 31 2010 at httpwwwcapewindorgnews1086htm

Chadbourne and Parke (2009) ldquoTrends in Tax Equity for Renewable Energyrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke January 2009 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication810dde60-3c78-4a9a-9c5d- a5fae8014b4fPresentationPublicationAttachment51fc06c5-1407-48ac-9dff- a605de0f58e1pfn0109pdf

Chadbourne and Parke (2007) ldquoThe Tax Equity Marketrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke April 2007 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication572b04b4- 905e-48e1-8f6b-0f520c4f2615PresentationPublicationAttachment573bdc6c-ff85-4f99-b4d0- 25a845907bccpfn0407pdf

Cory K Schwabe P (2009) ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financing Input Variablesrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL TP-6A2-46671 October 2009 at httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

DOE (2010) ldquoGeneral Loan Guarantee Program Frequently Asked Questionsrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) accessed April 2010 at httpwwwlgprogramenergygovfaq2htm

DOE (2008) ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution to US Electricity Supplyrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2008 at httpwww20percentwindorg

EIA (2009) ldquoAnnual Energy Outlook 2010 Early Release with Projections to 2030rdquo US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration (EIA) website accessed February 2010 at httpwwweiadoegovoiafaeoexcelaeotab_16xls

102Federal Reserve (2010) ldquoHistorical Rates for Euro Areardquo Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System website accessed February 2010 at httpwwwfederalreservegovreleasesh10histdat00_euhtm

GE (2010) ldquo15 MW Wind Turbine Technical Specificationsrdquo GE Energy (GE) website accessed April 2010 at httpwwwgepowercomprod_servproductswind_turbinesen15mwspecshtm

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review amp Comparative Analysisrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports63434pdf

Justice S (2009) ldquoPrivate Financing of Renewable Energy ndash A Guide for Policymakers UNEP Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative Bloomberg New Energy Finance Chatham House December 2009 at httpwwwchathamhouseorgukfiles15542_1209_financeguidepdf

Schwabe P Cory K Newcomb J (2009) ldquoRenewable Energy Project Financing Impacts of the Financial Crisis and Federal Legislationrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory technical report NRELTP-6A2-44930 July 2009 at

75

httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti44930pdf

USOWC (2009) ldquoUS Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo US Offshore Wind Collaborative (USOWC) October 2009 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreports63434pdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2009) ldquo2008 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2009 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports2008-wind-technologiespdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2008) ldquoAnnual Report on US Wind Power Installation Cost and Performance Trends 2007rdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy May 2008 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs43025pdf

76

Uograve AĂsup1agraveUumlaacute

shyocircMQ+Q

BL0+para

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

aRZn3gPn Project title

aRZnĞregĴ3QOo

yMȣGamp AringΆoPk3đɔQOoyM13

aRZn3ʍ͵ Project type

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ʍ͵ A4ȳ

Ͷļǘ Number of wind turbines

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

Ͷʱǘ$EěĴ3ɡ˼

3ſĹɱQOoyMͿ

ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

Śȉaeligouml Rated power

Ͷ 1ļ3Śȉaeligouml ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

gɷƑ Rotor diameter

Ͷ3gɷƑ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

ĖͶʏ Swept area

gͶKĖGszligʏ m2-˘˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

tz Hub height

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ƚĸɏ3ſĹ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽraquotz

3ſĹͶƀɯouml4ɷDž

EcircGͿ tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ

Lond term average wind speed at hub height

tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

Ȝģɯouml Net electricity production

QOoyM3ƀſĹȜ

ģɯouml szligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

ƺʌouml Tax capability

iacute΄ɑiacute ćɜ3aRZn3ľĜ

4ʌiacuteUacuteʘKszligeumlɥ-GͿG4

ˣmiddotʇKƾ3ľĜ4ˣmiddotʇ

Ǝ˲ƀƄ3ʌdžKszligDzucirc1eumlɥ-

GͿ4_Ƹ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4

Ĵʌ΄ʌ3gt1ɥHGŵʌBĸ

Ǟʌ4ńͿ Currency

szlig]bnĔTHORNPdlOz

ʗ3 2007ǫƀ 2008ǫƀ3$HHdeg˘ɱ0ǡ $HH 2007ƀ 12DZ 3ǡ 2008ƀ12DZ 31ǡͿ3ȣ1ļ+1ˬŚ

ijŚƀ]bnćfrac14 Fixed annual costs unit

ijŚʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kW

Ńuumlƀ]bnćfrac14 Variable annual costs unit

ƀʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kWh

ccedil-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ͷ Wind turbine

ͶD7ɯ˙ʹ3Yacute˖Ʒ

]bn ggtzgĖ

oPznPKƿʆGPy

YN~jZb`blxj

i`blzX`blpdt

77

Qa[ɯȗgzoͶ

ɥŃĶĬraraquoļʅG4ʡʭDž

ʯ4Ġ=reg-ƲͿ Ͷ3 Wind turbine transportation

ͶK˛ŶľEaRZ

nɯ^Pn1$1ˬ

ʹ-GD1Gamp3]b

n

Ͷ3aRZn^Pn93Křpound

Gamp1ɥEHG΄n

jZ]bnD7Z3]bnK

Ġ Ͷ3ˬʹ Wind turbine installation

aRZnƈˬǴ3Ͷ

3ˬʹ]bn ƈˬ3Z3]bnKĠ

ũ˩ΆͶ3]bn Sub-total wind turbine cost

Ͷ 3ļsup23]bn3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ļʅ Foundations

QOoyM1ƛ˞0ļʅ

3ʱ]bn ]Zn$3regQOoyM

3ěͶKǓG31ƛ˞0ȒǓȅK

Ġ Ȓatildeʡʭ Internal grid

QOoyM3ŃƯ93

Džʯ1ƛ˞0QOoyM

atilde3ȥʡʭ

QOoyMatilde3szlig3ʳQO

oyM3ŃƯ=-D7ŃƯ

3ʳKĠͿŃƯ1ʡɏDF

ntilde1ʡʭʡŃĶĬGľĜ4$3Ń

ĶĬ=-3szlig3ʳKĠ1șiacuteƗɯ`blKuziacuteƗGamp1ˬʹ

HampiacuteƗ˙ʹͿ3]bnKĠƯDzʿ

D7Ͷ˛brvbarȐʿ1ǖB˿ġKcedilamp

FͶKǒAcirc1DFuumlD7Ocirc

țampFɥʭ˩OacuteKƵǍGamp3

ɴˡiacuteƗ`bl (SCADA)G4QOoyMɴˡ`bl3ˬʹKĠ

ʡʭʡ[jo]o3

Ɇƻ Grid connection grid code compliance

QOoyM3ʡʭʡ1

ƛ˞0ŃĶĬǠœ3oumlʡʭ

-ƛ˞HGȥʡʭ

QOoyMEʡʭ=-3ʳ

0[jo]oɆƻ3amp1ȨE

HGegrave3divideɱ˙ʹĠ=HGQO

oyMʡʭʡŃĶĬKĠ˜ǘ3

ŃƯKDzGľĜʡʭʡŃĶĬ

ʡʭ3ʳ3gtKĠ ʡʭŀƍ Grid reinforcement

˄Ƌ0ʡʭ-4QOoyM

3ʡ3ampʡʭ3reg3ccedil

3ĶʤKG1DF

ʡʭKŀƍGė˃ƟG

Ǡœ3ʡʭ3ŀƍ1ƛ˞0˙ʹ

ŀƍdivideɱiacuteƗ$3reg3macrdivideɱ˙ʹKĠ

Ϳ

ŃƯ Substations and transformer station

ʡʭʡŃĶĬˇiquestD7$H

=-3ĂKĠampQOoy

M3ʡʭatilde1Gszlig3

ŃƯ3]bn

ʡʭ93ʡĸɏ=-ǜĬD7ǜ

ĬKĠŃĶĬ4ĶKǤĶGȥ

ȗĬ-GL3Ͷ4aeligoumlKʡ

ʭĶ1ǤĶGŃĶĬKDzG ũ˩Άȥʡʭ Sub-total electrical netgrid

ȥʡʭ1G˫ 4 ɶ3ũ˩

˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ˴˯ Certification

ʡʭʡG1amp)QO

oyMK˴˯Gamp3]

bn

˴˯Hampˬ˩IJ3]bnD7QOo

yM3ś3ƈˬK3ˬ˩IJȣ

G]bnKĠ ɢĿ˺Ȇ Environmental survey

QOoyM3ɯȠ-

ƛ˞10GɢĿ˺Ȇ3ʱͳH

4ěĴ3ɢĿƐ˰EgraveǮ3acirciquest

ɱ0˞acute1˟G-G

ȩȃ3ė˃ƟɊɇograveʗͿ ͷ|3LJŚ Ǫˤ93ˡˢɱƐ ɣɣəD7ɣƩʡ93ƈˬD7 3Ɛ ɚŚ3ͻ˓˔3ɴˡ `oQyjV3Oslash

Pysup2ń3ɯ]bn

3ũ˩ Non-infrastructure development subtotal

˫3Pysup2ń3aR

Znɯ3˫ 2ɶ3ʱ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

78

ʰƾˬOtilde OampM facilities

ʰƾȐyacute3˖1ƛ˞0

D7ǟˬKǝamp1ƈˬG

]bn

Ͷ3ƈˬ14aRZn3ˀ

ɥƀǘ3ʰƾgzo3

ɏȏ]bnD7ņĺĦ3ordfnj]bn $3reg Miscellaneous

˫3aRZnɯ]bn

1Ġ=H0$3regegrave3

]bn

3ĵĸƯDzʿ93˚Ugrave

ntilde3eumlőǓƱ Interest payment before operation

aRZnŐntilde1ǓƱ

ƛ˞10Geumlő3ʱͳ ż4ƈˬȠ3OumlD7Ͷ3Ͱ

ǓƱ3amp33Ńǘ4 1Έ2ƀatilde3yacuteŃǘ-G3Xj`y

mŐHGɥeacuteƀƄ1

4ntilde-ǓƱ]bnG reg3aRZnɯ]b

n3ũ˩ Sub-total other project development costs

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫frac14ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0

ľĜʱͳ-˘

aRZnƷ]bn3

ʱͳ Total project investment costs

˫ɯɶũ˩3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

q-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǑĐbZjEgraveͳK

Ϳ Decommisioning excl scrap value

ļʅKĠQOoyMK

ĵĸEǑĐG31˞G]

bn

QOoyMD7egrave3Py

ZʗͿ3˥iquestǑĐə

$3regegrave3ƛ˞0Ǖƃ˯ǥǮ3Acircƭ]b

n ĵĸ3ˇɓɛƩ93ĮƘ Returning the land to the natural state

ĵĸ3ɠɛĮƘ3amp3]bn aRZnřpoundamp1ɯɣ

bZjEgraveͳ Scrap value

ǑĐǨ3bZjǺǛ3łČ

EgraveOacute ʳʗaumleumlɥG4bZj

łČ-Gė˃Ɵ3GQOoyM

3ǺǛ ȜģǑĐ]bn Net decommissioning costs

˫ɶ3ʱͳ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

BL0+igraveeacute Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǨszligːǨmO

nKͿ Operational time full load hours excluding derate

szligːǨ4QOoyM

3ſĹƀɯoumlK$3

Śȉaeligouml-ampOacute-G

H4szligːǨ3Ĝ˩-F˩ɩɱ

D7˩ɩń3ʰƾʚɡ3amp3OcircțǨK

ĠszligːǨŅŚamp^P

n1GQOoyM3ɯouml

AŀdivideG szligːǨ3mOn Derate of full load hours

QOoyMʎOslash

0Ǩ ɼȧʗ1DGOcircț3amp3ɯouml

3ǏŊKĠ ȜģǨȜģszligːǨ

Net operational timefull load hours

ǨszligːǨEmO

nKƊampǨ ȜģǨ3Ĝ˩KĠG0J(m

OnKĠGͿ

ˀɥƀǘ Economic life

ƦŚHGaRZn3ˀɥ

ƀǘ3ǴaRZn]

bn3ʱͳKĮĔ0H50

E0Ϳ

AringaRZnKʮʯɥG-

ƦŚHampˀɥƀǘsup21ăccedilʎOslash-

GɛƩ1)ampAaRZn

3ȟœˀɥƀǘ4egraveĠ0 ]bn˩ʙ3amp3˩ɩť

Ǵ Time horizon for cost

LCOE˩ʙ3ť0GǴ _OacuteKTHORNouml0ľĜ4myTn

ˬŚ1DFˀɥƀǘ1ˬŚG

79

calculations

aringm Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ǵ Loan duration

ȽǴ3Ĝ˩ ͰD7eumlőǓƱKĠ

― źľeuml Loan - market interest rate

euml3Oacute43ư1D)

ŃJG OgraveTHORN3otildeĜ-˘]bn

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml3ƖEHG Oumleumlɲɞ Return on debt

Ǵ1ȢƀƖEHG

euml ȢƀƖEHGeuml

ƛ˞HGǷeumlɲɞź

ľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivideʙ

KͿ Required return on equity excl market volatility risk adder

QOoyM3ǷƷŞ

ȨGeumlɲɞ Ƿ1Geumlɲ3otildeĜ

źľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivide

ʙ Market volatility risk adder

ʕyenɱźľ1đdivideǷeumlɲɞ

KGdividebZKƵǍG

KɶɱampA3

źľ1GcurrenƦń3ŃuumlbZKʾƬ

Gamp1divideʙGotildeĜ

ƛ˞HGƷǷ3Ȝ

ģeumlɲɞ Net required return on investment equity

ɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZ

nƷŞ93ǷeumlɲɞǷƷ

ŞȨGźľŃuumlƟ3b

ZKĠͿ

Ƿeumlɲɞźľ3ŃuumlƟKʾƬG

ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKƵǍGamp mZ-ɥė ˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ƿ3otildeĜĸUcircǷ3ƯDz

ȖKͿ Equity share excl local equity ownership

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp1ƻaeligGǷ3otilde

Ĝ

ͶǓƾ˙ʹPyʚɡ˺

ʗ3]bnKamp1ƷGǷ3

ʱͳ

Ƿ3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Total equity share

ĸUcirc3Ƿ3ƯDzȖ0E71ʱ

Ʒ]bn ˺]bnK

amp1ƻaeligGǷ3otildeĜ3

Ĝ˩

ĸUcircD7ĸUcircsup2ń3ƷŞNjAEligamp

Ƿ3ʱͳ

Ouml3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Debt share

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp3Ouml3otildeĜ THORNoumlGǷ3otildeĜ1ļ+˩ʙOacute

aRZn3ʱ]bn 100EǷ3otildeĜKƊampOacuteͿ

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate- municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠǘOacute

4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ȝģʌɞ Net tax rate

ǕƃĸǞŵǕƃ3Ȱlaquoʌ

ɞ3Ĝ˩ -˘ʆǕƃźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

80

shy MQ+Q

oacute-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

˛ȐʿNjAEligGʰƾʚ

ɡ]bn Manufacturer-provided maintenance

eacuteƀƄG4$3Ɣ1divide]

bn0-˛ȐʿNjAEligG

ʰƾʚɡ]bn

3]bn4żQOoyM3ˬʹ

]bn1Ġ=HGampeacuteǴ4e1

0G4-G

atildebgjy1DG˩ɩɱ

ʰƾʚɡ]bn Scheduled maintenance by internal staff

aRZnƯDzʿ3bgjy

1DGŚǴɱ0QOoyM

3ʰƾʚɡ]bn

bgjy1DGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

ń^wbŋʢ External service contracts

reg3˻Ȑʿ1DGŚǴɱ0Q

OoyM3ʰƾʚɡ]b

n

˻brvbarȐʿDGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

]bn Operation costs

QOoyM3ɥ1ƛ˞

0ƀ]bn SCADA KĠQOoyM3ƴ˗ɱɥ3amp3]bn-ʚɡ]bn-40

H14ecirc˷ǥͿǘOacuteȥcurren

ɂ3]bnKĠ ɏȏ Inspections

Ͷɏȏ3amp˻ȐʿK

ˇʇ-A˫3^wb˻

Ȑʿ-A0ľĜͿ

gzo3Ľġ2~4ƀȢͿĦ3ƴ˗ɏȏͶ 1 ļampF 2 ƀȢ1 1 ǡͿKĠɏȏ3ǨȂ4kW |b

-ˬŚ ˩ɩń3Icircɡ Unscheduled repairs

˩ɩń3Icircɡʰƾʚɡ ˙ʹ3ǖŇȥɛȯ$3reg3ńį1DG

ʰƾijŚͿũ˩ OampM costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ OampM costs variable subtotal

˫3Ńuumlʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝͳ-˘ ʚɡ Administration

QOoyM3ʚɡ

D7ɴɽ3]bn ʬƈəˇuumlD7ɗǛͿʗKĠ

Igrave Insurance

QOoyM$33

bZD7$3Ɛ1OtildeG

amp1ǓƱƀIgraveǛ

uumlɤIgraveǏŝUgraveuacuteɍ˚UgraveD7ɢĿ

)ampQOoyM1ɷDžEcirc

Gegrave3Igrave

ʡʭǛ Grid charges

ʡʭ93ʡ0E71ɥKǓ

ǎG31ƛ˞HGƀǛ

_4HKş|b3]bn

G4SrY]bnTHORNouml

G-G ʡʭ3]bnijŚͿ Grid costs fixed

˫3ʡʭǛ

ʡʭ3]bnŃuumlŃuumlͿ Grid costs variable

˫3ʬ˺ʛ]bn

^Pn3 Site lease

QOoyMKˬʹampĵ

ĸ3ƯDzʿ1ǓƱʱͳ Ͷ 1 ļ1macrǓƱľĜAʱͳ-ǓƱľĜAʱ]bn-THORNouml

G ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

aRZnşƀ

kWͿ1ļ+aRZnǓƱƀʌͳ

ͼ|b3ʌ4˫3Z`n-ƀ

șŃuuml30ŃǘTHORNoumlG

1ȲƧ-4ş|b3ʌKʆ

$3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG ȸouml Electricity consumption

ouml3ˇŹȸ ʡʭ3ĝǴD7ɯƯ3uumlʗ3amp

_4HEKş|bG4

SrY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ɢĿɂŚ˰Egraveʗ Environmental measurements evaluations etc

QOoyM3˴ė0E7

1KʰƾG31ƛ˞0ƀ

ɢĿɂŚ˰Egrave

_4HEKş|bG4Sr

Y]bnTHORNoumlG-

G

81

reg3ƀ]bnijŚͿũ

˩ Other annual costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚɢĿɂŚǛ

ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ Other annual costs variable subtotal

˫3oumlȸ]bn

ƀ]bnijŚͿ Annual costs fixed

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ƀ]bnŃuumlͿ Annual costs variable

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘

Ts_-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ƀźľđdivide]bn Annal market participation fee

ʕyenɱoumlźľ1đdivideGamp

3ƀ]bn źľɥʿʡʭɥʿ1ǓƱ

ʬ˺Ǚ]bn Balancing costs

ͶoumlɯKěǨ1oumlʡ

ʭ1DžʯGamp3]bnʱͳ

aeligoumlcurrenɂ1Gś3ŀccedil]

bn

kW]bn4ȜƉ0ʬ˺ǙźľKG43]bnouml3źľ

Egraveȉ1Ġ=HGampccedilG3İ

0ľĜAG_4HE3]bn

Kş|b3]bnG4S

rY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ŋʢ]bnĕƊǛʗͿ Contract costs (transaction fees etc)

ŋʢ3ʰƾ1ƛ˞0ƀǓƱͳ kWh-˘ĕƊǛ

reg3]bn3ʱͳ Subtotal other costs

źľđdivide]bnʬ˺Ǚ]b

nŋʢ]bn3Ĝ˩

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKşǦ1GĽ

Ō kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƟʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źľoumlEgraveȉ Market price electricity

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

ƀſĹźľoumlEgraveȉ kWh

źľ˯ǮEgraveȉ Market price certificates

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ3

ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kWhǕʘ1DFG4źľ|b-ˬŚHGľĜGǘOacute4ecirc

THORNoumlG FITĔTHORN Feed-in tariff revenue

FIT1DGĔTHORN ż4aR

Zn]bn3ǓƱ3amp3ŀ

ccedilǓƱŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞK

ʄIgraveG31Auml ouml3źľEgrave

ȉKĠľĜAG

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐKŐampƀƄ1

ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlHG

reg3ĔTHORN3ʱͳ Subtotal other revenues

˫3reg3ĔTHORN3Ĝ˩

Ccedil ― shyocircocirc

shyocirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ʌƊntildedž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as a before-tax credit

ʌƊntilde

3ʌdž1ťGntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊntilde

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGʌ|b3ntildeƱ˚

ugrave3otildeĜHĝ otildeĜaRZ

n3ʱͳoͿG4ˬOtildeşampF

3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ

82

|b3PdlOz4aRZn1

DGʌƊntilde1ɥHGƕ)aR

Zn1ťEgraveOacuteaRZn3eacute

ƀ3˹ʌͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3

ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜaRZnG

G4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3

ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ

4_Ƹ-Gʌdž4Ĵ

ʌ13gtɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ

|-40Ϳ ʌƊƔdž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave AringΆUgraveČͿ Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as an after-tax deduction (eg depreciation)

ʌƊƔ

3ʌdž1ļ+ntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊƔ

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGYacute˖ʌdžH

ĝ otildeĜaRZn3ʱͳoͿ

G4ˬOtildeşampF3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ|b3Pdl

Oz4aRZn1DGʌƊƔ1ɥ

HG3ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜa

RZnGG4aRZn

ƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-G

ˣmiddotʇKƾ4_Ƹ-G

ʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥHGƕ

)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront cash investment subsidy

aRZnszligiquest1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ aRZnƷ]bnʱͳ1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml-3Ƚė˃ ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKǁGamp mZ-ɥė˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

shyl Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

kW-ʆHGƀʌͳ ȢƀǓƱD7ƀșŃuumlGş

|b3ʌͳ FITĔTHORNAringΆɯouml|b3PdlOzͿ Feed-in tariff revenue (eg production based incentives)

FIT G4ɯouml|b3PdlOz1DGĔTHORN

ż4aRZn3]bnK

31˞ȨHGŀccedilǓƱ1

ŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞKdivideampOacute

ouml3źľEgraveȉKdivideGľĜA

G

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐɱɥKŐampƀƄ

1ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǨCcedilœǛiacuteƄKɥ

GĴoPkʗͿ4ƀ3ǘOacuteAring

$HƀK Ś0

AͿKTHORNoumlG FITǕʘǴ Feed-in tariff policy period

FIT G4ɯ˚ugraveǓƱJHGʱǨ

aRZn1ƦŚHGʪȽɱƕŎǴ

K0ʜı3Ǵɮ0H5 FIT3ǓƱ|Aɮ0)Gė˃Ɵ

83

GFIT ǕʘǴ3Ĝ˩OacuteK1THORNoumlG

ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž Production-based before-tax credits

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b30J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊntilde

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊntilde|

b-aRZn1ɥH

G

aRZn3ʌǓƱntilde1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGɯouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿƕ)aRZn1ťEgraveOacuteņaRZneacuteƀ3˹ʌ

ͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteK

ĖGćɜaRZnGG

4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDz

ucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gt

ɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40

Ϳ ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž3ǕʘǴ Production-based before-tax credit policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHGǴ

3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɯ|b3ʌƊƔdž Production-based after- tax deductions

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b0J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊƔ

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊƔ|

b-aRZn1ɥHG

aRZn3ʌǓƱƔ1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKĖGćɜaRZnGG4

aRZnƯDzʿĝƀƄ3ʌdžKDzucirc

1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥ

HGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ɣɤļɵ3džʌƊƔͿ

ǕʘǴ Production-based after- tax deductions policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHG

Ǵ3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power bonus

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKEumlGamp

3ĽŌ kWh

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƄʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWh

źľEgraveȉ˯Ǯ Market price certificates

źľG4Ǖƃ3Ǖʘ1D)

ˬŚHampQOoyM

3aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ

3ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kW_4ɮ0Gźľ-0J(ěʍ3źľEgraveȉ-Ϳłamp3˯

Ǯ3ȼĜdivideſĹźľEgraveȉKTHORNoumlG

divideUgraveČ Accelerated Depreciation

OtildeĦ3ͳK˺middot˩D

7ʌťʘUgraveČG˩ɩ ěƀƄ3UgraveČͳ4ɤ3ˀɥƀǘ3eacuteǴD

FBBƀ|b-eacuteǴƷʱͳ

3ͼˬŚG UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

3m-4_aRZn3

EgraveOacuteKUgraveČGƀƄ$3UgraveČɞKŚʻ

GșƀƄsup2ȢƀȟͳKUgraveČGǞȰK

ɥGĴ-4_UgraveČ˩ɩEgrave

ͳKdegɡȖ˖Auml1D)˟ʏG

dj

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

yacuteYj Financial gap

aRZn3˺1ƛ˞

HGyacuteYj ʱ]bn˺]bnͿEƛ˞

HGǷeumlɲɞ93Ʒ1ƛ˞0ĔTHORN

PdlOzKƊampOacute ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave Levelized electricity generation cost

QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘ

1QOoyM-ɣɤH

amp kWh3ɠķ3ǡſĹ]bn

szlig3]bnKĠƷaumlƷ

ʰƾͿĔTHORNPdlOz˺]

bnĹʗĀĎEgrave4otildeƊɞͶ3ˀɥƀ

ǘKɥ˩ʙ

• 表紙13
• 要旨13
• 目次13
• 第1章 7ヶ国の風力発電の財務コスト13
• 第2章 デンマーク13
• 第3章 ドイツ13
• 第4章 オランダ13
• 第5章 スペイン13
• 第6章 スウェーデン13
• 第7章 スイス13
• 第8章 米国13
• 付録A 変数および用語解説13

2

13 uumljfrac14divideAElignp[

131 -1UacuteIgrave

Ͷoumlɯ3]bn˞ʥ4ǷƷ]bnʰƾD7˺]bn-GHEě

1ěʍ3]bn˞ʥĠ=HGǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampIuml3]bn˞ʥ4Uograve A1ʆF-G ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ņͳ3ǷƷKƛ˞$3Ȓƭ˞ʥ4Ͷ-0ŅʍŅȓ-G

Ugrave 1-1 1ʆD1Ʒʱͳ3ʢ 75Ͷ3]bn-FȟF4˘1=ampD1ʡʭʡļʅˬʹ0E71ƈˬ1G]bn-GHE3]bn4oPkmZbPˏĴ33m

g1ļ+GǑĐ]bn4aRZnŐǨ1ʄIgrave3]bnKƎeacute3ǷƷ1ĠG

KʻyacutemacrGĴAG

Ugrave 1-1 uumljfrac14divideBL0+ccedilyenccedil-1UacuteIgrave

ʱ]bn1ĈGotildeĜͿ reg3]bn1żĈGotildeĜͿ ͶŶľɀͿ

ʡʭʡ ļʅ

ȥˬOtilde ĵĸ

yacute]bn ƈˬ

]^gn

68-84 2-10 1-9 1-9 1-5 1-5 1-5 1-3

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ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

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KʆampA3-GͶoumlɯaRZn3ǰʨɱɣɤə4ouml-GampLCOEKƀɯouml-ĹʗĀGƛ˞Gɯouml4Ͷ3əɡɱɚƙD7ɚŚ3aRZn^Pn3ͶɅ3ɚƙ1ŷęHG

132 s_N3N9A

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3

x 1-1 uumljfrac14divide-1 ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

133 icirc

Ͷoumlɯ1Gɶ3Ņ=žĀHEHE4ĔTHORNB]bn3˰Egrave1Ġ0

HE4ɯƴ˗3oacuteșɱƐ1GńƟG4ʇmiddotɱɥ-Gˊ1aumlɣė˃SrY3ƴ˗4

ƕǽĺɅ3ƴ˗1ȣńƟ3Ɛż1Ū0IEA3 ldquoRenewable Energy Costs and Benefits for Society (RECaBS)rdquo aRZn-4ǥƟ3ǞȰKɥƕǽĺɅaumlɣė˃SrYɅKȣɯ3]bnEacuteɲKLJŚG (RECaBs 2007)ReCABS3ǞȰ˼1DH53ccedilǿ14ș3 53ńƟĠ=HG

ȥNtildeŃuumlɁŜucircȁWbɚ1 CO2D7 CH4Ϳ reg3ņȥȩȃɅSOxNOxD7ʠőͿ ʡʭʡoumlPy93divide]bn oumlʬ˺ǙͶ3şZajnˮȲ 41DGȿͳʗͿ

ɗǛAEligʬ3ŘszligIgraveɗǛTHORN3ĴatildeɅ-3degɥ HE3ńƟ1divideͶoumlɯ4ɗǛ3ȸB$H1sup1ɗǛEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ŷęH0Ͷoumlɯƴ˗

93ƷbZ4ĀʂɗǛ1DGɯƴ˗3bZyMPɮ0GHEszlig3ɚƙ1DFͶoumlɯ

ƴ˗reg3ɯƴ˗3EgraveOacuteNjȊ1G˞0ɚƙɣ GǷʃʐ4$3ȣ˰EgraveK˱gtampA3-

40

134 LCOEGKaacute

UhSrYʃʐdg (ECN) AcircƭampXj`ym4ǷaRZn1G

ˮȲ 4 şZajn (capacity credit) ʡʭŘŚƄ1ƤƐK0ʜı-Ͷoumlɯ1D)ƕǽĺɅHʹnj

EHGKʆȣɞAring5 şZajn 303ľĜǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ 1 GW1ťƕǽĺɅK 03GWȿEG-GşZajn1G˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

4

LCOEyacuteYj (FG) 3˟ʏF3ļɵ0)G3 ECNm4otildeƊXj`ym-Ǝeacute4Uh1Gaumlɣė˃SrY3˚ugrave3ɯAEligʬĽŌK˩ʙGamp1AcircƭHampA3

-Gɠķ ECN43mKɥUhǕƃ1ěʍaumlɣė˃SrYƸ˂3ɣɤ]bnK3ʋƄ1ugrave˧GIEAWind Task26KɯŮ-đdivide˽Ĵ3]bnȒK˟ʏAGamp3mKIcircȜƼņͶoumlɯ3]bnKȄ˳ʧ1˩ʙ-Gkamp3mKȒƭ

G34ɯƯ^PcǨszligːǨˀɥƀǘƷ]bnʰƾaRZn3˺

3ɚƙ)ampmĀ3amp3vg0E71Ɓʜ0vg-GěĴD7==0ˠ

iacuteiquestiacute13mKɥ-$3ȗ˃ŅɥƟǔīHGAring5Xj`y

mKǔ˨ͶoumlɯaRZn3ěˠiacuteiquestiacute1ƕ==0ƴ˗ɱyacuteɱvg1ɥ-

GD1amp3D0Ȅ0m4Ʒ]bnʱͳ3˩ʙ3gt0Eěʍ3ɥ3ɚƙByacuteưȠ

0E71ĴQOoyM3PdlOzK˷ǥG-˞-G

135 GK|yenfrac12-N3B

Xj`ybjo`nKɥͶoumlɯ3]bnK˳ʧ1˩ʙG$3szligvgKUograve A1ʆ3bjo`nm4 6 3Z`n-ȒƭHǰeacute3 3 3Z`n4ɚŚ3Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3˩ʙ1ƛ˞0˳ʧƥĽKNjAEligGamp3A3-G ǰeacute3Z`n4ƀșŃuuml3013ŃǘKŚGA3-GH14aRZn3ɚƙƷ]b

nʱͳǑĐ]bnʱͳĎȲ2szligːǨ1ɔEampǨ]bn˩ʙ3˩ɩťǴĠ=HGƷ]b

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ampěʍ3yacuteŃǘKŚG-GE13Xj`ym4ĴBŵ3ȰlaquoʌKʾƬampA

3-G ƀșŃuuml13Z`n14ʰƾĸdegʡʭ]bn)ampƀijŚŃuuml-ȒƭHG

ěʍɶĠ=HFHEK˳ccedil͵ěĴ-ȣ-GD1G=amp-ȥǛBʧ

ȪŚ˞įŋʢ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnʗͿKŚʻG ʖ 33Z`nǕʘ13-4ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT)ʌͳdž$3reg3PdlOzKȏ˪G

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13D7LCOEXj`y13Z`n-˖

136 LCOE FGYacuteEgrave

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3Ȃʩgtatilde1G LCOE 3˩ʙOacute4ƷǓaelig3ƾccedilotildeĜszligǴ3otildeƊʌƊƔXj`yʱͳKeȜģɠķEgraveOacute (NPV) G31ƛ˞0ɣɤCcedilœeumlɲŚʻHGLCOE3˩ʙ-4ɯG4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɚecirc1ɥHGPdlOzE3ĔTHORN3Xj`yKʾƬ0

ECN3 LCOE˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

ĎȲ2 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4ǑĐ]bnKaRZnƈʝǴ1ʄIgraveKĴʻyacutemacrGľĜ3gt3]b

nKĠamp ĎȲ3 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4szlig3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKɑiacute13sup3Śamp=Feumlɥė˃0szlig3ȿʌ3ơƣKřszlig1ĖEH

GD0Xj`yăccedil1œķG-G

5

H41ɠķ FG3˩ʙ-4Ͷoumlɯ1ijDz3ɯɱPdlOz3Xj`yfynYacute˖Ʒʌļɵ3ƷugraveƭʗͿKʾƬG3Śʻ1ļ+brvbarś FG1D)ěĴ3 LCOEɯ0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ɱPdlOz1DFśɠHampeumlɲ3K˘G

ECNm3 FG˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

˫3D1ʌƊƔ3ƀXj`y14ouml3łĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3˚ugraveƱƮD7P

dlOzƀʰƾȽeumlƢǓƱ0E71yacuteľ3ȿEgraveUgraveČeumlődž3ʌƊƔͳ

E3Xj`yĠ=HG x 1-24LCOEƖEHampĔTHORNoumlźľĔTHORNFITAEligʬĽŌʗͿPdlOzD7yacuteYj

3EcircKʆampA3-G3IJ1ʆD1FGOacuteȜ3ľĜ4aRZnɯʿ3 LCOEK31ƛ˞0ĔTHORNƖEH0)ampƧģ-F3ľĜ4 LCOE KG3ăccedil0ĔTHORNƖEHampKʆĨG

x 1minus2 aringmH7Bmacrs_N3N9AampgtKQ-1Agravedeg

ʌƊƔ3Xj`yt

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ ndash

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

FG =

1 ndash ʌɞ times ƀʰƾ t ndash ʌɞ times euml t + ʌyacute3ȿEgraveUgraveČ t

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ +

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

LCOE =

6

14 rkzoumlRuumljfrac14divide-1

șʛ-4 Ĵ3aRZn3ǎugraveKGĴatildeƷŞ1)3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKđdivideamp 7Ĵ3Ĵecirc1ʆH14 ECN3mǞȰ˼KɥG˞0Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3ŃǘKŅĴ-ȣG1DFěĴ3ccedilFͶoumlɯaRZn3|bP]bnǥʄ10Geumlɥ

ė˃0mgEHGampȳͶoumlɯ3]bn4˳ʆ0ĽġHamp]bnmg3

Ūǘ3^KĠG

15 vQ5otildeordm

3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnƟ˃0E71yacutemgszligiquest3ȜʄDzucircƟKaeligǽGF˯ǥD

ampmgfb4ŅʍŅȓ-FĽġHampmg34ĴD7mgfb1DFɮ0)G

Aring5ĽġHamp]bn3mg42008 ƀ3ͳ-˘ampɠķEgraveȉK˘G3ŚEgraveȉǥʄ-0brvbarAringAG=ampsup21ǀGvgA2008 ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlaRZnK˘amp3A3-Gś14 2008ƀntilde1ɯȲHǓƱJHampbrvbarAringKĠGė˃ƟGmgEHGampampɉķɱ0ɿɹKIcircȜG-0)ampE1 IEA Task264ěĴ3deg˘ɱ013aRZnK˘KƧIJampA3-GͶoumlɯ3ś3]bn4^PnaRZn1D)ɮ0G

ƕ)sup23mg4ěĴ3szligˊɱɛȯ˷ǥ3amp3gt1ʆampA3-3ɏ1ɫƧ-G

16 tzGKLCOErmicroQ1

Ͷoumlɯ3Ĵecirc3]bnļǷampaRZn-4đɔb13Ĥ8ͿȣHG

3đɔb4ěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3deg˘ɱ0Ȓƭ˞ʥK˘A3-ƴ˗ɱvgaRZn3ɚƙƟ

˃Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bnʰƾʗͿyacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞ

ǴĴ3ʌɞʗͿ3ǞĠ=HGđɔb-4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘKńG=ampͶoumlɯ

KǓǎGĕFʩgt4Ĵ1D)ɮ0GampͶoumlɯǕʘBPdlOzAĠ0ƕ)đɔ

b-4 LCOE3˩ʙʫȁ3gtK˘ʆG Ĵecirc3ƴ˗ɱvgKUgrave 1-21ʆĎȲ4đɔb-43ěvgKszlig3Ĵ1Ga

RZn3ˬOtildeş3divideſĹ˩ʙGđɔb3ƴ˗ɱvg3OacuteA3˘1ʆF

2008 ƀ3ˬOtildeşȣɱņ)ampbQRmʟĴ$HH 98MW85MWͿ-ƄĜņ0)G7 Ĵ- 2008 ƀ1śǟHampdeg˘ɱ0aRZnKŅŪ0FAēǧ-GD1đɔb3divide14Ĵatilde3ʱSrYş-40aRZn3ˬOtildeşKɥGđɔb3aRZ

nȒʝ14==0Ƹ˂G$3ƸĴecirc3 LCOE G4 FG ˩ʙ1ƐG40ɏKƿǐG34˞-GđɔbNjAEligG342008 ƀ3Ĵecirc3ʫȁKȣGamp3ˊɱ0ɏ10 Ugrave 1-3 4Ĵecirc3yacutevgKʆampA3-Gě3yacutevg1szlig3Ĵ3ʼnOacuteKđɔ

b3OacuteɥGYacute1ampD1đɔb3˩ʙOacuteĴecirc3 LCOE B FG 3ʫȁ1ƐG40

ECN m-4otildeƊɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞKɥGǷdivideſĹ]bn (WACC) A3˘1ʆGWACC 4˜ǘ3yacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞĴ3ʌɞͿKyacute]bnszligiquestK˷ǥGćɂŚļɆ1ĠG Ugrave 1-41ĴecircD7đɔb3 LCOE FG3ʫȁKʆ3ʫȁ142008ƀ3 LCOEyacuteYj

3˩ʙʫȁKĠG3ʫȁ4Ĵecirc3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnszligiquestK˘ampʆampA3-G3Ͷ

oumlɯaRZn-Aś3 LCOE4ľƯaRZn1D)ɮ0)G

ĎȲ4 Ugrave 1-33mĀ3sup3Ś3amp3THORNoumlmg43gt-ʆG1ɫƧraquo LCOE FG3ʫȁ4

ʟo3Ǟ-ʆG

7

Ugrave 1-2 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divideOslashfrac12JFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h b

P bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b Ͷ^Pc(MW) ĎȲ5 23 20 30 20 24 20 17 21

Ͷļǘ 7 5 5 15 41 6 50 34 szligːǨ 2695 2260 2200 2150 2600 1750 3066 2628 ƷĎȲ6(eurokW) 1250 1373 1325 1250 1591 1790 1377 1449 ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 00 15 00 00 16 00 00 06 reg3]bn

euroMWhͿ 3 0 10 3 0 0 0 1

ʰƾijŚͿ(euroMWh) 000 4633 3139 000 001 000 860 629

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 12 0 13 20 11 31 5 11

njʰƾʱͳ

(euroMWh) 12 21 28 20 11 31 7 13

đɔb divide 61 38 57 114 366 46 318 NA

Ugrave 1-3 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14dividearingmJFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h bP

bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 55 50 70 50 50 60 50 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 110 95 150 100 120 70 75 100 Oumlyacute3otildeĜͿ 80 70 80 80 87 70 0 80 Ƿ3otildeĜͿ 20 30 20 20 13 30 100 20 ǴƀͿ 13 13 15 15 20 20 15 15 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 250 298 255 300 280 210 389 280

WACCͿ 52 56 60 59 47 49 75 49

Ugrave 1-4 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divide LCOE FGyuml2008Ā

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

bPb 120 (167) oPk 5 (7) Uh 94 (131) ʟĴ ndash1 (ndash1) oPk 85 (118) bPb ndash1 (ndash1) bP 83 (115) Uh ndash3 (ndash4)

bQRm 67 (93) bP ndash3 (ndash4) ʟĴ 65 (91) mZ ndash6 (ndash8)

mZ 61 (85) bQRm ndash8 (ndash11) đɔb 68 (95) đɔb NA

Ugrave 1-41ʆampD1Ĵecirc3 LCOE4bPb3 120MWh167oMWhͿĎȲ7EmZ3 61MWh85oMWhͿ=-Gđɔb3 LCOE4 68MWh95oMWhͿLJŚGěĴ3 LCOE ɮ0)G34Ĵecirc3ɯoumlʰƾǓaeligƷ]bn˺ǞȰ31DGA3-Gș1ěĴ3 LCOE1HE3vgĒltƐKDŽG

ĎȲ5 DF˳Ͷoumlɯ]bnccedilǿ14gɷƑtzſĹͶ)amp˞0vgKĠSrYAElig

ʬ1Gǥʄ0sup3ŚKĠG10G1ʆampLJŚOacute4ǷǮ1ʆampsup2ń3ƴ˗BĴşǦ1ȣ-GD

1ș3ćʣ0shyȓ3gtKʆA3G ĎȲ6 Yacute1ampD1Ʒ]bnD7aRZnƈˬ4 2008ƀ3A3sup3ŚGś14Ʒ]bnͶ3

ɯȲʗͿ14 2008ƀsup2ntilde3ǘŒĠ=HGė˃ƟG ĎȲ7 ɐǯn 1o139-njʙ

8

17 LCOEzoacuteplusmnecirc

ŅĴccedilǿ-4ěĴ1G 43˞0]bnvg3 LCOE93ƐKDŽ)ampĴecirc1 LCOEKLJŚ63]bnvgKĴecirc3Oacute$3reg3vgKđɔb3Oacuteamp3ccedilǿ14

|bPɂŚļɆđɔb3vgOacuteͿȣampĴecirc3THORNoumlvg3ƐKegraveFamp

3ŅĴccedilǿ-ȏ˯amp˞0vg14ɯoumlƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnKĠ

ampș13ʫȁKszlig3Ĵ3-ȣamp AringěĴ3szligːǨ3 LCOE 93ƐKx 1-3 1ʆ3IJ4 3 3ǥʄ0˱bKȣ

ampA3-G=Ɍˎ3Ȍ[y4Yacute1Ugrave 1-4 -ʆampěĴ3 LCOE K˘A3-szligTHORNoumlvgKĴecirc1ʆGș1ʳ4đɔbKʆA3-|bP3 LCOEK 68MWhszligvgKđɔb3OacuteG=ampʲˎ3jn4ȼĜbKʆA3-szligːǨKĴecirc3Oacute

$3reg3vgKđɔb3OacuteG x 1-31-6 4$HHɯouml˫đɔͿƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnK˘G

Ĵecirc3 LCOEɌˎ3Ȍ[yͿđɔb3 LCOEʳͿ43IJ-AŚ˞0]bnvg4ěIJ-ɮ0)FHKV-ccedilFǦʆG

x 1-3 rmicroQ1tzfrac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀkwIumlsect

x 1-4 rmicroQ1tzccedil-1kwIumlsect

9

x 1-5 rmicroQ1tzigraveeacuteETHaeligkwIumlsect

x 1-6 rmicroQ1tzccedilntildeacirciacute-1kwIumlsect

ěĴ3˞0Ͷoumlɯ]bn3vg34sup23D1˷ǥ-GampH1E0Ϳ frac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀăszligːǨ3Ĵ1DG14==0aacuteD7Iumlecirc3˞įƐ

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EHGmZ-4Ĵatilde3ǵɯ3^PnKɯGntilde1Ͷ3ʹˬ˩1D)Ǡœ3Ͷ

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KDzGaRZn^PnǘŅGʳ93NZdbeumlɥė˃ɞEHGamp

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10

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Pk$3reg33Ĵ-4ʡ]bn$3reg3ʡʭŀƍ]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿǓ

Ʊ)Famp)H4Ʒ]bn1ĠEHGbQRm14Ʒ]bn3ethȿ

ė˃10GD0ćʣĀHampʡʭʡưGoPk-4ͶoumlɯͶɅ3 Ć

1ƼņampʫȁɯbrvbarȐʿ4$3˚UgraveưȠŅ3aRZn-gɷƑ3ņ0ͶK

DFľƯ1ˬʹGKƖ00)GƷ]bn4gɷƑD7tz3ǘOacuteņ

0GͿbPb-4ű3ͶoumlɯaRZnɥ^Pn93NZdb=ampˠ

ȕ3ʪȽKȘGampƷ]bn0)G ʟĴ-4ņˠȕ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥEacuteɲ4ɚ1Ͷ3THORN1EcircFɯȲˠȕ

ņ0G1HEgraveȉotildeƊHG˯ǥHGʟĴ3QOoyM4đɔbD

FAaRZnˠȕņƷ]bnfrac12ampʟĴ3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4ǘotildeƊĖEHG

ơƣGˉģȻ1bQRm-4aRZn3ˠȕņ0)AEgraveȉ3otildeƊ

3ơƣ40H4 2008ƀ3bQRm3ˬʹ]bnmampaRZnşȣŪ0)ampamp-ė˃ƟG

igraveeacuteETHaeligăěĴʆampʰƾ3mg4ʄśƟşǦ1Iacuteͱ-0ǘOacute-G

mZ-4żͶoumlɯaRZn3OumlȖʿ4 5Έ10 ƀ3Ǵɱʰƾ^wbŋʢKƛ˞FH4ƀʢ 25kWĽġHGUh-4ʰƾ14żaRZnszligiquest-Ś3EgraveȉHG^wbŋʢ]bnD7ĸdegĠ=HFĽġH

G]bn45Έ23kWņoPk-Aǰfrac12 5ƀ3řszlig0^wbŋʢƛ˞HGľĜGbPb-4ʰƾ3ʪEHGuacuteNZd`wlO

3ĪͲ0E71Ͷ3ɼȧBcentȵ1D)reg3ĴDFʰƾ0)GʟĴ3

ʰƾ4ƀŨTHORNHampņˠȕ0aRZn-4ſĹfrac120)GD-GʟĴ-4

YN~jZbzoG4ɯȗ3ĦKordfnjGǨǴǣG˯ƻAcedilEHF

ƕ)ĽġHGmg3ʰƾ4ũ˰EgraveHGė˃ƟGoPk-AOtildeĦ3ordfnj

ƛ˞HGampũˠȕaRZn-4ʰƾ0)G=ampoPk4szligiquest3

ʰƾ3˞0Ȓƭ˞ʥͳ0ŚǴɱɠĸˡŤ3]bnĽġHGbQRm

-4ʰƾaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒ɮ0)G ccedilntildeacirciacute-1ăͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bn4ʟĴsup2ń3Ĵ-4ĝʋƄ-Gm

ZoPkUh-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿub`n1ļ+Ͷouml

ɯaRZn3K˺Goumlmiddotʇ-GľĜKż4aRZn$3A31D

)K˺GmZbQRm-4ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˊɱ1frac12

bZ3Ʒȗ˟0H$HaRZn33ȪŚ1ēǧHGʟĴsup2ń33Ĵ-

AaRZn3˺3Oumlȣɞ40)Fż4 60Έ87-G ʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn˺ǞȰ4(E5Aringńɱ-G2008 ƀ14ʟĴ3Ņ3aRZnż1ˇŹǷȣɞ55 100Ϳ-˺HaRZn1ļ+Ouml4lte-)ampH4Ǖƃ3yacute3˚ugraveiacuteƄ3amp-F3iacuteƄ1DFgjZb

