ifpri- food demand and supply in bihar, p kumar, ifpri
DESCRIPTION
A N Sinha Institute of Social Science (ANSISS), and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) organized a one day consulation on ‘A Food Secure Bihar: Challenges and Way Forward’ on August 06, 2014 at ANSISS, Patna, Bihar. You are aware that National Food Security Act (NFSA) has been enacted with a view to ensure food security in India and Bihar is one of the state where ensuring food security is a major challenge. A better understanding of NFSA in the context of Bihar will be helpful for effective implementation of the NFSA. The main objective of the policy consultative workshop is to deliberate on the options and strategies for making NFSA efficient and effective in BiharTRANSCRIPT
Food demand and supply in
Bihar: Is the existing growth
sufficient?
Praduman Kumar
Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi
Consultation Workshop
A Food Secure Bihar: Challenges and Way Forward
August 06, 2014
ANSISS, Patna, Bihar
Challenges towards food secure Bihar
Extremely high and growing population pressure
High dependence on agriculture
Predominance of small and marginal farmers and increasing land fragmentation
Lacking in technology, information, knowledge and innovation
Bihar rich in natural resources, yet food
deficit state due to low productivity and
huge yield gap.
Numerous biotic and abiotic constraints.
Flood and drought prone constraints.
Weak institutions
Poor infrastructure: Poor road network,
thin markets, fragile electricity sector and
inefficient irrigation system.
Outlines Long-term changes in dietary pattern
Food demand
Food production (Supply)
Self-sufficiency
Way forward food secure Bihar
Data
House hold consumption expenditure data
collected by National Sample Survey
Organization (NSSO)
NSS Rounds: • 38 (1983)
• 43 (1987-88)
• 50 (1993-94)
• 55 (1999-2000)
• 61 (2004)
• 68 (2011)
Long term changes on food consumption in Bihar
(kg/cap/year)
Food BPL APL
1993 2011 %
change
1993 2011 %
change
Rice 70.9 67.9 -4.2 87.8 78.3 -10.8
Wheat 69.3 61.8 -10.8 87.0 74.5 -14.4
Cereals 150.4 130.8 -13.0 179.7 154.2 -14.2
Pulses 5.8 7.4 27.1 12.6 10.7 -14.8
Edible-oils 2.9 4.6 55.8 5.6 7.3 31.6
Vegetables 62.5 55.3 -11.5 95.6 76.6 -19.9
Fruits 2.0 2.8 42.1 7.1 8.6 20.6
Sugar 3.4 3.9 16.0 7.8 7.4 -5.8
Milk 16.0 25.3 58.0 67.7 69.8 3.0
Meat, fish,
eggs
1.9 2.2 19.1 3.5 4.4 25.6
Long term changes on food consumption in Bihar
(kg/cap/year)
Food Rural Urban
1993 2011 % change 1993 2011 % change
Rice 80.0 77.2 - 3.5 76.1 70.6 - 7.1
Wheat 77.7 71.0 - 8.6 79.8 70.7 -11.4
Cereals 166.5 149.8 -10.1 157.1 141.8 - 9.8
Pulses 8.9 9.8 9.7 10.6 10.0 - 5.9
Ed. Oil 4.1 6.4 58.3 5.1 6.9 34.8
Vegetables 78.4 70.3 -10.4 81.3 71.7 -11.8
Fruits 4.1 6.8 68.4 6.8 7.4 9.4
Sugar 5.2 6.3 21.2 7.4 6.7 - 9.5
Milk 40.1 57.9 44.3 49.0 55.6 13.5
Meat, fish,
eggs
2.6 3.7 46.3 3.2 3.9 21.1
Methodology: Food demand
Projections
The Food Characteristic Demand System (FCDS)
model.
This model is based on demand for energy,
variety and tastes for foods for computing
demand elasticity.
These demand elasticities are used in projecting
the consumption per household for various food
items.
Assumptions GNDP will grow at the rate of 7.5% for rural and 5.8%
for urban households
The average annual per capita consumption ending 2004
is taken as the base consumption.
