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  • 8/7/2019 IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd

    1/21IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd ACMIIL 1

    C O M P A N Y R E P O R TISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    Investment Thesis

    We are initiating coverage on IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd. with Buy

    recommendation based on SOTP valuation with target price of`321. We have valued

    BOT projects at value of`125 per share, EPC business is valued at of`170 per

    share, ELSAMEX SA (an international subsidiary) is valued at `22 per share and

    other non-road projects are valued at `4.5 per share. On account of revenue from 22

    road BOT projects and strong EPC order book, we expect the revenues to register a

    CAGR of 51% over FY10 FY13E. With impressive track record of winning projects

    in past and current huge opportunities in road infrastructure segment (`85 bn in RFP

    stage and `761 bn in RFQ stage), we expect ITNL to further enhance its current

    road portfolio of 10,000 kms. However, high EPC revenues having lower marginsand higher leverage will impact margins.

    Investment Rationale

    Largest BOT player with around 10,000 lane kms scheduled to be operational

    by year 2014

    ITNL is the largest player in road BOT segment and has 22 road projects worth

    10,000 lane kms under its portfolio followed by 5,700 lane kms of IRB infra.. At

    present, ITNL has 4 annuity projects worth 1,000 lane kms and 6 toll based projects

    worth 3,300 kms, total 4,300 lane kms under operational phase. Remaining all 12

    projects worth 6,000 kms of ITNL, which are in different phases of execution,

    are scheduled to be operational between years 2011 - 2014. With commencementof operation of remaining projects, ITNLs road portfolio will be approximately

    double compared to IRB infra (5700 lane kms) portfolio.

    Moving towards balanced portfolio of Annuity and Toll based projects

    (46:54): To de risk uncertainty in trafc growth

    In order to dilute risk of the existing portfolio to appropriate level, ITNL has bagged

    more annuity projects in last 3-4 years. At present, ITNLs portfolio comprises

    of 75% (of total lane kms) toll based projects and 25% annuity projects. 56% of

    total under development projects and 70% of total pre development projects are

    annuity-based projects. Over the period of time (2011-2014), this ratio of 25:75

    (Annuity: Toll) will move towards 46:56, as projects under different phase willcommence the operation.

    Strategy is to build largest project portfolio by efcient use of resources

    ITNL is focusing on building a large portfolio. To faster scaling up of portfolio,

    ITNL has outsourced civil construction work. ITNL does not have to look after

    civil construction of projects under construction phase. Auction strategy has also

    helped ITNL to use their resources effectively as auction has not only reduced

    the risk from toll based revenue but also saved the resources which would have

    been directed for toll management of those projects. As a result, ITNL will be

    able to manage large number of project simultaneously with lesser resources

    required. This strategy has helped ITNL to have upper hand on IRB in terms ofproject winning capability.

    IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd

    AnalystAmit Nisar

    [email protected]

    Tel: (022) 2858 3403

    12 Jan, 2011

    B U Y

    Key Data (`)

    CMP 267.5

    Target Price 321

    Key Data

    Bloomberg Code ILFT IN

    Reuters Code ILFT.BO

    BSE Code 533177

    NSE Code IL&FS Trans

    Face Value (`) 10

    Market Cap. (`mn) 51,967

    52 Week High (`) 367.8

    52 Week Low (`) 253.4

    Avg. Daily Volume (6m) 145,442

    Beta (Sensex) 0.46

    Shareholding Pattern (%) As on Sept-10

    Promoters 75.1

    Mutual Funds 5.2

    Foreign Insti tutional Investors 4.9

    Others 14.8

    Total 100.0

    (`mn) FY10 FY11E FY12E

    Revenues 24,029 36,978 60,337

    EBIDTA 8,785 12,684 19,351

    EBIDTA Margin (%) 43 38 36

    PAT 3,444 4,022 5,187

    PAT Margin (%) 14 11 9

    EPS (`) 17.7 20.7 26.7

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    2/21IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd ACMIIL 2

    C O M P A N Y R E P O R TISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    ELSAMEX S A, International Subsidiary with 31, 000-lane kms under

    portfolio

    Elsamex is a world leader and specialist in areas of comprehensive road

    maintenance, operation & management of road systems and development of toll

    road support systems with more than 31,000 kms over 3,100 gas stations under

    maintenance today. Elsamex also has signicant operations outside Spain in about

    20 countries including the USA, Colombia, Brazil and China. Strategy behind

    this acquisition was to have access to the latest technologies for Operations &

    Maintenance of Highways and will bring the latest international best practices to

    highway projects in India. This acquisition will also help ITNL to get entry into

    international market. We have valued this business at `22 per share on basis of

    current book value per share at multiple of 1x.

    Huge opportunities for new upcoming projects: strong contender to add

    more projects under its portfolio

    ITNL has already been awarded 4 projects of worth `76.3 bn as on 30th

    September 2010. ITNL is also elected as preferred bidder for Almaty to Khorgos

    in Kazakhstan (international project) and Udhampur to Ramban project. Over

    and above these projects, ITNL has 24 projects of worth `85.6 mn in RFP

    stage and 76 projects of worth `761.43 bn. The company has already proven

    its expertise of winning projects as ITNL has bagged 8 projects in FY10 and 4

    projects in H1FY11. We expect, ITNL will continue to earn more projects from

    huge upcoming opportunities in road segment.

    Strong order book dictates a clear visibility of EPC business for going

    forward: Valued at `170 per share

    ITNL has EPC order book of`134.6 bn (ITNLs proportionate share) as on 31st

    October 2010 executable in next 2-3 years. Out of total order book, EPC work for

    projects awarded before Q2 FY11 is `114 bn, EPC order for projects awarded

    after Q2 FY11 is `5.6bn and remaining order worth `15 bn is for project under

    L1 status. This strong order book provides clear visibility for revenue from EPC

    business for year FY11E FY13E. We have valued this business based on P/E

    multiple. We have assumed multiple of 6x to FY12E EPS and valued at `170

    per share.

    Road BOT segment is valued at `125 per share value is diversied among

    all projects

    Based on FCFE model, we have valued all the BOT projects and arrived atvaluation of`125 per share. Out of 20 projects, 9 projects are valued in range

    of`5 - 15 per share, together they contribute `85 or 68% of total value arrived

    from BOT business. This shows that ITNL is not highly dependent on any one

    project unlike IRB infra which is highly dependent on Mumbai-Pune express

    way (contributing `40 of`128 from BOT business). Poor performance of any

    of these projects will have little impact on over all valuation.

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    Industry Overview

    Roads and Highways

    Investment to play vital role

    Immense investments are planned in overall infrastructure sector

    Fast growth of economy has necessitated high investments for development of physical

    infrastructure such as electricity, railways, roads, airports, irrigation, urban and

    rural water supply and sanitation. Lack of requisite investment, delays in execution

    etc have resulted in a demand supply gap in the important infrastructure services.

