ii · 2016. 4. 22. · ***embargo: not for publication or broadcast before 12.01am. 21st april...

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0 N

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u. i~ · j

1f l '" $ I : ~I I'• I J ~/. '

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***Embargo: not for publication or broadcast before 12.01am. 21st April 2016***

ANZ/Property Council Survey June 2016

160 158

150 - - ------ ~ ------- ------ - ~ ------ ------ --·- --- --- -- -- - --~ ------ - ------ ~---- --------- -~---- ----- ----~--- -- ---- ----- ~ -------- ------

140

>< ~ 130 ~ ~ c::: (I)

>::> 4:::: c::: 8

120

110

100

147

142 143 138 140 __ !J? ________ _

137

131 13 1 129

123

- ~-- ----- 111

------~-;:1 __ :_-----90 t ---- - --- -----J -------- ------L------- -------~--- ---- ------ L - ----- ---- --- ~-- ------------ ~- ---------- --~--- -----------~------- --

80

• Mar-16 • Jun- 16

100 = neutral

TAS

Source: ANZ/Property Council

NSW ACT VIC AUS

Page2

QLD SA WA

..... , ..... NT

r-. .LU

l'Rt l l'Ell l'Y < « )l : N < '11

I 1 t I 1o ' l .~ I I

>< QJ \:)

~ QJ \..)

c: QJ

\:) (i::: c: a

***Embargo: not for publication or broadcast before 12.01 am, 21st April 2016***

ANZ/Property Council Survey 160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90 ..... - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - -" - - - - - - ··-- -- - - - ..=-....o< - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

80 ...._ ____ _____ , ____ ___ • __ ___ ___ ___________ __ ___ ____ _______ _____ __ ___ ___ __ __ __ ___ ________ ___ __ ____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ _____ _____ __ ________ _

70 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep- 12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep- 13 Dec-1 3 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun- 15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16

- NSW - vie - QLD --WA - SA - TAS - NT ACT - AUS

...... , ..... £"\ J..J..J.

Source: ANZ/ Property Council l'Rt ' J>E R"I Y < '< )lj N < ·11

1lf l o-"!l.'1 •

\0 ~ a l"\J Q) c:: ::J

"'"" \::) c:: ~

l.t) ~ a l"\J Q)

30

20

10

0

§ -10 "'"" c:: Q) Q)

~ "-' Q)

..Q

~ .s .s

-20

-30

~ -40 c:: ~

6 -so

-60

19

ACT


TAS

•••Embargo not for publication or broadcast before 12.01am, 21st April 2016 ...

Shift in sentiment: 12 months to June 2016 Property Industry Confidence Index

0

SA VIC QLD AUS WA

NSW

...... , ......

-so

NT ~

w. I'll..< l l'l.:1( 1 y < "< )l .N< ' 11

,,, 11, . •,.•!• ·

>< ~ .s V)

c:: .2 ~

~ u Q)

~ Q)

~Q)' ::::i u ~ c:: Q) cu ..c::u cu V) -Q ~~ I... (])

70

60

50

40

0 c:: ~ '-- 30 ~ ~ I...

.f? 20 -s c:: 0 E ~ 10 '-4

0 AUS


... Embargo: not for publication or broadcast before 12.01am, 21st April 2016***

Forward work schedule expectations Over the NEXT 12 MONTHS in the state you primarily operate, will your forward work schedule:

'·' Sep-15 '"'- Dec-15 ~ Mar-16 • Jun-16

·--- ----·

NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS

~ rl~' ~ .. ~::: .W, ""·':? ~@,~ ----·· ~ ... ~ .-~-W&%.·-·---------

NT

...... 1•n•

ACT

"' >-Li l'R< lPERTY

( '( ) \,; '.,[( 'l l •'· h · ., ......

60

>< ~ .s so V) c::

.S2 ~

~ u ~ ..-.... 40 ~ ~ Cl) c:: c:: ~ ·- ~ tt: ...Q

~ Q) 30 "tl ~ ~ Q)

..r::: ~

..r::: ~ 20 .--;·;-:·.::. ~

c:: ..... :.··· 0 E :-·:::-::

I

C"J '""" 10

f:{~~ ~:~ .X~·:•: . ....., ...