Population in million
Year Rural Urban
2011 87.4 10.2
2016 91.9 10.8
2021 96.9 11.5
2026 100.3 12.7
dt = d0 * (1+y*e)t
The annual consumption of the commodity
is predicted as
Where:
dt: annual per capita consumption in year t
d0: annual per capita consumption in base year
y: growth in per capita expenditure/income
e: expenditure elasticity of demand for the commodity
Human demand for each food item is
arrived by multiplying per capita projected
consumption in the year ‘t’ with projected
population.
Total domestic demand = Direct Demand
(human consumption) + Indirect demand
(seed, feed, industrial use, wastage etc.)
Indirect demand of food in
Bihar
Food commodity Indirect demand
(% of total demand)Rice 14.5
Wheat 18.4
Maize 51.6
Pulses 25.9
Edible oil 23.9
Vegetables 34.1
Fruits 78.0
Milk 34.6
Sugar 60.5
Meat, eggs and fish 49.7
Rice demand and production in Bihar
Year Demand
(mt)
Production
(mt)
Deficit/
Surplus
(mt)
Self-
sufficiency
(%)
2011 9.85 7.16 -2.7 73
2016 10.70 7.37 -3.3 69
2021 11.56 7.58 -4.0 66
2026 12.35 7.79 -4.6 63
Annual
growth, %
1.66 0.56
Wheat demand and production in Bihar
Year Demand
(mt)
Production
(mt)
Deficit/
Surplus
(mt)
Self-
sufficiency
(%)
2011 8.19 4.73 -3.5 58
2016 9.12 4.87 -4.3 53
2021 10.15 5.01 -5.1 49
2026 11.19 5.16 -6.0 46
Annual
growth, %
2.17 0.58
Maize demand and production in Bihar
Year Demand
(mt)
Production
(mt)
Deficit/
Surplus
(mt)
Self-
sufficiency
(%)
2011 1.19 1.84 0.66 156
2016 1.16 1.92 0.76 166
2021 1.11 2.01 0.90 181
2026 1.03 2.10 1.07 203
Annual
growth, %
-0.39 0.87
Demand and production of Pulses in
Bihar
Year Demand
(mt)
Production
(mt)
Deficit/
Surplus
(mt)
Self-
sufficiency
(%)
2011 1.113 0.531 -0.583 48
2016 1.310 0.534 -0.776 41
2021 1.563 0.537 -1.025 34
2026 1.860 0.541 -1.319 29
Annual
growth, %
3.31 0.12
Demand and production of
edible oils and seeds in BiharYear Demand (000 t) Production
(000 t)
Deficit of
Edible-
oils
(000 t)
Sel-
sufficien
cy, %
Edible
oils
Edible-
oils seeds
Edible-
oils seeds
Edible-
oils
2011 341 1137 140 42.0 -299 12
2016 380 1267 143 43.1 -337 11
2021 431 1438 148 44.2 -387 10
2026 502 1674 151 45.4 -457 9
Annual
growth,
%
2.18 2.18 0.51 0.51
Demand and production of sugar
and sugarcane in BiharYear Demand
(million ton)
Production
(million ton)
Deficit
of
sugar
(mt)
Sel-
sufficienc
y, %
Sugar Sugarcane Sugarcane Sugar
2011 1.21 13.14 12.26 1.04 -0.07 93
2016 1.25 14.69 13.11 1.11 -0.13 89
2021 1.40 16.45 14.01 1.19 -0.21 85
2026 1.59 18.67 14.98 1.27 -0.31 80
Annual
growth,
%
2.26 2.26 1.34 1.34
Vegetable demand and production in
Bihar
Year Demand
(mt)
Production
(mt)
Deficit/
Surplus
(mt)
Self-
sufficiency
(%)
2011 12.42 14.69 2.27 118
2016 15.19 16.47 1.27 108
2021 19.03 18.45 -0.58 97
2026 23.99 20.68 -3.31 86
Annual
growth, %
4.1 2.3
Demand and production of fruits in