    The government has identied infrastructure as a key element for growth of Indian

    economy and hence, outlay of around `20.5 tn investments in all major infrastructure

    segment mentioned above to support 9% GDP target for Eleventh ve year plan.

    Outlay of`20.5 tn is expected to contribute 7% of total GDP which is estimated to

    be `271 tn of total eleventh ve year plan (at 2006-07 market price).

    Revised projected investment in infrastructureYears Tenth Plan

    (Actual)Base year of XIPlan (2006-07)

    (Actual)

    2007-08(Actual)

    2008-09(Actual/Est.)

    2009-10 (RE/BE/Proj.)

    2010-11 (BE/Projected)

    2011-12(Projected)

    Total EleventhPlan

    GDP at market prices 178,409 42,840 47,172 50,035 53,638 57,929 63,143 271,917

    Public Investment 6,809 1,737 1,995 2,381 2,630 2,908 3,199 13,113

    Private Investment 2,252 708 1,043 1,211 1,399 1,692 2,084 7,429

    Total Investment 9,061 2,445 3,038 3,592 4,028 4,601 5,283 20,542

    Investment as percentage of GDP

    Public Investment 3.82 4.05 4.23 4.76 4.9 5.02 5.07 4.82

    Private Investment 1.26 1.65 2.21 2.42 2.61 2.92 3.3 2.73

    Total Investment 5.08 5.71 6.44 7.18 7.51 7.94 8.37 7.55Source: GDP data for Tenth Plan, 2007-08, and 2008-09 are from CSO. GDP growth rates for 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12 have been assumed as 7.2%, 8% and9% respectively.

    Robust investments in road sector to improve existing road network

    Governments focus on investments in infrastructure segment, especially in road sector

    is expected to increase which will result in award of nearly 37,000 kms road projects

    from year 2009-10 to 2013-14 (Source: Report of the B K Chaturvedi committee

    on NHDP). As per estimation of committee report, out of 37,000kms, nearly 90%

    (33,000 kms) of road projects will be awarded in next three years (2009-10 2011-12).

    However, we believe that award of 37,000 kms in a year, is an aggressive target and

    difcult to achieve. We expect road development projects of around 25,000 27,000

    kms to be awarded during 2009-10 to 2013-14.

    Contract Awarded Length Completed

    Road Projects

    FY01

    FY02

    FY03

    FY04

    FY05

    FY06

    FY07

    FY08

    FY09

    FY010E

    FY011E

    FY01

    2E

    FY013E

    FY014E0

    2000

    4000

    6000

    8000

    10000

    12000

    14000km

    Source: Private Participation in Infrastructure, Planning Commission Report, Government of India

    January 2010, Report of the B K Chaturvedi committee on NHDP, ACMIIL Research

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    Increasing trend of private sector investment in roads and highways projects

    In next ve years (2009-10 2013-14), an investment of`6.3 tn is expected in road

    sector (Source: Crisil Research). Of `6.3 tn, a major part of investment will be funded

    by public sector in form of cess, external assistance, borrowings, budgetary support

    and toll collection. However, investment percentage share from private sector will

    continue to grow. Private sector will contribute around 31% (`1.9tn) between year

    2009-10 and 2013-14 against 20% between year 2007-08 and 2009-10 and rest will

    be funded by public sector, which is nearly 69%. `4.4 tn. Investments from private

    sector will play vital role, as it will help to meet project resource decit, improve

    the quality of road, speed up project execution and improve efciency through cost

    reducing technologies.

    Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojna (PMGSY)-Further development plan ofroad network under rural segment

    PMGSY is centrally funded scheme that is funded by budgetary source, Central

    Road Fund (CRF) on high-speed diesel and loan assistance from National Bank

    for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD), World Bank and Asian

    Development Bank (ADB).

    The aim of this program is to construct all weather roads for 40% of villages that

    still do not have access to these roads and remain isolated during monsoon. This

    program will establish connection to nearly 172,000 unconnected habitations with

    new connectivity of 365,279 kms.

    It has also been proposed to upgrade 368,000 kms of existing network so as to

    ensure farm to market connectivity.

    NHDP: Ambitious and path-breaking initiative of the Government of India

    The Government of India has launched major initiatives to upgrade and strengthen

    National Highways (NHs) through various phases of the NHDP. NHDP, one of the

    largest road development programs involves widening, upgrading and rehabilitation

    of about 55,000 kms, entailing an estimated investment of`3,000 billions (USD 60

    billion) (Source NHAI).

    Source: Ministry Of Road Transport And Highways Outcome Budget 2010-11, Economic Survey

    2009-10

    Financing Structure of NHAI

    100%

    90%80%70%

    60%

    50%

    40%30%

    20%

    10%

    0%1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

    Cess Fund External Assistance (Grant) External Assistance (Loan)

    Borrowings Budgetary Support Toll Collection

    1218 21

    20

    20 1833

    6465 7086

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    Progress of NHAI projects: Status as on November 30th, 2010

    NHDP Component Total Length Completed

    4 lane

    Underimplementation

    Balance Lengthforaward

    GQ Phase I 5,846 5,809 37 -

    Por t Connectivity Phase I 380 291 83 6

    Other NHs Phase I 1,383 926 437 20

    NS-EW Phase II 7,144 5,385 1,332 427

    NHDP Phase-III 12,109 1,922 5,207 4,980

    NHDP Phase- IV 20,000 - - 20,000

    NHDP Phase-V 6,500 407 1,893 4,200

    NHDP Phase-VI 1,000 - - 1,000

    NHDP Phase-VII 700 - 41 659

    Total 55,062 14,740 9,030 31,292

    Source: NHAI

    Road will continue to hold high share of freight and passenger traffic in thecountry

    The road transport sector has grown signicantly during the past six decades from

    13.8% share in goods trafc in 1950-51 to more than 60% at present, and from

    15.4% share in passenger trafc in the year 1950-51 to above 85% at present).

    Preference of road transportation for freight movement is mainly on basis of its

    easy accessibility, exible operations, door-to-door service and reliability.

    Note- For 2009-10, road is estimated to carry more than 60% of freight and more

    than 85% of passenger trafc reported in Ministry Of Road Transport And Highways

    Outcome Budget 2010-11.