... .:::; :~

r:~;;j' ...... ~ .. ;i.·:::·:~

0 AUS NSW


***Embargo: not for publication or broadcast before 12.01am, 21st April 2016***

Staffing level expectations Over the NEXT 12 MONTHS do you expect your staffing levels to:

Sep-15 Dec-15 S!! Mar-16 • Jun-16

VIC QLD WA SA TAS

Page6

NT

...... , ..... ACT

"' UJ. I'\~( ll'LJ~ . .- 1 y

( ' ( )l ; '!t ' It ,,, 1 11.'11.'1•

~ .s V) c::

15


National economic growth expectations Over the NEXT 12 MONTHS will Australia's economic growth be:

" Sep-15 Dec-15 !$ Mar-16 • Jun-16

.S? ~

1 0 -!---- ----·-----·--·-· -·----·--·-· ---- ... ---------··· --

~ l...J (lJ

~ (lJ

:S ~

5

e .......... CJ'i (lJ 0 l...J l...J ·- c:: E: ~ a ru c:: ..Q

a~ 5 l...J (lJ -(lJ c:: - .......... ru c:: a

'.L:;

-10 ru c:: "tJ ru (lJ

..c:: ru

-15 :S c:: a E: I

-20 C'\i ........

AUS


NSW VIC QLD WA SA

.. ;.·:;~·

.}.

:=:-... -: ;.:-.·:·

TAS NT

....... , . .,. .. ACT

r'o J..ll

l'Rt lJ'ERTY { "( ">l: 'll · 11

•'' f , .,. ,,.,.

>< ~ .s V)

c:: .~ ~

~ lJ <l>

~ <l>

£ S: e .......... CJ)~ .~ ~ E~ o..c c:: ~ 0 <l> lJ c:: <l> '--

40

30

20

10

0

~ -10 ~ V)

\::> C1J <l>

...c:: C1J

£ c:: 0 E I

(\j ......

-20

-30

-40 AVG



State economic growth expectations Over the NEXT 12 MONTHS in the state your primarily operate, will economic growth be:

· Sep- 15 Dec-15 • Mar-16 • Jun-16

NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS

Page8

NT

....... , ..... ACT

"' UJ. l'Rt ' l'ERTY

c "< ) t;'\!CI l •' ' Ji, '1 •!· ·

~ .s l/) c:: .o .c ~ u Q)

~ Q)

Q) Cl)

c:: Q? (\] u ti c:: Q) ~ ~I'll ~ .!:)

~~ l/) Q)

~ -S .8 .s 1::J

~ ..c:: (\]

£ c:: 0 E I

"" '""-!

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

... Embargo not for publication or broadcast before 12.01am. 21st April 2016***

Interest rate expectations Over the NEXT 12 MONTHS how do you expect INTEREST RATES to change:

i Sep-15 Dec-15 ~ Mar-16 • Jun-16

-------- -- - -· ----------·--------

AUS NSW VIC QLD WA SA

Source: ANZ/ Property Council

TAS NT

..... , . .,.. ACT

r'\

U1 !'Rt ll'EJ~ . .' I Y

( "t K .:N Cfl •'' 1 .. •, ,1:11

~ .s (/) c:

10

.52 5 "'-..i

~ u Q)

~ Q) 0 Q -:.Q ......._ ~ Q)

:::::: u ~ c: ::::. ~ 5 ~ ~ -Q) ..Q u "'-..i c: Q) ~ c: c: '-'

i.t::

'.\.

. ;:~;

"'-..i ..Q

~ -10 ~'--~--

'ti ~ Q) -c: ~

:S c: 0 E I

-15

... Embargo: not for publication or broadcast before 12.01am. 21st April 2016 ...

Debt finance availability expectations Over the NEXT 12 MONTHS how do you expect the AVAILABIUTY OF DEBT FINANCE to change:

Sep-15 Dec-15 lli! Mar-16 • Jun-16

--------- \~- - ----- ----- · L LJ

1--------·--·--

--- ------- -- --

C'\J ....... -2 0 ~. ·-- - - - - ·---------·- -------·- --------· ---- ---··- ---- --



TAS NT

........ , .... ACT

,.... ill

l'R< l l'EIUY l "Ol: 'lctl

,,, 1 •• ,,_.,.