Bihar
Year Demand
(mt)
Production
(mt)
Deficit/
Surplus
(mt)
Self-
sufficiency
(%)
2011 3.69 3.77 0.09 102
2016 4.67 3.98 -0.69 85
2021 6.10 4.20 -1.89 69
2026 7.98 4.44 -3.54 56
Annual
growth, %
4.8 1.1
Milk demand and production in Bihar
Year Demand
(mt)
Production
(mt)
Deficit/
Surplus
(mt)
Self-
sufficiency
(%)
2011 6.28 6.67 0.39 106
2016 8.22 8.82 0.60 107
2021 11.17 11.66 0.49 104
2026 15.33 15.43 0.10 101
Annual
growth, %
5.52
Demand and production of meat in
Bihar
Year Demand
(000 t)
Production
(000 t)
Deficit/
Surplus
(000 t)
Self-
sufficiency
(%)
2011 133 288 155 216
2016 204 310 107 152
2021 332 334 2 100
2026 548 360 -188 66
Annual
growth, %
9.8 1.5
Demand and production of eggs in
Bihar
Year Demand
(000 t)
Production
(000 t)
Deficit/
Surplus
(000 t)
Self-
sufficiency
(%)
2011 90 59 -31 66
2016 136 76 -61 55
2021 221 96 -125 43
2026 362 122 -240 34
Annual
growth, %
9.7 4.9
Demand and production of fish in Bihar
Year Demand
(000 t)
Production
(000 t)
Deficit/
Surplus
(000 t)
Self-
sufficiency
(%)
2011 611 400 -211 65
2016 938 524 -414 56
2021 1540 687 -853 44
2026 2556 900 -1656 35
Annual
growth, %
10.0 5.5
Demand and production of meat, fish
and eggs in Bihar
Year Demand
(mt)
Production
(mt)
Deficit/
Surplus
(mt)
Self-
sufficiency
(%)
2011 0.83 0.75 -0.08 90
2016 1.28 0.91 -0.37 71
2021 2.09 1.12 -0.98 53
2026 3.47 1.38 -2.08 40
Annual
growth, %
9.81 4.04
Annual growth in demand and
production of food in Bihar
Food Demand
(%)
Production
(%)
Rice 1.66 0.56
Wheat 2.17 0.58
Maize -0.39 0.87
Pulses 3.31 0.12
Edible oils 2.18 0.51
Sugar 2.26 1.34
Vegetables 4.11 2.30
Fruits 4.84 1.08
Milk 5.52 5.75
Meat, Fish & Eggs 9.81 4.04 1.72
Food security mission
Year Bihar India % share of Bihar
Number of poor households in Bihar (Million)
2011 5.8 55.8 10.39
2016 6.2 59.2 10.47
Demand of cereals by poor households in 2016
Rice 2.96 22.84 12.9
Wheat 2.14 16.70 13.0
Both 5.10 39.54 12.9
Monthly demand by poor households (kg/month/household)
Rice 39.1 31.6
Wheat 28.3 22.6
Both cereals 67.4 54.3
Way forward food secure Bihar
Bridging yield gaps and improve TFP
Integrated nutrient management and
sustainable use of water
Agricultural diversification and value
addition with emphasis on horticultural,
livestock and fisheries
Strengthen institutions and improve basic
infrastructure like road network, power and
agro-processing and markets .
Link farmers with remunerative markets
ADMINISTRATOR
• Awareness
• Local wisdom
• Peoples’
participation
• SMALL
FARMERS
FARMER SCIENTIST
Establish Active Interfaces :
Bridge research and policy gaps
PRIORITY AREAS
SKILL DEVELOPMENT
NATURALRESOURCES
DIVERSIFICATION
POST HARVEST AND
VALUE ADDITION
TFP
MARKET VALUE CHAIN
Link farmers with
remunerative market
Higher investment on
R&D
ICT
Irrigation
Power
Rural Road