    Source: The Working Group Report On Road Transport For The Eleventh Five Year Plan, ACMIIL Research

    Goods Traffic - Roads vs Railways

    Roads Railways

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    1 95 0- 51 1 96 0- 61 1 97 0- 71 1 98 0- 81 1 99 0- 91 2 00 0- 01 2 00 9- 10 *

    60

    38.138.130.1

    16.213.8

    61.3

    4038.7

    61.961.9

    69.9

    83.886.2

    %

    Share

    Roads Railways

    Passenger Traffic - Roads vs Railways

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    1 95 0- 51 1 96 0- 61 1 97 0- 71 1 98 0- 81 1 99 0- 91 2 00 0- 01 2 00 9- 10 *

    8582

    15.4

    51

    6472.2 72.284.6

    49

    36

    27.8 27.8

    18 15

    %

    Share

    Source: NHAI, ACMIIL Research

    NHDP Status

    27%

    16%

    57%

    Completed Under Implementation Yet to be awarded

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    The freight and passenger trafc is expected to register signicant growth as

    growth is being witnessed in the auto sector as well. Growth of vehicle trafc is

    an important key value driver for toll based road projects. On the other side, better

    road connectivity will accelerate growth in number of vehicles. Development of

    road plays vital role for both these segments.

    The ministry of road transport and highways to cut toll rates for three-axletrucks by 30%, from `3.45 to `2.40 per kms

    In response to threat from All India Motor Transport Congress (AIMTC) to go on

    strike, if the toll rates were not cut down, the ministry of road transport and highways

    agreed to cut toll rates for three-axle trucks by 30%, `3.45 to `2.40 per kms. This

    new toll rate for three-axle trucks will be applicable to projects that are now operated

    under government agencies with immediate effect and it will be also applicable to

    all future PPP projects for which bidding is yet to take place.

    Based on above mentioned change in toll policy, we may see following impact on

    participants of road sector or entire sector

    Private road developers: We believe, since policy is not applicable to existing

    operational road project under concession period, impact on current and future

    (exclusive of new projects) protability is unaffected. As far as future projects are

    concerned, new toll policy will reduce protability of the projects. This downward

    shift in protability may restrict players to bid for new road projects which are below

    their minimum prot level criteria or level which is set by lenders of the projects.

    Large and organized players can manage to bag few viable projects based on their

    strong nancial position but small size road developer may nd difcult to bag these

    projects based on their current capacity.

    Government Entities: Government entities like NHAI will have negative impact

    due to mentioned change in toll policy. They will see drop in toll revenue generated

    from the multiple axle vehicle category. Three-axle trucks contribute signicant share

    in this category. On other hand, entities will also nd fewer bidders for new projects.

    Entire road sector: Because of mentioned change in policy, entire road sector

    will witness fall in number of viable projects and off take of projects due to fall in

    protability of road developers for future projects. As a result, bidding of new projects

    may be delayed. Delay in award of projects and slowdown in development of road

    projects may force government entities to revise term agreement of projects to make it

    viable and attractive for road projects and lenders of projects. Government may have to

    increase term concession period or increase viability gap funding (VGF) for projects,which will help to restore level of protability for road developers. The required

    funding of projects is done through cess, external assistance, borrowings, budgetary

    support and toll collection. As per Crisil research, toll collection will contribute around

    20% of total funding required by year 2014-15. Increase in requirement of VGF and

    shortfall in toll revenue due to new proposed policy will create an imbalance between

    source and application of funds. However, this imbalance will be small but it will

    create pressure on funding requirement for sector. As a result, government entities

    may prefer to extend concession period over increasing VGF for projects.

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    Risks

    Economy slowdown: Slow down in economy can affect growth of industry output,

    trades that are being transacted between countries (Import-Exports), investments and

    movement of goods occurred by commercial vehicles. Container trafc will also beaffected due to impact on trades between countries; which will hamper movement

    of goods between ports to destination by roadways. It may also disturb growth in

    automobile sector; hence growth in population of commercial & passenger vehicles.

    Interest rate movement: Increase in interest rate can have impact on cash ow of

    road projects, since most of the projects have reset clause for interest rate every three

    years. However, most of the projects have toll rates linked to WPI; increase in interest

    payment will be partially taken care by additional revenue from higher toll rates.

    Policy and political risk: Adverse changes in policy will impact protability and

    margins of the company. Company may nd difcult to raise funds for project if

    policy hurts the condence of lenders to lend on the projects. Procedural delays and

    political involvement in policy changing can also impact adversely.

    Execution risk: Delay in completion of construction of road may result in cost

    overrun or may raise requirement of additional nance. Extended construction period

    will also cause loss of toll revenues for this extended period, as construction period

    is part of total concession period.

    Funding Risk: Being capital-intensive industry, there is high requirement of funds

    for companies which handles large numbers of projects. Raising enough capital which

    can match this requirement is one of important risk factor. Due to this, gap between

    duration of requirement and duration of source fund can impact adversely.

    Outlook

    Road sector is expected to do well on account of huge plan under NHDP and PMGSY.

    As being important sector, we expect continuous development and uninterrupted

    ow of investment from central and state government. As a result huge construction

    activities is expected to take place once new road projects will be awarded. On other

    hand; resolution of policy issues has imparted the following:

    Clarity related to bidding of projects.

    Reduction in delay of land acquisition as 80% of land required for project shall

    be acquired by NHAI before awarding project under new norms.

    Lowering of project cost.

    Increase in concession period and partial trafc risk mitigation provision.

    These new amendments in policy reduce risk factor for developers, as a result of

    which quantum of investments in road sector through private participants has paced

    up. This will lead to continuous growth and will ease funding pressure on central

    level. However, there is risk of changes in policy and political issues, which cannot

    be avoided and can give negative surprises to industry as we have recently experience

    in proposed change (lowering of toll rates for three-axle trucks by 30%).

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    Company Overview

    IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd (ITNL) is an established ISO 9000:2001 surface

    transportation infrastructure company, and is one of the leading private sector BOT

    (build, operate and transfer) road operators in India. IL&FS Transportation NetworksLtd was incorporated on November 29, 2000 by IL&FS, an infrastructure development

    and nance company, in order to consolidate their existing road infrastructure

    projects and to pursue various new project initiatives like development, operation &

    maintenance of national and state highways, roads (including urban roads), yovers

    and bridges. ITNL is a developer, operator and facilitator of surface transportation

    infrastructure projects, taking projects from conceptualization through commissioning

    to operations & maintenance. It has a diversied portfolio, including 22 road projects,

    a metro rail project, bus transportation and border entry points. The companys current

    project portfolio includes 22 highways comprising more than 11,500 lane kms., which

    includes 4,329 lane kms. under operation, 2,458 lane kms. under development, 3,229

    lane kms in pre development phase and 1,398 lane kms. are under L1 status. ITNLstarted its international operations by acquiring Spanish company Elsamex SA in

    March 2008. This acquisition was done in order to complement ITNLs BOT road

    operations with acquired companys offerings in maintenance of roads, buildings

    and petrol stations in its home country, along with additional operations in Portugal,

    Columbia and Mexico.

    Business Mix

    ITNL generates revenues primarily from annuity receipts, toll collection, operation

    & maintenance activities and advisory & project management fees from BOT road

    projects, and Elsamexs maintenance business.