50

)(

~ 40 .s (/)

§ 30 :.c ~ ~ 20 ~ £ '§' 10 ~ c::: e~ C})~ 0

- ..Q ~ 4-..J ~ Q) Q.. c::: ~'----10 \) ~ Q)

-c: -20 ~

£ -30 c:::

0 E I

C'\J "'"'i -40

-so

·-Embargo: not for publication or broadcast before 12.01am, 21st April 2015•••

House capital growth expectations Over the NEXT 12 MONTHS in the state you primarily operate, how do you expect capital values to change for RESIDENTIAL:

· Sep- 15 '"' Dec-15 fill Mar-16 • Jun-16

-;~~;t:~~ ·; _::

_fr~;:: _____ _

9 . ~:: :-;~ ---- ---

:;;:; ... :. ------------ ----- - -- - -~:l~:::------

~::;;::- . '.:.:" .·;',, ~-

AUS NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS NT


...... , ..... ACT

"' l..ll Pl~ ll'ERTY ( ·o t..::'u ·r1

1•t lu•1 1.'i 1

20

~ .s 10 ti) c:: Q :c ~ 0 u (].)

~ (].) ...........

-!::: (].) -10 """'u ~ c:: e~ ()) cu -- ~ -20 cu """' -~ (].)

Q.-S ~

\::) -30 IB

-!::: cu

"E -40 c:: Q

E I

~ -so

-60


Office capital growth expectations Over the NEXT 12 MONTHS in the state you primarily operate, how do you expect capital values to change for OFFICE:

:: Sep-15 Dec-15 ai Mar-16 U un-16

:~f>


Source: ANZ/Property Council ..... , .....

ACT

,..... ill

l'Rt ll'ERTY < ·( iL: N< ·r r

,•t , , . , ,,.,.

~ .s V)

c:: .o .4:;

~ u Q)

~ Q)

-!::: .........._ -1..J ~ ~ c:: e~ (J') ~

- ..Q ~ -1..J ~ Q) Cl.. c:: ~ '-u \J ~ Q)

-!::: ~

:S c:: 0 E I

C'\J """I

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

... Embargo: not for publication or broadcast before 12.01 am, 21st April 2016***

Industrial capita l growth expectat ions Over the NEXT 12 MONTHS in the state you primarily operate, how do you expect capital values to change for INDUSTRIAL:

,. sep-15 ~< Dec-15 ~ Mar- 16 • Jun-16

--- - - - --- -· ·-·-·---~-··-····-···-----·-------···---··-.-·----···----····-·----·------·- ·---

-----·-- ····--·-··-··-· - - ---- ~- - ·--·· - -··--·--------------------------······----------·---·

'--------··--·- ·····-·······--·-------- ----------------·- ----------------- - -- - --- ---------------------··--------~-------- -----·------- - ------------------·--· ····-------------- ------


..... , ..... ACT

" UJ.

Source: ANZ/Property Council l'Rt ll'L.'.RTY

C:Ol j :"J('( 1 111 ' " ' ti.

11•

~ \:)

.s (/') c:: 0 :c ~ ~ l> Qj

~ Qj

""' :S ~ ~ c:: o~ I....~ CJ) ..Q ..__

~t ·cs.-S ~

\:) ~ Qj

..c::: ~

:S c:: 0 E I

C'\I -....i

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

***Embargo: not for publication or broadcast before 12.01 am, 21st April 201s•••

Retail capital growth expectations Over the NEXT 12 MONTHS in the state you primarily operate, how do you expect capital values to change for SHOPPING

CENTRES:

Sep-15 > Dec-15 !ll! Mar-16 • Jun-16

-15 ~---------------····-··· ·-·--·---·---- -


Source: ANZ/Property Council ...... , ....

ACT

'"' .LU l' Rl l l'EIU Y

("()l ; '/("11 •" 1 •.. ·!· ·

70

~ \:)

.s 60 (/) c:: .S2 .i...,

ro tj so Q)

~ Q) ...-....

...c:: Q)

~ ~ 40 e~ Cl) nl - ..c nl .......,

t ~ 30 C"J .......... \J \:)

~ ~ 20 13 c:: 0

~ 10 C'\I """-!

0


Retirement living capital growth expectations Over the NEXT 12 MONTHS in the state you primarily operate, how do you expect capital values to change for RETIREMENT

LIVING:

'' Sep-15 " Dec-15 !!:! Mar-16 • Jun-16


Source: ANZ/Property Council ........ , . .,..

ACT

r-.. LU

Pill l l'ERTY ( :t )l; N t ' l l

,,, , ,, 't 1.'•·

)<

~ .s (/') c:: .o .i::;

~ l> Q)

~ Q)

-s'QJ' ~ ~ e~ Oi ~ -- ..Q ~ -1....1

·- Q) Q c:: ~ '--l)

\::) ~ Q)

...c::: ~

£ c:: 0 E I

C"\I ........

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

***Embargo: not for publication or broadcast before 12.01 am, 21st April 2016***

Hotel capital growth expectations Over the NEXT 12 MONTHS in the state you primarily operate, how do you expect capital values to change for HOTELS, TOURISM

& LEISURE:

~,. Sep-15 '" Dec-15 1illl Mar-16 • Jun-16

.,: ... ; ..


Source: ANZ/Property Council .au• , .....

ACT

"' J...Ll. l'R< ll'E RTY

C< ) l ; '!( 'II •' ' 1 ... , ., ... .

70

'"' ~ 60 c: ~ ru

..Q .._, <lJ

-S 50 ~ .s (/)

§ 40 '.L:;

~ l..J <lJ

~ :S c: 0 E I

("\j "-!

.c ·s;

B ru c:

.!2 .._, ::J ~ .._, (/) c: a

30

20

10

0

-10


Construction activity expectations by sector

Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep- 13 Dec- 13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar- 15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec- 15 Mar-16 Jun- 16

- Residential - Office - Industrial - Retail - Retirement Hotels

Source: ANZ/Property Council ....... , ...... /'"""'\

J...ll l'R( lJ'ERTY ( :t lt; :'\i( ' l l

o•t I" •1.•!••

IO ..... a l"\I (I) c: :::i ~

10

5

0

-g -5 Ct)

Li) ..... ~ -10 (I) c: :::i ~ -15 c: (I) (I)

S: "t -20 .Q

~ -g -25 ·-.s ~-30 c: Cl) -c:

u -35

-40

7.5

Hotels


... Embargo: not for publication or broadcast before 12.01am, 21st April 201 5•••

Shift in sentiment: 12 months to lune 2016 Construction Activity Expectations Index

3.8

1.6

-0.3 -1.1

Retirement Retail Industrial Office

-36.0

Residential

..... i•na.

"' ill l'R< ll'Elt" l Y

t ' l >l.'Nt ·r r ,,, ,.,,,,,:,.

40

30

>< ~ 20 c:: ·-~ c:: '"" cu ~ 10 E c:: '2~ I.... cu (I) -Cl


Government performance index, June QTR 2016 Is the State/Territory Government where you primarily operate doing a good job planning and managing growth?

Sep-15 Dec- 15 lll:i Mar-16 • Jun-16

'"··--·---------.. -·------·-----·----------.. ··-·-·-----·· ·-·----··-··--------------~-

·------ - --- --.... ·----------·-----·--·- ·-·-- ---------------------·----------------·-·--·-----------·-·--·-··---·--·-·------·-··-----·-·-----·- ···-

Cl....., 0 ...... (I) c:: c:: (I) ..___.

E E ~ -10 0

·----------------------·------- _ JI __ -----~;:h ~

- 2 o -1----· ...... -.. --·-·-·-----· .. -· .. ----.. ·--.. ·-----·---·-- ---·---·---------·-·---·-·- --- -·-·-··--- .. · ·"··-··------------------·----·-·-·-··--·--~------·-·---·-----------·P:[.i;~ -·--------- .. - --.. ----------------·

-3 0 - - ... ·----·-----·

AVG

Source: ANZ/ Property Council

NSW VIC QLD WA

SA TAS NT

•N• , ... ACT

r"\

W-l'R< l l'LRTY

u >l;~cr1 "' '" .,_,,+,,


12-month cap rate expectations index 25

~ 20 1---------------- ---- --- ---- ------------------ ------------------------ -------------- --------------------------------- -- 20.3

I/) c:: .2 .i.....