SZPlO13ʀEHGSZPlOyMPpbȇƉɯ˖1DGǷ˺Ϳ1ɚĀHampƏƩ

ƞŀampgjZbSZPlOyMPpbUacuteYacuteHampampʟĴ-4regĴDFAǷ]bn

0)G0J(gjZbSZPlO4żOumlDFAͿ=ampʟĴ-4Ouml1D

G˺1D)aRZn3ɅKʄIgraveampb-4aRZn-40Ȱlaquo|-

3OumlK)GľĜ)amp =-3=x 1-31-61ʆamp 43˞0]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥD7ěĴ3 LCOEđɔ

b3 LCOEKx 1-71ʆ

11

x 1-7 rmicroQ1tzordfUacuteIgravekwIumlsect

x 1-8 4˞0]bnŃǘ3 LCOE 93ƐKE1ȣȏ˪Gamp1˞0]bnvgKĴecirc-40[1G3IJ-4ěĴ3]bnŃǘ3ƐD7đɔbȣampěĴ3 LCOE3ņKʆGȌ[y4ěĴ3 LCOE KŀdivideGOacuteKʆʲ3Ȍ[y4đɔbDFAěĴ3 LCOE Kfrac12GOacuteKʆ˞0]bnvgKLCOE đɔbDFŀdivideampʋƄȌ[yͿ3ņ1E1ʆGAring5ɯouml3ǰũŃǘ4bPbĽġampǘOacute-G

3Ĵ3ʰƾƷ]bnDFA LCOE KŀdivideG3ǰfrac12OacuteEǰOacute=-3Ĵecirc3THORNoumlvg3ʜıEɯoumlD7Ʒ]bn LCOE 1ǰAƐampJGH4ˊ1Đ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOEƨƄccedilǿˈG (IEA 2010 Cory and Schwabe 2009)ˉģȻ1ĽġHampʰƾ3ʜı4đɔbȣƷ]bn˺]bnDFA LCOE ŀdivide1ƐG3E ʰƾmg3ʄśƟeumlɥė˃Ɵƕ)THORNoumlvg3Ĵ1DG3ņLCOELJŚOacute3ȜʄƟKEHampA31ampė˃ƟGʰƾ1įGŸɮKȿEampE0Gccedilǿ

ƛ˞-GʾEHG

x 1-8 tzSUacute-1JFQ5 LCOEoslash

12

18 rkzacuteRuumljfrac14divide-1

ECN3m1DF-0ȳ1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯƯ3 LCOEKLJŚG-GraquoɠǨɏ-eumlɥ-GȳaRZn3mg4EHFɚ1Ĵecirc3 LCOE KLJŚG31ƛ˞0THORNoumlŃǘ3řszlig0mgƉGƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ1GĴecirc3 LCOE ȣ4˖)E$3đɔbAˬ0sup23Ugrave 1-5 D7 1-6 1ĽġHG]bn˺3mg3KʆɫƧmZ-4ʡʭ93ʡD7ȷƂz3ƛ˞ƟKʇmiddotɱɥGamp

aRZn3ɯȐʿHKƺ0-G3ccedilǿ-ɥampm4aR

Zn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏ1ʑ)ampA3-GampmZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF1ēǧ0m

Āccedilǿ-4Aumlɥ0)ampHE3ʡʭʡ]bnKĠG-mZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF4

ʢ 3000kW10Gx 1-71HE3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1˟ʏA)amp LCOEyacuteYjKʆ

Ugrave 1-5 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+fOslashfrac12JFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn aRZn3ɛȯ 2007ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF

ʓŶƀ 2007ƀ 2010ƀƔĄ ɚŚH ɯƯ^Pc(MW) 20 23 50

Ͷļǘ 60 90 12 szligːǨ 3350 3800 3700 Ʒ(eurokW) 3315 1883 3230

ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 0 0 0 reg3]bn(euroMWh) 11 0 0 ʰƾijŚͿ

(euroMWh) 149 0 123

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 0 24 0

njʰƾʱͳ(euroMWh) 44 24 33

ˀɥƀǘ 15 25 20

x 1-6 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+faringmJFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 45 65 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 120 112 150 OumlotildeĜͿ 50 26 70 ǷotildeĜͿ 50 74 30 ǴƀͿ 15 13 12 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 255 250 298

WACCͿ 79 92 77

Ugrave 1-7 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+f LCOEthornFG

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

Prinses Amalia 166 (231) oPkˊcurrenɂ NA oPkˊcurrenɂ 156 (217) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 6 (8) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 88 (122) Prinses Amalia 5 (7)

13

19 T LCOEYacuteEgravesup2

LCOE4==0ɶɱuumlȗD7˸ʿ3amp1˩ʙHGˊźȤǕʘȪŚʿƷŞaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿʗě3ɚŚ3qcKɄamp LCOE KeumlɥGamp) LCOE 1AumlJHGưȰ4ȓ-40LCOEK3ʋƄ˳LJŚGG43ʋƄ3sup3Śƛ˞4AumlɥG˩ʙǞȰ1D)==-FH LCOE 3ʫȁ1˒ƐG3ampecirc3 LCOE ˩ʙǞȰK=-3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECNmD7ǞȰťȣsup21˷ǥG Aring5ș˩ɩ`pU-4Ʒ]bn3ɠķOacuteD7ʇmiddotɱotildeƊɞKɥotildeFƊampƀ]bn3ſ

Ĺ1ļ+ćʣĀampdeg˘OacuteKɥ LCOE K˟ʏAGľĜG3Ni-4OumlǷȣɞOumlǷ]bnǴȰlaquoʌ)ampǥʄ0ɅʄIgraveǼacute3sup3Ś0H0$3degJF3ćʣ

0ǞȰ-4otildeƊɞLOacute3gtKɥF$H1D)yacuteưȠ3ɚƙKszlig˘GIEA 3Projected Costs of Generation Electricityrdquo (IEA2010) D7IEA World Energy Outlook 2009rdquo (IEA 2009) 43NiKɥFsup23Ɖ1DF LCOEK˩ʙG

3Ni-4IEA 4otildeƊɞKʇmiddotɱɅ]bn13˘G3]bn4ʇmiddotszligiquestɚŚ

3ƴ˗1ƷG1ƺ]bnK˘ (IEA2010)3ʇmiddotɱ˟ĸEIEA4otildeƊɞ 5Έ10KɥF5KȣɱŘŚɱ0ɢĿ1GOumlyacuteŰ˖bZ3frac12ƷŞeumlɥ-Gɞ1310K˒ʪȽɱƴ˗ɱbZD7EgraveȉbZ1ɷGƷŞ3Ʒ]bn13G (IEA2010)DFćʣĀampș˩ɩ`pU1DFTHORNoumlvg3ǘKǰũ1˳ʧƄ1D)ěʍ3ɯĺ3 LCOE KşǦ1ȣG-G H41 ɯȐʿ4 ECNm3D0Ƅ0Xj`ymKAuml)ɚŚ3aRZn

ě3 LCOE0E71ȜģɠķEgraveOacuteatildeĔɲɞȽǴ)ampreg3yacuteƿȔK˰EgraveG3m1˜ǘ3ƯDzʿ3ǥʄ0˺3ntildeNjǼacuteʌ3Ɛ$3reg3ĔTHORNG4]bn3ƐKĠ

GľĜAGǨ143mKɥegrave3ɉķɱ0]bn3ȵHK˰EgraveampFparaȐ3ɚŚ3

aRZn93ƷKė˃1GeumlɲƖEHGD0SrYEgraveȉKȪŚampFG(Harper et al 2007)3˳ʧ0ǞȰKɥampľĜƷ]bnBƀʪ-0ǘŅ3˞į LCOE 1ƐG10GaRZnƈˬ3ǰʨɱ0ȪŚȖ4ƷŞ1GampͶoumlɯ3ʮʯɱ0ˬʹKė˃1G]bn3OacuteKɡ˥

G14ƷŞ3ˡɏKɡ˥G˞-G Aring3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECN m4ƾccedilƷŞ1ƯŚ3Ƿeumlɲɞ (ROE) KIgrave˯aR

ZnȢ1 LCOEK˰EgraveGamp3Ƅ0Xj`ym-GYacute1ampD1ECN3Xj`ymKE1˳ʧ0A31G-ǷD7OumleumlőKƾ˺ȒKǥʄ1˘-

G=ampͶoumlɯ3]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏE˘-aRZnKGamp

3ĔTHORN3ȵH-ɸȡ0H50E0Ͷoumlɯ]bnK˟ʏG-G

110 LCOEYacuteEgraveocircicedilplusmnecirc

Ugrave 1-8 4otildeƊɞ LCOE ǞȰKȣampA3-GXj`yccedilǿ3ćʣ0ǞȰƄ0ǞȰ3ǞKɥ3otildeƊɞ1 LCOE K˟ʏFreg3egrave3]bnvgKě3đɔb1ɔEŚampE1HEʿ3ǞȰ1D)đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿKɣ GotildeƊɞK˘G

t=1Tsum Ʒ t + ʰƾ t + ɗǛ t + Ɏʥ]bn t + ǑĐ t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

LCOE =

t=1Tsum ɯouml t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

Ϳ

14

ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3ˡɏELdeg˘ɱ0otildeƊɞ4Ȥ3aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿG4ƷŞ3ˡɏ1ʑ

)ampotildeƊɞ3OacuteDFfrac120GtimesğGIEA2010 1DH5ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3otildeƊɞfrac120)Gɡɦ4bZŪǘ3ȤƷŞ-40ǘŅ3IumllaquoƷŞ1ccedilǗHGampɷGbZ˺]bn

Ū00Gamp-G$H1sup1ʇmiddotɱˡɏE3 LCOE 3˟ʏFAȤƷŞ3˟ʏFDFAfrac120Gtimesğ1G

Ugrave 1-8 icedil LCOEsup2plusmnecirc

ǞȰͽˡɏ ˡɏ ˺]

bn3Ʋ ɥ m

otildeƊɞ3

ʜı

otildeƊɞ3ʜı

1G LCOE

đɔb3

LCOEKɣ GotildeƊɞ

ș`pU ˩ɩ3ćʣ˩ʙ

agraveɱʇmiddotɱ ƷŞ3ˡɏ

otildeƊɞ1 ĠG IEA2010 5Έ10

53Έ70MWh

IEA3ǞȰͿ

95 IEA3ǞȰͿ

ƄXj`

yccedilǿ

aRZn ɯbrvbarȐʿG

4ȤƷŞ ǥʄ1Śʻ ECN2008 75Έ15

(ROE) 64Έ76

MWh 10

ECN3ǞȰͿ

reg3szlig3Ńǘ1đɔb3ntildeNjǼacuteKɥ Ƿccedilǿ-ĽġHamp ROE3ʜı1ļ+

Ugrave 1-8 1ʆD1(E3Ni-ALotildeƊɞ3 LCOE Oacute1˒ƐG95otildeƊɞ4ʇmiddot3ˡɏK˘ʞɬ0˩ʙȰKɥđɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿK˩ʙG31ƛ˞0Oacute-Gƕ)Ƿʃʐ3đdivide˽ĴĽġampmg1ļ+0E3otildeƊɞ4ǰņOacute1+4-F

IEA-43ʜıK 5Έ10GH4ʞɬĀampʇmiddotɱ˩ɩǞȰKɥƄXj`yưȰ3ordmOacuteKǥE1ampA3-G 1frac12Ǟ3otildeƊɞNjȊHampŽ3ǰAfrac12OacuteͿˊƷŞ3bK˘amp1ɥEHGƕ)

LCOEK˩ʙG14=ampͶoumlɯ3 LCOEKreg3Ʌ3 LCOEȣG14aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏG4DFƁoumlʡʭ|3ˡɏ3(E1ʑ)GKǥʄ1GėȘ-G

otildeƊɞ3Ƹ4$3ˡɏ1ťƜGdz=LCOEK˘ěʍ3ƉKɥGľĜ4ʑˆGˡɏotildeƊɞ$3reg3vg3OacuteKǥʄ1˥Gƛ˞HG

111 Iumlatilde

IEAWind Task263ʫȁELCOEĴ1D)ņɮ0)GJG33ƄĜ4ɯoumlƷɥ˺)ampě]bn3Ɛ1DGA3HGcurrenƦFĴŞ3 LCOE3Ÿɮ1ǰAƐamp34Ƿɱ0ͶȯG4Ͷ3ƴ˗shyȓ1ļ+currenɂHGɯouml-G=amp

ǷɱǓaeligD7ͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ǽacuteņɮ0GEźľoumlAͶoumlɯ3]bnszligiquest

1˒ƐGE1ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾAěĴ-˒ɮ0FH LCOE 1ņ1Ɛamp 63ɂŚļɆ-SrY3]bnszligˊK˘ LCOE 3Ɵ4ĴBɶɱ˸ʿ$3reg3eumlɥʿ3

-ćʣ0ȣ-GD1ƝJHGLCOE3ěʍ3˩ʙ3ˡɏE3D10HampKȜʄ1ɡ˥Gƛ˞GLCOE4ɪaacute-Aordfnjė˃0˩ʙ-A0IɚŚ3qc1ɥHGDzɲ-Eacuteeuml0k-Gƕ)ȣD7$3ʫȁ3˥14ɫƧGdz=

rOtildemiddot

Cory and Schwabe 2010 ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financial Variablesrdquo httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2009) ldquoThe Economics of Wind Energy A Report by the European Wind

15

Energy Associationrdquo March 2009 Available at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentspublicationsreportsEconomics_of _Wind_Main_Report_FINAL-lrpdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2010) ldquoWind in Power 2009 European Statisticsrdquo The European Wind Energy Association February 2010 Accessed at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentsstatistics100401_General_Stats_20 09pdf

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review and Comparative Analysisrdquo Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 Accessed at httpeetdlblgoveaempreports63434pdf

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2006) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2006rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2006weo2006pdf

IEA (2008) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2008rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2008weo2008pdf

IEA (2009) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2009rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgWbookshopaddaspxid=388

IEA (2010) ldquoProjected Costs of Generating Electricityrdquo 2010 Edition Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgpublicationsfree_new_DescaspPUBS_ID=2207

RECaBs (2007) ldquoRECaBs Interactive Renewable Energy Calculatorrdquo Renewable Energy Calculator Accessed August 2010 at httpwwwrecabsorg

Wiser R Bolinger M (2010) ldquo2009 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy August 2010 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs2009_wind_technologies_market_reportpdf

16

Aring 2Auml NDQ+

21 NDQ+uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ȑ˞0E71]bn3ɚƙKG-

4 2008 ƀ3D7ȳͶoumlɯƴ˗1GĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1ɒɏKƎG

211 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

2008ƀǶ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ĝ˩ 3179MW 2756MWȳ 423MWͿ-H4 2007ƀǶ3ˬOtildeş1ťʢ 1252000ƀ3ˬOtildeşDFA 32ŀdivideG2001ƀE 2008ƀ=-1ŀdivideampˬOtildeş3ʢĄǘ4ȳͶoumlɯ1DGA3-G2008 ƀ1ȳ-ƈˬ3ȳQOoyM4 3F(64 2009ƀ1řƭA64 2010ƀʈ1ŐGcurrenŚ-GˮȲ 5 x 2-1 1ʆD1ŨTHORN3Ƅ4Ǵ15EņJG2001ƀE 2003ƀ1

ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 725MW ŀdivideamp2004 ƀE 2007 ƀ=-4 8MW ŀdivideamp10H4 2003 ƀ1śǟHampaRZn3ǕɱǓǎ˩ɩņŽ1ȿͳHampʫȁ-GHK˚amp1 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampǝamp0ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFͶ3ƈˬǝamp1ȲɶHG10)amp2008ƀ3 FITŨTHORNƔ2010ƀ 7DZǶ=-1Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 280MWŀdivideG (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ1D)mZ3ʱoumlȸ3ʢ 20AEligʬHG

x 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

ˮȲ 5 Roslashdsand IIȳͶoumlɯƯ4 2010ƀ 8DZ1ŐG

17

mZ4ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ƀșɶȔKŚ0EU 3˞Ȩ1DH5mZ4 2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯ-ʱSrYȸ3 30Kamp3˩ɩKʘŚ0H50E0EU-4szlig3divideɳĴ13aumlɣė˃SrY3ɶȔOacuteKƭGamp3˖uuml˩ɩ3AcircƭKʻyacutemacrFm

Z4 2010ƀ 6DZ1Ĵ3˖uuml˩ɩKɯ˘G3˩ɩ-42020ƀ=-1ˬOtildeşKʢ 4 GW$H1D)Ͷoumlɯ4 11000 GWh10GcurrenƦHG=ampʱş3 3ccedil3 1D7ouml3ʢ 50Kȳ1ˬʹGͶEƖGcurrenƦHG (Kemin 2010)(0gt12009ƀ3ɯouml4ʢ 6700 MWh-G2010 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3currenɂ4ěȚŵdivideɳĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010) ʁǴɶȔ2008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MW3divide0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ˬ

Otildeş 350 MW3ǝˬŚEHG3ɶȔOacute3Ąccedil4Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ1D)ƭA3-$H1D)ʦʏş4 175 MWŀdivideG10GĸǞ3˩ɩƎŬ42012ƀ=-1 350MW1divideş 150 MWKdivideGamp3˩ɩKˠŚ0H50E0 ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MWKdivideGʁǴɶȔ433ņˠȕ0ȳͶoumlɯƯ0J( Horns

Rev II209 MW2009ƀ 9DZŐͿRoslashdsand II207 MW2010ƀʈʓŶcurrenŚͿAnholt400 MW2012ƀ12DZʓŶcurrenŚͿ1DFƭHG˟gt-G

Ugrave 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

1761 2358 2464 2697 2708 2716 2720 2728 2717 2756 2985 2621

ȳ 11 50 50 210 423 423 423 423 423 423 856 1339

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 2-2 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

176 1 597 106 183 12 8 4 8 ndash11 39 ndash38 ndash135

ȳ 11 39 0 210 223 0 0 0 0 0 100 ndash14

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

212 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1iacuteŚHampaumlɣė˃SrYȰ1DFͶoumlɯaRZn3ǝamp0ĽiacuteƄŨTHORNHampǝamp03ͶoumlɯaRZnD7UoN13ȳaRZnĎȲ8-4HAszligːǨ

22000Ǩ1igraveG=-bjnźľEgraveȉ1divide 025mZZrkW0034kW ĎȲ9 0047okWͿ3ugraveƭNjAEligHGĎȲ10szligːǨ˫3Ǩ1igraveampƔ4źľEgraveȉKĖĕG10

G Ͷ1ť4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥƀǘ3Ǵ ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3˚ugraveƀ 0023mZ

ZrkW00037kW 0005okWͿ˚ugraveHG

ĎȲ8 UoNaRZn134ȳͶoumlɯƯ3THORNǸư4ecirc1ƈˬHGȳͶoumlɯƯ3aRZn

ŚʻHG13ȳͶoumlɯƯUoNɧ˻db1DFƈˬHG ĎȲ9 17353mZZr ĎȲ10 ɠ˖3Egraveȉ˚ugraveiacuteƄ4ͶoumlɯaRZn93ugraveƭK 1 kWampF 010mZZr0013Ϳamp

[1degJ)ŨTHORNHampA3-G

18

ˊɱ1mZ-4ͶszligːǨ- 22000Ǩ3ɯK˖147ƀE 10ƀGAring5 3 MWͶKˬʹGH5FIT4ș3D1ȪŚHGĎȲ11

3 MWͶszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 3000 kWh

3000 kWh times 22000 = 66 GWh FITʬ˺Ǚ˚ugrave43 MWͶ 66 GWhɯG=-3ǴǓƱJHG3Oacute4ș3D10G

(66 GWh times 025Zr) + (66 GWh times 0023Zr) = 18064200Zr

Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4ʽǹĀampͶKǑĐGǝˠ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1A

ɥHG3ͳ4ǑĐHampˬOtildeş3 2ETHKɣɤGamp3szligːǨ 12000Ǩ1ť 008mZZrkW001kW 00139okWͿ-GAring5 225 kW3ͶKTHORNǝˠ3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn1D)ǑĐGľĜˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugraveK˩ʙGsup23D10G

225 kW times 2ļszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 450 kWh

450 kWh times 12000 = 54 GW

ǑĐamp 225 kWͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4

54 GWh times 008Zr = 432000Zr 3˚ugraveɥHG34450 kWǵɄ3ͶKǑĐGľĜ1EHG3˚ugrave3ơƣKĖGamp

3ǝˠaRZn-ǑĐGͶ3ǘ1iacuteˬEHGJ-403˚ugraveɥHG34

450 kWǵɄ3ͶK˩ 175 MWKǑĐGľĜ1EHG szligːǨ1ļ+ FIT-4Ś3 kWh3ɯǨ-40ˊ1tzgɷƑņͶD

FAņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶ93ƷUacuteHGAring5 3 MW 3ɯȗ3szligːǨampFɯouml (kWh) 415 MWͶ3 2ETH-ƕ)ĖĕG˚ugrave3ͳAETH10G ș1ʆUgrave 2-3D7 2-44FITͶoumlaRZn1GͶ3Ƹ1ĒltƐKʆampA3-3

Aring4ś3aRZn1ļ+G

Ugrave 2-3 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITuh AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave[]psup312

ɯȗ3

ˠȕ

MWͿ

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ ouml

MWhͿ

Ͷ 1ļampF3aRZn]bn

(DKK)

oumlłͳ (DKK)

ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 223 098 30 90 90 7497 23430 5250 224 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 223 098 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 227 100

(Nielsen et al 2010)

ĎȲ11 3Aring4reg3Ĵ3ʒ14Ġ=H0ampmZZr-ĽġG ĎȲ12 ĝ

19

Ugrave 2-4 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITu AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave]

ɯȗ

^Pc(MW)

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ

ouml (MWh)

Ͷ 1ļampF3aR

Zn]bn

(DKK)

ouml łͳ(DKK)

˚ugrave

(DKK) ʱĔTHORN

(DKK) ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 1650 6610 298 100 30 90 90 7497 2343 5250 1650 6900 295 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 1650 8920 273 092 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 990 5220 281 094

(Nielsen et al 2010)

˫3AringEņĺ3gg1ƷGDFAņĺ3ɯȗ1ƷGǞszligːǨ1ļ+

FIT 3ơƣKĖBJGUgrave 2-3 1ʆHGD1ǰAʪȽucircɞ3ˍͶ4ņĺgKOtildeamp 18 MW3ȣɱũĺ3Ͷ-GH4szlig3Ͷ-Ś3ɯouml kWhKļ1ampľĜ3 FIT1AƎ4=GUgrave 2-4 EszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT E3divideɱĔTHORNƖEHB34gɷƑũtzfrac12 3 MW3ɯȗ-Fȣɱũĺ3ɯȗ4 3frac141ˑ(GJG

FIT3ļɆszligːǨKɥGjn4currenˠŚHampˬOtildeşKƭGamp1ˬʹHGͶ3ǘŪ00G-G=ampH1DFgɷƑtz3OacuteKGjnAŪ00G

HE 2 3ʹ˩ɩKʘŚaRZnKĸUcirc-ĖTHORNHAE1ĪͲ0GľĜGszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT 4mZ3ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ʁǴɱɶȔOacute)ampˬOtildeş1ļ+ǕʘɱɶȔOacuteƭHGD1Gamp3A3-G szligːǨK FIT 3ļɆG3mjn4˚ugrave1DFźľ3ȝgtɣ GampǰAʪȽɱucircɞ

3ˍͶƛAaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ1)ǰAͺoumlɱ0gw-400G-G

$3ampǰʨɱ14Ͷoumlɯreg3ɅDFA10F20mZ-43ƏƉ3 FIT AumlJHGampɯoumlKļɆampɶȔOacuteƭ1G]bn0Gʫȁ0G

22 NDQ+ 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-4mZ1G 2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKG-ɥampmg42008 ƀ1˩ɩG4śǟHampaRZn3ſĹOacute1ļ+A3-GͶ93Ʒ]bn4^Pn3Ǽacute1DFŚ-40mZ-4ɯ]bnȣɱŚGD-GˬOtildeş MWampF3Ʒ]bn14ǰņ- 503GeacuteƀƄ3ɯouml MWh ampFƷ]bn3Ńuumlɞ4 15ǵɄ-G

221 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para mZ3ͶoumlɯaRZ-n4ˊ1Ū0Ͷǘ3Έ12ļͿ3ͶʺKɥG˩ɩW

PoP-4Ū0A 3ļ3ͶKɷʳɛG4ʵB0ŔKNJD1=ʹGGH4ͶK 1 ļccedilǗɱ1ʹGˡˢɱĉƋ0GE-GmZ14ņˠȕQOoyM3AringGbPBʟĴņ0A3-40ǰņˠȕ3b4Ͷ 20ļKˬʹGʱş 63 MWͿ

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹŚȉş4 19 MW-F$3gɷƑ4 80 mtz4 72 m-G2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ-ǰAˊɱ034 23 MW3Ͷ-F$3tz4 80 mgɷƑ4 93 m-G

(b) BL0+Ouml mZ3Ͷğ4ˊ1˝ğ-GampͶ3^PnɡƦɱ034āȷȮų10G

20

ˊɱ1ͶɅ4ǾŪ00)GȮųĸŻ$3Ģ-4ƀſĹͶ 7 msKGH4 2 MWͶtz 80 mͿ1ļ1ťszligːǨʢ 2500Ǩ1ɸƎG(Danish Energy Agency 2010)2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3 2009ƀƄ3szligːǨ4ſĹ 2639Ǩ-)amp2009ƀ3mZ3ͶɅ4żƀ3 88-2008 ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3szligːǨ4szligˀɥƀǘſĹ-ʢ 3000 Ǩ10GcurrenƦHGɫƧszligːǨ3LJŚOacute4mZszligiquest3ͶɅl`1GA3-402008ƀ1ˬʹH2009ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+˩ʙampA3-G

(c) ccedil-1 2008ƀƄ3deg˘ɱ0aRZnƷ]bn141100kW1529okWͿE 1300kW1807

okWͿ=-F$3ſĹ4 1250 kW1738 okWͿ-GEgraveȉ4 2008 ƀ1xZ1ampƔ2009ƀ 2010ƀ1ņŽ1frac12GɚƙG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ1GͶ3ʰƾ4IgraveIcircɡ^wbŋʢĸdegĵĸʚɡ3 4 ɶ-ȒƭH

GHE3ɶ$HHͶoumlɯƯ3ɣȹʰƾ3ʢ 25KĈG2008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlɯaRZn1currenƦHGɣȹʰƾ412MWh17oMWhͿ-G (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m4ƀ|b3Ouml 80-K˺GaRZnKɥGmZ1GȤ

ƯDz3Ͷ4ˊ1ƎƅOgraveŋʢ1DFK˺Gegrave3ĔTHORNKƎƅOgraveŋʢ1Ʒ FͶ

3ƯDzʿ43ļKɷDžeumlɥG-0Ʒ1ťGeumlɊ93ǓaeligǓƱ4szligOumlȖʿ3Ƴ˴

ʻyacutemacrEHG mZ3ɡƦɱ0aRZn4100Ouml-K˺GaRZn-Gż3aRZ

n-4Ouml1DG˺3otildeĜʢ 800)GͶoumlɯaRZn1ťGOgraveTHORNĮĔǴĖTHORNHė˃034 15ƀsup2atilde-G

2008 ƀƄ3ƎƅOgraveŋʢ3eumlő4ʢ 5ͼ-H4 5 ƀijŚHGͶoumlɯaRZn4reg3ƷȗɱbrvbarȐȣȵuumlƟ˟0HGampˊ1eumlőfrac120)GͶoumlɯaRZ

n3bZ˞įKʚɡ-Gegrave0ưȠGEͶ93Ʒ4bZfrac12˟0HG mZ1GǝˠaRZn3ľĜʣɤɞ4ż 9Έ11-G3amp 5~73bZ

Nė˃10G3EA1983ƀE 2002ƀ=-3mZ˯icircȇƉĕƊƯ3 OMX203bZNſĹ 72)amp3ȣͶoumlɯaRZn3bZȣɱfrac12JGĎȲ13 (Saabye 2003)

(f) s_N3N9A Ͷ30ĔTHORNɅ4NordPool źľK 3oumlłFIT Ə-3Egraveȉ˚ugrave-Gʬ˺

ǙbrvbarȐʿ3Ͷ3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢK 5ƀ=-ƇG-GĎȲ14HE3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢ4 Nord Pool3Yacuteəźľ1Ɇ ʴʫHG

(g) Q54Q1 mg4 Economy of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ1

ļ+A3-G

222 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para 2008 ƀ1mZ-ŐampȳaRZn40HA˩ɩG4ƈˬȠ1GȳQ

OoyMɯ4ˊ1Ǖƃ3˴ėKƖEHG10G3˴ė4THORNǸʋKEHG

A3-szligːǨ 50000Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml kWhampF3THORNǸ1ťǰfrac12Egraveȉ3A31˴ė

ĎȲ13 Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark ĎȲ14 10ƀijŚEgraveȉKNjAEligGǝˠ3ɯAɰľG

21

aeligHG10GHornz Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand I amp II4THORNǸʋKʪśɠampaRZn-GAnholt3ǝȳQOoyM3THORNǸǴ4 2010ƀ 6DZ1ʨpoundG$3ˬOtildeş4 400 MW-2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-1KŐG10G UoN13ǞƉĎȲ15QOoyMA˴ėHGUoNǞƉQOoyM3ˬʹlaquo

ƖEHH5Ͷ1Aĝ PdlOz[ɥHG10Gɠķ=-1 2 3UoNǞƉ3QOoyMƈˬHG

(b) ccedil-1 mZ1GȳQOoyMɯbrvbarȐʿ3Ʒ]bn4˴ėiacute3THORNǸʋKʪampʢ 200 MW3

ņˠȕQOoyM1ťʢ 2700Έ3000kW3753Έ4170okWͿ-G ȳQOoyMKĴatilde3oumlʡʭȳŃĶˬOtilde1ʡGamp3]bn4mZ-4Ĵƺ

GampaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷʱͳŪ00)GɢĿƐ˰Egravebrvbarntilde3ȷƂĸ˰Egrave3]

bnAĴƺG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳQOoyM3ʰƾ4ʭ˩mgEHF=ampȳQOoyMɥʪǬʳ

ƞthornKƭGamp1ʄśƟmZ3ņˠȕȳQOoyM3ɣȹʰƾ4ĸ

Ļ3ɛȯ1DF 18MWh25oMWhͿE 20MWh28oMWhͿ=-G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mZ3ņˠȕQOoyM3˺4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ȪʙǴszligiquest1ɀ)˖JH

GsmOjZƷ˖E3OgraveTHORN˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM1eumlɥHGraquoH4

aRZn93˺Ə-˖JHGJ-40Ϳ˴ ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4ż 50ƍ3Ƿȣɞ-˺HG mZ3oumlmiddotʇ3Ƿ]bn4ʢ 112ͼ Ouml]bn4 4555˩ʙHG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) s_N3N9A ˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml3ijŚEgraveȉKĖĕ)

GijŚEgraveȉ4THORNǸdb-ȪŚHGTHORNǸEgraveȉ4˺ǙHampƿȔ-40szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ĔTHORN Nord PooloumlĕƊ-3ł-ƖEHampƔ1ȪŚHGHorns Rev II3ˑǸEgraveȉ4 0069kWh0096okWhͿRoslashdsand II4 0085kWh0118o kWhͿ-GźľEgraveȉ1ťGEgraveȉ˚ugrave4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿTHORNǸEgraveȉ1Ɯ NjAEligGźľEgraveȉTHORNǸEgraveȉDFľĜQOoyM

Eʡʭɥʿ1ŸͳKǓƱJ250E0 ˴ėiacute-0G4UoN13ǞƉ3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 22000 Ǩ1G

=- 0034kWh0047okWhͿD7Ͷeumlɥ-Greg3˚ugraveKĖĕG

(f) Q54Q1 Horns Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand II3ƈˬ]bnʱͳ1Gmg4eumlɥė˃0agraveɱƥĽmZ3ȳ

QOoyMɯ3ŦŞD7ȳQOoyMƯDzʿ0E71ȳQOoyM3˺

ʿ93ˁĕF˺ȆE1THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙEƖampA3-G

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacute3ȑ˞-G

ĎȲ15 UoN13aRZn4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3THORNǸʋKʪ1˖JHGȳƈˬaRZnŚ

ʻHG3 23QOoyM1divide13ȳɯƯUoNɧ˻db1D)ƈˬHG

22

Ugrave 2-5 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ16

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ17 ȳ

2008ƀĎȲ18 ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 23 23 23 Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 3 91 90 ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2700 4300 3865

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 25 25 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1250 2844 3000

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash (1738) (3953) (4170) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 12 (17) 20 (28) 18 (25) $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 3 (4) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆ Economics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010

Ugrave 2-6 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 50 55 45 Ƿeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 110 112 112 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 80 45 26 Ƿ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 20 66 74

WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 52 88 95 Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 13 10 13 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 25 25 25

FXn $US 139 139 139 FXn DKK ndashndashndash 7353 ndashndashndash 7353

ǛΆEconomics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aeligIacuteɥļ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ

Ugrave 2-7 NDQ+uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 447 (621) 28 (39) 447 (621) źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 37 (51) 70 (97) 85 (118) FITǕʘǴ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 22000 50000 50000 ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

LVRT ˮȲ 6ĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ǛΆNielsen et al 2010 Danish Energy Agency 2008 Danish Energy Agency 2009 ĎȲ16 2007ƀ14mZ-ǝamp1ƈˬHampͶ40)amp ĎȲ17 2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ȳ1Ͷ4ƈˬH0)ampȳQOoyM 3ƈˬG4˩ɩȠ1)amp

$3( 24Ǖƃ3˴ė˩ɩ1ļ+A3-ȟF64UoN13aRZn-)ampHorns Rev II3ǰʨɱ0Ʒ3ȪŚ4 2007ƀ10Hampamp3ǘŒ4 Horns Rev II3LJŚ]bn1ļ+GRoslashdsand II3ƷȪŚ4 2008ƀ10H$Hĝƀ3]bn3Ȉƻ0)G

ĎȲ18 -ɥampAring42008ƀ1ƈˬŋʢʴʫHamp Roslashdsand II3THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙG ˮȲ 6 LVRT (Low Voltage Ride Through) Ķɾfrac12Ǩ1AͶ0ͶoumlɯƯ3KʮʯʡʭŘŚƄKʰƾGȗ˃

23

223 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc 2008ƀ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ93ƷmgKɥ LCOEK˩ʙAring 1Auml1ʆampđɔb3

LCOEȣampđɔb4Wind Task263szligđdivideĴ3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn-G đɔb3 6 Ńǘ3ƐKmZ3brvbarAringȣěŃǘmZ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOE 1Ɛ

GKǥE1ampđɔbmZ3brvbarAringKȣampʫȁKx 2-2 1ʆmZ3ſĹɱaRZn3 LCOE42008ƀ14 61MWh85oMWhͿ-H4đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿDFA 7MWh10oMWhͿfrac12)amp

x 2-2 NDQ+rmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup319

(b) BL0+dj đɔb3aRZn3aeligouml4szligːǨ 2600ǨKBBĮ)ampǞ 2008ƀ1Őamp

mZ3aRZn3 2009ƀ3ſĹɯouml4szligːǨ 2700ǨKBBĮ)ampH4 2009ƀ3ͶȯƤͶoumlɯ3ɯoumlAringƀ3 88ͼ10)ampamp-G3ɏKʾƬG2008ƀƄ3ſĹɱaRZn3ƀszligːǨ4ʢ 3000Ǩ-H1DFaRZn3ʪȽƟ=FLCOEʢ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿfrac12amp10GmZ3brvbarAring3szligːǨđɔbȣǤH5GLCOE4ʢ 1MWh1oMWhͿfrac12G

(c) Ntildeccedil-1 2008ƀ1GmZ3Ʒ]bn4đɔbDFAʢ 200kW278okWͿfrac12m

Z3aRZn]bn 15frac120)amp34mZ3ʡʭʡ]bnKƺG3ʡʭɥʿ-Gamp-G ʡʭɥʿ4ĖɏE3ʡ]bnKǓƱ3]bn14ŃƯBŃĶĬ3]bnĠ=HG3

aRZn3ƯDzʿ4ͶEĖɏ=-3]bnKǓƱA3SNʹ˩ɩˠiuml1GͶS

N˟0HGľĜ$3SN3ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿĖɏ=-ʡ-GD1ʡʭKƼƌ0H50E0

3]bn4ʡʭɥʿƺG3ˠiacute1DFaRZn]bnszligiquestKņŽ1ȿE-

GHKx 2-31ʆ đɔbDFAƷ]bnfrac120)G˞į4reg1ƈˬ^Pn3ĸɡɱǼacuteegrave0ĸ

Ucirc1ƍouml0Ͷ˛ɤȐD7ʪŢ0aRZnɯœķGʹ˩ɩɢĿƐ˰Egrave1

GͶ3Ȱˠiacuteăccedil1ǙOtildeHGǀEHG

ĎȲ19 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4ĭǂcopyTHORN3ampđɔběĴ LCOE3Ÿ3

Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

24

x 2-3 NDQ+eumlEuml-1-1iumleGK

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mZ3˺]bn4đɔbDFAͳ-GmZ3aRZn-ƛ˞H

GǷeumlɲɞ4 110ͼđɔb-4 100Ϳ-ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ouml3ſĹeumlɞ4đɔbȣGOuml1DG˺3otildeĜĝʋƄ-G mZ-4Ͷ3ȵuumlƟͶoumlɯaRZn3ucircɞɱ0bZranĩĦźľ-eumlɥ

-GampͶ3˺1GbZ3|frac12˟0HGmZ3aR

Zn3Oumleumlő1˘HGmZ-4Ƿ]bn0)G34oumlźľ1GEgraveȉbZ

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25

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26

Ugrave 2-8 2007 2008NDQ+uumljfrac14divide LCOEpsup321

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave

(LCOE) euroMWh

($MWh) ndashndashndash 61 (85)

70 (97)

81 (113)

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(93) 67

(93) 79

(110)

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rOtildemiddot

Danish Wind Industry Association httpwindpowerorgenknowledgestatisticsthe_danish_markethtml September 2010 (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)

Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2007 2008 (Danish Energy Agency 2008) Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2008 2009 (Danish Energy Agency 2009)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Ministry of Climate and Energy National handlingsplan for vedvarende energi i Danmark 2010 (In English National Action

ĎȲ21 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampĔɲʱͳͶoumlɯǕʘͽPdlO

zD7yacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜAG

27

Plan for RE in Denmark) (Kemin 2010)

Nielsen et al Economy of Wind Turbines 2010 EUDP (Nielsen et al 2010) (Original title Vindmoslashllers Oslashkonomi)

Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark (Saabye 2003)

28

Aring 3Auml lt8

31 lt8uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

311 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

oPk1GͶoumlɯɯ4 1990ƀdegeacuteͰ1ŐHamp$Hsup2ǽͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4 239 GWsup210)ampƀŨTHORNş4 2002ƀ1 32 GW1ampƔJ1ȿŪampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4 2012ƀ=-1Ĝ˩- 306 GW 1ǤG˟=HG2012 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3Ĵecircaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010)

2009ƀȳQOoyM3ʖ 1Ě0)amp Alpha VentusʓŶampH1DFȳ3ɯŧǽŐ=GA3ǴƒHGoPkǕƃ4 2015ƀǶ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʢ 25 GW1GɶȔKɯ˘G

x 3Ă1 lt8uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

2000 ƀoPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4Ĵatildeʱɯouml3 16KĈsup2ǽ3otildeĜ4ņŽ1Ǥ8ƀƔ14 620)GcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3ŀdivideoPkǕƃ1DGɺSrY3ĕFʩgtKʾƬG3otildeĜ4notƔAǤKʯGcurrenƦHGUgrave 3-1 4oPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ĐD7ŧǽ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 3-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀşdivideKʆampA3-G

29

Ugrave 3-1 lt8IacuteAtildeTHORNOacuteeth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

44 61 88 120 146 166 184 206 222 239 306 358

ȳ 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 100

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 3-2 lt8oacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

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44 17 27 32 26 20 18 22 17 17 14 03

ȳ 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 04 17

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

312 s_CcedilN3N9A

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(b) EEG2004 Ͷoumlɯ3ļǷǛ4 55MWh76oMWhͿotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 87MWh121oMWhͿ

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ɯoumlđɔ^Pn3ɯouml3 150KĮGD13Ǵ4 060ͼ1ʮʯHG ȳͶoumlɯ3ļǷĕEgraveȉ4 62MWh86oMWhͿotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 91MWh127oMWhͿ

Hampȳɯ3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4˫3 EEG3shyʩgt1ļ+ȪŚHamp

(c) EEG2009 2009 ƀ3 EEG -4Ͷoumlɯ3ļǷĕǛ 502 MWh698 oMWhͿotildeŀĕEgraveȉ 92

ĎȲ22 oPk3đɔ^Pn4ǷĽġǮ-ɥampđɔb133-401ȲƧ

30

MWh128oMWhͿ1ǔ˨Hamp(E3ĕͳAQOoyM3ƈˬƀEƀɞ 1-frac12ƕ) 2009 ƀ3ƈˬaRZnĖĕGotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 92 MWh128 oMWhͿ10G2010ƀ3ƈˬaRZn-4 91MWh126oMWhͿ10GǠœ^PnˬOtildeǭǝaRZn-H5E1 5MWh5oMWhͿ3otildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideʙHGͶoumlʡʭ3^nAring5Ģȱǘ˺ǙͿ-GľĜ42014ƀ=-1ˬʹHGǝˠaRZnĝ 5MWh7oMWhͿ3ĽotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ť0GͶ 2010ƀ=-1ǰĀHampľĜǠœ3aRZn1ťG3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 7MWh10oMWhͿ1ŀdivideG ȳQOoyM14 35 MWh49 oMWhͿ3ļǷĕEgraveȉɥHGȳQOoyM

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32 lt8VUgravefrac12oumlRPacuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+

321 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

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aeligouml-)amp2007ƀ 2008ƀ1oPk-QOoyMƈˬ1ampĸĻ4ȣɱŪ0$3ampͶ3ǘŪ0ũˠȕ3QOoyMŅǘƈˬHG10)amp2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ˬ ʹHampǰ

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31

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ĔTHORN4SrY3 FITD7GǛEƖEHG2007ƀ1ƈˬHampaRZn3ĽŌ4 819

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32

Ugrave 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

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Ugrave 3-4 lt8uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 55 55 NA 65

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 95 95 NA 120 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 70 70 NA 70

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 30 30 NA 30 WACC ͼ 56 56 NA 68

Ǵ ƀ 13 13 NA 15 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 298 298 NA 298

FXn $US 139 139 NA 139

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard Destatis

Ugrave 3-5 lt8uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 79 (110) 78 (108) NA 84 (117) FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA 20

ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ

ƀ NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 16 16 NA 16 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

323 lt8oumlRBL0+yuml2008ĀrmicroQ1-1plusmnecirc

x 3-2EoPk3 LCOE85MWh 118oMWhͿǷĽġǮ-Yacute1ampđɔbDFA˒ccedilG$3ɡɦKsup21IJʆG

33

x 3-2 lt8uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup323

324 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) BL0+dj LCOE 3KAampEG34aRZn3śʷ-GʾEHGđɔb3ş

4ƀszligːǨ 2630ǨoPk3ļǷaRZn3szligːǨ4ƀ 2260Ǩ$HDFA4G1frac12

(b) ccedil-1 oPk3 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4 1373 kW1908o kWͿ-đɔbDFA 76

kW106okWͿfrac12)ampLCOE1˧5H4ʢ 3MWh4oMWhͿȿ1ɸƎG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAʢ 7MWh10oMWhͿH

4ŚǴɏȏ3śǟQOoyMũˠȕ01DGcurrenOtildeĦ3Igraveʚ]bn3Ǥ)ampɡɦ1DG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 oPk3aRZnđɔb3Ÿɮ4ʢ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-H4˺Ȓ

31įG

(e) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4ƦŚ0

325 s_F(=2E

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯ14EEG1ļ+ FITɥHGoPk3ͶoumlɯaRZn EEG2004G4 EEG20093-ƲJHGF$Hsup2ń3ĔTHORN4˟=H0E1oPk3ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎGamp3reg3PdlOzKŨTHORNG4ƧIJHE$3currenƦA0

ĎȲ23 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4ĭǂcopyTHORN3ampđɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3

Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

34

x 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup324

326 aringmH7B

x 3-31ʆampD15MWh7oMWhͿ3yacuteYjɣ FH4szligːǨʰƾ3Ÿɮ1DGA3-G

33

-LoPk3QOoyM3Aring4Śȉaeligouml 2MW3Ͷ 5ļ-ȒƭHGaRZn3szligːǨ42260ǨƦŚG3m3ƦŚ1ļ+LCOE485MWh118oMWhͿLJŚHampNjAEligHamp FIT1DFaRZnɯǨȐʿ3yacuteYjampFʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ10GǛ3Oacute4 EEG-ˠŚHG

Ugrave 3-6 lt8Iumlsectpsup325

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

85 (118) NA 135

(188) ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

79 (110) NA 84

(117)

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

5 (7) NA 46

(64)

rOtildemiddot

BMU Leitszenarion 2009 ndash Bundesministerium fuumlr Umwelt Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit Langfristszenarien und Strategien fuumlr den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland ndash Leitszenario 2009 (2009)

Destatis Statistisches Bundesamt wwwdestatisde (last access December 2009) ĎȲ24 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAG ĎȲ25 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

35

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 32 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122007 (2008)

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 34 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122008 (2009)

Deutsche WindGuard Deutsche WindGuard GmbH on behalf o Zentrum fuumlr Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Wuumlrttemberg (ZSW) Vorbereitung und Begleitung bei der Erstellung eines Erfahrungsberichtes gemaumlszlig sect 20 EEG (2008)

EEG 2004 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich (2004)

EEG 2009 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich und zur Aumlnderung damit zusammenhaumlngender Vorschriften (2008)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

36

Aring 4Auml JN6

41 JN6uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

411 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬʹş42000ƀ3 447 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 2121 MW1ŀdivide3( 228 MWȳͶoumlɯ3ş0)GͶoumlɯ1DGƀ3ɯouml42000ƀ3 08 TWhE 2008ƀ3 43 TWh1ŀdivideGǞ2008ƀ3Uh3ʱȸouml4 119 TWh-)ampͶoumlɯ3ʁǴɶȔ42008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 2000 MWdivideG-G3ɶȔ3ƭ1DFˬʹȽgtG4ƈˬ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʱş4ʢ 4000 MW10G2009ƀ14950 MW3ȳͶoumlɯ3THORNǸŐHGȳͶoumlɯ3ɶȔOacute42020 ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 6000 MW 1G-Graquo EU 3aumlɣė˃SrYƿplusmn3ʻyacuteKɄGamp34 2020ƀ=-3ɶȔOacute45178 MW-G x 4-1 D7Ugrave 4-1 4-2 4D7ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71ěƀƄ3

ʁǴɱD7ǴɱɶȔOacute3currenɂ-Gszlig3şmg4ěƀǶ3mg-Gɏ1ɫƧ-GU

h4ǠœͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ14ɶȔOacuteKŚ0

x 4-1 JN6uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 and Rijksoverheid 2010