    BOT Projects-Includes road, urban infra, metro rail and border entry points

    projects

    ITNL has a portfolio of around 22 road projects across the country, with equity

    stakes ranging from 25% to complete 100% holding. The company has presence

    across India with projects in 14 states. The company also entered into other areas of

    surface transportation projects such as metro rail, bus transportation, border entry

    points and regional airports.

    ELSAMEX S A-International subsidiary

    ITNL, through Elsamex S A, international subsidiary, involves in the maintenance of

    roads, buildings, and petrol stations, primarily in Spain, with additional operations

    in Portugal, Columbia and Mexico. Elsamex S A also provides consulting services

    for roads and water supply projects in the areas of quality control, safety, health,

    and environment, as well as conducts research & development for road maintenance

    projects.

    IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd

    19 Road SPVs(50%-100%)

    Metro Rail SPV70%

    Bus Transport SPV70%

    MP Border Check-Post-24 Check-posts51%

    Elsamex SA20 subsidiaries

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    SWOT

    Strength Weakness

    Largest road BOT portfolio in the country

    Experienced player with strong past records

    and execution skills (taking projects from

    conceptualization through commissioning to

    operations & maintenance)

    Presence across country with projects in 14

    states

    Balanced project portfolio 12 Annuity & 10

    Toll based

    Strong Parentage of IL&FS, one of the largest

    infrastructure development and finance group.

    Dependency on construction players for civil

    work of project

    Low revenue yield due to balance portfolio

    of ITNL as compared to its strong competitor

    IRB infra

    Higher interest and fixed cost has resulted in poor

    margins from international subsidiary.

    Opportunities Threats

    Timely execution without cost overruns and

    project management will be a key differentiator

    for the segment.

    Growth in vehicle population is key value driver

    of the toll road projects.

    Huge investments are expected in infrastructure

    sector in next 5 years.

    Policy and Political Risk.

    Competition, which will lead to lower margins in

    the industry for new road projects.

    Shifting from core business could impact growth

    in sector of expertise.

    Delay in award of projects.

    Source: Company, ACMIIL Research

    Investment Rationale

    Largest BOT player with around 10,000 lane kms scheduled to be opera-tional by year 2014

    ITNL is the largest player in road BOT segment and has 22 road projects worth 10,000

    lane kms under its portfolio followed by 5,700 lane kms of IRB infra. At present,

    ITNL has 4 annuity projects worth 1,000lane kms and 6 toll based projects worth

    3,300 kms, total 4,300 lane kms under operational phase. Remaining all 12 projects

    worth 6,000 kms of ITNL, which are in different phases of execution, are scheduled

    to be operational between years 2011-2014. With commencement of operation of

    remaining projects, ITNLs road portfolio will be approximately double compared to

    IRB infra (5700 lane kms) portfolio. However, due to varied ownership of ITNL in

    all road projects, ITNL owns around 7,000 lane kms out of 10,000 lane kms. ITNLalso has projects worth 1398 lane kms under L1 status and O&M contract for 31,000

    lane kms by international subsidiary ELSAMEX.

    Stages of Projects Annuity Toll Total

    Operational 1,003 3,326 4,329

    Under development 1,365 1,093 2,458

    Pre development 2,256 9,73 3,229

    Total 4,624 5,392 10,016

    L1 stage 1,398

    O&M contract under International Subsidiary 31,000

    Total BOT 11,414

    Total O&M 31,000

    Source: Company, ACMIIL Research

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    Moving towards balanced portfolio of Annuity and Toll based projects(46:54): To de-risk uncertainty in traffic growth

    In order to dilute risk of the existing portfolio to appropriate level, ITNL has bagged

    more annuity projects in last 3-4 years. At present, ITNLs portfolio comprises of 75%

    (of total lane kms) toll based projects and 25% annuity projects. With this strategy,

    ITNL will be able to de-risk uncertainty in trafc growth and adverse change in toll

    policy. 56% of total under development projects and 70% of total pre development

    projects are annuity based projects. Over the period of time (2011-2014), this ratio

    of 25:75 (Annuity: Toll) will move towards 46:56, as projects under different phase

    will commence the operation.

    ITNL also auctioned few of its present toll based projects in order to convert variable

    toll revenue to xed auction revenue. In auction, highest bidder which is elected by

    ITNL will purchase toll revenue which is generated by projects for 1 year. In respect

    to toll collection, bidder will be obligated to pay equal xed payment in every quarter

    to ITNL based on price agreed during auction. Currently ITNL is generating auction

    revenue from Mega Highways-Rajasthan (Ph-I), Ahmedabad Mehsana Road, Vadodra

    Halol Road (Gujarat) and Rajkot to Jetpur. We believe balanced portfolio will add

    stability in revenue growth going forward and auction strategy will lower current risk

    of portfolio. However, balance portfolio will limit upside potential for ITNL along

    with limited downside.

    Projects Ratio

    Stages of Projects Annuity Toll

    Operational 23% 77%

    Under development 56% 44%

    Pre development 70% 30%

    Total 46% 54%

    Source: Company, ACMIIL Research

    Growing portfolio of road projects

    LineKms

    Annuity Toll

    0

    2000

    4000

    6000

    8000

    10000

    12000

    2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E

    Operational projects

    1003 1176 12833117

    462430783326 3326

    4419

    5392

    Source: Company, ACMIIL Research

  • 8/7/2019 IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd

    11/21IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd ACMIIL 11

    C O M P A N Y R E P O R TISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    Strategy is to build largest project portfolio by efficient use of resources

    ITNL is focusing on building a large portfolio. To fasten scaling up of portfolio,

    ITNL has outsourced civil construction work. ITNL does not have to look after civil

    construction of projects under construction phase. Auction strategy has also helped

    ITNL to use their resources effectively as auction has not only reduced the risk from

    toll based revenue but also saved the resources which would have been directed for

    toll management of those projects. As a result, ITNL will be able to manage large

    number of project simultaneously with lesser resources required. This strategy has

    helped ITNL to have upper hand on IRB in terms of project winning capability.

    Projects awarded in 2009-10 ITNLs project pipeline for 2010-11

    Project BOT Type Length(lane Kms) EstimatedCost (`in mn) Project BOT Type Length(lane Kms) EstimatedCost (`in mn)

    Road Sector Chennai to Nashri in J&K Annuity 38 39,842

    Hazaribagh to Ranchi Annuity 319 8,692 Jorbat to Shillong in North East Annuity 262 8,240

    Pune to Sholapur Toll 571 14,027 Narkattpally to Addanki in AP Toll 888 17,289

    Moradabad to Bareilly Toll 522 19,836 Madhya Pradesh Entry Point Project Entry Fee - 10,940

    JARDP Annuity 466 14,078 Total 1,188 76,311

    Mega Highways - II Toll 698 7,500 Lowest / Preferred Bidder

    Chandrapur Warora Toll 275 7,000 Almaty to Khorgos in Kazakhastan Toll / Annuity 1,212 98,400

    Sub-Total (Lane Kms) 2,851 71,133 Udhampur to Ramban in J&K Annuity 186 15,000

    Rail Sector Total 1,212 113,400

    Gurgaon Metro Rail BOOT 4.9 11,000Sub-Total (Kms) 4.9 11,000 Total Project Cost 189,711

    Bus Transport Sector Source: Company, ACMIIL Research

    Nagpur City Bus Transpor tation 300 Buses 180

    Sub-Total 300 Buses 180

    Total 82,313

    Source: Company, ACMIIL Research

    Strong support from promoter IL&FS, one of the largest NBFC in infrastruc-ture lending segment

    ITNLs promoter IL&FS gives added advantage to its position during bidding for

    new projects or approaching lenders for nancing options. Due to strong history ofIL&FS in India, it enjoys strong brand recognition. Parent support provides ITNL

    with opportunities to negotiate bilateral contracts with state and central government

    entities seeking customized proposals. Strong support has also helped ITNL to qualify

    for nancially large size project.

    Source: Company, ACMIIL Research

    Portfolio mix with risk profile

    inlaneKm

    0

    2000

    4000

    6000

    8000

    10000

    12000

    2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014EOperational projects

    Annuity Toll

    25% 26% 28%

    41%

    46%74%75%72%

    59%

    54%

    10016

    7536

    460945024081

  • 8/7/2019 IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd

    12/21IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd ACMIIL 12

    C O M P A N Y R E P O R TISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    ELSAMEX S A, International Subsidiary with 31, 000-lane kms under portfolio

    ITNL started its international operations by acquiring Spanish company Elsamex SA

    in March 2008 with investment of Euro 12.15mn. Additional Euro 40.09 mn was

    subsequently invested in the company, taking it to total investment of Euro 52.24 mn.Elsamex is a world leader and specialist in areas of comprehensive road maintenance,

    operation & management of road systems and development of toll road support

    systems with more than 31,000 kms over 3,100 gas stations under maintenance today.

    The company provides quality control, testing and certication of roads and enjoys

    high reputation in the European region. Elsamex is a pioneer in developing Bitumen

    products and has introduced more than 60 new technologies in highways construction

    and maintenance. It owns 15 patents for different Bitumen products. Elsamex also

    has signicant operations outside Spain in about 20 countries including the USA,

    Colombia, Brazil and China. Strategy behind this acquisition was to have access to

    the latest technologies for Operations & Maintenance of Highways and will bring the

    latest international best practices to highway projects in India. This acquisition willalso help ITNL to get entry into international market. Elsamex contribute around 40%

    to total revenue of ITNL in FY09 against 60% in FY09. Going forward on account

    of at growth in Elsamexs revenue and increase revenue from EPC business from

    ITNL, contribution of revenue from Elsamex is expected to fall. We have valued this

    business at `22 per share on basis of current book value per share at multiple of 1x.

    Huge opportunities for new upcoming projects: strong contender to addmore projects under its portfolio

    ITNL has already been awarded 4 projects of worth `76.3 bn as on 30th September

    2010. ITNL added Chennai-Nashri, Jorbat to Shilong, Narkattpally to Addanki road

    projects and MP entry point project for 24 entry points in current scal year. ITNL isalso elected as preferred bidder for Almaty to Khorgos in Kazakhstan (international

    project) and Udhampur to Ramban project. Total project cost of both the projects is

    worth `113.4 bn. Over and above these projects, ITNL has 24 projects of worth `

    85.6 mn in RFP stage and 76 projects of worth `761.43 bn. The company has already

    proven its expertise of winning projects as ITNL has bagged 8 projects in FY10 and

    4 projects in H1FY11. We expect, ITNL will continue to earn more projects from

    huge upcoming opportunities in road segment.

    Entity RFP Stage RFQ Stage

    Projects Length (Kms) Cost (`in Mn) Projects Length (Kms) Cost (`in Mn)

    Nhai 10 1,241 41,861 51 6,435 555,896

    Morth 0 0 0 5 796 47,612

    State Projects 14 1,630 43,774 20 2,384 157,925

    Total 24 2,871 85,635 76 9,615 761,433

    Source: Company, ACMIIL Research

    Total Pipeline (in `mn)

    Awarded 4 76,311

    Preferred 2 113,400

    RFP Stage 24 85,635

    RFQ Stage 54 761,433

    Total 84 1,036,779

    Source: Company, ACMIIL Research

  • 8/7/2019 IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd

    13/21IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd ACMIIL 13

    C O M P A N Y R E P O R TISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    Strong order book dictates a clear visibility of EPC business for going for-ward: Valued at `170 per share.

    ITNL has EPC order book of`134.6 bn (ITNLs proportionate share) as on 31st

    October 2010 executable in next 2-3 years. Out of total order book, EPC work for

    projects awarded before Q2 FY11 is `114 bn, EPC order for projects awarded after

    Q2 FY11 is `5.6bn and remaining order worth `15 bn is for project under L1 status.

    Almaty to Khorgos project is not included in the order book, since this project is still

    under negotiation stage. This strong order book provides clear visibility for revenue

    from EPC business for year FY11E-FY13E. We have valued this business based on

    P/E multiple. We have assumed multiple of 6x to FY12E EPS and valued at `170

    per share.

    EPC work pending to be executed (ITNL proportionate share) (`million)

    Projects awarded till last quarter 114,000

    Projects awarded after Sep 30, 2010 5,600

    Projects where ITNL have emerged as L1 (excluding Almatty to Horgos project) 15,000

    Total EPC order pending to be executed 134,600

    Source: Company, ACMIIL Research

    However, high EPC revenues will lead to high leverage and so will impactmargins

    Increase in EPC revenue will demand more funds and we expect ITNL will fund most

    of its requirement through debt. As a result, debt to equity ratio is expected to rise

    to 2:1 in FY10 to 3.9:1 by FY14E. We also expect that average margins are likely

    to fall due to increase in revenue contribution from EPC business, as EPC business

    has lower margin compared to other business. EBIDTA margin is expected to fall

    from 42% in FY10 to 35% in FY13E and PAT margin is expected to fall from 14%

    in FY10 to 7% in FY13E.

    Road BOT segment is valued at `125 per share-value is diversified amongall projects

    Based on FCFE model, we have valued all the BOT projects and arrived at valuation

    of`125 per share. Out of 20 projects, 9 projects are valued in range of`5-15 per

    share, together they contribute `85 or 68% of total value arrived from BOT business.

