Ikon Daily Markets AnalysisEconomic Development:

A bailout package was approved intended to keep Cyprus in the euro zone

and rebuild its devastated economy. The deal would scrap the highly controversial

idea of a tax on bank deposits, although it would still require forced losses for

depositors and bond holders. The agreement calls for Cyprus Popular Bank Pcl

(CPB) (also known as Laiki Bank) to be shut down and split. Depositors in the bank

with accounts holding more than 100,000 euros would also be heavily penalized but

the exact amount of those losses would need to be determined. The Bank of Cyprus

Plc would take over the viable assets of the failed bank along with 9 billion euros in

central bank-provided emergency liquid-ity aid.

German IFO business climate fell slightly by 0.7 points from 107.4 to 106.7

in March. This correction comes after four months during which the IFO business

climate had im-proved by 7.4 points. The current assessment of the economic

situation also worsened again slightly and its index fell from 110.2 to 109.9. The

business climate index for manufacturing firms fell from 9.6 to 8.6 but remains

significantly above the weak levels (-6 to -11.5) observed late last year. The

business climate in construction held up well and rose to 7.2 from 6.9. The business

climate in wholesale fell sharply to 0.0 points after 6.3 in February but has been

very volatile lately, while it edged up in retail (0.0 after -1.2).

All in all, we had expected to see some consolidation of past gains this

month in the IFO index, although the drop was a bit stronger than anticipated. On

the back of relatively weak orders and industrial production data for January, the

latest weakness in the PMI and IFO surveys adds to some concern over the strength

of the rebound that the Ger-man economy currently appears to be going through. At

this stage, we remain relatively confident that a robust global economy and sound

domestic fundamentals will ensure a sustained recovery. Risks to this outlook still

stem from the euro area crisis, but we continue to consider them relatively

contained.

 

 

Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS

25th March 2013 R1

GOLD-XAU1,612-1,618

Silver-XAG29.05-29.20

Crude Oil 94.50

EURO/USD 1.3080

GBP/USD 1.5250

USD/JPY 94.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS

25th March 2013 S1

GOLD-XAU 1,600

Silver-XAG 28.65

Crude Oil 93.80

EURO/USD 1.2980

GBP/USD 1.5190

USD/JPY 94.10

Intra-Day Strategy (25th March 2013)

GOLD-XAU Neutral

Silver-XAG Neutral

Crude Oil Neutral

EURO/USD Neutral

GBP/USD Neutral

USD/JPY Neutral to Positive

Gold – XAUGold (spot) closed down on Friday made its intraday high of US$1,616.00/ounce after setting intraday low of US$1,603.70/ounce. Gold went down by 0.365% at US$1,603.70/ounce.

  Intraday Support Levels

S1

S2

S3

Intraday Resistance Levels

R1

R2

R3

Closing Snapshot

Close

High

Low

Chg(%)

Technical Indicators

Name Value

14DRSI 54.700

20-DMA 1592.44

50-DMA 1629.08

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA and 200DMA (1665) level become major resistance level for gold on daily chart; whereas, minor support level is at 20DMA (1589). MACD is now below zero line but histogram are increasing will bring more bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and indicating to buy. The Stochastic Oscillator has entered in overbought territory but giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Cushioned by an immediate support in 1605 – 1601, XAU can keep struggling for 1612 and 1620 – 1626. On the downside, a relapse through 1601 would call for weakness towards 1595 -- 1593 and 1586. Trade accordingly. Generally speaking, a convincing closing above 1620 is needed to confirm a small double-bottom for deeper upwards correction towards the 38.2% retracement (1647) of 1796 to 1555 descend. On the downside, slippage below 1577 would terminate the upwards correction for a meltdown towards 1559 and 1532.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Sell at strength at 1612-1620; targeting 1588-1584 and 1574-1566, upside breakage of 1622 will lead to 1626-1631 and 1641-1648. Buyers can buy in 1600-1605 with risk below 1594 hourly closing; targeting 1615-1620 and 1626-1634.

100-DMA 1663.53

200-DMA 1665.30

STOCH(5,3) 86.681

MACD(12,26,9) -3.413

Silver - XAGSilver (spot) closed down on Friday made its intraday high of US$29.18/ ounce after setting intraday low of US$28.53/ounce. Silver settled 1.498% down at US$28.78/ounce.

 

Intraday Support Levels

S1

S2

S3

Intraday Resistance Levels

R1

R2

R3

Closing Snapshot

Close

High

Technical in Focus:

In daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20DMA (28.90), breakage below 28.90 will lead to 28.50-27.90 and immediate resistance level at 50DMA (30.18). MACD is below the zero line and histogram are increasing will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is entering in neutral region and is indicating bullish stance. The Stochastic Oscillator entered into neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for today.

The bearish forces again wrested control through an extremely weak line on Friday. With nearby resistance levels around 29.01 and 29.36, XAG can weaken through 28.62 for 28.44 and 28.22. While a break past 29.36 can call for 29.62 – 29.95.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

SHORT positions at 29.15-29.35 with stop above 29.55; targeting 29.05-28.80 and

Low

Chg(%)

TECHNICAL INDICATORS

Name Value

14DRSI 47.005

20-DMA 28.90

50-DMA 30.18

100-DMA 31.09

200-DMA 30.74

STOCH(5,3) 67.226

MACD(12,26,9) -0.279

28.50-28.20, upside breakout of 29.55 will open the way to 29.50-29.65 and 29.75-29.90. Buyers can buy in 28.50-28.65 with risk below 28.35, targeting 29.35-29.55 and 29.75-30.05.