2000ƀ3ƀŨTHORNş4ĝƀǶ3ʦʏˬOtildeşĝ ş1ˬŚHampUgrave 4-21ʆȜģƀŨTHORNş4

ǑĐampͶoumlɯaRZn3ȜģˬOtildeşKĠL-GUgrave 4-2 1ʆamp2009 ƀE 2012 ƀ=- 2012ƀE 2020ƀ=-3ěǴ3ȜģƀŨTHORNş4ě3Ǵ3ſĹƀŨTHORNşKʆGsup23˘1ʆˬOtildeş4UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ1ļ+ˬOtildeş3currenɂ-GRijksoverheid 2010Ϳ

37

Ugrave 4-1 JN6IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0447 0485 0672 0905 1075 1224 1453 1641 1921 2727 6000

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0108 0228 0228 5178

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 andRijksoverheid 2010

Ugrave 4-2 JN6regwoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0038 0038 0187 0233 0170 0149 0229 0188 0280 0202 0409

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0 0 0 0619

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010Rijksoverheid 2010

412 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1ǝamp0 FIT ĽŌ˩ɩ-G SDE ˮȲ 7ŨTHORNHamp3 SDE bX3-Ͷoumlɯ3ś3ɯ]bn1˟ĜotildeŀĕEgraveȉoumlčEgraveȉ1divideǓƱJHGE1aumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗93Ʒ

1fynʌiacuteUacuteLjʹKɥGjnSDEotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3Ȃʩgtatilde-ȏ˪HG

42 JN6VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-Uh3deg˘ɱ0D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZnK˷ǥG

421 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh4 2003ƀ1szligːǨ|b-ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎG FITiacuteƄKŨTHORNamp2006ƀ=-4

szligːǨ 18000 Ǩ=-3aRZn1ťǰ- 10 ƀ FIT NjAEligHamp2008 ƀE3 FIT 1DGǓǎ4szligːǨ 2200 Ǩsup23aRZn1ť˖JHG10)ampſĹszligːǨ4ƀʢ2000Ǩ-$3ˊɱ0ʜı4ƀ 16002800Ǩ-G Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4FITǓǎ3˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZnKʆGĎȲ263

aRZn-4$3Pq`NlOz3ņĄǕɱ1ś˖ė˃0]bn3|KˬŚGdeg˘ɱ0

34 15 MW3ũˠȕQOoyM-ͶoumlɯaRZn3ņĄ 23 MW3ͶgɷƑ 90 mtz 60Έ80 mͿKAuml)G3ĸĻ-4iacuteˬEHFHE3ĸĻ-4tz 4060 m3 450800 kWͶˊɱ-G

(b) ccedil-1 aRZn3deg˘ɱ0Ʒ]bn4 1000kW1390okWͿE 1600kW2224okWͿ

=-Fˊ1Ʒ]bnszligːǨAŅ0)G

ˮȲ 7 SDE (stimulering duurzame energie) UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrYD7ɖAtildeʬ1GǓǎbX ĎȲ26 đɔaRZn134Ƿccedilǿ-ɥampđɔb13KƿA3-401ȲƧ

38

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3atildeˮ4ɯouml1D)ŃuumlGA3 9Έ12 kWh13Έ17 okWhͿż4ɥ

ŐE 5ƀ3^wbŋʢ1DGͿˬOtildeş1D)ŃuumlGA3 25kW35okWͿĸdegʡʭʡ]bnKĠͿ-GƔʿ3Oacute4aRZn1D)˒ɮ0Gś3ʰƾ4ƀ 23otildeĜ-ŀdivideGƦŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷKēǧampƀ|b3Ouml 80-˺GaR

ZnKɥG˚ugrave3NjAEligʿ-GͿǕƃ4ˇŹǷɞ 15D7Oumlɞ 6ͼKȜƦŚGoumlmiddotʇ4ub`n1ļ+˺K˖)GȰlaquoʌ4 255ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A 0ĔTHORNɅ4Yacuteəźľ-3Ǵŋʢ1DGoumlł-FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ1D)yacuteYj

K)Gyumlƽɱ0dividePdlOzfynSrYƷotildeƊ1D)NjAEligHG

3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4˹ʌė˃0ĔTHORNɅKƾamp0ɯbrvbarȐʿKĠ==0brvbarȐiquest1ɥHF1

43iacuteƄ1DFƯƖʌ 421ťeumlɲKƖGɯbrvbarȐʿAG

(f) Q54Q1 -ɥampmg4Uh3 FIT otildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3˩ʙ-ɥampđɔaRZn3agrave˘mg-

G (Lensink et al 2009 Cleijne et al 2010)

422 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh3ȳͶoumlaRZn-4ƈˬ˴ėKƖǰņ 50 m2ˠȕ3QOoyMKƈˬG-

Gƕ)deg˘ɱ0ȳaRZn3ˬOtildeş4 100Έ300 MW-Fʡʭ1NjAEligHGȜģɯouml4szligːǨ 3300Έ4000ǨɸƎ-G2008ƀ1 Prinses AmaliaQOoyMřƭamp1ʆmg14$3]bnȒ4ƛAĠ=H0

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4 2500Έ3500kW3475Έ4865okWͿ-G2008ƀ1řƭampaRZn4$

3ǘƀntilde1Famp˴ė3iacuteǼacute3ampȣɱũĺ3 V90ĺ 2 MWͶKɥG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ɥbrvbarȐʿ3ɥśʷ3Ū01DFʰƾ14ņ0ʄśƟœķGƀʰƾ4 90

kW125okWͿLJŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZn|b3˺ȒKɥF$3Ouml3otildeĜ4 50-GPrinces

AmaliaQOoyM3˺4aRZnȢ1˖)GWACC3ƦŚOacute4ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3Ƿ]bn3ordmOacute-H4 NuonShellƯDzG OWEZecirc3Ǡœ3ȳQOoyM1ɥEHampOacute-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A Ǡœ3QOoyM4Ǣ MEP˩ɩ1ļ+˚ugraveKĖF97MWh135oMWhͿ3ijŚ

FITĽŌKƖampfynPdlOz3˚ugraveɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 3mg4Ľɯ˘$3reg3agraveɱ1eumlɥ-GƥĽ1ļ+A3-ƥĽ1ŸɮGľĜ4ʆHamp

ƥĽ1ļ+m[-˚)G

39

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘1ěƀ1ƦŚampD7ȳͶoumlɯ3OacuteKʆ2007ƀ3aRZn]bn4 2008ƀǨ

ɏ3n1G-ʆGUgrave 4-5 3ouml3źľEgraveȉ14ĕƊ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnǴŋʢ3otildeƊɞĠ=HG

Ugrave 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 1 15 120 NA Ͷļǘ ļ 1 5 60 NA ɯ szligːǨ 2000 2200 3350 NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 15 NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1120 (1557) 1325 (1842) 3315 (4608) NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 40 (56) 24 (33) 92 (128) NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) NA NA NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

Ugrave 4-4 JN6uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 5 5 5 NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 15 15 12 NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 50 NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 50 NA WACC ͼ 60 60 79 NA

Ǵ ƀ 10 15 10 NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 255 255 255 NA

FXn $US 139 139 139 NA

Ugrave 4-5 JN6uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (81) 56 (78) 59 (82) NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 663 (922) 28 (39) 97 (135) NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ 37 20 44 NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

43 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ƛ˞0˴ėKƖG3ampogP0)

G

40

431 JN6uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 4-2 JN6rmicroQ1plusmnecircxpsup327

(b) BL0+dj Uh3Ͷ3ːɞ4ʢ 25-FszligːǨ 2200 ǨͿđɔb3 30DFAfrac12FIT 1DG

˚ugrave4szligːǨ 2200 ǨKGG4 SDE ˠiacute3˳ʧKʾƬ$HDFAfrac12ˬŚHGͿamp2200ǨDFAŅɯGamp3PdlOz4ŚHGE1˞0˞į4B4FͶȯ-G

432 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4Đ3ĪͲ1EcircGė˃ƟGszligːǨ 2200Ǩsup2KɯGPdl

Oz4ŚHGͶ3ˬ˩$HHBBɮ0)Fƕ)EgraveȉŘ0Gė˃Ɵ4ǃ-0

Aring5ĝ ɯȗKAuml)AgzoũľĜƷ]bnfrac12szligːǨŀdivideG

(b) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ0)Gį4ĸdeg3-Fƀʢ 10kW15okWͿ-G

(c) ccedilntildeacirciacute-113T-1 đɔbȣGUh3Ͷoumlɯ4Ȱlaquoʌȣɱfrac12 (255ͼ) eumlɏAGǑĐ]bn

4ʾƬ0

433 s_F(=2E

Uh3ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ43ʍ͵3PdlOziacuteƄ3ơƣKĖG-G$30A34 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ-2007 ƀ=-1HK˞ȨampaRZn1ťMEP ˮȲ 81DF 10 ƀijŚotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligH2008 ƀsup21HK˞ȨampaRZn3ľĜ4SDE 1DF 15 ƀŃuumlotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligHG3 FITiacuteƄ1divideaRZn3ľĜ4ǰņƷ]bn 600kW834okWͿ1ťƷ]bn3 443ʌdž3Ʒ˚ugrave (EIA) D7otildeƊɞ 13fynKeumlɥG

ĎȲ27 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ ˮȲ 8 MEP (Milieukwaliteit Elektriciteitsproductie) Uh3oumlɣɤ1GȰƓ

41

-G

x 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup328

434 aringmH7B

Uh3yacuteYj42007 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn1˧5Ugrave 4-6 đɔͿʢ ndash36 MWhndash50oMWhͿPpb3Oacute10)GH4Đ3MEP3 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3ˬ˩3Ș1DGA3-˚ugraveͳ3ļɵ0)ampoumlEgraveȉK 2Έ3 MWh3Έ4 oMWhͿfrac12ƦŚamp1DGoumlEgraveȉ 6~8 MWh 1ǤG1HŪ0AoumlEgraveȉ4ͶoumlaRZn4ż1ͺoumlɱ0A310)ampƔʮiacuteƄ-G SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ1ļ+ 2008 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn143ȘĕFHyacuteYj4 ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿBBPpb3Oacute10)GěʍaRZn3ɯ]bn3Ž4ndash3 DFA4G1ņɏ1ȲƧG3ampndash3MWh4oMWhͿPpb3Oacute4eKņĮGA3-40 ȳͶoumlɯ3b3yacuteY4Ɗʯ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-)ampH4ɷDžƖampyacuteƥ

Ľ1ļ+A3-40Princes AmaliaQOoyM3Ȫʙ1İɣ amp4ǥE-G

44

Uh4ŧǽ1A 2020ƀ1AD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Dzdz0ɶȔOacuteKŚGɠķ3 SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ4HKśɠGamp3ǰA˞0k-G43 Eacute3ccedilǿʫȁEUh3brvbarAring1GyacuteYj4ʹ˒-40JG ugraveKƖampɯouml4szligːǨ 2200Ǩ=-1iacuteHG3ǘOacute4Uh3Ͷȯ1ċampA3-G2200Ǩsup23ɯ1ťGPdlOz4ŚHFHAƷ]bnfrac123į-Gė˃ƟGʰƾ4ĸdeg3ampȣɱ

0)G

ĎȲ28 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

42

Ugrave 4-6 JN6Iumlsectpsup329

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

91 (126)

94 (131)

166 (231) NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

127 (177)

96 (133)

161 (224) NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash36 (-50)

ndash3 (-4)

5 (7) NA

rOtildemiddot

Cleijne JW SM Lensink and CJ Faasen (2010) SDE Wind op land met vollasturen en differentiatie [SDE wind onshore with full load hours and differentation] ECN-E--10-001 Petten January 2010

Lensink SM JW Cleijne M Mozaffarian AE Pfeiffer S L Luxembourg and GJ Stienstra (2009) Eindadvies basisbedragen 2010 [Final advice SDE premium base rates 2010] ECNKEMA ECN-E--09-058 Petten November 2009

Rijksoverheid (2010) Nationaal actieplan voor energie uit hernieuwbare bronnen Richtlijn 200928EG [National Renewable Energy Action Plan Directive 200928EG] Den Haag June 2010

Statistics Netherlands (2010) online databank httpstatlinecbsnl VoorburgHeerlen August 2010

ĎȲ29 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

43

Aring 5Auml 1CN

51 1CNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bP3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯŮ1G=ampɚŚ3 EU 3ɶȔ1ļ+ CO2ǃaeligethȿ3amp

1 2020 ƀ 2030 ƀ1ƦŚHGɶȔOacuteKʆE1ˠiacute3ȂʩgtK˷ǥGraquo$30Ȓƭ˞ʥK˟ɷordfȾoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3]bn3ƐKŪ0Gamp1ɠķ˖JHGͿ E1 2008ƀ1GbPźľ3deg˘ɱ0QOoyM3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) K˷ǥ$3sup3

ŚKregĴ1GͶoumlɯ3]bnȣG

511 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac12frac34laquo

2009ƀǶǨɏ-Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4 19149 MW1bP3oumlʡʭ1 3ɭɶ1ņ0Ʌ0)GbP3Ͷoumlɯɯ4 90ƀdegĄ51Ő=F2001ƀsup24ǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşƀſĹ-ʢ 1800MWdivideHampˠiacuteǔȜHamp 2004ƀ 2007ƀ14Ĵɟplusmn 4362004D7 6612006Ϳ3şņŽ1ŀdivideamp3ˠiacute3ǔȜ1DF$HKeumlɥampǝˠaRZn3ʑ(EumlHamp

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯouml42009ƀ3bP3SrYʱ˞3ʢ 14KĈG x 5-14ŅĴȣ3ťƀ-G 2008ƀ=-1bP1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3H=-3ʦʏˬOtildeş

ƀŨTHORNşKʆG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3mg4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3SrY˖uuml˩ɩNREAPͿ1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)2020ƀ3currenɂ4SrY˞3 20Kaumlɣė˃SrY- EU3ɶȔƭ1ğampǘOacute-G

x 5-1 1CNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

x 5-1 4bP-H=-1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşD7notƔˬʹHG˟=HGˬOtildeşKʆG=ampƀŨTHORNşKx 5-21ʆ2009ƀbPǕƃ4 2010ƀE 2012ƀ=-3ěƀ1ˬʹG MWşKiacuteGamp3otildeƎKŚG1amp=ampoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3ƐKȿ Gamp3˩ɩKnotƔ3Ȱplusmn1ʩgtL-ɯ˘ampszlig3aumlɣė˃SrY]aRr`3

Ĝ˩ş 6000 MW4ʱoumlĕƊ3 25KĈH4ʪȽĊȗ-4ɚ1]bn-GͿ

44

bP1GȳͶoumlɯ30Ł4ņȍ0-F3ampȮų3ȦȻ 50m 10)Gƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ-4ͳ0ļʅ˞0F$3ampHE3aRZn3ś˖ė˃Ɵ4iacute

HGE1aacuteʡɏ-4ȺĀŇɓWbļĸ1ˬʹHG]uPo^PZWbgw3

ɯ1DG~nrjZœķGampNZdbşEHampA310)G

Ugrave 5-1 1CNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

16 22 34 49 62 85 100 116 151 167 23 35

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 5-2 1CNoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

16 06 12 15 13 23 15 16 35 16 15 14

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

512 s_CcedilN3N9A

Ȱɱ1currenƦHGEacuteɲKĖGamp14ͶoumlɯaRZnKɚecirc3iacuteƄ131ccedil͵Gƛ˞G

ʟĴ3ȉ˴ŚiacuteƄĝȓͿH4ͶoumlɯaRZnʡʭ1UacuteYacuteDžʯ-GũłbrvbarȐʿAacuteocircouml

KĕE250E0Ϳamp=ampEgraveȉˠiacuteHGamp-GĴɟƿplusmn 6612007-˘ǥHampD1Ͷoumlɯ3ǓƱbX14ˠiacuteǛbXźľĎɡ3 2G

ˠiacuteǛbX4QOoyMƯDzʿƸampǴ1GͶoumlɯ3ʻyacuteɱ0ijŚĕƊ

Egraveȉ-Gx 5-23ǘOacuteͿ ǰʨɱ0Egraveȉ 1Ǩ3ɪEgraveȉoumlPdlOz1ļ+oumlčźľEgraveȉ3ʩgtĜJ-Ȫ=GI3źľĎɡ4ĽŌ13AĤ5HGƕ)ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿĖĕGǛ4

Egraveȉ1ŷęHG10F3Egraveȉż1frac12ľĜ4ǰfrac12Egraveȉsup2-H5ˬ

EHGx 5-34ˠiacuteǛ3đɔOacuteKʆG

x 5-2 Ucircgntilde1)QEAcirc ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

45

ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ4ntildeǡźľ3ɯ˩ɩKNjaeligcurrenɂKɥ3˩ɩś3ɯouml3currenɂ˶ŸKȿE

D1GE1==0ĸĻ1ƈˬHampQOoyMɸuml1˚Ugrave-˶ŸKŪ0Gamp

1==0aRZn[ĀHG3`bl1DFN``bl3ȴɥ

ʬ˺ǙKǰĀG-$3]bn34ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿǓƱ)G2008 ƀ4ʢ 15 MWh205oMWhͿ-)amp ˫3Oacute4Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120071D)ȸʿEgraveȉƿǘ (CPI) 1ļ+ǭǝH2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝ

ɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp x 5-34Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073ǟ˖sup2Ɣ3 FITǛiacuteƄ3ŃuumlKʆampA3-G2007ƀĴɟƿplusmn 6612007

1DF CPI1Ȯ) FITǔ˨HG10F2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp2010ƀ14ǭǝHampOacutePpb10FntildeƀKĮ)ampH4 CPIe1)ampamp-G bP3ʡʭɥʿ-G Red Electrica de Espantildea (REE) 1DH5ˬ Otildeş3 94ijŚEgraveȉĕU`

1D)ɥHGampčoumlźľEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ƐH0x 5-4Ϳ

x 5-3 ~BINcentIcircceyuml~[umlāntildeĀ ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

x 5-4 dividejo~uumljfrac14divideethyuml2008Ā ǛΆ Spanish TSO (REE)

Ͷoumlɯ3ņccedil4čźľ-ɷDžłHGampĽ4Egraveȉ1ņŷęHŇɓWbEgraveȉȦouml

ɯ3ɛȯ0E71Ĵźľ1G CO2 Egraveȉ3Egraveȉ1ƐG3amp 2008 ƀ14ſǡEgraveȉ4 6443MWh8956oMWhͿ0F2007ƀ3 3935MWh5470oMWhͿK 64Į)ampH4ɠķ=-1˫HampEgraveȉ-ǰAͳ-G Ͷoumlɯ3źľĕƊEgraveȉKx 5-31oumlčEgraveȉKx 5-51ʆYacute1ampD1Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073brvbar

Aring-43Egraveȉ4E=-3ʜıatilde1GſǡoumlčEgraveȉ1ļ+EgraveȉĽŌ3Ĝ˩Oacute-G

46

x 5-5 dividejBQK[umllcedilyuml2003Ą2009Ā ǛΆOMEL and Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

52 1CN 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-2008 ƀ1GbP3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKHKreg3đdivideĴ1GͶoumlɯɯ3ěʍmȣG

521 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

ɚecirciquestiacute13`blKeumlɥGamp14bP3QOoyM3ˠȕ 50 MWK40E0ˬ ʹampQOoyM3ſĹˠȕ4ʢ 25 MW-˩ ʙQOoyM3ˬOtildeşK 2007ƀA 2008ƀA 30MWsup3ŚG Ğɶ3ɥǨ4Śȉaeligouml-ƀ 1700ǨE 2350Ǩ=-==-G2008ƀ3szligĴſĹ4 2085

ǨͿ=ampaRZn3đɔOacute4 2007ƀ- 2200Ǩ2008ƀ- 2150Ǩ-)amp bP-ɥEHGszlig3ʪȽm-4aRZn3ɥǴ4 20ƀGraquoH4Q

OoyM3śʷ4E0Ϳ2007ƀ 2008ƀ14aRZn3Py^PZK 20ƀG

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹˠȕ4 1985 kW-2007ƀ3 1621 kWEJ1ŀdivideamp3m-ȏ˪G34 2000 kW3Ͷ0J(3QOoyM-4 2 MW3Ͷ 15ļͿ-G

x 5-6 2008THORNOacuteuumlegrave2bszlig ǛΆ Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

47

(b) ccedil-1 ƀ3Ʒʱͳ0)amp34Zb III D7 IV ˮȲ 93ņĺͶoumlɯ˙ʹˬʹHampE-

FƎeacuteEĶʡʭ93ʡBěʍʌcurrenɂHampJ-40 $H1AJEƀ4ĎǺǛ]bn3frac121DFͶ3]bnȿŪG=ampǕĊȗˠiacute3

Ńǭ1DFͶ3˞Afrac12ampQOoyM93Ʒʱͳ1ĈGͶ3]bn4ʢ 70Έ73ͼ-G3]bn4ĎǺǛ3Egraveȉɠķ3[jo]o1Ɇ ampƛ˞0ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵ1šDž1EcircG

2007ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn14Ʒ]bn4 1233kW1714okWͿ2008ƀ14 1250kW1738okWͿLJŚHG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾAaeligoumlƶiacuteȒatildeoumlȸ3amp3oumlǛˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵŀamp1DFŀdivide

Gʰƾ4 2007ƀ 1910MWh2655oMWhͿ2008ƀ 1963MWh2729oMWhͿLJŚHG100ͼŃuumlͿHE3]bn4|3ŃuumlƟdegǯĦ3eumlɥė˃Ɵƛ˞HGɕʶƴ˗ʿBȗȋ˙ʹ)amp˞į1G Ͷoumlɯȗ3^Pc4ƼņGͶȯ3ǰAD^Pn4-1eumlɥHGampŚȉǨ4ȿŪ

G10G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȞĘɱ1bP-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯKbPĴatilde3˖3oumlD7ŘŚampȰɱȂ

ʩgt1ļ+aRZn3yacuteiquestiacute1D)˺amp$H1AJEȵuumlƟKȘamp˺iacute

Ƅ3amp13 2ƀ-ɛȯŃĀAgraveE3ƺIgrave1DGIgrave˯ƛ˞10)G ˺]bn42007ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ1ˬŚHG2007ƀ2008

ƀAǷOuml3ȣɞ4 2ť 8-G2008ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A źľ93ł1DGĔTHORN42007ƀ1 394MWh548oMWhͿ2008ƀ1 644oMWh895o

MWhͿ-)amp3ĔTHORN1ť2007ƀ1 348MWh483oMWhͿ2008ƀ14 215MWh299oMWhͿ˰EgraveHamp FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideHGFITǕʘǴ4(E3bA 20ƀ1ijŚHG

(f) Q54Q1 1ʆampmg4bPͶoumlɯąmiddot (AEE) D7 Intermoney śǟampʃʐ1ļ+A3-G

522 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

bP3ȳͶoumlɯSN4 62SN1ccedilotildeHHE3SN-4ͶoumlɯˠiacuteHGHE3SN1ťTHORNǸ˖JHG10G3śɱPq`NizK5currenɂHGQOo

yM3ˠȕ4ʢ 1000 MW-G

(b) ccedil-1 mg0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig mg0

ˮȲ 9 Zb III4sectʬ˵Ũɯȗ (DFIG) D7ccedilŚȉ3]ugKɥampͶZb IV4ĝǴɯȗD7y

Śȉ]ugE0GͶccedil͵HG3ccedil͵ǞȰ3˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

48

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mg0

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A mg0

(f) Q54Q1 mg0

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 5-25-54sup23 LCOEccedilǿ-ɥampm[3ntildeNjǼacuteKʆA3-G]bn3sup3Ś4szlig 2007

ƀ 2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZnK˘A3-2008ƀnǨ3-˘ʆG

Ugrave 5-3 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 30 30 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ 15 15 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ 2200 2150 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1233 (1714) 1250 (1738) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 191 (266) 196 (272) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA

Ugrave 5Ă4 1CNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 9 10 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 6 7 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 NA NA Ǵ ƀ 15 15 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 30 30 NA NA

FXn $ 139 139 NA NA

Ugrave 5-5 1CNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 53 (74) 54 (75) NA NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 34 (47) 35 (49) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ

ͼ 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 20 20 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 36 (51) 37 (52) NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

49

523 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 5-7 1CNrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup330

(b) BL0+dj bP3ͶoumlɯaRZn4đɔbDFAˬOtildeeumlɥɞfrac12ͶȯbP3szligːǨ1Ɛ

GampbP3 LCOE4đɔb3 LCOEDFA 18MWh25oMWhͿ0)Gđɔb3ſĹːǨLJŚ 2680Ǩ-G31ťbP4 2150Ǩ0)G szligːǨ4bP3 LCOE đɔb3 LCOE 3Ÿɮ13ǰA˞0Ńǘ-GͶȯ1divide

ʰƾAđɔbKĮ)FH14ĸdegD7ĸĻBˇȬiquest˞ȨGeumlɲɞAĠ=HG LCOE33˷ǥ0Gʖ 33˞į4˺]bn-F3ͳ4aRZn3WACCD7ǰʨɱ

1ě3Ʒ1˞ȨHGƷĔɲɞ (ROI) KŀdivideG

(c) ccedil-1 bP3Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4ʢ 1250kW1738okWͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 200

kW278 okWͿŘbP-4Ʒ]bnfrac12ampLCOE 4 10 MWh14 oMWhͿfrac120G ǑĐ]bn4QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘʨpoundamp3ɯˬOtilde3˥iquest]bnKĠampͳ-ʱƷ]

bn3ʢ 3ͼKĈG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bP3brvbarAring1Gyacuteɛȯ1ˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlɲɞ4đɔbDFA0)G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig bP-4ʰƾđɔbDFA0)GbP3ʰƾʱͳ14ʌĸdeg

ʚɡ]bnKĠamp3ŃuumlĠ=HGnotƔ3ʪethȿoumlˇŞȸǛ3ǤˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ

˜Ɵ3=F1DFʰƾAŀdivideG˟gt-G ſĹbP3ʰƾ4ʢ 196MWh272oMWhͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 7

MWh10oMWhͿ

ĎȲ30 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

50

524 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

Yacute1ampD1bP14 FIT iacuteƄͶoumlɯ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄͿźľiacuteƄźľEgraveȉͶoumlɯ3ĽŌͿ 23ǓƱiquestʡG2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ3ʢ 91ͼKźľiacuteƄ1DFłampH4ɯȐʿDFŅ3ĔTHORNKƖEHGamp-G x 5-8 4ĔTHORN3ŃǘȥǛͿͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOz3ŃǘbP1GźľiacuteƄ

3ĽŌͿKȣampA3-G

x 5Q-8 1CNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup331

525 aringmH7B

bP3mccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿ-G3EſĹbP3ͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOzEaRZnɯ

3yacute˞acuteKɄamp-G3ăccedil0Xj`yKƖGJG

53 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 5Ă6 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+psup332

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

76 (106)

83 (115) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

87 (121)

86 (120) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash11 (ndash15)

ndash3 (ndash4) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2009) ldquoEoacutelica 09 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Julio 2009)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileANUARIO20COMPLETO5B15Dpdf

ĎȲ31 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ32 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

51

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2008) ldquoEoacutelica 08 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Junio 2008)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee- publicaAEE_anuario_ingles08pdf

AEE ndash Intermoney (2006) ldquoEstudio de costes del sector eoacutelico Realizado por Intermoney para AEE (2006)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee-publica060612-Gen-EolicaEsp- PRALpdf

Comisioacuten Nacional de la Energiacutea (CNE) wwwcnees

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Red Eleacutectrica de Espantildea (REE) Spanish TSO wwwreees Royal Decree 6612007 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacionRD_661-2007-REpdf Royal Decree 4362004 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacion(36)RD436_2004pdf Spanish Market Operator (OMEL) wwwomeles

52

Aring 6Auml 1$QN

61 1$QNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bQRm3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙ0E71 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿK˷ǥG

611 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş42004ƀ1 474 MW)amp3 2008ƀǶ14 937 MW0)Gx 6-1ͿbQRmĆ3ȳQOoyM3ˬOtildeş4 2007ƀ14 110 MW-)amp=ampqN`N133Ƀ-3ɯAEHG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯcurrenɂ4EUdivideɳĴ3ěĴaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 3mg1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)

x 6-1 1$QNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_Uacuteuacute

ǛΆVinkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 and European Commission 2010 Ugrave 6-14bQRm1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=amp

Ugrave 6-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 6-1 1$QNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

220 220 272 322 381 429 470 560 698 951 2065 4365

ȳ 10 20 23 23 23 23 23 23 133 133 150 182

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

53

Ugrave 6-2 1$QNoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

ndashndashndash 05 51 50 59 48 41 90 138 253 278 288

ȳ ndashndashndash 10 25 0 0 0 0 0 110 0 4 4

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

612 s_CcedilN3N9A

bQRm-4aumlɣė˃SrY1DGɯ3ǓǎʘĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ (TGC) KŨTHORNG$3ɶɱ42016ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 17 TWh1ŀB-G3ɶȔOacuteK2020ƀ=-1ė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 25 TWh1GE1OacuteGampɠķ3iacuteƄ3ǔȜȏ˪HG=ampbQRmsQR3aacute`bl3Ȓʝ1ğampordfȾ˖J

HG 2008 ƀ=-4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ˖ɢĿĽŌ13AĤ5HGijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) Ͷoumlɯ

1ɥHamp3ɢĿĽŌ134ȳͶoumlɯ14 2009ƀ=-eumlɥė˃-)amp=amp 2003ƀ1vPjnaRZn3Ǔǎ˩ɩŐHampȳͶoumlɯţaringȥNtildeȎȀĸŻ-3Ͷoumlɯ)

ampˉģȻ˟0HampaRZn12008 ƀE 2012 ƀ=-3Ǵ1 3710 5160 oͿ3currenʙotildeƎEHG

2006 ƀʈǕƃ3ɢĿƐccedilǿ1Gˠiuml0E71ǝˠͶoumlɯaRZn3˴ėdbʞɬĀH25 MW=-3QOoyM4ˇȬiquest1ŭaeligH5ˬʹ-G0)amp ͶɅ3eumlɥ1GƥĽKƁcedilGampbQRmǕƃ3Ũ3Ͷoumlɯ3eumlɥ1GĴatilder

jnZĎȲ33ȒʝHamp3rjnZ1DFͶoumlɯ3˩ɩʘŚD7˴ŚʋuacuteOslashoumlbrvbarȐ3ɯ

Ůʰƾʚɡ1Gʀ˾KȻbQRm3ͶoumlɯɯaRZnKEumlH

G E1Ͷoumlɯ3]mOrgKɥɯbrvbarȐʿEcircƎŬ0E71ĸUcircĸĻĴ3ě|1

GEcircʿ3ordfȵEumlKIJ)G

62 1$QNVUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

621 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bQRm-43aRZn3szligːǨ4 2600Έ3050 ǨĽġHGżbQR

m3Ͷoumlɯj1ʆHGszligːǨ4ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿNjaeligampǘŒKĮ)

G3amp˩ʙ-4bQRm3aRZn3ǰʨɱ0ͶoumlɯǨKĽġHampʜı3 2600ǨͿG

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3aRZn42008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZn3]bnD7ɯoumlēǧ

Hampdeg˘ɱaRZnŚʻHamp Ƿ]bn4ampF 12171915kW1692Έ2662okWͿ=-Fmccedilǿ-4 1591kW2212okWͿsup3Śamp

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3ijŚccedil4ſĹ 0004 kW0006 okWͿŃuumlccedil4ʢ 11 MWh15 o

ĎȲ33 httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse đɔ

54

MWhͿLJŚG3Ńuuml4 7 MWh10 oMWhͿE 24 MWh33 oMWhͿ=-FvPjnaRZn1Gʰƾ4ż1ŃuumlņɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒

ɮ0)G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 Ugrave 6-51ʆD1mccedilǿ-4OumleumlőKƷŞżĽġG 5˟L-GͶoumlɯ1Ʒ

GparaȐ3middot˩Ľġ3ccedilǿ-420ͼƍOuml]bnʆHGbQRm3paraȐccedilǿEŨaeligampƛ˞0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞʫ7macrOumleumlőɞK 5LJŚampľĜͶoumlɯ3]bnKũ˰EgraveG10F20

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ǵŋʢ1DGźľ93oumlłŨTHORNHGĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ

23ĔTHORN3ȵH1D)KƖG(E3ĔTHORNɅAʄśƟż12008ƀ=-FITĽŌiacuteƄAɥHFͶoumlɯaRZn4 2 MWh3 oMWhͿŪͳ3ĽŌKĖamp

(f) Q54Q1 LCOE˩ʙ3mg4˫3D0ɥǓǎ˩ɩ3ʫȁD7Ĵatilde3_3amp1bQRmSrY

Ŭ=ampmg)amp˜ǘ3ƥĽɅ1ļ+A3-GǑĐ]bn4 Svensk Vindenergi (2009) 3mgKAumlɥampbQRm3Ͷoumlɯ˩ɩ1Gʭ˩Oacute4bQRmSrYŬȢƀɯ˘

GĽġǮ ES20103 ldquoVindkraft statistic 2009 (Wind power statistics 2009)rdquoD7 Vindkraft Statistik 20081ļ+G2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯǨ4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ3mgKAumlɥGE1Ͷoumlɯ3ɯȐbrvbarʿEʆmg3NjAEligKĖamp=ampEcircGotildeƊɞKǥE1Gampmiddot˩ǛKđɔampE14˚Ǜ O2 0E71 AriseȇƉźľ3ŨTHORN1GbrvbarȐaeligɘəEŦŞ3Ƨ˟KƊɥamp

622 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

2008ƀǨɏ-ŨTHORNHampbQRmǰņ3ȳaRZn4Lillgrunden3 11 MW3aRZn-)amp3aRZn4 Vattenfall 2004ƀ1Ɗʮ2007ƀ1ʡʭ1ʡHampLillgrundenaRZn-4 Siemens3 23 MWͶ MKII 48ļAumlɥHG$3( 13ļ4 2004ƀsup2ntilde1ʡʭ1ʡHGbQRm3ǰǝaRZn4 3 MW3Ͷ 10ļKOtildeamp GaumlsslingegrundaRZn-H4 VaumlnernɃ3Ģ 7Έ13m1ļʅKˬʹampqN`N133aRZn-G

Ugrave 6-3 LillgrundenBL0+Z

Lillgrundenmg Ά ļɆȷDF 115 m gɷƑΆ 924 m ʱʏΆ 6734 m2 iacuteƗǞȰΆ ėŃxjiD7ėŃƄ gƄΆ 6Έ16 rpm ǰņYacuteʔƄΆ 280 kmh gΆ 60 t pdΆ 82 t gΆ 110 t LJŚƀɯoumlΆ 6875500 kWh ˬOtildeeumlɥɞΆ 35ͼ ſĹͶΆ 85 ms

55

Ugrave 6-4 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 235 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 41 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2600 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1591 (2212) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 0004 (0006) NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 16 (222) NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 6-5 1$QNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 12 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 87 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 13 NA NA WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 47 NA NA

Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 28 NA NA

FXn SEKeuro ndashndashndash 942 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

Ugrave 6-6 1$QNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 50 (70) NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 25 (35) NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 2 (3) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 1 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

623 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

x 6-2 1ʆD1bQRm3 LCOE 4đɔbDFʢ 1 MWh1 oMWhͿfrac120)G

56

x 6-2 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1psup334

(a) BL0+dj bQRm3szligːǨ4đɔbDFAH4ͶoumlɯaRZn1eumlɥ-Gĵĸʏ

^[ampreg3Țŵ˽ĴDFAņampƎɓ3-G

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3Ʒ4oumlɯaRZnTGC `bl2001 ƀEŨTHORNͿ0E71Ǡœ3 NordPool

ʡʭ1995ƀEoumlĕƊͿ3amp1đɔbDFABB0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig đɔbbQRm3ʰƾ3Ÿɮ4ǰũ3A3-H4^1DGė˃Ɵʹ˒

-40

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bQRm3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12H4bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ93Ʒ1

GbZ3|frac12E-FbQRm3Ͷoumlɯɯ1GʪEƎɓ3˧G

x 6-3 1$QNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup335

ĎȲ34 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

57

624 s_CcedilN3N9A

ĔTHORN4 1Ϳoumlł1DGĔTHORN2Ϳ[˯Ǯł1DGĔTHORN3ͿFITE3Ūͳ3ĔTHORN2009ƀ1ƆțͿ3 3-ȒƭHG ĔTHORN4źľE33ȵH-GampʄśƟņ0b-4ȥǛ4 50 MWh

70 oMWhͿ-ŘŚG˟0H[˯ǮEgraveȉ4ʢ 25 MWh35 oMWhͿ)amp2009ƀ1OacuteHamp

625 aringmH7B ſĹɱ0aRZn14ouml3źľEgraveȉ TGCiacuteƄ3˚UgraveKʩgtĜJG-ăccedil1]bnK

-GD-G

Ugrave 6-7 1$QNIumlsectpsup336

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 75

(104) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash8

(ndash11) NA NA

63 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 6-7 1ʆampD1bQRm3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˇŹǷ]bnD7Ouml]bnfrac12amp1ǷdivideſĹĎEgrave (WACC) ȣɱfrac120)GD-GaRZn3AEligʬ4Ouml1DGǷ˺1DGA3-macr3˺Ǵ4 20ƀ-G$HDFAmacrǴʁľĜA$EG˕Ǵ3ʨpoundǨ1ʸFHG bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ4ȞĘ=ampƀƞ1ƭG2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrY

ɅK 25 TWh1GɶȔKƭGamp14ͶoumlɯKE1ɯŮƛ˞G

rOtildemiddot

Dagens Industri wwwdise 2010-03-16 Storm kring vindkraftsbolag

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

E24 wwwe24se 2010-03-16 Vindkraftsbolagen anklagas foumlr glaumldjekalkyler Nationellt naumltverk foumlr vindbruk (national network for winduse) httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse

Svensk Vindenergi 2009 Vindkraftverk ndash kartlaumlggning av aktiviteter och kostnader vid nedmontering aringterstaumlllande av plats och aringtervinning

Vinkraftstatistik 2009 ES 20103 2010 Swedish Energy Agency available at

ĎȲ35 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ36 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

58

httpwwwenergimyndighetenseGlobalPressPressmeddelandenVindkraftsstatistik202009p df

Vindkraftstatistik 2007 ES 20082 2008 Swedish Energy Agency available at httpwwwenergimyndighetenseen

59

Aring 7Auml 11

71 11uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bPb3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙacirciquestɱ14 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿ3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1GbPb4atildeĴ-GampȳaRZn4œķ0ǪˤIgrave3ampɃȭĸĻ4ɠķͶoumlɯ^PnEńHG

711 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş41996ƀ3 2 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 14 MW1ŀdivideampͶoumlɯ1DGƀɯouml4 2000ƀ3 18 GWhE 2008ƀ3 2020 GWh1ŀdivideampH1ť 2008ƀ3ʱ˞ouml4 587 TWh-Gɠķ˩ɩEHGaRZn1D)2012ƀ14 65 MW3ɯė˃10GLJŚHGǕƃ3SrYǕʘ-4 2030ƀ1 44 MWKɯGɶȔKljG

x 7-1 11uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

Ugrave 7-14bPb1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 7-24ĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-1 11IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

28 28 451 455 456 866 116 116 116 136 176 65 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

60

Ugrave 7-2 11oacute_ethyumlMWĀ

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

28 00 170 065 001 350 290 002 000 200 400 150 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

712 s_CcedilN3N9A

bPb-4 2008 ƀ1oPkĝȓ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄFITͿKŨTHORNamp3`bl4LJŚHG LCOEKamp3A3-GFIT 1Ġ=HG34oumlźľEgraveȉ[ouml3Oacute-GͶoumlɯ14bPb3 FIT4 110MWh153oMWhͿΈ130MWh181oMWhͿ1ijŚHG

72 11VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

721 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZn42 MW3Ͷ 6ļKOtildeamp Juraű˅Ȕ 1000Έ1200 mͿ3

QOoyM-GbPb1GͶoumlaRZn3L2 MW3ͶgɷƑ 82 mtzʢ 8 0mͿKɥG3ĸĻ-4NZdbiacuteHGamp1gɷƑg31ˬEHFŚȉaeligouml 800Έ1000 kWtz 40~60 m3ͶKeumlɥG

(b) ccedil-1 bPb1Gdeg˘ɱ0aRZn3ě3Ʒ]bn4ampF 1790 kW2488 kWͿ-G

Țŵ1GͶ93Ʒ]bn3otildeĜ4ſĹʢ 76bPb-4 55~6810)G34bPb3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn93NZdbďiacuteHGamp=ampbPb-4laquoacuteż1amp-G

3ampɯƯ3ʪȣɱ0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ14bPb-4śʷŪ0ampEWEA agrave˘ampʰƾ3ȣ1ļ+bPb3ʰƾK 31MWh43oMWhͿsup3Śamp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 sup23˘4bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥamp˺]bnKʆG

Ugrave 7-3 ccedilntildeacirciacute-1YacuteEgrave

źľeuml 5 ƛ˞0Ƿeumlɲɞ 7

Ƿ3otildeĜ 30 ˀɥƀǘ 20ƀ ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ 20ƀ

Py 0 Ǵ 20ƀ

ȰlaquoʌɞOECDͿ 21

61

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A bPb14aumlɣė˃SrYɯ3brvbarȐeumlɥ-Gɜʑ3ĔTHORN`bl 2ʍ͵G 64 FIT `bl-H4sup23]bn˩ʙ3ļɵ0GA3-3ȽKĖEHG34Ȧoumlɯ

10 MWsup2atildeͿňɖɯͶoumlɯuPUb0E71uPUbƆǺ-Gaumlɣė˃SrYɅ[vͿ1DGɯ1ɥė˃03Ǜ`bl4ɯǞƉaeligoumlecirc1đɔˬOtilde1ļ+acirciquest

ɱ1ˠŚHěƴ˗3 LCOEK-Gshyʩgt10)GȽ4ɯǞƉ1D) 20Έ25ƀ3Ǵ1ɥHGcurrenƦHGƴ˗db0E71HE3ƴ˗3źľĀEuml1DFHE3Ǜ`bl

-4ͳ3Ƞɱfrac12currenƦHGǛ3ȿͳɥHG34ɰampɯˬOtilde3gt-FHE3ˬ

Otilde4ȽǴK ŚampǛ`bl1DFȽKĖGɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKLľĜ$HĝǨ1oumlźľ-[oumlKłG4-00G ʖ 2 3ĔTHORN`bl4[oumlźľ-GɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKeumlɥ-0ľĜ4źľ-

oumlKłG10Gż$3ĔTHORN4ɯbrvbarȐʿoumlmiddotʇ3ordfȾ1D)ȪŚHGoumlĽŌK

ouml3źľEgraveȉ1divideampͳ-G

(f) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşmg4 Swiss Wind Energy Association ldquoSuisse Eolerdquo1DGA3-GƷ]bn

ʰƾ3mg4 2008ƀ1˩ɩHampͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ȇ1DGA3-G˺]bn4 FIT˩ʙD7 Swiss Federal Office of Energy3mTHORNouml3sup3Ś1ļ+A3-G Ugrave 7-47-64bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOELJŚ1ɥampmĀ1Gsup3ŚKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-4 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 2 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 6 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 1750 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1790 (2488) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 31 (43) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 7-5 11uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 7 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 30 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 70 NA NA Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 21 NA NA

FXn CHFeuro ndashndashndash 067 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

62

Ugrave 7-6 11uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125 (174) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash Ńuuml NA NA

ɯȐʿTHORNȐʿ-ordfȾ

73 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯ]bn4ʢ 120MWh167oMWhͿ-đɔbDFA 58MWh81oMWhͿ0)G

731 -1plusmnecirc

x 7-2 11uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecircpsup337

(a) BL0+igraveeacuteOgrave bPb-ɯHampouml4đɔbDFA˒Ū00)GH4ͶoumlɯʋƄ-Gamp

-GszligːǨ 1750ǨͿ

ĎȲ37 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringěĴ LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0G

ľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

63

(b) ccedil-1 bPb3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAH4Ņ3^Pn93NZdbİ

˜-GD7laquoacuteamp-GbPb3aRZn4ũˠȕ03-ņˠȕ0aRZ

nȣͶTHORNǨ3otildeƊɞfrac120)G

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig bPb3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAɯƯ-4ɼȧcentȵĪͲ10)F$3ampʰƾʚɡ

]bn0)GbPb-4ʰƾ1Gśʷ4L0

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bPb3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ4 7HGraquoL3a

RZn4yacute3ɡɦ1DFƷ0oumlmiddotʇ˺Goumlmiddotʇ4[ouml3˞3

=F1ƚKŠG

732 s_F(=2E

bPb1GͶoumlɯ3 FIT4 110~130MWh153Έ181oMWhͿ-mĀccedilǿ-4 125MWh174oMWhͿKɥGĔTHORN3DF˳˷ǥ4 721ugrave(e) Kđɔ3|-4$Hsup2ń3yacuteǓǎ`bl40

x 7-3 11uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup338

733 aringmH7B bPb-4ǕʘPdlOz1DF LCOE K)Gx 7-3 EbPb3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaR

Zn-4 FIT1DF LCOEK˚)GJG

ĎȲ38 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

64

73

Ugrave 7-7 11uumljBL0+psup339

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 120

(167) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125

(174) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash5

(ndash7) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

Die Website fuumlr Windenergie-Daten der Schweiz Accessed at wwwwind-datach

Erlaumluternder Bericht zur Revision der Anhaumlnge EnV Bundesamt fuumlr Energie 2102009

Swiss Energy Act of June 26 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_0html

Swiss Energy Ordinance of December 7 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_01html

ĎȲ39 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

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65

Aring 8Auml Ecircz

81 Ecirczuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4ʟĴ1GD7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1$3]bn3ɚƙɚ1 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3ŚK˷ǥGȳͶoumlɯ14ʟĴ-4=$3ɯ1Gśʷ ampʞć1˦HG3gtG=ampAring 1 Auml1ʆampđɔbȣamp2008ƀ3ʟĴ3]bnccedilǿʫȁK˷ǥG

811 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

ʟĴ1GʦʏˬOtildeş42000ƀ3ʢ 25 GWE 2008ƀǶ3 25 GW1ŀdivideampx 8-1Ϳ2005ƀsup2ěƀƄ3ƀˬOtildeş4˫Kǭǝʯ2008ƀ14ǝamp1 85 GWdivideHampĎȲ402008ƀ14ǝˠɯşszligiquest3 42KͶoumlɯĈGſĹɱ0ƀ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeş1DFʟĴ3ʱȸouml3ʢ 19ͼKAEligʬ-GHG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)2008ƀ3ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4szlig3ͶoumlɯƯ1GǘOacute-GȳͶoumlɯaRZnA˩ɩHFɠķ4$3˴ėĕƖ

Ƞ1G x 8-1 4ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3Đ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71 2012 ƀ3currenɂD7 2030 ƀ

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66

4ɉķɱ0Ͷoumlɯ`pU3ccedilǿ1ļ+2030ƀ=-1ʟĴ-˟=HGouml˞3 20KͶoumlɯ-Ʉamp-GG (DOE 2008)3ʃʐ3LJŚ1DH520Pbn1Gamp14Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 305 GWƛ˞10GD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Ĝ˩Ϳ=amp3ʃʐ-42018ƀ=-1ƀˬOtildeşʢ 16 GW1ŀdivideGLJŚG Ugrave 8-1 4ʟĴ1GĐD7notƔcurrenɂHGʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 8-2 4Đ

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2012currenƦ

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ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54

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Ugrave 8-2 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (GW)

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ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

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812s_CcedilN3N9A

ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ3ampGĔTHORNɅ4oumlłaumlɣė˃SrYźľ˯ǥ (REC) -Gouml3ʪȽEgraveOacute REC3ł4ĸĻźľ$3reg3Ǽacute1DFaRZnȢ1ɮ0)G ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ4Ǖƃ3ʌiacute3UacuteLjʹ1D)ǓEHG2008 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ

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EgraveOacute1ļ+ͶoumlɯaRZn14PTC divideUgraveČ3sect3Eacuteɲ1DFļɆaRZn3ˬʹ]bn3 35KG˟gt-G (Bolinger 2010)ľĜ1D)4PTCdivideUgraveČ3˜Ĝɱ0ʪȽucircȁouml3ł REC3ĔTHORN1ʗ0GG4$HKĮG10G (Harper et al 2007)ĎȲ42

82 Ecircz 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

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Zn]bnɚƙ4ĸĻ1D)ɮ0FˬOtildeşAņ

ĎȲ42 H4Ͷoumlɯ3oumlȥǛĸUcirc3 RECEgraveȉ)ampĸĻ1D)ɮ0GǘŅ3˞į1ŷęHG

67

821 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ1G3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ſĹˬOtildeş4 1998Έ1999ƀ3ʢ 35 MWE 2007ƀ3 120 MW

=-F2008ƀ14 83 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ1ˬʹHampͶ3Śȉş4 05 MWǵɄE 3 MW=-F2008ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn-4ſĹ 167 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ3ǰAˊɱ0Ͷ4Śȉaeligouml 15 MWgɷƑ 77 mtz 80 m (GE2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) -G

(b) BL0+Ouml ͶɅ34aRZn1D)ņ1ɮ0)Gszligiquestɱ14ʟĴ-4ɡƦɱ0Ͷȯ10)G

ʟĴ3aRZn3szligːǨ4ʢ 1800Έ4400 ǨŃuumlņ2008 ƀ14şdivideſĹ 3066 ǨˤŤHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ43szligːǨ3LJŚOacute4 2007ƀ1ˬʹH 2008ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+A3-ʟĴszligiquest3ͶɅ3ɉķƟK|b1ampA3-40ɏ1ɫƧ-

G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn4ƀɼś1ŀdivideG2008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZ

n14Ʒ]bn4ǰfrac12ʢ 1000kW1400okWͿE 1800kW2500okWͿƍ=-FşdivideſĹ4 1378kW19195okWͿ-G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ44

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(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ14ijŚŃuuml3ǞĠ=H(E-˘ADş|b3]bn

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˃ƟG 2000ƀdeg1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯaRZn1Wiser Bolinger4 2000Έ2008ƀ3şdivideſĹ

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ʰƾʱͳ4Ńuuml-˘5 74MWh103oMWhͿijŚ-4ƀ 226kW314okWͿ-GĎȲ46ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3ʃʐ-42010ƀ=-3ʰƾKʢ 69MWh96oMWhͿBBfrac12˟ʏA)G (DOE 2008)ĎȲ47

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯɯaRZn3˺-4ˇŹ3otildeĜKaRZn|

b3OumlKlteampˇŹ3otildeĜ0)G34114ȞĘɱ1ɣɤʌdžǜʯɱ1˖JHampamp-GOuml1DG˺4ͶoumlɯaRZn3˺ǴKƊ=amp

˜1Gė˃ƟFE14ʪȽɱEgraveOacute3G PTCǴKŗH00GƠHG (Harper et al 2007) Ouml1DG˺KŪ0GǞğƟɣ amp34aRZnɯi`blSrYD

7Ǩ14ɢĿ˞ʥKĠͿ3aeligouml3˃ouml13KʰƾGKdzLamp-$3ampSrYŋʢǛ

ĎȲ43 ˬOtildeeumlɥɞ 35ͼ1ļ+ ĎȲ44 ]bn4szlig 2008ƀƄ3D7o-˘ʆ2008ƀ 12DZ 31ǡsup23onjʙ1ɥampɐǯn4 1

139o (Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ45 NREL3atildemg|bELJŚampɤʌǓƱͳ3ſĹ ĎȲ46 2008ƀ3ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71szligːǨTHORNoumlsup3Ś1ļ+ ĎȲ47 ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71 2008ƀƄ3szligːǨTHORNoumlLJŚOacute1ļ+ 2008ƀo1ŃnjampLJŚOacute

68

1ijŚG40)ampE-GʟĴ3Ouml3ư4ż`bl3szligaeligouml1ťSrYŋʢEgraveȉ

Kbrvbarntilde1ȪŚK˞ȨG (Cory and Schwabe 2009)E14 2008ƀƔĄ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ouml1DG˺4Ĵ˕źľ3˕ȴuumlbZĮ3amp˕Ċȗ3ntildeȣ˒İ10

)G (Schwabe et al 2009) mccedilǿ-4 100ͼǷƷKsup3ŚG3˺4 2008 ƀ1ʟĴ1ǃregɱ1-40ʸF

˖JHampȷń-4$Hˊɱ-40)ampͿmĀccedilǿ-42008ƀ1ƛ˞HampˇŹǷeumlɲɞK 75ͼsup3ŚG(Chadbourne and Parke 2009)3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ42008ƀ 10DZ3˕Ċȗ$31 100Έ200`bPnĽġHGǷ1DG˺]bnņŽ1ŀdivideampͿ3ƐKĖamp1ɫƧ-G (Chadbourne and Parke 2009 Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

(f) s_CcedilN3N9A ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3˞0ĔTHORNɅ41ͿǴŋʢG4źľ|b3Egraveȉ1ļ+oumlD

7aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3ł2Ϳɣɤʌdž3žĀ3ͿɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3dividełČ3 3ʍ͵-GʟĴ-4ouml RECł1DGĔTHORNĸĻD7źľ1D)˒ɮ0)Gouml14ˠiacuteHGH0REC14ˇɯɱaumlɣė˃SrYotildeƎʻyacuteKŗGͿmccedilǿ-4ĹʗdivideſĹͶoumlɯEgraveȉ3LJŚOacute4 ǴɱŋʢEgraveȉouml REC3ǞKĠͿčźľEgraveȉouml3gtͿ1 RECKecircdivideampEgraveȉ3Oacute10Gsup3ŚGĎȲ482008ƀ3ͶoumlɯEgraveȉ3ſĹ4ʢ 419MWh582 oMWhͿLJŚHGĎȲ49Py˺Ǚɣɤʌdž42008 ƀ14ʢ 151 MWh210oMWhͿHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)Ś3Ƿ]bn3divideUgraveČ4 6ƀ˩ɩ-˖JHm-4 1Έ6ƀɶ1$HH 20ͼ32ͼ192ͼ115ͼ115ͼ3otildeĜ-UgraveČHGĎȲ50

(g) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3mĀccedilǿ-4==0mgfbKɥampɚ1eumlɥė˃0agraveɱǛKUacuteYacuteamp

1ʆampszlig3mgfb3bnKǷʒ3đʾǚɝ1ʆaRZn3ɚƙaRZn3Ɵ˃

Ʒ]bnʰƾ)ampŃǘ14Wiser and Bolinger 20093ecirc˘1E1˳˷ǥG

822 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

ɠķ=-3IʟĴ-4ĩɥˠȕ3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥAring40ƈˬ3aRZnA

0ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3Ľġ-4= 2012Έ2018ƀ1ĩɥȳͶoumlɯ3ɯaRZnȶȦĻƴ˗KɥǾȷųȫ-ɱ1˖JHG10GǴƒHGđʾ3amp-4currenƦHGȳ

ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKʆampʟĴ-ɥHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn4=œķ0

ampHE3LJŚOacute4 LCOEmccedilǿ1Ġ0

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ3ȳͶ4|b3aRZnDFAņˠȕ0A310FDFˍō0ͶȯKeumlɥamp

ė˃10GGAring5^idjkŵ-ȏ˪HGCape WindȳͶoumlɯaRZn-4Ͷ3^PcK 36 MWGɯ˘0Hamp (Cape Wind 2010)szligːǨ3ʜı4 3000ǨEʢ4800ǨLJŚHG (DOE 2008)

(b) ccedil-1 ȳͶoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4Ńuumlņ2000 ƀdegĄ5E4ğtimesğ1GʟĴȚŵ-NjȊH

GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn13ƀ3˺Ȇ1DH5Ʒ]bn4ʢ 3100 kW

ĎȲ48 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3 43ͼ3aRZnƯDzʿ4GʋƄ3ĩȐbZK10G=amp

oumllO[ƺƎʿA3bZKė˃ƟGHE3ƺƎʿ4 2008ƀ1ͶoumlɯˬOtildeşKǝamp17ͼTHORNamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)3ccedilǿ-42008ƀ3ǝˠͶoumlɯ3 50ͼKźľ|b3Egraveȉ0J(ĩȐEgraveȉͿȟF3 50ͼKǴɱŋʢEgraveȉsup3ŚG

ĎȲ49 2008ƀ3Egraveȉ1Gsup23sup3Ś4Wiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+A3-sup23Fsup3ŚG(1)ǴɱͶoumlɯŋʢEgraveȉoumlRECͿ= 515oMWh(2)čłbjnźľEgraveȉ =5oMWh(3)aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ = 5oMWh

ĎȲ50 3UgraveČ˩ɩ4ƀĄ53ƫAring1ļ+A3-2008ƀ 2009ƀ1eumlɥė˃)amp 50ͼĽŌUgraveČ4ʾƬ0

69

4300 okWͿ-H4notƔǘƀ1ƈˬcurrenŚHGaRZn1GOacute-GĎȲ51H1ť

US Offshore Wind Collaborative-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn4 3300kW4600okWͿ10GcurrenɂG (USOWC 2009)

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn=ɥH0ampʰƾ3currenƦ4˒ʄśƟG

ɯ˘HGmg40ʟĴȚŵ-NjȊHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ1G

ǰ3˟ʏF1DH5ʱ]bn4ʢ 137MWh19oMWhͿ10GĎȲ52

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯ3ɯD7ɥ1bZ˟=HF=ampɯBɥ3ʪA0amp

Ǝeacute3(4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bnaRZnDFA4G10GcurrenƦ

HGȳͶoumlaRZn3˺-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3cedilʭɱ0ƷưȠ0J(Igrave

middotʇͿ-40bZ˭şƄ3ƷưȠ0J(Ȥ3ˇŹǷͿeumlɥHGƝJHGAring5Ȥ

3ˇŹǷƷ1ƛ˞HGeumlɲɞ4ś˯Gƴ˗1 25Έ350GcurrenƦHG (Justice 2010)=ampʟǕƃ4ĩɥD7ǝɱaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗3$Hͳ-0Ouml1DGǷ˺KǓǎ

Gamp3˕OgraveTHORNIgrave˯KNjAEligG(EAȳƴ˗1ɥ-Gė˃ƟAGͿraquoɠ˖Ȱ-4

˕Igrave˯˩ɩ3˺3eumlɥė˃Ɵ0E71ɧ˻ʿ3ȉEHG (DOE 2010) ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɥė˃0|ŵ|3PdlOz4ȳͶoumlɯaRZ

n1Aeumlɥ-Gsup3ŚHGǕƃ3PdlOz14˫3 PTCɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČĠ=HGɚ1ǾȷųȫcopyņɃĸĻ3ŵ4ě3ʚĂ1GȳͶoumlɯaRZnKEuml

Gamp3==0ǞȰKeumlɥHE3aRZnKŨG (USOWC 2009)

(e) Q54Q1 ȳͶoumlɯ3ɚƙ1G˞0mgɅ4ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution

to US Electricity SupplyrdquoĽġǮ (DOE 2008)US Offshore Wind Collaborative3US Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo0E71ʟĴ3ȳͶoumlɯ1Gěʍ3Ľɯ˘ʗ-GraquoǰƔ3A314ȲƧƛ˞-G

Ugrave 8-3 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ53

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ54 ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 165 167 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ͷļǘ ļ 73 50 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ɯĎȲ55 szligːǨ 2891 3066 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1241 (1725) 1378 (1915) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʰƾ ijŚͿĎȲ56 eurokW ($kW) 50 (70) 50 (70) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʰƾ ŃuumlͿĎȲ57

euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (80) 58 (80) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

$3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆWiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ51 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ52 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ53 Yacute1ampD1]bn4szlig 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆ ĎȲ54 3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙ4ntildeʛ1ʆGȳͶoumlɯ4ʟĴ3 LCOEccedilǿ14Ġ0 ĎȲ55 eumlɥɞ 2007ƀ 33ͼ2008ƀ 35ͼsup3ŚG (Wiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) ĎȲ56 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampş|b3ʰƾ4 2007ƀ 2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG ĎȲ57 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampɯouml|b3ʰƾ42007ƀ2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG

70

(f) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 8-38-5 4ș1G LCOE ccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3sup3ŚKʆG]bn3sup3Ś4HA 2007 ƀ

2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1GA3-2008ƀƄ3o-˘GmD7ǞȰ3˳˷ǥ4Aring 1AumlKđɔHamp

Ugrave 8-4 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 100 100 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash WACC ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

Ǵ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ȰlaquoʌɞĎȲ58 ͼ 389 389 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FXnĎȲ59 $US 139 139 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆChadbourne and Parke 2009 Harper et al 2007 Schwabe et al 2009

Ugrave 8-5 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

oumlźľEgraveȉĎȲ60 euroMWh ($MWh) 382 (531) 419 (582) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

źľEgraveȉ˯ǥĎȲ61 euroMWh ($MWh)

˫1 Ġ=HG

˫1 Ġ=HG ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FITǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml |bͿĎȲ62

euroMWh ($MWh) 144 (200) 151 (210) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ 10 10 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 6 6 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆHarper et al 2007 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ58 LJŚHampǕƃŵǕƃ3ʌɞ4$HH 35ͼ 6ͼ-Gɏ1ɫƧ (Harper et al 2007)ŵʌ4ĔTHORNEdž

HGamp˜Ĝśucircʌɞ4 389ͼ-G ĎȲ59 szlig3]bn4 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆGamp2007ƀA 2008ƀA 2008ƀǶ3ɐǯnKɥamp

(Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ60 2007ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3EgraveȉˬŚ1Gsup3ŚAWiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+˥amp ĎȲ61 aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3LJŚͳKouml3źľEgraveȉ3˩ʙ1ĠG ĎȲ62 PTCnjʙOacute4 13frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORN

71

823 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯTHORNoumlvgKɥ2007 ƀ 2008 ƀ3 LCOE K˩ʙamp2008 ƀ3ʟĴ LCOE2008

ƀ3ʟĴ3sup3ŚKszligAumlɥͿKđɔb2008 ƀ3đɔb3szligsup3ŚKAumlɥͿȣamp$3ʫȁ4sup23F-G Ĵecirc3ěTHORNoumlŃǘKě3đɔb3sup3ŚEʟĴ3sup3Ś9ŀccedilɱ1degTHORNđɔbʟĴ3 LCOE

3Ÿɮ93ěŃǘ3ƐKLJŚ-GD1ampʟĴ3 LCOE 4 3 MWh4 oMWhͿ-đɔb3 LCOEDFAfrac12x 8-2đɔͿ

x 8-2 EcirczrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup363

(b) BL0+dj ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4ſĹˍō0Ͷȯ3ơƣKĖG-G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ|b3

aRZn-4ſĹ 3066 Ǩ3szligːǨǴƒHGđɔb-4 2628 ǨͿʟĴ-4aRZn3aeligouml0G LCOEđɔbDFAʢ 8MWh11oMWhͿfrac120G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAʢ 72 kW100o kWͿfrac120)G

2008ƀ3ſĹƷ]bn4đɔb 1449kW2029okWͿ-G31ťʟĴ-4 1378kW19195okWͿ-GǑĐ]bnͶoumlɯˬOtilde3ǑĐ]bnaRZn^Pn3ƘUcirc]bnĠ=HGͿ4szliggt3Ʒ]bn1Ġ=HGsup3ŚHGƕ)ʟĴ-4Ʒ]bnfrac12

G1HLCOEđɔbDFAʢ 2MWh3oMWhͿfrac120G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3˺]bn4ˇŹǷ|amp2008ƀ4 100ͼͿ=ampđɔb-4

Ouml1DG˺KɥGampđɔbDFA0)G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯaRZn3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ75ͼͿ4đɔb3Oumleumlɲɞ55ͼͿDFA 200|`bPn0)G ʟĴ-4ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 2007 ƀE 2008 ƀ1ŀdivideampH4ǕĊȗ1DFƕǽ3ǷƷŞ

ĎȲ63 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

72

KŊ)ampamp-G (Schwabe et al 2009)H4=ampư0Egraveȉ3frac34Ŗ)ampreg3ʊʌdžƷAĝȓ3ơƣKƖEHGD1GʟĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY3ʌdžǕʘ3Ɵ1DGA3-3Ǖʘ1DF 2007ƀ1ʢ 6ͼ3eumlɲNjAEligHHȇƉƷeumlɲɞ3KŚG10)amp (Chadbourne and Parke 2007)ʟĴ3˺]bn0GʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 8MWh11oMWhͿ0G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAfrac120)Gʰƾ4ijŚG4Ńuuml-˘-

G3ampđɔb3ȣ-4ŃuumlǼacute-˘ampnjʙćǛ3LJŚOacuteampʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJ

Śʱͳ4 7MWh10oMWhͿđɔb3 13MWh18oMWhͿK4G1Į)ampraquoĽġ1DH5ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯɤȐ4ʰƾʚɡ]bn3˟ʏF1G˞˹Ͳ1ɠķAɷFĽ

ġHampmg4Ǩřszlig-Gamp3LJŚOacute4ƪ1˥Gƛ˞G =ampʰƾ4aRZn3ˠȕũ0G1Hfrac12G˯ƻAG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

HAʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJŚͳđɔbȣfrac120)G3į-GʟĴ3aR

Zn3ˠȕ4đɔbDFAņampͿ=ampʟĴ3ʰƾ4ǝˠaRZn14=DzucircIgrave

˯Ǵatilde-Gamp1ʵĥHGė˃ƟGʟĴ3ʰƾfrac120GʟĴ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFAʢ 6MWh8oMWhͿfrac120G

(f) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4Ƿ]bn˺]bnG4szliggt3ʰƾ1Ġ=HGƦŚHGamp

ʟĴ3ccedilǿ-4ecircmĀ0reg3]bn14ʡʭɥʿ1DGfrac12ĶPob (LVRT) ˞acuteG4ɑucircouml]bnʗGN`^wbǛ4ż4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɷDž˹

HG40

(g) uumljfrac14divideWocirceumlCcediloslash Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ]bn4đɔbDFA0)GHE3Ǖʘ1

41ͿȰlaquoʌɞ2ͿȰlaquo˹ʌƯƖE3eumlőǓƱdžĠ=HGʟĴ3DzucircȰlaquoʌɞ389Ϳ4đɔb30ͿDFA$3amp LCOE0)GE1Ƿ1DG 100˺K˟L-GampʟĴ3 LCOE ˹ʌƯƖ3eumlőǓƱdž1D)ȿͳHG40ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFAʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ0)G

824 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj3˩ʙ1DFʟĴ3ĔTHORNŃǘouml RECͿ3OacuteKͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘȣGyacuteYj4=ĔTHORNǕʘAͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘKĠ

1˩ʙș1ĔTHORNŃǘ3gtKĠauml˩ʙGǰƔ1auml7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘKĠ˩

ʙG3ŀccedilsup3Ś1DFͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘ1ťGĔTHORN3ɸťɱEgraveOacuteKǥE1amp x 8-34ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘĔTHORN3ŃǘKȣHE 23D1ʟĴ3 LCOE

KȒƭGKʆampA3-G2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3 LCOEʢ 41MWh57oMWhͿ4ĔTHORNɅouml REC3łͿ-JHGʢ 24MWh33oMWhͿ4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHGPTCUgraveČ˩ɩ3divideͿotildeĜ-˘0EʟĴ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 24ĔTHORN-ȟF3 3ccedil3 14ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHG

73

x 8-3 Ecirczs_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup364

825 aringmH7B

ʟĴ3mĀccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash1 MWhndash1 oMWhͿ-G3EʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4aRZnɯ1ƛ˞HGyacute˞acuteKɄamp31ăccedil0Xj`

yKĔTHORND7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOzȉGľĜͿEƖG10G34

PTCżǨDzucirc-)amp 2005Έ2009ƀ3ƀͶoumlˬOtildeş3ʯɱ˫EAǥE-GH41ƀŨTHORNş4 PCT]bnɑucirc10)ampǨ1˒ȿŪG (AWEA2009)ĎȲ65

83 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+

ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ƀƞ1ƼņGH4Ͷȯż1ˍō-]bnȣɱfrac12ĔTHORN

Ʌăccedil1F=ampľĜ1D)4Dzɲ0ǕʘPdlOzKeumlɥ-GE-GʟĴ1Gɠķ=

-3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn4HA-śǟHampʟĴeacute0GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯ

EHGʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bn4ˊ1đɔbDFAfrac12H4SrYaeligouml

ņǷ]bnʰƾfrac121DGͶoumlɯ1GǕƃ3ǕʘPdlOzȜ

Ɖ1˴ŚHamp-Ĵatilde3Ņ3szlig-401AͿ3ɯaRZnEumlHG10)amp

E-GĔTHORNǕʘ3PdlOz3ɸiexclucircȁ1DFͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ3yacuteYj4lte10

)G

Ugrave 8-6 EcirczIumlsectpsup366

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

58 (81)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

60 (83)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

ndash1 (ndash1) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ĎȲ64 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ65 x 8-1đɔ ĎȲ66 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

74

rOtildemiddot

AWEA (2010) ldquoUS Wind Energy Industry Breaks All Records Installs Nearly 10000 MW in 2009 Manufacturing

Investment Jobs Still Lagrdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) news release January 26 2010 at httpwwwaweaorgnewsroomreleases01-26- 10_AWEA_Q4_and_Year-End_Report_Releasehtml

AWEA (2009) ldquoAmerican Wind Energy Association Annual Wind Industry Report Year Ending 2008rdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) at httpwwwaweaorgpublicationsreportsAWEA-Annual-Wind-Report-2009pdf

Bolinger M (2010) ldquoRevealing the Hidden Value that the Federal Investment Tax Credit and Treasury Cash Grant Provide to Community Wind Projectsrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL-2909E January 2010 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreportslbnl-2909epdf

Capewind (2010) ldquoCape Wind Signs Agreement to Buy Siemens 36-MW Offshore Wind Turbinesrdquo Cape Wind (Capewind) news release March 31 2010 at httpwwwcapewindorgnews1086htm

Chadbourne and Parke (2009) ldquoTrends in Tax Equity for Renewable Energyrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke January 2009 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication810dde60-3c78-4a9a-9c5d- a5fae8014b4fPresentationPublicationAttachment51fc06c5-1407-48ac-9dff- a605de0f58e1pfn0109pdf

Chadbourne and Parke (2007) ldquoThe Tax Equity Marketrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke April 2007 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication572b04b4- 905e-48e1-8f6b-0f520c4f2615PresentationPublicationAttachment573bdc6c-ff85-4f99-b4d0- 25a845907bccpfn0407pdf

Cory K Schwabe P (2009) ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financing Input Variablesrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL TP-6A2-46671 October 2009 at httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

DOE (2010) ldquoGeneral Loan Guarantee Program Frequently Asked Questionsrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) accessed April 2010 at httpwwwlgprogramenergygovfaq2htm

DOE (2008) ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution to US Electricity Supplyrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2008 at httpwww20percentwindorg

EIA (2009) ldquoAnnual Energy Outlook 2010 Early Release with Projections to 2030rdquo US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration (EIA) website accessed February 2010 at httpwwweiadoegovoiafaeoexcelaeotab_16xls

102Federal Reserve (2010) ldquoHistorical Rates for Euro Areardquo Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System website accessed February 2010 at httpwwwfederalreservegovreleasesh10histdat00_euhtm

GE (2010) ldquo15 MW Wind Turbine Technical Specificationsrdquo GE Energy (GE) website accessed April 2010 at httpwwwgepowercomprod_servproductswind_turbinesen15mwspecshtm

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review amp Comparative Analysisrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports63434pdf

Justice S (2009) ldquoPrivate Financing of Renewable Energy ndash A Guide for Policymakers UNEP Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative Bloomberg New Energy Finance Chatham House December 2009 at httpwwwchathamhouseorgukfiles15542_1209_financeguidepdf

Schwabe P Cory K Newcomb J (2009) ldquoRenewable Energy Project Financing Impacts of the Financial Crisis and Federal Legislationrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory technical report NRELTP-6A2-44930 July 2009 at

75

httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti44930pdf

USOWC (2009) ldquoUS Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo US Offshore Wind Collaborative (USOWC) October 2009 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreports63434pdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2009) ldquo2008 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2009 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports2008-wind-technologiespdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2008) ldquoAnnual Report on US Wind Power Installation Cost and Performance Trends 2007rdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy May 2008 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs43025pdf

76

Uograve AĂsup1agraveUumlaacute

shyocircMQ+Q

BL0+para

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

aRZn3gPn Project title

aRZnĞregĴ3QOo

yMȣGamp AringΆoPk3đɔQOoyM13

aRZn3ʍ͵ Project type

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ʍ͵ A4ȳ

Ͷļǘ Number of wind turbines

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

Ͷʱǘ$EěĴ3ɡ˼

3ſĹɱQOoyMͿ

ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

Śȉaeligouml Rated power

Ͷ 1ļ3Śȉaeligouml ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

gɷƑ Rotor diameter

Ͷ3gɷƑ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

ĖͶʏ Swept area

gͶKĖGszligʏ m2-˘˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

tz Hub height

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ƚĸɏ3ſĹ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽraquotz

3ſĹͶƀɯouml4ɷDž

EcircGͿ tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ

Lond term average wind speed at hub height

tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

Ȝģɯouml Net electricity production

QOoyM3ƀſĹȜ

ģɯouml szligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

ƺʌouml Tax capability

iacute΄ɑiacute ćɜ3aRZn3ľĜ

4ʌiacuteUacuteʘKszligeumlɥ-GͿG4

ˣmiddotʇKƾ3ľĜ4ˣmiddotʇ

Ǝ˲ƀƄ3ʌdžKszligDzucirc1eumlɥ-

GͿ4_Ƹ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4

Ĵʌ΄ʌ3gt1ɥHGŵʌBĸ

Ǟʌ4ńͿ Currency

szlig]bnĔTHORNPdlOz

ʗ3 2007ǫƀ 2008ǫƀ3$HHdeg˘ɱ0ǡ $HH 2007ƀ 12DZ 3ǡ 2008ƀ12DZ 31ǡͿ3ȣ1ļ+1ˬŚ

ijŚƀ]bnćfrac14 Fixed annual costs unit

ijŚʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kW

Ńuumlƀ]bnćfrac14 Variable annual costs unit

ƀʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kWh

ccedil-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ͷ Wind turbine

ͶD7ɯ˙ʹ3Yacute˖Ʒ

]bn ggtzgĖ

oPznPKƿʆGPy

YN~jZb`blxj

i`blzX`blpdt

77

Qa[ɯȗgzoͶ

ɥŃĶĬraraquoļʅG4ʡʭDž

ʯ4Ġ=reg-ƲͿ Ͷ3 Wind turbine transportation

ͶK˛ŶľEaRZ

nɯ^Pn1$1ˬ

ʹ-GD1Gamp3]b

n

Ͷ3aRZn^Pn93Křpound

Gamp1ɥEHG΄n

jZ]bnD7Z3]bnK

Ġ Ͷ3ˬʹ Wind turbine installation

aRZnƈˬǴ3Ͷ

3ˬʹ]bn ƈˬ3Z3]bnKĠ

ũ˩ΆͶ3]bn Sub-total wind turbine cost

Ͷ 3ļsup23]bn3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ļʅ Foundations

QOoyM1ƛ˞0ļʅ

3ʱ]bn ]Zn$3regQOoyM

3ěͶKǓG31ƛ˞0ȒǓȅK

Ġ Ȓatildeʡʭ Internal grid

QOoyM3ŃƯ93

Džʯ1ƛ˞0QOoyM

atilde3ȥʡʭ

QOoyMatilde3szlig3ʳQO

oyM3ŃƯ=-D7ŃƯ

3ʳKĠͿŃƯ1ʡɏDF

ntilde1ʡʭʡŃĶĬGľĜ4$3Ń

ĶĬ=-3szlig3ʳKĠ1șiacuteƗɯ`blKuziacuteƗGamp1ˬʹ

HampiacuteƗ˙ʹͿ3]bnKĠƯDzʿ

D7Ͷ˛brvbarȐʿ1ǖB˿ġKcedilamp

FͶKǒAcirc1DFuumlD7Ocirc

țampFɥʭ˩OacuteKƵǍGamp3

ɴˡiacuteƗ`bl (SCADA)G4QOoyMɴˡ`bl3ˬʹKĠ

ʡʭʡ[jo]o3

Ɇƻ Grid connection grid code compliance

QOoyM3ʡʭʡ1

ƛ˞0ŃĶĬǠœ3oumlʡʭ

-ƛ˞HGȥʡʭ

QOoyMEʡʭ=-3ʳ

0[jo]oɆƻ3amp1ȨE

HGegrave3divideɱ˙ʹĠ=HGQO

oyMʡʭʡŃĶĬKĠ˜ǘ3

ŃƯKDzGľĜʡʭʡŃĶĬ

ʡʭ3ʳ3gtKĠ ʡʭŀƍ Grid reinforcement

˄Ƌ0ʡʭ-4QOoyM

3ʡ3ampʡʭ3reg3ccedil

3ĶʤKG1DF

ʡʭKŀƍGė˃ƟG

Ǡœ3ʡʭ3ŀƍ1ƛ˞0˙ʹ

ŀƍdivideɱiacuteƗ$3reg3macrdivideɱ˙ʹKĠ

Ϳ

ŃƯ Substations and transformer station

ʡʭʡŃĶĬˇiquestD7$H

=-3ĂKĠampQOoy

M3ʡʭatilde1Gszlig3

ŃƯ3]bn

ʡʭ93ʡĸɏ=-ǜĬD7ǜ

ĬKĠŃĶĬ4ĶKǤĶGȥ

ȗĬ-GL3Ͷ4aeligoumlKʡ

ʭĶ1ǤĶGŃĶĬKDzG ũ˩Άȥʡʭ Sub-total electrical netgrid

ȥʡʭ1G˫ 4 ɶ3ũ˩

˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ˴˯ Certification

ʡʭʡG1amp)QO

oyMK˴˯Gamp3]

bn

˴˯Hampˬ˩IJ3]bnD7QOo

yM3ś3ƈˬK3ˬ˩IJȣ

G]bnKĠ ɢĿ˺Ȇ Environmental survey

QOoyM3ɯȠ-

ƛ˞10GɢĿ˺Ȇ3ʱͳH

4ěĴ3ɢĿƐ˰EgraveǮ3acirciquest

ɱ0˞acute1˟G-G

ȩȃ3ė˃ƟɊɇograveʗͿ ͷ|3LJŚ Ǫˤ93ˡˢɱƐ ɣɣəD7ɣƩʡ93ƈˬD7 3Ɛ ɚŚ3ͻ˓˔3ɴˡ `oQyjV3Oslash

Pysup2ń3ɯ]bn

3ũ˩ Non-infrastructure development subtotal

˫3Pysup2ń3aR

Znɯ3˫ 2ɶ3ʱ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

78

ʰƾˬOtilde OampM facilities

ʰƾȐyacute3˖1ƛ˞0

D7ǟˬKǝamp1ƈˬG

]bn

Ͷ3ƈˬ14aRZn3ˀ

ɥƀǘ3ʰƾgzo3

ɏȏ]bnD7ņĺĦ3ordfnj]bn $3reg Miscellaneous

˫3aRZnɯ]bn

1Ġ=H0$3regegrave3

]bn

3ĵĸƯDzʿ93˚Ugrave

ntilde3eumlőǓƱ Interest payment before operation

aRZnŐntilde1ǓƱ

ƛ˞10Geumlő3ʱͳ ż4ƈˬȠ3OumlD7Ͷ3Ͱ

ǓƱ3amp33Ńǘ4 1Έ2ƀatilde3yacuteŃǘ-G3Xj`y

mŐHGɥeacuteƀƄ1

4ntilde-ǓƱ]bnG reg3aRZnɯ]b

n3ũ˩ Sub-total other project development costs

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫frac14ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0

ľĜʱͳ-˘

aRZnƷ]bn3

ʱͳ Total project investment costs

˫ɯɶũ˩3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

q-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǑĐbZjEgraveͳK

Ϳ Decommisioning excl scrap value

ļʅKĠQOoyMK

ĵĸEǑĐG31˞G]

bn

QOoyMD7egrave3Py

ZʗͿ3˥iquestǑĐə

$3regegrave3ƛ˞0Ǖƃ˯ǥǮ3Acircƭ]b

n ĵĸ3ˇɓɛƩ93ĮƘ Returning the land to the natural state

ĵĸ3ɠɛĮƘ3amp3]bn aRZnřpoundamp1ɯɣ

bZjEgraveͳ Scrap value

ǑĐǨ3bZjǺǛ3łČ

EgraveOacute ʳʗaumleumlɥG4bZj

łČ-Gė˃Ɵ3GQOoyM

3ǺǛ ȜģǑĐ]bn Net decommissioning costs

˫ɶ3ʱͳ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

BL0+igraveeacute Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǨszligːǨmO

nKͿ Operational time full load hours excluding derate

szligːǨ4QOoyM

3ſĹƀɯoumlK$3

Śȉaeligouml-ampOacute-G

H4szligːǨ3Ĝ˩-F˩ɩɱ

D7˩ɩń3ʰƾʚɡ3amp3OcircțǨK

ĠszligːǨŅŚamp^P

n1GQOoyM3ɯouml

AŀdivideG szligːǨ3mOn Derate of full load hours

QOoyMʎOslash

0Ǩ ɼȧʗ1DGOcircț3amp3ɯouml

3ǏŊKĠ ȜģǨȜģszligːǨ

Net operational timefull load hours

ǨszligːǨEmO

nKƊampǨ ȜģǨ3Ĝ˩KĠG0J(m

OnKĠGͿ

ˀɥƀǘ Economic life

ƦŚHGaRZn3ˀɥ

ƀǘ3ǴaRZn]

bn3ʱͳKĮĔ0H50

E0Ϳ

AringaRZnKʮʯɥG-

ƦŚHampˀɥƀǘsup21ăccedilʎOslash-

GɛƩ1)ampAaRZn

3ȟœˀɥƀǘ4egraveĠ0 ]bn˩ʙ3amp3˩ɩť

Ǵ Time horizon for cost

LCOE˩ʙ3ť0GǴ _OacuteKTHORNouml0ľĜ4myTn

ˬŚ1DFˀɥƀǘ1ˬŚG

79

calculations

aringm Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ǵ Loan duration

ȽǴ3Ĝ˩ ͰD7eumlőǓƱKĠ

― źľeuml Loan - market interest rate

euml3Oacute43ư1D)

ŃJG OgraveTHORN3otildeĜ-˘]bn

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml3ƖEHG Oumleumlɲɞ Return on debt

Ǵ1ȢƀƖEHG

euml ȢƀƖEHGeuml

ƛ˞HGǷeumlɲɞź

ľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivideʙ

KͿ Required return on equity excl market volatility risk adder

QOoyM3ǷƷŞ

ȨGeumlɲɞ Ƿ1Geumlɲ3otildeĜ

źľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivide

ʙ Market volatility risk adder

ʕyenɱźľ1đdivideǷeumlɲɞ

KGdividebZKƵǍG

KɶɱampA3

źľ1GcurrenƦń3ŃuumlbZKʾƬ

Gamp1divideʙGotildeĜ

ƛ˞HGƷǷ3Ȝ

ģeumlɲɞ Net required return on investment equity

ɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZ

nƷŞ93ǷeumlɲɞǷƷ

ŞȨGźľŃuumlƟ3b

ZKĠͿ

Ƿeumlɲɞźľ3ŃuumlƟKʾƬG

ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKƵǍGamp mZ-ɥė ˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ƿ3otildeĜĸUcircǷ3ƯDz

ȖKͿ Equity share excl local equity ownership

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp1ƻaeligGǷ3otilde

Ĝ

ͶǓƾ˙ʹPyʚɡ˺

ʗ3]bnKamp1ƷGǷ3

ʱͳ

Ƿ3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Total equity share

ĸUcirc3Ƿ3ƯDzȖ0E71ʱ

Ʒ]bn ˺]bnK

amp1ƻaeligGǷ3otildeĜ3

Ĝ˩

ĸUcircD7ĸUcircsup2ń3ƷŞNjAEligamp

Ƿ3ʱͳ

Ouml3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Debt share

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp3Ouml3otildeĜ THORNoumlGǷ3otildeĜ1ļ+˩ʙOacute

aRZn3ʱ]bn 100EǷ3otildeĜKƊampOacuteͿ

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate- municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠǘOacute

4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ȝģʌɞ Net tax rate

ǕƃĸǞŵǕƃ3Ȱlaquoʌ

ɞ3Ĝ˩ -˘ʆǕƃźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

80

shy MQ+Q

oacute-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

˛ȐʿNjAEligGʰƾʚ

ɡ]bn Manufacturer-provided maintenance

eacuteƀƄG4$3Ɣ1divide]

bn0-˛ȐʿNjAEligG

ʰƾʚɡ]bn

3]bn4żQOoyM3ˬʹ

]bn1Ġ=HGampeacuteǴ4e1

0G4-G

atildebgjy1DG˩ɩɱ

ʰƾʚɡ]bn Scheduled maintenance by internal staff

aRZnƯDzʿ3bgjy

1DGŚǴɱ0QOoyM

3ʰƾʚɡ]bn

bgjy1DGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

ń^wbŋʢ External service contracts

reg3˻Ȑʿ1DGŚǴɱ0Q

OoyM3ʰƾʚɡ]b

n

˻brvbarȐʿDGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

]bn Operation costs

QOoyM3ɥ1ƛ˞

0ƀ]bn SCADA KĠQOoyM3ƴ˗ɱɥ3amp3]bn-ʚɡ]bn-40

H14ecirc˷ǥͿǘOacuteȥcurren

ɂ3]bnKĠ ɏȏ Inspections

Ͷɏȏ3amp˻ȐʿK

ˇʇ-A˫3^wb˻

Ȑʿ-A0ľĜͿ

gzo3Ľġ2~4ƀȢͿĦ3ƴ˗ɏȏͶ 1 ļampF 2 ƀȢ1 1 ǡͿKĠɏȏ3ǨȂ4kW |b

-ˬŚ ˩ɩń3Icircɡ Unscheduled repairs

˩ɩń3Icircɡʰƾʚɡ ˙ʹ3ǖŇȥɛȯ$3reg3ńį1DG

ʰƾijŚͿũ˩ OampM costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ OampM costs variable subtotal

˫3Ńuumlʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝͳ-˘ ʚɡ Administration

QOoyM3ʚɡ

D7ɴɽ3]bn ʬƈəˇuumlD7ɗǛͿʗKĠ

Igrave Insurance

QOoyM$33

bZD7$3Ɛ1OtildeG

amp1ǓƱƀIgraveǛ

uumlɤIgraveǏŝUgraveuacuteɍ˚UgraveD7ɢĿ

)ampQOoyM1ɷDžEcirc

Gegrave3Igrave

ʡʭǛ Grid charges

ʡʭ93ʡ0E71ɥKǓ

ǎG31ƛ˞HGƀǛ

_4HKş|b3]bn

G4SrY]bnTHORNouml

G-G ʡʭ3]bnijŚͿ Grid costs fixed

˫3ʡʭǛ

ʡʭ3]bnŃuumlŃuumlͿ Grid costs variable

˫3ʬ˺ʛ]bn

^Pn3 Site lease

QOoyMKˬʹampĵ

ĸ3ƯDzʿ1ǓƱʱͳ Ͷ 1 ļ1macrǓƱľĜAʱͳ-ǓƱľĜAʱ]bn-THORNouml

G ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

aRZnşƀ

kWͿ1ļ+aRZnǓƱƀʌͳ

ͼ|b3ʌ4˫3Z`n-ƀ

șŃuuml30ŃǘTHORNoumlG

1ȲƧ-4ş|b3ʌKʆ

$3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG ȸouml Electricity consumption

ouml3ˇŹȸ ʡʭ3ĝǴD7ɯƯ3uumlʗ3amp

_4HEKş|bG4

SrY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ɢĿɂŚ˰Egraveʗ Environmental measurements evaluations etc

QOoyM3˴ė0E7

1KʰƾG31ƛ˞0ƀ

ɢĿɂŚ˰Egrave

_4HEKş|bG4Sr

Y]bnTHORNoumlG-

G

81

reg3ƀ]bnijŚͿũ

˩ Other annual costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚɢĿɂŚǛ

ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ Other annual costs variable subtotal

˫3oumlȸ]bn

ƀ]bnijŚͿ Annual costs fixed

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ƀ]bnŃuumlͿ Annual costs variable

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘

Ts_-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ƀźľđdivide]bn Annal market participation fee

ʕyenɱoumlźľ1đdivideGamp

3ƀ]bn źľɥʿʡʭɥʿ1ǓƱ

ʬ˺Ǚ]bn Balancing costs

ͶoumlɯKěǨ1oumlʡ

ʭ1DžʯGamp3]bnʱͳ

aeligoumlcurrenɂ1Gś3ŀccedil]

bn

kW]bn4ȜƉ0ʬ˺ǙźľKG43]bnouml3źľ

Egraveȉ1Ġ=HGampccedilG3İ

0ľĜAG_4HE3]bn

Kş|b3]bnG4S

rY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ŋʢ]bnĕƊǛʗͿ Contract costs (transaction fees etc)

ŋʢ3ʰƾ1ƛ˞0ƀǓƱͳ kWh-˘ĕƊǛ

reg3]bn3ʱͳ Subtotal other costs

źľđdivide]bnʬ˺Ǚ]b

nŋʢ]bn3Ĝ˩

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKşǦ1GĽ

Ō kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƟʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źľoumlEgraveȉ Market price electricity

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

ƀſĹźľoumlEgraveȉ kWh

źľ˯ǮEgraveȉ Market price certificates

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ3

ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kWhǕʘ1DFG4źľ|b-ˬŚHGľĜGǘOacute4ecirc

THORNoumlG FITĔTHORN Feed-in tariff revenue

FIT1DGĔTHORN ż4aR

Zn]bn3ǓƱ3amp3ŀ

ccedilǓƱŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞK

ʄIgraveG31Auml ouml3źľEgrave

ȉKĠľĜAG

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐKŐampƀƄ1

ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlHG

reg3ĔTHORN3ʱͳ Subtotal other revenues

˫3reg3ĔTHORN3Ĝ˩

Ccedil ― shyocircocirc

shyocirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ʌƊntildedž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as a before-tax credit

ʌƊntilde

3ʌdž1ťGntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊntilde

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGʌ|b3ntildeƱ˚

ugrave3otildeĜHĝ otildeĜaRZ

n3ʱͳoͿG4ˬOtildeşampF

3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ

82

|b3PdlOz4aRZn1

DGʌƊntilde1ɥHGƕ)aR

Zn1ťEgraveOacuteaRZn3eacute

ƀ3˹ʌͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3

ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜaRZnG

G4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3

ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ

4_Ƹ-Gʌdž4Ĵ

ʌ13gtɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ

|-40Ϳ ʌƊƔdž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave AringΆUgraveČͿ Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as an after-tax deduction (eg depreciation)

ʌƊƔ

3ʌdž1ļ+ntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊƔ

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGYacute˖ʌdžH

ĝ otildeĜaRZn3ʱͳoͿ

G4ˬOtildeşampF3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ|b3Pdl

Oz4aRZn1DGʌƊƔ1ɥ

HG3ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜa

RZnGG4aRZn

ƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-G

ˣmiddotʇKƾ4_Ƹ-G

ʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥHGƕ

)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront cash investment subsidy

aRZnszligiquest1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ aRZnƷ]bnʱͳ1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml-3Ƚė˃ ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKǁGamp mZ-ɥė˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

shyl Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

kW-ʆHGƀʌͳ ȢƀǓƱD7ƀșŃuumlGş

|b3ʌͳ FITĔTHORNAringΆɯouml|b3PdlOzͿ Feed-in tariff revenue (eg production based incentives)

FIT G4ɯouml|b3PdlOz1DGĔTHORN

ż4aRZn3]bnK

31˞ȨHGŀccedilǓƱ1

ŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞKdivideampOacute

ouml3źľEgraveȉKdivideGľĜA

G

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐɱɥKŐampƀƄ

1ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǨCcedilœǛiacuteƄKɥ

GĴoPkʗͿ4ƀ3ǘOacuteAring

$HƀK Ś0

AͿKTHORNoumlG FITǕʘǴ Feed-in tariff policy period

FIT G4ɯ˚ugraveǓƱJHGʱǨ

aRZn1ƦŚHGʪȽɱƕŎǴ

K0ʜı3Ǵɮ0H5 FIT3ǓƱ|Aɮ0)Gė˃Ɵ

83

GFIT ǕʘǴ3Ĝ˩OacuteK1THORNoumlG

ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž Production-based before-tax credits

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b30J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊntilde

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊntilde|

b-aRZn1ɥH

G

aRZn3ʌǓƱntilde1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGɯouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿƕ)aRZn1ťEgraveOacuteņaRZneacuteƀ3˹ʌ

ͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteK

ĖGćɜaRZnGG

4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDz

ucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gt

ɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40

Ϳ ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž3ǕʘǴ Production-based before-tax credit policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHGǴ

3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɯ|b3ʌƊƔdž Production-based after- tax deductions

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b0J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊƔ

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊƔ|

b-aRZn1ɥHG

aRZn3ʌǓƱƔ1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKĖGćɜaRZnGG4

aRZnƯDzʿĝƀƄ3ʌdžKDzucirc

1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥ

HGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ɣɤļɵ3džʌƊƔͿ

ǕʘǴ Production-based after- tax deductions policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHG

Ǵ3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power bonus

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKEumlGamp

3ĽŌ kWh

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƄʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWh

źľEgraveȉ˯Ǯ Market price certificates

źľG4Ǖƃ3Ǖʘ1D)

ˬŚHampQOoyM

3aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ

3ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kW_4ɮ0Gźľ-0J(ěʍ3źľEgraveȉ-Ϳłamp3˯

Ǯ3ȼĜdivideſĹźľEgraveȉKTHORNoumlG

divideUgraveČ Accelerated Depreciation

OtildeĦ3ͳK˺middot˩D

7ʌťʘUgraveČG˩ɩ ěƀƄ3UgraveČͳ4ɤ3ˀɥƀǘ3eacuteǴD

FBBƀ|b-eacuteǴƷʱͳ

3ͼˬŚG UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

3m-4_aRZn3

EgraveOacuteKUgraveČGƀƄ$3UgraveČɞKŚʻ

GșƀƄsup2ȢƀȟͳKUgraveČGǞȰK

ɥGĴ-4_UgraveČ˩ɩEgrave

ͳKdegɡȖ˖Auml1D)˟ʏG

dj

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

yacuteYj Financial gap

aRZn3˺1ƛ˞

HGyacuteYj ʱ]bn˺]bnͿEƛ˞

HGǷeumlɲɞ93Ʒ1ƛ˞0ĔTHORN

PdlOzKƊampOacute ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave Levelized electricity generation cost

QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘ

1QOoyM-ɣɤH

amp kWh3ɠķ3ǡſĹ]bn

szlig3]bnKĠƷaumlƷ

ʰƾͿĔTHORNPdlOz˺]

bnĹʗĀĎEgrave4otildeƊɞͶ3ˀɥƀ

ǘKɥ˩ʙ

• 表紙13
• 要旨13
• 目次13
• 第1章 7ヶ国の風力発電の財務コスト13
• 第2章 デンマーク13
• 第3章 ドイツ13
• 第4章 オランダ13
• 第5章 スペイン13
• 第6章 スウェーデン13
• 第7章 スイス13
• 第8章 米国13
• 付録A 変数および用語解説13