    This shows that ITNL is not highly dependent on any one project unlike IRB infra

    which is highly dependent on Mumbai-Pune express way (contributing `40 of`

    128 from BOT business). Poor performance of any of these projects will have little

    impact on over all valuation. We have not valued Chhattisgarh highway project andMega Highways Project, Rajasthan (phase 2) due to lack of clarication from the

    management. However, if valued at present value of equity investment, both the

    projects will contribute additional `8 per share (`6. 5 and `1.5 per share respectively)

    to total value of road BOT segment.

  • 8/7/2019 IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd

    14/21IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd ACMIIL 14

    C O M P A N Y R E P O R TISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    Financial valuation

    The company reported net sales of`24130 mn at consolidated level, up by 97%

    y.o.y basis. Of these nearly `8000 mn are from technical fees (engineering service

    income),`10,000 mn is from its subsidiary Elsamex, around

    `2,000 mn is the domestic

    O&M income, around `2,500 mn is the annuity income from toll collection and the

    remaining is the toll based revenues. EBIDTA has increased by 193% to `8,786 in

    FY10 against `3,000 in FY09. EBIDTA margin has also increased by 12% to 35%

    in FY10. Increase in EBIDTA and EBIDTA margin was result of base effect as FY09

    result was poor on account of consolidation of ELSAMEX. PAT has also gone up 10

    fold to `3383 mn in FY10 from `321 mn in FY09.

    Peer group valuationPlayer profile

    ROCE % ROE % EBIDTAM % PAT M % P/E

    IRB Infra 13% 19% 50% 21% 15.4

    L&T 17% 21% 16% 8% 29

    REL Infra 6% 6% 18% 9% 15.5

    GMR Infra 4% 2% 42% 4% -

    IL&FS Transportation 21% 25% 32% 13% 15.1

    HCC 7% 9% 13% 1% 28

    Source: Company, ACMIIL Research

    Growth and margins

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    0

    10000

    20000

    30000

    40000

    50000

    60000

    70000

    80000

    90000

    in

    mm

    `

    FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

    72%

    26%24%

    37%34%

    32%

    2%

    14%

    11% 9%

    32%

    7%

    Revenue EBIDTAM PATM

    Source: Company, ACMIIL Research

    Peer Group

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    ITNL IRB Infra L&T REL Infra GMR Infra HCC

    ROCE % ROE % EBIDTAM % PAT M %

    Source: Company, ACMIIL Research

  • 8/7/2019 IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd

    15/21IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd ACMIIL 15

    C O M P A N Y R E P O R TISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    ITNL and IRB Head to head

    IRB being close competitor for ITNL, we have compared both the companies on

    various nancial aspects

    `mn. ITNL IRB

    FY09 FY10 FY09 FY10

    Sales 12,253.7 24,028.8 9,918.8 17,048.5

    PBIDT 2,999.7 8,784.9 4669.9 8479.5

    PAT 262.6 3,443.9 1758.5 3854.1

    PBIDTA 24% 37% 22% 50%

    PATM 2% 14% 18% 23%

    ROE 3% 21% 10% 19%

    ROCE 10% 16% 8% 13%

    D/E 2.1 2.0 1.4 1.4

    Source: Company, ACMIIL Research

    `mn. ITNL IRB

    FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

    Sales 24,028.8 36,978.0 60,337.4 81,985.4 17,048.5 33,969.8 47,374.5 58,082.0

    PBIDT 8,784.9 12,684.4 9,351.4 25,979.7 8479.5 12755.8 16595.6 20785.8

    PAT 3,443.9 4,021.8 5,187.1 6,107.9 3854.1 5286.4 5024.2 6581.5

    PBIDTA 37% 34% 32% 32% 50% 38% 35% 35%

    PATM 14% 11% 9% 7% 23% 16% 11% 11%

    ROE 21% 20% 21% 20% 19% 21% 17% 19%

    ROCE 16% 13% 14% 13% 13% 15% 12% 12%

    D/E 2.0 3.1 3.6 3.9 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.6

    Source: Company, ACMIIL Research

    We have compared both the companies based on our future estimation related to their

    performance. Both the companies are expected to grow at nearly same rate at 50%

    CAGR (2010- 2013). However, EBIDTA of ITNL is expected to grow faster than

    IRB. We expect EBIDTA of ITNL to grow at CAGR (2010-2013) of 43% against 34%

    in case of IRB. Growth rate in PAT is also expected to be higher in ITNL, CAGR of

    21% against CAGR of 19% for IRB. ITNL has more number of projects in various

    phase of development, which will generate high EPC revenue. However, this high

    EPC revenue will cause increase in leverage for ITNL and hence will impact margins

    going forward. Although IRB is also going through similar phase for its new projects,

    but it has lesser projects under same phase compared to ITNL.

  • 8/7/2019 IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd

    16/21IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd ACMIIL 16

    C O M P A N Y R E P O R TISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    Recommendation

    We are initiating coverage on IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd. with Buy

    recommendation based on SOTP valuation with target price of`321. We have

    valued BOT projects at value of`

    125 per share, EPC business is valued at of`

    170per share, ELSAMEX SA (an international subsidiary) is valued at `22 per share and

    other non-road projects are valued at `4.5 per share. On account of revenue from 22

    road BOT projects and strong EPC order book, we expect the revenues to register

    a CAGR of 51% over FY10 FY13E. With impressive track record of winning

    projects in past and current huge opportunities in road infrastructure segment (`85

    bn in RFP stage and `761 bn in RFQ stage), we expect ITNL to further enhance its

    current road portfolio of 10,000 kms. However, high EPC revenues having lower

    margins and higher leverage will impact margins.

    Recommendation

    Road Valuation NPV (`Mn) Value per Share (`) COE (%)

    North Karnataka Expressway FCFE 484.3 2.5 13%

    West Gujarat Expressway FCFE 1,111.7 5.7 13%

    Noida Toll Bridge FCFE 1,613.4 8.3 13%

    Gujarat Road And Infra Company Ltd FCFE 3,764.4 19.4 13%

    Andhra Pradesh Expressway FCFE 948.0 4.9 13%

    Ramky Elsamex Hyderabad Ring Road FCFE 222.2 1.1 13%

    Thiruvananthapuram City Roads (Phase I) FCFE 92.1 0.5 13%

    Mega Highways Project Rajasthan FCFE 1,663.0 8.6 13%

    Thiruvananthapuram P2,3 FCFE 57.2 0.3 13%

    East Hyderabad Expressway Ltd FCFE 719.7 3.7 13%

    Beawar Gomti Road FCFE 686.0 3.5 13%Jharkhand Accelerated Road Development Programme FCFE 1,705.3 8.8 13%

    Hazaribagh Ranchi Road FCFE 373.8 1.9 13%

    Pune Sholapur Road FCFE 1,844.9 9.5 13%

    Chandrapur Warora Road Project FCFE 680.5 3.5 13%

    Moradabad to Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh FCFE 2,371.7 12.2 13%

