IISS news September 2015

On 29 July, Madam Fu Ying, Chairperson of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People’s Congress of China, delivered the 22nd IISS–Fullerton Lecture: ‘Debating the Contemporary International Order’. Madam Fu’s starting point was an assessment of Henry Kissinger’s book World Order, which had prompted Chinese schol-ars to become involved in the debate over the potential impact of new powers – notably their own country – on the international order. Madam Fu highlighted that the key unanswered ques-tion is what sort of order the world wants in the

twenty-first century. Reviewing the foundations of Chinese foreign policy, which have been heav-ily influenced by the humiliations of the colonial period, she contrasted China’s current interna-tional standing with the continued existence of an ‘outmoded’ United States-dominated world order. Madam Fu warned that, in order to avoid an escalation in rivalry, the US and China should stop talking past one another and instead focus on shared interests and concerns. China wanted not to challenge the US, but rather to build a new global order in cooperation with the US. Echoing

President Xi Jinping’s calls for a ‘community of common interest’, Madam Fu advocated a more equitable and inclusive global order focused on development rather than power politics. She answered a range of questions from the large invited audience on China’s military capabili-ties, Beijing’s concerns over encirclement, UN Security Council reform, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and religious extremism and terrorism. Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS-Asia, chaired the event.

Watch the full event here.

IISS Fullerton Lectures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Middle East and the Gulf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Non-Proliferation and Disarmament . . . . . . . 4

Security and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Defence and Military Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

IISS–US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

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IISS–Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

IISS–Fullerton Lecture: Debating the Contemporary International Order

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Madam Fu Ying, Chairperson of the Foreign Affairs Committee, National People’s Congress of China

2 | SEPTEMBER 2015 IISS NEWS

On 20 July, India’s Foreign Secretary Dr S. Jaishankar, who had previously served as the Indian ambassador to both Beijing and Washington DC, delivered the 21st IISS–Fullerton Lecture: ‘India, the United States and China’. The Foreign Secretary began by noting the important foreign policy implications of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership

in India, particularly in terms of the ‘big shift’ in relations with neighbouring countries. Moreover, in the wake of President Obama’s visit to India on its Republic Day in January 2015 and the meeting between Modi and China’s President Xi Jinping in Xian during May, Dr Jaishankar suggested that the ‘interplay of India with the US and China is among the key factors

that will determine the strategic balance of Asia and beyond’. India welcomed ‘the growing real-ity of a multi-polar world’, he said. The Foreign Secretary echoed the consensus shared by many Asia-Pacific governments that they do not have to ‘choose sides’ between the US, the region’s dominant power, and China, the region’s rising power. He furthermore urged Asian states to move beyond ‘twentieth-century orthodoxies’ – a reference to the Cold War logic of two oppos-ing poles of influence. He argued that India and the US were finding many areas of common interest, while India’s relations with China – his-torically a rival – were more nuanced but no less significant. During Modi’s visit to China in May, Modi and Xi agreed that both countries were ‘major powers in the region and the world’. In conclusion, the Foreign Secretary argued that India was engaging the world with ‘greater confidence and assurance’. In his view, ‘shared power, if it works for all parties, will be at the heart of Asia’s emerging security architecture’. Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS-Asia, chaired the event.

Watch the full event here.

Dr S . Jaishankar, Foreign Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, India

IISS–Fullerton Lecture: India, the United States and China

FULLERTON LECTURESIISS–ASIA INDIA CHINA

Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga forces south of Kirkuk (Ali Mukarrem Garip/Anadolu/Getty)

The Future of Iraq and the Fight against ISIS

The US-led campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has probably only won back 10% of the Iraqi territory seized by the violent jihadists last year, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East Toby Dodge estimates.

Despite more than 4,000 US air-strikes over Iraq in the past 12 months, the roughly $10 million-a-day campaign had reached a stalemate, Dodge told an Arundel House discussion meeting on 17 September. He explained that, while there was optimism in the Pentagon and the Iraqi military after the recapture of Tikrit in early April 2015, government efforts since July to retake Ramadi, west of Baghdad, had floundered.

Dodge believed the continued resilience of ISIS demonstrated that it was a violent symptom of much larger structural problems plaguing Iraq at least since the US invasion and regime change in 2003. These, he explained, were largely political and sectarian. ‘For Iraq to be brought back together, it is these political problems that need to be solved,’ he said.

