Evaluation of pollution levels of lead and PCB-153 over Central Asian (CA) countries within CAPACT

project (preliminary results)

Ilia Ilyin, EMEP/MSC-E

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Expected results

Evaluation of air concentrations and total depositions of lead and PCBs over CA countries

Contributions of regions of the Northern Hemisphere to pollution of CA countries by PCBs and contribution of CA countries to the pollution of other regions. Вклады различных регионов

Evaluation of transboundary pollution of CA countries by lead

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

EMEP reion

Regional model Extent – EMEP region Resolution – 50×50 км2

Hemispheric model Extent – Northern

Hemisphere Resolution – 2.5°×2.5°

Model versions

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Multicompartment MSCE-POP model

Atmosphere

Underlying surface

Gusev A., Mantseva E., Shatalov V., and Strukov B. 2005. Regional Multicompartment Model MSCE-POP 5/2005

Detailed desription:

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Emissions of PCB-153 in 2005

Breivik et al, 2007., Science of the Total Environ., 377, p. 296-307.

Input data

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

PCB-153 emissions in different regions of the Northern Hemisphere in 2005

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Eu

rop

e

Am

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So

uth

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sia

Afr

ica

So

urt

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est

. A

sia

Ce

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al A

sia

t /

y

Input data

America

Africa

Russia

Europe

South-Eastern Asia

South-Western

AsiaКазахстан

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Annual mean air concentrations of PCB-153 in 2005

Model results

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Depositions of PCB-153 in 2005

Model results

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Planned: evaluation of transboundary pollution for each of Central Asia countries

Transboundary pollution of Kazakhstan by PCB-153

America

Africa

Russia

Europe

South-Eastern Asia

South-Western

AsiaКазахстан

America4% Africa

1%South-

West. Asia15%

Kazahstan21%

Russia1%

South-East. Asia

26%

Europe32%

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Main processes in MSCE-HM model

Processes:

• Advection • Turbulent diffusion• Wet removal• Dry depositions• Chemical transformations in the atmosphere (Hg)• Wind re-suspension

Detailed description:Travnikov O. and Ilyin I., 2005. Regional model MSCE-HM of heavy metaltransboundary air pollution in Europe. EMEP/MSC-E Technical report 6/2005

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

1 1111

135

EMEP calculation domain

EMEP domain

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Extension of EMEP calculation domain to cover CA countries within CAPACT

1 1591

135

Extended calculation domain Preparation

of input data:

•Land-cover

•Meteorology

•EmissionsKazakhstan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Emissions of lead in Europe and Central Asia in 2005

Region Data sourceAdditional assumptions

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan

TNO’2005Interpolation between 2000 and 2010

Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan

GEIA (1990)Reduction rate from 1990 to 2005 - as for Russia

EuropeOfficial EMEP data of TNO estimates

Remaining Asia and Africa

GEIA (1990)Reduction rate from 1990 to 2005 - as for Turkey

Input data

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Total emission of lead in Central Asian countries in 2005

Input data

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

EM

EP

(wit

ho

ut

Re

ma

inin

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sia

Ru

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ia

Ka

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tan

Uzb

ek

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n

Ta

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ista

n

Tu

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ista

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Ky

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t/y

Spatial distribution of lead emissions in 2005

Input data

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Wind re-suspension Anthropogenic emissions

~ 970 t/y ~ 840 t/y

Comparison of emissions from anthropogenic sources and wind re-

suspension in Central Asian countries (Pb)

Input data

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Annual mean concentrations of lead in air in 2005

Modelling results

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Air concentrations of lead

Total emissions of lead (anthrop. and

wind re-suspension)

Modelling results

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Total depositions of lead in 2005

Modelling results

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Transboundary pollution in Central Asia

Contributions of different sources to depositions in Kazakhstan

Modelling results

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Transboundary pollution in Central Asia

Contributions of different sources to depositions in Kyrgyzstan

Modelling results

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Transboundary pollution in Central Asia

Contributions of different sources to depositions in Tajikistan

Modelling results

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Transboundary pollution in Central Asia

Contributions of different sources to depositions in Turkmenistan

Modelling results

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Transboundary pollution in Central Asia

Contributions of different sources to depositions in Uzbekistan

Modelling results

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Modification of MSCE-HM model to include Central Asian countries into modelling domain

Completed

Preparation of input data for the modified MSCE-HM model

Completed

Calculations of mean annual concentrations of lead and depositions for 2005

Preliminary results

Estimation of annual transboundary transport of lead within CA region for 2005

Preliminary results

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Current status and future plans

Evaluation of mean annual concentrations of PCB-153 in air and total annual depositions over CA region for 2005

Preliminary results

Evaluation of annual transboundary transport of PCB-153 within CA region in 2005

Preliminary results for Kazakhstan

Report in Russian and English; Publishing in the Internet at MSC-E site (www.msceast.org)

September 15

EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan