ijms 40(4) (research report)

8/11/2019 IJMS 40(4) (Research Report)

1/4

Indian Journal of Geo-Marine SciencesVol. 40(4), August 2011, pp. 483-486

Research report

Climate change impact A novel, initiative for Kerala

Climate Change is the greatest ecological, economicand social challenge of our time

Earths Climate is undergoing noteworthy naturalchanges for centuries. However the variations in the lastcouple of centuries cannot be explained by naturalclimatic variations alone. Inter-governmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) had observed that this is due toglobal warming. The increase in global average

temperature is due to the observed increase inanthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.Anthropogenic climate change has a significant role onphysical and biological systems all over the globe. In thelast centuary the global average surface temperature hasrisen by 0.74oC. A few degree change in temperaturecan attribute marked difference in global environment.During the last interglacial the Polar Regions were 3 to5C warmer than today. The Sea Levels at that timewere 4 to 6 M higher than the present. The sea level risewas 1.7 mm during the period 1870 to 1993. Whereasduring the year 1993-2007 the average rise in sea level

per year is 3.4 mm. Warming of the Oceans and meltingof ice are expected to lead to continued sea level riseof 18 to 79 cm in this century. Inter-governmental panelon climate change has estimated a sea level rise of 21 to71 cm in the year 2070 due to thermal expansion ofOceans as well as melting of glacier. This will havewidespread effects on coastal zone and natural coastalprotective mechanisms.

Since the last little ice age, there is an invasion ofcoastline towards land at the rate of 1 KM percentury. Apart from the above natural process coastalzone is under tremendous pressure due to accelerated

sea level rise (anthropogenic impact) and otherinvasions due to natural process. According to thereport of UNEP benefits from marine and coastalecosystem and other activities viz. coastal tourism,trade and shipping, offshore oil and gas and fisheriesamounts to more than US $ 500 billion per year.UNEP report states that the estimated global averageof Marine Biomes from per hectare estuary per year ismore than 20,000 US $, mangrove/tidal marshes ismore than 8000 US $, sea grass/algal bed is more than16,000 US $ and coral reefs is more than 4000 US $.

The ocean and coastal areas influence all sectors ofthe global economy. It is the only source of proteinfor 1-2 billion people. The human presence, influenceand activity have reached in every parts of the ocean.The growing contributions of human generatedemissions as a by-product of industrialization areresponsible for forcing the greenhouse effect. Theglobal warming due to greenhouse gas is triggering

and further accelerating the amplitude of climatevariability and rate of climate change. This will causeincreasing pressure on the ability of ecosystems andhuman society to adapt with the changing climatescenarios. The trend in greenhouse gas emissions forthe next few decades will have a significant influenceon climate by 2050 and beyond.

The security of coastal population is at risk due tothe sea level rise and increased intensity and frequencyof storms. The greenhouse effect on the impact ofhydrological cycle will cause increasing scarcity offresh water in the coastal region. The climate change

will have a variety of impacts on agriculture, humanhealth, biodiversity, coastal areas and water stress,which will vary from region to region. A preliminaryassessment of expected regional impacts in Asia, basedon Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), published during the year 2007 states that

(i) In parts of Asia, crop yield will decreasebetween 2.5 to 10% by the year 2020s and 5 to 30% in2050s; (ii) 120 million to 1200 million peopleexperience increased water stress by 2020s and 185million to 981 million people by 2050s; (iii) predictedsignificant sea level rise results in greater risk of

flooding and sea water intrusion, loss of coral reefsestimated at 24% in the next ten years and 30% withinthirty years; (iv) increase in coastal water temperaturescould lead to causes of cholera in South Asia, increasein mortality caused by diarrhoea disease in East, Southand SouthEast Asia; (v) within next 20-30 years,glacier melt in Himalayas will lead to increasedflooding and avalanches and reduced river flows andincreased extinction rates.

Asia will be particularly vulnerable to the climatechange, because of its concentration of major


2/4

INDIAN J. MAR. SCI., VOL. 40, NO. 4, AUGUST 2011484

population centers at low elevations. Mumbai, India;Shanghai, China; Jakarta, Indonesia; Tokyo, Japan;and Dhaka, Bangladesh are a few low lying major

population centers that are in a vulnerable situationdue to sea level rise. It is reported that five mostvulnerable countries with large populations are China,India, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia. Theimpact of climate change on developing nation ishighly significant. The implications of these potentialeffects range from changes in ocean chemistry,forecasted sea level rise, melt of glaciers, humanhealth and the displacement of coastal people.

India and Climate ChangeIndia has a distinct geographical entity since it is

marked off from the rest of Asia by mountain and sea.The geologic and tectonic history of the region iscomplex. It is reported that during the year 2004 morethan 261 earthquakes events occurred in this regionbefore the divesting earthquake of 26th December2004 and the tsunami that followed. There is anapparent seismic quiescence around the seas of India.This may change into extreme weather eventsoccasionally. It is detrimental to the coast and Islandsof India. India has 667 Islands in Bay of Bengal and508 in Arabian Sea. Length of coastline of mainlandand Islands is 7516.6 KM. India have a land area of

3287263 sq.km and territorial waters of about2465447.5 sq.km. Security of Indias coastline,stability of economic life and better governance incoastal region and Islands is highly significant.

The UNDP Human Development Report, 2007-08reveals that developing nations near the equator willbe much vulnerable to sea level rise. Sea level risewill be a pressing issue to countries in Asia. Based onthe above analysis, areas in India are more susceptibleto sea level rise. There are many small Islands inArabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. It is a fact that thereis very high density of population living in close

proximity to the coast. The Lakshadweep Islands areregarded as atoll formation of corals. It consists of 36islands. All these atolls are very small Islands. Thelargest island has an area of 4.8 sq. km. and thesmallest is with an area of 0.1 sq. km. isotopic studiescarried out at NGRI, Hyderabad in the scleractiniancorals from these islands have shown decadal to inter-decadal changes in SST during the last 120 yrs. Alsobacteria associated with the pollution are reported inPorites corals from the Kavaratti (Lakshadweep)island.

It is inferred that there will be increased coastalerosion, inundations, persistent storm events, shifts inwetlands, incursion of saline water into fresh water

aquifers, migrations of coral reefs, mangroves, tidalflats, in the coastal environs of India. There are a fewstudies related to the impact of sea level rise on thefresh water aquifer of coast and Islands of India. Theimpact of Sea Level Rise (SLR) for a scenario of 20cm has been predicted for the Islands. There are manysector specific initiatives to study the climate changeand the impact of sea level rise on the coastalenvironment of India. However, there is no attempt toassimilate integrated and reliable climate changecontextual information that is useful and usable tolocal decision makers. There is no clear informationon the coastal ecosystem, Islands and Islets on whichthe local adaptation decisions can be based and thecapacity of the local people to adapt and mitigatefrom the vulnerability of impact of climate change.This will drastically affect the livelihood and theeconomic security of the local people.

Kerala and Climate ChangeKerala is acclaimed for its unique development

trajectory leading to high human (social) developmentdisproportionate to its economic growth. Keralastands first in the UNDPs ranking of states in HumanDevelopment Index for Indian States (Planning

Commission, 2002, Council for Social Development,2008). In per capita consumption, Kerala stands at thetop though it ranks only fifth in per capita NSDP(GoI, 2009).

Kerala has a fragile and closed eco-system. Thereare both threats and opportunities for Keralassustainable development. Threats include thefollowing. State has the third highest populationdensity in India. (Kerala: 819, India: 324). Acute foodinsecurity and import of food grains. Land hunger inthe state for housing and lively hood leads toencroachment of forests and low lying wetlands. Due

to heavy unemployment, the slogan of industrialdevelopment at any cost gets support, for theemployers using polluting technologies from theworkers as also the unemployed. Unregulated back-water tourism (house boats) and eco tourism in theecologically fragile lands. Pro-environment lobbiesare too weak, localized and fragmented. A majorweakness of these movements is the lack of scientificand technical knowhow. The financial weakness ofthe State government does not allow for financingcleaner technologies to replace the existing polluting


3/4

SUNDARESAN & PATEL: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT 485

technologies. The existing low industrial base allowsfor a strategy of future industrialization of the stateusing less energy intensive and low GHG emission

technologies.The state has a rich biodiversity potential. Kerala

possess 95 percent of the flowering plants in theWestern Ghats. Contains 90 percent of the vertebratefauna. Western Ghats in Kerala is one of the 34worlds hot spots of biodiversity. Among the 34 it isplaced in the list of most important hottestbiodiversity hotspots. (Latha A, 2010). Kerala hasthree floristic hot spots-Agastyamala, Anamala andSilent Valley. Western Ghats in Kerala have 4500species of flowering plants. Western Ghats have 145species of mammals (of which 14 are endemic to

Western Ghats), 169 species of fresh water species,93 species of amphibians (of which 40 are endemic).There are 486 species of birds (of which 16 areendemic to Western Ghats). There is also innumerablemicro flora and fauna. The State has two biospherereserves- Nilgiri and Agastyamala (GOK, 2008). Statehas three out of twenty-five wetlands of internationalimportance included in the Ramsar list viz.,Ashtamudi, Sasthamkotta and Vembanad-Kolland.

In Kerala, the emission rate of CO2 and othergreen-house gases (GHG) are low. Kerala has acritical eminence for Carbon Sequestration Potential.

In the percentage of geographic area covered byforest, Keralas rank was the fourth (Kerala: 28.9%,India: 23.4%) (GoI, 2005). The forests in Kerala arebetter stocked than forests in other parts of India.

Kerala has high population density along thecoastal villages along with equally high density ofopen wells. The climate induced changes are goingadversely affect livelihood options of the people ofKerala, which has a 590 km long coastline. Thisclearly indicates the vulnerability of the coastalpopulation of Kerala even to a few millimeter rise insea level. There are many sector specific initiatives to

study the climate change and the impact of sea levelrise on the other coastal environment of India.However, there is no attempt to assimilate andintegrate the climate change contextual informationthat is useful to the planners and decision makers ofthe State. There is lack of explicit information on thecoastal ecosystems and islets upon which to base thelocal adaptation decisions. It is imperative to developan integrated climate change contextual database andinformation system in spatial domain for Kerala tounderstand the interrelationship between the elements

of ecosystems, the changes that are likely happen tothem and their physical, social and economic impacts.

The International Conference on Climate Change

and Environment held at Cochin University ofScience and Technology during 24-27 October 2010had recommended developing a multidisciplinaryproject to study the impact of Climate Change inKerala. Researchers associated with climate changestudies had met many times during the year 2010 and2011 and developed the project entitled ClimateChange Database for Impact Assessment andDevelopment: Adaptation and Mitigation Options forKerala- A Multi disciplinary simulation andmodeling Four national institutes of Council ofScientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) viz. CSIR

Centre for Mathematical Modeling and ComputerSimulation (C-CMACS), Bangaluru, NationalInstitute for Interdisciplinary Science & Technology(NIIST), Thiruvananthapuram, Central RoadResearch Institute (CSIR-CRRI) and NationalInstitute of Science Communication And InformationResources, New Delhi are the Central Institutesassociated with the development of the project. Centrefor Socio-economic and Environmental Studies(CSES) a nongovernmental organization hadsubmitted detailed program along with Department ofStatistics of CUSAT and Department of Futures

studies of University of Kerala. Six Universities ofKerala viz Kerala Fisheries and Ocean ScienceUniversity, University of Kerala and KeralaAgriculture University (KAU), Vellanikkara, Trichurand Cochin University of Science and Technology,Kannur University and Kerala Veterinary and AnimalScience University are the participating organizationsoi the project. Many departments of CochinUniversity of Science and Technology viz.Department of Statistics, Kochi (CUSAT),Department of Physical Oceanography, Kochi(CUSAT), Department of Marine Biology, Kochi

(CUSAT), Department of Chemical Oceanography,Kochi (CUSAT), Department of AtmosphericScience, Kochi (CUSAT), Department of ShipTechnology and Department of Industrial Fisheriesare involved in the project. Indian Institute ofInformation Technology and Management, Keralahad submitted specific program for the study.National Institute of Science Communication AndInformation Resources (CSIR-NISCAIR), New Delhiis the nodal organization and Dr Gangan Prathap,Director, NISCAIR is the mentor of the project. The


4/4

INDIAN J. MAR. SCI., VOL. 40, NO. 4, AUGUST 2011486

project will be submitted to the Department ofScience and Technology, Government of India forfinancial support.

Objectives of the present studyA. To analyze the trends in climatic elements, their

spatial pattern and its relationship with extremeevents such as El Nino, cyclones, etc.

B. To assess the impact of climate change tofollowing sectors of Kerala a). Agriculture(including plantation crops and spices), b)Fisheries (marine and inland), c) Industries,d)Transportvehicular and inland water transports,e) Tourism, f) Bio-diversity, g) Forestry, landshide& rood, i) Road lagiog, maintenance.

C. To examine the spatial and temporal changes inwater resources (surface and groundwater -quantityand quality), a) Specifically assess the dynamics ofriverine discharge and saline water incursion underchanging climate scenarios, b) Monsoonalvariations and its impact, c) Climate changescenario on the islets of Kerala, d) Sea level riseand natural resources of the coastal areas of Kerala:demarcating the vulnerable regions. e) Examine thebiogeochemical evidences of climate change, f)Develop a framework and decision support tool toassess the climate change impacts on Livelihood

and developmental processes, g) Evolving a regionwise/localised specific adaptive measures forKerala. H) Looking into suitable sectoralmitigation options under changing climatescenarios, i) Assess the carbon sequestrationpotential of Kerala, j) The study of the atmosphericchemistry related to climate change and monsoonalvariations in the perspective of Kerala, k)Developing large scale forecasting and modelingof the various parameters using high powercomputer simulation tools, l) Assist the localbodies and stake holders in adopting appropriate

measures in developmental activities namelyindustries, agriculture, and other livelihood optionsof Kerala.

Expected Outcome of the studyThe oceans, marine ecosystems and environment

were considered and managed in a sectoral way.

There were traditional management scheme for eachsector. Fisheries management did not consider othermarine uses. Use of ecosystem and fresh waterdischarge to the coastal waters are managed withdifferent processes. Use of oceans under nationaljurisdiction did not relate to uses of ocean areasbeyond national jurisdiction. Poverty alleviation wasnot linked to a healthy marine environment. Whereasthe impacts of climate change threaten to alter themarine environment at an extreme different entity andscale. It is affecting all issues, sectors and peoples ofthe world, an imperative for integrated andsustainable marine management. Impact of climatechange had conceptualized and recognized that alloceanic and atmospheric problems are linked andmust be considered as a whole system.

Present study is an attempt to integrate climatechange information into development and adaptationefforts. It is planned to publish a guidance manual fordevelopment planning to assist with the integration ofclimate information into development efforts. This isa prime tool to assist planners and stakeholders inadapting to the changing climate. These basicprocesses are essential for assessing vulnerability andidentifying and implementing climate changeadaptations. The present study will leads to strategicinterventions for developing capacity to improvegovernance in the coastal regions under variousscenarios of climate change and extreme weatherevents.

J SundaresanLavkush Kumar Patel

Climate Change Informatics,CSIR-National Institute of Science Communication

and Information Resources,

Dr. K S Krishnan Marg, Pusa Campus,New Delhi-110012 India)[email protected], [email protected]

ijms 40(4) (research report)

Documents