~ 15 -1- ------ ------- --------------- ---- --------------- ------------------------------------------ ---------------- -------- -----

~ Q)

Q) ........

~ ~ 10 (\I c:: ..c::~ u (\I Q) -!::)

.i..... .i.....

~ Q) 5 Q.~ B \:J (\I

~ 0 (\I

E c:: 0

E I -5

C"J '"""i

-10

-4.5

NSW


3.2 2.9

-0.2

• Prime

AUS QLD VIC SA

• Secondary

ACT TAS WA

....... , .... NT

,,......, LI.J.

l'Rl I J> El~TY ( ·nl ·N( ·rr

" ' 1 ... , •. ,:11

35°/o

30°/o

25°/o (/)

~ m

\!... 20°/o 0 Q) tri JS ~ 15°/o ~ &

10°/o

5°/o

00/o

... Embargo: not for publication or broadcast before 12.01am, 21st April 2016***

Foreign RESIDENTIAL property sales Over the PAST 3 MONTHS, what proportion of total residenti al property sales in your business have been to foreign (non

Australian resident) buyers:

Sep-15 «.: Dec-15 w Mar-16 • Jun-16

---------- ---- ---------------------------------~-----------:::::-::::-::::: l~"Z(:~ - -----------------------------------··id--

AUS NSW VIC QLD WA SA ACT

Source: ANZ/Property Council ...... 1•n•

!""-. .LU

l'R{ ll'ERTY < '.< )l; 'Jcr I

,., . .. . •1. •!··

20°/o

15°/o

V'l QJ -"' V'l

"'-0

~ 10°/o 19 c: QJ

~ &

5°/o

QO/o

... Embargo not for publrcatlon or broadcast before 12.01am. 21st Apnl 2016'"

Foreign INDUSTRIAL property sales Over the PAST 3 MONTHS, what proportion of total industrial property sales in your business have been to foreign (non


Sep-15 Dec-15 ~ Mar-16 • Jun- 16


Source: ANZ/Property Council Page 24

..... .., i•n•

ACT

I'> .LU.

1'1(1 ll' l : lU Y t ·(it ·~t ·r1

1 •••

30°/o

25°/o

\/) 20°/o ~ ~

'4.... 0

~ 15°/o ~ c: <lJ ~ & 10°/o

5°/o

00/o

•••Embargo: not for publication or broadcast before 12 01am 21st Apnl 2016 ...

Foreign HOTEL property sales Over the PAST 3 MONTHS, what proportion of total hotel property sales in your business have been to foreign (non-Australian

resident) buyers:

Sep- 15 Dec-15 " Mar-16 • Jun- 16


Source: ANZ/Property Council Page 25

... .., , .... r.... LI..l

1'1(1 l l 'Ll l l y ( ( )l "''-=( 11

,., 1. ,.

25°/o

20°/o

(/') <lJ .._

~ 15°/o ..._ c <lJ en ~ c:: ~ 10°/o &

5°/o

00/o

"'Embargo not for publication or broadcast before 12 01am. 21st Apnl 2016 ...

Foreign RETAIL property sales Over the PAST 3 MONTHS, what proportion of total retail property sal es in your business have been to foreign (non-Australian

r esident) buyers:

Sep-15 Dec-15 $ Mar-16 • Jun-16

'"' ·:~::::;- ------------------------------- -----------------------------


Source: ANZ/Property Council Page 23 ...... , .... " LI..J.

l'l .t..• 11 'L:l t I y ( ·( i l ''\.!( ·r r

.; 1 • •

V)

..!!:!

25°/o

20°/o

m 15°/o .... 0 Q) CJ)

.rs c: ~ 10°/o &

5°/o

00/o

· ··Embargo not for publication or broadcast before 12.01am, 21st Apnl 201s•••

Foreign COMMERCIAL property sales Over the PAST 3 MONTHS, what proportion of total commercial property sales in your business have been to foreign (non


Sep-15 Dec-15 ~ Mar-16 • Jun-16


Source: ANZ/Property Council Page 22 ....... , ..... " UJ.

l'l~' l l' U~ I Y ( l ll ""\/( ·ri

.. 1 .....

ii · 2016. 4. 22. · ***embargo: not for publication or broadcast before 12.01am. 21st april...

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