He welcomed the replacement of the authoritarian Nuri al-Maliki with Haider al-Abadi as prime minister in August 2014, as well as Abadi’s attempts to reform the judiciary, fight corruption and end the sectarian muhasasa division of government. He emphasised, however, that Abadi

remained in a very weak position. While most citizens still backed a uni-tary Iraq, arguments for partition were growing in both Sunni and Shia communities.

In the Q&A session, Dodge answered questions on whether former US president George W. Bush or his successor, Barack Obama, ‘lost’ Iraq; whether Islamic State really was a ‘state’; and how the Iran nuclear deal could impact regional security. The meeting was chaired by Dr Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for Transatlantic Security and the Editor of Survival: Global Politics and Strategy.

You can see view the discussion here.

MIDDLE EAST AND THE GULF EXPERTSISLAMIC STATEIRAQ

IISS NEWS SEPTEMBER 2015 | 3

Press Launch – Strategic Survey 2015: The Annual Review of World AffairsThe press launch of Strategic Survey 2015: The Annual Review of World Affairs took place on 15 September at Arundel House. The book covers a year in which the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham became a major concern for governments across the world, an Ebola outbreak swept across West Africa, the United States and Cuba moved towards detente, European unity was shaken by a debt crisis in Greece and an international deal to curb Iran’s nuclear programme was reached. A significant theme of the year was the prolif-eration of threats to the international rules-based order favoured by the West.

Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive, said in his press statement that ‘“rule breaking” is not being effectively deterred. Facts on the ground, sea, air and in cyberspace are being created that confront, rather than reinforce, established norms.’ He added that ‘there are now more exporters of insecurity than exporters of strategic stability, and so Strategic Survey 2015 concludes that strategic unease will persist for some time’.

As well as detailed chapters on each region and the opening ‘Perspectives’ and closing ‘Prospectives’ sections, the book includes essays on the fall in the oil price, Russia’s military reforms and international efforts to mitigate climate change. These are complemented by a

section on ‘Drivers of Strategic Change’, setting out the key events and trends shaping the poli-tics and security of each region. The ‘Strategic Geography’ chapter includes maps of the flow of migrants across the Mediterranean, China’s growing foreign investments and the challenges facing Nigeria’s new president. The book also

contains a chronology of the year’s key events.Journalists’ questions were answered by a

panel made up of John Chipman, Nigel Inkster, Mark Fitzpatrick, Emile Hokayem and Samuel Charap.

Watch a video of the press launch and read the press statement here.

IISS experts speak to the press following the launch

RUSSIA AND EURASIAEUROPEAFRICA MIDDLE EAST

Introducing Strategic Survey 2015

In a short video, IISS experts who have con-tributed to Strategic Survey 2015 explain what’s contained in the think tank’s annual review of world affairs.

Strategic Survey 2015: The Annual Review of World Affairs assesses the events and themes of

the year, region by region. It includes essays that ana-lyse the changes in the oil price, Russia’s efforts at military moderni-sation, and global moves to combat climate change. The Strategic Geography section includes maps on

the flow of migrants across the Mediterranean, the outbreak of the Ebola virus in Africa, and China’s external investment. The book con-tains a chronology of key events around the world.

You can see the video here.

You can buy Strategic Survey 2015 here, as well as browse chapter summaries, see free content and download the list of con-tents.

EVENTS

4 | SEPTEMBER 2015 IISS NEWS

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini during the talks in Vienna, Austria (EEAS/AFP/Samuel Kubani)

Federica Mogherini, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy; Donald Tusk, European Council President; Hassan Rouhani, President of Iran; and Mohammad Zarif, Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs at the UN, September 2015 (EEAS)

Nuclear power plant at Zhejiang, China (Atomic Energy of Canada)

Assessing the (Presumptive) Iran Nuclear Deal

On 10 July, the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme held a discussion meeting at Arundel House in anticipation of the final agree-ment between Iran and the E3+3 on the nuclear issue. While the 9 July deadline was postponed at the last minute, the event served as a good opportunity to assess the negotiation process thus far. Programme Director Mark Fitzpatrick analysed the prospective solutions in three areas which remained contentious until the very last moment: sanctions relief; verification measures, including the so-called possible military dimensions (PMD) of Iran’s past nuclear work; and limits on research and development. He remained optimistic that an agreement would ulti-mately be reached – a prediction that was proven accurate just four days later. Watch the discussion on the IISS website.

After the Iran Nuclear DealOn 29 July, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme Director Mark Fitzpatrick joined Senior Fellow for Middle East Security Emile Hokayem for a webinar on the potential impact of an Iran nuclear deal. The conversation focused on the nuclear-related aspects of the agreement and the likely timetable for sanctions relief, as well as the probable impact of the deal on regional security in the Middle East.

On the nuclear side, Fitzpatrick highlighted the significant achieve-ments of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in constricting Iran’s nuclear programme, effectively blocking both its uranium and plutonium pathways to a bomb. He dubbed it a ‘Lausanne Plus’ for improving on the framework agreement reached in April. He added that the deal strengthens the global nuclear non-proliferation regime as a whole, but that there are still several ways in which it could fall apart in the coming years.

Hokayem, in turn, analysed the reactions of the Gulf States to the deal, concluding that their responses will ultimately be more important than the deal itself for regional stability. He suggested the nuclear issue was never at the forefront of regional concerns and that the deal will thus not be judged on its merits. Domestic politics in Iran, too, will play a significant

role in how the regional relationships develop. As Hokayem predicted, there is likely to be a lot of brinksmanship in this context, particularly from Saudi Arabia. Access the webinar here.

NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT IRAN

UK–China Nuclear Security On 28 July, Arundel House held a workshop in partnership with the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), designed to strengthen coopera-tion between Chinese and Western experts on nuclear issues. Building on a tradition of close engagement with Chinese experts at previous work-shops, this meeting considered China’s domestic civil nuclear programme and associated fuel-cycle policies, as well as its broader role in global nuclear governance. It attracted more than 20 specialists from China, France, the United Kingdom and the United States, updating them on the current developments regarding Sino–UK civil nuclear cooperation. Read the full workshop report.

NON-PROLIFERATION

IISS NEWS SEPTEMBER 2015 | 5

Mexican military police (antefixus U .E ./Flickr)

Rocinha favela, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (Stephen White/Flickr)

Violence, Organised Crime and Mexico’s Search for a Strategy

Following several cases of human-rights violations and high-profile armed clashes linked to criminal activity in Mexico, on 2 September Arundel House hosted two experienced analysts to discuss security policies there: Dr Raúl Benítez-Manaut, a professor at the National University of Mexico (UNAM) and Guadalupe González, professor in the Department of International Studies at the Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económica (CIDE). González provided a historical context for Mexico’s criminal violence, saying that Mexican authorities in the 1980s and 1990s were unprepared for the rise of criminality linked to the transnational cocaine trade. The response so far has been marked by an armed strategy involving police and military forces. Policymakers, she said, have failed to formulate a coherent security strategy that goes beyond this punitive approach.

Benítez-Manaut highlighted the fragmentation of the drug cartels during the 2000s in response to increased government pressure, ulti-mately resulting in more violence. He also mentioned the recent arrival of two different types of drugs in Mexico: methamphetamines and heroine, the consumption of both of which is increasing in the US. The meeting was chaired by Antônio Sampaio, Research Associate for Security and Development at the IISS.

Urban Warfare in the ‘Marvellous City’: Securing Rio from the Gangs

As part of the Security and Development Programme’s research activi-ties on urban issues, Arundel House hosted a discussion meeting on 9 July on Rio de Janeiro’s pacification strategy. Speakers included Antônio Sampaio, Research Associate for Security and Development at the IISS, and Christoph Harig, Doctoral Researcher at the Brazil Institute of King’s College, London. Nigel Inkster, IISS Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk, chaired the event.

Sampaio and Harig analysed the recent increase in criminal attacks in Rio, just as the mega-city is preparing to host the 2016 Summer Olympic Games. Sampaio highlighted the role of Rio’s Military Police and their repressive strategic posture based on urban warfare tactics. He noted that, while the pacification programme presents a break from the past by attempting to combine police presence with development initiatives, authorities are facing difficulties transitioning to a truly accountable and community-based policing model.

Harig focused on the role of the armed forces in securing the most unstable slums in Rio and performing internal law-enforcement duties. The military is deployed, he said, when police forces are considered insuf-ficient to stabilise areas facing heavy firepower by criminal groups. He highlighted the labour-intensive nature of the urban pacification pro-gramme and the strain it places on the state. Listen to the event on the IISS website.

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENTEXPERTS ORGANISED CRIME MEXICOBRAZIL

Survival: Global Politics and StrategyIn the October–November 2015 issue of Survival, Avis Bohlen, Mark Fitzpatrick, Michael Hanna, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Thomas Moore and Bruno Tertrais discuss the ramifications of the Iranian nuclear deal and the extent of Iran’s regional influence; William Walker and Erik Jones examine dilemmas of nationalism and disunion in Europe; Lawrence Freedman explores the art of exhaustion in strategy; Elinor Sloan out-lines the role of robotics at war; Peter Dombrowski and Simon Reich sketch out the strategy of ‘sponsorship’; Christopher Fettweis identifies symptoms of misreading the enemy; Ben Fishman and Alexa van Sickle contribute review essays on Libya and Cuba; Teresita Schaffer, H.R. McMaster, Pierre Hassner and Ray Takeyh contribute book reviews; and Matthew Harries outlines the challenge for Labour under Jeremy Corbyn.

AppointmentsThe IISS welcomes the following:

Jennifer GoldenIISS-US Managing Director

Emily WerkSpecial Projects Consultant, IISS-US

Erika MaOperations Administrator, IISS-US

Caitlin VitoResearch Events Administrator

Bonnie BleyEditorial Assistant, Online

6 | SEPTEMBER 2015 IISS NEWS

A meeting of the Pakistan National Command Authority, 9 September 2015 (ISPR)

A Digital India event in San Jose, California, September 2015

Bangladeshi refugees in Arakan, Bangladesh (kisa kuyruk/Shutterstock)

Nuclear Security in PakistanOn 7 July, IISS Visiting Fellow Air Commodore Dr Adil Sultan spoke off the record to IISS members on Pakistan’s commitment to ensuring the security of its civil and nuclear programme.

Sultan, also Director of Research and Analysis at the Policy, Doctrine & Strategy Branch of Pakistan’s National Command Authority’s Strategic Plans Division, stated that Pakistan considers itself a responsible nuclear state. He explained that the country’s programme was created in 1955 – mainly to ensure access to nuclear energy for peaceful uses – and that since 1998, Pakistan has maintained a credible nuclear deterrent with a modest civil infrastructure.

Today, Sultan noted, Pakistan’s Centre of Excellence for Nuclear Security works with the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA), providing training courses to enhance physical protection, material control and personal reliability at installations. The country also plays a proactive role in global nuclear governance, including contributing to the fourth

Nuclear Security Summit in Washington DC next year. Furthermore, Sultan added, Pakistan has a strongly institutionalised domestic policy and accompanying regulatory frameworks that guarantee the security of its nuclear enterprise.

The event was chaired by Antoine Levesques, IISS Research Associate for South Asia.

Bangladesh and the UK: Countering religious radicalisation and extremism

Bangladesh is a tinderbox, waiting to explode: that was the starkest mes-sage to emerge from a recent panel with the University of Dhaka’s Abul Barkat. Eight secular bloggers have been brutally murdered in Bangladesh since 2013, and some 123 militant Islamist organisations operate in the country. At the event, held at Arundel House, Professor Barkat said dete-riorating socio-economic conditions had spurred increasingly politicised religious identities.

Widespread poverty, he explained, provided fertile ground for radicali-sation. Moreover, added Barkat, mainstream Islamist party Jamat-e-Islami Bangladesh threatened to institutionalise religious fundamentalism through its connections within politics, the judiciary, education, health and the NGO community. Barkat proposed swift ‘risk reduction’ and ‘damage minimisation’ through measures such as third-party audits to uncover links to extremists or confiscation of fundamentalist groups’ financial assets.

The other panel speaker, IISS Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk Nigel Inkster, noted that individuals in Britain were often involved in facilitating extremist acts in Bangladesh. Barkat said the UK government could assist Bangladesh by sponsoring deradicalisation pro-grammes and supporting broader poverty-reduction measures.

Watch the event, chaired by IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, here.

EXPERTSPAKISTAN BANGLADESHSOUTH ASIA

Governance in India: New Challenges and OpportunitiesOn 13 July Ajit Seth, former Indian Cabinet Secretary, spoke at Arundel House of his work assisting the smooth transition of government after the 2014 landslide victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party, advising Prime Minister Narendra Modi on major policies. With India’s GDP growing at 7.3%, Modi has the opportunity to make transformational changes to Indians’ lives. He is leveraging India’s large youthful workforce as ‘human capital’ by providing it with new opportunities, through headline-grabbing policy campaigns, to ‘clean India’, ‘Make in India’ and promote ‘Digital India’. Early successes include broadening Indians’ access to banking. Modi’s reformist ambitions will be tested over the passage of a contro-versial land acquisition law, labour market up-skilling and agricultural reform. As Indians expect to benefit from growth, Seth was confident Modi

has a detailed plan to help meet these expectations with better governance.Listen to the full event here.

INDIA

IISS NEWS SEPTEMBER 2015 | 7

Narendra Modi in New York City, 2014

Shifts and Changes in India’s Foreign and Security Policy Under Modi

India’s diplomacy has undergone one significant change and six key shifts during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first 14 months in office, said IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury at an Arundel House event on 23 July.

The most obvious change, he explained, relates to the style and image of India’s diplomacy. Modi’s interactions with foreign leaders are highly personalised, and the prime minister has also deliberately sought to con-nect with the young and the Indian diaspora on his visits abroad. All of this has served to raise India’s global profile and has translated into a more assertive and confident Indian diplomacy.

In practical terms, Roy-Chaudhury explained, six key shifts are taking place. Firstly, India now aspires to become a ‘leading’ rather than just a ‘balancing’ power, taking on a greater global role. Furthermore, Modi is willing to form a combined front with the US on Asia-Pacific security in relation to an assertive China. India is also seeking stronger trade and investment links with China, despite maintaining a firm stance on political issues. India’s position towards Pakistan is hardening, following a recent

deterioration in relations between the two countries. India is also seeking a more proactive role in the Indian Ocean. In March 2015, Modi unveiled an Indian Ocean strategy, the first presented by an Indian prime minis-ter in decades. Finally, Roy-Chaudhury said that India is in the process of abandoning its traditional support for Palestine in favour of backing Israel.

Watch the full event, chaired by IISS Director of Editorial Dr Nicholas Redman, on the IISS website.

SOUTH ASIA

Special Offer: Strategic Survey 2015 and Armed Conflict Survey 2015

For a limited time, receive both Strategic Survey 2015 and the new IISS publication Armed Conflict Survey at a 30% discount.

About Strategic Survey: Strategic Survey 2015: The Annual Review of World Affairs assesses the events and themes of the year, region by region. It includes essays that analyse the changes in the oil price, Russia’s efforts at military modernisation, and global moves to combat climate change. The Strategic Geography section features maps on the flow of migrants across the Mediterranean, the outbreak

of the Ebola virus in Africa, and China’s external investment. The book contains a chronology of key global events and a section on drivers of strategic change around the world.

About the Armed Conflict Survey:The Armed Conflict Survey (ACS) is a new annual publication that provides yearly data on fatalities, refugees and internally displaced people for all major armed conflicts, alongside in-depth analysis of their political, military and humanitarian dimensions. The first edition of the book covers the key developments and con-text of more than 40 conflicts, including those in Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Iraq, Myanmar, Syria and Yemen.

The authors discuss the principal thematic

and crossregional trends that have emerged over the past year, complementing the granular approach to each conflict at the core of the book. The ACS also includes maps, infographics and multi-year data, as well as the highly regarded IISS Chart of Conflict.

You can find details of the offer here.

PUBLICATIONS

FOREIGN POLICYINDIA

IISS Oppenheimer Lecture 2015On the tenth anniversary of the IISS Oppenheimer Lecture, Advocate Thuli Madonsela, Public Protector of South Africa, will examine the role of justice and good governance in regional and international peace, at Arundel House, London on Wednesday 14 October 2015. You can find further details here.

Watch a brief video of highlights of the Oppenheimer Lecture series.

8 | SEPTEMBER 2015 IISS NEWS

Typhoons at RAF Coningsby, Lincolnshire

USS Freedom during an exercise in the South China Sea (US Navy/Cassandra Thompson)

An Iraqi army soldier during training with US soldiers in Iraq (USAF/James Richardson)

UK Strategic Defence and Security Review – IISS Contributions

The UK Conservative government is conducting a Strategic Defence and Security Review. This is against a background of reductions in the UK’s armed forces arising from the 2010 review, whilst the threats to the UK, Europe and the rules-based international order have significantly increased, not least as a result of the rise of ISIS and Russia’s annexation of the Crimea.

IISS experts have contributed by engaging the UK Ministry of Defence and Cabinet Office – the central co-ordination machinery of government. The Institute also organised two events at Arundel House to highlight the key issues for the review, each stimulating much debate amongst large audiences.

The first, held on 18 May, saw a panel of IISS staff share their analysis, covering topics that included the risk from terrorism, the UK defence budget, cyber, maritime, land and aerospace issues. The second event, on 16 July, brought together a panel of distinguished former senior UK

defence political and military leaders. Those giving their perspectives were George Robertson, former UK Defence Secretary and Secretary-General of NATO, Liam Fox, former UK Defence Secretary, and General Lord David Richards, former UK Chief of the General Staff and Chief of the Defence Staff. All three had conducted previous defence reviews and shared their practical experience of strategic leadership of UK defence.

Sea Change: New Maritime Horizons in a Changing World

Nick Childs, the Institute’s new Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security, made his public debut on 20 July at Arundel House with an inaugural talk on the extent to which the world faces a new strategic maritime moment, examining the emerging challenges in the South and East China Seas, the Mediterranean, the High North and the Gulf of Guinea.

He discussed how globalisation and the rise of Asia – a predominantly maritime theatre – have led to more congestion and contestation at sea, as well as the rise of new naval powers that will increasingly be the arbiters of maritime events and developments.

His talk furthermore considered how these shifts affect the utility of conventional naval forces and traditional sea power, and whether new thinking is required on what constitutes security at sea and how it may be maintained.

The audience’s questions investigated the prospects for European maritime capabilities, the significance of new naval alliances, and solutions for the increasing general lawlessness at sea. The meeting was chaired by the Director of the Defence and Military Analysis Programme, Dr Bastian Giegerich.

Thinking about Future Armed Conflict

On 1 July Lieutenant-General H.R. McMaster, Director of the US Army Capabilities Integration Center, Deputy Commanding General of the Futures Center at US Army Training and Doctrine Command and IISS Senior Fellow, briefed IISS staff and corporate members on strategic trends in con-temporary conflict and international security, assessing their implications for the future of warfare. There was a wide-ranging and frank discussion about the challenge of identifying the character of future conflict on land, as well as continuities and changes that are likely over the next decade. The event was chaired by Brigadier Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare.

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS EXPERTSDEFENCE ECONOMICS TERRORISM AND SECURITY

IISS NEWS SEPTEMBER 2015 | 9

CYBER SECURITY

IISS–USEXPERTS

IISS-US Book Launch: China’s Strong Arm

The IISS-US hosted the US launch of China’s Strong Arm: Protecting Citizens and Assets Abroad in Washington, DC, in July. Speakers at the event included Jonas Parello-Plesner, co-author of China’s Strong Arm and head of the Foreign Policy Department at the Embassy of Denmark in Washington, DC, and Yun Sun, Senior Associate for East Asia at the Stimson Center. Parello-Plesner began by outlining the salient hypothesis of China’s Strong Arm, arguing that China has increased its capacity to protect its nationals and assets abroad in what may be deemed a relatively new development in Chinese foreign policy.

‘In 2011, China rescued more than 47,000 Chinese abroad. That’s more in a single year than in the previous decade,’ Parello-Plesner stated. Sun contended that Beijing’s ability to protect nationals abroad plays a direct role in promoting the legitimacy of the government domestically.

Both speakers discussed the long-term implications for Chinese foreign policy as China’s need to protect overseas assets increases.

Watch the full discussion here.

Two Unforeseen Wars: A Military Analysis of the Conflict in Ukraine and the Campaign against ISIS

Both the insurgency in eastern Ukraine and the rapid conquest of much of northern and western Iraq by ISIS came as strategic shocks. Speaking at an IISS–US event on 7 July, Brigadier Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare at IISS, examined the similarities and differences between both con-flicts, presenting his assessment of the military dynamics and discussing the emerging challenges that they pose for the US, NATO and their allies.

His conclusion revealed that both conflicts show leadership can act as a multiplier to military effectiveness, while corruption and nepotism erode military capability. He furthermore found that combined arms, artillery and indirect fire have returned as major factors in contemporary warfare, stating ‘we may be seeing a reversion to historic combined arms warfare’.

‘Artillery is back, and it’s back with a vengeance,’ he said.Watch the full event here.

Chinese citizens evacuated from Libya in 2011 (STR/AFP/Getty)

CHINAISLAMIC STATE UKRAINE FOREIGN POLICY

Ukrainian armoured vehicles during a NATO exercise (NATO)

Cyber Governance and Security: the Struggle for the Soul of the Future

Speaking at Arundel House on 22 July, Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, said that the issues of global cyber governance and cyber security seemed remote and arcane to ordi-nary internet users, most of whom thought about security only in terms of how to protect themselves against cyber criminality.

However, cyber governance and security have become a major bat-tle-ground between two ideological camps: the so-called ‘like-minded’ consisting of the US and its allies who stood for a continuation of the multi-stakeholder model of internet governance and the free flow of information on-line; and the authoritarian states led by China and Russia who, while not rejecting the multi-stakeholder concept, argued for a governance model centred on the United Nations giving governments a much greater say in governance issues. The latter, who see the internet as a vector for subver-

sion that challenges their authority, also argue for the application of tra-ditional concepts of state sovereignty in the cyber domain and seek interna-tional recognition for the right of states to monitor and filter content.

The international debate has been complicated by the revelations of Edward Snowden about the collection activities of NSA and by Sino-US tensions over alleged Chinese state-sponsored industrial cyber espionage. China in particular is looking to use its influence as the world’s largest user community, its economic influence as the world’s fastest growing market for digital goods and services and the influence it derives from the fact that Chinese national champions ZTE and Huawei are connecting the next two billion users to the Internet, to shape a global cyber environment that conforms to its interests. The long-term implications of this are unclear but possible outcomes include internet fragmentation if Western states find China’s exercise of cyber power unacceptable, or a more constrained and limiting global cyber environment

MEMBERSHIP

10 | SEPTEMBER 2015 IISS NEWS

MEMBERSHIP

Cold wars, hot wars

On 15 September Arundel House hosted the first special seminar from a series of events looking at the interplay between geopolitics and busi-ness. We were delighted to be joined by IISS corporate partners and other experts from the business world for the occasion, which included both off-the-record and on-the-record sessions.

Guest speaker Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles, Group Head of Government Affairs for HSBC, spoke frankly and off the record of the need for engaged corporate foreign policy. IISS corporate partners shared their own insights of how they had used geopolitical foresight when planning whether to enter new markets, or to better understand the dynamics of the countries in which they operated.

In the first panel, IISS experts analysed the changing dynamics of power in three strategically crucial regions – the Asia-Pacific, the Gulf and wider Middle East, and Russia/Europe – providing their own assessments on the drivers, direction and cross-linkages of three regional ‘cold’ wars.

The second panel looked at the changing nature of conflict, from the use of proxies to the use of sanctions and other economic tools to pursue geopolitical goals – the latter being a clear example of where inter-state rivalry can affect commerce and investments.

Watch both panel discussions here.

Members’ Launch of the Armed Conflict Survey

The character of conflict is changing: fewer, but deadlier, wars around the world, a shift in global jihadism as Islamists aim to control territory, and the growing involvement of organised criminals in civil conflicts. The Members’ Launch of the Armed Conflict Survey, held on 15 July at Arundel House, brought together a panel of experts to explain these and other shifts.

There were some 70 active conflicts in 2001 when the IISS began recording conflict data in its Armed Conflict Database, the basis for much of the ACS, said Nigel Inkster, the book’s editor and IISS Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk. In 2014, by contrast, there were 42 wars. But, Inkster added, this decrease had been accompanied by an increase in conflict intensity.

Dr Alia Brahimi, Visiting Research Fellow at Oxford University and ACS contributor, discussed the surge of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) across the Middle East in 2014; with its declaration of a caliphate across Iraqi and Syrian territory, the group has clearly signalled a move towards state-building.

Brigadier Ben Barry predicted that the war against ISIS was going to continue ‘for some time’. The group was benefitting from a large numbers of foreign fighters, with as many as 2,700 Westerners joining its ranks.

Watch our experts speaking at the launch here

The Middle East after the Iran Nuclear Deal

On 11 September Arundel House hosted a corporate breakfast examining the regional ramifications of the Iran nuclear deal.

Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, discussed how Gulf States have cautiously welcomed the deal, while the Western world is hoping that it can lead to diplomatic and economic openings.

Yet Iran’s conduct in the regional arena continues to raise concern, and the potential for escalation among the various players in the Middle East is high. Participants discussed how much will depend on the implementa-tion of the deal, Iran’s internal dynamics, the role of external players in both reassuring and restraining their regional allies and on the calculations of local actors in Iran’s neighbouring states, including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.

The UK and EU – Making the Most of an Awkward Partnership

Speaking at Arundel House on 15 July, the Lord Garel-Jones explained why recent developments in the UK’s ‘awkward’ partnership with the EU might be cause for cautious optimism.

Offering some background on the relationship, Lord Garel-Jones explained that when the UK joined the EU’s predecessor, the European Economic Community (ECC), in 1973, it was in a considerably stronger post-war position than its continental counterparts. This, he noted, has had lasting effects on the UK’s willingness to integrate.

Today, however – despite the somewhat contentious nature of the UK–EU relationship – polls indicate a consistent loyalty towards Europe among the British population. Moreover, the Lord Garel-Jones explained, a ‘no’ vote in the promised referendum on remaining in the EU would be extremely risky, endangering 50% of all UK exports. He argued that if UK Prime Minister Cameron negotiates a promising proposal for restructured EU membership, most parties (with the exception of UKIP) will be cam-paigning for a ‘yes’ in 2016.

Taking this positive outlook one step further, the Lord Garel-Jones sug-gested that the UK’s uniquely ‘awkward’ position may allow it to play a beneficial role in facilitating the Union’s progression. He explained that many hoped the UK would help mediate between Brussels and the numerous anti-EU parties gaining momentum across Europe.

Concluding his presentation, the Lord Garel-Jones maintained that a ‘Brexit’ was unlikely, but acknowledged the lingering uncertainties sur-rounding the EU’s openness to progressive change.

Watch the event on the IISS website.

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Tehran, Iran (Ninara/Flickr)

A refugee camp in Iraqi Kurdistan (EU/ECHO/Caroline Gluck)

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Syrian forces clash with ISIS near Aleppo, Syria (Huseyin Nasir/Anadolu/Getty)

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi

People queue at a closed bank in Athens, Greece, July 2015 (dimitris_k/Shutterstock)

Manama Dialogue Ambassador Round Table Preparatory Meeting

On 9 September, the IISS-Middle East held a preparatory meeting ahead of the 11th IISS Manama Dialogue. The seminar brought together senior officials and diplomats from 35 nations and the Kingdom of Bahrain. It served as an opportunity to brief attendees on the organisation of the con-ference and to explore the themes that will be examined in depth during the Manama Dialogue.

Participants attended two consecutive sessions on the Middle East after the Iran deal and the containment of ISIS, chaired by IISS-Middle East Executive Director Sir John Jenkins and Senior Fellow for Regional Security Emile Hokayem.

‘The topics covered are integral to the agenda and discussions of the sessions in this year’s Manama Dialogue’, said Sir John, adding that the issues are of ‘regional and global significance and concern, and this pre-paratory meeting helps officials and IISS experts observe perspectives and expectations related to issues of the hour, forecasting session tones that are widely anticipated.’

The Manama Dialogue Regional Security Summit will open on 30 October and will include an international official presence of the highest level.

Read more about the upcoming Manama Dialogue here

A New Era of GCC Geo-Economic Opportunity with China and India

On 27 July, the IISS-Middle East held a workshop entitled ‘A New Era of GCC Geo-Economic Opportunity with China and India’. Bringing together speakers from the Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC), China and India, the workshop covered how the rise of India and China as global economic powers provides an opportunity for GCC economies to increase their global investment outreach. Participants also discussed the chal-lenges that face investors seeking new opportunities in unfamiliar regions.

Commenting on the event, IISS Director for Geo-Economics and Strategy Sanjaya Baru said, ‘China and India have longstanding relations with GCC countries and trade is growing in this region. Looking forward, it is important to build upon the existing cooperation between GCC, China and India as well as address the challenges that are present.’

IISS-Middle East Managing Director Katadah Zaman added, ‘This workshop brought together a diverse group of international business leaders, public sector representatives and geo-economics experts. The IISS-Middle East has been facilitating discussion between decision-makers, policy analysts and business leaders in order to address issues relevant to the GCC economies.’

Watch the full workshop here

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Europe after the Greek debacle Erik Jones, Professor of European Studies and International Political Econ-omy at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), discussed the impact of the Greek crisis on Europe as a whole at Arundel House on 22 July. The meeting occurred in the wake of the agreement between Greece and its European partners to avoid a potential default and fracturing of the eurozone.

Jones argued that, unlike all previous EU crises, the situation in Greece has not been contained in a single policy sphere. Uniquely, he explained, the event has contaminated other areas of integration and has resulted in the isolation of member states. The response of European institutions and member states to the crisis was predictable, Jones suggested, and reflected their own interests in a manner that was likely to be counterproductive.

Jones concluded that policymakers now faced a dual challenge: to think about the European project differently, in order to enhance resilience and

sustainability; and to communicate a new vision in a clear, compelling way in order to gain the support of EU states and citizens.

Listen to the event, chaired by IISS Director of Editorial Nicholas Redman, here.

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