3

x 1-1 uumljfrac14divide-1 ǛΆThe Economics of Wind Energy EWEA Report 2009

133 icirc

Ͷoumlɯ1Gɶ3Ņ=žĀHEHE4ĔTHORNB]bn3˰Egrave1Ġ0

HE4ɯƴ˗3oacuteșɱƐ1GńƟG4ʇmiddotɱɥ-Gˊ1aumlɣė˃SrY3ƴ˗4

ƕǽĺɅ3ƴ˗1ȣńƟ3Ɛż1Ū0IEA3 ldquoRenewable Energy Costs and Benefits for Society (RECaBS)rdquo aRZn-4ǥƟ3ǞȰKɥƕǽĺɅaumlɣė˃SrYɅKȣɯ3]bnEacuteɲKLJŚG (RECaBs 2007)ReCABS3ǞȰ˼1DH53ccedilǿ14ș3 53ńƟĠ=HG

ȥNtildeŃuumlɁŜucircȁWbɚ1 CO2D7 CH4Ϳ reg3ņȥȩȃɅSOxNOxD7ʠőͿ ʡʭʡoumlPy93divide]bn oumlʬ˺ǙͶ3şZajnˮȲ 41DGȿͳʗͿ

ɗǛAEligʬ3ŘszligIgraveɗǛTHORN3ĴatildeɅ-3degɥ HE3ńƟ1divideͶoumlɯ4ɗǛ3ȸB$H1sup1ɗǛEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ŷęH0Ͷoumlɯƴ˗

93ƷbZ4ĀʂɗǛ1DGɯƴ˗3bZyMPɮ0GHEszlig3ɚƙ1DFͶoumlɯ

ƴ˗reg3ɯƴ˗3EgraveOacuteNjȊ1G˞0ɚƙɣ GǷʃʐ4$3ȣ˰EgraveK˱gtampA3-

40

134 LCOEGKaacute

UhSrYʃʐdg (ECN) AcircƭampXj`ym4ǷaRZn1G

ˮȲ 4 şZajn (capacity credit) ʡʭŘŚƄ1ƤƐK0ʜı-Ͷoumlɯ1D)ƕǽĺɅHʹnj

EHGKʆȣɞAring5 şZajn 303ľĜǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ 1 GW1ťƕǽĺɅK 03GWȿEG-GşZajn1G˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

4

LCOEyacuteYj (FG) 3˟ʏF3ļɵ0)G3 ECNm4otildeƊXj`ym-Ǝeacute4Uh1Gaumlɣė˃SrY3˚ugrave3ɯAEligʬĽŌK˩ʙGamp1AcircƭHampA3

-Gɠķ ECN43mKɥUhǕƃ1ěʍaumlɣė˃SrYƸ˂3ɣɤ]bnK3ʋƄ1ugrave˧GIEAWind Task26KɯŮ-đdivide˽Ĵ3]bnȒK˟ʏAGamp3mKIcircȜƼņͶoumlɯ3]bnKȄ˳ʧ1˩ʙ-Gkamp3mKȒƭ

G34ɯƯ^PcǨszligːǨˀɥƀǘƷ]bnʰƾaRZn3˺

3ɚƙ)ampmĀ3amp3vg0E71Ɓʜ0vg-GěĴD7==0ˠ

iacuteiquestiacute13mKɥ-$3ȗ˃ŅɥƟǔīHGAring5Xj`y

mKǔ˨ͶoumlɯaRZn3ěˠiacuteiquestiacute1ƕ==0ƴ˗ɱyacuteɱvg1ɥ-

GD1amp3D0Ȅ0m4Ʒ]bnʱͳ3˩ʙ3gt0Eěʍ3ɥ3ɚƙByacuteưȠ

0E71ĴQOoyM3PdlOzK˷ǥG-˞-G

135 GK|yenfrac12-N3B

Xj`ybjo`nKɥͶoumlɯ3]bnK˳ʧ1˩ʙG$3szligvgKUograve A1ʆ3bjo`nm4 6 3Z`n-ȒƭHǰeacute3 3 3Z`n4ɚŚ3Ĵ1GͶoumlɯ]bn3˩ʙ1ƛ˞0˳ʧƥĽKNjAEligGamp3A3-G ǰeacute3Z`n4ƀșŃuuml3013ŃǘKŚGA3-GH14aRZn3ɚƙƷ]b

nʱͳǑĐ]bnʱͳĎȲ2szligːǨ1ɔEampǨ]bn˩ʙ3˩ɩťǴĠ=HGƷ]b

nǑĐ]bn4ěʍ3Ȓƭ˞ʥ3ʱͳ˘-GH4ś3]bn3Ÿɮ3ŅĴȣ3

amp3ƥĽKNjAEligHG=amp3Z`n1DFPyŃuuml]bnŀK˷ǥGampͿOumleuml

ɲɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞ0E71OumlǷȣɞaRZn1macrGyacutebZKēǧGampͿ)

ampěʍ3yacuteŃǘKŚG-GE13Xj`ym4ĴBŵ3ȰlaquoʌKʾƬampA

3-G ƀșŃuuml13Z`n14ʰƾĸdegʡʭ]bn)ampƀijŚŃuuml-ȒƭHG

ěʍɶĠ=HFHEK˳ccedil͵ěĴ-ȣ-GD1G=amp-ȥǛBʧ

ȪŚ˞įŋʢ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnʗͿKŚʻG ʖ 33Z`nǕʘ13-4ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT)ʌͳdž$3reg3PdlOzKȏ˪G

3m3U`ȿʌ3EacuteɲKaRZn3Xj`y1ŚampFɑiacuteĎȲ31

ampFG-G3THORNoumlvgK$3ș3Z`n1AumlͶoumlɯaRZn3 LCOE Bɯ3yacuteYj (FG) KȪŚGTHORNouml―aeligouml13Z`n4$3ʫȁ3 LCOE FGK˘ampA3-˩ʙ-ɥampŃǘK=Gś3Xj`y3˩ʙ4aRZn3Xj`y

13D7LCOEXj`y13Z`n-˖

136 LCOE FGYacuteEgrave

LCOE FG4ȤƷŞ3ˡɏEXj`yK˩ʙampʫȁ-GampĞɶ3ʌƊƔǷeumlɲɞKLCOE FG3otildeƊɞɥGraquo LCOE FG14ě3˩ʙ1ɮ0GXj`y3ȵHKĠGH1sup21ȑ˷G ż3ľĜLCOE3Ľġ14ƷǓaeligƀ]bnȿEgraveUgraveČD7ƸampotildeƊɞAumlJHGƕ)

3Ȃʩgtatilde1G LCOE 3˩ʙOacute4ƷǓaelig3ƾccedilotildeĜszligǴ3otildeƊʌƊƔXj`yʱͳKeȜģɠķEgraveOacute (NPV) G31ƛ˞0ɣɤCcedilœeumlɲŚʻHGLCOE3˩ʙ-4ɯG4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɚecirc1ɥHGPdlOzE3ĔTHORN3Xj`yKʾƬ0

ECN3 LCOE˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

ĎȲ2 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4ǑĐ]bnKaRZnƈʝǴ1ʄIgraveKĴʻyacutemacrGľĜ3gt3]b

nKĠamp ĎȲ3 ǷĽġǮ3ccedilǿ-4szlig3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKɑiacute13sup3Śamp=Feumlɥė˃0szlig3ȿʌ3ơƣKřszlig1ĖEH

GD0Xj`yăccedil1œķG-G

5

H41ɠķ FG3˩ʙ-4Ͷoumlɯ1ijDz3ɯɱPdlOz3Xj`yfynYacute˖Ʒʌļɵ3ƷugraveƭʗͿKʾƬG3Śʻ1ļ+brvbarś FG1D)ěĴ3 LCOEɯ0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ɱPdlOz1DFśɠHampeumlɲ3K˘G

ECNm3 FG˩ʙ-4sup23ƉKɥG

˫3D1ʌƊƔ3ƀXj`y14ouml3łĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3˚ugraveƱƮD7P

dlOzƀʰƾȽeumlƢǓƱ0E71yacuteľ3ȿEgraveUgraveČeumlődž3ʌƊƔͳ

E3Xj`yĠ=HG x 1-24LCOEƖEHampĔTHORNoumlźľĔTHORNFITAEligʬĽŌʗͿPdlOzD7yacuteYj

3EcircKʆampA3-G3IJ1ʆD1FGOacuteȜ3ľĜ4aRZnɯʿ3 LCOEK31ƛ˞0ĔTHORNƖEH0)ampƧģ-F3ľĜ4 LCOE KG3ăccedil0ĔTHORNƖEHampKʆĨG

x 1minus2 aringmH7Bmacrs_N3N9AampgtKQ-1Agravedeg

ʌƊƔ3Xj`yt

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ ndash

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

FG =

1 ndash ʌɞ times ƀʰƾ t ndash ʌɞ times euml t + ʌyacute3ȿEgraveUgraveČ t

ƀɯouml t times 1 ndash ʌɞ t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt aeligȣɞ times Ʒʱͳ +

t=1Tsum

1 + ˇŹǷeumlɲɞt

LCOE =

6

14 rkzoumlRuumljfrac14divide-1

șʛ-4 Ĵ3aRZn3ǎugraveKGĴatildeƷŞ1)3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnKđdivideamp 7Ĵ3Ĵecirc1ʆH14 ECN3mǞȰ˼KɥG˞0Ͷoumlɯ3]bn3ŃǘKŅĴ-ȣG1DFěĴ3ccedilFͶoumlɯaRZn3|bP]bnǥʄ10Geumlɥ

ė˃0mgEHGampȳͶoumlɯ3]bn4˳ʆ0ĽġHamp]bnmg3

Ūǘ3^KĠG

15 vQ5otildeordm

3ccedilǿ-4Ͷoumlɯ3]bnƟ˃0E71yacutemgszligiquest3ȜʄDzucircƟKaeligǽGF˯ǥD

ampmgfb4ŅʍŅȓ-FĽġHampmg34ĴD7mgfb1DFɮ0)G

Aring5ĽġHamp]bn3mg42008 ƀ3ͳ-˘ampɠķEgraveȉK˘G3ŚEgraveȉǥʄ-0brvbarAringAG=ampsup21ǀGvgA2008 ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlaRZnK˘amp3A3-Gś14 2008ƀntilde1ɯȲHǓƱJHampbrvbarAringKĠGė˃ƟGmgEHGampampɉķɱ0ɿɹKIcircȜG-0)ampE1 IEA Task264ěĴ3deg˘ɱ013aRZnK˘KƧIJampA3-GͶoumlɯ3ś3]bn4^PnaRZn1D)ɮ0G

ƕ)sup23mg4ěĴ3szligˊɱɛȯ˷ǥ3amp3gt1ʆampA3-3ɏ1ɫƧ-G

16 tzGKLCOErmicroQ1

Ͷoumlɯ3Ĵecirc3]bnļǷampaRZn-4đɔb13Ĥ8ͿȣHG

3đɔb4ěĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3deg˘ɱ0Ȓƭ˞ʥK˘A3-ƴ˗ɱvgaRZn3ɚƙƟ

˃Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bnʰƾʗͿyacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞ

ǴĴ3ʌɞʗͿ3ǞĠ=HGđɔb-4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘKńG=ampͶoumlɯ

KǓǎGĕFʩgt4Ĵ1D)ɮ0GampͶoumlɯǕʘBPdlOzAĠ0ƕ)đɔ

b-4 LCOE3˩ʙʫȁ3gtK˘ʆG Ĵecirc3ƴ˗ɱvgKUgrave 1-21ʆĎȲ4đɔb-43ěvgKszlig3Ĵ1Ga

RZn3ˬOtildeş3divideſĹ˩ʙGđɔb3ƴ˗ɱvg3OacuteA3˘1ʆF

2008 ƀ3ˬOtildeşȣɱņ)ampbQRmʟĴ$HH 98MW85MWͿ-ƄĜņ0)G7 Ĵ- 2008 ƀ1śǟHampdeg˘ɱ0aRZnKŅŪ0FAēǧ-GD1đɔb3divide14Ĵatilde3ʱSrYş-40aRZn3ˬOtildeşKɥGđɔb3aRZ

nȒʝ14==0Ƹ˂G$3ƸĴecirc3 LCOE G4 FG ˩ʙ1ƐG40ɏKƿǐG34˞-GđɔbNjAEligG342008 ƀ3Ĵecirc3ʫȁKȣGamp3ˊɱ0ɏ10 Ugrave 1-3 4Ĵecirc3yacutevgKʆampA3-Gě3yacutevg1szlig3Ĵ3ʼnOacuteKđɔ

b3OacuteɥGYacute1ampD1đɔb3˩ʙOacuteĴecirc3 LCOE B FG 3ʫȁ1ƐG40

ECN m-4otildeƊɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞKɥGǷdivideſĹ]bn (WACC) A3˘1ʆGWACC 4˜ǘ3yacutevgOumlǷȣɞˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlőɞĴ3ʌɞͿKyacute]bnszligiquestK˷ǥGćɂŚļɆ1ĠG Ugrave 1-41ĴecircD7đɔb3 LCOE FG3ʫȁKʆ3ʫȁ142008ƀ3 LCOEyacuteYj

3˩ʙʫȁKĠG3ʫȁ4Ĵecirc3Ͷoumlɯ3]bnszligiquestK˘ampʆampA3-G3Ͷ

oumlɯaRZn-Aś3 LCOE4ľƯaRZn1D)ɮ0)G

ĎȲ4 Ugrave 1-33mĀ3sup3Ś3amp3THORNoumlmg43gt-ʆG1ɫƧraquo LCOE FG3ʫȁ4

ʟo3Ǟ-ʆG

7

Ugrave 1-2 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divideOslashfrac12JFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h b

P bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b Ͷ^Pc(MW) ĎȲ5 23 20 30 20 24 20 17 21

Ͷļǘ 7 5 5 15 41 6 50 34 szligːǨ 2695 2260 2200 2150 2600 1750 3066 2628 ƷĎȲ6(eurokW) 1250 1373 1325 1250 1591 1790 1377 1449 ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 00 15 00 00 16 00 00 06 reg3]bn

euroMWhͿ 3 0 10 3 0 0 0 1

ʰƾijŚͿ(euroMWh) 000 4633 3139 000 001 000 860 629

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 12 0 13 20 11 31 5 11

njʰƾʱͳ

(euroMWh) 12 21 28 20 11 31 7 13

đɔb divide 61 38 57 114 366 46 318 NA

Ugrave 1-3 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14dividearingmJFQ5yuml2008Ā

m

Z oPk U

h bP

bQR

m bPb ʟĴ đɔ

b OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 55 50 70 50 50 60 50 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 110 95 150 100 120 70 75 100 Oumlyacute3otildeĜͿ 80 70 80 80 87 70 0 80 Ƿ3otildeĜͿ 20 30 20 20 13 30 100 20 ǴƀͿ 13 13 15 15 20 20 15 15 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 250 298 255 300 280 210 389 280

WACCͿ 52 56 60 59 47 49 75 49

Ugrave 1-4 tzrmicroQ1oumlRuumljfrac14divide LCOE FGyuml2008Ā

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

bPb 120 (167) oPk 5 (7) Uh 94 (131) ʟĴ ndash1 (ndash1) oPk 85 (118) bPb ndash1 (ndash1) bP 83 (115) Uh ndash3 (ndash4)

bQRm 67 (93) bP ndash3 (ndash4) ʟĴ 65 (91) mZ ndash6 (ndash8)

mZ 61 (85) bQRm ndash8 (ndash11) đɔb 68 (95) đɔb NA

Ugrave 1-41ʆampD1Ĵecirc3 LCOE4bPb3 120MWh167oMWhͿĎȲ7EmZ3 61MWh85oMWhͿ=-Gđɔb3 LCOE4 68MWh95oMWhͿLJŚGěĴ3 LCOE ɮ0)G34Ĵecirc3ɯoumlʰƾǓaeligƷ]bn˺ǞȰ31DGA3-Gș1ěĴ3 LCOE1HE3vgĒltƐKDŽG

ĎȲ5 DF˳Ͷoumlɯ]bnccedilǿ14gɷƑtzſĹͶ)amp˞0vgKĠSrYAElig

ʬ1Gǥʄ0sup3ŚKĠG10G1ʆampLJŚOacute4ǷǮ1ʆampsup2ń3ƴ˗BĴşǦ1ȣ-GD

1ș3ćʣ0shyȓ3gtKʆA3G ĎȲ6 Yacute1ampD1Ʒ]bnD7aRZnƈˬ4 2008ƀ3A3sup3ŚGś14Ʒ]bnͶ3

ɯȲʗͿ14 2008ƀsup2ntilde3ǘŒĠ=HGė˃ƟG ĎȲ7 ɐǯn 1o139-njʙ

8

17 LCOEzoacuteplusmnecirc

ŅĴccedilǿ-4ěĴ1G 43˞0]bnvg3 LCOE93ƐKDŽ)ampĴecirc1 LCOEKLJŚ63]bnvgKĴecirc3Oacute$3reg3vgKđɔb3Oacuteamp3ccedilǿ14

|bPɂŚļɆđɔb3vgOacuteͿȣampĴecirc3THORNoumlvg3ƐKegraveFamp

3ŅĴccedilǿ-ȏ˯amp˞0vg14ɯoumlƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnKĠ

ampș13ʫȁKszlig3Ĵ3-ȣamp AringěĴ3szligːǨ3 LCOE 93ƐKx 1-3 1ʆ3IJ4 3 3ǥʄ0˱bKȣ

ampA3-G=Ɍˎ3Ȍ[y4Yacute1Ugrave 1-4 -ʆampěĴ3 LCOE K˘A3-szligTHORNoumlvgKĴecirc1ʆGș1ʳ4đɔbKʆA3-|bP3 LCOEK 68MWhszligvgKđɔb3OacuteG=ampʲˎ3jn4ȼĜbKʆA3-szligːǨKĴecirc3Oacute

$3reg3vgKđɔb3OacuteG x 1-31-6 4$HHɯouml˫đɔͿƷ]bnʰƾ˺]bnK˘G

Ĵecirc3 LCOEɌˎ3Ȍ[yͿđɔb3 LCOEʳͿ43IJ-AŚ˞0]bnvg4ěIJ-ɮ0)FHKV-ccedilFǦʆG

x 1-3 rmicroQ1tzfrac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀkwIumlsect

x 1-4 rmicroQ1tzccedil-1kwIumlsect

9

x 1-5 rmicroQ1tzigraveeacuteETHaeligkwIumlsect

x 1-6 rmicroQ1tzccedilntildeacirciacute-1kwIumlsect

ěĴ3˞0Ͷoumlɯ]bn3vg34sup23D1˷ǥ-GampH1E0Ϳ frac14dividedividejethyuml`aumltimesiexcloacuteĀăszligːǨ3Ĵ1DG14==0aacuteD7Iumlecirc3˞įƐ

GAring5oPk-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ1D)aRZnɯ4ͶɅ3 Ć1ƹB

EHGmZ-4Ĵatilde3ǵɯ3^PnKɯGntilde1Ͷ3ʹˬ˩1D)Ǡœ3Ͷ

oumlɯ^Pn3ˬOtildeǭǝEumlHGľĜAF$3ʫȁĴatilde3eacuteǴ3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn3

2008ƀ1ˬOtildeǭǝ3ť0)GbPb-4ű3NZdbEHGamp2008ƀ1śǟHampɯaRZn3ǘ4ŚHampA310)GʟĴ14Uumlccedil1ˍō0ͶɅ

KDzGaRZn^PnǘŅGʳ93NZdbeumlɥė˃ɞEHGamp

aRZnɥ^PnȪŚ14FFľĜ1D)4ɯ3aeligoumlƶiacuteKGKƖ00)

GǞbQRm-4ĵĸ3iacuteʢ4Ƿʃʐ3reg3Ĵ4ĪͲ10)0Uh-4

FIT3ĽŌ3szligːǨ3ǰņOacute-ȪEHGampǰ0^PnKɯampFǰǝ3ƴ˗KɥampFGyacutePdlOzŪ00)Gė˃ƟG

ccedil-1ăƷ]bn4Ĵ1D)˒ɮ0GmZ-AUh-AszligːǨ1ļ+

ugraveƭ3 FITĽŌͶ3Ƹ1Ɛƕ)aRZn3Ʒ]bn1ƐGmZ-4szligːǨampF3˚ugrave3ͳKǰņ1Gampņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶUacuteYacute

HGǞUh-4˚ugraveKszligːǨ3ʜıatildeGampDF]bn3ŘͶ

10

ƴ˗ˡˡHGmZ-4oumlʡʭ93ʡ]bn)ampͶoumlɯaRZn3

ŨTHORN]bn34aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZn3So_oumlȸʿͿ

ǓƱ)G$3ampmZ3ʡ]bn4Ʒ]bn1Ġ=H0bPo

Pk$3reg33Ĵ-4ʡ]bn$3reg3ʡʭŀƍ]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿǓ

Ʊ)Famp)H4Ʒ]bn1ĠEHGbQRm14Ʒ]bn3ethȿ

ė˃10GD0ćʣĀHampʡʭʡưGoPk-4ͶoumlɯͶɅ3 Ć

1ƼņampʫȁɯbrvbarȐʿ4$3˚UgraveưȠŅ3aRZn-gɷƑ3ņ0ͶK

DFľƯ1ˬʹGKƖ00)GƷ]bn4gɷƑD7tz3ǘOacuteņ

0GͿbPb-4ű3ͶoumlɯaRZnɥ^Pn93NZdb=ampˠ

ȕ3ʪȽKȘGampƷ]bn0)G ʟĴ-4ņˠȕ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥEacuteɲ4ɚ1Ͷ3THORN1EcircFɯȲˠȕ

ņ0G1HEgraveȉotildeƊHG˯ǥHGʟĴ3QOoyM4đɔbD

FAaRZnˠȕņƷ]bnfrac12ampʟĴ3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4ǘotildeƊĖEHG

ơƣGˉģȻ1bQRm-4aRZn3ˠȕņ0)AEgraveȉ3otildeƊ

3ơƣ40H4 2008ƀ3bQRm3ˬʹ]bnmampaRZnşȣŪ0)ampamp-ė˃ƟG

igraveeacuteETHaeligăěĴʆampʰƾ3mg4ʄśƟşǦ1Iacuteͱ-0ǘOacute-G

mZ-4żͶoumlɯaRZn3OumlȖʿ4 5Έ10 ƀ3Ǵɱʰƾ^wbŋʢKƛ˞FH4ƀʢ 25kWĽġHGUh-4ʰƾ14żaRZnszligiquest-Ś3EgraveȉHG^wbŋʢ]bnD7ĸdegĠ=HFĽġH

G]bn45Έ23kWņoPk-Aǰfrac12 5ƀ3řszlig0^wbŋʢƛ˞HGľĜGbPb-4ʰƾ3ʪEHGuacuteNZd`wlO

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ʰƾ4ƀŨTHORNHampņˠȕ0aRZn-4ſĹfrac120)GD-GʟĴ-4

YN~jZbzoG4ɯȗ3ĦKordfnjGǨǴǣG˯ƻAcedilEHF

ƕ)ĽġHGmg3ʰƾ4ũ˰EgraveHGė˃ƟGoPk-AOtildeĦ3ordfnj

ƛ˞HGampũˠȕaRZn-4ʰƾ0)G=ampoPk4szligiquest3

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ɯaRZn3K˺Goumlmiddotʇ-GľĜKż4aRZn$3A31D

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bZ3Ʒȗ˟0H$HaRZn33ȪŚ1ēǧHGʟĴsup2ń33Ĵ-

AaRZn3˺3Oumlȣɞ40)Fż4 60Έ87-G ʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn˺ǞȰ4(E5Aringńɱ-G2008 ƀ14ʟĴ3Ņ3aRZnż1ˇŹǷȣɞ55 100Ϳ-˺HaRZn1ļ+Ouml4lte-)ampH4Ǖƃ3yacute3˚ugraveiacuteƄ3amp-F3iacuteƄ1DFgjZb

SZPlO13ʀEHGSZPlOyMPpbȇƉɯ˖1DGǷ˺Ϳ1ɚĀHampƏƩ

ƞŀampgjZbSZPlOyMPpbUacuteYacuteHampampʟĴ-4regĴDFAǷ]bn

0)G0J(gjZbSZPlO4żOumlDFAͿ=ampʟĴ-4Ouml1D

G˺1D)aRZn3ɅKʄIgraveampb-4aRZn-40Ȱlaquo|-

3OumlK)GľĜ)amp =-3=x 1-31-61ʆamp 43˞0]bn3Ȓƭ˞ʥD7ěĴ3 LCOEđɔ

b3 LCOEKx 1-71ʆ

11

x 1-7 rmicroQ1tzordfUacuteIgravekwIumlsect

x 1-8 4˞0]bnŃǘ3 LCOE 93ƐKE1ȣȏ˪Gamp1˞0]bnvgKĴecirc-40[1G3IJ-4ěĴ3]bnŃǘ3ƐD7đɔbȣampěĴ3 LCOE3ņKʆGȌ[y4ěĴ3 LCOE KŀdivideGOacuteKʆʲ3Ȍ[y4đɔbDFAěĴ3 LCOE Kfrac12GOacuteKʆ˞0]bnvgKLCOE đɔbDFŀdivideampʋƄȌ[yͿ3ņ1E1ʆGAring5ɯouml3ǰũŃǘ4bPbĽġampǘOacute-G

3Ĵ3ʰƾƷ]bnDFA LCOE KŀdivideG3ǰfrac12OacuteEǰOacute=-3Ĵecirc3THORNoumlvg3ʜıEɯoumlD7Ʒ]bn LCOE 1ǰAƐampJGH4ˊ1Đ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOEƨƄccedilǿˈG (IEA 2010 Cory and Schwabe 2009)ˉģȻ1ĽġHampʰƾ3ʜı4đɔbȣƷ]bn˺]bnDFA LCOE ŀdivide1ƐG3E ʰƾmg3ʄśƟeumlɥė˃Ɵƕ)THORNoumlvg3Ĵ1DG3ņLCOELJŚOacute3ȜʄƟKEHampA31ampė˃ƟGʰƾ1įGŸɮKȿEampE0Gccedilǿ

ƛ˞-GʾEHG

x 1-8 tzSUacute-1JFQ5 LCOEoslash

12

18 rkzacuteRuumljfrac14divide-1

ECN3m1DF-0ȳ1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯƯ3 LCOEKLJŚG-GraquoɠǨɏ-eumlɥ-GȳaRZn3mg4EHFɚ1Ĵecirc3 LCOE KLJŚG31ƛ˞0THORNoumlŃǘ3řszlig0mgƉGƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ1GĴecirc3 LCOE ȣ4˖)E$3đɔbAˬ0sup23Ugrave 1-5 D7 1-6 1ĽġHG]bn˺3mg3KʆɫƧmZ-4ʡʭ93ʡD7ȷƂz3ƛ˞ƟKʇmiddotɱɥGamp

aRZn3ɯȐʿHKƺ0-G3ccedilǿ-ɥampm4aR

Zn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏ1ʑ)ampA3-GampmZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF1ēǧ0m

Āccedilǿ-4Aumlɥ0)ampHE3ʡʭʡ]bnKĠG-mZ3Ʒ]bn3˟ʏF4

ʢ 3000kW10Gx 1-71HE3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1˟ʏA)amp LCOEyacuteYjKʆ

Ugrave 1-5 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+fOslashfrac12JFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn aRZn3ɛȯ 2007ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF 2008ƀ]bn3˟ʏF

ʓŶƀ 2007ƀ 2010ƀƔĄ ɚŚH ɯƯ^Pc(MW) 20 23 50

Ͷļǘ 60 90 12 szligːǨ 3350 3800 3700 Ʒ(eurokW) 3315 1883 3230

ǑĐ]bn(eurokW) 0 0 0 reg3]bn(euroMWh) 11 0 0 ʰƾijŚͿ

(euroMWh) 149 0 123

ʰƾŃuumlͿ(euroMWh) 0 24 0

njʰƾʱͳ(euroMWh) 44 24 33

ˀɥƀǘ 15 25 20

x 1-6 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+faringmJFQ5

2007ƀ Uh

Prinses Amalia

2008ƀ mZ Roslashdsand II

2008ƀ oPk

ˊɱ0^Pn OumleumlɲɞͿ 50 45 65 ǷeumlɲɞͿ 120 112 150 OumlotildeĜͿ 50 26 70 ǷotildeĜͿ 50 74 30 ǴƀͿ 15 13 12 Ĵ3ʌɞͿ 255 250 298

WACCͿ 79 92 77

Ugrave 1-7 acuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+f LCOEthornFG

LCOE euroMWh ($MWh)

yacuteYj euroMWh ($MWh)

Prinses Amalia 166 (231) oPkˊcurrenɂ NA oPkˊcurrenɂ 156 (217) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 6 (8) Roslashdsand IIcurrenɂ 88 (122) Prinses Amalia 5 (7)

13

19 T LCOEYacuteEgravesup2

LCOE4==0ɶɱuumlȗD7˸ʿ3amp1˩ʙHGˊźȤǕʘȪŚʿƷŞaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿʗě3ɚŚ3qcKɄamp LCOE KeumlɥGamp) LCOE 1AumlJHGưȰ4ȓ-40LCOEK3ʋƄ˳LJŚGG43ʋƄ3sup3Śƛ˞4AumlɥG˩ʙǞȰ1D)==-FH LCOE 3ʫȁ1˒ƐG3ampecirc3 LCOE ˩ʙǞȰK=-3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECNmD7ǞȰťȣsup21˷ǥG Aring5ș˩ɩ`pU-4Ʒ]bn3ɠķOacuteD7ʇmiddotɱotildeƊɞKɥotildeFƊampƀ]bn3ſ

Ĺ1ļ+ćʣĀampdeg˘OacuteKɥ LCOE K˟ʏAGľĜG3Ni-4OumlǷȣɞOumlǷ]bnǴȰlaquoʌ)ampǥʄ0ɅʄIgraveǼacute3sup3Ś0H0$3degJF3ćʣ

0ǞȰ-4otildeƊɞLOacute3gtKɥF$H1D)yacuteưȠ3ɚƙKszlig˘GIEA 3Projected Costs of Generation Electricityrdquo (IEA2010) D7IEA World Energy Outlook 2009rdquo (IEA 2009) 43NiKɥFsup23Ɖ1DF LCOEK˩ʙG

3Ni-4IEA 4otildeƊɞKʇmiddotɱɅ]bn13˘G3]bn4ʇmiddotszligiquestɚŚ

3ƴ˗1ƷG1ƺ]bnK˘ (IEA2010)3ʇmiddotɱ˟ĸEIEA4otildeƊɞ 5Έ10KɥF5KȣɱŘŚɱ0ɢĿ1GOumlyacuteŰ˖bZ3frac12ƷŞeumlɥ-Gɞ1310K˒ʪȽɱƴ˗ɱbZD7EgraveȉbZ1ɷGƷŞ3Ʒ]bn13G (IEA2010)DFćʣĀampș˩ɩ`pU1DFTHORNoumlvg3ǘKǰũ1˳ʧƄ1D)ěʍ3ɯĺ3 LCOE KşǦ1ȣG-G H41 ɯȐʿ4 ECNm3D0Ƅ0Xj`ymKAuml)ɚŚ3aRZn

ě3 LCOE0E71ȜģɠķEgraveOacuteatildeĔɲɞȽǴ)ampreg3yacuteƿȔK˰EgraveG3m1˜ǘ3ƯDzʿ3ǥʄ0˺3ntildeNjǼacuteʌ3Ɛ$3reg3ĔTHORNG4]bn3ƐKĠ

GľĜAGǨ143mKɥegrave3ɉķɱ0]bn3ȵHK˰EgraveampFparaȐ3ɚŚ3

aRZn93ƷKė˃1GeumlɲƖEHGD0SrYEgraveȉKȪŚampFG(Harper et al 2007)3˳ʧ0ǞȰKɥampľĜƷ]bnBƀʪ-0ǘŅ3˞į LCOE 1ƐG10GaRZnƈˬ3ǰʨɱ0ȪŚȖ4ƷŞ1GampͶoumlɯ3ʮʯɱ0ˬʹKė˃1G]bn3OacuteKɡ˥

G14ƷŞ3ˡɏKɡ˥G˞-G Aring3ccedilǿ-ɥamp ECN m4ƾccedilƷŞ1ƯŚ3Ƿeumlɲɞ (ROE) KIgrave˯aR

ZnȢ1 LCOEK˰EgraveGamp3Ƅ0Xj`ym-GYacute1ampD1ECN3Xj`ymKE1˳ʧ0A31G-ǷD7OumleumlőKƾ˺ȒKǥʄ1˘-

G=ampͶoumlɯ3]bnKaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏE˘-aRZnKGamp

3ĔTHORN3ȵH-ɸȡ0H50E0Ͷoumlɯ]bnK˟ʏG-G

110 LCOEYacuteEgraveocircicedilplusmnecirc

Ugrave 1-8 4otildeƊɞ LCOE ǞȰKȣampA3-GXj`yccedilǿ3ćʣ0ǞȰƄ0ǞȰ3ǞKɥ3otildeƊɞ1 LCOE K˟ʏFreg3egrave3]bnvgKě3đɔb1ɔEŚampE1HEʿ3ǞȰ1D)đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿKɣ GotildeƊɞK˘G

t=1Tsum Ʒ t + ʰƾ t + ɗǛ t + Ɏʥ]bn t + ǑĐ t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

LCOE =

t=1Tsum ɯouml t 1 + otildeƊɞndasht

Ϳ

14

ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3ˡɏELdeg˘ɱ0otildeƊɞ4Ȥ3aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿG4ƷŞ3ˡɏ1ʑ

)ampotildeƊɞ3OacuteDFfrac120GtimesğGIEA2010 1DH5ʇmiddotɱƷŞ3otildeƊɞfrac120)Gɡɦ4bZŪǘ3ȤƷŞ-40ǘŅ3IumllaquoƷŞ1ccedilǗHGampɷGbZ˺]bn

Ū00Gamp-G$H1sup1ʇmiddotɱˡɏE3 LCOE 3˟ʏFAȤƷŞ3˟ʏFDFAfrac120Gtimesğ1G

Ugrave 1-8 icedil LCOEsup2plusmnecirc

ǞȰͽˡɏ ˡɏ ˺]

bn3Ʋ ɥ m

otildeƊɞ3

ʜı

otildeƊɞ3ʜı

1G LCOE

đɔb3

LCOEKɣ GotildeƊɞ

ș`pU ˩ɩ3ćʣ˩ʙ

agraveɱʇmiddotɱ ƷŞ3ˡɏ

otildeƊɞ1 ĠG IEA2010 5Έ10

53Έ70MWh

IEA3ǞȰͿ

95 IEA3ǞȰͿ

ƄXj`

yccedilǿ

aRZn ɯbrvbarȐʿG

4ȤƷŞ ǥʄ1Śʻ ECN2008 75Έ15

(ROE) 64Έ76

MWh 10

ECN3ǞȰͿ

reg3szlig3Ńǘ1đɔb3ntildeNjǼacuteKɥ Ƿccedilǿ-ĽġHamp ROE3ʜı1ļ+

Ugrave 1-8 1ʆD1(E3Ni-ALotildeƊɞ3 LCOE Oacute1˒ƐG95otildeƊɞ4ʇmiddot3ˡɏK˘ʞɬ0˩ʙȰKɥđɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿK˩ʙG31ƛ˞0Oacute-Gƕ)Ƿʃʐ3đdivide˽ĴĽġampmg1ļ+0E3otildeƊɞ4ǰņOacute1+4-F

IEA-43ʜıK 5Έ10GH4ʞɬĀampʇmiddotɱ˩ɩǞȰKɥƄXj`yưȰ3ordmOacuteKǥE1ampA3-G 1frac12Ǟ3otildeƊɞNjȊHampŽ3ǰAfrac12OacuteͿˊƷŞ3bK˘amp1ɥEHGƕ)

LCOEK˩ʙG14=ampͶoumlɯ3 LCOEKreg3Ʌ3 LCOEȣG14aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ˡɏG4DFƁoumlʡʭ|3ˡɏ3(E1ʑ)GKǥʄ1GėȘ-G

otildeƊɞ3Ƹ4$3ˡɏ1ťƜGdz=LCOEK˘ěʍ3ƉKɥGľĜ4ʑˆGˡɏotildeƊɞ$3reg3vg3OacuteKǥʄ1˥Gƛ˞HG

111 Iumlatilde

IEAWind Task263ʫȁELCOEĴ1D)ņɮ0)GJG33ƄĜ4ɯoumlƷɥ˺)ampě]bn3Ɛ1DGA3HGcurrenƦFĴŞ3 LCOE3Ÿɮ1ǰAƐamp34Ƿɱ0ͶȯG4Ͷ3ƴ˗shyȓ1ļ+currenɂHGɯouml-G=amp

ǷɱǓaeligD7ͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ǽacuteņɮ0GEźľoumlAͶoumlɯ3]bnszligiquest

1˒ƐGE1ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾAěĴ-˒ɮ0FH LCOE 1ņ1Ɛamp 63ɂŚļɆ-SrY3]bnszligˊK˘ LCOE 3Ɵ4ĴBɶɱ˸ʿ$3reg3eumlɥʿ3

-ćʣ0ȣ-GD1ƝJHGLCOE3ěʍ3˩ʙ3ˡɏE3D10HampKȜʄ1ɡ˥Gƛ˞GLCOE4ɪaacute-Aordfnjė˃0˩ʙ-A0IɚŚ3qc1ɥHGDzɲ-Eacuteeuml0k-Gƕ)ȣD7$3ʫȁ3˥14ɫƧGdz=

rOtildemiddot

Cory and Schwabe 2010 ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financial Variablesrdquo httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2009) ldquoThe Economics of Wind Energy A Report by the European Wind

15

Energy Associationrdquo March 2009 Available at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentspublicationsreportsEconomics_of _Wind_Main_Report_FINAL-lrpdf

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (2010) ldquoWind in Power 2009 European Statisticsrdquo The European Wind Energy Association February 2010 Accessed at httpwwweweaorgfileadminewea_documentsdocumentsstatistics100401_General_Stats_20 09pdf

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review and Comparative Analysisrdquo Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 Accessed at httpeetdlblgoveaempreports63434pdf

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2006) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2006rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2006weo2006pdf

IEA (2008) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2008rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2008weo2008pdf

IEA (2009) ldquoWorld Energy Outlook 2009rdquo International Energy Agency Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgWbookshopaddaspxid=388

IEA (2010) ldquoProjected Costs of Generating Electricityrdquo 2010 Edition Accessed at

httpwwwieaorgpublicationsfree_new_DescaspPUBS_ID=2207

RECaBs (2007) ldquoRECaBs Interactive Renewable Energy Calculatorrdquo Renewable Energy Calculator Accessed August 2010 at httpwwwrecabsorg

Wiser R Bolinger M (2010) ldquo2009 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy August 2010 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs2009_wind_technologies_market_reportpdf

16

Aring 2Auml NDQ+

21 NDQ+uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ȑ˞0E71]bn3ɚƙKG-

4 2008 ƀ3D7ȳͶoumlɯƴ˗1GĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1ɒɏKƎG

211 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

2008ƀǶ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ĝ˩ 3179MW 2756MWȳ 423MWͿ-H4 2007ƀǶ3ˬOtildeş1ťʢ 1252000ƀ3ˬOtildeşDFA 32ŀdivideG2001ƀE 2008ƀ=-1ŀdivideampˬOtildeş3ʢĄǘ4ȳͶoumlɯ1DGA3-G2008 ƀ1ȳ-ƈˬ3ȳQOoyM4 3F(64 2009ƀ1řƭA64 2010ƀʈ1ŐGcurrenŚ-GˮȲ 5 x 2-1 1ʆD1ŨTHORN3Ƅ4Ǵ15EņJG2001ƀE 2003ƀ1

ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 725MW ŀdivideamp2004 ƀE 2007 ƀ=-4 8MW ŀdivideamp10H4 2003 ƀ1śǟHampaRZn3ǕɱǓǎ˩ɩņŽ1ȿͳHampʫȁ-GHK˚amp1 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampǝamp0ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFͶ3ƈˬǝamp1ȲɶHG10)amp2008ƀ3 FITŨTHORNƔ2010ƀ 7DZǶ=-1Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş4Ȝģ 280MWŀdivideG (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ1D)mZ3ʱoumlȸ3ʢ 20AEligʬHG

x 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

ˮȲ 5 Roslashdsand IIȳͶoumlɯƯ4 2010ƀ 8DZ1ŐG

17

mZ4ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ƀșɶȔKŚ0EU 3˞Ȩ1DH5mZ4 2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯ-ʱSrYȸ3 30Kamp3˩ɩKʘŚ0H50E0EU-4szlig3divideɳĴ13aumlɣė˃SrY3ɶȔOacuteKƭGamp3˖uuml˩ɩ3AcircƭKʻyacutemacrFm

Z4 2010ƀ 6DZ1Ĵ3˖uuml˩ɩKɯ˘G3˩ɩ-42020ƀ=-1ˬOtildeşKʢ 4 GW$H1D)Ͷoumlɯ4 11000 GWh10GcurrenƦHG=ampʱş3 3ccedil3 1D7ouml3ʢ 50Kȳ1ˬʹGͶEƖGcurrenƦHG (Kemin 2010)(0gt12009ƀ3ɯouml4ʢ 6700 MWh-G2010 ƀD7 2020 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3currenɂ4ěȚŵdivideɳĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 1ļ+A3-G(European Commission 2010) ʁǴɶȔ2008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MW3divide0E71Ͷoumlɯ3ˬ

Otildeş 350 MW3ǝˬŚEHG3ɶȔOacute3Ąccedil4Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ1D)ƭA3-$H1D)ʦʏş4 175 MWŀdivideG10GĸǞ3˩ɩƎŬ42012ƀ=-1 350MW1divideş 150 MWKdivideGamp3˩ɩKˠŚ0H50E0 ȳͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 800 MWKdivideGʁǴɶȔ433ņˠȕ0ȳͶoumlɯƯ0J( Horns

Rev II209 MW2009ƀ 9DZŐͿRoslashdsand II207 MW2010ƀʈʓŶcurrenŚͿAnholt400 MW2012ƀ12DZʓŶcurrenŚͿ1DFƭHG˟gt-G

Ugrave 2-1 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

1761 2358 2464 2697 2708 2716 2720 2728 2717 2756 2985 2621

ȳ 11 50 50 210 423 423 423 423 423 423 856 1339

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 2-2 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

176 1 597 106 183 12 8 4 8 ndash11 39 ndash38 ndash135

ȳ 11 39 0 210 223 0 0 0 0 0 100 ndash14

ǛΆDanish Wind Industry Association 2010 and European Commission 2010

212 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1iacuteŚHampaumlɣė˃SrYȰ1DFͶoumlɯaRZn3ǝamp0ĽiacuteƄŨTHORNHampǝamp03ͶoumlɯaRZnD7UoN13ȳaRZnĎȲ8-4HAszligːǨ

22000Ǩ1igraveG=-bjnźľEgraveȉ1divide 025mZZrkW0034kW ĎȲ9 0047okWͿ3ugraveƭNjAEligHGĎȲ10szligːǨ˫3Ǩ1igraveampƔ4źľEgraveȉKĖĕG10

G Ͷ1ť4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥƀǘ3Ǵ ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3˚ugraveƀ 0023mZ

ZrkW00037kW 0005okWͿ˚ugraveHG

ĎȲ8 UoNaRZn134ȳͶoumlɯƯ3THORNǸư4ecirc1ƈˬHGȳͶoumlɯƯ3aRZn

ŚʻHG13ȳͶoumlɯƯUoNɧ˻db1DFƈˬHG ĎȲ9 17353mZZr ĎȲ10 ɠ˖3Egraveȉ˚ugraveiacuteƄ4ͶoumlɯaRZn93ugraveƭK 1 kWampF 010mZZr0013Ϳamp

[1degJ)ŨTHORNHampA3-G

18

ˊɱ1mZ-4ͶszligːǨ- 22000Ǩ3ɯK˖147ƀE 10ƀGAring5 3 MWͶKˬʹGH5FIT4ș3D1ȪŚHGĎȲ11

3 MWͶszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 3000 kWh

3000 kWh times 22000 = 66 GWh FITʬ˺Ǚ˚ugrave43 MWͶ 66 GWhɯG=-3ǴǓƱJHG3Oacute4ș3D10G

(66 GWh times 025Zr) + (66 GWh times 0023Zr) = 18064200Zr

Ǡœ3ͶoumlɯƯ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4ʽǹĀampͶKǑĐGǝˠ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1A

ɥHG3ͳ4ǑĐHampˬOtildeş3 2ETHKɣɤGamp3szligːǨ 12000Ǩ1ť 008mZZrkW001kW 00139okWͿ-GAring5 225 kW3ͶKTHORNǝˠ3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn1D)ǑĐGľĜˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugraveK˩ʙGsup23D10G

225 kW times 2ļszligːǨ΅Ǩ-ɯGouml = 450 kWh

450 kWh times 12000 = 54 GW

ǑĐamp 225 kWͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ3amp3˚ugrave4

54 GWh times 008Zr = 432000Zr 3˚ugraveɥHG34450 kWǵɄ3ͶKǑĐGľĜ1EHG3˚ugrave3ơƣKĖGamp

3ǝˠaRZn-ǑĐGͶ3ǘ1iacuteˬEHGJ-403˚ugraveɥHG34

450 kWǵɄ3ͶK˩ 175 MWKǑĐGľĜ1EHG szligːǨ1ļ+ FIT-4Ś3 kWh3ɯǨ-40ˊ1tzgɷƑņͶD

FAņĺ3ɯȗKOtildeampͶ93ƷUacuteHGAring5 3 MW 3ɯȗ3szligːǨampFɯouml (kWh) 415 MWͶ3 2ETH-ƕ)ĖĕG˚ugrave3ͳAETH10G ș1ʆUgrave 2-3D7 2-44FITͶoumlaRZn1GͶ3Ƹ1ĒltƐKʆampA3-3

Aring4ś3aRZn1ļ+G

Ugrave 2-3 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITuh AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave[]psup312

ɯȗ3

ˠȕ

MWͿ

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ ouml

MWhͿ

Ͷ 1ļampF3aRZn]bn

(DKK)

oumlłͳ (DKK)

ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 223 098 30 90 90 7497 23430 5250 224 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 223 098 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 227 100

(Nielsen et al 2010)

ĎȲ11 3Aring4reg3Ĵ3ʒ14Ġ=H0ampmZZr-ĽġG ĎȲ12 ĝ

19

Ugrave 2-4 `aumltimesiexcloacute| FITu AyacuteLQ5iquestfrac14dividenotethraquo 4uumlegraveAgrave]

ɯȗ

^Pc(MW)

g (m)

tz

(m)

ƀɯ

ouml (MWh)

Ͷ 1ļampF3aR

Zn]bn

(DKK)

ouml łͳ(DKK)

˚ugrave

(DKK) ʱĔTHORN

(DKK) ĔTHORN΄

Ʒ ɸťɱ

EgraveOacute

30 90 80 7089 2220 4960 1650 6610 298 100 30 90 90 7497 2343 5250 1650 6900 295 099 30 112 94 10384 3260 7270 1650 8920 273 092 18 90 80 6047 1860 4230 990 5220 281 094

(Nielsen et al 2010)

˫3AringEņĺ3gg1ƷGDFAņĺ3ɯȗ1ƷGǞszligːǨ1ļ+

FIT 3ơƣKĖBJGUgrave 2-3 1ʆHGD1ǰAʪȽucircɞ3ˍͶ4ņĺgKOtildeamp 18 MW3ȣɱũĺ3Ͷ-GH4szlig3Ͷ-Ś3ɯouml kWhKļ1ampľĜ3 FIT1AƎ4=GUgrave 2-4 EszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT E3divideɱĔTHORNƖEHB34gɷƑũtzfrac12 3 MW3ɯȗ-Fȣɱũĺ3ɯȗ4 3frac141ˑ(GJG

