iiasa's contribution for the integrated disaster risk ... · government and its fiscal risk in...

IIASA's Contribution for the Integrated Disaster Risk Management

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

“Risk” has been part of IIASA’s activity profile since the Institute’s foundation. This theme is critical, as the prospect of unintended consequences from technological, environmental, and social policies continues to stir intense debates that shape the future of societies across the world. Relying on probability calculations, risk became a theoretical focus designed to bolster a scientific, mathematically-based approach toward uncertainty and risk management.

Early controversies in the 1970’s and 1980’s on nuclear power, liquid natural gas storage, and hazardous waste disposal – all early research topics at IIASA – made clear to the expert community, however, that probabilistic calculations of risk, although essential to the debates, are not sufficient to settle issues of public acceptance. In response, IIASA has pioneered research on risk perception (Otway and Thomas 1982), “objective” versus “subjective” assessments (Kunreuther and Linnerooth 1982), systemic cultural biases (Thompson 1990) and risk and fairness (Linnerooth-Bayer 1999).

As a critical part of this history, IIASA is widely recognized for its advancements in stochastic and dynamic systems optimization (e.g., Ermoliev 1988), treating endogenous uncertainty and catastrophic risks in decision-making processes (reviewed in Amendola et al. 2013), and advancing statistical methods for probabilistic assessment (e.g., Pflug and Roemisch 2007). The hallmark of IIASA’s risk research is the integration of these multiple strands of mathematical and social science research.

One important in-house model taking an integrated perspective in the RISK program at IIASA is the so-called CatSim model (Catastrophe simulation), which focuses on the government and its fiscal risk in the face of natural disaster events. It is a mainstay of the Program’s methodological and policy research and was first developed to aid public officials in developing countries to assess catastrophic risks from natural hazards and analyze options to enhance their country’s financial resiliency. The model takes a “systems approach” by integrating catastrophe risk modeling with financial and economic modeling The model enables users to explore the impact of traditional and novel financial instruments, including reinsurance and catastrophe bonds, terms of the costs of reducing the risk of a financing gap. CatSim has proven useful in other contextes as well, e.g., for allocating climate adaptation and development funds to support disaster resilience in the most vulnerable countries. Based on the model framework, assessed exposure and financial vulnerability to extreme weather events on the global scale can be performed too (Hochrainer-Stigler et al. 2014)

Beyond modeling, IIASA has pioneered the exploration of novel financing instruments to provide safety nets to vulnerable communities and governments facing climate risks (Linnerooth-Bayer, J. & Amendola 2000). These instruments now feature prominently on the agendas of development organizations and NGOs, and they are also gaining attention in the climate change adaptation community (Linnerooth-Bayer and Hochrainer-Stigler, 2015). In an early influential policy paper, IIASA scientists argued

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that donor-supported risk-transfer programs, some based on novel instruments, would leverage limited disaster-aid budgets and free recipient countries from depending on the vagaries of post-disaster assistance (Linnerooth-Bayer et al. 2005).

As a final mention, IIASA’s contributions to integrated disaster risk management have included the design and implementation of new forms of bottom-up governance, most notably stakeholder processes which co-design policy options with experts, and explicitly recognize large value differences.

References

Amendola A, Ermolieva T, Linnerooth-Bayer J, Mechler R (Eds) (2013). Integrated Catastrophe Risk Modeling: Supporting Policy Processes. Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands.

Ermoliev Y (ed) (1988). Numerical techniques for stochastic optimization, Springer, New York.

Hochrainer-Stigler S, Mechler R, Pflug GC, Williges K. (2014) Funding public adaptation to climate-relateddisasters. Estimates for a global fund. Global Environmental Change, 25:87-96.

Linnerooth-Bayer J (1999). Climate Change and Multiple Views of Fairness. In: Fair Weather? EquityConcerns in Climate Change, FL Toth (Ed), Earthscan Publications Ltd., London, pp. 44-65.

Linnerooth-Bayer, J. & Amendola, A. Global Change, Natural Disasters and Loss-sharing: Issues of Efficiency and Equity. Geneva Pap Risk Insur Issues Pract (2000) 25: 203. doi:10.1111/1468-0440.00060

Linnerooth-Bayer, J. and Hochrainer-Stigler, S. (2015). Financial Instruments for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation. Climatic Change, 133(1): 85-100. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1035-6.

Kunreuther H and Linnerooth-Bayer J (1983). Risk Analysis and Decision Processes: The Siting of Liquified Energy Gas Facilities in Four Countries, Springer Verlag, Berlin.

Otway H and Thomas K. (1982) Reflections on Risk Perception and Policy. Risk Analysis, 2:69-82.

Pflug G, Römisch W (2007). Modeling, Measuring and Managing Risk. World Scientific.

Thompson M, Ellis R, Wildavsky A (1990). Cultural Theory. Westview Press.