    Chenani - Nashria Road FCFE 3,077.8 15.8 13%

    Jorabat Shillong Road FCFE 501.7 2.6 13%

    Narketpally - Addanki - Medarametla FCFE 2,292.3 11.8 13%

    Total 124.6

    EPC P/E multiple 169.6 6X FY12E

    Non road projects BV 4.6 1X FY10

    ELSAMEX BV 22.0 1X FY10

    Total 320.8

    Assumption: Expected market return: 14%, Risk free rate: 8%, Beta = 0.85 (10 years average for Noida Toll)

    Source: ACMIIL Research, Company

  • 8/7/2019 IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd

    17/21IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd ACMIIL 17

    C O M P A N Y R E P O R TISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    Financial

    Profit & Loss Account `Mn

    Particulars FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

    Revenue 12,253.7 24,028.8 36,978.0 60,337.4 81,985.4Total Expenditure 10,320.4 16,087.6 25,587.8 43,097.8 58,875.2

    Operating Profit 1,933.3 7,941.2 11,390.2 17,239.6 23,110.2

    Other Income 1,066.4 843.7 1,294.2 2,111.8 2,869.5

    EBIDTA 2,999.7 8,784.9 12,684.4 19,351.4 25,979.7

    Depreciation 353.0 603.1 1,479.3 3,421.6 5,948.3

    EBIT 2,646.7 8,181.9 11,205.1 15,929.8 20,031.4

    Interest 1,743.0 2,940.9 5,299.9 8,359.6 10,974.3

    EBT 903.8 5,241.0 5,905.2 7,570.2 9,057.2

    Taxes 482.6 1,857.9 1,948.7 2,498.2 2,988.9

    PAT before Extra ordinary item 421.2 3,383.1 3,956.5 5,072.0 6,068.3

    Extra ordinary item 126.8 -87.3 49.6 74.3 86.1

    PAT Before Minority Interest 294.4 3,470.3 3,906.8 4,997.7 5,982.2

    Minority Interest 31.8 26.4 -115.0 -189.4 -125.7

    PAT 262.6 3,443.9 4,021.8 5,187.1 6,107.9

    Growth in revenue (%) 238.9 96.1 53.9 63.2 35.9

    Growth in Operating profits (%) 5.6 310.8 43.4 51.4 34.1

    Growth in PAT (%) -71.8 1,211.3 16.8 29.0 17.8

    OPM (%) 15.8 33.0 30.8 28.6 28.2

    Net Profit Margin (%) 2.1 14.3 10.9 8.6 7.5

    Source: ACMIIL Research, Company

    Balance Sheet `Mn

    Particulars FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

    Sources of Funds

    Share Capital 1,714.2 1,942.7 1,942.7 1,942.7 1,942.7

    Reserves and Surplus 7,148.0 14,743.7 18,424.6 23,270.8 29,037.7

    Total Shareholders Funds 8,862.1 16,686.4 20,367.2 25,213.4 30,980.4

    Total Loan Funds 18,891.9 33,565.2 63,408.7 90,111.0 121,881.3

    Deferred Tax Liabil ity 647.1 778.7 778.7 778.7 778.7

    Minority interest 773.7 1,118.3 1,003.3 813.9 688.1

    Advanced towards capita l of subsidiary 453.8 450.0 450.0 450.0 450.0

    Total Capital Employed 29,628.6 52,598.6 86,007.9 117,367.0 154,778.6

    Application of Funds

    Gross Block 11,163.8 19,134.4 32,098.7 49,449.9 70,853.0

    Less: Accumulated Depreciation 2,630.5 2,954.6 4,433.9 7,855.5 13,803.8

    Net Block 8,533.3 16,179.8 27,664.8 41,594.4 57,049.2

    Capital Work in Progress 81.2 56.8 - - -

    Investments 2,010.2 4,543.7 4,543.7 4,543.7 4,543.7

    Net Current Assets 6,932.9 15,160.7 29,402.3 31,731.3 34,405.8

    Receivable under service Concession agreement 7,317.6 12,048.8 19,788.4 34,888.8 54,171.1

    Goodwill on consolidation 2,854.8 2,710.1 2,710.1 2,710.1 2,710.1

    Toll receivable account 1,898.7 1,898.7 1,898.7 1,898.7 1,898.7

    Total Assets 29,628.6 52,598.6 86,007.9 117,367.0 154,778.6

    Source: ACMIIL Research, Company

  • 8/7/2019 IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd

    18/21IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd ACMIIL 18

    C O M P A N Y R E P O R TISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    Cash Flow Statement `Mn

    Particulars FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

    Pre tax profit 803.8 5,241.0 5,905.2 7,570.2 9,057.2

    Add

    Depreciation 353.0 603.1 1,479.3 3,421.6 5,948.3

    Interest Exp 1,743.0 2,940.9 5,299.9 8,359.6 10,974.3

    Other Adj. -831.3 -685.0 - - -

    Working capital changes -1,320.8 -3,007.87 -8,733.84 -6,979.48 -3,919.09

    Tax Paid -572.3 -1902.8 -1948.9 -2498.3 -2989.0

    Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 115.0 189.4 125.7

    (Add/(less) shrae of Profit/(Loss) of associate) 0.0 0.0 -49.6 -74.3 -86.1

    Net Cash flow from operating activities 175.3 3,189.2 2,067.2 9,988.9 19,111.4

    Net Cash f low in investment activi ties -183.9 -14,586.0 -20,647.1 -32,451.6 -40,685.4

    Net Cash flow from financing activ ities -299.5 15,225.7 24,087.6 17,812.2 20,329.4

    Net increase /(decrease) in cash -308.1 3,828.9 5,507.8 -4,650.4 -1,244.6

    Op. balance of cash and cash equivalents 1,464.2 1,156.1 5,502.1 11,009.9 6,359.5

    Cl. balance of cash and cash equivalents 1,156.1 4,985.0 11,009.9 6,359.5 5,114.9

    Source: ACMIIL Research, Company

    Ratios

    Particulars FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

    Growth Potential

    Inventory Turnover 55.0 82.4 36.5 36.5 36.5

    Inventory Turnover - Days 6.6 4.4 10.0 10.0 10.0

    A/R Turnover 1.6 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.8

    A/R Turnover - Days 234.5 98.4 105.0 100.0 95.0

    Creditors Turnover 1.4 2.5 3.0 2.9 2.8

    Creditors Turnover - Days 265.5 147.9 120.0 125.0 130.0

    Gross Fixed Asset Turnover 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.4

    Net Fixed Asset Turnover 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7

    Profitability Ratios (%)