Oil - WTICrude futures (March 2013) on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$93.93/bbl and made an intraday low of US$92.31/bbl and settled up by 1.656% at US$93.87/bbl on session close.

Technical in Focus:

  Intraday Support Levels

S1

S2

S3

Intraday Resistance Levels

R1

R2

R3

Closing Snapshot

Close

High

Low

Chg(%)

TECHNICAL INDICATORS

Name Value

14DRSI 38.845

20-DMA 92.63

50-DMA 94.09

100-DMA 90.86

200-DMA 90.37

STOCH(5,3) 82.857

MACD(12,26,9) -1.00

In daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e 90.40, which is a very strong support and breakage above will lead to 90.70-89.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is now in overbought region and signaling to buy as it gave positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and indicating to buy.

We continue to sight possibility for strength towards 94.55 and 95.64. Nearby supports reside around 93.23 – 93.06 and 92.31 (risk). Stay long with revised risk below 92.31.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Today, buy on Weakness to 92.00-92.50 with risk below 91.90 (4-hourly Closing); targeting 91.50-92.50 and 93.05-93.50. Sell below 93.30-93.90, using a stop loss of 94.20, targeting 92.05-91.50 and 90.80.

EUR/USDEUR/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$ 1.2888/EUR and made an intraday high of US$1.3009/EUR and settled the day 0.736% up at US$1.2991/EUR on session close.

  Intraday Support Levels

S1

S2

S3

Intraday Resistance Levels

R1

R2

R3

Closing Snapshot

Close

High

Low

Chg(%)

TECHNICAL INDICATORS

Technical in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are sustaining bellow 20DMA (1.3060), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.3125-1.3265. MACD has broken zero line and giving a sell signal. Stochastic has been entered in the oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. RSI is also in oversold region but signaling to buy.

The pair managed to stable below 1.3000 levels which is negative and could push the pair to the downside towards the extended targets of the AB=CD bearish harmonic Pattern. The descending channel shown on the graph also supports extending negativity to test 1.2905 levels and perhaps towards 1.2805 levels. Stability below 1.3080 levels is an initial catalyst to maintain these expectations.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Name Value

14DRSI 47.904

20-DMA 1.3012

50-DMA 1.3238

100-DMA 1.3128

200-DMA 1.2878

STOCH(5,3) 56.980

MACD(12,26,9) -0.00728

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy in 1.2905-1.2980 with stop below 1.2850; targeting 1.3080-1.3130. Sellers can short around 1.3080-1.3130 with risk above 1.3200 4-hourly closing; targeting 1.2980-1.2905 and 1.2845-1.2805.

GBP/USDGBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.5165/GBP and made an intraday high of US$1.5247/GBP and settled the day up by 0.395% at US$1.5229/GBP on session close.

Technical in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.5882) is become good

  Intraday Support Levels

S1

S2

S3

Intraday Resistance Levels

R1

R2

R3

Closing Snapshot

Close

High

Low

Chg(%)

TECHNICAL INDICATORS

Name Value

14DRSI 53.216

20-DMA 1.5077

50-DMA 1.5431

100-DMA 1.5746

200-DMA 1.5798

STOCH(5,3) 88.419

MACD(12,26,9) -0.0066

resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in Neutral region at 50 and giving buy signal. MACD is now in negative and indicating increasing histograms; buy stance. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and now giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

The pair stabled with the beginning of this week's trading above key resistance level of the downside move that might be considered Broadening Pattern and might test 1.5190 levels towards around 1.5225 levels. Great volatility is valid and perhaps bearish corrections due to the pair's momentum as shown on Stochastic. Anyhow, trading above 1.4880 levels will be considered positive this week.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Buy in 1.5130-1.5190 with the risk below 1.5030; targeting 1.5250-1.5310. Sell around 1.5250-1.5300; targeting 1.5190-1.5130 and 1.5080-1.5030, and stop-loss with four-hour closing above 1.5405.

USD/JPYUSD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY94.19/USD and made an intraday high of JPY 95.14/USD and settled the day 0.44% down at JPY94.49/USD on session close.

  Intraday Support Levels

S1

S2

S3

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS

R1

R2

R3

Closing Snapshot

Close

High

Low

Chg(%)

TECHNICAL INDICATORS

Technical in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 20DMA (92.80), which is strong support on the daily chart. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing lead to an upward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory now but signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

The pair dropped, but level 94.10 levels managed to halt the downside push of this week. Also we find the pair stable above key support level of the upside move, forcing us to think that the pair might move to the upside again during this week. Breaking 92.50 levels could stop the possibility of a bullish move and might get the pair into a downside correctional wave.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Positive

Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair above

Name Value

14DRSI 56.840

20-DMA 94.10

50-DMA 92.30

100-DMA 87.50

200-DMA 83.15

STOCH(9,6) 32.94

MACD(12,26,9) 1.027

93.65-94.10; targeting 95.10-95.85 and 96.25-96.70 and stop-loss with four-hour closing below 93.50. Sellers can sell in around 94.90-95.50 with risk above 96.25; targeting 94.20-93.50.