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Collaboration between DPRI and IIASA and establishment of IDRiM Society

The move to set up the IDRiM Society was based on the success of a series of nine Forums on Integrated Disaster Risk Management organized by the Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI) of Kyoto University and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) located in Austria. The first forum was in 2001 which was the starting point for cross-collaboration with the aim to strengthen a new disciplinary area of integrated disaster risk management. As indicated, after eight annual conferences and active interactions under this initiative, this led ultimately to the formation of the IDRiM Society in 2009 which officially was launched on October 15, 2009 in Kyoto, Japan, at the 9th IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management. The launching of the IDRiM Society was promoted also by many national and international organizations including Beijing Normal University, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED), the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR), the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC/EC) and other organizations. The IDRiM Society was enthusiastically welcomed and its Charter approved by more than 100 international experts, practitioners, and individuals from more than 20 different countries working in the disaster risk management field. Since then, 7 international conferences on Integrated Disaster Risk Management were held around the world, including Austria, USA, China, the U.K., Canada, India and Iran.

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9th IIASA-DPRI Conference on Integrated Disaster Risk

Management:

“Scientific Challenges in Implementing Integrated Disaster Risk

Management in a Changing World.”

Kyoto

Japan.

12-16 October

2009


Management:

“Integration and Multi-disciplinarity.” .

Induno-

Olona Italy

1-2 September

2008


Management:

“Coping with Disasters: Global Challenge for the 21st Century

and Beyond.”

Stresa

Italy

19-

21September

2007


Management:

“Risk and Challenges for Business and Industry.”

Istanbul

Turkey

13-17 August

2006


Management:

“Innovations in Science and Policy.”

Beijing

China

14-18

September

2005


Management:

“Challenges and Implementation.”

Ravello

Italy

3-7 July

2004

3rd IIASA-DPRI Conference on Integrated Disaster Risk

Management:

“Coping with Regional Vulnerability.”

Kyoto

Japan

3-5 July

2003

2nd IIASA-DPRI Conference on Integrated Disaster Risk

Management:

“Megacity Vulnerability and Resilience.”

Laxenbourg

Austria

29-31 July

2002

1st IIASA-DPRI Conference on Integrated Disaster Risk

Management:

“Reducing Socio-Economic Vulnerability.”

Laxenbourg

Austria

1-4 August

2001

Past IIASA-DPRI Conferences

2016/11/29http://www.idrim.org/?page_id=43

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Annual Conferences of IDRiM Society

The 1st Conference of the International Society for

Integrated Disaster Risk Management

(IDRiM2010) :

Sharing IDRiM experiences under different

socio-economic and cultural contexts

University Natural

Resources and applied

Life Sciences

Vienna,

Austria

1 – 4,

September

2010.

The 2nd Conference of the International Society

for Integrated Disaster Risk Management

(IDRiM2011):

Reframing Disasters and Identifying Deficits in

Risk Governance

the University of

Southern California

(USC),

Los Angeles,

United States

14-16

July

2011

The 3rd Conference of the International Society for


(IDRiM2012) :

From surprise to Rationality: Managing

unprecedented Large-Scale Disasters

Beijing Normal

University

Beijing,

China

7-9

September

2012

The 4th Conference of the International Society for


(IDRiM2013):

From Opportunity to Action: Bridging the Gap

between Disaster Reduction and Development

through Science(s), Technology and People

Centred Actions

Northumbria University,

Newcastle upon Tyne,

UK

4-6

September

2013



(IDRiM2014):

Building Disaster Resilient Communities

Western University,

London, Ontario,

Canada

30 October

– 1

November

2014



(IDRiM2015):

Disaster Risk Reduction: Challenges and

Opportunities for Sustainable Growth

Scope Convention

Centre, New Delhi,

India

28 30

October

2015

The 7th Annual Conference of the International

Society for Integrated Disaster Risk Management

(IDRiM 2016):

Disasters and Development: Towards a Risk

Aware Society

Hotel Abbasi,

Isfahan,

Iran

1 – 3

October

2016

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2016/11/30 Risk and Resilience - Risk and Resilience - IIASA

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/RISK/RISK-home.html 1/1

Woman with Orange Umbrella. MuddyRoad China © Pavliha | iStock

R isk and Resi l ience

The Risk and Resilience (RISK) Program aims to better understand the risks toeconomic, ecological, and social systems arising from global change and to help transform the ways in which societies manage them.

Society needs to make effective responses to the risksassociated with global change. To that end, scientists mustunderstand the systemic and dynamic linkages ofenvironmental, social, and economic risks and how these areimpacted by different policy measures. This will enable riskmanagement and governance systems to be improved inorder to facilitate long-term sustainable development.

Systems analysis, risk modeling, and transformativegovernance are fundamental to the mission of Risk &Resilience (RISK). The Program examines environmental andsocioeconomic risks and policy options across multiple spatialand temporal scales to provide an analytical foundation forimproved management and governance of natural disasters,

address climate change, and ease the technological and ecological transitions to sustainability.

The Program has four specific goals:

To advance the conceptual and methodological development of risk and vulnerabilityresearch

To carry out selected risk and vulnerability assessments

To carry out integrative stakeholder-led case studies, and

To develop interactive tools for training on vulnerability and adaptation.

The program builds on the methodologies, activities and experience gained from the previousIIASA Risk, Modeling and Society (RMS) and Risk, Policy and Vulnerability Programs. It integratesacross other IIASA programs and links closely with the vulnerability/resilience researchcommunities.