    Net Sales Year Change 239% 96% 54% 63% 36%

    Net Income Growth (PAT) -72% 1211% 17% 29% 18%

    Gross Margin 24% 37% 34% 32% 32%

    EBIDTA Growth 16% 193% 44% 53% 34%

    EBIDTA Margin 31% 43% 38% 36% 35%

    Pretax Margin 7% 22% 16% 13% 11%

    PAT Margin 2% 14% 11% 9% 7%

    Return on Assets 1% 7% 5% 4% 4%

    Return on Equity 3% 21% 20% 21% 20%

    Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) 10% 16% 13% 14% 13%

    Debt Factors

    Debt to Assets (%) 64% 64% 74% 77% 79%

    Debt/Equity 2.1 2.0 3.1 3.6 3.9

    CFO to Debt (%) 4% 19% 8% 16% 21%

    Per Share Data

    EPS 1.5 17.7 20.7 26.7 31.4

    P/BV 5.2 3.1 2.6 2.1 1.8Book Value per share 51.7 85.9 104.8 129.8 159.5

    P/E 174.6 15.1 12.9 10.0 8.9

    Dividend per share 1.3 3.0 1.5 1.5 1.5

    Source: ACMIIL Research

  • 8/7/2019 IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd

    19/21IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd ACMIIL 19

    C O M P A N Y R E P O R TISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    ANNEXURE

    The company follows peculiar accounting treatment for the annuity-based projects under Guidance Note on Accounting for Service

    Concession Arrangements by ICAI, which is as follows

    Extensive road network of India - Third Largest in world

    India has one of the largest road networks in the world, aggregating 3.3 million km.s and around 5% of worlds total road network

    consists of 68.93 million km.s (Source: CIA world fact book), it stands third after United States and China, aggregating 6.46

    million km.s and 3.58 million km.s respectively.

    Does the grantor control, through ownership, beneficial entitlement orotherwise, any significant residual interest in the infrastructural

    facilities if remaining at the end of the service arrangement?

    Are the infrastructural facilities constructed or acquired by the operatorfrom a third party for the purpose of the service arrangement?

    Or are the infrastructural facilities used in the arrangement for its entireuseful life?

    Yes

    Yes Yes

    No

    Are the infrastructural facilities existing infrastructural facilities of thegrantor to which the operator is given access for the purpose of the

    service arrangement?

    Operator does not recognise infrastructural facilities as property,plant and equipment or as a leased asset.

    WITHIN THE SCOPE OF THE GUIDANCE NOTE

    Does the operator have a contractual right to receive cash or otherfinancial asset from or at direction of the grantor?

    Does the operator have a contractual right to charge users ofthe public services?

    Operator recognises an intangible asset to the extent that it has acontractual right to receive an intangible asset (AS 28)

    Operator recognises a financial asset to the extent that it has acontractual right to receive cash or another financial asset (AS 30)

    No

    Yes Yes

    Source: guidance note on service concession arrangement by ICAI

    Source: CIA World fact book, ACMIIL Research

    World's Road Network

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    inKm

    Millions

    USA China India Brazil Japan Ca

    nada France RussiaAu

    stralia

    1.75

    1.20 1.04 1.03 0.94 0.81

    3.323.58

    6.479%

    5%5%

    km % of total world network

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    C O M P A N Y R E P O R TISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    National highways contribute only 2% to Indian road network. However, it plays a vital role in handling trafc on Indian roads.

    National highways alone handle 40% of trafc compared to rural roads, which consist 80% of total road network and handles

    only 20% trafc. State roads and major district roads, together handle 40% of trafc.

    Indian Road Network

    Road Type Length (lane

    kms)

    % Share of Total

    Length

    Traffic

    Distribution

    Connectivity

    National Highways/Expressways 144,353 4% 40% Union capital, state capitals, major por ts and foreign highways.

    State Highways 184,649 4% 40% Major centre within states and national highways.

    Major and other District Roads 654,868 14% Main roads and rural roads.

    Rural and Other Roads 2,650,000 78% 20% Production centre, markets, highways and railway station.

    Project Roads Projects like irrigation, power, and mines.

    Urban Roads Intra-city networking.

    Village Roads Village to nearby markets.

    Total 3,633,880 100% 100%

    Source: NHAI, Crisil Research, ACMIIL Research

    Assumption: For State Highways and Major and other District Roads - 40% are two lane, rest are singal lane

    Work plan up to year 2013-14

    Mode of Delivery Year wise length in km.s.

    FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Total % Of total

    BOT (toll) 8,808 5,286 4,192 943 1,477 20,706 56

    4 lane - Phase-III 4,373 4,373 12

    4 lane Phase-II 55 55 0

    6 lane -Phase-V 2,403 1,200 1,477 5,080 14

    Expressways -Phase-VI 436 604 1,040 3

    2 lane with paved shoulders -Phase-III 1,977 1,977 5

    2 lane -Phase-IV 4,086 3,075 339 7,500 20

    4 lane -PhaseVII 681 681 2

    BOT (Annuity) 3,014 4,645 4,000 1,355 - 13,014 35

    4 lane -Phase-III 524 524 1

    4 lane -Phase-II 380 380 1

    J&K -Phase-II 239 239 1

    2 lane with paved shoulders -Phase-III 1,477 1,477 4

    2 lane -Phase-IV 4,645 4,000 1,355 10,000 27

    4 lane -SARDP-NE 394 394 1

    EPC 830 1,161 1,000 339 - 3,330 9

    4 lane -SARDP-NE 330 330 1

    2 lane -PhaseIV 1,161 1,000 339 2,500 7

    2 lane with paved shoulders -Phase-III 500 500 1

    Total 12,652 11,092 9,192 2,637 1,477 37,050 100

    % of total 34 30 25 7 4 100

    Source: Report of the B K Chaturvedi committee on NHDP

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    C O M P A N Y R E P O R TISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    Disclaimer:

    This report is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon such. ACMIIL or

    any of its afliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information

    contained in the report. ACMIIL and/or Promoters of ACMIIL and/or the relatives of promoters and/or employees of ACMIIL may have interest/position, nancial or

    otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency we have incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should

    however not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report

    Disclosure of Interest IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd

    1. Analyst ownership of the stock NO

    2. Broking Relationship with the company covered NO

    3. Investment Banking relationship with the company covered NO

    4. Discretionary Portfolio Management Services NO

    This document has been prepared by the Research Desk of Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd. and is meant for use of the recipient only and is not for

    circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others. It should not be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.

    The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We

    may from time to time have positions in and buy and sell securities referred to herein.

    SEBI Regn No: BSE INB 010607233 (Cash); INF 010607233 (F&O) NSE INB 230607239 (Cash); INF 230607239 (F&O)

    Notes:

    Institutional Sales:Ravindra Nath, Tel: +91 22 2858 3400

    Kirti Bagri, Tel: +91 22 2858 3731

    K.Subramanyam, Tel: +91 22 2858 3739

    Email: [email protected]

    Institutional Dealing:

    Email:[email protected]

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