FIT3ļɆszligːǨKɥGjn4currenˠŚHampˬOtildeşKƭGamp1ˬʹHGͶ3ǘŪ00G-G=ampH1DFgɷƑtz3OacuteKGjnAŪ00G

HE 2 3ʹ˩ɩKʘŚaRZnKĸUcirc-ĖTHORNHAE1ĪͲ0GľĜGszligːǨ1ļ+ FIT 4mZ3ͶoumlɯŨTHORN3ʁǴɱɶȔOacute)ampˬOtildeş1ļ+ǕʘɱɶȔOacuteƭHGD1Gamp3A3-G szligːǨK FIT 3ļɆG3mjn4˚ugrave1DFźľ3ȝgtɣ GampǰAʪȽɱucircɞ

3ˍͶƛAaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ1)ǰAͺoumlɱ0gw-400G-G

$3ampǰʨɱ14Ͷoumlɯreg3ɅDFA10F20mZ-43ƏƉ3 FIT AumlJHGampɯoumlKļɆampɶȔOacuteƭ1G]bn0Gʫȁ0G

22 NDQ+ 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-4mZ1G 2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKG-ɥampmg42008 ƀ1˩ɩG4śǟHampaRZn3ſĹOacute1ļ+A3-GͶ93Ʒ]bn4^Pn3Ǽacute1DFŚ-40mZ-4ɯ]bnȣɱŚGD-GˬOtildeş MWampF3Ʒ]bn14ǰņ- 503GeacuteƀƄ3ɯouml MWh ampFƷ]bn3Ńuumlɞ4 15ǵɄ-G

221 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para mZ3ͶoumlɯaRZ-n4ˊ1Ū0Ͷǘ3Έ12ļͿ3ͶʺKɥG˩ɩW

PoP-4Ū0A 3ļ3ͶKɷʳɛG4ʵB0ŔKNJD1=ʹGGH4ͶK 1 ļccedilǗɱ1ʹGˡˢɱĉƋ0GE-GmZ14ņˠȕQOoyM3AringGbPBʟĴņ0A3-40ǰņˠȕ3b4Ͷ 20ļKˬʹGʱş 63 MWͿ

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹŚȉş4 19 MW-F$3gɷƑ4 80 mtz4 72 m-G2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ-ǰAˊɱ034 23 MW3Ͷ-F$3tz4 80 mgɷƑ4 93 m-G

(b) BL0+Ouml mZ3Ͷğ4ˊ1˝ğ-GampͶ3^PnɡƦɱ034āȷȮų10G

20

ˊɱ1ͶɅ4ǾŪ00)GȮųĸŻ$3Ģ-4ƀſĹͶ 7 msKGH4 2 MWͶtz 80 mͿ1ļ1ťszligːǨʢ 2500Ǩ1ɸƎG(Danish Energy Agency 2010)2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3 2009ƀƄ3szligːǨ4ſĹ 2639Ǩ-)amp2009ƀ3mZ3ͶɅ4żƀ3 88-2008 ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3szligːǨ4szligˀɥƀǘſĹ-ʢ 3000 Ǩ10GcurrenƦHGɫƧszligːǨ3LJŚOacute4mZszligiquest3ͶɅl`1GA3-402008ƀ1ˬʹH2009ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+˩ʙampA3-G

(c) ccedil-1 2008ƀƄ3deg˘ɱ0aRZnƷ]bn141100kW1529okWͿE 1300kW1807

okWͿ=-F$3ſĹ4 1250 kW1738 okWͿ-GEgraveȉ4 2008 ƀ1xZ1ampƔ2009ƀ 2010ƀ1ņŽ1frac12GɚƙG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ1GͶ3ʰƾ4IgraveIcircɡ^wbŋʢĸdegĵĸʚɡ3 4 ɶ-ȒƭH

GHE3ɶ$HHͶoumlɯƯ3ɣȹʰƾ3ʢ 25KĈG2008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶoumlɯaRZn1currenƦHGɣȹʰƾ412MWh17oMWhͿ-G (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m4ƀ|b3Ouml 80-K˺GaRZnKɥGmZ1GȤ

ƯDz3Ͷ4ˊ1ƎƅOgraveŋʢ1DFK˺Gegrave3ĔTHORNKƎƅOgraveŋʢ1Ʒ FͶ

3ƯDzʿ43ļKɷDžeumlɥG-0Ʒ1ťGeumlɊ93ǓaeligǓƱ4szligOumlȖʿ3Ƴ˴

ʻyacutemacrEHG mZ3ɡƦɱ0aRZn4100Ouml-K˺GaRZn-Gż3aRZ

n-4Ouml1DG˺3otildeĜʢ 800)GͶoumlɯaRZn1ťGOgraveTHORNĮĔǴĖTHORNHė˃034 15ƀsup2atilde-G

2008 ƀƄ3ƎƅOgraveŋʢ3eumlő4ʢ 5ͼ-H4 5 ƀijŚHGͶoumlɯaRZn4reg3ƷȗɱbrvbarȐȣȵuumlƟ˟0HGampˊ1eumlőfrac120)GͶoumlɯaRZ

n3bZ˞įKʚɡ-Gegrave0ưȠGEͶ93Ʒ4bZfrac12˟0HG mZ1GǝˠaRZn3ľĜʣɤɞ4ż 9Έ11-G3amp 5~73bZ

Nė˃10G3EA1983ƀE 2002ƀ=-3mZ˯icircȇƉĕƊƯ3 OMX203bZNſĹ 72)amp3ȣͶoumlɯaRZn3bZȣɱfrac12JGĎȲ13 (Saabye 2003)

(f) s_N3N9A Ͷ30ĔTHORNɅ4NordPool źľK 3oumlłFIT Ə-3Egraveȉ˚ugrave-Gʬ˺

ǙbrvbarȐʿ3Ͷ3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢK 5ƀ=-ƇG-GĎȲ14HE3ijŚEgraveȉŋʢ4 Nord Pool3Yacuteəźľ1Ɇ ʴʫHG

(g) Q54Q1 mg4 Economy of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ1

ļ+A3-G

222 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para 2008 ƀ1mZ-ŐampȳaRZn40HA˩ɩG4ƈˬȠ1GȳQ

OoyMɯ4ˊ1Ǖƃ3˴ėKƖEHG10G3˴ė4THORNǸʋKEHG

A3-szligːǨ 50000Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml kWhampF3THORNǸ1ťǰfrac12Egraveȉ3A31˴ė

ĎȲ13 Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark ĎȲ14 10ƀijŚEgraveȉKNjAEligGǝˠ3ɯAɰľG

21

aeligHG10GHornz Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand I amp II4THORNǸʋKʪśɠampaRZn-GAnholt3ǝȳQOoyM3THORNǸǴ4 2010ƀ 6DZ1ʨpoundG$3ˬOtildeş4 400 MW-2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-1KŐG10G UoN13ǞƉĎȲ15QOoyMA˴ėHGUoNǞƉQOoyM3ˬʹlaquo

ƖEHH5Ͷ1Aĝ PdlOz[ɥHG10Gɠķ=-1 2 3UoNǞƉ3QOoyMƈˬHG

(b) ccedil-1 mZ1GȳQOoyMɯbrvbarȐʿ3Ʒ]bn4˴ėiacute3THORNǸʋKʪampʢ 200 MW3

ņˠȕQOoyM1ťʢ 2700Έ3000kW3753Έ4170okWͿ-G ȳQOoyMKĴatilde3oumlʡʭȳŃĶˬOtilde1ʡGamp3]bn4mZ-4Ĵƺ

GampaRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷʱͳŪ00)GɢĿƐ˰Egravebrvbarntilde3ȷƂĸ˰Egrave3]

bnAĴƺG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ȳQOoyM3ʰƾ4ʭ˩mgEHF=ampȳQOoyMɥʪǬʳ

ƞthornKƭGamp1ʄśƟmZ3ņˠȕȳQOoyM3ɣȹʰƾ4ĸ

Ļ3ɛȯ1DF 18MWh25oMWhͿE 20MWh28oMWhͿ=-G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mZ3ņˠȕQOoyM3˺4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ȪʙǴszligiquest1ɀ)˖JH

GsmOjZƷ˖E3OgraveTHORN˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM1eumlɥHGraquoH4

aRZn93˺Ə-˖JHGJ-40Ϳ˴ ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4ż 50ƍ3Ƿȣɞ-˺HG mZ3oumlmiddotʇ3Ƿ]bn4ʢ 112ͼ Ouml]bn4 4555˩ʙHG (Nielsen et al 2010)

(e) s_N3N9A ˴ėiacute3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ɯouml3ijŚEgraveȉKĖĕ)

GijŚEgraveȉ4THORNǸdb-ȪŚHGTHORNǸEgraveȉ4˺ǙHampƿȔ-40szligːǨ 50000 Ǩ1G=-3ĔTHORN Nord PooloumlĕƊ-3ł-ƖEHampƔ1ȪŚHGHorns Rev II3ˑǸEgraveȉ4 0069kWh0096okWhͿRoslashdsand II4 0085kWh0118o kWhͿ-GźľEgraveȉ1ťGEgraveȉ˚ugrave4ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿTHORNǸEgraveȉ1Ɯ NjAEligGźľEgraveȉTHORNǸEgraveȉDFľĜQOoyM

Eʡʭɥʿ1ŸͳKǓƱJ250E0 ˴ėiacute-0G4UoN13ǞƉ3ȳQOoyM4szligːǨ 22000 Ǩ1G

=- 0034kWh0047okWhͿD7Ͷeumlɥ-Greg3˚ugraveKĖĕG

(f) Q54Q1 Horns Rev I amp IID7 Roslashdsand II3ƈˬ]bnʱͳ1Gmg4eumlɥė˃0agraveɱƥĽmZ3ȳ

QOoyMɯ3ŦŞD7ȳQOoyMƯDzʿ0E71ȳQOoyM3˺

ʿ93ˁĕF˺ȆE1THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙEƖampA3-G

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘4mZ3D7ȳͶoumlɯ1ɥampmĀ3ntildeNjǼacute3ȑ˞-G

ĎȲ15 UoN13aRZn4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3THORNǸʋKʪ1˖JHGȳƈˬaRZnŚ

ʻHG3 23QOoyM1divide13ȳɯƯUoNɧ˻db1D)ƈˬHG

22

Ugrave 2-5 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ16

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ17 ȳ

2008ƀĎȲ18 ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 23 23 23 Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 3 91 90 ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2700 4300 3865

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 25 25 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1250 2844 3000

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash (1738) (3953) (4170) ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 12 (17) 20 (28) 18 (25) $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 3 (4) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆ Economics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010

Ugrave 2-6 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 50 55 45 Ƿeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 110 112 112 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 80 45 26 Ƿ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 20 66 74

WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 52 88 95 Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 13 10 13 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 25 25 25

FXn $US 139 139 139 FXn DKK ndashndashndash 7353 ndashndashndash 7353

ǛΆEconomics of Wind Turbines Nielsen et al 2010˖D7aeligIacuteɥļ93ˁĕF˺Ȇ

Ugrave 2-7 NDQ+uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 447 (621) 28 (39) 447 (621) źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 37 (51) 70 (97) 85 (118) FITǕʘǴ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 22000 50000 50000 ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ƀǰņ 25 ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

LVRT ˮȲ 6ĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash NA NA NA

ǛΆNielsen et al 2010 Danish Energy Agency 2008 Danish Energy Agency 2009 ĎȲ16 2007ƀ14mZ-ǝamp1ƈˬHampͶ40)amp ĎȲ17 2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ȳ1Ͷ4ƈˬH0)ampȳQOoyM 3ƈˬG4˩ɩȠ1)amp

$3( 24Ǖƃ3˴ė˩ɩ1ļ+A3-ȟF64UoN13aRZn-)ampHorns Rev II3ǰʨɱ0Ʒ3ȪŚ4 2007ƀ10Hampamp3ǘŒ4 Horns Rev II3LJŚ]bn1ļ+GRoslashdsand II3ƷȪŚ4 2008ƀ10H$Hĝƀ3]bn3Ȉƻ0)G

ĎȲ18 -ɥampAring42008ƀ1ƈˬŋʢʴʫHamp Roslashdsand II3THORNǸEgraveȉ1ļ+˩ʙG ˮȲ 6 LVRT (Low Voltage Ride Through) Ķɾfrac12Ǩ1AͶ0ͶoumlɯƯ3KʮʯʡʭŘŚƄKʰƾGȗ˃

23

223 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc 2008ƀ3mZ1GͶoumlɯ93ƷmgKɥ LCOEK˩ʙAring 1Auml1ʆampđɔb3

LCOEȣampđɔb4Wind Task263szligđdivideĴ3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn-G đɔb3 6 Ńǘ3ƐKmZ3brvbarAringȣěŃǘmZ3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOE 1Ɛ

GKǥE1ampđɔbmZ3brvbarAringKȣampʫȁKx 2-2 1ʆmZ3ſĹɱaRZn3 LCOE42008ƀ14 61MWh85oMWhͿ-H4đɔb3 LCOE68MWhͿDFA 7MWh10oMWhͿfrac12)amp

x 2-2 NDQ+rmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup319

(b) BL0+dj đɔb3aRZn3aeligouml4szligːǨ 2600ǨKBBĮ)ampǞ 2008ƀ1Őamp

mZ3aRZn3 2009ƀ3ſĹɯouml4szligːǨ 2700ǨKBBĮ)ampH4 2009ƀ3ͶȯƤͶoumlɯ3ɯoumlAringƀ3 88ͼ10)ampamp-G3ɏKʾƬG2008ƀƄ3ſĹɱaRZn3ƀszligːǨ4ʢ 3000Ǩ-H1DFaRZn3ʪȽƟ=FLCOEʢ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿfrac12amp10GmZ3brvbarAring3szligːǨđɔbȣǤH5GLCOE4ʢ 1MWh1oMWhͿfrac12G

(c) Ntildeccedil-1 2008ƀ1GmZ3Ʒ]bn4đɔbDFAʢ 200kW278okWͿfrac12m

Z3aRZn]bn 15frac120)amp34mZ3ʡʭʡ]bnKƺG3ʡʭɥʿ-Gamp-G ʡʭɥʿ4ĖɏE3ʡ]bnKǓƱ3]bn14ŃƯBŃĶĬ3]bnĠ=HG3

aRZn3ƯDzʿ4ͶEĖɏ=-3]bnKǓƱA3SNʹ˩ɩˠiuml1GͶS

N˟0HGľĜ$3SN3ʡʭɥbrvbarȐʿĖɏ=-ʡ-GD1ʡʭKƼƌ0H50E0

3]bn4ʡʭɥʿƺG3ˠiacute1DFaRZn]bnszligiquestKņŽ1ȿE-

GHKx 2-31ʆ đɔbDFAƷ]bnfrac120)G˞į4reg1ƈˬ^Pn3ĸɡɱǼacuteegrave0ĸ

Ucirc1ƍouml0Ͷ˛ɤȐD7ʪŢ0aRZnɯœķGʹ˩ɩɢĿƐ˰Egrave1

GͶ3Ȱˠiacuteăccedil1ǙOtildeHGǀEHG

ĎȲ19 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4ĭǂcopyTHORN3ampđɔběĴ LCOE3Ÿ3

Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

24

x 2-3 NDQ+eumlEuml-1-1iumleGK

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mZ3˺]bn4đɔbDFAͳ-GmZ3aRZn-ƛ˞H

GǷeumlɲɞ4 110ͼđɔb-4 100Ϳ-ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ouml3ſĹeumlɞ4đɔbȣGOuml1DG˺3otildeĜĝʋƄ-G mZ-4Ͷ3ȵuumlƟͶoumlɯaRZn3ucircɞɱ0bZranĩĦźľ-eumlɥ

-GampͶ3˺1GbZ3|frac12˟0HGmZ3aR

Zn3Oumleumlő1˘HGmZ-4Ƿ]bn0)G34oumlźľ1GEgraveȉbZ

1ǩHGʄɞamp-GH4 FIT 1D)ȽKIgrave˯GDFźľEgraveȉK˚)Gamp-FFITKŨTHORNGreg3Ĵ-AltAringń0ĝ ɛȯ10)GmZ14yacute]bnKGė˃Ɵ3Gfynʗ1eumlɥ-GǓǎbX4œķ0 ˺]bn1D)mZ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFAʢ 3 MWh4 oMWhͿ0)

G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig mZ3ʰƾ4Ńuuml133gt˘ʆHG2009ƀD7 2010ƀ3yumlƽɱʃʐ (Nelson

et al 2010) 1DH52008ƀ1ƈˬHampͶ3ʰƾ4aRZn3ƴ˗ɱˀɥǴszligiquest- 12MWh17oMWhͿ10Gʰƾ1D)mZ3aRZn3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 1MWh1oMWhͿfrac120)G

(f) 13T-1 mZ1Greg3]bn14ʬ˺Ǚ]bnGmZ14 3 oMWh4 oMWhͿ3

ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3ugraveƭiacuteƄF3ͳ4ś3Ͷ3ʬ˺Ǚ]bn1ʗƦŚHGreg3]bn

4đɔbȣ LCOE1LƐ0

(g) uumljfrac14divideWampgtKQCcedil mZ3ľĜͶoumlɯsup2ń3SrYǕʘ4ȰlaquoʌD7˹ʌƯƖ3eumlőǓƱ3ȿͳ1GǕ

ʘ-GmZ4đɔbDFAȰlaquoʌɞfrac12ƕ)˹ʌƯƖEǓƱeumlőKņŽ1ȿͳG

-G=ampͶoumlɯaRZn3OumlǷȣɞ0)GampmZ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFA 1MWh1oMWhͿfrac12 ˩ʙ-4ȿEgraveUgraveČ1GmZ3ˠiumlKēǧ0mZ-4ͶKĠŶȐˬOtilde3EgraveOacute

$3ȟAacuteEgraveOacute3ǰņ 25=-ƀ1ȿEgraveUgraveČHH1DFͶoumlɯsup2ń3SrYǕʘ3]bn4ʳƏɱ1frac12G3frac12ɞ4˩ʙ0

224 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj˩ʙ1DFmZ3ĔTHORNŃǘKͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘȣ

GyacuteYj4=ĔTHORNAͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOzAʾƬ1˩ʙampș1ĔTHORNŃǘ3gt

KĠyacuteYjKauml˩ʙǰƔ1ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘKĠampOacuteKauml7˩ʙamp

3Ɉŀʋ1DFǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘ1ťGĔTHORN3ɸťɱEgraveOacuteKǥE1amp x 2-4 4ĔTHORNŃǘKǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘȣampA3-G=ampHEaacute1mZ3

LCOE K3D1ȒƭGKʆG61 MWh85 oMWhͿ3(ʢ 43 MWh

25

60oMWhͿKĔTHORNɅoumlłͿ-24MWh33oMWhͿKaRZn3ˀɥǴ3FIT˚ugraveƏ-3PdlOz-ȣɞ-˧5mZ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 2KĔTHORN3Ȓƭ˞ʥ-ȟF3 3ccedil3 1K FIT-10G

x 2-4 2008NDQ+s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilthornN3N9Apsup320

mZ3mccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ampFʢ ndash6MWh ndash8oMWhͿ-GH4ſĹmZ3ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿƷŞͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯƷ3yacute˞acuteKɄamp31

ăccedil0Xj`yKoumlĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘ3PdlOzEƖGKʆĨG

23 NDQ+uumljfrac14divideBL0+

2008 ƀ1Ͷ3ĽUgraveiacuteƄǝamp1ŨTHORNHsup2ǽͶ93Ʒ0E71$3ŨTHORN93ƚaumlɗGͶoumlɯƚKGǞ-ǕƃoumlKTHORNHG34ȳQOoyM3ŨTHORN-G2008ƀ142012ƀǶ=-1ȳ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşK 800 MW1GʁǴɶȔˬŚHamp|b3ɶȔOacute4ǝˠ3Ͷouml3ˬOtildeş 175 MWǠœ3ͶoumlɯƯKˬOtildeǭǝG1D)ƖEHGˬOtildeş 175 MWHG mZ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bn4Ʒ]bnŚͳ-Gamp1đɔbDFAfrac120)G

yacute]bnʰƾ3frac12A$H1ŠGͶoumlɯ3]bn4Ͷ3Egraveȉ3frac123amp

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26

Ugrave 2-8 2007 2008NDQ+uumljfrac14divide LCOEpsup321

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave

(LCOE) euroMWh

($MWh) ndashndashndash 61 (85)

70 (97)

81 (113)

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) 67

(93) 79

(110)

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj (FG)

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(3)

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rOtildemiddot

Danish Wind Industry Association httpwindpowerorgenknowledgestatisticsthe_danish_markethtml September 2010 (Danish Wind Industry Association 2010)

Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2007 2008 (Danish Energy Agency 2008) Danish Energy Agency Energy Statistics 2008 2009 (Danish Energy Agency 2009)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Ministry of Climate and Energy National handlingsplan for vedvarende energi i Danmark 2010 (In English National Action

ĎȲ21 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampĔɲʱͳͶoumlɯǕʘͽPdlO

zD7yacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜAG

27

Plan for RE in Denmark) (Kemin 2010)

Nielsen et al Economy of Wind Turbines 2010 EUDP (Nielsen et al 2010) (Original title Vindmoslashllers Oslashkonomi)

Saabye N Risikopraeligmie paring aktier 2003 National Bank of Denmark (Saabye 2003)

28

Aring 3Auml lt8

31 lt8uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

311 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

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2009ƀȳQOoyM3ʖ 1Ě0)amp Alpha VentusʓŶampH1DFȳ3ɯŧǽŐ=GA3ǴƒHGoPkǕƃ4 2015ƀǶ=-1ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʢ 25 GW1GɶȔKɯ˘G

x 3Ă1 lt8uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

2000 ƀoPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4Ĵatildeʱɯouml3 16KĈsup2ǽ3otildeĜ4ņŽ1Ǥ8ƀƔ14 620)GcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3ŀdivideoPkǕƃ1DGɺSrY3ĕFʩgtKʾƬG3otildeĜ4notƔAǤKʯGcurrenƦHGUgrave 3-1 4oPk3Ͷoumlɯ3ĐD7ŧǽ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 3-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀşdivideKʆampA3-G

29

Ugrave 3-1 lt8IacuteAtildeTHORNOacuteeth (GW)

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2012currenƦ

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44 61 88 120 146 166 184 206 222 239 306 358

ȳ 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 100

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Ugrave 3-2 lt8oacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

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44 17 27 32 26 20 18 22 17 17 14 03

ȳ 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 04 17

ǛΆBMU Leitszenario 2009 and European Commission 2010

312 s_CcedilN3N9A

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ampSrY4ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) 1DFłHG FIT 4 2 3Ƞfrac12ͳ3ļǷǛǞƉͳ3ĽŌǞƉͿ-ȒƭHGotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ɥǴ

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ɯoumlđɔ^Pn3ɯouml3 150KĮGD13Ǵ4 060ͼ1ʮʯHG ȳͶoumlɯ3ļǷĕEgraveȉ4 62MWh86oMWhͿotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 91MWh127oMWhͿ

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(c) EEG2009 2009 ƀ3 EEG -4Ͷoumlɯ3ļǷĕǛ 502 MWh698 oMWhͿotildeŀĕEgraveȉ 92

ĎȲ22 oPk3đɔ^Pn4ǷĽġǮ-ɥampđɔb133-401ȲƧ

30

MWh128oMWhͿ1ǔ˨Hamp(E3ĕͳAQOoyM3ƈˬƀEƀɞ 1-frac12ƕ) 2009 ƀ3ƈˬaRZnĖĕGotildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 92 MWh128 oMWhͿ10G2010ƀ3ƈˬaRZn-4 91MWh126oMWhͿ10GǠœ^PnˬOtildeǭǝaRZn-H5E1 5MWh5oMWhͿ3otildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideʙHGͶoumlʡʭ3^nAring5Ģȱǘ˺ǙͿ-GľĜ42014ƀ=-1ˬʹHGǝˠaRZnĝ 5MWh7oMWhͿ3ĽotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3ť0GͶ 2010ƀ=-1ǰĀHampľĜǠœ3aRZn1ťG3otildeŀĕEgraveȉ4 7MWh10oMWhͿ1ŀdivideG ȳQOoyM14 35 MWh49 oMWhͿ3ļǷĕEgraveȉɥHGȳQOoyM

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32 lt8VUgravefrac12oumlRPacuteRuumljfrac14divideBL0+

321 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

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ōͶȯ3^Pn1ʑĸGaRZn-G3^Pn3szligːǨ4 2260ǨʋƄ10GcurrenƦHG

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aeligouml-)amp2007ƀ 2008ƀ1oPk-QOoyMƈˬ1ampĸĻ4ȣɱŪ0$3ampͶ3ǘŪ0ũˠȕ3QOoyMŅǘƈˬHG10)amp2007ƀ 2008ƀ14ˬ ʹHampǰ

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SNȣͶȯoslash)GampoPk3đɔSN3 903Ͷȯ3ľƯKaRZn^Pn1L-G

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4ŚȉaeligoumlͶ3gɷƑtz0E71Ͷ3ˊɱ0ˬ˩]dnŚȉaeligouml

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31

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ĔTHORN4SrY3 FITD7GǛEƖEHG2007ƀ1ƈˬHampaRZn3ĽŌ4 819

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(f) Q54Q1 mg4 EEG (2004) DEWI Magazine Nos 32 (2008) and 34 (2009) D7 Deutsche WindGuard GmbH ZSW3

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ɱĽġǮ1ļ+

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32

Ugrave 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

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ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA 20 Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1259 (1750) 1373 (1908) NA 3230 (4490)

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2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

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ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 95 95 NA 120 Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 70 70 NA 70

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 30 30 NA 30 WACC ͼ 56 56 NA 68

Ǵ ƀ 13 13 NA 15 Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 298 298 NA 298

FXn $US 139 139 NA 139

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard Destatis

Ugrave 3-5 lt8uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

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ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ

ƀ NA

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LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA ndashndashndash

ǛΆDeutsche WindGuard

323 lt8oumlRBL0+yuml2008ĀrmicroQ1-1plusmnecirc

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33

x 3-2 lt8uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup323

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31įG

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Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0GľĜAG

34

x 3-3 lt8uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup324

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x 3-31ʆampD15MWh7oMWhͿ3yacuteYjɣ FH4szligːǨʰƾ3Ÿɮ1DGA3-G

33

-LoPk3QOoyM3Aring4Śȉaeligouml 2MW3Ͷ 5ļ-ȒƭHGaRZn3szligːǨ42260ǨƦŚG3m3ƦŚ1ļ+LCOE485MWh118oMWhͿLJŚHampNjAEligHamp FIT1DFaRZnɯǨȐʿ3yacuteYjampFʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ10GǛ3Oacute4 EEG-ˠŚHG

Ugrave 3-6 lt8Iumlsectpsup325

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

85 (118) NA 135

(188) ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

79 (110)

79 (110) NA 84

(117)

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

5 (7) NA 46

(64)

rOtildemiddot

BMU Leitszenarion 2009 ndash Bundesministerium fuumlr Umwelt Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit Langfristszenarien und Strategien fuumlr den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland ndash Leitszenario 2009 (2009)

Destatis Statistisches Bundesamt wwwdestatisde (last access December 2009) ĎȲ24 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAG ĎȲ25 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

35

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 32 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122007 (2008)

Dewi Magazin - Deutsches Windenergie-Institut DEWI Magazin No 34 Wind Energy Use in Germany ndash Status 31122008 (2009)

Deutsche WindGuard Deutsche WindGuard GmbH on behalf o Zentrum fuumlr Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Wuumlrttemberg (ZSW) Vorbereitung und Begleitung bei der Erstellung eines Erfahrungsberichtes gemaumlszlig sect 20 EEG (2008)

EEG 2004 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich (2004)

EEG 2009 - Deutscher Bundestag Gesetz zur Neuregelung des Rechts der Erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich und zur Aumlnderung damit zusammenhaumlngender Vorschriften (2008)

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

36

Aring 4Auml JN6

41 JN6uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

411 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬʹş42000ƀ3 447 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 2121 MW1ŀdivide3( 228 MWȳͶoumlɯ3ş0)GͶoumlɯ1DGƀ3ɯouml42000ƀ3 08 TWhE 2008ƀ3 43 TWh1ŀdivideGǞ2008ƀ3Uh3ʱȸouml4 119 TWh-)ampͶoumlɯ3ʁǴɶȔ42008ƀE 2012ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 2000 MWdivideG-G3ɶȔ3ƭ1DFˬʹȽgtG4ƈˬ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ʱş4ʢ 4000 MW10G2009ƀ14950 MW3ȳͶoumlɯ3THORNǸŐHGȳͶoumlɯ3ɶȔOacute42020 ƀ=-1ˬʹşK 6000 MW 1G-Graquo EU 3aumlɣė˃SrYƿplusmn3ʻyacuteKɄGamp34 2020ƀ=-3ɶȔOacute45178 MW-G x 4-1 D7Ugrave 4-1 4-2 4D7ȳͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71ěƀƄ3

ʁǴɱD7ǴɱɶȔOacute3currenɂ-Gszlig3şmg4ěƀǶ3mg-Gɏ1ɫƧ-GU

h4ǠœͶ3ˬOtildeǭǝ14ɶȔOacuteKŚ0

x 4-1 JN6uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 and Rijksoverheid 2010

2000ƀ3ƀŨTHORNş4ĝƀǶ3ʦʏˬOtildeşĝ ş1ˬŚHampUgrave 4-21ʆȜģƀŨTHORNş4

ǑĐampͶoumlɯaRZn3ȜģˬOtildeşKĠL-GUgrave 4-2 1ʆamp2009 ƀE 2012 ƀ=- 2012ƀE 2020ƀ=-3ěǴ3ȜģƀŨTHORNş4ě3Ǵ3ſĹƀŨTHORNşKʆGsup23˘1ʆˬOtildeş4UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ1ļ+ˬOtildeş3currenɂ-GRijksoverheid 2010Ϳ

37

Ugrave 4-1 JN6IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0447 0485 0672 0905 1075 1224 1453 1641 1921 2727 6000

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0108 0228 0228 5178

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010 andRijksoverheid 2010

Ugrave 4-2 JN6regwoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

0409 0038 0038 0187 0233 0170 0149 0229 0188 0280 0202 0409

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0108 0 0 0 0619

ǛΆStatstics Netherlands 2010Rijksoverheid 2010

412 s_CcedilN3N9A

2008 ƀ1ǝamp0 FIT ĽŌ˩ɩ-G SDE ˮȲ 7ŨTHORNHamp3 SDE bX3-Ͷoumlɯ3ś3ɯ]bn1˟ĜotildeŀĕEgraveȉoumlčEgraveȉ1divideǓƱJHGE1aumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗93Ʒ

1fynʌiacuteUacuteLjʹKɥGjnSDEotildeŀĕEgraveȉ3Ȃʩgtatilde-ȏ˪HG

42 JN6VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-Uh3deg˘ɱ0D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZnK˷ǥG

421 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh4 2003ƀ1szligːǨ|b-ͶoumlɯaRZnKǓǎG FITiacuteƄKŨTHORNamp2006ƀ=-4

szligːǨ 18000 Ǩ=-3aRZn1ťǰ- 10 ƀ FIT NjAEligHamp2008 ƀE3 FIT 1DGǓǎ4szligːǨ 2200 Ǩsup23aRZn1ť˖JHG10)ampſĹszligːǨ4ƀʢ2000Ǩ-$3ˊɱ0ʜı4ƀ 16002800Ǩ-G Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4FITǓǎ3˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZnKʆGĎȲ263

aRZn-4$3Pq`NlOz3ņĄǕɱ1ś˖ė˃0]bn3|KˬŚGdeg˘ɱ0

34 15 MW3ũˠȕQOoyM-ͶoumlɯaRZn3ņĄ 23 MW3ͶgɷƑ 90 mtz 60Έ80 mͿKAuml)G3ĸĻ-4iacuteˬEHFHE3ĸĻ-4tz 4060 m3 450800 kWͶˊɱ-G

(b) ccedil-1 aRZn3deg˘ɱ0Ʒ]bn4 1000kW1390okWͿE 1600kW2224okWͿ

=-Fˊ1Ʒ]bnszligːǨAŅ0)G

ˮȲ 7 SDE (stimulering duurzame energie) UhǕƃ3aumlɣė˃SrYD7ɖAtildeʬ1GǓǎbX ĎȲ26 đɔaRZn134Ƿccedilǿ-ɥampđɔb13KƿA3-401ȲƧ

38

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3atildeˮ4ɯouml1D)ŃuumlGA3 9Έ12 kWh13Έ17 okWhͿż4ɥ

ŐE 5ƀ3^wbŋʢ1DGͿˬOtildeş1D)ŃuumlGA3 25kW35okWͿĸdegʡʭʡ]bnKĠͿ-GƔʿ3Oacute4aRZn1D)˒ɮ0Gś3ʰƾ4ƀ 23otildeĜ-ŀdivideGƦŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZnɯbrvbarȐʿ3ƷKēǧampƀ|b3Ouml 80-˺GaR

ZnKɥG˚ugrave3NjAEligʿ-GͿǕƃ4ˇŹǷɞ 15D7Oumlɞ 6ͼKȜƦŚGoumlmiddotʇ4ub`n1ļ+˺K˖)GȰlaquoʌ4 255ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A 0ĔTHORNɅ4Yacuteəźľ-3Ǵŋʢ1DGoumlł-FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ1D)yacuteYj

K)Gyumlƽɱ0dividePdlOzfynSrYƷotildeƊ1D)NjAEligHG

3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4˹ʌė˃0ĔTHORNɅKƾamp0ɯbrvbarȐʿKĠ==0brvbarȐiquest1ɥHF1

43iacuteƄ1DFƯƖʌ 421ťeumlɲKƖGɯbrvbarȐʿAG

(f) Q54Q1 -ɥampmg4Uh3 FIT otildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3˩ʙ-ɥampđɔaRZn3agrave˘mg-

G (Lensink et al 2009 Cleijne et al 2010)

422 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para Uh3ȳͶoumlaRZn-4ƈˬ˴ėKƖǰņ 50 m2ˠȕ3QOoyMKƈˬG-

Gƕ)deg˘ɱ0ȳaRZn3ˬOtildeş4 100Έ300 MW-Fʡʭ1NjAEligHGȜģɯouml4szligːǨ 3300Έ4000ǨɸƎ-G2008ƀ1 Prinses AmaliaQOoyMřƭamp1ʆmg14$3]bnȒ4ƛAĠ=H0

(b) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn4 2500Έ3500kW3475Έ4865okWͿ-G2008ƀ1řƭampaRZn4$

3ǘƀntilde1Famp˴ė3iacuteǼacute3ampȣɱũĺ3 V90ĺ 2 MWͶKɥG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ɥbrvbarȐʿ3ɥśʷ3Ū01DFʰƾ14ņ0ʄśƟœķGƀʰƾ4 90

kW125okWͿLJŚHG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 3m-4aRZn|b3˺ȒKɥF$3Ouml3otildeĜ4 50-GPrinces

AmaliaQOoyM3˺4aRZnȢ1˖)GWACC3ƦŚOacute4ʬ˺Ǚ]bn3Ƿ]bn3ordmOacute-H4 NuonShellƯDzG OWEZecirc3Ǡœ3ȳQOoyM1ɥEHampOacute-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A Ǡœ3QOoyM4Ǣ MEP˩ɩ1ļ+˚ugraveKĖF97MWh135oMWhͿ3ijŚ

FITĽŌKƖampfynPdlOz3˚ugraveɥHG

(f) Q54Q1 3mg4Ľɯ˘$3reg3agraveɱ1eumlɥ-GƥĽ1ļ+A3-ƥĽ1ŸɮGľĜ4ʆHamp

ƥĽ1ļ+m[-˚)G

39

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX sup23˘1ěƀ1ƦŚampD7ȳͶoumlɯ3OacuteKʆ2007ƀ3aRZn]bn4 2008ƀǨ

ɏ3n1G-ʆGUgrave 4-5 3ouml3źľEgraveȉ14ĕƊ]bnʬ˺Ǚ]bnǴŋʢ3otildeƊɞĠ=HG

Ugrave 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 1 15 120 NA Ͷļǘ ļ 1 5 60 NA ɯ szligːǨ 2000 2200 3350 NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 15 NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1120 (1557) 1325 (1842) 3315 (4608) NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 40 (56) 24 (33) 92 (128) NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) NA NA NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

Ugrave 4-4 JN6uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 5 5 5 NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 15 15 12 NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 50 NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 50 NA WACC ͼ 60 60 79 NA

Ǵ ƀ 10 15 10 NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 255 255 255 NA

FXn $US 139 139 139 NA

Ugrave 4-5 JN6uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (81) 56 (78) 59 (82) NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 663 (922) 28 (39) 97 (135) NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ 37 20 44 NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 10 15 10 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA NA NA

43 JN6uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

Uh3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ƛ˞0˴ėKƖG3ampogP0)

G

40

431 JN6uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 4-2 JN6rmicroQ1plusmnecircxpsup327

(b) BL0+dj Uh3Ͷ3ːɞ4ʢ 25-FszligːǨ 2200 ǨͿđɔb3 30DFAfrac12FIT 1DG

˚ugrave4szligːǨ 2200 ǨKGG4 SDE ˠiacute3˳ʧKʾƬ$HDFAfrac12ˬŚHGͿamp2200ǨDFAŅɯGamp3PdlOz4ŚHGE1˞0˞į4B4FͶȯ-G

432 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) ccedil-1 Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4Đ3ĪͲ1EcircGė˃ƟGszligːǨ 2200Ǩsup2KɯGPdl

Oz4ŚHGͶ3ˬ˩$HHBBɮ0)Fƕ)EgraveȉŘ0Gė˃Ɵ4ǃ-0

Aring5ĝ ɯȗKAuml)AgzoũľĜƷ]bnfrac12szligːǨŀdivideG

(b) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ0)Gį4ĸdeg3-Fƀʢ 10kW15okWͿ-G

(c) ccedilntildeacirciacute-113T-1 đɔbȣGUh3Ͷoumlɯ4Ȱlaquoʌȣɱfrac12 (255ͼ) eumlɏAGǑĐ]bn

4ʾƬ0

433 s_F(=2E

Uh3ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ43ʍ͵3PdlOziacuteƄ3ơƣKĖG-G$30A34 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ-2007 ƀ=-1HK˞ȨampaRZn1ťMEP ˮȲ 81DF 10 ƀijŚotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligH2008 ƀsup21HK˞ȨampaRZn3ľĜ4SDE 1DF 15 ƀŃuumlotildeŀĕEgraveȉNjAEligHG3 FITiacuteƄ1divideaRZn3ľĜ4ǰņƷ]bn 600kW834okWͿ1ťƷ]bn3 443ʌdž3Ʒ˚ugrave (EIA) D7otildeƊɞ 13fynKeumlɥG

ĎȲ27 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ ˮȲ 8 MEP (Milieukwaliteit Elektriciteitsproductie) Uh3oumlɣɤ1GȰƓ

41

-G

x 4-3 JN6uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup328

434 aringmH7B

Uh3yacuteYj42007 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn1˧5Ugrave 4-6 đɔͿʢ ndash36 MWhndash50oMWhͿPpb3Oacute10)GH4Đ3MEP3 FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉiacuteƄ3ˬ˩3Ș1DGA3-˚ugraveͳ3ļɵ0)ampoumlEgraveȉK 2Έ3 MWh3Έ4 oMWhͿfrac12ƦŚamp1DGoumlEgraveȉ 6~8 MWh 1ǤG1HŪ0AoumlEgraveȉ4ͶoumlaRZn4ż1ͺoumlɱ0A310)ampƔʮiacuteƄ-G SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ1ļ+ 2008 ƀ1ŐHampaRZn143ȘĕFHyacuteYj4 ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿBBPpb3Oacute10)GěʍaRZn3ɯ]bn3Ž4ndash3 DFA4G1ņɏ1ȲƧG3ampndash3MWh4oMWhͿPpb3Oacute4eKņĮGA3-40 ȳͶoumlɯ3b3yacuteY4Ɗʯ 5 MWh7 oMWhͿ-)ampH4ɷDžƖampyacuteƥ

Ľ1ļ+A3-40Princes AmaliaQOoyM3Ȫʙ1İɣ amp4ǥE-G

44

Uh4ŧǽ1A 2020ƀ1AD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Dzdz0ɶȔOacuteKŚGɠķ3 SDE 3 FIT iacuteƄ4HKśɠGamp3ǰA˞0k-G43 Eacute3ccedilǿʫȁEUh3brvbarAring1GyacuteYj4ʹ˒-40JG ugraveKƖampɯouml4szligːǨ 2200Ǩ=-1iacuteHG3ǘOacute4Uh3Ͷȯ1ċampA3-G2200Ǩsup23ɯ1ťGPdlOz4ŚHFHAƷ]bnfrac123į-Gė˃ƟGʰƾ4ĸdeg3ampȣɱ

0)G

ĎȲ28 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

42

Ugrave 4-6 JN6Iumlsectpsup329

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

91 (126)

94 (131)

166 (231) NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

127 (177)

96 (133)

161 (224) NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash36 (-50)

ndash3 (-4)

5 (7) NA

rOtildemiddot

Cleijne JW SM Lensink and CJ Faasen (2010) SDE Wind op land met vollasturen en differentiatie [SDE wind onshore with full load hours and differentation] ECN-E--10-001 Petten January 2010

Lensink SM JW Cleijne M Mozaffarian AE Pfeiffer S L Luxembourg and GJ Stienstra (2009) Eindadvies basisbedragen 2010 [Final advice SDE premium base rates 2010] ECNKEMA ECN-E--09-058 Petten November 2009

Rijksoverheid (2010) Nationaal actieplan voor energie uit hernieuwbare bronnen Richtlijn 200928EG [National Renewable Energy Action Plan Directive 200928EG] Den Haag June 2010

Statistics Netherlands (2010) online databank httpstatlinecbsnl VoorburgHeerlen August 2010

ĎȲ29 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

43

Aring 5Auml 1CN

51 1CNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bP3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯŮ1G=ampɚŚ3 EU 3ɶȔ1ļ+ CO2ǃaeligethȿ3amp

1 2020 ƀ 2030 ƀ1ƦŚHGɶȔOacuteKʆE1ˠiacute3ȂʩgtK˷ǥGraquo$30Ȓƭ˞ʥK˟ɷordfȾoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3]bn3ƐKŪ0Gamp1ɠķ˖JHGͿ E1 2008ƀ1GbPźľ3deg˘ɱ0QOoyM3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) K˷ǥ$3sup3

ŚKregĴ1GͶoumlɯ3]bnȣG

511 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac12frac34laquo

2009ƀǶǨɏ-Ͷoumlɯ3ɯouml4 19149 MW1bP3oumlʡʭ1 3ɭɶ1ņ0Ʌ0)GbP3Ͷoumlɯɯ4 90ƀdegĄ51Ő=F2001ƀsup24ǝˠ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşƀſĹ-ʢ 1800MWdivideHampˠiacuteǔȜHamp 2004ƀ 2007ƀ14Ĵɟplusmn 4362004D7 6612006Ϳ3şņŽ1ŀdivideamp3ˠiacute3ǔȜ1DF$HKeumlɥampǝˠaRZn3ʑ(EumlHamp

Ͷoumlɯ1DGɯouml42009ƀ3bP3SrYʱ˞3ʢ 14KĈG x 5-14ŅĴȣ3ťƀ-G 2008ƀ=-1bP1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3H=-3ʦʏˬOtildeş

ƀŨTHORNşKʆG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3mg4ȚŵdivideɳĴ3SrY˖uuml˩ɩNREAPͿ1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)2020ƀ3currenɂ4SrY˞3 20Kaumlɣė˃SrY- EU3ɶȔƭ1ğampǘOacute-G

x 5-1 1CNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth

x 5-1 4bP-H=-1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşD7notƔˬʹHG˟=HGˬOtildeşKʆG=ampƀŨTHORNşKx 5-21ʆ2009ƀbPǕƃ4 2010ƀE 2012ƀ=-3ěƀ1ˬʹG MWşKiacuteGamp3otildeƎKŚG1amp=ampoumlũłǛ1GĽŌ3ƐKȿ Gamp3˩ɩKnotƔ3Ȱplusmn1ʩgtL-ɯ˘ampszlig3aumlɣė˃SrY]aRr`3

Ĝ˩ş 6000 MW4ʱoumlĕƊ3 25KĈH4ʪȽĊȗ-4ɚ1]bn-GͿ

44

bP1GȳͶoumlɯ30Ł4ņȍ0-F3ampȮų3ȦȻ 50m 10)Gƕ)ȳͶoumlɯ-4ͳ0ļʅ˞0F$3ampHE3aRZn3ś˖ė˃Ɵ4iacute

HGE1aacuteʡɏ-4ȺĀŇɓWbļĸ1ˬʹHG]uPo^PZWbgw3

ɯ1DG~nrjZœķGampNZdbşEHampA310)G

Ugrave 5-1 1CNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

16 22 34 49 62 85 100 116 151 167 23 35

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

Ugrave 5-2 1CNoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

16 06 12 15 13 23 15 16 35 16 15 14

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05

ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) and European Commission 2010

512 s_CcedilN3N9A

Ȱɱ1currenƦHGEacuteɲKĖGamp14ͶoumlɯaRZnKɚecirc3iacuteƄ131ccedil͵Gƛ˞G

ʟĴ3ȉ˴ŚiacuteƄĝȓͿH4ͶoumlɯaRZnʡʭ1UacuteYacuteDžʯ-GũłbrvbarȐʿAacuteocircouml

KĕE250E0Ϳamp=ampEgraveȉˠiacuteHGamp-GĴɟƿplusmn 6612007-˘ǥHampD1Ͷoumlɯ3ǓƱbX14ˠiacuteǛbXźľĎɡ3 2G

ˠiacuteǛbX4QOoyMƯDzʿƸampǴ1GͶoumlɯ3ʻyacuteɱ0ijŚĕƊ

Egraveȉ-Gx 5-23ǘOacuteͿ ǰʨɱ0Egraveȉ 1Ǩ3ɪEgraveȉoumlPdlOz1ļ+oumlčźľEgraveȉ3ʩgtĜJ-Ȫ=GI3źľĎɡ4ĽŌ13AĤ5HGƕ)ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿĖĕGǛ4

Egraveȉ1ŷęHG10F3Egraveȉż1frac12ľĜ4ǰfrac12Egraveȉsup2-H5ˬ

EHGx 5-34ˠiacuteǛ3đɔOacuteKʆG

x 5-2 Ucircgntilde1)QEAcirc ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

45

ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿ4ntildeǡźľ3ɯ˩ɩKNjaeligcurrenɂKɥ3˩ɩś3ɯouml3currenɂ˶ŸKȿE

D1GE1==0ĸĻ1ƈˬHampQOoyMɸuml1˚Ugrave-˶ŸKŪ0Gamp

1==0aRZn[ĀHG3`bl1DFN``bl3ȴɥ

ʬ˺ǙKǰĀG-$3]bn34ͶoumlɯbrvbarȐʿǓƱ)G2008 ƀ4ʢ 15 MWh205oMWhͿ-)amp ˫3Oacute4Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120071D)ȸʿEgraveȉƿǘ (CPI) 1ļ+ǭǝH2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝ

ɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp x 5-34Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073ǟ˖sup2Ɣ3 FITǛiacuteƄ3ŃuumlKʆampA3-G2007ƀĴɟƿplusmn 6612007

1DF CPI1Ȯ) FITǔ˨HG10F2012ƀ 12DZ 31ǡ=-4˚Ȝɞ 25|`bPn$3Ɣ4 50|`bPnŚEHamp2010ƀ14ǭǝHampOacutePpb10FntildeƀKĮ)ampH4 CPIe1)ampamp-G bP3ʡʭɥʿ-G Red Electrica de Espantildea (REE) 1DH5ˬ Otildeş3 94ijŚEgraveȉĕU`

1D)ɥHGampčoumlźľEgraveȉ3Ńuuml1ƐH0x 5-4Ϳ

x 5-3 ~BINcentIcircceyuml~[umlāntildeĀ ǛΆSpanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

x 5-4 dividejo~uumljfrac14divideethyuml2008Ā ǛΆ Spanish TSO (REE)

Ͷoumlɯ3ņccedil4čźľ-ɷDžłHGampĽ4Egraveȉ1ņŷęHŇɓWbEgraveȉȦouml

ɯ3ɛȯ0E71Ĵźľ1G CO2 Egraveȉ3Egraveȉ1ƐG3amp 2008 ƀ14ſǡEgraveȉ4 6443MWh8956oMWhͿ0F2007ƀ3 3935MWh5470oMWhͿK 64Į)ampH4ɠķ=-1˫HampEgraveȉ-ǰAͳ-G Ͷoumlɯ3źľĕƊEgraveȉKx 5-31oumlčEgraveȉKx 5-51ʆYacute1ampD1Ĵɟƿplusmn 66120073brvbar

Aring-43Egraveȉ4E=-3ʜıatilde1GſǡoumlčEgraveȉ1ļ+EgraveȉĽŌ3Ĝ˩Oacute-G

46

x 5-5 dividejBQK[umllcedilyuml2003Ą2009Ā ǛΆOMEL and Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

52 1CN 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

sup23-2008 ƀ1GbP3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKHKreg3đdivideĴ1GͶoumlɯɯ3ěʍmȣG

521 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

ɚecirciquestiacute13`blKeumlɥGamp14bP3QOoyM3ˠȕ 50 MWK40E0ˬ ʹampQOoyM3ſĹˠȕ4ʢ 25 MW-˩ ʙQOoyM3ˬOtildeşK 2007ƀA 2008ƀA 30MWsup3ŚG Ğɶ3ɥǨ4Śȉaeligouml-ƀ 1700ǨE 2350Ǩ=-==-G2008ƀ3szligĴſĹ4 2085

ǨͿ=ampaRZn3đɔOacute4 2007ƀ- 2200Ǩ2008ƀ- 2150Ǩ-)amp bP-ɥEHGszlig3ʪȽm-4aRZn3ɥǴ4 20ƀGraquoH4Q

OoyM3śʷ4E0Ϳ2007ƀ 2008ƀ14aRZn3Py^PZK 20ƀG

2008ƀ1ˬʹHampͶ3ſĹˠȕ4 1985 kW-2007ƀ3 1621 kWEJ1ŀdivideamp3m-ȏ˪G34 2000 kW3Ͷ0J(3QOoyM-4 2 MW3Ͷ 15ļͿ-G

x 5-6 2008THORNOacuteuumlegrave2bszlig ǛΆ Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE)

47

(b) ccedil-1 ƀ3Ʒʱͳ0)amp34Zb III D7 IV ˮȲ 93ņĺͶoumlɯ˙ʹˬʹHampE-

FƎeacuteEĶʡʭ93ʡBěʍʌcurrenɂHampJ-40 $H1AJEƀ4ĎǺǛ]bn3frac121DFͶ3]bnȿŪG=ampǕĊȗˠiacute3

Ńǭ1DFͶ3˞Afrac12ampQOoyM93Ʒʱͳ1ĈGͶ3]bn4ʢ 70Έ73ͼ-G3]bn4ĎǺǛ3Egraveȉɠķ3[jo]o1Ɇ ampƛ˞0ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵ1šDž1EcircG

2007ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn14Ʒ]bn4 1233kW1714okWͿ2008ƀ14 1250kW1738okWͿLJŚHG

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾAaeligoumlƶiacuteȒatildeoumlȸ3amp3oumlǛˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ˜Ɵŀamp1DFŀdivide

Gʰƾ4 2007ƀ 1910MWh2655oMWhͿ2008ƀ 1963MWh2729oMWhͿLJŚHG100ͼŃuumlͿHE3]bn4|3ŃuumlƟdegǯĦ3eumlɥė˃Ɵƛ˞HGɕʶƴ˗ʿBȗȋ˙ʹ)amp˞į1G Ͷoumlɯȗ3^Pc4ƼņGͶȯ3ǰAD^Pn4-1eumlɥHGampŚȉǨ4ȿŪ

G10G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ȞĘɱ1bP-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯKbPĴatilde3˖3oumlD7ŘŚampȰɱȂ

ʩgt1ļ+aRZn3yacuteiquestiacute1D)˺amp$H1AJEȵuumlƟKȘamp˺iacute

Ƅ3amp13 2ƀ-ɛȯŃĀAgraveE3ƺIgrave1DGIgrave˯ƛ˞10)G ˺]bn42007ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ1ˬŚHG2007ƀ2008

ƀAǷOuml3ȣɞ4 2ť 8-G2008ƀ14ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 10ͼOumleumlɲɞ 7ͼ-G

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A źľ93ł1DGĔTHORN42007ƀ1 394MWh548oMWhͿ2008ƀ1 644oMWh895o

MWhͿ-)amp3ĔTHORN1ť2007ƀ1 348MWh483oMWhͿ2008ƀ14 215MWh299oMWhͿ˰EgraveHamp FITotildeŀĕEgraveȉdivideHGFITǕʘǴ4(E3bA 20ƀ1ijŚHG

(f) Q54Q1 1ʆampmg4bPͶoumlɯąmiddot (AEE) D7 Intermoney śǟampʃʐ1ļ+A3-G

522 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para

bP3ȳͶoumlɯSN4 62SN1ccedilotildeHHE3SN-4ͶoumlɯˠiacuteHGHE3SN1ťTHORNǸ˖JHG10G3śɱPq`NizK5currenɂHGQOo

yM3ˠȕ4ʢ 1000 MW-G

(b) ccedil-1 mg0

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig mg0

ˮȲ 9 Zb III4sectʬ˵Ũɯȗ (DFIG) D7ccedilŚȉ3]ugKɥampͶZb IV4ĝǴɯȗD7y

Śȉ]ugE0GͶccedil͵HG3ccedil͵ǞȰ3˳ʧ4Aring5˫3ǚɝKđɔ3 ȚŵͶoumlSrYąmiddotǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddotˮͿΆͶoumlɯʡʭʡ Țŵ3ǰntildeʳ13 ǡǷͶoumlSrYŕmiddot ISBN 978-4-906826-00-1 2012ƀ 2DZ httpwwwjweaorjppublicationPoweringEuropeJPpdf

48

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 mg0

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A mg0

(f) Q54Q1 mg0

(g) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 5-25-54sup23 LCOEccedilǿ-ɥampm[3ntildeNjǼacuteKʆA3-G]bn3sup3Ś4szlig 2007

ƀ 2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZnK˘A3-2008ƀnǨ3-˘ʆG

Ugrave 5-3 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 30 30 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ 15 15 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ 2200 2150 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1233 (1714) 1250 (1738) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 191 (266) 196 (272) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 NA NA

Ugrave 5Ă4 1CNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ 9 10 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 6 7 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 20 20 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 80 80 NA NA Ǵ ƀ 15 15 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ 30 30 NA NA

FXn $ 139 139 NA NA

Ugrave 5-5 1CNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) 53 (74) 54 (75) NA NA

FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) 34 (47) 35 (49) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ 20 20 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ʌ|bͿ

ͼ 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ ƀ 20 20 NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 36 (51) 37 (52) NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

49

523 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc

x 5-7 1CNrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup330

(b) BL0+dj bP3ͶoumlɯaRZn4đɔbDFAˬOtildeeumlɥɞfrac12ͶȯbP3szligːǨ1Ɛ

GampbP3 LCOE4đɔb3 LCOEDFA 18MWh25oMWhͿ0)Gđɔb3ſĹːǨLJŚ 2680Ǩ-G31ťbP4 2150Ǩ0)G szligːǨ4bP3 LCOE đɔb3 LCOE 3Ÿɮ13ǰA˞0Ńǘ-GͶȯ1divide

ʰƾAđɔbKĮ)FH14ĸdegD7ĸĻBˇȬiquest˞ȨGeumlɲɞAĠ=HG LCOE33˷ǥ0Gʖ 33˞į4˺]bn-F3ͳ4aRZn3WACCD7ǰʨɱ

1ě3Ʒ1˞ȨHGƷĔɲɞ (ROI) KŀdivideG

(c) ccedil-1 bP3Ʒ]bn3ʱͳ4ʢ 1250kW1738okWͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 200

kW278 okWͿŘbP-4Ʒ]bnfrac12ampLCOE 4 10 MWh14 oMWhͿfrac120G ǑĐ]bn4QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘʨpoundamp3ɯˬOtilde3˥iquest]bnKĠampͳ-ʱƷ]

bn3ʢ 3ͼKĈG

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bP3brvbarAring1Gyacuteɛȯ1ˇŹǷeumlɲɞOumleumlɲɞ4đɔbDFA0)G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig bP-4ʰƾđɔbDFA0)GbP3ʰƾʱͳ14ʌĸdeg

ʚɡ]bnKĠamp3ŃuumlĠ=HGnotƔ3ʪethȿoumlˇŞȸǛ3ǤˬOtilde3ƴ˗ɱ

˜Ɵ3=F1DFʰƾAŀdivideG˟gt-G ſĹbP3ʰƾ4ʢ 196MWh272oMWhͿ-H4đɔbDFAʢ 7

MWh10oMWhͿ

ĎȲ30 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

50

524 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

Yacute1ampD1bP14 FIT iacuteƄͶoumlɯ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄͿźľiacuteƄźľEgraveȉͶoumlɯ3ĽŌͿ 23ǓƱiquestʡG2008ƀ14Ͷoumlɯ3ʢ 91ͼKźľiacuteƄ1DFłampH4ɯȐʿDFŅ3ĔTHORNKƖEHGamp-G x 5-8 4ĔTHORN3ŃǘȥǛͿͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOz3ŃǘbP1GźľiacuteƄ

3ĽŌͿKȣampA3-G

x 5Q-8 1CNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup331

525 aringmH7B

bP3mccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash3 MWhndash4 oMWhͿ-G3EſĹbP3ͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ4ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘ0E71PdlOzEaRZnɯ

3yacute˞acuteKɄamp-G3ăccedil0Xj`yKƖGJG

53 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 5Ă6 1CNuumljfrac14divideBL0+psup332

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

76 (106)

83 (115) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

87 (121)

86 (120) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash11 (ndash15)

ndash3 (ndash4) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2009) ldquoEoacutelica 09 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Julio 2009)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileANUARIO20COMPLETO5B15Dpdf

ĎȲ31 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ32 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

51

AEE Spanish Wind Energy Association (2008) ldquoEoacutelica 08 Todos los datos anaacutelisis y estadiacutesticas del sector eoacutelico (Junio 2008)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee- publicaAEE_anuario_ingles08pdf

AEE ndash Intermoney (2006) ldquoEstudio de costes del sector eoacutelico Realizado por Intermoney para AEE (2006)rdquo at httpwwwaeeolicaesuserfilesfileaee-publica060612-Gen-EolicaEsp- PRALpdf

Comisioacuten Nacional de la Energiacutea (CNE) wwwcnees

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

Red Eleacutectrica de Espantildea (REE) Spanish TSO wwwreees Royal Decree 6612007 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacionRD_661-2007-REpdf Royal Decree 4362004 httpwwwcneescnedoclegislacion(36)RD436_2004pdf Spanish Market Operator (OMEL) wwwomeles

52

Aring 6Auml 1$QN

61 1$QNuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bQRm3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙ0E71 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿK˷ǥG

611 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş42004ƀ1 474 MW)amp3 2008ƀǶ14 937 MW0)Gx 6-1ͿbQRmĆ3ȳQOoyM3ˬOtildeş4 2007ƀ14 110 MW-)amp=ampqN`N133Ƀ-3ɯAEHG2012ƀ 2020ƀ3Ͷoumlɯcurrenɂ4EUdivideɳĴ3ěĴaumlɣė˃SrY˖uuml˩ɩ (NREAP) 3mg1ļ+A3-G (European Commission 2010)

x 6-1 1$QNuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_Uacuteuacute

ǛΆVinkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 and European Commission 2010 Ugrave 6-14bQRm1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=amp

Ugrave 6-24ĐD7ŧǽ3ƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 6-1 1$QNIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

220 220 272 322 381 429 470 560 698 951 2065 4365

ȳ 10 20 23 23 23 23 23 23 133 133 150 182

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

53

Ugrave 6-2 1$QNoacute_eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

ndashndashndash 05 51 50 59 48 41 90 138 253 278 288

ȳ ndashndashndash 10 25 0 0 0 0 0 110 0 4 4

ǛΆVindkraft Statistik 2009 Vindkraft Statistik 2007 European Comission 2010

612 s_CcedilN3N9A

bQRm-4aumlɣė˃SrY1DGɯ3ǓǎʘĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ (TGC) KŨTHORNG$3ɶɱ42016ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 17 TWh1ŀB-G3ɶȔOacuteK2020ƀ=-1ė˃SrYɅ1DGɯK 25 TWh1GE1OacuteGampɠķ3iacuteƄ3ǔȜȏ˪HG=ampbQRmsQR3aacute`bl3Ȓʝ1ğampordfȾ˖J

HG 2008 ƀ=-4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ˖ɢĿĽŌ13AĤ5HGijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄ (FIT) Ͷoumlɯ

1ɥHamp3ɢĿĽŌ134ȳͶoumlɯ14 2009ƀ=-eumlɥė˃-)amp=amp 2003ƀ1vPjnaRZn3Ǔǎ˩ɩŐHampȳͶoumlɯţaringȥNtildeȎȀĸŻ-3Ͷoumlɯ)

ampˉģȻ˟0HampaRZn12008 ƀE 2012 ƀ=-3Ǵ1 3710 5160 oͿ3currenʙotildeƎEHG

2006 ƀʈǕƃ3ɢĿƐccedilǿ1Gˠiuml0E71ǝˠͶoumlɯaRZn3˴ėdbʞɬĀH25 MW=-3QOoyM4ˇȬiquest1ŭaeligH5ˬʹ-G0)amp ͶɅ3eumlɥ1GƥĽKƁcedilGampbQRmǕƃ3Ũ3Ͷoumlɯ3eumlɥ1GĴatilder

jnZĎȲ33ȒʝHamp3rjnZ1DFͶoumlɯ3˩ɩʘŚD7˴ŚʋuacuteOslashoumlbrvbarȐ3ɯ

Ůʰƾʚɡ1Gʀ˾KȻbQRm3ͶoumlɯɯaRZnKEumlH

G E1Ͷoumlɯ3]mOrgKɥɯbrvbarȐʿEcircƎŬ0E71ĸUcircĸĻĴ3ě|1

GEcircʿ3ordfȵEumlKIJ)G

62 1$QNVUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

621 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bQRm-43aRZn3szligːǨ4 2600Έ3050 ǨĽġHGżbQR

m3Ͷoumlɯj1ʆHGszligːǨ4ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿNjaeligampǘŒKĮ)

G3amp˩ʙ-4bQRm3aRZn3ǰʨɱ0ͶoumlɯǨKĽġHampʜı3 2600ǨͿG

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3aRZn42008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZn3]bnD7ɯoumlēǧ

Hampdeg˘ɱaRZnŚʻHamp Ƿ]bn4ampF 12171915kW1692Έ2662okWͿ=-Fmccedilǿ-4 1591kW2212okWͿsup3Śamp

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ3ijŚccedil4ſĹ 0004 kW0006 okWͿŃuumlccedil4ʢ 11 MWh15 o

ĎȲ33 httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse đɔ

54

MWhͿLJŚG3Ńuuml4 7 MWh10 oMWhͿE 24 MWh33 oMWhͿ=-FvPjnaRZn1Gʰƾ4ż1ŃuumlņɯbrvbarȐʿ1D)˒

ɮ0)G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 Ugrave 6-51ʆD1mccedilǿ-4OumleumlőKƷŞżĽġG 5˟L-GͶoumlɯ1Ʒ

GparaȐ3middot˩Ľġ3ccedilǿ-420ͼƍOuml]bnʆHGbQRm3paraȐccedilǿEŨaeligampƛ˞0ˇŹǷeumlɲɞʫ7macrOumleumlőɞK 5LJŚampľĜͶoumlɯ3]bnKũ˰EgraveG10F20

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A ͶoumlɯaRZn4Ǵŋʢ1DGźľ93oumlłŨTHORNHGĕƊė˃0[˯ǮiacuteƄ

23ĔTHORN3ȵH1D)KƖG(E3ĔTHORNɅAʄśƟż12008ƀ=-FITĽŌiacuteƄAɥHFͶoumlɯaRZn4 2 MWh3 oMWhͿŪͳ3ĽŌKĖamp

(f) Q54Q1 LCOE˩ʙ3mg4˫3D0ɥǓǎ˩ɩ3ʫȁD7Ĵatilde3_3amp1bQRmSrY

Ŭ=ampmg)amp˜ǘ3ƥĽɅ1ļ+A3-GǑĐ]bn4 Svensk Vindenergi (2009) 3mgKAumlɥampbQRm3Ͷoumlɯ˩ɩ1Gʭ˩Oacute4bQRmSrYŬȢƀɯ˘

GĽġǮ ES20103 ldquoVindkraft statistic 2009 (Wind power statistics 2009)rdquoD7 Vindkraft Statistik 20081ļ+G2008 ƀ3ͶoumlɯǨ4ouml˯ǮiacuteƄ3mgKAumlɥGE1Ͷoumlɯ3ɯȐbrvbarʿEʆmg3NjAEligKĖamp=ampEcircGotildeƊɞKǥE1Gampmiddot˩ǛKđɔampE14˚Ǜ O2 0E71 AriseȇƉźľ3ŨTHORN1GbrvbarȐaeligɘəEŦŞ3Ƨ˟KƊɥamp

622 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

2008ƀǨɏ-ŨTHORNHampbQRmǰņ3ȳaRZn4Lillgrunden3 11 MW3aRZn-)amp3aRZn4 Vattenfall 2004ƀ1Ɗʮ2007ƀ1ʡʭ1ʡHampLillgrundenaRZn-4 Siemens3 23 MWͶ MKII 48ļAumlɥHG$3( 13ļ4 2004ƀsup2ntilde1ʡʭ1ʡHGbQRm3ǰǝaRZn4 3 MW3Ͷ 10ļKOtildeamp GaumlsslingegrundaRZn-H4 VaumlnernɃ3Ģ 7Έ13m1ļʅKˬʹampqN`N133aRZn-G

Ugrave 6-3 LillgrundenBL0+Z

Lillgrundenmg Ά ļɆȷDF 115 m gɷƑΆ 924 m ʱʏΆ 6734 m2 iacuteƗǞȰΆ ėŃxjiD7ėŃƄ gƄΆ 6Έ16 rpm ǰņYacuteʔƄΆ 280 kmh gΆ 60 t pdΆ 82 t gΆ 110 t LJŚƀɯoumlΆ 6875500 kWh ˬOtildeeumlɥɞΆ 35ͼ ſĹͶΆ 85 ms

55

Ugrave 6-4 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 235 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 41 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 2600 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1591 (2212) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 0004 (0006) NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 11 (15) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 16 (222) NA NA $3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 6-5 1$QNuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 12 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 87 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 13 NA NA WACC ͼ ndashndashndash 47 NA NA

Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 28 NA NA

FXn SEKeuro ndashndashndash 942 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

Ugrave 6-6 1$QNuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 50 (70) NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 25 (35) NA NA ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 2 (3) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 1 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 0 NA NA

623 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecirc

x 6-2 1ʆD1bQRm3 LCOE 4đɔbDFʢ 1 MWh1 oMWhͿfrac120)G

56

x 6-2 1$QNuumljfrac14divide-1psup334

(a) BL0+dj bQRm3szligːǨ4đɔbDFAH4ͶoumlɯaRZn1eumlɥ-Gĵĸʏ

^[ampreg3Țŵ˽ĴDFAņampƎɓ3-G

(b) ccedil-1 bQRm3Ʒ4oumlɯaRZnTGC `bl2001 ƀEŨTHORNͿ0E71Ǡœ3 NordPool

ʡʭ1995ƀEoumlĕƊͿ3amp1đɔbDFABB0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig đɔbbQRm3ʰƾ3Ÿɮ4ǰũ3A3-H4^1DGė˃Ɵʹ˒

-40

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bQRm3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12H4bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ93Ʒ1

GbZ3|frac12E-FbQRm3Ͷoumlɯɯ1GʪEƎɓ3˧G

x 6-3 1$QNuumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup335

ĎȲ34 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

57

624 s_CcedilN3N9A

ĔTHORN4 1Ϳoumlł1DGĔTHORN2Ϳ[˯Ǯł1DGĔTHORN3ͿFITE3Ūͳ3ĔTHORN2009ƀ1ƆțͿ3 3-ȒƭHG ĔTHORN4źľE33ȵH-GampʄśƟņ0b-4ȥǛ4 50 MWh

70 oMWhͿ-ŘŚG˟0H[˯ǮEgraveȉ4ʢ 25 MWh35 oMWhͿ)amp2009ƀ1OacuteHamp

625 aringmH7B ſĹɱ0aRZn14ouml3źľEgraveȉ TGCiacuteƄ3˚UgraveKʩgtĜJG-ăccedil1]bnK

-GD-G

Ugrave 6-7 1$QNIumlsectpsup336

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 67

(93) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 75

(104) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash8

(ndash11) NA NA

63 1$QNuumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ugrave 6-7 1ʆampD1bQRm3ͶoumlɯaRZn4ˇŹǷ]bnD7Ouml]bnfrac12amp1ǷdivideſĹĎEgrave (WACC) ȣɱfrac120)GD-GaRZn3AEligʬ4Ouml1DGǷ˺1DGA3-macr3˺Ǵ4 20ƀ-G$HDFAmacrǴʁľĜA$EG˕Ǵ3ʨpoundǨ1ʸFHG bQRm3Ͷoumlɯ4ȞĘ=ampƀƞ1ƭG2020 ƀ=-1aumlɣė˃SrY

ɅK 25 TWh1GɶȔKƭGamp14ͶoumlɯKE1ɯŮƛ˞G

rOtildemiddot

Dagens Industri wwwdise 2010-03-16 Storm kring vindkraftsbolag

European Commission National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the European Member States June 2010 (European Commission 2010) at httpeceuropaeuenergyrenewablestransparency_platformaction_plan_enhtm

E24 wwwe24se 2010-03-16 Vindkraftsbolagen anklagas foumlr glaumldjekalkyler Nationellt naumltverk foumlr vindbruk (national network for winduse) httpwwwnatverketforvindbrukse

Svensk Vindenergi 2009 Vindkraftverk ndash kartlaumlggning av aktiviteter och kostnader vid nedmontering aringterstaumlllande av plats och aringtervinning

Vinkraftstatistik 2009 ES 20103 2010 Swedish Energy Agency available at

ĎȲ35 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ36 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

58

httpwwwenergimyndighetenseGlobalPressPressmeddelandenVindkraftsstatistik202009p df

Vindkraftstatistik 2007 ES 20082 2008 Swedish Energy Agency available at httpwwwenergimyndighetenseen

59

Aring 7Auml 11

71 11uumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4bPb3D7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn]bn3ɚƙacirciquestɱ14 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgraveLCOEͿ3mĀ1ɥampsup3Ś1GbPb4atildeĴ-GampȳaRZn4œķ0ǪˤIgrave3ampɃȭĸĻ4ɠķͶoumlɯ^PnEńHG

711 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş41996ƀ3 2 MWE 2008ƀǶ3 14 MW1ŀdivideampͶoumlɯ1DGƀɯouml4 2000ƀ3 18 GWhE 2008ƀ3 2020 GWh1ŀdivideampH1ť 2008ƀ3ʱ˞ouml4 587 TWh-Gɠķ˩ɩEHGaRZn1D)2012ƀ14 65 MW3ɯė˃10GLJŚHGǕƃ3SrYǕʘ-4 2030ƀ1 44 MWKɯGɶȔKljG

x 7-1 11uumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

Ugrave 7-14bPb1GĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGͶoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 7-24ĐD7notƔcurrenƦHGƀdivideşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-1 11IacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (MW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012

currenƦ 2020currenƦ

28 28 451 455 456 866 116 116 116 136 176 65 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

60

Ugrave 7-2 11oacute_ethyumlMWĀ

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

28 00 170 065 001 350 290 002 000 200 400 150 400

ǛΆwind-datach and Federal Office of Energy

712 s_CcedilN3N9A

bPb-4 2008 ƀ1oPkĝȓ3ijŚEgraveȉĕiacuteƄFITͿKŨTHORNamp3`bl4LJŚHG LCOEKamp3A3-GFIT 1Ġ=HG34oumlźľEgraveȉ[ouml3Oacute-GͶoumlɯ14bPb3 FIT4 110MWh153oMWhͿΈ130MWh181oMWhͿ1ijŚHG

72 11VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

721 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥampđɔaRZn42 MW3Ͷ 6ļKOtildeamp Juraű˅Ȕ 1000Έ1200 mͿ3

QOoyM-GbPb1GͶoumlaRZn3L2 MW3ͶgɷƑ 82 mtzʢ 8 0mͿKɥG3ĸĻ-4NZdbiacuteHGamp1gɷƑg31ˬEHFŚȉaeligouml 800Έ1000 kWtz 40~60 m3ͶKeumlɥG

(b) ccedil-1 bPb1Gdeg˘ɱ0aRZn3ě3Ʒ]bn4ampF 1790 kW2488 kWͿ-G

Țŵ1GͶ93Ʒ]bn3otildeĜ4ſĹʢ 76bPb-4 55~6810)G34bPb3Ͷoumlɯ^Pn93NZdbďiacuteHGamp=ampbPb-4laquoacuteż1amp-G

3ampɯƯ3ʪȣɱ0)G

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʰƾ14bPb-4śʷŪ0ampEWEA agrave˘ampʰƾ3ȣ1ļ+bPb3ʰƾK 31MWh43oMWhͿsup3Śamp

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 sup23˘4bPb3ĎEgrave˩ʙ1ɥamp˺]bnKʆG

Ugrave 7-3 ccedilntildeacirciacute-1YacuteEgrave

źľeuml 5 ƛ˞0Ƿeumlɲɞ 7

Ƿ3otildeĜ 30 ˀɥƀǘ 20ƀ ȿEgraveUgraveČǴ 20ƀ

Py 0 Ǵ 20ƀ

ȰlaquoʌɞOECDͿ 21

61

(e) s_CcedilN3N9A bPb14aumlɣė˃SrYɯ3brvbarȐeumlɥ-Gɜʑ3ĔTHORN`bl 2ʍ͵G 64 FIT `bl-H4sup23]bn˩ʙ3ļɵ0GA3-3ȽKĖEHG34Ȧoumlɯ

10 MWsup2atildeͿňɖɯͶoumlɯuPUb0E71uPUbƆǺ-Gaumlɣė˃SrYɅ[vͿ1DGɯ1ɥė˃03Ǜ`bl4ɯǞƉaeligoumlecirc1đɔˬOtilde1ļ+acirciquest

ɱ1ˠŚHěƴ˗3 LCOEK-Gshyʩgt10)GȽ4ɯǞƉ1D) 20Έ25ƀ3Ǵ1ɥHGcurrenƦHGƴ˗db0E71HE3ƴ˗3źľĀEuml1DFHE3Ǜ`bl

-4ͳ3Ƞɱfrac12currenƦHGǛ3ȿͳɥHG34ɰampɯˬOtilde3gt-FHE3ˬ

Otilde4ȽǴK ŚampǛ`bl1DFȽKĖGɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKLľĜ$HĝǨ1oumlźľ-[oumlKłG4-00G ʖ 2 3ĔTHORN`bl4[oumlźľ-GɯbrvbarȐʿ FIT `blKeumlɥ-0ľĜ4źľ-

oumlKłG10Gż$3ĔTHORN4ɯbrvbarȐʿoumlmiddotʇ3ordfȾ1D)ȪŚHGoumlĽŌK

ouml3źľEgraveȉ1divideampͳ-G

(f) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeşmg4 Swiss Wind Energy Association ldquoSuisse Eolerdquo1DGA3-GƷ]bn

ʰƾ3mg4 2008ƀ1˩ɩHampͶoumlɯaRZn˺Ȇ1DGA3-G˺]bn4 FIT˩ʙD7 Swiss Federal Office of Energy3mTHORNouml3sup3Ś1ļ+A3-G Ugrave 7-47-64bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3 LCOELJŚ1ɥampmĀ1Gsup3ŚKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 7-4 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW ndashndashndash 2 NA NA Ͷļǘ ļ ndashndashndash 6 NA NA ɯ szligːǨ ndashndashndash 1750 NA NA

ˀɥƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash 1790 (2488) NA NA

ʰƾijŚͿ eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA ʰƾŃuumlͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 31 (43) NA NA

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

Ugrave 7-5 11uumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 7 NA NA

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 5 NA NA Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 30 NA NA

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ ndashndashndash 70 NA NA Ǵ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA Ȱlaquoʌɞ ͼ ndashndashndash 21 NA NA

FXn CHFeuro ndashndashndash 067 NA NA FXn $USeuro ndashndashndash 139 NA NA

62

Ugrave 7-6 11uumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ oumlźľEgraveȉ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľEgraveȉ˯ǥ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125 (174) NA NA FITǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml|bͿ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ ndashndashndash 20 NA NA ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash NA NA źľ˯Ǯ euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash Ńuuml NA NA

ɯȐʿTHORNȐʿ-ordfȾ

73 11uumljfrac14divideBL0+ypoundpara

bPb3Ͷoumlɯ3ɯ]bn4ʢ 120MWh167oMWhͿ-đɔbDFA 58MWh81oMWhͿ0)G

731 -1plusmnecirc

x 7-2 11uumljfrac14divide-1rmicroQ1plusmnecircpsup337

(a) BL0+igraveeacuteOgrave bPb-ɯHampouml4đɔbDFA˒Ū00)GH4ͶoumlɯʋƄ-Gamp

-GszligːǨ 1750ǨͿ

ĎȲ37 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringěĴ LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0G

ľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

63

(b) ccedil-1 bPb3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAH4Ņ3^Pn93NZdbİ

˜-GD7laquoacuteamp-GbPb3aRZn4ũˠȕ03-ņˠȕ0aRZ

nȣͶTHORNǨ3otildeƊɞfrac120)G

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig bPb3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAɯƯ-4ɼȧcentȵĪͲ10)F$3ampʰƾʚɡ

]bn0)GbPb-4ʰƾ1Gśʷ4L0

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 bPb3˺]bn4đɔbDFAfrac12ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ4 7HGraquoL3a

RZn4yacute3ɡɦ1DFƷ0oumlmiddotʇ˺Goumlmiddotʇ4[ouml3˞3

=F1ƚKŠG

732 s_F(=2E

bPb1GͶoumlɯ3 FIT4 110~130MWh153Έ181oMWhͿ-mĀccedilǿ-4 125MWh174oMWhͿKɥGĔTHORN3DF˳˷ǥ4 721ugrave(e) Kđɔ3|-4$Hsup2ń3yacuteǓǎ`bl40

x 7-3 11uumljfrac14divides_CcedilN3N9Apsup338

733 aringmH7B bPb-4ǕʘPdlOz1DF LCOE K)Gx 7-3 EbPb3deg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaR

Zn-4 FIT1DF LCOEK˚)GJG

ĎȲ38 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG

64

73

Ugrave 7-7 11uumljBL0+psup339

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 120

(167) NA NA

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash 125

(174) NA NA

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh) ndashndashndash ndash5

(ndash7) NA NA

rOtildemiddot

Die Website fuumlr Windenergie-Daten der Schweiz Accessed at wwwwind-datach

Erlaumluternder Bericht zur Revision der Anhaumlnge EnV Bundesamt fuumlr Energie 2102009

Swiss Energy Act of June 26 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_0html

Swiss Energy Ordinance of December 7 1998 httpwwwadminchchdsrc730_01html

ĎȲ39 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

65

Aring 8Auml Ecircz

81 Ecirczuumljfrac14dividecopyUacute

Ƿʒ-4ʟĴ1GD7ȳͶoumlɯaRZn1$3]bn3ɚƙɚ1 2008ƀ3Ͷoumlɯƴ˗3ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave (LCOE) 3mĀ1ɥampsup3ŚK˷ǥGȳͶoumlɯ14ʟĴ-4=$3ɯ1Gśʷ ampʞć1˦HG3gtG=ampAring 1 Auml1ʆampđɔbȣamp2008ƀ3ʟĴ3]bnccedilǿʫȁK˷ǥG

811 THORN^ethfrac14dividedividejethAacutecurrenfrac34laquo

ʟĴ1GʦʏˬOtildeş42000ƀ3ʢ 25 GWE 2008ƀǶ3 25 GW1ŀdivideampx 8-1Ϳ2005ƀsup2ěƀƄ3ƀˬOtildeş4˫Kǭǝʯ2008ƀ14ǝamp1 85 GWdivideHampĎȲ402008ƀ14ǝˠɯşszligiquest3 42KͶoumlɯĈGſĹɱ0ƀ-4Ͷoumlɯ3ʦʏˬOtildeş1DFʟĴ3ʱȸouml3ʢ 19ͼKAEligʬ-GHG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)2008ƀ3ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4szlig3ͶoumlɯƯ1GǘOacute-GȳͶoumlɯaRZnA˩ɩHFɠķ4$3˴ėĕƖ

Ƞ1G x 8-1 4ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3Đ3ʦʏˬOtildeşD7ƀŨTHORNş0E71 2012 ƀ3currenɂD7 2030 ƀ

3ɉķɱ`pUKʆG

x 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^ethoacute_eth ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

ʟĴ4ǥʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3ɶȔOacuteKˬŚ0ƕ)x 8-1 4Ͷoumlɯ3ĴŞɶȔOacute3degJF3mgɏKʆampA3-GSrYƥĽŬ (EIA) 3ʁǴcurrenɂ1DH52012 ƀ1ǝamp1ʢ 10 GW divideHGampˬOtildeş4 2008ƀDFAGʋƄŀdivideG˟gt-G (EIA 2009)ĎȲ41Ǵcurrenɂ1Gƀ3ʃʐ-

ĎȲ40 ś3IʟĴ-4 2009ƀA3timesğʯFǝamp1divideHampͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4 10 GWƍ10

(AWEA2010)ǷĽġǮ-ȏ˪ampͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ŅĴȣ3ťHamp 2008ƀ1GA3-G ĎȲ41 Yacute1ampD12009ƀ1ɯHampͶoumlɯ3ˬʹş4 10 GWƍ10 (AWEA 2010)

66

4ɉķɱ0Ͷoumlɯ`pU3ccedilǿ1ļ+2030ƀ=-1ʟĴ-˟=HGouml˞3 20KͶoumlɯ-Ʉamp-GG (DOE 2008)3ʃʐ3LJŚ1DH520Pbn1Gamp14Ͷoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş 305 GWƛ˞10GD7ȳͶoumlɯ3Ĝ˩Ϳ=amp3ʃʐ-42018ƀ=-1ƀˬOtildeşʢ 16 GW1ŀdivideGLJŚG Ugrave 8-1 4ʟĴ1GĐD7notƔcurrenɂHGʦʏˬOtildeşKʆampA3-G=ampUgrave 8-2 4Đ

D7notƔcurrenɂHGƀŨTHORNşKʆampA3-G

Ugrave 8-1 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideIacuteAtildeTHORN^eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

25 26 43 47 64 68 92 117 169 255 595 251

ȳ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

Ugrave 8-2 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideoacute_eth (GW)

ˬOtilde

ş 2000sup2ntilde 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2012currenƦ

2020currenƦ

NA 01 17 04 17 04 24 25 52 86 103 16

ȳ NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ǛΆAWEA 2009 (2000-2008) DOE 2008 (2030 scenario) EIA 2009 (2012 projection)

812s_CcedilN3N9A

ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ3ampGĔTHORNɅ4oumlłaumlɣė˃SrYźľ˯ǥ (REC) -Gouml3ʪȽEgraveOacute REC3ł4ĸĻźľ$3reg3Ǽacute1DFaRZnȢ1ɮ0)G ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯ4Ǖƃ3ʌiacute3UacuteLjʹ1D)ǓEHG2008 ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ

ƴ˗143UacuteLjʹPy˺Ǚɣɤʌͳdž PTCͿ ɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČɥė˃-)amp (Schwabe et al 2009)

PTC4 2004ƀ=-1AgraveƄɄǴ1ampH3ľĜAǭǝHamp2000ƀE 2004ƀ=-1Aɯņ1EumlHamp2004ƀsup24 PTCżǨɥ-GD10)ampamp2005ƀE 2009ƀ1ʟĴ3ƀŨTHORNş4˫ɱ1ŀdivideamp (AWEA 2010) Ǖƃ3Ǖʘȿʌ4$3ť0Gaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗1˞0ʪȽɱEacuteɲKAampEGɠķ

EgraveOacute1ļ+ͶoumlɯaRZn14PTC divideUgraveČ3sect3Eacuteɲ1DFļɆaRZn3ˬʹ]bn3 35KG˟gt-G (Bolinger 2010)ľĜ1D)4PTCdivideUgraveČ3˜Ĝɱ0ʪȽucircȁouml3ł REC3ĔTHORN1ʗ0GG4$HKĮG10G (Harper et al 2007)ĎȲ42

82 Ecircz 2008VUgravefrac12uumljfrac14divideBL0+

Ƿʛ-42008 ƀ3ʟĴ1Gdeg˘ɱ0ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKGǷĽġǮ3reg3Ĵ3ȣ3ampʟĴ3ſĹɱG4deg˘ɱ0aRZn3ɚƙKsup21˷ǥGraquoȜʄ0Ͷoumlɯ3aR

Zn]bnɚƙ4ĸĻ1D)ɮ0FˬOtildeşAņ

ĎȲ42 H4Ͷoumlɯ3oumlȥǛĸUcirc3 RECEgraveȉ)ampĸĻ1D)ɮ0GǘŅ3˞į1ŷęHG

67

821 oumlRuumljfrac14divide

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ1G3ͶoumlɯaRZn3ſĹˬOtildeş4 1998Έ1999ƀ3ʢ 35 MWE 2007ƀ3 120 MW

=-F2008ƀ14 83 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ1ˬʹHampͶ3Śȉş4 05 MWǵɄE 3 MW=-F2008ƀ1ˬʹHampaRZn-4ſĹ 167 MW-)amp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ʟĴ3ǰAˊɱ0Ͷ4Śȉaeligouml 15 MWgɷƑ 77 mtz 80 m (GE2010 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) -G

(b) BL0+Ouml ͶɅ34aRZn1D)ņ1ɮ0)Gszligiquestɱ14ʟĴ-4ɡƦɱ0Ͷȯ10)G

ʟĴ3aRZn3szligːǨ4ʢ 1800Έ4400 ǨŃuumlņ2008 ƀ14şdivideſĹ 3066 ǨˤŤHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ43szligːǨ3LJŚOacute4 2007ƀ1ˬʹH 2008ƀ1ɥHampaRZn1ļ+A3-ʟĴszligiquest3ͶɅ3ɉķƟK|b1ampA3-40ɏ1ɫƧ-

G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn4ƀɼś1ŀdivideG2008 ƀ1ŨTHORNHampaRZ

n14Ʒ]bn4ǰfrac12ʢ 1000kW1400okWͿE 1800kW2500okWͿƍ=-FşdivideſĹ4 1378kW19195okWͿ-G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)ĎȲ44

Ľġ1DH5Ͷ3ĕƊEgraveȉAƀǤtimesğ1)amp2008 ƀ3˕Ċȗ0E71$H1sup1ǪȥƔ1DG˞frac123Ɛ-Ͷ3EgraveȉD7AEligʬ3frac12ɣ G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009 Bolinger 2010)

(d) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ14ijŚŃuuml3ǞĠ=H(E-˘ADş|b3]bn

kWͿ14Igraveɤʌ$3reg3ǟˬ]bnˬOtildeordfnjǔŃouml|b3ĸdegʗĠ=HGʟĴ-eumlɥė˃03ʰƾ3mg4EHG3ampǷĽġǮ1ʆʰƾ4LJŚOacute1

ˁĕFʫȁʆĨGD1ǨǴūǣ3ĦordfnjKĠampʰƾĽġHampmg1ăccedilēǧH

0ė˃ƟGE1notƔ4Ͷ3ʽǹĀBIgrave˯Ǵ3ʨpound1DFʰƾ3LJŚOacuteǤGė

˃ƟG 2000ƀdeg1ˬʹHampͶoumlɯaRZn1Wiser Bolinger4 2000Έ2008ƀ3şdivideſĹ

ʰƾK 58MW80oMWͿ˟L-G (Wiser and Bolinger 2009) raquo3ʰƾ14ˊɱ1ɤʌĠ=H03]bnKĠGamp1Wiser Bolinger 3

LJŚOacute1ƀſĹ 50kW70okWͿ3ɤʌ3LJŚǓƱͳĎȲ45divideʙHGɤʌKĠamp

ʰƾʱͳ4Ńuuml-˘5 74MWh103oMWhͿijŚ-4ƀ 226kW314okWͿ-GĎȲ46ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3ʃʐ-42010ƀ=-3ʰƾKʢ 69MWh96oMWhͿBBfrac12˟ʏA)G (DOE 2008)ĎȲ47

(e) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯɯaRZn3˺-4ˇŹ3otildeĜKaRZn|

b3OumlKlteampˇŹ3otildeĜ0)G34114ȞĘɱ1ɣɤʌdžǜʯɱ1˖JHampamp-GOuml1DG˺4ͶoumlɯaRZn3˺ǴKƊ=amp

˜1Gė˃ƟFE14ʪȽɱEgraveOacute3G PTCǴKŗH00GƠHG (Harper et al 2007) Ouml1DG˺KŪ0GǞğƟɣ amp34aRZnɯi`blSrYD

7Ǩ14ɢĿ˞ʥKĠͿ3aeligouml3˃ouml13KʰƾGKdzLamp-$3ampSrYŋʢǛ

ĎȲ43 ˬOtildeeumlɥɞ 35ͼ1ļ+ ĎȲ44 ]bn4szlig 2008ƀƄ3D7o-˘ʆ2008ƀ 12DZ 31ǡsup23onjʙ1ɥampɐǯn4 1

139o (Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ45 NREL3atildemg|bELJŚampɤʌǓƱͳ3ſĹ ĎȲ46 2008ƀ3ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71szligːǨTHORNoumlsup3Ś1ļ+ ĎȲ47 ʟĴ3aRZnş0E71 2008ƀƄ3szligːǨTHORNoumlLJŚOacute1ļ+ 2008ƀo1ŃnjampLJŚOacute

68

1ijŚG40)ampE-GʟĴ3Ouml3ư4ż`bl3szligaeligouml1ťSrYŋʢEgraveȉ

Kbrvbarntilde1ȪŚK˞ȨG (Cory and Schwabe 2009)E14 2008ƀƔĄ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3Ouml1DG˺4Ĵ˕źľ3˕ȴuumlbZĮ3amp˕Ċȗ3ntildeȣ˒İ10

)G (Schwabe et al 2009) mccedilǿ-4 100ͼǷƷKsup3ŚG3˺4 2008 ƀ1ʟĴ1ǃregɱ1-40ʸF

˖JHampȷń-4$Hˊɱ-40)ampͿmĀccedilǿ-42008ƀ1ƛ˞HampˇŹǷeumlɲɞK 75ͼsup3ŚG(Chadbourne and Parke 2009)3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ42008ƀ 10DZ3˕Ċȗ$31 100Έ200`bPnĽġHGǷ1DG˺]bnņŽ1ŀdivideampͿ3ƐKĖamp1ɫƧ-G (Chadbourne and Parke 2009 Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

(f) s_CcedilN3N9A ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn3˞0ĔTHORNɅ41ͿǴŋʢG4źľ|b3Egraveȉ1ļ+oumlD

7aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3ł2Ϳɣɤʌdž3žĀ3ͿɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3dividełČ3 3ʍ͵-GʟĴ-4ouml RECł1DGĔTHORNĸĻD7źľ1D)˒ɮ0)Gouml14ˠiacuteHGH0REC14ˇɯɱaumlɣė˃SrYotildeƎʻyacuteKŗGͿmccedilǿ-4ĹʗdivideſĹͶoumlɯEgraveȉ3LJŚOacute4 ǴɱŋʢEgraveȉouml REC3ǞKĠͿčźľEgraveȉouml3gtͿ1 RECKecircdivideampEgraveȉ3Oacute10Gsup3ŚGĎȲ482008ƀ3ͶoumlɯEgraveȉ3ſĹ4ʢ 419MWh582 oMWhͿLJŚHGĎȲ49Py˺Ǚɣɤʌdž42008 ƀ14ʢ 151 MWh210oMWhͿHamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)Ś3Ƿ]bn3divideUgraveČ4 6ƀ˩ɩ-˖JHm-4 1Έ6ƀɶ1$HH 20ͼ32ͼ192ͼ115ͼ115ͼ3otildeĜ-UgraveČHGĎȲ50

(g) Q54Q1 Ͷoumlɯ3mĀccedilǿ-4==0mgfbKɥampɚ1eumlɥė˃0agraveɱǛKUacuteYacuteamp

1ʆampszlig3mgfb3bnKǷʒ3đʾǚɝ1ʆaRZn3ɚƙaRZn3Ɵ˃

Ʒ]bnʰƾ)ampŃǘ14Wiser and Bolinger 20093ecirc˘1E1˳˷ǥG

822 acuteRuumljfrac14divide

ɠķ=-3IʟĴ-4ĩɥˠȕ3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɥAring40ƈˬ3aRZnA

0ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030rdquo 3Ľġ-4= 2012Έ2018ƀ1ĩɥȳͶoumlɯ3ɯaRZnȶȦĻƴ˗KɥǾȷųȫ-ɱ1˖JHG10GǴƒHGđʾ3amp-4currenƦHGȳ

ͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙKʆampʟĴ-ɥHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn4=œķ0

ampHE3LJŚOacute4 LCOEmccedilǿ1Ġ0

(a) BL0+para ʟĴ3ȳͶ4|b3aRZnDFAņˠȕ0A310FDFˍō0ͶȯKeumlɥamp

ė˃10GGAring5^idjkŵ-ȏ˪HGCape WindȳͶoumlɯaRZn-4Ͷ3^PcK 36 MWGɯ˘0Hamp (Cape Wind 2010)szligːǨ3ʜı4 3000ǨEʢ4800ǨLJŚHG (DOE 2008)

(b) ccedil-1 ȳͶoumlɯ3Ʒ]bn4Ńuumlņ2000 ƀdegĄ5E4ğtimesğ1GʟĴȚŵ-NjȊH

GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3Ʒ]bn13ƀ3˺Ȇ1DH5Ʒ]bn4ʢ 3100 kW

ĎȲ48 2008ƀ1ŨTHORNHampͶoumlɯ3ˬOtildeş3 43ͼ3aRZnƯDzʿ4GʋƄ3ĩȐbZK10G=amp

oumllO[ƺƎʿA3bZKė˃ƟGHE3ƺƎʿ4 2008ƀ1ͶoumlɯˬOtildeşKǝamp17ͼTHORNamp (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)3ccedilǿ-42008ƀ3ǝˠͶoumlɯ3 50ͼKźľ|b3Egraveȉ0J(ĩȐEgraveȉͿȟF3 50ͼKǴɱŋʢEgraveȉsup3ŚG