Risk analysis and modelingThe Risk Analysis and Modeling research theme investigates how to manage the risksarising in socio-ecological systems, including risks from climate extremes and othertypes of hazards. More

Risk Management and AdaptationThis thematic research area focuses on developing policy-relevant methodologicalinsight for informing risk management and adaptation strategies; the aim of which isto support the multi-scale integration of agendas on risk management, climatechange adaptation and sustainable socio-economic development. More

Governance in TransitionThe Governance in Transition research theme analyzes how governance structuresshape decisions and subsequent outcomes by building on and contributing toresearch on decision-making processes, public acceptance, risk perception, cognitivebiases, and cultural perspectives, as well as participatory governance design. More

CONTACT DETAILSJoanne Linnerooth-Bayer

Acting Program Director

Risk and Resilience

YSSP Dean

Young Scientists Summer Program

T +43(0) 2236 807 308

[email protected]

CONTACT DETAILSReinhard Mechler

Deputy Program Director

Risk and Resilience

T +43(0) 2236 807 313

[email protected]

SUBSCRIBE TO THEIIASA NEWSLETTER

NEWSASA researchers participated inthe international workshop onHeterogeneous Dynamic Modelsof Economic and PopulationSystems

02 December 2016

Study maps the climate impactof agriculture

29 November 2016

Executive Assistant (m/f) to theDirector General/CEO

29 November 2016

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From Kobe to Sendai.

Tracing progress in risk discourse and analysis for

informing risk management and climate adaptation.

Reinhard Mechler Deputy Program Director, Risk and Resilience Program, IIASA

Risks associated with natural disasters and climate change rank high among global socio-economic sustainability challenges. These risks, the outcomes of coupled socio-ecological systems' interactions, can lead to large adverse developmental consequences (erosion of livelihoods, increase in poverty, loss of human, economic, environmental and social assets, migration) and have been at the centre of attention of disaster management and climate negotiations. Concepts, methodologies, methods and metrics associated with risk have been of fundamental and increasing saliency for informing policy and action on these interlinked challenges. The talk traces the evolution in conceptualisation, modelling and assessment as well as policy related to risk analysis for the examination and management of disaster and climate risks. Building on work done by the presenter with many colleagues, the central line of argumentation of the talk is to show how thinking and analysis on disaster and climate-related risk over the last few years has seen important evolution towards broad-based debate concurrently encompassing epistemological, instrumental, reflective and participative discourses, thus providing great potential for informing action on key challenges associated with extreme event risks across multiple scales along the science-society interface.

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Dr. Reinhard Mechler

Personal Profile Reinhard Mechler has more than 15 years of experience working on the economics of disaster risk, risk modelling and climate change. He currently is deputy director of the ‘Risk, Policy, Vulnerability’ research program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and a senior lecturer at the University for Economics and Business in Vienna. Specific interests of his include catastrophe risk modelling, the impacts of extreme events and climate change on development, the use of novel risk financing mechanisms for sharing disaster risks, and the assessment of the efficiency and equity of climate change response measures. He was a lead author on IPCC’s special report on adaptation to extreme events (SREX) and is a lead author on the chapter on the Economics of Adaptation in the upcoming 5th assessment report. He has been leading and contributing to many projects for international and donor organizations including the European Commission, DFID, CIDA, the UN, ProVention Consortium, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, Caribbean Development Bank and GIZ. Areas of expertise Economics of natural disaster risk management and adaptation, disaster risk sharing instruments and insurance, systems modelling, climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, development economics, ecological economics. Editorial boards Climate Risk Management, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, @Risk Qualifications 2003. Ph.D. Economics University of Karlsruhe, Germany 1998 Diploma in Economics, University of Heidelberg, Germany 1993-1994 Academic year, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, USA B.A. equivalents Economics 1995, Mathematics 1992, English 1992 Positions held 2013 to present Deputy program leader “Risk, Policy, Vulnerability,” IIASA 2006 to 2013 Leader research group “Disasters, Adaptation and Development,” IIASA 2009 to present Senior lecturer at Vienna University of Economics and Business 1999 to 2006 Research scholar, IIASA 1998 to 2001 Ph. D. researcher, University of Karlsruhe 1994 to 1998 Research Assistant, Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim Languages English Fluent German Mother tongue Spanish Basic French Basic Italian Basic

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Peer-reviewed publications Jongman, B., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Feyen, L., Aerts, J., Mechler, R., Botzen, W., Bouwer, L., Pflug, G.,

Rojas, R., Ward, P. (2014). Reply to 'Statistics of flood risk.' Nature Climate Change, 4:844-845 Mechler R. & Bouwer, L. Reviewing trends and projections of global disaster losses and climate

change: Is vulnerability the missing link? Climatic Change, Published online 12 August 2014. Mochizuki, J., Mechler, R., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Keating, A., Williges, K. (2014). Revisiting the

"disaster and development" debate - Toward a broader understanding of macroeconomic risk and resilience. Climate Risk Management, Article in press (Published online 22 May 2014).

Scolobig, A., Mechler, R., Komendantova, N., Liu, W., Schroeter, D., Patt, A. (2014). The co-production of scientific advice and decision making under uncertainty: Lessons from the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, Italy. GRF Davos Planet@Risk, 2(2):71-76

Mechler, R. Bouwer, L., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Aerts, J., Surminski, S. (2014). Managing unnatural disaster risk from climate extremes. Nature Climate Change 4, 235-237

Jongman, B., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Feyen, L., Aerts, J., Mechler, R., Botzen, W., Bouwer, L., Pflug, G., Rojas, R., Ward, P. (2014). Increasing stress on disaster risk finance due to large floods. Nature Climate Change 4, 264-268

Scrieciu, S. Chalabi, Z., Belton, V. Mechler, R. (2014). Advancing Methodological Thinking and Practice for Development-Compatible Climate Policy Planning. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9538-z.

Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Mechler, R., Pflug, G., Williges, K. (2014). Funding Public Adaptation to Climate-related Disasters. Estimates for a Global Climate Fund. Global Environmental Change 25, 87-96

Mechler, R., Hochrainer-Stigler, S. (2014). Revisiting Arrow-Lind: Managing sovereign disaster risk. Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research 6 (1): 93-100

Kundzewicz, Z.W., Kanae, S., Seneviratne, S.I., Handmer, J., Nicholls, N., Peduzzi, P., Mechler, R. Bouwer, L., Arnell, N., Mach, K., Muir-Wood, R. Brakenridge, G.R., Kron, W., Benito, G., Honda, Y., Takahashi, K., Sherstyukov, B. (2013). Flood risk and climate change – global and regional perspectives. Hydrological Sciences Journal 59 (1): 1-28

Kull, D., Mechler, R. Hochrainer-Stigler, S. (2013). Probabilistic Cost-Benefit Anaysis of Disaster Risk Management in a Development Context. Disasters 37(3): 374-400.

Rezai, A. Taylor, L., Mechler, R. (2013). Ecological Climate Economics. Climate Policy and Economic Growth. Ecological Economics 85:69-76.

Scrieciu, S., Rezai, A., Mechler, R. (2013). On the economic foundations of green growth discourses: the case of climate change mitigation and macroeconomic dynamics in economic modeling. WIREs Energy and Environment 2 (3): 251-268.

Michel-Kerjan, E., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Kunreuther, H., Linnerooth-Bayer, Mechler, R. Muir-Wood, R., Ranger, N., Vaziri, P., and Young, M. (2012). Catastrophe Risk Models for Evaluating Disaster Risk Reduction Investments in Developing Countries. Risk Analysis 33(6): 984-999

Lal, P., Mitchell, T., Aldunce, P., Auld, H., Mechler, R. Miyan, A., Romano, L., Zakaria, S. (2012). Chapter 6. National Systems for Managing the Risks from Climate Extremes and Disasters. In: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Dokken, D., Ebi, K.L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S., Tignor, M. and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: 339-392.

Murray, V., G. McBean, M. Bhatt, S. Borsch, T.S. Cheong, W.F. Erian, S. Llosa, F. Nadim, M. Nunez, R. Oyun, A.G. Suarez (Lead authors) and Mechler, R. et al. (Contributing authors) (2012). Case studies. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University

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Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 487-542 O’Brien, K., M. Pelling, A. Patwardhan, S. Hallegatte, A. Maskrey, T. Oki, U. Oswald-Spring, T.

Wilbanks, P.Z. Yanda (Lead authors) and Mechler, R. et al. (Contributing authors) (2012). Toward a sustainable and resilient future. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 437-486.

Cardona, O.D., M.K. van Aalst, J. Birkmann, M. Fordham, G. McGregor, R. Perez, R.S. Pulwarty, E.L.F. Schipper, and B.T. Sinh (Lead authors) and Mechler, R. et al. (Contributing authors) (2012). Determinants of risk: exposure and vulnerability. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 65-108.

Handmer, J., Y. Honda, Z.W. Kundzewicz, N. Arnell, G. Benito, J. Hatfield, I.F. Mohamed, P. Peduzzi, S. Wu, B. Sherstyukov, K. Takahashi, Z. Yan (Lead authors) and Mechler, R. et al. (Contributing authors) (2012). Changes in impacts of climate extremes: human systems and ecosystems. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 231-290.

Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Sharma, R.B, and Mechler, R. (2012). Disaster Microinsurance forPro-Poor Risk Management: Evidence from South Asia. Journal of Integrated Disaster Risk Management, 2(2): 1-19.

IPCC (2011). Summary for Policymakers. In: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Dokken, D., Ebi, K.L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S., Tignor, M. and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Hochrainer, S., Mechler, R. (2011). Insurance against Losses from Natural Disasters in Developing Countries. Evidence, gaps and the way forward. Journal of Integrated Disaster Risk Management DOI10.5595/idrim.2011.0013

van Vuuren, D., Isaac, M., Kundzewicz, Z., Arnell, N., Barker, T., Criqui, P., Berkhout, F., Hilderink, H., Hinkel, J., Hof, A., Kitous, A., Kram, T., Mechler, R., Scrieciu, S. (2011). The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation, Global Environmental Change, doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.11.003.

Hochrainer, S. and Mechler, R. (2011). Natural Disaster Risk in Asian Megacities: A Case for Risk Pooling? Cities. DOI 10.1016/j.cities.2010.09.00

Mechler, R., Rezai, A., Stagl, S. (2010). Is Green Growth feasible? Some reflections and implications for Austria. Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter (4): 451-465.

Mechler, R. and Z.W. Kundzewicz (2010). Assessing adaptation to extreme weather events in Europe—Editorial. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 15 (7): 611-620.

Aakre, S., I. Banaszak, R. Mechler, D. Rübbelke, A. Wreford and H. Kalirai (2010). Financial adaptation to disaster risk in the European Union. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 15 (7): 721-736

Mechler, R., S. Hochrainer, A. Aaheim, H. Salen and A. Wreford (2010). Modelling economic impacts

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and adaptation to extreme events: Insights from European case studies. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 15 (7): 737-762

Hochrainer , S., J. Linnerooth-Bayer and R. Mechler (2010). The European Union Solidarity Fund. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 15 (7): 797-810

Hochrainer, S., Mechler, R., Kull, D. (2010). Micro-Insurance Against Drought Risk in a Changing Climate: Assessing demand and supply considerations. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, doi 10.1108/17568691011040407.

Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Suarez, P., Victor, M. and Mechler, R. (2009). Drought insurance for subsistence farmers in Malawi. Natural Hazards Observer 33 (5): 1-8.

Patt, A., van Vuuren, D., Berkhout, F., Aaheim, A., Hof, A., Isaac, M., Mechler, R. (2009). Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand? Climatic Change, doi 10.1007/s10584-009-9687

Hochrainer, S., Mechler, R., Pflug, G. (2009). Climate change and financial adaptation in Africa: Investigating the impact of climate change on the robustness of index-based microinsurance in Malawi. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 14: 231-250

Lugeri, N., Hochrainer, S. and Mechler, R. (2009). Going to Extremes. European Research and Innovation Review 8: 22-23

Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Mechler, R. (2007). Disaster safety nets for developing countries: Extending public-private partnerships. Environmental Hazards 7: 54-61

Cardenas, V., Hochrainer, S., Mechler, R., Pflug, G., Linnerooth-Bayer, J. (2007). Sovereign financial disaster risk management: the case of Mexico. Environmental Hazards 7: 40-53

Linnerooth-Bayer, J., R. Mechler and M.J. Mace (2007). Insurance for Assisting Adaptation to Climate Change in developing countries. A proposed strategy. Climate Policy 6 : 621-636

Hochrainer, S., and R. Mechler (2006). Naturkatastrophen: Auswirkungen, Loesungsansaetze und Rollen fuer Wissenschaft, Staat und Wirtschaft. Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter 4: 561-579

Derwent, R.G., P.G. Simmonds, S. O’Doherty, D.S. Stevenson, W.J. Collins, M.G. Sanderson, C.E. Johnson, F. Dentener, J. Cofala, R. Mechler, and M. Amann (2006). External influences on Europe’s air quality: Baseline methane, carbon monoxide and ozone from 1990 to 2030 at Mace Head, Ireland. Atmospheric Environment, 40: 844-855

Linnerooth-Bayer, J., R. Mechler, G. Pflug (2005). Refocusing Disaster Aid. Science 309: 1044-1046 Freeman, P., L. Martin, R. Mechler, K. Warner (2004). A Methodology for Incorporating Natural

Catastrophes into Macroeconomic Projections. Disaster Prevention and Management 13: 337-342 Derwent, R., S. Stevenson, R. Doherty, W. Collins, M. Sanderson, C. Johnson, J. Cofala, R. Mechler, M.

Amann, F. Dentener (2004). The Contribution from Shipping Emissions to Air Quality and Acid Deposition in Europe. AMBIO 34: 54–59

Dentener, F., D. Stevenson, J. Cofala, R. Mechler, M. Amann, P. Bergamaschi, F. Raes, R. Derwent (2004). The impact of air pollutant and methane emission controls on tropospheric ozone and radiative forcing: CTM calculations for the period 1990-2030. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 4, 8471-8538

Werner, U., R. Mechler, T. Plapp (2003). Hochwasser 2002 - Wechselwirkungen zwischen der Finanzierung von Überschwemmungsschäden und der Wahrnehmung von Hochwasserrisiken. Zeitschrift für Versicherungswesen 54: 722-727

Books Amendola, A., Ermolieva, T., Linnerooth-Bayer, Mechler, R. (eds.) (2013). Integrated Catastrophe Risk

Modeling. Supporting Policy Processes. Springer, Heidelberg Mechler, R. (2004). Natural Disaster Risk Management and Financing Disaster Losses in Developing

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Countries, Verlag für Versicherungswirtschaft, Karlsruhe. Book chapters Mitchell, T., Mechler, R., Harris, K (2014). Economics of adaptation to extreme events. Book chapter.

In Markandya, A. Sainz de Murieta, E. Galarraga, I. Handbook on the Economics of Adaptation. Routledge.

Mechler, R., Hochrainer, S., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Pflug, G (2013). Public sector financial vulnerability to disasters: The IIASA CATSIM model. In; Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: Towards Disaster Resilient Societies, J Birkmann (ed.) United Nations University Press, Tokyo, Japan, pp.380-398

Mechler R. (2013). Modeling aggregate economic risk: an introduction. In Integrated Catastrophe Risk Modeling: Supporting Policy Processes, A. Amendola, T. Ermolieva, J. Linnerooth-Bayer, and R. Mechler Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 95-102

Mechler R, Hochrainer-Stigler S, Nakano K. (2013). Managing indirect economic consequences of disaster risk: the case of Nepal. In Integrated Catastrophe Risk Modeling: Supporting Policy Processes, A. Amendola, T. Ermolieva, J. Linnerooth-Bayer, and R. Mechler Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands pp.145-169

Amendola A, Ermolieva T, Linnerooth-Bayer J, Mechler R (2013). Catastrophe models for informing risk management: An introduction. In: Integrated Catastrophe Risk Modeling: Supporting Policy Processes, A. Amendola, T. Ermolieva, J. Linnerooth-Bayer, R. Mechler (eds) Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp.3-12

Hochrainer-Stigler S, Mechler R, Pflug G (2013). Modeling macro scale disaster risk: the CATSIM model. In Integrated Catastrophe Risk Modeling: Supporting Policy Processes, A. Amendola, T. Ermolieva, J. Linnerooth-Bayer, and R. Mechler (eds) Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands pp.119-144

Hochrainer, S. and Mechler, R. (2013). Assessing Financial Adaptation Strategies to Extreme Events in Europe. In: Siebenhüner, B., Arnold, M., Eisenack, K., and Jacob,H. K. (eds.): Long-Term Governance for Social-Ecological Change. New York, Routledge: 93-112.

Mechler, R. and Islam, N. (2013). Cost Benefit Analysis of Disaster Risk Management and Climate Adaptation in Bangladesh. In: D. Guha-Sapir and I. Santos. The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters. Assessing the Costs of Prevention, Mitigation and Adaptation, Cambridge University:

Mechler, R., Hochrainer, S., Aaheim, A., Kundzewicz, Z., Lugeri, N., Moriondo, M., Salen, H., Bindi, M., Banaszak, I., Chorynski, A., Genovese, E., Kalirai, H., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Lavalle, C., McEvoy, D., Matczak, P., Radziejewski, M., Rübbelke, D., Schelhaas, M.-J., Szwed, M., Wreford, A. (2010). A risk management approach for assessing adaptation to changing flood and drought risks in Europe. In: M. Hulme, H. Neufeldt (eds.). Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. Cambridge University: 200-229

Aaheim, A., Dokken, T., Hochrainer, S., Hof, A., Jochem, E., Mechler, R., van Vuuren, D., Neufeldt, H., Wei. T. (2010). National responsibilities for adaptation strategies: Lessons from four modelling frameworks. In: M. Hulme, H. Neufeldt (eds.). Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. Cambridge University: 87-112

van Vuuren, D, Isaac, M., Kundzewicz, Z., Arnell, N,Barker, T., Criqui, P., Bauer, N., Berkhout, F., Hilderink, H., Hinkel, J., Hochrainer, S., Hof , A., Kitous, A., Kram, T., Lugeri, N., Mechler, R., Scrieciu, S. (2010). Scenarios as the Basis for Assessment of Mitigation and Adaptation. In: M. Hulme, H. Neufeldt (eds.). Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. Cambridge University: 54-86

Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Mechler, R., Bals, C. (2010). Insurance Instruments for Adapting to Climate Risks. Considerations for the Bali Roadmap. In: M. Hulme, H. Neufeldt (eds.). Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. Cambridge University: 340-365 Hochrainer, S., Mechler, R. (2008). Assessing financial and economic

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vulnerability to natural hazards: bridging the gap between scientific assessment and the implementation of disaster risk management with the CatSim model. Patt, A., Schröter, D., Klein, R., de la Vega-Leinert, A. (eds). Assessing Vulnerability to Global Environmental Change. Earthscan.

Mechler, R., J. Linnerooth-Bayer, S. Hochrainer, G. Pflug (2006). Assessing Financial Vulnerability and Coping Capacity: The IIASA CATSIM Model. In J. Birkmann (ed.). Measuring Vulnerability and Coping Capacity to Hazards of Natural Origin. Concepts and Methods. United Nations University Press, Tokyo: 380-398

Mechler, R. (2004). Macroeconomic impacts of natural disasters. In K. Demeter, N.E. Erkan, A. Guner (eds). The Role of Local Governments in Reducing the Risk of Disasters. The World Bank Institute, Washington, DC: 35-47

Mechler, R. (2003). Natural Disaster Risk and Cost-Benefit Analysis. In A. Kreimer et al. (eds.). The Future of Disaster Risk: Building Safer Cities. World Bank, Washington DC: 45-56

Mechler, R. (2001). Naturkatastrophen und Globaler Wandel. in: W. Schulz et al. Lexikon Nachhaltiges Wirtschaften. R. Oldenbourg-Verlag, München: 253-259

Reports, working papers and conference proceedings Kumar, A., Arambepola, N,, Mechler, R., and Hochrainer-Stigler, S. (2012). An Approach for National

Earthquake Risk Assessment: Case Study for Nepal. Proceedings of the 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (WCEE), Lisbon, Portugal.

Mitchell, T., Mechler, R., Harris, K. (2012). Tackling exposure: placing disaster risk management at the heart of national economic and fiscal policy. CDKN guidance note. Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN)- Overseas Development Institute (ODI)

Bräuninger, M., Butzengeiger-Geyer, S., Dlugolecki, A., Hochrainer, S., Köhler,K., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Mechler, R., Michaelowa, A.,Schulze, S. (2011). Application of economic instruments for adaptation to climate change. Report to the European Commission, Directorate General CLIMA, Brussels.

Bhavnani Sharma, R., Hochrainer, S. and Mechler, R. (2010). Impact Assessment of Disaster Microinsurance for Pro-Poor Risk Management: Evidence from South Asia. All India Disaster Management Institute (AIDMI), Ahemadabad, Gujarat, India.

Mechler, R., Hochrainer, S., Pflug, G., Lotsch, A. with Williges, K. (2010). Assessing the Financial Vulnerability to Climate-Related Natural Hazards. Background Paper for the Development and Climate Change World Development Report 2010. Policy Research Working Paper 5232. World Bank, Washington, DC.

Mechler, R. (2009). Disasters and Economic Welfare. Can National Savings Help Explain Post-disaster Changes in Consumption? World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4988, The World Bank Sustainable Development Network and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery Unit.

Kunreuther, H., Michel-Kerjan, E., Hochrainer, S., Kull, D., Linnerooth-Bayer, J. Mechler, R., Muir-Wood, R., Ranger, N., Vaziri, P., Young, M. (2009). The Challenges and Importance of Investing in Cost Effective Measures for Reducing Losses From Natural Disasters in Emerging Economies. Report for the World Bank Global Faciility for Disaster Risk ReDuction (GFDRR).

Mechler, R., Hochrainer, S., Kull, D., Chopre, S., Singh, P., Opitz-Stapleton, S., Wajih, S. (2009). Uttar Pradesh Drought Cost-Benefit Analysis. Risk to Resilience Working Paper 5. Moench, M., Caspari, E. & A. Pokhrel (eds.), ISET, ISET-Nepal and ProVention, Kathmandu, Nepal. Provention Consortium, Geneva.

Moench, M., Ahmed, S., Mustafa, D., Khan, F., Mechler, R., Kull, D., Dixit, A., Opitz-Stapleton, S., and The Risk to Resilience Study Team (2009). Moving from Concepts to Practice: A Process and Methodology Summary for Identifying Effective Avenues for Risk Management Under Changing Climatic Conditions. From Risk to Resilience Working Paper No. 8. Moench, M., Caspari, E. & A. Pokhrel (eds.), ISET, ISET-Nepal and ProVention, Kathmandu, Nepal.

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Tanner, T., Hassan, A., Islam, K., Conway, D., Mechler, R., Ahmed, A. and Alam, M. (2007). ORCHID Piloting Climate Risk Screening in DFID Bangladesh. Detailed Research Report. Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, UK.

Tanner, T., Hassan, A., Islam, K., Conway, D., Mechler, R., Ahmed, A. and Alam, M. (2007). ORCHID: Piloting Climate Risk Screening in DFID Bangladesh. Summary Research Report. Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, UK.

Islam, K. and Mechler, R. (2007). ORCHID: Piloting Climate Risk Screening in DFID Bangladesh. An Economic and Cost Benefit Analysis of Adaptation Options. Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, UK

Mechler, R., J. Linnerooth-Bayer, and D. Peppiatt (2006). Microinsurance for natural disaster risks? Insights from a ProVention/IIASA research initiative. In S. Nicklin, B. Cornwell, and S. Fairbrother (eds.). Real Risk. Leicester, Tudor Rose: 41-42

Mechler, R. and J. Linnerooth-Bayer (2006). Potential Benefits and Limitations of Micro-Insurance as a Risk Transfer Mechanism for Developing Countries, in Micro-finance and disaster risk reduction. In P.G. Chakrabarti and M. Bhatt (eds.). New Delhi, Knowledge World: 219-225

Mechler, R., J. Linnerooth-Bayer with D. Peppiatt (2006). Disaster Insurance for the Poor? A ProVention/IIASA study. A review of microinsurance for natural disaster risks in developing countries. Provention consortium, Geneva.

Bals, C., Burton, I., Butzengeiger, S., Dlugolecki, A., Gurenko, E., Hoekstra, E., Höppe, P., Kumar, R., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Mechler, R., Warner, K. (2005). Insurance-related Options for Adaptation to Climate Change. Executive summary for report on occasion of UNFCCC COP meeting, Montreal, The Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII).

Mechler, R. (2009). From Risk to Resilience. The Cost-Benefit Analysis Methodology. From Risk to Resilience Working Paper No. 1. Moench, M., Caspari, E. & A. Pokhrel (eds.), ISET, ISET-Nepal and ProVention, Kathmandu, Nepal. Provention Consortium, Geneva.

Linnerooth-Bayer, J., C. Bals, R. Mechler (2008). Insurance Instruments for Adapting to Climate Risks. A Proposal for the Bali Action Plan. Germanwatch, Bonn.

Linnerooth-Bayer, J. and R. Mechler (2008). Insurance against Losses from Natural Disasters in Developing Countries. Background paper for United Nations World Economic and Social Survey (WESS).

Aaheim, A., Berkhout, F., McEvoy, D., Mechler, R., Neufeldt, H. Patt, A. Watkiss, P., Wreford,A., Kundzewicz, Z., Lavalle, C., Egenhofer, C. (2008). Adaptation to Climate Change: Why is it needed and how can it be implemented? Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) Policy Brief, Brussel.

Mechler, R., S. Hochrainer, K. Williges (2008). The special nature of natural disaster risk in Asian megacities. A case for megacity risk pooling? ADB conference “Natural Catastrophe Risk Insurance Mechanisms for Asia and the Pacific”. 04-05 November 2008, Tokyo, Japan

Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Bals, C. and Mechler, R. (2008).Climate Change: What Role for Insurance? IIASA Policy Brief #04, IIASA.

Aaheim, A., Berkhout, F., McEvoy, D., Mechler, R., Neufeldt, H. Patt, A. Watkiss, P., Wreford,A., Kundzewicz, Z., Lavalle, C., Egenhofer, C. (2008). Adaptation to Climate Change: Why is it needed and how can it be implemented? Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) Policy Brief, Brussel.

Hochrainer, S., Mechler, R., Pflug, G., Lotsch, A. (2008). Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on the Robustness of Index-based Microinsurance in Malawi. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4631. Development Research Group, The World Bank: Washington DC.

Moench, M., Mechler, R. and S. Stapleton (2007). Guidance Note on the Costs and Benefits of Disaster Risk Reduction. Prepared for UN - ISDR High Level Platform on Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva, June 4-7, 2007.

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Linnerooth-Bayer, J. and R. Mechler (2005). Financing Disaster Risks in developing and emerging-economy countries. Policy Issues in Insurance No. 08: Catastrophic Risks and Insurance. OECD, Paris: 105-162

Linnerooth-Bayer, J. and R. Mechler (2005). Insurance-related mechanisms for assisting developing countries adapt to Climate Change. In Bals, C., Burton, I., Butzengeiger, S., Dlugolecki, A., Gurenko, E., Hoekstra, E., Höppe, P. , Kumar, R., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Mechler, R., Warner, K. (2005). Insurance-related Options for Adaptation to Climate Change. Report on occasion of UNFCCC COP meeting, Montreal, The Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII): 38-58.

Hoeglund-Isaksson, L., R. Mechler (2005). The GAINS Model for Greenhouse Gases - Version 1.0: Methane (CH4). IIASA Interim Report. IIASA Interim Report IR-05-054 .

Mechler, R. (2005). Cost-benefit analysis of natural disaster risk management in developing countries. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ), Eschborn.

Mechler, R. and J. Weichselgartner (2003). Disaster Loss Financing in Germany – The Case of the Elbe River Floods 2002. Interim Report IR-03-021. IIASA, Laxenburg.

Linnerooth-Bayer, J. and R. Mechler (2003). Climate Change, Extreme Weather and Burden Sharing, Pro-active Strategies for Implementation of Article 4.8 of the UNFCCC, Background paper for UNDP SIDS workshop on Insurance and Climate-Related Extreme Weather Events, Milan.

Freeman, P., L. Martin, R. Mechler, K. Warner (2003). A Methodology for Incorporating Natural Catastrophes into Macroeconomic Projections. in: van der Veen, A., A. L. Vetere Arellano and J.-P. Nordvik (2003). Proceedings: Joint NEDIES and University of Twente Workshop - In search of a common methodology for damage estimation. Report EUR 20997 EN (2003), Bruxelles, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, European Union: 151-165.

Freeman, P. K., L. A. Martin, J. Linnerooth-Bayer, R. Mechler, G. Pflug and K. Warner (2003). Disaster Risk Management: National Systems for the Comprehensive Management of Disaster Risk and Financial Strategies for Natural Disaster Reconstruction. Inter-American Development Bank, Washington DC.

Mechler, R., M. Amann and W. Schoepp (2002). Methodology to Estimate Changes in Statistical Life Expectancy Due to the Control of Particulate Matter in Air Pollution. IIASA Interim Report IR-02-035.

Mechler, R., M. Amann and W. Schöpp (2002). Preliminary estimates of changes in statistical life expectancy due to the control of particulate matter air pollution in Europe. EMEP Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long Range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe. Transboundary Particulate Matter in Europe: Status report 2002. Kjeller, Norway: 61-89.

Obersteiner, M., C. Azar, S. Kossmeier, R. Mechler, K. Moellersten, S. Nilsson, K. Read, Y. Yamagata, J. Yan (2002). Managing Climate Risk, Interim Report IR-01-051. Laxenburg, Austria, IIASA.

Freeman, P., L. Martin, J. Linnerooth-Bayer, R. Mechler, S. Saldana, K. Warner and G. Pflug (2002). Financing Reconstruction. Phase II Background Study for the Inter-American Development Bank Regional Policy Dialogue on National Systems for Comprehensive Disaster Management. Inter-American Development Bank, Washington DC.

Freeman, P., L. Martin, R. Mechler, K. Warner with P. Hausman (2002). Catastrophes and Development, Integrating Natural Catastrophes into Development Planning, Disaster Risk Management Working Paper Series No. 4. World Bank, Washington DC.

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iiasa's contribution for the integrated disaster risk ... · government and its fiscal risk in...

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