ĎȲ49 2008ƀ3Egraveȉ1Gsup23sup3Ś4Wiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+A3-sup23Fsup3ŚG(1)ǴɱͶoumlɯŋʢEgraveȉoumlRECͿ= 515oMWh(2)čłbjnźľEgraveȉ =5oMWh(3)aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ = 5oMWh

ĎȲ50 3UgraveČ˩ɩ4ƀĄ53ƫAring1ļ+A3-2008ƀ 2009ƀ1eumlɥė˃)amp 50ͼĽŌUgraveČ4ʾƬ0

69

4300 okWͿ-H4notƔǘƀ1ƈˬcurrenŚHGaRZn1GOacute-GĎȲ51H1ť

US Offshore Wind Collaborative-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn4 3300kW4600okWͿ10GcurrenɂG (USOWC 2009)

(c) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn=ɥH0ampʰƾ3currenƦ4˒ʄśƟG

ɯ˘HGmg40ʟĴȚŵ-NjȊHGȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ʰƾ1G

ǰ3˟ʏF1DH5ʱ]bn4ʢ 137MWh19oMWhͿ10GĎȲ52

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 ʟĴ-4ȳͶoumlɯ3ɯD7ɥ1bZ˟=HF=ampɯBɥ3ʪA0amp

Ǝeacute3(4ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3˺]bnaRZnDFA4G10GcurrenƦ

HGȳͶoumlaRZn3˺-4ͶoumlɯaRZn3cedilʭɱ0ƷưȠ0J(Igrave

middotʇͿ-40bZ˭şƄ3ƷưȠ0J(Ȥ3ˇŹǷͿeumlɥHGƝJHGAring5Ȥ

3ˇŹǷƷ1ƛ˞HGeumlɲɞ4ś˯Gƴ˗1 25Έ350GcurrenƦHG (Justice 2010)=ampʟǕƃ4ĩɥD7ǝɱaumlɣė˃SrYƴ˗3$Hͳ-0Ouml1DGǷ˺KǓǎ

Gamp3˕OgraveTHORNIgrave˯KNjAEligG(EAȳƴ˗1ɥ-Gė˃ƟAGͿraquoɠ˖Ȱ-4

˕Igrave˯˩ɩ3˺3eumlɥė˃Ɵ0E71ɧ˻ʿ3ȉEHG (DOE 2010) ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɥė˃0|ŵ|3PdlOz4ȳͶoumlɯaRZ

n1Aeumlɥ-Gsup3ŚHGǕƃ3PdlOz14˫3 PTCɚŚ3ǷˬOtilde3divideUgraveČĠ=HGɚ1ǾȷųȫcopyņɃĸĻ3ŵ4ě3ʚĂ1GȳͶoumlɯaRZnKEuml

Gamp3==0ǞȰKeumlɥHE3aRZnKŨG (USOWC 2009)

(e) Q54Q1 ȳͶoumlɯ3ɚƙ1G˞0mgɅ4ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution

to US Electricity SupplyrdquoĽġǮ (DOE 2008)US Offshore Wind Collaborative3US Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo0E71ʟĴ3ȳͶoumlɯ1Gěʍ3Ľɯ˘ʗ-GraquoǰƔ3A314ȲƧƛ˞-G

Ugrave 8-3 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+para

2007ƀĎȲ53

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀĎȲ54 ȳ

2008ƀ ɯƯ^Pc MW 165 167 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ͷļǘ ļ 73 50 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ɯĎȲ55 szligːǨ 2891 3066 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ˀɥƀǘ ƀ 20 20 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ʒ]bn eurokW ($kW) 1241 (1725) 1378 (1915) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʰƾ ijŚͿĎȲ56 eurokW ($kW) 50 (70) 50 (70) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʰƾ ŃuumlͿĎȲ57

euroMWh ($MWh) 58 (80) 58 (80) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǑĐ]bn eurokW ($kW) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

$3reg3]bn euroMWh ($MWh) 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆWiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ51 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ52 NRELatildeccedilǿ1ļ+LJŚOacute ĎȲ53 Yacute1ampD1]bn4szlig 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆ ĎȲ54 3ȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɚƙ4ntildeʛ1ʆGȳͶoumlɯ4ʟĴ3 LCOEccedilǿ14Ġ0 ĎȲ55 eumlɥɞ 2007ƀ 33ͼ2008ƀ 35ͼsup3ŚG (Wiser and Bolinger 2008 Wiser and Bolinger 2009) ĎȲ56 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampş|b3ʰƾ4 2007ƀ 2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG ĎȲ57 eumlɥ-GƀmgEHGampɯouml|b3ʰƾ42007ƀ2008ƀ-ʗsup3ŚG

70

(f) GK_jhbrvbarX Ugrave 8-38-5 4ș1G LCOE ccedilǿ1ɥampmĀ3sup3ŚKʆG]bn3sup3Ś4HA 2007 ƀ

2008ƀ3ͶoumlɯaRZn1GA3-2008ƀƄ3o-˘GmD7ǞȰ3˳˷ǥ4Aring 1AumlKđɔHamp

Ugrave 8-4 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideccedilntildeacirciacutebrvbarX

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ Oumleumlɲɞ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash Ouml3otildeĜ ͼ 0 0 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ˇŹǷ3otildeĜ ͼ 100 100 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash WACC ͼ 65 75 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

Ǵ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ȰlaquoʌɞĎȲ58 ͼ 389 389 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FXnĎȲ59 $US 139 139 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆChadbourne and Parke 2009 Harper et al 2007 Schwabe et al 2009

Ugrave 8-5 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideCcedils_N3N9A

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

oumlźľEgraveȉĎȲ60 euroMWh ($MWh) 382 (531) 419 (582) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

źľEgraveȉ˯ǥĎȲ61 euroMWh ($MWh)

˫1 Ġ=HG

˫1 Ġ=HG ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ſĹ FITĔTHORN euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

FITǕʘǴ ƀ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash ʌƊntilde3ntildeƱ

˚ugraveʌ|bͿ ͼ NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde3˚ugrave ɯouml |bͿĎȲ62

euroMWh ($MWh) 144 (200) 151 (210) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʌƊntilde˚ugrave3 ǕʘǴ ƀ 10 10 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ȿEgraveUgraveČƀǘ ƀ 6 6 ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɑucircoumlĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

LVRTĽŌ euroMWh ($MWh) NA NA ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ǛΆHarper et al 2007 Wiser and Bolinger 2009

ĎȲ58 LJŚHampǕƃŵǕƃ3ʌɞ4$HH 35ͼ 6ͼ-Gɏ1ɫƧ (Harper et al 2007)ŵʌ4ĔTHORNEdž

HGamp˜Ĝśucircʌɞ4 389ͼ-G ĎȲ59 szlig3]bn4 2008ƀD7o-˘ʆGamp2007ƀA 2008ƀA 2008ƀǶ3ɐǯnKɥamp

(Federal Reserve 2010) ĎȲ60 2007ƀ3Ͷoumlɯ3EgraveȉˬŚ1Gsup3ŚAWiser and Bolinger 20091ļ+˥amp ĎȲ61 aumlɣė˃SrY˯Ǯ3LJŚͳKouml3źľEgraveȉ3˩ʙ1ĠG ĎȲ62 PTCnjʙOacute4 13frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORN

71

823 uumljfrac14dividefrac14divide-1

(a) -1plusmnecirc ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯTHORNoumlvgKɥ2007 ƀ 2008 ƀ3 LCOE K˩ʙamp2008 ƀ3ʟĴ LCOE2008

ƀ3ʟĴ3sup3ŚKszligAumlɥͿKđɔb2008 ƀ3đɔb3szligsup3ŚKAumlɥͿȣamp$3ʫȁ4sup23F-G Ĵecirc3ěTHORNoumlŃǘKě3đɔb3sup3ŚEʟĴ3sup3Ś9ŀccedilɱ1degTHORNđɔbʟĴ3 LCOE

3Ÿɮ93ěŃǘ3ƐKLJŚ-GD1ampʟĴ3 LCOE 4 3 MWh4 oMWhͿ-đɔb3 LCOEDFAfrac12x 8-2đɔͿ

x 8-2 EcirczrmicroQ1uumljfrac14divide-1yuml2008Āpsup363

(b) BL0+dj ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯaRZn-4ſĹˍō0Ͷȯ3ơƣKĖG-G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ|b3

aRZn-4ſĹ 3066 Ǩ3szligːǨǴƒHGđɔb-4 2628 ǨͿʟĴ-4aRZn3aeligouml0G LCOEđɔbDFAʢ 8MWh11oMWhͿfrac120G

(c) ccedil-1 ʟĴ3Ʒ]bnǑĐ]bn3ʱͳ4đɔbDFAʢ 72 kW100o kWͿfrac120)G

2008ƀ3ſĹƷ]bn4đɔb 1449kW2029okWͿ-G31ťʟĴ-4 1378kW19195okWͿ-GǑĐ]bnͶoumlɯˬOtilde3ǑĐ]bnaRZn^Pn3ƘUcirc]bnĠ=HGͿ4szliggt3Ʒ]bn1Ġ=HGsup3ŚHGƕ)ʟĴ-4Ʒ]bnfrac12

G1HLCOEđɔbDFAʢ 2MWh3oMWhͿfrac120G

(d) ccedilntildeacirciacute-1 2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3˺]bn4ˇŹǷ|amp2008ƀ4 100ͼͿ=ampđɔb-4

Ouml1DG˺KɥGampđɔbDFA0)G2008 ƀ3ʟĴ1GͶoumlɯaRZn3ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ75ͼͿ4đɔb3Oumleumlɲɞ55ͼͿDFA 200|`bPn0)G ʟĴ-4ˇŹǷeumlɲɞ 2007 ƀE 2008 ƀ1ŀdivideampH4ǕĊȗ1DFƕǽ3ǷƷŞ

ĎȲ63 mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGTHORNoumlŃǘ3Ĝ˩Oacute4đɔbrvbarAringĴ3 LCOE3Ÿ3Ĝ˩OacuteBBɮ0

GľĜAGĭǂcopyTHORN3ampͿ

72

KŊ)ampamp-G (Schwabe et al 2009)H4=ampư0Egraveȉ3frac34Ŗ)ampreg3ʊʌdžƷAĝȓ3ơƣKƖEHGD1GʟĴ3aumlɣė˃SrY3ʌdžǕʘ3Ɵ1DGA3-3Ǖʘ1DF 2007ƀ1ʢ 6ͼ3eumlɲNjAEligHHȇƉƷeumlɲɞ3KŚG10)amp (Chadbourne and Parke 2007)ʟĴ3˺]bn0GʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFA 8MWh11oMWhͿ0G

(e) igraveeacuteETHaelig ʟĴ3ʰƾ4đɔbDFAfrac120)Gʰƾ4ijŚG4Ńuuml-˘-

G3ampđɔb3ȣ-4ŃuumlǼacute-˘ampnjʙćǛ3LJŚOacuteampʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJ

Śʱͳ4 7MWh10oMWhͿđɔb3 13MWh18oMWhͿK4G1Į)ampraquoĽġ1DH5ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯɤȐ4ʰƾʚɡ]bn3˟ʏF1G˞˹Ͳ1ɠķAɷFĽ

ġHampmg4Ǩřszlig-Gamp3LJŚOacute4ƪ1˥Gƛ˞G =ampʰƾ4aRZn3ˠȕũ0G1Hfrac12G˯ƻAG (Wiser and Bolinger 2009)

HAʟĴ3ʰƾ3LJŚͳđɔbȣfrac120)G3į-GʟĴ3aR

Zn3ˠȕ4đɔbDFAņampͿ=ampʟĴ3ʰƾ4ǝˠaRZn14=DzucircIgrave

˯Ǵatilde-Gamp1ʵĥHGė˃ƟGʟĴ3ʰƾfrac120GʟĴ3 LCOE 4đɔbDFAʢ 6MWh8oMWhͿfrac120G

(f) 13T-1 $3reg3]bn4Ƿ]bn˺]bnG4szliggt3ʰƾ1Ġ=HGƦŚHGamp

ʟĴ3ccedilǿ-4ecircmĀ0reg3]bn14ʡʭɥʿ1DGfrac12ĶPob (LVRT) ˞acuteG4ɑucircouml]bnʗGN`^wbǛ4ż4ͶoumlɯaRZn1ɷDž˹

HG40

(g) uumljfrac14divideWocirceumlCcediloslash Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ]bn4đɔbDFA0)GHE3Ǖʘ1

41ͿȰlaquoʌɞ2ͿȰlaquo˹ʌƯƖE3eumlőǓƱdžĠ=HGʟĴ3DzucircȰlaquoʌɞ389Ϳ4đɔb30ͿDFA$3amp LCOE0)GE1Ƿ1DG 100˺K˟L-GampʟĴ3 LCOE ˹ʌƯƖ3eumlőǓƱdž1D)ȿͳHG40ʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯsup2ń3Ǖʘ1DFʟĴ3 LCOE4đɔbDFAʢ 5MWh7oMWhͿ0)G

824 s_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9A

m3yacuteYj3˩ʙ1DFʟĴ3ĔTHORNŃǘouml RECͿ3OacuteKͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘȣGyacuteYj4=ĔTHORNǕʘAͶoumlɯǕʘD7PdlOz3ŃǘKĠ

1˩ʙș1ĔTHORNŃǘ3gtKĠauml˩ʙGǰƔ1auml7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘKĠ˩

ʙG3ŀccedilsup3Ś1DFͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3Ńǘ1ťGĔTHORN3ɸťɱEgraveOacuteKǥE1amp x 8-34ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz3ŃǘĔTHORN3ŃǘKȣHE 23D1ʟĴ3 LCOE

KȒƭGKʆampA3-G2008ƀƄ3ʟĴ3 LCOEʢ 41MWh57oMWhͿ4ĔTHORNɅouml REC3łͿ-JHGʢ 24MWh33oMWhͿ4ɚŚ3ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHGPTCUgraveČ˩ɩ3divideͿotildeĜ-˘0EʟĴ3 LCOE3ʢ 3ccedil3 24ĔTHORN-ȟF3 3ccedil3 14ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz-JHG

73

x 8-3 Ecirczs_uumljfrac14divideCcedilN3N9Ayuml2008Āpsup364

825 aringmH7B

ʟĴ3mĀccedilǿ1GyacuteYj4ʢ ndash1 MWhndash1 oMWhͿ-G3EʟĴ3ͶoumlaRZn3ɯbrvbarȐʿ4aRZnɯ1ƛ˞HGyacute˞acuteKɄamp31ăccedil0Xj`

yKĔTHORND7ͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOzȉGľĜͿEƖG10G34

PTCżǨDzucirc-)amp 2005Έ2009ƀ3ƀͶoumlˬOtildeş3ʯɱ˫EAǥE-GH41ƀŨTHORNş4 PCT]bnɑucirc10)ampǨ1˒ȿŪG (AWEA2009)ĎȲ65

83 Ecirczuumljfrac14divideBL0+

ʟĴ3ͶoumlɯˬOtildeş4ƀƞ1ƼņGH4Ͷȯż1ˍō-]bnȣɱfrac12ĔTHORN

Ʌăccedil1F=ampľĜ1D)4Dzɲ0ǕʘPdlOzKeumlɥ-GE-GʟĴ1Gɠķ=

-3ͶoumlɯɯaRZn4HA-śǟHampʟĴeacute0GȳͶoumlɯaRZn3ɯ

EHGʟĴ3Ͷoumlɯ3]bn4ˊ1đɔbDFAfrac12H4SrYaeligouml

ņǷ]bnʰƾfrac121DGͶoumlɯ1GǕƃ3ǕʘPdlOzȜ

Ɖ1˴ŚHamp-Ĵatilde3Ņ3szlig-401AͿ3ɯaRZnEumlHG10)amp

E-GĔTHORNǕʘ3PdlOz3ɸiexclucircȁ1DFͶoumlɯɯbrvbarȐʿ3yacuteYj4lte10

)G

Ugrave 8-6 EcirczIumlsectpsup366

2007ƀ

2008ƀ ȳ

2007ƀ ȳ

2008ƀ

ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave euroMWh ($MWh)

58 (81)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ʱĔTHORND7 ͶoumlɯǕʘ PdlOz

euroMWh ($MWh)

60 (83)

65 (90) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ɯbrvbarȐʿ3 yacuteYj

euroMWh ($MWh)

ndash2 (ndash3)

ndash1 (ndash1) ndashndashndash ndashndashndash

ĎȲ64 mg|4ũǘɏʖ1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNGampɦ ĔTHORNͶoumlɯǕʘPdlOz yacuteYj4Ĵ3LCOE

BBɮ0GľĜAG ĎȲ65 x 8-1đɔ ĎȲ66 Yacute1ampD1mg|4ũǘɏʖ 1frac14-ĭǂcopyTHORNG3ampʱĔTHORNͶoumlɯ3ǕʘPdlO

zyacuteYj4Ĵ3 LCOEBBɮ0GľĜG

74

rOtildemiddot

AWEA (2010) ldquoUS Wind Energy Industry Breaks All Records Installs Nearly 10000 MW in 2009 Manufacturing

Investment Jobs Still Lagrdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) news release January 26 2010 at httpwwwaweaorgnewsroomreleases01-26- 10_AWEA_Q4_and_Year-End_Report_Releasehtml

AWEA (2009) ldquoAmerican Wind Energy Association Annual Wind Industry Report Year Ending 2008rdquo American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) at httpwwwaweaorgpublicationsreportsAWEA-Annual-Wind-Report-2009pdf

Bolinger M (2010) ldquoRevealing the Hidden Value that the Federal Investment Tax Credit and Treasury Cash Grant Provide to Community Wind Projectsrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL-2909E January 2010 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreportslbnl-2909epdf

Capewind (2010) ldquoCape Wind Signs Agreement to Buy Siemens 36-MW Offshore Wind Turbinesrdquo Cape Wind (Capewind) news release March 31 2010 at httpwwwcapewindorgnews1086htm

Chadbourne and Parke (2009) ldquoTrends in Tax Equity for Renewable Energyrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke January 2009 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication810dde60-3c78-4a9a-9c5d- a5fae8014b4fPresentationPublicationAttachment51fc06c5-1407-48ac-9dff- a605de0f58e1pfn0109pdf

Chadbourne and Parke (2007) ldquoThe Tax Equity Marketrdquo Project Finance NewsWire Chadbourne and Parke April 2007 at httpwwwchadbournecomfilesPublication572b04b4- 905e-48e1-8f6b-0f520c4f2615PresentationPublicationAttachment573bdc6c-ff85-4f99-b4d0- 25a845907bccpfn0407pdf

Cory K Schwabe P (2009) ldquoWind Levelized Cost of Energy A Comparison of Technical and Financing Input Variablesrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL TP-6A2-46671 October 2009 at httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy10osti46671pdf

DOE (2010) ldquoGeneral Loan Guarantee Program Frequently Asked Questionsrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) accessed April 2010 at httpwwwlgprogramenergygovfaq2htm

DOE (2008) ldquo20 Wind Energy by 2030 Increasing Wind Energyrsquos Contribution to US Electricity Supplyrdquo US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2008 at httpwww20percentwindorg

EIA (2009) ldquoAnnual Energy Outlook 2010 Early Release with Projections to 2030rdquo US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration (EIA) website accessed February 2010 at httpwwweiadoegovoiafaeoexcelaeotab_16xls

102Federal Reserve (2010) ldquoHistorical Rates for Euro Areardquo Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System website accessed February 2010 at httpwwwfederalreservegovreleasesh10histdat00_euhtm

GE (2010) ldquo15 MW Wind Turbine Technical Specificationsrdquo GE Energy (GE) website accessed April 2010 at httpwwwgepowercomprod_servproductswind_turbinesen15mwspecshtm

Harper J Karcher M Bolinger M (2007) ldquoWind Project Financing Structures A Review amp Comparative Analysisrdquo Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory technical report LBNL- 63434 September 2007 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports63434pdf

Justice S (2009) ldquoPrivate Financing of Renewable Energy ndash A Guide for Policymakers UNEP Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative Bloomberg New Energy Finance Chatham House December 2009 at httpwwwchathamhouseorgukfiles15542_1209_financeguidepdf

Schwabe P Cory K Newcomb J (2009) ldquoRenewable Energy Project Financing Impacts of the Financial Crisis and Federal Legislationrdquo National Renewable Energy Laboratory technical report NRELTP-6A2-44930 July 2009 at

75

httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti44930pdf

USOWC (2009) ldquoUS Offshore Wind Energy A Path Forwardrdquo US Offshore Wind Collaborative (USOWC) October 2009 at httpeetdlblgovEAEMPreports63434pdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2009) ldquo2008 Wind Technologies Market Reportrdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy July 2009 at httpeetdlblgoveaemsreports2008-wind-technologiespdf

Wiser R Bolinger M (2008) ldquoAnnual Report on US Wind Power Installation Cost and Performance Trends 2007rdquo US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy May 2008 at httpwww1eereenergygovwindandhydropdfs43025pdf

76

Uograve AĂsup1agraveUumlaacute

shyocircMQ+Q

BL0+para

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

aRZn3gPn Project title

aRZnĞregĴ3QOo

yMȣGamp AringΆoPk3đɔQOoyM13

aRZn3ʍ͵ Project type

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ʍ͵ A4ȳ

Ͷļǘ Number of wind turbines

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

Ͷʱǘ$EěĴ3ɡ˼

3ſĹɱQOoyMͿ

ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

Śȉaeligouml Rated power

Ͷ 1ļ3Śȉaeligouml ɯƯ^PcszligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

gɷƑ Rotor diameter

Ͷ3gɷƑ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

ĖͶʏ Swept area

gͶKĖGszligʏ m2-˘˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

tz Hub height

˺Ȇť3QOoyM3

ƚĸɏ3ſĹ (m) ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽraquotz

3ſĹͶƀɯouml4ɷDž

EcircGͿ tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ

Lond term average wind speed at hub height

tz-3ǴɱſĹͶ ˩ʙ14Aumlɥ0đʾƥĽ

Ȝģɯouml Net electricity production

QOoyM3ƀſĹȜ

ģɯouml szligːǨ3˩ʙ1Aumlɥ

ƺʌouml Tax capability

iacute΄ɑiacute ćɜ3aRZn3ľĜ

4ʌiacuteUacuteʘKszligeumlɥ-GͿG4

ˣmiddotʇKƾ3ľĜ4ˣmiddotʇ

Ǝ˲ƀƄ3ʌdžKszligDzucirc1eumlɥ-

GͿ4_Ƹ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘ4

Ĵʌ΄ʌ3gt1ɥHGŵʌBĸ

Ǟʌ4ńͿ Currency

szlig]bnĔTHORNPdlOz

ʗ3 2007ǫƀ 2008ǫƀ3$HHdeg˘ɱ0ǡ $HH 2007ƀ 12DZ 3ǡ 2008ƀ12DZ 31ǡͿ3ȣ1ļ+1ˬŚ

ijŚƀ]bnćfrac14 Fixed annual costs unit

ijŚʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kW

Ńuumlƀ]bnćfrac14 Variable annual costs unit

ƀʰƾ1AumlɥampɂŚ

ćfrac14 kWh

ccedil-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ͷ Wind turbine

ͶD7ɯ˙ʹ3Yacute˖Ʒ

]bn ggtzgĖ

oPznPKƿʆGPy

YN~jZb`blxj

i`blzX`blpdt

77

Qa[ɯȗgzoͶ

ɥŃĶĬraraquoļʅG4ʡʭDž

ʯ4Ġ=reg-ƲͿ Ͷ3 Wind turbine transportation

ͶK˛ŶľEaRZ

nɯ^Pn1$1ˬ

ʹ-GD1Gamp3]b

n

Ͷ3aRZn^Pn93Křpound

Gamp1ɥEHG΄n

jZ]bnD7Z3]bnK

Ġ Ͷ3ˬʹ Wind turbine installation

aRZnƈˬǴ3Ͷ

3ˬʹ]bn ƈˬ3Z3]bnKĠ

ũ˩ΆͶ3]bn Sub-total wind turbine cost

Ͷ 3ļsup23]bn3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ļʅ Foundations

QOoyM1ƛ˞0ļʅ

3ʱ]bn ]Zn$3regQOoyM

3ěͶKǓG31ƛ˞0ȒǓȅK

Ġ Ȓatildeʡʭ Internal grid

QOoyM3ŃƯ93

Džʯ1ƛ˞0QOoyM

atilde3ȥʡʭ

QOoyMatilde3szlig3ʳQO

oyM3ŃƯ=-D7ŃƯ

3ʳKĠͿŃƯ1ʡɏDF

ntilde1ʡʭʡŃĶĬGľĜ4$3Ń

ĶĬ=-3szlig3ʳKĠ1șiacuteƗɯ`blKuziacuteƗGamp1ˬʹ

HampiacuteƗ˙ʹͿ3]bnKĠƯDzʿ

D7Ͷ˛brvbarȐʿ1ǖB˿ġKcedilamp

FͶKǒAcirc1DFuumlD7Ocirc

țampFɥʭ˩OacuteKƵǍGamp3

ɴˡiacuteƗ`bl (SCADA)G4QOoyMɴˡ`bl3ˬʹKĠ

ʡʭʡ[jo]o3

Ɇƻ Grid connection grid code compliance

QOoyM3ʡʭʡ1

ƛ˞0ŃĶĬǠœ3oumlʡʭ

-ƛ˞HGȥʡʭ

QOoyMEʡʭ=-3ʳ

0[jo]oɆƻ3amp1ȨE

HGegrave3divideɱ˙ʹĠ=HGQO

oyMʡʭʡŃĶĬKĠ˜ǘ3

ŃƯKDzGľĜʡʭʡŃĶĬ

ʡʭ3ʳ3gtKĠ ʡʭŀƍ Grid reinforcement

˄Ƌ0ʡʭ-4QOoyM

3ʡ3ampʡʭ3reg3ccedil

3ĶʤKG1DF

ʡʭKŀƍGė˃ƟG

Ǡœ3ʡʭ3ŀƍ1ƛ˞0˙ʹ

ŀƍdivideɱiacuteƗ$3reg3macrdivideɱ˙ʹKĠ

Ϳ

ŃƯ Substations and transformer station

ʡʭʡŃĶĬˇiquestD7$H

=-3ĂKĠampQOoy

M3ʡʭatilde1Gszlig3

ŃƯ3]bn

ʡʭ93ʡĸɏ=-ǜĬD7ǜ

ĬKĠŃĶĬ4ĶKǤĶGȥ

ȗĬ-GL3Ͷ4aeligoumlKʡ

ʭĶ1ǤĶGŃĶĬKDzG ũ˩Άȥʡʭ Sub-total electrical netgrid

ȥʡʭ1G˫ 4 ɶ3ũ˩

˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘ ˴˯ Certification

ʡʭʡG1amp)QO

oyMK˴˯Gamp3]

bn

˴˯Hampˬ˩IJ3]bnD7QOo

yM3ś3ƈˬK3ˬ˩IJȣ

G]bnKĠ ɢĿ˺Ȇ Environmental survey

QOoyM3ɯȠ-

ƛ˞10GɢĿ˺Ȇ3ʱͳH

4ěĴ3ɢĿƐ˰EgraveǮ3acirciquest

ɱ0˞acute1˟G-G

ȩȃ3ė˃ƟɊɇograveʗͿ ͷ|3LJŚ Ǫˤ93ˡˢɱƐ ɣɣəD7ɣƩʡ93ƈˬD7 3Ɛ ɚŚ3ͻ˓˔3ɴˡ `oQyjV3Oslash

Pysup2ń3ɯ]bn

3ũ˩ Non-infrastructure development subtotal

˫3Pysup2ń3aR

Znɯ3˫ 2ɶ3ʱ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

78

ʰƾˬOtilde OampM facilities

ʰƾȐyacute3˖1ƛ˞0

D7ǟˬKǝamp1ƈˬG

]bn

Ͷ3ƈˬ14aRZn3ˀ

ɥƀǘ3ʰƾgzo3

ɏȏ]bnD7ņĺĦ3ordfnj]bn $3reg Miscellaneous

˫3aRZnɯ]bn

1Ġ=H0$3regegrave3

]bn

3ĵĸƯDzʿ93˚Ugrave

ntilde3eumlőǓƱ Interest payment before operation

aRZnŐntilde1ǓƱ

ƛ˞10Geumlő3ʱͳ ż4ƈˬȠ3OumlD7Ͷ3Ͱ

ǓƱ3amp33Ńǘ4 1Έ2ƀatilde3yacuteŃǘ-G3Xj`y

mŐHGɥeacuteƀƄ1

4ntilde-ǓƱ]bnG reg3aRZnɯ]b

n3ũ˩ Sub-total other project development costs

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫frac14ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0

ľĜʱͳ-˘

aRZnƷ]bn3

ʱͳ Total project investment costs

˫ɯɶũ˩3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

q-1Ntildeucirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǑĐbZjEgraveͳK

Ϳ Decommisioning excl scrap value

ļʅKĠQOoyMK

ĵĸEǑĐG31˞G]

bn

QOoyMD7egrave3Py

ZʗͿ3˥iquestǑĐə

$3regegrave3ƛ˞0Ǖƃ˯ǥǮ3Acircƭ]b

n ĵĸ3ˇɓɛƩ93ĮƘ Returning the land to the natural state

ĵĸ3ɠɛĮƘ3amp3]bn aRZnřpoundamp1ɯɣ

bZjEgraveͳ Scrap value

ǑĐǨ3bZjǺǛ3łČ

EgraveOacute ʳʗaumleumlɥG4bZj

łČ-Gė˃Ɵ3GQOoyM

3ǺǛ ȜģǑĐ]bn Net decommissioning costs

˫ɶ3ʱͳ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝʱͳ-˘

BL0+igraveeacute Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ǨszligːǨmO

nKͿ Operational time full load hours excluding derate

szligːǨ4QOoyM

3ſĹƀɯoumlK$3

Śȉaeligouml-ampOacute-G

H4szligːǨ3Ĝ˩-F˩ɩɱ

D7˩ɩń3ʰƾʚɡ3amp3OcircțǨK

ĠszligːǨŅŚamp^P

n1GQOoyM3ɯouml

AŀdivideG szligːǨ3mOn Derate of full load hours

QOoyMʎOslash

0Ǩ ɼȧʗ1DGOcircț3amp3ɯouml

3ǏŊKĠ ȜģǨȜģszligːǨ

Net operational timefull load hours

ǨszligːǨEmO

nKƊampǨ ȜģǨ3Ĝ˩KĠG0J(m

OnKĠGͿ

ˀɥƀǘ Economic life

ƦŚHGaRZn3ˀɥ

ƀǘ3ǴaRZn]

bn3ʱͳKĮĔ0H50

E0Ϳ

AringaRZnKʮʯɥG-

ƦŚHampˀɥƀǘsup21ăccedilʎOslash-

GɛƩ1)ampAaRZn

3ȟœˀɥƀǘ4egraveĠ0 ]bn˩ʙ3amp3˩ɩť

Ǵ Time horizon for cost

LCOE˩ʙ3ť0GǴ _OacuteKTHORNouml0ľĜ4myTn

ˬŚ1DFˀɥƀǘ1ˬŚG

79

calculations

aringm Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

Ǵ Loan duration

ȽǴ3Ĝ˩ ͰD7eumlőǓƱKĠ

― źľeuml Loan - market interest rate

euml3Oacute43ư1D)

ŃJG OgraveTHORN3otildeĜ-˘]bn

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml3ƖEHG Oumleumlɲɞ Return on debt

Ǵ1ȢƀƖEHG

euml ȢƀƖEHGeuml

ƛ˞HGǷeumlɲɞź

ľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivideʙ

KͿ Required return on equity excl market volatility risk adder

QOoyM3ǷƷŞ

ȨGeumlɲɞ Ƿ1Geumlɲ3otildeĜ

źľ3currenƦŃuumlɞbZdivide

ʙ Market volatility risk adder

ʕyenɱźľ1đdivideǷeumlɲɞ

KGdividebZKƵǍG

KɶɱampA3

źľ1GcurrenƦń3ŃuumlbZKʾƬ

Gamp1divideʙGotildeĜ

ƛ˞HGƷǷ3Ȝ

ģeumlɲɞ Net required return on investment equity

ɯbrvbarȐʿ-40aRZ

nƷŞ93ǷeumlɲɞǷƷ

ŞȨGźľŃuumlƟ3b

ZKĠͿ

Ƿeumlɲɞźľ3ŃuumlƟKʾƬG

ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKƵǍGamp mZ-ɥė ˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ƿ3otildeĜĸUcircǷ3ƯDz

ȖKͿ Equity share excl local equity ownership

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp1ƻaeligGǷ3otilde

Ĝ

ͶǓƾ˙ʹPyʚɡ˺

ʗ3]bnKamp1ƷGǷ3

ʱͳ

Ƿ3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Total equity share

ĸUcirc3Ƿ3ƯDzȖ0E71ʱ

Ʒ]bn ˺]bnK

amp1ƻaeligGǷ3otildeĜ3

Ĝ˩

ĸUcircD7ĸUcircsup2ń3ƷŞNjAEligamp

Ƿ3ʱͳ

Ouml3otildeĜ3Ĝ˩ Debt share

ʱƷ]bn˺]bn

Kamp3Ouml3otildeĜ THORNoumlGǷ3otildeĜ1ļ+˩ʙOacute

aRZn3ʱ]bn 100EǷ3otildeĜKƊampOacuteͿ

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate- municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠǘOacute

4ecircTHORNoumlG

Ȝģʌɞ Net tax rate

ǕƃĸǞŵǕƃ3Ȱlaquoʌ

ɞ3Ĝ˩ -˘ʆǕƃźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

80

shy MQ+Q

oacute-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

˛ȐʿNjAEligGʰƾʚ

ɡ]bn Manufacturer-provided maintenance

eacuteƀƄG4$3Ɣ1divide]

bn0-˛ȐʿNjAEligG

ʰƾʚɡ]bn

3]bn4żQOoyM3ˬʹ

]bn1Ġ=HGampeacuteǴ4e1

0G4-G

atildebgjy1DG˩ɩɱ

ʰƾʚɡ]bn Scheduled maintenance by internal staff

aRZnƯDzʿ3bgjy

1DGŚǴɱ0QOoyM

3ʰƾʚɡ]bn

bgjy1DGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

ń^wbŋʢ External service contracts

reg3˻Ȑʿ1DGŚǴɱ0Q

OoyM3ʰƾʚɡ]b

n

˻brvbarȐʿDGQOoyM3ŚǴɱ

^wbcurrenƦHGacirciquestɱ0]b

nijŚ|bkWͿG4Ńuuml|bkWhͿ-˘ʆ

]bn Operation costs

QOoyM3ɥ1ƛ˞

0ƀ]bn SCADA KĠQOoyM3ƴ˗ɱɥ3amp3]bn-ʚɡ]bn-40

H14ecirc˷ǥͿǘOacuteȥcurren

ɂ3]bnKĠ ɏȏ Inspections

Ͷɏȏ3amp˻ȐʿK

ˇʇ-A˫3^wb˻

Ȑʿ-A0ľĜͿ

gzo3Ľġ2~4ƀȢͿĦ3ƴ˗ɏȏͶ 1 ļampF 2 ƀȢ1 1 ǡͿKĠɏȏ3ǨȂ4kW |b

-ˬŚ ˩ɩń3Icircɡ Unscheduled repairs

˩ɩń3Icircɡʰƾʚɡ ˙ʹ3ǖŇȥɛȯ$3reg3ńį1DG

ʰƾijŚͿũ˩ OampM costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ OampM costs variable subtotal

˫3Ńuumlʰƾ3ũ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝͳ-˘ ʚɡ Administration

QOoyM3ʚɡ

D7ɴɽ3]bn ʬƈəˇuumlD7ɗǛͿʗKĠ

Igrave Insurance

QOoyM$33

bZD7$3Ɛ1OtildeG

amp1ǓƱƀIgraveǛ

uumlɤIgraveǏŝUgraveuacuteɍ˚UgraveD7ɢĿ

)ampQOoyM1ɷDžEcirc

Gegrave3Igrave

ʡʭǛ Grid charges

ʡʭ93ʡ0E71ɥKǓ

ǎG31ƛ˞HGƀǛ

_4HKş|b3]bn

G4SrY]bnTHORNouml

G-G ʡʭ3]bnijŚͿ Grid costs fixed

˫3ʡʭǛ

ʡʭ3]bnŃuumlŃuumlͿ Grid costs variable

˫3ʬ˺ʛ]bn

^Pn3 Site lease

QOoyMKˬʹampĵ

ĸ3ƯDzʿ1ǓƱʱͳ Ͷ 1 ļ1macrǓƱľĜAʱͳ-ǓƱľĜAʱ]bn-THORNouml

G ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

aRZnşƀ

kWͿ1ļ+aRZnǓƱƀʌͳ

ͼ|b3ʌ4˫3Z`n-ƀ

șŃuuml30ŃǘTHORNoumlG

1ȲƧ-4ş|b3ʌKʆ

$3Oacute4ecircTHORNoumlG ȸouml Electricity consumption

ouml3ˇŹȸ ʡʭ3ĝǴD7ɯƯ3uumlʗ3amp

_4HEKş|bG4

SrY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ɢĿɂŚ˰Egraveʗ Environmental measurements evaluations etc

QOoyM3˴ė0E7

1KʰƾG31ƛ˞0ƀ

ɢĿɂŚ˰Egrave

_4HEKş|bG4Sr

Y]bnTHORNoumlG-

G

81

reg3ƀ]bnijŚͿũ

˩ Other annual costs fixed subtotal

˫3ijŚɢĿɂŚǛ

ʰƾŃuumlͿũ˩ Other annual costs variable subtotal

˫3oumlȸ]bn

ƀ]bnijŚͿ Annual costs fixed

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘ ƀ]bnŃuumlͿ Annual costs variable

˫ɶ3Ĝ˩ ˫ɶ3]bn3atildeˮeumlɥ-0ľ

Ĝ4ʱͳ-˘

Ts_-1 Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ƀźľđdivide]bn Annal market participation fee

ʕyenɱoumlźľ1đdivideGamp

3ƀ]bn źľɥʿʡʭɥʿ1ǓƱ

ʬ˺Ǚ]bn Balancing costs

ͶoumlɯKěǨ1oumlʡ

ʭ1DžʯGamp3]bnʱͳ

aeligoumlcurrenɂ1Gś3ŀccedil]

bn

kW]bn4ȜƉ0ʬ˺ǙźľKG43]bnouml3źľ

Egraveȉ1Ġ=HGampccedilG3İ

0ľĜAG_4HE3]bn

Kş|b3]bnG4S

rY]bnTHORNoumlG-

G ŋʢ]bnĕƊǛʗͿ Contract costs (transaction fees etc)

ŋʢ3ʰƾ1ƛ˞0ƀǓƱͳ kWh-˘ĕƊǛ

reg3]bn3ʱͳ Subtotal other costs

źľđdivide]bnʬ˺Ǚ]b

nŋʢ]bn3Ĝ˩

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKşǦ1GĽ

Ō kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƟʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWhǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlG

źľoumlEgraveȉ Market price electricity

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

ƀſĹźľoumlEgraveȉ kWh

źľ˯ǮEgraveȉ Market price certificates

QOoyM1ǓƱJHG

aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ3

ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kWhǕʘ1DFG4źľ|b-ˬŚHGľĜGǘOacute4ecirc

THORNoumlG FITĔTHORN Feed-in tariff revenue

FIT1DGĔTHORN ż4aR

Zn]bn3ǓƱ3amp3ŀ

ccedilǓƱŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞK

ʄIgraveG31Auml ouml3źľEgrave

ȉKĠľĜAG

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐKŐampƀƄ1

ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǘOacute4ecircTHORNoumlHG

reg3ĔTHORN3ʱͳ Subtotal other revenues

˫3reg3ĔTHORN3Ĝ˩

Ccedil ― shyocircocirc

shyocirc Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ʌƊntildedž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as a before-tax credit

ʌƊntilde

3ʌdž1ťGntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊntilde

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGʌ|b3ntildeƱ˚

ugrave3otildeĜHĝ otildeĜaRZ

n3ʱͳoͿG4ˬOtildeşampF

3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ

82

|b3PdlOz4aRZn1

DGʌƊntilde1ɥHGƕ)aR

Zn1ťEgraveOacuteaRZn3eacute

ƀ3˹ʌͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3

ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜaRZnG

G4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3

ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ

4_Ƹ-Gʌdž4Ĵ

ʌ13gtɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ

|-40Ϳ ʌƊƔdž3ʌ|

b3ntildeƱ˚ugrave AringΆUgraveČͿ Upfront tax-based investment subsidy ndash as an after-tax deduction (eg depreciation)

ʌƊƔ

3ʌdž1ļ+ntildeƱ

˚ugraveƕ)3ͳ4ʌƊƔ

|b-aRZn1ɥ

HG

aRZnƷʱͳ3otildeĜʆ

ɥeacuteƀ1ɥHGYacute˖ʌdžH

ĝ otildeĜaRZn3ʱͳoͿ

G4ˬOtildeşampF3]bnokWͿ1ɥHG3ʌ|b3Pdl

Oz4aRZn1DGʌƊƔ1ɥ

HG3ʌiacuteUacuteKĖćɜa

RZnGG4aRZn

ƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDzucirc1eumlɥ-G

ˣmiddotʇKƾ4_Ƹ-G

ʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥHGƕ

)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ntildeƱ˚ugrave Upfront cash investment subsidy

aRZnszligiquest1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ aRZnƷ]bnʱͳ1ĈGotildeĜ

ʆntildeƱ˚ugrave3ʱͳ

fyn3eumlɲ Soft loan advantage

fyn3eumlɲ4 Oumleuml

őɞ3ɈŀotildeƊʱͳ-G fyn1DFɠ˖źľeumlDFfrac12

euml-3Ƚė˃ ĸUcirc3ǷƯDzȖ Local equity ownership

ĸUcirc3ƯDzȖ1Gegrave3˞

acuteKǁGamp mZ-ɥė˃ǰfrac12 20ͼͿ

UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

ĴG4Ǖƃ3Ȱlaquo

ʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash national or federal

ʼnǕƃaRZn1

˹ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆ

źɨǻG4ŵǕƃ3Ȱ

laquoʌɞ Corporate tax rate ndash municipal or state

ĸǞˇȬiquestaRZn1˹

ʌɞ3Ĝ˩ ͼ-˘ʆźɨǻɻŵʗKĠ

shyl Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

ş|b3ʌ Capacity-based taxes

kW-ʆHGƀʌͳ ȢƀǓƱD7ƀșŃuumlGş

|b3ʌͳ FITĔTHORNAringΆɯouml|b3PdlOzͿ Feed-in tariff revenue (eg production based incentives)

FIT G4ɯouml|b3PdlOz1DGĔTHORN

ż4aRZn3]bnK

31˞ȨHGŀccedilǓƱ1

ŏƎ0ǷeumlɲɞKdivideampOacute

ouml3źľEgraveȉKdivideGľĜA

G

acirciquestɱ0ʑĸaRZn3ˠȕQO

oyMĩȐɱɥKŐampƀƄ

1ŷęHGouml3źľEgraveȉĽŌͿ

G4ijŚEgraveȉĜ˩ȥǛKĠ)1divideADǨCcedilœǛiacuteƄKɥ

GĴoPkʗͿ4ƀ3ǘOacuteAring

$HƀK Ś0

AͿKTHORNoumlG FITǕʘǴ Feed-in tariff policy period

FIT G4ɯ˚ugraveǓƱJHGʱǨ

aRZn1ƦŚHGʪȽɱƕŎǴ

K0ʜı3Ǵɮ0H5 FIT3ǓƱ|Aɮ0)Gė˃Ɵ

83

GFIT ǕʘǴ3Ĝ˩OacuteK1THORNoumlG

ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž Production-based before-tax credits

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b30J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊntilde

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊntilde|

b-aRZn1ɥH

G

aRZn3ʌǓƱntilde1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGɯouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿƕ)aRZn1ťEgraveOacuteņaRZneacuteƀ3˹ʌ

ͳKucircȁɱ1GͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteK

ĖGćɜaRZnGG

4aRZnƯDzʿĝƀ3ʌdžKDz

ucirc1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gt

ɥHGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40

Ϳ ɯouml|b3ʌƊntilde

dž3ǕʘǴ Production-based before-tax credit policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHGǴ

3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɯ|b3ʌƊƔdž Production-based after- tax deductions

ͶoumlɯKugraveƭGamp3ɯ

ouml|b0J( kWh

ampF3Ϳʌdž ʌƊƔ

1ɥ

HGͿƕ)H4ʌƊƔ|

b-aRZn1ɥHG

aRZn3ʌǓƱƔ1ʌƊntilde|

b-ɥHGouml|b3ʌdž

kWhͿ3ʌiacuteUacuteʘKĖGćɜaRZnGG4

aRZnƯDzʿĝƀƄ3ʌdžKDzucirc

1eumlɥ-GˣmiddotʇKƾ4_

ƸGʌdž4Ĵʌ13gtɥ

HGƕ)ŵźɨǻ|-40Ϳ ɣɤļɵ3džʌƊƔͿ

ǕʘǴ Production-based after- tax deductions policy period

ƀʌƊntildedžɥHG

Ǵ3Ĝ˩ ƦŚHampaRZn3ˀɥƀǘsup2atilde

G

ɑucircoumlĽŌ Reactive power bonus

ʡʭ3Ķ˺ǙKEumlGamp

3ĽŌ kWh

LVRTĽŌ Low voltage ride through

ʡʭ3ŘŚƄʄIgrave3amp3ĽŌ

kWh

źľEgraveȉ˯Ǯ Market price certificates

źľG4Ǖƃ3Ǖʘ1D)

ˬŚHampQOoyM

3aumlɣė˃SrYůƟ˯ Ǯ

3ƀſĹźľEgraveȉ

kW_4ɮ0Gźľ-0J(ěʍ3źľEgraveȉ-Ϳłamp3˯

Ǯ3ȼĜdivideſĹźľEgraveȉKTHORNoumlG

divideUgraveČ Accelerated Depreciation

OtildeĦ3ͳK˺middot˩D

7ʌťʘUgraveČG˩ɩ ěƀƄ3UgraveČͳ4ɤ3ˀɥƀǘ3eacuteǴD

FBBƀ|b-eacuteǴƷʱͳ

3ͼˬŚG UgraveČǴ Depreciation period

aRZn3OtildeĦK˺

middot˩D7ʌťʘUgraveČ

Gƀǘ3Ĝ˩

3m-4_aRZn3

EgraveOacuteKUgraveČGƀƄ$3UgraveČɞKŚʻ

GșƀƄsup2ȢƀȟͳKUgraveČGǞȰK

ɥGĴ-4_UgraveČ˩ɩEgrave

ͳKdegɡȖ˖Auml1D)˟ʏG

dj

Ocirc aYfrac12ordfUacuteIgrave

yacuteYj Financial gap

aRZn3˺1ƛ˞

HGyacuteYj ʱ]bn˺]bnͿEƛ˞

HGǷeumlɲɞ93Ʒ1ƛ˞0ĔTHORN

PdlOzKƊampOacute ĹʗĀɯĎEgrave Levelized electricity generation cost

QOoyM3ˀɥƀǘ

1QOoyM-ɣɤH

amp kWh3ɠķ3ǡſĹ]bn

szlig3]bnKĠƷaumlƷ

ʰƾͿĔTHORNPdlOz˺]

bnĹʗĀĎEgrave4otildeƊɞͶ3ˀɥƀ

ǘKɥ˩ʙ

• 表紙13
• 要旨13
• 目次13
• 第1章 7ヶ国の風力発電の財務コスト13
• 第2章 デンマーク13
• 第3章 ドイツ13
• 第4章 オランダ13
• 第5章 スペイン13
• 第6章 スウェーデン13
• 第7章 スイス13
• 第8章 米国13
• 付録A 変数および用語解説13